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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast Friday, July one, getting

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Speaker 2: you set for UFC to seventy six. It's at T

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Speaker 2: Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This UFC Betting podcast, we

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Speaker 2: always bring the usual crew. Former MMA fighter, our MMA

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Speaker 2: analyst at Action Network, Billy Ward, and Shan Zarillo joins

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Speaker 2: us Action Network senior writer Jack of all trades. When

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Speaker 2: it comes to following sports betting, follow both of these

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Speaker 2: guys in the Action Network app for all of their

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Speaker 2: action when it comes to UFC, let's start with the

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Speaker 2: main event. We have a lot to get to. We

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Speaker 2: have our favorite underdog plays, we have props. We're going

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Speaker 2: to discuss a couple of fights here, the main event,

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Speaker 2: the comane, the fight of the night, renel Vers Turn.

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Speaker 2: We'll have a DFS outlook coming up from Billy Ward,

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Speaker 2: and then also get best bets before we wrap up

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Speaker 2: the episode. So we start with the main event Israel

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Speaker 2: Adasanya taking on Jared cannonear the middleweight title fight ATASNYA.

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Speaker 2: Is a beast, Sean Zarrillo, what is your angle on

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Speaker 2: the main event.

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Speaker 3: Is He's phenomenal, but his fights are only as exciting

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Speaker 3: likely as his opponents are willing to make them if

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Speaker 3: they stand at range. Is he can be very low volume.

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Speaker 3: If his opponents come at him, he prefers to fight

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Speaker 3: off the back foot, step back, and counter, and I

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Speaker 3: think his biggest advantage here. There's two biggest advantages or

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Speaker 3: speed in addition to his height and reach, taller and

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Speaker 3: longer fighter, also his footwork. He's going to be able

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Speaker 3: to move around this bigger cage, keep cannon your bay,

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Speaker 3: and keep countering him, probably all day. But Jared does

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Speaker 3: have the more significant power, and when is he fights

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Speaker 3: fighters who have big power, he tends to get scared

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Speaker 3: into low volume affairs. So this could be a relatively boring,

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Speaker 3: low volume fight where the judges have trouble differentiating who

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Speaker 3: won rounds because the striking is solo volume and Izzy's

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Speaker 3: money line as it is is probably a bit wide considering.

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Speaker 3: I generally only like to make fighters big favorites when

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Speaker 3: they have one a huge finishing upside, or two a

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Speaker 3: significant grappling advantage. He has neither of those, and at

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Speaker 3: best he's probably going to win forty nine, forty six

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Speaker 3: or fifty forty five where he doesn't cover any particular

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Speaker 3: round by a significant margin. One thing that he does

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Speaker 3: have going for him is the reach advantage, as I mentioned,

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Speaker 3: and particularly with his legs. He's going to try to

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Speaker 3: kick Cannon near his legs early in the fight. Jared

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Speaker 3: does a good job of checking leg kicks, so that

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Speaker 3: maybe takes away one of his best weapons. If Jared

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Speaker 3: switches to a south past dance, which we've seen him

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Speaker 3: do a lot lately, he can fire kicks to the bodies.

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Speaker 3: Maybe we see more body kicks from Izzy in this matchup,

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Speaker 3: unless Jared decides decides the fight orthodox, which could change

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Speaker 3: up the proceedings, and then I'll get his leg kicked again.

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Speaker 3: So how Jared wants to approach this fight will probably

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Speaker 3: determine how exciting it's going to be. Proven very durable.

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Speaker 3: Even though he does get hurt in most of his fights,

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Speaker 3: he tends to recover pretty quickly. He has the power

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Speaker 3: to knock Izzy out, has power in both hands, and

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Speaker 3: he is the power to keep the optics of the

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Speaker 3: round close. So I don't love the money line on

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Speaker 3: either side. I think Jared is the money line side

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Speaker 3: if you're going to choose between them and Billy. We'll

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Speaker 3: get to that in a minute. But my favorite bet

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Speaker 3: that I found on this fight was Izzy and the

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Speaker 3: over two and a half rounds into the deeper waters

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Speaker 3: more often can definitely slow Jared down with those kicks,

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Speaker 3: potentially put attritional damage on him and finish him late

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Speaker 3: or maybe take a wide decision. So the Izzy and

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Speaker 3: over two and a half rounds propit points bet is

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Speaker 3: minus one forty. I like that prop, but I don't

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Speaker 3: really love any other winning method props the total or

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Speaker 3: the money lines on oither side of this fight.

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Speaker 2: Billy Adasanya has been hyping up the Killa Gorilla, giving

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Speaker 2: him confidence or maybe it's just like reverse Jinks confidence here.

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Speaker 2: But as Sean mentioned, I mean Izzy is the significant

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Speaker 2: favorite on the money line you can find. I'm looking

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Speaker 2: at draft kings now year is a plus three point eighty.

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Speaker 2: What is the angle on the main event.

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Speaker 4: It's funny you mentioned that I've always been just a

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Speaker 4: little bit weirded out when guys are too respectful or

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Speaker 4: too nice to their upcoming opponents.

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Speaker 2: It's normally, like any sport, it's like, come on, you

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Speaker 2: don't really mean that, right, Like.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and you just wonder what the guy's angle is,

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Speaker 4: you know, like I'd rather got you know, when I

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Speaker 4: was fighting. I'd rather get my face and shove me

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Speaker 4: away in or whatever. It's like, Okay, I know what

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Speaker 4: this is.

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Speaker 2: This is what we're expecting to know, So Sean going forward,

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Speaker 2: we got to give Billy a bunch of crap.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but you know, just when they're too nice and

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Speaker 4: all that, it weirds me out a little bit. But

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Speaker 4: the other angle on that is it's strange to a

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Speaker 4: degree because it seems to be looking past him a

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Speaker 4: little bit in terms of Alex Bhea, which we're gonna

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Speaker 4: mention later, and that's one of those angles. And I

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Speaker 4: don't want to be this guy who just calls all

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Speaker 4: the long shot you know, title fights and you know,

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Speaker 4: eventually gets one and feels super excited about it.

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Speaker 5: But I think there's an angle on Cannon here here.

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Speaker 4: You know, first we've got a little bit of Israel

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Speaker 4: possibly looking past him. But I also you know, his

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Speaker 4: only loss was the Yan Blackowitch at two five. But

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Speaker 4: Cannon here is a former heavy. He's gonna be a

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Speaker 4: lot bigger and stronger than is he physically. The reach

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Speaker 4: isn't as significant of a disadvantage in this one. He's

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Speaker 4: got super long arms. You know, it's only a two

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Speaker 4: and a half inchur each disadvantage for him, which is

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Speaker 4: closer than a lot of Israel's opponents have been. And

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Speaker 4: I think he can make this a dirty fight, Shove

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Speaker 4: him into the cage, maybe attempt to take down or two,

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Speaker 4: and then we've got those power optics, just the way

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Speaker 4: fights have been judged lately. If you're the only one

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Speaker 4: who looks like you threw a heavy shot, even if

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Speaker 4: it doesn't land clean, even if you don't set the

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Speaker 4: guy down, a lot of times, that can steal around.

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Speaker 4: So you know, I'm not saying he deserves to be

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Speaker 4: the favorite or anything like that. And I didn't even

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Speaker 4: like his money line odds earlier in the week at

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Speaker 4: about plus three hundred, but three eighty is a pretty

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Speaker 4: good price on that. So I'm gonna take a little

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Speaker 4: bit of a sprinkle on Cannoneer. Just there's enough angles

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Speaker 4: where I think that could go his way.

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Speaker 2: Going to the Cole Maine, Alexander Volkanovski against Max Holloway

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Speaker 2: the featherweight title. Holloway here, Billy's got an opportunity to

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Speaker 2: get back at him right zero to two against his

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Speaker 2: toughest rival to date. How do you factor that in

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Speaker 2: handicapping the co main event.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's interesting.

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Speaker 4: We don't see a lot of trilogy fights where one

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Speaker 4: fighter won both of the first two meetings. And I

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Speaker 4: think how Volkanovski said it, I don't know a while

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Speaker 4: ago and they announced this, fighters like what are we

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Speaker 4: just going to keep fighting until it gets one? Which

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Speaker 4: you know, I don't think they quite do that. But

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Speaker 4: it's interesting because.

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Speaker 2: That's the opposite, that's the coming at you right, no,

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Speaker 2: no hiding right.

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Speaker 4: And you know it's it's interesting from a matchmaking standpoint

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Speaker 4: because if Holloway wins that, you feel like you have to.

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Speaker 5: Run it back. But are these two just gonna fight forever?

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Speaker 5: But the interesting thing.

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Speaker 4: Here is just trying to project who's going to be

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Speaker 4: getting better since the last one. The last one was

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Speaker 4: razor closed. You know a lot of people thought Halloway won.

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Speaker 4: It was an interesting fight where Halloway won two rounds

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Speaker 4: pretty clearly and Volkanovsky just snuck by with three of them,

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Speaker 4: where if we were doing like Pride style scoring, it

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Speaker 4: would have easily been Holloway as the winner. But when

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Speaker 4: we're going round by a round and judges are really

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Speaker 4: reluctant to give ten eights.

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Speaker 5: That kind of produced Volkanovski.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, you know it's it's really just trying to

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Speaker 4: project who's gonna get better versus the last one, and

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Speaker 4: I think it's Volkanovski.

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Speaker 5: He's continued to look better. He's a little bit older, but.

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Speaker 4: He has less years in the sport, He's been in

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Speaker 4: less wars, and he seems to come with better game

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Speaker 4: plans than most of his fights. You know, he looked

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Speaker 4: really good late in the fight making the adjustment last

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Speaker 4: time with switching to some takedowns, and he doesn't need

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Speaker 4: to get the takedown for that to pay off.

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Speaker 5: He just needs Holloway to be thinking about it.

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Speaker 4: You know, Volkanovski started out striking him once he mixed

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Speaker 4: in a takedown or two. I think these guys are

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Speaker 4: sharp enough and are gonna have a good enough game

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Speaker 4: plan that they'll go to that early and not let

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Speaker 4: this one get away from him. But you know, if

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Speaker 4: they do, I'm definitely looking at Volkanovski live after the

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Speaker 4: first round or two. Between the leg kicks and the

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Speaker 4: takedowns and his cardio, he's just a perfect fighter to

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Speaker 4: bet live. You know, he builds as the fight goes on.

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Speaker 4: Those leg kicks do damage going on they're going into

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Speaker 4: the fight, and then my favorite pre fight bet. I

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Speaker 4: played around with a lot of different combinations here, but

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Speaker 4: you can get Volkanovsky in over two and a half

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Speaker 4: at minus one twenty five, and I prefer that versus

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Speaker 4: his decision line just because you can cover some late stoppages.

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Speaker 4: You know, if he puts them down in the fifth

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Speaker 4: just don attrition or the fourth way he did against

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Speaker 4: Chang Sung jong, then you're covered on that and then

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Speaker 4: minus one twenty five you don't have to lay a

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Speaker 4: ton of juice to get there.

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Speaker 2: Volkanowski the Great Holloway is hashtag blessed. The current money

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Speaker 2: line odds Bolkonovski's at minus two hundred Halloway plus one

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Speaker 2: seventy Shonzilla. What's your take on the cobain.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's about where the money line closed for their

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Speaker 3: second matchup, so not a big change in odds, and

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure that Volkanovski necessarily covered that price in

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Speaker 3: their last matchup, did more of the minute winning, but

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Speaker 3: was knocked down in both the first two rounds, which

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Speaker 3: led Halloway to taking those. The debate is if Halloway

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Speaker 3: won any of three four or five. One judge gave

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Speaker 3: him round five. Have seen some people argue that he

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Speaker 3: has a pretty good argument to winning round four. The

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Speaker 3: Vulk did some work to take that round back late

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Speaker 3: in the round. So here's a couple of things that

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Speaker 3: I think have changed in how judging works since the

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Speaker 3: first fight. Takedowns are no longer scored. Takedowns without damage

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Speaker 3: are no longer scored for a fighter. Vulk got three

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Speaker 3: takedowns and ninety seconds of control in that fight, didn't

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Speaker 3: land a single ground strike, so you take that out

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Speaker 3: of the equation. Maybe Holloway swings one of those rounds. Secondly,

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Speaker 3: Holloway is going to be landing more head strikes, Volkanovsky's

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Speaker 3: going to be landing more kicks, So depending on who

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Speaker 3: you have sitting cage side judging the fight, maybe that

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Speaker 3: lends more credence to the Holloway side. And thirdly, Max

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Speaker 3: kind of took his foot off of the gas in

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Speaker 3: those later rounds. Then his next fight, after he came

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Speaker 3: back and landed a UFC record four hundred plus significant

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Speaker 3: strikes against Calvin Cator kept the volume up for all

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Speaker 3: five rounds, kept the volume up for all five rounds

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Speaker 3: against Yaria, Rodriguez. So maybe if Holloway just goes balls

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Speaker 3: to the wall and berserk and keeps the volume up

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Speaker 3: for over the course of twenty five minutes, he's able

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Speaker 3: to steal one of those final three rounds as well,

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Speaker 3: but he probably, like Billy said, needs to win those

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Speaker 3: first two rounds in order to win the fight. Volkanovsky

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Speaker 3: does seem to get hurt in all this fights. Max

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Speaker 3: isn't a particularly big finisher, though I see this fight

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Speaker 3: probably going the full twenty five Again, don't see value

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Speaker 3: on the goes the distance prop considering how high paced

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Speaker 3: of a fight it's likely going to be. And Halloway

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Speaker 3: even got hurt in that Ura Rodriguez fight as well,

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Speaker 3: never been knocked down in his career. Volkanovski knocked down

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Speaker 3: pretty consistently, like I said, gets hurting almost every fight,

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Speaker 3: but manages to recover. So this should be another close

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Speaker 3: and competitive fight. I see it going to decision again.

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Speaker 3: The question is who's able to secure those three rounds.

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Speaker 3: Certainly agree that Volkanovski should be favored, but maybe it

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Speaker 3: should be closer to forty or forty five percent on

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Speaker 3: the Holloway side instead of about thirty five percent where

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Speaker 3: you're getting him. So Halloway by decision at plus three

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Speaker 3: ten is a smaller bed for me. But if this

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Speaker 3: goes to the scorecards, I want plus money on the

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Speaker 3: Holloway side, and I want plus money on whoever I

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Speaker 3: can get in general on this what would be a

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Speaker 3: close in competitive fight. So Halloway by decision plus three

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Speaker 3: ten and made that line closer to a round plus

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Speaker 3: two seventy five. You could also bet his money line

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Speaker 3: it where it is currently, but I see roughly the

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Speaker 3: same value on his decision prop as that he was moneylined.

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Speaker 2: Our two seven are UFC two to seventy six betting

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Speaker 2: preview rolls on twelve fights or if he was canceled

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Speaker 2: a while back. In case you were wondering, we'll have

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Speaker 2: more on the full slate when we get to the

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Speaker 2: DFS preview. Next up, favorite underdog plays and as we

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Speaker 2: always encourage, no matter the sport, no matter the event,

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Speaker 2: shop those lines, Billy, We will go to you first.

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Speaker 5: Yeah. Right now, I'm looking at Gabe Green.

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Speaker 4: He's about plus one fifty depending on where you're looking,

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Speaker 4: and he's taken on Ian Gary, who's kind of had

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Speaker 4: some attention behind him as one of the up and

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Speaker 4: coming prospects for the USC. You know, he's Irish, which

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Speaker 4: they seem to be into given how well Connor McGregor

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Speaker 4: worked out for him. But I really wasn't impressed, especially

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Speaker 4: in his last fight against Darien Weeks. You know, he

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Speaker 4: fought it real cautiously, you know, landed some shots, didn't

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Speaker 4: really mix in much of anything else. And even his

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Speaker 4: UFC debut he ended up winning by first round knockout,

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Speaker 4: but he didn't look super great before that, And just

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Speaker 4: based on his record and what we saw out of

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Speaker 4: him and Cage Warriors, I don't really see any grappling

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Speaker 4: upside for him here. So if he's not gonna come

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Speaker 4: out and hunt for a finish on the feet really

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Speaker 4: aggressively and he doesn't have the grappling upside, that just

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Speaker 4: goes back to Sewan said in the main event, where

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Speaker 4: you know, if you're gonna better favorite, he needs at

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Speaker 4: least one of those two things, and I'm not seeing it.

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Speaker 4: So with Cabe Green getting the line he is, he's

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Speaker 4: a super active striker, He's fought really tough competition. He

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Speaker 4: apparently got laser eye surgery like before his last fight

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Speaker 4: and could only see out of one eye very well

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Speaker 4: before that, I don't know this something I heard this week,

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Speaker 4: no idea how much that matters. But he's the more

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Speaker 4: active striker, he throws heavier, and he has most of

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Speaker 4: the grappling upside here.

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Speaker 5: So I really like him at plus one fifty.

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Speaker 2: Even with one eye.

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Speaker 4: Well, he's got two eyes now, I really like him

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Speaker 4: with the two eyes. Now if you just had the one,

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Speaker 4: I don't know fair enough.

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Speaker 2: I'm curious what the line would change to if he

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Speaker 2: only had one. But that doesn't matter anymore because he

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Speaker 2: got Lasa good Grid. Sean Zarillo going to the underdogs,

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Speaker 2: and please Sewn feel free to also transition into our

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Speaker 2: fight of the night because you're also going to take

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Speaker 2: that angle as well.

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Speaker 3: Well. I'll save my favorite underdog for our Friday the Night,

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Speaker 3: which we're going to talk about very shortly. So let

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Speaker 3: me give out an underdog by decision similar to what

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Speaker 3: I did last week at a crazy price. This will

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Speaker 3: lead into our favor or prop section, maybe the Andre

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Speaker 3: Muniz you'r Ryah Hall fight. Now, Billy and I would

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Speaker 3: both agree that Munez is a way better fighter than

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Speaker 3: Hudolf Waviira from last week, but this fight sets up

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Speaker 3: with a similar dynamic where you have a grappler who

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Speaker 3: is probably going to get a round one finish via submission,

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Speaker 3: but if he doesn't, the fight could get a little crazy.

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Speaker 3: And I think that's what you have here with Munie's

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Speaker 3: three consecutive first round submissions. If you look back to

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Speaker 3: his Contender Series fight other fights earlier in his career,

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Speaker 3: when he isn't able to get that first round finish,

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Speaker 3: it gets a little wonky because he doesn't have the

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Speaker 3: best cardio, doesn't necessarily have the best chin, and your

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Speaker 3: Iahol has the type of crazy power where he could

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Speaker 3: put any man out. That said, I actually like this

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Speaker 3: fight to go to a decision. You can get around

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Speaker 3: plus three to fifty out there. I projected this closer

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Speaker 3: to plus three hundred. I said, a similar dynamic to

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Speaker 3: the fight last week with Curtis and Vieira, where the

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Speaker 3: line just got too crazy towards the finishing side. The

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Speaker 3: middleweight averages closer to sixty percent on finishes. The line

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Speaker 3: is telling you this is going to end around seventy

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Speaker 3: to seventy five percent inside the distance, So I think

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Speaker 3: it's just floated up a little bit too high. Plus

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Speaker 3: three to fifty to go to a decision is an

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Speaker 3: underdog bet technically, but also Haul to win by decision

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Speaker 3: of plus ten ten to one. I think it's interesting

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Speaker 3: as well. If Mouni's can't get him down multiple times

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Speaker 3: for multiple rounds, Hall will be landing the more effective strikes,

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Speaker 3: probably mock knocks Muni's out if he's able to land

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Speaker 3: the more effective strikes, but if he doesn't, I could

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Speaker 3: see him winning a close split.

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Speaker 5: Decision as well.

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Speaker 3: So ten to one on Haul by decision projected that

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Speaker 3: closer to eight to one and the fight to go

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Speaker 3: to a decision around plus three to fifty are both

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Speaker 3: smaller bets for me, but I think BET's worth taking.

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Speaker 3: And then Haul live after round one. We saw him

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Speaker 3: survive on his back for extended stretches against Antonio Carlos

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Speaker 3: Junior in a very similar stylistic matchup, so Mini is

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Speaker 3: most likely to win a round one, but if he doesn't,

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Speaker 3: and Hall has never been submitted, he's shown the he

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Speaker 3: con survive against grapplers, I think this fight gets really interesting.

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Speaker 2: So our fight of the night is brag Riddell the

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Speaker 2: Jalen Turner. Zilla will go right back to you here,

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Speaker 2: you're in the youre going to the dog.

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Speaker 3: I am brad Redel plus one twenty five. Now I

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Speaker 3: expect that Jalen Turner will probably win round one, and

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Speaker 3: a similar dynamic where I expect if Turner doesn't win

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Speaker 3: in round one, he's probably going to tire out and

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Speaker 3: Ridelle starts to take over. Turner is a huge lightweight,

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Speaker 3: definitely cuts down a lot of weight to get to

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Speaker 3: one fifty five. But when you cut that much weight,

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Speaker 3: you tend not to be able to sustain it. And

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Speaker 3: he also gets a bit crazy trying to finish people,

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Speaker 3: which SAPs that gas tank further. So Radella plus one

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Speaker 3: twenty five is a small bed for me. Radell by

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Speaker 3: decision of plus three eighty is a small bed for me,

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Speaker 3: and then I'm also going to look live after round one.

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Speaker 3: On the ridel side, he's just a very accomplished fighter,

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Speaker 3: very well rounded fighter. Could actually see him getting some

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Speaker 3: takedowns here even though he is the much smaller man.

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Speaker 3: He's shown some good double leg takedowns pushing people up

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Speaker 3: against the fence. As Turner tires, those takedowns should come easier.

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Speaker 3: But Riddell is the striking coach for City Kickboxing very

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Speaker 3: very accomplished striker. Tons of week hie fights, kickboxing fights.

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Speaker 3: Guys just very well rounded, and I think turn who

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Speaker 3: has this huge finishing upside, is the one taking the

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Speaker 3: step up in competition. So Jalen Turner very exciting, interesting lightweight,

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Speaker 3: certainly love watching his fights, but Ddell just a bit

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Speaker 3: more well rounded.

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Speaker 2: Billy, your angle does reflect Turner here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And you know, I think Sean and I to

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Speaker 4: an extent, see this one the same way. I just

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Speaker 4: think Turner eventually gets that finish, and it's really for

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Speaker 4: me because he does have so much submission upside too.

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Speaker 4: You know, he's won a few fights by submission in

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Speaker 4: the UFC a few before that, So I agree with Sean.

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Speaker 4: I think we could see Red Riddell take him to

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Speaker 4: the ground, but I don't know that that's going to

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Speaker 4: work out for him.

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Speaker 5: He's got super.

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Speaker 4: Long arms, long and you know, long reach. That makes

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00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:40,600
Speaker 4: it a lot easier to wrap up chokes, triangles, that

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Speaker 4: kind of thing. And for a guy who's more of

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Speaker 4: a striker like Riddell, if he shoots in, he could

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Speaker 4: get caught with a guillotine going in, get his back taken,

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Speaker 4: get triangled, all those things. Are in play, so when

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Speaker 4: you can get him at plus money plus one thirty

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Speaker 4: five on the inside the distance line, I don't really

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Speaker 4: see Turner lasting to win this by decision, so it's

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Speaker 4: a pretty binary fight. I think if he wins it's

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Speaker 4: inside the distance. You can get that at plus That

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Speaker 4: feels like an easy one for me.

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Speaker 2: Onto our favorite props, same messages before shop the lines

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Speaker 2: before Saturday twelve fights, Zurillo, what's our favorite prop for

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Speaker 2: the weekend?

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Speaker 3: Sean O'Malley by decision. I don't really understand why his

390
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Speaker 3: finishing odds are lower than his decision line. Pedro Munos

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Speaker 3: is extremely durable, never been finished in his MMA career,

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Speaker 3: very tough nose guy, but there's a big reach discrepancy here.

393
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Speaker 3: Muno is going to be coming up short on a

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Speaker 3: lot of his punches. O'Malley the faster striker, taller and

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Speaker 3: longer fighter. The key is whether O'Malley gets hurt by muno's'

396
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Speaker 3: his leg kicks. So O'Malley's shown some weaknesses to the

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Speaker 3: leg in the past, had to fight stop against Marlon

398
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Speaker 3: Vera because he's his leg basically shut off from calf kicks,

399
00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:48,200
Speaker 3: had his leg broken in another fight where he continued

400
00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:51,720
Speaker 3: to fight and actually ended up winning, but O'Malley by

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Speaker 3: decision around plus two hundred. I made that prop closer

402
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Speaker 3: to plus one seventy five. I'm just surprised that his

403
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Speaker 3: decision line is higher than his finish props considering how

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Speaker 3: durable Munos is. So I actually see this fight going

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Speaker 3: the full fifteen minutes unless Munio's finishes at first. O'Malley

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Speaker 3: on the scorecards. Plus two hundred is my favorite prop.

407
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Speaker 3: Bet all right, Billy, what he got for a prop?

408
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Speaker 4: Yeah, just to comment on Chan's real quick, I think

409
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Speaker 4: it's just the hype on O'Malley has just gotten so

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Speaker 4: out of hand that everyone's like, oh, he's definitely gonna

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Speaker 4: knock him out, Like he couldn't even sit down Chris Mautino.

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Speaker 4: You know, they called it a TKO, But if that's

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Speaker 4: Pedro Muno is in there, they probably let that one

414
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Speaker 4: even keep going. So I'm totally with Shawn on that one.

415
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Speaker 4: But I'm targeting the old guy fight. We've got Donald

416
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Speaker 4: SERRONI maybe actually fighting this week after continuing to get

417
00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,359
Speaker 4: that canceled on fight day, but this time he's facing

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Speaker 4: Jim Miller who's knocked out two people within the last year.

419
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Speaker 4: He's also thirty eight, but you know, he's still got

420
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Speaker 4: big power. And Serroni's a notoriously slow starter who is

421
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Speaker 4: just no chin anymore for a guy who likes to

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Speaker 4: swing wild and get it in there and mix it up.

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Speaker 4: He's Serroni is much taller, but he only has a

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Speaker 4: two inch reach advantage, so I think that's not really

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Speaker 4: that big of a factor. And yeah, I mean, he's

426
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Speaker 4: been knocked out and I think three or four of

427
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Speaker 4: his last five or six fights. But you can get

428
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Speaker 4: Jim Miller by knockout at plus three ten on FanDuel,

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Speaker 4: which just seems insane.

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Speaker 5: You know.

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Speaker 4: I also like the first round prop, so if these

432
00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:12,040
Speaker 4: lines move by the time anyone's listening to it, whichever,

433
00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:14,480
Speaker 4: you're getting better ods on between knockout and first round

434
00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:16,360
Speaker 4: is how I'm playing this. But yeah, I just can't

435
00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:18,080
Speaker 4: believe it's gone this far. I don't really see Jim

436
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,520
Speaker 4: Miller winning a decision. I don't think he makes it

437
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 4: the whole way against Serroni, but I think he puts

438
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:24,480
Speaker 4: him away fairly quickly. And I don't really see it

439
00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:27,200
Speaker 4: being a submission either, So.

440
00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:28,760
Speaker 3: So Billy's point. I do like SERENI by decision around

441
00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 3: plus five fifty, very very very small bed for me.

442
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:32,840
Speaker 3: I do not like betting Cowboy, and I do agree

443
00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,440
Speaker 3: with Billy that he's probably shot. But I think fighting

444
00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:38,000
Speaker 3: at welterwait maybe suits him a little bit better. I

445
00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:41,119
Speaker 3: think he's probably decide if you're looking just at money lines.

446
00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:43,600
Speaker 3: I agree with Billy's assessment, probably Miller in round one,

447
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,399
Speaker 3: but if this extends, throny live after round one and

448
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:48,120
Speaker 3: then by decision at plus five to fifty, I think

449
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:49,199
Speaker 3: is the other way to play it.

450
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:54,520
Speaker 2: Okay, time for our DFS preview of the weekend twelve fights.

451
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 2: Is he out of Sonia? Is your most expensive fighter?

452
00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:00,520
Speaker 2: Billy at ninety four hundred. By the way, O'Malley the

453
00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 2: nickname Sugar, got to pay up for him. He's ninety

454
00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:06,440
Speaker 2: three hundred. And then per usually you get your five

455
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:08,399
Speaker 2: fighters nine k or more, and then you've got to

456
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:10,399
Speaker 2: work your way to the eight k seven K range

457
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:13,920
Speaker 2: and all the way down to the high six thousand range.

458
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,879
Speaker 2: What are what is our approach from a DFS standpoint

459
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:19,680
Speaker 2: for GPPs in cash?

460
00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, for cash, it's an interesting one because

461
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:24,359
Speaker 4: we've got the two title fights, which I think, you know,

462
00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 4: generally the strategy here is just.

463
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:27,240
Speaker 5: Jam all four of those guys in there.

464
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:29,159
Speaker 4: But I don't know if if that's going to be

465
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:30,879
Speaker 4: as popular this week because out of Signya he's put

466
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:34,679
Speaker 4: up some pretty disappointing draftings scores considering his salary. And

467
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,679
Speaker 4: then we've got Muni's and O'Malley right there. You know,

468
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,800
Speaker 4: in the Fantasy Lab projections, we've got both Muni's and

469
00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:43,160
Speaker 4: O'Malley projected for more points than out of Signia, even

470
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 4: though those fights are only three rounds.

471
00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:45,600
Speaker 5: Some of that is.

472
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,879
Speaker 4: Based on the stoppagods getting out of hand on those guys.

473
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:50,040
Speaker 4: But still so I can see, you know, a route

474
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 4: towards fading Izzy. And I also think he's just a

475
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,239
Speaker 4: real bad GPP play. I don't think he comes out

476
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 4: very aggressively or throws a high volume. So unless he

477
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:58,719
Speaker 4: gets the early stoppage, it's really hard to see him

478
00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,199
Speaker 4: being in the top lineup. So you know, it's a

479
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 4: twelve flight card. As you pointed out, we drop someone,

480
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:05,639
Speaker 4: it's just gonna be another one. With some of these

481
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:07,719
Speaker 4: huge contests, we're trying to stay unique is the name

482
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 4: of the game, and you can definitely do that if

483
00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 4: you're playing Holloway, Like you know, Shawn's big on Holloway

484
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 4: this week. I think Cannoneer's got a point, got a angle,

485
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:17,920
Speaker 4: So if you're playing one of those guys, it's really

486
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,240
Speaker 4: easy to save some salary, leave some salary on the table.

487
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,120
Speaker 4: And I also think stacking Holloway and Volkanowski just given

488
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 4: the output between those two guys is a good strategy.

489
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:28,919
Speaker 4: Hallowe in his last fight didn't actually put up a

490
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 4: great DFS scores, but neither of the knockdown Sean reference

491
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:33,200
Speaker 4: were scored that way by DraftKings.

492
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 5: I think they both should have been.

493
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:36,400
Speaker 4: That would have been an extra twenty points on Holloway

494
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 4: and that fight would have made the optimal lineup with

495
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:40,679
Speaker 4: both of them in there last time if that was

496
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 4: the case. But yeah, you know, the big question I

497
00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 4: think is whether you're going with Attasannia and Mooni's or

498
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 4: O'Malley or two of those three. I know Sean's big

499
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:49,639
Speaker 4: on both of those to go to a decision or

500
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 4: not big, but season angle to those going to a decision.

501
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 4: So you got anything for me on those top fights, Sean.

502
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, Halloway's volume, I think kind of forces you to

503
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 3: put him in the lineup at an underdog. I actually

504
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 3: think of maybe avoiding Izzy and cannonear and what could

505
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 3: be a very low volume fight over the course of

506
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 3: twenty five minutes. Maybe a good strategy.

507
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 2: Just looking at Volkanovsky forty three DraftKings points the last

508
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 2: time they met July eleventh, and then on the other side, yeah, Volkonovsky, yeah,

509
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:23,639
Speaker 2: forty three points, and I'm just looking.

510
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,200
Speaker 5: For Halloway forty three right the last time.

511
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 2: Halloway, would I say, Volkonovski I pod yes, Yeah.

512
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:30,439
Speaker 4: So if he gets the sixty three with the two

513
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 4: knockdowns he should have had, that's a real good score

514
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 4: for the sailary he had done. And now if he's

515
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 4: at forty three and they don't score those, you're pretty disappointed.

516
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 4: So it's interesting how some of those weird scoring things

517
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 4: can can really mess it up.

518
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 2: In Volkanovsky last three fights has hit one hundred plus

519
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 2: Fantasy points one h three against Holloway in July of

520
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 2: twenty twenty, previous fight in December of nineteen ninety four. Yeah, hey,

521
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 2: very good. So that's always good stuff. Differentiation is important

522
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:57,360
Speaker 2: when it comes to the DFS lands.

523
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 3: And probably Fanning O'Malley as well. You know, he's going

524
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,479
Speaker 3: to be a very very highly owned fighter, and like

525
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 3: I said, I expect him to win a decision. I

526
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:05,439
Speaker 3: don't necessarily see him getting that finished bonus.

527
00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 2: Okay, before we wrap up the Action Network podcast UFC

528
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 2: two to seventy six betting preview, we need best bets.

529
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 2: We will go to Sean Zarrillo first.

530
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 3: Driguez Duplessis against Brad Tavares. I mentioned before the middleweight

531
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 3: average for finishes around sixty percent, and Duplessis has one

532
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,119
Speaker 3: hundred percent of his fights and inside the distance for

533
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 3: his career. All sixteen of his wins and both of

534
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 3: his losses have been inside the distance. Brad Tavara is

535
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 3: not the biggest finisher. Duplesi is a huge finisher, and

536
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 3: if he doesn't finish his fights, he tends to gas out.

537
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,360
Speaker 3: So I could actually see Taveraes putting them away late.

538
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 3: Bet this line at around to pick him price to

539
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 3: the end inside the distance. I got minus one ten.

540
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,679
Speaker 3: It's still around minus one twenty five. I think this

541
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 3: line should be at least minus one fifty based on

542
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 3: the divisional average. If not higher in my opinion, closer

543
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 3: to minus one sixty five. So do plus and tavares

544
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,400
Speaker 3: to end inside the distance. You could also play dupleus

545
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 3: to win inside the distance himself at around US one

546
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 3: thirty five plus one forty. I would make that line

547
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 3: closer to plus one ten.

548
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,880
Speaker 2: Okay, Billy best bet for UFC two seventy six.

549
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm getting greedy with the pay per view. I

550
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,159
Speaker 4: got two weeks, I got two this week. But uh,

551
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 4: first one I'm looking at is Alex Pajea against Sean Strickland.

552
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 5: This line's bounced around a little bit.

553
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 4: I saw Pajey as much as like minus one fifteen

554
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:20,679
Speaker 4: minus one twenty.

555
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 5: He's currently even money, and.

556
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 4: He's obviously the better striker here right like he was,

557
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:28,679
Speaker 4: you know, Glory champion knocked out is in kickboxing and

558
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 4: Strickland is mostly known as a striker. He's got some

559
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,159
Speaker 4: grappling upside, but he also just seems like the kind

560
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 4: of guy who's more than willing to stand there in

561
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,440
Speaker 4: trade leather and try to, you know, prove how tough

562
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 4: he is against clearly a better opponent in that arena.

563
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,920
Speaker 5: So Alex Pajey at even money. I also like Pejeya's

564
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 5: knockout odds.

565
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 4: I think Strickland kind of just forces him to be

566
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 4: a little bit more aggressive than he was in the

567
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 4: last fight. But even money, as long as it's still there,

568
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 4: I'm taking that, and then the other one, I'm just

569
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 4: fading another old guy. We got Brian Barberina fighting Robbie Lawler.

570
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 4: Robbie is forty. The only fight he has won in

571
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 4: the last five years was against Nick Diaz, who clearly

572
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 4: didn't want to be there. Before that, it was Donald Seroni,

573
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 4: who's also on the twilight of his career. You know,

574
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 4: if these guys are in their primes, Robbie obviously just

575
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 4: murders Barberina. But Barbarina is thirty three, he's on a

576
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 4: two fight win streak. Just beat up another old guy

577
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 4: in Matt Brown, even though that was a very close fight,

578
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 4: and you can get him at even money as well.

579
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 4: I think it should be a pretty significant favorite here.

580
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 4: So both of those at even money are where I'm going.

581
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:29,439
Speaker 2: Billy with hot takes on the olds positive end slightly

582
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 2: negative here you go, all right, that is gonna do

583
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 2: it for your UFC two seventy six betting preview. Here

584
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,640
Speaker 2: in the Action Network Podcast. We're with you every Friday, when,

585
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,119
Speaker 2: of course, there is an event coming on Saturday. We

586
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 2: will be with you for the next couple of weeks

587
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 2: here on the Action Network Podcast for Billy Ward and

588
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 2: Sean Zarrillo. Brendan Glasheen, thanks for tuning in. Best of

589
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,439
Speaker 2: luck this weekend. Everyone, be safe, have a great holiday weekend,

590
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 2: and we will join you again next week.

591
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 4: The Baby