1 00:00:15,356 --> 00:00:23,836 Speaker 1: Pushkin from Pushkin Industries. This is Deep Background, the show 2 00:00:23,876 --> 00:00:26,876 Speaker 1: where we explore the stories behind the stories in the news. 3 00:00:27,276 --> 00:00:30,836 Speaker 1: I'm Noah Feldman. Since four in the morning on the 4 00:00:30,916 --> 00:00:33,796 Speaker 1: day after Donald Trump was elected, it's been clear to 5 00:00:33,876 --> 00:00:37,476 Speaker 1: me that democracy in the United States is facing a 6 00:00:37,596 --> 00:00:40,636 Speaker 1: kind of stress test. In the months that follow that 7 00:00:41,036 --> 00:00:44,036 Speaker 1: bregsit kicked in and we discovered that the United States 8 00:00:44,116 --> 00:00:47,676 Speaker 1: is not alone in this regard. Indeed, those who care 9 00:00:47,716 --> 00:00:51,156 Speaker 1: a lot about democracy worldwide have worried that everywhere in 10 00:00:51,196 --> 00:00:56,076 Speaker 1: the globe democracy is in retreat, under attack, and under pressure. 11 00:00:57,196 --> 00:01:01,076 Speaker 1: To discuss these challenges that democracy faces today, I'm joined 12 00:01:01,076 --> 00:01:05,316 Speaker 1: by David Runsman, who's professor of Politics at Cambridge University. 13 00:01:05,836 --> 00:01:09,356 Speaker 1: He's the author of two highly relevant books, one called 14 00:01:09,436 --> 00:01:12,716 Speaker 1: How Democracy Ends, published in the United States in twenty 15 00:01:12,916 --> 00:01:16,756 Speaker 1: and eighteen, and the other Where Power Stops The Making 16 00:01:16,796 --> 00:01:19,796 Speaker 1: and Unmaking of Presidents and Prime Ministers, which is coming 17 00:01:19,796 --> 00:01:23,916 Speaker 1: out in two and nineteen. Professor Runsman is also the 18 00:01:23,956 --> 00:01:27,596 Speaker 1: host of the Talking Politics podcast produced by the London 19 00:01:27,636 --> 00:01:30,836 Speaker 1: Review of Books. David, thank you so much for joining me. 20 00:01:30,996 --> 00:01:35,116 Speaker 1: Thank you very much. You've written a fascinating book called 21 00:01:35,356 --> 00:01:40,156 Speaker 1: How Democracy Ends, in which you characterize democracy is having 22 00:01:40,236 --> 00:01:45,556 Speaker 1: hit a midlife crisis. I am somewhere in midlife myself. 23 00:01:45,636 --> 00:01:48,156 Speaker 1: I don't know if you count yourself in that same 24 00:01:48,476 --> 00:01:51,996 Speaker 1: category of life, But tell us something about why you 25 00:01:52,036 --> 00:01:54,116 Speaker 1: think democracy is hitting a midlife crisis and what you 26 00:01:54,196 --> 00:01:57,356 Speaker 1: think a midlife crisis looks like. So I think, full disclosure, 27 00:01:57,396 --> 00:02:00,596 Speaker 1: I am. And people always say to me that presumably 28 00:02:00,596 --> 00:02:04,076 Speaker 1: I'm writing about myself and I'm just transposing it onto democracy, 29 00:02:04,116 --> 00:02:06,716 Speaker 1: and I don't think I am. But the reason I 30 00:02:06,836 --> 00:02:10,116 Speaker 1: characterized it like that is I do think we're in 31 00:02:10,156 --> 00:02:13,676 Speaker 1: the middle of this story, particularly in the older democracy. 32 00:02:13,756 --> 00:02:16,316 Speaker 1: So I don't think it's a midlife crisis in Hungary 33 00:02:17,356 --> 00:02:20,796 Speaker 1: because that democracy is too young. But the democracies that 34 00:02:20,836 --> 00:02:24,156 Speaker 1: are really well established since the Second World War are, 35 00:02:24,196 --> 00:02:26,876 Speaker 1: in political terms, in a kind of middle age. And 36 00:02:27,036 --> 00:02:31,876 Speaker 1: my feeling about a midlife crisis is that it's characteristic 37 00:02:31,956 --> 00:02:34,316 Speaker 1: is a desire to change and at the same time 38 00:02:34,356 --> 00:02:38,036 Speaker 1: a real resistance to change because we're comfortable, because we're 39 00:02:38,036 --> 00:02:41,636 Speaker 1: well off, because we're prosperous, because we're settled in our ways. 40 00:02:41,916 --> 00:02:44,436 Speaker 1: Because actually a lot of what we are angry about 41 00:02:44,436 --> 00:02:47,636 Speaker 1: we're also deeply familiar with and it's that kind of 42 00:02:47,716 --> 00:02:50,436 Speaker 1: quality to our democracies, and by our I mean mine 43 00:02:50,476 --> 00:02:54,756 Speaker 1: and yours, I mean particularly Brexit democracy and Trump democracy. 44 00:02:55,316 --> 00:02:57,076 Speaker 1: There is a lot of acting out going on here, 45 00:02:57,116 --> 00:02:59,476 Speaker 1: but it's middle aged acting out. It's not wild young 46 00:02:59,516 --> 00:03:03,436 Speaker 1: person acting out. It's that desire for something new, something 47 00:03:03,516 --> 00:03:09,836 Speaker 1: maybe exciting, along with a really deep reluctance to embrace newness. 48 00:03:09,836 --> 00:03:13,996 Speaker 1: Means so we kick away at our system, we were 49 00:03:14,036 --> 00:03:16,516 Speaker 1: angry with it, we shake it up a bit, but 50 00:03:16,716 --> 00:03:20,236 Speaker 1: deep down we don't want anything different. May I ask 51 00:03:20,276 --> 00:03:24,036 Speaker 1: about the midlife their model? You mentioned the Second World War, 52 00:03:24,116 --> 00:03:27,556 Speaker 1: but both British and American democracies, at least at their 53 00:03:27,596 --> 00:03:30,716 Speaker 1: present scales, are really products of in the middle of 54 00:03:30,716 --> 00:03:33,756 Speaker 1: the nineteenth century, and so they've been actually around for 55 00:03:34,116 --> 00:03:36,276 Speaker 1: a good long time, not just since the Second World War. 56 00:03:36,276 --> 00:03:38,316 Speaker 1: If one thinks of post World War two democracy, is 57 00:03:38,316 --> 00:03:41,396 Speaker 1: one thinks of Germany and of Japan perhaps some of 58 00:03:41,396 --> 00:03:45,676 Speaker 1: the other European democracies. Can we really be described yours 59 00:03:45,756 --> 00:03:48,276 Speaker 1: or mind as being in midlife or are we at 60 00:03:48,276 --> 00:03:51,596 Speaker 1: the edge of our dotage? As as a North Korean 61 00:03:51,596 --> 00:03:55,116 Speaker 1: had to say about my president, it's a really good question. 62 00:03:55,196 --> 00:03:58,036 Speaker 1: I think it's a mixture of both, and that some 63 00:03:58,116 --> 00:04:03,316 Speaker 1: of the characteristics of German democracy or Japanese democracy we're 64 00:04:03,316 --> 00:04:09,116 Speaker 1: in the same historical arc, so mass franchise, mass communication, 65 00:04:09,276 --> 00:04:14,876 Speaker 1: and professionalized political party democracy. It's a twentieth century product. 66 00:04:15,556 --> 00:04:17,756 Speaker 1: In the British and American case, you can probably take 67 00:04:17,796 --> 00:04:19,276 Speaker 1: it back to the First World War. I don't think 68 00:04:19,276 --> 00:04:22,676 Speaker 1: you can take it back much further. What makes ours 69 00:04:22,756 --> 00:04:26,676 Speaker 1: different is that that form of democracy was channeled through 70 00:04:26,796 --> 00:04:31,036 Speaker 1: institutions and institutional arrangements that are much older, and in 71 00:04:31,076 --> 00:04:33,756 Speaker 1: the case of the British State, maybe it goes all 72 00:04:33,796 --> 00:04:35,836 Speaker 1: the way back to sixteen eighty eight. In the American State, 73 00:04:35,836 --> 00:04:38,836 Speaker 1: it goes back the end of the eighteenth century. So 74 00:04:38,876 --> 00:04:44,276 Speaker 1: our institutions have that really elderly feel to them. The 75 00:04:44,316 --> 00:04:48,116 Speaker 1: Electoral College, the House of Lords, the way the British 76 00:04:48,156 --> 00:04:51,276 Speaker 1: Parliament operates often strikes many people in the twenty first 77 00:04:51,276 --> 00:04:55,636 Speaker 1: century is feeling not just old but antique. And yet 78 00:04:55,796 --> 00:04:59,516 Speaker 1: some of the qualities that make our democracy democracy. Everyone 79 00:04:59,516 --> 00:05:03,556 Speaker 1: gets a vote at election time, people try and communicate 80 00:05:03,556 --> 00:05:08,196 Speaker 1: with the broadest possible cross section of a literate and 81 00:05:08,596 --> 00:05:12,956 Speaker 1: at some level informed population. That's a more recent thing, 82 00:05:13,356 --> 00:05:16,436 Speaker 1: but it's still relatively old. I mean, even if you 83 00:05:16,476 --> 00:05:18,476 Speaker 1: take it back a hundred years, say in the British 84 00:05:18,516 --> 00:05:21,756 Speaker 1: or American case, you take it back to nineteen eighteen, 85 00:05:23,276 --> 00:05:26,276 Speaker 1: a hundred years for a political system, it doesn't make 86 00:05:26,316 --> 00:05:30,436 Speaker 1: it decrepit, but it means that it has outlasted the 87 00:05:30,516 --> 00:05:34,476 Speaker 1: living memory of any human being who currently inhabits it, 88 00:05:34,716 --> 00:05:38,356 Speaker 1: so no one can remember anything different, and that's what 89 00:05:38,476 --> 00:05:40,716 Speaker 1: gives it that kind of middling quality. To me, it's 90 00:05:40,716 --> 00:05:44,316 Speaker 1: not dying. Ending is something very different from dying. Now 91 00:05:44,396 --> 00:05:46,476 Speaker 1: you can end in an open way. There is something 92 00:05:47,076 --> 00:05:50,516 Speaker 1: called being open ended, and ending is also about transition, 93 00:05:50,556 --> 00:05:53,836 Speaker 1: whereas death is about death. So we're in the middle. 94 00:05:54,156 --> 00:05:57,596 Speaker 1: But I think over that hundred year period that combination 95 00:05:57,676 --> 00:06:00,396 Speaker 1: of a way of doing politics where the parties are 96 00:06:00,436 --> 00:06:02,436 Speaker 1: the same. So in your country, in my country they 97 00:06:02,476 --> 00:06:06,476 Speaker 1: have the same names. The Labor Party, our current opposition party, 98 00:06:07,236 --> 00:06:10,396 Speaker 1: is something that was born roughly a hundred years ago 99 00:06:10,436 --> 00:06:15,556 Speaker 1: as a mass professional political party Labor, Conservative, Republican Democrat. 100 00:06:15,636 --> 00:06:18,276 Speaker 1: Of course, these parties have been through changes over this period, 101 00:06:18,796 --> 00:06:22,396 Speaker 1: but you know that gives them, in political terms, extraordinary 102 00:06:22,676 --> 00:06:26,956 Speaker 1: roots and longevity. But also they're tired, they feel tired, 103 00:06:26,996 --> 00:06:30,236 Speaker 1: they feel tired to me, they don't feel dead. They 104 00:06:30,276 --> 00:06:32,596 Speaker 1: could evolve. They could also have quite a lot of 105 00:06:32,596 --> 00:06:35,316 Speaker 1: life left in them, decades of life left in them, 106 00:06:35,396 --> 00:06:38,196 Speaker 1: but they feel tired. And it's that kind of quality 107 00:06:38,196 --> 00:06:42,756 Speaker 1: of tiredness rather than panic, despair, collapse that I was 108 00:06:42,796 --> 00:06:46,396 Speaker 1: trying to capture. It sounds a bit like the midlife 109 00:06:46,436 --> 00:06:50,556 Speaker 1: person that you have in mind is driving a car 110 00:06:50,996 --> 00:06:54,156 Speaker 1: that is perhaps in many ways one hundred years old 111 00:06:54,156 --> 00:06:57,236 Speaker 1: and has been patched together and peace together and changed 112 00:06:57,236 --> 00:07:00,516 Speaker 1: and transformed. And that's the institutions that you're describing, the 113 00:07:00,556 --> 00:07:04,196 Speaker 1: political parties, some of our constitutional institutions in the US 114 00:07:04,276 --> 00:07:08,156 Speaker 1: which changed very very slowly. That the electoral college comes 115 00:07:08,156 --> 00:07:11,316 Speaker 1: to mind. And so here we are in midlife, but 116 00:07:11,396 --> 00:07:17,436 Speaker 1: equipped not with the latest coolest machinery or computers or 117 00:07:17,516 --> 00:07:20,396 Speaker 1: software that would help us deal with the current circumstances, 118 00:07:20,756 --> 00:07:25,956 Speaker 1: but rather to some degree constrained or limited by those institutions. Yeah, 119 00:07:25,996 --> 00:07:27,956 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm happy with that analogy. And I do 120 00:07:28,316 --> 00:07:30,596 Speaker 1: have a variant on that in my book where I 121 00:07:30,636 --> 00:07:33,316 Speaker 1: describe Donald Trump as being like the motorbike that the 122 00:07:33,356 --> 00:07:36,276 Speaker 1: middle aged man buys partly because there is that feeling 123 00:07:36,276 --> 00:07:38,956 Speaker 1: in a midlife crisis. The car is old, or the 124 00:07:38,996 --> 00:07:42,516 Speaker 1: other analogy you could draw here is the marriage is 125 00:07:42,556 --> 00:07:44,356 Speaker 1: old or the relationship is old. You know you've been 126 00:07:44,396 --> 00:07:47,356 Speaker 1: start in something or with something for years or decades. 127 00:07:47,796 --> 00:07:49,996 Speaker 1: You're frustrated with it. You have a sense that it's 128 00:07:49,996 --> 00:07:52,756 Speaker 1: over familiar. It served you well in the past, but 129 00:07:52,796 --> 00:07:55,476 Speaker 1: you have a feeling that somehow it's not quite fit 130 00:07:55,556 --> 00:08:00,276 Speaker 1: for purpose anymore. One classic midlife response is to think, well, 131 00:08:00,276 --> 00:08:03,196 Speaker 1: I need the up to date version of this thing, 132 00:08:03,356 --> 00:08:06,396 Speaker 1: so I need the motorbike, or I need the affair, 133 00:08:06,556 --> 00:08:08,436 Speaker 1: I need you, I need to find the new version 134 00:08:08,476 --> 00:08:12,516 Speaker 1: of this thing. When that's not the issue here. You're 135 00:08:12,516 --> 00:08:15,036 Speaker 1: not going to solve your midlife crisis because you're frustrated 136 00:08:15,036 --> 00:08:18,116 Speaker 1: with your car by buying a motorbike. And that's what 137 00:08:18,156 --> 00:08:21,636 Speaker 1: it feels like to me, is that, yes, these institutions 138 00:08:21,636 --> 00:08:24,836 Speaker 1: are old and tired, they're also adaptable, so in a way, 139 00:08:24,836 --> 00:08:26,676 Speaker 1: they're not like a car from one hundred years ago. 140 00:08:26,676 --> 00:08:29,876 Speaker 1: They're like a car that has been updated regularly and 141 00:08:29,956 --> 00:08:33,396 Speaker 1: yet we can still see the original model behind it. 142 00:08:33,476 --> 00:08:36,676 Speaker 1: But the idea that somehow the solution to this is 143 00:08:36,756 --> 00:08:41,356 Speaker 1: just a faster car, the latest model, rather than to 144 00:08:41,396 --> 00:08:44,756 Speaker 1: ask ourselves genuinely. If we want this thing that we 145 00:08:44,836 --> 00:08:48,076 Speaker 1: call democracy to work and to continue for another hundred years, 146 00:08:48,476 --> 00:08:52,436 Speaker 1: we've probably got to think much harder about how we're different, 147 00:08:52,756 --> 00:08:55,396 Speaker 1: how the societies that we live in are different. You 148 00:08:55,436 --> 00:08:58,596 Speaker 1: can't just plug in a faster, newer version of this 149 00:08:58,636 --> 00:09:01,556 Speaker 1: thing and think it's going to make all the difference. 150 00:09:02,316 --> 00:09:04,476 Speaker 1: What I think that we're missing always when we think 151 00:09:04,516 --> 00:09:08,316 Speaker 1: about what's wrong with our democracy is genuinely thinking about 152 00:09:08,316 --> 00:09:11,396 Speaker 1: the future. And you know, we can leave this image 153 00:09:11,436 --> 00:09:12,916 Speaker 1: in a moment. But that's the other thing about a 154 00:09:12,916 --> 00:09:16,476 Speaker 1: midlife crisis. It's often nostalgia. You wish you were younger, 155 00:09:17,836 --> 00:09:20,476 Speaker 1: You want the moment when you could drive the car fast. 156 00:09:20,796 --> 00:09:25,436 Speaker 1: So if Donald Trump then is the motorbike Brexit is 157 00:09:25,476 --> 00:09:28,716 Speaker 1: the walking out on one's spouse and going walk about. 158 00:09:28,876 --> 00:09:31,956 Speaker 1: Yeah it is, and it's that thing of it underneath it. 159 00:09:31,996 --> 00:09:34,596 Speaker 1: There's a kind of complacency too, which is a characteristic 160 00:09:34,636 --> 00:09:37,676 Speaker 1: of this kind of psychology, which is people are frustrated 161 00:09:37,676 --> 00:09:40,836 Speaker 1: and angry, but they also believe we can take this risk. 162 00:09:41,276 --> 00:09:43,876 Speaker 1: Maybe our marriage will survive it. Now, maybe we won't 163 00:09:43,876 --> 00:09:47,796 Speaker 1: crash the motorbike. Because we're older and wiser. We're conflicted 164 00:09:47,836 --> 00:09:50,836 Speaker 1: about these things we want to change, but deep down 165 00:09:50,876 --> 00:09:53,116 Speaker 1: we don't want to change. And what people do in 166 00:09:53,116 --> 00:09:55,876 Speaker 1: middle age when they have that feeling is they do 167 00:09:55,956 --> 00:10:01,036 Speaker 1: something impetuous and impulsive but not actually long lasting. The 168 00:10:01,036 --> 00:10:04,836 Speaker 1: thing that we're missing is the long lasting reform. One 169 00:10:04,876 --> 00:10:08,676 Speaker 1: of the things that representative democracy was meant to do 170 00:10:08,836 --> 00:10:12,396 Speaker 1: from start, according to its theorists at least, was to 171 00:10:12,436 --> 00:10:18,756 Speaker 1: protect government against impulsive acts by the public. And that's 172 00:10:18,756 --> 00:10:22,636 Speaker 1: one reason why the referendum would have been very much 173 00:10:22,796 --> 00:10:26,076 Speaker 1: doubted as a good way of doing business by certainly 174 00:10:26,076 --> 00:10:28,956 Speaker 1: by eighteenth century theorists of democracy, and then in the 175 00:10:28,996 --> 00:10:31,876 Speaker 1: nineteenth century some people began to argue that, after all, 176 00:10:31,916 --> 00:10:34,916 Speaker 1: the referendum was a more direct direct way of reaching 177 00:10:34,916 --> 00:10:37,116 Speaker 1: the people. I wanted to ask you a question that 178 00:10:37,156 --> 00:10:40,116 Speaker 1: I've really been obsessed with in watching from across the 179 00:10:40,116 --> 00:10:44,796 Speaker 1: Atlantic the entire bregsit melt down. And that is why, 180 00:10:44,836 --> 00:10:49,236 Speaker 1: at this moment in time did Britain use a referendum 181 00:10:49,756 --> 00:10:54,316 Speaker 1: when it's in possession of the most evolved representative democratic 182 00:10:54,356 --> 00:10:57,156 Speaker 1: institutions that there are. Because it's frequently struck me that 183 00:10:57,516 --> 00:11:00,796 Speaker 1: the impossibility for Parliament of working out a solution to 184 00:11:00,836 --> 00:11:02,796 Speaker 1: bregsit has come from the fact that there was a 185 00:11:02,836 --> 00:11:05,156 Speaker 1: referendum with a yes or no question attached to it, 186 00:11:05,356 --> 00:11:08,156 Speaker 1: and then that was being pushed upon an institution very 187 00:11:08,156 --> 00:11:11,196 Speaker 1: different or represented institution that I've got its own internal logic, 188 00:11:11,236 --> 00:11:15,076 Speaker 1: in its own internal structures of politics. So why the referendum? 189 00:11:15,116 --> 00:11:19,196 Speaker 1: And am I right that the referendums mismatch with parliamentary 190 00:11:19,276 --> 00:11:22,836 Speaker 1: government has been part of the problem. You definitely are right. 191 00:11:22,916 --> 00:11:25,196 Speaker 1: I think there is a context here, which is the 192 00:11:25,236 --> 00:11:27,876 Speaker 1: Brexit referendum was not the first referendum, so it was 193 00:11:27,916 --> 00:11:31,876 Speaker 1: one of a series. Governments had recourse to referendums in 194 00:11:31,916 --> 00:11:35,316 Speaker 1: Britain for nearly a decade now, so there was one 195 00:11:35,356 --> 00:11:38,836 Speaker 1: about changing the voting system. There was more famously one 196 00:11:38,876 --> 00:11:43,636 Speaker 1: about Scottish independence. And the conclusion that I think that government, 197 00:11:43,636 --> 00:11:47,476 Speaker 1: in particular that David Cameron government drew was that referendums 198 00:11:47,476 --> 00:11:51,556 Speaker 1: are a good fit with representative parliamentary democracy when the 199 00:11:51,596 --> 00:11:55,796 Speaker 1: answer basically comes back as no change, and that therefore 200 00:11:55,796 --> 00:11:57,756 Speaker 1: they are a useful outlet. You give the people a 201 00:11:57,836 --> 00:12:01,356 Speaker 1: chance to have their moment, their flirtation with radical change, 202 00:12:01,756 --> 00:12:03,756 Speaker 1: they will come to their senses, they will sort of 203 00:12:04,116 --> 00:12:06,636 Speaker 1: snap out of it when they realize just how dangerous 204 00:12:06,636 --> 00:12:09,636 Speaker 1: the motorbikes or whatever, or the relationship, and they won't 205 00:12:09,676 --> 00:12:13,316 Speaker 1: do the really dangerous thing. What we've discovered with the 206 00:12:13,316 --> 00:12:16,116 Speaker 1: first referendum, when the answer didn't come back no change, 207 00:12:16,156 --> 00:12:18,636 Speaker 1: the answer came back change please. We don't know what 208 00:12:18,756 --> 00:12:21,076 Speaker 1: change means. We just want change. And you hear anecdotally 209 00:12:21,116 --> 00:12:23,156 Speaker 1: all the time in Britain when people who asked why 210 00:12:23,196 --> 00:12:26,396 Speaker 1: they voted for this they wanted some form of change. 211 00:12:26,436 --> 00:12:29,436 Speaker 1: It was an expression of frustration. There is no fit 212 00:12:29,756 --> 00:12:32,916 Speaker 1: because then Parliament has to decide what change means. And 213 00:12:32,996 --> 00:12:35,836 Speaker 1: Parliament can't decide what change means because Parliament doesn't agree 214 00:12:35,876 --> 00:12:39,036 Speaker 1: on the necessary change. And the referendum doesn't tell you 215 00:12:39,196 --> 00:12:41,916 Speaker 1: what change means, it just tells you there was an 216 00:12:41,916 --> 00:12:45,436 Speaker 1: appetite for change. So the shock to the system has 217 00:12:45,476 --> 00:12:47,796 Speaker 1: actually again come from a kind of complacency, and you 218 00:12:47,836 --> 00:12:49,836 Speaker 1: really saw it in the Brexit referendum. I mean, I 219 00:12:49,876 --> 00:12:53,796 Speaker 1: think the catastrophic mistake that the Cameron government made was 220 00:12:53,836 --> 00:12:56,796 Speaker 1: that they thought that the Scottish referendum had shown them 221 00:12:57,556 --> 00:13:00,476 Speaker 1: that when you get to the day of the choice, 222 00:13:01,036 --> 00:13:06,276 Speaker 1: people shy away, and they didn't appreciate that the data 223 00:13:06,316 --> 00:13:08,796 Speaker 1: set there was very small. It was just one yes. 224 00:13:09,116 --> 00:13:10,996 Speaker 1: And actually I also think they learned the wrong lesson 225 00:13:11,036 --> 00:13:14,116 Speaker 1: because there was this phrase used about the Scottish referendum, 226 00:13:14,116 --> 00:13:17,596 Speaker 1: which was project fear, which was that what people shied 227 00:13:17,596 --> 00:13:19,956 Speaker 1: away from in the end in Scotland from independent when 228 00:13:19,956 --> 00:13:23,156 Speaker 1: they offered independence was the thought of the possible chaos, 229 00:13:23,236 --> 00:13:26,956 Speaker 1: particularly financial monetary chaos, what currency would we have, what 230 00:13:26,996 --> 00:13:29,476 Speaker 1: would our relationship be with the Bank of England and 231 00:13:29,516 --> 00:13:31,876 Speaker 1: so on. But actually, if you look at the evidence 232 00:13:31,916 --> 00:13:35,036 Speaker 1: from the Scottish referendum and the polling evidence, people were 233 00:13:35,636 --> 00:13:39,676 Speaker 1: moving towards independence and they didn't shy away from it 234 00:13:39,676 --> 00:13:42,476 Speaker 1: at the last minute because they suddenly got afraid. What 235 00:13:42,596 --> 00:13:45,316 Speaker 1: happened was the politicians got afraid and at the last 236 00:13:45,356 --> 00:13:48,196 Speaker 1: minute all of the leaders of the British parties, the 237 00:13:48,196 --> 00:13:50,636 Speaker 1: Westminster Parties, went up to Scotland and made all sorts 238 00:13:50,636 --> 00:13:53,796 Speaker 1: of concessions to great a devolution, to more financial support. 239 00:13:54,316 --> 00:13:55,996 Speaker 1: It wasn't fear on the part of the voter, that 240 00:13:56,076 --> 00:13:58,316 Speaker 1: was fear on the part of the politicians. They didn't 241 00:13:58,356 --> 00:14:00,516 Speaker 1: do that in the Brexit case. So in the last 242 00:14:00,556 --> 00:14:03,596 Speaker 1: week there wasn't from Cameron or anyone else a recognition 243 00:14:03,596 --> 00:14:05,196 Speaker 1: that this thing was getting away from them, and they 244 00:14:05,196 --> 00:14:07,436 Speaker 1: would actually have to say something to the people who 245 00:14:07,436 --> 00:14:11,436 Speaker 1: wanted change which sounded like change. They carried on with fear, 246 00:14:12,156 --> 00:14:14,396 Speaker 1: and now we are, as you described, in a position 247 00:14:14,396 --> 00:14:16,556 Speaker 1: where we have two forms of democracy in this country 248 00:14:16,716 --> 00:14:19,956 Speaker 1: that cannot be meshed together. But it wasn't. It wasn't 249 00:14:19,956 --> 00:14:21,436 Speaker 1: a one off, and I think the history of it 250 00:14:21,476 --> 00:14:24,236 Speaker 1: only makes sense when you understand that it was the 251 00:14:24,236 --> 00:14:28,076 Speaker 1: politicians who drew the wrong lesson about referendums because they 252 00:14:28,156 --> 00:14:31,716 Speaker 1: thought it gave them a safe outlet. And the thing 253 00:14:31,796 --> 00:14:34,156 Speaker 1: about safe outlets is that they're safe until they're not, 254 00:14:34,316 --> 00:14:37,156 Speaker 1: and then you've got a disaster on your hands. It's 255 00:14:37,156 --> 00:14:40,876 Speaker 1: a genuinely fascinating answer because it also explains another puzzle 256 00:14:40,916 --> 00:14:43,356 Speaker 1: that I was never clear on, which is why it 257 00:14:43,436 --> 00:14:46,996 Speaker 1: was conservatives in particular who would have taken this risk 258 00:14:47,076 --> 00:14:50,636 Speaker 1: with the referendums, since the referendum form, at least in 259 00:14:50,676 --> 00:14:56,396 Speaker 1: its historical form, is always thought to be precisely about populism. 260 00:14:56,436 --> 00:14:58,396 Speaker 1: It's about the whole reason to have a referendum rather 261 00:14:58,436 --> 00:15:01,196 Speaker 1: than going through the legislature, is to get to the people. 262 00:15:01,516 --> 00:15:03,716 Speaker 1: On the theory that the politicians are in some way 263 00:15:03,756 --> 00:15:05,756 Speaker 1: interfering with the will of the people and one has 264 00:15:05,756 --> 00:15:08,156 Speaker 1: to get around them. And what I hear implicit in 265 00:15:08,156 --> 00:15:10,916 Speaker 1: your answer, tell me if this is the right lesson 266 00:15:10,916 --> 00:15:13,356 Speaker 1: to take away from what you're saying, is that it was, 267 00:15:13,396 --> 00:15:19,716 Speaker 1: in a way the nostalgic or aspirational view of the 268 00:15:19,756 --> 00:15:22,716 Speaker 1: contemporary Conservative Party that thinks of the ordinary British voter 269 00:15:22,836 --> 00:15:25,996 Speaker 1: is really very sensible in the end and likely to 270 00:15:26,036 --> 00:15:30,196 Speaker 1: do what the Conservative Partian imagines ought to be done, 271 00:15:30,236 --> 00:15:32,756 Speaker 1: at least what Cameron imagined ought to be done. That 272 00:15:33,036 --> 00:15:37,316 Speaker 1: was the driving force behind them making the mistaken inference 273 00:15:37,356 --> 00:15:40,556 Speaker 1: from one or two data points. I definitely think that's 274 00:15:40,596 --> 00:15:44,276 Speaker 1: part of it. I think what we've discovered, and it's 275 00:15:44,356 --> 00:15:48,636 Speaker 1: clearly not just in this country. Elections, both general elections 276 00:15:48,636 --> 00:15:51,156 Speaker 1: and referendum results have been surprising people for a few 277 00:15:51,236 --> 00:15:54,996 Speaker 1: years now that there was also this feeling. The Conservative 278 00:15:54,996 --> 00:15:58,716 Speaker 1: Party often describes itself as the historically most successful election 279 00:15:58,796 --> 00:16:02,876 Speaker 1: winning machine in the Western world. It's been winning elections 280 00:16:02,916 --> 00:16:05,076 Speaker 1: in one form or another two hundred years, and somehow 281 00:16:05,076 --> 00:16:07,876 Speaker 1: it always stumbles across the right answer, and there is 282 00:16:07,876 --> 00:16:10,036 Speaker 1: that feeling that the Conservative part he has an instinctive 283 00:16:10,116 --> 00:16:13,556 Speaker 1: understanding of its people, and it didn't in this case. 284 00:16:14,076 --> 00:16:16,556 Speaker 1: But there was also this other weird complacency at work, 285 00:16:16,556 --> 00:16:18,116 Speaker 1: and I heard it a lot after the results. So 286 00:16:18,156 --> 00:16:22,036 Speaker 1: the result profoundly shocked the party establishment, but it quickly adapted. 287 00:16:22,276 --> 00:16:26,236 Speaker 1: Theresa May became Prime Minister and the thought was, well, 288 00:16:26,276 --> 00:16:28,476 Speaker 1: at least the thing that we have done as true 289 00:16:28,516 --> 00:16:32,796 Speaker 1: Conservatives is that we have co opted populism. We offered 290 00:16:32,796 --> 00:16:35,396 Speaker 1: this referendum, it didn't produce the result that we were expecting, 291 00:16:35,436 --> 00:16:38,236 Speaker 1: but now that result can be channeled through the party 292 00:16:38,276 --> 00:16:40,876 Speaker 1: and we have killed our populist party. So the populist 293 00:16:40,916 --> 00:16:44,876 Speaker 1: party was UKIP Nigel Farage's party, which was polling pretty 294 00:16:44,956 --> 00:16:46,996 Speaker 1: high in the run up to the referendum, and then 295 00:16:46,996 --> 00:16:50,236 Speaker 1: when they got what they wanted leaving the EU, the 296 00:16:50,276 --> 00:16:53,316 Speaker 1: Conservative Party just took it over and performed its historic mission, 297 00:16:53,316 --> 00:16:55,436 Speaker 1: which was basically to take over whatever was on the 298 00:16:55,436 --> 00:16:59,036 Speaker 1: table and conservatize it. That's a word, you make it 299 00:16:59,316 --> 00:17:02,756 Speaker 1: fit conservative politics. And Theresa May and her supporters I 300 00:17:02,796 --> 00:17:05,516 Speaker 1: heard them saying for a year eighteen months, we have 301 00:17:05,596 --> 00:17:08,956 Speaker 1: performed our historic function. We have killed populism in Britain. 302 00:17:09,316 --> 00:17:13,356 Speaker 1: It's rampant in Europe. It's frankly rampant. In the United States, 303 00:17:13,676 --> 00:17:17,596 Speaker 1: Donald Trump has just used populism and actually infected Republicanism 304 00:17:17,596 --> 00:17:20,316 Speaker 1: with it. We've done the opposite. They claimed, we have 305 00:17:20,396 --> 00:17:24,396 Speaker 1: allowed a traditional conservative party to take it on and 306 00:17:24,436 --> 00:17:28,996 Speaker 1: then basically to defang it, and they were wrong. So 307 00:17:29,076 --> 00:17:31,156 Speaker 1: here we are three years later, because they had no 308 00:17:31,276 --> 00:17:36,156 Speaker 1: means of translating the referendum result into meaningful politics, and 309 00:17:36,156 --> 00:17:38,076 Speaker 1: they still haven't worked out how to do it. We 310 00:17:38,196 --> 00:17:40,756 Speaker 1: have Boris Johnson about to become Prime Minister on a 311 00:17:40,836 --> 00:17:45,156 Speaker 1: frankly populist Trumpish platform because he has got to compete 312 00:17:45,156 --> 00:17:48,956 Speaker 1: with Nigel Farrage his party yukit was killed and then 313 00:17:48,996 --> 00:17:52,036 Speaker 1: reinvented itself as the Brexit Party and is polling at 314 00:17:52,076 --> 00:17:55,236 Speaker 1: double the level yukit was ever polling out. There has 315 00:17:55,316 --> 00:17:59,516 Speaker 1: always been in British Conservatism a deep complacency which is 316 00:17:59,556 --> 00:18:03,356 Speaker 1: somehow as long as it passes through us because we're Conservatives, 317 00:18:03,396 --> 00:18:05,796 Speaker 1: it will be all right. And even a party that's 318 00:18:05,796 --> 00:18:07,796 Speaker 1: two hundred years old is eventually going to make a 319 00:18:07,876 --> 00:18:11,276 Speaker 1: fatal mistake. And I know conservative politicians in this country 320 00:18:11,276 --> 00:18:15,356 Speaker 1: who believe the British Conservative Party maybe in its death throws. 321 00:18:15,436 --> 00:18:17,836 Speaker 1: So British democracy. I don't think it's in its death throws, 322 00:18:18,276 --> 00:18:20,756 Speaker 1: but one of its traditional parties, and maybe even both 323 00:18:20,756 --> 00:18:24,876 Speaker 1: of them, could well be dying. So tell me a 324 00:18:24,916 --> 00:18:28,316 Speaker 1: little bit about your view of Johnson and in what 325 00:18:28,396 --> 00:18:33,316 Speaker 1: way does someone who know sociologically looks not so different 326 00:18:33,436 --> 00:18:40,076 Speaker 1: from Cameron turn into a Trump figure. Frankly, even six 327 00:18:40,156 --> 00:18:43,476 Speaker 1: months ago, the prospect of Boris Johnson becoming Prime Minister 328 00:18:43,516 --> 00:18:45,996 Speaker 1: looked very very remote. So this is British politics has 329 00:18:45,996 --> 00:18:49,636 Speaker 1: turned around, very very quickly. And the reason Johnson is 330 00:18:49,676 --> 00:18:53,436 Speaker 1: now seen by many Conservatives as the answer is partly 331 00:18:53,476 --> 00:18:57,596 Speaker 1: because May's failure was total. It's partly because the last 332 00:18:57,636 --> 00:19:00,676 Speaker 1: thing that Theresa May did was to try and forge 333 00:19:00,676 --> 00:19:04,796 Speaker 1: some bipartisan consensus to get her Brexit deal over the line, 334 00:19:04,796 --> 00:19:08,316 Speaker 1: which meant negotiating with Jeremy Corbyn. And it's almost like 335 00:19:08,676 --> 00:19:12,156 Speaker 1: the bin is not just our Bernie Sanders. He's for 336 00:19:12,316 --> 00:19:15,116 Speaker 1: many Conservatives, he's further along the line to what they 337 00:19:15,156 --> 00:19:18,076 Speaker 1: think of as Leninist catastrophe than that he is to 338 00:19:18,156 --> 00:19:20,476 Speaker 1: the left of Bernie Sanders on substantive policy. I think, 339 00:19:20,476 --> 00:19:23,236 Speaker 1: for what that's worth quite a part from any allegations 340 00:19:23,236 --> 00:19:26,236 Speaker 1: of Clinism Yeah, So what we had was a Conservative 341 00:19:26,316 --> 00:19:30,556 Speaker 1: leader offering to negotiate with someone who, genuinely, I think 342 00:19:30,596 --> 00:19:36,836 Speaker 1: for almost every conservative politician, is beyond the pale, and 343 00:19:37,316 --> 00:19:41,516 Speaker 1: that seemed to sort of trigger in the Conservative Party 344 00:19:42,156 --> 00:19:47,196 Speaker 1: a desire for the politician who would never think that 345 00:19:47,196 --> 00:19:50,156 Speaker 1: that kind of bipartisan consensus was a way to solve 346 00:19:50,196 --> 00:19:53,236 Speaker 1: this problem. And it was almost a reaction to that 347 00:19:53,236 --> 00:19:58,756 Speaker 1: that produced Johnson. Johnson's claim and he's repeated it throughout 348 00:19:58,796 --> 00:20:00,636 Speaker 1: this campaign, which is about to end, but he's more 349 00:20:00,676 --> 00:20:03,276 Speaker 1: or less already won. It is that he can be 350 00:20:03,316 --> 00:20:06,156 Speaker 1: trusted because he was quite a successful mayor of London. 351 00:20:06,876 --> 00:20:09,516 Speaker 1: But when he was mayor of London, if you looked 352 00:20:09,516 --> 00:20:11,396 Speaker 1: at Johnson, you would have said he was another of 353 00:20:11,396 --> 00:20:14,836 Speaker 1: that generation of Conservative politicians of whom Cameron was another, 354 00:20:15,356 --> 00:20:18,916 Speaker 1: who saw themselves as twenty first century Thatcher rights, and 355 00:20:18,996 --> 00:20:22,676 Speaker 1: that Margaret Thatcher was their model. Margaret Thatcher is on 356 00:20:22,716 --> 00:20:25,996 Speaker 1: no account a populist and on no account was anything 357 00:20:26,036 --> 00:20:29,596 Speaker 1: like a Trump politician. She was radical in her way, 358 00:20:30,236 --> 00:20:34,156 Speaker 1: but she was also small c conservative, particularly about institutions. 359 00:20:34,396 --> 00:20:36,236 Speaker 1: So there was none of that sense that you get 360 00:20:36,236 --> 00:20:39,116 Speaker 1: with the current generation of populace that they're here actually 361 00:20:39,156 --> 00:20:43,316 Speaker 1: to undercut the institutional basis of democratic politics. Margaret Thatcher 362 00:20:43,396 --> 00:20:45,996 Speaker 1: was a classic politician We've had fifty years of them 363 00:20:45,996 --> 00:20:48,356 Speaker 1: at that period, maybe coming to an end, who saw 364 00:20:48,356 --> 00:20:51,876 Speaker 1: the challenge of democratic politics, to test the institutions, to 365 00:20:51,956 --> 00:20:55,276 Speaker 1: push them, but never to think about breaking them. And 366 00:20:55,396 --> 00:20:59,116 Speaker 1: Johnson was one of those. It is the phenomenon of 367 00:20:59,156 --> 00:21:01,236 Speaker 1: the last three or four years that has changed him 368 00:21:01,276 --> 00:21:05,076 Speaker 1: into what looks like a more trumpish politician. He's also 369 00:21:05,116 --> 00:21:08,756 Speaker 1: a journalist. His journalism has always been you know, the 370 00:21:09,156 --> 00:21:11,396 Speaker 1: people have been trawling through it and have found statements 371 00:21:11,436 --> 00:21:14,436 Speaker 1: which you would think would rule someone out from needing 372 00:21:14,916 --> 00:21:19,116 Speaker 1: a mature democracy because of the implicit racism in a 373 00:21:19,116 --> 00:21:23,316 Speaker 1: lot of it, the imperialism, the nostalgia for a time 374 00:21:23,356 --> 00:21:26,916 Speaker 1: when Britain ruled the world and people of different colors 375 00:21:26,916 --> 00:21:31,356 Speaker 1: and different creeds knew their place. That's there in Johnson's past. 376 00:21:31,396 --> 00:21:33,316 Speaker 1: But I think in his own mind he would have thought, well, 377 00:21:33,396 --> 00:21:37,036 Speaker 1: my journalism was kind of a sideshow to make me famous, 378 00:21:37,356 --> 00:21:42,116 Speaker 1: and then my politics will be conventional thatch right politics. 379 00:21:42,636 --> 00:21:44,516 Speaker 1: And I think he's noticed in the last two or 380 00:21:44,516 --> 00:21:48,996 Speaker 1: three years that his journalism and that persona is the 381 00:21:49,036 --> 00:21:51,796 Speaker 1: one that other populists around the world are using to 382 00:21:51,836 --> 00:21:54,796 Speaker 1: win power. How far he's willing to push it, I 383 00:21:54,836 --> 00:21:58,996 Speaker 1: don't know, but we're seeing signs of it already, that 384 00:21:59,716 --> 00:22:04,516 Speaker 1: he thinks that the climate has changed and he's changed 385 00:22:04,516 --> 00:22:08,236 Speaker 1: with it. The way in which he's not Trump is 386 00:22:08,236 --> 00:22:10,876 Speaker 1: that he is a professor politician. I mean, he's a journalist, 387 00:22:10,876 --> 00:22:14,636 Speaker 1: but he's also a professional politician. He is flirting with 388 00:22:14,676 --> 00:22:18,796 Speaker 1: this form of politics, and I think he's trying it out, 389 00:22:18,916 --> 00:22:21,836 Speaker 1: and no one knows in the British context how far 390 00:22:21,956 --> 00:22:24,156 Speaker 1: you can go. The one other thing I would say 391 00:22:24,196 --> 00:22:27,716 Speaker 1: about Boris Johnson is that say Britain, like the United States, 392 00:22:27,796 --> 00:22:32,556 Speaker 1: is a country where that kind of politics populist, appealing 393 00:22:32,596 --> 00:22:35,356 Speaker 1: to older voters, appealing to voters who didn't go to college, 394 00:22:36,356 --> 00:22:41,636 Speaker 1: and speaking a language which flirts with racial stereotypes and 395 00:22:41,716 --> 00:22:44,836 Speaker 1: other kinds of politics which would five years ago been 396 00:22:44,876 --> 00:22:48,996 Speaker 1: thought to be outside the bounds of democratic decency. Say 397 00:22:49,036 --> 00:22:53,396 Speaker 1: you can get to forty percent with that. Trump's sealing 398 00:22:53,876 --> 00:22:58,356 Speaker 1: forty five, forty seven when he's lucky, But say forty 399 00:22:58,436 --> 00:23:01,396 Speaker 1: is the limit you can get to in a British context, Well, 400 00:23:01,396 --> 00:23:03,436 Speaker 1: we do not have a presidential system we have a 401 00:23:03,436 --> 00:23:06,676 Speaker 1: parliamentary system, and if Boris Johnson polls forty percent at 402 00:23:06,676 --> 00:23:09,636 Speaker 1: the next British general election, given the other parties divide 403 00:23:09,716 --> 00:23:13,076 Speaker 1: up the rest, he will be Prime Minister with a 404 00:23:13,116 --> 00:23:16,396 Speaker 1: massive majority in Parliament. If it is true that that 405 00:23:16,476 --> 00:23:20,396 Speaker 1: kind of politics does undercut Farrage wins back the Farage 406 00:23:20,436 --> 00:23:22,956 Speaker 1: people of the Conservative body, and it's feeling is forty 407 00:23:22,996 --> 00:23:27,036 Speaker 1: percent Johnson wins, and he's not stupid, So there is 408 00:23:27,076 --> 00:23:30,716 Speaker 1: some political calculation at work here too. One more question 409 00:23:30,756 --> 00:23:34,116 Speaker 1: about Baris Johnson before we start talking about other potential 410 00:23:34,156 --> 00:23:38,996 Speaker 1: approaches to the midlife crisis, and it's this A central 411 00:23:39,116 --> 00:23:43,116 Speaker 1: theme in your brand, brand new book, Where Power Stops, 412 00:23:43,676 --> 00:23:46,556 Speaker 1: is that power reveals, a phrase that you I think 413 00:23:46,636 --> 00:23:49,556 Speaker 1: rightly attribute to Robert Carrow and his fantastic books about 414 00:23:50,196 --> 00:23:53,556 Speaker 1: Lyndon Johnson. In the case of Johnson, he hasn't yet 415 00:23:53,596 --> 00:23:56,396 Speaker 1: assumed power, and so it's too soon to say with 416 00:23:56,396 --> 00:23:58,836 Speaker 1: any confidence what it will reveal. But what you describe 417 00:23:58,876 --> 00:24:01,356 Speaker 1: as somebody who has already had two sides, the professional 418 00:24:01,436 --> 00:24:04,596 Speaker 1: politician side a little bit more cautious and that right 419 00:24:04,716 --> 00:24:09,076 Speaker 1: than the journalist side, much more outspoken, bordering on racism. 420 00:24:09,196 --> 00:24:12,956 Speaker 1: Under some circumstances capable of populism, if that's what's called for, 421 00:24:13,596 --> 00:24:17,196 Speaker 1: and they're in some sense in counterpoise with one another. 422 00:24:17,916 --> 00:24:22,476 Speaker 1: And now if he does indeed take power and exercise it, 423 00:24:22,596 --> 00:24:25,996 Speaker 1: I suppose we'll find out. Power will reveal which of 424 00:24:26,036 --> 00:24:28,716 Speaker 1: these two he really is, or really means to be. 425 00:24:28,796 --> 00:24:31,156 Speaker 1: And I guess the question I have is, do you 426 00:24:31,196 --> 00:24:33,316 Speaker 1: have an instinct do you think that he is? It 427 00:24:33,356 --> 00:24:34,836 Speaker 1: sounds like you don't think that he is at heart 428 00:24:34,836 --> 00:24:36,676 Speaker 1: a populist or at heart of Thatcher right, but rather 429 00:24:36,756 --> 00:24:39,196 Speaker 1: at heart something of an opportunist, and that you think 430 00:24:39,236 --> 00:24:41,556 Speaker 1: he'll go with whatever works. But I don't want to 431 00:24:41,836 --> 00:24:44,196 Speaker 1: push an interpretation around you that that isn't yours. Do 432 00:24:44,236 --> 00:24:45,836 Speaker 1: you have an instinct about which way he will go 433 00:24:45,956 --> 00:24:48,716 Speaker 1: in power? If he does acquire power. The lesson that 434 00:24:48,716 --> 00:24:51,156 Speaker 1: I'm trying to draw is slightly different from the Karrow ones. 435 00:24:51,156 --> 00:24:54,636 Speaker 1: A Caro's line is indeed that power reveals the true person, 436 00:24:54,716 --> 00:24:57,876 Speaker 1: the true man, because he's writing about a man, Lyndon Johnson, 437 00:24:57,916 --> 00:25:01,916 Speaker 1: and that when Johnson becomes president Lyndon Boris, we discover 438 00:25:02,036 --> 00:25:04,276 Speaker 1: that deep down there was a man of compassion there. 439 00:25:04,916 --> 00:25:08,236 Speaker 1: And my argument is that most of these people don't 440 00:25:08,356 --> 00:25:11,316 Speaker 1: really reveal anything about themselves in the highest office that 441 00:25:11,356 --> 00:25:14,396 Speaker 1: we didn't know about them anyway. What we discover is 442 00:25:14,436 --> 00:25:17,196 Speaker 1: more not who they are, but the nature of the 443 00:25:17,236 --> 00:25:20,116 Speaker 1: power that can be wielded in these roles as president 444 00:25:20,196 --> 00:25:22,556 Speaker 1: or prime minister. So in a way, with Johnson, we 445 00:25:22,596 --> 00:25:25,796 Speaker 1: discovered more about what a president could do than who 446 00:25:25,876 --> 00:25:29,436 Speaker 1: Lyndon Johnson really was. I don't think politicians change when 447 00:25:29,436 --> 00:25:31,956 Speaker 1: they reached the top. If anything, I think they become 448 00:25:32,316 --> 00:25:36,316 Speaker 1: more fixed because the person they were is what brought 449 00:25:36,356 --> 00:25:39,396 Speaker 1: them to the top. What we will discover if and 450 00:25:39,396 --> 00:25:42,516 Speaker 1: when Boris Johnson becomes prime Minister is not who he 451 00:25:42,596 --> 00:25:45,956 Speaker 1: really is. We know that what we'll discover is what 452 00:25:45,996 --> 00:25:48,236 Speaker 1: a man like that can do as prime minister? Can 453 00:25:48,276 --> 00:25:53,116 Speaker 1: the office a prime minister be stretched so opportunistically beyond 454 00:25:53,156 --> 00:25:55,636 Speaker 1: what we might have thought was possible over the last decades, 455 00:25:56,556 --> 00:26:01,916 Speaker 1: that a character like Johnson's, so in its way fickle, 456 00:26:02,196 --> 00:26:05,396 Speaker 1: are so capable of playing both sides, is able to 457 00:26:05,436 --> 00:26:08,796 Speaker 1: achieve things that someone liked the reason may couldn't. And 458 00:26:09,996 --> 00:26:12,596 Speaker 1: the character of the office of prime minister is changing, 459 00:26:12,676 --> 00:26:15,316 Speaker 1: just as the character of the office of president is changing. 460 00:26:15,996 --> 00:26:19,596 Speaker 1: And I think we get acclimatized so quickly, you know, 461 00:26:19,636 --> 00:26:23,036 Speaker 1: we forget that Trump is doing things that would have 462 00:26:23,116 --> 00:26:26,636 Speaker 1: seemed inconceivable five years ago, and I suspect with Johnson 463 00:26:27,556 --> 00:26:29,796 Speaker 1: the same will be true. But we will also find 464 00:26:29,836 --> 00:26:32,196 Speaker 1: the limits. And in a sense, I think what we 465 00:26:32,276 --> 00:26:35,316 Speaker 1: discover with these characters are the limits, but the limits 466 00:26:35,356 --> 00:26:37,916 Speaker 1: aren't quite where we thought they were. And again with Trump, 467 00:26:38,916 --> 00:26:40,716 Speaker 1: we're finding that some of the things that we thought 468 00:26:40,716 --> 00:26:42,956 Speaker 1: were limits aren't. But I think we're also finding that 469 00:26:43,036 --> 00:26:47,076 Speaker 1: it's not that Trump has just achieved something with that 470 00:26:47,156 --> 00:26:50,196 Speaker 1: office of president, which means that none of the old 471 00:26:50,236 --> 00:26:54,036 Speaker 1: rules apply. Some of them still do. That leads me 472 00:26:54,156 --> 00:26:57,836 Speaker 1: to then the real question of what is going to 473 00:26:57,916 --> 00:27:02,116 Speaker 1: happen next in these midlife crises. You're careful not to 474 00:27:02,156 --> 00:27:05,196 Speaker 1: say in either book that you have a solution or 475 00:27:05,276 --> 00:27:08,556 Speaker 1: that there's a simple answer of where we're headed. But 476 00:27:08,676 --> 00:27:12,236 Speaker 1: in both cases of the United States and of Britain, 477 00:27:13,036 --> 00:27:18,476 Speaker 1: these crises generated by midlife are going to have some trajectory. 478 00:27:18,476 --> 00:27:21,996 Speaker 1: They're going to come out somehow or other. I tend 479 00:27:22,036 --> 00:27:23,836 Speaker 1: to agree with you that the presidency will survive at 480 00:27:23,876 --> 00:27:26,756 Speaker 1: Donald Trump, even if a bit changed, and no doubt 481 00:27:27,236 --> 00:27:31,116 Speaker 1: the prime ministership will survive. Baris Johnson. The question I 482 00:27:31,156 --> 00:27:34,436 Speaker 1: have is what do you see as plausible roots out 483 00:27:34,476 --> 00:27:38,396 Speaker 1: of these crises now, not normative solutions, but possible paths 484 00:27:38,596 --> 00:27:41,516 Speaker 1: that we might be following. So I increasingly think that 485 00:27:41,556 --> 00:27:44,756 Speaker 1: we have to recognize that when we tell the story 486 00:27:44,756 --> 00:27:48,236 Speaker 1: of democracy, we're telling these overlapping stories. There is the 487 00:27:48,316 --> 00:27:53,956 Speaker 1: story of what we think of as democracy, modern liberal, representative, constitutional, 488 00:27:54,396 --> 00:27:58,716 Speaker 1: mass franchise, mass communication democracy, basically the twentieth century story, 489 00:27:59,316 --> 00:28:00,956 Speaker 1: and we could not just be in the middle of that. 490 00:28:00,996 --> 00:28:03,716 Speaker 1: We might be quite late in that, and some of 491 00:28:03,716 --> 00:28:06,596 Speaker 1: those institutions I think are in real trouble. Of which 492 00:28:07,436 --> 00:28:10,796 Speaker 1: political parties are first in the firing line, I think, 493 00:28:10,996 --> 00:28:15,356 Speaker 1: especially the established political parties, ten fifteen years down the line, 494 00:28:15,516 --> 00:28:17,996 Speaker 1: that scene could look very very different. I think you 495 00:28:17,996 --> 00:28:20,476 Speaker 1: can see these parties breaking up. So I think some 496 00:28:20,516 --> 00:28:23,116 Speaker 1: of the institutions that are familiar, over familiar to us 497 00:28:23,116 --> 00:28:25,556 Speaker 1: could be in real trouble. But there's a longer story. 498 00:28:25,676 --> 00:28:28,596 Speaker 1: There is the story of representative democracy which does go back, 499 00:28:28,956 --> 00:28:31,356 Speaker 1: particularly in the British and American case, not just one 500 00:28:31,396 --> 00:28:33,836 Speaker 1: hundred years, but two hundred plus years. The idea that 501 00:28:34,516 --> 00:28:37,796 Speaker 1: most of us don't do politics except very, very occasionally, 502 00:28:37,836 --> 00:28:39,756 Speaker 1: but we vote for people who do it for us, 503 00:28:39,996 --> 00:28:42,636 Speaker 1: and that there is a group sometimes called a class, 504 00:28:43,156 --> 00:28:47,396 Speaker 1: who are the political class. I'm almost more interested in 505 00:28:47,436 --> 00:28:49,836 Speaker 1: what's going to happen to that story, and I think 506 00:28:49,836 --> 00:28:55,196 Speaker 1: that one might be starting to slowly, very slowly break down. Two. So, 507 00:28:55,236 --> 00:28:56,956 Speaker 1: to go back to your question about referendums, I mean, 508 00:28:56,956 --> 00:28:59,676 Speaker 1: it wasn't just a political calculation. There's also this sense, 509 00:28:59,716 --> 00:29:04,196 Speaker 1: I think from elected politicians that there is growing pressure 510 00:29:05,156 --> 00:29:09,836 Speaker 1: from the voters for more direct input. I am starting 511 00:29:09,836 --> 00:29:12,036 Speaker 1: to think that there is a deeper story, you know, 512 00:29:12,076 --> 00:29:13,996 Speaker 1: the two thousand year old story two and a half 513 00:29:14,036 --> 00:29:16,836 Speaker 1: thousand year old story about democracy, which is the ancient 514 00:29:16,836 --> 00:29:20,076 Speaker 1: Greek story about direct democracy. But also people feeling that 515 00:29:20,156 --> 00:29:22,756 Speaker 1: what democracy gives you is not a quiet life, a 516 00:29:22,836 --> 00:29:26,756 Speaker 1: comfortable life. Prosperity also gives you a sense of control 517 00:29:26,876 --> 00:29:30,596 Speaker 1: of your fate, and that we have to recapture that. 518 00:29:31,156 --> 00:29:34,556 Speaker 1: And we're going through the spasms of democratic societies where 519 00:29:34,596 --> 00:29:37,716 Speaker 1: too many people, for different reasons, feel that giving that 520 00:29:37,836 --> 00:29:41,876 Speaker 1: small group of professional politicians the ultimate decision means that 521 00:29:41,916 --> 00:29:45,036 Speaker 1: we have lost control of our fate. I don't think 522 00:29:45,036 --> 00:29:49,036 Speaker 1: this will end dramatically with something happening in the next 523 00:29:49,036 --> 00:29:51,236 Speaker 1: five or ten years that signals the end. I think 524 00:29:51,236 --> 00:29:56,236 Speaker 1: it's a gradual unraveling of these hundred two hundred years stories. 525 00:29:56,876 --> 00:30:01,156 Speaker 1: But over the next decades, those institutions, and particularly the 526 00:30:01,196 --> 00:30:05,876 Speaker 1: institutions that have anchored professional politics as we've known it 527 00:30:05,956 --> 00:30:09,356 Speaker 1: for the last couple of generations, that's the thing going 528 00:30:09,356 --> 00:30:12,636 Speaker 1: to unravel. And when you look at that hundred years story, 529 00:30:12,676 --> 00:30:16,316 Speaker 1: that incredible success story, the twentieth century story, the democratic century, 530 00:30:16,356 --> 00:30:21,156 Speaker 1: the liberal constitutional, representative democratic century, the professional democratic century, 531 00:30:22,196 --> 00:30:24,916 Speaker 1: and you look at our politics now, and you look 532 00:30:24,916 --> 00:30:28,316 Speaker 1: at how fast everything else has changed, it does look 533 00:30:28,436 --> 00:30:30,676 Speaker 1: not just tired and old, but it looks like it 534 00:30:30,756 --> 00:30:33,476 Speaker 1: got stuck twenty thirty years ago, sort of at the 535 00:30:33,516 --> 00:30:36,196 Speaker 1: dawn of the digital revolution. We must be on the 536 00:30:36,276 --> 00:30:38,636 Speaker 1: cast like I can't believe that in ten twenty years 537 00:30:38,716 --> 00:30:40,836 Speaker 1: time we won't look back to this period and see 538 00:30:40,916 --> 00:30:44,316 Speaker 1: this was the beginning not just of the unraveling, but 539 00:30:44,436 --> 00:30:46,516 Speaker 1: of the transition to something that we would think of 540 00:30:46,676 --> 00:30:51,036 Speaker 1: is genuinely twenty first century democracy, and that will be 541 00:30:51,076 --> 00:30:55,436 Speaker 1: more fragmented, more local, more digital, more direct, less professional, 542 00:30:56,276 --> 00:31:01,396 Speaker 1: probably for a while, more chaotic. It could be better now. 543 00:31:01,396 --> 00:31:04,916 Speaker 1: The future is not determined by how democracy failed in 544 00:31:04,956 --> 00:31:06,956 Speaker 1: the nineteen thirties or the risks that we ran in 545 00:31:06,996 --> 00:31:11,076 Speaker 1: the nineteen seventies. The future is infinitely more open than 546 00:31:11,116 --> 00:31:14,196 Speaker 1: the past. And this form of democracy has been really 547 00:31:14,236 --> 00:31:17,036 Speaker 1: set in place for about a hundred years now, fifty 548 00:31:17,076 --> 00:31:19,876 Speaker 1: to one hundred years. If it has an open future, 549 00:31:20,236 --> 00:31:23,036 Speaker 1: it's going to look radically different. And say, we're at 550 00:31:23,076 --> 00:31:27,556 Speaker 1: the start of that. It's challenging, it's scary, but it 551 00:31:27,636 --> 00:31:32,116 Speaker 1: could be hugely exciting. And I don't think we've I 552 00:31:32,116 --> 00:31:34,076 Speaker 1: don't think we've opened our minds up to that yet 553 00:31:34,356 --> 00:31:37,396 Speaker 1: enough because we're too preoctopied with Brexit and Trump and 554 00:31:38,276 --> 00:31:43,036 Speaker 1: say they are the signals not of fascism or populism 555 00:31:43,156 --> 00:31:45,516 Speaker 1: or racism. I mean, they do signal those things, but 556 00:31:45,596 --> 00:31:47,476 Speaker 1: say they're not the signal that that's what's coming down 557 00:31:47,476 --> 00:31:50,036 Speaker 1: the track. They're signaling that what's coming down the track 558 00:31:50,596 --> 00:31:54,596 Speaker 1: is meaningful change. They are not the meaningful change. There 559 00:31:54,676 --> 00:31:57,116 Speaker 1: is optimism to be found in a midlife crisis too. 560 00:31:58,236 --> 00:32:03,476 Speaker 1: It's very good to hear the chastened realist, nevertheless optimistic 561 00:32:03,516 --> 00:32:06,756 Speaker 1: picture of what the future could hold. And I'm very 562 00:32:06,756 --> 00:32:09,516 Speaker 1: grateful to David for speaking to us and share that, 563 00:32:09,916 --> 00:32:12,156 Speaker 1: and then perhaps the next time we speak we can 564 00:32:12,716 --> 00:32:16,796 Speaker 1: talk about the end of the end and how old 565 00:32:16,796 --> 00:32:19,916 Speaker 1: age reaches everyone, even if it doesn't come in the 566 00:32:19,996 --> 00:32:22,756 Speaker 1: form of total collapse. But we have some time for 567 00:32:22,796 --> 00:32:25,676 Speaker 1: you to write your next book on that topic or another. 568 00:32:25,716 --> 00:32:34,956 Speaker 1: Thank you again very much for your time. David Runsman 569 00:32:35,316 --> 00:32:38,556 Speaker 1: likens the challenges facing democracy in Britain and the US 570 00:32:38,636 --> 00:32:42,636 Speaker 1: to a midlife crisis, and, in his faintly optimistic view 571 00:32:42,636 --> 00:32:45,716 Speaker 1: about how such midlife crises come to an end, he 572 00:32:45,796 --> 00:32:49,636 Speaker 1: thinks that will slowly take on a better stage of life, 573 00:32:50,196 --> 00:32:53,716 Speaker 1: one with gradual changes in institutions, rather than a genuine 574 00:32:53,756 --> 00:32:56,796 Speaker 1: crash and burn for the institutions of democracy as we 575 00:32:56,876 --> 00:33:00,236 Speaker 1: know them. Is he right well to find that out, 576 00:33:00,276 --> 00:33:03,116 Speaker 1: We're going to have to watch developments very very closely, 577 00:33:03,476 --> 00:33:06,436 Speaker 1: and we're gonna have to pay special attention to the 578 00:33:06,516 --> 00:33:10,596 Speaker 1: question of whether we actually develop new approaches and methods 579 00:33:10,596 --> 00:33:14,476 Speaker 1: for solving our democratic problems, like changes in our fundamental 580 00:33:14,476 --> 00:33:17,436 Speaker 1: political parties, or whether we actually, the way a lot 581 00:33:17,436 --> 00:33:20,276 Speaker 1: of people do after a midlife crisis, just go back 582 00:33:20,316 --> 00:33:23,876 Speaker 1: to the same old, same old. The test will come 583 00:33:24,076 --> 00:33:26,996 Speaker 1: especially in the years after Britain in fact leaves the 584 00:33:27,036 --> 00:33:30,636 Speaker 1: European Union, if it ultimately does, and after Donald Trump 585 00:33:30,676 --> 00:33:33,596 Speaker 1: is no longer President of the United States, then we'll 586 00:33:33,636 --> 00:33:37,716 Speaker 1: see whether we return to ordinary politics, to ordinary politicians, 587 00:33:38,036 --> 00:33:40,956 Speaker 1: or whether the changes wrought by this moment of crisis 588 00:33:41,116 --> 00:33:44,636 Speaker 1: are lasting and significant. Runsman thinks they will be, but 589 00:33:44,676 --> 00:33:47,516 Speaker 1: it seems entirely possible to me that we may end 590 00:33:47,596 --> 00:33:56,196 Speaker 1: up right back where we started. Deep Background is brought 591 00:33:56,196 --> 00:33:59,396 Speaker 1: to you by Pushkin Industries. Our producer is Lydia Jane Coott, 592 00:33:59,476 --> 00:34:03,476 Speaker 1: with engineering by Jason Gambrell and Jason Rostkowski. Our showrunner 593 00:34:03,516 --> 00:34:06,636 Speaker 1: is Sophie mckibbon. Our theme music is composed by Luis Gara. 594 00:34:07,196 --> 00:34:10,676 Speaker 1: Special thanks to the Pushkin Brass. Welcome Gladwell, Jacob Weisberg 595 00:34:10,716 --> 00:34:13,476 Speaker 1: and Miah Lobel. I'm Noah Feldman. You can follow me 596 00:34:13,516 --> 00:34:17,116 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Noah R. Feldman. This is Deep Background.