1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg Right Now. 5 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: On the virus, A definitive conversation on COVID with Deborah 6 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 1: Fuller of the University of Washington School of Medicine and 7 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 1: Microbiology Professor. I can't say enough about the esteem of 8 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:41,559 Speaker 1: their program, Dr Fuller, I want to go to the 9 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 1: idea that we were all afraid of measles and maybe 10 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 1: EXCEENNI vaxers were less afraid of measles now and there's 11 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,200 Speaker 1: different variants of measles D four B to whatever those 12 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 1: numbers are. Are the variants of this virus to be 13 00:00:56,040 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: treated like the variants of other things we've contained, or 14 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 1: the variance here different. The variance here could be could 15 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 1: be quite different. And that's just because we have increasing 16 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:12,839 Speaker 1: evidence that some of these new stars COPE two variants 17 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 1: are not only gaining an ability to transmit more efficiently, 18 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: but developing mutations that could potentially evade uh antibody I 19 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:29,119 Speaker 1: mean responses, and that would potentially suggest that our current vaccines, Uh, 20 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 1: it might, it might impact our the efficacy of our 21 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 1: current vaccines. Now, our vaccines are very high efficacy, much 22 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 1: higher than so we're not talking about complete loss of 23 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 1: protection by the vaccines. We're talking about a bit of 24 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 1: a decline that's say maybe, and that's still a very 25 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 1: very effective vaccine. But it's something that as vaccinologists we 26 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 1: keep an eye on because gets to a certain threshold, 27 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: we may get to a point where we have to 28 00:01:57,440 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 1: update those vaccines. With Dr Fullers, some people would put 29 00:01:59,880 --> 00:02:02,560 Speaker 1: this as a race, basically a race to get enough 30 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: people vaccinated before the virus mutates enough to set you 31 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 1: back further and cause an increased circulation of the virus. 32 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 1: How are we doing in that race? Yeah, it truly 33 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 1: is a race between viral evolution and vaccination rate. The 34 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: goal is to reach herd immunity. We are currently estimating 35 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 1: about of the population immune to be able to shut 36 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: down this pandemic. But herd immunity depends on two things, 37 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 1: and one is how transmissible is the virus and how 38 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:37,359 Speaker 1: efficacious is your vaccine. So as the virus mutates, and 39 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 1: we talked about that that it commutate to increase transmission 40 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:46,360 Speaker 1: and potentially reduce vaccine efficacy. That raises the bar in 41 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:48,680 Speaker 1: terms of how many people we have to vaccinate. So 42 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 1: it's like this the cycle that pushes our goal posts 43 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 1: further down the line, So it truly is a race 44 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:58,520 Speaker 1: and dr piller. Perhaps this is sort of an underappreciated 45 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:02,679 Speaker 1: aspect of this pandemic. People expecting recovery and yet not 46 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:05,959 Speaker 1: necessarily understanding how much this new strain of virus that 47 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 1: is more transmissible, possibly potentially according to some reports, more virulent, 48 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 1: how much that has accelerated the spread of the pandemic. 49 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 1: How much has that set us back in terms of 50 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 1: a need to vaccinate more people, Otherwise we're gonna be 51 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 1: dealing with lockdowns and other types of social distancing measures instead. 52 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 1: I think I think we started here hearing early on 53 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 1: when we started talking about her community, we're thinking sixty 54 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 1: six and now what we're hearing is and that could 55 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 1: even go go higher. And of course that's a huge 56 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:41,119 Speaker 1: difference in terms of the numbers of people that will 57 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 1: need to receive the vaccine to get to that point. 58 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 1: And the more people you have to vaccinate, the longer 59 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 1: is going to take to get there. Should we assume 60 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: we will see a traditional vaccine work with some challenges today? 61 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: All the way J and J other experts like you 62 00:03:56,360 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: Dr Fuller talking about the efficacy of a more traditional vaccine, 63 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 1: do we need that in terms of more traditional vaccines like, uh, 64 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 1: like you mean, like the kinds that we had before 65 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 1: the RNA vaccines. Yeah, so, so the j J one 66 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 1: that's coming out, I would not categorize that as traditional. 67 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: That's actually kind of new as well. Is just using 68 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 1: a different way to deliver a genetic material into ourselves 69 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:25,799 Speaker 1: so that we can produce the vaccines. So it's actually, 70 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 1: in some respects quite similar to the URNA vaccines. And 71 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 1: the vantage of both of these types of vaccines is 72 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:36,279 Speaker 1: that should the virus undergo uh an evolution where it 73 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 1: is starting to reduce their efficacy, they are what we 74 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 1: call plug and play vaccines are very very quick to update. 75 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 1: You just have to swap out the genetic material and 76 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 1: the way you go to producing them. In the past, 77 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 1: our traditional vaccines would take somewhere between eight to nine 78 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 1: months to update. These ones, They're going to be weeks, 79 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:56,520 Speaker 1: uh maybe a month to start to get back out again. 80 00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 1: So this is that's good news for us that these 81 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 1: are the types of X means that can that can 82 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:03,920 Speaker 1: chase that viral evolution much quicker. To just to wrap 83 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:05,719 Speaker 1: things up, could we just get your assessment of the 84 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:09,599 Speaker 1: administration's goal to vaccinate one million Americans per day for 85 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:13,279 Speaker 1: a hundred days. We're already around those levels and have 86 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:15,719 Speaker 1: been now for about a week or so. I wander 87 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 1: from your perspective, doctor, whether the goal itself is just 88 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:21,159 Speaker 1: not bold enough or whether there will be supply issues 89 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 1: down the road that we need to address at the 90 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 1: moment that actually make that one million rate quite optimistic. Right. Well, 91 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 1: it it sounds impressive, but but it may not be enough. 92 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:34,440 Speaker 1: I think it's a good start, uh, to get to. 93 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 1: But if we want to get to a goal where 94 00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:39,160 Speaker 1: we keep talking about wanting to sort of be mass 95 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 1: free by labor Day or something, uh, we're probably going 96 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,719 Speaker 1: to need to start there and then quickly accelerate maybe 97 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 1: double or even triple that rate to get to there. 98 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:51,159 Speaker 1: But I think once some mechanisms are in place to 99 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 1: to achieve that consistently a million doses a day, then 100 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:57,719 Speaker 1: that that's the kind of thing they could leverage to 101 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 1: continue to increase the rate and double and even triple 102 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 1: that just quickly. Do you have a place holder on 103 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:06,960 Speaker 1: the calendar. It's the remarker out there for you that 104 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:09,359 Speaker 1: you're thinking about when things not to get pet that 105 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 1: restriction start to be removed again. Well, I always keep 106 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 1: telling people that I'd love to have a mass free 107 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:17,920 Speaker 1: day by Labor Day. But you know, and and it 108 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 1: goes from the perspective of you know, I've runed the 109 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 1: lab of twenty people, many of them are young parents 110 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:25,440 Speaker 1: who are eager to see those kids go back to 111 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 1: school in the fall and get things back to normal. 112 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 1: Don't appreciate time come back, saying Dr of the University 113 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 1: of Washington School of Medicine television. This John mentioned China. 114 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 1: As we heard President at the Davos Agenda. We now 115 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 1: speak to truly an authority on this. George Magnus is 116 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 1: at Oxford University's China Center. We're thrilled he could join 117 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:55,160 Speaker 1: us after his wonderful, hugely, hugely readable effort red Flags. 118 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:57,599 Speaker 1: George Magnus, thrilled to have you on this day where 119 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 1: the leader of China speaks. What did not say? He's 120 00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:06,080 Speaker 1: very good, it's saying the appropriate things what did he 121 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: not speak of? Well, I only heard kind of brief 122 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 1: snippets of his address. I mean what he what he 123 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 1: didn't say actually, of course other things that you would 124 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 1: never expect him to say, which, of course are you know, 125 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 1: the nuances about China's economic recovery. I mean, he he 126 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: does talk about, you know, we mustn't have a cold 127 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 1: war mentality, which he didn't say he was partially responsible 128 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 1: for injecting into the global system. He did say that 129 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: decoupling leads to division, which is obviously appointed remark of 130 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 1: the United States, not saying that actually China has been 131 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: doing selective decoupling for years. Um. And he did say 132 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 1: that openness and inclusiveness are really important, which is something 133 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 1: that he didn't say China doesn't really practice. So um, 134 00:07:57,680 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 1: you know, there's a there's a lot of the things 135 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: that he said that are the opposite of actually what 136 00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 1: actually takes place in the country in the country. And George, 137 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 1: this is the big question, isn't it. What can the 138 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 1: incoming administration do to actually change the behavior of China. 139 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 1: Getting them to say the right things on the international 140 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 1: stage of the world with economic forum, that's one thing. 141 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 1: Getting them to act differently is another. Do you expect 142 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 1: a change in approach from the new administration in the 143 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: United States? I expect a change of tone, you know, 144 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: but not really a change of substance. And I think 145 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 1: the uh, you know, the and we've seen enough and 146 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 1: heard enough already, even though it's only like a week old, 147 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:40,080 Speaker 1: not even the administration of the appointees who are in 148 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 1: key positions, M and I don't really hear or or 149 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 1: sense any marked change of direction. So I think it 150 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 1: would be unusual, given what we know about the individuals concerned, 151 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: if there wasn't a change of tone. And certainly strengthening 152 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 1: alliance is whether that's with Europe or with the Quad, 153 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 1: so Australia, Japan and India, U much stronger overtures towards 154 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:14,480 Speaker 1: Indo Pacific countries. I mean, these kinds of things I 155 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 1: think will be forthcoming. And I think that is something 156 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:21,319 Speaker 1: which the Chinese actually we're probably fearful of and why 157 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 1: they probably didn't want him elected. But I think that's 158 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 1: that's where I think sort of the rubber is going 159 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 1: to meet the road proverbially, is sort of a more 160 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 1: united kind of front amongst countries to confront China on 161 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 1: very very important issues, but not necessarily on tariffs, which 162 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:42,200 Speaker 1: were never really going to be going to change anything. Meanwhile, 163 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:45,559 Speaker 1: financial markets have been voting between the US and China 164 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 1: and opting for China. There was data out of the 165 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 1: UN saying that China overtook the United States for the 166 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 1: first time as the world's top destination for new foreign 167 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 1: direct investments this past year, and this has been ongoing 168 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 1: with a huge shift of financial firms ring to expand 169 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 1: in China despite some of these ongoing tensions between the US, 170 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 1: UH and China. Do you think that this money is 171 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:09,880 Speaker 1: well founded in terms of its bed on the Chinese 172 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:13,199 Speaker 1: economy going forward, based on its pre eminence in how 173 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 1: it has recovered from the pandemic versus say the US 174 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 1: and Europe, well at least, so, you know, it's like 175 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 1: so many things, it is, there's so much nuanced involved. 176 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not saying that every company that puts 177 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:26,679 Speaker 1: money to work in China is you know, it is 178 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 1: kind of throwing it down the drain. But actually we 179 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 1: also have to recognize, you know, there's a lot of 180 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: self serving money that's going into China and justifying it 181 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 1: on the basis of being there for that reason. But 182 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 1: I think that, you know, the the the essence of 183 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:44,520 Speaker 1: the kind of the the the u N report or 184 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:47,200 Speaker 1: the untapped report you referred to. I mean it's not 185 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 1: you know. I mean, the world is basically kind of 186 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: imploded because of the pandemic foreign direct investment ground to hold. 187 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 1: China managed to to its credit, to with Drawconian measures 188 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 1: to suppress COVID and allow its economy to come back. Um, 189 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 1: you know reasonably well during the last part of two 190 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 1: thousand and twenty um and uh, and the FDI flow 191 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 1: is going into China went up by four percenter. You're 192 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 1: not talking about a huge kind of amount, But yeah, 193 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: I mean you know that. I mean, I do think 194 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 1: credit where credits due. I mean, they've they've certainly managed 195 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 1: to achieve and accomplish something with their economy which the 196 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,680 Speaker 1: rest of us obviously are looking at slightly green and 197 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:30,680 Speaker 1: TINGI with envy. But you know, in the fullness of time, 198 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:33,240 Speaker 1: when imagine when we get on top of our own 199 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 1: pending problems, so I think they catch up, will become 200 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 1: quite apparent. George Wrights catch up, So please come back soon. 201 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:41,600 Speaker 1: So much to talk about. Author of Red Flags, George 202 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 1: Magnus Oxford University, China Center Research Associate. And this day, 203 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 1: after all of the inauguration begin our political coverage forward 204 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 1: for President Biden and for our legislative branch. Brian Style 205 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 1: joins us now first out of the lock with the 206 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:05,959 Speaker 1: fascinating first District of Wisconsin. This is less aspens Old District. 207 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 1: And then onto Paul Ryan, who Congress Style worked for 208 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 1: and he now holds court from Jamesville in the very 209 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 1: far west of the district over to the Lake and 210 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 1: of course over to Kenosha as well. Brian, it is 211 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 1: such an interesting district and really is the polarity of 212 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 1: America from Jamesville to Kenosha. How are you going to 213 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 1: straddle that polarity forward? Southeast Wisconsin is a great place 214 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 1: to live and work. It's about hard working families getting 215 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:36,240 Speaker 1: the job done. What we need to do is actually 216 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:39,200 Speaker 1: address the policies that are impacting people in Wisconsin are 217 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 1: across the country. We gotta work to get people back 218 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,840 Speaker 1: to work, to keep America healthy, to defeat COVID, and 219 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 1: to keep our communities and our country safe. If we're 220 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:51,240 Speaker 1: focused in on the policies that matter to workers and 221 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:54,240 Speaker 1: families in Southeast Wisconsin, those are the values that matter 222 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 1: to everyone across the United States. We're gonna be able 223 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 1: to come together to move the ball forward on behalf 224 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: of the American run claim working for President Biden made 225 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:07,959 Speaker 1: clear he needs bipartisan to succeed. How can you break 226 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 1: bread with President Biden? How can you break bread with 227 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 1: Speaker Pelosi? I think there's areas where we can come together. 228 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 1: We can come together to ultimately defeat this virus, making 229 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 1: sure that we have the resources on the front lines 230 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:23,959 Speaker 1: for our nurses and our doctors, vaccine, development of vaccine rollout. 231 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 1: We can come together, I think on infrastructure. But at 232 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 1: the same time, that means Congress has to get to work. 233 00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:32,880 Speaker 1: Where we've seen on day one Joe Biden making pretty 234 00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:36,360 Speaker 1: extreme executive decisions that I think are against the interests 235 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:38,320 Speaker 1: of the American people. We're gonna have to push back 236 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 1: against that. But I think we can come together to 237 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:43,239 Speaker 1: work on some of the most pressing issues, in particular 238 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:47,319 Speaker 1: getting workers back to work. Can you get behind a 239 00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:50,959 Speaker 1: one point nine trillion dollar packet for COVID relief? What 240 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 1: we've seen is a lot of money going in and 241 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 1: providing liquidity into the market. What we need to do 242 00:13:56,440 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 1: now is begin to target that relief to those individual 243 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 1: rules who have been impacted through no fault of their own. 244 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 1: These broad brush strokes of relief, I think I have 245 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 1: a risk of overheating and putting us further into debt 246 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 1: and in particular not being good stewards of taxpayer dollars. 247 00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 1: I'd like to see us target that relief to those 248 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 1: people who have been negatively impact Think about people working 249 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 1: maybe in the service industry, your your cooks, or your 250 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 1: your frontline folks. That's where we need to target the 251 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 1: relief rather than these broad brush strokes, which are just 252 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:30,800 Speaker 1: not a good use of taxpayer dollars in some instances. 253 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 1: So if that's where the money goes, would you be 254 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: behind the one point nine trillion. I mean, if you 255 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: look at the liquidit in the markets that was provided 256 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 1: by the Central Bank, this COVID relief package would do 257 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 1: something else. I think what we would be seeing is 258 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 1: some of this is not good use of taxpayer dollars 259 00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 1: in the initial proposal. We're gonna have to see what's 260 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:50,160 Speaker 1: actually written on paper. Some of these top line numbers 261 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 1: are being floated around on Capitol Hill. What I'd like 262 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 1: to see is us narrowly tailor this to those people 263 00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: that have been impacted, rather than these big broad brush 264 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 1: strokes where they're going to try to implement all sorts 265 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 1: of policy objectives unrelated to COVID or unrelated to getting 266 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 1: folks back to work. Okay, I ninety four moving north 267 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 1: up to lake. It's part of your headache as well. 268 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 1: If we have stimulus, and congressmen, you we're gonna have 269 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,280 Speaker 1: to have a bridge to nowhere infrastructure project. How do 270 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:26,200 Speaker 1: you envision infrastructure as a conservative guy? One easy opportunity 271 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 1: there is, let's push forward with private sector infrastructure investment. 272 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: This is where I was so frustrated by Joe Biden's 273 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 1: decision on day one to kill the Keystone pipeline. That 274 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 1: was billions of dollars of private sector infrastructure investment, thousands 275 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 1: of jobs, hundreds of those jobs from southeast Wisconsin. Those 276 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 1: are the types of jobs that we should be able 277 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 1: to rally around. Private infrastructure investment would be critical, and 278 00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 1: I was disappointed to see Joe Biden kill the Keystone 279 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 1: Pipeline on day one of his administration. Fine, but we're 280 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 1: looking forward? Is the common ground on infrastructure? I have 281 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 1: a aged watching nothing essentially nothing get done in Washington. 282 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 1: How do Republicans provide bipartisan leadership to get to a 283 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 1: second stimulus bill that builds bridges, fixes airports, etcetera. I 284 00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 1: think the big conversation is what is the pay for? 285 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 1: How are we actually going to come together the side 286 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: of the ledger of we need to build infrastructure. I 287 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 1: think that is a broadfair, bipartisan analysis. I think the conversation, 288 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:30,000 Speaker 1: the adult conversation in the room, is going to be 289 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 1: how are we going to pay for this? Is it 290 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 1: a look towards raising everyone's taxes? Are we gonna find 291 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 1: areas where we can provide efficiency and cut spending? Elsewhere? 292 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 1: Can we use user fees? That's the adult conversation we 293 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:42,920 Speaker 1: have to have in the room. I think there is 294 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 1: consensus on the side of the ledger of we need 295 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 1: to invest in infrastructure. I'd like to see a conversation 296 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 1: about how we can be thoughtful, productive stewards of taxpayer dollars, 297 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 1: but also moving forward with that infrastructure investment. A congressman, 298 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 1: I've got to ask, and I know you're crushed. We 299 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 1: were frankly looking for your entreur to cancel you today. 300 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 1: The Green Bay Packers kicked a field goal. Congressman, help 301 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:11,840 Speaker 1: me here, Paul Ryan, never want to let that happen. Bad, 302 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:14,639 Speaker 1: bad decision. You gotta go for the touchdown when you 303 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 1: have one of the best red zone offenses in the 304 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 1: league with two minutes left. That's a decision that's gonna 305 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 1: haunt us until next season, for sure. I mean, this 306 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 1: is the Democrats fault, isn't it's we got somebody to 307 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:30,760 Speaker 1: blame for that. That's a bad that's a bad football 308 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 1: talk for I know, I know, Congressman. I know you 309 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:39,359 Speaker 1: condemned the mob that you know insurged on Capitol Hill 310 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 1: on January six, but you also voted against impeaching Donald Trump. 311 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:47,280 Speaker 1: Does Donald Trump still have a place in the Republican Party. 312 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:50,360 Speaker 1: I think we need to hold the criminals they came 313 00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 1: into the Capitol accountable. We always need to hold people 314 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:56,159 Speaker 1: accountable for their actions. I'm a big tent Republican. I 315 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:58,640 Speaker 1: think there's plenty of room for lots of folks about 316 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 1: how we're going to move the all forward. I don't 317 00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:04,199 Speaker 1: think I'm teaching the president as productive. I voted against it. 318 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:06,680 Speaker 1: I think the Senate should pass it aside and get 319 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 1: on with the work of the American people. The American 320 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 1: people want to get folks back to work, They want 321 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 1: to get America healthy. We need to keep our community safe. 322 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 1: Let's put partisan politics aside and get on with the 323 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:20,000 Speaker 1: work of the American people. Right. But so, where do 324 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 1: you see Donald Trump fitting in the Republican Party. I 325 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 1: think he's a terrific voice about cutting taxes, about lowering 326 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: the regulatory burdens. I think he should be a continuing 327 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 1: voice to advance us on good, solid conservative policies going forward. 328 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:36,439 Speaker 1: The bigger the tent. We need more people on the 329 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,600 Speaker 1: Republican side, more people in the conservative movement to move 330 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:43,359 Speaker 1: our country forward, not less. You've got some demographic challenges there. 331 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 1: We'll come back to you, Congressman next time. Green Bay 332 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:50,680 Speaker 1: explains what the hell happened there? That was absolutely extraordinary. 333 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 1: He is from the first district of Wisconsin, is far 334 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 1: away from Green Bays. You can get this morning, Congress 335 00:18:56,760 --> 00:19:03,159 Speaker 1: and Style, thank you so much. Right now, as we 336 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 1: spoke to Mr Style of Wisconsin an hour ago, we 337 00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 1: speak with Mr Evans of Philadelphia and Pennsylvania. His district 338 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 1: is important, it is hugely democratic in guidance, and he 339 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 1: is the leader of the third district of Pennsylvania were 340 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:22,439 Speaker 1: throwed the Congressman Evans could join us. UH this morning, 341 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:26,640 Speaker 1: Dwight Evans. You have a new Congress, You're in charge, 342 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:30,000 Speaker 1: You've got a president. You've got your house again, and 343 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:33,920 Speaker 1: lo and behold fifty fifty. Vice President Harris will give 344 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:37,119 Speaker 1: that important voice in the vote in the Senate. What 345 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 1: does your team need to do to affect policy? I 346 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 1: think person said good morning too, and I think that 347 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 1: what we need to do is attempt to bring people 348 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 1: together within the Congress. I think that President Biden and 349 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 1: Vice President Harris the attempt to bring people together. The 350 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 1: first crusted device. We must crush the virus. There's a 351 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:07,360 Speaker 1: direct connection between crushing of virus and the economy. UH 352 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 1: coming back. You need to do both of those combinations. 353 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:15,440 Speaker 1: And I believe that President Biden Vice President has will 354 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 1: demonstrate that type of leadership. So they will first start 355 00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 1: off with the facting distribution and in the initiative that 356 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 1: the President has put forward is the initiative of the 357 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:35,679 Speaker 1: distribution of the vaccine, which I think is very essential 358 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 1: in terms of dealings problems. The second part of it 359 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:43,119 Speaker 1: is dealing with the economy and dealing with the economy 360 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:49,240 Speaker 1: in terms of small businesses, investing in infrastructure like schools, 361 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 1: reopening those types of and and the president um elect 362 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,879 Speaker 1: or the president as he stated, it is basically attempting 363 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 1: to deal with both sides, UH, the Democratic Republicans, and 364 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 1: I think that we're in a good positions over that. 365 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: Chris fran surely chosen got the Black Caucus going. Charles 366 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 1: Wrangle renamed it in the seventies. I believe it was. 367 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 1: And you know, you now provide important leadership there. You 368 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,800 Speaker 1: weren't joined by Reverend Warnock of Georgia, and you're also 369 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 1: joined by a Vice President of the United States with 370 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,920 Speaker 1: an historic heritage. How will the new Black Caucus look 371 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:29,360 Speaker 1: going forward? Well, I think that the new Black Caucus, 372 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,639 Speaker 1: UH will look where it wants to get something done, 373 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 1: which is very essential. We know that either party cannot 374 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:41,600 Speaker 1: do it by themselves and that's the reality. So the 375 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:45,160 Speaker 1: Black Caucus was, I think will tend to bomban alliance 376 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 1: to attack the virus and then figure out how you 377 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 1: deal with small businesses. That's very important in terms of rebuilding, 378 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:58,240 Speaker 1: building back this economy back. That's the reality that we face. 379 00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,800 Speaker 1: I believe that the pre than it is given the 380 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:05,680 Speaker 1: opportunity can do those things. You're not talking about somebody 381 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 1: who is new at this UH. President Biden vice president 382 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:15,360 Speaker 1: has have the skill set when you look at historically 383 00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:20,720 Speaker 1: president experience, he has shown years of experience in the 384 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:24,639 Speaker 1: Senate Vice president United States. He has what I believe 385 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 1: that's there. You're talking about sixty members in the Congressional 386 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 1: Black Caucus. You're talking about six members on the Ways 387 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,240 Speaker 1: and Means Committee. So I think when you look at it, 388 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:37,160 Speaker 1: you basically have people who have the ability to bring 389 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 1: it together. He's given the opportunity to UH to implement 390 00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 1: division and the agenda that he has representative. There's a 391 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 1: question about impeachment at this point and the wisdom behind 392 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:52,640 Speaker 1: going forward with the trial given the immediacy of both 393 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:56,159 Speaker 1: the vaccination rollout as well as the aid needed to 394 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 1: get to people. Do you think that it is a 395 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 1: mistake to move ahead so quickly with impeaching the former 396 00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 1: President Trump. I believe we can do more than one thing. 397 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:10,120 Speaker 1: I believe it's a question of accountability. The House has 398 00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 1: voted for impeachment and that has now passed those to 399 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:17,600 Speaker 1: the Senate. I believe that we can conduct vote, we 400 00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 1: can implement the agenda regarding the virus and the economy, 401 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,240 Speaker 1: and we also can deal with the impeachment. It is 402 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:29,280 Speaker 1: a question of accountability. You can't ignore, you know. It's 403 00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:33,119 Speaker 1: not like the Constitution has written somewhere in there where 404 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,679 Speaker 1: some document where it states that you can avoid the 405 00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:41,840 Speaker 1: aspect of accountability. No one is above the question of accountability. 406 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,280 Speaker 1: I believe that process will be conducted in a very 407 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,679 Speaker 1: fair open way and we should move forward. The Congressman, 408 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,000 Speaker 1: thanks for being with us this morning, and we appreciate 409 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,400 Speaker 1: your patience as we had some technical problems just moments ago. 410 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,879 Speaker 1: Please come back soon. Democratic Congressman that Dwight Heavens of 411 00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:03,639 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania Duck Cass now with Seabreez and we'll do the 412 00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 1: equity markets here. I know Doug's loaded the boat on 413 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 1: game Stop, so we'll see how that's going. He's gonna 414 00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 1: buy the rest of the state of Florida here when 415 00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,119 Speaker 1: he clears that trade. But we have to start with 416 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 1: Henry Aaron Doug Cass. When I heard that Henry arn Uh, 417 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 1: I just waited for Tom Boswell of the Baltimore Son 418 00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:24,920 Speaker 1: and the Washington Post to published one of our great writers. 419 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:30,720 Speaker 1: And Tom Boswell absolutely nailed our ute and I, Doug, 420 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:33,439 Speaker 1: I think this needs to be said. The media for 421 00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 1: baseball in our childhood was East Coast, Big City American League. 422 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:42,040 Speaker 1: The National League barely existed, particularly when the two teams 423 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:45,679 Speaker 1: from New York abandoned New York and Doug cass. For 424 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 1: me and my childhood, Henry Aaron was a box score 425 00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:52,760 Speaker 1: and he was on with Dizzy Dean on Game of 426 00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,320 Speaker 1: the Week every once in a while, and that's all 427 00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 1: we knew about the guy. Yeah, I think that from 428 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:05,040 Speaker 1: my vamped point, um tom seven home runs were impressive, 429 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,679 Speaker 1: But to me it was the manner and the grace 430 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:13,840 Speaker 1: of hammering Hank when he confronted the force of racist 431 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 1: vitriol in his pursuit of Babe Ruth's home run record. 432 00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:21,040 Speaker 1: I think that many forget how vicious the attacks were 433 00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:24,480 Speaker 1: on app. It was really an ugly moment for America, 434 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:28,399 Speaker 1: for baseball and for American sports. It was dug in 435 00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,200 Speaker 1: and let's go to that because I you know, I'm 436 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,520 Speaker 1: thinking about Edward Matthews is my father called him and 437 00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:37,640 Speaker 1: and all that go into the later part of his career. 438 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 1: He's already iconic, and then in the pursuit of that 439 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:47,919 Speaker 1: iconic record. He just did it day after day, and 440 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:52,240 Speaker 1: there was a grind to it that everybody he was 441 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:56,800 Speaker 1: to hitting Tom that Sandy was two pitching um. They 442 00:25:56,840 --> 00:26:00,680 Speaker 1: started their major league baseball careers only one year apart. 443 00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:03,479 Speaker 1: There only one year difference in age. I know if 444 00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,520 Speaker 1: you knew that. But even my cousin Sandy couldn't put 445 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:09,720 Speaker 1: Aaron away. I think that Aaron was one of only 446 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 1: five players to hit over three hundred during his career 447 00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:17,120 Speaker 1: against Sandy. But what was really impressive was his slash 448 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,919 Speaker 1: line against Sandy. For those that don't know baseball like 449 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:24,120 Speaker 1: we do, that's batting average, on base percentage, and slugging average, 450 00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 1: and it was. His batting average against Sandy was three 451 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:31,199 Speaker 1: sixty two, his on base percentage was thirty, and I 452 00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:35,000 Speaker 1: believe his slugging at at average was close to six fifty. 453 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,160 Speaker 1: Doug Before we get to the markets, one more from 454 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:39,000 Speaker 1: me on on Henry Aaron what I and he was 455 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,680 Speaker 1: just before my time? But you know what, looking at 456 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:43,719 Speaker 1: some of the statistics, there's so many that jump out 457 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:45,399 Speaker 1: at you, but one of the ones that really jumps 458 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:47,480 Speaker 1: out of me in this day and ages, he played 459 00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,800 Speaker 1: almost every game every year, well there was a hundred 460 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,840 Speaker 1: fifty four games, a hundred sixty two games, no day offs, 461 00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,639 Speaker 1: you know, a day game after a night game. You 462 00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,440 Speaker 1: only played ten games in a row. He played every 463 00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:04,080 Speaker 1: single day, right and play and the great pictures completed 464 00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 1: almost every game. That game was much different than that 465 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,240 Speaker 1: the one M Paul one. The one stat that comes 466 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 1: out to me was that he's starting salary in um 467 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:20,679 Speaker 1: N was six thousand dollars, but his ending salary was 468 00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:26,399 Speaker 1: only two thousand dollars. Yeah, just extraordinary, different time and place. 469 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:30,040 Speaker 1: All right, Doug, we're starting here into earning season. Here, 470 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,560 Speaker 1: give us us how important is this earning season for you, 471 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:37,240 Speaker 1: as at least the actual numbers that get printed versus 472 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:39,800 Speaker 1: maybe some of the guidance we hear from some of 473 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:44,120 Speaker 1: these executives. I think the earning season is, um it's 474 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,960 Speaker 1: somewhat irrelevant because there's a rear view mirror. And I 475 00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:51,000 Speaker 1: also also think, um Paul, it's it's taking a back 476 00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:56,000 Speaker 1: burner and on the front burner is is this pandemic 477 00:27:56,080 --> 00:28:00,480 Speaker 1: era central banking which is creating bubbles everywhere. If the 478 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,280 Speaker 1: market was a song, it would be the Tin Pally, 479 00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:07,359 Speaker 1: the Tin Pan Alley hit. I'm forever blowing bubbles um, 480 00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,200 Speaker 1: and for John Faroh Tom, I would mention to him 481 00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,640 Speaker 1: that the song is currently the anthem of the English 482 00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:18,480 Speaker 1: Premier League club west Ham. UM. So I think we're 483 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,720 Speaker 1: in the final phase of speculation. Speculation is running a 484 00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:25,800 Speaker 1: muck upon us. It's probably spelling doomed for the eleven 485 00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:30,439 Speaker 1: year bull market. Most should prepare. Most should not short, 486 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:34,600 Speaker 1: but most should prepare for this by reducing risk profile. UM. 487 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,640 Speaker 1: What's really concerning to me is that speculative behavior has 488 00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:43,520 Speaker 1: become normalized. Many are really enjoying small caps backs, large 489 00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:47,640 Speaker 1: cap testa speculations is growing ever more irrational. It's almost 490 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,280 Speaker 1: like a Janis Joplin song get a while you can, um, 491 00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,080 Speaker 1: but history rhymes, and this is typically the last gas 492 00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,400 Speaker 1: of a bull market. And I think that the ute, 493 00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:02,480 Speaker 1: the young investors like Willie Sutton are attracted to these worthless, 494 00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:06,720 Speaker 1: sometimes worthless, shiny objects of speculation because, to quote Sutton 495 00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,239 Speaker 1: when asked why Rob's banks, that's where the money is. 496 00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:12,920 Speaker 1: So that today the money is in speculation and SPACs 497 00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 1: and other you jaws epitomize that speculation. And every speculative 498 00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,880 Speaker 1: cycle has an outlandish example of gambling and speculation today. 499 00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:25,640 Speaker 1: It is games stop symbol gm e W traded at 500 00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:30,480 Speaker 1: ten this morning. Do what should our more traditional investor 501 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:34,400 Speaker 1: to listen to US worldwide and across this nation. They're 502 00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,600 Speaker 1: not in those things. They have money in their pension plan. 503 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,560 Speaker 1: Maybe they have an investment account as well. You can't 504 00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:43,680 Speaker 1: tell me they should go to cash, you know, all 505 00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:45,560 Speaker 1: of them. I mean, what do they do? Given the 506 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:51,040 Speaker 1: foolishness they observe future short most should probably increase the 507 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:55,520 Speaker 1: cash reserves relative to historic parameters. I personally find a 508 00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:58,080 Speaker 1: record low number of stocks that meet my standards for 509 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:02,160 Speaker 1: purchase today and UM. I would say, for the second 510 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,239 Speaker 1: time in the last few years, it's my view that 511 00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:08,280 Speaker 1: investors with the one or two year timeframe UM should 512 00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:12,160 Speaker 1: sell many of their equities UM. The most important thing 513 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,480 Speaker 1: in looking at the larger cap stocks away from the 514 00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:18,800 Speaker 1: speculation tom is that almost every traditional valuation metric is 515 00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:24,280 Speaker 1: approaching all time highs. I have actually ten indicators, things 516 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:29,680 Speaker 1: like median enterprise value to sales, Warren Buffett's favorite UM 517 00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:34,760 Speaker 1: sentiment stat market cap to g d P, enterprise value 518 00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,520 Speaker 1: to free cash flow, medium price to sales, medium price 519 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:45,360 Speaker 1: to book, etcetera, etcetera, and they're all actually the historical percentile. So, Doug, 520 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,160 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, obviously the bull cases you're well 521 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,640 Speaker 1: well aware, is tremendous. Look liquidity in the marketplace. Uh, 522 00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,479 Speaker 1: the economy globally is going to set to open up 523 00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 1: in the second half of this year, presumably Uh, stimulus 524 00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:00,560 Speaker 1: around the globe. That's kind of the bull que are 525 00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:04,680 Speaker 1: you saying that's fine? But the valuation is already pressing 526 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,520 Speaker 1: that all in. I think that we have to apply 527 00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,120 Speaker 1: second level thinking, yes, Paul, Um, And I think I 528 00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:14,600 Speaker 1: look at market looking at the upside reward versus the 529 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,440 Speaker 1: downside risk, and I see the upside reward being dwarf 530 00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:22,040 Speaker 1: by that. Um, to use Ben Graham's phrase, I see 531 00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:25,080 Speaker 1: little margin of safety for most stocks. Getting back to 532 00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:29,240 Speaker 1: what you just mentioned, Um, we know that investor sentiment, 533 00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,840 Speaker 1: is measured by almost every survey, has turned from fear 534 00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:35,960 Speaker 1: to greed since March. UM. I believe that the consensus 535 00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:41,360 Speaker 1: global economic and US corporate profit growth forecasts are too optimistic. Um. 536 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 1: I think we're under playing that small US businesses have 537 00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:49,239 Speaker 1: been gutted, and we'll leave a gap in consensus projections. 538 00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:53,800 Speaker 1: And I so UM. And I also think that the 539 00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:57,000 Speaker 1: Democratic Senate may mean more stimulus short term, but also 540 00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:00,240 Speaker 1: means higher taxes on income and investments, something something like 541 00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,480 Speaker 1: Cooperman talks about. And finally, I think we have this, 542 00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:06,360 Speaker 1: this k recovery, this horrible schism between the halves and 543 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:10,160 Speaker 1: half not, and we have continued social division. It's approaching 544 00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:13,800 Speaker 1: dangerous levels, as we saw on January six, Doug Kiss, 545 00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,480 Speaker 1: here's the reality, and let's take it back to Henry Hearn. 546 00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:18,840 Speaker 1: I looked at the time of the game in nine 547 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:25,400 Speaker 1: versus now. The players today are playing thirty four more 548 00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:30,160 Speaker 1: games a year over the thirty minutes longer game now, 549 00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:34,480 Speaker 1: I mean the hundred sixty two games and they're stretching 550 00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,960 Speaker 1: it out. I mean they're to me, they're almost exhausted, 551 00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:41,880 Speaker 1: just within the grind of the entertainment of it today. Yeah, 552 00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:43,800 Speaker 1: that's a problem, the same problem. I play a lot 553 00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:47,960 Speaker 1: of golf. Um, I've had lost hits a lawyer because 554 00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:52,120 Speaker 1: of the time consumption. Um. So there's But you know this, 555 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,240 Speaker 1: I do like baseball. I like the purity of baseball. 556 00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:59,920 Speaker 1: I think you share this sentiment because that it's untimed. Yeah. Absolutely, 557 00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:01,800 Speaker 1: dot Cast, thank you so much for being with us 558 00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:04,280 Speaker 1: today on the markets and of course on the memory 559 00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:09,040 Speaker 1: of Hank Aaron, Mr Castle Sea Breeze Investments. Thanks for 560 00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:13,520 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to 561 00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:19,400 Speaker 1: interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. 562 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:23,320 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You 563 00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:26,760 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.