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Speaker 1: We're closed. You're really closed. I would say we're about

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Speaker 1: a five hour to a six hour stretch away from

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Speaker 1: two thousand and seven. If you really think about picture wreck,

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Speaker 1: you've seen a lot of vulnerability from most teams. You

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Speaker 1: haven't seen it from Ohio State, and you really haven't

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Speaker 1: seen it from Texas. Both of them play really big

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Speaker 1: games this Saturday. And you mark my words as sure

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Speaker 1: as Mema taught it to me a generation to go

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Speaker 1: in the span of six hours, everything can just revert

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Speaker 1: to O seven vibes and we may be on the

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Speaker 1: precipice of it happening. We're jam packed high top what

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Speaker 1: was a sunny downtown Nashville, Tennessee. But it gets dark

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Speaker 1: at like five o'clock here in the fall. But we're

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Speaker 1: still happy to be here, brought to you by Academy

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Speaker 1: Sports and Outdoors on this Tuesday night, October eighth. You're

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Speaker 1: our Lord, twenty twenty four. I've got so many games

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Speaker 1: on this sheet here that we're gonna be predicting all night.

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Speaker 1: I've got big time. I've got things to say. Whether

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Speaker 1: they're bigg or not, we'll see, but I got things

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Speaker 1: to say and picks to make on all these big games,

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Speaker 1: there are some huge pressure spots for some head coaches

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Speaker 1: this weekend. Just put yourself in James Franklin shoes for

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Speaker 1: a second. Put yourself in Lincoln Riley's shoes for a second.

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Speaker 1: How about Brian Kelly's shoes or Lane Kiffin' shoes. There

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Speaker 1: are some pressure spots, maybe even more so than normal

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Speaker 1: in these games. So we're gonna explain it tonight. I

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Speaker 1: got a brand new JP poll. We've got a lot

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Speaker 1: to dive into. It is jam packed Tuesday Night, his

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Speaker 1: prediction night around here, they're watching us in Morristown, Tennessee, Richmond, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: North Platte, Nebraska, Sarasota, Florida. Most of you haven't been

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Speaker 1: to a game at Autson Stadium. I've been blessed to

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Speaker 1: do it once. Will be up there Saturday night slash

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Speaker 1: afternoon local time with the whole New Saturday tour. But man,

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Speaker 1: you need to be following Instagram at late kick Josh

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Speaker 1: still because the time of year that it is up

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Speaker 1: there and the fall foliage peaking, and it's still early

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Speaker 1: enough in the fall where it's like low seventies. It's

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Speaker 1: four to thirty local time kickoff there, so it bleeds

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Speaker 1: into primetime. I imagine the footage from the sideline that

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Speaker 1: we get from the Eye Josh and just the vibe

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Speaker 1: overall will match. Ironically, another Ohio State game, Ohio State

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Speaker 1: at Notre Dame last year was about as good a

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Speaker 1: spectacle as the eye Josh ever captured on the sideline,

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Speaker 1: and I think we may match it this Saturday night.

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Speaker 1: So at Lake Kick Josh plus Friday Night Lines the

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Speaker 1: night before, make sure you're watching the speaking of that game.

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Speaker 1: Let us dive in to tonight's show. Ohio State at

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Speaker 1: Oregon Saturday, seven thirty eastern, four to thirty local kickoff

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Speaker 1: on NBC. It's basically the they haven't seen it Bowl,

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Speaker 1: because no matter which way you go on this game,

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Speaker 1: you can find a direction for Oregon or for Ohio State.

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Speaker 1: You're crux of your argument probably consists of, well, they

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Speaker 1: hadn't seen anything like filling the blank. It could be

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Speaker 1: any of a number of things. I mean Oregon right now,

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Speaker 1: they're not running the ball, great explosives, they've given up

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Speaker 1: a few. I mean Ohio State just in totality, like

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Speaker 1: what kind of quarterback have they face? All this stuff,

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Speaker 1: I've heard it all week you'll hear it all week,

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Speaker 1: so a lot of it's valid, like somebody's flaws are

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Speaker 1: going to get exposed. Maybe both teams flaws will get

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Speaker 1: exposed here. Since the start of last year, here's what

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Speaker 1: I know. This is kind of a low key paper

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Speaker 1: popper of a stat Oregon and Ohio State are number

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Speaker 1: one and number two in point per game differential in

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Speaker 1: the country. So they've been really good at beating teams

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Speaker 1: and getting margin on them. And now here we are

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Speaker 1: Ohio State favor by three and a half in autsin

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Speaker 1: That is not easy to do, just from an odds

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Speaker 1: making standpoint to be installed as over a field goal

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Speaker 1: favorite in the building of a top ten team, top

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Speaker 1: five team, according to many. We'll see what the jppole

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Speaker 1: says later tonight. Not easy to do. So the matchup

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Speaker 1: of this game, at least to me, is no mystery.

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Speaker 1: It's Oregon's defensive line versus Ohio State's offensive line. Now

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Speaker 1: that can mean many different things to many different people.

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Speaker 1: Here's what I'm thinking about. So I got Oregon here

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Speaker 1: sixth best pressure right team in the country so far

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Speaker 1: this year, Ohio State number one one and pressure rate allowed.

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Speaker 1: Now that's the kind of stat where I look at

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Speaker 1: it and I think to myself one of two things.

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Speaker 1: It's a big fork in the road moment for Ohio

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Speaker 1: State's offensive line because I don't think they're that good,

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Speaker 1: but maybe they are. I certainly don't think that pressure rate,

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Speaker 1: I mean keeping my quarterback up right and clean. I

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Speaker 1: don't think Ohio State's offensive line is that elite to

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Speaker 1: be number one in the country. But you know what

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Speaker 1: stats say otherwise right now. Numbers lie to us all

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Speaker 1: the time in this sport. Anyone who tells you otherwise

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Speaker 1: is a casual and a fool. But that's part one.

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Speaker 1: Because not only is Oregon's defensive front a lot more

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Speaker 1: athletic I think overall and deeper overall than anything that

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Speaker 1: Ohio State will have seen. They can be multiple so

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Speaker 1: they can do different things, give you different looks. And

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Speaker 1: also I have arguments all the time with some of

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Speaker 1: the advanced stat folks who think that home field does

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Speaker 1: or doesn't matter. Here's what I know, from a communication

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Speaker 1: standpoint and a side pachological standpoint. When you go out

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Speaker 1: into an environment like this, it matters. It matters case

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Speaker 1: by case. Some teams handle it better than others, but

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Speaker 1: it does matter hard. So I am looking right now

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Speaker 1: and I'm thinking about Will Howard, the quarterback there for

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Speaker 1: Ohio State. He's thrown an interception in his last three games.

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Speaker 1: It may mean something, it may mean nothing, But I

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Speaker 1: think about how in games like this, where I think

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Speaker 1: it's very compacted and I think the margins or razor

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Speaker 1: thin either way, I just think about the impact one

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Speaker 1: mistake could have, and I think about the positions that

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Speaker 1: Oregon could put him in that he hasn't been put in.

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Speaker 1: I can think of, for example, situations where Ohio State

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Speaker 1: needs to throw, well, we haven't really seen that because

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Speaker 1: Ohio State hasn't needed to do anything offensively all year.

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Speaker 1: I just think about how this is either a coming

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Speaker 1: out moment for him, not that he's an unknown commodity,

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Speaker 1: but quarterbacking this team. You got a couple of environments

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Speaker 1: here and then a couple of weeks in Happy Valley

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Speaker 1: where you're gonna have to put it all on the line,

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Speaker 1: And I really think, need you to close your ears

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Speaker 1: in ann Arbor for a second. These are the Michigan

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Speaker 1: games for Ohio State this year. I don't take anything

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Speaker 1: away from that rivalry. I got all the respect in

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Speaker 1: the world for the rivalry, but the quality of competition

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Speaker 1: this right here at Oregon and a couple of weeks

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Speaker 1: at Penn State. Those are the moments to me, more

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Speaker 1: so than the Michigan game itself, that will ultimately test

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Speaker 1: the medal of this Ohio State team this year. So

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Speaker 1: that's part one, and that's a lot of unknown honestly

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Speaker 1: because of the lack of situations they've been put into

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Speaker 1: that degree so far this year, Ohio State has had,

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Speaker 1: though no reason to show anything offensively. So the plus

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Speaker 1: side of playing a bakery in the first month of

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Speaker 1: the season, just cupcake after cupcake rolled at you is

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Speaker 1: you don't have to show what you don't want to show.

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Speaker 1: You think Chip Kelly looked at Akron in Western Michigan

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Speaker 1: and said, can't wait to unload the belt on this one?

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Speaker 1: Absolutely not. So it begs the question, with a new

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Speaker 1: offensive coordinator in town, how much of I'm not seen

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Speaker 1: and how much will I see in this game? I

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Speaker 1: haven't For example, when I watch Ohio State play this year,

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Speaker 1: I haven't seen many Will Howard designed runs. He can

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Speaker 1: do it, I just really haven't seen them use it.

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Speaker 1: I haven't seen the depth of that wide receiver room.

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Speaker 1: It's been used, but it hasn't been used. I don't

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Speaker 1: think to the degree that it can be. I haven't

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Speaker 1: seen him incorporate the tight end position a whole lot

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Speaker 1: in the passing game. Not maybe because they are not

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Speaker 1: at that position. What they were last year was stover

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Speaker 1: mooving on. But it also could be that they know

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Speaker 1: full well they can do it, and they can throw

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Speaker 1: the ball to the running backs out of the backfield,

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Speaker 1: and they can run the quarterback by design if they

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Speaker 1: want to, and it's all stuff they plan on doing,

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Speaker 1: and you just circle a game like this and get

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Speaker 1: ready to unload it. In fact, I'd be surprised to

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Speaker 1: a certain degree if that wasn't the case here Oregon

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Speaker 1: this year, probably because of personnel, but maybe also just

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Speaker 1: by schematic decision to change is run a lot more

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Speaker 1: zone than they were this time last year, or Landing

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Speaker 1: has at any point in his time at Oregon, they

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Speaker 1: haven't faced any real legitimate passing threats, though they've faced some.

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Speaker 1: They've faced some teams that put some numbers on them,

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Speaker 1: like Boise got into the mid thirties against them, and

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Speaker 1: that's really it. But they haven't faced a quarterback and

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Speaker 1: they haven't faced an offense and totality the likes of

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Speaker 1: Ohio State, and so I think about that, and I think,

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Speaker 1: I mean, most people do that against Ohio State anyway,

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Speaker 1: very very few secondaries are capable of manning up against

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Speaker 1: Ohio State. So they're used to see in that stuff.

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Speaker 1: Will Howard is used to see in that. But what

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Speaker 1: does Ohio State needing to throw the ball look like?

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Speaker 1: That to me is one of the keys of this game.

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Speaker 1: It's not that Will Howard can't do it, it's that's

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Speaker 1: the position you want to man because I think that

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Speaker 1: Ohio State will be able to run the ball here.

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Speaker 1: I think Ohio State should be able to count on

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Speaker 1: a running the ball here. When you got the two

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Speaker 1: horses in the backfield along with the quarterback who can

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Speaker 1: do it, you should be able to take that on

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Speaker 1: the road. I said at the beginning of the season

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Speaker 1: that I thought, in these big games, we can talk

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Speaker 1: about Jeremiah Smith all we want want to, Iguca, we

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Speaker 1: could talk about them all we want to, But the

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Speaker 1: ultimate key for this team to make it to the

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Speaker 1: finish line to win a championship this year was going

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Speaker 1: to be that they had to do the kind of

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Speaker 1: stuff that Michigan had done to them, and they were

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Speaker 1: just more physical than them, and they could count on

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Speaker 1: grinding out yards on the ground in winning time. Ohio

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Speaker 1: State's the kind of team that should be able to

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Speaker 1: do that. I say should be because we haven't seen

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Speaker 1: him have to do it yet this year. I think

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Speaker 1: I need to see if Oregon can do it though,

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Speaker 1: so we haven't mentioned Dylan Gabriel yet, have we. We

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Speaker 1: haven't mentioned the quarterback there at Oregon yet. I think

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Speaker 1: it's a big pressure spot for him. I think it's

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Speaker 1: a big pressure spot because I remember even back when

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Speaker 1: he transferred to Oregon. You know, I was there last

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Speaker 1: year in Dallas when he beat Texas. I mean, Dylan

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Speaker 1: Gabriel when he was at Oklahoma had a really really

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Speaker 1: big day and they had a couple of pluses and

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Speaker 1: turnover margin and they go and they beat Texas and

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Speaker 1: that was a big day for him. He ran the

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Speaker 1: ball very well that day. However, they have to do

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Speaker 1: it here. This is a huge moment for him because

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Speaker 1: when he transferred to Oregon, what I was gonna say

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Speaker 1: is a lot of folks in the scouting community circled

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Speaker 1: this game and they said, you know Gabriel's arm may

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Speaker 1: cost them against the only elite secondary that they play

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Speaker 1: all year, and folks were talking about Ohio State. So

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Speaker 1: this was back in the spring, and so I just

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Speaker 1: put it in the back of my mind. Those are

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Speaker 1: guys that grade based on a Sunday rubric talking about this.

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Speaker 1: I care about how good a college quarterback he is,

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Speaker 1: but I'd also be kidding myself if I thought there

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Speaker 1: were a whole lot of Caleb Downs on the roster

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Speaker 1: on the schedule for Dylan Gabriel. So I think that

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Speaker 1: that's a key cause. As much as I talked about

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Speaker 1: Will Howard throwing an interception in the past three weeks,

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Speaker 1: the windows are really tight in a game like this.

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Speaker 1: The athletes move a little bit faster in that secondary

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Speaker 1: opposing you in a game like this. He's been okay

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Speaker 1: so far this year. Yeah. I also watched him against

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Speaker 1: Michigan State last week and there were some egregious decisions

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Speaker 1: made in that game that were covered up because Oregon

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Speaker 1: ran away with the game. Got to get it cleaned up.

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Speaker 1: I think Oregon has disruption potential for Ohio State here.

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Speaker 1: I think Ohio State has it for Oregon. Now, Oregon

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Speaker 1: to their credit has gotten their offensive line to a

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Speaker 1: position where they should be scaling at the right time. Here,

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Speaker 1: they've gotten as healthy as they can get. They should

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Speaker 1: be good to go. Colin. Let's take a look at

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Speaker 1: what the model thinks. I'll tell you what I think.

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Speaker 1: So right now at FanDuel, we have Ohio State minus

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Speaker 1: three and a half. The model disagrees. It thinks it's

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Speaker 1: a tighter game than that. The model has this at

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Speaker 1: just Ohio State minus one and a half. I think

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Speaker 1: that it's interesting that both these teams have faced Michigan

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Speaker 1: State already, so you can get pretty good feedback from

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Speaker 1: Michigan State circles and the folks in Michigan State circles,

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Speaker 1: some of whom at least think Oregon has a little

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Speaker 1: advantage on the line of scrimmage here, isn't that interesting?

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Speaker 1: And you got home field obviously at your back, and

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Speaker 1: what's the Wilner headline out there? Big ten teams having

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Speaker 1: to travel two or more time zones are just horrific

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Speaker 1: so far this year. What I'm trying to tell you

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Speaker 1: is I think Oregon's gonna win the game out right,

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Speaker 1: very close. Nip and tut, no strong feeling, no money

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Speaker 1: that will be better on this game from me. Both

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Speaker 1: of these coaches perceptionally are placed in this position where

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Speaker 1: the public demands that they win a big game. Dan Lanning, Oh,

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Speaker 1: what is he won? Not from me? Of course? Ryan Day,

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Speaker 1: what is he won? Not from me? Of course? I

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Speaker 1: think most of that is foolish. But someone's got to

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Speaker 1: win this thing, So someone gets a big win Saturday.

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Speaker 1: It could be the first of two times they meet.

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Speaker 1: For all we know, it could be the first of

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Speaker 1: three times they meet. I believe that Oregon is charged

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Speaker 1: and ready for this moment. I also think Jeremiah Smith

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Speaker 1: could take over the game at any point, So I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think their ground game could take over the game

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Speaker 1: at any point. So it is very, very tough for

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Speaker 1: me to pick this one, but I did go Oregon

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Speaker 1: very slightly. I will take the Ducks to win as

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Speaker 1: a very very small, not that small three and a

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Speaker 1: half point home underdog. We'll see. By the way, if

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Speaker 1: you're watching, and we got a lot of live viewers watching,

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Speaker 1: which makes you subscribe to the channel, we do this

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Speaker 1: thing free all year. We appreciate it. We go to

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Speaker 1: games like this every week. This week it's Oregon, next week, well,

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Speaker 1: who knows, because we haven't made the decision yet. But

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Speaker 1: subscribing to the channel really helps us out. And it's

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Speaker 1: free and it doesn't do anything to you, it just

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Speaker 1: helps us. All right, let's move on. We got a

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Speaker 1: lot of games to pick tonight. Do you know I

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Speaker 1: have breaking news. It's not quite breaking because I think

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Speaker 1: it's public knowledge, but we're breaking it on our show.

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Speaker 1: We have got not one but two new Academy Sports

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Speaker 1: and Outdoors opening, one in Birmingham, one in Fort Myer's

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Speaker 1: Grand openings or this weekend. And you know the rule,

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Speaker 1: just like up in North Carolina last week. You know

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Speaker 1: the rule. If you show up and you prove to

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Speaker 1: us that you were there, we send five of you

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Speaker 1: chat live Supremacy. We sent out our five for this

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Speaker 1: past weekend, and so recipients in North Carolina be on

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Speaker 1: the lookout. Birmingham, Fort Myers, you're on the clock. You

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Speaker 1: prove to us you went. You take a picture in

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Speaker 1: the parking lot. That's what I prefer. You take a

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Speaker 1: picture of the receipt, you tag us, you show it

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Speaker 1: to us. We may very well be gracing you with

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Speaker 1: the chalice of Supremacy, which as we know, has been

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Speaker 1: conspicuously missing from the set, but no, it's back. Honestly,

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Speaker 1: I think this is why we haven't killed it better

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Speaker 1: in Ramannudle Express this year, because I have forsaken the

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Speaker 1: chalice of supremacy. But no more. Look that's real, that's

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Speaker 1: real liquid. That's not shoot liquid, that's real liquid. So

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Speaker 1: show up, prove to us that you were there. Chili

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Speaker 1: have supremacy, are available, can't be bought, can only be earned.

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Speaker 1: Let's continue and let's go to my Can I say this?

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Speaker 1: I think I can say this, Colin. Here's a good endpoint.

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Speaker 1: My favorite game in college football is the Red River Shootout.

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Speaker 1: Sadly I will not be there this weekend because we

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Speaker 1: will be an Oregon. And while it's not sad that

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Speaker 1: I'm going to Oregon, it's sad that all these games

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Speaker 1: got stacked up on the same day and so I

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Speaker 1: have to not be in the Cotton bol Saturday at

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Speaker 1: three point thirty for a game that should be kicking

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Speaker 1: off at high noon at Eastern. By the way, but

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Speaker 1: I'm in the minority on that one. So who cares.

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Speaker 1: Nine of the last eleven in this series decided by

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Speaker 1: one score. The spread is anything but Texas is favored

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Speaker 1: by fourteen and a half here in the one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twentieth playing of this game. Texas is coming out

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Speaker 1: of a bye, so is Oklahoma. Texas is headed into

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Speaker 1: a stretch here. It's a two game stretch. But they

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Speaker 1: got Ou in Dallas and then they got Georgia at

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Speaker 1: home boom boom. So what does that mean, Well, it

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Speaker 1: means Texas hasn't played high quality competition yet. We're going

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Speaker 1: to decide for ourselves whether we think Oklahoma is that.

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure we do think Georgia is that. So

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Speaker 1: if you're out there, my advice to you, if you

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Speaker 1: think Texas has a lot of vulnerabilities that just haven't

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Speaker 1: been exposed yet, take these fourteen and a half points

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Speaker 1: Offenduel's offering them. They will expire noon or well three

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Speaker 1: point thirty Eastern on Saturday. So if you think they

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Speaker 1: haven't been exposed, and who knows, you may be right,

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Speaker 1: here's your opportunity. Quinn viewers, we expect him to be back.

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Speaker 1: We expect him to start at quarterback for Texas. They

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Speaker 1: got a number of pass catching weapons there obviously tenth

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Speaker 1: passing offense in the country. Oklahoma seventy fifth best pass

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Speaker 1: d in the country. That's just in terms of raw

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Speaker 1: yardage given up. You can go down whatever advanced metric

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Speaker 1: road you want to. Roughly, they're going to equate to

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Speaker 1: the same thing. Oklahoma thrives on stopping that run. They've

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Speaker 1: done it well all year. Texas can probably win this

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Speaker 1: game running the ball three and a half yards per carry.

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Speaker 1: They don't need to own it on the ground. Now,

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Speaker 1: what it does is if you can't run the ball

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Speaker 1: well and you are having to throw to win, Yes,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot more variability that is mixed into the equation.

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Speaker 1: But that's Texas's game. It's not like they're uncomfortable play

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Speaker 1: in that. Here's the thing that Sark said the other

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Speaker 1: day that I think is very key. Here he said,

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Speaker 1: and I quote, We've got to be ready for things

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma hasn't put on film. That is part one of

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Speaker 1: how they pull this off. Part one of how they

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Speaker 1: pull this off is Texas is just picture it with me,

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Speaker 1: if you will. How will the upset happen? I think

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Speaker 1: part one would be they're going into the half, Texas

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Speaker 1: has scored like ten points total and everything looks discombobulated

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Speaker 1: and disjoined and whoever's doing this game. They put the

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Speaker 1: mic in front of Sark's face and he says, yeah,

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Speaker 1: they showed us a lot of looks that we hadn't

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Speaker 1: seen on film so far this year. Blah blah blah, YadA,

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Speaker 1: YadA YadA, and then they go into the half and

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Speaker 1: then hopefully you hold on for the second half. That

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Speaker 1: is how that would have to unfold. What I can't

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Speaker 1: be seeing is you turn on this game and it's

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Speaker 1: like a repeat of Ole Miss South Carolina last week

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Speaker 1: where the favorite is up to scores right out of

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Speaker 1: the gate. If that happens here, it's going to be

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Speaker 1: a long afternoon for Oklahoma. So that's part one. Part

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Speaker 1: two is Oklahoma has to have what we call a

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Speaker 1: profile buster game, which very very simply means these teams

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Speaker 1: can't play the versions of themselves that they have been

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Speaker 1: so far this year. That's what gets you. The number

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Speaker 1: on the bottom of your screen right now, that's what

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Speaker 1: gets you installed is over a two touchdown underdog. So

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Speaker 1: obviously something's got to happen different than what we've seen

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Speaker 1: so far. That's the bad news. The good news is

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Speaker 1: this is college football. It happens every Saturday. Will it

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Speaker 1: happen here? I think I go back to last week.

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Speaker 1: Remember USC at Minnesota. I'm not equating the two teams

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Speaker 1: to these two. I'm just saying, for argument's sake, think

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Speaker 1: along with me. Remember when we were watching that game

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Speaker 1: last week, we were leading up to the game, and

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Speaker 1: we circled it and said, not a great matchup for USC.

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Speaker 1: It's hard to find that in this game. But that

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Speaker 1: doesn't mean they're not there. Sometimes that they're just matchup

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Speaker 1: advantages that are not foreseeable going into the game, especially

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Speaker 1: when you're still early enough in the season where everything

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Speaker 1: about every team hasn't been tested and hasn't been exposed.

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Speaker 1: So who knows. Maybe Brent Venables and his staff they

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Speaker 1: do find something. Maybe it's one of those freak games

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Speaker 1: where we got ten or fourteen points that are generated

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Speaker 1: non offensively. You put that in the equation and you

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Speaker 1: find a way to get to twenty six points. If

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Speaker 1: you're Oklahoma, you trust your defense to be the one

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Speaker 1: that can hold Texas under that not many others will,

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Speaker 1: but you trust your defense to be that. Here's the problem.

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma has found some explosive plays this year, which that

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Speaker 1: obviously need in this game, but there haven't been many

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Speaker 1: of them. Like in the Auburn game they found a couple,

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Speaker 1: but this is one of them. You know, if you

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Speaker 1: keep the opponent low on the scoreboard, you don't have

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Speaker 1: to have a ton of them. Texas is excellent at

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Speaker 1: preventing it. That's the problem. Every time you run the

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Speaker 1: magnifying glass over the sheet here, you think you find

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Speaker 1: something with Oklahoma, well they've done this, well, yeah, but

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Speaker 1: Texas is good at preventing it. They're coming out of

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Speaker 1: a bye so you're not catching them in any spot.

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Speaker 1: Plus this is ou Texas, so you're not catching anyone

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Speaker 1: off guard anyway. Texas got twenty ninth best run defense

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Speaker 1: in the country. The Oklahoma offensive line is the key

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Speaker 1: here and it's probably why they're the size underdog they are.

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Speaker 1: I don't know what else to say. They just have

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Speaker 1: to find it. It's not there. It hasn't been there

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Speaker 1: all year. I don't know if you believe in magic,

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Speaker 1: if you believe in just bottling it up and for

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Speaker 1: one Saturday only, you just play above your skis. But

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Speaker 1: it's got to happen here. It's unlikely to happen, but

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Speaker 1: it's got to happen here. Here's the padlock stat I

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Speaker 1: think for Oklahoma to win. If this sounds like a

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Speaker 1: weird preview, it because it is, because I'm not predicting

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Speaker 1: it straight up. When we have double digit favorites, it

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Speaker 1: really does a little good to just talk about the

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00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,960
Speaker 1: game as if it's an even matchup. So when we

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Speaker 1: have games like this oftentimes I shape it as well.

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Speaker 1: If the upset were to happen, how would it happen.

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma's got to win the turnover battle plus two or better.

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Speaker 1: I think Oklahoma's third and takeaways this year, so that's good.

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Speaker 1: They have forced them. And I think, like I said earlier,

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Speaker 1: they got to find ten to I don't know, ten

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Speaker 1: to thirteen off non offensive points or at least put

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Speaker 1: your offense in plus field position to do that. This

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Speaker 1: stuff happens. It happens every single week. It's just that

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Speaker 1: sometimes it happens because you don't have your opponent's full attention.

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Speaker 1: That will not be the case here. So Colin, let's

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Speaker 1: take a look at what the model thinks, and spoiler alert,

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Speaker 1: the model agrees with our friends at FanDuel. In fact,

429
00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:26,480
Speaker 1: FanDuel has Texas minus fourteen and a half. Our model

430
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 1: has Texas minus fifteen and a half. It's been a

431
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:32,879
Speaker 1: wild year that has seen some double digit favorites just

432
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:36,479
Speaker 1: losing outright, and it feels like it's more frequent than

433
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:38,119
Speaker 1: it has been in years past. So I'm gonna tell

434
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:40,159
Speaker 1: you what I'm gonna do. Ignore all of it, and

435
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 1: I'm taking Texas to win and cover. But I'm actually

436
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 1: not betting the game number one because I think the

437
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 1: line's pretty on the money, and number two because these

438
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 1: kinds of games we got another one we're gonna do

439
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:52,399
Speaker 1: later in the show. These kind of games are the

440
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:56,640
Speaker 1: kind where I know there's a two touchdown gap there,

441
00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 1: but if the formula starts to come together for Oklahoma

442
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:01,920
Speaker 1: to play the kind of game where they cover, the

443
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,959
Speaker 1: formula may be coming together just for an outright upset.

444
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 1: That's the kind of way that I feel about this

445
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 1: sort of game. So I'm gonna take Texas to win

446
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:13,360
Speaker 1: and cover because I think the matchup's horrible for Oklahoma. However,

447
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 1: it does bear watching because rivalry means a whole lot

448
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 1: in this sport. It means a whole lot. If you

449
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 1: are headed to this game, might I suggest fueling up

450
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 1: at quick trip in fact, if you're just living life

451
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,880
Speaker 1: in general, if you own an automobile, if you need

452
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,640
Speaker 1: to cut your grass and the tank is low, might

453
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 1: I suggest Quick Trip now. I told you guys when

454
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,959
Speaker 1: Quick Trip came on board that we were working on

455
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 1: something with them above and beyond just hey, we want

456
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 1: you to go to their gas stations because they are

457
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 1: a big partner of ours, and hey, we're gonna give

458
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:47,679
Speaker 1: out some free gas. We're doing all that. I mean,

459
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 1: we've been given out tanks and gas. I gave out

460
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 1: one this morning on Twitter. So what we have found

461
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,160
Speaker 1: if you use this QR code here is you can

462
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 1: download their app. You should download their app anyway, it's

463
00:22:58,320 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 1: really good. You don't have to do any of this.

464
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 1: But if you want extra free stuff just because you're

465
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,680
Speaker 1: part of Peate State, here's what we have decided. There is,

466
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 1: as we speak, a QR code on your screen. But

467
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:11,880
Speaker 1: if you can't see that QR code, you can also

468
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 1: just look at the link in the description. You go there,

469
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,919
Speaker 1: there is a form. Again, you don't have to do

470
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 1: any of this. If you want free stuff exclusively because

471
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 1: you're a part of this show, that is where you

472
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 1: want to drop the email address. Now, I'm not going

473
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 1: to publicize this widely because they're going to give out

474
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 1: free stuff and I don't know that we want to

475
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,920
Speaker 1: be given free stuff to millions of people. However, if

476
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,880
Speaker 1: you want in on this, this is what we've arrived at.

477
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 1: There's a form right there. I'm looking down at my

478
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 1: computer screen. You can fill it out email address, just

479
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 1: drop it there and you will exclusively have ways to

480
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 1: be notified as the rest of the public is oblivious

481
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 1: that free stuff is being given away. So there you go.

482
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 1: We took care of it. I promised you we would.

483
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,160
Speaker 1: It just took a little bit longer. Okay, let's move

484
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 1: on this right here is a big game, Okay, Penn

485
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 1: State plays usc this Saturday. It's the three thirty Eastern

486
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,120
Speaker 1: Time game of the week on CBS. So Brad's there,

487
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,200
Speaker 1: Gary is there, Jennifer Dell is there. Street named Jenny,

488
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 1: and it is a pressure moment for both of these

489
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 1: head coaches. Big ten teams. So, first off, the headline

490
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 1: Big ten teams according to John Wilner, traveling two plus

491
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 1: time zones so far this year, they're one in seven

492
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 1: in conference play. Not shocking. We got two big boys

493
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 1: in that spot. This weekend, Penn State going all the

494
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 1: way to la Ohio State going all the way to Eugene.

495
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 1: Let's let's just keep our eyes peeled. It's so huge

496
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 1: for both coaches. I mean, what's the book been on

497
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:44,639
Speaker 1: James Franklin. The book's been, well, he can't win the

498
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 1: Big Game. Well, no, the book's actually been He's overrated,

499
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 1: and burn that book. We do believe in burning certain

500
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 1: books on this show, especially if they're full of lies,

501
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 1: like James Franklin is overrated. James Franklin has fallen short

502
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,680
Speaker 1: against two teams, and that is Ohio State and Michigan.

503
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 1: In fact, Penn State over the past three years twenty

504
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 1: five and oh versus everyone else zho to four versus

505
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 1: Ohio State and Michigan. So my question is, as we

506
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:13,639
Speaker 1: have expanded the Big Ten, is USC one of the

507
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 1: other teams or is USC one of the Ohio State

508
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,879
Speaker 1: Michigan caliber teams. Now, if your memory is seven days

509
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 1: or less, then you probably think that they're in the

510
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,960
Speaker 1: stack of teams that Penn State's been body bagging because

511
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 1: you just watched them lose to Minnesota. Right now, Penn

512
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 1: State goes on the road. US he gets to go home.

513
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 1: So do we see the same USC team they got

514
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 1: beat by Minnesota. Well, let's dive into it. First question

515
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:44,920
Speaker 1: I have who is Miller Moss. Sure he's the quarterback

516
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 1: at USC, but who is he really Because his first

517
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 1: three games that he's started, he was three and oho

518
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 1: seventy two percent completion guy nine point nine yards per attempt,

519
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 1: his last three games one and two sixty one percent

520
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 1: co pol guy five point five yards per attempt, and

521
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:07,399
Speaker 1: he's thrown four picks. So he is either really good

522
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,879
Speaker 1: or is terrible or somewhere in between. There's been a

523
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 1: lot of mixed bag on Miller Moss right now, and

524
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 1: he's been under duress. That's a large reason why USC

525
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:22,400
Speaker 1: currently one hundred and eleventh in America in pressure is allowed,

526
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 1: and that is not a great place to be considering

527
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 1: Penn State comes in second in the country in defensive

528
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:34,679
Speaker 1: pressure rate. More importantly, paper pop Penn State first in

529
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 1: the country in time to pressure. They get to you

530
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 1: and they get to you really really quick. So that

531
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 1: is part one that doesn't bode well. Here here's a

532
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:47,680
Speaker 1: good question. Will USC run the ball? I don't think

533
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 1: they'll have a whole lot of success running the ball.

534
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 1: If they prove me wrong and they can run the ball, boy,

535
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 1: wouldn't that alleviate a lot of what I just said.

536
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 1: So a couple of things I think are true here.

537
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 1: Number one, USC has the best passing game at Penn

538
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 1: State had I think that is unequivocally true. It's also

539
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 1: true that this is by far the best and most

540
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 1: athletic group of pass rushers that USC has seen this

541
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 1: so far this year, and lesser groups have gotten after USC.

542
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 1: So that's part one. Part two. It's true that USC's

543
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 1: defense is improved. It was hard to get worse, but

544
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 1: they are significantly improved. And I'm not backing away from that.

545
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 1: I mean, they're twenty eighth and points per game allowed

546
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 1: this year. That's wonderful, wonderful improvement. They are top fifteen

547
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 1: in past d that is wonderful improvement. Neither will matter

548
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 1: if Penn State can run the ball, and Penn State

549
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:41,919
Speaker 1: should be able to run the ball. It would be

550
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 1: shocking to Penn State people and that staff if there

551
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 1: aren't able to go out there and run the ball

552
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 1: virtually at will, but be able to run the ball.

553
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 1: Because defensive line depth, while already an issue for us

554
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: going into the season is now a growing issue and

555
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 1: we've already talked about it. We talked about it and

556
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 1: how it gave him a mismatch against Minnesota. It's an

557
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 1: even bigger mismatch here, Nick Singleton. Big game need to

558
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 1: be a big game for him coming up this Saturday.

559
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 1: He didn't play last week. We think he'll be good

560
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 1: to go this Saturday. He has three runs this year

561
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 1: forty plus. He is an explosive play on the ground

562
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 1: waiting to happen, and USC one hundredth or worse in

563
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,639
Speaker 1: the country in plays of thirty plus yards given up,

564
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 1: forty plus yards given up, fifty plus yards given up.

565
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 1: You get the score there. I think the third quarter

566
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 1: is really important in this game. If you watch both

567
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 1: of these teams, you know that USC has had to

568
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 1: come back a couple of times already this year. They

569
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 1: came back and then got margin against Wisconsin, they came

570
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 1: back against Michigan. And conversely, Penn State has not allowed

571
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 1: one hundred yards in any second half this year. So

572
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:52,719
Speaker 1: if they've got the lead at the half and you're

573
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 1: kind of hoping to repeat some of that magic, I'm

574
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 1: not sure it's there. It sounds really lopsided for Penn State.

575
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,720
Speaker 1: Oh it does. Now let me hit you with something

576
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:04,479
Speaker 1: just out of the blue. Collins. Show me what the

577
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 1: model thinks about this game. The model thinks the wrong

578
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 1: team is favored. So FanDuel currently has Penn State minus

579
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 1: four and a half. Model thinks USC wins outright. And

580
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 1: I am telling you this has been the fight of

581
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 1: the week for me because the model has nailed USC

582
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 1: games all year. We had them beaten LSU, we had

583
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 1: beaten Michigan, we had them in a dog fight against Minnesota.

584
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 1: They end up losing the game. And now the same

585
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 1: model here, this model that I hold in my hand,

586
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 1: is saying, Penn State, Yeah, I forget about all the

587
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 1: matchup disadvantages. There's gonna win outright. Are they really, like,

588
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 1: is USC really gonna win this outright? I don't know, guys,

589
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 1: I don't know to the point where I'm doing something

590
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 1: that I think is almost unethical. But almost unethical just

591
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 1: translates to strategic. That's what Memoi used to tell me.

592
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:02,960
Speaker 1: So I'll take Penn State to win in USC to cover.

593
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 1: Why not take a Penn State field goal of victory?

594
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 1: Why not? There's a ton of skill in that, right,

595
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 1: low KEI I don't have any idea what to expect here,

596
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 1: and look, my mind and looking at the matchup, thinks

597
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 1: Penn State has a significant advantage here. I also understand

598
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 1: the intangibles in play, and I understand that just blindly

599
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 1: counting on Penn State's offense to right there like that

600
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 1: is a risky proposition. I understand the travel dynamic, and

601
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 1: I do understand Lincoln Riley in his entire program, has

602
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:33,479
Speaker 1: their back against the wall. We got the classic wounded

603
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 1: animal mode situation going back home. We always love that dynamic.

604
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 1: These are non quantifiable dynamics, and so maybe we thread

605
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 1: the needle here, maybe us he finds a way to cover.

606
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 1: Maybe Penn State finds a way to win. The number

607
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 1: is four and a half after also a nice little

608
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 1: twenty seven to twenty four, nice little thirty to twenty six.

609
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 1: I don't know, but I do know, one way or another,

610
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 1: there is a head coach that will get buried under

611
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 1: an of negative headlines coming out of this one, because

612
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 1: folks already have them written like they're already saved in

613
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 1: drafts for Lincoln Riley and James Franklin. I know that

614
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 1: we have in the gulf of Mexico. Right now, what

615
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 1: a hard transition this is. We have a Category five hurricane.

616
00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 1: Now you know my proclivity for atmospheric science, so I've

617
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 1: been glued to this thing. And while I do believe

618
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 1: that this will weaken by the time it makes landfall

619
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 1: on the west central coast of Florida, remember kids and adults,

620
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 1: once you've had a Category five hurricane, that storm surge

621
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 1: is already baked in. So whether it weakens to a

622
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 1: Cat two or a Cat three, you're gonna have some

623
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 1: catastrophic storm surge. So get out while you can. I

624
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 1: know that's easier said than them, but get out. We

625
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 1: got a huge audience down there in that part of

626
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 1: the country. Get out and do whatever it takes to

627
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 1: get out. But I want to remind you that landfall

628
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 1: hasn't happened yet. Helene did a couple of weeks ago,

629
00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 1: and I told you last week that we were doing

630
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,239
Speaker 1: something in the Peate State Store, and we were we

631
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 1: put specialty items up for hurricane relief. We made some

632
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 1: T shirts and we made them for the Carolinas, Georgia, Tennessee, Virginia,

633
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 1: and one hundred percent of the proceeds we're going to

634
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 1: relief efforts. So do we raise thousands and thousands and

635
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 1: thousands of dollars? I forgot to mention that the other night.

636
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 1: Really appreciate that from you guys, So we have immediately

637
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 1: put that resource where it needs to go. I'm gonna

638
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 1: leave them up for one more night. So I wanted

639
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 1: to remind you because the attention is going to shift

640
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 1: away from the folks in that part of the country,

641
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 1: and it's a year over year over year rebuild, like

642
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 1: they haven't even begun to get their legs under them there.

643
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,840
Speaker 1: So I want to encourage you. If you can't help,

644
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 1: I know most of you can't, that's fine. If you

645
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 1: can help, everyone's got busy lives. Please don't forget our

646
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: friends up in that part of the country, and we're

647
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,479
Speaker 1: trying to do our part not too so again, if

648
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 1: you go to Patstatemateial dot com, those specialty items are

649
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 1: still up there. We're not keeping a dying from this.

650
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 1: One hundred percent of those proceeds are going to hurricane relief.

651
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 1: And you guys came through in a big way on that.

652
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 1: They sent me the numbers, and I was shocked, but

653
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 1: I shouldn't have been shocked. So I mean, there are

654
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 1: plenty of other items on there that are just normal

655
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 1: items would have in the store. But we've been wanting

656
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 1: to prioritize this and we will continue to and who knows,

657
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 1: we may have a whole new relief effort on our

658
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 1: hands when we get back Sunday. Let's continue. Let's talk

659
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 1: about happier things here, happier times. The most unpredictable game

660
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 1: of this Yere weekend is Ole Miss versus LSU. That's

661
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 1: a Saturday seven thirty Eastern game on ABC by ten miles.

662
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 1: This is the most unpredictable game of the weekend. I

663
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 1: hope you remember if you watch this show, and we

664
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 1: do it year round, by the way, and I hope

665
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 1: you subscribe to the channel if you're new around here,

666
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:52,479
Speaker 1: but we do this show year round for free. We

667
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 1: started flagging this game, what would you say, Jesse, around

668
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 1: June or July, because as we were doing our advanced

669
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 1: stuff in our advance work on the season grid, we realized,

670
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 1: wait a second, Ole Miss goes to LSU, but Ole

671
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:10,160
Speaker 1: Miss will go to LSU with LSU off a by

672
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:13,959
Speaker 1: and LSU will be coming off a G five team

673
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 1: before that buy and LSU will not have traveled in

674
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 1: four weeks, and ole Miss will be playing their seventh

675
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:24,720
Speaker 1: straight game, and it'll be their third straight SEC game,

676
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 1: and it'll be the second leg of a back to

677
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 1: back road stretch, and ole Miss is going to be favored.

678
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 1: And sure enough, here they are ole Miss minus three

679
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:37,880
Speaker 1: and a half. It is the most tilted external dynamics

680
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 1: game of the season. Like, I don't know of any

681
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 1: of the big games that we're going to talk about

682
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:44,839
Speaker 1: all year, how many things out of your control will

683
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:47,160
Speaker 1: be tilted against one team and that team's still the

684
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:52,320
Speaker 1: favorite here as far as what you can control, aka

685
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:58,240
Speaker 1: a real football game, ole Miss's passing game could shred

686
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 1: LSU secondary with the great big caveat that Trey Harris

687
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,399
Speaker 1: has been their main go to. And Trey Harris may

688
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 1: not play Saturday. So if Trey Harris doesn't go, you

689
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 1: can just stack that on top of all the other

690
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 1: the mountain of crap that ole Miss has to deal

691
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 1: with in this game. His status is up in the air.

692
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 1: I don't think he'll be close to one hundred percent.

693
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:21,400
Speaker 1: If he does play, and he leads FBS in wide

694
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 1: receiver yards, I mean, he's got more yardage than the

695
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,359
Speaker 1: next three guys on his own team, and ole Miss

696
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 1: got a pretty deep stable of guys. But that's the star,

697
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 1: that's the alpha. He may or may not go Saturday,

698
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:34,359
Speaker 1: and if he doesn't, ole Miss should still be able

699
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 1: to have some success. It's just guys have to step up.

700
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 1: When you have your number one taken out, guys have

701
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:43,359
Speaker 1: to step up ole Miss. I mean, we look at

702
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,399
Speaker 1: the offensive versus defensive profile here, ole Miss second versus

703
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 1: LSU ninety third, just total defense, the twenty plus yard

704
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 1: pass rate. Ole Miss also second in that LSU eighty first,

705
00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:00,359
Speaker 1: So there are obvious blinking red lights here that would

706
00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 1: scream ole Miss. They get that passing game clicking. It

707
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 1: should be a go to for them all day. What

708
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:07,919
Speaker 1: if you don't have Trey Harris, though, that's the first question,

709
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 1: like who steps up for ole Miss tight end, wide receiver,

710
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 1: et cetera. Number two, here's where LSU can turn this game.

711
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 1: LSU is fourth in defensive pressure rate. And I just

712
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:23,600
Speaker 1: picture I try to picture the game, and I try

713
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 1: and picture a Jackson Dart doesn't have his go to guy.

714
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 1: Is there may be a little more hesitation or are

715
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:32,919
Speaker 1: there may be just a few more split seconds where

716
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,920
Speaker 1: everything doesn't function exactly how it should, and maybe that

717
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:39,839
Speaker 1: passing game is not flowing rhythmically exactly how it should. Well,

718
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:42,319
Speaker 1: they're eightieth in sacks allowed. So i got a good

719
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 1: pressure rate team here, and I've got a very average

720
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:48,279
Speaker 1: offensive line in terms of pressure rate allowed. That could

721
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 1: turn this thing. You got home field at your back,

722
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:52,919
Speaker 1: you got crowd noois second third down at your back.

723
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 1: Communication maybe an issue. See Ole Miss took South Carolina

724
00:36:56,200 --> 00:37:00,359
Speaker 1: out of the game early last week, and that was very,

725
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:03,760
Speaker 1: very fortunate, but it was, you know, on their own volition,

726
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 1: So credit them. They never really had to deal with

727
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 1: an extremely hostile afternoon. Just one or two series and

728
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:12,359
Speaker 1: then the game feels like it's in the bag, and

729
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:16,800
Speaker 1: it was, well, what if the thing's inverted this weekend

730
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,359
Speaker 1: and LSU grabs an early lead and it's you that's

731
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:21,800
Speaker 1: got your back against the wall, maybe without your best player.

732
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 1: That's something to watch. LSU's offense I think matches up

733
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 1: fairly well with Old Miss. Old Miss shop the run.

734
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 1: LSU can't run the ball anyway. They're not great at

735
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 1: running the ball anyway, But Old Miss is fifty eight

736
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:36,720
Speaker 1: against the pass. There are plays to be made there, plus,

737
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 1: I trust nuts coming out of a buye here in general,

738
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 1: LSU out of the buy should be effective moving the ball.

739
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:45,279
Speaker 1: I'm not betting totals because I've sucked at totals this year,

740
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:48,280
Speaker 1: but sixty three and a half is an extremely high number.

741
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,279
Speaker 1: There is a world where that thing goes obviously, there's

742
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:53,799
Speaker 1: a world where it goes over it. That is the

743
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 1: most ridiculous statement. There's a chance the over could hit, Yeah,

744
00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 1: probably about fifty percent. If I had to get if

745
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 1: I had to take a total on this, I think

746
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 1: I would lean over Ole Miss also number one sack team.

747
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 1: But but as good as they've been a getting to

748
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:13,760
Speaker 1: the quarterback, that's where it comes down to this LSU

749
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 1: tackle combo, and there have been some very mixed grades

750
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 1: on them in the offensive line grade community out there.

751
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 1: But coming out of a buyer, man, you ought to

752
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:28,399
Speaker 1: stand up and give your guy time, regardless of which

753
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:30,799
Speaker 1: accolades you have or haven't lived up to from a

754
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:34,400
Speaker 1: preseason hype perspective. We'll start now. This is your spot.

755
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 1: Start now, Colin. I'm halfway fired up. Let's take a

756
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 1: look at what the model thinks. FanDuel's got Old Miss

757
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:43,879
Speaker 1: minus three and a half. Model disagrees, mainly because of dynamics. Here,

758
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 1: the Model's got ole Miss minus one. That is not enough.

759
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 1: LSU is gonna win this game outright. I hate the

760
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 1: spot for ole Miss. I think they're the better team

761
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 1: than LSU. I do not like the spot they're in.

762
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 1: I don't like the questionable availability of Trey Harris. I

763
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:01,399
Speaker 1: think LSU is going to win this game, and if

764
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:04,279
Speaker 1: they do, let's please not get carried away with the

765
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 1: narratives because understand the dynamics of college football. However, if

766
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 1: all Miss is dealing with all that and they do win,

767
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 1: then I won't even golf clap it. I'll just like

768
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 1: full on cupped hands clap out loud and make the

769
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 1: microphone pop and make Colin go crazy in the control room,

770
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 1: because if they win this one, they have done something

771
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:26,880
Speaker 1: which sounds crazy because they're favored, so you know they

772
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 1: should quote unquote win it. They shouldn't wrong, team's favored,

773
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 1: they shouldn't win this game. They're watching us in Meridian, Idaho,

774
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 1: never heard of it before. You remember back in the day, Colin,

775
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:40,719
Speaker 1: when we first started the show and we would have

776
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 1: people check in. There was someone from Pocatello, Idaho who

777
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 1: tried to tell us the feminine version was Pokatella, Idaho.

778
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,360
Speaker 1: And I believed it because I've never been lied to

779
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 1: by someone from Idaho, and I haven't heard from them

780
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 1: in a while. But Meridian, Idaho is checking in Lubbock, Texas,

781
00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 1: Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Dayton, Ohio. They're all watching us. We

782
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 1: appreciate it. Brief time out here so I can take

783
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 1: a sip from the chalice. That's the first thing I

784
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 1: need to do. Second thing I need to do is

785
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:15,400
Speaker 1: I need to pull out the JP pole. I hold

786
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:18,000
Speaker 1: in my hands the JP pole immunity, and there is

787
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 1: a lot of movement here also immunity. And I am

788
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:26,399
Speaker 1: reminding you once again, shout it from sea to shining sea.

789
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 1: These are not rankings, obviously. If you've watched the show

790
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 1: a long time, you know what I'm about to say

791
00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:35,759
Speaker 1: is redundant. And it's not gonna matter because the same

792
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:38,439
Speaker 1: people who push back will always push back. I don't

793
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 1: care about rankings. I do not care. I do not care.

794
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 1: I just care about neutral field favorability. So as I

795
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 1: list these teams, I don't care who you haven't haven't played.

796
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 1: I don't care about head to head. I care about

797
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 1: none of this. And if you argue back to me, well,

798
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 1: why do you care about what? You care about it?

799
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 1: Because I do. If you don't like it, this is

800
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:57,879
Speaker 1: not the poll for you. This is just who would

801
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 1: be favored against who according to this model, and kind

802
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 1: of fan duel on the neutral field. So we got

803
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:05,240
Speaker 1: Ohio State as the number one team in the country

804
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:09,879
Speaker 1: right now, meaning nothing more than the model would favor

805
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,800
Speaker 1: Ohio State versus anyone. But Josh, they haven't played anyone.

806
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 1: Doesn't matter. Ohio State could have played middle school teams,

807
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 1: they would be number one right now. Texas is two,

808
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:21,280
Speaker 1: so let me read them out. Texas is two, Georgia

809
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 1: is three, Oregon is four. Bama dropped to fifth and

810
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 1: no further so right now. And I'm just gonna tell you, Colin,

811
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:31,759
Speaker 1: keep the one through five up. But I'm gonna tell

812
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 1: you Tennessee is sixth, even after they just lost. So

813
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:37,840
Speaker 1: Bama and Tennessee lost and they're at five and six,

814
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 1: and honestly, I can't even remember where the AP has them.

815
00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:44,280
Speaker 1: I know I will get disagreement there. I am telling

816
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:48,399
Speaker 1: you point blank in terms of favorability. We're right about this.

817
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 1: I mean Vegas would not all the sudden favor Clemson

818
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 1: over one of these teams, or favor Miami or whoever

819
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 1: you want to put up there over one of these teams.

820
00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:58,440
Speaker 1: So that's the first thing. The second thing you need

821
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:01,440
Speaker 1: to know is with ten See being six, there is

822
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 1: a seven point gap according to the model here between

823
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:10,400
Speaker 1: number one and number six. Now pretty sure if if

824
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 1: Texas or Ohio State took the field against Tennessee today,

825
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 1: you'd be very tempted to lay the points. I understand

826
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 1: that happens all the time. That's fine. I'm just telling

827
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:20,399
Speaker 1: you what the model thinks. And how about this. Keep

828
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 1: it up one more time, Colin, So pretend that number

829
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 1: six is written here. So Tennessee's number six. Ohio State

830
00:42:27,680 --> 00:42:33,160
Speaker 1: plays Oregon this weekend, one plays four. Next weekend, Tennessee

831
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 1: plays Bama. So six plays five. Texas plays Georgia. Next

832
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 1: weekend two plays three. Do you understand what God has

833
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 1: given us here? Over the next two weeks, the entire

834
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 1: top six plays each other. I dreamt of days like this,

835
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:51,840
Speaker 1: I dreamt about times like these, and we have them. Okay,

836
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 1: now you can roll it colin six through ten. Tennessee's

837
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:58,120
Speaker 1: number six, Miami hasn't dropped, and I got to tell you,

838
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:00,879
Speaker 1: I'm a little suspicious. The model and I have had

839
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 1: words about Miami. I don't know about that, but Miami's

840
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 1: at number seven, Ole Miss is eight, Clemson is nine,

841
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:13,839
Speaker 1: Penn State is ten. Right now, just out of curiosity,

842
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:16,800
Speaker 1: I wanted to know, model, what would you make Miami

843
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 1: versus Clemson on a neutral field? It said Miami minus

844
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 1: one and a half. My confidence in Miami is a

845
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,200
Speaker 1: little shaken at the moment. I'm not so sure I

846
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:28,320
Speaker 1: wouldn't roll the Clemson there. But that's why the model

847
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 1: and I are allowed to disagree. You know, parents can argue.

848
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 1: Myself and the model we can argue. Let's go to

849
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 1: eleven through fifteen. Notre Dame's at eleven, USC dropped four

850
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:44,560
Speaker 1: spots to twelve. LSU is thirteen. They're down five points

851
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 1: from where they started this year. But be careful with

852
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 1: LSU this week. So LSUS at thirteen, A and M

853
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:51,319
Speaker 1: is all the way up to fourteenth. That is a

854
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 1: click team. I think they're in ascension mode. They may

855
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 1: not be done climbing. Love A and M at the moment,

856
00:43:56,800 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 1: and Kansas State's at fifteen. Wonder if they've hit their ceiling.

857
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 1: So A and M and Kansas State are right there,

858
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 1: back to back Kansas State. The team profile is that

859
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:09,280
Speaker 1: of a team that probably cannot go much higher than fifteen.

860
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:11,359
Speaker 1: A and M could easily go into the top ten

861
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 1: because they have that kind of ceiling about them. Okay,

862
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:17,319
Speaker 1: so just for a second here, LSU's thirteenth right ole

863
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:21,760
Speaker 1: Miss is eighth. I think LSU will beat ole Miss

864
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:26,760
Speaker 1: this weekend. If it happens, there is a half decent

865
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:29,840
Speaker 1: chance that we still got ole Miss ahead of LSU

866
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:33,640
Speaker 1: next week. Think about the methodology here. If the same

867
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 1: model that has ole Miss squarely ahead of LSU right

868
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:41,680
Speaker 1: now projects either a narrow win or an LSU win,

869
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:45,759
Speaker 1: and it happens close, the model got what it expected,

870
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 1: which means it sees no reason to move those teams

871
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 1: all that far. Now, if LSU wins by thirty, that's

872
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 1: a different point, so the ap would act totally differently.

873
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 1: I'm just telling you in advance. If that game goes

874
00:44:57,640 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 1: the way I think it mayrobably not going to be

875
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:02,920
Speaker 1: a ton of movement. And so as happy as LSU

876
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:04,759
Speaker 1: folks would be with us picking them to win. Then

877
00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:07,279
Speaker 1: they win, then they don't jump Ole Miss Then that say,

878
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:10,120
Speaker 1: why do you hate LSU I don't. You're arguing with

879
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:13,319
Speaker 1: a computer, like a literal computer. Here. You hear this,

880
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 1: that's what you're arguing with. Take it up with the model,

881
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 1: not me. I only want the credit. I don't want

882
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:22,280
Speaker 1: to blame. Sixteen through twenty. Iowa State is at sixteen.

883
00:45:22,719 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 1: Kind of the same thing with Kansas State. Is that

884
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:28,759
Speaker 1: the ceiling for that team's profile. Kentucky's seventeen, same thing,

885
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:33,280
Speaker 1: Indiana eighteenth, same thing. Louisville's down four spots to nineteen.

886
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:36,680
Speaker 1: I'm a little disappointed in Louisville. I gotta be real

887
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:39,319
Speaker 1: with you. They're at nineteen, and Utah's at twenty and

888
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:41,840
Speaker 1: then twenty one through twenty five. I almost wish we

889
00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:45,840
Speaker 1: had the drum roll effect. I'm so happy, I'm so happy.

890
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:48,919
Speaker 1: I can't stop crying is a great Toby Keith song.

891
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:51,959
Speaker 1: The late Toby Keith partnered with Steing in that song.

892
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:54,960
Speaker 1: I think it's his most underrated song, which has no

893
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:56,719
Speaker 1: other relevance in the show. I just wanted to say

894
00:45:56,719 --> 00:46:00,399
Speaker 1: that Arkansas is in the JP poll. That's a real

895
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:04,520
Speaker 1: headline of this evening here, Arkansas is up six spots,

896
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 1: so I guess the big news there is not that

897
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 1: Arkansas's at twenty one. They were low key almost a

898
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 1: top twenty five team last week, so maybe it wasn't

899
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,319
Speaker 1: that surprising that they beat Tennessee. Maybe that wasn't an

900
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:19,239
Speaker 1: awful team Tennessee lost to. Just keep it in mind,

901
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:22,799
Speaker 1: Arkansas is at twenty one. You notice Boise's down there

902
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:27,120
Speaker 1: at twenty five, so it goes Arkansas, Iowa, Oklahoma SMU Boise.

903
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:31,239
Speaker 1: Do you think that? Let me check something right quick.

904
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 1: I had Fandul checking on something for me and we

905
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:37,719
Speaker 1: don't have it from them. Are you surprised that the

906
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:41,439
Speaker 1: model if Arkansas played Boise today would favor Arkansas by

907
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 1: point or two? Are you? Are you surprised by that?

908
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:48,839
Speaker 1: Or let me let me rephrase. Would you be surprised

909
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 1: if an actual sports book put that line out? Because

910
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:54,839
Speaker 1: you could just yell sec bias at me. People do

911
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:58,280
Speaker 1: it randomly all day, But what if a actual sports

912
00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:01,840
Speaker 1: book put that out? To find what Arkansas Boise would be?

913
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:04,279
Speaker 1: From our friends at FanDuel, I may just float it

914
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 1: out there for you. In other news, there's a scenario

915
00:47:08,120 --> 00:47:09,719
Speaker 1: that I want you to keep in mind kind of

916
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 1: the same thing formulaically as we talked about with ole

917
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 1: Miss and LSU. So you know, if the model has

918
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:19,240
Speaker 1: ole Miss ahead of LSU but kind of expects LSU

919
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:21,600
Speaker 1: to win because of dynamics, and they win close, the

920
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:23,800
Speaker 1: model sees no reason to move either team up or

921
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 1: down a whole lot. Well, Similarly, Oklahoma's there at twenty

922
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:32,080
Speaker 1: third right they are a two plus touchdown underdog to Texas.

923
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:37,960
Speaker 1: If they lose by sixteen, the AP would almost certainly

924
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:40,239
Speaker 1: drop them from twenty three to out of the poll.

925
00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:44,920
Speaker 1: We wouldn't budge them because this model has them at

926
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 1: twenty three and it projects them to lose by about

927
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:52,120
Speaker 1: fifteen or sixteen. If they do, it got exactly the

928
00:47:52,160 --> 00:47:55,279
Speaker 1: performance that it thought it should get. Therefore Oklahoma would

929
00:47:55,320 --> 00:47:58,520
Speaker 1: not drop. Now, there could be a world where a

930
00:47:58,560 --> 00:48:01,680
Speaker 1: whole bunch of teams climb and by default they get

931
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:03,759
Speaker 1: knocked down and it looks like they dropped, but their

932
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:08,280
Speaker 1: rating would not have dropped. So it's exciting slash nerve

933
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:11,600
Speaker 1: racking times around the JP pole. And I know the

934
00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:15,239
Speaker 1: folks who do the JP Pole. I know them, so

935
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:18,879
Speaker 1: trust me when I tell you a little nervous there.

936
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 1: You see at top ten right there, Penn State at ten,

937
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 1: welcome to the party. Clemson back in the top ten,

938
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:28,239
Speaker 1: have been for a couple of weeks. I'm suspicious of

939
00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:31,320
Speaker 1: Miami at seven, but I'm keeping them there. Bama, Tennessee.

940
00:48:32,080 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 1: Bama dropped two spots, Tennessee didn't even drop. And so

941
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:36,719
Speaker 1: I ask, if you think they should who's supposed to

942
00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 1: be above them? Who do you think that's below them

943
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:42,319
Speaker 1: right now would be favored against them if they play

944
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:44,719
Speaker 1: in a parking lot tomorrow. The answer is none of them.

945
00:48:44,920 --> 00:48:48,360
Speaker 1: Penn State wouldn't be favored over Bama or Tennessee. So

946
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:50,279
Speaker 1: they're undefeated and the other two have a loss. It

947
00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:53,120
Speaker 1: doesn't matter because that's not what this is about. Jesse,

948
00:48:53,200 --> 00:48:54,880
Speaker 1: where was Penn State in the AP Weren't they like

949
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 1: top five? Four? Yeah? So no, I mean, we're not

950
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 1: putting them top four because there are more than four

951
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:03,040
Speaker 1: or five, or six or seven teams that would be

952
00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 1: favored against Penn State. However, none of that matters in

953
00:49:06,239 --> 00:49:09,560
Speaker 1: the real world. So I'm trying to save some people

954
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:11,919
Speaker 1: sometime who are going to argue with me about that.

955
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:14,440
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter. This is not how I think the

956
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:16,319
Speaker 1: playoff Comittee should look at teams. This is not how

957
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 1: I think the AP should look at teams. It's how

958
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:21,080
Speaker 1: odds maker would look at them. And odds makers don't

959
00:49:21,080 --> 00:49:22,840
Speaker 1: decide anything other than what a point spread is going

960
00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:25,360
Speaker 1: to be. I just happen to have more fun viewing

961
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:28,799
Speaker 1: it through that lens because everyone else does rankings, so

962
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:31,520
Speaker 1: I'm not really all that interested in that. Okay, back

963
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:35,279
Speaker 1: to games this weekend, Back to matters on the field.

964
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:40,360
Speaker 1: Florida plays Tennessee Saturday night at seven o'clock on ESPN

965
00:49:40,440 --> 00:49:42,880
Speaker 1: and Nyland Stadium, and I am a believer that not

966
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 1: all two touchdown spreads are the same. Tennessee's favored by

967
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:51,799
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half at FanDuel right now. You know how,

968
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:55,480
Speaker 1: sometimes there are games where there's like a six or

969
00:49:55,480 --> 00:49:58,759
Speaker 1: a seven point favorite, but you're just totally sold. You're

970
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:02,960
Speaker 1: confident as can be that underdog's not winning this game now,

971
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:05,480
Speaker 1: that favorite absolutely is winning this game, and the line's

972
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:08,800
Speaker 1: like seven. Then there are other games where the line

973
00:50:08,840 --> 00:50:11,400
Speaker 1: is fourteen and a half and you're like, who man,

974
00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:16,720
Speaker 1: Tennessee just got beat and Arkansas didn't even score twenty

975
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:19,239
Speaker 1: and beat them and Florida just came out of the

976
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 1: bye week looking hot against UCF Graham Mertz, now he

977
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:27,440
Speaker 1: can throw the ball. Okay, fourteen and a half. That's

978
00:50:27,480 --> 00:50:30,200
Speaker 1: how I feel about this game. I'll be a sucker.

979
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 1: I'll feel that way about this game. For Florida to

980
00:50:33,200 --> 00:50:36,680
Speaker 1: pull the upset, reset theory has to be real. So

981
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:40,279
Speaker 1: the reset theory, at least in college football, is that

982
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 1: Florida went into the bye week and took a long,

983
00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:45,000
Speaker 1: hard look in the mirror and then they punched the

984
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:47,239
Speaker 1: mirror and they're gonna take the glass yards and use

985
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:50,359
Speaker 1: it against the rest of their schedule. And the reason

986
00:50:50,400 --> 00:50:53,600
Speaker 1: I'm pausing is for PAD, and the reason I'm providing

987
00:50:53,640 --> 00:50:56,120
Speaker 1: PAD is because if that creative services team and that

988
00:50:56,160 --> 00:50:58,160
Speaker 1: digital media team does not take that and put it

989
00:50:58,200 --> 00:51:00,440
Speaker 1: in a hype video, you people are crazy. And I

990
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:02,520
Speaker 1: know you guys, and you're not crazy. It may be

991
00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 1: a little violent metaphor, but still I'd use that if

992
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 1: I were you. So the reset theory has to be

993
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:11,279
Speaker 1: in play here because very clearly, if the profiles of

994
00:51:11,280 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 1: these two teams play out, Tennessee's going to win this game.

995
00:51:13,800 --> 00:51:16,520
Speaker 1: So Florida cannot be what Florida was. In other words,

996
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:19,800
Speaker 1: maybe they aren't. Maybe last year or last week was

997
00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:22,440
Speaker 1: an indicator of things to come. Florida is not balanced.

998
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:25,959
Speaker 1: They're not balanced enough, at least on offense. They're thirty

999
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:29,000
Speaker 1: fifth throwing the ball, they're eighty fifth running the ball.

1000
00:51:29,040 --> 00:51:33,160
Speaker 1: But Graham Mertz did play his best game last week,

1001
00:51:34,320 --> 00:51:37,800
Speaker 1: and Eugene Wilson may be back at wide receiver this week.

1002
00:51:38,400 --> 00:51:42,440
Speaker 1: And I vividly remember watching the Tennessee Arkansas game on

1003
00:51:42,480 --> 00:51:45,719
Speaker 1: the way home last week and Taylor Green. While they

1004
00:51:45,760 --> 00:51:47,799
Speaker 1: didn't rack up a ton of points, he was well

1005
00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 1: on his way to a three hundred yard passing afternoon

1006
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:52,840
Speaker 1: before he exited in the fourth quarter with an injury.

1007
00:51:53,120 --> 00:51:54,960
Speaker 1: And he was well into like the two hundreds over

1008
00:51:54,960 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 1: two fifty something like that. Graham Mertz can do that.

1009
00:51:58,200 --> 00:52:00,480
Speaker 1: Even in Kneeland, Graham Mertz could do This is the

1010
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:03,839
Speaker 1: best thrower of the football that Tennessee has faced all year,

1011
00:52:03,920 --> 00:52:07,160
Speaker 1: and which just brings us back to trying to find

1012
00:52:07,200 --> 00:52:11,400
Speaker 1: out where the vulnerabilities are. Tennessee may have some vulnerability

1013
00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:14,640
Speaker 1: on the back end of their defense. Graham Mertz, if

1014
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:17,719
Speaker 1: it's there, can take advantage of it, especially if he's

1015
00:52:17,719 --> 00:52:20,759
Speaker 1: getting healthier at his wide receiver position. So that's the

1016
00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:23,600
Speaker 1: first way that this thing could be a lot tighter

1017
00:52:23,640 --> 00:52:27,320
Speaker 1: than the spread indicates. The second thing is with Tennessee.

1018
00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:29,400
Speaker 1: The passing game is a work in progress, but they

1019
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:31,520
Speaker 1: can run it. They got the number five rushing offense

1020
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:34,680
Speaker 1: in the country. Florida has been bad, fought up bad

1021
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:37,800
Speaker 1: against the run. They're in the one hundreds, yeah, one hundred,

1022
00:52:37,880 --> 00:52:41,440
Speaker 1: first in rush yards per game, and they give up explosives.

1023
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:45,319
Speaker 1: So the Tennessee formula, I think back to the Oklahoma game.

1024
00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:49,120
Speaker 1: Run the ball well and you don't bomb away. When

1025
00:52:49,160 --> 00:52:51,480
Speaker 1: I say hit explosive plays, I don't mean ten of them.

1026
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:54,960
Speaker 1: But you remember Nico to Thornton over the middle and

1027
00:52:54,960 --> 00:52:56,640
Speaker 1: he takes it to the house. Just hit two or

1028
00:52:56,640 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 1: three of them and call it a day. That's good

1029
00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:02,680
Speaker 1: enough to beat Florida. It should be. And that's Tennessee's blueprint.

1030
00:53:02,920 --> 00:53:06,600
Speaker 1: And this is why reset mode reset theory has to

1031
00:53:06,600 --> 00:53:09,000
Speaker 1: be true for Florida, because if the defense plays to

1032
00:53:09,040 --> 00:53:11,719
Speaker 1: its profile, Tennessee will find a way to run the

1033
00:53:11,719 --> 00:53:15,320
Speaker 1: ball on you, and Nico will find I mean Hypel

1034
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:17,040
Speaker 1: will find a way to dial up a couple of

1035
00:53:17,040 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 1: explosive passes Florida probably probably will not get a two

1036
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:24,920
Speaker 1: possession lead in this game. But if they are able

1037
00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:28,440
Speaker 1: to play with the lead, Florida can't get after the quarterback.

1038
00:53:28,480 --> 00:53:30,760
Speaker 1: So if you're making Tennessee throw the ball to beat you,

1039
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:32,799
Speaker 1: you don't necessarily have to have the lead to do that.

1040
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:36,520
Speaker 1: I know, but the entire game script flips if you

1041
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:39,840
Speaker 1: do have the lead. Tennessee is seventy sixth in sacks

1042
00:53:39,880 --> 00:53:44,320
Speaker 1: allowed so far this year. And Bruce McCoy helped this

1043
00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:47,560
Speaker 1: questionable here. Squirrel White helped this questionable. So they may

1044
00:53:47,560 --> 00:53:49,600
Speaker 1: at Tennessee be without a couple of receivers or at

1045
00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:53,359
Speaker 1: least limited there. So we've set the stage, Colin, let's

1046
00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:56,719
Speaker 1: take a look at what the model thinks. Fandel's got

1047
00:53:56,719 --> 00:53:58,600
Speaker 1: this thing. At Tennessee minus fourteen and a half, the

1048
00:53:58,600 --> 00:54:01,640
Speaker 1: model agrees I did. At Tennessee minus fifteen. I just

1049
00:54:01,640 --> 00:54:04,600
Speaker 1: think it's too many points. I flat out think there's

1050
00:54:04,600 --> 00:54:06,000
Speaker 1: a path for Florida to go up there and win

1051
00:54:06,040 --> 00:54:07,920
Speaker 1: this game. I think they're going to be very competitive,

1052
00:54:08,160 --> 00:54:10,279
Speaker 1: and so I'll take Tennessee to win the game. I

1053
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:11,919
Speaker 1: do think they'll find a way to win the game.

1054
00:54:12,239 --> 00:54:14,359
Speaker 1: I don't think it's by over two touchdow. So I'll

1055
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:16,799
Speaker 1: take Tennessee to win and I'll take Florida to cover.

1056
00:54:17,480 --> 00:54:22,080
Speaker 1: Just a good heart fought game. Lipbom goes on all

1057
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:25,759
Speaker 1: right now, With that in mind, I'm not adding that

1058
00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 1: to the Rama Noodle Express, but I do want to

1059
00:54:28,560 --> 00:54:30,480
Speaker 1: tell you a couple things. So first off, FanDuel provides

1060
00:54:30,520 --> 00:54:33,400
Speaker 1: all the odds to us, and we appreciate them. They

1061
00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:35,200
Speaker 1: just power us and I can hit them up for

1062
00:54:35,280 --> 00:54:38,719
Speaker 1: hypothetical numbers. You need to be aware of something. So

1063
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:40,600
Speaker 1: I know a lot of you look around and you say,

1064
00:54:40,880 --> 00:54:43,120
Speaker 1: I mean I see FanDuel and like, I scroll and

1065
00:54:43,160 --> 00:54:45,480
Speaker 1: I'm interested in looking at the odds, but I don't know,

1066
00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:47,680
Speaker 1: like like should I dive in. Well, if you have

1067
00:54:47,800 --> 00:54:50,879
Speaker 1: questions about it, don't do it. If you've considered doing it,

1068
00:54:51,680 --> 00:54:53,960
Speaker 1: I would personally advise you to make this the weekend

1069
00:54:54,080 --> 00:54:56,359
Speaker 1: number one because it is a massive weekend, Like there

1070
00:54:56,360 --> 00:54:59,760
Speaker 1: are huge matchups all over the place. And I also

1071
00:54:59,800 --> 00:55:03,000
Speaker 1: need let you know because sometimes you tend to scroll

1072
00:55:03,040 --> 00:55:06,680
Speaker 1: over these things new sign ups. At FanDuel. They have

1073
00:55:06,760 --> 00:55:11,439
Speaker 1: the bet five to win three hundred proposition available this weekend. Now,

1074
00:55:11,440 --> 00:55:13,480
Speaker 1: you may think there's a lot of fancy language that

1075
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:16,640
Speaker 1: goes along with that. It doesn't understand what I'm telling you.

1076
00:55:16,920 --> 00:55:19,480
Speaker 1: If you're a new user, you go over there. I

1077
00:55:19,480 --> 00:55:21,479
Speaker 1: don't even care. If you take a huge money line

1078
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:25,280
Speaker 1: favorite you bet five bucks on it, you're returning three hundred.

1079
00:55:26,040 --> 00:55:28,400
Speaker 1: There is no catch, Okay, I'm trying to tell you people.

1080
00:55:28,400 --> 00:55:31,080
Speaker 1: It's basically free money being offered for new sign ups.

1081
00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:34,400
Speaker 1: So if you've thought about it, that may be the

1082
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:37,080
Speaker 1: impetus for you to dive in. There are profit boost

1083
00:55:37,080 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 1: tokens also available on the Ohio State, Oregon game Texas

1084
00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:44,200
Speaker 1: ou So if you want to go in through our portal,

1085
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:46,840
Speaker 1: use this QR code, or you can look at the

1086
00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:49,480
Speaker 1: link in the description. And if you're just listening on podcasts,

1087
00:55:49,480 --> 00:55:52,920
Speaker 1: it's FanDuel dot com backslash CFB promotion. That's how they

1088
00:55:53,000 --> 00:55:57,120
Speaker 1: know we sent you. But take advantage of this stuff, guys, like,

1089
00:55:57,160 --> 00:56:01,000
Speaker 1: there's no hidden catch there. That is just close to

1090
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:03,839
Speaker 1: free money being offered to you, So take advantage of it.

1091
00:56:03,840 --> 00:56:06,640
Speaker 1: The margins when you're betting this stuff are very thin,

1092
00:56:06,960 --> 00:56:10,520
Speaker 1: even if you practice proper money management and discipline, it's thin.

1093
00:56:10,920 --> 00:56:13,400
Speaker 1: So when they offer that stuff, I promise you I

1094
00:56:13,440 --> 00:56:15,920
Speaker 1: take advantage of it. I promise you I put it

1095
00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:19,120
Speaker 1: into practice, so you should too. Now, as for this weekend,

1096
00:56:19,960 --> 00:56:22,080
Speaker 1: I've got an added best bet on the Raminudle Express

1097
00:56:22,080 --> 00:56:25,160
Speaker 1: here number one. We already got on LSU LSU plus

1098
00:56:25,200 --> 00:56:27,279
Speaker 1: three and a half. We got on that the other night.

1099
00:56:27,520 --> 00:56:30,640
Speaker 1: We got on Ohio minus two and a half against

1100
00:56:30,640 --> 00:56:33,239
Speaker 1: Central Michigan the other night. I just want to check

1101
00:56:33,280 --> 00:56:36,279
Speaker 1: something here right quick, and Colin, you can go ahead

1102
00:56:36,280 --> 00:56:38,400
Speaker 1: and throw the third one up as I am vamping

1103
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:43,600
Speaker 1: for time. Here we go Central Michigan. Okay, Yeah, that

1104
00:56:43,680 --> 00:56:45,360
Speaker 1: numbers where I want it to be, all right. The

1105
00:56:45,440 --> 00:56:48,480
Speaker 1: third game that I'm gonna add I has been pretty

1106
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:51,520
Speaker 1: good to us this year, and as you know about

1107
00:56:51,520 --> 00:56:54,279
Speaker 1: college football, that's not something that you normally say. I

1108
00:56:54,320 --> 00:56:56,640
Speaker 1: have said it about Iowa. We have bet them a

1109
00:56:56,640 --> 00:56:58,399
Speaker 1: couple of times this year. I'm going to bet them again.

1110
00:56:59,000 --> 00:57:01,080
Speaker 1: Washington's coming in there. Don't like the spot at all

1111
00:57:01,080 --> 00:57:03,719
Speaker 1: for Washington just beat Michigan, got to travel two time zones.

1112
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:05,399
Speaker 1: Don't like it at all. So we're going to lay

1113
00:57:05,400 --> 00:57:09,000
Speaker 1: two and a half with Iowa at home against Washington.

1114
00:57:09,520 --> 00:57:12,040
Speaker 1: And that is our third added best bet of the weekend.

1115
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:15,000
Speaker 1: And there will be several more during Friday night lines,

1116
00:57:15,040 --> 00:57:18,480
Speaker 1: which will emanate from Eugene, Oregon. It may still be

1117
00:57:18,600 --> 00:57:20,520
Speaker 1: daylight out now that I think about it. When we

1118
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:22,800
Speaker 1: do that, I'll announce a time later this week. Make

1119
00:57:22,840 --> 00:57:26,000
Speaker 1: sure you're following at late Kickjosh on Instagram. Sign up

1120
00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:30,560
Speaker 1: for FanDuel at FanDuel dot com backslash CFB promotion must

1121
00:57:30,600 --> 00:57:33,400
Speaker 1: be twenty one plus and present in select states for

1122
00:57:33,520 --> 00:57:37,480
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1123
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Speaker 1: and present in Washington, DC. First online real money wager

1124
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Speaker 1: only ten dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued is non

1125
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1126
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Speaker 1: you have a gambling problem? If so, call one eight

1127
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1128
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1129
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Speaker 1: or visit CCPG dot org backslash chat in Connecticut, or

1130
00:58:05,880 --> 00:58:09,680
Speaker 1: visit MD gambling heelp dot org in Maryland, Hope is here,

1131
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Speaker 1: visit gambling Helplinema dot org or call eight hundred three

1132
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Speaker 1: two seven fifty to fifty for twenty four to seven

1133
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:19,680
Speaker 1: support in Massachusetts or call one eight seven seven eight

1134
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:23,880
Speaker 1: Hope n Y or text h op e n Y

1135
00:58:24,200 --> 00:58:27,040
Speaker 1: in New York. I have another game that I want

1136
00:58:27,040 --> 00:58:29,640
Speaker 1: to talk to you about. I'm gonna do upset alerts Thursday.

1137
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:35,720
Speaker 1: But you know, Kansas State places Colorado. It's late. It's

1138
00:58:35,720 --> 00:58:39,240
Speaker 1: a ten to fifteen Eastern time kickoff on ESPN. Both

1139
00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:41,080
Speaker 1: of these teams are off a buy now. Normally, when

1140
00:58:41,120 --> 00:58:43,360
Speaker 1: you got both teams off of buy, that just puts

1141
00:58:43,360 --> 00:58:46,800
Speaker 1: a premium on coaching. Which of these coaching staffs do

1142
00:58:46,880 --> 00:58:50,160
Speaker 1: you trust the most? Dion's one in five against ranked teams.

1143
00:58:50,480 --> 00:58:53,680
Speaker 1: I don't care that much about that, because there were

1144
00:58:53,720 --> 00:58:56,200
Speaker 1: a terrible team in year one and they may be

1145
00:58:56,320 --> 00:58:58,480
Speaker 1: a rapidly ascending team in year two, so that may

1146
00:58:58,520 --> 00:59:02,960
Speaker 1: or may not matter. Colorado just an interesting little mini

1147
00:59:03,000 --> 00:59:06,840
Speaker 1: padlock slash paper pop stat here. You know, Colorado allowed

1148
00:59:06,880 --> 00:59:10,400
Speaker 1: fourteen players to have either one hundred yards rushing or

1149
00:59:10,440 --> 00:59:13,240
Speaker 1: passing or receiving. So, Colin, because I may clip this,

1150
00:59:13,280 --> 00:59:16,720
Speaker 1: I'm going to say it again, paper pop again. Colorado.

1151
00:59:16,800 --> 00:59:20,840
Speaker 1: Last year they allowed fourteen different players to have either

1152
00:59:20,880 --> 00:59:23,919
Speaker 1: one hundred yards rushing or receiving in a game against them.

1153
00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:27,080
Speaker 1: They haven't allowed a single player to do that so

1154
00:59:27,160 --> 00:59:30,560
Speaker 1: far this year. That's what we call improvement. Kansas State,

1155
00:59:30,920 --> 00:59:33,480
Speaker 1: they won to establish the run. They should be able

1156
00:59:33,480 --> 00:59:36,000
Speaker 1: to establish the run. They got the seventh best rushing

1157
00:59:36,040 --> 00:59:39,160
Speaker 1: offense in the country. Colorado's sitting at about eightieth and

1158
00:59:39,240 --> 00:59:42,800
Speaker 1: stopping the run. Remember the last time we saw Kansas State,

1159
00:59:43,760 --> 00:59:46,040
Speaker 1: Avery Johnson looked as good as he's looked throwing the

1160
00:59:46,040 --> 00:59:48,600
Speaker 1: ball all year. We had him as our best bet

1161
00:59:48,640 --> 00:59:50,960
Speaker 1: of the week. They rolled Oklahoma State, then they went

1162
00:59:51,000 --> 00:59:53,000
Speaker 1: into the by at the perfect time, kind of like

1163
00:59:53,000 --> 00:59:54,800
Speaker 1: A and M. A and M rolls over Missouri. Then

1164
00:59:54,800 --> 00:59:57,320
Speaker 1: they go into the by. So do you get shot

1165
00:59:57,320 --> 00:59:59,160
Speaker 1: out of a cannon coming out of the by, because

1166
00:59:59,200 --> 01:00:01,160
Speaker 1: you guys haven't been great on the road. You barely

1167
01:00:01,200 --> 01:00:03,800
Speaker 1: got past two lane. You're going on the road here.

1168
01:00:03,880 --> 01:00:06,120
Speaker 1: You got drugged by Brigham Young. You're going on the

1169
01:00:06,200 --> 01:00:10,880
Speaker 1: road here again. You're favored. Can I trust you? Well?

1170
01:00:11,000 --> 01:00:12,440
Speaker 1: I think you'll be able to run the ball. Can

1171
01:00:12,520 --> 01:00:15,440
Speaker 1: you throw the ball as well? Avery Johnson and Kansas

1172
01:00:15,480 --> 01:00:18,400
Speaker 1: State on the road? Can I trust him? Do you

1173
01:00:18,480 --> 01:00:21,280
Speaker 1: understand what Shadoor Sanders is doing. Here's that's the Kansas

1174
01:00:21,280 --> 01:00:28,600
Speaker 1: State quarterback. Here's the Colorado quarterback. How should I state

1175
01:00:28,640 --> 01:00:31,080
Speaker 1: this in a way where the comment section doesn't turn

1176
01:00:31,160 --> 01:00:36,520
Speaker 1: into a complete cesspool. You remember when we talked about

1177
01:00:36,520 --> 01:00:40,160
Speaker 1: the Dion tax last year, and the Dion tax as

1178
01:00:40,200 --> 01:00:43,960
Speaker 1: it relates to our show, was all the nonsense opinions

1179
01:00:44,000 --> 01:00:48,080
Speaker 1: that enter the room because Dion Sanders is part of

1180
01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:50,800
Speaker 1: the conversation. It's great to have Dion as part of

1181
01:00:50,800 --> 01:00:52,720
Speaker 1: the conversation. At least I love him being part of

1182
01:00:52,760 --> 01:00:56,360
Speaker 1: the conversation. But one of the downsides is it attracts

1183
01:00:56,400 --> 01:00:59,080
Speaker 1: a lot of outside attention, which is not bad. But

1184
01:00:59,200 --> 01:01:01,560
Speaker 1: some of that outside attention comes in running its mouth

1185
01:01:01,600 --> 01:01:04,480
Speaker 1: about a sport it knows little about. That's the Deon tax.

1186
01:01:05,280 --> 01:01:08,920
Speaker 1: There's an inverse Don tax that Shaduur Sanders pays, and

1187
01:01:09,000 --> 01:01:10,840
Speaker 1: I'm not quite sure people are picking up on it

1188
01:01:11,080 --> 01:01:14,040
Speaker 1: because I'm telling you right now, if any other quarterback

1189
01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:17,000
Speaker 1: were doing what Shador Sanders was doing right now, it

1190
01:01:17,040 --> 01:01:20,160
Speaker 1: would be possibly the story of college football. But because

1191
01:01:20,160 --> 01:01:23,240
Speaker 1: he's Deon Sanders' son, the headline is he's Deon Sun.

1192
01:01:23,560 --> 01:01:25,560
Speaker 1: Let me tell you what I mean by that. Colorado

1193
01:01:25,600 --> 01:01:28,240
Speaker 1: is one hundred and twenty sixth in rush yards per game.

1194
01:01:28,440 --> 01:01:31,080
Speaker 1: They're barely at three yards per carry. They're terrible at

1195
01:01:31,120 --> 01:01:35,200
Speaker 1: running the ball. They're leading rusher is eighty yards behind

1196
01:01:35,280 --> 01:01:39,640
Speaker 1: Kansas State's third leading rusher, and they are one hundred

1197
01:01:39,680 --> 01:01:42,520
Speaker 1: and eighth in pressure rate allowed. So he's been under

1198
01:01:42,560 --> 01:01:45,880
Speaker 1: constant harassment again this year, and yet he's top ten

1199
01:01:46,280 --> 01:01:49,920
Speaker 1: in passing yards per game and touchdowns. He's only thrown

1200
01:01:49,960 --> 01:01:52,720
Speaker 1: three picks all year. He's top fifteen in the country

1201
01:01:52,840 --> 01:01:57,000
Speaker 1: in completion percentage. And there's no reason on Earth why

1202
01:01:57,040 --> 01:02:01,560
Speaker 1: he should be that good except he's that good. And

1203
01:02:02,120 --> 01:02:05,200
Speaker 1: I haven't noticed many people talking about how good Shador

1204
01:02:05,280 --> 01:02:08,400
Speaker 1: the player has been so far this year. And if

1205
01:02:08,400 --> 01:02:11,800
Speaker 1: he does that against Kansas State, they will beat Kansas State. Now,

1206
01:02:11,960 --> 01:02:14,640
Speaker 1: the trade off there is Kansas State probably has as

1207
01:02:14,680 --> 01:02:16,440
Speaker 1: good as caliber at athlete as you will have seen

1208
01:02:16,480 --> 01:02:20,200
Speaker 1: all year defensively. So the trade off on the other

1209
01:02:20,280 --> 01:02:22,800
Speaker 1: side is Kansas State can be had through the air.

1210
01:02:24,320 --> 01:02:26,480
Speaker 1: This is the dirty secret of this game. They could

1211
01:02:26,480 --> 01:02:28,800
Speaker 1: swing it for Colorado. Kansas State can be had through

1212
01:02:28,840 --> 01:02:31,000
Speaker 1: the air one hundred and first, one hundred and seventh

1213
01:02:31,040 --> 01:02:34,080
Speaker 1: actually in explosive plays given up. So you got that.

1214
01:02:34,120 --> 01:02:36,400
Speaker 1: On one hand, Kansas State can run the ball, control

1215
01:02:36,440 --> 01:02:38,400
Speaker 1: the clock, Kansas State can run for three hundred yards

1216
01:02:38,400 --> 01:02:41,000
Speaker 1: in this game for all I know. It's a very

1217
01:02:41,200 --> 01:02:43,360
Speaker 1: very interesting contrast in styles. Let's take a look at

1218
01:02:43,360 --> 01:02:46,200
Speaker 1: what the model thinks, Colin. As you see at the

1219
01:02:46,240 --> 01:02:49,480
Speaker 1: bottom of the screen, Vanduel's got Kansas State minus four

1220
01:02:49,520 --> 01:02:52,280
Speaker 1: and a half. Now the model is more bullish on

1221
01:02:52,360 --> 01:02:55,520
Speaker 1: Kansas State. We got Kansas State minus seven and a half.

1222
01:02:56,000 --> 01:02:59,360
Speaker 1: I'm very scared of that because of Kansas State's profile

1223
01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:03,960
Speaker 1: as a road team. I'm going to lay the points.

1224
01:03:04,200 --> 01:03:06,520
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Kansas State to win and cover. I'm

1225
01:03:06,560 --> 01:03:09,400
Speaker 1: not betting on it because I think just as easily

1226
01:03:09,440 --> 01:03:12,120
Speaker 1: as that happens, Colorado wins this thing outright, So I'll

1227
01:03:12,120 --> 01:03:14,120
Speaker 1: blindly trust the model because I don't have a strong

1228
01:03:14,160 --> 01:03:18,360
Speaker 1: opinion on the game. But man, I learned my lesson

1229
01:03:18,360 --> 01:03:20,680
Speaker 1: when we took Baylor up there. Kansas State's a much

1230
01:03:20,720 --> 01:03:24,000
Speaker 1: better team than Baylor. They, according to the model, should

1231
01:03:24,000 --> 01:03:25,520
Speaker 1: win this thing. They got the third best odds to

1232
01:03:25,560 --> 01:03:29,000
Speaker 1: win the Big Twelve right now, Colorado has the seventh

1233
01:03:29,080 --> 01:03:32,480
Speaker 1: best odds if they win this game. If Colorado wins

1234
01:03:32,520 --> 01:03:35,760
Speaker 1: this game, it is game on. As it relates to

1235
01:03:36,040 --> 01:03:40,160
Speaker 1: Colorado contending for the Big twelve, and might I remind you, guys,

1236
01:03:41,120 --> 01:03:42,800
Speaker 1: if they're good to be If they're good enough to

1237
01:03:42,800 --> 01:03:45,240
Speaker 1: beat Kansas State, that means they're good enough to beat

1238
01:03:45,280 --> 01:03:49,960
Speaker 1: anyone on their schedule. And if they're of that caliber,

1239
01:03:50,480 --> 01:03:53,840
Speaker 1: that means they're a conference title contender. And if they're

1240
01:03:53,840 --> 01:03:57,640
Speaker 1: a conference title contender, that means by default they're a

1241
01:03:57,680 --> 01:04:01,680
Speaker 1: playoff contender. Up at a time. The game happens this

1242
01:04:01,760 --> 01:04:04,000
Speaker 1: Saturday night, and it's a late game, so most of

1243
01:04:04,040 --> 01:04:06,880
Speaker 1: America we'll be able to watch it. Well, might I

1244
01:04:06,920 --> 01:04:09,400
Speaker 1: remind you on the way out that we're going to

1245
01:04:09,440 --> 01:04:12,040
Speaker 1: start the show early on Thursday because I have to

1246
01:04:12,600 --> 01:04:16,920
Speaker 1: fly to Portland. Also, the teleprompter, which I didn't even

1247
01:04:17,000 --> 01:04:18,760
Speaker 1: know we knew how to use, just came on in

1248
01:04:18,760 --> 01:04:21,960
Speaker 1: front of me and it says producer Jesse put a

1249
01:04:21,960 --> 01:04:26,280
Speaker 1: poll in the chat. Congrats Jesse, and it was fifty

1250
01:04:26,280 --> 01:04:29,720
Speaker 1: to fifty split on who wins between LSU and ole Miss,

1251
01:04:30,000 --> 01:04:33,760
Speaker 1: with over fourteen hundred votes. So half of you are

1252
01:04:33,800 --> 01:04:35,919
Speaker 1: taking Ole Miss to win, despite the fact that they're

1253
01:04:35,920 --> 01:04:38,640
Speaker 1: favored by three and a half points. Very interesting. I

1254
01:04:38,720 --> 01:04:44,400
Speaker 1: myself am not so boom. I just cast the deciding vote.

1255
01:04:44,960 --> 01:04:48,400
Speaker 1: I'm pushing LSU over the top. That's how football happens.

1256
01:04:48,400 --> 01:04:52,440
Speaker 1: After all polls in the YouTube live chat, make sure

1257
01:04:52,480 --> 01:04:55,280
Speaker 1: you subscribe to the channel. Tons of you, thousands of

1258
01:04:55,320 --> 01:04:57,200
Speaker 1: you per day have been doing this as of late,

1259
01:04:57,440 --> 01:05:00,160
Speaker 1: which means you're subscribing and you're recruiting your friends to

1260
01:05:00,160 --> 01:05:03,400
Speaker 1: do it. And if that is any indication of what

1261
01:05:03,560 --> 01:05:06,240
Speaker 1: is to come, then we'll hit three hundred thousand within

1262
01:05:06,280 --> 01:05:08,919
Speaker 1: the next month, which I think we can clearly do.

1263
01:05:09,240 --> 01:05:13,200
Speaker 1: So let's rack up those subs and on the podcast side,

1264
01:05:13,440 --> 01:05:16,120
Speaker 1: same thing. And as long as we do that, then

1265
01:05:16,160 --> 01:05:20,000
Speaker 1: management's happy. And if management's happy, that means management stays

1266
01:05:20,000 --> 01:05:22,240
Speaker 1: out of the way. And as much as I love

1267
01:05:22,320 --> 01:05:25,200
Speaker 1: to dunk on management, I do need you guys to

1268
01:05:25,280 --> 01:05:29,440
Speaker 1: know I hate telling the story. Management was at the

1269
01:05:29,480 --> 01:05:30,960
Speaker 1: A and M game with me the other day. A

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Speaker 1: lot of you saw management. You didn't even know it

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01:05:33,040 --> 01:05:36,200
Speaker 1: because you didn't wear a name tag. But we're on

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01:05:36,240 --> 01:05:40,640
Speaker 1: the flight home and I don't want to be too specific.

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Speaker 1: I may have just been a few rows ahead of management.

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Speaker 1: Let me just put it that way, so I have

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01:05:45,200 --> 01:05:48,240
Speaker 1: already deplaned. By the time management comes through where I

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Speaker 1: was sitting. I left the laptop. I left it in

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Speaker 1: my seat back because I was busy helping others, as

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01:05:55,440 --> 01:05:58,920
Speaker 1: I always do. I'm putting others over self, and then

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Speaker 1: self gets fick to my management save the laptop. And

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Speaker 1: as he's taken it off the plane, the flight attendant

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Speaker 1: notices that this rando just grab someone else's laptop and

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Speaker 1: he said, what are you doing with that? And management said, oh, oh,

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01:06:12,840 --> 01:06:14,360
Speaker 1: this is my friends. I have to give it to him.

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Speaker 1: What's your friend's name, Oh, Josh Pate prove it boom

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Speaker 1: payte state sticker right on the front of the laptop.

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Speaker 1: So in many ways, we couldn't even do the show

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Speaker 1: without management this week. So while the battle continues, you

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Speaker 1: do at least have to tip your cap from time

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Speaker 1: to time. And it's been a tough week for management.

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Speaker 1: His tesla's been at the shop. He had to get

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Speaker 1: a backup tesla. So you know, the one percent of

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Speaker 1: struggling too, folks. We appreciate them. We appreciate you guys.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back early on Thursday. Stay tuned for start time.

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Speaker 1: I think we're going to do it at two o'clock

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Speaker 1: Central at three o'clock Eastern, I think. Don't quote me

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Speaker 1: on that. Just make sure you're following Josh pay cfbo

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Speaker 1: Twitter at Lake Josh on Li Instagram and we will

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Speaker 1: see you there. Until then, have a great rest of

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