1 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Gloomberg eleventh Ryoh to Washington, 2 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:12,560 Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg Well unders to San Francisco, 3 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:16,439 Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine six to the Country Series Exam General one 4 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 1: ninety and around the globe. The Bloomberg Radio Plus appened 5 00:00:20,079 --> 00:00:24,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com. This is Rooomberg Surveillance. Hey, good morning, 6 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: I'm Karen Moscow, along with Michael McKee and Scarlet Foo 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 1: and the opening bell brought to you by American Arbitration Association. 8 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:36,239 Speaker 1: Business disputes are inevitable resolved faster with the American Arbitration Association, 9 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 1: the global leader and alternative dispute resolution for over eighty 10 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:43,280 Speaker 1: five years. Learn more at a dr dot org. And 11 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:45,159 Speaker 1: stocks are higher at the open. The S and P 12 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 1: five hundred up about two tenths per cent or three 13 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:51,160 Speaker 1: points to one down. Jones Industrial average up two tenths 14 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: per cent or twenty nine points to eighteen thousand six, 15 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 1: and then as to acts, up two tenths per cent 16 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 1: or seven points to forty nine oh three ten. Your 17 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 1: treasury little change you'ld one point nine one percent. They 18 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 1: yield on the two year point eight four percent non 19 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: mex screwed oil at one point six percent or seventy 20 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 1: cents to forty three thirty four of barrel comex's gold 21 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 1: is up four tenths per cent or four an dollar 22 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,440 Speaker 1: sixty cents to twelve forty four seventy and ounce the 23 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: euro at all our thirteen thirty two and the end 24 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 1: one ten point nine six. Mike and Scarlet, thank you 25 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 1: so much. Karen. I'm Scarlet food in for Tom Keane 26 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 1: here with Michael McKee. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Mike, we're 27 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 1: gonna talk about hedge funds, the hedge fund industry, under pressure, 28 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 1: poor returns, about of contraction with some high profile funds closing, 29 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 1: and of course those high fees. So joining us now 30 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: is Ted Sites, formerly of Yale Investment Management and Protege Partners, 31 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:44,119 Speaker 1: and currently author of a new book, So you want 32 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 1: to start a Hedge Fund Lessons for Managers and Alligators? Ted? Welcome, Thanks, Carl, 33 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 1: great to be here, Great to see you. So let's 34 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 1: start first with hedge funds and where they are. Is 35 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 1: the industry at an inflection point? Is it going through 36 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 1: a midlife crisis right now? I'm not sure it's a 37 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 1: midlife crisis. But there's certainly change happening. I think the 38 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 1: industry itself has really reached the mature phase of its growth, 39 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 1: and like any other industry, when it matures, lots of 40 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 1: things happen, both in the composition of the industry and 41 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 1: also to the participants. And what's the most important change 42 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:21,080 Speaker 1: you see happening for folks who need to allocate their money? 43 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 1: I think the most important change that a lot of 44 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 1: people miss with the criticism about hedge fund returns is 45 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 1: that there'sn't a lot there are in a lot of 46 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: other places to put their money. So despite the fact 47 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 1: that returns have certainly disappointed the last few years, we 48 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:37,239 Speaker 1: continue to see inflows into the industry, and the way 49 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 1: that those inflows are coming is changing. So what you're 50 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 1: seeing is a change in the composition of the industry, 51 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:47,640 Speaker 1: And generally speaking, the investors and hedge funds aren't thrilled 52 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 1: with what they've had, and they're looking for something a 53 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 1: little bit different to get back to the kinds of 54 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 1: returns they were expecting in the past. Well, one of 55 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 1: the complaints that people have is that the returns the 56 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:00,919 Speaker 1: hedge fund industry has provide it over the last couple 57 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: of years aren't worth the cash that you've laid out, 58 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:07,760 Speaker 1: So make the case for even bothering. Yeah, I think 59 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 1: that's a fair point um, and we'll see what happens. 60 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 1: I like to refer to a terrific article that Carol 61 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: Loomis wrote called hard Times for Hedge Funds, and it 62 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 1: talks about how the long positions have gotten clawboard, and 63 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 1: the shorts are going the wrong way, and the fees 64 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 1: are too high and there's just too much money in 65 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 1: the industry to generate returns. The tricky part of it 66 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 1: is that terrible with that article in January of nineteen. 67 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: So we don't really know yet. Certainly we've seen some 68 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 1: cyclical head wins against hedge funds. I think the rate 69 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 1: environment is particularly challenging for hedge fund strategies. But it's 70 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 1: a little too soon to tell if we just had 71 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 1: a rough period of time or if there's a real 72 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 1: secular problem that we'll see. But make no mistake about it, 73 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 1: and investors are disappointed from the last one. Is the 74 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 1: model for you changed in the same way it has 75 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 1: for a lot of retail equity investors in that you're 76 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 1: not trading. Uh, you know, a heade strategy. You know, 77 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 1: one security against another. You're trying to get around computers 78 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:11,360 Speaker 1: that are inserting themselves into every trade, and hedging doesn't 79 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 1: work because they're just gonna take the other side of 80 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 1: any trade you make. Yeah, you know, big data is 81 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 1: certainly working its way into the financial markets. And again 82 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 1: we have seen the last few years some of the 83 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 1: quantitative funds and renaissance most notoriously keeps producing returns like 84 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: a like an a t M machine, and some of 85 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 1: the others have as well. Um, But I don't think 86 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:36,599 Speaker 1: that fundamental investing is sort of dead forever. Ultimately, stock 87 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 1: returns tend to correlate over time with companies underlying results. Um, 88 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 1: and we'll see what happens. So for those people who 89 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 1: are intent on setting up their own fund and starting 90 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 1: a new um and getting back to the fundamentals, talk 91 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: to us about what kind of strategy they should pursue. Um. 92 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:58,279 Speaker 1: You make a point about how they should start, uh, 93 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 1: getting to work right away, putting money to work rather 94 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:03,479 Speaker 1: than keeping this high cash balance. Why is that? Yeah, Well, 95 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 1: there are a bunch of subtle lessons in the book 96 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: from a strategic perspective. To start with. I think one 97 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:12,799 Speaker 1: of the most important lessons that that I've seen managers 98 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: startup managers learn over time is to put forward exactly 99 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 1: what they want to do, because the environment or the 100 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 1: demand for strategies can be somewhat fickle and change with 101 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:27,040 Speaker 1: recent performance. And so when someone is making their own bed, 102 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:29,360 Speaker 1: ultimately they're going to have to lie in it, and 103 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,159 Speaker 1: so they really need to think carefully about the long 104 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:33,919 Speaker 1: term and what strategy they want to pursue for the 105 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 1: long term. Now, when it comes to actually starting a fund, 106 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 1: what happens is the day that a manager starts, the 107 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:43,280 Speaker 1: clock is taking. So whatever strategy that is, if it's 108 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 1: a long short strategy or a convertible arbitrage strategy, there 109 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 1: are competitors that are in the business from the day 110 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:51,840 Speaker 1: they start, and a lot of times what you see 111 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 1: is a manager will want their very best positions all 112 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:59,040 Speaker 1: the time, and so in seeking this kind of ideal 113 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: that ultimately does and exist, they only put on positions 114 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:07,599 Speaker 1: very very slowly um and exactly so they're looking for 115 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:11,359 Speaker 1: perfection early when perfection really doesn't exist. And so what 116 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 1: I've seen a number of times is that it starts 117 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:16,720 Speaker 1: that there's nothing wrong with trying to put your best 118 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 1: foot forward. But if a manager waits too long, and 119 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 1: let's assume that the strategy over time is going to 120 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: make money, they're kind of giving up too much return 121 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:27,839 Speaker 1: in this sort of all important early months and quarters, 122 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 1: and sometimes it just takes them too long and then 123 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 1: they generate returns that are unexciting for for the people 124 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 1: watching them and potentially looking to invest. How is it 125 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 1: on the other side of the allocation table, How easy 126 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:47,280 Speaker 1: is it to raise money for a fund these days? Oh? 127 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 1: I think it's particularly difficult to normally getting more so 128 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 1: um so um. What we've seen is this increasing concentration 129 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 1: across the hedge fund industry, so the largest managers are 130 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: getting larger, and again that's the depite the fact that 131 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 1: the investors haven't been all that excited about what they're seeing. 132 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 1: And so as a result of that, although for any 133 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 1: one startup it's particularly difficult, there is demand and there 134 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: will be increasing demand at the startup phase of the business. 135 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 1: So there are lots and lots of these startups, not 136 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 1: that many of them will succeed, just like the venture 137 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: capital business where not many ventures succeed. Um. But it's 138 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 1: important for all of these sort of newer managers to 139 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 1: understand that there are ways that they can modestly improve 140 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 1: their chances of success. You talk about how there are 141 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 1: a lot of big hedge funds. Is it better to 142 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 1: be a big hedge fund or a smaller one? Is 143 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 1: a goal for everyone to get to one billion? Well, 144 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 1: I think in this business the goal for most managers 145 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: should be to generate returns that they make their clients happy. 146 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: And uh, there are benefits to size, and there's some 147 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 1: drawb exercise. So certainly as as a benefit with larger 148 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 1: size and larger resources comes the ability to hire better 149 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 1: talent to invest more r and D into strategies. On 150 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 1: the other side, if you have too much, if you 151 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 1: have too much assets to manage, you start to constrain 152 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 1: your investment opportunity set um and that isn't great for 153 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 1: investment returns. So there's definitely a delicate balance for any 154 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 1: strategy between wanting to achieve a certain amount of growth 155 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 1: and then potentially being too big to play the same game. 156 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 1: Ted Science is with us. Uh, he is a new 157 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 1: book out. So you want to start a hedge fund? Um, 158 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 1: I'm not sure. Yeah, that's that's not what Scott and 159 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 1: I are gonna be doing. But we'll be back with 160 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 1: him and we'll get some advice just in case we 161 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 1: decide we want to change careers. And uh, he gets 162 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 1: probably a little too old for either one of us 163 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:44,199 Speaker 1: to become a professional athlete or a rock and roll star. Um. So, 164 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: so you're seeing there's a future for us and managing 165 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 1: money huh, maybe the only thing we have left that 166 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: and being here on Bloomberg surveillance. Right now, the markets 167 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 1: are open and the markets are green. How long that 168 00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 1: will last? We'll see the numbers coming out on the 169 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 1: economy not so good today, Defense meeting. Do you want 170 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:05,720 Speaker 1: to trade ahead of at S and p up? Right now? 171 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:08,720 Speaker 1: By four points? The Dow is up by thirty three 172 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 1: tenure note yield two point seven four. That's the thirty rather. 173 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 1: I time now to check in with Michael br brought 174 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 1: to you by Palisades out Even is at Palisades Outy 175 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:25,200 Speaker 1: dot com. Here he is with the latest news headlines. 176 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 1: Mike Scarlet, thank you very much. It is primary day 177 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: and five Northeast states voters were handed the polls in Delaware, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, 178 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 1: Rhode Island, and Maryland. A strong day by Democrat Hillary 179 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 1: Clinton could put the race out of reach for rival 180 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:42,199 Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders. The Vermont Senator admitted to ABC News he 181 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 1: does better in open contests. We all handicap. I think 182 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 1: we're gonna do flying today. We know what the rules are. 183 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 1: We're gonna fight for every vote we can get in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, 184 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 1: et cetera. But in fact, in these states independence camp vote. 185 00:09:56,960 --> 00:09:59,720 Speaker 1: We do a lot better with independence than Hillary Clinton does. 186 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,800 Speaker 1: Republican front runner Donald Trump told Fox News hillary Clinton 187 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: is using the woman car to get elected, saying that 188 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:10,080 Speaker 1: she is pandering to the electorate. Trump says he'd loved 189 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 1: to see a woman president, but that Clinton is a disaster. 190 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 1: Dangerous weather packing tornadoes, and large hale could stretch from 191 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 1: southern Oklahoma do southern Nebraska today. A twelve year old 192 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 1: girl I registered for a five k road race last 193 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:26,319 Speaker 1: Sunday in Rochester, New York, but somehow, Leaiden Does Rodriguez 194 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:28,600 Speaker 1: joined the wrong group of runners and instead of running 195 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:31,719 Speaker 1: the three point one mile of course, she ran thirteen 196 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 1: point one miles. The twelve year old says she realized 197 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 1: her mistake halfway through, but decided to finish, and she 198 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 1: did Global News twenty four hours a day. I'm Michael Barr. 199 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 1: Mike Michael, I don't know, Scarlett, maybe we could do that. 200 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 1: That's amazing. We give her all the credit in the world. Absolutely, 201 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 1: and don't forget. We need to give another shameless plugged 202 00:10:53,640 --> 00:11:02,720 Speaker 1: our FED special for tomorrow ye two pm tomorrow on Bloomberg. Well, 203 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 1: coming up, we are going to continue our conversation with 204 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 1: Ted Sity's about how to start a hedge fund. In 205 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 1: his scarlet mentioned We'll give you all the news on 206 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 1: the FED tomorrow are FED Special two p m. Bloomboo 207 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 1: Business News twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com, 208 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:24,319 Speaker 1: the radio plus mobile app, and on your radio. This 209 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm kieron Moscow. This 210 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 1: updates brought to you by National Realty Returns on cash 211 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:34,199 Speaker 1: and rented real estate find them at n r I 212 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 1: a dot net. U s docks are rising him and 213 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:40,560 Speaker 1: quarterly results from DuPont to Jet Blue Airways and as 214 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 1: investors away Tomorrow's feeder Reserve policy update. But check the 215 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 1: markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg. 216 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 1: The S and P five up to tens per cent 217 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:52,280 Speaker 1: or five points to twenty ninety two. The Dow Jones 218 00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:55,080 Speaker 1: Industrial average up to tens per center thirday six points 219 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:58,080 Speaker 1: to eighteen thousand thirteen in the Nastacs up two tens 220 00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:01,079 Speaker 1: per center ten points to forty nine oh six. Pen 221 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 1: your treasury little change yield one point nine one percent 222 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: yield on the two year point eight four percent. Nimex 223 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 1: Screwed Oil up one and a half percent, or sixty 224 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 1: three cents to forty three twenties seven. A barrel comes 225 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 1: Gold is up a quarter percent or three dollars twenty 226 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 1: cents at twelve forty three thirty announced the euro a 227 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:20,319 Speaker 1: dollar thirteen twenty three the EN one eleven point oh three. 228 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 1: DuPont is up about two percent, the company which plans 229 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:26,600 Speaker 1: to merge this year with dal Chemical, raising its earnings 230 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 1: outlook for twenty sixteen after higher seed prices boosted first 231 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:32,840 Speaker 1: quarter sales, while jet Blue is up one point two 232 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: percent after first quarter profit beat analysts estimates. And a 233 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:39,680 Speaker 1: group of companies including Alphabet's, Google, Ford Motor, and Uber 234 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 1: Technologies are forming a coalition to advocate for safety regulations 235 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,199 Speaker 1: for self driving cars and to bring them to American roads. 236 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:51,320 Speaker 1: And that's a bloomberg Business Flash, Mic and Scarlett. Thank 237 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:53,840 Speaker 1: you so much. Karen. I'm Scarlet Food in for Tom 238 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 1: Keene here with Michael McKee. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Our 239 00:12:57,040 --> 00:13:00,200 Speaker 1: guest right now is Ted City's author of So Want 240 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 1: to Start a Hedge Fund? Formerly of Yell Investment Management 241 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 1: and Protege Partners and ted Um. Your book, which is 242 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:09,680 Speaker 1: a wonderful series of lessons for anyone looking to start 243 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 1: their own hedge fund, has a blurb on the back 244 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 1: from one William Ackman of Pershing Square Capital where he says, 245 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 1: I strongly recommend this book for anyone who's interested in 246 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:21,960 Speaker 1: starting a hedge fund. Give us the number one lesson 247 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:25,720 Speaker 1: that new hedge fund managers and experienced ones like Bill 248 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 1: Lackman uh would learn. What what mistake do they all make? 249 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:33,840 Speaker 1: I think if there's one broader mistake that we see 250 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:39,079 Speaker 1: in the early stage, it's that very talented investors, talented analyst, 251 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 1: talented portfolio managers haven't applied their same business acumen to 252 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:46,280 Speaker 1: their own business. So we have a lot of situations 253 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 1: where if you think just about the marketing process, which 254 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 1: often isn't something that a new manager has been involved with, 255 00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 1: they don't really appreciate what their audience is looking for. 256 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 1: They don't do research to understand that, they don't really 257 00:13:57,360 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 1: understand where they fit into the ecosystem um and as 258 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,320 Speaker 1: a result of that, they tend not to send the 259 00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 1: right signals to their potential investors. UM. So that's one 260 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 1: general area, and that pervades itself across sort of how 261 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 1: they think about their team, how they think about the 262 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:17,720 Speaker 1: relationships with their investors. So a lot of broad aspects 263 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 1: of the business is something that gets very underappreciated by managers. 264 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 1: So how do they fix that? Do they hire a 265 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 1: professional business manager marketing manager? Well, one of the reasons 266 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 1: I wrote the book is that there aren't a lot 267 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 1: of ways for these managers to learn these lessons. Um. 268 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 1: You really don't have serial entrepreneurship in the hedge fund 269 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: space the way you do and say venture capital, because 270 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 1: if someone starts a new fund, they never need to 271 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 1: start another new fund as long as they're successful. The 272 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 1: life expectancy of funds suggests that they do need to start. 273 00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 1: They might need to get a new job, but you 274 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 1: don't often see people who are successful sort of restarting. UM. 275 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 1: So I think a common way that that people learn 276 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 1: these lessons is by going and talking to a bunch 277 00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 1: of peers who have done it before and succeeded. And 278 00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 1: and there is sort of a series of lessons of 279 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 1: history that come out, UM, but a lot of it 280 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 1: gets learned through experience and through making mistakes. And so 281 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:09,480 Speaker 1: I know, you know, when Bill read this and wrote 282 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:11,800 Speaker 1: the quote, and a lot of very successful managers like 283 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 1: him who have done that for them, it was sort 284 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 1: of a trip down memory lane. They all kind of said, Wow, 285 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: I wish I had seen this before when I was 286 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 1: starting a fund. And one of the lessons you talk 287 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 1: about in the book is um multi strategy hedge funds 288 00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 1: and how most multi strategy head funds are not made. 289 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 1: They were they're made. Excuse me, they weren't born. What 290 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 1: do you mean by that? Well, Um, when when funds 291 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 1: get started, generally speaking, what happens is that a manager 292 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 1: has excelled in a particular strategy and they rightly pursue 293 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 1: that strategy because that's what they know the best. Um. 294 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 1: One of the things that's incredibly difficult about forming a 295 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 1: hedge fund is actually generating or having the ability to 296 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 1: have the flexibility that everyone assumes hedge funds have, so 297 00:15:57,280 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 1: from the outside we we believe that hedge funds are 298 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: nimble and trade a lot, and have a lot of leverage, 299 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 1: and are flexible and make money in all environments. It's 300 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 1: not that it's a myth. It's just very hard to 301 00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 1: manage expectations of investors if you're all over the place, 302 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 1: and like anything else, managing expectations is incredibly important. So 303 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 1: one of the things I talked about in the book 304 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 1: are the challenges If someone wants to have flexibility in 305 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 1: their mandate, how might they be able to go about 306 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 1: doing that? Or alternatively, if they want to focus on 307 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 1: a narrow strategy, what are some of the challenges they 308 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 1: might face when that narrow strategy goes in or out 309 00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 1: of favor. Well, that would be where I would follow 310 00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 1: up a question, and that is is there anything new 311 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 1: under the sun? The words how do I sell you 312 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 1: on my services? If I'm doing the same strategy that 313 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 1: other people have done, Are there any new strategies? Really? Yeah, 314 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 1: I don't know that there are always something new. There's 315 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:55,920 Speaker 1: a tremendous amount of money in the hedge fund industry 316 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 1: made and therefore also spent in research and development, probably 317 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 1: more than in any other place in investment management that said, 318 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:04,920 Speaker 1: there isn't a lot that's new, uh, And I think 319 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 1: that's one of the lessons for sort of the startup 320 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 1: itge fund managers. They all think what they're doing is 321 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 1: brand new and special and very different. But from the 322 00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 1: allocators perspective, there really isn't um So where you where 323 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 1: you generate interest is by doing things right, by generating performance. 324 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 1: And also there is an advantage of being smaller as 325 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:29,200 Speaker 1: I mentioned earlier, and having more flexibility into the breadth 326 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 1: of the securities you can trade. Is there an ideal size? 327 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:35,800 Speaker 1: I think there is an ideal size for different strategies. 328 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:38,680 Speaker 1: It's probably not the same size for different strategies. So 329 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 1: to give an extreme example, it probably doesn't make sense 330 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 1: to be a ten billion dollar fund focused on small 331 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 1: cap equities a right, So if you're investing in small 332 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 1: cap US equities a fund that might be right size 333 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 1: from a few hundred million maybe to a billion dollars. 334 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:55,680 Speaker 1: Whereas if you're a multi strategy firm, you probably need 335 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 1: to be quite a lot bigger to attract talent and 336 00:17:58,080 --> 00:17:59,359 Speaker 1: to be able to play in a lot of different 337 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:02,919 Speaker 1: strategies and scale, and when you're attracting investors. Are you 338 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 1: looking to go after the most fundamental long term investors, 339 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:09,919 Speaker 1: is that the best audience for you, or should you 340 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 1: be looking more broadly? Well, everyone would like investors that 341 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 1: give them a lot of money, take none other time, 342 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:21,640 Speaker 1: and never leave. Those investors generally don't exist, um And 343 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 1: there is certainly a perception that the most favorable investors 344 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 1: are the ones that own their own capital and have 345 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 1: very long duration liabilities. So you could think about endowments 346 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:35,560 Speaker 1: and foundations, and that group of investors has tended to 347 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:38,080 Speaker 1: be longer term than others. But one of the things 348 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 1: you learn over time is that no two investors are alike. 349 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 1: No two investors are driven by different factors. And so 350 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 1: is a managers going to build a great business just 351 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 1: like any business they would invest with. They're better they're 352 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 1: better off having a diversified client base than investors all 353 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 1: driven by the same set of factors. Well, what are 354 00:18:56,520 --> 00:19:00,280 Speaker 1: the pitfalls by by just seeking out foundation ones? Are 355 00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 1: big endowment funds? Yeah, Well, to be sure, a lot 356 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:04,920 Speaker 1: of funds have been very successful just seeking out those 357 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:07,680 Speaker 1: types of investors. But one example, as we went through 358 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:10,320 Speaker 1: the financial crisis in two thousand and eight, endowments and 359 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:14,640 Speaker 1: foundations generally speaking, had the same liquidity challenge, where for example, 360 00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 1: if you had investors that were based in Asia where 361 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 1: the currency was stronger, their assets didn't depreciate by as 362 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 1: much and they tended to be more stable. Nobody could 363 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:28,640 Speaker 1: have predicted that type of difference in in decision making process, 364 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 1: but in that situation it was better to have more 365 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 1: geographically diverse investors than just investors in the US. UH 366 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,400 Speaker 1: I got a question for you here. You you used 367 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:40,919 Speaker 1: to work at Yale. Yale was the first of the 368 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:44,440 Speaker 1: endowments to put money into hedge funds. Is it still 369 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:50,240 Speaker 1: a good thing for endowments to do or is it 370 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:54,520 Speaker 1: too risky? Well that those are very different questions. Um, 371 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:56,679 Speaker 1: I think it's a very good thing for endowments to do. 372 00:19:56,720 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 1: I think catch funds, when selected well, provide a differential 373 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:04,880 Speaker 1: return stream and certainly can deliver equity like expected returns. 374 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:09,960 Speaker 1: Um risk is completely misunderstood. So a well managed portfolio 375 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 1: of hedge funds has quite a bit less risk than 376 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:14,720 Speaker 1: just investing in the equity markets over any sort of 377 00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:19,400 Speaker 1: medium period of time. We I wanted to finish up 378 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:22,600 Speaker 1: with the idea that there's a retirement risk here with 379 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:24,719 Speaker 1: some folks in the hedge fund industry, right, a lot 380 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 1: of founders of big funds are getting near retirement age. 381 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:30,440 Speaker 1: What does that mean for allocators, for people who have 382 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 1: UH money and pension funds and how that money will 383 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 1: be used? Yeah, Well, the vast preponderance of money in 384 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 1: the hedge fund space is invested with a relatively small 385 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 1: universe of large funds, and those funds tend to have 386 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:46,680 Speaker 1: long track records and have been very successful. UM. And 387 00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 1: the the the entrepreneurs and founders are in many instances 388 00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 1: in their sixties late fifties, so we are starting to 389 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,119 Speaker 1: see some of these people retire. Some of the firms. 390 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:01,160 Speaker 1: Take an example like Farallon and Tom Steyer left managing 391 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:04,560 Speaker 1: the funds, have transition nicely and have a continuing business. Others, 392 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 1: for example Regiment in Boston that was founded by Tim Peterson, 393 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 1: a former Harvard Management fixed income manager. Two years after 394 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,240 Speaker 1: he left, the eight or ten billion dollars went to 395 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,480 Speaker 1: zero as investors fled. And so what we're likely to 396 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 1: see is a mix of those two things. UM. Now, 397 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 1: if there's only two or three hundred large firms and 398 00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 1: a significant subset of those don't succeed in in transitioning 399 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 1: to another set of talent. We're going to see reallocation 400 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 1: of those dollars too smaller funds and maybe to one 401 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 1: of your new hedge funds that people reading your book start. 402 00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:38,880 Speaker 1: It could be that dead side is so you want 403 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 1: to start a hedge funds. Thank you very much for 404 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 1: joining us. I'll give you the best investment here. Scarlett 405 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:46,119 Speaker 1: of the Day that I have heard about didn't need 406 00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:48,680 Speaker 1: a hedge fund to do it. But Tom Hanks says 407 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 1: he put a hundred pounds on Lester to win the 408 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,160 Speaker 1: Premier League at the beginning of the season five thousand 409 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:57,919 Speaker 1: to one at the time. Do you believe that? I 410 00:21:57,960 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 1: don't know if he's telling the truth or that, but 411 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,440 Speaker 1: that's when he is. There's a great article on the 412 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg written by our editor in chief of John Michaelthwaite. 413 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,440 Speaker 1: Unjust that because John Michaelthwaite is a die hard Lesser fan, 414 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 1: and because he's in New York, he wasn't able to 415 00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 1: make any bet on the team going anywhere this year, 416 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:19,440 Speaker 1: and he's weeping right. We are produced by Boston ken Folly, 417 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 1: who was our global technical director. I would like to 418 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:24,880 Speaker 1: Thank Scarlet Food for sitting in with us this hour, 419 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 1: Fancy Lacos and Lisa brown Woods for filling in for 420 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 1: Tom today,