WEBVTT - It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Polling for the 2026 Midterms 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.120 Welcome back to a numbers game. Thank you all for 0:00:06.160 --> 0:00:08.879 being here on this Thursday. I'm happy to be back 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:11.600 with you. I really hope you enjoyed the last episode 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:14.280 on Monday by Congressman Corey Mills. I may have an 0:00:14.360 --> 0:00:17.280 update in the future. I know this isn't a gossip 0:00:17.480 --> 0:00:22.000 podcast per se, even though my friends really want me 0:00:22.040 --> 0:00:24.200 to do a gossip podcast, but this is not it. 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.160 When I have a big scoop like that, though that's 0:00:27.200 --> 0:00:28.680 a little bit on the gospel side, I'm going to 0:00:28.760 --> 0:00:31.800 share with you because otherwise a reporter's going to scoop it, 0:00:31.840 --> 0:00:33.720 and you guys should get it first because you're my 0:00:34.479 --> 0:00:38.720 loyal audience. I had a family reunion last week actually, 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:41.080 and one of my cousins who listens to the pod 0:00:41.159 --> 0:00:43.360 said to me, I really like your show. There's a 0:00:43.400 --> 0:00:47.680 little too much math in it, so episode I'm going 0:00:47.720 --> 0:00:49.479 to try to break that up a little bit with 0:00:49.600 --> 0:00:54.200 episodes that aren't so math intensive. And this episode is 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:59.160 both a little math intensive and has a narrative a 0:00:59.160 --> 0:01:01.480 story to it that I think is important something that 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:05.080 the Trump administration is doing that people should know. So 0:01:05.240 --> 0:01:07.520 I wanted to do a catch up episode on all 0:01:07.600 --> 0:01:09.520 the data that has broken in the last week because 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:13.119 I've had a lot of guests, heavy episodes and more 0:01:13.400 --> 0:01:17.160 thematic episodes. So this one is on the twenty twenty 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:19.720 six midterms, right. I want to talk about the generic 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:21.759 ballad because it's how will affect us in a nation 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:26.759 depending on who wins the midterms. So the congressional generic ballad, 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:30.679 which is overall how people are feeling in the country. 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:32.920 They don't talk about a specific race, but you know 0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:36.480 who they are likely to support. It shows that Republicans 0:01:36.520 --> 0:01:39.040 have slipped about a point or two in the last month. 0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:42.880 The Real Clear Politics polling average shows it's a D 0:01:43.200 --> 0:01:47.800 plus three five race. That means that the nation as 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:50.840 a whole is voting about three point five percent more 0:01:50.840 --> 0:01:54.920 Democrat than Republican. Now, remember the twenty twenty four election 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:58.520 was an R plus two race, so that represents a 0:01:58.640 --> 0:02:02.120 five point five percent swinging towards the Democrats from the 0:02:02.160 --> 0:02:05.960 previous election. Also remember this, I need this to be 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:08.840 a very important covey when I say we're talking about polling. 0:02:09.440 --> 0:02:12.560 Polling does not predict the future. Polling is a snapshot 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:16.320 of the present. Things can change, things will change, but 0:02:16.360 --> 0:02:19.600 it's important to know where people are. The economy is 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:23.400 really not great for a lot of people. I know 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:26.160 a lot of people applying for jobs, first time jobs, 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:28.600 college rees and college grads with graduates who are smart, 0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:32.040 people who are hardworking, and they cannot get an interview 0:02:32.040 --> 0:02:34.919 for a job. They cannot find a job. It's rough. 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:37.720 Interest rates are still pretty high, not high compare like 0:02:37.760 --> 0:02:41.760 the nineteen seventies, but they're high in general, and prices 0:02:41.800 --> 0:02:45.640 are still high. We're still dealing with the overall ramifications 0:02:45.680 --> 0:02:49.079 of printing too much money during President Biden's time in office. 0:02:49.639 --> 0:02:52.200 All that's still there. And I think that people hope 0:02:52.200 --> 0:02:54.960 for a magic wand that Trump would fix everything, and 0:02:55.160 --> 0:03:00.160 it has not happened. So a D plus three zero 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:03.560 point five race is better for Republicans than the twenty 0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:08.000 eighteen election, but it likely means it's very likely, means 0:03:08.040 --> 0:03:10.360 they're going to lose the House representatives. The Senate is 0:03:10.400 --> 0:03:13.359 still probably safe for a Republican. I mean, it would 0:03:13.400 --> 0:03:16.040 be very difficult for Democrats to actually win the Senate 0:03:16.040 --> 0:03:19.280 at this time. But DP plus three point five means 0:03:19.280 --> 0:03:22.160 states like Michigan and Georgia, which are potential pick up 0:03:22.280 --> 0:03:27.320 races for Republican It's very difficult. It becomes very difficult 0:03:27.320 --> 0:03:29.320 in those states to sit there and see how they 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:32.520 win those states, and it also becomes really hard for 0:03:32.560 --> 0:03:35.560 them to see how they hold North Carolina and potentially Maine. 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:38.000 I mean, Main's a weird state. So put that to 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:40.880 the side. Because Susan Collins is her own animal and 0:03:40.920 --> 0:03:44.800 it's a unique set of circumstances. There hasn't been a 0:03:44.920 --> 0:03:48.280 ton of recently high quality polling. If you look at 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:51.240 the results from the Fabrizio Lee Pole, which is published 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:53.560 in the Most Journal in April than July, it shows 0:03:53.560 --> 0:03:56.400 about a one point shift towards Democrat. The Signal poll 0:03:56.520 --> 0:03:59.040 also shows about a one point shift towards Democrat. In 0:03:59.080 --> 0:04:02.240 the generic ballot Quantus Insight, which was a really good 0:04:02.240 --> 0:04:04.560 pollster in twenty twenty four, they have a two point 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:08.680 swing towards Democrats. And the CMBC poll, not a high 0:04:08.720 --> 0:04:10.920 quality poll, but it's worth mentioning has a three point 0:04:10.960 --> 0:04:14.520 shift towards Democrats. Very few polls have had any kind 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:17.800 of shift towards Republican Atlas Intel did, but they're i mean, 0:04:17.839 --> 0:04:20.160 they're saying it's going to be a Democratic landslide. So 0:04:20.200 --> 0:04:23.760 it's one point doesn't mean anything. Emerson also has a 0:04:23.760 --> 0:04:26.680 one point swing towards Republican, so not great news for 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:30.920 Republicans going into key swing states and key Senate races. 0:04:30.960 --> 0:04:34.840 In the twenty twenty six elections. The Georgia Senate race 0:04:34.920 --> 0:04:38.520 had a good poll for Republican congress from Mike Collins, 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:40.840 someone I know a little bit. I've spoken him a 0:04:40.920 --> 0:04:43.560 few times. I think he's a really good guy. He's 0:04:43.839 --> 0:04:47.560 got a lot of legislative accomplishments for somebody who hasn't 0:04:47.600 --> 0:04:50.479 spent decades in office. He's only been there for I 0:04:50.520 --> 0:04:53.280 think maybe four or six years. But it had him 0:04:53.279 --> 0:04:56.360 only one point behind Democrat John Ossop in the state 0:04:56.400 --> 0:04:59.960 of Georgia. Allins can win the sea, but he's gone 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:03.720 going to need the national environment to improve, not I 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:06.400 would say significantly. It's gonna have to improve for him 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:08.200 to win the seat, maybe by one point five to 0:05:08.279 --> 0:05:10.640 two points in order him to win the seat. Otherwise 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:13.880 they're going to blame Republicans, the people of the votable, 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:16.840 blame Republicans for everything bad, and it will take him 0:05:16.839 --> 0:05:20.680 down like everybody else. In North Carolina, an Emerson pole 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:23.640 found that former Governor Roy Cooper has a six point 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:27.680 lead over R and C chairman Michael Wattley. This is 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:30.839 I believe Wattley's first time ever running for office. Cooper 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:34.600 is a great recruit for Democrat. He was a popular 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:38.839 governor in a purple state. Who is young enough that 0:05:38.960 --> 0:05:40.640 I mean he's not young he's like sixty eight, but 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:42.720 I mean, I guess in the Senate he's young enough. 0:05:42.720 --> 0:05:45.440 He's young enough. Just seems like he's not tainted by 0:05:45.480 --> 0:05:48.360 politics because he's only ever run for state positions. He's 0:05:48.400 --> 0:05:52.280 not tainted by DC politics in this poll. And I'll 0:05:52.279 --> 0:05:53.960 admitted it's an early poll because his election is not 0:05:54.000 --> 0:05:57.080 until November of twenty twenty six. Cooper has a benefit 0:05:57.120 --> 0:06:00.680 of winning more Republicans than Wattley does Democrat, and Cooper 0:06:00.839 --> 0:06:04.560 is crushing it with independence right now. Even though North 0:06:04.560 --> 0:06:07.679 Carolina hasn't elected a Democrat to the sentences two thousand 0:06:07.720 --> 0:06:11.040 and eight, that doesn't mean that they can't win this year. 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:14.720 I remember Roy Cooper has never lost an election statewide 0:06:14.839 --> 0:06:17.920 in North Carolina, and I was looking it up in 0:06:17.960 --> 0:06:21.039 twenty twelve when he was running for Attorney general. I 0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:24.320 think for the re elect Republicans didn't even put forward 0:06:24.360 --> 0:06:27.280 a challenger, and that was the year that Romney won 0:06:27.360 --> 0:06:31.119 North Carolina, he almost lost the governor's race in twenty 0:06:31.160 --> 0:06:34.599 sixteen as well. And had any of those races gone 0:06:34.600 --> 0:06:36.880 the other way, or had they even pit up a challenger, 0:06:36.880 --> 0:06:39.680 I don't know why he was running unopposed for a 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:42.000 state wide office. At least, you know, throw Joe Schmo 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:44.160 up there and hope for a miracle, because once in 0:06:44.200 --> 0:06:48.720 a while it does happen. They just let him, you know, 0:06:48.880 --> 0:06:53.320 have an easy, one hundred per easy ride victory. He also, 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:55.800 I mean in the twenty sixteen governor's race, he would 0:06:55.839 --> 0:06:59.080 have lost had the Libertarians not run a candidate. The 0:06:59.160 --> 0:07:02.919 Libertarian can for Governor got two percent of the vote 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:06.000 in it, and he Roy Cooper only won by eleven 0:07:06.120 --> 0:07:10.840 thousand votes. So another case of a third party candidate 0:07:10.880 --> 0:07:13.240 really ruined it for Republicans. It will be a tough 0:07:13.280 --> 0:07:16.160 seat to hold. It's not impossible, but it's going to 0:07:16.200 --> 0:07:18.240 be a tough seat because Roy Cooper is probably the 0:07:18.240 --> 0:07:21.360 top recreit they could have gotten for this election cycle. Now, 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:23.200 there is an election this year that I want to 0:07:23.240 --> 0:07:27.120 talk about too. Elections actually won the New Jersey Governor's race. 0:07:27.600 --> 0:07:31.040 There was a poll from stem site Research. It's a 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:35.080 new research company, but it's from the Polsters of Monmouth, 0:07:35.760 --> 0:07:39.000 which are very well respected polsters in the state. I 0:07:39.040 --> 0:07:42.600 honestly think that they get things really way too off 0:07:42.640 --> 0:07:45.920 to get as much respect as they do. But they 0:07:45.960 --> 0:07:48.160 have a long history of getting things right. But they've 0:07:48.160 --> 0:07:51.080 had a couple of doozies, and when they I meanies, 0:07:51.240 --> 0:07:54.640 when I mean doozies, I mean doozies in polling, but 0:07:54.680 --> 0:07:57.760 before that decades of correct polling. So they find that 0:07:57.800 --> 0:08:03.239 Democrat Mickey Cheryl leading Republican Jack Chitdarelli by six points 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:06.560 forty eight to forty two in the Garden State. That 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:10.720 doesn't seem great, but remember four years ago Chitterarelli was 0:08:10.760 --> 0:08:12.800 down in the same in the Mammoth Pole, the same 0:08:12.800 --> 0:08:16.880 people who did this poll by sixteen points against incumbent 0:08:16.960 --> 0:08:20.200 Governor Phil Murphy, and that race wasn't even considered close, 0:08:20.200 --> 0:08:24.720 it wasn't considered worth paying attention to. Chitarelli is the 0:08:24.840 --> 0:08:27.400 underdog in this fight, but it is not the same 0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:30.760 state that it was four years ago. I think people 0:08:31.360 --> 0:08:34.120 need to remember that as we're heading towards these very 0:08:34.160 --> 0:08:38.960 important governor elections, like including in Pennsylvania, a top recruit 0:08:39.120 --> 0:08:43.040 announced they're running against Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania. I think 0:08:43.080 --> 0:08:46.319 it's important to remember that it's not the same state. 0:08:46.440 --> 0:08:52.320 Right in Pennsylvania, the Democratic advantage in voter enrollment is 0:08:52.480 --> 0:08:56.360 five hundred thousand fewer than it was three years ago 0:08:56.480 --> 0:08:58.760 the first time he ran. When he ran in twenty 0:08:58.800 --> 0:09:02.439 twenty two, when Oshapi ran for governor, Democrats had five 0:09:02.559 --> 0:09:05.839 hundred There was five hundred and sixty thousand more registered 0:09:05.960 --> 0:09:09.440 Democrats than Republicans. As of now, and we are still 0:09:09.440 --> 0:09:12.800 eighteen months from the election, there were only sixty thousand 0:09:13.080 --> 0:09:18.000 more Democrats than Republicans. Once again, super popular governor probably 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:22.440 going to win, has the advantage, but there's a lot less, 0:09:22.840 --> 0:09:25.839 you know, meet on the bones for the Democratic base. 0:09:26.120 --> 0:09:29.280 The same is true in New Jersey. In November twenty 0:09:29.360 --> 0:09:34.040 twenty one, Democrats had one million, seventy thousand more registered 0:09:34.440 --> 0:09:37.360 Democrats than Republicans. Bill Murphy always had that advantage of 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:41.120 over a million registered voters. Since then, in the four 0:09:41.240 --> 0:09:46.160 years since that election, there are forty thousand fewer Democrats 0:09:46.200 --> 0:09:50.320 and one hundred and sixty thousand more Republicans. So and 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:52.719 that was a race that Murphy won by eighty four 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:56.360 thousand votes, and the Republican advantage has increased by two 0:09:56.520 --> 0:10:00.760 hundred thousand in that four year period. So if there's 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:03.680 any kind of polling error like there was four years ago, 0:10:03.760 --> 0:10:06.280 Chittarelli was supposed to lose by like eight points, and 0:10:06.320 --> 0:10:08.600 I think he lost by two and a half. If 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:12.120 any kind of polling error exists this time, like it 0:10:12.200 --> 0:10:15.200 did last time, and like it has done in several 0:10:15.280 --> 0:10:18.120 other elections. But if that polling error exists of five 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:22.920 to six points, that new voter enrollment advantage in New 0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:26.079 Jersey of two hundred thousand, one hundred and sixty thousand 0:10:26.160 --> 0:10:31.319 more Republicans forty thousand fewer Democrats means Chitarelly has a chance. 0:10:31.679 --> 0:10:35.160 You know, he's not in the lead. It's not a 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:39.440 super tight race right now, but he's the underdog. But 0:10:39.440 --> 0:10:42.000 he has a chance. The election is not over in 0:10:42.040 --> 0:10:46.400 New Jersey, New York City, the mayor's election in my 0:10:46.520 --> 0:10:51.000 home city. This one hurts because it's basically over. It is. 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:55.120 If there was anyone in political leadership in this godforsaken 0:10:55.160 --> 0:10:57.440 city with two brain cells of scratched together and start 0:10:57.440 --> 0:11:01.640 a fire, we could have a chance. A new Siena poll, 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:04.120 which only had a sample survey of three hundred, so 0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:08.040 it's not a very high sample survey, but it has 0:11:08.160 --> 0:11:14.280 Mandani Zoram Mandani socialist candidate winning with nineteen points against 0:11:14.320 --> 0:11:18.200 former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Mandani has forty four percent, Cuomo 0:11:18.240 --> 0:11:21.559 has twenty five, Republican Curtis Leewa has twelve, and incumbent 0:11:21.960 --> 0:11:26.319 Mayor Eric Adams has seven percent. Now, I don't know 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:29.880 why these four numbskulls are the candidates that we have 0:11:29.960 --> 0:11:32.120 to lead the biggest city in America. I don't know 0:11:32.160 --> 0:11:36.200 why Catherine Garcia didn't run. She would have. She's a Democrat, 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:38.280 I don't agree with all of our policies. She would 0:11:38.280 --> 0:11:41.239 have actually been able to run the city. I fundamentally 0:11:41.280 --> 0:11:43.600 believe she could run the city and make it function 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:47.280 and make sure we weren't falling into the abyss. She 0:11:47.440 --> 0:11:49.920 wasn't a thirty three year old IVY list with no 0:11:50.080 --> 0:11:53.560 job experience, or a disgraced former governor, or an insane 0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:57.199 person who peaked in the eighties, or a disgraced outgoing mayor. 0:11:57.240 --> 0:12:00.680 She was a competent woman. She's a Democrat and agree policies, 0:12:00.720 --> 0:12:03.280 but she could have. I don't know why we're stuck 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:07.160 with this group. It's extremely frustrating when there were really 0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:11.120 good candidates who could have run the race and done it. 0:12:11.240 --> 0:12:13.800 All these candidates are flawed, every single one of them. 0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:15.880 Only one has a path to beat Mondonnie, and it's 0:12:15.920 --> 0:12:18.120 Andrew Cuomo. I know that it's not comfortable to say 0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:20.360 I've never voted for Andrew Cuomo. I don't like Andrew Cuomo. 0:12:20.760 --> 0:12:24.760 He was a horrible governor. Well it was okay, it's 0:12:24.800 --> 0:12:26.679 like a few years of his first term, but after 0:12:26.760 --> 0:12:29.360 that it just fell off the cliff. It was just horrific. 0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:33.880 He handled COVID terribly. What I find from and this 0:12:33.920 --> 0:12:40.360 is maybe a cynical view from a conservative Democrats oftentimes 0:12:40.679 --> 0:12:43.200 I find in many of these blue states when they 0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:48.719 are governors, are all about managing decline, managing the decline 0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:51.560 of New York, which is really sad from somebody who 0:12:51.640 --> 0:12:54.600 lived my entire life here and goes back to the state, 0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:57.800 you know, eight generations. I think there was no vision 0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:00.319 and optimism. It was about how to manage decline and 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:04.040 just you know, rearranged seats in the deck chair of 0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:07.840 the Titanic. While our tax base fled and our industries fled, 0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:10.920 and that was Andrew Cuomo. But he is the only 0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:14.720 person who can beat Mandanni, which I would take managed 0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:18.040 to climb over a catastrophe of a socialist. So what 0:13:18.200 --> 0:13:20.960 should happen right now if there was a person with 0:13:21.080 --> 0:13:25.640 a brain cell in Andrew Cuomo's entire team. Rather than 0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:29.280 sending out insane tweets about his family lineage and who 0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:33.719 he is and saying that Mandannie you know, is attacking him, 0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:35.840 rend freeing his head or whatever he's saying on Twitter 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:38.400 to try to troll Mendanni, he should be meeting with 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:42.840 the county, the borough Republicans. There are five boroughs. Every 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:45.640 borough has a Republican party. There's a Republican elected official 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:48.800 in four of the five boroughs, and say what do 0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:52.600 you want? He should be saying, there are six Republican 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:54.800 city council members at a fifty one he'll set. He 0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:58.520 should sit there and say, you throw your support behind me. 0:13:59.080 --> 0:14:02.120 I will not run any Democrats against all of your 0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:05.840 incumbents in four years, and I will back two more. 0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:08.240 I'll give you eight city councilors, which will be the 0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:10.840 most of the Republicans in decades. I will tell the 0:14:10.920 --> 0:14:13.800 unions to back off your incumbents in the city. Make 0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:17.480 deals right now. Michael Bloomberg, for all of his ills, 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:20.760 when he was mayor, knew how to make deals, Make 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:23.760 deals with people, to bring everyone together, instead of allowing 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:28.560 Curtis lee While to destroy his legacy by running this 0:14:29.040 --> 0:14:35.040 absolute garbage campaign and winning twelve percent and taking the 0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:37.640 city down with his ego and his pride. And then 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:40.120 tell Eric Adams and his seven percent, I'll name a 0:14:40.120 --> 0:14:43.760 bridge after you, I'll name a garden after you, a school, 0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:47.240 whatever you want, will i will do the Eric Adams Library, 0:14:47.400 --> 0:14:52.760 whatever you want. Don't do this. Drop out, throw your 0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:56.040 support behind me. There's another gentleman in the race who's 0:14:56.040 --> 0:14:59.560 getting like two percent. Drop out, throw your support behind me, 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:03.640 and let's have a shot at making sure this city 0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:05.640 doesn't work. I'll no many of them as deputy mayors. 0:15:06.000 --> 0:15:09.640 Whatever you want, like whatever it's going to take, and 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:12.960 make the deal because Curtis ly one. Erg Adams cannot 0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:15.640 win right now. With any poll I have seen, they 0:15:15.680 --> 0:15:18.680 are in the between mid to low teens. Eric Adams 0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:21.360 is in the single digit numbers. It's just over at 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:25.760 that point. Their negatives are way too high and only 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:29.920 only only silver aligning in this poll. For anyone who 0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:33.920 is not up. You know, Mandani's rear end is the 0:15:33.960 --> 0:15:36.560 fact that about a quarter of New Yorkers twenty five 0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:38.800 percent of New Yorkers do not know who he is. 0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:41.880 They have no opinion of him. You have to understand. 0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:43.560 I know you guys are listening to a political podcast, 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:45.240 and you probably spend a lot of time thinking listen 0:15:45.280 --> 0:15:49.160 to podcasts. The average person doesn't like. The average person 0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:52.480 doesn't vote, They don't know. They're going about their day 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:56.760 and they think about this, especially local races, for the 0:15:56.800 --> 0:15:59.600 first time, maybe two weeks before election day. That's when 0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:01.400 they're you know, they started saying, oh, there might be 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:04.680 an election a couple of weeks. Who's running. There is 0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:08.200 an opportunity and a real opportunity. And I've heard that 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:10.480 this is going to happen to blanket the city with 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:15.160 millions of dollars in negative advertising against Mandanni and make 0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:19.280 him as unlikable as everybody else. So then you're just 0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:22.200 running a race of who's the most unlikable. Cuomo is 0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:26.320 very unlikable, Sleeve was very unlikable, Eric Adams is comically corrupt. 0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:32.040 Mandanni is a moronic socialist who's also inauthentic and incredibly unlikable. 0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:34.520 He's just young enough to be handsome, which the ship 0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:36.720 is sale with other ones. I mean, let's not lie. 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:41.520 So that is that if they do not unite at 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:43.720 this point or in the next month or so and 0:16:43.920 --> 0:16:47.160 blanket the city with negative advertising about Mandanni and how 0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:50.320 truly horrific he is, he'll be the next mayor of 0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:54.680 New York and good luck to us. So that is 0:16:54.760 --> 0:16:57.400 my rundown of all the politics. Republicans are slipping in 0:16:57.440 --> 0:17:01.040 the generic ballad by about a point nationwide, having trouble 0:17:01.760 --> 0:17:06.320 in some Senate states like North Carolina. In New Jersey, 0:17:06.400 --> 0:17:09.600 Chitdarelli is down but not out, especially if there's a 0:17:09.600 --> 0:17:12.160 polling error like there was last time. And in New 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:15.240 York it is getting pretty bleak. I know that's not 0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:17.800 the happiest to come and tarry for you guys, but 0:17:17.840 --> 0:17:20.520 I would rather tell you the truth than repeat things 0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:23.480 you would like to hear. That's my pulling up date. Now. 0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:26.600 Next is a story that should be getting more attention 0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:29.840 about something that Trump administration is doing, but it hasn't, 0:17:29.880 --> 0:17:35.359 So that is coming up next. Stay tuned. There was 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:37.480 a little blurb in The New York Times two weeks 0:17:37.480 --> 0:17:40.520 ago that the new head of USCAS, that's the United 0:17:40.520 --> 0:17:45.399 States Citizenship and Immigration Services, that their new head, Joseph Edlow, 0:17:45.960 --> 0:17:49.080 is overhauling the citizenship test. Now. It didn't get a 0:17:49.119 --> 0:17:52.320 lot of mention after that. It was like one sentence 0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:55.640 and a bigger article about him, and there weren't many 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:59.720 follow up deep dives. And he finally started giving interviews 0:17:59.720 --> 0:18:02.560 to some conservative outlets like Fox News and Brepbart News. 0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:04.480 He said the test was too easy and he needs 0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:06.520 to reflect the letter and the spirit in which Congress 0:18:06.520 --> 0:18:10.040 intended when they pass citizenship law. Says it's not about 0:18:10.040 --> 0:18:12.199 the questions aren't up to par. It's that there aren't 0:18:12.359 --> 0:18:16.440 enough of them, and they people applying for citizenship don't 0:18:16.440 --> 0:18:18.280 get a sense of who we are as a country. Now, 0:18:18.320 --> 0:18:21.720 I know that you all have heard, and I have 0:18:21.800 --> 0:18:23.640 heard it a million times, so I'm guessing you guys 0:18:23.640 --> 0:18:26.800 at least heard one hundred that the average American cannot 0:18:26.880 --> 0:18:30.359 pass this citizenship test. I know you've heard that because 0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:34.840 I know I have heard that, and you hear about, Oh, 0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:37.760 there's all these questions and it's very detailed. There are 0:18:37.760 --> 0:18:41.440 between ninety to one hundred questions on the test, right, 0:18:41.560 --> 0:18:44.560 only ten are actually asked. I don't know if everyone 0:18:44.640 --> 0:18:47.520 understands this. So yes, you have to memorize one hundred 0:18:47.600 --> 0:18:51.920 different answers, but only ten are given and you only 0:18:52.000 --> 0:18:55.360 have to get six of those ten correctly to pass. 0:18:56.080 --> 0:19:00.159 So access to a lifetime in the United States, the 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:05.119 ability to access our welfare state, our security state, our 0:19:05.640 --> 0:19:09.280 you know, everything, are lower taxes than most parts of 0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:15.359 the developed world. Everything, because you can answer six questions correctly. 0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:19.680 Six lifetime, right to vote to cancel out my vote, 0:19:19.720 --> 0:19:22.280 to cancel out your vote to cancel out Donald Trump's vote. 0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:29.240 Six questions, six questions. And I'm sure if you're like 0:19:29.359 --> 0:19:32.560 me and you have been around the general public, you 0:19:32.600 --> 0:19:35.680 don't have much faith of the hours person is informed 0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:39.919 enough to pass these questions. So for your entertainment and 0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:43.520 you and if you've never looked at the test, I'm 0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:46.280 going to take this test right now, right, I'm going 0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:50.440 to read these ten This is on Americanhistory dot SI 0:19:50.600 --> 0:19:53.440 dot edu. You can take the citizenship test yourself. It's 0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:57.400 only ten questions, and I'm going to read you possibly 0:19:57.520 --> 0:19:59.520 a question. You can tell me, how hard do you 0:19:59.520 --> 0:20:02.679 think it is. First question, what was one promise you 0:20:02.800 --> 0:20:06.160 make when you become a United States citizen? Ay, never 0:20:06.280 --> 0:20:10.000 leave the US, be obey the laws, see offer housing 0:20:10.040 --> 0:20:13.960 to soldiers or de pay taxes for traveling to other countries. 0:20:15.080 --> 0:20:17.280 That is not a hard question that you don't even 0:20:17.280 --> 0:20:20.479 have to study that. That's literally just logic. That's basic logic. 0:20:20.560 --> 0:20:23.359 It's be obey the laws. Okay. Next, that is correct. 0:20:23.400 --> 0:20:25.439 By the way, I didn't read these beforehand. This is 0:20:25.600 --> 0:20:28.000 just me going off with it. What is one reason 0:20:28.080 --> 0:20:33.720 colonialists came to the America slavery, political liberty, communism to 0:20:33.760 --> 0:20:36.440 set up their own monarchy? Okay, it's a basic history question. 0:20:36.520 --> 0:20:39.439 It's it's political liberty. I guess if you don't know 0:20:39.520 --> 0:20:43.080 anything about history, that might be a difficult question of whatever. 0:20:43.200 --> 0:20:46.199 So okay, Next one, what is one responsibility that is 0:20:46.320 --> 0:20:50.240 only for United States citizens? Join a political party, write 0:20:50.240 --> 0:20:53.800 for a newspaper, serve a jury, join the military. I mean, 0:20:54.000 --> 0:20:56.919 could the average person really do they all think they 0:20:56.960 --> 0:21:01.320 have to write for a newspaper. I don't. I don't 0:21:01.359 --> 0:21:04.480 think that that's how I just I cannot imagine that 0:21:04.520 --> 0:21:08.000 they would not get that correctly. Next question, what do 0:21:08.040 --> 0:21:11.080 we show loyalty to when we pledge allegiance to the 0:21:11.200 --> 0:21:15.280 United Nations, to the national anthem, to the United States, 0:21:15.560 --> 0:21:19.560 or to the party of the current president. You have 0:21:19.680 --> 0:21:24.640 to say that this is not like this is are 0:21:24.680 --> 0:21:26.879 you smarter than a fifth grader? I don't think think 0:21:26.920 --> 0:21:29.000 it's smarter than you a third grader? Like this is 0:21:29.040 --> 0:21:32.440 not a This is for citizenship. This is to get 0:21:32.480 --> 0:21:35.199 to vote in all of our elections. This is not 0:21:35.320 --> 0:21:37.800 a hard thing. I don't believe people could possibly be 0:21:37.840 --> 0:21:41.399 getting these things wrong. What groups of people were taken 0:21:41.440 --> 0:21:47.240 to America and sold as slaves Australians, African, Chinese or Spaniards. 0:21:47.320 --> 0:21:49.440 I think an alien would actually know this answer, because 0:21:49.440 --> 0:21:52.439 we've talked about so often. It's Africans. What are the 0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:55.400 two major political parties of the United States? The judicial 0:21:55.400 --> 0:21:59.960 and executive checks and balances Democrats and Republicans, the Senate 0:22:00.040 --> 0:22:03.080 and the House. If you got a question like this 0:22:03.320 --> 0:22:06.520 wrong and you were not a citizen, you should have 0:22:06.640 --> 0:22:10.080 to be ejected from the country. You should have to 0:22:10.200 --> 0:22:14.000 sit in the last row of a jet blue flight 0:22:14.400 --> 0:22:17.920 that has one of the windows blown out near the toilet. 0:22:18.080 --> 0:22:21.560 If you possibly get questions like these wrong, what is 0:22:21.640 --> 0:22:24.280 the capital of the United States. I'm not even going 0:22:24.359 --> 0:22:28.040 to give you guys options, but this is for citizenship. 0:22:28.480 --> 0:22:33.280 This is how easy it is to give this away. Literally, 0:22:33.840 --> 0:22:37.040 what did the Declaration of Independence do? Start the first 0:22:37.080 --> 0:22:40.200 free libraries, free the I'm not joking when I said 0:22:40.200 --> 0:22:43.080