1 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,120 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers game. Thank you all for 2 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:08,879 Speaker 1: being here on this Thursday. I'm happy to be back 3 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:11,600 Speaker 1: with you. I really hope you enjoyed the last episode 4 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:14,280 Speaker 1: on Monday by Congressman Corey Mills. I may have an 5 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:17,280 Speaker 1: update in the future. I know this isn't a gossip 6 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: podcast per se, even though my friends really want me 7 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 1: to do a gossip podcast, but this is not it. 8 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: When I have a big scoop like that, though that's 9 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: a little bit on the gospel side, I'm going to 10 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 1: share with you because otherwise a reporter's going to scoop it, 11 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 1: and you guys should get it first because you're my 12 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 1: loyal audience. I had a family reunion last week actually, 13 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 1: and one of my cousins who listens to the pod 14 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 1: said to me, I really like your show. There's a 15 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: little too much math in it, so episode I'm going 16 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:49,479 Speaker 1: to try to break that up a little bit with 17 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: episodes that aren't so math intensive. And this episode is 18 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 1: both a little math intensive and has a narrative a 19 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: story to it that I think is important something that 20 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: the Trump administration is doing that people should know. So 21 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 1: I wanted to do a catch up episode on all 22 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 1: the data that has broken in the last week because 23 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:13,119 Speaker 1: I've had a lot of guests, heavy episodes and more 24 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 1: thematic episodes. So this one is on the twenty twenty 25 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 1: six midterms, right. I want to talk about the generic 26 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:21,759 Speaker 1: ballad because it's how will affect us in a nation 27 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,759 Speaker 1: depending on who wins the midterms. So the congressional generic ballad, 28 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 1: which is overall how people are feeling in the country. 29 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 1: They don't talk about a specific race, but you know 30 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:36,480 Speaker 1: who they are likely to support. It shows that Republicans 31 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:39,040 Speaker 1: have slipped about a point or two in the last month. 32 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 1: The Real Clear Politics polling average shows it's a D 33 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: plus three five race. That means that the nation as 34 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 1: a whole is voting about three point five percent more 35 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: Democrat than Republican. Now, remember the twenty twenty four election 36 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 1: was an R plus two race, so that represents a 37 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: five point five percent swinging towards the Democrats from the 38 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: previous election. Also remember this, I need this to be 39 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 1: a very important covey when I say we're talking about polling. 40 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 1: Polling does not predict the future. Polling is a snapshot 41 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: of the present. Things can change, things will change, but 42 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: it's important to know where people are. The economy is 43 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 1: really not great for a lot of people. I know 44 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 1: a lot of people applying for jobs, first time jobs, 45 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: college rees and college grads with graduates who are smart, 46 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: people who are hardworking, and they cannot get an interview 47 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:34,919 Speaker 1: for a job. They cannot find a job. It's rough. 48 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: Interest rates are still pretty high, not high compare like 49 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: the nineteen seventies, but they're high in general, and prices 50 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:45,640 Speaker 1: are still high. We're still dealing with the overall ramifications 51 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:49,079 Speaker 1: of printing too much money during President Biden's time in office. 52 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 1: All that's still there. And I think that people hope 53 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:54,960 Speaker 1: for a magic wand that Trump would fix everything, and 54 00:02:55,160 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 1: it has not happened. So a D plus three zero 55 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: point five race is better for Republicans than the twenty 56 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 1: eighteen election, but it likely means it's very likely, means 57 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 1: they're going to lose the House representatives. The Senate is 58 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:13,359 Speaker 1: still probably safe for a Republican. I mean, it would 59 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 1: be very difficult for Democrats to actually win the Senate 60 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 1: at this time. But DP plus three point five means 61 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 1: states like Michigan and Georgia, which are potential pick up 62 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: races for Republican It's very difficult. It becomes very difficult 63 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 1: in those states to sit there and see how they 64 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 1: win those states, and it also becomes really hard for 65 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 1: them to see how they hold North Carolina and potentially Maine. 66 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 1: I mean, Main's a weird state. So put that to 67 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 1: the side. Because Susan Collins is her own animal and 68 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 1: it's a unique set of circumstances. There hasn't been a 69 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: ton of recently high quality polling. If you look at 70 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 1: the results from the Fabrizio Lee Pole, which is published 71 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 1: in the Most Journal in April than July, it shows 72 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 1: about a one point shift towards Democrat. The Signal poll 73 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: also shows about a one point shift towards Democrat. In 74 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 1: the generic ballot Quantus Insight, which was a really good 75 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 1: pollster in twenty twenty four, they have a two point 76 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 1: swing towards Democrats. And the CMBC poll, not a high 77 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: quality poll, but it's worth mentioning has a three point 78 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: shift towards Democrats. Very few polls have had any kind 79 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 1: of shift towards Republican Atlas Intel did, but they're i mean, 80 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 1: they're saying it's going to be a Democratic landslide. So 81 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 1: it's one point doesn't mean anything. Emerson also has a 82 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 1: one point swing towards Republican, so not great news for 83 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:30,920 Speaker 1: Republicans going into key swing states and key Senate races. 84 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:34,840 Speaker 1: In the twenty twenty six elections. The Georgia Senate race 85 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 1: had a good poll for Republican congress from Mike Collins, 86 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 1: someone I know a little bit. I've spoken him a 87 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 1: few times. I think he's a really good guy. He's 88 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 1: got a lot of legislative accomplishments for somebody who hasn't 89 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:50,479 Speaker 1: spent decades in office. He's only been there for I 90 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:53,280 Speaker 1: think maybe four or six years. But it had him 91 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:56,360 Speaker 1: only one point behind Democrat John Ossop in the state 92 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: of Georgia. Allins can win the sea, but he's gone 93 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:03,720 Speaker 1: going to need the national environment to improve, not I 94 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 1: would say significantly. It's gonna have to improve for him 95 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 1: to win the seat, maybe by one point five to 96 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: two points in order him to win the seat. Otherwise 97 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: they're going to blame Republicans, the people of the votable, 98 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:16,840 Speaker 1: blame Republicans for everything bad, and it will take him 99 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 1: down like everybody else. In North Carolina, an Emerson pole 100 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 1: found that former Governor Roy Cooper has a six point 101 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 1: lead over R and C chairman Michael Wattley. This is 102 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:30,839 Speaker 1: I believe Wattley's first time ever running for office. Cooper 103 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 1: is a great recruit for Democrat. He was a popular 104 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 1: governor in a purple state. Who is young enough that 105 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: I mean he's not young he's like sixty eight, but 106 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:42,720 Speaker 1: I mean, I guess in the Senate he's young enough. 107 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 1: He's young enough. Just seems like he's not tainted by 108 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:48,360 Speaker 1: politics because he's only ever run for state positions. He's 109 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:52,280 Speaker 1: not tainted by DC politics in this poll. And I'll 110 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: admitted it's an early poll because his election is not 111 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 1: until November of twenty twenty six. Cooper has a benefit 112 00:05:57,120 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: of winning more Republicans than Wattley does Democrat, and Cooper 113 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 1: is crushing it with independence right now. Even though North 114 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,679 Speaker 1: Carolina hasn't elected a Democrat to the sentences two thousand 115 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:11,040 Speaker 1: and eight, that doesn't mean that they can't win this year. 116 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:14,720 Speaker 1: I remember Roy Cooper has never lost an election statewide 117 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:17,920 Speaker 1: in North Carolina, and I was looking it up in 118 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:21,039 Speaker 1: twenty twelve when he was running for Attorney general. I 119 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:24,320 Speaker 1: think for the re elect Republicans didn't even put forward 120 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,280 Speaker 1: a challenger, and that was the year that Romney won 121 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:31,119 Speaker 1: North Carolina, he almost lost the governor's race in twenty 122 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:34,599 Speaker 1: sixteen as well. And had any of those races gone 123 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 1: the other way, or had they even pit up a challenger, 124 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 1: I don't know why he was running unopposed for a 125 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 1: state wide office. At least, you know, throw Joe Schmo 126 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:44,160 Speaker 1: up there and hope for a miracle, because once in 127 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:48,720 Speaker 1: a while it does happen. They just let him, you know, 128 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 1: have an easy, one hundred per easy ride victory. He also, 129 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 1: I mean in the twenty sixteen governor's race, he would 130 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 1: have lost had the Libertarians not run a candidate. The 131 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:02,919 Speaker 1: Libertarian can for Governor got two percent of the vote 132 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 1: in it, and he Roy Cooper only won by eleven 133 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 1: thousand votes. So another case of a third party candidate 134 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 1: really ruined it for Republicans. It will be a tough 135 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 1: seat to hold. It's not impossible, but it's going to 136 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 1: be a tough seat because Roy Cooper is probably the 137 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 1: top recreit they could have gotten for this election cycle. Now, 138 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 1: there is an election this year that I want to 139 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:27,120 Speaker 1: talk about too. Elections actually won the New Jersey Governor's race. 140 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: There was a poll from stem site Research. It's a 141 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:35,080 Speaker 1: new research company, but it's from the Polsters of Monmouth, 142 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 1: which are very well respected polsters in the state. I 143 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 1: honestly think that they get things really way too off 144 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: to get as much respect as they do. But they 145 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 1: have a long history of getting things right. But they've 146 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 1: had a couple of doozies, and when they I meanies, 147 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 1: when I mean doozies, I mean doozies in polling, but 148 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 1: before that decades of correct polling. So they find that 149 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:03,239 Speaker 1: Democrat Mickey Cheryl leading Republican Jack Chitdarelli by six points 150 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:06,560 Speaker 1: forty eight to forty two in the Garden State. That 151 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 1: doesn't seem great, but remember four years ago Chitterarelli was 152 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 1: down in the same in the Mammoth Pole, the same 153 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 1: people who did this poll by sixteen points against incumbent 154 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 1: Governor Phil Murphy, and that race wasn't even considered close, 155 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 1: it wasn't considered worth paying attention to. Chitarelli is the 156 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 1: underdog in this fight, but it is not the same 157 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 1: state that it was four years ago. I think people 158 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 1: need to remember that as we're heading towards these very 159 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:38,960 Speaker 1: important governor elections, like including in Pennsylvania, a top recruit 160 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 1: announced they're running against Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania. I think 161 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:46,319 Speaker 1: it's important to remember that it's not the same state. 162 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:52,320 Speaker 1: Right in Pennsylvania, the Democratic advantage in voter enrollment is 163 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 1: five hundred thousand fewer than it was three years ago 164 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 1: the first time he ran. When he ran in twenty 165 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:02,439 Speaker 1: twenty two, when Oshapi ran for governor, Democrats had five 166 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:05,839 Speaker 1: hundred There was five hundred and sixty thousand more registered 167 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 1: Democrats than Republicans. As of now, and we are still 168 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 1: eighteen months from the election, there were only sixty thousand 169 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 1: more Democrats than Republicans. Once again, super popular governor probably 170 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:22,440 Speaker 1: going to win, has the advantage, but there's a lot less, 171 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:25,839 Speaker 1: you know, meet on the bones for the Democratic base. 172 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 1: The same is true in New Jersey. In November twenty 173 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 1: twenty one, Democrats had one million, seventy thousand more registered 174 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 1: Democrats than Republicans. Bill Murphy always had that advantage of 175 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 1: over a million registered voters. Since then, in the four 176 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 1: years since that election, there are forty thousand fewer Democrats 177 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 1: and one hundred and sixty thousand more Republicans. So and 178 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:52,719 Speaker 1: that was a race that Murphy won by eighty four 179 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 1: thousand votes, and the Republican advantage has increased by two 180 00:09:56,520 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 1: hundred thousand in that four year period. So if there's 181 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,680 Speaker 1: any kind of polling error like there was four years ago, 182 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:06,280 Speaker 1: Chittarelli was supposed to lose by like eight points, and 183 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 1: I think he lost by two and a half. If 184 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 1: any kind of polling error exists this time, like it 185 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:15,200 Speaker 1: did last time, and like it has done in several 186 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 1: other elections. But if that polling error exists of five 187 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 1: to six points, that new voter enrollment advantage in New 188 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:26,079 Speaker 1: Jersey of two hundred thousand, one hundred and sixty thousand 189 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:31,319 Speaker 1: more Republicans forty thousand fewer Democrats means Chitarelly has a chance. 190 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 1: You know, he's not in the lead. It's not a 191 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:39,440 Speaker 1: super tight race right now, but he's the underdog. But 192 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 1: he has a chance. The election is not over in 193 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: New Jersey, New York City, the mayor's election in my 194 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 1: home city. This one hurts because it's basically over. It is. 195 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 1: If there was anyone in political leadership in this godforsaken 196 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 1: city with two brain cells of scratched together and start 197 00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 1: a fire, we could have a chance. A new Siena poll, 198 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 1: which only had a sample survey of three hundred, so 199 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: it's not a very high sample survey, but it has 200 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:14,280 Speaker 1: Mandani Zoram Mandani socialist candidate winning with nineteen points against 201 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:18,200 Speaker 1: former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Mandani has forty four percent, Cuomo 202 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:21,559 Speaker 1: has twenty five, Republican Curtis Leewa has twelve, and incumbent 203 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:26,319 Speaker 1: Mayor Eric Adams has seven percent. Now, I don't know 204 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 1: why these four numbskulls are the candidates that we have 205 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 1: to lead the biggest city in America. I don't know 206 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 1: why Catherine Garcia didn't run. She would have. She's a Democrat, 207 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 1: I don't agree with all of our policies. She would 208 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:41,239 Speaker 1: have actually been able to run the city. I fundamentally 209 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 1: believe she could run the city and make it function 210 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 1: and make sure we weren't falling into the abyss. She 211 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 1: wasn't a thirty three year old IVY list with no 212 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 1: job experience, or a disgraced former governor, or an insane 213 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:57,199 Speaker 1: person who peaked in the eighties, or a disgraced outgoing mayor. 214 00:11:57,240 --> 00:12:00,680 Speaker 1: She was a competent woman. She's a Democrat and agree policies, 215 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 1: but she could have. I don't know why we're stuck 216 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:07,160 Speaker 1: with this group. It's extremely frustrating when there were really 217 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 1: good candidates who could have run the race and done it. 218 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 1: All these candidates are flawed, every single one of them. 219 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 1: Only one has a path to beat Mondonnie, and it's 220 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:18,120 Speaker 1: Andrew Cuomo. I know that it's not comfortable to say 221 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 1: I've never voted for Andrew Cuomo. I don't like Andrew Cuomo. 222 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: He was a horrible governor. Well it was okay, it's 223 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:26,679 Speaker 1: like a few years of his first term, but after 224 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 1: that it just fell off the cliff. It was just horrific. 225 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 1: He handled COVID terribly. What I find from and this 226 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 1: is maybe a cynical view from a conservative Democrats oftentimes 227 00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:43,200 Speaker 1: I find in many of these blue states when they 228 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:48,719 Speaker 1: are governors, are all about managing decline, managing the decline 229 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:51,560 Speaker 1: of New York, which is really sad from somebody who 230 00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 1: lived my entire life here and goes back to the state, 231 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: you know, eight generations. I think there was no vision 232 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,319 Speaker 1: and optimism. It was about how to manage decline and 233 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:04,040 Speaker 1: just you know, rearranged seats in the deck chair of 234 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 1: the Titanic. While our tax base fled and our industries fled, 235 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 1: and that was Andrew Cuomo. But he is the only 236 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:14,720 Speaker 1: person who can beat Mandanni, which I would take managed 237 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:18,040 Speaker 1: to climb over a catastrophe of a socialist. So what 238 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:20,960 Speaker 1: should happen right now if there was a person with 239 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 1: a brain cell in Andrew Cuomo's entire team. Rather than 240 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 1: sending out insane tweets about his family lineage and who 241 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:33,719 Speaker 1: he is and saying that Mandannie you know, is attacking him, 242 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:35,840 Speaker 1: rend freeing his head or whatever he's saying on Twitter 243 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 1: to try to troll Mendanni, he should be meeting with 244 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:42,840 Speaker 1: the county, the borough Republicans. There are five boroughs. Every 245 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 1: borough has a Republican party. There's a Republican elected official 246 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 1: in four of the five boroughs, and say what do 247 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 1: you want? He should be saying, there are six Republican 248 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:54,800 Speaker 1: city council members at a fifty one he'll set. He 249 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 1: should sit there and say, you throw your support behind me. 250 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 1: I will not run any Democrats against all of your 251 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 1: incumbents in four years, and I will back two more. 252 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: I'll give you eight city councilors, which will be the 253 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:10,840 Speaker 1: most of the Republicans in decades. I will tell the 254 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 1: unions to back off your incumbents in the city. Make 255 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 1: deals right now. Michael Bloomberg, for all of his ills, 256 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 1: when he was mayor, knew how to make deals, Make 257 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 1: deals with people, to bring everyone together, instead of allowing 258 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:28,560 Speaker 1: Curtis lee While to destroy his legacy by running this 259 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: absolute garbage campaign and winning twelve percent and taking the 260 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 1: city down with his ego and his pride. And then 261 00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 1: tell Eric Adams and his seven percent, I'll name a 262 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:43,760 Speaker 1: bridge after you, I'll name a garden after you, a school, 263 00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 1: whatever you want, will i will do the Eric Adams Library, 264 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 1: whatever you want. Don't do this. Drop out, throw your 265 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 1: support behind me. There's another gentleman in the race who's 266 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: getting like two percent. Drop out, throw your support behind me, 267 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 1: and let's have a shot at making sure this city 268 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 1: doesn't work. I'll no many of them as deputy mayors. 269 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 1: Whatever you want, like whatever it's going to take, and 270 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 1: make the deal because Curtis ly one. Erg Adams cannot 271 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 1: win right now. With any poll I have seen, they 272 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 1: are in the between mid to low teens. Eric Adams 273 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 1: is in the single digit numbers. It's just over at 274 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: that point. Their negatives are way too high and only 275 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 1: only only silver aligning in this poll. For anyone who 276 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 1: is not up. You know, Mandani's rear end is the 277 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:36,560 Speaker 1: fact that about a quarter of New Yorkers twenty five 278 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 1: percent of New Yorkers do not know who he is. 279 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 1: They have no opinion of him. You have to understand. 280 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 1: I know you guys are listening to a political podcast, 281 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 1: and you probably spend a lot of time thinking listen 282 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 1: to podcasts. The average person doesn't like. The average person 283 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 1: doesn't vote, They don't know. They're going about their day 284 00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 1: and they think about this, especially local races, for the 285 00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:59,600 Speaker 1: first time, maybe two weeks before election day. That's when 286 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 1: they're you know, they started saying, oh, there might be 287 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 1: an election a couple of weeks. Who's running. There is 288 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:08,200 Speaker 1: an opportunity and a real opportunity. And I've heard that 289 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:10,480 Speaker 1: this is going to happen to blanket the city with 290 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:15,160 Speaker 1: millions of dollars in negative advertising against Mandanni and make 291 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 1: him as unlikable as everybody else. So then you're just 292 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: running a race of who's the most unlikable. Cuomo is 293 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 1: very unlikable, Sleeve was very unlikable, Eric Adams is comically corrupt. 294 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 1: Mandanni is a moronic socialist who's also inauthentic and incredibly unlikable. 295 00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 1: He's just young enough to be handsome, which the ship 296 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 1: is sale with other ones. I mean, let's not lie. 297 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 1: So that is that if they do not unite at 298 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 1: this point or in the next month or so and 299 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 1: blanket the city with negative advertising about Mandanni and how 300 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 1: truly horrific he is, he'll be the next mayor of 301 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 1: New York and good luck to us. So that is 302 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 1: my rundown of all the politics. Republicans are slipping in 303 00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:01,040 Speaker 1: the generic ballad by about a point nationwide, having trouble 304 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 1: in some Senate states like North Carolina. In New Jersey, 305 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 1: Chitdarelli is down but not out, especially if there's a 306 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,160 Speaker 1: polling error like there was last time. And in New 307 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 1: York it is getting pretty bleak. I know that's not 308 00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 1: the happiest to come and tarry for you guys, but 309 00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 1: I would rather tell you the truth than repeat things 310 00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:23,480 Speaker 1: you would like to hear. That's my pulling up date. Now. 311 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 1: Next is a story that should be getting more attention 312 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 1: about something that Trump administration is doing, but it hasn't, 313 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:35,359 Speaker 1: So that is coming up next. Stay tuned. There was 314 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 1: a little blurb in The New York Times two weeks 315 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 1: ago that the new head of USCAS, that's the United 316 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:45,399 Speaker 1: States Citizenship and Immigration Services, that their new head, Joseph Edlow, 317 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 1: is overhauling the citizenship test. Now. It didn't get a 318 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 1: lot of mention after that. It was like one sentence 319 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:55,640 Speaker 1: and a bigger article about him, and there weren't many 320 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 1: follow up deep dives. And he finally started giving interviews 321 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:02,560 Speaker 1: to some conservative outlets like Fox News and Brepbart News. 322 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 1: He said the test was too easy and he needs 323 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 1: to reflect the letter and the spirit in which Congress 324 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:10,040 Speaker 1: intended when they pass citizenship law. Says it's not about 325 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:12,199 Speaker 1: the questions aren't up to par. It's that there aren't 326 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:16,440 Speaker 1: enough of them, and they people applying for citizenship don't 327 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 1: get a sense of who we are as a country. Now, 328 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:21,720 Speaker 1: I know that you all have heard, and I have 329 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:23,640 Speaker 1: heard it a million times, so I'm guessing you guys 330 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 1: at least heard one hundred that the average American cannot 331 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 1: pass this citizenship test. I know you've heard that because 332 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 1: I know I have heard that, and you hear about, Oh, 333 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 1: there's all these questions and it's very detailed. There are 334 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:41,440 Speaker 1: between ninety to one hundred questions on the test, right, 335 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 1: only ten are actually asked. I don't know if everyone 336 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 1: understands this. So yes, you have to memorize one hundred 337 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:51,920 Speaker 1: different answers, but only ten are given and you only 338 00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:55,360 Speaker 1: have to get six of those ten correctly to pass. 339 00:18:56,080 --> 00:19:00,159 Speaker 1: So access to a lifetime in the United States, the 340 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:05,119 Speaker 1: ability to access our welfare state, our security state, our 341 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:09,280 Speaker 1: you know, everything, are lower taxes than most parts of 342 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:15,359 Speaker 1: the developed world. Everything, because you can answer six questions correctly. 343 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:19,680 Speaker 1: Six lifetime, right to vote to cancel out my vote, 344 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 1: to cancel out your vote to cancel out Donald Trump's vote. 345 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 1: Six questions, six questions. And I'm sure if you're like 346 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:32,560 Speaker 1: me and you have been around the general public, you 347 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:35,680 Speaker 1: don't have much faith of the hours person is informed 348 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:39,919 Speaker 1: enough to pass these questions. So for your entertainment and 349 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 1: you and if you've never looked at the test, I'm 350 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: going to take this test right now, right, I'm going 351 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:50,440 Speaker 1: to read these ten This is on Americanhistory dot SI 352 00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:53,440 Speaker 1: dot edu. You can take the citizenship test yourself. It's 353 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:57,400 Speaker 1: only ten questions, and I'm going to read you possibly 354 00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 1: a question. You can tell me, how hard do you 355 00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:02,679 Speaker 1: think it is. First question, what was one promise you 356 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:06,160 Speaker 1: make when you become a United States citizen? Ay, never 357 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 1: leave the US, be obey the laws, see offer housing 358 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 1: to soldiers or de pay taxes for traveling to other countries. 359 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 1: That is not a hard question that you don't even 360 00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:20,479 Speaker 1: have to study that. That's literally just logic. That's basic logic. 361 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 1: It's be obey the laws. Okay. Next, that is correct. 362 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,439 Speaker 1: By the way, I didn't read these beforehand. This is 363 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 1: just me going off with it. What is one reason 364 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 1: colonialists came to the America slavery, political liberty, communism to 365 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,440 Speaker 1: set up their own monarchy? Okay, it's a basic history question. 366 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:39,439 Speaker 1: It's it's political liberty. I guess if you don't know 367 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 1: anything about history, that might be a difficult question of whatever. 368 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,199 Speaker 1: So okay, Next one, what is one responsibility that is 369 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:50,240 Speaker 1: only for United States citizens? Join a political party, write 370 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 1: for a newspaper, serve a jury, join the military. I mean, 371 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,919 Speaker 1: could the average person really do they all think they 372 00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 1: have to write for a newspaper. I don't. I don't 373 00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 1: think that that's how I just I cannot imagine that 374 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 1: they would not get that correctly. Next question, what do 375 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 1: we show loyalty to when we pledge allegiance to the 376 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 1: United Nations, to the national anthem, to the United States, 377 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 1: or to the party of the current president. You have 378 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:24,640 Speaker 1: to say that this is not like this is are 379 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:26,879 Speaker 1: you smarter than a fifth grader? I don't think think 380 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 1: it's smarter than you a third grader? Like this is 381 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:32,440 Speaker 1: not a This is for citizenship. This is to get 382 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,199 Speaker 1: to vote in all of our elections. This is not 383 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,800 Speaker 1: a hard thing. I don't believe people could possibly be 384 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,399 Speaker 1: getting these things wrong. What groups of people were taken 385 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 1: to America and sold as slaves Australians, African, Chinese or Spaniards. 386 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:49,440 Speaker 1: I think an alien would actually know this answer, because 387 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,439 Speaker 1: we've talked about so often. It's Africans. What are the 388 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:55,400 Speaker 1: two major political parties of the United States? The judicial 389 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 1: and executive checks and balances Democrats and Republicans, the Senate 390 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 1: and the House. If you got a question like this 391 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 1: wrong and you were not a citizen, you should have 392 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 1: to be ejected from the country. You should have to 393 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:14,000 Speaker 1: sit in the last row of a jet blue flight 394 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,920 Speaker 1: that has one of the windows blown out near the toilet. 395 00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 1: If you possibly get questions like these wrong, what is 396 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 1: the capital of the United States. I'm not even going 397 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 1: to give you guys options, but this is for citizenship. 398 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 1: This is how easy it is to give this away. Literally, 399 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 1: what did the Declaration of Independence do? Start the first 400 00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:40,200 Speaker 1: free libraries, free the I'm not joking when I said 401 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:43,080 Speaker 1: that was actually the answer. Start the first free libraries, 402 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:46,639 Speaker 1: free the slaves. Define the government said the United States 403 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 1: is free. It's said the United States is free. That 404 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,200 Speaker 1: wasn't I guess maybe you might have gotten the Constitution confused, 405 00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 1: but it wasn't to set up libraries. How many senators 406 00:22:55,840 --> 00:23:00,919 Speaker 1: are there? There's one hundred. Okay, I'm done now with 407 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,399 Speaker 1: the question. I got all of them correctly. I think 408 00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:08,560 Speaker 1: you get my point. This is the most important thing. 409 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 1: These are questions that I would argue the average third 410 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 1: grader could probably answer. Maybe I have too much faith 411 00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 1: in the average third grader, but by fifth grade they 412 00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:20,840 Speaker 1: would all know this basic step. They've all been taught 413 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 1: it at least once. And if you're looking at the 414 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 1: itinerary of what we want from a person who is 415 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:33,640 Speaker 1: newly added to our country, you would want someone better 416 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:38,399 Speaker 1: than the average ten year old, not someone who is 417 00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:40,920 Speaker 1: on par with a ten year old and they may 418 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,120 Speaker 1: be in their forties or fifties, like you would want 419 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 1: someone of advanced intelligence and understanding. Also, it doesn't tell 420 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,359 Speaker 1: you who we really are as a country. It asked 421 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 1: you to memorize the several historical events and dates, which 422 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:53,680 Speaker 1: I get some people can't do that well. I mean 423 00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:55,639 Speaker 1: I can, but a lot of people can't. The most 424 00:23:55,880 --> 00:24:01,120 Speaker 1: basic premise of our government, I mean the most basic 425 00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:05,280 Speaker 1: and a few dates or like you know, common sense questions. 426 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,359 Speaker 1: It's it's a little little bit of civics, a tiny 427 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:12,119 Speaker 1: bit of very basic history, and you get to vote 428 00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:15,760 Speaker 1: and change the course of our history, course of our 429 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 1: country because you can memorize how many stars and stripes 430 00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:22,880 Speaker 1: there are. I'm very glad that Edlow is doing this. 431 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,720 Speaker 1: I think this couldn't have happened fast enough. And I 432 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 1: think that if we if the average adult cannot pass this, 433 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:34,120 Speaker 1: cannot get six six. All they do is six. When 434 00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,120 Speaker 1: I went to high school, seventy five was failing. It's 435 00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:39,400 Speaker 1: not even meeting the Saint Francis Prep minimum of passing 436 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 1: at least up at nine. So I'm glad this new 437 00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:48,000 Speaker 1: citizenship test should be out sometime. I think in the 438 00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:50,960 Speaker 1: beginning of next year. I'm looking forward to seeing how 439 00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,240 Speaker 1: he hopes to enhance it to make sure that it 440 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,360 Speaker 1: is more comprehensive towards who we are as a country. 441 00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 1: I know he says he's planning on ending the loop 442 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,400 Speaker 1: holes that allow people to take the test not in English, 443 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 1: which is beyond me that that's even possible. Anyway, we're 444 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 1: the greatest nation in the world. You shouldn't have to 445 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 1: play are you smarter than a fifth grade or civic 446 00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:12,359 Speaker 1: questions in order to be a citizen. It should be 447 00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:14,639 Speaker 1: a lot lot harder. You're listening to It's a Numbers 448 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:20,560 Speaker 1: Game with Ryan Grodowsky. We'll be right back now. It's 449 00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:22,640 Speaker 1: time for the Ask Me Anything segment of the show. 450 00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:23,960 Speaker 1: If you want to be part of the Ask Me 451 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 1: Anything segment, email me Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com. 452 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:32,200 Speaker 1: That's ryanat Numbers Game podcast dot com. Okay. First question 453 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,560 Speaker 1: comes from Patrick. He writes that he has seen the 454 00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,320 Speaker 1: abuse of the H one B VISA system firsthand, and 455 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,800 Speaker 1: it's frustrated that Republicans have drank the kool aid and 456 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 1: believing we're taking in the best and brightest. He wants 457 00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 1: to know given comments by Senator Mike Lee, which if 458 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:50,040 Speaker 1: anyone knows Senator Lee's history on H Oneb's it's been horrific, 459 00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,439 Speaker 1: but all of a sudden he's been talking of a 460 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,600 Speaker 1: big game or Vice President Jade Vans. Are we going 461 00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:58,680 Speaker 1: to see this issue address as at two in each? 462 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 1: And also, what are your opinions of Senator Schmidt? Senator 463 00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,520 Speaker 1: Schmid is the senator from Missouri. I don't know much 464 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,040 Speaker 1: about him. One of my friends works for him and 465 00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 1: does the social media, and he's super based and very 466 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 1: very good. So I think that's why his social media 467 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:14,760 Speaker 1: is very good. And I guess I like that he 468 00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:16,920 Speaker 1: hired him. I have to read. I've read up a 469 00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,240 Speaker 1: little bit on his legislative history, and there was only 470 00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,879 Speaker 1: one Bill of substance and it was dealing with broadband 471 00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,920 Speaker 1: spectrum when it comes to space travel. I didn't really 472 00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,600 Speaker 1: know what it was talking about. But I don't dislike him. 473 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,280 Speaker 1: I don't particularly like him. I don't really think a 474 00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,399 Speaker 1: lot about him. He hasn't had a lot of really 475 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,920 Speaker 1: enticing legislation that I really could sit there and say, Wow, 476 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,439 Speaker 1: this is leadership and this is thought provoking. I think 477 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:42,600 Speaker 1: that he's fine. He votes well, and he votes much 478 00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:45,720 Speaker 1: better than the Senator Blunt did who he replaced, but yeah, 479 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 1: I have a very basic opinion of him. When it 480 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,639 Speaker 1: comes to H one bs and skilled immigration. Polling is 481 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 1: clear that Americans believe that we have a large skills 482 00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:57,880 Speaker 1: gap and that H one B system is the only 483 00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 1: way to fix that problem. I couldn't find an exact 484 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,080 Speaker 1: poll break down by party, but one pole I found 485 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 1: sid seventy one percent of Trump supporters believe that we 486 00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:10,560 Speaker 1: need more high skilled immigration to our country. I think 487 00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 1: the problem is in both the wording of the polling 488 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:17,760 Speaker 1: and our conception of immigration. Rather than thinking we need 489 00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 1: more high skilled immigration, the question should be should all 490 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:25,760 Speaker 1: immigrants be skilled? Right? Because once we weed out low 491 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:29,520 Speaker 1: skilled immigration, that's unnecessary, the ones through family reunification and 492 00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:31,520 Speaker 1: the visa lottery system and all the rest of it. 493 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,560 Speaker 1: And like ninety percent of our immigration is skilled, I 494 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:36,760 Speaker 1: guess we could use some farm hands or some you know, 495 00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,480 Speaker 1: I don't know, people who clean hotels or whatever. But 496 00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,520 Speaker 1: if like eighty to ninety percent of our immigration was skilled, 497 00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,240 Speaker 1: then it's just a question on levels. Then it's just 498 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:48,440 Speaker 1: a question of how many numbers were taking in. And 499 00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:52,199 Speaker 1: that is a better place to be in than the 500 00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:56,480 Speaker 1: overall idea of skilled versus not skilled immigration. I think 501 00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,199 Speaker 1: that when you're dealing with that kind of concept or oh, 502 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:01,320 Speaker 1: people are naturally going to be on the side of 503 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,960 Speaker 1: wanting more skilled immigration. But if almost all immigration is skilled, 504 00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:08,240 Speaker 1: then it's just a question of numbers, and people more 505 00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,439 Speaker 1: times than not prefer lower numbers and higher As far 506 00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:13,479 Speaker 1: as changes go, by the way, the White House did 507 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 1: to prove some changes to the H one B system, 508 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,960 Speaker 1: including changing the way that H oneb's are distributed. This 509 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,400 Speaker 1: comes from the Hindustan Times. And by the way, if 510 00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:24,040 Speaker 1: you care about this issue, because it sounds like you 511 00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:27,360 Speaker 1: do about the H one B issue, I highly recommend 512 00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:32,920 Speaker 1: reading English language versions of Indian newspapers because Indian newspapers, 513 00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,720 Speaker 1: because India loves, you know, flooding H one B systems, 514 00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:40,800 Speaker 1: H one B visas, they cover this issue like you know, 515 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 1: white girls covering true crime, like they are all over 516 00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,800 Speaker 1: this issue completely. So this is from the Hindustan Times. 517 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 1: The new rules anticipated to relaunch a Trump administration plan 518 00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 1: that would prioritize H one B applicants based on earnings 519 00:28:55,960 --> 00:29:00,160 Speaker 1: rather than the existing random lottery system. At present, there's 520 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,640 Speaker 1: an annual cap up eighty five thousand visas under the 521 00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:05,560 Speaker 1: H one B program, which is widely used by the 522 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:09,360 Speaker 1: tech sector on annual basis, a random lottery selects which 523 00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,080 Speaker 1: employers may fill the visa requests. In twenty twenty one, 524 00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 1: DHS recommended allocating visas based on earning, separated into four 525 00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:21,320 Speaker 1: categories to prioritize high paying positions. DHS attempted to switch 526 00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:25,080 Speaker 1: from a random selection procedure to a wage priority approach 527 00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:28,960 Speaker 1: under the Trump administration. Suggested regulation would put applicants based 528 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 1: on wag's promise, with higher paying positions given preference. According 529 00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:37,040 Speaker 1: to the administrations by American Higher American Program. So this 530 00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 1: is something that's great. I think it's really really important. 531 00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,800 Speaker 1: I think it's necessary, and I think that it's just 532 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:45,040 Speaker 1: I think the beginning of what we're going to see 533 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:46,800 Speaker 1: changes to the H one B system. I think more 534 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,680 Speaker 1: will actually come as time goes on. I know that 535 00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:52,840 Speaker 1: Trump has not been super coherent in his overall vision 536 00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,040 Speaker 1: of H one b's I know he's waffled the times, 537 00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:57,560 Speaker 1: he's gone very friendly with the tech sector, But it 538 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,720 Speaker 1: seems to me that this is something that the overall 539 00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:04,640 Speaker 1: administration is wanting to weed out, especially the immense amount 540 00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:08,240 Speaker 1: of corruption. Okay. Next question comes from Joel in Ohio. 541 00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:11,320 Speaker 1: He has a long I've been Ohio so many times. 542 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 1: I should tell Ohiohio campaign stories over time because Ohio 543 00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:18,240 Speaker 1: is a special place. He has a long response to 544 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,840 Speaker 1: my episode on the iPhone filtering unknown calls, which I 545 00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,000 Speaker 1: was great part of the email, but the question part, 546 00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:26,960 Speaker 1: because I don't want to give everyone too much to 547 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,960 Speaker 1: chew on on. It was asking should people answer polls 548 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,880 Speaker 1: when you get text mess from polls? Yes, Joel, please 549 00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:39,880 Speaker 1: if you get a poll answer it. My dad never 550 00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:43,040 Speaker 1: answers polls and then constantly complains about them, and I 551 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:46,920 Speaker 1: say you have to be part of answering them and 552 00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:50,360 Speaker 1: not just saying how left wing poles are. Here's the 553 00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:54,160 Speaker 1: one of the basic problems with our polling industry. There 554 00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:58,040 Speaker 1: are a lot of people who watch MSNBC all day 555 00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:00,960 Speaker 1: long and dream of the mo A polster is going 556 00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,000 Speaker 1: to call them and ask them their opinion, so they 557 00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:05,120 Speaker 1: can scream that they hate Donald Trump to somebody who 558 00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:08,240 Speaker 1: has to listen. If they have the numbers, they would 559 00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,440 Speaker 1: call the polsters themselves and give them a daily update. 560 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,520 Speaker 1: And then you have people like my dad, God love them, 561 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,920 Speaker 1: Joel you know, you have to answer these polls. They're 562 00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:19,920 Speaker 1: not asking you for money nine times out of ten, 563 00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:22,840 Speaker 1: and it makes and if they answer, if they ask 564 00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,360 Speaker 1: for money, just hang up whatever, it's fine, hang up. 565 00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:27,920 Speaker 1: It's not a big deal if you it makes it 566 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:31,440 Speaker 1: harder for people like me and people in who work 567 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,240 Speaker 1: in government who want to see the feelings of the 568 00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:37,960 Speaker 1: public on a number of different issues when we don't 569 00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:42,000 Speaker 1: have accurate polsters pulling because the people who are overwhelmingly 570 00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:45,360 Speaker 1: responding to the polling are you know, writing letters to 571 00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:49,160 Speaker 1: MSBC saying please bring back joy read like that is 572 00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,040 Speaker 1: who are answering the polling too often? And we are 573 00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:56,760 Speaker 1: not getting people who are right wing or lower repensity 574 00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:00,800 Speaker 1: or no college degree, and like they're not sampling enough 575 00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:04,800 Speaker 1: of those people. So Joel, please please please answer the 576 00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:06,840 Speaker 1: pole if you get a text and if you're not 577 00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 1: interested in any donations or anything like that, just eggs 578 00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:11,600 Speaker 1: out of it. But a pole should only take a 579 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:17,840 Speaker 1: few minutes, and it's really important for how corporations, nonprofits, politicians, 580 00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:21,960 Speaker 1: everybody responds to things. So please Republicans answer polls. Okay. 581 00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:24,479 Speaker 1: Last question for this episode of the podcast comes from 582 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:27,160 Speaker 1: David Rolf. He asked about my feelings of the Senate 583 00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:32,160 Speaker 1: races in Texas and Kentucky. In Texas, I think Senator 584 00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,280 Speaker 1: Cornyn is done. I don't think he's going to win 585 00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,960 Speaker 1: unless the establishment White Knight shows up and Qrnan agrees 586 00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,520 Speaker 1: to step down and they rally around him. I think 587 00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,000 Speaker 1: it's likely to Ken Paxton. I don't think Wesley Hunt 588 00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:47,239 Speaker 1: can do it. I think Paxson has this level of 589 00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:50,080 Speaker 1: built in trust with the average Conservative voter or the 590 00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:55,040 Speaker 1: average Trump voter, and they under they view him in 591 00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:57,760 Speaker 1: the same way they view Trump. They understand that he 592 00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:02,560 Speaker 1: is a deeply her sony, problematic figure as far as 593 00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:04,760 Speaker 1: his personal life goes right. They don't want to live 594 00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:08,360 Speaker 1: his personal life or don't want their children to live 595 00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:10,920 Speaker 1: in their person life. But they believe he is a fighter. 596 00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 1: And America right now, Republicans right now are not looking 597 00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:21,280 Speaker 1: for They're not looking for a pastor. They're looking for 598 00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:23,800 Speaker 1: a man who will step up and fight, and they 599 00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:27,400 Speaker 1: view Paxton as that person. You know, I talked to 600 00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:31,920 Speaker 1: one Texas politician last year about Paxton. He said, Look, 601 00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,440 Speaker 1: he's a crook, but he's our crook. Like he's corrupt, 602 00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:36,360 Speaker 1: but he's our corrupt. Guy because he's going to fight, 603 00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:38,960 Speaker 1: and he sued the Biden administration. He sued the I 604 00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:41,160 Speaker 1: think he was there for Obama too, but he sued 605 00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:45,400 Speaker 1: the Biden administration endlessly to try to stall their agenda. 606 00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,320 Speaker 1: And he's just considered a champion for the base and 607 00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:49,840 Speaker 1: they're going to stick with them. They're going to ride 608 00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:54,120 Speaker 1: with them. And unless somebody comes in who is universally 609 00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:57,640 Speaker 1: beloved and Cornyn is no longer there, so the attacks 610 00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:00,480 Speaker 1: against corn because he's so bad on so many policies, 611 00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:03,000 Speaker 1: doesn't happen if he can't attack Cornyan. And there's this 612 00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:05,840 Speaker 1: universally loved white knight, which I don't know who that is, 613 00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:09,400 Speaker 1: but if that person shows up, it's going to be Paxton, 614 00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:11,359 Speaker 1: and then that will be a billion dollar center race 615 00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,239 Speaker 1: in Kentucky. I am biased because I have a lot 616 00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:16,239 Speaker 1: of friends who work for Nate Morris. He is the 617 00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:19,360 Speaker 1: businessman for Kentucky. I really like a lot of what 618 00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:21,160 Speaker 1: he says. I think he'd be a good senator based 619 00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:22,920 Speaker 1: on what I know. I do think he's probably the 620 00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,719 Speaker 1: favorite right now. I think Mark Alprin said the same thing. 621 00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:29,040 Speaker 1: There's a lot of JD. Vans for Senate alumni. Work 622 00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:32,360 Speaker 1: in his campaign right now. So if you're a real 623 00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:36,399 Speaker 1: campaign nerd, you could probably see some overlaps of the JD. 624 00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,640 Speaker 1: Vans campaign and Nate Morris's campaign and what they're kind 625 00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:42,160 Speaker 1: of doing. There's a lot of similarities I'm seeing. So 626 00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,400 Speaker 1: I like Nate Morris. I like him based on what 627 00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:47,479 Speaker 1: I know, and I think he's probably likely to win. 628 00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:52,320 Speaker 1: I wouldn't be shocked if you see Don Junior, Charlie Kirk, 629 00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,560 Speaker 1: the President, a bunch of go rally around him. I 630 00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:57,640 Speaker 1: think that the president, maybe the President will stay out 631 00:34:57,640 --> 00:34:59,919 Speaker 1: of it because I think he's got relationships with congres 632 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,839 Speaker 1: some bar but I wouldn't be surprised that they all 633 00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,520 Speaker 1: rally around Morris in the end and he ends up 634 00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:08,600 Speaker 1: winning the nomination. I also want you to do one thing, 635 00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:10,759 Speaker 1: by the way, because this makes me laugh every time 636 00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:13,279 Speaker 1: I think about it. Take out your phone, we're here, 637 00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:15,080 Speaker 1: your computer, and I want you to google the name 638 00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:18,920 Speaker 1: Nate Morris, Kentucky and see what he looks like. And 639 00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,960 Speaker 1: then google stand from the show American Dad, from the 640 00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,880 Speaker 1: cartoon American Dad, and you tell me this is not 641 00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:28,600 Speaker 1: the same person. That's all for the show today. Thank you, 642 00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,279 Speaker 1: guys for listening. I'll be back on Monday. If you 643 00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:35,160 Speaker 1: like this podcast, please subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, 644 00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:37,000 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, and I will see you 645 00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:37,680 Speaker 1: guys soon