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Speaker 2: FedEx coming out with results it's seen as economic belt whether,
Speaker 2: even as it clearly has its own issues to work through,
Speaker 2: namely this overhaul of its businesses. Lee Costco is our
Speaker 2: senior transport, logistics and shipping analyst here at Bloomberg Intelligence
Speaker 2: and Lee a good report here from FedEx, whose shares
Speaker 2: are right now up about two percent. A forecast that
Speaker 2: came in better than most people expected, including the range
Speaker 2: that it offered.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it definitely was a nice print for their third quarter,
Speaker 3: which includes their peak season in December. It shows us
Speaker 3: that they're really executing on their plan. The beat was
Speaker 3: really driven by their express business or their parcel business.
Speaker 3: Their freight business, which is their less than truckload business,
Speaker 3: continues to struggle. That's really not a company specific thing,
Speaker 3: that's an industry thing. The LTL market has been pretty
Speaker 3: weak over the last year, and we expect that weakness
Speaker 3: to continue. I think people were encouraged about the fact
Speaker 3: that they raise their full year guidance. You know, they
Speaker 3: did put out a twenty five dollars EPs target for
Speaker 3: twenty twenty nine when they had their analyst AA a
Speaker 3: couple of months ago. You know, we've written over the
Speaker 3: last month that, you know, we think that might be
Speaker 3: conservative if the company continues to execute on its restructuring
Speaker 3: plan and assuming that the you know, the economy doesn't
Speaker 3: create from here all a recession. You know, I think
Speaker 3: that you know, its numbers can be can be made.
Speaker 4: Lee.
Speaker 5: I know it looks that some of my banker buddies
Speaker 5: got to this company at some point because they are
Speaker 5: going to spin off their freight unit.
Speaker 6: I guess sometime in June. What are you looking for there?
Speaker 6: What's the what's what? What's the story there?
Speaker 5: Do you think?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 3: So, I think they're following the footsteps of UPS. UPS
Speaker 3: also had a lesson truckload business. They spun out whether
Speaker 3: they sold excuse me to a t f I, a
Speaker 3: Canadian company. Uh. And you know, I think what these
Speaker 3: parcel carriers want to do is they want to focus
Speaker 3: on you know that they're parcel carriers and not some
Speaker 3: of these ancillary businesses. You know, I think this will
Speaker 3: really sharpen FedEx's focus. U The LTIL business or the
Speaker 3: FedEx's LTL business is a great business. It's the largest
Speaker 3: lesson truckload carrier in North America. It'll be an interesting spinoff.
Speaker 3: I mean, we'll see where valuations are by the time
Speaker 3: they spin it off in June. You know, like I mentioned,
Speaker 3: tonnage has been kind of depressed. So obviously maybe they're
Speaker 3: not getting the most that they possibly can, I mean
Speaker 3: because of the timing. But I think it is it
Speaker 3: is a good thing for them to do, and only
Speaker 3: are doing that, you know, they're they're they're doing things
Speaker 3: that that they that was you know, unheard of maybe
Speaker 3: three five years ago. You know, they're combining their air
Speaker 3: and ground networks, and they're doing things within their businesses
Speaker 3: to really drive overall productivity. You layer on top of
Speaker 3: that technology investments to enhance productivity. You know, this could
Speaker 3: be a company that can you know, generate earnings you know,
Speaker 3: north of that twenty five dollars number that they put
Speaker 3: out for twenty twenty nine.
Speaker 2: Lee final question too. We have about thirty seconds left.
Speaker 2: We know FedEx has sued the federal government for refunds
Speaker 2: on tariffs, any update, any progress on that front. Is
Speaker 2: this a meaningful number?
Speaker 3: Yeah, honestly, I don't know much about that. They really
Speaker 3: didn't talk that much about it on the earnings call,
Speaker 3: but it would probably be would be a pass through
Speaker 3: that they get back to their customers, so it's not
Speaker 3: really going to impact their bottom line, and if it does,
Speaker 3: it'd probably be, you know, not meaningful.
Speaker 2: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Speaker 5: Well up, potential mega m and a trade reported today
Speaker 5: Potential Unilever is in talks to sell its food business
Speaker 5: to McCormick and what would be the biggest overhaul of
Speaker 5: the company since it was founded almost a century ago.
Speaker 5: We're talking this business could be worth about thirty three
Speaker 5: billion US dollars, so that would be a sizeable trade there,
Speaker 5: for sure. Let's get down into the details here. We
Speaker 5: can do that with Diana Gomes. She is a senior
Speaker 5: equity research channels.
Speaker 6: To Bloomberg Intelligence. She's based in London, Diana.
Speaker 5: This would be a big, big move for Unilever's what's
Speaker 5: the strategy here?
Speaker 4: Yes, thank you. So the strategy for Union Lever would
Speaker 4: be really to simplify and refocus more on the higher
Speaker 4: growth imium skincare wellbeing beauty portfolio, which is what the
Speaker 4: company is trying to do in order to reach about
Speaker 4: two thirds of sales in the midterm. So it is
Speaker 4: not surprising that Unilever is considering a split. I believe
Speaker 4: the questions are more out that will be structured.
Speaker 6: So is this a move?
Speaker 5: I mean, I see the stocks of just fractionally today.
Speaker 5: Is this something that was expected by the street? Is
Speaker 5: this something the street would support? Is this evaluation that
Speaker 5: seems reasonable?
Speaker 4: So the valuation we pam up with we calculated a
Speaker 4: potential nine times if it too a bit multiple or
Speaker 4: potential three point two billion euros of a BIT nine
Speaker 4: twenty twenty six for the foods business as part of
Speaker 4: unil Ever, which would be aligned with packaged food multiples
Speaker 4: and slightly below Union versus multiple at the moment, which
Speaker 4: accounts for the fact that foods has been a slower
Speaker 4: growth segment for unil ever, but it's still margin a creative,
Speaker 4: it's cash creative, so a quick sale at a non
Speaker 4: favorable value would not be something that I see, you know,
Speaker 4: ever working for. But in the prior days, we have
Speaker 4: seen more chatter in the market about unil ever potentially
Speaker 4: spitting up some considerations for a split, spin off, a sale.
Speaker 4: There are many ipodsis being put out there, so it
Speaker 4: is not coming as a complete surprise. I believe the
Speaker 4: details are quite thin at the moment, so it's difficult
Speaker 4: to just say so.
Speaker 5: But I think we've seen a lot in the consumer
Speaker 5: products state space just over the last several weeks several months,
Speaker 5: a lot of companies re examining kind of their their
Speaker 5: portfolio brands. And because there's been a lot of competition
Speaker 5: from private label there's been you know, a lot of
Speaker 5: inflation author that has been pinching the consumer, it seems
Speaker 5: like a lot of these companies are re examining their portfolios.
Speaker 5: Should we expect more of this going forward.
Speaker 4: Yes, definitely. So that's a trend that we see continuing
Speaker 4: through through the year. And it is also possible that
Speaker 4: the current uncertain environment from the geopolitics risk potential boost
Speaker 4: to inflation as well, which would further squeeze consumers, is
Speaker 4: prompting strategic thoughts as well. We and and that's the
Speaker 4: that's the backdrop under which this this comes. So not
Speaker 4: completely surprised given that foods would potentially be the segment
Speaker 4: more vulnerable in Lever's portfolio. But companies have been trying
Speaker 4: to simplify and get more focused. So that's the investment
Speaker 4: in their premium innovation allows them to better differentiate themselves
Speaker 4: from private toyable, more affordable options in the market, sometimes
Speaker 4: from smaller players.
Speaker 5: So Diana, who's typically investing in these big consumer products
Speaker 5: companies like Procter and Gamble, Unilever, because I see, you know,
Speaker 5: kind of their stock prices are kind of flatish over time,
Speaker 5: not a lot of movement. They do have nice dividend
Speaker 5: yields three four five percent. Are these investors that in
Speaker 5: their portfolio they just want these stocks to represent stability.
Speaker 4: That is one of the key elements for that staples
Speaker 4: that have been known for for that stability on income
Speaker 4: and some attractive dividend iills as well. So we see
Speaker 4: further buiveex and dividend growth still possible into the year,
Speaker 4: but obviously, with the potential for volume growth to not
Speaker 4: pick up as much as was initially expected free the war,
Speaker 4: it does raise some questions there.
Speaker 6: Stay with us.
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming.
Speaker 6: Up after this.
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Speaker 6: Let's go over to the consumer side.
Speaker 5: When you think about where consumers spend money, well for
Speaker 5: enjoyment and entertainment and all that kind of stuff. They
Speaker 5: can go take a cruise, they can go to a casino,
Speaker 5: go to a theme park, all that kind of stuff.
Speaker 5: But if the consumer may face some additional challenges going forward,
Speaker 5: what does it mean for those businesses?
Speaker 6: What does it mean for those businesses?
Speaker 5: Credits out there, Jody Lourie, She's a Bloomberg Intelligence credit
Speaker 5: analy Jody, how do you think about some of the
Speaker 5: industries you follow again, kind of the cruise industry, the
Speaker 5: gaming industry, the theme park business, hotels, all that kind
Speaker 5: of stuff. What's your view of the consumer and what
Speaker 5: are your companies telling you.
Speaker 7: So, I think, Paul, there's a couple of things to
Speaker 7: tackle here. First of all, of course, there's the pressure
Speaker 7: from the Iron War, which at the end of the day,
Speaker 7: I think there's more of an echo effect event, and
Speaker 7: it's more just adding to some of the pressures that
Speaker 7: the consumer is already feeling. We've been talking about the
Speaker 7: K shaped economy. We've been seeing some of the effects
Speaker 7: of the K shaped economy in hotels, in theme parks,
Speaker 7: in cruise lines, in gaming, but we haven't necessarily seen
Speaker 7: a broader scale effect of this inflation pressure on the
Speaker 7: consumer when it comes to higher income consumers, and so
Speaker 7: I think that's where you're going to start seeing a
Speaker 7: little bit more of that creep in and that pullback
Speaker 7: by the consumer. But I think at the end of
Speaker 7: the day, when you look at the companies, a lot
Speaker 7: of them are really well positioned. It's only the low
Speaker 7: twist rated companies that we are concerned about. The ones
Speaker 7: that are operating on a tight sort of cushion at
Speaker 7: the moment, such as six Flags, such as Hurts, the
Speaker 7: names that really are trying to get their balance sheets
Speaker 7: in order and trying to address fundamental issues at their
Speaker 7: companies that we're concerned about at this moment, right, especially
Speaker 7: when you.
Speaker 2: Look at especially when you look at the fact that
Speaker 2: traders are now betting on the possibility of a rate
Speaker 2: hike as well. Not only have they priced out rate
Speaker 2: cuts for the rest of this year, they're now looking
Speaker 2: at possibly the FED needing to increase interest rates because
Speaker 2: of rising inflation. A rate hike would really be bad
Speaker 2: news for a lot of these weak barrors with a
Speaker 2: lot of debt coming up, wouldn't it.
Speaker 7: It would absolutely scarlet And I think the key here though,
Speaker 7: is that a lot of the companies have been proactive
Speaker 7: in terms of deleveraging, and so for twenty twenty six,
Speaker 7: we actually don't have that much debt outstanding for a
Speaker 7: lot of the companies that we cover. It's really as
Speaker 7: you get in twenty twenty seven, twenty twenty eight, when
Speaker 7: it's that prolonged sort of view, that's when you start
Speaker 7: feeling the pressure. If this is a sort of you know,
Speaker 7: one year blip or so, I don't think it's really
Speaker 7: going to affect them. I mean, we didn't anaunce us
Speaker 7: on a company like Carnival, for example, which you know
Speaker 7: they've been working their way towards investment grade ratings. They
Speaker 7: obviously are feeling the strain of something like Iran and
Speaker 7: it's going to possibly affect booking levels for a lot
Speaker 7: of their consumers. But at the end of the day,
Speaker 7: for someone like Carnival, they've been proactively deleveraging, which is
Speaker 7: certainly a positive, and when we've looked at similar times
Speaker 7: in the past, it really hasn't affect EBIT of margins
Speaker 7: that much. Net income might be a different story, but
Speaker 7: EBIT margins not that much, which is a little surprising
Speaker 7: for us. I think where we're sort of hesitant to
Speaker 7: feel really comfortable for a company that's unheedged on their
Speaker 7: fuel exposure is more in that secondary and tertiary effects
Speaker 7: related to something like this massive event, and also the
Speaker 7: consumer feeling pressure. By that I mean is consumers if
Speaker 7: they're not spending on the scuba diving, if they're not
Speaker 7: spending on the random excursions the same way, you're not
Speaker 7: going to have that gravy of cash flow that a
Speaker 7: lot of these companies feel.
Speaker 5: It's the first weekend of March Madness, which makes me
Speaker 5: think about sports books, and my favorite sports book in
Speaker 5: Vegas is that Caesar's Palace.
Speaker 6: It is just awesome to take care of you there.
Speaker 6: And I noticed Jody that.
Speaker 5: Caesar's is I guess there's some reports that maybe they
Speaker 5: were going to be taken private by Tilman and Fertita.
Speaker 5: What does that mean for its bonds? What does that
Speaker 5: mean for bonds of other kind of leader companies out there.
Speaker 7: Well, Paul, we've been a little bit concerned about some
Speaker 7: of our companies just because we're towards that tail end
Speaker 7: of a really good momentum of the past few years
Speaker 7: post COVID, and so for someone like Caesar's, while they
Speaker 7: do have change of control provision, which what that is
Speaker 7: is that's a protection measure for anybody who owns their
Speaker 7: bonds to put back the bonds at one hundred and
Speaker 7: one percent of par while those bonds do have that,
Speaker 7: there's reports by Wall Street Journal and others that indicate
Speaker 7: that Caesars may have found loopholes or around their relationship
Speaker 7: with Vichy Properties, which is the one that owns about
Speaker 7: fifty percent of their properties. They have a sale lease
Speaker 7: back with Viacci. So not to get into too much detail,
Speaker 7: but if they're looking at ways to skirt conversations with
Speaker 7: key counter parties. I'm a little bit concerned when it
Speaker 7: comes to creditors, particularly when you look at where the
Speaker 7: bonds are trading, and they're trading so much below par.
Speaker 7: I think that's a sign that maybe perhaps whatever deal
Speaker 7: might be forming is not necessarily going to be credit
Speaker 7: or friendly. Then if you think about Caesar's in general,
Speaker 7: the long history legacy Caesars, what happened with their LBO,
Speaker 7: what happened with their restructuring. Now we have El Dorado
Speaker 7: as the management team. They're the ones who bought Caesar's
Speaker 7: and took on the Caesars name. At the end of
Speaker 7: the day, though, I think a lot of investors have
Speaker 7: a hard time getting over a name that burned them
Speaker 7: in the past. Feeling comfortable with this discussion going forward.
Speaker 7: We have a lot of companies within our sectors. We
Speaker 7: actually just publish something yesterday on it looking at the
Speaker 7: risk related to activist investors for a lot of our
Speaker 7: companies and what that could mean for these credits.
Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Speaker 6: The Business of Sports.
Speaker 5: Nobody does it better than our next guest, Randa Williams,
Speaker 5: US sports business reporter for Bloomberg News. He doesn't mail
Speaker 5: it in from home like the rest of these folks
Speaker 5: live in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studiing.
Speaker 6: We appreciate that.
Speaker 5: Rinda, I'm so glad that you here because to me,
Speaker 5: I've been following closely this WNBA collective barting agreement because
Speaker 5: what I think we've all noticed over the last several
Speaker 5: years is just the explosive growth of Women's National Basket,
Speaker 5: women's sports and general. But certainly the WNBA and boy
Speaker 5: I did not think the economics for them reflected that agreement.
Speaker 8: I remember when Kaylyn Clark was drafted. I think all
Speaker 8: of us Bloomberg included around the story that she was
Speaker 8: going to be making either it was seventy six thousand
Speaker 8: dollars or seventy eight thousand dollars. You think about the
Speaker 8: growth that she brought to the league as well as
Speaker 8: many many others. I mean, the league was growing before
Speaker 8: she arrived as well. And then she in her rookie class,
Speaker 8: Angel Reeves and Cameron Brinkin so many more served as
Speaker 8: a title wave and so their salaries didn't reflect that.
Speaker 8: But they will soon.
Speaker 6: They will soon.
Speaker 2: But there was a lot of bad blood between the commissioner,
Speaker 2: Kathy Engelbert and the players and the players' union leading
Speaker 2: up to the agreement that they'll come to something together.
Speaker 2: Where do they go from here? Because I wonder how
Speaker 2: much of that kind of cast a paul over how
Speaker 2: they work together going forward.
Speaker 8: It's a great question. And I think there was a
Speaker 8: picture that was posted, but I want to say it
Speaker 8: was by the women's the union side of things, and
Speaker 8: they toasted when they got a deal, and everyone looks happy,
Speaker 8: and of course they have to have a deal in
Speaker 8: order for the league to continue.
Speaker 7: Right.
Speaker 8: At the same time, there were some very very strong
Speaker 8: comments made that you know, in all my years of
Speaker 8: covering sports, both professionally and then as a kid, I've
Speaker 8: never heard anyone make comments like Nifista Collier said about
Speaker 8: Kathy Engelbert. And you know, we also reported that Kathy
Speaker 8: had conversations about whatever her next chapter was, meaning that
Speaker 8: she could depart the league. Now, is that still a
Speaker 8: factor now that a deal is close to being done,
Speaker 8: we're going to find out probably in the months and
Speaker 8: maybe a year or so to come. I think that
Speaker 8: the next time she talks will be at the WNBA Draft,
Speaker 8: and I have no doubt that someone will ask about it.
Speaker 5: Well, we know across sports globally, the main main driver
Speaker 5: of the economics is the rights fees.
Speaker 6: Media rights fees.
Speaker 5: Where's the WNBA these days?
Speaker 8: So that was a big part of this, was that
Speaker 8: the WNBA agreed to a new media rights deal I
Speaker 8: believe it was in twenty twenty four with Amazon, ESPN
Speaker 8: and Comcast. And so that deal is going to pay
Speaker 8: them at minimum two hundred million dollars a year. And Okay,
Speaker 8: so when the players were having conversations, they're like, listen,
Speaker 8: we're seeing expansion fees rise. We're seeing our media rides
Speaker 8: field fees rise. And so they were like, if all
Speaker 8: of this money is rising, where is it? When is
Speaker 8: it going to come down to us? And the league
Speaker 8: and the players saw two completely different ways for a
Speaker 8: long time, but they got on.
Speaker 2: Middle ground, all right, and it's about time.
Speaker 6: Frankly, I agree.
Speaker 2: I mean, let's talk about college basketball because it is
Speaker 2: March March twentieth and March madness is in full swing
Speaker 2: here at Bloomberg. Of course, we have our brackets for
Speaker 2: a cause. If you have a Bloomberg terminal's b r
Speaker 2: KT go where. We've invited folks to put together their
Speaker 2: bracket and appoint the charity that they would get a
Speaker 2: winning donation if they do come out ahead. And these
Speaker 2: are always full of surprises, absolutely.
Speaker 8: I mean, yesterday we saw Duke almost get upset by it.
Speaker 8: I was at a CBS watch party yesterday and everyone
Speaker 8: was on edge. And then of course BYU lost to Texas,
Speaker 8: and so that first round in that second round are
Speaker 8: always always dangerous. And I mean Ken is leading right now,
Speaker 8: so I mean it sounds like if he continues down
Speaker 8: this track, you know he'll be the winner.
Speaker 6: I am close on his heels. I'm in the top
Speaker 6: four percent. How many points do you have right now?
Speaker 6: Twenty six?
Speaker 5: I'm five sixty eight out of eight and seventy two
Speaker 5: people rank.
Speaker 6: I have Duke winning.
Speaker 5: I just pencil and Duke then I worked backwards. Oh
Speaker 5: and yesterday, let's not forget Carolina loss.
Speaker 8: Oh here we going?
Speaker 5: Where'd you got to school again?
Speaker 6: In case anyday exactly so it was. It was a
Speaker 6: very good day yesterday. So how big is this.
Speaker 5: For, you know, the media side of the business, because
Speaker 5: it just seems a lot of people are concerned and
Speaker 5: upset with college athletics in general because it's maybe gone
Speaker 5: swung too far the other way with nil and the
Speaker 5: transfer portal, and it's lost some of its cachet a
Speaker 5: little bit. Are we seeing that the numbers anywhere?
Speaker 8: I think you're seeing it across competition more than you
Speaker 8: are with the numbers, because I mean, you look at
Speaker 8: Duke's game yesterday. Again, I don't want I mean to
Speaker 8: shame you because they came out on top, but you
Speaker 8: know you have more of these results and more upsets
Speaker 8: happening because college players are being paid more so they
Speaker 8: have the choice to go and play for a smaller
Speaker 8: school that might be close to home, or maybe go
Speaker 8: somewhere far away that offered them an incredible price. Now,
Speaker 8: from the media rights perspective, Duke loses, and I can
Speaker 8: guarantee you there are media executives who are not going
Speaker 8: to be happy. And so Duke Kansas, all the blue
Speaker 8: chip schools. The farther they go, normally, the better the rights, the.
Speaker 2: Better the ratings and because of name, image and like this,
Speaker 2: these athletes and the transferportal, these athletes can go to
Speaker 2: schools where last year, you know, wasn't even on the map.
Speaker 2: So which schools look most interesting based on the players,
Speaker 2: the players who have come over from other teams.
Speaker 8: Which schools look I need to be in college to
Speaker 8: answer that question, because ultimately I would jump school I
Speaker 8: would jump schools every single year someone was paying me more.
Speaker 8: That's the right thing to do, I mean, that's unfortunately,
Speaker 8: that's a manipulative. Part of this is that if you
Speaker 8: are in a transferportal, Let's say you make eighty thousand
Speaker 8: dollars your freshman year, then you make one hundred and twenty,
Speaker 8: then you have a good season that same sophomore year.
Speaker 8: Now someone's offering you five hundred thousand dollars. Now you're
Speaker 8: offering now you're being offered a million dollars. Why wouldn't
Speaker 8: you try to be a college basketball player for as
Speaker 8: long as you possibly could if you have no aspirations
Speaker 8: or you're not good enough to go to the NBA.
Speaker 6: And that's what's happening.
Speaker 5: And that ties into a story that Janet Lauren had
Speaker 5: yesterday from bloom reviewsa that some of these kids leaving
Speaker 5: the IVY League.
Speaker 6: Which didn't used to happen, No, because they can.
Speaker 5: Then because Ivy League does not play pay Neil money.
Speaker 5: But if you have a good season the IVY League,
Speaker 5: maybe a power school, we'll pay you. So boy, it's
Speaker 5: a whole new world. I would again, I just kind
Speaker 5: of characterize it as the wild West, and there is
Speaker 5: allowed to us. There needs to be some regulation, and
Speaker 5: I think we're starting to move that way.
Speaker 6: There's a growing recognition there.
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Speaker 4: Yeah