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Speaker 1: Yeah, what is up? Welcome to another edition of the

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Speaker 1: NFL Fantasy Football Show, presented by Caesar's Reward. That's me

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Speaker 1: your man named de Marcus Grant, socially distancing and masking

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Speaker 1: when and where necessary, and we are just rolling along,

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Speaker 1: getting a little bit closer to the start of the

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Speaker 1: season than tweeks away from the NFL season getting kicked

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Speaker 1: off for twenties. Of course, we got plenty of good

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Speaker 1: stuff to talk about. A couple of guests that I'm

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Speaker 1: really excited about. I know, I know, I know, I

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Speaker 1: say that all the time, but it's true. I get

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Speaker 1: excited because I feel like we have a lot of

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Speaker 1: good guests, a lot of smart people who come on

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Speaker 1: this show' gonna dive into some new statistics, and a

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Speaker 1: lot of folks out there looking for the advanced analytics

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Speaker 1: trying to get an edge it. So we're going to

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Speaker 1: introduce you to a new thing, rushing yards over expected.

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Speaker 1: Nick Shook will jump in to talk about that a

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Speaker 1: little bit later on in the show. Also to have

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Speaker 1: Cynthia Freelance stopped by, because why not, It's always wonderful

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Speaker 1: to have her stopped by the show as well. But

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Speaker 1: before we get too deep into that as always want

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Speaker 1: to talk to my faithful producer, Senior Edward L. Murphy,

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Speaker 1: esquire Murphy, what's going on where you are? Uh? Well,

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Speaker 1: I finally watched Hard Knocks, so I know we will

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Speaker 1: talk about it a little bit later on in the

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Speaker 1: show today, but for more of a fantasy perspective there.

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Speaker 1: But it's so funny because people were kind of guessing

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Speaker 1: what's going to go on in this episode, but they

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Speaker 1: showed a lot of interesting stuff behind the scenes. And

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Speaker 1: I was watching with my girlfriend and the part where

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Speaker 1: Joey Bos signs his contract, which is an awesome moment,

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Speaker 1: and then she goes to me, She's like, why don't

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Speaker 1: you play in the NFL? And I was like, that's

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Speaker 1: a really good question, Like why am I not six

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Speaker 1: ft five pounds like Joey Bos sat in quarterbacks like

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Speaker 1: it's nobody's business. So that was a really good question

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Speaker 1: brought up by her last night. Yeah, that's that's where

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Speaker 1: you messed up. Was being built like a regular human.

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Speaker 1: You know, pass us that guy. That guy is the

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Speaker 1: biggest legs I've ever seen in human being. I'll tell

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Speaker 1: you that. Yeah, you know, so if you had a

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Speaker 1: chance to do it, all the solved. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: get into this. Bring in, Bring in our good friends.

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Speaker 1: Cynthia Freelance. She was here on the show just a

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Speaker 1: few weeks ago helping us out during Fantasy Camp. She

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Speaker 1: jumped in to talk about the a f C South.

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Speaker 1: But the always enjoy having her on the program, So

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Speaker 1: they appreciate you waking up with us, uh and hanging

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Speaker 1: out with us today. Good morning, you know, it's it's

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Speaker 1: a good morning here. We gotta we gotta have happiness

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Speaker 1: where we can. And this made me so happy to

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Speaker 1: come on here. So thank you for having me. It's

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Speaker 1: a good reason to get up. I appreciate it. We'st diven.

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Speaker 1: There's some some news headlines we've had over the last

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks or the last couple of days, I

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Speaker 1: should say, I which is sort of nice because we

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Speaker 1: went weeks without any real headlines. But now the guys

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Speaker 1: are sort of getting back to we we actually have

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Speaker 1: some things to talk about. Will Fuller says that if

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Speaker 1: the sky or that if he can stay healthy, the

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Speaker 1: sky is the limit. I know you're on. We talked

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Speaker 1: about the Houston Texans. We did the a f C

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Speaker 1: South a few weeks ago. Uh, I feel like we

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Speaker 1: all sort of agree. I guess my question to you is,

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Speaker 1: how do you approach guys that are labeled as injury prone,

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Speaker 1: whether or not you believe that, whether or not that

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Speaker 1: scares you. Is there a particular method you take when

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Speaker 1: when we talk about guys who have an injury history.

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Speaker 1: So here's the thing that people need to know about you, Marcus,

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Speaker 1: is that you do such a good job of telling

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Speaker 1: me what we're going to talk about before we get

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Speaker 1: on the pod, so I can go and dig into

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Speaker 1: a little extra research and homework ahead of time. So

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Speaker 1: there's two things that popped out about this one. The

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Speaker 1: first and you're getting some good exclusive here. You saw

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Speaker 1: that there were some comments that will Fuller made about

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Speaker 1: improving his posture and doing some work on like structural

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Speaker 1: whatever posture fixing stuff that he talked about in the news. Right.

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Speaker 1: So when I went back and I talked to some

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Speaker 1: of my people who very well know Will Fuller and

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Speaker 1: what's going on, and they do say that he's coming

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Speaker 1: in this season in a much like his posture is better,

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Speaker 1: he's not the training tables are different. So I will

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Speaker 1: say it seems to be that there is some truth

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Speaker 1: to that. So that's from kind of the horse's mouth,

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Speaker 1: if you will, right. And then the second one is

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Speaker 1: that when you look to kind of calculate what situations

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Speaker 1: that people are in where they're gonna get hurt. Unfortunately

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Speaker 1: for will Fuller, now he's going to be the source

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Speaker 1: of more of the defense. Is you know, they're going

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Speaker 1: to focus on him a lot more. So the only

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Speaker 1: problem with that is that he now he gets like

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Speaker 1: a lot more attention, which could actually bump up the

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Speaker 1: potential for injury a little bit. So it kind of

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Speaker 1: nuts out as even because he is in better shape,

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Speaker 1: he has he has addressed some you know things that

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Speaker 1: we're making him more injury prone before, and that is true,

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Speaker 1: but now he's going to be like the centerpiece of

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Speaker 1: the defense. So I would say just temper your expectations,

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Speaker 1: go for a ton of upside, but be mindful of

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Speaker 1: his downside because an injury history is it is just that.

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Speaker 1: It's true. It's it's easier to get injured once you've

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Speaker 1: been injured before. It is the truth, it is the

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Speaker 1: math is it out, So just just be careful. But

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Speaker 1: we do have some positive and we also have something Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I get it. Look, I have sort of

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Speaker 1: been taking advantage of the fact that I think a

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Speaker 1: lot of people are scared off by his injury history.

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Speaker 1: So getting him sort of as a mid round guy

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Speaker 1: and maybe a second or third receiver, I'm like totally

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Speaker 1: fine with that. Also, I feel like there hasn't been

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Speaker 1: a football discussion that involved the word posture this much

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Speaker 1: since Matt Patricia had his press conference with like a

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Speaker 1: year ago. That's telling people to basically sit up straight,

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Speaker 1: you know. I think that's like, honestly one of my

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Speaker 1: favorite compliments. People get me SYTHI great, thank you. My

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Speaker 1: mother really instilled that into me as a young child.

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Speaker 1: You uh. In San Francisco, according to Kyle use Check

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Speaker 1: uh you know, noted uh noted doctor. I guess I

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Speaker 1: don't know, but he says that Jerick McKinnon looks phenomenal. Now,

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Speaker 1: we were sort of hoping a couple of years ago

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Speaker 1: that Jerick McKinnon would take off. He just hasn't been

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Speaker 1: able to stay on the field. I mean about another

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Speaker 1: guy with with an injury history. But I guess the

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Speaker 1: question is, I mean, we're debating over wrecking most, we're

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Speaker 1: debating over Tevin Coleman. I mean, is it possible that

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Speaker 1: there's a third guy that's in the mix there, Like,

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Speaker 1: this thing is gonna get more muddled than maybe we're

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Speaker 1: giving it credit for right now. Yeah, probably, I mean

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Speaker 1: San Francisco running backs. It's going to be a problem

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Speaker 1: no matter what not for the team. That's great for them,

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Speaker 1: a lot of great options. But I feel like we've

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Speaker 1: been waiting for Jerick McKinnon to kind of be a

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Speaker 1: thing since everyone's like, Oh, he left Minnesota, he's now

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Speaker 1: gonna be Oh, it's gonna be amazing the whole thing.

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Speaker 1: But I don't know if they would have brought Tevin

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Speaker 1: Coleman in if they were completely sure, you know, last

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Speaker 1: but not this season obviously, but before if they were

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Speaker 1: completely sure that Derrick McKinnon was going to pan out.

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Speaker 1: He seems to be injury prone. So that's one where

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Speaker 1: I'll let someone else get him in a later round

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Speaker 1: or maybe try to get him off the waiver. There's

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Speaker 1: going to be a Jerick McKinnon game, and I don't

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Speaker 1: know which one it's going to be, but it's it's

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Speaker 1: gonna happen, and it's gonna be that one thing that

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Speaker 1: we talked about in Fantasy labver like we knew it,

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Speaker 1: but we just didn't know which one. So that one,

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Speaker 1: I'm just saying, you really really figure out if you

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Speaker 1: want again, if it's super late round, absolutely, but don't

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Speaker 1: overextend and don't talk yourself into like the Jerick McKinnon

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Speaker 1: being a thing so far right, because like that's look

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Speaker 1: at those twenties seventeen number, okay, seventeen, but that's seen

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Speaker 1: we're about, and there is a lot of uncertainty, So

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Speaker 1: just bake that into your valuation of him. Yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: you talk about the Jerick McKinnon game that we all

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Speaker 1: know it's coming, we just can't predict win. I mean

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Speaker 1: to that point, I think there's our old Michael Florio

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Speaker 1: on this pot a couple of weeks ago, mentioning the

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Speaker 1: fact that last year the Niners had five different running

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Speaker 1: backs at some point lead them in terms of Fantasy

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Speaker 1: points in a single game. I mean, so you, I

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Speaker 1: mean we knew, you know, most we know that Tevin

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Speaker 1: Coleman did. I think Matt Breed did it. I'm sure

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Speaker 1: there was a Jeff Wilson game in there somewhere, So uh,

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Speaker 1: it is very much in the range of outcomes that

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Speaker 1: Jerick McKinnon is going to have a blow up game

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Speaker 1: and uh figures out when this is your team. This

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Speaker 1: is something you should be able to tell us. This

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Speaker 1: is your team. This you're you're a fan, so you've

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Speaker 1: gotta be able to tell us that we're gonna be

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Speaker 1: looking to you for that tune in Fantasy Live, you know,

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Speaker 1: I'll get I'll get Kyle on the horn and uh

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Speaker 1: and have him tell me when he's gonna just start

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Speaker 1: feeding McKinnon h and against everybody, which, thank you, right

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Speaker 1: exactly exactly. Um. So Hard Knocks came back into our

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Speaker 1: life earlier this week. It's Hard Knocks Los Angeles. They're

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Speaker 1: following two teams this year. It's the Rams and the Chargers,

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Speaker 1: both being obviously in Los Angeles. I always sort of

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Speaker 1: enjoy watching it. I mean just obviously for these stories

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Speaker 1: and everything, but I also sort of enjoy watching it

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Speaker 1: because I always feel like there's a player that is

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Speaker 1: going to get what I call the Hard Knocks bump

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Speaker 1: in Fantasy, Like, you know, they will have an episode

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Speaker 1: where maybe they have a good practice or you know,

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Speaker 1: in the past we would see them having a good

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Speaker 1: preseason game, or the coach would talk them up and

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Speaker 1: suddenly the next day on Twitter, like all the fantasy

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Speaker 1: people are like, well, you gotta go draft this guy now. Um,

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Speaker 1: I would say it was Darrell Henderson because we saw

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Speaker 1: him running first team snaps in rams practice. Are you

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Speaker 1: buying it or is there somebody else after you know,

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Speaker 1: one whole episode that you think gets a bump. Maybe Tyrod.

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Speaker 1: Tyrod's hair looked great. Is there is there a hard

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Speaker 1: knots bump guy you see so far? I actually I

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Speaker 1: was gonna go with the Tyrod mostly because their first

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Speaker 1: four games, the schedule, and I think what's gonna happen

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Speaker 1: is we're gonna see like the Tyrod. He he's being

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Speaker 1: named as a starter and that like this is how

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Speaker 1: I see it unfolding. This is not from the one episode.

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Speaker 1: This is me, you know, being creative and being cooped

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Speaker 1: up inside too long and coming up with a theory. Right, So,

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Speaker 1: looking at looking at their schedule in those first one

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Speaker 1: and you didn't get the quarterback maybe you wanted or

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Speaker 1: maybe you you would super later around quarterback, Like of

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Speaker 1: now I need to like figure it out, and I

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Speaker 1: think the Tyrod kind of beginning of season bump. I

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Speaker 1: think that's gonna be like if you had to pick

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Speaker 1: a Streamer or something weird happens, I think I think

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Speaker 1: that's the one who would get the biggest value. But overall,

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Speaker 1: I think it's going to be Chargers, people who we

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Speaker 1: think of as getting bumps because for whatever reason, the

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Speaker 1: I mean, I feel like the Rams have focused on

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Speaker 1: the defense, right, like there's a whole Jalen Ramsey thing.

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Speaker 1: And then obviously Aaron Donald, who like you could just

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Speaker 1: put him on the screen I would just watch because

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Speaker 1: you're like, that's not a human, that's some sort of

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Speaker 1: cyborg there, right, So you know, I just feel like

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Speaker 1: we're going to see more from their defense, and then

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Speaker 1: we're gonna see more from the Chargers kind of overall,

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Speaker 1: because you know, I don't know, I just it seems

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Speaker 1: like how they were tracking last last night or I

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Speaker 1: watched the last night. I I do feel like Aaron

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Speaker 1: Donald was like they wanted him in the Avengers to

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Speaker 1: be the Hulk and he just wasn't available or something

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Speaker 1: like that. That that's all I can explain with with him. Um.

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Speaker 1: I also think talk about Tyrode, though I would say this,

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Speaker 1: over the last couple of weeks, I feel like people

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Speaker 1: have started talking more about tire Maybe because I've been

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Speaker 1: talking more about Tyrode and so I'm attributing it to

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Speaker 1: other people, But whatever, I feel like he's sort of exactly.

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Speaker 1: I feel like he's been overlooked a little bit, maybe

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Speaker 1: a forgotten man. And maybe it's because of that fear

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Speaker 1: of Justin Herbert coming to take over that job at

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Speaker 1: some point. But I mean, let's not forget like the

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Speaker 1: last time he was a full time starter in Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: Forget what happened in Cleveland, but in Buffalo, Uh, he

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Speaker 1: was pretty productive quarterback and a guy that you certainly

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Speaker 1: wouldn't mind having as a streamer option. Uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: a second quarterback in two QB leagues, And I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, yeah, sort of, I guess out of sight,

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Speaker 1: out of mind for a little bit, and we just

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Speaker 1: have stopped talking about Tyrod. So let's I feel like,

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Speaker 1: let's let's bring Tyrod back into our lives. Huh, why not?

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Speaker 1: And then we can get back into the debate Tyrod Trod,

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Speaker 1: Tyrod to Rod. You know that that's a good debate

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Speaker 1: that's more fun to talk about than some of the

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Speaker 1: other things going on right now. So look, I think

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Speaker 1: Tyrod in those rushing yards. And remember I think maybe

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Speaker 1: I'm like way too much in OH line, do you

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Speaker 1: know this about me? But the Chargers OH line is

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Speaker 1: significantly improved by the way. And they also get their

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Speaker 1: tight end Hunter Henry Back, who is a pretty good

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Speaker 1: tight end so that he also does to blocking. So

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Speaker 1: it's it's a good situation. They brought in Balaga, They're

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Speaker 1: they're in. They're in much better shape from an old

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Speaker 1: aligned standpoint. And remember, if you're thinking about like the

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Speaker 1: ability to earn fantasy points, Tyrod is good for a

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Speaker 1: rushing touchdown. You know it's it's not it's it's in

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Speaker 1: his It's not like Philip Rivers where you're gonna see

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Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of mayhem and then somehow

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Speaker 1: he completes this really deep past. But it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a situation where those rush yards are gonna add up.

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Speaker 1: He's gonna and Tyrod will get in the end zone.

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Speaker 1: Like I I can't guarantee guarantee, but it's it's highly probable. Well,

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Speaker 1: let's talk a little game theory. I mean, why not,

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Speaker 1: because we've got Cynthia Freeland here with us. You have

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Speaker 1: done a ton of good stuff on NFL dot Com,

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Speaker 1: folks can go check it out over there. What is

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Speaker 1: the NFL dot com slash Freeland, I would assume is uh,

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Speaker 1: here you go. Uh. So, one of the things that

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Speaker 1: you wrote that I was really interested in. You talked

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Speaker 1: about some of the new offensive coordinators and new play

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Speaker 1: callers on different teams this year. I guess they're familiar

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Speaker 1: names in a lot of situations. Just throw your teams now. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You highlighted a few of them. I want to go

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Speaker 1: through a couple of them. But first thing I want

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Speaker 1: to ask you is, because this has been an unconventional offseason,

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Speaker 1: right guys haven't had a chance to work out on

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Speaker 1: the field together. It's been, like we saw from Hard Knocks,

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Speaker 1: it's been mostly zoom meetings and that sort of thing.

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Speaker 1: How hard will it be for these new play callers,

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Speaker 1: and you know, they're their players around them to sort

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Speaker 1: of get adjusted to one another without having that on

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Speaker 1: field time right now? Honestly, I think defenses have a

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Speaker 1: big advantage in the first four games of the season,

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Speaker 1: especially in places where there's not as much continuity. So

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Speaker 1: if you have a lot of continuity from players standpoint,

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Speaker 1: like I think Dak and the Cowboys will be Okay,

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Speaker 1: the old line Zeke, and obviously they added a wide receiver,

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Speaker 1: but they're still their main two guys are still there.

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Speaker 1: So that's gonna be less of a transition period than say,

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Speaker 1: you know, in Cincinnati right where Joe Burrow is coming

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Speaker 1: from college, and just inherently that game speed is it's

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Speaker 1: just different. It just is. So you know, ultimately, when

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Speaker 1: you look to see what is going to happen here,

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Speaker 1: the more familiarity and the more continuous pieces, the better

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Speaker 1: off you are. So you know, you're looking at what

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys right now, and you're looking at what's going

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Speaker 1: to happen there, and they already what they had the

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Speaker 1: most offensive yards on average last season, and now you

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Speaker 1: added Mike McCarthy, who's a West Coast guy. Like, this's

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Speaker 1: gonna be fun for them, but it does. It does

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Speaker 1: bode well for them that that old line and they're

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Speaker 1: running back really are all the same because then the

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Speaker 1: new passing concepts will have time to develop. And just

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Speaker 1: like we saw Dak from his first was third seasons,

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Speaker 1: Remember they rolled Deak out really smartly in the beginning.

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Speaker 1: They didn't have him do like deep outside the numbers

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Speaker 1: passes that this just wasn't part of the playbook. So

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Speaker 1: I think Mike McCarthy was tons of experience and obviously

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Speaker 1: knows how to handle good quarterbacks. I mean, somehow it's

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Speaker 1: gonna it's gonna find a way to roll it out

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Speaker 1: in a way that makes sense. So it's really like,

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Speaker 1: think about like this. You know, those like ten thousand

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Speaker 1: hours you're supposed to take doing anything. The more closer

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Speaker 1: to the ten thousand hours, that's horrible English. But whatever

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Speaker 1: I do, math Um, the closer to the ten thousand

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Speaker 1: hours that you start with, the better are off the situation.

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Speaker 1: But there further from those ten thousand hours that you are,

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Speaker 1: then it's just gonna take longer. I mean, it makes

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Speaker 1: makes plenty of sense. Uh. Certainly, let's go down to

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Speaker 1: Carolina though, because they've had a ton of turnover, obviously

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Speaker 1: a new head coach and Matt Rule cam Newton is

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Speaker 1: no longer there. Teddy Bridgewater is the quarterback, and look,

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Speaker 1: Teddy b is a great story in the sense that

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Speaker 1: this is a guy who had that horrible leg injury

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Speaker 1: just a few years ago. It is kind of working

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Speaker 1: his way back in. Uh now he's you know, he's

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Speaker 1: got his chance to be a starter once again. How

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Speaker 1: does he fit with what this new Panther's offense potentially

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Speaker 1: can be this year? You know, the interesting part about

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Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater is he's actually like a really nice piece

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Speaker 1: for what we've seen Matt Rule and Joe Brady do right.

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Speaker 1: Like so, Joe Brady obviously l s U last season.

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Speaker 1: Their offense was just ridiculous, and they have some pieces

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Speaker 1: that are not dissimilar. They have a bomb running back.

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Speaker 1: They have a number of good receivers, including one who

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Speaker 1: I think is super underrated in DJ more like people.

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Speaker 1: People don't even think about him so um so to me,

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Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be better than we think. But

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Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be strategic, right. I don't think

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Speaker 1: you're gonna see I don't think it's gonna be something

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Speaker 1: where you're asking Teddy Bridgewater to turn into Patrick Mahomes somehow, right.

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Speaker 1: I think they're gonna do these shorter passes like we saw,

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Speaker 1: like we saw in in when he took over for

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Speaker 1: Drew Brees last season for the States, do the things

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Speaker 1: that work right, like execute the offense, get these games,

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Speaker 1: just keep the first downs coming, and it adds up.

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Speaker 1: It may not be sexy for fantasy purposes, but I

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Speaker 1: think it's going to be more efficient and effective than

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Speaker 1: people give it credit for. And obviously with Christian McCaffrey,

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Speaker 1: who plays like all the snaps, was inc of the

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Speaker 1: snaps last season and like should probably be the touch

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Speaker 1: leader in the NFL and is very deservedly. So you're

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Speaker 1: number one overall picking any sort of fantasy but but

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Speaker 1: it but it comes down to this, like Teddy Bridgewater's

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Speaker 1: ability to you know, with with Christian McCaffrey, their play

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Speaker 1: action will work. And you know what Joe Brady did

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Speaker 1: a lot of and we saw a lot of success

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Speaker 1: at LSU with play actions. So they have the continuous

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Speaker 1: pieces and their online is good. It's not it's not

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Speaker 1: the best old line, but it's a good old line

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Speaker 1: and ultimately that will be able to create success. So

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Speaker 1: you could probably there probably will be a game or

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Speaker 1: two where Teddy Bridgewater is going to get Maybe it's

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Speaker 1: more like he'll get the receivers the amount of passes

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Speaker 1: you need to make your receiver worthwhile. But you know,

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Speaker 1: it's it's it's not I'm not drafting Teddy Bridgewater, but

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Speaker 1: I think he fits really well for what's probably going

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Speaker 1: to happen based on what we've seen Joe Brady and

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Speaker 1: mount Will do in the past. Yeah, and I think

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Speaker 1: I think as you talk about that, right, like, you're right,

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Speaker 1: I don't think anybody's really drafting Teddy b you know,

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Speaker 1: outside of two quarterback leads perhaps, But the way the

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Speaker 1: way this offense is going to work, I mean, they

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Speaker 1: bring in Robby Anderson, who I think it's sort of

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Speaker 1: an odd fit, but he is that guy to sort

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Speaker 1: of clear out a lot of the underneath stuff, which

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Speaker 1: to me works well for DJ Moore, it works well

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Speaker 1: potentially for Curtis Samuel, who I thought was sort of

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Speaker 1: miscast as a deep threat in that offense last year.

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Speaker 1: If you can totally totally yeah, if he runs those

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Speaker 1: those intermediate routes, I think Curtis saying it was a

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Speaker 1: lot more productive this year. Uh, you know, we know,

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Speaker 1: as you said, Christian McCaffrey is going to be fine.

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Speaker 1: He's going to get I feel like the only time

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Speaker 1: he wasn't on the field is because he had to,

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Speaker 1: like you know, use the restroom or something, and so

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Speaker 1: he play off or something. Gatoring real quick, gotta take

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Speaker 1: a little while, just get a sip, of water or

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Speaker 1: something that was so he missed the play that he

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Speaker 1: would come right back. So I do think you're right.

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Speaker 1: I think Bridgewater is going to be a better quarterback

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Speaker 1: in actual football than in fantasy football. But I'm sort

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Speaker 1: of hoping that after you know, after the quarterback play

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Speaker 1: we saw in Carolina last year, that he sort of

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Speaker 1: injects some life into a bunch of guys that that

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Speaker 1: really had some struggles last year. That's all I can think.

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Speaker 1: And look, he's gonna be asked to do a lot

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Speaker 1: because the teams that he's playing, I mean, the NFC

401
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Speaker 1: South is a lot and they're going to be Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they're they're gonna be They're gonna be asked us and

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Speaker 1: it could be one of those situations where you get

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Speaker 1: those unfortunate you know, you're getting good fantasy scores kind

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Speaker 1: of at the last minute because he's passing for a

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Speaker 1: lot of attempts at the end. So this is going

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Speaker 1: to be this division is full of passing and it's

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Speaker 1: going to be really interesting to watch. But you know,

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Speaker 1: like you said, better better in real life quarterback than

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Speaker 1: in fantasy? Do uh in Cleveland, Kevin do for Baker Mayfield?

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Speaker 1: What Freddy Kitchens couldn't. Yes, I think Kevin Saberski, I

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Speaker 1: think I said, I mean, look, I gotta take a stand, right.

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Speaker 1: Obviously nobody knows for sure, but um, but I think yes,

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Speaker 1: because you know, when you look at what Baker Mayfield

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Speaker 1: is really, you know, it's it's it's like anything else.

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Speaker 1: When you graduate college, what do you have experience in

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Speaker 1: you know, like if you if you're if you've done

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Speaker 1: a bunch of internships, then you're probably a little bit

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Speaker 1: better off. And now Baker Mayfield has seen game speed,

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Speaker 1: he knows what's going on. He's great with play action.

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Speaker 1: He can figure out like last season he was under

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Speaker 1: pressure all the time. That oh line was garbage and

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Speaker 1: the situation didn't work out. The receivers were not open.

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Speaker 1: It's not like he was passing to wide open guys

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Speaker 1: like some of the other quarterbacks we've seen have been

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Speaker 1: able to. So I think the way that Kevin stefanskie

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Speaker 1: I didn't and and I'm not being mean here, but like,

428
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,440
Speaker 1: I don't think Kirk Cousins is an exceptionally special quarterback.

429
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:10,440
Speaker 1: I think he's better than average. But I think with

430
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:14,200
Speaker 1: Kevin Stefanski creating the play action situation in Dalvin Cook

431
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:17,240
Speaker 1: being there. Then we saw how Kirk Cousins had fourteen

432
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:20,639
Speaker 1: touchdowns using play action, which which led the NFL. So

433
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,159
Speaker 1: any of the second highest passer rating using play actions.

434
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,399
Speaker 1: So with Nick Chup with this, with these running backs

435
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,800
Speaker 1: and and this oh line and those receivers, with Kevin

436
00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 1: Stefanskie's mind Baker Mayfield, I'm I'm in on Baker Mayfield

437
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:36,200
Speaker 1: this year, and I think he's crazy, but like I

438
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 1: I'm in, he's very dangerous. I mean, like I think

439
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 1: I think he might have been one year too soon

440
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 1: on Baker Mayfield, and right now he's essentially free when

441
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 1: it comes to fantasy drafts. I mean the pieces, as

442
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,400
Speaker 1: you mentioned, the pieces are there, so that's not an excuse.

443
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,200
Speaker 1: I think it's just about getting a play caller that

444
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:54,879
Speaker 1: he can feel comfortable with. And I hope you're right.

445
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 1: I do hope that Kevin Stefanski is that guy to

446
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 1: sort of unlock him because a lot of us were

447
00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 1: re be high on Baker Mayfield last year and a

448
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 1: lot of us got burned. And I think a lot

449
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:07,200
Speaker 1: of people a gun shy after I'm not I've now

450
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:11,240
Speaker 1: given away my two like quarterbacks like I like some time.

451
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 1: I like me some Tyrout, I like me some Baker Mayfield.

452
00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,439
Speaker 1: I have bigger Mayfield totally draft well, he's like, I

453
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:19,119
Speaker 1: think quarterback eight or something for me. Like I'm in,

454
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:23,159
Speaker 1: I'm all in, alright, alright, cool, um, Now when we

455
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 1: draft against each other, you're gonna use that against sweet

456
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:28,199
Speaker 1: I'm gonna let it. I'm gonna leave it out there.

457
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:29,879
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna, you know, I'll let it ride a

458
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:31,879
Speaker 1: little bit. I have my own quarterback guys, and I

459
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:33,880
Speaker 1: think I've mentioned on like other episodes of this show.

460
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,960
Speaker 1: So it's fine. I'm taking copious notes, but I'm just like,

461
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:38,879
Speaker 1: usually it's more of an advantage for me. Right. So

462
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 1: one of those, one of those quarterbacks that I've been

463
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:44,239
Speaker 1: in on is Daniel Jones in New York. He's now

464
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:46,760
Speaker 1: got Jason Garrett helping him out there. What what does

465
00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,439
Speaker 1: that mean? Look, you can NodD Jason Garrett for his

466
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,560
Speaker 1: head coaching, especially now that near the end there in Dallas.

467
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people agree that though he

468
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,120
Speaker 1: is a good offensive mine, what does he mean now

469
00:21:57,160 --> 00:22:01,560
Speaker 1: for this big Blue offense? Look, first of all, you

470
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 1: were right about Daniel Jones last season. You saw good results,

471
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 1: especially when he was able to not be under pressure.

472
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:08,879
Speaker 1: Give these guys a little bit of a chance to

473
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 1: develop as rookies. When you saw Daniel Jones was awesome,

474
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 1: his top three passer rating all the like, great situation

475
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,439
Speaker 1: when he was able to not be under pressure last season.

476
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,479
Speaker 1: And Jason Garrett, just like I talked about Dak before,

477
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,919
Speaker 1: Jason Garrett has the rollout plan. You know, it's like

478
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 1: it's a progression. Let's go with these kind of passes

479
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 1: like get him, get him in a good flow, Let's

480
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:32,959
Speaker 1: go with these type of like then we'll add in this.

481
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 1: Then Dak Prescott, like I said, didn't throw outside the

482
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 1: numbers deep for I actually think until like week fifteen

483
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 1: or something something nuts like he didn't even tempt one.

484
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:46,160
Speaker 1: You know why they didn't have to, because he created

485
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 1: the type of game plan to really allow the offense

486
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 1: to develop. And I'm with you. My my only fear

487
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 1: about Daniel Jones is that, you know, you've got a

488
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 1: lot of rookies on that old line and unexpected rookies

489
00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 1: with Nate Solder not being there, so that's a little dicey.

490
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 1: But I think you have sake Quan still and that

491
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 1: guy's clods have gone nowhere. So it's gonna be great

492
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 1: for him in that situation. And now you get a

493
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 1: full season with Golden Tate. And as much as Golden

494
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 1: tap can be frustrating and fantasy, he does the defenses

495
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 1: have to account for him because he does. He's great

496
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,159
Speaker 1: in the slot, big slot, little slot. He's great in

497
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:22,400
Speaker 1: the slot. So yeah, yeah, I'm all in. I've I've

498
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 1: made no bones about it. I'm all in on Daniel Jones.

499
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 1: And so I'm hoping, especially if the wide receivers, if

500
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,679
Speaker 1: the pass catchers can stay healthy, I think he's he's

501
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 1: Also he's got to cut down on the turnovers. That

502
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 1: is the one thing. He just has to protect the

503
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 1: football better than he did last year. Um, before we

504
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 1: get the break, the news has come down that George

505
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 1: Kittle has gotten his extension. It was rumored, it was

506
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,920
Speaker 1: sort of long expected. It has finally happened. Uh, five years,

507
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 1: seventy five million dollars for George Kittle. He's going to

508
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,359
Speaker 1: be in San Francisco for a while. Well, look, we

509
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 1: know how good he is. I mean, there's no argument

510
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:58,120
Speaker 1: about that. I have been on record though, Cynthias saying

511
00:23:58,160 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 1: I think this is the year he takes over for

512
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey as the top tight end in fantasy football.

513
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 1: Agree or disagree with that? Totally agree for two reasons.

514
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 1: Reason number one because when you look to see I mean,

515
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 1: you've got healthy Tyreek Kill, Nicole Hardman, Sammy Watkins, They've

516
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,760
Speaker 1: got more options and you've got some question marks here

517
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,479
Speaker 1: when it comes to what's going on. Is Deebo Samuel

518
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 1: is going to be healthy? Manuel Sanders is no longer there.

519
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:24,639
Speaker 1: You're going to be relying more on the guy who's

520
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 1: get what fifteen million average year. That's receiver money. That's

521
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 1: not you know, usually the top of the market for

522
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 1: a tight end is right, but this is fifteen So

523
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 1: that shows you what their expectations are, and it shows

524
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 1: you where where they believe he fits as more of

525
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 1: kind of a hybrid, not necessarily just a guy who

526
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:46,159
Speaker 1: who's a regular tight end. And the thing that Kittle

527
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 1: doesn't it doesn't show up in fantasy, but it really

528
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 1: matters that guy blocks this pass. Pro is insane. That's

529
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 1: why those running backs can get such past run. He's

530
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 1: he's he's gonna block for you, so you get an opportunity.

531
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 1: I mean, I just think in terms of like number

532
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 1: of balls that you catch. I think he does take

533
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:09,160
Speaker 1: over because I'm not entirely sure who from their wide

534
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 1: receivers is going to step up. And we've got we've

535
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 1: got they've got some questions, and we know this is

536
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 1: kind of a run first offense. So run first Kittle

537
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,120
Speaker 1: and then the wide receivers. I think that's the flow chat.

538
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 1: We know that you folks love the advanced analytics, you

539
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 1: fantasy geeks out there, and we are trying to please.

540
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,439
Speaker 1: We aim to please here. So we are joined by

541
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 1: Nick Shook, excited to have him on the show, who

542
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 1: is doing some next gen stats over the NFL dot

543
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 1: Com writing for Around the NFL as well. And uh, Nick,

544
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 1: there is a brand new thing out there, the new

545
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 1: hotness in these analytic streets, rush yards overexpected. And you

546
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,439
Speaker 1: wrote a piece at NFL dot com about it. You

547
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 1: have the top ten running backs who sort of excelled

548
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 1: in that category. But one thanks for stopping in and

549
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 1: hanging out with us too. Just explain what rush yards

550
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:58,680
Speaker 1: overexpected is? Please. So, essentially, when we think about rush

551
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 1: yards over expectation, and we have to think about everybody

552
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: else in the field, right because the running back is

553
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 1: not gonna outrun eleven guys on his own, so you

554
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 1: had when when the ball is handed off to the

555
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 1: running back, we are taking the position, the speed, the

556
00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 1: movement everything of all the other players on the field,

557
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 1: using that tracking data to figure out, well, how many

558
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 1: yards should this running back ideally gain on this carry,

559
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:23,199
Speaker 1: and then we apply that on a per carry basis

560
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 1: over the entire season for every running back, and then

561
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 1: we take their actual yards per carry compare it to

562
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 1: their rush yards over or under expectation. That's basically we

563
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 1: get that number by that expectation that we found initially,

564
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 1: and then we get there over or under expectation, which

565
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,359
Speaker 1: is really how we figure out how effective a running

566
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:43,919
Speaker 1: back is. And so we've we've kind of built this

567
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 1: top ten and some of the guys at the top

568
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:48,680
Speaker 1: of this list shouldn't be too surprising. Derrick Henry is

569
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 1: up there at number one, Nick Chubb is up there

570
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 1: at number two. But then there's a rookie from last

571
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 1: year in Josh Jacobs from the Raiders, who I was

572
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 1: pretty surprised to see up there. Now, if you talk

573
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 1: to John gruden Hill, he'll tell you that he thinks

574
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,439
Speaker 1: that Josh Jacobs should have been the offensive rookie of

575
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 1: the year, but he was very productive and those numbers

576
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 1: showed it, even when some of your traditional metrics might

577
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 1: not show it. You know, if you look at a

578
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 1: rushing yards total, his his season total was good, no doubt.

579
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 1: But if you then take it the next step into

580
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 1: what we have now to work with, you can really understand,

581
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 1: thanks based on the circumstances surrounding these guys, just how

582
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 1: effective a guy like Josh Jacobs was, which is why

583
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be a huge pickup and fantasy

584
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 1: this year. And if we rely on these rush yards

585
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 1: over expectation per attempt, this mark of point eight one

586
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,440
Speaker 1: as you see on your screen there, I mean, I

587
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 1: think that that's going to really help separate some of

588
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 1: these running backs from their yardage totals and well, he's

589
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 1: just a product of his offense or whatever else you

590
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:45,119
Speaker 1: might think. It would be uh to really understanding that, No,

591
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 1: this guy is outperforming the circumstances around him on a

592
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 1: consistent basis, which makes him a strong pick for your

593
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,399
Speaker 1: fantasy team. I mean, so you sort of talk about

594
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:57,880
Speaker 1: what Jacob did and the guys around him, I mean

595
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 1: it feels like this is something that we can used

596
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:02,199
Speaker 1: to kind of be a predictive because it's nice to

597
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:04,399
Speaker 1: see it one year. The thing everybody wants to know

598
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:05,959
Speaker 1: is is can't he do it again? And so you're

599
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 1: saying this is this can be sort of a predictive

600
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:09,920
Speaker 1: tool year over year to sort of help, you know,

601
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 1: separate guys, right, yeah, definitely. You know. Number two on

602
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,880
Speaker 1: this listen was Nick Chubb this past season. His mark

603
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 1: from the year prior was way better. It was better

604
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 1: than anybody who's ever who we've ever tracked with these

605
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 1: numbers by a long shot. Derrick Henry was number one

606
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,640
Speaker 1: this year at one point oh five. Nick Chubb last

607
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 1: year was near one point four. If you need to

608
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 1: really compare how much of a difference it is, Derrick

609
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 1: Henry was the only guy over one this year. Nick

610
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,160
Speaker 1: Chubb was better than him by nearly three tents. I mean,

611
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 1: it's that much better. So I think that we can

612
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 1: use this to kind of, like you said, predict from

613
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 1: year to year how effective a running back might be

614
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 1: based on, you know, and some of these circumstances changes

615
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 1: we know, you know, sometimes you have personnel changes, you

616
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 1: have offensive line changes, you have offensive coordinator changes. You

617
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 1: had that all in Cleveland last year, and yet Nick

618
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 1: Chubb was still very effective. So it really does help

619
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 1: illustrate how good a running back is even with everything

620
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 1: changing around him. I know you do a lot of

621
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 1: stuff around offensive lines. Would you classify this more as

622
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: a running back stat or an offensive line stat or

623
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 1: or maybe somewhere kind of in the middle. So initially,

624
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 1: when I looked at these, I thought, Wow, this might

625
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 1: be the first time that we have something to really

626
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 1: judge how effective this offensive line is performing. But then

627
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 1: when we dug deeper into the numbers, you had teams

628
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 1: like Arizona showing up pretty high up in this list,

629
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 1: and I'm thinking, well, that's not an offensive line that

630
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 1: I would initially think of when I'm trying to name

631
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 1: a top five offensive lines. So what also really factors

632
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 1: into it is scheme. And we all think about how

633
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:37,719
Speaker 1: Click Kingsbury loves to rely on the spread. He trotted

634
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 1: out the fore wide receiver set more than anybody else

635
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 1: in the in the league last year by a wide margin,

636
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 1: and we all know what that does. That spreads the

637
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 1: field out. It allows for your running back to get

638
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 1: more room to run because there's less defenders in the box,

639
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 1: there's less guys for his offensive linemen to blocks. So

640
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: it's it helps illustrate how an offensive line is performing,

641
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 1: no doubt, but it also really shows how well they

642
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 1: fit within the scheme. And then if you combine all

643
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 1: of that together, it sets that benchmark that we then

644
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 1: judge the running back by. And you know, guys like

645
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 1: Kenyan Drake last year were really good in those situations.

646
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 1: So I think it's a tool that we can use

647
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 1: to evaluate offensive lines and maybe separate the long the

648
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 1: drawing out debate of well the running back wasn't good

649
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 1: because his offensive line was bad, when that might not

650
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 1: be the case. We can finally kind of point to, well,

651
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 1: you know what, maybe it was the running back, because

652
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 1: we did have some cases there where guys were really

653
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 1: not good even when their offensive line in their scheme

654
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 1: we're doing pretty well. Yeah, I mean you mentioned that

655
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 1: people DeVante Freeman, I know it was pretty bad. I

656
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 1: think Todd Gurley was pretty bad. Uh. Were there guys

657
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 1: that you were maybe expecting to see in the top

658
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:40,719
Speaker 1: ten that that didn't make it there? On a cut

659
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 1: or eye in that respect. One big one that I've

660
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 1: gotten a lot of responses for and Cowboys fans of

661
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 1: comme at me pretty angrily thinking that I'm responsible for

662
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 1: the data? Is Ezekiel Elliott? Yeah, exactly right, That's what

663
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 1: it always is. That, Yeah, it's it's your fault. You're

664
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 1: in charge of the numbers, you produced them. It's all time.

665
00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 1: Uh Yeah, Zeke was running back that I expected to

666
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 1: see up there. But then if you think again, we've

667
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 1: talked about the Cowboys offensive line and how well it

668
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 1: has blocked for years, and they had a higher expectation

669
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 1: in his rushing yards over expectation just wasn't enough of

670
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 1: a difference to really land him on that list. And

671
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 1: you know, some people are gonna say, well, he's a

672
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 1: top five running back, and Zeke will get on Twitter

673
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 1: and tell you that he's a top five running back,

674
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 1: that he's running the best in the league, and that's

675
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 1: not wrong. It's just that he's dealing with a better

676
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 1: set of circumstances around him than some of the other guys.

677
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 1: And that's what we were really judging these individual running

678
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 1: backs on. Its how well are you achieving above expectation?

679
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 1: How much are you doing for your team beyond what's

680
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 1: already built for you, and and Zeke's doing a good job.

681
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: It's just you know, he's kind of got the deck

682
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 1: stacked in his favor a little bit. Uh, Cynthia, you

683
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 1: are our resident predictive analytics person here, and I know

684
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 1: that you know, you're always trying to find more data

685
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 1: to kind of help you round out. I would think

686
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 1: this has got to be a nice tool to have

687
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:53,640
Speaker 1: in the toolbox when it comes to doing projections. Now,

688
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 1: totally for me, it's like what it could have should

689
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 1: all right, Like should they have done a good job

690
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 1: like Zeke. The Zeke example is totally perfect, actually right, Like,

691
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 1: you're in a great situation, so it's gonna be hard

692
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 1: to exceed above that situation harder at least, or in

693
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 1: a crappy situation and you did a really good job

694
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 1: or you didn't. Get so the relative difference, I think

695
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,479
Speaker 1: that's where people need to like look at the difference

696
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 1: because then you can distill is it chicken or egg?

697
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 1: Is it O line or is it the running back

698
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 1: or is it both? And then as we get years

699
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 1: and years of years of this information and we get

700
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 1: a kind of an established benchmark that we're gonna find

701
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 1: this like awesome number that's gonna be like, anyone who's

702
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 1: over a point seven, they should be a top ten

703
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 1: fantasy running back something like that. So we'll be able

704
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 1: to get some really cool insights. The more like, this

705
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 1: is a brand new metric, and so you know, we

706
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 1: can only go back in the data as far as

707
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 1: we have the data to go back in. So each year,

708
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: each snap, every time it goes through, its super exciting

709
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 1: to see, you know, who's going to be kind of good.

710
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 1: And then by the way, we're to do like a

711
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 1: cascade of other different things, right, like to be able

712
00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 1: to predict the next Josh Jacobs in terms of rookies

713
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 1: because it east of the running back position, there is

714
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 1: a shorter learning curve than other positions. So it's a

715
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 1: really cool tool to be able to have an edge

716
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 1: on your friends. And also just watching the game, you

717
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 1: can be like, yeah, you know that's a that Nick Jeff,

718
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 1: he has the best historical yards of our expected running

719
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 1: Who doesn't want to talk about that at the bar

720
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 1: when we finally go back to bars. Yeah, I said,

721
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 1: when we go back to bars, it would be a

722
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 1: great bar bet. But you can positive exactly, it's gonna

723
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 1: be so much fun. Uh, Nick, I know you mean

724
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 1: you were hearing for them with us for a while.

725
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 1: You took a sabbatical from from NFL media. Now you're back,

726
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 1: which we're certainly glad to have you back. For folks

727
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 1: who don't know where can they find your work, you

728
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 1: can go to NFL dot com slash Shook, and you

729
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 1: can follow me on Twitter at the Nick Shook. And

730
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 1: it's only the because the person who has at Nick

731
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 1: Shook won't give me the handle. I've been trying for

732
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 1: like nine years and I can't get it sorright. Yeah,

733
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 1: I'm blocked at this point. It's you're blocked. You know what.

734
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 1: The best part is your chair behind you looks like

735
00:33:57,000 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 1: you have the most massive popped collar. It's Spanish. Probably

736
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 1: I probably should have wore a different colored shirt than

737
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 1: black here. I think it's I think it's great. I

738
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 1: like it. It's great. It's right like it gives you

739
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 1: popping collars. We're good. It's fantastic us. Yeah, they follow

740
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 1: him on Twitter and the Nick except no substitutes. Nick,

741
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 1: appreciate you stopping by. Look forward to read more of

742
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:28,360
Speaker 1: your stuff. Man, Take care, it's great. Appreciate always. Cynthia

743
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football we always like shiny new things, which is

744
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 1: why we're always drawn to rookies. So that leads us

745
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 1: to our segment of high upside. It is time for

746
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 1: high upside presented by Caesar's rewards. So let's talk some rookies.

747
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:44,919
Speaker 1: We all know we have our list of top five

748
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 1: rookies for twenty and fantasy football. I've got mine, Cynthia

749
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:50,760
Speaker 1: has got hers. We'll kind of do a snake draft

750
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:52,920
Speaker 1: thing here of of our top five rookies. Cynthia, I

751
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 1: will I will allow you because you are the guest

752
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 1: and it's a nice thing to do to be the

753
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:00,960
Speaker 1: number one pick here. Who are starting with with your

754
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 1: top Clyde Edwards A Laire And that's the easiest one

755
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 1: that he's just question you'll ever ask me. Look, all

756
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 1: it comes down to his opportunity, you know, Damian Williams

757
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 1: means one percent opportunity to boost for Clyde editors to

758
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:16,880
Speaker 1: Laire who has been great. And you know, I did

759
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 1: get a chance to do a little like intel on this,

760
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:21,879
Speaker 1: and I'm hearing he's really picked up the playbook well.

761
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 1: But ultimately, when it comes to running backs, the learning

762
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 1: curve is shorter anyways, and it's Sandy Reid who has

763
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:31,279
Speaker 1: called like something like ten billion plays and he knows

764
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 1: how a little chess piece like Clyde Edwards a layir works.

765
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:36,879
Speaker 1: So I don't know. I think he's overall running back

766
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:39,400
Speaker 1: ten for me, so don't some people have I think

767
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 1: it is a DP is like up to five, like

768
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 1: be careful with that. Let's go ten and keep it

769
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 1: nice and conservative. Yeah, I mean, I would feel much

770
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 1: better with him at ten than at five. But I

771
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 1: know folks have kind of gotten really excited about very bullish,

772
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 1: very Bush my my number two rookie because I'm with

773
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:58,479
Speaker 1: you on c h B number one, but my number

774
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,360
Speaker 1: two was Jonathan Taylor. Uh. And again you talk about

775
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 1: the learning curve being shorter for running backs. That is

776
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 1: certainly going to help. I know Marlon Mack had a

777
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:08,359
Speaker 1: pretty good season all things considered, last year, but the

778
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 1: Colts really went out of their way to add one

779
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 1: of the most productive runners in college football history to

780
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 1: the roster. They're going to give him opportunities, and I

781
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 1: think he's gonna be that guy that you see a

782
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 1: sort of that hammer down near the goal lines. He's

783
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 1: gonna get quite a bit of work there for Indianapolis. Uh,

784
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:25,799
Speaker 1: and I like him. He's kind of more of a

785
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 1: I think third or fourth round pick. I think maybe

786
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 1: even a little bit later. I think in a lot

787
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 1: of drafts, but I think he's going to have a

788
00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:35,399
Speaker 1: pretty big season there. So where would you go after

789
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor? So if I go strictly by like my

790
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 1: current projections, it would be Ceedee Lamb next at the

791
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 1: wide receiver position. But lately, as of yesterday, I had

792
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 1: some conversations and I'm actually thinking that wonder really boost

793
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:54,400
Speaker 1: is DeAndre Swift. And I know Carrie on Johnson is

794
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 1: there in Detroit, and I know I'm seeming like a

795
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 1: bit of a homer because I'm a line but it's not.

796
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 1: It's actually if you know anything about me, you know,

797
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 1: I like stay away from the Lions because I'm a

798
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 1: Lions fan because they didn't get the name lie Downs

799
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 1: for nothing. So for me, when you look at DeAndre

800
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:12,799
Speaker 1: Swift and what he did at Georgia last season through

801
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 1: his whole career, that is a huge piece that they're

802
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 1: missing in Detroit. And Daryl Bevil knows how to use him.

803
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 1: So when I'm talking about who they like, he was

804
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:24,080
Speaker 1: picking up the play a book who seems like they're

805
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 1: coming into camp just raring to go. It is I'm

806
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 1: hearing DeAndre Swift, so he's getting a big boost from me.

807
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 1: Multiple you know use in the past catching game, and

808
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 1: we've seen Karan Johnson have some injury history and he's

809
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 1: been great. But I think DeAndre Swift might be the

810
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:42,800
Speaker 1: running back to finally break my little lie downs curse.

811
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 1: All right, you know what, I sort of like him,

812
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,160
Speaker 1: And that's sort of debating between you know, three and four,

813
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 1: which way the three for just sliding there and take

814
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson, who I think, at least for this year

815
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 1: has the best to production. I think, you know, when

816
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 1: you talk about the the the ceilings for Fantasy wide receivers,

817
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:03,920
Speaker 1: I think you know, you look at Seedee Lamb, you

818
00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 1: look at Jerry Judy, you look at those guys. But

819
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 1: in terms of what is available there in Minnesota with

820
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 1: Stefon Diggs now in Buffalo, you know, Adam Feeland can't

821
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 1: carry this passing game alone. I think Justin Jefferson as

822
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 1: the slot guy that they're talking about there really is

823
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 1: prime to have a pretty big season. So I think

824
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 1: if you're taking a longer view, I think there's there's

825
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 1: somebody else that it maybe is a seedee Lamb and

826
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:26,839
Speaker 1: I put in that slot. But if we're just talking,

827
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 1: I'm fine with Justin Jefferson there. So I love Justin

828
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:35,800
Speaker 1: Jefferson there. I love Justin Jefferson there. Justin Jefferson in

829
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 1: my favorite siver from this class because I watched the

830
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:40,719
Speaker 1: most film with him interracted, like just personal favorite, not

831
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 1: you know the maths over here. But the other thing

832
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:46,320
Speaker 1: that people have been neglecting is, go, look when Adam

833
00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:49,359
Speaker 1: deals in the big slot, because you gotta remember, slot

834
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 1: doesn't mean one thing, right, it means there's there's not

835
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:54,959
Speaker 1: just one slot just you know. So when it comes

836
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:57,839
Speaker 1: to that, and Justin Jefferson isn't just a slot receiver. Yes,

837
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:00,040
Speaker 1: he did earn the most yards between the number, and

838
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:02,440
Speaker 1: there are a lot of slots snaps you saw at LSU,

839
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 1: but Justin Jefferson is more multiple than that. And I'm

840
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 1: a I'm a big believer in Justin Jefferson. And I

841
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 1: think that Gary Kubiak also can figure out how to

842
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:13,319
Speaker 1: use Justin Jefferson and unlock him quick. So I'm with you.

843
00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:16,239
Speaker 1: I love that pick right there. All right, Okay, so

844
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 1: then we're running out our top five. Who would you

845
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 1: put in that fifth slot? Okay, so I gotta go

846
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:23,319
Speaker 1: with Ceedee Lamb on that one then, because the thing

847
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:25,399
Speaker 1: that's interesting to talk about talking about the slot. I mean,

848
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 1: these receptions are a Marii Cooper, you go over there,

849
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 1: Michael Gal, you go over there. Uh, Ceedee lamp you run.

850
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 1: Got it? Because who's the defense going to who's the

851
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 1: defense going to stop? Right? Like they need to pick one,

852
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 1: and they're probably, at least initially, they'll probably be like, Okay, rookie,

853
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:42,239
Speaker 1: we'll we'll give him a little we'll give him a

854
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 1: little bit of extra cushion. And I think that if

855
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 1: you look to see where his resume is, his resume

856
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 1: is running those kind of West Coast Mike McCarthy like

857
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:53,319
Speaker 1: opportunities in the slot. They're coming for Doc because they

858
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 1: know Doc's gonna get paid. Let's go like, let's see

859
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:58,719
Speaker 1: what this rookie can do. And I think especially initially,

860
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 1: you know, you'll see you'll see you'll see him, you know,

861
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 1: getting used to the offense. And then this is a

862
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:07,439
Speaker 1: guy who come week five, six, you're like, uh, that's

863
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:12,240
Speaker 1: a lot of catches. Yeah, you know that that Cowboys offense.

864
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:13,799
Speaker 1: I mean that passing game I think is gonna be

865
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 1: high volume. It's gonna be wide open. And I mean

866
00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:19,279
Speaker 1: I have been a big fan of Michael Gallup, but

867
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 1: I think Ceedee Lamb where he's coming off the board

868
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 1: in fantasy drafts, has a lot of upside because of

869
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:25,920
Speaker 1: what you mentioned. I mean the fact that you know

870
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:27,799
Speaker 1: you have to pick your poison. Do you shut down

871
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:30,880
Speaker 1: to Marie Cooper? Do you shut down? Uh, Michael Gallup?

872
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:33,280
Speaker 1: Do you you still have to focus on Ezekiel Elliott.

873
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 1: There's going to be opportunity I think for Ceedee Lamb

874
00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 1: to to step up and make some plays. And I

875
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 1: think that's that's gonna be exciting. Voice have had like

876
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:43,440
Speaker 1: the like the Cowboys have had like a pretty great offseason.

877
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 1: I mean they started in a good spot and then

878
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:49,040
Speaker 1: like what signed Everson Griffin for like not a lot

879
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 1: of money yesterday. Like these are crazy, these are crazy

880
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 1: times where the you're it's a good it's a good

881
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:56,360
Speaker 1: year to be a Cowboys fan. That that the East

882
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:58,399
Speaker 1: is sometimes it doesn't seem like people want to win

883
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:00,359
Speaker 1: that division, so it seems like the cow Is might

884
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:03,080
Speaker 1: be wanting to win that one. Yeah, they seem to

885
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 1: have sort of taking control there, which you know couldn't

886
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:10,279
Speaker 1: happen to a more modest guy than Jerry Jones. Who

887
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 1: would be our number six? Who would be your number

888
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:14,680
Speaker 1: six round? I mean it's a top five, but you

889
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 1: know we need six number six finally, Jerry Judy. Uh

890
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:20,719
Speaker 1: in Denver, Um, you know, because he was looking. I

891
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 1: know he and Ceedee Lamb were sort of battling for

892
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 1: one and two when it comes to a wide receivers

893
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 1: off the board. Uh, you know at the the the

894
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:29,719
Speaker 1: actual NFL draft, and so I think, you know, there's

895
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 1: gonna be opportunity there in Denver for Jerry Judy to

896
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:33,799
Speaker 1: be a productive playmaker. So he would be the guy

897
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 1: I have just after Ceedee Lamb. So one that I'm

898
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:39,959
Speaker 1: interested in. One I'm interested in really quick before because

899
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 1: I'm like taking over here. Sorry, Um, I want to

900
00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 1: know where you have a Laviskrisnal because he's an interesting

901
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:48,360
Speaker 1: one in Jacksonville. Because that guy, when you watch what

902
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 1: he did at Colorado, he's kind of like a he's

903
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 1: kind of like a running back ish wide receiver, ish

904
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 1: mil He's not like a he's more like a Christian

905
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 1: McCaffrey in terms of how they him then then then

906
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 1: I would have imagined at least right, So I think

907
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:07,879
Speaker 1: Chenult could be that surprising guy because I think Jacksonville

908
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 1: is gonna need need some help put that way. Help. Yeah,

909
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 1: He's a guy that I have taken shots at and

910
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 1: late in a lot of drafts because I do think

911
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:20,960
Speaker 1: he's going to get opportunities. He was he was a

912
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 1: Swiss army knife in Colorado, was kind of doing a

913
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:27,160
Speaker 1: little bit of everything there. And look, I haven't been

914
00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:29,479
Speaker 1: able to completely get on board with Leonard Fournette because

915
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:31,319
Speaker 1: the way I frame it is, how can you like

916
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:33,400
Speaker 1: a running back that doesn't seem to be liked by

917
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:35,880
Speaker 1: his own team? Right? The Jaguar seemed to want to

918
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 1: be free of Leonard four Nett in any number of ways. Right,

919
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 1: they bring in Chris Thompson, they bring him, they draft

920
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 1: a mscus channel. I can't imagine that Leonard four Nett

921
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 1: is gonna catch seventy passes again this year the way

922
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:48,120
Speaker 1: he did last year. So I'm willing to take that

923
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:50,520
Speaker 1: late round shot at chennul Uh and hope that the

924
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:53,279
Speaker 1: upside takes over there. No, I'm I'm totally on board

925
00:42:53,320 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 1: with that. I'm going to can make you laugh. They don't.

926
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:02,840
Speaker 1: It doesn't seem like it. They're like you in that beard.

927
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:10,439
Speaker 1: Gotta go, Yeah, gotta that was high upside presented by

928
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:14,080
Speaker 1: Caesar's Rewards. Draft a team with NFL Fantasy this season

929
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:16,959
Speaker 1: and you could win a trip to take your league

930
00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:20,200
Speaker 1: to Season's Palace Laws Vegas for the Fantasy playoffs. Download

931
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 1: the NFL Fantasy app, draft the team, and select the

932
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:25,880
Speaker 1: trip to Caesar's Palace from among the three grand prizes

933
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:29,240
Speaker 1: you can win. By the way, we are all over

934
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:32,920
Speaker 1: your socials. If you want more fantasy football from the NFL,

935
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:35,120
Speaker 1: where you can find it. We have an Instagram account now,

936
00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:37,319
Speaker 1: like so like we're like sort of hip, like you know,

937
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:41,120
Speaker 1: I don't know that we've ever progressed quite two TikTok yet,

938
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:44,279
Speaker 1: but who knows. Maybe maybe. But you can't find a

939
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 1: sign that said on Instagram at NFL Fantasy, just like

940
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 1: you can on the Twitter handle at NFL Fantasy. Speaking

941
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 1: of our Twitter handle, dive into our fantasy mail bag,

942
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 1: got some questions answer, I have not seen these, so

943
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:01,640
Speaker 1: these are gonna be new to me just like everybody else. Yeah,

944
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:05,600
Speaker 1: all right, from b finness. Does Aaron Jones at least

945
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 1: repeat last year's performance? You are shaking your head, Cynthia.

946
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:10,600
Speaker 1: I think I agree, but I will let you explain

947
00:44:10,640 --> 00:44:14,759
Speaker 1: why you don't think he will. Nineteen touchdowns tied for

948
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 1: the NFL league is ridiculous to project to repeat, not

949
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 1: in the word at least throws me off there too.

950
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:24,279
Speaker 1: Do I think he's going to be great? Sure? Yes,

951
00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:27,920
Speaker 1: absolutely do. I think he's a top five yes on it,

952
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 1: But like, what, like, nineteen touchdowns isn't going to happen? Again?

953
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:39,880
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not saying ten can't, but nineteen I'm no, no, no,

954
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,240
Speaker 1: I agree. And here's the thing. Ten touchdowns does seem

955
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 1: realistic for Aaron Jones, right, But I mean, let's just

956
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 1: for the sake of easy man, rightlet's say he scores

957
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 1: nine touchdowns. That's ten fewer touchdowns. That's sixty fewer points.

958
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:54,520
Speaker 1: That's a huge gap between where he was and where

959
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 1: he potentially could finish. So I'm with you. I I

960
00:44:57,640 --> 00:45:00,480
Speaker 1: you know, I have sort of uh on with sort

961
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 1: of fading Aaron Jones. I feel like his draft price

962
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:06,680
Speaker 1: has come down to a more reasonable number at this point,

963
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:08,719
Speaker 1: but I just don't expect him to repeat what he did.

964
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 1: Got the book back here for you. See this book,

965
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 1: it's called valuation where they are versus versus where you

966
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,680
Speaker 1: draft them. And that's that's what it is, right. You

967
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 1: just got to pick the right the right valuation, get

968
00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 1: for the right price. Every player has fantasy value with

969
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 1: the right spot in your draft. That is the thing

970
00:45:27,200 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 1: to remember. Um, all right, let's see what's what what

971
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 1: next question do we have here? Alright? From Ethan forty four?

972
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 1: Rich rank them for PPR Alvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, and

973
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry. I'll just say quickly for me, it's it's easy.

974
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:45,879
Speaker 1: It's Kimara, It's Cook, and then it's Henry. Uh any

975
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:51,279
Speaker 1: any changes from That's it? Yeah? I mean we're thinking,

976
00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:53,400
Speaker 1: what is the most amazing to be the most amazing

977
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 1: thing about Alvin Kamara is that he has caught exactly

978
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 1: eighty one passes in each of his first three seasons.

979
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:03,040
Speaker 1: Like you couldn't plan that, right, Like you catch eighty

980
00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:06,840
Speaker 1: or passes exactly in three straight seasons? Uh? That, of

981
00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 1: all the things that he has accomplished in his short

982
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:13,239
Speaker 1: NFL career, is the most weirdly amazing thing. Can you

983
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:17,160
Speaker 1: change his number to eighty one. I don't know. Can

984
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 1: you do that and still be a running back? I

985
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:20,799
Speaker 1: feel like I don't know. I don't think so. But

986
00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 1: maybe he's really eighty one catches. Maybe he's a wide receiver, right,

987
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:27,719
Speaker 1: maybe he is? Who knows? All right, So we got

988
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 1: one one more, one more sort of question. Alright, this

989
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:34,799
Speaker 1: from frank Man four. Which two running backs out of

990
00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:38,520
Speaker 1: the four is the best for full PPR? Miles Sanders,

991
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 1: Austin Ekeler, Kenyan Drake or Josh Jacobs. Which two would

992
00:46:44,239 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 1: you like in that? Out of that grouping, I think

993
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna go a little. This is PPR

994
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:54,279
Speaker 1: full PPR, so I think Sanders has to be in there,

995
00:46:54,880 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 1: and I might actually go to Drake number two. Okay, right,

996
00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:04,440
Speaker 1: I'm definitely going to China Drake because I've been a

997
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 1: big stand of his this offseason. I'm gonna go. I'm

998
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:10,680
Speaker 1: gonna go Eckler just over Sanders there. I would put

999
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:14,920
Speaker 1: Sanders third, but look, I think Sanders is in for

1000
00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 1: a huge workload this year. They are certainly hyping him

1001
00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:20,080
Speaker 1: up in Philadelphia, and the way he finished the season

1002
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 1: last year was definitely very exciting. Um But I'm gonna yeah,

1003
00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 1: I think yeah, Andry was the last, but I think

1004
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:30,520
Speaker 1: they were. Henry is probably the one who catches the

1005
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:37,480
Speaker 1: fewest passes out of that group, so and I think, yeah, yeah,

1006
00:47:37,480 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 1: I think by the way, which by the way, uh, Josh,

1007
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw he said that he

1008
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:45,360
Speaker 1: wants to catch sixty passes, which would be great. I

1009
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 1: don't know if it happens because I don't even think

1010
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 1: the Raiders had a receiver catch sixty passes last year,

1011
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:54,080
Speaker 1: so I don't see that in his future. But man,

1012
00:47:54,239 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 1: I would love that. That would be That would be fair.

1013
00:47:57,200 --> 00:47:59,040
Speaker 1: I would love it too. It would be fun to watch.

1014
00:47:59,120 --> 00:48:00,920
Speaker 1: But I just don't think it's going to happen. And

1015
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:03,960
Speaker 1: I think Ekeler standard Andrea have a have a much

1016
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:07,080
Speaker 1: higher floor, much higher floor. But do you good ceiling

1017
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 1: is huge. It's not that I don't like Jacobs. I

1018
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:10,960
Speaker 1: just don't think. I just don't think that the you know,

1019
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:13,319
Speaker 1: I'd like to catch sixty passes doesn't mean that's even

1020
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:18,080
Speaker 1: I'm gonna catch one. I think I think we all would. Absolutely.

1021
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:21,440
Speaker 1: Synthia appreciate you stopping by. It's fun as always. We'll

1022
00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:24,760
Speaker 1: have to do this again. Sometime soon, please anytime. Happy

1023
00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 1: to be here, awesome, and we appreciate you all being

1024
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:32,600
Speaker 1: here as well. Then is it. We are done? Thank

1025
00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 1: you for hanging with the NFL Fantasy Football Show presented

1026
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:37,320
Speaker 1: by Caesar's Rewards. You know the drill, tell to friends,

1027
00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:40,760
Speaker 1: to tell to friends, rate review and remember consciousness because

1028
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:43,240
Speaker 1: she spent annoying time between naps. Take care of yourselves,

1029
00:48:43,320 --> 00:48:45,359
Speaker 1: wear a mask and we will see you next week.

1030
00:48:47,480 --> 00:49:11,759
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, b A total and all the