1 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg surveillance. That's something which by its nature 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,639 Speaker 1: kind of the forecast. If you could forecast that, it 3 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 1: wouldn't be innovation. We think that people have leapfrogued what 4 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 1: is reasonable into excessive worry. We took some major fiscal 5 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:21,800 Speaker 1: steps to extend the comedy in two thousand nine. We 6 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 1: followed up with several more, but those ended prematurely. Bloomberg 7 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 1: Surveillance your link to the world of economics, finance, and 8 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 1: investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning everyone. Michael McKee and 9 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:37,200 Speaker 1: Tom Keane from the nation's capital always say good morning 10 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 1: to all of the coast to coast Serious Sex seven 11 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 1: Channel one nineteen, Bloomberg twelve, Boston, Bloomberg eleventh three O 12 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 1: New York, in San Francisco, in the Bay area of 13 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine sixty in a particular, good morning to those 14 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 1: of you listening within the Washington Baltimore area of Bloomberg FM. 15 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 1: Let me get right to the Forks Report. We have 16 00:00:57,120 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 1: a very important guest coming up here to add to 17 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: our good conversation of the morning. The four X Brief, 18 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:06,119 Speaker 1: brought to by Interactive Brokers, winner of f X weeks 19 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:10,160 Speaker 1: two thousand fifteen Award for the best Retail four X 20 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 1: trading platform visit ib AT, I, b k R dot 21 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:16,880 Speaker 1: com slash four x dollars stronger. You see that in 22 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:21,400 Speaker 1: d X y out the point five that's really becoming elevated. 23 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 1: Not a breakout, not a breakout to a stronger dollar, 24 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 1: but nevertheless there it is weekend one four twenty one 25 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 1: euro forty five giveways a little bit, not like the end, 26 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 1: but gives way sterling back to a one forty one 27 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 1: dollar Canada showing some of that hydrocarbon lift going one 28 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:46,679 Speaker 1: thirty seven to a one thirty four seventy six in 29 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 1: the last few days. This is the interview Michael McKee 30 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 1: have waited for all. Lonnie chen is very good, He's 31 00:01:57,280 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 1: very smart. He worked with Mr Romney in the two 32 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 1: thousand twelve campaign. He has been affiliated with a small 33 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 1: start up shop Stanford Law School and went on to 34 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 1: provide valuable perspective at the Hoover Institution as well as 35 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 1: Director of Domestic Policy Studies. One M. Rubio has been 36 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:21,239 Speaker 1: wise enough to select his wisdom and Lonnie chen Uh 37 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: is with us this morning as a Rubio policy advisor. 38 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 1: Dr chen good morning. When I look at Marco Rubio 39 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 1: on Fox last night, basically sweating bullets, trying to get 40 00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 1: organized and to move forward. What will be your advice 41 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 1: to get to Michigan, to get to his Florida, and 42 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 1: to get to the convention. Well, good morning, It's very 43 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:49,519 Speaker 1: kindy to have me on, and I appreciate the kind 44 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 1: of introduction. I think that this race is just getting started, 45 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 1: and I really believe that because we're headed toward a 46 00:02:57,320 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: part of the race where all the delegates are going 47 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 1: to be selected a winner take all basis rather than 48 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:05,639 Speaker 1: a proportional basis, and ultimately, look, at the end of 49 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: the day, the race is about delicate. So you know, 50 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:11,919 Speaker 1: I think Sendor Rubio is gonna be focused on March fifteam. 51 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 1: You talked about it a little bit this morning, your 52 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: previous segment with Florida Primaris March Fifteam. You've got a 53 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 1: lot of big states that happened after March fifteen, and 54 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:23,640 Speaker 1: so you know, while obviously he's some you know, Donald 55 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 1: Trump had a good night last night, the reality is 56 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 1: that the delegate gap between Marco Rubio and Donald Trump 57 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,239 Speaker 1: is only about a hundred delegates, and so we move 58 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 1: into the next phase of the campaign. There are some 59 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 1: really big prizes, starting with Florida that we're focused on. 60 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 1: So that that, I think is the thing that people 61 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 1: need to remain focused on and to think about carefully 62 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 1: as we move forward in this race. You look at 63 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 1: the polls, the real clear average for the Poles in 64 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 1: Florida shows Trump with about a twenty point lead over 65 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 1: Marco Rubio. How do you close that gap if you're 66 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 1: twenty points behind in your home state right now? Well, 67 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 1: let me off the couple of observation. First of all, 68 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 1: Marco Rubio has done well in Florida. Obviously, He's represented 69 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 1: the state of Florida and the United States spent for 70 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 1: the last several years as a network and infrastructure that 71 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 1: the campaign building in Florida that we feel very comfortable with. 72 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:17,480 Speaker 1: The Other element of this is, you know, two weeks 73 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 1: in politics is an eternity, and if you look just 74 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:23,479 Speaker 1: at what happened the last couple of days with Senator 75 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 1: Review Billy aggressively drawing that contrast with Donald Trump, he 76 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 1: was able to have some particularly late deciders last night. 77 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:37,159 Speaker 1: We feel that as the real Donald Trump continues to 78 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 1: be exposed here over the next couple of weeks, that 79 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:43,039 Speaker 1: people are going to be looking to Senator Review as 80 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: the alternatives. And so what we plan to do over 81 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:48,800 Speaker 1: the next couple of weeks is to very aggressively contrast 82 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 1: with Senator view would do as president with really the 83 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 1: lack of any policy vision, the real policy vision McDonald 84 00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: Trump is offering. So we think that contract is going 85 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:01,720 Speaker 1: to be very state up to send a rido over 86 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 1: the next few weeks, leny Chen, if Mark Arubio gets 87 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 1: to Cleveland July eighteen to one, he's gonna get up 88 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 1: on the podium. And my guess is he's got to 89 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 1: speak to even people from Taiwan like yourself, with the 90 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:24,600 Speaker 1: immigration disaster that is your party. How does he keep 91 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 1: the party faithful who seems so anti immigration and yet 92 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 1: speak to your parents. Well, you know, I think there's 93 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:34,480 Speaker 1: a couple of things. You know, immigration is a very 94 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 1: challenging you see, there's no question about it, and it 95 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: he is that repeatedly. Uh, what we have to do 96 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 1: with this issue is we have to think about it 97 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 1: expense and what the Republican Party with the base and 98 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 1: what most Republicans want. I think a lot of Americans 99 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 1: want us to beyond even just Republicans if they want 100 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:55,159 Speaker 1: to feel like there's an integrity or country's borders, and 101 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 1: that is something that has to be focused on first. 102 00:05:57,560 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 1: But then beyond that, and they are all sorts of 103 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:02,040 Speaker 1: different things that have to be done first to ensure 104 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 1: that that happens. You know, whether it's ensuring that we're 105 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 1: properly avoiding visa overstays, were properly enforcing some kind of 106 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: employer verification system, those are all important predicates any discussion regarding, uh, 107 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 1: you know, what ought to be done with people who 108 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 1: are currently here as the illegal immigrants. So that is 109 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 1: something that kind of a review has said. That's that's 110 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 1: the policy side of it. There's also, frankly, a tonal 111 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: part of this discussion as well, which is does this 112 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:34,200 Speaker 1: candidate understand where America is headed and what's going to 113 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 1: be necessary to continue to grow our economy and continue 114 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:41,359 Speaker 1: to welcome people here as America has for over two centuries, 115 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 1: and that is something that's going to review has repeatedly 116 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 1: done on the campaign trail. Again, I think back to 117 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:51,479 Speaker 1: South Carolina when you saw on stage Marco review Kim Scott, 118 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:55,920 Speaker 1: Nafrican Americans Center from South Carolina, Nikki Haley, the government 119 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:58,839 Speaker 1: South Carolina, who is partially as Asian center and thought 120 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 1: of Asians then as well. Uh, you know, that's a 121 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 1: very powerful attention. I think that's something that Senator Revia 122 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 1: believes the future of the Republican Party, and that is 123 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 1: something that speaks very strongly both the people who are 124 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 1: of immigrant decided well of the people who've been in 125 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 1: America for several generations. Listening to you talk, I reminded 126 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 1: of what our friend Stan Collender, the surveillance budget maven 127 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 1: says to be often on the show. But Michael, you're 128 00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 1: talking logically there. Lonnie, you're talking logically there. Does it 129 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 1: occur to you? I mean, what do you guys talk 130 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 1: about when you sit in the in the in the 131 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 1: Privy councils with the Senator and his campaign staff in 132 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 1: terms of a campaign where people don't care what you 133 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 1: just said. They don't care if the candidates platform makes sense, 134 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: they don't care. If he's racist, they don't care. If 135 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 1: he's misogynists, he's just loud, he's angry, They're angry, and 136 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: they support him anyways. In other words, if if the 137 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 1: campaign doesn't make sense, how do you fight it? Well, 138 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: you know, it's a good question. I think what has 139 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 1: happened to date is that frankly, most people don't understand 140 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,280 Speaker 1: what the what the Donald Trump record is, that who 141 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 1: he is, and there's been some of it I'd get back. 142 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:13,360 Speaker 1: There's been some of the reasons why Donald Trump is 143 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 1: a problematic candidated would be a problematic president, whether it's 144 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 1: all the stuff around as a fraud around some university, uh, 145 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 1: you know, or his usually we would unders to build 146 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 1: buildings and all that stuff is sort of out there 147 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 1: in the news, but it really has not been uh, 148 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:32,720 Speaker 1: sort of delivered to people in any way that is 149 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 1: get both consistent and sustained. And what we feel is 150 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 1: once people hear more about Donald Trump in a real consistent, 151 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 1: same way, not just not just that stuff and person 152 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:44,720 Speaker 1: of all out front, but also just his utter lack 153 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 1: of ideas in terms of how to enter it forward. Uh, 154 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 1: that's been a problem for the Lonnie in the minute 155 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 1: that we've got left with you very quickly, how do 156 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 1: you link your policy world to the world of raising money. 157 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:02,320 Speaker 1: It's no secret that Mr Rubio needs to raise a 158 00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 1: potload of money to get to Cleveland. How do you 159 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 1: link your world to bring it in the bacon? Well, 160 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 1: the the answer is simple, which is that we share 161 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 1: with people with Senator Rubio's vision is, and they're binding 162 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 1: into that vision. You know, they've got a lot of 163 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:19,880 Speaker 1: questions about policy, and either good questions without I don't 164 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 1: care about the economy, about foreign policy, and the answer 165 00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 1: is to share with them that vision so that they 166 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 1: understand with the Rubio would stand for, uh and and 167 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 1: and to be ready to tell them about the specific 168 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 1: plans he has, which our planned that we don't believe 169 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 1: any other candidate does. Let's leave with their Lani Chan 170 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 1: thank you so much, with the Rubio campaign and senior 171 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:44,319 Speaker 1: adviser to Mr Rubio of course very importantly, Mike moving 172 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:49,520 Speaker 1: on from Michigan. Michigan comes up in a week. It 173 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 1: is a key primary and at this point I'm just 174 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 1: looking at again the Real Clear Politics consensus average, and 175 00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:02,440 Speaker 1: Donald try up is twenty points up there as well. 176 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: Uh So, Yeah, as Lonnie says, two weeks is a 177 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 1: long time in politics. They've got a week where there's 178 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:13,840 Speaker 1: a good chance the story will be dominated by Trump 179 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:16,079 Speaker 1: winning again. We've got a three days getting to the 180 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 1: jobs report. We will do economics for you in the 181 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 1: state of the American labor economy, it's been better than 182 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 1: good recently, and maybe not as big a campaign issue 183 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 1: as some would have suggested. Weird d mackie talk about 184 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 1: a four percent unemployment rate somewhere in the vicinity, Mr Mackee. 185 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 1: Dr Mackee, rather with point seven to economics, futures negative six, 186 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:40,079 Speaker 1: down futures negative fifty. We're up to basis points in 187 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 1: the yield journey one point eight four percent West Texas 188 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: exactly thirty four dollars barrel. That's down forty cents this morning. 189 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:54,719 Speaker 1: All right, let's bring it back a bar with the 190 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 1: latest world of national headlines. Michael, Mike Tom, Thank you 191 00:10:57,360 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 1: very much. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have stretched there 192 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 1: leads after Super Tuesday wins. Trump's overall delegate account is 193 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 1: at two d eighty five. It takes one thousand, two 194 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 1: hundred thirty seven delegates to win the Republican nomination. Clinton 195 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:13,079 Speaker 1: has at least a thousand five delegates overall, and it 196 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 1: will take two thousand, three three Democratic delegates to win 197 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:20,440 Speaker 1: the party's nomination. A powerful earthquake hit off the southwestern 198 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 1: coast of Sumatra in Indonesia today. There is a concern 199 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 1: that it could trigger a tsunami. There were no immediate 200 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:29,199 Speaker 1: reports of injuries or damage. According to the U S 201 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 1: Geological Survey, the earthquake had a preliminary magnitude of seven 202 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:35,480 Speaker 1: point eight. It seems like the Anthem of the Seas 203 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 1: can't catch a break. The Real Caribbean cruise ship previously 204 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 1: battered by a major storm in the Atlantic last month. 205 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 1: As we turned to port early, cutting short another cruise, 206 00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 1: The ship docked in Bayone, New Jersey this morning. Plan 207 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 1: stops in Barbados and st Kits were skipped because of 208 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:53,080 Speaker 1: bad weather. Global News twenty four hours a day, powered 209 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 1: by our journalists. I'm Michael Barn, Like Tom Michael Barr, 210 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,840 Speaker 1: Thank you so much. Gett Bloomers Survey. It's from lentonton 211 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:08,160 Speaker 1: futures negative six to futures negative fifty two. Market Drivers 212 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 1: will be brought to you by Mercedes Benz this month 213 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 1: of Mercedes Ben's Trash State Dealers Welcome Spring with limited 214 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:15,719 Speaker 1: time offers on select models like the Sporty c L 215 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:17,839 Speaker 1: A and the Versatild G l A, each engineered in 216 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 1: price to move. Visit m v USA dot com today 217 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 1: Global Business News twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg 218 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 1: dot com. The Radio plus Mobil and on your radio. 219 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg business flash, and I'm Karen Moscow. 220 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 1: This updates brought to you by Interactive Brokers and CME Group. 221 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:39,560 Speaker 1: If you're looking for global futures contracts with low trading costs, 222 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 1: look no further. Interactive Brokers as the industry leader. Learn 223 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 1: more at Interactive Brokers dot com slash c m E Group. 224 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 1: US DOCK Index futures are lower this morning, along with 225 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 1: crude oil as investors assess a surgeon shares yesterday. That's 226 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 1: send the US NP to and almost two month high. 227 00:12:57,160 --> 00:12:59,959 Speaker 1: You check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. 228 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 1: A Bloomberg SNP E Many futures down six points now 229 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 1: e Many futures down forty eight NASDAU Many futures down ten. 230 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 1: That acts in Germany's up a tenth of upper cent. 231 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 1: That CACA in Pariss down a tenth of upper set 232 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 1: FT one hundred down four tenths per cent ten. Your 233 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:17,120 Speaker 1: treasury down seven thirty seconds. The yield one point eight 234 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 1: five percent. They yield on a two year point eight 235 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 1: five percent, And I'm ex screwed. Oils down nine tenths 236 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:24,080 Speaker 1: per cent or thirty one cents to thirty four dollars 237 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 1: nine cents of Barrel Co mex School. That three tenths 238 00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 1: percent or three dollars ten cents. That's a Bloomberg business flash. 239 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 1: Tom and Mike Karen, thank you so much. You're trying 240 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:36,360 Speaker 1: to be fair and balanced here in Washington and really 241 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 1: talked to not only both sides of the political industry, 242 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 1: but to give you a perspective chronologically as well as 243 00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 1: we go to a most historic super Tuesday yesterday. It's 244 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 1: not one that I've ever seen or Michael McKee has 245 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 1: ever seen. More athey is at Georgetown. He's executive director 246 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:58,560 Speaker 1: of their Institute of Politics and Public Service, exceptionally important position. 247 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 1: He does this off of decades of work for the 248 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 1: Democratic Party as well. Well. Wonderful day of you on 249 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 1: the show. I'm going to think of the rhetoric forward 250 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:12,559 Speaker 1: in the next fourteen days for all Democrats is to 251 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:17,080 Speaker 1: first do no harm. What's the number one thing Democrats 252 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 1: don't want to do is we go to Florida. Um. Look, 253 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:26,119 Speaker 1: I think, um, you know, the the trajectory that Democratic 254 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,440 Speaker 1: race seems pretty set. I think, barring some sort of 255 00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:33,840 Speaker 1: seismic shift in the dynamic. Kellary Clinton is is clearly 256 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 1: on her way to the nomination, and I think Bernie 257 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 1: Sanders has done a lot to help make her stronger candidate, 258 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 1: helps shape the debate, but I don't think the numbers 259 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 1: are going to be there for him. So what Democrats, 260 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 1: I think need to do is actually keep their foot 261 00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 1: on the gas. I think Democrats need to ensure that 262 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 1: while the side show on the Republican side continues to 263 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 1: play out, that they're putting their their best foot forward 264 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 1: and making the case directly to a general election electorate 265 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 1: about what it is they are collectively are going to 266 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 1: be awesome. So what they don't what they don't want 267 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:17,000 Speaker 1: to do, MO is the lull before the convention. That's 268 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 1: a danger point, isn't it. Right? Then that's and then 269 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:22,000 Speaker 1: that's exactly my point, right, keep your foot on the gap, 270 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 1: keep out there, stay out there, stay out there making 271 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 1: the case. You know, I have a lot of friends, 272 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: former colleagues of mine the Democratic Party, who are just 273 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 1: sitting there gleeful and laughing about this Donald Trump phenomenon, 274 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 1: and I keep reminding him it wasn't that long ago 275 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 1: the Republican operators were laughing about Donald Trump as well. 276 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 1: He's Uh, he's going to be tough to beat in 277 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 1: the general election. He's beautiful, but this isn't going to 278 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 1: be a cake walk for Democrats. So they can't they 279 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 1: can't afford to take break now, They've got to continue 280 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 1: to make the case. In my Cleveland one week before 281 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 1: Philadelphia the conventions scheduling, Joy, How how do you address 282 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 1: as part of the campaign Donald Trump from the Democratic side, 283 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 1: what do you say when you're campaigning against somebody who 284 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 1: is who's campaigning on the politics of anger and not 285 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 1: necessarily the politics of a particular policy. Yeah, Look, this 286 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 1: is tough, right. We're in uncharted territory here. I mean, 287 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: every single rule of politics that everyone thought they knew 288 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 1: has been thrown out the window here, and this guy 289 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 1: has keeps winning and overperforming, saying things that would probably 290 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 1: destroy any other candidates in American history. Um. I think 291 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:42,160 Speaker 1: there's two things, and you're you're starting to hear Hillary 292 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 1: Clinton do it. You're starting to hear more and more 293 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 1: Democrats do it. Number one, Um, I think people are angry, 294 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 1: but I think one of the things that they're angry 295 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 1: about is the divisiveness coming out of Washington. I think 296 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 1: they are a little uh, a little frustrated by the 297 00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 1: fact that people are are painting of Americans, groups of 298 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:04,679 Speaker 1: Americans against one another. Donald Trump feeds into that. He 299 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: thrives on that, and so the ability for Democrats continue 300 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:11,119 Speaker 1: to make that case. I think it's gonna be important. 301 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:12,879 Speaker 1: But the second thing, and I think this is actually 302 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:16,880 Speaker 1: even more important um politically. I think the fundamental question 303 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 1: Americans are asking these days is who's got my back? 304 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,760 Speaker 1: Who's looking out for me? We don't live on versus 305 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:25,720 Speaker 1: right paradigm anymore, that we live on an up versus 306 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 1: down paradigm, because most Americans are walking around thinking, you 307 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:30,439 Speaker 1: know what, I played by the rules, I do everything 308 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:32,919 Speaker 1: I'm supposed to do, and I just can't get ahead. 309 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 1: The system is rigged against me, that people above me 310 00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 1: are getting all the breaks, that people below me are 311 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:41,360 Speaker 1: getting all the hand downs. Who's looking out for me? 312 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: And I think Democrats need to make the case number one, 313 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 1: why they are, why Hillary Clinton is and number two 314 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:52,160 Speaker 1: begin to make the case that Donald Trump has never 315 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:55,719 Speaker 1: looked out for anybody in his life except for himself. 316 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:58,879 Speaker 1: Marcar Rubio danced around this a little bit during the 317 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:01,159 Speaker 1: last debate when he went of going after Trump on 318 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 1: Trump Universe, Trump you and things like that. But it 319 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:06,920 Speaker 1: didn't stick. And I think that's that's where the race 320 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 1: is going to go into finding who Donald Trump really is. 321 00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 1: What happens, and we've only got a bit of minute 322 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 1: left when he starts to define her, how does she 323 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:19,920 Speaker 1: respond when he brings up her husband's sex scandal, when 324 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:22,880 Speaker 1: he brings up her Goldman Sachs speeches and that sort 325 00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:26,000 Speaker 1: of thing, how does she respond to that? You know, 326 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 1: it'll be interesting to see on the On the first point, 327 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:32,720 Speaker 1: you know, I man, I think that just rallies people 328 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:35,560 Speaker 1: behind her. I don't think, um, Donald Trump is going 329 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:37,920 Speaker 1: to get a lot of traction on that. But when 330 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: it comes to things like the Goldman Sachs speeches, I think, 331 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 1: you know a level of transparency and I think again 332 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 1: drawing a contract, Hilary Quins is going to go out 333 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 1: there and make a case that her record, her history 334 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:53,360 Speaker 1: has been one of champion of as being a champion 335 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:57,080 Speaker 1: for those who need a champion, um, whereas Donald Trump 336 00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:01,120 Speaker 1: has been a champion for himself, sometimes at the expense 337 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 1: of those others. That's what I think she's got to 338 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 1: go and continue to make that contrast. That may be 339 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 1: the only way to hate this guy. Well, thank you 340 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 1: so much for being with us today. We look forward 341 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:13,160 Speaker 1: to speaking to you many more times as we moved 342 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 1: through UH this original political process. Small ad is with Georgetown, 343 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,880 Speaker 1: their Institute of Politics and Public Service, joining us today, 344 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:25,480 Speaker 1: of course, working with a number of Democrat Party campaigns 345 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:31,720 Speaker 1: over the years. UH. Joining us next Kevin Hasset to 346 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 1: We're in search of the Republican establishment. We called it 347 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 1: in Kevin Hassett of a EY to help guide us 348 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 1: towards his Republican and stat establishment. If it's out there 349 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:43,560 Speaker 1: as well. I'm really not sure. What I am sure 350 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:47,160 Speaker 1: of is Job's Day. On Friday, Bill Gross will join us, 351 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:50,159 Speaker 1: lining up a series of good guests as well to 352 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:53,960 Speaker 1: give you perspective on the American labor economy. Futures negative seven, 353 00:19:54,000 --> 00:20:00,080 Speaker 1: Dow Futures negative Coast to Coast and FM Wanhington in Baltimore. 354 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:07,480 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg surveillance. We're cutting it down to the 355 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 1: opening bell, brought to you by the jeep Grand Cherokee, 356 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:12,199 Speaker 1: the most awarded suv ever. The Grand Cherokee continues to 357 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,240 Speaker 1: raise the bar with its luminous, luxurious interior and legendary 358 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 1: four by four capability Drive one at your local jeep dealer. 359 00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 1: Today broadcasting live to New York Gloomberg eleventh, Rio to Washington, 360 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:32,679 Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg dwell on to San Francisco, 361 00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:36,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine to the Country series at SAM General one 362 00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:40,120 Speaker 1: ninety and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus Appen 363 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Thank good morning. 364 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 1: I'm Karen Moscow along with Tom Keene and Michael McKee 365 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,639 Speaker 1: and the opening Dell brought to you by SEI Imaginement. 366 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 1: Cognitive computing shapes the experience you create for your investors. 367 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 1: See how I see as global operating platform can be 368 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,560 Speaker 1: your catalyst for business intelligence and see I see dot 369 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 1: com slash Imagine. Stocks lower at the open. The S 370 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,280 Speaker 1: and P five hundred down a quarter percent or about 371 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:09,720 Speaker 1: five points, to nineteen seventy three down, Jones Industrial Average 372 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 1: down three tens per cent or fifty points to sixteen thousand, 373 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 1: eight hundred fourteen, and the Nasdaq is down two tens 374 00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: percent or eight points, to forty six eighty one. The 375 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:20,920 Speaker 1: Tenure Treasury down eleven thirty seconds, the yield one point 376 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 1: eight six percent yield on the two year point eight 377 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:26,600 Speaker 1: five percent nimax screwed oil down one point seven percent, 378 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:28,760 Speaker 1: or fifty eight cents to thirty three eighty one a 379 00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:31,919 Speaker 1: barrel comas gold up six tenths percent, or seven dollars 380 00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 1: twenty cents to twelve thirty eight an ounce. The euro 381 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 1: a dollar oh eight four one, the en one four 382 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:41,920 Speaker 1: teen point one one. Tom and Mike canon Basco, thank 383 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,800 Speaker 1: you very much. The joining style is an old friend, 384 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 1: Kevin Hassett, who is Chair in American Politics and Culture 385 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:53,880 Speaker 1: at the American Enterprise Institute, Director of Economic Policy Studies there. 386 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:55,840 Speaker 1: And this is a man who has long and deep 387 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 1: ties to both economics and Republicans. He worked at the 388 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,879 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve, He was a professor of economics and finance 389 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 1: at Columbia University, worked in the George H. W. Bush 390 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:09,920 Speaker 1: and Bill Clinton administrations, and also has advised presidential candidates, 391 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:16,480 Speaker 1: including Senator John McCain. Kevin, let me be broad here, 392 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,959 Speaker 1: given that we aren't quite sure who's going to end 393 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,360 Speaker 1: up as a Republican nominee. But since there is such 394 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:27,359 Speaker 1: a diversion, a divergence of opinions about policy, what should 395 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 1: the Republican economic policy be. If you were advising a 396 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 1: candidate this time around, what would you say the economic 397 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:38,920 Speaker 1: policy should be for the party? You know, I'm just 398 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,359 Speaker 1: an economist and and and hi, guys, it's great to 399 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 1: be back. I'm just an economist, and so I can 400 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,960 Speaker 1: think about what he's going to help the economy. Uh. 401 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:50,720 Speaker 1: And it's certainly not going to be reduced uh legal 402 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 1: immigration and restrictions on trade, the kind of things that 403 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,720 Speaker 1: Mr Trump is proposing. But you know, we have to 404 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 1: stick late examty that that you know, economists may or 405 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,119 Speaker 1: may not know what disappealing to voters right now. I 406 00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:09,840 Speaker 1: think that what Trump has done is he's noticed I 407 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:14,720 Speaker 1: think accurately that Uh, we've had this sort of weird 408 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,960 Speaker 1: constellation of negative effects of trade in over the last 409 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,640 Speaker 1: decade in the U S. Where competition from developing countries 410 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,600 Speaker 1: has led a lot of people who lose their jobs 411 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:30,120 Speaker 1: and sort of the traditional blue collar areas like manufacturing. Uh. 412 00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,120 Speaker 1: Normally in a well functioning economy, those people move into 413 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,919 Speaker 1: the service sector. UH. And then in the service sector 414 00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 1: they you know, they can even get the high salaries 415 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,879 Speaker 1: if you knows are making money else I mean, okay, 416 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 1: but but in the service sector, there's been an enormous 417 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,480 Speaker 1: amount of competition from illegal immigrants, which is driven down 418 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,120 Speaker 1: the wage there and so and so its subsetce uh. 419 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,800 Speaker 1: You know, my friend Ed Connor talks a lot about 420 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 1: this also scholared Ai in subsets. Then there's a double 421 00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 1: whammy for people that they feel like they lost a 422 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:01,760 Speaker 1: job because of trade and then when they were into 423 00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:04,520 Speaker 1: the service sector they're competing with illegal immigrants there and 424 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:08,440 Speaker 1: they get very upset about it. Naturally, as anyone would 425 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:12,400 Speaker 1: dispute their life is uh, you know, of separate from 426 00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:16,480 Speaker 1: a prosperous society and and and Trump has totally tapped 427 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,679 Speaker 1: into that, and I think an effective way. And so 428 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,320 Speaker 1: so the question then becomes a challenge for economists. So 429 00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 1: so so, how how do we how do we help 430 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 1: those books? Well, I think within this Kevin and and 431 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,920 Speaker 1: the reason liberals listen to you is you've got an 432 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:33,719 Speaker 1: inherently optimistic streak about the American economy. What's come up 433 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,640 Speaker 1: on the show a couple of times. And one thing 434 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:40,480 Speaker 1: I would mention, really going back to vine winek and 435 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:44,280 Speaker 1: his a Viner rather in his paper, is it's a 436 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:49,199 Speaker 1: mercantile America. And we're back to a zero sum psychology 437 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 1: of the global economy. Can the Republican Party adapt to 438 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:58,919 Speaker 1: a mercantilest economic philosophy? Well, they shouldn't because it's wrong. 439 00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,000 Speaker 1: I mean, I mean Adams misdefeated them in the seventeen hundreds. 440 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,480 Speaker 1: But but there are guys winning seven Yeah. But but Kevin, 441 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 1: their guy won seven states yesterday. I believe there's some 442 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 1: sense of zero sum world to the supporters of Mr Trump, 443 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 1: does your party need to adapt to a zero sum world? 444 00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,000 Speaker 1: I think that what you have to do is you 445 00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 1: have to give both parties. I'm sure Mrs Clinton is 446 00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 1: worried about this too, that you have to come up 447 00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 1: with solution groups that can really help people with this problem. 448 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,600 Speaker 1: And I think that that those solutions would include things 449 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:37,000 Speaker 1: like this that that historically uh in the US. Then 450 00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:40,520 Speaker 1: you if you take a typical manufacturing firm in the Midwest, 451 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,600 Speaker 1: that there would be people from all walks of life there. 452 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 1: There there would be folks who grew up in the 453 00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:49,479 Speaker 1: town and who are you have great skills and operating machines. 454 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 1: There would be you know, some person who was a 455 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 1: Harvard NBA who knows how to run a business. And 456 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 1: all these people would work together towards the prosperous enterprise 457 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 1: that would then share the wealth of the enterprise with 458 00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 1: all of the workers. Today it feels like you're taking 459 00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,919 Speaker 1: as smartest folks. You're lining them up one after the 460 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,080 Speaker 1: other at Google and Facebook and you know, out working 461 00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:13,600 Speaker 1: on software where the only people around them or other 462 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:17,160 Speaker 1: people with the know, top degrees from top universities, and 463 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,720 Speaker 1: the folks who used to be you know, in the 464 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,440 Speaker 1: same building, who with these guys are are you out 465 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,520 Speaker 1: of work because there's no more manufacturing job? Uh? And 466 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,880 Speaker 1: there they then find with their low, lower skill level 467 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,200 Speaker 1: that they're competing with lots and lots of illegal liberals. 468 00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,639 Speaker 1: So I think that that, you know, securing the border 469 00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:35,920 Speaker 1: for sure as part of it. But another thing is 470 00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 1: is to having having a big increase and immigration to 471 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:40,840 Speaker 1: the kind of people that could go back to helping 472 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 1: the manufacturing firms succeed. You know, we need a lot 473 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:48,720 Speaker 1: more engineers, so to force multiplayers. Kevin, you sound like 474 00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 1: it's two thousand five. Might jump in here, but that's 475 00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:56,600 Speaker 1: the rhetoric I witnessed on TV last night. Has nothing 476 00:26:56,640 --> 00:27:00,320 Speaker 1: to do with Mr Hasset's philosophy. Well that so I'm 477 00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 1: asking Kevin. If if you could design a candidate and 478 00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:09,360 Speaker 1: an economic plan, now, what would you include in it? Uh? 479 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:14,280 Speaker 1: Everything that has been done since the Great Recession hasn't 480 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,719 Speaker 1: brought satisfaction to the people. So we put it that way. 481 00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,160 Speaker 1: I mean, certainly, maybe kept us out of a depression, 482 00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 1: but people are unhappy. So what policies could you sell 483 00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 1: as effective? Well, I guess again the selling is something 484 00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:32,120 Speaker 1: that I'm not an expert at. But but for sure, Uh. 485 00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:34,280 Speaker 1: You know, if we want people's wages to be higher 486 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,639 Speaker 1: in the US, then there are two sustainable ways to 487 00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,199 Speaker 1: do it. One of them is to train them so 488 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:42,000 Speaker 1: that they have higher productivity. Uh. And and you know, 489 00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:44,160 Speaker 1: investing in better schools and so on is a good call. 490 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 1: And the second thing is to give them more capital 491 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:47,679 Speaker 1: to work with. You have better machines to work with 492 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:49,560 Speaker 1: your marginal products, I or you have a higher wage. 493 00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:51,959 Speaker 1: And right now, with highest corporate tax on earth, we're 494 00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,280 Speaker 1: chasing all the capital offshore. That might not be a 495 00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:56,679 Speaker 1: great populous thing. I hear you, Tom that. You know 496 00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:58,440 Speaker 1: if I'm up there saying, hey, you know what, we're 497 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,080 Speaker 1: chasing all the capital away? Uh? You know Trump did 498 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:02,560 Speaker 1: mention this. By the way, that we need to take 499 00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:04,879 Speaker 1: the trilliums back to the US, and I would make 500 00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,280 Speaker 1: the deal that would make that happen. But the bottom 501 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:10,000 Speaker 1: line is that we need to give people, you know, 502 00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,520 Speaker 1: higher product or create higher productivity if you want higher 503 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,520 Speaker 1: wages to statably. And the only way really to do 504 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:16,359 Speaker 1: that in the short term for the typical thirty five 505 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:17,879 Speaker 1: year old is to give a lot more capital to 506 00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,159 Speaker 1: work with. We need to become a tax haven, not 507 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 1: the highest tax Police letters and who is your candidate? 508 00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:26,480 Speaker 1: Who is your I'm fascinated, but other than Jack Camp, 509 00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:30,240 Speaker 1: late wonderful Jack Camp, who's your candidate? Yeah, I don't 510 00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 1: I don't have a candidate this time. In fact, i've 511 00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:36,200 Speaker 1: I've kind of just stayed out of the presidential political 512 00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:40,640 Speaker 1: game this time by choice. But but not because I 513 00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 1: don't like any of the guys, but just because I've 514 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:44,959 Speaker 1: sent five of them in it. It is time for 515 00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:47,360 Speaker 1: me to continue to work more on economic research, and 516 00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 1: so that that's what I've been doing. Uh, you know, 517 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:53,320 Speaker 1: I think that in the end, though, I think that 518 00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,520 Speaker 1: there's a circle of life in politics that everybody goes through. 519 00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:58,360 Speaker 1: I can remember a lot of my Republican friends when 520 00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:01,800 Speaker 1: President Obama won, They're thinking, I'm going to move to Canada. Right, 521 00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:03,720 Speaker 1: That's the first thing everybody says that. How many times 522 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:05,240 Speaker 1: have you guys heard someone at the party say, you know, 523 00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,240 Speaker 1: if he wins, I'm gonna move to Canada. But then 524 00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:09,680 Speaker 1: what happens is people don't move to Canada. And then 525 00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,520 Speaker 1: a year or two in the person who wins proposes 526 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:14,120 Speaker 1: something that you think is a good idea, and then 527 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 1: you help him accomplish that, and then you kind of 528 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,640 Speaker 1: move on. Right, So the fullest of time, what you 529 00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:22,840 Speaker 1: care about it? What are they say, Kevin? Five seconds 530 00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,160 Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton is elected? Where are you moving to? Yeah? 531 00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:29,240 Speaker 1: I'm staying right here in Washington, d C. Okay, Kevin 532 00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:33,280 Speaker 1: has to thank you so much for the American Enterprise Institute. Uh, 533 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg's surveillance. Let's check in with Michael by 534 00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 1: now get the latest world of national headlines. Michael, Mike, Tom, 535 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,280 Speaker 1: Thank you very much. Donald Trump says as presidential candidacy 536 00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:48,920 Speaker 1: is a movement. Trump won in seven states during Super Tuesday, 537 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 1: Ted Cruz one in three states, including his home state 538 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 1: of Texas, while Marco Rubio chalked up his first victory 539 00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:58,479 Speaker 1: of the campaign in Minnesota. Hillary Clinton also won seven 540 00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:01,520 Speaker 1: states from out senator to Bernie Sanders won four states, 541 00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:05,120 Speaker 1: including his home state. Trump's overall delegate account is at 542 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:08,400 Speaker 1: two hundred eighty five, Ted Cruz has a hundred forty nine, 543 00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:11,760 Speaker 1: and Marco Rubio has eighty two. It takes one thousand, 544 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,600 Speaker 1: two hundred thirty seven delegates to win the Republican nomination. 545 00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:18,560 Speaker 1: Clinton has at least one thousand one delegates overall, Bernie 546 00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:21,800 Speaker 1: Sanders has three hundred seventy three. It takes two thousand, 547 00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:25,680 Speaker 1: three hundred eighty three Democratic delegates to win the party's nomination. 548 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,320 Speaker 1: A powerful earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of seven point 549 00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,280 Speaker 1: nine has set in the Indian Ocean off Indonesia, about 550 00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:35,760 Speaker 1: four hundred miles off the coast of Sumatra. Robert Sanders 551 00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:38,760 Speaker 1: with the U S Geological Survey says they're not expecting 552 00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:42,080 Speaker 1: it to trigger aus eonamic. This is a very powerful earthquake. However, 553 00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 1: seven point nine in this particular area of the world 554 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:47,600 Speaker 1: is not uncommon. This is an area stricken by a 555 00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:49,720 Speaker 1: lot of large seven low eights, and this is the 556 00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 1: same area where the magnitude nine point to happened back 557 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,760 Speaker 1: in two thousand and four. Cruise in the southwestern New 558 00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:57,960 Speaker 1: York State town of Ripley are working to contain a 559 00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,280 Speaker 1: leak on an ethanol tanker that was among six team 560 00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,200 Speaker 1: cars on a freight train that derailed last night. Global 561 00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:06,720 Speaker 1: News twenty four hours a day, powered by our its journalists, 562 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:10,440 Speaker 1: Him Michael Bar, Mike Tom, Michael Bar thanks so much, 563 00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:14,840 Speaker 1: Coast to coast worldwide. From Bloomberg FM in Washington. This 564 00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:23,680 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance is brought you by the 565 00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:27,440 Speaker 1: New York Chamber of Commerce. Mining agricultural opportunities abound in Nigeria. 566 00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:31,280 Speaker 1: Learned about protective investments in Africa's most active markets. Thursday, 567 00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:34,240 Speaker 1: March third, Breakfast at eight am at twenty West Street. 568 00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:40,400 Speaker 1: Breakfast is Global Business News twenty four hours a day 569 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,320 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot Com, the Radio plus Mobile Act and 570 00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:47,480 Speaker 1: on your radio is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm 571 00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:51,000 Speaker 1: Karen Moscow. US stocks are slipping with treasuries while the 572 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:54,280 Speaker 1: dollar is strengthening after a Job's report boosted speculation that 573 00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:57,760 Speaker 1: the federal reservo race interest rates this year. Crude oil 574 00:31:57,960 --> 00:31:59,920 Speaker 1: is falling for the first time in three days. Reach 575 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,480 Speaker 1: the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the training day. On 576 00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg SNP five hundred down a tenth of upper center 577 00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:08,920 Speaker 1: two points in nineteen seventy five, Dow Jones Industrial average 578 00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:11,600 Speaker 1: down two tenths per center thirty eight points to sixteen thousand, 579 00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:13,840 Speaker 1: eight hundred twenty six. Then as to acts, down a 580 00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:16,440 Speaker 1: tenth of upper center five points to forty six eighty 581 00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:19,240 Speaker 1: four ten. Your treasury down eight thirty seconds, the yield 582 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,480 Speaker 1: one point eight five percent yield on the two year 583 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,400 Speaker 1: point eight five percent. Nim X screwed oil down one 584 00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,760 Speaker 1: percent or thirty five cents to thirty four oh five 585 00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,520 Speaker 1: of barrel comas, gold up seven tenths per cent or 586 00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:31,960 Speaker 1: eight dollar sixty cents to twelve thirty nine ten an 587 00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:34,560 Speaker 1: ounce the euro and dollar oh eight three seven the 588 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,120 Speaker 1: n one thirteen point nine six companies added more workers 589 00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:41,200 Speaker 1: than projected in February. The two hundred fourteen thousand increase 590 00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,000 Speaker 1: in employment followed a revised one hundred ninety three thousand 591 00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,880 Speaker 1: rise in the prior month, according to figures from the 592 00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:51,440 Speaker 1: ADP Research Institute. McKesson, a u S distributor of medical products, 593 00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:54,120 Speaker 1: will acquire rex All Health from its private owner for 594 00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,840 Speaker 1: two point two billion dollars to expand its presence in Canada, 595 00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:01,520 Speaker 1: and Montsanto cutting its full year profit forecast. And that's 596 00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike Karen, thanks so much, greatly, 597 00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:09,800 Speaker 1: appreciate all of you being with us today in Washington 598 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,479 Speaker 1: as we wrap up Super Tuesday and onto this Super 599 00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:16,560 Speaker 1: Wednesday Bloomberg Surveillance. This morning, we're brought to by Interactive 600 00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:21,560 Speaker 1: Brokers Trading University. Even experienced traders need to keep learning. 601 00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:26,239 Speaker 1: Traders University will get you up to speed quickly with 602 00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:30,800 Speaker 1: short videos, webinars, courses and more. Visit ib k r 603 00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:35,320 Speaker 1: B dot com slash stay ahead, a's i b k 604 00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:41,760 Speaker 1: RB dot com slash stay Ahead. David Wilson now with 605 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:44,960 Speaker 1: our equity report. Quiet market, David, But you've always got 606 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,760 Speaker 1: something going. What is it? Well? Sure, and you look 607 00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,080 Speaker 1: at the stand Port hundred. The worst performer in early 608 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:54,800 Speaker 1: trading is monts Santo. That's dock down five point three percent. 609 00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,800 Speaker 1: The world's largest seed producer cut earnings forecast for the 610 00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,920 Speaker 1: fiscal year ending in August, company saying Laura come prices 611 00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:04,800 Speaker 1: and following prices for herbside, along with weakness in the Argentine, 612 00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:08,680 Speaker 1: Paso and other currencies. You've also got Brown Foreman shares 613 00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 1: lower in early training, best known as the maker of 614 00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:14,800 Speaker 1: Jack Daniels whiskey, they cut their fiscal year earnings forecast 615 00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:18,480 Speaker 1: third quarter profit mass stannalysts average estimate the Bloomberg survey, 616 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:21,799 Speaker 1: while revenue came up short and Brown Foreman shares down 617 00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:25,160 Speaker 1: three point two percent at the moment, McKesson, as Karen 618 00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:28,680 Speaker 1: Moscow mentioned a three point one percent. The drug distributor 619 00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,239 Speaker 1: agreed to buy the Canadian pharmacy owner Rexall Health for 620 00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:34,080 Speaker 1: about two point two billion dollars in cash. McKesson sees 621 00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,480 Speaker 1: the deal adding to earnings for the fiscal year ending 622 00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,920 Speaker 1: next March. And you've got CSX up one point seven percent. 623 00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:43,480 Speaker 1: The railroad rebuffed the takeover offered by Canadian Pacific Railway 624 00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:46,680 Speaker 1: in January. That's according to the Wall Street Journal, signing 625 00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:50,800 Speaker 1: Canadian Pacific TV second Hunter Harrison. The CSX declined to comment. 626 00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:53,680 Speaker 1: Canadian Pacific has been trying since last year to buy 627 00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:57,440 Speaker 1: another U S Railroad, Norfolk Southern uh Ross Stores up 628 00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,200 Speaker 1: two point four percent. You have price retailers earn in 629 00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:03,080 Speaker 1: sales for the fiscal fourth quarterbeat estimates, and Ross raised 630 00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:06,279 Speaker 1: its quarterly dividen to thirteen and a half cents to 631 00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:09,520 Speaker 1: share the one more for you. American water Works almost 632 00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:13,160 Speaker 1: four percent utility will join the stair in Port Index 633 00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:16,239 Speaker 1: after the close of trading tomorrow. American Water where we're 634 00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,680 Speaker 1: placed call and natural gas producer Console Energy, one of 635 00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:24,600 Speaker 1: the smallest SMP five hundred companies by market value. David Wilson, 636 00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:26,879 Speaker 1: thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. This morning here 637 00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 1: from Washington and support of FM Washington, we greet all 638 00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:33,160 Speaker 1: of you around the world. We thought we would link 639 00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:37,239 Speaker 1: back economics finance investments from the political storm that we've 640 00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:39,960 Speaker 1: seen in the last forty eight hours. Of course, moving 641 00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,680 Speaker 1: on to our coverage of Michigan and Florida and the 642 00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:45,879 Speaker 1: other caucuses. Robert Sinch is w the AMers peer pot 643 00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:49,120 Speaker 1: bob let me wax philosophical. Here is I can only 644 00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:52,600 Speaker 1: do with a gentleman from Hamilton and Brown. We are 645 00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:55,680 Speaker 1: right next door to the New York Avenue Presbyterian Church, 646 00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:59,480 Speaker 1: the Church of Abraham Lincoln. He paid fifty dollars for 647 00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:02,840 Speaker 1: a few a few years ago. Here is Abraham Lincoln. 648 00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:06,560 Speaker 1: Republicans are for both the man and the dollar. But 649 00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:09,920 Speaker 1: in case of conflict, the man will come before the dollar. 650 00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,840 Speaker 1: Abraham Lincoln, They're getting his priorities straight. What does a 651 00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:22,040 Speaker 1: strong dollar mean for the interesting mercantile ism, isolation, the 652 00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:25,200 Speaker 1: oceans that our borders. What does a strong dollar mean 653 00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:29,239 Speaker 1: as the Republicans try to regroup with or without Mr 654 00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:36,239 Speaker 1: Trump to their Cleveland convention, Well, I think the you know, historically, 655 00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:39,480 Speaker 1: strong currencies are actually a sign of the strong economy, 656 00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:44,000 Speaker 1: and uh, strong currencies were something to be uh to 657 00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:47,799 Speaker 1: be relished, and weak currencies for something to fear. And 658 00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,960 Speaker 1: I think in a certain and certain context, obviously the 659 00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:54,799 Speaker 1: stronger dollar here is reflecting the fact that US economic 660 00:36:54,840 --> 00:37:00,120 Speaker 1: performance has has has improved substantially. I think the problem 661 00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:05,440 Speaker 1: um that people face politically is that with the potential 662 00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:07,400 Speaker 1: growth rate for the US a lot lower than it 663 00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:11,000 Speaker 1: used to be, productivity growth not that strong labor force 664 00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:15,160 Speaker 1: is stable at best, Um, it doesn't feel like it's 665 00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:20,480 Speaker 1: a strong economy. So globally the US looks pretty good. Internally, 666 00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:23,600 Speaker 1: there's still this feeling that the economy really hasn't recovered 667 00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:28,319 Speaker 1: from the Great Recession. What are people really thinking about 668 00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:30,520 Speaker 1: the dollar though? I I look at the d X 669 00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:35,279 Speaker 1: y index, and it's up and then it's down a 670 00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:37,880 Speaker 1: tenth of a percent, you know, every other day. It 671 00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,320 Speaker 1: really hasn't moved a whole lot from a band between 672 00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,439 Speaker 1: ninety seven and ninety nine. It hasn't gotten the ninety 673 00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:45,839 Speaker 1: nine in a while. Uh. It seems to me that 674 00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,040 Speaker 1: people have made up their minds about where we are 675 00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:52,239 Speaker 1: and they're not really moving money around. I think that's 676 00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:55,239 Speaker 1: absolutely the case. I think with with the volatility and 677 00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:58,800 Speaker 1: markets earlier this year, UM, that certainly put a freeze 678 00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:01,160 Speaker 1: on cross border cap the flows. We've talked about that 679 00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:03,920 Speaker 1: a few times in the past UM and as a result, 680 00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:07,680 Speaker 1: we haven't seen big movements and currencies UM, which again 681 00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,080 Speaker 1: suggests to me that we're not seeing these big capital 682 00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:13,359 Speaker 1: flows across borders UM as a result. So I think, 683 00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:15,520 Speaker 1: but you know what we're what we're seeing here as 684 00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:19,240 Speaker 1: a consolidation phase for the dollar. I think it's consolidated 685 00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:22,439 Speaker 1: the economic outperformance. It's consolidated the fact that the FED 686 00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,200 Speaker 1: is going to hike rates this year, but perhaps not 687 00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:28,840 Speaker 1: as much as previously expected. So I think with respect 688 00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:30,920 Speaker 1: to the dollar rat look, it really moves with the 689 00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:34,040 Speaker 1: Fed outlook. It's a review, folks, we've got d x 690 00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:36,600 Speaker 1: y we quote, we've got the obvious currency pairs with 691 00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:39,120 Speaker 1: yen weakness through the morning, in a little bit of 692 00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:42,400 Speaker 1: yen strength in the last hour. But the reality, Bob, 693 00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:46,000 Speaker 1: is there's a lot of ways to vailue the relative 694 00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:49,680 Speaker 1: value of the dollar. Is the dollar rich now or 695 00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:53,759 Speaker 1: is it cheap? Well? I think part of it is level, 696 00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:55,799 Speaker 1: and part of it is rate of change. The rate 697 00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,960 Speaker 1: of improvement of the dollar since two thousand and eleven 698 00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:02,600 Speaker 1: but just two thousand eleven lows is pretty extreme and 699 00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:07,960 Speaker 1: that creates some dislocations for companies UM and trade relationships UM. 700 00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:11,279 Speaker 1: The level of the dollar by historic standards is kind 701 00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,160 Speaker 1: of around the middle midpoint if it's long term range, 702 00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:17,279 Speaker 1: not very far from from long term averages. So so 703 00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,279 Speaker 1: I think the economy, as we've seen can adjust to this. 704 00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:23,600 Speaker 1: We're seeing the manufacturing sector look like it stabilized in 705 00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:27,279 Speaker 1: the latest I s M data UM, and so I 706 00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:30,960 Speaker 1: think the big abrupt adjustment of the dollar is behind us. 707 00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:34,560 Speaker 1: I don't think the level is particularly problematic UM and 708 00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:37,600 Speaker 1: if we see some some greater stability in the dollar, 709 00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:39,880 Speaker 1: I think this will likely fate is an issue as 710 00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:44,760 Speaker 1: we go through the year. Why are people still using 711 00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:48,600 Speaker 1: the Japanese yen as a haven given the rhetoric and 712 00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:54,040 Speaker 1: the last few weeks about albonomics failing. You know, I 713 00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:56,120 Speaker 1: think it has a lot to do with with the 714 00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:59,719 Speaker 1: lack of capital outflow from Japan. Remember, Japan lost its 715 00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:04,000 Speaker 1: current account surplus um a couple of years ago when 716 00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:06,560 Speaker 1: they suffered through the tsunami and earthquake and they had 717 00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:09,799 Speaker 1: to import a lot of a lot of oil um. 718 00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:13,200 Speaker 1: Japan has really returned to a very strong current account 719 00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:16,040 Speaker 1: surplus um a lot of that based on the lowering 720 00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:20,240 Speaker 1: of energy prices and their their import bill. As a result, 721 00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:24,520 Speaker 1: they're running a surplus with with foreign countries every month 722 00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:28,680 Speaker 1: on a current account basis. If they don't recycle that 723 00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:32,200 Speaker 1: current account, if they don't have capital outflow from Japan, 724 00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:35,279 Speaker 1: the natural tendency is for that currency to go up. 725 00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:37,400 Speaker 1: And so I think during the early part of the 726 00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:42,520 Speaker 1: year it was less I think capital money moving into Japan, 727 00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:46,960 Speaker 1: but more about capital not leaving Japan, and the natural 728 00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:50,040 Speaker 1: tendency for the currency with the current account surplus is 729 00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:53,200 Speaker 1: for it to rise. Let me ask you the question. 730 00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:55,560 Speaker 1: It drives me nuts, Bob. I'm almost rude to ask 731 00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:59,320 Speaker 1: you the question, but I will is there a linkage 732 00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:02,640 Speaker 1: between our economic performance in the politics of the moment. 733 00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:05,239 Speaker 1: I don't detect that linkage, but a lot of people 734 00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:11,200 Speaker 1: are trying to find some mystical linkage. Isn't there? You know, 735 00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:14,600 Speaker 1: the economy is certainly performing better the unemployment. I mean, 736 00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,880 Speaker 1: if you told told you know, politicians a couple of 737 00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:21,239 Speaker 1: years ago, the unemployment rate would be down under five 738 00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:24,680 Speaker 1: inflation be below two percent, you'd say, man, that is it. 739 00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:28,640 Speaker 1: That's just an outstanding economic environment. Nobody wants to run 740 00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:32,160 Speaker 1: on an outstanding economic environment right now. Everybody wants to 741 00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:35,600 Speaker 1: find what's wrong in the economy. And again I think 742 00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:38,120 Speaker 1: that has to do with with potential growth rates. It 743 00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:41,160 Speaker 1: has to do with the long term impact of globalization. 744 00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:45,200 Speaker 1: So it's a it's a very strange political economic environment 745 00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:51,319 Speaker 1: because although the numbers look good, it doesn't feel good. Bob, 746 00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:53,239 Speaker 1: Since thank you so much for the amor peer upon 747 00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:55,560 Speaker 1: a short notice today to really wrap up in a 748 00:41:55,640 --> 00:42:01,520 Speaker 1: smart way our coverage, Mike, this has been fun. Economics, finance, investment, politics, 749 00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:06,640 Speaker 1: Donnie Brook, establishment war. What else did we cover something 750 00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:11,560 Speaker 1: else in there as well? Markets? Uh? And hockey league? Yeah, 751 00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:13,960 Speaker 1: the National Hockey as a little bit of that with 752 00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:18,040 Speaker 1: the best hockey team on the planet, the Washington Capitals. 753 00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:20,960 Speaker 1: We need to thank Marty Shanker and the entire team 754 00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:23,520 Speaker 1: here at our Washington News Bureau. Megan Murphy, course she 755 00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:26,359 Speaker 1: was up in New York for this, but we thank 756 00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:29,040 Speaker 1: her as well for a great, great two days effort 757 00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:32,800 Speaker 1: with FM Washington. We'll be back in New York tomorrow 758 00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:36,600 Speaker 1: to begin to focus days on the American labor economy 759 00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:39,480 Speaker 1: with Job Today on Friday, Bill Gross, some my others 760 00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:43,600 Speaker 1: joining us at that time. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with 761 00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,360 Speaker 1: a down negative st