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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal.

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Speaker 2: Here, Independent media just played a truly massive role in

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Speaker 2: this election, and we are so excited about what that

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Speaker 2: means for the future of this show.

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Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 2: you'll access to our full shows, unedited, ad free, and

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Speaker 2: all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday.

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Speaker 1: Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal, Indeed.

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Speaker 4: We do a lot going on.

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Speaker 2: We're taking a look at the markets, fed chair at

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Speaker 2: Jaypal speaking yesterday and Marcus not too happy about what

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Speaker 2: he had to say. President Trump not too happy about

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Speaker 2: what he had to say, so we'll get into that.

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Speaker 4: We also have the very latest.

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Speaker 2: On China's moves and taking a look which is appropriate

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Speaker 2: giving given a Sager being the expectant father over here

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Speaker 2: at the way this is all going to impact New parents.

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Speaker 2: Those strollers are about to become wildly more expensive than

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Speaker 2: they already are.

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Speaker 4: We've got Richard Hanania on the show. We're going to

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Speaker 4: talk to.

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Speaker 2: Him about the very latest with Kilmar Abrago Garcia, we

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Speaker 2: had more movement on the judicial front. We also want

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Speaker 2: to talk to him about why he has turned on Trump,

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Speaker 2: voted for Trump. He has come out publicly and said

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Speaker 2: he regrets that, so we want to get into the

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Speaker 2: way that he is thinking about all of that. We've

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Speaker 2: also got myriad of Elon updates for you, Big Wall

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Speaker 2: Street Journal expose into his like breeding legion cult, whatever

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Speaker 2: you want to call it. It's very strange, So we'll

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Speaker 2: break that down for you. I might actually ask Richard

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Speaker 2: about that because I'm kind of curious his take on.

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Speaker 1: All of that.

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Speaker 4: But in addition, we've been wanting to cover the fact.

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Speaker 2: Look, DOGE has been very successful at a lot of destruction.

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Speaker 2: Social Security is completely hobbled, all sorts of agencies unable

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Speaker 2: to do their work. Even like the collecting of the tariffs.

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Speaker 2: Guys were DOGE and so they couldn't figure out the

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Speaker 2: customs duties as things were coming in. So they've been

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Speaker 2: successful at destroying things in terms of the advertised supposed

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Speaker 2: goal of cutting government spending, total and complete failure. It's

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Speaker 2: like blatantly obvious. Now there are no real public successes

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Speaker 2: they can point to, So we wanted to take a

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Speaker 2: look at DOGE and what they've been up to. We

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Speaker 2: also got some very significant and important breaking news yesterday

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Speaker 2: New York Times exposing that the Israelis were really pushing

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Speaker 2: the Trump administration to help them with a strike on

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Speaker 2: Iran's nuclear facilities.

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Speaker 4: And at the urging of A JD.

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Speaker 2: Vance, Tulci Gabbard and few others within the administration Susie

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Speaker 2: Wows in particular as well, the Trump administration decided not

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Speaker 2: to help them with that in favor of, at least

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Speaker 2: for the time being, negotiations. So what does that mean?

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Speaker 2: What's the broader picture? This also comes on the heels

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Speaker 2: of a purge of some senior staff over the Pentagon.

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Speaker 2: So there's a lot to put together there, and I'm

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Speaker 2: taking a look at how we may be entering an

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Speaker 2: even more dangerous face of Trump is in two point zero,

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Speaker 2: as his back is increasingly against the wall and his popularity.

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Speaker 4: So I'll be looking at those pieces today.

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Speaker 1: All right, We're excited for that. Thank you all to

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Speaker 1: our premium subscribers.

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Speaker 3: A lot of people signed up with our major announcement

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Speaker 3: of five days a week and more importantly, more Ryan

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Speaker 3: and Emily here on the channel and more content for

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Speaker 3: all of you as well.

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Speaker 1: As exclusives, etc.

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Speaker 3: So if you can help us out Breakingpoints dot com,

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Speaker 3: I also just to show you to the links that

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Speaker 3: we go for our premium subscribers. You might recall that

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Speaker 3: we have been complaining about the number of advertisements that

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Speaker 3: were placed on our private YouTube link which we send

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Speaker 3: out to many of our premium subscribers to be able

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Speaker 3: to watch the show ad free and uncut before that

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Speaker 3: it drops for everybody else. We reached out to YouTube

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Speaker 3: shout out to our YouTube manager Victor. He has now

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Speaker 3: intervened and we have helped to keep the show ad free.

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Speaker 3: So we can't promise one hundred percent, but it should

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Speaker 3: be dramatically less than normal for all of you who

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Speaker 3: are out there off course, we're always thinking about you

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Speaker 3: and your experience. Don't forget, though, is that there's not

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Speaker 3: even a chance of being able to watch with ads

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Speaker 3: if you're watching on locals or on Spotify, so you

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Speaker 3: have many different options that you have there, so Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot Com to be able to get access to our

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Speaker 3: premium show ad free on cut et cetera, as well

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Speaker 3: as support the channel. So with that though, let's get

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Speaker 3: to the tariffs, and as you said, the market reaction,

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Speaker 3: Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell making a number

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Speaker 3: of comments that he will not bail out the stock

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Speaker 3: market even though he believes that inflation and tariff impact

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Speaker 3: on the economy remains very precarious.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a lesson.

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Speaker 5: The level of tariff increases announced so far is significantly

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Speaker 5: larger than anticipated, and the same is likely to be

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Speaker 5: true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation

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Speaker 5: and slower growth. Despite heightened uncertainty and downside risks, the

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Speaker 5: US economy is still in a solid position. The labor

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Speaker 5: market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has come

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Speaker 5: down a great deal, but is still running a bit

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Speaker 5: above our two percent objective. Some people believe the Fed

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Speaker 5: will intervene at the stock market plumits. These are very

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Speaker 5: fundamental changes in long held in some cases policies in

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Speaker 5: the United States, and there's not any real experience. I mean,

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Speaker 5: the smooth Holly tariffs were actually not this large, and

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Speaker 5: they were ninety five years ago, so there isn't a

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Speaker 5: modern experience of how to think about.

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Speaker 1: This, not a lot of experience on how to think

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Speaker 1: about this.

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Speaker 3: But the most important answer was him saying, no, I'm

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Speaker 3: not going to bail out the stock market. Those comments

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Speaker 3: were taken quite literally by the stock market s and

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Speaker 3: P five hundred dropped about two percent yesterday. Futures as

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Speaker 3: of this morning look relatively flat, so we can continue

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Speaker 3: to see that. More importantly, though, is that Trump, it seems,

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Speaker 3: has been betting heavily on the Federal Reserve actually cutting rates,

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Speaker 3: and that is just not what the Federal Reserve chairman

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Speaker 3: is saying as of this morning. As of this morning,

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Speaker 3: as we also know, Donald Trump actually attacked the Federal Reserve,

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Speaker 3: saying the Federal Reserve Chairman Derrone pallet quote, termination cannot

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Speaker 3: come soon enough. But because of the way that terms

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Speaker 3: and appointments and all of that work, there's still a

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Speaker 3: significant amount of period before any movement on that is

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Speaker 3: even possible, as well as almost certainly some court challenges.

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Speaker 3: As they try to do there's complicated legal stuff going on,

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Speaker 3: but they're trying to set the ground to be able

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Speaker 3: to remove a Ftal Reserve chairman if they want by

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Speaker 3: challenging some long held scrutiny on that law, which could

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Speaker 3: be interesting under itself.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it relates to some of these you know,

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Speaker 2: they fired like you know, an l RB chair, some

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Speaker 2: of the in the CFPB, some of these agencies that

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Speaker 2: are supposed to have independence some distance from the executive's

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Speaker 2: wins that's being challenged in court. So that could relate

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Speaker 2: to what is going on here as well. But you know,

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Speaker 2: I mean from the perspective of the FED chair, right,

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Speaker 2: you are being put in a total bind here because

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Speaker 2: on the one hand, yeah, the terrafts are very likely

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Speaker 2: to slow growth.

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Speaker 4: In fact, I think we.

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Speaker 2: Already know the terriffs have slowed growth. You can see

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Speaker 2: it in real time, what's happening. So that would lend

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Speaker 2: its sword itself towards Okay, well, let's cut interest rates

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Speaker 2: to try to get the economy moving. On the other hand,

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Speaker 2: the terrats are inflationary, so cutting the interest rates might

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Speaker 2: help further fuel inflation. And so you know, this potential

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Speaker 2: stagflation bind really leaves the FED in a very difficult place.

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Speaker 2: And what you're our own Paul is saying is Hey,

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Speaker 2: for now, we're just holding where we are.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, And so let's go ahead and put a

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Speaker 3: two up on the screen, because there's been major movement

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Speaker 3: here in the United States in terms of how this

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Speaker 3: trade war with China is positioning. We're going to talk

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Speaker 3: next about China and about some of the consumer environment

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Speaker 3: where we're all likely to experience quite a bit of

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Speaker 3: price hikes. But it is becoming clear now that Nvidia

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Speaker 3: is the quote biggest US China bargaining chip. I previously

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Speaker 3: had flagged the story in this so I wanted to

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Speaker 3: come I see.

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Speaker 1: I want to come back.

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Speaker 3: To this is that previously jensng Wog, the CEO of Nvidia,

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Speaker 3: had paid about a million dollars to attend a mar

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Speaker 3: A Lago dinner. At that dinner, he apparently convinced either

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Speaker 3: Trump or somebody around Trump not to put export licenses

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Speaker 3: on those H twenty chips that Nvidia had developed specifically

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Speaker 3: to be liable with these export controls be able to

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Speaker 3: ship to China approxim me five point five billion dollar

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Speaker 3: market segment for Nvideo. Well, it came out overnight that

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Speaker 3: as a result of the tariffs and despite some of

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Speaker 3: the previous promises that they had made to Nvidia, the

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Speaker 3: United States would be slapping export controls on those H

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Speaker 3: twenty chips now immediately. I just woke up to the

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Speaker 3: news this morning, Crystal that jensaying not here in the

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Speaker 3: United States.

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Speaker 1: He's in China.

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Speaker 3: He actually has just met with the Chinese vice premiere

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Speaker 3: and with the CEO of Deep Seek, trying to assure

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Speaker 3: them that they all still want to do business. But

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Speaker 3: it does tell us where, you know, to the extent

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Speaker 3: that we have any real leverage over China. It's not

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Speaker 3: really about consumer imports and stuff that they necessarily need.

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Speaker 3: We're going to talk a little bit about their consumer

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Speaker 3: like the injections that they're putting in in terms of

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Speaker 3: their support. A lot of this high tech manufacturing and

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Speaker 3: design specifically is really where things are landing for what

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Speaker 3: we are trying to do with them. The question is

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Speaker 3: of course about buckling, about technology transfer and more. But

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Speaker 3: the reason why it's important also for the pressure here

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Speaker 3: in America is that sent en VideA shares sliding with

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Speaker 3: the overall pressure right now and the consumer the retail environment.

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Speaker 3: So it really does show us that while we've had

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Speaker 3: almost sixty percent reduction in overall US imports just in

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Speaker 3: the last two weeks extraordinary, genuinely extraordinary. Who nobody has

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Speaker 3: any idea how that will even show up in the

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Speaker 3: price environment. With the Federal Reserve chairman, the nvidious strategy,

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Speaker 3: the chaos and everything moving back and forth, you can

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Speaker 3: just see that markets are very they're very uncertain right now,

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Speaker 3: which is part of what you see so much of

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Speaker 3: the wild volatility happening right.

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Speaker 2: So, just to give a little bit of background here,

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Speaker 2: you guys may know some of this. So under the

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Speaker 2: Biden administration, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, she said quite

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Speaker 2: directly that the point of the export controls that the

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Speaker 2: Biden administration put on the sort of like top shelf

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Speaker 2: chips was to slow China's development technological development, and.

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Speaker 4: Perhaps it had some impact.

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Speaker 2: But deep part of what the deep Seek innovation really

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Speaker 2: proved is that they were in a lot of ways

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Speaker 2: able to either directly circumvent or innovate around that particular

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Speaker 2: export control. And again that was for sort of the

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Speaker 2: top shelf like top of the line most advanced chips

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Speaker 2: in Nvidia produced this H twenty chip which was meant,

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Speaker 2: as I mentioned, to get specifically around those export controls

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Speaker 2: to be sort of like a lower grade like Okay,

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Speaker 2: well this is in the top shelf stuff. We can

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Speaker 2: still sell this thing. And so that's why they were

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Speaker 2: doing big business in China with regard to this particular chip. Now,

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Speaker 2: China does have their own chip capacity, especially when you're

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Speaker 2: talking about this level, not the highest of the highest

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Speaker 2: level chips are. It's largely through Huawei. And are they

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Speaker 2: exactly as good as the Age twenty You know, there's

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Speaker 2: some indicators that they aren't quite as advanced as at

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Speaker 2: Age twenty chips, but they do have some of their

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Speaker 2: own domestic chip capacity. And also what we learned under

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Speaker 2: the Biden administration is that this did not hobble them

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Speaker 2: nearly as much as the Biden folks were hoping that

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Speaker 2: it was ultimately going to hobble them. So in any case,

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Speaker 2: you know, this was a big hit to in Vidia stock.

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Speaker 2: In Vidia one of those Magnificent seven, huge impact in

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Speaker 2: terms of our overall stock market. So that was part

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Speaker 2: in addition to the j. Powell comments, that was part

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Speaker 2: of what has been going on in the markets.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. So let's go ahead and then put the

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Speaker 3: next one up on the screen. So people can take

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Speaker 3: a look. You could see the quote the US and

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Speaker 3: China trade fighters quote slamming stocks, sending gold to record high.

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Speaker 3: The gold market has been absolutely insane. It's like I've

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Speaker 3: seeing a price target there of almost four thousand dollars,

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Speaker 3: which is absolutely extraordinary. But the reason why that we're

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Speaker 3: returning or starting off on this is just to show

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Speaker 3: people that Nvidia, because remember it makes up so much

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Speaker 3: of the S and P five hundred that if it's

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Speaker 3: going to be a major bargaining chip in the Trump

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Speaker 3: administration strategy, that if we're going to see stock sync

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Speaker 3: there on top of the overall global strategy that they're

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Speaker 3: putting into place, retail pressure. Just this morning, much of

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Speaker 3: the pharmaceutical tariffs are shaking out in the markets, as

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Speaker 3: well as some other regulatory action. United Healthcare stock down

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Speaker 3: by like eleven percent. Yes, I know, funny, like meme wise,

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Speaker 3: but it's actually a huge segment of the overall markets.

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Speaker 3: We have sector bisector decline in everything, which just makes

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Speaker 3: it so that there is huge pressure on the US economy.

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Speaker 3: If we do start to see mass layoffs in the

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Speaker 3: next ninety days or so, as Ryan Peterson predicted, that

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Speaker 3: will put a tremendous amount of pressure on all of

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Speaker 3: these different in terms of the regulators, on the government

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Speaker 3: and more. And the Chinese are absolutely buckling up. So

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Speaker 3: we just want to lay the groundwork for how things

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Speaker 3: look over here in America. That's the end vidia front.

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Speaker 3: There's also the dollar. This has been a major story

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Speaker 3: as well. Let's put this up there on the screen.

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Speaker 3: Quote what the weak dollar means for the global economy?

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Speaker 3: We have and this was not actually expected to see

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Speaker 3: such a dramatic decline in the dollar relative to every

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Speaker 3: other global currency. But what they point off here is

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Speaker 3: that the quote unexpected weakening of the dollar is suddenly

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Speaker 3: becoming the rest of the world's problem too, because for

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Speaker 3: foreign sellers all of these goods, cars, kognaks, Gottish tweed,

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Speaker 3: the dollar steep slide is a double whammy. It's compounding

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Speaker 3: losses caused by President Trump's import levees. So the central

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Speaker 3: banks around the world they either need to stop the

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Speaker 3: rapid strengthening of their currency, cut interest rates more aggressedly

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Speaker 3: to try and lower their overall target versus a dollar,

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Speaker 3: but that will have major macroeconomic effects in their own countries. Also,

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Speaker 3: of course, the dollar decline now means that currently has

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Speaker 3: slipped eight percent per year, which is the worst start

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Speaker 3: to the year in the indexes four decade trading history.

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Speaker 3: Just to put into a perspective how insane that is

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Speaker 3: there has been. It's not just lack of faith in

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Speaker 3: the dollar. It's really about US government and trade. And

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Speaker 3: then when imports are also being reduced, that will of

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Speaker 3: course mean that when there's a weeker dollar, it's going

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Speaker 3: to drive up the price of how much we're able

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Speaker 3: to buy and exchange globally. So this stuff has major

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Speaker 3: ramifications for reserve currency purposes for whoever is still able

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Speaker 3: to do business, you know, with importers. But then more importantly,

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Speaker 3: it can cause a global shock effect on interest rates,

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Speaker 3: where you could potentially see lower interest rates in other

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Speaker 3: countries while our stage in the federal reserve is like, oh,

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Speaker 3: I'm going to abide my time, which also has askating

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Speaker 3: effects for our comment. None of this is good, is

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Speaker 3: really what I'm trying to say.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's emblematic of a broader trend.

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Speaker 1: Just the ECB just cut rates. There you go. It's

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Speaker 1: from the European Central Bank area literally.

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Speaker 2: Part of a broader shift away from the US. I

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Speaker 2: mean that's what when you see this, when you see

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Speaker 2: the unusual market in terms of US treasuries. You know,

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Speaker 2: the US and the dollar and treasuries have always been

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Speaker 2: the safe haven no longer, and so now these sorts

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Speaker 2: of market responses with regard to you know, our currency

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Speaker 2: in particular, this is more like what you would expect

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Speaker 2: from an emerging market, like these sorts of dynamics playing out,

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Speaker 2: So you know, you don't want.

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Speaker 4: To oversell it. Right. The US is still, you.

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Speaker 2: Know, a global power, maybe not the global power, but

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Speaker 2: a global power. And you know, the dollar is going

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Speaker 2: to continue to be central. We're not dedollarizing like today.

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Speaker 2: But this shift away is probably the most significant thing

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Speaker 2: that we have seen to happen. And that also plays

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Speaker 2: into your mentioning the price of gold skyrocketing. So the

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Speaker 2: implication is instead of the flight to safety being like

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Speaker 2: US treasury bonds as it has traditionally been, instead maybe

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Speaker 2: it's things like gold.

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Speaker 1: There you go.

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Speaker 3: All of this is important, and let's get to the

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Speaker 3: next part here. This is a five please just to

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Speaker 3: show people about some things that are happening right now. Quote,

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Speaker 3: nearly nine hundred thousand fewer people went to the United

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Speaker 3: States in March, as the cross border travel continues to

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Speaker 3: go down, one of the worst year over year drops

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Speaker 3: recorded outside of the COVID nineteen crisis. A lot of

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Speaker 3: this is basically fear from a lot of incoming US visitors,

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Speaker 3: but a lot of it is Canada actually and specifically

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Speaker 3: over the trade war as retaliation for the initial trade

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Speaker 3: comments by the Trump administration. The irony, of course is

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Speaker 3: that you know, the vast majority of goods remain at

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Speaker 3: the overall zero terriff rate under the USMCA, but the

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Speaker 3: initial like shaking from the Trump administration and the fifty

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Speaker 3: first state language has made it so there's been a

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Speaker 3: precipitous decline. We are entering into summer territory, traditionally a

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Speaker 3: time where there's a lot of Canadian snowbirds who apparently

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Speaker 3: like to come down to America, and yeah, not good

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Speaker 3: if you if you run a business in northern New

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Speaker 3: York or Orlando, any of these other places. I remember

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Speaker 3: looking at some of the top Canadian destinations in America.

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Speaker 3: I think Seattle is also up there. There's a lot

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Speaker 3: of jobs and economic activity that generally rely on this,

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Speaker 3: and this just gets to my overall problem with the

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Speaker 3: Trump administration is that they both force people to experience

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Speaker 3: the consequences with none of the upside. So if you're

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Speaker 3: going to have a terrace on the Canadians and say

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Speaker 3: that ripping us off, then we should of course see

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Speaker 3: a major stimulus to the businesses which are supposedly getting

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Speaker 3: ripped off, as well as to make sure that there's

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Speaker 3: no pain for the people who do rely on it

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Speaker 3: and the after effects.

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Speaker 1: None of that is happening now.

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Speaker 3: Of course it's happening in China, which I'll get to

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Speaker 3: in a little bit, but we haven't seen that almost

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Speaker 3: you know, we're going to talk about strollers, We're going

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Speaker 3: to talk about groceries and all of these other things.

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Speaker 3: There's no like relief or PPP program that's currently being

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Speaker 3: even floated by the administration and or by the Republican Congress,

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Speaker 3: which in six months will soon pass a bill. At

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Speaker 3: that point, you could have mass layoffs and bankruptcies at

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Speaker 3: that point. You know, if we're thinking about a September passage,

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Speaker 3: good luck to a lot of summer tour operators or others. Sure,

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Speaker 3: are they the most critical part of the economy. No,

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of people pour their whole livelihood and

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Speaker 3: all their business money into this. And so that's my

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Speaker 3: major problem is even though we have the same tariff

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Speaker 3: rate as we did the day that Donald Trump basically

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Speaker 3: went into office effectively for most of the goods that

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Speaker 3: move across the Canadian border, he still has just invited

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Speaker 3: this thing with Canada and now all of these businesses

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Speaker 3: are going to stuffer the consequences and not get any

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Speaker 3: bailout or anything.

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Speaker 4: That's right, Yeah, And I mean tourism is a significant

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Speaker 4: part of the economy, especially if you're talking about Center

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Speaker 4: gd Florida, you know, California.

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Speaker 2: These are areas that rely heavily on tourism as a

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Speaker 2: really important industry for their economies. And that nine hundred

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Speaker 2: thousand number, that's just with regard to Canadian border crossings.

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Speaker 2: If you look at the number of flight bookings coming

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Speaker 2: out of Europe, I mean across the border, it's all dropped.

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Speaker 2: And it certainly has to do significantly with the terrorists

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Speaker 2: in the trade war. It also has to do with

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Speaker 2: immigration policy because you have stories like there was a

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Speaker 2: Canadian actress, Jasmine Mooney, who was held by Ice for

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Speaker 2: twelve days while she was just trying to like renew

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Speaker 2: her work visa, and there are other stories like that

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Speaker 2: of people who were trying to come and just like

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Speaker 2: visit as tourists or go speak at a lecture coming

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Speaker 2: over from Europe who are being searched and detained. And

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Speaker 2: people see those stories and like, I think I'll go

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Speaker 2: somewhere else on my vacation.

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Speaker 4: I'm good. I don't really want to risk.

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Speaker 1: All of that.

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Speaker 2: The EU has told their diplomats, you know, to bring

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Speaker 2: a burner phone instead of their normal smartphone. These are

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Speaker 2: the sorts of things that are going on, and so

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Speaker 2: it's also not good for the tourism industry, and that's

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Speaker 2: going to have another negative effect on the economy and

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Speaker 2: impact businesses certainly significantly. And we talked yesterday Emily and

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Speaker 2: I I think it was United Airlines that's already they've

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Speaker 2: put on two separate guidance, like you know, earnings guidance

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Speaker 2: based on like we don't really know what's going to

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Speaker 2: go on, and they are already cutting back flights for

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Speaker 2: the summer. Yeah, they're already cutting back flights for the

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Speaker 2: summer based on what we already know about the economic

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Speaker 2: acountlook so not good.

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Speaker 3: That is not good. It also softening economic demand. He

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Speaker 3: actually went back and was reading a little bit about

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Speaker 3: the airline industry.

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Speaker 1: Oh nine was brutal.

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Speaker 3: Nine in twenty ten were horrible years the airline industry

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Speaker 3: because of the overall fallout. They were thrown as many

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Speaker 3: incentives as they possibly could, and especially if there's a

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Speaker 3: major pullback the top ten percent of Americans, so the

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Speaker 3: people who spend the fifteen fifty percent on consumer spending.

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Speaker 3: So even if they reduced their amount of spend there,

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Speaker 3: the airlines are going to take a massive haircut because

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Speaker 3: they were making all their money. They're not making money

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Speaker 3: on economy. They were mostly making their money on this

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Speaker 3: premium economy and business class seas, which we're selling out.

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Speaker 3: So if those people stop booking or even if they

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Speaker 3: fly economy, oh my god, they're going to be devastated

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Speaker 3: in terms of their their earnings. Last thing on this

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Speaker 3: rount before we moved to China. Let's go to A

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Speaker 3: six please. This is on Albertson's. This is very very

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Speaker 3: interesting from our friend David Dan. Albertsons sent a letter

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Speaker 3: to all of its suppliers saying, quote, it is not

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Speaker 3: accepting cost increases due to teriffs, which means that the

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Speaker 3: suppliers are going to have to raise prices on Albertson's

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Speaker 3: competitors that have less market power of David Dan says, quote,

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Speaker 3: this is one way that Trump's tariffs and trench monopolizations.

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Speaker 1: Interesting point. Actually, I hadn't thought about it that way.

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Speaker 3: But what it does show you, again is if you

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Speaker 3: have a general policy, let's say here about alleviating cost

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Speaker 3: increases due to tariffs and making sure that there are

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00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:35,679
Speaker 3: government incentive programs and others to make sure that grocery

440
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,639
Speaker 3: prices across the board don't get propped up and that

441
00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:41,439
Speaker 3: these suppliers don't necessarily have to go out of business,

442
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:43,080
Speaker 3: then you don't have to have Albertsons and all these

443
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:45,960
Speaker 3: other people gaming the system. It's actually a good example too,

444
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,200
Speaker 3: what we've talked about Walmart and all these peop Yeah,

445
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:50,680
Speaker 3: they're going to survive, Okay, those Unfrankly, those are the

446
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:53,080
Speaker 3: people who are most responsible for pushing for a lot

447
00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 3: of this free trade nonsense with China, PNTR with China,

448
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:58,840
Speaker 3: and a lot of these cheap consumer goods. But their

449
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 3: market power is such that they'll make it. It's really,

450
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 3: you know, as they're pointing out here, the suppliers will well,

451
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:08,159
Speaker 3: they have the leverage over let's say smaller grocery chains

452
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:12,240
Speaker 3: or other places, and that's probably rural, you know, other

453
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:14,240
Speaker 3: areas which are not able to bargain, and so then

454
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 3: you'll see a cost increase overall.

455
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:18,200
Speaker 1: And then what happens. They're going to go bankrupt and

456
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:19,199
Speaker 1: Alberts is going to buy them.

457
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:20,640
Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, no, that's exactly right.

458
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:24,919
Speaker 2: And the overall structure, especially with it being just directed

459
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 2: by the singular person of Donald Trump, of course, makes

460
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:29,879
Speaker 2: it so the big guys are in a position to

461
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 2: get their benefits, get their car bounce, pay a million

462
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 2: dollars to go to their marra a lago dinner or whatever,

463
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 2: so that they can ride out the storm. You know,

464
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 2: I talked the other day about this woman who has

465
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 2: her baby, her busy baby mats, and so she just

466
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 2: Walmart just picked up her product for a retail for

467
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 2: someone who's you know, a producer making something to get

468
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,679
Speaker 2: it into Walmart, Like that's like the holy Grail. But

469
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 2: Walmart accepts, Okay, we will take them at this price,

470
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:00,159
Speaker 2: and that's it. She can't negotiate with them any for

471
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 2: that's done. So when you talk about now the tariff

472
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 2: is I don't know, it's like two hundred percent, and

473
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 2: he just keeps increasing it. But at a certain point,

474
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:09,359
Speaker 2: at this point, it's like it doesn't matter what the

475
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:11,920
Speaker 2: tariff is. It's high enough that for someone like the

476
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 2: busy baby lady, it's it's over. She can't bring in

477
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,200
Speaker 2: her products. But let's say that she was able to

478
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,159
Speaker 2: figure out the cash to get the tarraff and you know,

479
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 2: to pay the tariff and get her product over here.

480
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,679
Speaker 2: She's the one one hundred percent eating the cost, so

481
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 2: earning a huge loss on this product that you know,

482
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:31,160
Speaker 2: Walmart has agreed to buy it, I don't know, twenty

483
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,400
Speaker 2: five dollars or something like that, and now she's having

484
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:35,399
Speaker 2: to pay let's say, fifty dollars just to get this

485
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 2: thing over here. Like it's she is the one who's

486
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 2: going to get screwed. Walmart has all the power in

487
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 2: the relationship, and they don't care whether they have this

488
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 2: matt in their store or not. They don't care if

489
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 2: she goes under her. And that's so the small business,

490
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 2: the media business sized businesses, they are going to be

491
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 2: totally and completely screwed if this is not lifted, like immediately,

492
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 2: I mean we're talking they have months to be able

493
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:02,399
Speaker 2: to runway, to be able to make it through and

494
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 2: ride out this storm, and not much longer than that,

495
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 2: just by the nature of these businesses.

496
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:11,359
Speaker 3: Unfortunately, that's very true. Okay, let's move on to China.

497
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 3: We're gonna break some of this down. Have some fascinating

498
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 3: stuff happening geopolitically.

499
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:17,640
Speaker 1: We'll start with Jijingping.

500
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 3: As I mentioned in our last show, visiting Hanoi and Vietnam.

501
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 3: We have some video showing this, keep in mind, is

502
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 3: released by Chinese state propaganda, but.

503
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:27,880
Speaker 1: You know, it's still important. It's still a real video.

504
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 3: So let's take a look and we can put it

505
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 3: up there on the screen. You could see Ji being

506
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 3: you know, all the communist flags waving as he is

507
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 3: visiting the streets of Hanoi. This is important because Vietnam

508
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 3: is our number eight trading partner. A key part of

509
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 3: the pivot to Asia of the Obama administration and actually

510
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 3: subsequent even with the Trump tariffs, was a basically finger

511
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 3: wagging at Nike and numerous other retailers saying listen, no

512
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:56,640
Speaker 3: China anymore, you have to manufacture elsewhere. They said, Okay,

513
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 3: we'll go to Vietnam. We gave him a lot of

514
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 3: money to go to Vietnam. They built upply chains. Now,

515
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 3: I will be the first to admit that China absolutely

516
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,359
Speaker 3: took advantage of transshipping via Vietnam, and they of course,

517
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 3: you know, we're trying to gain the advantage, etc. But

518
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 3: Vietnam was a critical US trading partner. Like I said,

519
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 3: number eight, very very little behind Taiwan. That's how much

520
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 3: I'm talking about their overall effect on the US economy.

521
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 3: On top of that, Vietnam, despite the fact that we

522
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,679
Speaker 3: destroyed half of their country, has very favorable attitudes to

523
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 3: the United States. They have remembered they have beef with

524
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 3: China over the South China Sea and a few of

525
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 3: the island chains. These are not necessarily countries with super

526
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 3: close relations in the last twelve years or so, so

527
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 3: to see that it's a bit of a problem. And

528
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 3: actually even Trump has paid attention to this. Put the

529
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 3: next one, please up on the screen. Quote Trump grumbles

530
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 3: about China's lovely meeting with Vietnam, saying they are discussing

531
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 3: how to screw the United States of America. That's true,

532
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 3: That's actually true, because there's a reason that Jee went

533
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,680
Speaker 3: to Vietnam and Cambodia and is going to Malaysia next.

534
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 3: These are all areas and you know, with critical US

535
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 3: trade relationships, a lot of US textiles moved through that area.

536
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 3: We are not seeing. You know, it's not even just

537
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:12,399
Speaker 3: about good relations, don't you know. Forget crystal Vietnam was

538
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 3: one of the first countries to say okay, fine, no

539
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 3: tariffs zero and then they got nothing. They still got

540
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 3: to take Yeah, post they're good. Obviously that's been a

541
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 3: ninety day off, but you know.

542
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:23,719
Speaker 1: They're not stupid. They need to make money.

543
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:25,919
Speaker 3: And so in the interim period they're like, are we

544
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 3: really going to have a ninety day agreement?

545
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 1: I mean, look at Japan.

546
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 3: Japan, they're Economic minister flew here yesterday, they met with

547
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,200
Speaker 3: Scott Besen, they met with the Donald Trump and Trump

548
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 3: was like, yeah, there's been a great, great movement.

549
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 1: There's nothing that's been you know announced. That's Japan.

550
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:45,400
Speaker 3: By the way, we have a very well architecture trade

551
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 3: deal with Japan negotiated in twenty nineteen with Shinzo Abe.

552
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 3: If you want to update that, it's really not difficult.

553
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 3: So it's going to take this long just to do Japan.

554
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 3: We have seventy other countries that were supposed to do

555
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:59,120
Speaker 3: way more complex trading relationships than we do with anybody else.

556
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 3: This is a g SEP nations very easy actually to

557
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 3: hammer that out. They have good statistics, etc. Rules we

558
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:08,200
Speaker 3: can trust currency. These are all simple actually to hammer

559
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 3: out in an agreement. What are you going to do

560
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 3: with all these other countries which you slapped all these

561
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 3: huge tariffs on the the interim ninety days, where do

562
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 3: you think they're going to go?

563
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 1: They're going to China, same as the European Union.

564
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 3: They've just negotiated all that tariff exclusion with some of

565
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 3: the cars pumping away for BYD and Showman to have

566
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 3: more market entrants over there.

567
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 1: So there's big problems that we have right now.

568
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right.

569
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 2: And I even saw Fox News grumbling about like, hey,

570
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 2: we thought we were going to get ninety deals in

571
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:32,439
Speaker 2: ninety days.

572
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:34,160
Speaker 4: We don't have one.

573
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 2: We don't have one obvious, right, But I mean that

574
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:41,239
Speaker 2: Fox News is even saying that is incredible. And with

575
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 2: regard to this it she didn't come away empty handed

576
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:46,360
Speaker 2: from this trip to Vietnam. They apparently signed forty five

577
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 2: different agreements on issues like supply chains and railways, and

578
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:51,400
Speaker 2: it just underscores like for them, they have one big

579
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 2: problem our like trade war with US and the loss

580
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 2: of our very large and wealthy market. Right, our consumers

581
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 2: are very powerful. We spend a lot of money, There's

582
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,399
Speaker 2: no doubt about that. That's a significant problem. They have

583
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 2: the entire world that they can go to, They can

584
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:10,880
Speaker 2: use their own, you know, government programs to help subsidize

585
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 2: and support their own industry. They of course have their

586
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 2: own massive and burgeoning market. In fact, their exports as

587
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:21,120
Speaker 2: a percent of their GDP has been going down as

588
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:25,400
Speaker 2: their own domestic market has been increasingly powerful and they've

589
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,479
Speaker 2: been turning towards that, and our percent of you know,

590
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 2: the of their exports has also been going down. So yes,

591
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,359
Speaker 2: of course, we are incredibly important to China's economy. China

592
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,879
Speaker 2: is incredibly important to our economy. Decoupling this relationship is

593
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 2: going to involve severe pain on both sides. But their

594
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 2: problems are number one, I think more straightforward. They have

595
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 2: fewer problems to solve because they didn't launch a trade

596
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 2: war against the entire world like we did, and they

597
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 2: are smarter, like they have been more strategic over long

598
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 2: periods of time than we have, and so I think

599
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 2: our you know, even the Financial times are saying they're

600
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 2: set up to in a much better position than we

601
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:04,440
Speaker 2: are at this point.

602
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:06,360
Speaker 3: This is I mean, what did I just talk about

603
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 3: in our a block about oh we got to wait

604
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 3: on Jerome Powell. There's no Jerome Powell in China. The

605
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 3: CCPs like drop rates like, okay, got it? You know,

606
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 3: same with the raising rates done. Now I'll show you

607
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 3: guys for example, already you know we're seeing major price

608
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 3: increases hit here in the US. Go to B three please,

609
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 3: this is this is actually rocketing around new parent group

610
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 3: chats just like somebody.

611
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 1: Like me new upp a baby price.

612
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 3: Now keep in mind, look, this is an expensive stroller,

613
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:36,639
Speaker 3: so let's let's keep that in mind. That said, the

614
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 3: price increase from expensive to ultra expensive is still not great.

615
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 3: And this company has been done millions and millions of

616
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 3: dollars in sales. Well, their flagship strollers are all increasing

617
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,160
Speaker 3: by hundreds of dollars as a result of these tariffs.

618
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 3: And these are actually the first I would say, like

619
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 3: beloved product that I have seen on social media where

620
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 3: organic consumers are sharing it and are really complaining. So

621
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 3: you can see they're multip one hundred dollar increases that

622
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 3: were there. They also sent out up a baby an

623
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 3: email to all of their users saying, listen, we are

624
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 3: absorbing as much of this tariff price as we possibly can,

625
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 3: but there is just no way for us to be

626
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 3: able to do business without raising a lot of these prices,

627
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 3: and they're going to go into effect very very soon.

628
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 3: Our own friend Derek Thompson flagged this as well, about

629
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 3: how much of the child accessories are manufactured in China.

630
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 3: It's like something like ninety cents.

631
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 4: I go, hold up, yeah, so he says.

632
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 2: The business PRES's been good at reporting on China's global

633
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 2: leader in smartphone and electronics manufacturing. Consider also, as a

634
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 2: share of all US imports, China accounts for ninety nine

635
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 2: percent of child safety seats, ninety six percent of toys

636
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 2: for pets, ninety five percent of cooking appliances, ninety three

637
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 2: percent of coloring books for children, eighty eight percent of

638
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 2: microwave ovens, seventy plus percent of toys intended for children

639
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 2: under twelve. Yes, American AI, electronic, smartphone and clean energy

640
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 2: companies are not set up to thrive in a protected,

641
00:29:58,360 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 2: protracted trade war.

642
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 4: Mary.

643
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 2: Parents of young kids will be among the hardest hit.

644
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 2: So many of the things that new parents buy for

645
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 2: their kids and have to buy, you know, your crib,

646
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 2: your stroller, like the car seat, all of these things.

647
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 2: These are you know, must haves because they're not like luxuries.

648
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 2: So much of that, not to mention the you know,

649
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 2: toys and things you get for their Easter baskets and

650
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 2: things that go under the Christmas tree. So much of

651
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 2: that comes from China. And it's already extremely expensive to

652
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 2: be a new parent and all that that entails. So

653
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 2: new parents with young families are going to be very

654
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 2: hard hit.

655
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 1: Yeah.

656
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 3: I actually, by the way, did do some research and

657
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 3: there's really no made in America stroller, Like there's like

658
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 3: one off ones. But you know, stuff breaks, crystal. I'm

659
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 3: sure you can tell us about that, and you need

660
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 3: new parts. It's like, so where are going to come from? Well, oh,

661
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 3: choker over ninety three percent same with it. Luckily I

662
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 3: bought all this stuff before these tariffs come into place.

663
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 1: But if you're not so lucky, what are you going

664
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 1: to do?

665
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 3: The other thing is, as I have discovered, is there's

666
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 3: a thriving secondhand market for a lot of these things

667
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,840
Speaker 3: like that strollers, car seats, et cetera. Well, this is

668
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 3: just going to do the same thing that it's done

669
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 3: to the cars. Is that while yes, you could still

670
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 3: buy used you know, pre tariffed goods. Well, what do

671
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 3: you think supply and demand is going to show. You're

672
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 3: going to see an increase in the US stuff, So

673
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 3: you're actually gonna have to pay more, no matter if

674
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 3: you're buying new and or if you're buying used, And

675
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 3: it'll probably restrict the supply because of the overall number

676
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 3: of imports, which will only further skyrocket the amount of

677
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:26,240
Speaker 3: the prices here. And you know, all of this is allegedly,

678
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 3: you know, for the benefit of the country.

679
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 1: I would say, you know, my own bias.

680
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 3: Otherwise, you probably want to make it easier for parents

681
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 3: to be able to have children.

682
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 1: The law, you know, I don't know if people know this.

683
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 3: There's literally a law you have to have a car

684
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:39,200
Speaker 3: seat to be able to leave the hospital.

685
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 1: That's right, it has to be installed. And do you

686
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 1: you don't have.

687
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 4: A choice like and don't get a used car seat?

688
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, that's an obi Yes.

689
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 4: Getting a stroller?

690
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 2: Do you all don't get used car seat? You need

691
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 2: to get a new car seat. Ninety seven percent of

692
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 2: baby strollers, by the way, I just looked it up,

693
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 2: come from China.

694
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, and that's what I'm saying. I actually tried to

695
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 3: find one. I was like, hey, let's see if there's

696
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 3: anything made in America. Stroll, made in America, car seat.

697
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 3: I mean, the best you can get are some of

698
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 3: these that are designed in America. But that's not the

699
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 3: same thing, you know, like up a baby douna or

700
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 3: any of these other ones. But there's there's some Swedish

701
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 3: Swedish companies as well as some German companies. But guess what,

702
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 3: we also had tariffs on those countries, right, so, and

703
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 3: a lot of them are already more expensive. So you

704
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 3: know that, you know what it's like, don't screw with moms.

705
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 3: That's that's one of those where there's a lot of

706
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 3: moms out there, a lot of Facebook groups, Instagram and more,

707
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 3: where I actually guarantee that that will probably reach more

708
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 3: and have more political impact than a lot of.

709
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 1: The other stuff that is happening. Yeah, it's important for

710
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 1: people to understand.

711
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 2: Back in the George W. Bush era, they called them

712
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 2: like security moms. Now they're going to be like tariff moms,

713
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 2: anti tariff moms, free trade moms.

714
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean think about Facebook, Marketplace or any a

715
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 3: lot of these other places people are already skating by,

716
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 3: and now there's going to cost even more money. One

717
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 3: hundred dollars, three four hundred dollars, that's a lot of money.

718
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 3: That's a significant portion of the average Americans paycheck. And

719
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 3: you know, then we have the rise of this buy now,

720
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 3: pay later debt, which we're already seeing. Credit card minimum

721
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,760
Speaker 3: payments actually have skyrocketed just in the last two months,

722
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 3: so we can see that there's significant pressure on consumer households,

723
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 3: all right. And then last thing I wanted to flag

724
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 3: here is from the Chinese market and how they are

725
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 3: helping out their own customers. Show up this on please

726
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,719
Speaker 3: on the screen. So visitors to Tauboo, which is one

727
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 3: of the largest online shopping platforms in China, are now

728
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 3: being offered steep discounts on products which are normally exported

729
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 3: to the United States. For example, rice cooker from forty

730
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,959
Speaker 3: two dollars to twenty five eighty five inch TV from

731
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 3: five to twelve to six thirty five hundred dollars instead

732
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 3: of six hundred and thirty nine dollars. Offers are popping

733
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 3: up all across online apps.

734
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 1: Quote.

735
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 3: The first thing buyers are seeing is a section of

736
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 3: goods that's quote subsidized by the nation, basically the Chinese

737
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 3: government bailing out their own domestic online sellers to protect

738
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 3: their manufacturers, move goods, move into poory, and keep all

739
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,239
Speaker 3: of the supply chains and everybody else still employed. Make

740
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 3: sure that we don't see the freeze that's happening here

741
00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:00,080
Speaker 3: in America. So that's what a functioning state actually looks like.

742
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 3: They have a bailout. They have the ability to put

743
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:04,800
Speaker 3: pressure on all of their companies. They can drop their

744
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:06,959
Speaker 3: interest rates, they can manipulate their currency, they can do

745
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 3: all of these different things. They're prepared for hundreds of

746
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:12,280
Speaker 3: billions of dollars in domestic capital injection into their economy,

747
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 3: and meanwhile, over here, we've got basically none of that.

748
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it looks like they're painting it as like

749
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 2: a patriotic project to like upgrade your washing machine or you're.

750
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 3: Like, no, they are, and guess what people probably will

751
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 3: do that. You know, they of course they will. They're

752
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 3: under like they feel as if they're under attack. We

753
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 3: are just we're literally the people who instigate it, right,

754
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 3: So of course they're going to be able to suffer

755
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 3: if they want to. Also, let's compare the uh, you

756
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:35,879
Speaker 3: know the history of both of those nations. Who has

757
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:39,319
Speaker 3: more and longer and capacity of suffering. I wouldn't put

758
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:41,360
Speaker 3: my money on the most consumer obsessed country in the

759
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 3: also world.

760
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 4: What are we suffering for?

761
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 1: That's what I'm shy.

762
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 2: We're not nobody, Like people don't want this. It's not popular.

763
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,279
Speaker 2: It's not like we're behind this project. So there's no

764
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 2: unified like Americans are ready to you know, pay double

765
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 2: at Walmart or whatever.

766
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 4: No, we're like, why are you doing this? To a

767
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 4: stop it?

768
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 2: So, yeah, they're also in a in a much stronger

769
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 2: position viz a VI their population and their support of

770
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 2: the Chinese government's direction.

771
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 3: Here go, all right, let's get to Richard Hanania standing by.

772
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:14,319
Speaker 2: So we had a fairly significant court development yesterday in

773
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 2: the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia. He is that immigrant

774
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:22,279
Speaker 2: who was wrongly deported to El Salvador, and specifically to

775
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 2: Bukelli's torture dungeon in El Salvador. There of course, was

776
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 2: a question very early on with regard to how all

777
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:31,840
Speaker 2: of this went down in the Alien Enemies Act where

778
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 2: the planes were in the air in a judge Judge

779
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:37,320
Speaker 2: Bosburg said you have to turn them around. You cannot

780
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:40,359
Speaker 2: do this, and the administration went ahead and flew those

781
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:43,880
Speaker 2: planes anyway. So yesterday, let's put this up on the screen.

782
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 2: Judge Bosburg found probable cause to hold the administration in

783
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 2: contempt of court for defying his order to turn around

784
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 2: those planes. One of those planes had a Brigo Garcia

785
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 2: on it. Some I think two hundred and eighty three

786
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:00,719
Speaker 2: is the number of migrants that were on those three

787
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:04,359
Speaker 2: planes total. And he is demanding new details in order

788
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 2: for officials to purge their contempt, meaning basically to rectify

789
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 2: the situation. So this is different. They haven't been found

790
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 2: in contempt yet, but this appears to be building in

791
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 2: this direction if the administration continues to fail to comply.

792
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 2: So joining us to talk about this development and this

793
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 2: entire situation with Il Salvador and the Kelly and the

794
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 2: Trump administration denying these migrants any.

795
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 4: Sort of due process, We've got.

796
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 2: Richard Hannania He is a political commentator. He is the

797
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 2: author of a number of books, including the Origins of Woke.

798
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:38,399
Speaker 4: And also has his own substack. Good to see Richard.

799
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:39,240
Speaker 1: Good to see Richard.

800
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 6: Glad to be here.

801
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, of course. So just give us your top line,

802
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 2: like what you have thought about this whole situation, and

803
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 2: especially the way the administration is insisting that even after

804
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 2: they admitted that they made an error with regard to

805
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 2: kill mar Abrego Garcia, now they are absolutely refusing to

806
00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:00,839
Speaker 2: do anything to correct that error, and Stephen has gone

807
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 2: so far to even deny that it was an error

808
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 2: at all in the first place.

809
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 7: Yeah, So there are these two cases proceeding on parallel tracks.

810
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 7: There's the Abrago Garcia case, which is getting a lot

811
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:13,879
Speaker 7: of attention. There's also don't forget the Venezuelan case where

812
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 7: they shipped off those hundreds of venezuelanstal Salvador, the country

813
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 7: that they weren't from, and that's where that's the case

814
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 7: where they are there's probable cost to find them in contempt.

815
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 7: So we're going to have a couple of weeks here

816
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 7: where the administration is going to come back.

817
00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:28,760
Speaker 6: Either they're going to be able.

818
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 7: To say we've answered your question satisfactory, satisfactorily, or there

819
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 7: could be a kind of going forward with a criminal

820
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 7: contempt charge. Yeah, the Abrego Garcia case, this one is

821
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:44,759
Speaker 7: even more frightening. I mean, both of them involved disobeying

822
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 7: a court order. But this was the Supreme Court, and

823
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 7: they went to the Supreme Court and the Supreme Court said,

824
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 7: you have to facilitate his return. Now, the lower court

825
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 7: had said you have to effectuate his return, and the

826
00:37:55,560 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 7: Trump administration has gone and tried to read that very

827
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 7: very narrowly. Now the so facilitate maybe is not as

828
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:07,720
Speaker 7: extreme as effectuate. There's a reason the Supreme Court preferred

829
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:10,719
Speaker 7: one phrasing in that nine oh decision over the other.

830
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 7: But I think everyone agrees that they have to do something.

831
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 7: They can't just sit there and do nothing. And the

832
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 7: and the administration argues that they've tried to argue at

833
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:20,719
Speaker 7: the lower court level that basically, if he shows up

834
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:23,359
Speaker 7: at a port of entry by himself, they'll let him in. Now,

835
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:26,359
Speaker 7: what's ridiculous about all this is they are kind of

836
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 7: teasing the court system. I mean, somebody, uh uh, there's

837
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 7: a there's a tweet that this, uh, the plane of

838
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 7: Venezuelan's left after the judge's order, and then uh Bukele

839
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:41,000
Speaker 7: tweets oopsie. And I think Rubio retweets it, and then

840
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 7: after the right as this is going on, Bukele comes

841
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 7: to the White House and they're sitting there and you

842
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 7: know whatever our facilitate means. He's sitting next to you,

843
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:53,319
Speaker 7: you can ask him in a serious way, you can

844
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:55,879
Speaker 7: try to do something. And they don't decided to sit there.

845
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 7: They giggle about it. Buke says, what am I supposed

846
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 7: to do? Smuggle him into? The UN say it's like, no,

847
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 7: this is part of an agreement the US paid you.

848
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 7: And now Senator Van Holland from Maryland goes down to

849
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:09,799
Speaker 7: Al Salvador and he says that the Vice president of

850
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 7: the country tells him that basically, you know, what are

851
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 7: we supposed to do?

852
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 6: Smuggle him in? And he says no.

853
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 7: Pam Bondi said that if you guys released him, you

854
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:20,359
Speaker 7: can go back. So they're playing this game. They're trying

855
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:23,359
Speaker 7: to interpret it very very narrowly. What's frightening about this

856
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 7: is they go back and now they just deny what

857
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:29,359
Speaker 7: the Supreme Court says. Now Stephen Miller and Donald Trump,

858
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:32,239
Speaker 7: when they're talking to the press, we'll say we won

859
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:35,680
Speaker 7: nine to oh. I mean, it's just there's kind of

860
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 7: not a connection to reality. So a lot of things

861
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 7: are at stake here. There's the principle that the president

862
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:44,080
Speaker 7: cannot just take someone off the streets and send them

863
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:47,400
Speaker 7: to a third world labor camp. They're floating the idea

864
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:50,280
Speaker 7: now that they do it to US citizens. We've seen

865
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 7: people who are long term permanent residents being picked off

866
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:56,319
Speaker 7: those streets because they've runten the wrong op ed or

867
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 7: had the wrong ideas about US policy towards Israel.

868
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,320
Speaker 6: And so you know what's kind of what's next.

869
00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 7: We have an administration that doesn't tell the truth, that

870
00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 7: will lie about basic things. They'll say a guy he's

871
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 7: a convicted MS thirteen member, when he's not. They'll say

872
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 7: they want at the Supreme Court while they lost. They

873
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 7: don't see citizenship as a bride line. They don't see

874
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 7: any free speech respect for permanent residents. And so yeah,

875
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 7: I think this is probably the most important thing going

876
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 7: on in politics right now because the question is what

877
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:26,360
Speaker 7: are the limits here and what is going to be

878
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 7: the pushback that stops them?

879
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:30,520
Speaker 3: Richard, How does this fit? So let's put let's say

880
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 3: C two up there on the screen. This was a

881
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 3: tweet from jd Vance that I saw you reacting to

882
00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 3: this was somebody who was criticizing his initial defense of

883
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 3: the Abrego Garcia deportation. Who was Jesse Single saying, I'd

884
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 3: hate the smug, self asshirted bullshit. I know I'm right,

885
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 3: and people must be dumb or immoral to disagree with me.

886
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 3: It's easy to go through life because when you think

887
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 3: you've never had to seriously about why your worldview is

888
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 3: justification for the mass invasion of the country my ancestors

889
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 3: built with their bare hands. Now, I know you've criticized

890
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 3: some of this type of rhetoric in the past, but

891
00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 3: break down some of the your analytical frameworks about the

892
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:08,440
Speaker 3: Trump administration low human capital and how this all fits

893
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:08,799
Speaker 3: into that.

894
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:13,279
Speaker 7: So JD is obviously not low human capital. He wrote

895
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:15,399
Speaker 7: a very well regarded book on his life. He went

896
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 7: to a law school, a very selective institution. He's kind

897
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 7: of a tragic figure at this point. He's obviously very smart,

898
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 7: but he's part of a movement and he has ambitions,

899
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 7: and he became vice president because he's part of a

900
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 7: movement that has the characteristics of a cult of personality.

901
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 7: At this point, and so JD, it's kind of fascinating

902
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 7: to watch him. He usually doesn't just straight up lie,

903
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 7: but he always begins his statements with a criticism of

904
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:48,799
Speaker 7: the media, somebody like Jesse Single or the Biden administration,

905
00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 7: and a praise of Trump and then kind of goes

906
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 7: off in this direction where he's not directly answering the point.

907
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:56,919
Speaker 7: And I think that that's what makes him a tragic figure.

908
00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:58,719
Speaker 7: I think he's a smart person who wants to be

909
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,799
Speaker 7: respected by kind of the intelligency of people like us,

910
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 7: but he's working for a man who I mean, we've

911
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 7: all seen it. We've seen kind of what Trump is

912
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 7: at this point. It's been reported, and I've heard this

913
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:13,320
Speaker 7: from people firsthand that when you go in to apply

914
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:15,359
Speaker 7: for a job of the administration, one of the first

915
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:17,480
Speaker 7: things they ask you is do you think Trump won

916
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:20,480
Speaker 7: the twenty twenty election. And I've heard that's been reported

917
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 7: in the media, but I've heard it's actually worse than that,

918
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 7: because they go and they say how big do you

919
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:29,520
Speaker 7: think the victory? And there's really no answer you give

920
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:32,759
Speaker 7: other that can give other than all fifty states. Because

921
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:34,880
Speaker 7: Trump is now saying he would have won all fifty

922
00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 7: states if it wasn't for vote fraud.

923
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 6: And I've always been encouraging the media.

924
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:40,880
Speaker 7: When you have these people on these Sunday programs, Bestn't

925
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,880
Speaker 7: and these people like this, ask them if Trump won California.

926
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:46,359
Speaker 7: They will not contradict him. There is no way they'll

927
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 7: contradict him. Stephen Miller might say he won California. Jd

928
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 7: Vance might deflect and start blaming the media for asking

929
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 7: a gotcha question. But these are the dynamics that we're

930
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:57,880
Speaker 7: dealing with, and it touches on everything. So this morning,

931
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:01,880
Speaker 7: Trump says Powell can't be fired quickly enough. And the

932
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:04,359
Speaker 7: people who know anything about the economy say, you think

933
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:07,360
Speaker 7: tariffs are bad for the stock market, wait until we

934
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 7: go after fed independence.

935
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:10,360
Speaker 6: And from everything.

936
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 7: We've seen, there is just nobody in the room who

937
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:14,719
Speaker 7: will say anything other than yes, sir, yes, or yester.

938
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 7: The movement has been purging everyone who has a spine

939
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 7: or has a kind of personal integrity, or who will

940
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 7: stand up to this man. And so this is why

941
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 7: kind of the possibility space of the things that could happen.

942
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:27,720
Speaker 7: Sorry to be so dark, but I think the last

943
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:30,840
Speaker 7: month or two have really been clarifying about what's at stake.

944
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:34,279
Speaker 4: I agree, I agree, you know you tweeted something this.

945
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 2: So you wrote a great piece that I thought was

946
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:41,160
Speaker 2: really insightful called The Based Ritual, about the social dynamics

947
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:43,959
Speaker 2: within this movement. And these are not like random fringe

948
00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:45,759
Speaker 2: people on the internet anymore. These are people that, as

949
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:48,720
Speaker 2: you point out, are staffing jd Vance, They're staffing Josh Holly.

950
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:54,399
Speaker 2: They're increasingly in important, significant positions throughout the administration. And

951
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:58,879
Speaker 2: you know about that based ritual direction and the way

952
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:03,080
Speaker 2: that everybody's just sort of competing to be increasingly counter

953
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:06,319
Speaker 2: signaling how how bad they are and how racist they

954
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 2: are and how sexist they are, and no one wants

955
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:11,400
Speaker 2: to outdo or be outdone by the other people in

956
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:13,919
Speaker 2: the group. You tweeted, it's funny that Trump isn't doing

957
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 2: mass deportations, but he's got all of the magas passionately

958
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 2: defending the idea of having a few hundred people in

959
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:21,919
Speaker 2: a labor camp. It's all about vice signaling for them.

960
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 2: Give them one or two random guys to torture and

961
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 2: MAGA is happy. Now, I would say I fully expect

962
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:31,359
Speaker 2: them to move on to mass deportations. The acting ICE

963
00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 2: director is talking about setting up Amazon Prime for human beings,

964
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 2: and the New Republican budget would make ICE the I

965
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 2: think best funded law enforcement agency in the history of

966
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:43,720
Speaker 2: the country, maybe of the world. So I'm not putting

967
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:46,280
Speaker 2: off the table that they're going in that direction next,

968
00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:51,399
Speaker 2: but help us understand what are these internal dynamics that

969
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 2: lead to a situation where these people are cheering random

970
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 2: we don't even know who these guys are, but random

971
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:02,880
Speaker 2: people with no criminal record being locked up in a

972
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 2: prison that is worse than what we reserve for serial

973
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:06,920
Speaker 2: killers here in the US.

974
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:08,759
Speaker 6: Yeah.

975
00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:11,120
Speaker 7: I mean, we thought that virtue signaling was bad when

976
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 7: everyone tried to show how anti racist and unseexist and

977
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:19,040
Speaker 7: nice they I don't think we really adequately considered kind

978
00:45:19,040 --> 00:45:21,719
Speaker 7: of you can go in the opposite direction. And so

979
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 7: there's this kind of thing where you talk to young

980
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:28,240
Speaker 7: conservatives or you're you're around them, and there is this.

981
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 6: Yeah, I call it the based ritual.

982
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:32,560
Speaker 7: So basically they're trying to show that they are not

983
00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 7: politically correct, and this goes in the direction of kind

984
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 7: of performative cruelty towards outsiders. I think we have our

985
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:43,440
Speaker 7: regime that kind of operates on that principle. It's loyalty

986
00:45:43,480 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 7: to Trump, it's kind of performative cruelty. They you know,

987
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:49,160
Speaker 7: they would spit it as try to look out for

988
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:51,719
Speaker 7: the American worker, or look back, look out for the

989
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 7: forgotten men and women and so forth. You know, they

990
00:45:53,560 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 7: have these justifications in their heads. But you know there's

991
00:45:56,680 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 7: a there's a kind of disturbing and clear uh tendency

992
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:06,399
Speaker 7: to downplay the rottenness of the Hitler regime or kind

993
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:09,959
Speaker 7: of fascist states, or to defend literally anything Trump does,

994
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:13,240
Speaker 7: or be completely indifferent to whether we're sending, like you said,

995
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 7: people who are innocent, not convicted of anything to these

996
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:20,960
Speaker 7: labor camps potentially indefinitely. We talk about Abrigo Garcia. The

997
00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 7: administration has been trying to find, you know, dig up stuff.

998
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:26,880
Speaker 7: He had some kind of a domestic violence dispute, But

999
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:30,920
Speaker 7: we forgot about the Venezuelans, including the gay makeup artist,

1000
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:33,759
Speaker 7: who I have not seen anyone say anything, as far

1001
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 7: as he's ever heard anybody he has any gang ties,

1002
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:38,799
Speaker 7: he has any criminal work, nothing, just not even a

1003
00:46:38,840 --> 00:46:43,959
Speaker 7: single allegation. And I think that the understanding of why

1004
00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:48,399
Speaker 7: this happens, I think the movement it rots from the head.

1005
00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 7: It really is Donald Trump. If you have somebody who

1006
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:53,400
Speaker 7: lies this much, if you have somebody who just demands

1007
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:56,319
Speaker 7: loyalty above all else, who's not civil in public life,

1008
00:46:56,400 --> 00:46:59,160
Speaker 7: who kind of delights it in cruelty to I think

1009
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:02,440
Speaker 7: that that attracts a certain kind of person, it repulses

1010
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:04,560
Speaker 7: a different kind of person. And I think that these

1011
00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:07,520
Speaker 7: two dynamics, the base rituals so to speak, and the

1012
00:47:07,600 --> 00:47:10,360
Speaker 7: loyalty to Trump, I think together their freighting combination.

1013
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 3: One of the things, Richard, that you were initially optimistic

1014
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 3: about was the quote tech right right and some of

1015
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 3: the more moderating influences. Let's say that you were praiseworthy

1016
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:26,120
Speaker 3: of and the first administration you did write an interesting piece.

1017
00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 3: Can we put d one please up there on the screen,

1018
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:32,399
Speaker 3: which I actually quite enjoyed, and it's called the cat

1019
00:47:32,480 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 3: turd to Silicon Valley billionaire pipeline must be broken. Can

1020
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:41,760
Speaker 3: you break down kind of this phenomenon where you observe

1021
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 3: that in your framework, elite human capital and or people

1022
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:50,239
Speaker 3: with skill sets and others who know better enter the

1023
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:54,400
Speaker 3: Trump orbit and find themselves actually being brought down to

1024
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:56,920
Speaker 3: the center of the gravity of the movement as opposed

1025
00:47:56,960 --> 00:48:00,720
Speaker 3: to raising the collective capacity of the entire movement.

1026
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:04,319
Speaker 7: So a few years ago, I wrote an article called

1027
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:06,800
Speaker 7: Understanding the Tech Right, and I was the first person

1028
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:09,799
Speaker 7: that I've seen use the phrase tech right. And this

1029
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:12,239
Speaker 7: was at the beginning when people like Mark Andresid and

1030
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 7: Elon Musk were really starting to take a public role

1031
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:19,279
Speaker 7: as kind of more Republican leaning figures. And I was

1032
00:48:19,320 --> 00:48:22,840
Speaker 7: optimistic at the time because, look, these were obviously smart,

1033
00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 7: accomplished people. They've done a lot of things in their lives.

1034
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 7: I thought there was a human capital.

1035
00:48:26,880 --> 00:48:27,239
Speaker 6: On the right.

1036
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:30,440
Speaker 7: There's been a fleeing from the Republican Party in the

1037
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:32,919
Speaker 7: Trump era of people who are college educated and people

1038
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 7: who are informed and connected to reality, frankly, and I

1039
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:38,960
Speaker 7: thought that would they would make things better. It was

1040
00:48:39,040 --> 00:48:43,080
Speaker 7: kind of the infusion of human capital that the right needed. Unfortunately,

1041
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:45,960
Speaker 7: it hasn't really worked out that way. And just from

1042
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:49,480
Speaker 7: watching these people and how they use Twitter, Musk particularly,

1043
00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:52,040
Speaker 7: but a lot of the other ones, you realize that

1044
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 7: as intelligent as they might be and as accomplished they

1045
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:56,120
Speaker 7: might as they might be in the business world, they

1046
00:48:56,200 --> 00:49:00,960
Speaker 7: really have absorbed what's kind of swimming They've they've they've

1047
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 7: imbued whatever is in the air in the conservative movement,

1048
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:07,880
Speaker 7: and talking to these people, they often you know, they're

1049
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:10,560
Speaker 7: so radicalized. I think by what happened with COVID and

1050
00:49:10,600 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 7: what happened with wokeness and some of the personal coverage

1051
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:17,240
Speaker 7: they received from people like Kara Swisher and the mainstream

1052
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:21,239
Speaker 7: press that they they took a reaction that's understandable but

1053
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:22,759
Speaker 7: was not the right way to go, which is that

1054
00:49:22,800 --> 00:49:26,440
Speaker 7: they shut out credible sources of information and they started

1055
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:30,439
Speaker 7: just listening to Twitter and ons and so Elon Musk

1056
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:32,480
Speaker 7: is sitting there all day, and I think he believes

1057
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:32,799
Speaker 7: the stuff.

1058
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:34,320
Speaker 6: I think he believes the stuff about.

1059
00:49:34,080 --> 00:49:38,799
Speaker 7: Massive voter fraud, putting the election, about voter without voter.

1060
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:41,480
Speaker 7: I d our civilization is destroyed, and they're shipping it

1061
00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:45,759
Speaker 7: legalsh to win elections because this is what everyone arounds them,

1062
00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:48,000
Speaker 7: and everyone who they trust at this point believes. The

1063
00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:51,040
Speaker 7: problem is the right as a whole. As smart as

1064
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:53,239
Speaker 7: any individual is, none of us are that smart as

1065
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 7: an individual were. We only have intelligence because we're part

1066
00:49:56,040 --> 00:49:58,160
Speaker 7: of a community, because we know what sources of trust,

1067
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:01,120
Speaker 7: because we have conversations like this, because we read newspapers

1068
00:50:01,160 --> 00:50:04,400
Speaker 7: and talk to scientists and people in politics and people

1069
00:50:04,440 --> 00:50:06,160
Speaker 7: with sensible views on these things.

1070
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:07,640
Speaker 6: So once you shut yourself out.

1071
00:50:07,680 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 7: It doesn't matter how high your IQ is going to

1072
00:50:10,600 --> 00:50:13,200
Speaker 7: you can follow into social media radicalization and you could

1073
00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 7: have the worldview that.

1074
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:14,959
Speaker 6: Just doesn't make sense.

1075
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 7: And I think we see that most clearly in what's

1076
00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:20,800
Speaker 7: happened with goage. Look, there's sympathetic to the idea of

1077
00:50:20,840 --> 00:50:23,719
Speaker 7: smaller government, sympathetic to the idea that government can.

1078
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:24,320
Speaker 6: Be more efficient.

1079
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:28,400
Speaker 7: There's people at places like AI and Cato Institute, and

1080
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:31,160
Speaker 7: if those are your goals, there are smart people you

1081
00:50:31,160 --> 00:50:34,359
Speaker 7: could find who will put you on the right path.

1082
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 7: And they've been thinking about this for a really long time.

1083
00:50:36,680 --> 00:50:39,480
Speaker 7: Elon Musk has not done this at all. He basically

1084
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:41,040
Speaker 7: came in and said it's going to be me and

1085
00:50:41,080 --> 00:50:43,239
Speaker 7: a few of my engineering buddies and basically what the

1086
00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:45,759
Speaker 7: priorities and government should be. I'm just going to listen

1087
00:50:45,800 --> 00:50:48,560
Speaker 7: to kind of whatever is going viral on Twitter. And

1088
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:50,640
Speaker 7: in the end, he didn't save He's not going to

1089
00:50:50,640 --> 00:50:52,480
Speaker 7: save a fraction of the money that he saved. A

1090
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:54,560
Speaker 7: lot of the stuff that they cut was ended up

1091
00:50:54,600 --> 00:50:58,799
Speaker 7: being very valuable, things like basic scientific research, things like.

1092
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:02,680
Speaker 6: Statistics, getting statistics to make.

1093
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:05,480
Speaker 7: Sure government does run more efficiently, stuff that doesn't cost

1094
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:07,640
Speaker 7: that much and probably is some of the most cost

1095
00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 7: effective stuff in government you could do.

1096
00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:11,879
Speaker 6: But because the fact that he just has a.

1097
00:51:11,840 --> 00:51:13,799
Speaker 7: Simple idea, I'm going to cut government and not think

1098
00:51:13,800 --> 00:51:15,440
Speaker 7: about how or why or I don't need to think

1099
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:18,280
Speaker 7: about that, it's kind of been it's been a debacle,

1100
00:51:18,560 --> 00:51:21,680
Speaker 7: and I think we see that across the board with

1101
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:25,719
Speaker 7: these guys when they're when they're they're being part of politics,

1102
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:27,960
Speaker 7: but also like they're swimming in the waters of the

1103
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:28,640
Speaker 7: Trump movement.

1104
00:51:29,160 --> 00:51:29,480
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1105
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:31,920
Speaker 2: I mean, on the one hand, yes, in terms of

1106
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:34,799
Speaker 2: their stated goals, it's been a disaster. Like he's he

1107
00:51:34,880 --> 00:51:36,920
Speaker 2: was a result, well I'm going to cut two trillion dollars.

1108
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:39,560
Speaker 2: Now he's like meekly in the cabinet meeting, like I'm

1109
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:41,279
Speaker 2: going to cut one hundred and fifty billion, and even.

1110
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:42,160
Speaker 4: That's a freaking lie.

1111
00:51:42,280 --> 00:51:42,440
Speaker 1: Right.

1112
00:51:42,719 --> 00:51:45,120
Speaker 2: On the other hand, you know, he hates government, and

1113
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:48,360
Speaker 2: government function doesn't function now, like social Security. Try to

1114
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:50,760
Speaker 2: go to the Social Security Office and see how that goes.

1115
00:51:51,440 --> 00:51:55,399
Speaker 2: The agencies that were regulating his businesses, they've been defenestrated,

1116
00:51:55,640 --> 00:51:57,920
Speaker 2: Like they will not be able to regulate his business,

1117
00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 2: nor would they because of you know, the corruption, conflicts

1118
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:04,360
Speaker 2: of interest that are involved so I think from his perspective,

1119
00:52:04,480 --> 00:52:07,879
Speaker 2: in certain ways it was also a success. But which

1120
00:52:07,880 --> 00:52:09,279
Speaker 2: I do want to ask you a little bit about

1121
00:52:09,320 --> 00:52:11,400
Speaker 2: your views. Is the first time having you on since

1122
00:52:11,440 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 2: you were you know, revealed your anonymous writings back in

1123
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:16,759
Speaker 2: the day, which were you know, white nationalists, which you've disavowed.

1124
00:52:17,120 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 2: But I still do have some questions about your ideology

1125
00:52:20,200 --> 00:52:21,960
Speaker 2: that I wanted to, you know, to hear from you on.

1126
00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:26,000
Speaker 2: Especially when I hear you making the distinction between low

1127
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:30,440
Speaker 2: human capital and elite human capital. It raises the question

1128
00:52:30,560 --> 00:52:34,279
Speaker 2: for me whether this is just some sort of eugenics

1129
00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:37,799
Speaker 2: ideology in another form, like you're no longer drawing the

1130
00:52:37,840 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 2: lines around.

1131
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:39,720
Speaker 4: Like strictly IQ.

1132
00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:43,759
Speaker 2: You'd previously supported for sterilization for people with low IQs.

1133
00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:46,439
Speaker 2: You know, previously you had an idea of different racial

1134
00:52:46,560 --> 00:52:49,360
Speaker 2: hierarchies in your head. Perhaps that's in the past, but

1135
00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 2: is this just a new way to separate down which

1136
00:52:52,719 --> 00:52:56,560
Speaker 2: humans are worthy and which humans are unworthy?

1137
00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:59,040
Speaker 7: So I will say that I did write some things

1138
00:52:59,080 --> 00:53:03,480
Speaker 7: that were very bad and straightforwardly advocating sterilizing people with LOIQ.

1139
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:04,759
Speaker 6: I said, here's an argument for it.

1140
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:06,719
Speaker 7: Now at what I won't litigate it because it was

1141
00:53:06,719 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 7: all that and I just want to forget that stuff

1142
00:53:08,520 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 7: ever happened.

1143
00:53:09,280 --> 00:53:12,480
Speaker 2: Okay, sterilization of the unfit is the only way to

1144
00:53:12,480 --> 00:53:13,520
Speaker 2: stop the decline of the word.

1145
00:53:13,600 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 7: No, but it was a longer thing, like if you

1146
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:18,560
Speaker 7: believe X, Y Z. Anyways, whatever, it was terrible stuff.

1147
00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:22,560
Speaker 7: Everything I believed in twenty eleven is bad regardless. But yeah,

1148
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:24,759
Speaker 7: as far as the human capital stuff, look, there is

1149
00:53:25,600 --> 00:53:27,080
Speaker 7: you know what I write about these things like the

1150
00:53:27,120 --> 00:53:29,520
Speaker 7: base Ritual, and I write about where the right has gone.

1151
00:53:29,920 --> 00:53:31,920
Speaker 6: I see myself.

1152
00:53:31,400 --> 00:53:34,080
Speaker 7: From twelve years ago, when I was an anonymous basement

1153
00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 7: dweller writing these racist creeds. I've seen that person become

1154
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:41,600
Speaker 7: the Republican Party, and I've kind of if I had

1155
00:53:41,640 --> 00:53:43,839
Speaker 7: stayed that person, maybe I would be in the administration

1156
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:48,160
Speaker 7: at this point. But I changed, and I think it's horrifying,

1157
00:53:48,160 --> 00:53:50,040
Speaker 7: and I think I have some kind of insights into

1158
00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:52,480
Speaker 7: kind of what's going on here. And so the idea

1159
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:54,400
Speaker 7: that human capital is kind of a variation of that.

1160
00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:57,520
Speaker 7: I'm not going to say that there's I'm not going

1161
00:53:57,600 --> 00:53:58,920
Speaker 7: to go in the other direction to say there's no

1162
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 7: such thing as intelligence.

1163
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:04,279
Speaker 2: There is no such thing, or just to clarify sure,

1164
00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:07,640
Speaker 2: there are human beings to have differences, right, It's fine

1165
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:10,640
Speaker 2: to note those differences, like, I have no problem with that.

1166
00:54:11,280 --> 00:54:15,439
Speaker 2: Where I have a problem is when you interpret those

1167
00:54:15,480 --> 00:54:18,920
Speaker 2: differences as meaning that different human beings get different rights.

1168
00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 2: And that's really my question to you, and to me,

1169
00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:25,279
Speaker 2: that's sort of the foundation of like eugenesis type ideology

1170
00:54:25,400 --> 00:54:27,160
Speaker 2: is like, well, we're going to decide these people are

1171
00:54:27,160 --> 00:54:29,600
Speaker 2: better than those people, and that means that those people

1172
00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:31,680
Speaker 2: that we decided are not as good. They're not going

1173
00:54:31,719 --> 00:54:33,399
Speaker 2: to get the same rights, They're not going to get

1174
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:35,080
Speaker 2: to have the same to say, they're not going to

1175
00:54:35,080 --> 00:54:37,400
Speaker 2: get to have children or whatever it is. The program

1176
00:54:37,480 --> 00:54:39,279
Speaker 2: is that we decide for them. And you know, I

1177
00:54:39,280 --> 00:54:41,279
Speaker 2: think that type of ideology is very much how you

1178
00:54:41,400 --> 00:54:46,480
Speaker 2: end up, for example, cheering the you know, deportation to

1179
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:50,680
Speaker 2: a slave labor camp of people that you've decided are

1180
00:54:50,840 --> 00:54:52,800
Speaker 2: unworthy of basic human rights.

1181
00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:54,040
Speaker 4: So that's my question for.

1182
00:54:54,040 --> 00:54:57,520
Speaker 2: You, is do you still have that view that some

1183
00:54:57,560 --> 00:55:01,160
Speaker 2: people are less worthy of the same rights as other people.

1184
00:55:02,280 --> 00:55:05,120
Speaker 7: I'm glad you asked the question in that way, Crystal,

1185
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:07,880
Speaker 7: because yeah, I think you're right. I think that's the

1186
00:55:07,960 --> 00:55:09,960
Speaker 7: right thing to be concerned about. Do you go to

1187
00:55:10,000 --> 00:55:13,200
Speaker 7: a place where, look, there's one thing to analyze things

1188
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:16,200
Speaker 7: and say, why does the right accept anti VAX's arguments

1189
00:55:16,360 --> 00:55:18,839
Speaker 7: while the left does? And human capital is I think

1190
00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:21,520
Speaker 7: a way to understand that the right is now less educated.

1191
00:55:21,560 --> 00:55:24,120
Speaker 7: They have all kinds of crazy ideas and all kinds

1192
00:55:24,160 --> 00:55:26,920
Speaker 7: of things, and you kind of need that analysis. You

1193
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 7: don't understand how anti vax goes from a left wing

1194
00:55:30,280 --> 00:55:34,200
Speaker 7: cause to something that's embraced by Republicans without understanding this

1195
00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:38,319
Speaker 7: and RFK and his general crankery. Now, the question is

1196
00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:40,600
Speaker 7: does that mean that low human capital?

1197
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:41,400
Speaker 6: As we say, it's.

1198
00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:42,960
Speaker 7: Kind of it's kind of a harsh term, and it's

1199
00:55:43,000 --> 00:55:45,120
Speaker 7: something that was built on Twitter. But let's say people

1200
00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:48,560
Speaker 7: with less cognitive capabilities or less education, do they deserve

1201
00:55:48,760 --> 00:55:49,320
Speaker 7: less rights?

1202
00:55:49,360 --> 00:55:50,800
Speaker 6: And no, I've stood against that.

1203
00:55:50,840 --> 00:55:53,279
Speaker 7: I mean, when I talk about Abrego Garcia, I know

1204
00:55:53,360 --> 00:55:54,360
Speaker 7: nothing about him personally.

1205
00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:56,600
Speaker 6: He may be a gang member for all I know.

1206
00:55:56,680 --> 00:55:59,920
Speaker 7: He's not a noble prize winning physicist or whatever. But

1207
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:03,480
Speaker 7: his rights matter, and the rule of law matters, and

1208
00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:06,240
Speaker 7: the idea that we're all citizens equal before the government.

1209
00:56:06,280 --> 00:56:08,000
Speaker 7: I mean, he's not a citizen, but still there are

1210
00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:10,800
Speaker 7: some rules in how you treat people. Those are important

1211
00:56:10,800 --> 00:56:13,160
Speaker 7: principles to me. So I think that we have to

1212
00:56:13,160 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 7: create a space. I saw people on the Blue Sky

1213
00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:18,759
Speaker 7: trying to cancel Mattic Galacias the other day because he

1214
00:56:18,800 --> 00:56:20,960
Speaker 7: said some things where, oh, I don't like to look

1215
00:56:21,000 --> 00:56:22,960
Speaker 7: into the origins of group differences, but you know, I

1216
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:24,719
Speaker 7: want to treat everyone equal, and we still should be

1217
00:56:24,719 --> 00:56:26,480
Speaker 7: concerned about racism and we should have to have booze

1218
00:56:26,480 --> 00:56:27,200
Speaker 7: against racism.

1219
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:28,560
Speaker 6: All that stuff I agree with now.

1220
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:30,759
Speaker 7: But they still wanted to cancel him because he kind

1221
00:56:30,760 --> 00:56:33,799
Speaker 7: of cryptically according to Will Stancil, and these people on

1222
00:56:33,840 --> 00:56:37,719
Speaker 7: Blue Sky expressed a belief in group differences, according to them,

1223
00:56:37,880 --> 00:56:39,720
Speaker 7: And I think what we have to do is, yes,

1224
00:56:40,040 --> 00:56:42,719
Speaker 7: hold on to this idea that everyone has value, hold

1225
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:45,840
Speaker 7: on to the idea of fair treatment and individual rights.

1226
00:56:46,160 --> 00:56:48,279
Speaker 7: And that's the important thing. That's how we don't go

1227
00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:50,080
Speaker 7: down the path of kind of where Maga is going.

1228
00:56:50,200 --> 00:56:52,040
Speaker 3: Got it, so, Richard, to push you a little bit here,

1229
00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:55,120
Speaker 3: then I would say, it was pretty evident if you're

1230
00:56:55,320 --> 00:56:56,880
Speaker 3: run in many of the same circles I do. I

1231
00:56:56,960 --> 00:56:58,200
Speaker 3: knew a lot of these folks, and I knew that

1232
00:56:58,200 --> 00:56:59,840
Speaker 3: they were going to get into power. You were pretty

1233
00:57:00,160 --> 00:57:02,320
Speaker 3: well informed as well, and you still voted for Trump.

1234
00:57:02,360 --> 00:57:05,520
Speaker 3: So what's with the about face in this expectation, you know,

1235
00:57:05,600 --> 00:57:09,000
Speaker 3: despite the education, your own analysis and all this, in

1236
00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:11,760
Speaker 3: what way was this not all that expected.

1237
00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:12,879
Speaker 1: In your vote and for the administration?

1238
00:57:13,480 --> 00:57:16,920
Speaker 7: So I over indexed, I think on the first term.

1239
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:20,040
Speaker 7: The first term was basically a normy Republican administration.

1240
00:57:20,320 --> 00:57:21,800
Speaker 6: I liked a lot of the policies.

1241
00:57:21,960 --> 00:57:23,360
Speaker 7: I thought they were going to do the things I

1242
00:57:23,400 --> 00:57:29,160
Speaker 7: advocated for on de dei issues. And then they appointed

1243
00:57:29,200 --> 00:57:31,920
Speaker 7: the Supreme Court justices that Trump appointed. That's really some

1244
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:35,640
Speaker 7: of the only pushback that he's getting in a second administration.

1245
00:57:35,640 --> 00:57:39,400
Speaker 6: And the and so I was expecting something of a repeat.

1246
00:57:39,400 --> 00:57:41,200
Speaker 7: I knew that MAGA had changed, I knew that the

1247
00:57:41,200 --> 00:57:44,360
Speaker 7: Trump movement had become something different, but basically I thought

1248
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:46,520
Speaker 7: that we would get that. And then on the night

1249
00:57:46,560 --> 00:57:50,400
Speaker 7: of the election, I was on Destiny's live stream and

1250
00:57:50,480 --> 00:57:53,640
Speaker 7: he was we had we share a negative view of

1251
00:57:53,760 --> 00:57:57,080
Speaker 7: RFK for his vaccine stance and basically everything else that

1252
00:57:57,360 --> 00:58:00,120
Speaker 7: he believes. And he said something along the line of

1253
00:58:00,240 --> 00:58:03,200
Speaker 7: RFK will be HHS Secretary, and I said, no, RFK

1254
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:04,520
Speaker 7: will not be HHS secretary.

1255
00:58:04,560 --> 00:58:05,640
Speaker 6: I actually put some money on it.

1256
00:58:05,680 --> 00:58:09,160
Speaker 7: I put my money where my mouth was, and I said,

1257
00:58:09,200 --> 00:58:11,640
Speaker 7: if he does, I might have said something as explicit

1258
00:58:11,640 --> 00:58:15,000
Speaker 7: as I will have made a mistake. And RFK does

1259
00:58:15,040 --> 00:58:19,360
Speaker 7: get appointed as HHS secretary. People around me are telling

1260
00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:21,280
Speaker 7: me these things, and we talk about some kind of

1261
00:58:21,280 --> 00:58:24,600
Speaker 7: social circles, and everyone I talked to it's kind of.

1262
00:58:24,520 --> 00:58:26,080
Speaker 6: Things like I do. And so they're telling me, don't

1263
00:58:26,080 --> 00:58:26,880
Speaker 6: worry about RFK.

1264
00:58:26,960 --> 00:58:29,360
Speaker 7: They're going to put people around him, Peter Teal, you know,

1265
00:58:29,560 --> 00:58:32,040
Speaker 7: these bioaccelerationists. They're going to be his deputies, and they're

1266
00:58:32,040 --> 00:58:35,000
Speaker 7: going to box him in. Now he's he's going after vaccines.

1267
00:58:35,200 --> 00:58:37,560
Speaker 7: He's doing everything that we thought. And I eventually stopped

1268
00:58:37,600 --> 00:58:41,520
Speaker 7: listening to these people, and you know, and then you

1269
00:58:41,640 --> 00:58:44,920
Speaker 7: had the tariff thing. Now, look, I'm in good company

1270
00:58:45,240 --> 00:58:48,200
Speaker 7: as far as the market goes. I mean, I believe

1271
00:58:48,200 --> 00:58:50,640
Speaker 7: in the wisdom of the of the market. All else equal,

1272
00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:52,160
Speaker 7: it's a good way to go. And people did not

1273
00:58:52,160 --> 00:58:55,560
Speaker 7: think the tariffs would be this bad. Trump was promising

1274
00:58:55,600 --> 00:58:57,960
Speaker 7: ten percent across the board. People say, WHOA, Okay, that's

1275
00:58:58,000 --> 00:59:01,120
Speaker 7: the that's the extreme end of what he might do. Instead,

1276
00:59:01,120 --> 00:59:03,440
Speaker 7: he comes out with this chart, with this, with this

1277
00:59:03,480 --> 00:59:05,880
Speaker 7: formula that makes no sense and has like thirty forty

1278
00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:09,360
Speaker 7: percent on different countries and one hundred something percent on China.

1279
00:59:10,240 --> 00:59:12,880
Speaker 7: And so, you know, I was expecting Republicans to push

1280
00:59:12,920 --> 00:59:14,880
Speaker 7: back a little. There was a little talk that they

1281
00:59:15,000 --> 00:59:18,640
Speaker 7: might not confirm RFK. There was talk that Bill Cassidy

1282
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:20,960
Speaker 7: would vote against him, but they all kind of folded

1283
00:59:21,000 --> 00:59:21,360
Speaker 7: in line.

1284
00:59:21,680 --> 00:59:24,000
Speaker 6: And so, look, I misjudged this.

1285
00:59:24,800 --> 00:59:27,120
Speaker 7: I underestimated just kind of how much of a cult

1286
00:59:27,200 --> 00:59:31,160
Speaker 7: of personality it had become, and how kind of unrestrained

1287
00:59:31,160 --> 00:59:33,880
Speaker 7: he is to indulge in his instincts. And you know,

1288
00:59:34,200 --> 00:59:36,640
Speaker 7: a lot of these mistakes were understandable at the time,

1289
00:59:36,640 --> 00:59:37,880
Speaker 7: but they were mistakes.

1290
00:59:38,040 --> 00:59:38,800
Speaker 6: I saw this wrong.

1291
00:59:39,280 --> 00:59:44,120
Speaker 2: What about the authoritarianism, because I mean, we all lived

1292
00:59:44,120 --> 00:59:46,760
Speaker 2: through January sixth. You were talking earlier about how now

1293
00:59:46,840 --> 00:59:48,760
Speaker 2: it's a litmus test to get in the administration, you

1294
00:59:48,800 --> 00:59:50,280
Speaker 2: have to say not a lead to Trump win in

1295
00:59:50,320 --> 00:59:53,200
Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, all fifty states this time around, all

1296
00:59:53,240 --> 00:59:55,840
Speaker 2: of those sorts of things, like, it's just hard for

1297
00:59:55,880 --> 00:59:58,440
Speaker 2: me to imagine how that could be a surprise. Like

1298
00:59:58,520 --> 01:00:00,800
Speaker 2: we've known this man even before or the president. We've

1299
01:00:00,800 --> 01:00:04,400
Speaker 2: known him for years. He lies about everything. This you know,

1300
01:00:04,720 --> 01:00:08,800
Speaker 2: deep like racial and IQ view of the world has

1301
01:00:08,840 --> 01:00:11,520
Speaker 2: always been embedded in him when he was up, you know,

1302
01:00:11,600 --> 01:00:13,360
Speaker 2: when he was backed into a corner after he did

1303
01:00:13,400 --> 01:00:16,800
Speaker 2: lose in twenty twenty, then his most authoritarian instincts come out.

1304
01:00:17,000 --> 01:00:18,439
Speaker 4: We knew in the interim, and.

1305
01:00:18,360 --> 01:00:20,800
Speaker 2: You were a contributor to Project twenty twenty five, so

1306
01:00:20,880 --> 01:00:22,760
Speaker 2: you were directly involved in some of the planning that

1307
01:00:22,840 --> 01:00:23,760
Speaker 2: was done.

1308
01:00:23,760 --> 01:00:26,440
Speaker 4: To make sure that all of the guardrails.

1309
01:00:25,960 --> 01:00:28,160
Speaker 2: That were in place last time were completely stripped away.

1310
01:00:28,160 --> 01:00:30,040
Speaker 2: We knew the Supreme Court had also given him this

1311
01:00:30,080 --> 01:00:31,400
Speaker 2: sort of like blanket immunity.

1312
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:34,760
Speaker 4: So what about on that piece, like, did.

1313
01:00:34,600 --> 01:00:38,680
Speaker 2: You have any concerns going in about the likely suppression

1314
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:42,720
Speaker 2: of free speech and authoritarian tactics and authoritarian tendencies that

1315
01:00:42,800 --> 01:00:45,120
Speaker 2: you know, even I have to admit have gone even

1316
01:00:45,160 --> 01:00:49,160
Speaker 2: beyond what I expected, and I was pretty alarmist. I

1317
01:00:49,160 --> 01:00:51,360
Speaker 2: think the record will show going into this administration.

1318
01:00:53,080 --> 01:00:56,040
Speaker 7: Yeah, I've always taken January sixth seriously, and I've always

1319
01:00:56,120 --> 01:00:59,960
Speaker 7: taken the idea seriously that Trump did try to over

1320
01:01:00,040 --> 01:01:02,000
Speaker 7: turned the election in twenty twenty And I said, I said,

1321
01:01:02,040 --> 01:01:03,400
Speaker 7: he should have been in jail for it. I mean,

1322
01:01:03,480 --> 01:01:05,760
Speaker 7: I basically was the only person who probably endorsed Trump

1323
01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:07,720
Speaker 7: and thought he should have been and thought he should

1324
01:01:07,720 --> 01:01:09,400
Speaker 7: have been in jail. At the same time, I can

1325
01:01:09,400 --> 01:01:12,160
Speaker 7: look back and say, well, it was a one time thing.

1326
01:01:12,200 --> 01:01:14,560
Speaker 6: He can't run again. I was actually afraid he loses.

1327
01:01:14,600 --> 01:01:16,480
Speaker 7: He's going to be the Republican nominee every year for

1328
01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:18,640
Speaker 7: the rest of our rest of our lives. And well

1329
01:01:18,680 --> 01:01:20,560
Speaker 7: he's still you know, Steve Bannon is going out there

1330
01:01:20,560 --> 01:01:21,920
Speaker 7: saying he's got to run for a third term. So

1331
01:01:21,960 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 7: maybe that maybe that didn't even take care of it.

1332
01:01:24,600 --> 01:01:28,280
Speaker 7: But yeah, you're absolutely you know, you're absolutely right. I

1333
01:01:28,280 --> 01:01:30,400
Speaker 7: mean I think that, Look, there's a lot of things

1334
01:01:30,400 --> 01:01:32,600
Speaker 7: that were totalitarian about the left, a lot of the

1335
01:01:32,640 --> 01:01:35,600
Speaker 7: speech restrictions, a lot of the COVID stuff. I think

1336
01:01:35,640 --> 01:01:37,480
Speaker 7: we still haven't had a full reckoning for what they

1337
01:01:37,480 --> 01:01:39,760
Speaker 7: were doing at the state level, and here in California

1338
01:01:39,800 --> 01:01:43,320
Speaker 7: they were masking students, high school students outside for three

1339
01:01:43,400 --> 01:01:45,640
Speaker 7: years into twenty twenty two. I mean, it was really

1340
01:01:45,760 --> 01:01:48,400
Speaker 7: kind of there was a kind of leftist authoritarianism too,

1341
01:01:48,480 --> 01:01:49,600
Speaker 7: that's worth worrying about.

1342
01:01:49,720 --> 01:01:50,520
Speaker 6: But I agree with.

1343
01:01:50,480 --> 01:01:53,400
Speaker 7: You that Trump is kind of just in his personal

1344
01:01:54,040 --> 01:01:57,360
Speaker 7: just his personal sort of disregard for any kind of

1345
01:01:57,400 --> 01:02:00,400
Speaker 7: concern with truth or constitutional horms.

1346
01:02:00,800 --> 01:02:01,040
Speaker 6: Uh.

1347
01:02:01,080 --> 01:02:05,040
Speaker 7: And so yeah, it's something that's concerning. Look, like you said,

1348
01:02:05,040 --> 01:02:06,520
Speaker 7: we didn't think it was this bad. I don't think

1349
01:02:06,560 --> 01:02:11,320
Speaker 7: anyone said before the election that they're gonna they're going

1350
01:02:11,360 --> 01:02:15,080
Speaker 7: to kick out forward students for writing op bets criticizing Israel.

1351
01:02:15,520 --> 01:02:16,360
Speaker 6: Uh. You know, it's.

1352
01:02:16,240 --> 01:02:20,960
Speaker 4: It's like he said, he's just saying.

1353
01:02:20,720 --> 01:02:23,200
Speaker 1: That they were going to foreign students he did.

1354
01:02:23,360 --> 01:02:26,120
Speaker 2: I mean, that's where I like that piece Actually doesn't

1355
01:02:26,120 --> 01:02:29,200
Speaker 2: surprise me at all, because he did advertise that he

1356
01:02:29,360 --> 01:02:30,480
Speaker 2: was ultimately going to do that.

1357
01:02:30,760 --> 01:02:32,680
Speaker 4: And I agree. You know, I was a critic from the.

1358
01:02:32,720 --> 01:02:37,640
Speaker 2: Left of like the excesses of wokeism and authoritarian tendencies

1359
01:02:37,680 --> 01:02:39,920
Speaker 2: with regard to that. And you know, I think mistakes

1360
01:02:39,960 --> 01:02:42,040
Speaker 2: were made in COVID as well, even though I think

1361
01:02:42,200 --> 01:02:44,200
Speaker 2: especially the beginning, many of those mistakes.

1362
01:02:43,800 --> 01:02:45,959
Speaker 4: Were well meaning and we didn't know what the.

1363
01:02:45,840 --> 01:02:47,800
Speaker 2: Deal was going to be with kids in schools and whatever,

1364
01:02:47,840 --> 01:02:50,080
Speaker 2: and the school closures were probably the biggest.

1365
01:02:49,760 --> 01:02:50,800
Speaker 4: Mistake that were made.

1366
01:02:52,160 --> 01:02:56,160
Speaker 2: People are being kidnapped off the street by masked officers

1367
01:02:56,200 --> 01:02:58,040
Speaker 2: of the state for writing op bets like there's just

1368
01:02:58,080 --> 01:03:02,240
Speaker 2: no equivalent under a Democrat administration, in my opinion, to

1369
01:03:02,320 --> 01:03:04,880
Speaker 2: what we're seeing unfold under Trump is in two point zero.

1370
01:03:05,440 --> 01:03:07,600
Speaker 6: Yeah, and I don't disagree with you at all.

1371
01:03:07,640 --> 01:03:10,160
Speaker 7: I think that you know, my thinking, I'm trying to

1372
01:03:10,200 --> 01:03:11,040
Speaker 7: get back into my.

1373
01:03:10,960 --> 01:03:12,960
Speaker 4: Mind before the election. I appreciate that.

1374
01:03:13,840 --> 01:03:16,000
Speaker 7: Yeah, But at this point, I think you're right. I

1375
01:03:16,040 --> 01:03:19,720
Speaker 7: think I can say that I'm not on the fence anymore.

1376
01:03:20,040 --> 01:03:22,120
Speaker 7: Like that stuff we complained about the left the other

1377
01:03:22,520 --> 01:03:25,480
Speaker 7: you know, last year or two years ago, that happened,

1378
01:03:25,520 --> 01:03:27,480
Speaker 7: it was bad, we can criticize them for it. But

1379
01:03:27,600 --> 01:03:29,600
Speaker 7: this is completely on a different level. And I think

1380
01:03:29,600 --> 01:03:32,840
Speaker 7: the thing we learned here is like character matters a lot.

1381
01:03:33,120 --> 01:03:35,000
Speaker 7: Like what I talked about the Trump movement and it

1382
01:03:35,080 --> 01:03:37,640
Speaker 7: becoming a cult and the base ritual and kind of

1383
01:03:37,640 --> 01:03:40,520
Speaker 7: what I saw personally with these people who were in

1384
01:03:40,600 --> 01:03:42,640
Speaker 7: kind of Trump's orbit and who are going to probably

1385
01:03:42,680 --> 01:03:44,960
Speaker 7: be taking over the government. I should have taken that

1386
01:03:45,040 --> 01:03:47,560
Speaker 7: more seriously. I was just thinking kind of at a

1387
01:03:47,640 --> 01:03:51,560
Speaker 7: level of Okay, there's the Republican Coalition, there's voters, there's

1388
01:03:51,560 --> 01:03:55,120
Speaker 7: the market checking him, there is you know, there is

1389
01:03:55,200 --> 01:03:56,560
Speaker 7: kind of the Republican establishment.

1390
01:03:56,560 --> 01:03:58,000
Speaker 6: There are courts and so forth.

1391
01:03:58,360 --> 01:04:01,080
Speaker 7: I should have been thinking, like what kind of people

1392
01:04:01,240 --> 01:04:03,280
Speaker 7: are going to be staffing the government.

1393
01:04:03,280 --> 01:04:05,120
Speaker 6: And it's not just Trump. It's the fact that.

1394
01:04:05,000 --> 01:04:08,200
Speaker 7: They're all trump Ists and true believing Trump is at

1395
01:04:08,200 --> 01:04:10,880
Speaker 7: this point. And that was the mistake. I think these

1396
01:04:10,920 --> 01:04:14,440
Speaker 7: ideas that like, it's funny because conservatives they have this

1397
01:04:14,520 --> 01:04:17,720
Speaker 7: thing about you know, virtue and leaders and how we've

1398
01:04:17,760 --> 01:04:20,560
Speaker 7: had a decline in morality. And it's not just Chris

1399
01:04:20,640 --> 01:04:22,120
Speaker 7: Ruffo was treating this the other day and I got

1400
01:04:22,120 --> 01:04:24,200
Speaker 7: in exchange with him. It's not just about IQ. You

1401
01:04:24,240 --> 01:04:26,640
Speaker 7: might say there's lead human capital, but there's wisdom and there's.

1402
01:04:26,520 --> 01:04:27,040
Speaker 6: All the like.

1403
01:04:27,640 --> 01:04:30,919
Speaker 7: But Donald Trump. It's just like, but Donald Trump. That's

1404
01:04:30,960 --> 01:04:32,680
Speaker 7: like the only thing you could say to that, And

1405
01:04:32,760 --> 01:04:36,480
Speaker 7: it's kind of insane. There are arguments about character and

1406
01:04:36,680 --> 01:04:39,600
Speaker 7: like you know, civility and the need to pay attention

1407
01:04:39,680 --> 01:04:42,160
Speaker 7: to our inheritance and norms. All that stuff was right,

1408
01:04:42,600 --> 01:04:45,800
Speaker 7: they just became part of a cult of like the

1409
01:04:45,800 --> 01:04:48,720
Speaker 7: man who is the antithesis of all of that. So

1410
01:04:48,760 --> 01:04:50,880
Speaker 7: it's it's a kind of remarkable dynamic.

1411
01:04:51,320 --> 01:04:55,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, so let's return to Elon. We're both very curious

1412
01:04:55,280 --> 01:04:57,360
Speaker 3: about your take on this, Richard. Let's put D three

1413
01:04:57,880 --> 01:05:01,080
Speaker 3: up there on the screen. This is some revelations about

1414
01:05:01,080 --> 01:05:03,480
Speaker 3: Elon and the way that he manages kind of his

1415
01:05:03,600 --> 01:05:06,080
Speaker 3: harem of a young women, some of them when he's

1416
01:05:06,080 --> 01:05:09,920
Speaker 3: met on Twitter, often buying them off and encouraging them

1417
01:05:09,960 --> 01:05:13,000
Speaker 3: to have his children. Apparently there's a non number of

1418
01:05:13,040 --> 01:05:15,200
Speaker 3: what is it fourteen children, but could be as high

1419
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:18,800
Speaker 3: as fifty. We were just curious, how does this fit

1420
01:05:18,840 --> 01:05:23,440
Speaker 3: into your elite human capital model here? Is is this

1421
01:05:23,480 --> 01:05:27,520
Speaker 3: an example of elite human capital over? Well, yeah, you're

1422
01:05:27,520 --> 01:05:30,360
Speaker 3: a pro natalist and this is a high IQ individual

1423
01:05:30,440 --> 01:05:33,400
Speaker 3: and he's very really spreading his seed, just like Jenghis

1424
01:05:33,480 --> 01:05:36,040
Speaker 3: Khan or any other person with absolute power.

1425
01:05:36,160 --> 01:05:38,760
Speaker 1: So what do you make this look?

1426
01:05:39,040 --> 01:05:41,480
Speaker 6: Yeah, you're right on the surface.

1427
01:05:41,680 --> 01:05:43,400
Speaker 7: You might say, well, if you're a natalist and you

1428
01:05:43,480 --> 01:05:46,240
Speaker 7: leave at IQ God, and you know, I don't judge

1429
01:05:46,280 --> 01:05:47,800
Speaker 7: these things. If people want to have a lot of children,

1430
01:05:47,840 --> 01:05:49,960
Speaker 7: I generally think that's a great thing. I think that

1431
01:05:50,080 --> 01:05:52,160
Speaker 7: what we've seen is the kind of person who thinks

1432
01:05:52,240 --> 01:05:54,280
Speaker 7: like this, I'm just going to set spread my seed

1433
01:05:54,280 --> 01:05:57,160
Speaker 7: to the greatest extent possible. There there's somebody like Genghis

1434
01:05:57,200 --> 01:06:00,000
Speaker 7: Khan proNT to violence, or there's someone like Elon Muss

1435
01:06:00,080 --> 01:06:03,000
Speaker 7: who just kind of doesn't really have a moral sense.

1436
01:06:03,640 --> 01:06:05,360
Speaker 7: So I think this is the problem with you know,

1437
01:06:05,440 --> 01:06:07,600
Speaker 7: a lot of ideas might sound good in theory, but

1438
01:06:07,680 --> 01:06:09,160
Speaker 7: in practice you have to kind of look at the

1439
01:06:09,200 --> 01:06:10,880
Speaker 7: kinds of people who are attracted to them and look

1440
01:06:10,880 --> 01:06:13,040
Speaker 7: at how these things work out in practice. And I

1441
01:06:13,040 --> 01:06:15,720
Speaker 7: think it's probably not a coincidence that the West had

1442
01:06:15,960 --> 01:06:18,720
Speaker 7: a Christianity and a norm of monogamy and didn't think

1443
01:06:18,760 --> 01:06:21,600
Speaker 7: like this and ended up creating the modern world.

1444
01:06:21,680 --> 01:06:21,880
Speaker 8: Yeah.

1445
01:06:22,080 --> 01:06:25,520
Speaker 7: I think it's a lesson here about taking starting with

1446
01:06:25,560 --> 01:06:28,480
Speaker 7: IQ natalism and not kind of thinking about character and

1447
01:06:28,760 --> 01:06:31,480
Speaker 7: what happens when you try to apply these ideas in

1448
01:06:31,480 --> 01:06:32,320
Speaker 7: a person's life.

1449
01:06:32,560 --> 01:06:33,920
Speaker 4: Yeah. Well, and it's not only that.

1450
01:06:34,000 --> 01:06:36,439
Speaker 2: I mean he explicitly, according to the article, has told

1451
01:06:36,480 --> 01:06:39,960
Speaker 2: people that he's worried about the high birth rates in

1452
01:06:40,000 --> 01:06:43,840
Speaker 2: developing countries and so he wants to combat that with

1453
01:06:43,960 --> 01:06:47,880
Speaker 2: his legion of you know, his high IQ whatever.

1454
01:06:47,600 --> 01:06:48,840
Speaker 4: Before the apocalypse.

1455
01:06:49,240 --> 01:06:52,400
Speaker 2: So I mean there's also these like directly, I would

1456
01:06:52,520 --> 01:06:56,760
Speaker 2: again say, like eugenics inspired ideas that come out here.

1457
01:06:56,840 --> 01:06:59,840
Speaker 2: So I don't know that it's he doesn't have an

1458
01:06:59,880 --> 01:07:02,360
Speaker 2: eye ideology or I think you said moral compass or

1459
01:07:02,560 --> 01:07:06,440
Speaker 2: moral I'm not sure the language that you use. But no,

1460
01:07:06,640 --> 01:07:09,240
Speaker 2: I think he does have an ideology, and it's a

1461
01:07:09,560 --> 01:07:10,479
Speaker 2: really evil one.

1462
01:07:12,000 --> 01:07:14,160
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think he does have an ideology. I think

1463
01:07:14,160 --> 01:07:17,880
Speaker 7: he has kind of instincts and ideas about the world. Now,

1464
01:07:18,160 --> 01:07:20,080
Speaker 7: to be fair to him, I've never seen him say

1465
01:07:20,120 --> 01:07:23,000
Speaker 7: we've got to limit the birth rate in developing countries

1466
01:07:23,240 --> 01:07:26,880
Speaker 7: or anything like that. But yeah, I think that his

1467
01:07:27,120 --> 01:07:31,760
Speaker 7: entire idea of you know, it's weird because like you

1468
01:07:31,800 --> 01:07:33,919
Speaker 7: would think, well, somebody who's kind of an IQ snob,

1469
01:07:33,960 --> 01:07:35,600
Speaker 7: you might be like me, you might look down on

1470
01:07:35,680 --> 01:07:38,400
Speaker 7: kind of the conservative influencer space. But no, I mean

1471
01:07:38,400 --> 01:07:41,520
Speaker 7: he will denounce the entire class of educated people and

1472
01:07:41,560 --> 01:07:43,880
Speaker 7: people who know anything about the world, but then love

1473
01:07:43,920 --> 01:07:46,600
Speaker 7: these people who are less intelligent, less honest because they

1474
01:07:46,600 --> 01:07:49,520
Speaker 7: all worship him. Right, So there's this ideology, but at

1475
01:07:49,520 --> 01:07:51,640
Speaker 7: the same time, it's just kind of a classic kind

1476
01:07:51,640 --> 01:07:56,760
Speaker 7: of selfishness, big man behavior, and that's not socially conducive.

1477
01:07:56,400 --> 01:07:57,040
Speaker 6: To anything good.

1478
01:07:57,360 --> 01:08:01,600
Speaker 2: So how would you describe your political ideology now, Richard? Like,

1479
01:08:02,240 --> 01:08:04,120
Speaker 2: where do you kind of fit? How can people make

1480
01:08:04,160 --> 01:08:04,600
Speaker 2: sense of you.

1481
01:08:05,920 --> 01:08:08,080
Speaker 7: I you know, the funny thing is, for you know,

1482
01:08:08,120 --> 01:08:10,040
Speaker 7: for all the things I've written and all the little

1483
01:08:10,040 --> 01:08:13,160
Speaker 7: bit of trolling I do online, I'm a pretty pretty

1484
01:08:13,160 --> 01:08:15,000
Speaker 7: normy guy. I mean, the people I talk to these

1485
01:08:15,080 --> 01:08:19,320
Speaker 7: days are like, you know, scholars at AI or you know, Cato,

1486
01:08:19,560 --> 01:08:22,400
Speaker 7: just like normal kind of libertarians who are concerned about

1487
01:08:22,400 --> 01:08:25,160
Speaker 7: norms and think the American experiment has been a good

1488
01:08:25,160 --> 01:08:27,080
Speaker 7: thing and we should try to preserve it, and caring

1489
01:08:27,120 --> 01:08:29,400
Speaker 7: about the well functioning institutions.

1490
01:08:29,560 --> 01:08:32,120
Speaker 6: So I'm a libertarianish classical liberal.

1491
01:08:32,439 --> 01:08:35,880
Speaker 7: For all the kind of you know, kind of eccentricities

1492
01:08:35,920 --> 01:08:37,680
Speaker 7: that you see and the things I've written and the

1493
01:08:37,720 --> 01:08:41,240
Speaker 7: things I still write today, my politics underneath it all

1494
01:08:41,240 --> 01:08:42,439
Speaker 7: are actually sort of normal.

1495
01:08:42,560 --> 01:08:45,439
Speaker 2: All right, Well, I will I will say just you know,

1496
01:08:46,560 --> 01:08:49,879
Speaker 2: I also have changed my mind on certain things because

1497
01:08:50,040 --> 01:08:52,840
Speaker 2: of this Trump administration. And one of them is something

1498
01:08:52,880 --> 01:08:55,000
Speaker 2: that you touched on, which is just how much character

1499
01:08:55,040 --> 01:08:58,120
Speaker 2: does matter? And you know, I think the liberals were

1500
01:08:58,240 --> 01:09:01,600
Speaker 2: right on certain aspects of that. I previously would have

1501
01:09:01,600 --> 01:09:03,719
Speaker 2: been like, ah, who cares about the norms and they're

1502
01:09:03,760 --> 01:09:06,800
Speaker 2: so obsessed with like these different things about his personality

1503
01:09:06,920 --> 01:09:07,320
Speaker 2: or whatever.

1504
01:09:08,160 --> 01:09:09,000
Speaker 4: No, I think you're right.

1505
01:09:09,080 --> 01:09:12,120
Speaker 2: I think those things mattered a lot more than I

1506
01:09:12,160 --> 01:09:17,160
Speaker 2: gave them credit for mattering. And now that his personality

1507
01:09:17,400 --> 01:09:20,840
Speaker 2: traits have not only taken over the government, but I mean,

1508
01:09:20,840 --> 01:09:24,200
Speaker 2: these are it's the fish does rot from the head down,

1509
01:09:24,439 --> 01:09:26,720
Speaker 2: and that has to do not just with this administration,

1510
01:09:26,760 --> 01:09:28,680
Speaker 2: but with the whole country. And when you see the

1511
01:09:28,680 --> 01:09:31,519
Speaker 2: most powerful person in the country, in the world who

1512
01:09:31,800 --> 01:09:34,040
Speaker 2: is narcissistic, utterly.

1513
01:09:33,760 --> 01:09:36,719
Speaker 4: Shameless, lies, is cruel, etc.

1514
01:09:37,120 --> 01:09:39,719
Speaker 2: Of course you're going to have people think that that's

1515
01:09:39,800 --> 01:09:42,080
Speaker 2: the way to succeed, that those are traits that are

1516
01:09:42,080 --> 01:09:45,880
Speaker 2: worthy of emulation. And so I also, you know, just

1517
01:09:46,080 --> 01:09:49,320
Speaker 2: you know, since you're talking about your evolution and your thought,

1518
01:09:49,800 --> 01:09:52,280
Speaker 2: I also have evolved in the way that I think

1519
01:09:52,320 --> 01:09:56,080
Speaker 2: about these things and have changed my mind about how

1520
01:09:56,080 --> 01:09:58,519
Speaker 2: important those things. In certain way, It's like it's made

1521
01:09:58,560 --> 01:10:02,000
Speaker 2: me sort of more conservative in that way of like, oh,

1522
01:10:02,120 --> 01:10:04,280
Speaker 2: you know what, actually the character of our leaders, like

1523
01:10:04,320 --> 01:10:08,360
Speaker 2: these squishy traits and these norms, they actually did kind

1524
01:10:08,360 --> 01:10:09,880
Speaker 2: of matter and I want them back.

1525
01:10:10,439 --> 01:10:13,080
Speaker 1: See it's interesting. I would almost do a reverse.

1526
01:10:13,160 --> 01:10:15,360
Speaker 3: I think, Richard, what you've convinced me most of all

1527
01:10:15,680 --> 01:10:20,240
Speaker 3: is that competence and elite human capital matters more than anything,

1528
01:10:20,880 --> 01:10:23,720
Speaker 3: and that, as you pointed out, let's say with the

1529
01:10:23,880 --> 01:10:26,960
Speaker 3: JD Van's tweet, right, you and I both know that

1530
01:10:26,960 --> 01:10:30,600
Speaker 3: that is a straw man argument about deportation. That's not

1531
01:10:30,760 --> 01:10:33,880
Speaker 3: about Abrago, Garcia and El Salvador in prison and defying

1532
01:10:33,880 --> 01:10:37,000
Speaker 3: a social Supreme Court order. But that is one where

1533
01:10:37,200 --> 01:10:41,600
Speaker 3: somebody who has been through this process cannot debase themselves

1534
01:10:41,800 --> 01:10:44,639
Speaker 3: to actually argue at the level of drump for lack

1535
01:10:44,640 --> 01:10:46,240
Speaker 3: of a better word, to be like, no, this is

1536
01:10:46,240 --> 01:10:50,000
Speaker 3: good and we're also sending American citizens. And so I mean, Richard,

1537
01:10:50,040 --> 01:10:52,000
Speaker 3: you've been through many things. But I'll say this, man,

1538
01:10:52,000 --> 01:10:54,320
Speaker 3: I've been reading you for probably five straight years. When's

1539
01:10:54,360 --> 01:10:56,519
Speaker 3: the first time we talked twenty twenty, I want to say,

1540
01:10:56,600 --> 01:10:58,320
Speaker 3: when you put out your CSPI study.

1541
01:10:58,360 --> 01:11:00,360
Speaker 6: Yeah, probably the report on the right.

1542
01:11:01,640 --> 01:11:03,879
Speaker 3: You were one of the first people who ever truly

1543
01:11:04,120 --> 01:11:06,519
Speaker 3: caused me to change my mind, and you have caused

1544
01:11:06,520 --> 01:11:08,320
Speaker 3: me to change my mind many of the time since.

1545
01:11:08,360 --> 01:11:10,040
Speaker 3: So we'll have a link down the description to yourself

1546
01:11:10,040 --> 01:11:12,720
Speaker 3: stack and I will always read you.

1547
01:11:12,720 --> 01:11:13,720
Speaker 1: You're a fascinating man.

1548
01:11:14,400 --> 01:11:15,320
Speaker 6: Well, thank you very much.

1549
01:11:15,680 --> 01:11:18,360
Speaker 2: I really appreciate that, appreciate the discussion Richard, thank you,

1550
01:11:19,200 --> 01:11:27,439
Speaker 2: thank you. So guys, in terms of Doge's supposed aspirations

1551
01:11:27,479 --> 01:11:30,320
Speaker 2: as a cost cutting exercise, we can officially now.

1552
01:11:30,200 --> 01:11:31,559
Speaker 4: Say it has failed.

1553
01:11:32,240 --> 01:11:34,559
Speaker 2: Elon has gone from claiming he was going to cut

1554
01:11:34,600 --> 01:11:37,880
Speaker 2: two trillion dollars out of the federal debt budget to

1555
01:11:38,680 --> 01:11:43,400
Speaker 2: now meekly at a cabinet meeting massively downgrading that estimate.

1556
01:11:43,479 --> 01:11:45,719
Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and take a listen to Elon himself.

1557
01:11:45,960 --> 01:11:49,160
Speaker 8: How much do you think we can rip out of

1558
01:11:49,200 --> 01:11:54,360
Speaker 8: this wasted six point five trillion dollar harvest Biden budget?

1559
01:11:55,040 --> 01:11:57,120
Speaker 9: Well, I think we can do at least two trillion.

1560
01:11:57,600 --> 01:12:00,240
Speaker 6: Yeah.

1561
01:12:00,400 --> 01:12:04,600
Speaker 9: Well, thanks to your fantastic leadership, this amazing cabinet, and

1562
01:12:04,760 --> 01:12:07,479
Speaker 9: the very talented dog team, I'm excited to announce that

1563
01:12:08,120 --> 01:12:11,720
Speaker 9: we anticipate savings in FY twenty six from reduction of

1564
01:12:11,760 --> 01:12:15,240
Speaker 9: waste and brought by one hundred and fifty billion dollars.

1565
01:12:15,280 --> 01:12:18,160
Speaker 9: And I mean, and some of it is just absurd,

1566
01:12:18,360 --> 01:12:20,360
Speaker 9: like people getting unemployment insurance.

1567
01:12:20,360 --> 01:12:21,639
Speaker 6: You haven't been born yet.

1568
01:12:21,840 --> 01:12:24,200
Speaker 9: I mean, I think anyone can appreciate whether, I mean,

1569
01:12:24,240 --> 01:12:26,439
Speaker 9: come on, that's just crazy.

1570
01:12:26,880 --> 01:12:29,519
Speaker 2: So from two trillion to one hundred and fifty billion,

1571
01:12:29,560 --> 01:12:31,599
Speaker 2: and even that is just not even true. To put

1572
01:12:31,600 --> 01:12:33,439
Speaker 2: this up on the screen from the New York Times,

1573
01:12:34,000 --> 01:12:36,879
Speaker 2: they dug in to what they're even actually claiming.

1574
01:12:36,920 --> 01:12:38,160
Speaker 4: The headline is DOGE.

1575
01:12:37,880 --> 01:12:40,839
Speaker 2: Is far short of its goal and still overstating its progress.

1576
01:12:40,880 --> 01:12:43,280
Speaker 2: Elon Musk now says this group will produce only fifteen

1577
01:12:43,320 --> 01:12:46,719
Speaker 2: percent of the savings it promised, but even that estimate

1578
01:12:46,840 --> 01:12:50,160
Speaker 2: is inflated with errors. And in particular, they went and

1579
01:12:50,760 --> 01:12:53,880
Speaker 2: looked at some of the top cost savings here that

1580
01:12:53,960 --> 01:12:57,160
Speaker 2: they had claimed and it still was inaccurate, or they

1581
01:12:57,160 --> 01:13:01,600
Speaker 2: were double counting, or it's just you know, it's just preposterous.

1582
01:13:01,640 --> 01:13:04,240
Speaker 2: And not to mention that some of the things that

1583
01:13:04,280 --> 01:13:09,160
Speaker 2: they're cutting are actually going to make the government more expensive. So,

1584
01:13:09,240 --> 01:13:13,360
Speaker 2: for example, the massive cuts at the IRS are going

1585
01:13:13,439 --> 01:13:16,240
Speaker 2: to make the IRS less able to do his job

1586
01:13:16,280 --> 01:13:19,799
Speaker 2: of collecting tax revenue, which means that the budget deficit

1587
01:13:19,880 --> 01:13:23,960
Speaker 2: is going to get even larger. So layer on top

1588
01:13:24,000 --> 01:13:28,120
Speaker 2: of that saga the political failure in Wisconsin. He seems

1589
01:13:28,160 --> 01:13:32,240
Speaker 2: to have diminished power and sway within the Trump administration.

1590
01:13:33,040 --> 01:13:34,559
Speaker 4: But on the other hand, you know.

1591
01:13:34,560 --> 01:13:38,439
Speaker 2: I while those aspects have failed, DOG has been very

1592
01:13:38,479 --> 01:13:42,439
Speaker 2: successful at making the federal government, destroying certain key elements

1593
01:13:42,439 --> 01:13:43,400
Speaker 2: of the federal government.

1594
01:13:43,600 --> 01:13:44,960
Speaker 4: And I've always said that that.

1595
01:13:45,080 --> 01:13:48,800
Speaker 2: Was really more of the actual goal than any sort

1596
01:13:48,840 --> 01:13:52,479
Speaker 2: of budget deficit, fiscal hawk type of stuff, and that's

1597
01:13:52,840 --> 01:13:55,120
Speaker 2: pretty clear from the beginning of what they were actually

1598
01:13:55,160 --> 01:13:56,000
Speaker 2: trying to accomplish.

1599
01:13:55,960 --> 01:13:57,800
Speaker 1: I'm not so sure I think that it was.

1600
01:13:58,320 --> 01:14:01,479
Speaker 3: The initial goal was to actually do allegedly what they

1601
01:14:01,520 --> 01:14:04,559
Speaker 3: wanted to do, and then it became eventually convenient and

1602
01:14:04,640 --> 01:14:08,320
Speaker 3: acknowledged internally that that was impossible, and the longer that

1603
01:14:08,360 --> 01:14:10,679
Speaker 3: the chaos and all of that began to happen, then yes,

1604
01:14:11,000 --> 01:14:13,879
Speaker 3: it became like destruction in and of the end for itself,

1605
01:14:13,960 --> 01:14:17,439
Speaker 3: as in I wouldn't underestimate like genuine stupidity. This comes

1606
01:14:17,439 --> 01:14:20,400
Speaker 3: off of our discussion with Richard, and one of the

1607
01:14:20,439 --> 01:14:22,960
Speaker 3: things that I as well, you know, talking about Richard,

1608
01:14:23,360 --> 01:14:25,920
Speaker 3: is what the hypocrisy on all of this is what

1609
01:14:26,000 --> 01:14:29,160
Speaker 3: actually drives me the craziest, because look, even if you

1610
01:14:29,200 --> 01:14:31,400
Speaker 3: believe as you do, it was a cynical effort from

1611
01:14:31,479 --> 01:14:34,479
Speaker 3: the beginning, there are many people who actually do believe

1612
01:14:34,520 --> 01:14:35,439
Speaker 3: in reducing government.

1613
01:14:35,560 --> 01:14:35,760
Speaker 1: Right.

1614
01:14:36,000 --> 01:14:38,880
Speaker 3: As I said initially before the election, one of the

1615
01:14:38,880 --> 01:14:41,439
Speaker 3: most popular bro elements that I would often hear about

1616
01:14:41,439 --> 01:14:43,200
Speaker 3: from Trump was does. It was one of the things

1617
01:14:43,200 --> 01:14:46,120
Speaker 3: people were most excited about. Do not underestimate this. People

1618
01:14:46,280 --> 01:14:49,799
Speaker 3: hate the government. Yes, you know, they may like Noah

1619
01:14:49,920 --> 01:14:52,840
Speaker 3: or whatever, but like broadly people's interaction. I mean, who

1620
01:14:52,880 --> 01:14:55,040
Speaker 3: all just paid their taxes right, it's a pain in

1621
01:14:55,080 --> 01:14:57,840
Speaker 3: the ass or the E file service or whatever, which

1622
01:14:57,920 --> 01:14:59,559
Speaker 3: by the way, does took away to talk about them

1623
01:14:59,560 --> 01:15:03,400
Speaker 3: in a second. My point broadly is that the animus

1624
01:15:03,760 --> 01:15:06,879
Speaker 3: and behind that was popular. I still think it's actually

1625
01:15:06,960 --> 01:15:10,040
Speaker 3: quite popular, although maybe less so now that it's happened

1626
01:15:10,040 --> 01:15:13,120
Speaker 3: with Doge. But the problem is is that for you

1627
01:15:13,280 --> 01:15:21,160
Speaker 3: exploit that in then not only reduction non permanence stupidly chaotically,

1628
01:15:21,360 --> 01:15:23,920
Speaker 3: and then even if you take their initial numbers now

1629
01:15:24,320 --> 01:15:26,280
Speaker 3: at face value, put the next one please up on

1630
01:15:26,280 --> 01:15:29,360
Speaker 3: the screen, is that Trump and Hegseth are promising a

1631
01:15:29,439 --> 01:15:33,519
Speaker 3: one trillion dollar Pentagon budget, which would mean that you

1632
01:15:33,560 --> 01:15:36,840
Speaker 3: would actually take all of your new alleged savings and

1633
01:15:36,880 --> 01:15:38,559
Speaker 3: you would then just give it to the Pentagon.

1634
01:15:39,160 --> 01:15:42,720
Speaker 1: And so what have we actually accomplished?

1635
01:15:43,160 --> 01:15:47,760
Speaker 3: Noah has reduced capacity, social security phone lines are there.

1636
01:15:48,040 --> 01:15:52,840
Speaker 3: The entire team responsible for green lighting nuclear energy permits

1637
01:15:53,640 --> 01:15:55,920
Speaker 3: have been fired or are trying to be brought back

1638
01:15:56,000 --> 01:15:59,200
Speaker 3: right now, My friends in the nuclear regulatory space are

1639
01:15:59,439 --> 01:16:01,520
Speaker 3: freaking out about dos.

1640
01:16:01,680 --> 01:16:03,519
Speaker 1: Can we all didn't we all vote for that?

1641
01:16:03,680 --> 01:16:08,240
Speaker 3: I think so about abundant energy. And then so meanwhile,

1642
01:16:08,800 --> 01:16:11,360
Speaker 3: we're also doing a trillion dollar Pentagon budget. And then

1643
01:16:11,439 --> 01:16:15,240
Speaker 3: let's zoom out to the Congress. The US Congress, Republican

1644
01:16:15,320 --> 01:16:17,799
Speaker 3: led Congress, wants to cut a trillion dollars in spending

1645
01:16:18,200 --> 01:16:20,879
Speaker 3: and they want to increase the budget for the Pentagon.

1646
01:16:21,439 --> 01:16:25,400
Speaker 3: That's not possible, not possible without cutting massive social services.

1647
01:16:25,520 --> 01:16:27,960
Speaker 3: You could even do discretionary what you could wipe out

1648
01:16:27,960 --> 01:16:30,439
Speaker 3: the entire thing. You couldn't wipe out a trillion dollars.

1649
01:16:30,280 --> 01:16:31,880
Speaker 1: Its basic math.

1650
01:16:32,120 --> 01:16:33,960
Speaker 3: If you don't believe me, go play with chet, GPT

1651
01:16:34,280 --> 01:16:36,280
Speaker 3: or any of these AI thinks. Say cut one trillion

1652
01:16:36,320 --> 01:16:39,120
Speaker 3: dollars from the budget, don't touch any social services or

1653
01:16:39,160 --> 01:16:41,320
Speaker 3: the Pentagon. See how easy it is to get there.

1654
01:16:41,360 --> 01:16:41,640
Speaker 1: It's not.

1655
01:16:41,960 --> 01:16:46,160
Speaker 3: Look this is simple balance sheet arithmetic. And so when

1656
01:16:46,200 --> 01:16:49,320
Speaker 3: you look at all of that, the Republican Congress has

1657
01:16:49,320 --> 01:16:51,440
Speaker 3: decided not to increase taxes.

1658
01:16:51,280 --> 01:16:53,760
Speaker 1: On anyone making over one million dollars per year.

1659
01:16:53,960 --> 01:16:56,719
Speaker 3: They've decided to extend the vast majority of the TCGAA

1660
01:16:56,840 --> 01:16:59,680
Speaker 3: tax cuts, they want to attack manufacturing tax credits. Not

1661
01:16:59,760 --> 01:17:02,240
Speaker 3: a single thing is in line with each other. And

1662
01:17:02,280 --> 01:17:05,000
Speaker 3: I think that is what is that is what is

1663
01:17:05,040 --> 01:17:08,599
Speaker 3: now being coming clear to the American people over time.

1664
01:17:08,920 --> 01:17:10,840
Speaker 3: I think they genuinely did give Doze and all that

1665
01:17:10,880 --> 01:17:13,480
Speaker 3: a lot of runway. Like I said, do not underestimate

1666
01:17:13,479 --> 01:17:13,880
Speaker 3: how much.

1667
01:17:13,760 --> 01:17:16,840
Speaker 1: People hate the government. You really cannot underestimate that.

1668
01:17:16,880 --> 01:17:18,920
Speaker 3: But it has been what is it now, how many

1669
01:17:19,000 --> 01:17:22,479
Speaker 3: days of the Trump administration? Eighty something. We're coming up

1670
01:17:22,520 --> 01:17:25,240
Speaker 3: on the end of the one hundred days, the story

1671
01:17:25,240 --> 01:17:26,880
Speaker 3: of the worst hundred this is going to be a

1672
01:17:26,920 --> 01:17:30,080
Speaker 3: crazy book. And then Oxford History from one hundred years

1673
01:17:30,080 --> 01:17:32,040
Speaker 3: from now, the story of the first hundred days from

1674
01:17:32,080 --> 01:17:36,639
Speaker 3: the Trump administration will be Doge, tariffs and El.

1675
01:17:36,560 --> 01:17:38,439
Speaker 1: Salvador, which is nuts.

1676
01:17:38,680 --> 01:17:41,479
Speaker 3: That is not what you would want if you want

1677
01:17:41,479 --> 01:17:46,479
Speaker 3: a successful administration, you are effectively hanging yourself for the

1678
01:17:46,920 --> 01:17:50,920
Speaker 3: duration of your presidency. You had a left which has

1679
01:17:51,000 --> 01:17:55,080
Speaker 3: never been more moralized in modern history or unpopular, and

1680
01:17:55,120 --> 01:17:59,080
Speaker 3: then you reinvigorated it for no reason or discernible impact

1681
01:17:59,400 --> 01:18:00,160
Speaker 3: in the future.

1682
01:18:00,600 --> 01:18:02,960
Speaker 1: I mean, look, I am famously wrong and could be.

1683
01:18:03,439 --> 01:18:05,520
Speaker 1: He could be massively popular.

1684
01:18:05,280 --> 01:18:07,880
Speaker 3: And JD could be cruising to twenty twenty eight, but

1685
01:18:08,479 --> 01:18:10,960
Speaker 3: a lot of shit would have happened in the interim.

1686
01:18:11,320 --> 01:18:13,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's look, let's be honest too. Three years is

1687
01:18:13,160 --> 01:18:15,000
Speaker 1: a long time, all right, Nobody would have predicted that

1688
01:18:15,040 --> 01:18:16,240
Speaker 1: we're here today, right.

1689
01:18:16,520 --> 01:18:19,160
Speaker 3: Vive shifted to quote unquote a lot more than people

1690
01:18:19,200 --> 01:18:22,559
Speaker 3: would have thought, so it can shift back, it easily, could.

1691
01:18:22,880 --> 01:18:25,080
Speaker 1: I don't particularly see it. But I didn't see this either.

1692
01:18:25,200 --> 01:18:30,440
Speaker 2: Well, and here's the thing with Doge and with the tariffs,

1693
01:18:30,720 --> 01:18:34,120
Speaker 2: the real negative impacts of those things have not yet

1694
01:18:34,160 --> 01:18:34,840
Speaker 2: even hit.

1695
01:18:35,200 --> 01:18:36,320
Speaker 1: Well, they will, they have not.

1696
01:18:36,360 --> 01:18:37,479
Speaker 4: Yet even hit.

1697
01:18:38,160 --> 01:18:40,360
Speaker 2: And so I mean, this is why I I just

1698
01:18:40,400 --> 01:18:43,799
Speaker 2: don't believe Doge was ever really about cost cutting because

1699
01:18:43,960 --> 01:18:45,960
Speaker 2: it is just basically, I mean, we were saying from

1700
01:18:45,960 --> 01:18:48,760
Speaker 2: the very beginning, right, even if you cut every single

1701
01:18:48,840 --> 01:18:51,360
Speaker 2: federal government worker, you're not saving a significant percent of

1702
01:18:51,400 --> 01:18:55,320
Speaker 2: the federal budget. And a lot of not all of,

1703
01:18:55,400 --> 01:18:57,800
Speaker 2: but a lot of the playbook from Doge has also

1704
01:18:57,920 --> 01:19:01,439
Speaker 2: followed from Project twenty twenty five. So it's not like

1705
01:19:01,479 --> 01:19:04,559
Speaker 2: there wasn't some level of a concerted plan here. And

1706
01:19:04,640 --> 01:19:08,360
Speaker 2: with Elon himself, like obviously he's this huge federal government contractor,

1707
01:19:08,800 --> 01:19:12,360
Speaker 2: and he hates that these government agencies were daring to

1708
01:19:12,400 --> 01:19:15,240
Speaker 2: regulate his businesses. They're not going to be doing that

1709
01:19:15,320 --> 01:19:19,479
Speaker 2: anytime soon. The level the amount that they have cut

1710
01:19:19,600 --> 01:19:23,639
Speaker 2: enforcement of what white collar crime is truly insane. And

1711
01:19:23,760 --> 01:19:27,519
Speaker 2: that comes from the you know, the National Labor Relations Board,

1712
01:19:27,600 --> 01:19:31,839
Speaker 2: which governs obviously labor relations, so that's gutted and cannot function.

1713
01:19:32,080 --> 01:19:34,040
Speaker 2: You had the cpp B, which is like the anti

1714
01:19:34,080 --> 01:19:37,519
Speaker 2: scam Bureau that helps consumers who've been scammed by you know,

1715
01:19:37,640 --> 01:19:40,800
Speaker 2: big business or small business or any business that's been

1716
01:19:40,840 --> 01:19:43,040
Speaker 2: completely gutted, and they were the ones who were set

1717
01:19:43,080 --> 01:19:46,960
Speaker 2: up to regulate x if X moves into as they're

1718
01:19:47,000 --> 01:19:49,720
Speaker 2: planning they have to deal with visa into payment processing.

1719
01:19:50,040 --> 01:19:50,240
Speaker 4: You know.

1720
01:19:50,320 --> 01:19:55,800
Speaker 2: He went after the particular board within the National Transportation

1721
01:19:55,920 --> 01:20:00,760
Speaker 2: Agency that was regulating automated vehicles, something that he was

1722
01:20:00,800 --> 01:20:03,080
Speaker 2: hating and you know, was bothering him with regard to

1723
01:20:03,080 --> 01:20:07,880
Speaker 2: his tesla's. So in those ways he got what he wanted. Now,

1724
01:20:08,040 --> 01:20:12,639
Speaker 2: I do think that the probably more maximalist original goals

1725
01:20:13,200 --> 01:20:16,400
Speaker 2: of effectively and this actually this came out in the

1726
01:20:16,479 --> 01:20:19,120
Speaker 2: article about him and his Harem too. He said, well,

1727
01:20:19,160 --> 01:20:22,479
Speaker 2: I can't be president but I can make Trump be precedent,

1728
01:20:22,520 --> 01:20:25,080
Speaker 2: with the implication being like, oh, but I'll basically be

1729
01:20:25,160 --> 01:20:26,360
Speaker 2: the one running the show.

1730
01:20:26,479 --> 01:20:29,559
Speaker 4: Like the more maximust goals of I'm just.

1731
01:20:29,520 --> 01:20:32,360
Speaker 2: Going to be able to effectively take all of the

1732
01:20:32,400 --> 01:20:37,680
Speaker 2: government's money for my SpaceX Mars boondoggle dream project. I

1733
01:20:37,680 --> 01:20:41,080
Speaker 2: think that is not going to come to fruition. And

1734
01:20:41,640 --> 01:20:44,519
Speaker 2: I do think that the fact that he has now

1735
01:20:44,560 --> 01:20:49,080
Speaker 2: been politically hobbled by going so hard in Wisconsin, going

1736
01:20:49,120 --> 01:20:51,960
Speaker 2: all in in Wisconsin and then getting you know, smacked

1737
01:20:52,000 --> 01:20:54,479
Speaker 2: down with a double digit loss, I think that has

1738
01:20:54,520 --> 01:20:58,800
Speaker 2: probably significantly diminished his political power within Trump's fear. As

1739
01:20:59,160 --> 01:21:02,200
Speaker 2: you know, all of the these guys are optics, branding people.

1740
01:21:02,560 --> 01:21:04,080
Speaker 4: So even that image I showed you of.

1741
01:21:04,080 --> 01:21:07,320
Speaker 2: Him like seated at the table at the cabinet meeting

1742
01:21:07,400 --> 01:21:09,479
Speaker 2: he wasn't even invited to, He just like showed up

1743
01:21:09,520 --> 01:21:13,080
Speaker 2: for as one of many around the table, is so

1744
01:21:13,400 --> 01:21:16,920
Speaker 2: different compared that image to the image of him standing

1745
01:21:17,520 --> 01:21:21,000
Speaker 2: hovering over Trump, who was at the resolute desk with

1746
01:21:21,080 --> 01:21:23,600
Speaker 2: his kid running around and web these bars on the desk.

1747
01:21:23,360 --> 01:21:24,639
Speaker 1: And what askrit is still there?

1748
01:21:24,680 --> 01:21:27,200
Speaker 3: By the way, I'll never understand that kid well, So

1749
01:21:27,200 --> 01:21:28,040
Speaker 3: you've got fourteen kids.

1750
01:21:28,080 --> 01:21:28,599
Speaker 1: Why that one?

1751
01:21:28,760 --> 01:21:30,479
Speaker 3: I mean, not to be mean, but like's not kind

1752
01:21:30,479 --> 01:21:33,080
Speaker 3: of favoritism for real though, for sure, yeah.

1753
01:21:32,920 --> 01:21:35,160
Speaker 2: For sure, But putting the kid the dynamics with the

1754
01:21:35,200 --> 01:21:38,320
Speaker 2: kids aside, there's a whole other conversation like that. The

1755
01:21:38,400 --> 01:21:41,599
Speaker 2: imagery of him sort of standing lording over Trump and

1756
01:21:41,640 --> 01:21:44,960
Speaker 2: doing things and then asking permission later and Trump giving

1757
01:21:45,040 --> 01:21:48,320
Speaker 2: him all sorts of runway is a is a massive

1758
01:21:48,360 --> 01:21:52,040
Speaker 2: contrast from him sitting one of many around the cabinet,

1759
01:21:52,240 --> 01:21:55,519
Speaker 2: around that table and you know, having to meekly submit

1760
01:21:55,600 --> 01:21:58,519
Speaker 2: his You know, oh, mister King, you're amazing and thanks

1761
01:21:58,520 --> 01:22:01,760
Speaker 2: to your wonderful leadership, dear, we were able to cut

1762
01:22:01,800 --> 01:22:05,080
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty billion dollars from the federal budget deficits, So.

1763
01:22:05,840 --> 01:22:06,720
Speaker 4: You know, I think we are.

1764
01:22:07,320 --> 01:22:09,519
Speaker 2: I do think DOSE is sort of like petering out

1765
01:22:09,560 --> 01:22:12,519
Speaker 2: as a project. But again that doesn't mean they haven't

1766
01:22:12,520 --> 01:22:16,240
Speaker 2: done tremendous damage that will take many, many years to

1767
01:22:16,560 --> 01:22:22,240
Speaker 2: recover from and that services won't be damaged. Social Security IRS.

1768
01:22:22,280 --> 01:22:25,040
Speaker 2: We actually have the chart we can show you here.

1769
01:22:25,200 --> 01:22:27,240
Speaker 2: This is E five. Put this up on the screen.

1770
01:22:27,560 --> 01:22:32,639
Speaker 2: In terms of the IRS staffing levels just fell off

1771
01:22:32,680 --> 01:22:33,480
Speaker 2: a Cliff.

1772
01:22:33,800 --> 01:22:35,479
Speaker 4: Now, in fairness, they were.

1773
01:22:35,760 --> 01:22:39,360
Speaker 2: The number of staffers of the IRS were significantly increased

1774
01:22:39,479 --> 01:22:41,479
Speaker 2: under the Biden administration with the idea of like, we

1775
01:22:41,520 --> 01:22:43,360
Speaker 2: need more people to be able to go after rich

1776
01:22:43,439 --> 01:22:45,519
Speaker 2: tax cheats in particular, and not just be going after

1777
01:22:45,560 --> 01:22:48,599
Speaker 2: like waitresses for their tips. Well, but now it has

1778
01:22:48,640 --> 01:22:51,840
Speaker 2: plummeted down to fifty thousand. We haven't seen this level

1779
01:22:52,560 --> 01:22:54,840
Speaker 2: in years, I don't know when was the last time.

1780
01:22:55,160 --> 01:22:57,040
Speaker 2: So that's going to have a huge impact, Like which

1781
01:22:57,080 --> 01:22:58,320
Speaker 2: people are going to be able to get away with

1782
01:22:58,320 --> 01:22:59,960
Speaker 2: not paying their taxes. It's going to be much easier

1783
01:23:00,080 --> 01:23:01,680
Speaker 2: for them if you can hire lawyers and you've got

1784
01:23:01,680 --> 01:23:04,040
Speaker 2: the money to be able to fight and have set

1785
01:23:04,080 --> 01:23:06,160
Speaker 2: up tax shelters and all this sort of stuff. The

1786
01:23:06,200 --> 01:23:09,160
Speaker 2: IRS is going to be very hard pressed to be

1787
01:23:09,200 --> 01:23:12,960
Speaker 2: able to go after those people. So while DOGE as

1788
01:23:13,000 --> 01:23:15,720
Speaker 2: a project has in some ways failed, it doesn't mean

1789
01:23:15,720 --> 01:23:17,320
Speaker 2: that it hasn't done long term damage.

1790
01:23:17,360 --> 01:23:17,559
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1791
01:23:17,600 --> 01:23:19,720
Speaker 3: Sure on the IRS front. I'll just say this to

1792
01:23:19,920 --> 01:23:22,720
Speaker 3: blue in the face. They made themselves unpopular. They're the

1793
01:23:22,720 --> 01:23:24,280
Speaker 3: ones who got their new money and then did their

1794
01:23:24,280 --> 01:23:26,960
Speaker 3: little Venmo rules and turn the entire small business in

1795
01:23:27,040 --> 01:23:30,920
Speaker 3: poor community against them. From years of automated like those

1796
01:23:31,120 --> 01:23:35,479
Speaker 3: what is it, automated automated investigations into people making less

1797
01:23:35,479 --> 01:23:39,240
Speaker 3: than twenty two thousand dollars per year. They blame resource allocation, etc.

1798
01:23:39,600 --> 01:23:42,400
Speaker 3: But you know their own practice is not exactly one

1799
01:23:42,439 --> 01:23:44,120
Speaker 3: where people are going to be shedding a lot of

1800
01:23:44,120 --> 01:23:47,120
Speaker 3: tears maybe a decade from now if there's less in

1801
01:23:47,200 --> 01:23:50,280
Speaker 3: our deficit. But I would say broadly on the Doze project,

1802
01:23:50,560 --> 01:23:52,880
Speaker 3: you could view it two ways. Yes, there is quote

1803
01:23:53,080 --> 01:23:56,599
Speaker 3: like damage done. I also am like I've been saying,

1804
01:23:56,640 --> 01:24:00,519
Speaker 3: I really think that the legacy of the stupidity currently

1805
01:24:00,560 --> 01:24:03,280
Speaker 3: of much of the Trump administration will be to negatively

1806
01:24:03,280 --> 01:24:06,400
Speaker 3: polarize the American public in the same way that people were.

1807
01:24:06,600 --> 01:24:08,200
Speaker 3: I mean, if you think back to the nineteen seventies

1808
01:24:08,240 --> 01:24:10,920
Speaker 3: and the chaos of the nineteen seventies, people were negatively

1809
01:24:10,920 --> 01:24:13,040
Speaker 3: polarized on trusting government.

1810
01:24:13,040 --> 01:24:14,280
Speaker 1: That's why they'd like to Jimmy Carter.

1811
01:24:15,000 --> 01:24:18,840
Speaker 3: They were negatively polarized on inflation, part of the reason

1812
01:24:18,880 --> 01:24:22,000
Speaker 3: that they were so broadly accepting of the Reagan administration.

1813
01:24:22,560 --> 01:24:25,920
Speaker 3: They were negatively polarized around what they saw as a

1814
01:24:25,960 --> 01:24:29,720
Speaker 3: failure of the prolonged New Deal period. Same thing why

1815
01:24:29,760 --> 01:24:33,400
Speaker 3: neoliberalism was really ushered in. So in a similar way,

1816
01:24:33,439 --> 01:24:38,120
Speaker 3: we are seeing failures in DOGE. We're seeing failures on tariffs,

1817
01:24:38,280 --> 01:24:41,920
Speaker 3: we're seeing failures on immigration, and in all three of

1818
01:24:41,960 --> 01:24:44,679
Speaker 3: those you will find then that the sea saw nature

1819
01:24:44,680 --> 01:24:47,920
Speaker 3: of politics will swing back in a much more different direction.

1820
01:24:48,160 --> 01:24:51,639
Speaker 3: So if look, I mean Trump was elected, I would say,

1821
01:24:51,680 --> 01:24:54,280
Speaker 3: with a broad enough mandate on all three of those issues,

1822
01:24:54,360 --> 01:24:56,760
Speaker 3: if you actually wanted to stop him, this is a

1823
01:24:56,800 --> 01:24:59,760
Speaker 3: pretty good outcome for you, because you're going to win

1824
01:24:59,800 --> 01:25:02,320
Speaker 3: a east An argument. They're in the future and be

1825
01:25:02,720 --> 01:25:05,960
Speaker 3: on pretty strong ground. Especially I think whenever it comes

1826
01:25:06,000 --> 01:25:09,880
Speaker 3: to government capacity, prices and tariffs and those other things.

1827
01:25:09,960 --> 01:25:11,240
Speaker 1: I do not want this to happen.

1828
01:25:11,320 --> 01:25:13,559
Speaker 3: And as part of why I think it's really bad

1829
01:25:14,080 --> 01:25:16,920
Speaker 3: the way that this is all basically shaken out in

1830
01:25:16,960 --> 01:25:19,240
Speaker 3: the first hundred days. And I know enough looking in

1831
01:25:19,280 --> 01:25:21,400
Speaker 3: the past to say it's pretty hard to crawl out

1832
01:25:21,400 --> 01:25:23,720
Speaker 3: of a hole like this once you've actually done it.

1833
01:25:23,800 --> 01:25:25,840
Speaker 3: That's what I was saying about the first one hundred days.

1834
01:25:25,920 --> 01:25:30,280
Speaker 3: While it's certainly possible vibes etc. Could swing back, I

1835
01:25:30,360 --> 01:25:32,880
Speaker 3: don't see that path right now. I think they have

1836
01:25:33,000 --> 01:25:36,599
Speaker 3: dug themselves deep, deep, into a hole that.

1837
01:25:36,640 --> 01:25:37,519
Speaker 1: Crawling out of.

1838
01:25:38,360 --> 01:25:41,479
Speaker 3: You know, even politically, for them not to mention policy

1839
01:25:41,479 --> 01:25:44,639
Speaker 3: wise is just going to be I just don't see

1840
01:25:44,640 --> 01:25:45,439
Speaker 3: the way there's possible.

1841
01:25:45,520 --> 01:25:49,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're crippling the economy, potentially sending it into a recession.

1842
01:25:50,560 --> 01:25:52,080
Speaker 4: You're cutting taxes for the rich.

1843
01:25:52,320 --> 01:25:57,720
Speaker 2: Yeah soon, you're cutting social services for everybody else. You know,

1844
01:25:57,800 --> 01:26:00,880
Speaker 2: you've made it so that the some of the things

1845
01:26:00,880 --> 01:26:04,479
Speaker 2: that people actually appreciate and about the federal government being

1846
01:26:04,520 --> 01:26:08,439
Speaker 2: able to get their Social Security checks has been completely broken.

1847
01:26:09,000 --> 01:26:12,920
Speaker 2: So yeah, of course there's going to be reaction against that.

1848
01:26:13,160 --> 01:26:17,360
Speaker 2: And you know, we've been tracking, especially this week, the

1849
01:26:17,600 --> 01:26:21,120
Speaker 2: approval rating for Trump really across the board has fallen

1850
01:26:21,120 --> 01:26:24,360
Speaker 2: off significantly, not just with regard to his overall approval,

1851
01:26:24,360 --> 01:26:28,200
Speaker 2: but specifically is handling of the economy completely reversed. He

1852
01:26:28,200 --> 01:26:31,120
Speaker 2: has the worst numbers with independence of any president, including

1853
01:26:31,160 --> 01:26:35,960
Speaker 2: himself ever at this point in their presidency, and the

1854
01:26:36,040 --> 01:26:40,960
Speaker 2: pain of tariffs has not yet hit. Whatever dos just

1855
01:26:41,040 --> 01:26:42,760
Speaker 2: been doing in the government, which we have very little

1856
01:26:42,800 --> 01:26:46,080
Speaker 2: transparency into. By the way, whatever they've been doing in

1857
01:26:46,120 --> 01:26:49,840
Speaker 2: the government is going to hobble these agencies and incapacitate

1858
01:26:49,840 --> 01:26:52,400
Speaker 2: them for years and potentially cause the kind of crises

1859
01:26:52,479 --> 01:26:56,040
Speaker 2: that we've been concerned about over time. Those things haven't

1860
01:26:56,080 --> 01:26:59,680
Speaker 2: even hit yet, so it's hard to imagine how they

1861
01:26:59,760 --> 01:27:02,439
Speaker 2: on this current path. You know, Trump's not going to

1862
01:27:02,439 --> 01:27:05,559
Speaker 2: do a one ed that's not who he is. Right Instead,

1863
01:27:05,600 --> 01:27:08,400
Speaker 2: and this is just a quick preview of my monologue, like, instead,

1864
01:27:08,439 --> 01:27:10,840
Speaker 2: he's going to lean more into the authoritarian, like let

1865
01:27:10,840 --> 01:27:13,599
Speaker 2: me suppress the descent. As there's more of a sort

1866
01:27:13,600 --> 01:27:18,120
Speaker 2: of like grassroots and institutional backlash to him and resistance

1867
01:27:18,160 --> 01:27:21,040
Speaker 2: to him, You're going to see more authoritarian tactics in

1868
01:27:21,080 --> 01:27:23,120
Speaker 2: the same way that after he lost the election in

1869
01:27:23,120 --> 01:27:27,160
Speaker 2: twenty twenty, you know, a referendum on his popularity and

1870
01:27:27,880 --> 01:27:30,840
Speaker 2: you know, the threat to obviously the greatest threat to

1871
01:27:30,960 --> 01:27:33,360
Speaker 2: his power, that was when he was at his most

1872
01:27:33,400 --> 01:27:36,760
Speaker 2: unhinged and most authoritarian in the first term. And I

1873
01:27:36,800 --> 01:27:38,400
Speaker 2: fully expect us to be heading into that.

1874
01:27:38,560 --> 01:27:40,920
Speaker 3: Yeah maybe, well, you know the other possibility of that

1875
01:27:41,120 --> 01:27:43,360
Speaker 3: is that when you lose your grip on the government

1876
01:27:43,520 --> 01:27:46,280
Speaker 3: and you began explicitly challenging the court. I mean I

1877
01:27:46,320 --> 01:27:50,280
Speaker 3: saw a Supreme Court watcher be like, if you're Justice Roberts, Now,

1878
01:27:50,479 --> 01:27:53,480
Speaker 3: that whole what we remember, we talked about the facilitate language.

1879
01:27:53,720 --> 01:27:54,960
Speaker 3: You're just not going to do that in the future.

1880
01:27:55,000 --> 01:27:56,040
Speaker 3: You're going to be like, no, I think that's what

1881
01:27:56,080 --> 01:27:56,759
Speaker 3: it's not happening.

1882
01:27:56,800 --> 01:27:58,679
Speaker 2: I think that's right because they have to be watching

1883
01:27:59,040 --> 01:28:02,080
Speaker 2: the way that the admitted station is just lying about

1884
01:28:02,080 --> 01:28:03,840
Speaker 2: their order and be like, oh, we cannot give them

1885
01:28:03,880 --> 01:28:05,240
Speaker 2: an inch at You know.

1886
01:28:05,240 --> 01:28:07,280
Speaker 3: You can crack down all you want if you're Trump,

1887
01:28:07,640 --> 01:28:10,960
Speaker 3: but any Republican, good luck to you who is in

1888
01:28:11,040 --> 01:28:13,639
Speaker 3: power right now, because when the Dems take the House,

1889
01:28:13,760 --> 01:28:16,400
Speaker 3: you are Elon alone. It will probably have to spend

1890
01:28:16,400 --> 01:28:18,840
Speaker 3: one hundred million in legal fees just in terms of

1891
01:28:18,880 --> 01:28:22,400
Speaker 3: what the House committees are going to investigate on SpaceX

1892
01:28:22,560 --> 01:28:25,280
Speaker 3: and on Twitter and Tesla alone. So that's just Elon

1893
01:28:25,680 --> 01:28:27,640
Speaker 3: for everybody else in the administration.

1894
01:28:28,000 --> 01:28:28,679
Speaker 1: Oh my god.

1895
01:28:28,720 --> 01:28:31,240
Speaker 3: I hope you people have lawyers upon lawyers on retainer

1896
01:28:31,280 --> 01:28:33,000
Speaker 3: because it's going to be not going to be fun

1897
01:28:33,439 --> 01:28:36,799
Speaker 3: for all those you know, the contempt challenges. Remember Bannon

1898
01:28:36,840 --> 01:28:39,160
Speaker 3: went to prison for contempt, so did Peter Lamarro.

1899
01:28:39,520 --> 01:28:39,760
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1900
01:28:39,840 --> 01:28:42,240
Speaker 3: I mean these people they can literally lock your ass up.

1901
01:28:42,479 --> 01:28:44,920
Speaker 3: And then in the future, let's say, you know, if

1902
01:28:44,920 --> 01:28:49,479
Speaker 3: this continues and you have a Democratic president, who's in charge.

1903
01:28:49,560 --> 01:28:51,160
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, I wouldn't want to be a Christian

1904
01:28:51,240 --> 01:28:54,320
Speaker 3: charity right now when we're talking about Harvard University and

1905
01:28:54,400 --> 01:28:58,080
Speaker 3: tax exempt status and all that. So still I still

1906
01:28:58,120 --> 01:29:01,599
Speaker 3: see a major backfire. That's I'm in there for Donald Trump.

1907
01:29:01,680 --> 01:29:03,280
Speaker 2: Last thing, I do want to put this last alum

1908
01:29:03,280 --> 01:29:05,640
Speaker 2: eight e four guys up on the screen just so

1909
01:29:05,720 --> 01:29:08,200
Speaker 2: you know what we're not like cooking the books here

1910
01:29:08,439 --> 01:29:12,800
Speaker 2: or lying. This is cumulative federal spending by day, and

1911
01:29:12,880 --> 01:29:14,559
Speaker 2: where we are in twenty twenty five is.

1912
01:29:14,560 --> 01:29:16,479
Speaker 4: Above where we were in twenty twenty four.

1913
01:29:17,000 --> 01:29:20,439
Speaker 2: So you know, all of those purported savings not showing

1914
01:29:20,520 --> 01:29:24,160
Speaker 2: up here whatsoever. And as I mentioned before, you know,

1915
01:29:24,280 --> 01:29:26,559
Speaker 2: even their one hundred and fifty billion dollar claim is

1916
01:29:26,640 --> 01:29:29,760
Speaker 2: total bullshit. That New York Times report they found that

1917
01:29:29,960 --> 01:29:32,880
Speaker 2: one of their largest claims involves canceling a contract that

1918
01:29:32,960 --> 01:29:34,160
Speaker 2: did not even exist.

1919
01:29:34,439 --> 01:29:36,679
Speaker 4: So those are the sorts of things that we're talking

1920
01:29:36,720 --> 01:29:37,160
Speaker 4: about here.

1921
01:29:37,240 --> 01:29:37,599
Speaker 1: There you go.

1922
01:29:37,680 --> 01:29:40,639
Speaker 2: But there is one good thing sort of maybe maybe

1923
01:29:40,680 --> 01:29:43,840
Speaker 2: I'll get to that caveats, but maybe encouraging news coming

1924
01:29:43,840 --> 01:29:44,840
Speaker 2: out of the Trump administration.

1925
01:29:45,000 --> 01:29:45,559
Speaker 1: Let's get to that.

1926
01:29:45,640 --> 01:29:47,160
Speaker 3: Let's get to that, Onie Ron, Let's put this up

1927
01:29:47,160 --> 01:29:49,000
Speaker 3: there on the screen. There's so many things that I

1928
01:29:49,040 --> 01:29:51,439
Speaker 3: want to say about this. First of all, it's the

1929
01:29:51,439 --> 01:29:55,200
Speaker 3: headline Trump waved off Israeli strike after divisions emerged in

1930
01:29:55,280 --> 01:29:59,320
Speaker 3: his administration. Let's break down this extraordinary report clearly leaked

1931
01:29:59,320 --> 01:30:01,559
Speaker 3: from the administration kind of has a screw you to

1932
01:30:01,640 --> 01:30:05,120
Speaker 3: Israel and showing their plans for what they presented in

1933
01:30:05,160 --> 01:30:06,120
Speaker 3: the Oval Office.

1934
01:30:06,280 --> 01:30:06,599
Speaker 1: Quote.

1935
01:30:06,640 --> 01:30:11,000
Speaker 3: Israeli officials recently developed plans to attack Iranian nuclear sites

1936
01:30:11,040 --> 01:30:13,680
Speaker 3: in May next month. They were preparing to carry them

1937
01:30:13,680 --> 01:30:16,120
Speaker 3: out and at the time were optimistic the United States

1938
01:30:16,160 --> 01:30:18,720
Speaker 3: would sign off. The goal of the proposal was to

1939
01:30:18,760 --> 01:30:21,639
Speaker 3: set back Tehran's ability to develop a nuclear weapon by

1940
01:30:21,680 --> 01:30:22,639
Speaker 3: a year or more.

1941
01:30:22,960 --> 01:30:23,360
Speaker 1: Quote.

1942
01:30:23,439 --> 01:30:28,639
Speaker 3: Almost all plans would have required United States help, not

1943
01:30:28,800 --> 01:30:31,320
Speaker 3: just to defend Israel, but also to ensure that the

1944
01:30:31,360 --> 01:30:34,879
Speaker 3: Israeli attack was successful, making the United States a central

1945
01:30:34,920 --> 01:30:37,639
Speaker 3: part of the attack itself. For now, Trump has chosen

1946
01:30:37,640 --> 01:30:41,600
Speaker 3: diplomacy over military action. However, in his second term he

1947
01:30:41,640 --> 01:30:44,559
Speaker 3: is eager to avoid being sucked into another war in

1948
01:30:44,600 --> 01:30:47,599
Speaker 3: the Middle East, and his open negotiations with Tehran, giving

1949
01:30:47,640 --> 01:30:49,599
Speaker 3: it a deadline of just a few months to negotiate

1950
01:30:49,640 --> 01:30:51,480
Speaker 3: a deal over its program.

1951
01:30:51,200 --> 01:30:52,120
Speaker 1: Earlier this month.

1952
01:30:52,200 --> 01:30:55,400
Speaker 3: Trump informed Israel of his decision the United States would

1953
01:30:55,439 --> 01:30:58,040
Speaker 3: not support an attack, discussed it with Netan Yahoo when

1954
01:30:58,040 --> 01:31:00,640
Speaker 3: he visited Washington just last week, and told him in

1955
01:31:00,720 --> 01:31:03,320
Speaker 3: the Oval Office that that was not going to happen.

1956
01:31:03,520 --> 01:31:03,840
Speaker 1: Quote.

1957
01:31:03,880 --> 01:31:07,800
Speaker 3: Israel has long planned to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, rehearsing

1958
01:31:07,840 --> 01:31:10,040
Speaker 3: bombing runs and calculating how much damage you could do,

1959
01:31:10,280 --> 01:31:13,880
Speaker 3: but support within the government has grown after Iran suffered

1960
01:31:13,920 --> 01:31:16,240
Speaker 3: a string of setbacks just last year. They think that

1961
01:31:16,240 --> 01:31:18,799
Speaker 3: they're weak and that they can strike now now. According

1962
01:31:18,880 --> 01:31:22,680
Speaker 3: to them, there were plans on the table not just

1963
01:31:22,720 --> 01:31:26,080
Speaker 3: to facilitate the bombing, but then to require and push

1964
01:31:26,120 --> 01:31:29,280
Speaker 3: the United States to bring more military assets to the region.

1965
01:31:29,439 --> 01:31:31,479
Speaker 3: Remember how we were covering here on the show about

1966
01:31:31,479 --> 01:31:34,280
Speaker 3: all new military assets that are headed that way. It

1967
01:31:34,439 --> 01:31:37,600
Speaker 3: was specifically after a push by the Israeli government on

1968
01:31:37,760 --> 01:31:40,040
Speaker 3: this now, thank god for now.

1969
01:31:41,840 --> 01:31:43,400
Speaker 1: Exactly Ye, we're exactly right.

1970
01:31:43,840 --> 01:31:47,679
Speaker 3: And so looking inside, it's very interesting. There were quote

1971
01:31:47,680 --> 01:31:51,479
Speaker 3: a range of officials who spoke out against any of

1972
01:31:51,520 --> 01:31:55,120
Speaker 3: these attacks. Tulsea Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence, said

1973
01:31:55,120 --> 01:31:57,599
Speaker 3: that the build up of American weaponry would potentially spark

1974
01:31:57,680 --> 01:32:00,240
Speaker 3: wider conflict with Iran. The United States does not want

1975
01:32:00,439 --> 01:32:04,320
Speaker 3: jd Vance, Pete Hegseth, and apparently also Susie.

1976
01:32:03,920 --> 01:32:05,320
Speaker 1: Wiles, the White House Chief of Staff.

1977
01:32:05,439 --> 01:32:08,720
Speaker 3: However, the idiot dunce Mike Waltz was also in the

1978
01:32:08,800 --> 01:32:11,679
Speaker 3: room quote frequently one of the most hawkish voices on Iran,

1979
01:32:11,880 --> 01:32:14,040
Speaker 3: and while he was skeptical about our Israel's plan to

1980
01:32:14,080 --> 01:32:17,400
Speaker 3: succeed without US assistance, back to the plan anyway, And

1981
01:32:17,439 --> 01:32:20,320
Speaker 3: there are several people who are inside the administration who

1982
01:32:20,360 --> 01:32:23,679
Speaker 3: are openly supporting this, people like Marco Rubio, many other

1983
01:32:23,720 --> 01:32:26,439
Speaker 3: outside voices that are in the admin. So I do

1984
01:32:26,479 --> 01:32:28,960
Speaker 3: not want to downplay this is good news and it's bad.

1985
01:32:29,120 --> 01:32:32,080
Speaker 3: So the good news is that they have opted for

1986
01:32:32,120 --> 01:32:34,439
Speaker 3: a deal quote on a timeline of a few months

1987
01:32:34,720 --> 01:32:37,880
Speaker 3: for now before any sort of strike is on the table.

1988
01:32:38,600 --> 01:32:41,280
Speaker 3: The bad news is, I happen to remember the Iran deal,

1989
01:32:41,439 --> 01:32:45,000
Speaker 3: it took years to get the JCPOA to be negotiated.

1990
01:32:45,280 --> 01:32:48,760
Speaker 3: Second to that, as you guys cover yesterday on Counterpoints,

1991
01:32:48,920 --> 01:32:51,720
Speaker 3: there is a full scale purge happening right now in

1992
01:32:51,720 --> 01:32:54,599
Speaker 3: the Pentagon. There have been three top officials who have

1993
01:32:54,760 --> 01:32:57,160
Speaker 3: been kicked out of the building in some sort of

1994
01:32:57,360 --> 01:32:59,960
Speaker 3: crazy power struggle. I haven't fully gotten all the detail.

1995
01:33:00,439 --> 01:33:02,640
Speaker 3: Nobody really seems to know. All I happen to know

1996
01:33:02,680 --> 01:33:04,880
Speaker 3: is that the people who are most on Pete Hegsett's

1997
01:33:04,920 --> 01:33:07,280
Speaker 3: side and are the most America first just happened to

1998
01:33:07,280 --> 01:33:10,479
Speaker 3: be frog marched out of the building. Okay, that's not good, right.

1999
01:33:10,560 --> 01:33:13,160
Speaker 3: These are the very people who I would want right

2000
01:33:13,200 --> 01:33:16,160
Speaker 3: around Pete Hegsett, who would be quashing some of the

2001
01:33:16,160 --> 01:33:19,080
Speaker 3: stuff that's happening. Mike Walltz meanwhile, even though he literally

2002
01:33:19,080 --> 01:33:21,280
Speaker 3: put Jeffrey Goldberg on a signal chain, Oh, he gets

2003
01:33:21,320 --> 01:33:24,679
Speaker 3: to stay right. But these people who they're accusing of leaking,

2004
01:33:24,840 --> 01:33:25,920
Speaker 3: they're getting frog marched.

2005
01:33:26,200 --> 01:33:27,200
Speaker 1: Interesting, got it.

2006
01:33:27,600 --> 01:33:32,040
Speaker 3: The point is that personnel around Trump is pure chaos.

2007
01:33:32,560 --> 01:33:35,560
Speaker 3: In some days, Marco Rubio's in charge. Mike Wallace is

2008
01:33:35,560 --> 01:33:38,439
Speaker 3: still around there. Some days he's listening to JD and

2009
01:33:38,520 --> 01:33:41,800
Speaker 3: he's listening to Tulca Gabbard, but there is no guarantee

2010
01:33:41,840 --> 01:33:43,920
Speaker 3: that he doesn't just turn his head and listen to

2011
01:33:43,960 --> 01:33:47,320
Speaker 3: the other guy. We have Steve Wikoff, all those guys.

2012
01:33:47,360 --> 01:33:49,559
Speaker 3: They're in control for right now, but as we saw

2013
01:33:49,640 --> 01:33:52,680
Speaker 3: with the ceasefire deal, they can be out of power momentarily.

2014
01:33:53,240 --> 01:33:56,000
Speaker 3: Nothing is guaranteed and or certain right now. I don't

2015
01:33:56,000 --> 01:34:01,920
Speaker 3: think the stakes could literally be higher because Israel, you

2016
01:34:02,000 --> 01:34:05,920
Speaker 3: have to admire their hutzpa. They don't even develop war

2017
01:34:06,000 --> 01:34:09,800
Speaker 3: plans without US backing. They they don't even pretend to

2018
01:34:09,840 --> 01:34:13,439
Speaker 3: have operation. That doesn't mean, hey, big daddy, you have

2019
01:34:13,520 --> 01:34:15,879
Speaker 3: to come in here and actually do something about it.

2020
01:34:16,160 --> 01:34:19,400
Speaker 3: So let's all be very clear about what this strike

2021
01:34:19,720 --> 01:34:22,400
Speaker 3: and all that means. It's also the thing about BB

2022
01:34:22,720 --> 01:34:24,840
Speaker 3: is he's not even creative. This is the exact same

2023
01:34:24,880 --> 01:34:27,800
Speaker 3: plan that he came up with in nine that Jeffrey Goldberg,

2024
01:34:28,120 --> 01:34:31,640
Speaker 3: by the way, is the one who revealed about and

2025
01:34:31,680 --> 01:34:34,600
Speaker 3: tried to push President Obama to support Bebe to do.

2026
01:34:34,760 --> 01:34:35,720
Speaker 1: This is fifteen years ago.

2027
01:34:35,760 --> 01:34:38,639
Speaker 3: It's the exact same plan, almost to the letter, about

2028
01:34:38,640 --> 01:34:40,439
Speaker 3: what the US is going to do and how Israel

2029
01:34:40,560 --> 01:34:41,720
Speaker 3: is going to be the tip of the spear, but

2030
01:34:41,760 --> 01:34:44,519
Speaker 3: the US would be the overall security umbrella there. So

2031
01:34:44,640 --> 01:34:46,919
Speaker 3: that's where we're at right now. The deal is currently

2032
01:34:47,400 --> 01:34:51,280
Speaker 3: being negotiated. The timeline is not good. Trump could change

2033
01:34:51,280 --> 01:34:54,240
Speaker 3: his mind at any time, and the fate of the

2034
01:34:54,240 --> 01:34:55,519
Speaker 3: world is hanging in the balance.

2035
01:34:55,640 --> 01:34:58,519
Speaker 2: And what Emily was saying is that the people who

2036
01:34:58,560 --> 01:35:04,280
Speaker 2: want him to go with BB bomb Iran plan. They're saying, like, oh,

2037
01:35:04,400 --> 01:35:06,280
Speaker 2: you're just negotiating a deal just like Obama.

2038
01:35:06,439 --> 01:35:08,639
Speaker 4: You know, they are get under his skin.

2039
01:35:08,760 --> 01:35:10,960
Speaker 2: And I mean, unfortunately, there is some truth to the

2040
01:35:11,000 --> 01:35:13,280
Speaker 2: fact that any deal that he would get would probably

2041
01:35:13,280 --> 01:35:17,800
Speaker 2: bear some similarities to what Obama did. But that is

2042
01:35:18,560 --> 01:35:20,840
Speaker 2: I mean, first of all, I think the original deal

2043
01:35:20,920 --> 01:35:22,800
Speaker 2: was actually a good deal. It was one of the

2044
01:35:22,880 --> 01:35:27,120
Speaker 2: signature achievements of the Obama administration. It's really unfortunate Trump

2045
01:35:27,160 --> 01:35:29,800
Speaker 2: back down. It's also unfortunate Biden didn't get back in

2046
01:35:29,880 --> 01:35:31,679
Speaker 2: something covered extensively at the time.

2047
01:35:32,120 --> 01:35:33,479
Speaker 4: But I have.

2048
01:35:33,640 --> 01:35:37,080
Speaker 2: Doctor Tree DEPARSI you evaluated and analyzed this New York

2049
01:35:37,080 --> 01:35:40,360
Speaker 2: Times article. I just wanted to share his insights because

2050
01:35:40,360 --> 01:35:41,080
Speaker 2: he's such an expert.

2051
01:35:41,080 --> 01:35:41,439
Speaker 4: Here, he says.

2052
01:35:41,520 --> 01:35:44,040
Speaker 2: Number One, last week, Trump told Israel that the US

2053
01:35:44,080 --> 01:35:46,719
Speaker 2: would not support an Israeli attack in Iran while talks

2054
01:35:46,720 --> 01:35:49,040
Speaker 2: were being conducted. That's the headline from the PC saying,

2055
01:35:49,080 --> 01:35:51,680
Speaker 2: these are the key pieces to take away from it.

2056
01:35:51,800 --> 01:35:54,479
Speaker 2: Number Two, in the Israeli plan of attack, the US

2057
01:35:54,520 --> 01:35:56,960
Speaker 2: would have to play a central role. Israel itself has

2058
01:35:57,000 --> 01:35:59,439
Speaker 2: no military option. So that's what Zager was saying keep

2059
01:35:59,439 --> 01:36:02,599
Speaker 2: that in mind. Number three. Still, the Israeli plan would

2060
01:36:02,600 --> 01:36:07,120
Speaker 2: only push back the Iranian program one year. More attacks

2061
01:36:07,160 --> 01:36:10,720
Speaker 2: would be needed after that. That means Israel wants to

2062
01:36:10,760 --> 01:36:14,080
Speaker 2: bring the US into a forever war with Iran.

2063
01:36:14,280 --> 01:36:16,760
Speaker 4: Yes, that's what we're talking about here.

2064
01:36:17,160 --> 01:36:19,679
Speaker 2: Number four, he says, More importantly, the twenty fifteen nuclear

2065
01:36:19,720 --> 01:36:21,599
Speaker 2: deal pushed back the program much more than a year,

2066
01:36:21,720 --> 01:36:23,920
Speaker 2: so that was way more successful. And then he says

2067
01:36:24,040 --> 01:36:26,559
Speaker 2: Trump appears to understand negotiated solution better.

2068
01:36:26,400 --> 01:36:28,840
Speaker 4: Achieves his goal. Well, we'll see. We'll see on that front.

2069
01:36:29,040 --> 01:36:31,840
Speaker 2: I hope so, I hope he can be persuaded of that,

2070
01:36:32,240 --> 01:36:34,599
Speaker 2: and I hope they're able to negotiate a deal, because

2071
01:36:34,640 --> 01:36:37,920
Speaker 2: this is This would be insanity, This would be utter insanity.

2072
01:36:38,080 --> 01:36:38,400
Speaker 1: Not good.

2073
01:36:38,640 --> 01:36:40,840
Speaker 3: I did want to put some positive news. Let's go

2074
01:36:40,880 --> 01:36:41,400
Speaker 3: to the next one.

2075
01:36:41,439 --> 01:36:41,759
Speaker 1: Please.

2076
01:36:41,840 --> 01:36:45,880
Speaker 3: Trump has reappointed Adam Bowhler. He'll all remember Adam. I

2077
01:36:45,920 --> 01:36:46,639
Speaker 3: remain a Bowler.

2078
01:36:46,720 --> 01:36:47,000
Speaker 1: Stand.

2079
01:36:47,120 --> 01:36:49,080
Speaker 3: He's the guy who said that we're not a client

2080
01:36:49,080 --> 01:36:52,120
Speaker 3: state of Israel, and who was relentlessly attacked by the

2081
01:36:52,160 --> 01:36:55,639
Speaker 3: Israel lobby for daring to want to negotiate with Hamas directly,

2082
01:36:55,920 --> 01:36:58,080
Speaker 3: and who said we're not a client State of Israel,

2083
01:36:58,080 --> 01:37:00,960
Speaker 3: and who knows, maybe they're good guys. Remember this guy

2084
01:37:01,080 --> 01:37:03,200
Speaker 3: is friends with Jared Kushner and they still were able

2085
01:37:03,280 --> 01:37:06,120
Speaker 3: to sideline him. Seems to be back is appointed to

2086
01:37:06,240 --> 01:37:10,160
Speaker 3: quote expanded hostage envoy roll. We're not yet sure how

2087
01:37:10,200 --> 01:37:12,160
Speaker 3: that is all going to work out. I'm told the

2088
01:37:12,240 --> 01:37:15,720
Speaker 3: Israeli ambassad directly intervened to try and to screw over

2089
01:37:15,760 --> 01:37:16,360
Speaker 3: Adam Bowler.

2090
01:37:16,439 --> 01:37:17,639
Speaker 1: So that's what we're dealing with.

2091
01:37:18,840 --> 01:37:21,000
Speaker 3: Let's go to the next one here again, just more

2092
01:37:21,040 --> 01:37:23,479
Speaker 3: a little bit insight. This is from Barack Revid. He's

2093
01:37:23,520 --> 01:37:26,040
Speaker 3: mostly getting leased, it seems, from the Israeli side. But

2094
01:37:26,120 --> 01:37:28,960
Speaker 3: what he's saying is basically that the President kind of

2095
01:37:29,000 --> 01:37:31,639
Speaker 3: needled bb Net and Yahu in the Oval office when

2096
01:37:31,680 --> 01:37:34,240
Speaker 3: saying he would not green light the Iranian attack and

2097
01:37:34,320 --> 01:37:36,679
Speaker 3: kind of tried to force him to accept the fact

2098
01:37:36,720 --> 01:37:39,000
Speaker 3: that the US was going to pursue a deal. But

2099
01:37:39,360 --> 01:37:43,240
Speaker 3: they have several senators and others Mike Wallace, Marco Rubio,

2100
01:37:43,400 --> 01:37:46,880
Speaker 3: Tom Cotton, Lindsea Gram people who have their ear of

2101
01:37:46,920 --> 01:37:51,120
Speaker 3: the president, and then the Israel lobby specifically behind the scenes,

2102
01:37:51,240 --> 01:37:54,200
Speaker 3: is whipping harder than they have ever done since I

2103
01:37:54,240 --> 01:37:56,720
Speaker 3: have seen since two thousand and fifteen. They have the

2104
01:37:56,880 --> 01:38:00,840
Speaker 3: entire infrastructure in place. They're the beats are being sent,

2105
01:38:01,080 --> 01:38:04,400
Speaker 3: the calls are being made. I mean, these people never

2106
01:38:04,520 --> 01:38:07,720
Speaker 3: underestimate their abilities. As I said, as I watch people

2107
01:38:07,760 --> 01:38:10,280
Speaker 3: who I know, America first year is getting frog marched

2108
01:38:10,439 --> 01:38:12,679
Speaker 3: out of the Pentagon. So I don't remember Mike Walt's

2109
01:38:12,680 --> 01:38:14,320
Speaker 3: getting frog bars out of the White House even though

2110
01:38:14,320 --> 01:38:16,760
Speaker 3: it obviously deserved to and they went to bat for him.

2111
01:38:16,840 --> 01:38:17,760
Speaker 1: So don't forget that.

2112
01:38:17,800 --> 01:38:20,200
Speaker 4: Well, Laura Lummer did claim some scoffs.

2113
01:38:20,400 --> 01:38:22,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, some low level guys. Okay, I don't care about

2114
01:38:22,720 --> 01:38:25,280
Speaker 3: some guy who's staffing Mike Walts. Mike Walts is in

2115
01:38:25,320 --> 01:38:28,080
Speaker 3: the Oval pushing war. That's what matters more than anything,

2116
01:38:28,400 --> 01:38:31,320
Speaker 3: you know, that is actually the only thing that matters

2117
01:38:31,360 --> 01:38:33,080
Speaker 3: at the end of the day, because this is all

2118
01:38:33,160 --> 01:38:35,840
Speaker 3: up to Donald Trump in the situation room. Right now,

2119
01:38:35,960 --> 01:38:40,320
Speaker 3: we have relative parody with between Tulsea Gabbard, Pete and JD.

2120
01:38:40,520 --> 01:38:43,280
Speaker 3: Versus Rubio and Mike Walls and a few of the

2121
01:38:43,320 --> 01:38:46,120
Speaker 3: other neo cons that would be on the National Security Council.

2122
01:38:46,280 --> 01:38:49,040
Speaker 3: But I mean, you can see how quickly like things

2123
01:38:49,040 --> 01:38:51,320
Speaker 3: can turn just like that with Donald Trump's so I

2124
01:38:51,360 --> 01:38:54,040
Speaker 3: have no idea, and I do not underestimate the Israel lobby.

2125
01:38:54,240 --> 01:38:56,240
Speaker 3: Their ability to get on Fox News is to pump

2126
01:38:56,280 --> 01:38:59,679
Speaker 3: all this bullshit straightened into Trump's brain, and so things

2127
01:38:59,720 --> 01:39:01,360
Speaker 3: could be he had it in a bad direction.

2128
01:39:01,640 --> 01:39:03,200
Speaker 1: All right, Christal, what are you taking a little at that?

2129
01:39:06,000 --> 01:39:10,080
Speaker 2: Senator Chuck Grassley was recently confronted by angry Iowa constituents

2130
01:39:10,200 --> 01:39:13,280
Speaker 2: who are demanding the return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia.

2131
01:39:13,400 --> 01:39:17,880
Speaker 4: Take a listen, you gotta bring that ship from El Salvador.

2132
01:39:23,000 --> 01:39:28,040
Speaker 8: Why not, Well, because that's not that's how power of Congress.

2133
01:39:31,520 --> 01:39:37,559
Speaker 6: Yeah, Comdia.

2134
01:39:38,000 --> 01:39:44,000
Speaker 8: Trump don't care a freeform order taking for twelve hundred dollars.

2135
01:39:43,680 --> 01:39:45,960
Speaker 6: And I just say no, Does that stand up?

2136
01:39:46,439 --> 01:39:48,880
Speaker 2: Because he's gotten order from the Supreme Court and he

2137
01:39:49,160 --> 01:39:49,920
Speaker 2: just said no.

2138
01:39:50,280 --> 01:39:55,920
Speaker 8: Yeah, the president of that country is not subject for

2139
01:39:56,439 --> 01:39:57,440
Speaker 8: US Supreme.

2140
01:40:04,840 --> 01:40:05,040
Speaker 4: Now.

2141
01:40:05,160 --> 01:40:08,240
Speaker 2: The reason that this administration has decided to fight so

2142
01:40:08,320 --> 01:40:11,880
Speaker 2: hard on this one particular case to keep this one

2143
01:40:11,960 --> 01:40:15,519
Speaker 2: man locked in the dungeon for life is pretty simple

2144
01:40:15,560 --> 01:40:18,800
Speaker 2: and obvious, because if they can stonewall even in a

2145
01:40:18,840 --> 01:40:22,040
Speaker 2: case where they admit that they screwed up, then there

2146
01:40:22,120 --> 01:40:25,200
Speaker 2: is nothing to stop them from sending whoever they want

2147
01:40:25,400 --> 01:40:28,280
Speaker 2: to the torture dungeon for a life. All they have

2148
01:40:28,320 --> 01:40:30,639
Speaker 2: to do is get the planes in the air before

2149
01:40:30,760 --> 01:40:34,120
Speaker 2: a court can weigh in. As one reaganarppointed judge wrote

2150
01:40:34,160 --> 01:40:36,960
Speaker 2: of Trump's plot, quote, it takes no small amount of

2151
01:40:36,960 --> 01:40:41,480
Speaker 2: imagination to understand that this is a path of perfect lawlessness.

2152
01:40:41,920 --> 01:40:44,599
Speaker 2: What I want you to understand, though, is that this

2153
01:40:44,680 --> 01:40:48,599
Speaker 2: is only the beginning of Trump's authoritarian crackdown. And in fact,

2154
01:40:49,000 --> 01:40:52,360
Speaker 2: if history of other authoritarians and Trump himself are any guide,

2155
01:40:52,880 --> 01:40:57,200
Speaker 2: as Trump's popularity falls, he will only become more dangerous

2156
01:40:57,200 --> 01:40:59,800
Speaker 2: as he reaches for more and more tools of suppression

2157
01:41:00,080 --> 01:41:03,400
Speaker 2: and control. This is in fact the exact spiral that

2158
01:41:03,520 --> 01:41:07,240
Speaker 2: led to the January sixth riots and Trump's attempted election subversion.

2159
01:41:07,680 --> 01:41:09,800
Speaker 2: But if there's one thing we know about Trump two

2160
01:41:09,840 --> 01:41:13,320
Speaker 2: point zero, the man himself is more unhinged, and any

2161
01:41:13,400 --> 01:41:16,720
Speaker 2: prior guardrails have either been demolished or are being bulldozed

2162
01:41:17,000 --> 01:41:19,880
Speaker 2: right through now. In many ways, the early days of

2163
01:41:19,880 --> 01:41:23,960
Speaker 2: Trump's administration have been a complete failure. We're just discussing dosee.

2164
01:41:23,960 --> 01:41:27,240
Speaker 2: It's floundering, no public achievements, even as it destroys key

2165
01:41:27,560 --> 01:41:31,679
Speaker 2: government functions. Elon himself has seen his status EBB after

2166
01:41:31,760 --> 01:41:34,200
Speaker 2: a political dropping in Wisconsin, it seems on his way

2167
01:41:34,240 --> 01:41:37,519
Speaker 2: to limping out of town. The Ukraine War and Israel's

2168
01:41:37,560 --> 01:41:40,559
Speaker 2: genocide and Gaza they grind on with no apparent end

2169
01:41:40,600 --> 01:41:45,320
Speaker 2: in sight, and perhaps most devastating politically, Trump's Grand Trade

2170
01:41:45,320 --> 01:41:49,479
Speaker 2: War has been a catastrophic mess, which somehow managed to

2171
01:41:49,600 --> 01:41:50,519
Speaker 2: unite Wall.

2172
01:41:50,320 --> 01:41:53,240
Speaker 4: Street with Main Street in their revulsion for.

2173
01:41:53,200 --> 01:41:55,720
Speaker 2: The chaos and the damage that is being inflicted for

2174
01:41:55,840 --> 01:42:00,320
Speaker 2: no good reason. Polls increasingly reflect the public's consensus on

2175
01:42:00,400 --> 01:42:04,439
Speaker 2: these failures. A Liberation Day has accelerated a downward trend

2176
01:42:04,520 --> 01:42:07,240
Speaker 2: in Trump's overall approval rating. He's gone from plus one

2177
01:42:07,320 --> 01:42:10,639
Speaker 2: with independence to minus twenty two. That is the worst

2178
01:42:10,680 --> 01:42:13,280
Speaker 2: any president has ever fared with this group at this

2179
01:42:13,280 --> 01:42:17,000
Speaker 2: point in their presidency. His economic approval has fallen even

2180
01:42:17,080 --> 01:42:20,160
Speaker 2: more precipitously, with terrorists dominating when people are asked what

2181
01:42:20,320 --> 01:42:24,080
Speaker 2: negative things they've seen recently about the Trump administration. Even

2182
01:42:24,120 --> 01:42:27,000
Speaker 2: on the strongest issue immigration, even that is starting to

2183
01:42:27,040 --> 01:42:27,920
Speaker 2: slip away from him.

2184
01:42:27,920 --> 01:42:29,120
Speaker 4: In a Quinnipiac poll that.

2185
01:42:29,120 --> 01:42:32,439
Speaker 2: Was taken before the Abrego Garcia case blew up to.

2186
01:42:32,439 --> 01:42:33,559
Speaker 4: A full national scandal.

2187
01:42:33,840 --> 01:42:36,680
Speaker 2: Trump was already underwater on immigration by five points, and

2188
01:42:36,720 --> 01:42:40,720
Speaker 2: on deportations, he was under water by eleven points. Now,

2189
01:42:40,760 --> 01:42:43,600
Speaker 2: at the same time, resistance is swelling, both at the

2190
01:42:43,640 --> 01:42:47,639
Speaker 2: grassroots and the institutional level. Hundreds of thousands of people

2191
01:42:47,840 --> 01:42:50,679
Speaker 2: have turned out to Bernie and AOC's Fight Oligarchy Tour,

2192
01:42:50,920 --> 01:42:54,880
Speaker 2: including large crowds in red states like Idaho. Millions turned

2193
01:42:54,880 --> 01:42:57,640
Speaker 2: out coast to coast as part of the hands off protests.

2194
01:42:58,000 --> 01:43:01,040
Speaker 2: Members of Congress cannot hold the town hall without being

2195
01:43:01,040 --> 01:43:05,599
Speaker 2: flooded by outraged constituents. Universities are beginning to fight back

2196
01:43:05,720 --> 01:43:08,320
Speaker 2: rather than get rolled. Law firms are starting to think

2197
01:43:08,360 --> 01:43:12,479
Speaker 2: twice about their capitulation bribery deals. Democrats have moved from

2198
01:43:12,560 --> 01:43:16,200
Speaker 2: Corey Booker's show speech to Chris Van Hollins's genuinely courageous

2199
01:43:16,240 --> 01:43:19,120
Speaker 2: flight to tangle with Bikelli in El Salvador. The courts

2200
01:43:19,160 --> 01:43:23,000
Speaker 2: are becoming increasingly assertive, and bond traders are apparently the

2201
01:43:23,040 --> 01:43:26,360
Speaker 2: actual deep state. Now, how will Trump respond to this

2202
01:43:26,560 --> 01:43:29,920
Speaker 2: rapid political shift and mounting backlash. It won't be by

2203
01:43:30,040 --> 01:43:33,040
Speaker 2: backing down or changing course. It will be by cracking down.

2204
01:43:33,439 --> 01:43:35,840
Speaker 2: Some of this project, of course, is already well in motion.

2205
01:43:35,960 --> 01:43:39,639
Speaker 2: He's used supposed national emergencies and national security threats already

2206
01:43:39,960 --> 01:43:43,080
Speaker 2: to claim extraordinary powers by his terrorist program and by

2207
01:43:43,120 --> 01:43:44,880
Speaker 2: invoking the Alien Enemies Act.

2208
01:43:45,360 --> 01:43:46,000
Speaker 4: But there's more.

2209
01:43:46,560 --> 01:43:49,160
Speaker 2: On April twentieth, pursuit to an executive order that Trump

2210
01:43:49,160 --> 01:43:51,800
Speaker 2: signed on day one of his presidency, he is going

2211
01:43:51,840 --> 01:43:55,200
Speaker 2: to receive a report from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and

2212
01:43:55,280 --> 01:43:58,880
Speaker 2: fascist Barbie Christinoum about whether or not he should invoke

2213
01:43:58,920 --> 01:44:00,040
Speaker 2: the Insurrection.

2214
01:43:59,680 --> 01:44:01,000
Speaker 4: Act of eighteen oh seven.

2215
01:44:01,400 --> 01:44:04,240
Speaker 2: Now, such an invocation would open up extraordinary powers for

2216
01:44:04,280 --> 01:44:06,960
Speaker 2: this president to use our military in our streets against

2217
01:44:07,000 --> 01:44:10,200
Speaker 2: our citizens. Of course, there are any number of ways

2218
01:44:10,240 --> 01:44:13,559
Speaker 2: which he might deploy that power. Perhaps he deployed the

2219
01:44:13,560 --> 01:44:17,400
Speaker 2: military to the border part of an expanded militarized immigration response.

2220
01:44:17,760 --> 01:44:20,400
Speaker 2: Acting head of ICE has mused about ramping up mass

2221
01:44:20,439 --> 01:44:24,000
Speaker 2: deportation on an industrial scale, even fantasizing about fleets of

2222
01:44:24,040 --> 01:44:27,439
Speaker 2: trucks scooping up immigrants the way that Amazon efficiently delivers

2223
01:44:27,479 --> 01:44:31,639
Speaker 2: packages on a mass scale. Quote, we need to get

2224
01:44:31,680 --> 01:44:34,519
Speaker 2: better at treating this like a business. Acting ICE director

2225
01:44:34,560 --> 01:44:38,320
Speaker 2: Todd Lyons said, explaining he wants to see a deportation process.

2226
01:44:38,160 --> 01:44:40,719
Speaker 4: Like Amazon Prime, but with human beings.

2227
01:44:41,280 --> 01:44:43,759
Speaker 2: Trump and the Republicans are pushing for a much larger

2228
01:44:43,800 --> 01:44:46,320
Speaker 2: budget for ICE and for private prison contractors to run

2229
01:44:46,360 --> 01:44:48,920
Speaker 2: detention centers. But if you really want to go for

2230
01:44:48,960 --> 01:44:52,160
Speaker 2: industrial scale, it'd be hard to beat the military. Now,

2231
01:44:52,280 --> 01:44:55,439
Speaker 2: even if you are hawkish on immigration, think of the

2232
01:44:55,640 --> 01:45:00,200
Speaker 2: genuinely evil way this administration has already conducted itself. Do

2233
01:45:00,280 --> 01:45:03,760
Speaker 2: you feel comfortable handing them the tools for a militarized,

2234
01:45:03,840 --> 01:45:07,360
Speaker 2: industrial scale human removal and incarceration system.

2235
01:45:07,960 --> 01:45:09,599
Speaker 4: Do you really think the.

2236
01:45:09,520 --> 01:45:11,879
Speaker 2: Horror is going to be just reserved to the criminals,

2237
01:45:11,880 --> 01:45:15,120
Speaker 2: the gang members, when we already know that ninety percent

2238
01:45:15,479 --> 01:45:17,360
Speaker 2: of the men that they send to a slave labor

2239
01:45:17,439 --> 01:45:21,640
Speaker 2: torture dungeon were innocent, Like Amazon Prime, but for fascism,

2240
01:45:21,640 --> 01:45:25,519
Speaker 2: I guess a notorious Blackwater war profiteer, Eric Prince, he's

2241
01:45:25,600 --> 01:45:28,000
Speaker 2: been pushing his own plans for mass expansion of the

2242
01:45:28,040 --> 01:45:31,880
Speaker 2: Bekelly torture dungeon operation. According to Politico, he wants to

2243
01:45:31,920 --> 01:45:35,799
Speaker 2: send thousands of migrants to Seacott and avoid legal scrutiny

2244
01:45:35,840 --> 01:45:39,400
Speaker 2: by designating a portion of the prison as American territory.

2245
01:45:40,040 --> 01:45:43,559
Speaker 2: That way, they could hold people indefinitely in Bekelly's gulag

2246
01:45:43,800 --> 01:45:46,440
Speaker 2: as easily as they can scoop up and detain immigrants

2247
01:45:46,560 --> 01:45:48,799
Speaker 2: right here in the US. But that is just one

2248
01:45:48,840 --> 01:45:52,840
Speaker 2: of a myriad of disturbing authoritarian possibilities. The Trump administration

2249
01:45:52,920 --> 01:45:56,800
Speaker 2: has also been cracking down on protesters, specifically targeting pro

2250
01:45:56,920 --> 01:46:00,760
Speaker 2: Palestine activists and those involved in the anti Tesla movement.

2251
01:46:00,479 --> 01:46:02,680
Speaker 4: Describing both groups as terrorists.

2252
01:46:03,120 --> 01:46:06,479
Speaker 2: What's more, Ken Klippenstein is reporting that Trump's law enforcement

2253
01:46:06,520 --> 01:46:10,599
Speaker 2: apparatus is increasingly targeting all protesters against this government, including

2254
01:46:10,600 --> 01:46:14,160
Speaker 2: those who participated in the recent hands off protests. This

2255
01:46:14,240 --> 01:46:18,120
Speaker 2: effort is being spearheaded by Trump's counter terrorism Zar Sebastian Gorka,

2256
01:46:18,120 --> 01:46:21,600
Speaker 2: who Ken writes frequently compares all his political opponents to

2257
01:46:22,040 --> 01:46:25,000
Speaker 2: terrorists and is in a significant position of power in

2258
01:46:25,040 --> 01:46:25,880
Speaker 2: this administration.

2259
01:46:26,439 --> 01:46:26,599
Speaker 1: Now.

2260
01:46:26,600 --> 01:46:30,400
Speaker 2: Gorka is also looking at considering those who oppose deportations

2261
01:46:30,760 --> 01:46:33,360
Speaker 2: as providing material support for terrorism.

2262
01:46:33,800 --> 01:46:34,919
Speaker 4: That would be a felony.

2263
01:46:35,479 --> 01:46:37,879
Speaker 2: It is not hard to imagine Trump using the Insurrection

2264
01:46:37,960 --> 01:46:40,799
Speaker 2: Act against any mass protest movement, giving they are already

2265
01:46:40,880 --> 01:46:44,680
Speaker 2: laying the administrative and rhetorical groundwork of painting these protesters

2266
01:46:44,680 --> 01:46:49,120
Speaker 2: as terrorists, as criminals, and as paid operatives. Another dark

2267
01:46:49,160 --> 01:46:51,960
Speaker 2: possibility is that Trump moves from using wartime powers to

2268
01:46:52,000 --> 01:46:55,240
Speaker 2: start to starting an actual war. We've been covering and

2269
01:46:55,240 --> 01:46:57,679
Speaker 2: covered in this show for a while the seeming build

2270
01:46:57,720 --> 01:46:59,960
Speaker 2: up towards war with a run now on the hopeful

2271
01:47:00,760 --> 01:47:03,240
Speaker 2: Trump has enlisted Steve Whitcoff in direct talks in an

2272
01:47:03,280 --> 01:47:06,559
Speaker 2: attempt to achieve a deal reportedly rejected, and Israeli planned

2273
01:47:06,600 --> 01:47:09,760
Speaker 2: to directly strike Iranian nuclear facilities, at least for now.

2274
01:47:10,560 --> 01:47:13,200
Speaker 2: On the ominous side, Trump's Pentagon has already drawn up

2275
01:47:13,200 --> 01:47:16,559
Speaker 2: war plans for Iran, including a nuclear option. Key anti

2276
01:47:16,640 --> 01:47:20,479
Speaker 2: war voices, including Dan Caldwell, were just purged from the Pentagon.

2277
01:47:20,800 --> 01:47:23,960
Speaker 2: Signal Gate also revealed just how hawkish the internal chat

2278
01:47:24,040 --> 01:47:27,160
Speaker 2: really is, and Trump himself has long seemed to believe

2279
01:47:27,360 --> 01:47:30,479
Speaker 2: that war makes for good politics and the Obama era,

2280
01:47:30,560 --> 01:47:33,519
Speaker 2: Trump theorized multiple times that Obama would start a war

2281
01:47:33,520 --> 01:47:34,959
Speaker 2: with Iran in order.

2282
01:47:34,760 --> 01:47:36,320
Speaker 4: To bolster his popularity.

2283
01:47:36,360 --> 01:47:40,000
Speaker 8: Take a listen, Our president will start a war with

2284
01:47:40,120 --> 01:47:44,280
Speaker 8: Iran because he has absolutely no ability to negotiate.

2285
01:47:44,720 --> 01:47:47,840
Speaker 6: He's weak and he's ineffective. So the only.

2286
01:47:47,600 --> 01:47:50,080
Speaker 8: Way he figures that he's going to get re elected

2287
01:47:50,479 --> 01:47:53,400
Speaker 8: and as sure as you're sitting there is to start.

2288
01:47:53,080 --> 01:47:54,000
Speaker 6: A war with a Ran.

2289
01:47:54,880 --> 01:47:57,559
Speaker 2: Now, if he still thinks war with Iran is good politics,

2290
01:47:57,600 --> 01:48:00,680
Speaker 2: he is a complete and utter fool that possibility to

2291
01:48:00,680 --> 01:48:02,719
Speaker 2: put off the table. By the way, but he also

2292
01:48:02,760 --> 01:48:05,160
Speaker 2: may not really care about his approval ratings as much

2293
01:48:05,160 --> 01:48:07,439
Speaker 2: as he cares about the power he can grab. And

2294
01:48:07,560 --> 01:48:10,479
Speaker 2: everyone who lived through the post nine to eleven power

2295
01:48:10,520 --> 01:48:12,920
Speaker 2: grab knows that a president can grab a hell of

2296
01:48:12,920 --> 01:48:15,400
Speaker 2: a lot of power during times of war. Now, these

2297
01:48:15,400 --> 01:48:18,479
Speaker 2: are just a few possible directions Trump could take as

2298
01:48:18,479 --> 01:48:20,920
Speaker 2: his poll number slide, and he must resort to ever

2299
01:48:21,000 --> 01:48:24,760
Speaker 2: more extraordinary means to stifle dissent. Obviously, they're already trying

2300
01:48:24,760 --> 01:48:27,960
Speaker 2: to coerce universities, law firms, media courts, and business. I

2301
01:48:28,000 --> 01:48:30,640
Speaker 2: would pay, though, very close attention to what happens on

2302
01:48:30,720 --> 01:48:34,559
Speaker 2: April April twentieth, since the Insurrection Act seems like the

2303
01:48:34,600 --> 01:48:38,440
Speaker 2: easiest cheat code for this administration to expand their lawlessness

2304
01:48:38,439 --> 01:48:41,000
Speaker 2: on immigration to lawlessness with regard to.

2305
01:48:41,000 --> 01:48:42,360
Speaker 4: The entire population.

2306
01:48:42,760 --> 01:48:45,360
Speaker 2: After all, Trump sends out right, they want to be

2307
01:48:45,400 --> 01:48:50,040
Speaker 2: able to disappear Americans, just like they did kill Abrego Garcia.

2308
01:48:50,560 --> 01:48:53,200
Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah, that was in Why do you think there's

2309
01:48:53,600 --> 01:48:55,080
Speaker 8: special category of person.

2310
01:48:55,280 --> 01:48:57,120
Speaker 6: They're as bad as anybody that comes in.

2311
01:48:57,360 --> 01:48:59,559
Speaker 2: Now, the Insurrection Act to me seems like the most

2312
01:48:59,640 --> 01:49:03,800
Speaker 2: likely path to effectuating that outcome. Trump considered it, of course,

2313
01:49:03,800 --> 01:49:06,200
Speaker 2: invoking the Insurrection Act twice in his first term, once

2314
01:49:06,200 --> 01:49:09,439
Speaker 2: against Black Lives Matter protesters again leading up to January sixth.

2315
01:49:09,640 --> 01:49:12,080
Speaker 2: In both instances, he was held back by some more

2316
01:49:12,160 --> 01:49:16,400
Speaker 2: establishment figures within his administration. But this administration none of

2317
01:49:16,400 --> 01:49:19,400
Speaker 2: those types of voices remain this time around. You should

2318
01:49:19,400 --> 01:49:22,840
Speaker 2: take him seriously and literally and assume that whatever your

2319
01:49:22,880 --> 01:49:26,920
Speaker 2: worst case scenario is, the reality is likely to be worse.

2320
01:49:27,400 --> 01:49:30,639
Speaker 2: And Sagur, I do think you know, we both talked

2321
01:49:30,680 --> 01:49:33,080
Speaker 2: about after that meeting with Kelly in his office, where

2322
01:49:33,160 --> 01:49:36,200
Speaker 2: number one, they're completely flouting the Nino Supreme Court ruling.

2323
01:49:36,640 --> 01:49:39,719
Speaker 2: They are refusing to do anything to bring a Brego

2324
01:49:39,800 --> 01:49:43,559
Speaker 2: Garcia back, and they are completely lying about all of that,

2325
01:49:43,840 --> 01:49:48,000
Speaker 2: and he announces we want the homegrowns next. I wasn't

2326
01:49:48,040 --> 01:49:49,840
Speaker 2: able to add it into this monologue, but I saw

2327
01:49:49,880 --> 01:49:52,080
Speaker 2: that the Kelly has said he wants to double the

2328
01:49:52,160 --> 01:49:56,000
Speaker 2: size of Seacott and said specifically it will be up

2329
01:49:56,040 --> 01:49:58,919
Speaker 2: to the Americans to fill it. So that's the landscape

2330
01:49:58,920 --> 01:50:02,280
Speaker 2: that we're facing as his popularity slides, and he's going

2331
01:50:02,360 --> 01:50:05,320
Speaker 2: to face more and more descent and more and more resistance.

2332
01:50:05,400 --> 01:50:07,160
Speaker 3: I think it's possible, but it's like I said, I

2333
01:50:07,160 --> 01:50:12,240
Speaker 3: would not I would further not underestimate he both trying

2334
01:50:12,280 --> 01:50:17,000
Speaker 3: to quote save face. But even more importantly, we're already

2335
01:50:17,080 --> 01:50:20,799
Speaker 3: watching a we are already watching here in the Supreme

2336
01:50:20,840 --> 01:50:23,880
Speaker 3: Court and other era. They know in some ways that

2337
01:50:23,880 --> 01:50:25,800
Speaker 3: they're in a difficult position. I think there's a reason

2338
01:50:25,840 --> 01:50:29,360
Speaker 3: that there hasn't been another Alien Enemies Act deportation since

2339
01:50:29,400 --> 01:50:32,160
Speaker 3: the It's been a month right now since that has happened.

2340
01:50:32,200 --> 01:50:34,320
Speaker 3: I mean it presumably if they thought that they were

2341
01:50:34,320 --> 01:50:36,439
Speaker 3: on good standing, that's something they would continue to do.

2342
01:50:36,680 --> 01:50:38,720
Speaker 3: They've been blocked in right now, They've been blocked in

2343
01:50:38,760 --> 01:50:42,320
Speaker 3: multiple jurisdictions under Tros. I guess for now they have

2344
01:50:42,360 --> 01:50:45,680
Speaker 3: decided not to participate in that in some ways. Like

2345
01:50:45,760 --> 01:50:48,800
Speaker 3: with Dose, what we watched is they start extreme and

2346
01:50:48,840 --> 01:50:51,519
Speaker 3: then they pair back over time. So I don't I'm

2347
01:50:51,560 --> 01:50:54,439
Speaker 3: not going to dismiss that. I also would not count

2348
01:50:54,439 --> 01:50:57,679
Speaker 3: out the possibility that as they continue to get backed

2349
01:50:57,680 --> 01:50:59,960
Speaker 3: and backed and back into a corner that they are

2350
01:51:00,080 --> 01:51:02,760
Speaker 3: also become frankly a little bit more of what they

2351
01:51:02,760 --> 01:51:05,800
Speaker 3: were like in the twenty twenties, not or sorry, in

2352
01:51:06,760 --> 01:51:09,880
Speaker 3: the late twenty tens whenever they were first in office,

2353
01:51:09,920 --> 01:51:13,400
Speaker 3: where largely like Trump, did not really do anything after

2354
01:51:13,439 --> 01:51:16,320
Speaker 3: the TCJA outside of foreign policy.

2355
01:51:16,400 --> 01:51:17,759
Speaker 4: Well he's January sixth.

2356
01:51:17,960 --> 01:51:19,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was at the end. I mean it's a

2357
01:51:19,200 --> 01:51:20,000
Speaker 1: little different.

2358
01:51:19,800 --> 01:51:23,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, but that is. It is analogous though, because that's

2359
01:51:23,360 --> 01:51:27,120
Speaker 2: when his you know, he loses the election. Whether he

2360
01:51:27,200 --> 01:51:28,960
Speaker 2: believed that in his mind or not, I don't think he.

2361
01:51:29,600 --> 01:51:32,120
Speaker 2: I think he did know that he lost, and that's

2362
01:51:32,160 --> 01:51:36,320
Speaker 2: when his most extreme authoritarian instincts came out, is when

2363
01:51:36,360 --> 01:51:39,400
Speaker 2: he actually had suffered his most severe political blow. And

2364
01:51:39,479 --> 01:51:41,960
Speaker 2: you know, I mean, if you look at other authoritarian regimes,

2365
01:51:42,000 --> 01:51:43,840
Speaker 2: you see a similar thing. When the public rises up,

2366
01:51:43,880 --> 01:51:45,840
Speaker 2: then what do they do. They crack down, right, Because

2367
01:51:45,840 --> 01:51:48,360
Speaker 2: to your point about hi quote unquote saving face, his

2368
01:51:48,520 --> 01:51:51,200
Speaker 2: version of saving face is making sure there aren't mass

2369
01:51:51,240 --> 01:51:53,800
Speaker 2: protests in the street, making sure that he can do

2370
01:51:53,840 --> 01:51:55,719
Speaker 2: what he wants and not have to listen to the courts,

2371
01:51:55,720 --> 01:51:56,200
Speaker 2: et cetera.

2372
01:51:56,600 --> 01:51:59,200
Speaker 4: So listen, I could be wrong, but.

2373
01:52:00,120 --> 01:52:01,519
Speaker 1: I'm not just missing it out of hand. I know

2374
01:52:01,560 --> 01:52:02,080
Speaker 1: you alleing it.

2375
01:52:02,160 --> 01:52:02,760
Speaker 4: I know you aren't.

2376
01:52:02,920 --> 01:52:05,080
Speaker 3: I think I think three months ago I would have scoffed.

2377
01:52:05,080 --> 01:52:06,599
Speaker 3: I would have been like, that's a joke. I'm I'm

2378
01:52:06,600 --> 01:52:08,439
Speaker 3: not going to say that, Okay, Like I'm being honest.

2379
01:52:08,600 --> 01:52:11,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I do think I'm just putting the pieces

2380
01:52:11,760 --> 01:52:17,360
Speaker 2: together of we know this direction with them designating pro

2381
01:52:17,439 --> 01:52:24,439
Speaker 2: Palestine activists, hands off protesters, anti Tesla protesters, now people

2382
01:52:24,439 --> 01:52:29,920
Speaker 2: who oppose deportations as terrorists, right or giving material support

2383
01:52:30,000 --> 01:52:30,960
Speaker 2: to terrorists.

2384
01:52:31,240 --> 01:52:32,679
Speaker 4: So you have that in place.

2385
01:52:33,200 --> 01:52:35,720
Speaker 2: You have this executive orders signed on day one that

2386
01:52:35,720 --> 01:52:37,479
Speaker 2: says he's supposed to get this report about whether or

2387
01:52:37,520 --> 01:52:39,880
Speaker 2: not he should invoke the Insurrection Act. So you have

2388
01:52:39,960 --> 01:52:43,680
Speaker 2: that piece in place, and you have him saying we

2389
01:52:43,720 --> 01:52:46,759
Speaker 2: want to send the homegrowns to this El Salvador dungeon.

2390
01:52:47,240 --> 01:52:51,559
Speaker 2: So when I look at that landscape, I am very

2391
01:52:51,560 --> 01:52:55,200
Speaker 2: concerned about what's going to be happening in the next weeks.

2392
01:52:55,560 --> 01:52:58,080
Speaker 2: And you know, I think everybody should be paying very

2393
01:52:58,080 --> 01:53:00,160
Speaker 2: close attention to what happens in the comings.

2394
01:53:00,200 --> 01:53:01,519
Speaker 1: In particular, I don't disagree at all.

2395
01:53:02,320 --> 01:53:05,400
Speaker 3: I also think, you know, let's calibrate and say Insurrection

2396
01:53:05,520 --> 01:53:10,440
Speaker 3: Act on the border is like categorically different than insurrection

2397
01:53:10,560 --> 01:53:14,960
Speaker 3: Act on to whatever hands off protests. Like you said,

2398
01:53:15,000 --> 01:53:17,000
Speaker 3: yeah right, that is just completely different. I mean, you

2399
01:53:17,040 --> 01:53:18,600
Speaker 3: could be against it if you want to. Yeah, I

2400
01:53:18,600 --> 01:53:22,000
Speaker 3: think the former is probably pretty popular. The difference, I

2401
01:53:22,040 --> 01:53:25,679
Speaker 3: think is that on the court cases and on the precedent,

2402
01:53:26,000 --> 01:53:29,599
Speaker 3: it's become clear to me that it's not even about

2403
01:53:30,200 --> 01:53:32,360
Speaker 3: because I'm not so sure. I know there's a lot,

2404
01:53:32,360 --> 01:53:34,760
Speaker 3: there's a leftist straight of thought. They believe that they

2405
01:53:34,800 --> 01:53:37,040
Speaker 3: intentionally grabbed up Garcia.

2406
01:53:37,240 --> 01:53:38,040
Speaker 1: I don't think so.

2407
01:53:38,439 --> 01:53:41,920
Speaker 3: I think it was complete incompetence and stupidous.

2408
01:53:41,960 --> 01:53:44,680
Speaker 4: I agree with that. I don't think that they intentionally

2409
01:53:44,720 --> 01:53:45,400
Speaker 4: grabbed him up.

2410
01:53:45,520 --> 01:53:49,240
Speaker 2: But I do think the fact that they've leaned into

2411
01:53:49,280 --> 01:53:52,439
Speaker 2: this so aggressively. I mean, look at Jade Vance posting

2412
01:53:52,520 --> 01:53:55,280
Speaker 2: all over Twitter all day long, Pam Bondi coming out

2413
01:53:55,280 --> 01:53:58,679
Speaker 2: and releasing, you know again, the Field report that supposedly

2414
01:53:58,760 --> 01:54:01,320
Speaker 2: claim from this like dirty who got fired weeks later

2415
01:54:01,439 --> 01:54:03,360
Speaker 2: that he was a gang member because of the Chicago

2416
01:54:03,400 --> 01:54:06,400
Speaker 2: bulls at you know, Caroline Levitt lying and saying he's

2417
01:54:06,400 --> 01:54:08,519
Speaker 2: a human trafficker. No one has ever said that. There

2418
01:54:08,560 --> 01:54:11,000
Speaker 2: is no evidence that has ever been the case. So

2419
01:54:11,439 --> 01:54:13,559
Speaker 2: I think it was an accident, just like I think

2420
01:54:13,680 --> 01:54:16,840
Speaker 2: with Machmukulio, I don't think that they knew that he

2421
01:54:16,920 --> 01:54:18,080
Speaker 2: was a legal permanent resident.

2422
01:54:18,240 --> 01:54:18,479
Speaker 1: Agree.

2423
01:54:18,680 --> 01:54:22,080
Speaker 2: But I do think once they find those things down

2424
01:54:22,640 --> 01:54:25,400
Speaker 2: and they insist on saying the course and taking this

2425
01:54:25,560 --> 01:54:29,479
Speaker 2: maximal's position, I think that's what ultimately matters. And with

2426
01:54:29,680 --> 01:54:32,800
Speaker 2: Abrego Arcia, the reason they don't want him to come

2427
01:54:32,840 --> 01:54:35,240
Speaker 2: back is because if you open up the possibility of

2428
01:54:35,320 --> 01:54:38,000
Speaker 2: some sort of legal process of course to retrieve these people,

2429
01:54:38,080 --> 01:54:40,560
Speaker 2: these plans are done. You can't send American citizens there.

2430
01:54:40,600 --> 01:54:42,560
Speaker 2: You can't send these you know, ninety percent of these

2431
01:54:42,600 --> 01:54:46,920
Speaker 2: people had nothing, no criminal record whatsoever. And so that

2432
01:54:47,040 --> 01:54:51,160
Speaker 2: plan and that avenue towards the lawlessness that is over.

2433
01:54:51,280 --> 01:54:53,120
Speaker 2: And so that's why they're fighting so hard on this,

2434
01:54:53,200 --> 01:54:55,280
Speaker 2: because if they can get away with this one, they

2435
01:54:55,320 --> 01:54:57,879
Speaker 2: can get away with anyone with anyone right.

2436
01:54:57,720 --> 01:54:59,960
Speaker 1: Which is of course why they're doing it. I don't

2437
01:55:00,000 --> 01:55:00,960
Speaker 1: I will.

2438
01:55:01,040 --> 01:55:02,640
Speaker 3: We'll have to check back in a couple of weeks,

2439
01:55:02,680 --> 01:55:05,160
Speaker 3: like you said, because I think it could vary.

2440
01:55:05,200 --> 01:55:06,160
Speaker 1: I'm not downplaying at all.

2441
01:55:06,240 --> 01:55:08,560
Speaker 3: I absolutely think it could go in that direction. I

2442
01:55:08,600 --> 01:55:11,040
Speaker 3: also would not count out the same petering out that

2443
01:55:11,080 --> 01:55:13,920
Speaker 3: we've seen with Doge. I mean they've effectively surrendered. No,

2444
01:55:14,240 --> 01:55:15,720
Speaker 3: like we just did a whole block about that.

2445
01:55:16,280 --> 01:55:16,360
Speaker 2: Now.

2446
01:55:16,360 --> 01:55:18,120
Speaker 3: I'm not saying the damage wasn't done, and I don't

2447
01:55:18,120 --> 01:55:21,240
Speaker 3: think it's good. But you know, Trump and all of that.

2448
01:55:21,280 --> 01:55:25,560
Speaker 3: He is in the past was relatively nimble in moving

2449
01:55:25,600 --> 01:55:28,720
Speaker 3: away from certain things. But you know, with the people

2450
01:55:28,720 --> 01:55:31,040
Speaker 3: around him and others, he may decide not to do that.

2451
01:55:31,360 --> 01:55:34,280
Speaker 3: But he did back away from several unpopular things in

2452
01:55:34,320 --> 01:55:36,760
Speaker 3: his first term. But he also views doing that and

2453
01:55:36,800 --> 01:55:38,840
Speaker 3: getting into media pressure as one of the great mistakes.

2454
01:55:38,920 --> 01:55:40,720
Speaker 1: Was closed to see, which is definitely one of the

2455
01:55:40,720 --> 01:55:42,280
Speaker 1: differences that we see here around.

2456
01:55:42,280 --> 01:55:42,880
Speaker 4: So that's a good point.

2457
01:55:43,120 --> 01:55:45,680
Speaker 1: We'll see, Okay, we will see you all. I guess

2458
01:55:45,800 --> 01:55:46,800
Speaker 1: no Friday show tomorrow.

2459
01:55:46,840 --> 01:55:47,360
Speaker 4: I'll forget