1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,960 Speaker 1: Cau Zone Media. Hey, folks, it's me Ed, So I'm 2 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:10,000 Speaker 1: off this week, get my wisdom teeth out finally time. 3 00:00:10,360 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 1: But I'm going to rerun this episode the rock com Bubble, 4 00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:14,720 Speaker 1: and I want to be clear that this is two 5 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 1: years old. It's gonna I am sure at some point. 6 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:19,120 Speaker 1: I'm like, this is going to end in three quarters, 7 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 1: which I was. I was wrong about that one. Nevertheless, 8 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:24,599 Speaker 1: this is an important piece because I think everything about 9 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: the AI bubble comes back to the rock com bubble, 10 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:29,520 Speaker 1: which is the idea that the big companies they run 11 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:31,920 Speaker 1: out of hypergrowth ideas they don't have a new smartphone, 12 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 1: they don't have a new cloud computing. And I think 13 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 1: this episode is super educational, and yeah, I'm taking a 14 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 1: week off, so enjoy this. Remember it's from like September 15 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. But nevertheless, it's very, very important that 16 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 1: you listen to this as I think that this is 17 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 1: going to be kind of formative to the future. Anyway. Enjoy, Hello, 18 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 1: and welcome to Better Offline. I'm your Hoe stad Ze Tron. 19 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 1: In the next two episodes, I want to present you 20 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 1: with a theory about why the tech industry has felt 21 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: so weird for the last few years, and why there 22 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:22,040 Speaker 1: are so many products that have popped up that don't 23 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 1: seem to really do anything or be things that people 24 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 1: have actually asked for. And it comes down to a 25 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,319 Speaker 1: few simple questions, chief of them, what if the next 26 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: big thing in tech is actually years or decades away? 27 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 1: What if the era of hypergrowth in tech is over now? 28 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 1: As I've mentioned before, I believe the rot economy is 29 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 1: to blame for a lot of this. It's a growth 30 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:45,240 Speaker 1: at all cost mindset that sits at the core of 31 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 1: pretty much everything I've written or spoken about. It's this 32 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 1: force that drives businesses to grow bigger rather than better, 33 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 1: and make products to conquer markets and show growth to 34 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: the public markets, rather than fixing a problem that you 35 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: or I might have or a business might have, or 36 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: provide a necessary service that was nevertheless popular and profitable. 37 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 1: And the rot economy doesn't feel like any other economic 38 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 1: period I've seen. It's not like, say, I don't know 39 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 1: the post two thousand and eight financial crisis or that 40 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 1: stagnation that lingered afterwards. And what's different was there isn't 41 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 1: really a single obvious event that started the decline of 42 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: the services we're using all the companies that make them, 43 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:25,239 Speaker 1: and there's not really like a Layman Brothers crater we 44 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:27,359 Speaker 1: can point out and say, there you go, that's the thing. 45 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,080 Speaker 1: The closest I can come is kind of FTX, which 46 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 1: was the big crypto crash, the big massive Ponzi scheme 47 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 1: that no one really saw coming other than many people 48 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 1: who were looking behind the scenes. But other than that, 49 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 1: that was kind of what crashed crypto. And maybe it 50 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 1: was the end of the zero interest free era where 51 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 1: interest rates went up and it was harder to get money. 52 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 1: But it was no one thing you could point out. 53 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 1: But I do want to try, and I have one 54 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 1: epoch I think for when the rot economy kind of 55 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 1: took over, and I'd want to point to the latter 56 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 1: point of the twenty tens. Think about it, like really 57 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 1: think about it for a second. Sometime after twenty nineteen, 58 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 1: the tech industry it cand of lost its sizzle. There 59 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 1: were new gadgets, there were new apps, new services, but 60 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 1: tech started to feel iterative rather than innovative. Yet they 61 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:18,839 Speaker 1: were making more money than ever, and by twenty twenty one, 62 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 1: even the pretense of any gradual improvement was really dropped. 63 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 1: It felt like, I don't know, they were trying to 64 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:28,519 Speaker 1: sell us things that didn't really exist. We were told 65 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 1: that NFTs would replace physical, tangible collectibles, and that cryptocurrency 66 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 1: would replace regular money, while also emancipating customers for an 67 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 1: unstoppable market force like inflation or big tech. Because of 68 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 1: course cryptocurrency came with it the idea and a mean 69 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 1: idea of decentralized software, and this was all meant to 70 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 1: get rid of rent seeking middle men that were taking 71 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 1: parts of every purchase, despite the very same middle men 72 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 1: investing in cryptocurrency. Yet the actual services that came out 73 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 1: of these movements didn't really seem to do anything or 74 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 1: improve our lives in any meaningful way. And we were 75 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:08,080 Speaker 1: told at one point that our futures were in the 76 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 1: meta US and we lived in this massive interconnected called 77 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 1: New Internet. When we actually got there, it was just 78 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 1: this really wonky VR virtual reality space that Mark Zuckerberg 79 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 1: has somehow burned thirty six billion dollars on. It's all 80 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 1: so weird. And today we're told that we have this 81 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: glorious AI powered future that's just imminent. Yet what we've 82 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: actually got is this unprofitable, unsustainable generative AI that has 83 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 1: this horrible unastainable problem of hallucination, where it spits out 84 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 1: incorrect information authoritatively, which, worryingly, Google CEO Sander Pesha has 85 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:47,359 Speaker 1: said in an interview with The Verge is an inherent 86 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 1: feature of a technology that he's now plugged into Google Search, 87 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 1: which means it's generating these horrible answers to queries based 88 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 1: on the links of a search engine that Sandar Peshai 89 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 1: has helped decay. It's all just very frustrating, and it's 90 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:06,600 Speaker 1: also quite useless. Kind of it logical too. And at 91 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: the forefront of this AI boom is Sam Moltman and 92 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 1: his eighty billion dollar Jugger or open AI, a company 93 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:15,920 Speaker 1: that claims it's going to build artificial general intelligence, one 94 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:20,240 Speaker 1: that experiences human like cognition, which is just not possible 95 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:22,919 Speaker 1: with generative AI. The tech he is selling today is 96 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 1: not going to give us AGI. I just want to 97 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:28,480 Speaker 1: be abundantly clear about that. Anytime you read Sam Mortman 98 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: talking about AGI, he is talking about tech the Open 99 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:34,040 Speaker 1: AI does not have and is not building. They may 100 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:36,479 Speaker 1: claim they're building it behind the scenes, but they're only 101 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 1: working on generative AI. And the frustration you hear in 102 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:42,919 Speaker 1: my voice, you might have felt yourself. You might not have, 103 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:46,279 Speaker 1: but it's this prevailing sense of you keep telling me 104 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 1: the future is here, but when I look at what 105 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:52,560 Speaker 1: the future is, it isn't even close. And the products 106 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: you're selling me aren't actually useful. Let me give you 107 00:05:56,480 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: another example. Windows laptops will soon integrate an AI high 108 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:03,719 Speaker 1: powered search feature called Recall that allows you to search 109 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:06,479 Speaker 1: everything you've ever done on your computer in the last 110 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 1: three months. And it does so by recording everything, everything 111 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 1: from the meetings you've been into to the things you've written. 112 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:16,839 Speaker 1: I should be clear, I don't think anybody actually asked 113 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 1: for a feature like this, and it's also inherently invasive. 114 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:24,279 Speaker 1: It directly encroaches on your privacy and your security, and 115 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 1: it takes screenshots of your machine every few seconds and 116 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 1: stores them, along with AI generated inferences, in a locally 117 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 1: held database. This isn't good, and the fact that they're 118 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,840 Speaker 1: not sending anywhere doesn't really make it better. It is, 119 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 1: in essence, a pre installed screen recorder, the kind of 120 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 1: thing that hacker might install on a victim's computer, and 121 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 1: if an attack against access to it, it's obvious how 122 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:52,840 Speaker 1: catastrophic the ramifications are. Or let's be honest, domestic abuses, 123 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 1: people at work. There are people who can get on 124 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: your computer, force access by forcing you or just getting 125 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:03,000 Speaker 1: your password, and they can now see everything you've done. 126 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 1: Despite this being an inherently AI powered feature. It just 127 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 1: it can't distinguish between your regular computer usage and say, 128 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: sensitive information passwords, health information, trade secrets, the very obvious 129 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: stuff you would not want your computer recording. It treats, 130 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 1: I don't know, like an email from your doctor with 131 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 1: the same level of concern and copying as it would 132 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 1: like YouTube or a chat conversation. It's just really bad 133 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: and already white hat security researchers they've created a proof 134 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 1: of concept malware applications that can pull sensitive data obtained 135 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 1: or generated by Microsoft Recall from your computer and with 136 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:46,239 Speaker 1: pretty minimal effort, And now the UK's Information Commissioner's Office, 137 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 1: the nation's privacy watchdog. By the way, they can actually 138 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 1: do quite steep fines. It's not great. They're now probing 139 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 1: whether the tech actually presents an unacceptable risk to consumers, 140 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 1: which as anyone who thinks about it for more than 141 00:07:57,520 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 1: twelve seconds or even five can confirm it does. It's 142 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 1: just very frustrating, and who asked for this, who actually 143 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 1: asked for this? Now, every major tech company they're integrating 144 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 1: AI into their products and services. Yeah, underneath the hood, 145 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 1: the AI they're integrating doesn't actually seem to do anything new, 146 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: or generate a profit or solve anyone's actual needs. Even 147 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 1: the companies themselves seem incapable of explaining why AI is 148 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 1: such a big deal. To the point of the Microsoft Super 149 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 1: Bowl commercial for its AI powered co pilot assistant featured 150 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:34,839 Speaker 1: multiple things that it cannot do, like generate the code 151 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 1: for an open world game. When you, by the way, 152 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: you type in the prompt, which on the commercial is 153 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:42,559 Speaker 1: three D generate the code for an open world three 154 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:44,839 Speaker 1: D game, and you type that in and it will 155 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 1: give you a list of things you should do to 156 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 1: build an open world game. It's so strange, and it's 157 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: so strange how so many of these companies just can't 158 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:59,199 Speaker 1: really explain why this is the next best thing. They 159 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 1: just need you to be even And maybe that might 160 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:16,840 Speaker 1: actually be the problem. For decades, the tech industry and 161 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 1: its various venture capital funders, they've been remarkably good at 162 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:23,199 Speaker 1: coming up with both innovative new products and ways to 163 00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 1: turn them into huge new markets For hypergrowth, one hundred 164 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:29,320 Speaker 1: billion trillion dollar markets that they could then sell in 165 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 1: to investing companies. Within actual industries, you had search engines, 166 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 1: digital maps, smartphones and apps, social media, cloud computing, software 167 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: as a service, electro cars, streaming audio and video. And 168 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:45,199 Speaker 1: also another thing. In the period between like two thousand 169 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 1: and five and twenty twenty four, we've tripled the amount 170 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 1: of people on the Internet. It's now over five billion 171 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: people who use it. And that's also another problem I'll 172 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 1: get to in a little bit. There were obvious meaningful 173 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 1: markets to move into. Ways to connect people, ways to 174 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 1: get people content, they wanted algorithms to present it to them, 175 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 1: ways to sell people, Things that solve problems that they 176 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 1: had or either for the first time or solving them faster, 177 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:10,079 Speaker 1: like the transition from physical to digital media, and problems 178 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 1: that were both important to solve and actually solvable. Teke 179 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 1: has perpetually succeeded at building things, new things that neatly 180 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 1: create these new markets, and they've been incentivized by both 181 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 1: the public and private markets in growing these companies as 182 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 1: fast and as big as possible to dominate these new markets, 183 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 1: with the assumption that there would always be more of them. 184 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 1: More massive, multi billion and multi trillion dollar markets to conquer, 185 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:40,480 Speaker 1: and it must be clear you should never assume anything. 186 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 1: Between twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three, only one 187 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:49,319 Speaker 1: hundred million additional people got online, which is the slowest 188 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:52,720 Speaker 1: rate of growth in the last eighteen years. And that's 189 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:55,160 Speaker 1: not because the need to bring connectivity to the masses 190 00:10:55,480 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 1: is actually solved. Especially in the global South. It hasn't been. 191 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 1: And as of the most recent figures from the UN's 192 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 1: International Telecoms Union shows thirty three percent of the world's population, 193 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 1: or about two point six billion people, have never actually 194 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 1: used the Internet. But I have more worrying stuff. I've 195 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 1: received some data from similar Web that shows that the 196 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 1: majority of the Internet's top one hundred web properties have 197 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:23,560 Speaker 1: seen significant declines in traffic since twenty twenty one. In 198 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 1: the years since the world slowly emerged from lockdown, Google 199 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:28,719 Speaker 1: dot com has seen the decline of five point three 200 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: percent in web visits, as has YouTube, which lost three 201 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:34,959 Speaker 1: point eight percent of its traffic, Facebook, which lost a 202 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 1: remarkable twenty seven point seven percent, Twitter which lost three 203 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:42,960 Speaker 1: point five percent, Amazon which lost eleven point six percent, 204 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 1: Twitch dot tv seventeen point five percent lost there. They 205 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 1: are owned by Amazon. Sadly, Wikipedia, which lost twenty four 206 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:52,199 Speaker 1: point eight percent of its traffic. And here's the thing 207 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 1: that really worried me. Porn sites like ex videos twenty 208 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 1: seven point four percent loss and porn harp seventeen point 209 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 1: one percent loss. When the pawns down, that's that's when 210 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:06,200 Speaker 1: you start worrying. Though you might be tempted to dismiss 211 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 1: this all as a result of life returning to normal 212 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 1: and the traditional office based environments aren't particularly conducive to 213 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 1: a crafty mid day wank, you shouldn't. The trend actually 214 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 1: began earlier, with similar Web data showing the declines starting 215 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen. My analysis focus is in twenty twenty 216 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:25,560 Speaker 1: one to twenty twenty four because that's the one I 217 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:27,720 Speaker 1: have the most detailed month by month and year by 218 00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 1: year breakdowns for. And by the way, I'm going to 219 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,679 Speaker 1: put in the episode notes links to things so that 220 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 1: you can all see this. I want you to know 221 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 1: this date is very worrying. But don't trust me. Trust 222 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:40,959 Speaker 1: the data from similar Web. When you look at the 223 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,719 Speaker 1: trajectory of the web's most valuable properties on a year 224 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:48,680 Speaker 1: over year basis, things look quite bleak, with Google which 225 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 1: lost about point nine percent, YouTube lost about four point 226 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 1: four percent, Facebook seven point seven percent loss, Twitter six 227 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 1: point two percent loss, Twitch eleven point nine percent loss, 228 00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 1: and Amazon two point seven one percent loss, all still 229 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 1: seeing significant de clients. Only a few sites like Reddit, 230 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:08,319 Speaker 1: which saw a thirty one point three percent growth, TikTok 231 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 1: eleven point six percent growth, and Instagram nine point nine 232 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 1: percent growth but trending down every year since twenty nineteen, 233 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:17,840 Speaker 1: and also LinkedIn up seventeen point nine percent. They're the 234 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 1: only ones that are really seeing good year over year growth. 235 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:23,320 Speaker 1: And while it's important to note that these are visits 236 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:25,959 Speaker 1: rather than active users, and in fairness, this data only 237 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 1: covers visits made through a browser rather than an app, 238 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:33,080 Speaker 1: this is still a truly astounding trend that suggests, for 239 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:35,880 Speaker 1: the most part that the web's largest platforms are seeing 240 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 1: kind of a digital recession. While there might be revenue 241 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 1: coming to these companies and they might still be acquiring 242 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:45,440 Speaker 1: no users, there's really no good way to spin the 243 00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:49,559 Speaker 1: fact that traffic to platforms like Amazon and Google has plateaued, 244 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 1: then declined, something shifting downwards, and it's been doing so 245 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 1: since twenty nineteen. Perhaps this explains why platforms like Google 246 00:13:57,160 --> 00:14:00,319 Speaker 1: and Facebook have kept making changes to make each USERG journey, 247 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 1: create more engagement and make it more profitable to sustain 248 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 1: growth because fewer people than ever are actually visiting the platforms. 249 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 1: I believe her at the end of something I called 250 00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 1: the rockcom boom, the tech industry's hypergrowth cycle, where there 251 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 1: were so many new lands to conquer, so many new 252 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 1: ways to pile money into, so many new innovative, useful ideas, 253 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:25,760 Speaker 1: that it felt like every tech company could experience perpetual 254 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 1: growth just by throwing money at a problem. It also 255 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 1: explains why so many tech products YouTube, Google, Search, Facebook, 256 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 1: and so on feel like they're either trapped in amber 257 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 1: or like they've got tangibly worse, because when you think 258 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:41,480 Speaker 1: about it, when there's no incentive to improve the things 259 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 1: you've already built, why would you You should just be 260 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 1: working on the next big thing or new ways to 261 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 1: reduce the thing you have right now to keep people 262 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:53,280 Speaker 1: coming back, Yeah, maybe, but to keep people on the platform, 263 00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 1: sometimes by monopolizing an industry so they have nowhere else 264 00:14:56,280 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 1: to go. And that's the thing. All of these come companies, Facebook, Google, Amazon, 265 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 1: I mean all of them. They've all built themselves on 266 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:09,800 Speaker 1: this very simple idea that they'd always be a next 267 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 1: big thing. And I'm not even saying that they won't be, 268 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 1: but they've assumed, and the problem that they're facing right 269 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 1: now is that there would always be one around the corner. 270 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 1: This belief that exponential growth is not just a reasonable 271 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 1: expectation but a requirement is central to the core of 272 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 1: the rot in the tech industry. And as these rapacious 273 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: demands run into reality, I'm sorry to say that the 274 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 1: rockcom bubble is going to deflate. And as we speak, 275 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 1: the tech industry they're grappling with somewhat of a midlife crisis, 276 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 1: and they're desperately searching for that next hyper growth market, 277 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 1: and they're eagerly pushing customers and businesses to adopt this 278 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 1: technology that nobody actually asked for. They must keep the 279 00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 1: rot economy alive because if they don't, they're gonna they're 280 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 1: gonna have to face the fact that they've built pretty 281 00:15:56,600 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 1: unsustainable businesses. Even though they're profitable, they keep growing. The 282 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:17,160 Speaker 1: only thing that grows forever is cancer. The raw economy 283 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 1: and takes growth lust. It isn't new, though venture capital 284 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:23,080 Speaker 1: has been incentivizing and monetizing rot for over a decade, 285 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:25,920 Speaker 1: and Mark andrew's An advocated in twenty eleven that we 286 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 1: should look to expand the number of innovative new software 287 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 1: companies created rather than constantly questioning their valuations. Yet just 288 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 1: a year earlier, in March twenty ten, his partner Ben Horowitz, 289 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 1: he advocated for fat startups, and I'll link to that 290 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 1: in the notes, saying that you can't save your way 291 00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 1: to winning the market, and that startup purgatory is when 292 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:48,920 Speaker 1: you don't go bankrupt, but you fail to build the 293 00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 1: number one product in this space and have zero chance 294 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 1: of becoming a high growth company, which, by the way, 295 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 1: Horowitz described this as worse than startup hell because you 296 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 1: are and I quote stuck with the small company, even 297 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,360 Speaker 1: if it's cash flow positive. At the time, this might 298 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:06,680 Speaker 1: have made sense to them because this mindset made them 299 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:11,560 Speaker 1: quite rich, even though there's something inherently abnormal about describing 300 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:16,400 Speaker 1: being a staple profitable company as being an estate that's 301 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 1: worse than hell. Anyway, I want you to take a 302 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:23,240 Speaker 1: step back in time with me, though, and think about 303 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 1: how much has changed in the last ten years, fifteen years. 304 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:33,359 Speaker 1: Think about it for a second. In twenty ten, it 305 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:36,120 Speaker 1: felt like we were just making our first steps into 306 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 1: the digital world. It was still pretty new twenty ten. 307 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 1: There was no Instacart. There was no Zoom, no Snapchat, 308 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,680 Speaker 1: no Lyft, no Tinder, no Slack, no Snowflake, no door Dash, 309 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 1: no TikTok, no Discord, no Coinbase, no Robinhood. And there 310 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:54,320 Speaker 1: wasn't any Venmo or Zel either. Tesla, Facebook, LinkedIn, Airbnb, Uber, Square, Alassian, Octa, 311 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 1: Mongo dB, work Day, Palo Alto networks, Asana, UiPath, Spotify. 312 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:02,840 Speaker 1: They hadn't even gone public. Instagram was still independent, it 313 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:06,960 Speaker 1: wasn't part of Facebook yet, and consumer drones they hadn't reached. Ubiquity, 314 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 1: voice assistance hadn't even been launched. Full gled networks they 315 00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 1: were brand new, and Amazon Web Services, one of the 316 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 1: most profitable things in the world, as I'll get to, 317 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,840 Speaker 1: was on course to make six hundred million dollars in 318 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:22,720 Speaker 1: revenue in twenty ten, which is, by the way, two 319 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,760 Speaker 1: point five percent of the twenty four billion that AWS 320 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 1: on its own made in the first quarter of twenty 321 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 1: twenty four. Google and Apples stock prices were worth less 322 00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:33,680 Speaker 1: than a tenth of what they are today, and Nvidia, 323 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:36,680 Speaker 1: a stock now worth over one thousand dollars traded at 324 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:40,160 Speaker 1: under three dollars a share. Between two thousand and five 325 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:43,400 Speaker 1: and twenty eighteen, we saw this incredible surge of innovation 326 00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:48,160 Speaker 1: and tech valuations, and this kind of seemingly unstoppable period 327 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 1: of growth and big sexy ideas that created big, sexier 328 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 1: new markets. While applications existed in two thousand and eight, 329 00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:58,639 Speaker 1: Apple's App Store and the perpetual nature of connection that 330 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 1: we get from smartphones. It consumerized the concept of distinct 331 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,119 Speaker 1: service based apps, as well as the overall concept of 332 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 1: software ecosystems, which has become a multi trillion dollar philosophical 333 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 1: and economic force, and it's changed just about everything about 334 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,280 Speaker 1: how we communicate and even do business. It's remarkable and 335 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,199 Speaker 1: also was a new market just sitting there waiting for 336 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 1: the hardware and software to catch up with it, and 337 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:25,440 Speaker 1: for someone to come up with the idea, of course, 338 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 1: connecting people digitally through social media, voice, video, and so on. 339 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:34,239 Speaker 1: It's been central to the hypergrowth cycle, with innovations like 340 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:37,959 Speaker 1: connectivity and cloud infrastructure allowing multiple companies to carve out 341 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:42,120 Speaker 1: these one hundred billion and trillion dollar ecosystems on some level, 342 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 1: big tech companies could put money through research and development, investment, 343 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,280 Speaker 1: or acquisitions wherever they needed to as a means of 344 00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:50,760 Speaker 1: making the future a reality, and thanks to the fact 345 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: that interest rates were rock bottom and there was a 346 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:57,040 Speaker 1: lot of private money going into startups, they were never 347 00:19:57,040 --> 00:20:01,080 Speaker 1: really short of cash to do so. One point, hype 348 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:04,320 Speaker 1: began to outpace innovation, and while there were new ideas, 349 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:08,879 Speaker 1: the actual fundamental technology required to actually innovate may not 350 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:12,399 Speaker 1: actually exist, making a lot of these ideas theoretical and 351 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:16,640 Speaker 1: so far behind the cart that you may as well 352 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 1: shoot the horse dead. When Mark Zuckerberg renamed Facebook to Meta, 353 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 1: he told Casey Newton, who by the way, should feel 354 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,240 Speaker 1: nothing but shame for accepting this in good faith, that 355 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,159 Speaker 1: he believed the metaverse was an embodied Internet that was 356 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:34,560 Speaker 1: a persistent, synchronous environment that would resembles social media but 357 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 1: also be an environment where you're embodied in it. That's 358 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 1: a real quote. By the way, This is of course 359 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:44,359 Speaker 1: total nonsense, a total word salad that will make you 360 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 1: throw up, conjured up by somebody without any real ideas 361 00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:52,400 Speaker 1: that knows that they won't receive any pushback on them anyway, 362 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,080 Speaker 1: not even from those whose job it is to scrutinize 363 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,679 Speaker 1: the tech industry and ask the difficult questions so that 364 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 1: people don't buy stupid Anyway, what Zuckerberg had actually built, 365 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,480 Speaker 1: by which for the most part I mean acquired, was 366 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 1: a half fast virtual world accessed through niche virtual reality 367 00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 1: technology that nobody asked for, that already kind of existed, 368 00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,439 Speaker 1: that made people sick, and that Meta couldn't actually build. 369 00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,639 Speaker 1: And what Mark Zuckerberg wanted to do was built the 370 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 1: successor to the mobile Internet in the hopes that quote 371 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:25,320 Speaker 1: the metaverse would be another hypergrowth industry where people would 372 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:28,439 Speaker 1: buy land which they didn't, or hang out on mass 373 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:30,919 Speaker 1: which they didn't, or have meetings which they did not, 374 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 1: all while sharing data and watching ads served by Meta 375 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:38,439 Speaker 1: and other companies that Meta could sell ads too. In 376 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,680 Speaker 1: this cynical, horrible version of the future, the Internet, neutral 377 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 1: standards based and controlled by no single company would be 378 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,920 Speaker 1: transformed into a platform, a feudal system where Meta would 379 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 1: set the rules an exactor cut from each engagement, interaction 380 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,159 Speaker 1: and transaction. It was quite plainly a power grad the 381 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,560 Speaker 1: likes of which the Internet hasn't seen since the bleak 382 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,200 Speaker 1: days of Internet Explorer six and Active X if you 383 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,400 Speaker 1: don't know what those are. Microsoft has some evil things 384 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:07,200 Speaker 1: in the past. The tech, however, it was never there. 385 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,399 Speaker 1: Mark Zuckerberg sold everybody on the concept of a Ready 386 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,399 Speaker 1: Player one Metaverus and putting aside for a second that 387 00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 1: Ready Player one is a poorly written dystopia. This vision 388 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 1: hinges heavily on the idea of technology that completely immerses 389 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,399 Speaker 1: the user and their senses and makes them feel like 390 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:28,640 Speaker 1: they're actually in a world, which is just insane. It's 391 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,280 Speaker 1: not possible, It's not even close to possible. We're talking 392 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:34,919 Speaker 1: about full sensory takeover and the ability to traverse the 393 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 1: digital world somehow without moving. This would be a revolution, 394 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,360 Speaker 1: both in cloud computing because just the raw data would 395 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:48,400 Speaker 1: be insane, but also immersive technology. Just what was everyone 396 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 1: doing accepting this idea, And let's be honest, the reality 397 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 1: was just so much worse. You had these nausea inducing 398 00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:59,919 Speaker 1: headsets that led you into this horrible, clunky, cartoon world. 399 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 1: It wasn't fun or practical or useful, and tens of 400 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,520 Speaker 1: billions of dollars of R and D costs developing headsets 401 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 1: that lose money on every sale. It's just insane. By 402 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,680 Speaker 1: the way, Mark Zuckerberg has spent tens of billions of dollars, 403 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 1: and I realized sometimes people don't like it when I 404 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:17,639 Speaker 1: get yelly, and I apologize. But where has the thirty 405 00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 1: billion dollars gone? What has Mark Zuckerberg done with it? 406 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,600 Speaker 1: Where is it going? I don't know. I'm not accusing 407 00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:26,760 Speaker 1: anyone of anything, but the whole thing just feels like 408 00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 1: a con. And Zuckerberg's glossy Metaverse video the first one 409 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:34,040 Speaker 1: he published when they rebranded Facebook to Meta. It was 410 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:38,080 Speaker 1: significant in quite a few ways. First of all, the 411 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:42,160 Speaker 1: most disgusting bullshit I've ever seen a tech company put out, 412 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 1: just complete lies. But it was also a demonstration of 413 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:48,719 Speaker 1: the company's future ambitions and directions, and it showed exactly 414 00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 1: what they hoped they could build. And had Zuckerberg actually 415 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:54,919 Speaker 1: done so, I would have said it would have been 416 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,680 Speaker 1: a success, But said success would have been predicated on 417 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,199 Speaker 1: a pace of innovation that we haven't had in for 418 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:04,640 Speaker 1: a decade or longer. I don't actually know how we 419 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,760 Speaker 1: get to anything close to what Mark Zuckerberg was selling, 420 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:11,640 Speaker 1: But forty billion dollars later, the Metaverse is just nowhere 421 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,679 Speaker 1: near close to existing. And yet he keeps burning cash 422 00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:16,400 Speaker 1: in the hopes that he can get just one more 423 00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,199 Speaker 1: hit of hypergrowth. Man, that's all Mark Zuckerberg needs. Just 424 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,560 Speaker 1: one more hit, brother, Just give me a little more growth. 425 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 1: I'll be okay. I swear I won't need any in 426 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 1: the future. Putting that aside, I really think this is 427 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,600 Speaker 1: why Zuckerberg is so full force on generative AI. He 428 00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,680 Speaker 1: shoved it into every meta platform now, regardless of whether 429 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:37,520 Speaker 1: it does anything useful, whether it's doing anything weird, like 430 00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 1: commenting on a parenting group that it has a gifted 431 00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:43,600 Speaker 1: child and telling parents where to take their kids. It's 432 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,480 Speaker 1: just so weird. And it's the same reason that Sun 433 00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 1: Dhar Pashai and Liz Reader forcing generative AI into Google Search, 434 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 1: even as it misinforms customers and it's recommending people put 435 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 1: glue on their pizza and eat rocks, and it's claiming 436 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,919 Speaker 1: that Barack Obama is a muzzle, and it's regurgitating stories 437 00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:06,440 Speaker 1: from the Onion as indisputable fact, and it's just it's 438 00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,359 Speaker 1: very frustrating. You can hear it in my voice. But 439 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:12,240 Speaker 1: it all comes down to a simple problem, which is 440 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:16,440 Speaker 1: the tech industry is getting withdrawal symptoms. They're realizing there 441 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:20,080 Speaker 1: might not be any massive new markets. They might not 442 00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,359 Speaker 1: be another way to create another billion dollar arm of 443 00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:26,560 Speaker 1: a trillion dollar enterprise. And on some level, I believe 444 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:31,359 Speaker 1: that the industry wide alignment around this unprofitable, unsustainable AI 445 00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 1: tool is just proof that they're getting desperate and that 446 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,680 Speaker 1: some of them might be irredeemably washed. Why else would 447 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:42,200 Speaker 1: Sam Altman spend most of the time talking about what 448 00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:46,199 Speaker 1: AI might do. Why else would Sam Altman talk so 449 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:50,160 Speaker 1: often about building artificial general intelligence, a thing that, as 450 00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,639 Speaker 1: I have mentioned, is totally and utterly impossible to build 451 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:57,160 Speaker 1: with any of the generative AI tech his company makes, 452 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:02,240 Speaker 1: and likely requires kinds of computing that do not exist. Yet. 453 00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 1: It's really frustrating, and the rock com bubble bursting is 454 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,600 Speaker 1: it's going to be nasty for bid Tech. It's going 455 00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,199 Speaker 1: to wash out at least one of these companies, and 456 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,800 Speaker 1: it might take years to happen. But the growth trend 457 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:21,600 Speaker 1: is reversing. Every single one of these companies with a 458 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:25,960 Speaker 1: few exceptions, I realize, is seeing traffic declines and they're 459 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 1: not improving. Perhaps they will find new ways, but where 460 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,480 Speaker 1: are they going to find them? What are the things 461 00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 1: they're going to do? What happens when none of this 462 00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 1: stuff actually is the future. What happens when Google Search 463 00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:45,880 Speaker 1: tells someone to actually do something that kills them how 464 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,040 Speaker 1: to clean up a chemical firing correctly, for example. There 465 00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:52,159 Speaker 1: are very real ways that these things are going to 466 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 1: hurt people. But putting that aside, even if they don't, 467 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,520 Speaker 1: they're not going to make them the kind of money 468 00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,159 Speaker 1: and get them the kind of customers that they needed 469 00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:05,119 Speaker 1: to perpetually show perpetual growth. As I said last episode, 470 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:09,240 Speaker 1: two episodes ago, Facebook is dying and Facebook's dying because 471 00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,640 Speaker 1: I actually believe Mark Zuckerberg is quite innovative about one thing, 472 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:16,720 Speaker 1: which is he can smell blood in the water, except 473 00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:20,040 Speaker 1: now he can smell his I think Mark Zuckerberg realized 474 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:23,280 Speaker 1: that this was happening many years before everybody else, and 475 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,440 Speaker 1: that's why he pushed the metaverus in twenty twenty one. 476 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:27,720 Speaker 1: That's why he was talking about Web three and twenty 477 00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,679 Speaker 1: twenty one. That was a very very easy year to 478 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:32,800 Speaker 1: get money, and it was a year when people were 479 00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,359 Speaker 1: aggressively buying things, so it was a great time to 480 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,320 Speaker 1: sell new ideas. Also, I think he read Ready Player 481 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:41,159 Speaker 1: one and they actually liked it, which is so strange. 482 00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 1: But either way, I do think Zuckerberg's an innovator because 483 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,440 Speaker 1: he's realized that the highpergrowth era is over and he's 484 00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:51,760 Speaker 1: really trying to create the next best thing. Now, Notice 485 00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:55,800 Speaker 1: I didn't say something good or something useful. That's just 486 00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 1: not in Zuckerberg's DNA, and it's not in Sundhar Pashai 487 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:04,159 Speaker 1: or sam Or or satch In Adela's either Microsoft, Amazon, Meta. 488 00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,399 Speaker 1: These companies are not innovative anymore because they're no longer 489 00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:10,159 Speaker 1: engineered to be. When the living was free and easy, 490 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 1: when there were tons of these markets to attack and 491 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:15,080 Speaker 1: grow and eat and shit out the other way and 492 00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:19,320 Speaker 1: make money from, they just needed a management consultant mindset. 493 00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 1: It was growth at all costs. It was growth all 494 00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:23,200 Speaker 1: the time, because all they had to do was throw 495 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 1: more money at the problem and they'd always keep growing. 496 00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:30,120 Speaker 1: And to their credit, they have been. But mark my words, 497 00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:34,000 Speaker 1: they're not going to grow forever. And they don't have 498 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:38,200 Speaker 1: a next trick. They don't have the next one billion 499 00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 1: user product, they don't have the next innovation, and I 500 00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:43,640 Speaker 1: don't think they're going to have it for a long time. 501 00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:47,480 Speaker 1: And this is why all of this stuff feels kind 502 00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:50,880 Speaker 1: of weird. It's why all of this stuff doesn't seem 503 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 1: to be solving a need that you or I have, 504 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:55,760 Speaker 1: or that even a business has, And it's why so 505 00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,720 Speaker 1: often it feels like they're pleading with us to believe 506 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:02,800 Speaker 1: that this is the future. Companies that build useful things 507 00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 1: that people need don't need to talk about what they're 508 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,480 Speaker 1: build in the future. You can see it in the 509 00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,440 Speaker 1: things they're selling you today. You could see in the 510 00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,880 Speaker 1: early days of cloud computing, how you bickered with storage 511 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:18,040 Speaker 1: like Dropbox or Box might have existed. I was using FTT. 512 00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:23,280 Speaker 1: Thank god for Dropbox, honestly, but seriously, you could see 513 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 1: why these things were the future. And in the next episode, 514 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:30,160 Speaker 1: I'm going to walk you through how the tech industries 515 00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 1: promises no longer actually seem to match their ability to 516 00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:37,160 Speaker 1: build things and how this desperation I've been discussing shows 517 00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:40,479 Speaker 1: that were close to the rockcom bubble bursting. Thanks for listening, 518 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,160 Speaker 1: Thank you for listening to Better Offline. The editor and 519 00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,360 Speaker 1: composer of the Better Offline theme song is Matasowski. You 520 00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:56,600 Speaker 1: can check out more of his music and audio projects 521 00:29:56,760 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 1: at Matasowski dot com m Att w Ski dot com. 522 00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,040 Speaker 1: You can email me at easy at Better Offline dot 523 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,280 Speaker 1: com or visit better Offline dot com to find more 524 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:11,720 Speaker 1: podcast links and of course my newsletter. I also really 525 00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:13,920 Speaker 1: recommend you go to chat dot Where's Youreed dot at 526 00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,480 Speaker 1: to visit the discord, and go to our slash Better 527 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:19,680 Speaker 1: Offline to check out our reddit. Thank you so much 528 00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:23,560 Speaker 1: for listening. Better Offline is a production of cool Zone Media. 529 00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,520 Speaker 1: For more from cool Zone Media, visit our website cool 530 00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:29,960 Speaker 1: Zonemedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 531 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,680 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.