WEBVTT - Daybreak Weekend: US CPI, London Tech Summit, China Eco

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at

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<v Speaker 2>the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak

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<v Speaker 2>anchors all around the world. Straight Ahead on the program,

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<v Speaker 2>a look ahead to some key inflation data in the

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<v Speaker 2>US how that may impact monetary policy for the FED.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Tom Busby in New York.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Caroline Hedge in London, where we're asking if the

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<v Speaker 3>UK has what it takes to become a global tech superpower.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm Doug Christner looking at what we may learn from

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<v Speaker 4>next week's data on the Chinese economy.

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<v Speaker 1>That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>eleven three to zero, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg ninety two nine, Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London, Sirius

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<v Speaker 1>XM one twenty one, and around the world on Bloomberg Radio,

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<v Speaker 1>dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App.

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<v Speaker 2>Good day to you. I'm Tom Busby. We begin today's

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<v Speaker 2>program with some key inflation data here in the US.

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<v Speaker 2>The consumer price index for May on Wednesday, the producer

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<v Speaker 2>price index for that same month out on Thursday. For

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<v Speaker 2>more on what to look for and how that data

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<v Speaker 2>may impact the fed's next decision on rates. Were joined

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<v Speaker 2>by Edward Harrison, senior editor at Bloomberg and author of

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's The Everything Risk newsletter. Edward, thank you so much

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<v Speaker 2>for being here.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, good to talk to you.

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<v Speaker 4>Tom.

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<v Speaker 2>A slightly better than forecast made jobs report this past

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<v Speaker 2>week after a lot of incoming data not as upbeat.

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<v Speaker 2>So what does this job's report tell you in regarding

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<v Speaker 2>the Fed? And what are you expecting to see in

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<v Speaker 2>these May CPI and PPI reports.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so, Tom, I think that the headline number tells

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<v Speaker 5>the equity market that the jobs market is not falling apart,

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<v Speaker 5>the economy is not falling apart. We got one hundred

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<v Speaker 5>and thirty nine thousand added to nonfarm payrolls, which was

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<v Speaker 5>ahead of expectations, and we had the unemployment rate staying

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<v Speaker 5>solid at four point two percent. Those numbers just on

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<v Speaker 5>the surface, it says that you know, the labor markets

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<v Speaker 5>not falling apart, and that's what you actually would have

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<v Speaker 5>needed to get to galvanize the Federal reserve to cut

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<v Speaker 5>rates more quickly than anticipated. So, given that the Fed's

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<v Speaker 5>going to be on hold and as a result of that,

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<v Speaker 5>the CPI and the PPI are less important in terms

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<v Speaker 5>of the Fed's thinking in terms of the rate decision

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<v Speaker 5>going forward.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, what are the big drivers for inflation right now,

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<v Speaker 2>both for consumers and businesses? And you say it's a

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<v Speaker 2>little less important, still key for them, still, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe not so much as the PCE, but they're still

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<v Speaker 2>going to look at it very closely.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, there are two things. One is that we still

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<v Speaker 5>have services inflation, which is above where they would like

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<v Speaker 5>it to be. That's still sticky. And then the second

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<v Speaker 5>thing is that we're seeing a pass through of the

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<v Speaker 5>goods inflation that comes from the tariffs into into the

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<v Speaker 5>numbers the companies are talking about passing on the price increases.

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<v Speaker 5>So these numbers that we're going to see are from May,

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<v Speaker 5>and as a result, you can think of them as

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<v Speaker 5>after the fact, after the the the tariffs were put on,

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<v Speaker 5>But they're not. They're not consistent with the data, the

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<v Speaker 5>incoming data that we're seeing, which is that you know,

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<v Speaker 5>there is inflation in the pipeline, and so given that

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<v Speaker 5>that means that the Fed is going to continue to

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<v Speaker 5>be on the whole. The only reason that they would

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<v Speaker 5>actually cut rates more aggressively. Is if we had numbers

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<v Speaker 5>that came out last week from the jobs report that

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<v Speaker 5>showed the economy stalling in a very precipitous way.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, let's let's continue on with the tariffs, because in

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<v Speaker 2>these reports that we're going to see this coming week,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe just at least a hint, a little hint of

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<v Speaker 2>the impact of the tariffs. But we have that ninety

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<v Speaker 2>day reprieve on most tariffs expires in July. Is that

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<v Speaker 2>when we're really going to see the impact.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, you know, I think that actually the June CPI

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<v Speaker 5>and PPI numbers will show you a little bit more

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<v Speaker 5>of what's there. It is interesting that if you look

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<v Speaker 5>at just the month on month numbers, the consensus is

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<v Speaker 5>for zero point three percent CPI taking out food and energy,

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<v Speaker 5>so you know, sort of the core CPI number, which

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<v Speaker 5>is higher than it was in April. But you know,

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<v Speaker 5>if that number is actually high, let's say zero point

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<v Speaker 5>four percent, as you know, a miss to the upside,

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<v Speaker 5>then you could say to yourself already in maybe we're

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<v Speaker 5>seeing these numbers have impacted. We certainly will see them

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<v Speaker 5>therefore impacted in June. That would make the Fed even

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<v Speaker 5>more reticent about lowering interest rates, despite by the way,

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<v Speaker 5>the fact that Donald Trump last week was saying that

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<v Speaker 5>power should lower interest rates by one full percentage point.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, a little more about the tariffs. We know there

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<v Speaker 2>are talks slated to happen. They're supposed to happen with China,

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<v Speaker 2>the European Union, they've been on and off, even Japan.

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<v Speaker 2>But is there any clear read that you're seeing on

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<v Speaker 2>what these negotiations are going to bring as far as

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<v Speaker 2>you know, a tariff deal, a trade deal with these

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<v Speaker 2>countries and the EU.

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<v Speaker 5>No, and there's no clear deal that's there. I think

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<v Speaker 5>there are three countries Japan, the EU, and China that

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<v Speaker 5>are outstanding which are definitely going to impact inflation and

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<v Speaker 5>therefore the economy. There was actually a report from Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 5>that the trade negotiators for the United States were fighting

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<v Speaker 5>amongst each other in front of the Japanese delegation, and

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<v Speaker 5>that certainly doesn't lead to any sort of positive outcome. Moreover,

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<v Speaker 5>this whole old taco trade that people talk about, the

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<v Speaker 5>fact that Trump eventually backs down only leads to the

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<v Speaker 5>negotiators from the other side thinking, you know, we have

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<v Speaker 5>some leverage here if we played chicken because eventually he'll

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<v Speaker 5>cave on or you know, he'll back out in some regard.

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<v Speaker 5>So I think that, you know, there's a lot of

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<v Speaker 5>risk associated with that. And just going back to the

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<v Speaker 5>jobs numbers for a second, really, even though the equity

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<v Speaker 5>market thinks of this in a positive way and it's

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<v Speaker 5>not going to galvanize the FED, the internals of the

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<v Speaker 5>numbers were actually not as good as you might think.

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<v Speaker 5>That the household survey showed labor participation going down. There

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<v Speaker 5>were a negative ninety five two month payroll net revision,

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<v Speaker 5>so that means that really we only saw forty four

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<v Speaker 5>thousand net jobs if you take revisions into account. So

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<v Speaker 5>the labor market is slowing, it's just not slowing enough

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<v Speaker 5>to galvanize the FED to start to cut rates. And

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<v Speaker 5>then you have the backdrop of these negotiations which aren't

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<v Speaker 5>really going anywhere at this point, and that sort of

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<v Speaker 5>downside risk for equities in particular.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, a lot of variables for the FED to consider,

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<v Speaker 2>including the may CPI out on Wednesday, the may PPI

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<v Speaker 2>on Thursday. Our thanks to Edward Harrison, senior editor at

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg and author of Bloomberg's The Everything Risk newsletter. We

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<v Speaker 2>turn now to the ev maker Tesla, which is scheduled

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<v Speaker 2>to launch its long delayed robo taxi service this week

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<v Speaker 2>in Austin, Texas. For more on that expected launch, we're

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<v Speaker 2>joined by Craig Trudell, Bloomberg's Global Autos editor. Well, Craig,

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<v Speaker 2>thanks so much for joining us. Let's start with what

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<v Speaker 2>is Tesla expected to do this Thursday in Austin, And

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<v Speaker 2>after all the delays and setbacks, will it be ready?

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<v Speaker 6>You know, that's the big question. But there are so

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<v Speaker 6>many questions about Tesla's plans for this upcoming week that

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<v Speaker 6>are still very much unanswered. I mean, even starting with

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<v Speaker 6>that timing right where Bloomberg was first to report that

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<v Speaker 6>the company was aiming for June twelve, we haven't heard

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<v Speaker 6>anything to the contrary, at least to the point where

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<v Speaker 6>you and I are speaking. But that number still has

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<v Speaker 6>not been confirmed by the company. And you know, what

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<v Speaker 6>we do know is is Elon Musk has talked about

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<v Speaker 6>you know, sort of starting slows, starting with a small

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<v Speaker 6>number of Model Y vehicles that they'll run around Austin.

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<v Speaker 6>We don't know sort of you know, specifics about what

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<v Speaker 6>areas of the city that they expect to run these

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<v Speaker 6>these driver lists, you know, rides, we don't know what

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<v Speaker 6>time of day, and some of these details are important

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<v Speaker 6>because it can make real differences as to you know,

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<v Speaker 6>how many other cars are out on the road, how

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<v Speaker 6>challenging is it for these cars to sort of navigate

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<v Speaker 6>those situations. And so you know, there's a lot of

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<v Speaker 6>specifics that the company has yet to address that will

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<v Speaker 6>be really important to sort of suss out, you know

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<v Speaker 6>in the days toccomme.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, not even how many cars they're going to put

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<v Speaker 2>on the road this week.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, what we've heard Musks say is something on the

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<v Speaker 6>order of ten or twenty, So we're talking really small.

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<v Speaker 6>This is you know, I guess what you would call

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<v Speaker 6>in the tech business a soft launch. And you know,

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<v Speaker 6>Musk has talked about, you know, scaling up quickly, but

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<v Speaker 6>I think we have to kind of take that with

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<v Speaker 6>a grain of salt because he's talked about, you know,

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<v Speaker 6>putting driverless cars on the road you know, anytime now,

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<v Speaker 6>year after year, and you know, we will see, we

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<v Speaker 6>will see if twenty twenty five is his year.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we know that Tesla has for years been doing

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of work. It's been testing these autonomous cars

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<v Speaker 2>out on closed roads. It's been gathering data for years

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<v Speaker 2>working on machine learning, and it has of course that

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<v Speaker 2>controversial some would say misnamed full self driving mode, which

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<v Speaker 2>I know you reported on just last week, involved in

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<v Speaker 2>a recent string of sometimes deadly crashes. So with all that,

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<v Speaker 2>can it still compete against Waimo and GM's Cruise, which

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<v Speaker 2>packed it in after ten years because it was just

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<v Speaker 2>too expensive.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, you know, I think with Cruise the sort of

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<v Speaker 6>you know, thing that we took away from. One of

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<v Speaker 6>the things to take away from that was, you know,

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<v Speaker 6>it can come down to a single crash, a single

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<v Speaker 6>crash that in Crusi's case, actually didn't result in a fatality,

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<v Speaker 6>but it was a gruesome one and unfortunate one. Nonetheless,

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<v Speaker 6>the company's handling of that and sort of running a

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<v Speaker 6>foul of you know, the local regulators that was working

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<v Speaker 6>with in San Francisco, you know, really ultimately led to

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<v Speaker 6>GM deciding, you know what, we're going to pull the

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<v Speaker 6>plug on this company. And I go back to you know,

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<v Speaker 6>twenty eighteen, there was a similar incident in the case

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<v Speaker 6>of Uber right where they had a self driving test

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<v Speaker 6>vehicle that was involved in a fatal crash, and that

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<v Speaker 6>ultimately led Uber to decide to get out of this space.

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<v Speaker 6>So part of the reason why this is such a

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<v Speaker 6>big story in terms of, you know, having a closer

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<v Speaker 6>look at one of the fatal crashes that has resulted

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<v Speaker 6>from people using full self driving is we the public

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<v Speaker 6>are much less tolerant of crashes in which a robot

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<v Speaker 6>or sort of you know, something other and a human

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<v Speaker 6>is involved in running the car. And you know, in

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<v Speaker 6>this case, it was a crash that you know, sort

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<v Speaker 6>of avoided the headlines. Initially, it took the US safety regulator,

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<v Speaker 6>the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, investigating full self driving

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<v Speaker 6>on the basis of this and a few other crashes

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<v Speaker 6>for it to really come to light and get our

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<v Speaker 6>attention and lead to us seeking out some public records

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<v Speaker 6>to learn more about what happened.

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<v Speaker 2>And these aren't isolated incidents with with Tesla and it's

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<v Speaker 2>full self driving. I mean, there is there is a

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<v Speaker 2>paper trail on this, right, a number of incidents.

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<v Speaker 6>That's right, full self driving has not been around as

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<v Speaker 6>long as autopilot, but that's the other sort of branding

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<v Speaker 6>that that Tesla has used for sort of lower level

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<v Speaker 6>capability of you know, driver ass as features and I

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<v Speaker 6>would say, you know, when you look at this, you

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<v Speaker 6>know long track record of autopilot and full self driving,

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<v Speaker 6>there have been a string of investigations into whether these

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<v Speaker 6>are defective, and one of those investigations involving autopilot actually

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<v Speaker 6>got to the point where Nitsa said to Tesla, look,

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<v Speaker 6>we think that there's a safety risk here that you

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<v Speaker 6>need to address for the recall. It led to Tesla

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<v Speaker 6>recalling two million cars, and you know, in a matter

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<v Speaker 6>of a few months, Nitsa came back to Tesla and said,

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<v Speaker 6>you know what, we're not sure that the remedy that

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<v Speaker 6>you offered to address you know, what we were raising

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<v Speaker 6>was sufficient. And so not only is Tesla under investigation

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<v Speaker 6>with respect to full self driving, it's also you know,

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<v Speaker 6>under a pending investigation a query as to whether that

0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:39.839
<v Speaker 6>recall that it did to sort of, you know, make

0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:43.120
<v Speaker 6>autopilots safer to use, whether or not that went far enough.

0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:46.040
<v Speaker 2>Well, Thursday, June twelfth, the expected launch date for the

0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:49.880
<v Speaker 2>Tesla robotaxi in Austin, Texas. Our thanks to Bloomberg's Global

0:12:49.920 --> 0:12:53.760
<v Speaker 2>autos editor Craig Drudell, coming up on Bloomberg Day Break weekend, Well,

0:12:53.760 --> 0:12:56.199
<v Speaker 2>look at whether the UK has what it takes to

0:12:56.280 --> 0:12:59.800
<v Speaker 2>become a global tech superpower. I'm Tom Busby and this

0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:04.760
<v Speaker 2>this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break weekend, our

0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:07.120
<v Speaker 2>global look ahead at the top stories for investors in

0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:10.040
<v Speaker 2>the coming week. I'm Tom Busby and New York Up.

0:13:10.200 --> 0:13:12.199
<v Speaker 2>Later in our program we'll look ahead to some key

0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:15.800
<v Speaker 2>economic data coming out in China. But first, tech leaders

0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:18.240
<v Speaker 2>from around the world will gather in the UK capital

0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:21.640
<v Speaker 2>for the London Tech Summit, with speakers ranging from the

0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:24.720
<v Speaker 2>inventor of the World Wide Web to renowned professors, even

0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:28.480
<v Speaker 2>some tech CEOs. Forty thousand tech enthusiasts set to flock

0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:31.319
<v Speaker 2>to Olympia for a week of panel discussions. But with

0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:35.080
<v Speaker 2>stiff competition from innovators around the world, can the UK

0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:38.600
<v Speaker 2>keep up with the global tech revolution for more, Let's

0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:41.160
<v Speaker 2>get to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor

0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:43.200
<v Speaker 2>Caroline Hepgar Tom.

0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:46.480
<v Speaker 3>The Great Tech Race has been a permanent feature of

0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:49.439
<v Speaker 3>the corporate world for much of twenty twenty five. The

0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:53.880
<v Speaker 3>rise of the Chinese artificial intelligence startup Deep Seek has

0:13:53.920 --> 0:13:57.520
<v Speaker 3>only added attention to the issue. In February, the company

0:13:57.600 --> 0:14:01.360
<v Speaker 3>released an open source model that it said rivaled software

0:14:01.640 --> 0:14:05.040
<v Speaker 3>from the top American AI developers, and it claimed to

0:14:05.120 --> 0:14:08.679
<v Speaker 3>have done so for a fraction of the development cost

0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:13.920
<v Speaker 3>using less powerful hardware. And now global businesses including Meta,

0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:17.480
<v Speaker 3>are busy buying several hundreds of acres in a bid

0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:22.840
<v Speaker 3>to build data centers capable of fueling their AI focused dreams.

0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:27.200
<v Speaker 3>Primig Intelligence is senior tech industry analyst says the world's

0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:30.600
<v Speaker 3>biggest tech firms are all in when it comes to

0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:34.080
<v Speaker 3>leveling up their artificial intelligence capabilities.

0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:37.920
<v Speaker 7>Just look at how far they have come in terms

0:14:38.000 --> 0:14:41.480
<v Speaker 7>of you know, infrastructure, Like a company like Google, Not

0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:45.400
<v Speaker 7>only are they designing their own data centers and you know,

0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:50.440
<v Speaker 7>creating their own chips, and now they are you know,

0:14:50.600 --> 0:14:54.080
<v Speaker 7>procuring power do they extend that they want to make

0:14:54.160 --> 0:14:58.880
<v Speaker 7>sure that these AI chips, which can have volatile power needs,

0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:03.040
<v Speaker 7>are more optimize when it comes to the efficiency of

0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:08.280
<v Speaker 7>their infrastructure. And that's why these hyperscaler companies really have

0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:11.720
<v Speaker 7>got so many different aspects to their mode. So it's

0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:15.400
<v Speaker 7>not just about the search algorithm or in the case

0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:18.440
<v Speaker 7>of Meta, you know, their social media knowledge graph. It

0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:21.880
<v Speaker 7>is about the entirety of how they run their infrastructure,

0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:24.360
<v Speaker 7>and that is what is a long term mode because

0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:28.720
<v Speaker 7>nobody else can operate at the scale at which these

0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:30.400
<v Speaker 7>hyperscalers are operating right now.

0:15:30.680 --> 0:15:34.840
<v Speaker 3>That was Bloomberg Intelligence's man Deep Singh speaking there. Well.

0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:39.200
<v Speaker 3>The UK's role in the AI and wider technology arms

0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:42.720
<v Speaker 3>race is something that I've been discussing with Bloomberg Daybreak

0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:48.320
<v Speaker 3>Europe anchor Tom McKenzie. As London Tech Week approaches, this

0:15:48.520 --> 0:15:51.080
<v Speaker 3>is always a really exciting week, isn't it. In London,

0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:54.600
<v Speaker 3>CEOs and visionaries are going to be arguing surely that

0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:58.200
<v Speaker 3>the UK can be one of the AI capitals of

0:15:58.320 --> 0:15:58.720
<v Speaker 3>the world.

0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:02.160
<v Speaker 8>Absolutely, and we're going to have government presence there at

0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:04.520
<v Speaker 8>London Tech Week. You have London Tech Week and you

0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:07.600
<v Speaker 8>have Founders Forum as well. In Paris, by the way,

0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:09.640
<v Speaker 8>you have Vivtech which is also drawing a lot of

0:16:09.640 --> 0:16:11.680
<v Speaker 8>these big names there. So there's the competition between Paris

0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:14.160
<v Speaker 8>and London next week as well. But certainly the government's involved.

0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:16.040
<v Speaker 8>Peter Carr will be there of course, the Secrety of

0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:19.800
<v Speaker 8>State in terms of science and innovation and technology. You

0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:22.360
<v Speaker 8>also have the likes of Matt Clifford, who is the

0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:25.960
<v Speaker 8>Prime Minister's advisor on AI, and they will be making

0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:28.640
<v Speaker 8>the case that London is the place to invest and

0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:31.840
<v Speaker 8>to innovate, and there are some data that backs that up.

0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:34.080
<v Speaker 8>In terms of fun flows, you have seen more money

0:16:34.240 --> 0:16:38.040
<v Speaker 8>moving into the tech sector last year from venture capital

0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:42.840
<v Speaker 8>into London into the UK than into France and Germany combined.

0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:46.440
<v Speaker 8>And we have some big name startups now that are

0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:48.760
<v Speaker 8>raising real capital and have an impact, companies like Wave

0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:51.560
<v Speaker 8>in the mobility space, which is valued at a little

0:16:51.600 --> 0:16:56.240
<v Speaker 8>over two billion US dollars. You have companies like Synthesia,

0:16:56.480 --> 0:17:00.640
<v Speaker 8>eleven Labs, Polyai, Luminance, Revolute, which is huge in terms

0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:03.840
<v Speaker 8>of fintech. So we do have examples of successful startups here.

0:17:03.920 --> 0:17:06.560
<v Speaker 8>There is money flowing in, but there is a lot

0:17:06.640 --> 0:17:09.639
<v Speaker 8>more to do, and in terms of positioning the UK

0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:11.480
<v Speaker 8>when it comes to AI, that is going to be

0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:14.320
<v Speaker 8>crucial in terms of the conversations I think going forward

0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:17.239
<v Speaker 8>and the kind of traction that government ministers can get

0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:18.920
<v Speaker 8>and that companies can get in terms of fundraising.

0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:21.679
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean the UK government website talking about London

0:17:21.760 --> 0:17:24.440
<v Speaker 3>becoming the epicenter of global innovation.

0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:27.399
<v Speaker 9>That's one side of things.

0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:30.480
<v Speaker 3>On the other, in recent days we've seen why saying

0:17:30.520 --> 0:17:33.480
<v Speaker 3>that it's going to move its listing primary listing to

0:17:33.600 --> 0:17:37.239
<v Speaker 3>the US. So there are some concerns also, aren't there.

0:17:37.480 --> 0:17:40.639
<v Speaker 8>And I'm glad you brought up wise because that really

0:17:40.800 --> 0:17:43.680
<v Speaker 8>points to one of the key hurdles, one of the

0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:47.600
<v Speaker 8>key headwinds for the UK. This, of course, the money

0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:52.080
<v Speaker 8>transfer business listed in twenty twenty one to great fanfare.

0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:55.800
<v Speaker 8>It's been one of the few tech companies listed in

0:17:55.840 --> 0:17:58.600
<v Speaker 8>the UK now, as you say, making that decision to

0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:00.680
<v Speaker 8>put its primal listing in the US, which tells a

0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:03.680
<v Speaker 8>bigger story. It tells a story about the valuations these

0:18:03.720 --> 0:18:06.440
<v Speaker 8>companies think they can get in the US market versus

0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:10.320
<v Speaker 8>here in the UK. It tells a story about companies

0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:15.480
<v Speaker 8>including for example, Delivery that was bought over and bought

0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:18.800
<v Speaker 8>by door Dash, Dark Trace which is brought by private equity.

0:18:19.119 --> 0:18:21.000
<v Speaker 8>The companies that are able to build here in terms

0:18:21.040 --> 0:18:24.440
<v Speaker 8>of the tech sector, they often then go to the

0:18:24.560 --> 0:18:27.119
<v Speaker 8>US to raise the bigger funds and to list. And

0:18:27.240 --> 0:18:29.400
<v Speaker 8>that is not a trend that we have seen stopping

0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:32.159
<v Speaker 8>despite changes that London Stock has changed have tried to

0:18:32.200 --> 0:18:35.000
<v Speaker 8>make so capital access to capital and the capital markets

0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:37.080
<v Speaker 8>is really key when it comes to the question of

0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:39.400
<v Speaker 8>how you scale and how you grow these businesses.

0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:44.280
<v Speaker 3>What about regulation when it comes to tech. I mean,

0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:49.720
<v Speaker 3>obviously global companies have a huge market in Europe and

0:18:50.119 --> 0:18:53.000
<v Speaker 3>the UK being sort of attached to that. What about

0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:57.440
<v Speaker 3>the idea of deregulation or how we regulate artificial intelligence

0:18:57.520 --> 0:18:59.679
<v Speaker 3>and other bits of the tech sphere.

0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:04.080
<v Speaker 8>Keir Starmer's government is actually taking a more proactive approach

0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:06.320
<v Speaker 8>in terms of looking at the opportunities versus the risk.

0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:09.440
<v Speaker 8>So the emphasis has shifted. Some would say that's because

0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:11.760
<v Speaker 8>the growth needs of this economy are so much more

0:19:11.800 --> 0:19:14.840
<v Speaker 8>acute that if you're looking for one alexir of growth,

0:19:15.240 --> 0:19:17.320
<v Speaker 8>AI could be that, So you have to reach for

0:19:17.320 --> 0:19:19.760
<v Speaker 8>the opportunities. The UK is still trying to carve out

0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:21.639
<v Speaker 8>what the regulatory framework is going to be. We have

0:19:21.680 --> 0:19:25.240
<v Speaker 8>an AI strategy. The European Union does have its AI

0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:28.040
<v Speaker 8>Safety Act that is being implemented gradually towards the end

0:19:28.080 --> 0:19:31.520
<v Speaker 8>of this year and into twenty twenty six. There's a

0:19:31.680 --> 0:19:35.640
<v Speaker 8>lot of pushback against that regulation still from the tech industry.

0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:38.560
<v Speaker 8>Where the UK lands on this will be interesting, Will

0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:41.680
<v Speaker 8>it align more with less a fair approach that we're

0:19:41.680 --> 0:19:44.160
<v Speaker 8>starting seeing at least the federal level in the US

0:19:44.240 --> 0:19:46.280
<v Speaker 8>when it comes to AI. Or will it start to

0:19:46.320 --> 0:19:49.520
<v Speaker 8>take account of the risk factors and take lessons from

0:19:49.720 --> 0:19:53.199
<v Speaker 8>what Europe's craft in terms of their regulations. It may

0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:54.040
<v Speaker 8>find a middle spot.

0:19:54.760 --> 0:19:57.960
<v Speaker 3>So do you think that artificial intelligence will dominate given

0:19:58.440 --> 0:20:01.360
<v Speaker 3>the questions about tak up about disruption?

0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:03.720
<v Speaker 9>How important is that going to be on the agenda

0:20:03.800 --> 0:20:04.680
<v Speaker 9>artificial intelligence?

0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:06.560
<v Speaker 8>There is one name that I have not mentioned yet,

0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:09.159
<v Speaker 8>and that is Jensen Huang of Nvidia, of course, the

0:20:09.240 --> 0:20:12.359
<v Speaker 8>CEO of that company that makes the AI accelerators that

0:20:12.440 --> 0:20:15.840
<v Speaker 8>has become the litmus test of AI demand that underpins

0:20:16.000 --> 0:20:18.639
<v Speaker 8>so much of this AI revolution that we're seeing. Jensen

0:20:18.720 --> 0:20:21.600
<v Speaker 8>Huang will be a keynote speaker at London Tech Week.

0:20:21.640 --> 0:20:24.320
<v Speaker 8>He will also be at Viva Tech, the event taking

0:20:24.359 --> 0:20:27.840
<v Speaker 8>place in Paris. So watch for any announcements from the

0:20:27.960 --> 0:20:33.000
<v Speaker 8>CEO of Nvidia. They are building and funding the build out,

0:20:33.040 --> 0:20:35.000
<v Speaker 8>of course of data centers in the US. They've announced

0:20:35.000 --> 0:20:37.800
<v Speaker 8>plans to invest in data centers in the UAE. What

0:20:38.080 --> 0:20:40.280
<v Speaker 8>is the data center story in the UK? What is

0:20:40.320 --> 0:20:43.119
<v Speaker 8>the data story data center story in Europe? How much

0:20:43.200 --> 0:20:46.359
<v Speaker 8>is Nvidia going to be investing in the infrastructure that

0:20:46.600 --> 0:20:50.399
<v Speaker 8>underpins the advancements and innovations that we're seeing in AI

0:20:50.600 --> 0:20:52.160
<v Speaker 8>and how is the UK trying to get a piece

0:20:52.160 --> 0:20:53.800
<v Speaker 8>of that. I think that's going to be something really

0:20:53.840 --> 0:20:56.280
<v Speaker 8>worth watching next week what we hear from Gensen Wang.

0:20:56.440 --> 0:20:59.320
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, although I have sort of heard this idea that

0:20:59.520 --> 0:21:02.800
<v Speaker 3>maybe those data centers are going to become less energy

0:21:02.840 --> 0:21:05.480
<v Speaker 3>hungry and so maybe, you know, as we get the

0:21:05.560 --> 0:21:08.800
<v Speaker 3>leaps forward in tech, that might be something in the future.

0:21:09.400 --> 0:21:11.560
<v Speaker 3>Going back to your point there about the UK and

0:21:12.080 --> 0:21:16.280
<v Speaker 3>its non EU status, does that help or hinder when

0:21:16.320 --> 0:21:20.920
<v Speaker 3>it comes to tech firms with regulation, with fundraising?

0:21:21.080 --> 0:21:22.480
<v Speaker 9>How are we seeing things now?

0:21:22.760 --> 0:21:25.159
<v Speaker 8>If you look just at the data in terms of

0:21:25.240 --> 0:21:28.320
<v Speaker 8>fun flows, in terms of talent, in terms of the

0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:31.920
<v Speaker 8>numbers of startups, then the UK again is ahead of

0:21:32.520 --> 0:21:35.520
<v Speaker 8>a number of its European peers. I think on the

0:21:35.640 --> 0:21:40.440
<v Speaker 8>regulatory question, the jury is probably still out. The screaming

0:21:40.560 --> 0:21:43.840
<v Speaker 8>question when you're in Continental Europe maan izon An event

0:21:43.880 --> 0:21:46.880
<v Speaker 8>a few weeks ago and the CEOs and the investors

0:21:46.880 --> 0:21:52.200
<v Speaker 8>I spoke to there in Germany talking about regulation in Europe. Regulation, regulation, regulation,

0:21:52.520 --> 0:21:54.080
<v Speaker 8>That's what they were banging on about in terms of

0:21:54.160 --> 0:21:57.119
<v Speaker 8>one of the key headwinds that are holding back, that

0:21:57.320 --> 0:22:00.760
<v Speaker 8>is holding back the build out of tech and the

0:22:00.840 --> 0:22:03.560
<v Speaker 8>ability to invest and scale in that economy, whether it's

0:22:03.800 --> 0:22:07.600
<v Speaker 8>ESG or DEI or AI regulations. One person at this

0:22:07.680 --> 0:22:11.240
<v Speaker 8>event quoted this line saying, you need to invest in Asia,

0:22:11.359 --> 0:22:13.480
<v Speaker 8>do business in the US, and holiday in Europe, and

0:22:13.520 --> 0:22:15.280
<v Speaker 8>they want to get away from that. In the UK,

0:22:15.600 --> 0:22:17.680
<v Speaker 8>it's slightly it is slightly different. We do not have

0:22:17.800 --> 0:22:20.359
<v Speaker 8>the EUAI Act. We don't have the same ESG and

0:22:20.440 --> 0:22:24.800
<v Speaker 8>DEI regulations that they have in Europe that those particular

0:22:24.840 --> 0:22:28.840
<v Speaker 8>participants were complaining about. We're starting to I'm trying to

0:22:28.880 --> 0:22:30.560
<v Speaker 8>find our footing in terms of what the AAR regulation

0:22:30.640 --> 0:22:32.159
<v Speaker 8>is going to look like. Here in the UK, we

0:22:32.359 --> 0:22:34.960
<v Speaker 8>have seen again the talent flow as well, some evidence

0:22:35.000 --> 0:22:37.399
<v Speaker 8>that talent is being drawn to the UK from the

0:22:37.560 --> 0:22:40.600
<v Speaker 8>US in small numbers, but some venture counselors I've spoken

0:22:40.640 --> 0:22:42.920
<v Speaker 8>to have said that as a result of the politics

0:22:42.960 --> 0:22:44.840
<v Speaker 8>of the US, we're seeing some of that talent move

0:22:45.119 --> 0:22:47.320
<v Speaker 8>to the UK. So we're benefiting from that. But talent

0:22:47.440 --> 0:22:49.080
<v Speaker 8>is another key piece of this because you can have

0:22:49.160 --> 0:22:51.920
<v Speaker 8>investors and you can have founders, but then finding the people,

0:22:52.000 --> 0:22:55.520
<v Speaker 8>the CFOs and the coos to actually implement that strategy

0:22:56.280 --> 0:22:58.880
<v Speaker 8>that is proving a challenge that kind of talent. There's

0:22:58.880 --> 0:22:59.879
<v Speaker 8>still a shortage there when it.

0:22:59.840 --> 0:23:03.040
<v Speaker 3>Come k Yeah, and the UK doesn't often perform well

0:23:03.119 --> 0:23:05.440
<v Speaker 3>when it comes to management in the UK if you

0:23:05.480 --> 0:23:08.560
<v Speaker 3>look at the kind of indices and yeah, we've you know,

0:23:08.680 --> 0:23:11.399
<v Speaker 3>the government here really wants Oxford and Cambridge in that

0:23:11.680 --> 0:23:14.960
<v Speaker 3>arc there to be a kind of Silicon Valley esque,

0:23:15.119 --> 0:23:18.000
<v Speaker 3>don't they. But look on again on this on the

0:23:18.080 --> 0:23:21.760
<v Speaker 3>big picture, the UK and Europe have to compete with

0:23:21.840 --> 0:23:24.600
<v Speaker 3>the US and China when it comes to kind of

0:23:24.680 --> 0:23:26.560
<v Speaker 3>transformational technology, don't they.

0:23:27.119 --> 0:23:27.320
<v Speaker 7>They do.

0:23:27.520 --> 0:23:30.879
<v Speaker 8>They have to compete with real innovation in the Chinese market,

0:23:31.040 --> 0:23:33.399
<v Speaker 8>not just from deep Sat, which of course created all

0:23:33.440 --> 0:23:36.680
<v Speaker 8>those headlines, the large language model that is open source

0:23:36.760 --> 0:23:39.480
<v Speaker 8>and that was much cheaper to build according to the

0:23:39.640 --> 0:23:42.359
<v Speaker 8>team who run that. There's all sorts of innovations coming

0:23:42.440 --> 0:23:46.359
<v Speaker 8>through from key tech players in China and it is

0:23:46.600 --> 0:23:49.240
<v Speaker 8>a race right now between China and the US. That

0:23:49.400 --> 0:23:51.320
<v Speaker 8>is where the race is at. Can Europe catch up?

0:23:51.600 --> 0:23:54.160
<v Speaker 8>It remains a key question. We do have players large

0:23:54.200 --> 0:23:57.359
<v Speaker 8>language model company called mistral over in France. Can the

0:23:57.520 --> 0:23:59.680
<v Speaker 8>UK play Where is the value in this? Is the

0:23:59.760 --> 0:24:01.920
<v Speaker 8>value in those larger language models or is it in

0:24:02.000 --> 0:24:04.000
<v Speaker 8>the companies that are building the solutions on top of that,

0:24:04.320 --> 0:24:08.359
<v Speaker 8>like eleven Labs, which does things like audio translation here

0:24:08.400 --> 0:24:11.480
<v Speaker 8>in the UK. Is it in legal and finance? We're

0:24:11.560 --> 0:24:13.520
<v Speaker 8>very strong of course in terms of financial services and

0:24:13.560 --> 0:24:17.480
<v Speaker 8>legal services companies like Luminance AI, which does AI for

0:24:17.680 --> 0:24:20.080
<v Speaker 8>the legal sector. Is that where our strength is rather

0:24:20.160 --> 0:24:22.200
<v Speaker 8>than the foundation models? Where is the value? And that

0:24:22.280 --> 0:24:23.160
<v Speaker 8>still remains a debate.

0:24:23.840 --> 0:24:27.119
<v Speaker 3>This makes me laugh because months ago, Tommy, you were

0:24:27.160 --> 0:24:29.879
<v Speaker 3>telling me about how important it was to understand how

0:24:30.000 --> 0:24:32.960
<v Speaker 3>those apps work, Which kind of leads me to my

0:24:33.280 --> 0:24:35.399
<v Speaker 3>last thought, which is that you're not just at London

0:24:35.480 --> 0:24:38.359
<v Speaker 3>Tech Week, but you're also launching a brand new show

0:24:38.520 --> 0:24:41.840
<v Speaker 3>covering all things tech. It's such an important time now

0:24:42.440 --> 0:24:44.639
<v Speaker 3>more than ever. What are you going to hope to

0:24:44.800 --> 0:24:45.400
<v Speaker 3>bring us.

0:24:45.480 --> 0:24:46.200
<v Speaker 9>In that show?

0:24:46.560 --> 0:24:50.040
<v Speaker 8>I don't think I can overstress what this moment is

0:24:50.160 --> 0:24:53.000
<v Speaker 8>in terms of the significance. You look at the defense, space,

0:24:53.160 --> 0:24:55.720
<v Speaker 8>you look at energy, you look at space technology. In

0:24:55.880 --> 0:24:58.840
<v Speaker 8>all those areas the UK and Europe need to be

0:24:58.920 --> 0:25:01.800
<v Speaker 8>stepping up. These changes are going to happen rapidly with

0:25:02.000 --> 0:25:03.760
<v Speaker 8>all of those sectors. AI is going to be powering

0:25:03.800 --> 0:25:05.800
<v Speaker 8>a lot of it, whether it is energy, defense or

0:25:05.880 --> 0:25:08.720
<v Speaker 8>space tech, and what we hope to do with Bloomberg

0:25:09.000 --> 0:25:12.000
<v Speaker 8>Tech Europe is to chart some of that invasion, talk

0:25:12.040 --> 0:25:14.119
<v Speaker 8>about where they close the gap is and how we

0:25:14.240 --> 0:25:16.359
<v Speaker 8>close that gap, and speak to some of the key leaders,

0:25:16.359 --> 0:25:20.359
<v Speaker 8>whether it is Demsisabis, whether it is Arms CEO Rennie

0:25:20.359 --> 0:25:23.920
<v Speaker 8>has who I'll be speaking to next week, and key funders,

0:25:24.040 --> 0:25:27.080
<v Speaker 8>venture capitalists and key founders as well across Europe and

0:25:27.119 --> 0:25:27.359
<v Speaker 8>the UK.

0:25:27.880 --> 0:25:29.720
<v Speaker 3>I bet it's going to be a great show, and

0:25:29.840 --> 0:25:31.840
<v Speaker 3>of course we'll have lots of those snippets of all

0:25:31.840 --> 0:25:34.359
<v Speaker 3>of those great interviews on Bloomberg Radio.

0:25:34.480 --> 0:25:35.920
<v Speaker 9>Thank you so much, Tom for being with me.

0:25:36.160 --> 0:25:39.040
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg's Tom McKenzie will have full coverage of all the

0:25:39.119 --> 0:25:43.480
<v Speaker 3>key moments for you from London Tech Week across Bloomberg platforms.

0:25:43.680 --> 0:25:45.919
<v Speaker 3>I'm Caline Hepge here in London. You can catch us

0:25:46.000 --> 0:25:49.040
<v Speaker 3>every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak you at the beginning

0:25:49.040 --> 0:25:50.119
<v Speaker 3>at six am in London.

0:25:50.480 --> 0:25:51.840
<v Speaker 9>That's one am on Wall Street.

0:25:52.040 --> 0:25:55.399
<v Speaker 2>Tom, Thanks Caroline, And coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend,

0:25:55.440 --> 0:25:58.280
<v Speaker 2>we'll look ahead to some fresh economic data out of China.

0:25:58.800 --> 0:26:13.080
<v Speaker 2>I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg

0:26:13.160 --> 0:26:15.200
<v Speaker 2>day Break Weekend, our global look ahead at the top

0:26:15.240 --> 0:26:18.040
<v Speaker 2>stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby

0:26:18.119 --> 0:26:21.280
<v Speaker 2>in New York. Last week we learned China's services activity

0:26:21.359 --> 0:26:23.840
<v Speaker 2>expanded at a faster pace in May. It was a

0:26:23.920 --> 0:26:26.800
<v Speaker 2>positive sign for the country as it looks to stabilize

0:26:26.840 --> 0:26:30.000
<v Speaker 2>trade relations with the US following a call between Presidents

0:26:30.040 --> 0:26:33.159
<v Speaker 2>Trump and She. This week, we'll get fresh data and

0:26:33.240 --> 0:26:35.040
<v Speaker 2>a clearer view of the health of the world's second

0:26:35.080 --> 0:26:37.800
<v Speaker 2>largest economy. For more, let's get to the host of

0:26:37.840 --> 0:26:40.120
<v Speaker 2>the Daybreak Asia podcast, Doug Krisner.

0:26:40.560 --> 0:26:43.200
<v Speaker 4>Tom. The trade truce between the US and China is

0:26:43.240 --> 0:26:46.280
<v Speaker 4>a month old, and it appears to be on shaky ground.

0:26:46.760 --> 0:26:50.240
<v Speaker 4>Distrust between Washington and Beijing is running deep, and the

0:26:50.400 --> 0:26:53.960
<v Speaker 4>question is whether a talk between Presidents Trump and She

0:26:54.200 --> 0:26:57.560
<v Speaker 4>will produce a positive outcome. So how well is the

0:26:57.680 --> 0:27:01.359
<v Speaker 4>Chinese economy holding up under the weight of this trade conflict.

0:27:01.800 --> 0:27:04.120
<v Speaker 4>We'll get some insight in the week ahead with readings

0:27:04.200 --> 0:27:08.879
<v Speaker 4>on Chinese exports, as well as industrial production and retail sales,

0:27:09.040 --> 0:27:11.320
<v Speaker 4>to name a few. Joining me now for a closer

0:27:11.359 --> 0:27:14.440
<v Speaker 4>look at the broader Chinese economy is John lou. He

0:27:14.640 --> 0:27:18.600
<v Speaker 4>is Bloomberg Executive editor for Greater China, John joins us

0:27:18.600 --> 0:27:21.560
<v Speaker 4>from our studios in Beijing. Good of you to make

0:27:21.640 --> 0:27:23.760
<v Speaker 4>time to chat with me. There's a lot to cover here,

0:27:24.240 --> 0:27:27.280
<v Speaker 4>but can we just start with kind of a summary

0:27:27.359 --> 0:27:29.639
<v Speaker 4>of how you see the macro in China right now.

0:27:30.800 --> 0:27:34.960
<v Speaker 10>I would describe it as being relatively stable, but in

0:27:35.080 --> 0:27:39.480
<v Speaker 10>a relatively weak state. So I think the data that

0:27:39.560 --> 0:27:43.880
<v Speaker 10>we've gotten as it refers to manufacturing, as it refers

0:27:44.000 --> 0:27:47.520
<v Speaker 10>to trade, has shown that the economy has taken a

0:27:47.640 --> 0:27:49.920
<v Speaker 10>hit from the tariffs imposed by the United States. We

0:27:50.040 --> 0:27:53.920
<v Speaker 10>saw a pretty sharp drop off in shipments to the

0:27:54.080 --> 0:27:56.800
<v Speaker 10>United States, a twenty percent decline in exports in the

0:27:56.880 --> 0:28:00.040
<v Speaker 10>month of April. As we understand it, after the the

0:28:00.600 --> 0:28:04.479
<v Speaker 10>sort of detent that came together in Geneva, trade did

0:28:04.560 --> 0:28:07.800
<v Speaker 10>pick up. So we are expecting to see better trade

0:28:07.880 --> 0:28:12.280
<v Speaker 10>numbers for the month of May because American importers are

0:28:12.320 --> 0:28:14.960
<v Speaker 10>trying to get their goods in while the getting was good,

0:28:15.480 --> 0:28:21.040
<v Speaker 10>but still we're expecting inflation factory gate prices to remain

0:28:21.240 --> 0:28:26.760
<v Speaker 10>weak in May. That speaks to domestic consumption, domestic demand

0:28:26.880 --> 0:28:27.760
<v Speaker 10>still not picking up.

0:28:28.160 --> 0:28:32.800
<v Speaker 4>We had comments recently from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant saying

0:28:33.000 --> 0:28:36.000
<v Speaker 4>that China needs to shift to a more consumption led

0:28:36.080 --> 0:28:39.800
<v Speaker 4>economy to help ease global imbalances. It seems to be

0:28:39.880 --> 0:28:42.720
<v Speaker 4>stating the obvious right now, what is the government in

0:28:42.880 --> 0:28:47.480
<v Speaker 4>Beijing doing to try to address the issue of stronger

0:28:47.560 --> 0:28:48.360
<v Speaker 4>domestic demand?

0:28:49.240 --> 0:28:54.080
<v Speaker 10>So at a very high three thousand foot level, Beijing

0:28:54.160 --> 0:28:58.400
<v Speaker 10>and Washington are in agreement on that. Chinese officials back

0:28:58.960 --> 0:29:02.200
<v Speaker 10>ten fifteen years been saying the Chinese economy is unbalanced.

0:29:02.280 --> 0:29:06.000
<v Speaker 10>It needs more domestic consumption, it needs to depend less

0:29:06.160 --> 0:29:10.200
<v Speaker 10>on exports and investment. The problem is how to do

0:29:10.560 --> 0:29:15.360
<v Speaker 10>that restructuring reconfiguration of what is the world's second biggest

0:29:15.400 --> 0:29:19.960
<v Speaker 10>economy well over ten trillion dollars. How to do that

0:29:20.120 --> 0:29:24.800
<v Speaker 10>without causing some hiccup and growth that would be destabilizing

0:29:24.840 --> 0:29:27.240
<v Speaker 10>for the country. That is the problem. And so what

0:29:27.360 --> 0:29:30.800
<v Speaker 10>we have instead seeing is it's much easier when growth

0:29:31.000 --> 0:29:33.880
<v Speaker 10>is slow, when it's weak, for the government here in

0:29:33.960 --> 0:29:36.120
<v Speaker 10>Beijing to double down on what has worked, and that

0:29:36.200 --> 0:29:39.600
<v Speaker 10>has been manufacturing, that has been investment, that has been exports.

0:29:40.040 --> 0:29:42.600
<v Speaker 10>And we've seen that through the course of COVID and

0:29:42.960 --> 0:29:46.240
<v Speaker 10>in this most recent set of trade tensions that we've.

0:29:46.120 --> 0:29:50.400
<v Speaker 4>Had deflation continues to be a huge problem. Are authorities

0:29:50.440 --> 0:29:53.080
<v Speaker 4>worried about it reaching a dangerous level? Do you think?

0:29:53.800 --> 0:29:56.040
<v Speaker 10>I think there's a lot of concern about deflation. I

0:29:56.080 --> 0:29:58.320
<v Speaker 10>don't think we are at a point yet where it

0:29:58.480 --> 0:30:03.480
<v Speaker 10>is causing alarm amongst policymakers. Here in Beijing. The PPI,

0:30:03.720 --> 0:30:07.960
<v Speaker 10>the factory gate prices for Chinese companies, has been declining

0:30:08.080 --> 0:30:10.800
<v Speaker 10>for the better part of three years. It speaks to

0:30:11.160 --> 0:30:15.120
<v Speaker 10>Chinese companies not having the ability, the pricing ability when

0:30:15.120 --> 0:30:18.240
<v Speaker 10>they're trying to offload, to get to distribute, to sell

0:30:18.280 --> 0:30:22.640
<v Speaker 10>their products. That speaks to excess capacity in the Chinese economy.

0:30:23.480 --> 0:30:26.400
<v Speaker 10>That's the result of trade barriers on one hand, but

0:30:26.440 --> 0:30:29.600
<v Speaker 10>also the real estate problems that have happened here and

0:30:29.680 --> 0:30:32.960
<v Speaker 10>there being a weakness and domestic demand. So there is worry,

0:30:33.080 --> 0:30:35.320
<v Speaker 10>but we are still not at a level where I

0:30:35.400 --> 0:30:38.280
<v Speaker 10>think it's going to trigger the Chinese government to go

0:30:38.400 --> 0:30:42.560
<v Speaker 10>into overdrive stimulus mode and start churning out new policies

0:30:42.600 --> 0:30:43.480
<v Speaker 10>to try and address it.

0:30:44.040 --> 0:30:46.440
<v Speaker 4>One of the things that I think Beijing would like

0:30:46.520 --> 0:30:49.760
<v Speaker 4>to have happen as part of any negotiation in dealing

0:30:49.880 --> 0:30:51.960
<v Speaker 4>with the trade war, if we can call it that

0:30:52.360 --> 0:30:57.080
<v Speaker 4>certainly the situation with these very very drastic tariffs is

0:30:57.160 --> 0:31:00.800
<v Speaker 4>some type of relaxation when it comes to X controls

0:31:00.960 --> 0:31:05.360
<v Speaker 4>on high technology. How is the high tech sector and

0:31:05.440 --> 0:31:07.600
<v Speaker 4>I use that term very broadly, John, how is it

0:31:07.680 --> 0:31:09.000
<v Speaker 4>performing in China right now?

0:31:09.480 --> 0:31:13.560
<v Speaker 10>So? I think we've seen some breakthroughs in twenty twenty five.

0:31:14.240 --> 0:31:16.760
<v Speaker 10>Deep Seek is probably the best known of those. There

0:31:16.840 --> 0:31:19.760
<v Speaker 10>have been some breakthroughs in terms of robotics here in China,

0:31:20.400 --> 0:31:23.719
<v Speaker 10>and so I think the state of the Chinese Chinese

0:31:23.760 --> 0:31:26.920
<v Speaker 10>technology at the moment is it is still able to

0:31:27.040 --> 0:31:29.680
<v Speaker 10>be innovative and come up with new products. The problem,

0:31:29.760 --> 0:31:35.880
<v Speaker 10>I think is scale. How quickly can China scale AI applications?

0:31:36.000 --> 0:31:39.360
<v Speaker 10>How quickly can China scale robotics? And I think this

0:31:39.560 --> 0:31:44.200
<v Speaker 10>is where the technology, the limitations that the United States

0:31:44.240 --> 0:31:46.840
<v Speaker 10>has placed on Chinese access to technology, I think this

0:31:47.000 --> 0:31:49.520
<v Speaker 10>is where that comes in and starts to hurt the

0:31:49.600 --> 0:31:52.080
<v Speaker 10>Chinese economy. If China could get its hands on more

0:31:52.200 --> 0:31:55.160
<v Speaker 10>Nvidia chips, for example, it could roll out AI at

0:31:55.160 --> 0:31:58.160
<v Speaker 10>a much larger scale than what it's been able to

0:31:58.240 --> 0:32:02.320
<v Speaker 10>do now. And so there is a eagerness and interest

0:32:02.360 --> 0:32:06.240
<v Speaker 10>in Beijing to have some of these technology curves removed.

0:32:06.560 --> 0:32:08.360
<v Speaker 10>But at the same time, I think you have also

0:32:08.440 --> 0:32:12.120
<v Speaker 10>seen Beijing trying to use its leverage when it comes

0:32:12.160 --> 0:32:14.760
<v Speaker 10>to rare earth, when it comes to critical minerals and

0:32:14.800 --> 0:32:17.960
<v Speaker 10>how that affects technology companies and manufacturers in the United

0:32:18.000 --> 0:32:21.200
<v Speaker 10>States as a way to try and bring that issue

0:32:21.280 --> 0:32:23.600
<v Speaker 10>onto the table. And so I think it is ultimately

0:32:23.680 --> 0:32:25.680
<v Speaker 10>going to be a negotiation between the two.

0:32:25.560 --> 0:32:27.800
<v Speaker 4>Governments to put a finer point on some of the

0:32:27.880 --> 0:32:32.000
<v Speaker 4>controls that the US has established. When you look at

0:32:32.040 --> 0:32:35.360
<v Speaker 4>a company like Huawei, are they moving closer to being

0:32:35.400 --> 0:32:38.280
<v Speaker 4>able to compete with a company like in Nvidia when

0:32:38.320 --> 0:32:41.480
<v Speaker 4>it comes to those very sophisticated AI chips.

0:32:42.040 --> 0:32:44.440
<v Speaker 10>So I think this is where the issue of scale

0:32:44.520 --> 0:32:48.320
<v Speaker 10>comes into play. Huawei can design some of the world's

0:32:48.400 --> 0:32:52.880
<v Speaker 10>most leading AI chips. They can produce a few of them,

0:32:53.640 --> 0:32:57.080
<v Speaker 10>you know, at a time, small lots. The problem becomes

0:32:57.560 --> 0:33:03.200
<v Speaker 10>they cannot produce large amounts at economically very viable prices

0:33:03.480 --> 0:33:06.880
<v Speaker 10>because they don't have access to the latest chip manufacturing technology,

0:33:06.960 --> 0:33:11.760
<v Speaker 10>the things that TSMC has, the things that Nvidia has

0:33:11.840 --> 0:33:14.720
<v Speaker 10>access to, and that has been the real hurdle for

0:33:14.920 --> 0:33:19.320
<v Speaker 10>Chinese technology, Chinese Semiconductor's Chinese AI and that is why

0:33:19.800 --> 0:33:23.720
<v Speaker 10>Beijing really wants some relaxation in these curves that the

0:33:23.800 --> 0:33:24.640
<v Speaker 10>United States has put in.

0:33:25.000 --> 0:33:27.960
<v Speaker 4>So I mentioned a moment ago the monthly activity data

0:33:28.240 --> 0:33:32.400
<v Speaker 4>industrial production, retail sales to critical data points. Talk to

0:33:32.520 --> 0:33:34.800
<v Speaker 4>me a little bit about the health of the Chinese

0:33:34.880 --> 0:33:37.640
<v Speaker 4>consumer right now and what we may see in that

0:33:37.800 --> 0:33:38.960
<v Speaker 4>retail sales number.

0:33:39.600 --> 0:33:41.720
<v Speaker 10>So we've just come off of a holiday at the

0:33:41.840 --> 0:33:44.920
<v Speaker 10>beginning of May, a three day weekend here for the

0:33:45.120 --> 0:33:50.120
<v Speaker 10>Dragon Boat Festival, and that showed while overall consumer spending

0:33:50.160 --> 0:33:54.440
<v Speaker 10>during the holiday was up, the spending per trip was down.

0:33:54.920 --> 0:33:57.120
<v Speaker 10>And so I think it speaks to the fact that

0:33:57.960 --> 0:34:01.240
<v Speaker 10>people are still going out there, are going to lunches

0:34:01.320 --> 0:34:04.480
<v Speaker 10>and dinners, and they're going shopping, and they're going out to,

0:34:05.040 --> 0:34:07.320
<v Speaker 10>you know, have a holiday, but they're doing it less.

0:34:07.360 --> 0:34:10.120
<v Speaker 10>And when they're doing it, they're trying to spend a

0:34:10.120 --> 0:34:12.720
<v Speaker 10>little less. They're holding onto their wallets a little tighter.

0:34:12.800 --> 0:34:15.600
<v Speaker 10>And that is still I think, ultimately a reflection of

0:34:16.239 --> 0:34:19.439
<v Speaker 10>the real estate crash that we've had here in China,

0:34:19.560 --> 0:34:22.240
<v Speaker 10>the fact that so much of household wealth is tied

0:34:22.320 --> 0:34:24.640
<v Speaker 10>up in the home and when people see the value

0:34:24.680 --> 0:34:27.759
<v Speaker 10>of their homes go down, they feel poorer themselves, even

0:34:27.840 --> 0:34:30.880
<v Speaker 10>if their financial situation hasn't actually changed.

0:34:31.320 --> 0:34:33.840
<v Speaker 4>Are consumers caught up in a lot of the rhetoric

0:34:33.960 --> 0:34:35.960
<v Speaker 4>around the trade ward do they have a point of

0:34:36.040 --> 0:34:39.200
<v Speaker 4>view when it comes to what Donald Trump and the

0:34:39.239 --> 0:34:41.760
<v Speaker 4>Trump administration is imposing on China.

0:34:42.440 --> 0:34:46.600
<v Speaker 10>So I think this is a it goes two ways.

0:34:47.080 --> 0:34:52.320
<v Speaker 10>On one hand, it is affecting consumer confidence. The average

0:34:52.480 --> 0:34:55.440
<v Speaker 10>individual here in China understands that trade is an important

0:34:55.480 --> 0:34:58.640
<v Speaker 10>part of the economy, and if China is not able

0:34:58.680 --> 0:35:01.239
<v Speaker 10>to sell products into the United States, that's going to

0:35:01.880 --> 0:35:05.400
<v Speaker 10>make the job market less stable. It's going to make

0:35:05.440 --> 0:35:07.960
<v Speaker 10>it weaker. People are going to be a little bit

0:35:08.040 --> 0:35:11.320
<v Speaker 10>more concerned about their future prospects, and so as a result,

0:35:11.400 --> 0:35:15.680
<v Speaker 10>they may constrain some of their discretionary spending. But at

0:35:15.680 --> 0:35:17.680
<v Speaker 10>the same time, one of the other effects has been

0:35:18.480 --> 0:35:23.040
<v Speaker 10>people broadly see the tariffs as being American aggression, and

0:35:23.160 --> 0:35:26.640
<v Speaker 10>that has resulted in a lot of on the ground

0:35:26.760 --> 0:35:30.719
<v Speaker 10>support Foreshiugen Ping and for the government here to retaliate,

0:35:30.880 --> 0:35:33.080
<v Speaker 10>to play hardball with us, and so it kind of

0:35:33.120 --> 0:35:37.279
<v Speaker 10>creates a situation where people are feeling the effect and

0:35:37.400 --> 0:35:40.040
<v Speaker 10>feeling the hit in terms of confidence, But at the

0:35:40.080 --> 0:35:44.440
<v Speaker 10>same time, ready to continue going on, ready to continue

0:35:44.440 --> 0:35:45.560
<v Speaker 10>fighting the strang ward to.

0:35:45.680 --> 0:35:49.040
<v Speaker 4>What extent is the government working to try to create

0:35:49.200 --> 0:35:51.800
<v Speaker 4>new markets right now to compensate for the fact that

0:35:52.080 --> 0:35:55.200
<v Speaker 4>demand coming from the US may be much less.

0:35:55.760 --> 0:35:59.480
<v Speaker 10>So I think April was a very interesting month as

0:35:59.520 --> 0:36:03.279
<v Speaker 10>an ill of that. In April, Chinese exports to the

0:36:03.360 --> 0:36:07.360
<v Speaker 10>US fell by twenty percent, but Chinese exports to India

0:36:07.480 --> 0:36:10.799
<v Speaker 10>to Southeast Asia increase by twenty percent. And so there

0:36:11.080 --> 0:36:14.680
<v Speaker 10>is an effort by the Chinese government, by Chinese companies

0:36:15.000 --> 0:36:18.440
<v Speaker 10>to look for new markets where they can send their

0:36:18.480 --> 0:36:20.880
<v Speaker 10>products if those products cannot go to the United States.

0:36:21.320 --> 0:36:23.359
<v Speaker 10>That is one thing that they're doing now. The question

0:36:23.560 --> 0:36:27.279
<v Speaker 10>is how long can that last? Because if companies are

0:36:27.400 --> 0:36:31.000
<v Speaker 10>diverting all those products about half a trillion dollars worth

0:36:31.040 --> 0:36:33.399
<v Speaker 10>of exports to the United States in twenty twenty four,

0:36:33.680 --> 0:36:36.120
<v Speaker 10>if that's all or much of that is being diverted

0:36:36.160 --> 0:36:38.960
<v Speaker 10>to other markets, much smaller markets in Southeast Asia and

0:36:39.040 --> 0:36:42.239
<v Speaker 10>India relative to the United States, how long will those

0:36:42.360 --> 0:36:45.759
<v Speaker 10>markets allow those products to come in freely without they

0:36:45.880 --> 0:36:48.360
<v Speaker 10>themselves putting up trade barriers. And so this is a

0:36:48.480 --> 0:36:51.200
<v Speaker 10>question of yes, this is working now, but how long

0:36:51.239 --> 0:36:52.360
<v Speaker 10>will it work into the future.

0:36:52.520 --> 0:36:56.480
<v Speaker 4>What about the trading partners that China already relies heavily on,

0:36:56.640 --> 0:36:59.280
<v Speaker 4>and I'm thinking of South Korea, Japan to some extent,

0:36:59.360 --> 0:37:01.839
<v Speaker 4>certainly Australia. How are those relationships.

0:37:02.800 --> 0:37:06.040
<v Speaker 10>They are tense because part of what is happening in

0:37:06.200 --> 0:37:09.680
<v Speaker 10>these negotiations between the United States and South Korea and

0:37:09.840 --> 0:37:15.040
<v Speaker 10>Japan and Australia is this push to try and get

0:37:15.160 --> 0:37:22.399
<v Speaker 10>those countries to cut off Chinese sort of Chinese manufacturers

0:37:22.440 --> 0:37:24.600
<v Speaker 10>sending their goods to South Korea, for example, so that

0:37:24.680 --> 0:37:27.320
<v Speaker 10>they can be on sent to the United States. We

0:37:27.440 --> 0:37:30.399
<v Speaker 10>saw that when the US reached an agreement with the UK.

0:37:31.360 --> 0:37:34.080
<v Speaker 10>We've seen that with the US pushing for Mexico to

0:37:34.280 --> 0:37:38.360
<v Speaker 10>stop Chinese manufacturers from doing that. And so there is

0:37:38.480 --> 0:37:41.440
<v Speaker 10>an effort to buy the United States to put pressure

0:37:41.480 --> 0:37:44.720
<v Speaker 10>on these allies to cut themselves off from the Chinese

0:37:44.719 --> 0:37:47.960
<v Speaker 10>supply chain. China, on its part, is putting pressure on

0:37:48.040 --> 0:37:50.560
<v Speaker 10>those same countries to not do that, and so it's

0:37:50.640 --> 0:37:53.480
<v Speaker 10>actually caused a lot of these countries to be put

0:37:53.600 --> 0:37:56.560
<v Speaker 10>in a very difficult position and they're having to play

0:37:56.640 --> 0:37:58.600
<v Speaker 10>a balance that none of them wants to be in.

0:37:58.960 --> 0:38:01.279
<v Speaker 4>John, Thank you so much much for helping us set

0:38:01.360 --> 0:38:03.600
<v Speaker 4>the stage as we look forward to the data in

0:38:03.719 --> 0:38:07.440
<v Speaker 4>the coming week on exports along with industrial production and

0:38:07.560 --> 0:38:11.640
<v Speaker 4>retail sales. He's John Lou Bloomberg, Executive Editor for Greater China,

0:38:11.840 --> 0:38:14.239
<v Speaker 4>and I'm Doug Chrisner. You can catch us weekdays for

0:38:14.320 --> 0:38:18.520
<v Speaker 4>the Daybreak Asia podcast. It's available wherever you get your podcast.

0:38:18.880 --> 0:38:21.480
<v Speaker 2>Tom, Thank you Doug. And that does it for this

0:38:21.680 --> 0:38:24.560
<v Speaker 2>edition of Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Join us again Monday

0:38:24.560 --> 0:38:26.800
<v Speaker 2>morning at five am Wall Street Time for the latest

0:38:26.840 --> 0:38:29.439
<v Speaker 2>on markets overseas and the news you need to start

0:38:29.480 --> 0:38:33.040
<v Speaker 2>your day. I'm Tom Busby. Stay with us. Top stories

0:38:33.080 --> 0:38:35.520
<v Speaker 2>and global business headlines are coming up right now.