Speaker 1: Check it down, then.
Speaker 2: No Down.
Speaker 3: Then Thursday noon, August twenty four, twenty twenty three, it's
Speaker 3: Beating the Book podcast kil Alexander US Open Tennis preview.
Speaker 2: Love it last Slam of the year, hardcourt slam and
Speaker 2: what has been for me admittedly tremendous CLV not a
Speaker 2: damn winner kind of season. That is just how it's been.
Speaker 2: Hopefully that turns here. It's turned a little bit the
Speaker 2: last week here, but hopefully for the US Open it
Speaker 2: turns it as always to help us with a tennis slam,
Speaker 2: it's our buddy who is the co host of not
Speaker 2: just the Deep Dive podcast which he does with Andy Moletor,
Speaker 2: but also NBC Sports Bet the Edge Pod. It's Drew Didzick.
Speaker 2: Everybody wail Underscore Caper on Twitter.
Speaker 1: How you doing, Drew, I'm tremendous Gille. Always a fun
Speaker 1: day when we get to see a slam draw. It
Speaker 1: is there's only four of them a yere.
Speaker 2: Only four year. This is the one where we're like,
Speaker 2: oh wait, a minute's after the morning show, so we
Speaker 2: kind of have to figure out when to put it
Speaker 2: out the podcast. Unlike the French were sometimes we're doing
Speaker 2: it while it's happening, and I guess we should start
Speaker 2: by say, first of all, for those who aren't watching
Speaker 2: this because we only put out a clip, but you
Speaker 2: are outdoors doing this. You're saying in central California, so
Speaker 2: you look great out there. Thanks for doing this, appreciate it.
Speaker 2: Here are the two headlines. You tell me if I'm wrong, Boy,
Speaker 2: is this greased nicely? For Djokovic on the men's side
Speaker 2: and man is Ega in trouble on the women's side.
Speaker 1: Agree sincerely with the first point, and I think you
Speaker 1: could have actually made that even stronger. Yes, And uh
Speaker 1: second point, I disagree.
Speaker 2: Oh really really, I like to hear it.
Speaker 1: So this is a little bit of a maybe seems
Speaker 1: mentally contradictory, and maybe I've just been in the sun
Speaker 1: too long this summer. That's possible, also possible, But uh,
Speaker 1: I think I was most nervous about running into Cocoa Golf.
Speaker 1: And at face value, she's in your quarter but uh,
Speaker 1: she has got a very very tough path to get
Speaker 1: to the quarterfinal. Whereas you, guy, I feel like it
Speaker 1: gets a buye. I see what you mean right there?
Speaker 1: You I see okay, okay, I mean do you look
Speaker 1: at the you look at the bottom of the section,
Speaker 1: like like Q one is stacked. It is sex That's
Speaker 1: that's true. But they're all on the bottom, which is
Speaker 1: Coco's Porsche.
Speaker 2: No, that is a good point. That is a good point.
Speaker 2: Let me let me tell you why I didn't have
Speaker 2: it that nuanced, Because have you tried looking at these
Speaker 2: draws on both the ATP and the WTA sites when
Speaker 2: they first come out?
Speaker 1: Yeah, disaster disaster.
Speaker 2: So like, for first of all, I texted you when
Speaker 2: I looked at the I looked at the men's side first,
Speaker 2: and I'm like, wait a minute, how can there be
Speaker 2: all these amazing matches of the first half And I'm like, oh,
Speaker 2: the first round. I'm like, oh, okay, that's wrong.
Speaker 1: What's especially you know, it's especially funny, man, the US
Speaker 1: Open does uh they do the least amount of fanfare
Speaker 1: with the draw, which is a mistake, a mistake, like
Speaker 1: they should they should make this an event. You know,
Speaker 1: get get there's you know, you know where there's famous
Speaker 1: people hanging out that love tennis, New York, New York.
Speaker 1: You know that they would love to come and participate
Speaker 1: in a US Open draw, and you know the fan
Speaker 1: the fanfare involved with the French Open and Wimbledon especially
Speaker 1: is awesome. New York needs to embrace that. Instead they
Speaker 1: just you know, bang, the computer spit this out. Well,
Speaker 1: if the computer's spitting it out, you shouldn't have a
Speaker 1: problem getting the right physical you know, like the PDF
Speaker 1: draws on the website, right, they.
Speaker 2: Fail, So so you're right. I'm looking at Q one,
Speaker 2: which again, like just like you said, the reason I
Speaker 2: said it the way I said it was because yes,
Speaker 2: if you look at Q one as a whole, it's
Speaker 2: about seven well it's called six really good players deep.
Speaker 2: But EGA's side of Q one has an out of
Speaker 2: form Kadermatova, and I guess, and I guess Patrick Viteva
Speaker 2: would be the main, the main challenger on her side,
Speaker 2: but the other side has golf Us the Pinco Collins
Speaker 2: and Andreva.
Speaker 1: I think Vidva is on the on the other side too.
Speaker 1: But just like I think she would be the fourth
Speaker 1: round opponent for I'm going off memory, I think she
Speaker 1: would be the fourth round oponent for golf. Golf. Golf
Speaker 1: has something insane like.
Speaker 2: Okay, this webs ut website can go to hell. It
Speaker 2: can go to hell, yeah, because it's ridiculous. If that's true.
Speaker 1: Basically, Coco drawing Andreva round two I think is trouble
Speaker 1: and and and like, I'm not an idiot, Andreva has
Speaker 1: a lot to prove. Thinking that she's all of a
Speaker 1: sudden a top twenty player when she's just you know,
Speaker 1: had a couple of breakout performances this season is maybe asking,
Speaker 1: you know, asking a lot of her. Yeah, but but
Speaker 1: but the facts are she just hasn't played as much
Speaker 1: tennis this season this season, particularly recently, as Coco has,
Speaker 1: so she's a fresher opponent and she's very dangerous. I know,
Speaker 1: Coco ousted her at the French Open, and that was
Speaker 1: an interesting thing single match market to watch because I
Speaker 1: feel like Andreva opened up like plus one twenty and
Speaker 1: got that almost favorite or maybe even close favorite there.
Speaker 1: But and Coco ultimately got the better of her because
Speaker 1: she's just a very more experienced player. But this table's
Speaker 1: had turned a little bit coming in off of a
Speaker 1: huge title. She's played a lot of a lot of
Speaker 1: tennis in the last month and a half. And Andrewa,
Speaker 1: I think is a very live for an early upset
Speaker 1: for Coco. Coco does, yeah, if she gets through there.
Speaker 1: Her round three opponent is nasty around four opponent, I
Speaker 1: think is is a tough test. Whereas I I look
Speaker 1: at I think it's like Austin Pinka and kuter Matova
Speaker 1: are sort of the other ranked players in and around
Speaker 1: Egas section, and honestly, either of one of them even
Speaker 1: gets to play Ega in round four, I'll be surprised.
Speaker 1: I really look at that top half as Ega basically
Speaker 1: got to buy it withnd Bye the week two, maybe
Speaker 1: even buy it the quarterfinal and she could face Golf
Speaker 1: or Golf could get ousted early, but he away. I
Speaker 1: feel like Ego was most at risk in this tournament
Speaker 1: if she ran into Coco at the semi final stage
Speaker 1: or at the final stage, and Coco had a just
Speaker 1: a little bit easier path, and instead she gets her
Speaker 1: at the quarter final stage and Coco's got just an
Speaker 1: absolute gone at march to get there, I can't let
Speaker 1: to get there. So I, after digesting a little bit,
Speaker 1: I feel like this is now kind of eagest to lose.
Speaker 1: And I know her second servicesues are real. I know
Speaker 1: that you know she won last year pretty ugly, but
Speaker 1: I talk about let's.
Speaker 2: Talk about Ego for sure, who has won four Grand Slams.
Speaker 2: Just turned twenty two years old. She has won I
Speaker 2: want to say fifteen tournaments. Don't hold me that, but
Speaker 2: it's it's right around there. So she's like in you know,
Speaker 2: the on pace Serena schedule things. However, the difference is
Speaker 2: this and no one loves Ega more night. But she's
Speaker 2: very Jay Rod and I on Twitter talk about this
Speaker 2: a lot. She's really odd when it comes to certain
Speaker 2: tournaments and her being satisfied with the levels she gets
Speaker 2: to in those tournaments. This makes sense. So there's certain
Speaker 2: tournaments where she's like, well, I've never been to the
Speaker 2: Semis before I got to the Semis, so that was
Speaker 2: good enough for me.
Speaker 1: Mission accomplished.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's a little it's an odd little quirk
Speaker 2: with her. Now obviously it doesn't doesn't matter with the French.
Speaker 2: She've already won a US Open, She's won tons of thousands,
Speaker 2: rights and master's tournaments, so she's it's not like when
Speaker 2: you look at accumulative that there's anything to complain about,
Speaker 2: but there are some odd performances as a result of
Speaker 2: that kind of mindset. And she's the one with the
Speaker 2: you know, with the psychologist, with the sports psychologist who's
Speaker 2: on you know first person to do that, as I recall,
Speaker 2: maybe the second, So I don't know, it's just a
Speaker 2: weird little quirk. She still looked. Look for those who
Speaker 2: are are newish to tennis and are listening to this.
Speaker 2: When you look at raw hardcore numbers egas number one
Speaker 2: period across the board, Coco and Vondrasova is who I
Speaker 2: have two and three, believe it or not, followed by
Speaker 2: the Sabalanca, the coolist of the world. I don't know
Speaker 2: where you have them stacked, but that's kind of where
Speaker 2: it stacks up right now. But he is the best.
Speaker 2: But I'm curious if you've noticed that sort of behavior
Speaker 2: and sort of wondered about it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I I have noticed it, and I think
Speaker 1: it's somewhat relatively straightforward to explain, which is, she's peerless,
Speaker 1: so she has to measure success by personally beating her
Speaker 1: past performance, right, she just needs to show progress within
Speaker 1: some way of you know, measuring it against well, what
Speaker 1: did I do here last year? Right? That that's my
Speaker 1: guess because again, like that, there's no one else in
Speaker 1: her generation who's performed even close to what she's done
Speaker 1: to this point. And you know that she's kind of
Speaker 1: in a she's in I mean, you know, Cocoa Gough,
Speaker 1: I guess would be sort of the other kind of
Speaker 1: young upcoming player. She's got three years on Coco like
Speaker 1: and just in raw age. It's a big three. Yeah,
Speaker 1: no question, And so you know, I think, you know,
Speaker 1: it's just tough for her to say, like, you know,
Speaker 1: you know, she's been world number one forever. You know,
Speaker 1: like you've got to find a way to motivate yourself.
Speaker 1: You got to find a way that kind of self
Speaker 1: evaluate and measure success. And I think that's the way
Speaker 1: she does it. She's a weird she's a weird athlete
Speaker 1: in a lot of ways. But I think her uniqueness
Speaker 1: also affords her a little bit of a mental edge
Speaker 1: against a lot of the other women on tour. And
Speaker 1: you know, I think they are pretty sorry about no problem,
Speaker 1: Sorry about that, Sorry.
Speaker 2: About Joe has a phone call through skype issue that
Speaker 2: we're working through. That's okay.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know how to don't know how to
Speaker 1: shut this up, sorry guys, But yeah, I get the
Speaker 1: sense that there are parts of her game that she,
Speaker 1: you know, desperately needs to really sharpen and improve. And
Speaker 1: if she tightens up like her second serve and in
Speaker 1: general tightens up some of her you know, decisions about
Speaker 1: aggressiveness and managing aggressiveness throughout a match. You know, then
Speaker 1: she'd be unstoppable. And I think she ultimately will get there.
Speaker 2: I think that ultimately she will know question he get there?
Speaker 1: I'm super yeah.
Speaker 2: By side note, it has nothing to do with anything.
Speaker 2: But when you said ultimately she would get there, you
Speaker 2: know what. I just read this this week. This has
Speaker 2: nothing to do with anything, everybody, So I apologize. Todd
Speaker 2: wished that. My buddy sent me in the mail about
Speaker 2: three months ago. He's like, dude, if you read Agassi's autobiography,
Speaker 2: and I'm like no, He goes, you'll love it. I go, oh, okay,
Speaker 2: should I get it. He's like, I'm gonna send it
Speaker 2: to you. That's how much I think you'll love it.
Speaker 2: Have you ever read his autobiography? It is no spectacular.
Speaker 2: It was written in like two thousand and seven. No,
Speaker 2: don't hold me to that, but somebody it was like
Speaker 2: about fifteen years ago. And here's the spoiler of the
Speaker 2: whole thing. But I would recommend everybody go read this
Speaker 2: because it is such a fascinating book. The headline is
Speaker 2: he hated tennis. Hated it, right, So, like he struggled
Speaker 2: his whole career with this, you know, because his dad
Speaker 2: was the taskmaster. He became, you know, this great player.
Speaker 2: He always hated it for all the things, and yet
Speaker 2: in the end he became the number one player in
Speaker 2: the world in one a slams. Right, So it was
Speaker 2: like this whole thing, we're back and forth. So not
Speaker 2: at all comparing that to to ego in any way,
Speaker 2: but it is the mental side of this is so fascinating, right,
Speaker 2: And so for someone like her, I mean, you say, great,
Speaker 2: you're making me feel even better about ego when you're like,
Speaker 2: she's peerless. So she's like inventing goals.
Speaker 1: It's fascinating, fascinating, and I mean, good for her for
Speaker 1: doing it, because you know that we are not that
Speaker 1: far removed from another peerless athlete in Naomi Osaka, who
Speaker 1: lost you know, went off the reservations and you know,
Speaker 1: she never recaptured it, and I don't know if she
Speaker 1: will ever return to tennis. It's just kind of a mystery. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And uh, you know I think that you know, her
Speaker 1: vacating kind of the next great hardcore player has certainly
Speaker 1: been a huge, you know bump and you know, kind
Speaker 1: of really allowed the same same.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the path was cleared. Yeah, ye, the.
Speaker 1: Path is cleared for her. So it's it's pretty pretty huge.
Speaker 1: And I mean, you know, half I had to make.
Speaker 1: You know, maybe I'll save it for the end, but yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean I think probably takes this one, and this
Speaker 1: is number five.
Speaker 2: This if she takes this one, and I you know,
Speaker 2: I'm not betting on anyone else to take it. I
Speaker 2: have a quarter bet, which I just hinted at. But
Speaker 2: I ega.
Speaker 1: Is ah, you like the same bets I like. I
Speaker 1: think we didn't even we didn't even preview this good.
Speaker 2: Oh, Se, just say what I like. I like vondro
Speaker 2: Sova in yeah, I love Marquete Vandrosova, who let me
Speaker 2: just say this, and you were great because I said
Speaker 2: I said to you after the Wimbledon pod after Wimbledon completed,
Speaker 2: I like Vondrosova, by the way, plus four fifty at
Speaker 2: DraftKings and Q three that is Jesse Pegoula's quote unquote
Speaker 2: quarter if you will. But I like Vondrosova plus four fifty,
Speaker 2: I said to you after the Wimbledon pod or after
Speaker 2: Wimbledon completed, and Vondrosova ends up winning Wimbledon to win
Speaker 2: her first major. I was like, Drew, you and I
Speaker 2: didn't even mention her once, and your response I think
Speaker 2: was appropriate, which is, can you blame us?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Why would you? Why? She had played like two
Speaker 1: grass patches in her life coming into this season, so
Speaker 1: I even considering her would have been at malpractice. Yeah,
Speaker 1: some people, I'm sure saw enough quality in week one
Speaker 1: to get on board at pretty absurd prices for her.
Speaker 1: And you know, I think she showed a constitution which
Speaker 1: matters for slam tennis, right she got you know, she
Speaker 1: she did not She did not lose her pool when
Speaker 1: she was being outplayed by Svidelina. She just steady eddied
Speaker 1: her way through that match. You know, she had some
Speaker 1: moments where it looked like on was kind of keeping it,
Speaker 1: you know, putting it together. In the final, she put
Speaker 1: her head down, you know, it was bonders of she
Speaker 1: put her head down, and she she just powered powered
Speaker 1: through it. And I think, you know, I would typically
Speaker 1: look at a player like her who was coming off
Speaker 1: of what's a seemingly one of type of slam last
Speaker 1: time out, not really having a huge impressive run of
Speaker 1: form to back it up on hardcourt, and I would say, well,
Speaker 1: you know, she's got the she's got the career accomplishment,
Speaker 1: she's in exhal mode and this is just doesn't mean
Speaker 1: much to her, and you know, we can probably rule
Speaker 1: her out off that, but she got a great drap
Speaker 1: and she doesn't seem to necessarily be built that way
Speaker 1: at least just her her mentality that she showed in
Speaker 1: Wimbledon specifically has me thinking this, and I tend to
Speaker 1: agree with you. I think you know we're way ahead.
Speaker 1: Heartbe card before the horse here. But yeah, my final
Speaker 1: prediction would be over Andrisua.
Speaker 2: Oh in the finals. Yeah. Like I said before, only
Speaker 2: spot Tech and golf have better hardcore numbers talking about
Speaker 2: well spot tech year, six months, one month, however you
Speaker 2: want to slice it up. Golf, obviously we have to
Speaker 2: include the short of short term, because she has been
Speaker 2: in a short term basis the best. But Vondrasva just
Speaker 2: you know, twelve month, six month, one month kind of thing,
Speaker 2: like just consist across the board one O seven five
Speaker 2: talking about serve and return percentages one O nine point
Speaker 2: seven on a six month one So I mean it's tremendous.
Speaker 2: So I definitely have her winning that quarter. You've got
Speaker 2: her in the finals against Egot. I would love to
Speaker 2: see that final. Uh so you think von Tresilva in
Speaker 2: the finals. I have her winning the quarter, which means
Speaker 2: you do too. What bet do you have here, sir
Speaker 2: that you'd like to share.
Speaker 1: So well? Definitely, you know, I think kind of breaking
Speaker 1: down the rest of the quarter is Q two is
Speaker 1: the one that I think you're looking for an absurd
Speaker 1: price on. Count me among the people who are sincerely
Speaker 1: concerned about the health and fitness of Elena Rebakana. Yes again,
Speaker 1: kind of going back to the US Open draw criticism. Uh,
Speaker 1: they picked I think the worst photograph of her I've
Speaker 1: ever seen to put on like the on the social
Speaker 1: media that they did. You know how they did Ego's quarter,
Speaker 1: the Goola's quarter right right like well in AIDA's quarter,
Speaker 1: like they literally like found some absolutely beleaguered photo of
Speaker 1: her from Cincinnati or or Canada or something, and she's like,
Speaker 1: oh no, like wow, geez, like she's gonna be okay,
Speaker 1: like what's going on here? But no, I think it's
Speaker 1: it's it's generally fair to wonder if she's going to
Speaker 1: be able to hold up in the heat, humidity, and
Speaker 1: it's generally fair to you know, think that you know,
Speaker 1: she needs like a good amount of time to fully
Speaker 1: regroup from the illness that she came that came down
Speaker 1: that she forced her to withdraw from Roland Garros. And
Speaker 1: I still think that she's probably, you know, a top
Speaker 1: three player going forward. I think, you know, kind of
Speaker 1: looking at the you know, the current one, two three
Speaker 1: in terms of you know, the year end race with
Speaker 1: Sa Blanciga and Rebakna, like, yeah, those are your three
Speaker 1: neutrallly best players if they're all informed. But right now,
Speaker 1: I don't think you can put her in that category,
Speaker 1: which means she's, you know, she's a risk of retirement,
Speaker 1: she's a risk of withdrawing, she's a risk of getting upset,
Speaker 1: which opens, I think opens the door for Q two
Speaker 1: to anyone because I certainly don't have any any strong
Speaker 1: confidence that Sachary is going to do anything in this tournament.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I have no bet currently in Q two nothing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, same, And I think the answer really is wait
Speaker 1: to see where the qualifiers land and see if we
Speaker 1: can get like one hundred to one on somebody. But
Speaker 1: maybe so you know, because that if there's a if
Speaker 1: there's a totally ridiculous surprise that's going to come from there.
Speaker 1: The Q three we.
Speaker 2: Look through it and see, like, who would I ridiculous?
Speaker 2: Who would I be shocked by? I mean everybody? Right,
Speaker 2: Lynchu's playing well, but I'm not betting on her fifty
Speaker 2: to one. No, what about a Sloan Stevens who obviously
Speaker 2: won this tournament. But she's fourteen to one. It's not
Speaker 2: like she's super long.
Speaker 1: No, sound a big enough price, right, that's not a
Speaker 1: good price. Really, like the whole sect in tier, which
Speaker 1: is usually where you shop when you kind of feel
Speaker 1: like the you know, the favorite is vulnerable. No one
Speaker 1: in that that tier really inspires me. So Q two
Speaker 1: is going to be a wild card I think, not
Speaker 1: not a technically a wild card, but you know what
Speaker 1: I mean, like a shocker totally, which again kind of
Speaker 1: helps the case for ego. Like if she's taken on
Speaker 1: a beaten up Cocoa in the quarters and then gets
Speaker 1: a wild card in the semis, and you know, is
Speaker 1: fresher for the finals and whoever comes out of the bottom,
Speaker 1: that's huge.
Speaker 2: Right now, Though you must pick a you must pick
Speaker 2: a way you don't have to bet on this, but
Speaker 2: you must pick a winner right now. For Q two,
Speaker 2: the person you would say real quick would be I'll
Speaker 2: say it with you, last name three two one Mukova.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's it's Mukhova. But she played so
Speaker 1: much tennis in Cincinnati too, Like, I really.
Speaker 2: Did you think that since it? Did you get the
Speaker 2: feeling that the players were over that tournament this year?
Speaker 1: Didn't get that read I My takeaways were more like,
Speaker 1: why are they taking this so seriously? Right? Like? Why
Speaker 1: was Djokovic? Why was Djokovic Autkraz the most to the death? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Why was that the most hotly contested best of three
Speaker 1: match we've seen in ten years? That was? That was
Speaker 1: so so it was unbelievable.
Speaker 2: I said out loud. I'm like, can you imagine that?
Speaker 2: Like Southern Ohio? Like the they ended up with this match? No,
Speaker 2: no disrespect to Southern Ohio, but it's not It's notn
Speaker 2: New York City, you know what I mean. I was like, Wow,
Speaker 2: this is bizarro and it was amazing. It was amazing.
Speaker 1: That was the best Masters final that I can remember. Uh,
Speaker 1: I'm sure there's one. I'm sure there's one from years
Speaker 1: ago that I'm forgetting there's probably a given.
Speaker 2: The given the players though, I mean, you're right, what
Speaker 2: was the call? Like I forgot his name? The the uh,
Speaker 2: the Australia South Africa. I think is a shot making
Speaker 2: of the gods. He said in the middle of yes, yes,
Speaker 2: that was was That's very very correct, Yes, yeah, but.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was that. That match was incredible. I was
Speaker 1: kind of like, these guys don't really they're not really
Speaker 1: They're not just going to point for the US Open.
Speaker 1: They're really gonna leave it all out here. Okay, let them,
Speaker 1: let them go. I'm enjoying it. Same thing with the
Speaker 1: Ega Cocoa match. You know, that felt like that, that
Speaker 1: felt like it had consequence. And wait again, like I'm
Speaker 1: more nervous about the you know, the ego's potential at
Speaker 1: the you know, in Flushing Meadows, if you know, if
Speaker 1: Coco's coming from another part of the draw, that's not
Speaker 1: as challenging because you know, snapping a lifetime seven zero
Speaker 1: streak where you are not competitive in all seven not competitive,
Speaker 1: you know, that's a big mental hurdle to clear. And
Speaker 1: I think, you know, whatever work Coco is doing with
Speaker 1: Brad Garrett Brad Gilbert, uh and whatever. Her just a
Speaker 1: general you know kind of focus and pressure she's brought
Speaker 1: to this swing considering how poorly her season started. Like
Speaker 1: I'm happy for I really wanted, you know, her to
Speaker 1: take this step forward and I was kind of like
Speaker 1: a little nervous and distressed about the quality we were
Speaker 1: seeing from her and uh, you know in the fall,
Speaker 1: in the winter and spring and you know even into
Speaker 1: the summer. So I'm glad she's she's here. But I
Speaker 1: think that she got absolutely she was the cold water.
Speaker 1: She got the cold water for me with this draw,
Speaker 1: because I would have said, you know, twenty four hours ago,
Speaker 1: out have been like she should be your absolute, no doubt,
Speaker 1: second choice yep for this for this title. And now
Speaker 1: I think like if she gets to the semi finals,
Speaker 1: she's got to feel really really positive about that. And
Speaker 1: if she gets there, I think she's going to be
Speaker 1: on fumes. Now that that said, you know, again we're
Speaker 1: talking about a Q two opponent who might be you know,
Speaker 1: like the Magdalenette of the Australian Open kind of setup.
Speaker 1: You know, like like just a truly happy to be
Speaker 1: here type of player, and that might be you know
Speaker 1: what she needs to ultimate get this title, so I'm
Speaker 1: not ruling it out, but a boy, I feel like she,
Speaker 1: you know, her her probability and her odds and her
Speaker 1: prices all of a sudden here upside down, considering how
Speaker 1: tough that path is. Two three, we talked a little
Speaker 1: bit about the Goula's quarter.
Speaker 2: I love that from the well.
Speaker 1: The next way, and that is sound quarter. But I
Speaker 1: think I think I'll save my favorite bet for just
Speaker 1: a minute here. But the Google's quarter is tough too.
Speaker 1: She does not have an easy path out of there
Speaker 1: at all.
Speaker 2: I think that was Samsonova keys for undress bottom.
Speaker 1: There a lot of really yeah, a lot of a
Speaker 1: lot of really players with success at this a venue,
Speaker 1: players with who are playing well now like there's a
Speaker 1: lot of there's a lot of trouble for the Gooula
Speaker 1: in there. My guess is that quarter comes down to
Speaker 1: von Drusiva versus sam Sonova. But I'm not sure if
Speaker 1: you all some of the offshore prices. But sam Sonova
Speaker 1: has drifted aggressively in a couple offshore markets, so it's
Speaker 1: almost I feel like someone almost knows that something's not
Speaker 1: right with her physically. I have not heard this, But
Speaker 1: I'm getting this weird pattern of when my price is
Speaker 1: very off market on sam Sonova, I am just getting
Speaker 1: railroaded both ways. Like I'm like, you know, with like
Speaker 1: the Rebecca Samsanova match in Canada, I was like, why
Speaker 1: is this not mine's two fifty Rebecca? What is going
Speaker 1: on here? She went off as like a small favorite
Speaker 1: there I could I could not. I could not like
Speaker 1: square that price even remotely. And of course sam Sonova
Speaker 1: comes back from one to six and wins that.
Speaker 2: I think I had sam Sono for that day, had yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: that was the one. Yeah.
Speaker 1: She's been playing well, and you know, I think she
Speaker 1: can get out of her section, and but I don't
Speaker 1: think she beats Van Drusiva, and I worry a bit
Speaker 1: about her physically, And again the drifting of her price
Speaker 1: has got me spooked, like someone knows she's not physically well.
Speaker 1: She's always a question mark about winning seven matches, So
Speaker 1: I anny good conscience, say play whatever.
Speaker 2: You know, she's always drew, She's always a question mark
Speaker 2: when she has seven match points, let alone do any
Speaker 2: seven matches.
Speaker 1: What was that last year against Do.
Speaker 2: You remember that? I was on a plane for that
Speaker 2: and I was I had her in that match, and
Speaker 2: I could not believe what.
Speaker 1: I was watching. I was in Hawaii. I almost threw
Speaker 1: my phone over the back too, was like, what is
Speaker 1: what has happened?
Speaker 2: Speaking about this? Has nothing to do with that. Anybody
Speaker 2: speaking of that? I had I texted you. I don't
Speaker 2: know if I texted you on this. I had Mark
Speaker 2: Andrea Westler. I believe that's an I don't know like
Speaker 2: you pronounce it. I had him against Schivchenko last on Sunday,
Speaker 2: the day of the Alkoraz Djokovic match in Winston Salem.
Speaker 2: They played a few matches the first day and I
Speaker 2: I got him at plus two hundred. He was plus
Speaker 2: one fifteen by match time, which is maybe the sickest
Speaker 2: CLV I've ever got in my life on anything. He's
Speaker 2: up for love in the final set and Chivchenko quits.
Speaker 2: This is be Yeah, So that was you talk about,
Speaker 2: Like the Samsonova throwing the phone, That was about as
Speaker 2: close to pure abject frustration as I've ever gotten on
Speaker 2: any of this stuff. I'm like, when you're good, you're
Speaker 2: you can't win.
Speaker 1: Sometimes sometimes that's the harbinger of really good things are coming. Right.
Speaker 1: If you're if you if you're because like if you're
Speaker 1: reading the matches right, but the people looking at your
Speaker 1: accounts are like, well he sucks. Yeah, yeah, this guy's leading,
Speaker 1: Like give him what he wants. Sometimes that's the that's
Speaker 1: the sign that it's about to go hot. So I'll
Speaker 1: give you that as a lifeline there. But yeah, I
Speaker 1: know sam Sonova and to me, I think this is
Speaker 1: how Q three shakes out. I like in that match
Speaker 1: and really like, if you can crack Q three, I
Speaker 1: think you've got a finalist. And I think you got
Speaker 1: a finalist.
Speaker 2: Price does le Fernandez interest you at all in any form?
Speaker 1: No, she's done it before.
Speaker 2: He's done it before. By the way, Emma's not in this.
Speaker 2: Emma Rotakanu is not a part of the draw.
Speaker 1: Where is she? I don't believe, so I don't think.
Speaker 1: I think she's still recovering from risks. Yeah, don't quote
Speaker 1: me on that though the maybe back surgery I can't remember,
Speaker 1: but she'll be back next year probably the Q four
Speaker 1: For me at least, this is I'm not exactly sure
Speaker 1: why sablink is plus one twenty ish. I feel my
Speaker 1: number to say she should be over fifty percent there,
Speaker 1: and it's because Q four is weak. And yes I'm
Speaker 1: including John's Drew bor in that commentary. And I think
Speaker 1: my favorite way to play the women's draw is a
Speaker 1: stage of elimination. Rina Sablanca semi finals.
Speaker 2: Wow, what's the number.
Speaker 1: It's going to be big. It hasn't popped yet, but
Speaker 1: it's going to be like, yeah plus two fifty ish
Speaker 1: would be my guest because she's got a winner re
Speaker 1: quorter and then lose that that match in the semis.
Speaker 1: And I count me among the people that believes that
Speaker 1: this is an actual thing with her right now that
Speaker 1: you know she cannot get past whatever mental demons exist.
Speaker 1: Regarding the semi final experience. The one semi final was Magdalenett. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, if that was a tougher, that was not
Speaker 1: Magdalenet in that moment was is she Is she the
Speaker 1: Australian no champion? I don't know. All I know is that, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know that you can really hold
Speaker 1: Wimbledon against her because on like raised her level pretty
Speaker 1: impressively in that match to oust her. But some of
Speaker 1: the other talk about, yes, yeah, for sure, go there,
Speaker 1: We'll go there right next. But yeah, I mean some
Speaker 1: of the some of the semi final losses. The Mukhova
Speaker 1: French Open was the worst. You know, some of these
Speaker 1: semi final losses are she's wearing it, you know.
Speaker 2: The Mokhova one was out of control like she was.
Speaker 2: That was her match.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't. I can't recall seeing a more aggressive meltdown.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was brutal. The Anjiboor thing is very is
Speaker 2: very simple, which is you You had her Wimbledon last year.
Speaker 2: She gets all the way to the finals, she loses Tobaccano,
Speaker 2: you have thirty three to one. It was a great bit.
Speaker 2: Anjibor has gotten to three Slam finals, I believe three.
Speaker 1: Three Yeah, two Wimby's in the US Open last year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, she's lost them all. At Wimbledon, like you said,
Speaker 2: she had a couple matches. There was it Sablenka and
Speaker 2: Rabakna where she was unbelievable coming from me.
Speaker 1: Three yeah, three in a row. She she nuked Kvitova.
Speaker 1: Yeah as a dog. She came back on Rebaccna, and
Speaker 1: she came back on Sabalanca come back and yeah, the
Speaker 1: comebacks were highest level that we saw. Actually, the comebacks
Speaker 1: that was the highest level I've ever seen her play tennis. Actually, yeah,
Speaker 1: she was playing better than she played it last years before.
Speaker 2: And the flip side of that then is then she
Speaker 2: gets to the final and she gets just it wasn't
Speaker 2: that she just got beat. It wasn't very difficult to tell.
Speaker 2: It just felt like it was too much. The nerves
Speaker 2: were just it just wasn't She wasn't never gonna win.
Speaker 2: I mean, not taking anything away from from Vandersla, but
Speaker 2: it just I just wonder it. And I agree with
Speaker 2: you about this Satellanca quarter, which is did you bore
Speaker 2: it's Janction when it's Barbara Kurujikova. I guess Casakina is
Speaker 2: probably the next best option there.
Speaker 1: Sabalanca is like sixty to sixteen against her well, and
Speaker 1: my numbers is just the wrong matchup for her, Like
Speaker 1: you know, Kasakia, love her, loved love watching her play,
Speaker 1: love seeing her construct points, loved like seeing her you
Speaker 1: know unraveled, really good, sir, but for but Sabalanca is
Speaker 1: exactly the wrong person to try to get through. So yeah,
Speaker 1: I think Sablanca comes through the quarter pretty cleanly. I
Speaker 1: like plus one twenty there, and then uh yeah, I'll
Speaker 1: be against her in the semi finals until she proves
Speaker 1: otherwise unless it's literally against somebody that she has no
Speaker 1: business losing too. I mean, some of some of these
Speaker 1: losses in the Semis for Sablanca have come at the
Speaker 1: hands of like competent players like Eager Beater last year
Speaker 1: in the Semis, and that was that was not fluky,
Speaker 1: like you know, Ego was the better player ultimately, but
Speaker 1: you know that was a super even match. So yeah,
Speaker 1: until she really conquers that demon, I think, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: I think it's a bet against it in the.
Speaker 2: Semis stage of elimination. Semis when that comes down elimination
Speaker 2: true is all about it.
Speaker 1: Having anything better than anything better than plus two fifty
Speaker 1: is a bet. Okay.
Speaker 2: I'm just looking at some of these other before we
Speaker 2: move on to the men's which is probably not going
Speaker 2: to be nearly as fascinating. Well maybe it will be.
Speaker 2: I'm looking at just some of the I'll use DraftKings.
Speaker 2: What else do they have here? Not to win EGA's
Speaker 2: minus three p thirty, not to win the tournament? Uh
Speaker 2: first time winner, Yes is minus two eighty. I guess
Speaker 2: no is two to one. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I meant to ask you something before we move off
Speaker 1: them entirely yeah, do you have a thesis about the
Speaker 1: uh the have you duty ball? Oh?
Speaker 2: I don't know what is yours?
Speaker 1: I'm struggling in here. Yeah it if you don't already know.
Speaker 1: Last year they used this the regular duty balls, and
Speaker 1: a bunch of the women complaint because they use the
Speaker 1: heavy duty balls for the men. My guess is that
Speaker 1: the heavy duty balls just they don't pop as much fuzz, right,
Speaker 1: so they it's it's a little bit, it's a little tougher.
Speaker 1: It's tougher to hit through a ball when it's when
Speaker 1: it's like, you know, coming apart. So it should, in
Speaker 1: my opinion, handle the more powerful players. If they're using
Speaker 1: the heavy duty.
Speaker 2: Ball, I should should benefit.
Speaker 1: That should benefit that yeah if you if yeah, if
Speaker 1: you're trying to hit through, it should help you. So
Speaker 1: should benefit a player like Sabalanca. You should benefit a
Speaker 1: player like IgA uh Vakna if she's got it to google,
Speaker 1: if she's got it like it could shock out. If
Speaker 1: that matters.
Speaker 2: I thought, you know, I feel in the category of
Speaker 2: all complaints, I thought last year's sort of the Sunshine
Speaker 2: Double was it was it Indian Wells in Miami where
Speaker 2: they used the smaller balls. Do you remember that episode.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, that was.
Speaker 2: A that I agreed with like that, I'm like, why
Speaker 2: are we doing that? I did, I mean Eagle was
Speaker 2: she hated that? But yeah, no, I'd agree with you.
Speaker 2: I think if anything would benefit But I don't know,
Speaker 2: like how much I put in that when handled.
Speaker 1: I think, I think take a player like Sabolenca, look
Speaker 1: at some of her early round winner do cors error
Speaker 1: ratios last year, compare them to what she looks like
Speaker 1: in the first couple of rounds this year, and maybe
Speaker 1: draw some conclusions. But I don't have a very strong
Speaker 1: piece of son that. I just it's a point of
Speaker 1: a point of note that things that that is different
Speaker 1: this year.
Speaker 2: One last player I just want to just for thoroughness
Speaker 2: his sake. Sloan Stevens in twenty eighteen beat Mattie Keys
Speaker 2: in Q three. That's Vondra Sovas. We both like Vondrosova. There.
Speaker 2: We didn't talk beforehand. Did you put any stock in
Speaker 2: Mattie Keys having a run good?
Speaker 1: Yeah, surely, yeah, if she's right physically, she could. I
Speaker 1: I don't really get what's going on with her. We
Speaker 1: saw some highs from her at Wimbledon. Net were a
Speaker 1: total surprise to me, and then we've seen some most sins,
Speaker 1: so it's tough tough to really kind of pinpoint what's
Speaker 1: going with her physically. But yeah, I'm not really not
Speaker 1: really super excited about any of the US women where
Speaker 1: they landed in rout this year.
Speaker 2: DraftKings has a prop SIA tech at Sabalaca and Pagoula
Speaker 2: versus the field minus one forty, the field is plus
Speaker 2: one hundred. What's your instinct on that? Without having to
Speaker 2: crunch the numbers.
Speaker 1: I would just put that in the EGA bucket only.
Speaker 2: Yep, my riction too, all right.
Speaker 1: I mean we didn't really give her a ton of air.
Speaker 1: We didn't here. But like, she won, she won toront
Speaker 1: she won Montreal. I've heard a lot of people saying
Speaker 1: that conditions ball blah blah blah, this is Montreal is
Speaker 1: a very very fair analog for what to expel here
Speaker 1: in conditions beat at Montreal.
Speaker 2: And she won the title on the double header for Samsonova. Right, Yes,
Speaker 2: she had to play twice in one day. By the way,
Speaker 2: A lot of people get upset about that, but like
Speaker 2: the way I understand that these tournaments in order to
Speaker 2: extend it a day it cost them so much money,
Speaker 2: so they can't when like Weatherin is involved. So essentially
Speaker 2: Pagoula got to play a tired player later.
Speaker 1: In the day. Yeah, it was effectively a title, Yeah exactly.
Speaker 2: I mean, I love her and everything. I've bet on
Speaker 2: her many many, many times over the years to to
Speaker 2: good success. But I don't I don't see it here. Yeah,
Speaker 2: all right, men'sa We started out by saying this one
Speaker 2: you did agree to, which is, oh, boy, Djokovic is
Speaker 2: in Q four, He's got, you know, an out of
Speaker 2: for ali Asim Taylor, Fritz is in there, and then
Speaker 2: sitz Bass plays Milos around it in the first round,
Speaker 2: which maybe for first round matches might be the greatest
Speaker 2: of them all, because you never know with roundage, there's
Speaker 2: always the puncher's chance in what is his last tournament?
Speaker 2: By the way, John Isner and roundage last tournament, right Isner?
Speaker 2: For sure, I don't know about rounded shit. I think
Speaker 2: it is probably.
Speaker 1: Last tournament.
Speaker 2: Keene Shikry, you said, what was that.
Speaker 1: You think this might be his last torment?
Speaker 2: I mean he hasn't. The thing is, he hasn't played
Speaker 2: in so long, for so many at least a year now,
Speaker 2: right where he's just.
Speaker 1: Gotten back on it's been on weird lower level stuff. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I kind of feel like there's a bunch of guys
Speaker 1: who are kind of making the last run out this time. Yeah.
Speaker 2: How about if you're John Isner, right, or rounded any
Speaker 2: of these guys and you're like you were a spectacular
Speaker 2: tennis player. It's like Tommy Hearns right, had the misfortune
Speaker 2: of being born when Marvin Hagler and Sugar Ray Leonard
Speaker 2: were born, so they just sorry, John Isner, you probably
Speaker 2: would have won a lot of tournaments, but and maybe
Speaker 2: a slam who knows, but you were born at the
Speaker 2: same time Djokovic and a Dald Federal or I'm sorry.
Speaker 1: He did win a lot of tournaments. They were just
Speaker 1: all in Atlanta.
Speaker 2: That's right, all to fifty. His serve is not quite
Speaker 2: what it used to be. So anyway, I just mentioned
Speaker 2: everybody of note in Djokovic's quarter, like this is a
Speaker 2: free pass to the summers.
Speaker 1: It's a free pass, and actually it's a free pass
Speaker 1: to the final because okay, there are there are four
Speaker 1: men in this draw who have better than a five
Speaker 1: percent chance of beating Djokovic, and they're all on the top.
Speaker 2: Alcarez Medvedev, Sinner and demoneur.
Speaker 1: I goes vere I was gonna yeah, and there's Verev.
Speaker 1: I'm only giving it to him because what we saw
Speaker 1: two years ago in that summer.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so let's start out.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all four on the top, so he's only gonna
Speaker 1: have to play one of them.
Speaker 2: Alcarez, Verev and Sinner are all in Q one. By
Speaker 2: the way, there's other like Dimitrof, Thompson, Evans, Greeks. I mean,
Speaker 2: there's some players who had a good hardcore season, but Alcorrez,
Speaker 2: very and Center all in Q one, Q two, for
Speaker 2: my money, is the most competitive. Medvedev, Demonor or Cots, Barrettini, Montfee,
Speaker 2: rube Lev, hatching Off. It's pretty good.
Speaker 1: Yeah on one.
Speaker 2: And in Q three you're you're probably right. I mean,
Speaker 2: Caspar Rude, he's not beating Jokevich, Tafo puncher's chance, but
Speaker 2: you know, not really his best this year. Davidevich, Kina
Speaker 2: all was tough, Pulgarune. He doesn't have the best hard
Speaker 2: core numbers, by the way. Quarda and then my well,
Speaker 2: shall I give a couple of quarter picks. I got
Speaker 2: Tommy Paul seven to one in Q three, I.
Speaker 1: Mean the numbers would tell you he's clearly a top
Speaker 1: ten hard quarter right now, which I feel like defies
Speaker 1: the eye test a little. But the numbers are what
Speaker 1: they are, and.
Speaker 2: I think QT I think demonor twelve to one in
Speaker 2: Q two is worth a is worth a bet. It's
Speaker 2: a tough quarter, but I really do based on numbers,
Speaker 2: I think those are the best quarter bets on the board.
Speaker 1: Well, I can't really strongly disagree the the macro view
Speaker 1: of the men's draw is if Djokovic doesn't make the final,
Speaker 1: it's because he's got he got defaulted for hitting a
Speaker 1: ball girl Like that's like, that's like I think that's
Speaker 1: just that's the scariest thing that could knock it out
Speaker 1: of this uh this, you know, this tournament. Before the final,
Speaker 1: we just.
Speaker 2: Had great During the podcast. By the way, Jimmy mccaro,
Speaker 2: Hall of Famer, welcome the podcast. He didn't have much
Speaker 2: to say about tennis. I just have to play that out,
Speaker 2: Hall of Famer.
Speaker 1: I so I guess I'm not even really being glib.
Speaker 1: I don't think anyone on the bottom half of the
Speaker 1: draw realistically has a chance to beat Jokovic. This includes
Speaker 1: this pass. This includes Rune and you know, the rune
Speaker 1: part of the story is a tough one for me
Speaker 1: because I have a bunch of dead runee tickets. I remember, basically,
Speaker 1: I've greeted him. I've greated him in pens greeted him
Speaker 1: in pencil at.
Speaker 2: Bel What month did you bet those? You bet them
Speaker 2: early in the.
Speaker 1: Year, jure, it was a while ago because I figured
Speaker 1: I figured he was going to have his and lows
Speaker 1: and do well in the mass you know, do all
Speaker 1: the Masters, but you know, kind of struggle at the
Speaker 1: Slam level, figure out best of five as we went
Speaker 1: through the season, and you know, maybev peaking when everyone
Speaker 1: else was gassed when we got to the you know,
Speaker 1: the US Open. But it did not play out that way.
Speaker 1: He went deep into the French Open, he went deep
Speaker 1: into Wimbledon. He really really really kind of fired all
Speaker 1: of his bullets in the spring and summer, and he
Speaker 1: is a limpid right now. And you know when he
Speaker 1: won Paris last year is his breakout tournament that was
Speaker 1: it was a Masters. It's worth It's at the end
Speaker 1: of the season, so people kind of forget about it.
Speaker 1: I think Jack Sock won one year, or you know,
Speaker 1: Jack Sock made it one. Yeah, Jack Sock might have
Speaker 1: won it one year. I feel like Philip Kravinovit Kredenovich
Speaker 1: went to the finals one year there, like Paris has
Speaker 1: some weird results, but the Rune result was special because
Speaker 1: he beat Djokovic head to head in that final, and
Speaker 1: it was like, oh my god, like he's got that level.
Speaker 1: That's awesome. Like Djokovic was super informed and he beat
Speaker 1: him head to head, and so you have that kind
Speaker 1: of mental ammunition. You're you're you're gonna win a Slam
Speaker 1: one day, and you know, I kind of assumed that
Speaker 1: it would be a summer of back and forth battles
Speaker 1: between Djokovic and Outkraz, and those two might be, you know,
Speaker 1: take enough damage that Rune could sneak you know, an early,
Speaker 1: an earlyish title, because sometimes the US Open is a
Speaker 1: debutante type of experience. You know, it was it was
Speaker 1: for Medvedev, it was for al Kraz last year, it
Speaker 1: was for a team finally getting his first title, and
Speaker 1: you know, like you know, you know, there there is
Speaker 1: a whiff of that. But the problem is Djokovic just
Speaker 1: hasn't played very much tennis this year, right, Like he
Speaker 1: is way way way later load to this point of
Speaker 1: the season than he normally would be, and I think
Speaker 1: that matters. I think that because some of his US
Speaker 1: Open results over the balance of his career are the
Speaker 1: least impressive of the slams, which doesn't entirely make sense,
Speaker 1: but you know, you know, he doesn't do especially well
Speaker 1: in humidity, he doesn't do especially well in daytime matches
Speaker 1: in community and oh, by the way, they play the
Speaker 1: men's final in the day, in the heat of the day, and.
Speaker 2: It looks like he was going to collapse in that
Speaker 2: match against Alcarez in Cincinnati.
Speaker 1: Yeah he did. It's not he doesn't. He does not
Speaker 1: perform especially well physically in these conditions. So he's got that.
Speaker 1: He's got to overcome that, truly. But you know, just
Speaker 1: the fact that he hasn't really fired as many bolts
Speaker 1: this year, I think matters. And Brune, on the other hand,
Speaker 1: is just absolutely on fumes. Now. If Rune like surprises
Speaker 1: and makes a run here, like, I'll be happy for him.
Speaker 1: I mean, I would like to see him kind of
Speaker 1: get to the level of an alcoraz And and you know,
Speaker 1: give us a real deal rivalry at the Slam level
Speaker 1: for the next generation. But it doesn't. I feel like
Speaker 1: I'm a year early there maybe and then Rude. I mean,
Speaker 1: if you have Rude Djokovic semi final, I probably lay
Speaker 1: five hundred on Djokovic without really blinking if we have
Speaker 1: who and and like the other guys in that, Yeah,
Speaker 1: Tommy Paul is absolutely live to come through Q three.
Speaker 1: I suppose is always gives sure a little bit. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's he's he's a tough, tough, tough out.
Speaker 2: But I don't believe. I don't believe in Quorda.
Speaker 1: Okay, Okay, I don't. I didn't. I'm not gonna bet him,
Speaker 1: but you know, who knows what you're gonna get with him.
Speaker 1: But the because his highs are high, the so I
Speaker 1: think ultimately the you know, the path for Djokovic out
Speaker 1: of Q four is very straightforward path to the final
Speaker 1: in that you know, whoever comes out of Q three
Speaker 1: is very straightforward and the opposite from Again, from a
Speaker 1: macro standpoint, I don't think you could have given al
Speaker 1: kas a worse stretch to get there. It really, it's bad,
Speaker 1: it's crazy crazy. Tilted in favor of Djokovic in terms
Speaker 1: of path, al Kraaz's path includes Dan Evans who won
Speaker 1: Washington in round three. I don't think Dan is live.
Speaker 2: He was like he's gonna be and yeah, he's amazing
Speaker 2: in Washington.
Speaker 1: His Yeah, his path includes Scam Nori who beat him
Speaker 1: in Rio and in just In just in general can
Speaker 1: even if Scam does not win that match, he could
Speaker 1: make it go five hours. That's what he does. So, uh,
Speaker 1: you know he's going to potentially do a little bit
Speaker 1: of damage and then you got to play the winner
Speaker 1: of potentially Zverev sinner. Sinner plays Aucraz tough, probably should
Speaker 1: have beat him last year in the quarterfinal. I think
Speaker 1: they played that was effectively that the facto final last
Speaker 1: year at the US Open. Sinner's tough, Zaverev is tough.
Speaker 1: I've seen enough from Zverev in this run since his
Speaker 1: French Open semi that I think he's I think he's
Speaker 1: as bad as he's going to be. And the best
Speaker 1: he ever played was his US Open run where he
Speaker 1: almost beat Djokovic in the semi finals, came oh so
Speaker 1: close two years ago, and if that guy shows up,
Speaker 1: he could definitely beat Alcarez. In my opinion, I don't
Speaker 1: know that there is enough of a gap between those
Speaker 1: players to say Alcaz should be better and bigger than
Speaker 1: like minus two hundred in that match. And uh, and
Speaker 1: so it's going to be tough for Alcarez to get
Speaker 1: out of Q one. Presumably. I guess Medvedev is your
Speaker 1: favorite in Q two. I don't have a strong read
Speaker 1: Q two. And what's going on with him?
Speaker 2: Yact, Yeah, Medvedev would surprise me earlier. It wouldn't surprise
Speaker 2: me whatever happens with him. I could see him winning
Speaker 2: the court. But that that court, I'm curious who you
Speaker 2: like here Medvedev? Uh, the Drapers, yaris per cells of
Speaker 2: the world, all who have you know have have can
Speaker 2: be a little bit fright demonnor or cotts beryt tiny
Speaker 2: who had his best would be trouble mown Fie at
Speaker 2: his best is trouble, rube lev Coorich hatching up. I
Speaker 2: mean that that quarter is super state. Let me what
Speaker 2: is your point about al Khorre If you had to say,
Speaker 2: the best five hard court players in the world right now, Djokovicalkores,
Speaker 2: whichever order you want to put him in, Medvedev three,
Speaker 2: Sinner four. Who am I missing in the top five?
Speaker 1: I think Zarah at current four.
Speaker 2: Probably point being all the other four are all.
Speaker 1: Up in the top. Yeah, yeah, right, Yright and and Zvere.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm cud a sinner is only going to
Speaker 1: have to play probably he's only going to have to
Speaker 1: play one. He may play two of them. Alcrazy may
Speaker 1: play two the but you know Medvedev uh when I
Speaker 1: usually when you see a quarter and medvedevs in there,
Speaker 1: my initial reaction as well, who's on the bottom of
Speaker 1: that quarter and it's his little brother Vera. Yeah like
Speaker 1: that that big brother little brother relationship. I don't think
Speaker 1: is over. So sorry, Rube Love maybe another year. He definitely,
Speaker 1: he's still really needs he can't get over the quarterfinal
Speaker 1: to save his life. And and I think your point
Speaker 1: is fair where all of the kind of dark horses
Speaker 1: all landed in Q two. You mentioned her catch he
Speaker 1: he I don't. I don't think he should have beaten outcast,
Speaker 1: but he was there, He was there.
Speaker 2: His serf in that tournament was unbelievable. I mean about
Speaker 2: Alcarez because this is related to that. Alcarez has played
Speaker 2: a lot of tough matches where guys have really pushed him,
Speaker 2: and he ends up winning almost all of them, except
Speaker 2: for the Djokovic one. But does that like give you
Speaker 2: a little bit of pause with him where you're like, Okay,
Speaker 2: you're not exactly crushing people at this point, no question.
Speaker 1: But it's not about the not rushing people. It's much
Speaker 1: more about your your effectively electively taking damage.
Speaker 2: You're accumulating your fatigue.
Speaker 1: What are you doing? Yeah, yeah, why don't accumulate this fatigue?
Speaker 1: Win these matches and straits and preserve your best stuff
Speaker 1: for when it matters most like that should be the
Speaker 1: you know, the mental calculus. And he'll get there. Surely
Speaker 1: he's young enough that maybe it doesn't matter as much
Speaker 1: for him as it would for a player who was
Speaker 1: in their later twenties or thirties. But considering the fact
Speaker 1: that now two out of the three most high profile
Speaker 1: matches he's played this year, he's basically failed physically, I
Speaker 1: would say that a something he should have higher, you
Speaker 1: know more, more priority on not taking this fatigue. You
Speaker 1: should have you know more, And and I think coming
Speaker 1: into this tournament Alcarez a week ago before, before they
Speaker 1: played the Cincinnati Final, he was the favorite here in
Speaker 1: the US Open. I think we might have even talked
Speaker 1: about it in your show. But Wendre and the thesis
Speaker 1: was like, okay, like he's playing too much like Djokovic.
Speaker 1: If he's a dog in the head to head is
Speaker 1: the bed like this is? This is going to be
Speaker 1: pretty straightforward. I don't think there's any way Djokovic closes
Speaker 1: his dog in a final against outcrast now, not considering
Speaker 1: what he's going to go through to get there, not considering,
Speaker 1: you know, what happened in Cincinnati, and not considering how
Speaker 1: much more Tennessee's played in this hard court swing. So
Speaker 1: Outcras winning this tournament would genuinely surprise me.
Speaker 2: So if we have, we just sort of talked ourselves
Speaker 2: into a plus. I mean again, you can't mean plus
Speaker 2: one twenty five is not good enough. I guess on
Speaker 2: Djokovic to win the tournament, but it ain't terrible.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, like I have to math it out
Speaker 1: a little bit, I guess. But but two, there's value
Speaker 1: in Djokovic in pocket in two ways. One is al
Speaker 1: Krez gets popped, which he could, And one is Djokovic
Speaker 1: is just going to close like minus one fifty against
Speaker 1: him in the final.
Speaker 2: And Djokovic will have no tread on the tire and
Speaker 2: Alchorrez will.
Speaker 1: Have tens of it correct, correct.
Speaker 2: Correct correct right ergo the minus one fifty, So I yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean this couldn't have broken better for Djokovic. Could not.
Speaker 1: I really couldn't. There's whiffs of there's there's whiffs of uh,
Speaker 1: this is maybe the last one where he beats Southcres.
Speaker 2: It would also be twenty four for him from time Margaret,
Speaker 2: Yeah right, but yeah, I mean he's got that way.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's whips.
Speaker 2: Yeah that that did have that Cincinnati final did have
Speaker 2: a little thriller in Manila to it.
Speaker 1: Yes, great call, yes, which was exactly Ali.
Speaker 2: Ali won, but he knew in the corner, this is
Speaker 2: the end of the greatness.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this was it. And I I if the draw
Speaker 1: wasn't the way, it wasn't stacked in his favor, I
Speaker 1: don't know that I would be saying this with such sincerity,
Speaker 1: but I think he wins this US Open, and I
Speaker 1: think this I'm not saying that this is it, like
Speaker 1: he certainly could win the next year. He certainly could.
Speaker 1: He's you know, we still have no idea if Alcarez
Speaker 1: has the goods to win on the speed, speedy courts
Speaker 1: in Australia. But yeah, I think, I mean, you know
Speaker 1: the crossover was this year, right, Yeah, Alcaraz on the
Speaker 1: way up, on the way down. And what happens next
Speaker 1: is alcaz is minus two hundred every time the play,
Speaker 1: you know, so it's it's this is it thought. He's
Speaker 1: got to recognize that too.
Speaker 2: I'm sure he does, though, I mean I can I'll
Speaker 2: cite the Agacy book again. I mean when you read
Speaker 2: so when you read about a guy's career like that,
Speaker 2: where you just when he gives you a window into
Speaker 2: his mind every not only every tournament, but every match
Speaker 2: where his head was with Brooks Shields, where it was
Speaker 2: with you know, Deffie Groff, like all this, all the
Speaker 2: things that are going on in his life and how
Speaker 2: as it better. We would never have had any idea, right,
Speaker 2: we would never have been able to know the intangibles.
Speaker 2: But with a guy like Djokovic, you kind of know
Speaker 2: you're getting it every time the best. There's there's no
Speaker 2: Djokovic being distracted right at this point, So at least
Speaker 2: we have that going for you. Now your point is
Speaker 2: still well taken. I mean, Novak Djokovic is. And we'll
Speaker 2: get the up to the up to the day age.
Speaker 2: Right here, he's thirty six years old. Thirty six years old.
Speaker 2: He turned thirty six in May. Who was it?
Speaker 1: Was it?
Speaker 2: I can't remember. I'll forgive me for I don't remember
Speaker 2: who said this on Twitter, but during that match he
Speaker 2: pointed out, he goes the best tennis players in the world,
Speaker 2: The best two tennis players in the world are thirty
Speaker 2: six and twenty like that thing about how right, that's nothing.
Speaker 2: Shouldn't be that way, shouldn't be that way sports avant.
Speaker 2: I want to say it was who said that?
Speaker 1: Yeah, that sounds right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, thirty six and twenty and uh, you know Veederer
Speaker 2: is gone, Nadal's about to be gone on and you know,
Speaker 2: only amount of time joke which we will see. Like
Speaker 2: in other words, unlike with Ega, where the path cleared
Speaker 2: for her with with Ash Barty and as you said,
Speaker 2: Naomi was sucking. Anyone was talking who won four slams herself?
Speaker 2: Like Ego's just tied with Naomi. That's amazing to think
Speaker 2: about it that way. This would be, you know, who
Speaker 2: would be the one to challenge Alcarez moving forward? I
Speaker 2: don't know who I would rune. I guess I even.
Speaker 1: Want to go with the well, yeah, I mean I
Speaker 1: think we're expecting that at some point Center doesn't mentally go.
Speaker 1: We're expecting that at some point Rune gets a little
Speaker 1: bit more physically rote Busto. Yeah, and if either of
Speaker 1: those two things happens, then you got a three way
Speaker 1: race like the old Big Three, which would be exciting.
Speaker 1: I think that's what men's tennis wants. That's what I
Speaker 1: want to I would love to have a little rotating
Speaker 1: route where you're trying to figure out who's the best
Speaker 1: on which surface between those guys. That would be awesome.
Speaker 1: Alcarez probably is the best of those players, but there
Speaker 1: may be surface specific ways that other guys can get
Speaker 1: an edge on it. That'd be awesome. I think. I
Speaker 1: think the analog is going back to the women's side,
Speaker 1: is like Osaka took the ground from Serena and that
Speaker 1: was it. Serena realistically didn't have another shot at the
Speaker 1: Slam in her after that from what I remember, And
Speaker 1: I think that is, you know, we're close to there
Speaker 1: for this rivalry between Djokovic and alcaz And it's been
Speaker 1: a really special year of tennis because of the fact
Speaker 1: that these two have been so like like objectively close
Speaker 1: in my talent and it's because of the perfect crossover
Speaker 1: of you know, Djokovic coming off peak and Alcarez approaching
Speaker 1: and uh, you know, the leveling factors were just experience
Speaker 1: and you know, conditioning, and you know, I think reflecting
Speaker 1: on the French Open, I'm glad I was where I
Speaker 1: was market wise, but it was it's even more clear
Speaker 1: now that that was just a tactical war and the
Speaker 1: experience should have been the factor that you know mattered
Speaker 1: the most, much more than you know, ability, shot making comfortable,
Speaker 1: you know, surface We named it like that was that
Speaker 1: was just a tactical war. And that same advantage wasn't
Speaker 1: there at Wimbledon because Djokovic just had didn't have enough,
Speaker 1: didn't have enough information on what Alcras on grass was
Speaker 1: and Autumn by surprise to a degree, and I think,
Speaker 1: you know, the hard core data that I've got and
Speaker 1: the feeling that I've got, you know, kind of handicapping
Speaker 1: these players, says Djokovic wins this head to head if
Speaker 1: it gets there in a let's pretend all of this,
Speaker 1: you know, this fan fare about how how much harder
Speaker 1: alcas path is does not materialize, saverev gets popped, Center
Speaker 1: crashes out to an ultimate iron type of player around
Speaker 1: two and and and you know some some you know
Speaker 1: somebody that's that's true. Surprise wins Q two and al
Speaker 1: Kraz's path is just as plain as Djokovic is in
Speaker 1: that neutral handicap. I still think I'm laying price with
Speaker 1: Djokovic because for whatever reason Alcrez does not. He's he's
Speaker 1: a little bit too aggressive still in terms of trying
Speaker 1: to force a point, trying to like trying to end
Speaker 1: a point, and you can't play that way against Djokovic,
Speaker 1: and he needs to learn that the hard way. And
Speaker 1: Cincinnati was probably part one, and I feel like a
Speaker 1: US Open final is probably part two, and maybe it
Speaker 1: gets he finally gets solved by the family, get to
Speaker 1: Australia or maybe it's next to us, but I don't know.
Speaker 1: It could be longer, I guess. But to a degree,
Speaker 1: trying to play that way against Djokovic is asking for trouble,
Speaker 1: and Alcarez plays that way against everybody too. Like, I
Speaker 1: don't think it's an accident that he's gone like three
Speaker 1: sets against Max Pursoll. Yeah, I don't think it's an
Speaker 1: accident that he's like losing to you know, Hubert Hubert
Speaker 1: or catch right like this.
Speaker 2: Is this is a great point, Dre, this is this
Speaker 2: is Brugain. I didn't expect to talk about this three
Speaker 2: different times. But Brad Gilbert's biggest advice to Andre Agassy
Speaker 2: as his coach, which led him one could argue Brad
Speaker 2: Gilbert was with him or seven out of his eight slams,
Speaker 2: was Andre, you don't have to be perfect on every point.
Speaker 2: Let your opponent lose the point. And this was his
Speaker 2: biggest revelation. Like, Agassi's mind was blown by this because
Speaker 2: up until that point in his life, no one had
Speaker 2: ever said that to him before. And there's a little
Speaker 2: bit of that with Alcarez.
Speaker 1: You're right, yeah, yeah, a little bit and like and
Speaker 1: actually I may be reaching here, then we may be
Speaker 1: too far down narrative street. But uh, it felt like
Speaker 1: he could have maybe reinforced that lesson the wrong way
Speaker 1: with level, you know, like he won he won that
Speaker 1: wimble To match because he was making shots that we
Speaker 1: haven't seen tennis player making right as long as I
Speaker 1: can remember. And he did a little bit of that
Speaker 1: in Cincinnati too, But he had to really, really really
Speaker 1: work hard to make those and it's tough, it's a
Speaker 1: tough way to live. It's tough way to be. You're gonna,
Speaker 1: you're gonna, you're gonna induce a physical strength, you know,
Speaker 1: strenuous physical demands like that are tough in a five
Speaker 1: hour match, and that's probably what we're looking at. So
Speaker 1: I think to a degree, the inexperience that he will
Speaker 1: bring into this current head to head, even if it
Speaker 1: is neutral in every other way, I think I'm still
Speaker 1: lay the price with Jokerich in the funnel. And I
Speaker 1: think market wide, I don't see any like. I don't
Speaker 1: see like a set of circumstances where the market makers
Speaker 1: all sided flip and say no, no, al Karez needs
Speaker 1: to be the favorite US, right, Djokovic, I think I
Speaker 1: unless he's literally limping in off of an injury, I
Speaker 1: think Djokovic goes off minus.
Speaker 2: One fifty, which, again, short of having done the math
Speaker 2: here on a match by match basis and hypothetical lines,
Speaker 2: plus one twenty five would be a nice thing to
Speaker 2: have in pocket.
Speaker 1: Yeah right, right, because the other universe where it's Djokovic
Speaker 1: against right now, yeah, sinner, I mean, you know the
Speaker 1: other universe where Alkaraz gets popped. You know, Djokovic is
Speaker 1: like minus five.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: The last thing I was I was at the uh
Speaker 2: was that sports book at at Aria the other day
Speaker 2: and somebody asked me. They're like, oh, you know because
Speaker 2: they listen to the show. They're like, I, you know,
Speaker 2: you know, we know you're ahead of the curve on Ega.
Speaker 2: You were ahead of the curt on Alcoraz. Is there
Speaker 2: someone out there like that now? And I said that, like, well,
Speaker 2: you know, the reason that it was more about Ega
Speaker 2: than Alcoraz is because with the big it was harder
Speaker 2: to project Alcoraz like when that would be that he
Speaker 2: would overcome this, And now we're here and those guys
Speaker 2: two and three are retiring at least if Nadala in
Speaker 2: fact goes through it that here within a year, which
Speaker 2: you will. And the answer that I came up with,
Speaker 2: I was like, the difference is is that in those days,
Speaker 2: you know, you knew that those three guys were getting older,
Speaker 2: and in the on the women's side, there wasn't that
Speaker 2: much top heaviness where you're like, okay, she can't overcome this.
Speaker 2: Now it's sort of like, you know. The the closest
Speaker 2: comp I could come to was mirr Andreva, right where
Speaker 2: someone who's not really known because the runees of the
Speaker 2: world are known, so mir Andreva was the closest. But
Speaker 2: I'm like, yeah, but still, like you said, like all
Speaker 2: the mainly the stats we have are on ITF and Challenger, right,
Speaker 2: they're not.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's really really tough to parse that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're not main draw stats. So it's like, I
Speaker 2: don't know, we I mean, this could be the state
Speaker 2: of tennis with this kind of top heaviness of these
Speaker 2: two e Go on one side, Carlos Alkaraz on the
Speaker 2: other for a decade. I don't know, might be.
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I mean, and I think if you kind
Speaker 1: of build out a probability distribution that's got to be
Speaker 1: at least twenty percent.
Speaker 2: That's a lot. Yeah, it's a lot. So just in review,
Speaker 2: we both like vonder Silvia. You like her into the finals.
Speaker 2: I like her to win the quarter as well like you.
Speaker 2: I you like che stage of elimination for sabal Anca.
Speaker 2: And I think we both agree about how the Djokovic
Speaker 2: draw is just a beautiful, beautiful thing. Have you had
Speaker 2: any chance to look at first round matches, by the way,
Speaker 2: or I don't think the prices are even out yet.
Speaker 2: Are they let me see.
Speaker 1: I'm just looking them to come out in the last
Speaker 1: hour or two.
Speaker 2: I have room. I have not. I'm looking right now,
Speaker 2: and at least in certain far away places, they don't exist.
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what though. I then get boots on
Speaker 1: the ground around wonder round two.
Speaker 2: Oh really?
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, buddy, Oh wow, hold on, this is we're getting.
Speaker 1: We're getting boots on the ground. We're gonna get some
Speaker 1: some inside inside intel.
Speaker 2: Oh really?
Speaker 1: Uh yeah. I heading heading to uh New York on Sunday.
Speaker 2: Good for you. I am meeting Sunday, meaning the day
Speaker 2: after tomorrow or the day or three days Sunday, day
Speaker 2: after tomorrow.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm going to catch the madness of a million.
Speaker 2: Rounds, so I am. I am trying to do the
Speaker 2: first weekend so nice. Yeah, next week, but I have
Speaker 2: not got confirmation of that. But that wouldn't that would
Speaker 2: entail me leaving after a Numbers game Friday, showing up
Speaker 2: for night matches, spending all day Saturday there early Sunday,
Speaker 2: and their bouncing, which I which I would love.
Speaker 1: You know how, I know tennis is in a really
Speaker 1: good place.
Speaker 2: That we're willing to do that.
Speaker 1: No, it's like the hottest ticket since Taylor Swift came
Speaker 1: to town. Like really, it's it's it's crazy, crazy, crazy
Speaker 1: what the ticket prices are?
Speaker 2: Like the good true I told you when I went
Speaker 2: to when I went to Indian Wells, which you said ago,
Speaker 2: no one goes to that tournament. I was like, usually
Speaker 2: it was packed, packed and and this is is not
Speaker 2: an easy place to get to, and it was packed.
Speaker 1: Netflix impact, Netflix effect is that what's going what what's
Speaker 1: happening here? I don't, Oh, you know what it is.
Speaker 1: It's the megapod. We're getting people, We're getting people fired
Speaker 1: up for tennis.
Speaker 2: That's what it is. True, It's a megapod. It's exactly
Speaker 2: what's doing it. I honestly think it was because wait
Speaker 2: a minute, I can go in California desert and like
Speaker 2: watch the Egos and the and the Carlitos of the
Speaker 2: world up closing. But my God, to count me in.
Speaker 2: I do think there's also still even at that point
Speaker 2: I said, there was still a post pandemic thing where
Speaker 2: people wanted to get out of the house. I think
Speaker 2: we're past that now. But I think, but you're you're
Speaker 2: probably right about the US Open, like that is going
Speaker 2: to be Mayhem.
Speaker 1: It's a hot ticket man.
Speaker 2: Yeah, where do you stay? By the way, I will
Speaker 2: you don't have to give an exact location because I
Speaker 2: don't wan people talking to you, but like where you
Speaker 2: in the city.
Speaker 1: I have a combinations away. I'm not sureful, I don't
Speaker 1: I don't know where.
Speaker 2: Oh are you?
Speaker 1: Are you? Are you? So?
Speaker 2: You are you going on behalf of NBC.
Speaker 1: To go No, No, we'll do it. We're doing a
Speaker 1: talent HQ in Stanford, tad over to a flutch meadows
Speaker 1: and evening.
Speaker 2: But this I have a great trip. I'll try to
Speaker 2: tag team at the end of well, I'll tag team.
Speaker 2: I'll come in when you're leaving. That'd be awesome. Dude,
Speaker 2: thank you so much. Let me just say this also
Speaker 2: to people Drew Dinzick, for those who listen to this
Speaker 2: podcast and listen to a numbers game, Drew does everything
Speaker 2: that we ever ask him to do, like it. I
Speaker 2: cannot tell you how appreciative I am for how accessible
Speaker 2: you are. After all this time, I want you to
Speaker 2: know how much I appreciate that man and these Obviously
Speaker 2: when it comes to tennis, it's sort of a labor
Speaker 2: of love for you and me. Like this we love
Speaker 2: this so much that we're we're kind of willing to
Speaker 2: talk about this whenever. By the way, forgive me, I
Speaker 2: like interrupted you five times at the beginning because I'm
Speaker 2: so excited to talk about it. But I just want
Speaker 2: to tell I just want everybody to listen to know
Speaker 2: how awesome you are and just being accessible because a
Speaker 2: lot of people, frankly, how can I put this, They
Speaker 2: don't really get how this works. And maybe maybe people
Speaker 2: who really have more reason to show up than you
Speaker 2: do have an excuse why they don't. So I just
Speaker 2: want to say, I I love that about you, and
Speaker 2: I always appreciate. I want you to know how much
Speaker 2: I appreciate about.
Speaker 1: That, all right, of course, it's it's it's a it's
Speaker 1: a karmic Uh. It's a karmic endeavor on top of
Speaker 1: a labor club. Uh. And uh. You know, the more
Speaker 1: people we get into the support of tennis, and from
Speaker 1: a vetting standpoint, the more we grow the interest in
Speaker 1: the sport and the handle, I think it helps us all.
Speaker 2: So may you have a profitable US Open man.
Speaker 1: You as well. Thank you. Let's put a ball on
Speaker 1: this season.
Speaker 2: Let's do it, and safe travels to New york Man.
Speaker 1: Have a great time, all right, take care of guys.
Speaker 2: Drew Dinsing, Everybody Whale, Underscore Capper again, the podcast The
Speaker 2: Deep Dive with Andy Molletor, and of course NBC Sports
Speaker 2: Bet the Edge. Good luck with all your tennis bets
Speaker 2: for this next couple of weeks of the US
Speaker 1: BATA, the Sacba Batanga Bata, Sacraban Badang Bot