WEBVTT - Michael Nathanson: Disney Going All In On Streaming 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.200 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.360 we bring you interviews from CEO, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.600 along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:17.000 Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:20.320 and on Bloomberg dot com. One of the more interesting 0:00:20.360 --> 0:00:22.520 stories out there in the marketplaces you look at individual 0:00:22.560 --> 0:00:25.159 companies as a Walt Disney company. Here's a company that 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:27.400 a couple of years ago really made a hundred eighty 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:30.560 degree pivot in their business to really focus on streaming 0:00:30.960 --> 0:00:32.960 UH and they're starting to get some rewards there. And 0:00:32.960 --> 0:00:35.800 there's absolutely nobody better to walk us through the Walt 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:38.159 Disney story than Michael Nathanson. Michael is one of the 0:00:38.320 --> 0:00:41.839 leading research analysts on Wall Street. He's a founding partner 0:00:41.880 --> 0:00:44.680 and senior research analyst at Moffatt. Nathan said, Mike, thanks 0:00:44.720 --> 0:00:47.279 so much for joining us here. Some some numbers last 0:00:47.400 --> 0:00:49.640 night out of Disney. I'd love to get your takeaway 0:00:49.640 --> 0:00:51.640 because this is a company that right before our eyes, 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:55.240 it's really changing its entire business, isn't it. Yep, Good 0:00:55.240 --> 0:00:59.320 morning to you, Paul Paul Um. What's amazing is, you know, 0:00:59.400 --> 0:01:01.760 two years. I give them credit because two years ago 0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:06.320 they made a really difficult decision of pulling back content 0:01:06.400 --> 0:01:10.039 that they had sold to other people and forging revenues 0:01:10.040 --> 0:01:13.800 and profits in cash and having to go build it themselves, right, 0:01:13.920 --> 0:01:19.360 and you know, people were a bit dismissive of that decision, uh, 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:22.080 doubting whether or not they could pull it off. And 0:01:22.120 --> 0:01:24.440 what they've done in the past, you know, two years 0:01:24.480 --> 0:01:26.960 he's just remarkable, it really is. You know, almost a 0:01:27.040 --> 0:01:30.440 hundred million subscribers at Disney Plus. Um. You know, they've 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:34.480 taken control of Hulu from comcasts and that's going very nicely. 0:01:35.200 --> 0:01:38.360 And it's really interesting to me is that then, you know, 0:01:38.400 --> 0:01:40.880 the focus from the investment community had always been on 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:43.440 court cutting and ESPN is you know, which you know 0:01:43.600 --> 0:01:46.400 very well, and that doesn't come up anymore, right like that, 0:01:46.480 --> 0:01:49.800 those questions are no longer relevant now it's really about 0:01:49.800 --> 0:01:53.760 the size and the profitability potential of this new director 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:57.240 consumer business at their building. So Michael, you know, obviously 0:01:57.680 --> 0:01:59.960 there are so many elements of this to talk about, 0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:02.400 but just briefly before we move back to what I'm 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:04.480 sure will be most of the conversation. What does Doesney 0:02:04.480 --> 0:02:07.160 do with his theme parks? Does it downplay them completely? 0:02:07.240 --> 0:02:10.760 Does it make them smaller? Does it stop expanding? Okay, 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:13.880 hi Vanni, Notice that's a good question. Theme parks are 0:02:13.880 --> 0:02:16.799 really important to the Walt Disney Company. H Here's why. 0:02:17.160 --> 0:02:19.560 Because they are a source of cash and there's a 0:02:19.560 --> 0:02:23.000 source of growth. You look at theme parks the past decades, 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:26.760 so it has become the engine. So it used to 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:29.399 be cable networks, but theme parks really became very important 0:02:29.639 --> 0:02:33.680 to Disney's financial picture. Um. They run the theme parks, 0:02:34.520 --> 0:02:36.720 you know, amazingly in terms of their ability to drive 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:40.800 pricing and profits, and I think it remains a central 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:43.960 piece of the Disney you know, the Disney machine. I 0:02:43.960 --> 0:02:46.240 think over time the question will be is when did 0:02:46.280 --> 0:02:49.040 Disney start opening up theme parks in other parts of 0:02:49.040 --> 0:02:51.160 the world. As you know, they're in Hong Kong and Shanghai. 0:02:51.680 --> 0:02:54.200 But you know, is there a Latin American theme park coming? 0:02:54.320 --> 0:02:56.920 Is there an Indian theme park coming? Um? You know, 0:02:57.160 --> 0:02:59.560 you know, I think as time goes on and streaming 0:02:59.600 --> 0:03:02.600 becomes a more successful and more global, you know, maybe 0:03:02.600 --> 0:03:05.160 Disney starts opening up theme parks in other parts of 0:03:05.160 --> 0:03:07.399 the world. But so I think theme parks are core 0:03:07.400 --> 0:03:10.519 intential to what Disney does. And Michael, I'd love to 0:03:10.560 --> 0:03:13.560 get your thoughts on their filmed entertainment business. You know, 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:18.040 obviously just the dominant, dominant player in UM Hollywood with 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:20.520 all the brands that they have, but now with this 0:03:20.639 --> 0:03:24.440 pandemic um the traditional windowing where they could make money 0:03:24.440 --> 0:03:27.000 in the theaters and then the pay television and someone 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:29.960 that just you know, window after window monetize an asset. 0:03:30.680 --> 0:03:33.600 Is that permanently changed, Mike? Yeah, Paul, you know that 0:03:33.800 --> 0:03:37.680 is purbently changed. We cover the theater industry too, and 0:03:37.680 --> 0:03:39.680 and you know what what Wall Street has done is 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:45.000 we've incentivize film studios that own GtC companies to go 0:03:45.120 --> 0:03:48.160 more direct, right, to go direct and summer and you're 0:03:48.160 --> 0:03:52.080 gonna see less films being put into theater um only 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:54.360 the big ten poles and blockbusters. And even when they're 0:03:54.360 --> 0:03:57.440 in the theater, the question is will they be released 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:01.680 day and date on DCC on direct consumer platforms? Right, 0:04:01.920 --> 0:04:05.960 So you know, we are applotting Disney's ability to grow 0:04:06.000 --> 0:04:09.640 their address and tumor business. And you know, Wall Street, 0:04:09.640 --> 0:04:11.480 as you know because you've been analynced like me for 0:04:11.480 --> 0:04:14.760 a while has put a very low evaluation on anything 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:18.280 really to film, and very high valuation on things you 0:04:18.320 --> 0:04:21.240 know that are streaming. So they'll still be filmed and 0:04:21.279 --> 0:04:23.440 device question at theme parks, they're still the films that 0:04:23.480 --> 0:04:27.680 benefit the entire Disney enterprise, you know, ten poles, you know, 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:30.760 but those are gonna be fewer and far between, uh 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:33.560 for the industry, and Disney will move those movies much 0:04:33.600 --> 0:04:37.359 more quickly onto their own platforms to drive more value 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:40.520 for consumers and then drive pricing. How do they keep 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:44.599 the quality up over time? It seems like now you know, 0:04:44.640 --> 0:04:47.360 there's a writer's room for every you know, New York 0:04:47.360 --> 0:04:52.160 condo building, and they're necessary, you know, But we're getting content. 0:04:52.360 --> 0:04:54.800 I feel like the newer content out of Netflix, these 0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:57.599 these movies that they're premiering on Fridays, they're they're just 0:04:57.680 --> 0:05:00.880 they're just okay, They're not great. Can they keep up 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:06.720 the the quality that will keep people attached to Disney Plus? Yeah, 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:09.920 you know, that is a great question that we don't 0:05:09.920 --> 0:05:13.880 get enough of. Um there's just an assumption that you know, 0:05:13.960 --> 0:05:17.240 content easy to make, and you know, and there's not 0:05:17.320 --> 0:05:23.600 much of a of any kind of measure of of quality. Right. Um, 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:25.800 if you look at HBO for the for many years, 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:30.440 HBO just somehow year in year out produced great quality content. 0:05:31.120 --> 0:05:34.760 I think it comes down to, Um, the people who 0:05:34.760 --> 0:05:38.719 are green lighting these these productions at Disney, they've got 0:05:38.760 --> 0:05:42.120 really strong creative executives, and then it comes down to 0:05:42.600 --> 0:05:46.520 the people you hire to actually make this vision and 0:05:46.520 --> 0:05:50.279 and and tell the story. Um. That's the question I 0:05:50.320 --> 0:05:52.480 had for the management team a couple of quarters ago. 0:05:52.640 --> 0:05:54.680 I said, look, you know you guys, but Didney did 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:57.800 really well? Was they made less films? Those films were better? 0:05:58.360 --> 0:06:01.440 So I don't know. That's certainly a risk. Right when 0:06:01.480 --> 0:06:04.920 you expand your your output, do you have the same 0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:07.920 quality control? We don't know. HBO has done it. But 0:06:07.920 --> 0:06:10.280 then to your point in Netflix, Netflix has a lot 0:06:10.320 --> 0:06:14.000 of things that miss. Um. You know, we're aware of 0:06:14.080 --> 0:06:16.359 the things that are really good because they become you know, 0:06:16.440 --> 0:06:20.440 front page, streaming, streaming, you know content. But there's a 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:23.600 lot of misses. And their model it's kind of built 0:06:23.640 --> 0:06:25.200 for that because they take a ton of shots on 0:06:25.240 --> 0:06:27.840 goal with a huge budget. Did think he has always 0:06:27.839 --> 0:06:30.360 been a company that's just had less shots on goal 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:33.279 and those shots are always gone in. It's a great question. 0:06:33.760 --> 0:06:35.920 It bears watching. But the people who are making those 0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:40.400 decisions are still top of their field and that that 0:06:40.480 --> 0:06:42.760 hasn't changed yet. I'm more worried, let's say, at HBO 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:45.599 and A T and T, because Warner Brothers HBO have 0:06:45.680 --> 0:06:48.400 seen a change of leadership, and you wonder, like, will 0:06:48.440 --> 0:06:51.480 that lead down the road to a quality change they 0:06:51.520 --> 0:06:53.960 need to clone Joel Kinnaman. I think Michael Nathanson, he 0:06:54.000 --> 0:06:56.560 seems to be doing everything these days. Michael Nathanson, thank 0:06:56.600 --> 0:07:00.240 you so much for that wonderful analysis and context. Michael 0:07:00.240 --> 0:07:03.040 a senior research analyst at Malford Nathanson. On Disney There 0:07:03.040 --> 0:07:07.679 which is now down seven tenths of represent well. Western Union, 0:07:07.960 --> 0:07:10.960 we know the name for decades and it's a global name. 0:07:11.120 --> 0:07:13.240 Just had earnings and we've got to welcome in now 0:07:13.320 --> 0:07:17.200 chief financial officer Raj agre Wall, who is their chief 0:07:17.200 --> 0:07:21.040 financial officer. As I already mentioned, Raj, just briefly tell 0:07:21.120 --> 0:07:24.000 us about the trends that you saw during the pandemic. 0:07:24.040 --> 0:07:28.360 Did people need to use Western Union more? Hey, thanks 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:31.880 for having me. Yes, absolutely. Um, you know, we actually 0:07:32.000 --> 0:07:34.960 saw that the need to receive money during the pandemic 0:07:35.360 --> 0:07:38.160 over the course of the last twelve months was greater 0:07:38.240 --> 0:07:41.840 than ever before. Um. We also saw shifts in terms 0:07:41.840 --> 0:07:44.120 of how people were using our business. You know, we 0:07:44.200 --> 0:07:47.480 have obviously a very broad retail network, but we have 0:07:47.760 --> 0:07:51.239 also a fantastic, um you know, well growing digital business 0:07:51.800 --> 0:07:54.200 that is now present in more than seventy five countries, 0:07:54.280 --> 0:07:57.880 and so we saw a tremendous growth in our digital 0:07:57.880 --> 0:08:02.400 business because people were looking very frequently for online ways 0:08:02.440 --> 0:08:04.760 of sending money to their loved ones. And you can 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:08.440 imagine that during the pandemic. Um you know, in many 0:08:08.560 --> 0:08:11.120 of these other countries were going through a very difficult time, 0:08:11.200 --> 0:08:14.240 which they continue to do so, and the people who 0:08:14.240 --> 0:08:16.640 had the ability to send continue to send money, and 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:19.640 they used our business quite frequently. So, you know, we 0:08:19.680 --> 0:08:21.760 really saw a mixed shift not only in our business 0:08:21.760 --> 0:08:25.000 but also in the market overall, where digital parts of 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:28.880 the market really took off during the course of last year. Roger, 0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:33.439 we still have persistent higher than we would like unemployment 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:36.800 in the United States. How has that impacted your flows 0:08:36.800 --> 0:08:40.520 and your business? Yeah, I mean, we we were very 0:08:40.600 --> 0:08:43.439 much a global business, Paul. You know, we we are 0:08:44.120 --> 0:08:47.880 present in two hundred countries and territories around the world. Um, 0:08:48.000 --> 0:08:50.560 the US is obviously a very important market for us. 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:53.800 But yeah, we we certainly saw, you know, some impacts 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:57.160 in the unemployment. The pandemic is not behind us yet. 0:08:57.440 --> 0:08:59.760 We need to see how things play out. We are 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:03.280 uming that the second half of this year will be 0:09:02.920 --> 0:09:06.000 in a better position economically, not only in the US 0:09:06.080 --> 0:09:10.160 but also globally as the vaccines are more widely distributed. 0:09:10.200 --> 0:09:14.079 So we're hoping for a better second half economically. And uh, 0:09:14.559 --> 0:09:16.800 you know, I think that again, people who have had 0:09:16.840 --> 0:09:21.080 the ability to send money, people who are still employed 0:09:21.080 --> 0:09:23.679 and making money, they've continued to use our business at 0:09:23.679 --> 0:09:26.680 a at a high rate. And uh, we've also seen 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:30.040 the amount of principle going through our business go up 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:33.040 quite quite a bit. We grew a cross border principle 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:36.200 by twelve percent last year, whereas the entire market was 0:09:36.240 --> 0:09:39.280 probably down a little bit. So, you know, I think 0:09:39.559 --> 0:09:41.960 we're still getting good, good traffic and people still have 0:09:42.000 --> 0:09:44.840 a need to receive money. I'm a customer myself of 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:47.880 our business, and I've spent more money in the last 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:50.920 twelve months and I have historically because my you know, 0:09:50.960 --> 0:09:53.000 my relatives have a need to get that money. So 0:09:55.320 --> 0:10:00.199 why the decision to increase the dividend. It's a it's 0:10:00.200 --> 0:10:02.719 really a trend. We've had a track record over the 0:10:02.800 --> 0:10:06.960 last fourteen years. We've increased the dividend by in thirteen 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:09.960 of those fourteen years. So we have a lot of 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:12.760 confidence in the strength of our business. We know that 0:10:12.840 --> 0:10:16.640 regenerated a strong, you know, large amount of cash flow 0:10:16.760 --> 0:10:19.959 last year, regenerated about nine million dollars of cash operating 0:10:20.000 --> 0:10:22.520 cash flow. We'll have another good year this year, and 0:10:22.559 --> 0:10:25.720 we think it's really what our shareholders want. And so 0:10:25.760 --> 0:10:28.800 we've raised the dividend um in in thirteen of the 0:10:28.840 --> 0:10:31.200 last fourteen years and this is just a continuation of 0:10:31.200 --> 0:10:34.320 that trend. And uh, you know, we're looking for good things. 0:10:34.320 --> 0:10:37.880 We have a good strategic agenda this year, and paying 0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:40.160 a good, healthy dividend there's a key part of that 0:10:40.240 --> 0:10:43.839 for us. Roger talked to us about the competitive landscape 0:10:43.920 --> 0:10:46.080 for Western Union. You guys have obviously been in this 0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:49.680 business for a long long time, have tremendous brand value, 0:10:49.960 --> 0:10:52.720 but just a lot of technological competitors, whether it's you know, 0:10:52.760 --> 0:10:54.760 the apps, Venmo or something like that. Talk to us 0:10:54.800 --> 0:10:59.760 about the competitive landscape for Western Union. Sure, yeah, and 0:10:59.800 --> 0:11:03.600 then before we have a very large and strong and 0:11:03.679 --> 0:11:07.040 faster growing digital business. Our digital business will be about 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:09.320 a billion dollars in size this year in terms of 0:11:09.320 --> 0:11:12.680 revenue side, and we are very focused on the cross 0:11:12.760 --> 0:11:16.800 border remittance market as you know, and there are many 0:11:17.200 --> 0:11:19.920 acts like Venbo is much more of a domestically oriented 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:22.240 product here in the US, so ours is much more 0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:25.560 about spending money all around the world, and that's really 0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:28.720 where our strength is. We have the ability to settle 0:11:28.720 --> 0:11:31.200 in a hundred and thirty currencies in a matter of minutes. 0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:34.520 We have the regulatory and compliance capabilities that go with it. 0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:37.600 We serve a number of different kinds of partners. We 0:11:37.679 --> 0:11:40.800 have a white label offering that we've you know that 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:45.280 we're partnering with banks and other fintech type players, so 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:48.199 we can really be the back end providers to other companies, 0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:51.000 even other digital players that may not have the reach 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:54.720 that we do. Uh Saudi Telecom is one example that's 0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:57.920 been very successful for us in Saudi Arabia. We have 0:11:58.000 --> 0:12:00.920 another one in Russia with Spare, which is a bank 0:12:01.200 --> 0:12:04.560 is one of ourgest bank in Russia, and so we 0:12:04.600 --> 0:12:07.240 really have a number of different angles. We have a 0:12:07.280 --> 0:12:10.760 branded Westernunion dot Com offering and uh, it's you know, 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:13.760 I use our services as well, and you can you 0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:16.280 can initiate and complete a transaction in a matter of 0:12:16.360 --> 0:12:18.959 thirty seconds, and I can deliver the money from my 0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:22.880 loved one in India in a matter of seconds. Very briefly, Ange, 0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:27.040 if fees are quite high, considering some competitors don't charge 0:12:27.120 --> 0:12:29.120 really at all, are you going to do anything about that? 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:34.760 You know, our our fees are very representative of the 0:12:34.800 --> 0:12:37.840 costs of doing business that we you know, it's not simple, 0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:41.440 it's not free to really move money around the world. Um, 0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:44.720 you know, to to have the regulatory and compliance capabilities 0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:47.880 and to actually protect consumers in terms of when they 0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:50.680 send their money. Uh, there's a cost of doing business 0:12:50.760 --> 0:12:53.000 and two hundred markets and that's where we're doing. We're 0:12:53.000 --> 0:12:56.520 in the business to make money, and the other others 0:12:56.559 --> 0:12:58.920 who are are not charging a fee, it's not a 0:12:58.960 --> 0:13:01.520 sustainable business all for them. So that's really the way 0:13:01.520 --> 0:13:03.760 we look at it. Okay, Ros, thanks so much for 0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:06.040 joining us. Really appreciated raj Agrea Wall he's a chief 0:13:06.040 --> 0:13:13.040 financial officer for Western Union, So we were wondering about 0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:16.000 this question. We have a little bit of an insight 0:13:16.160 --> 0:13:19.560 now into the U. S. China relationship going forward. Joe 0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:22.720 Biden had his first conversation as president with the Chinese leaders. 0:13:22.720 --> 0:13:25.880 She's in pay and spoke of concern about China's coercive 0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:29.240 and unfair economic practices. Let's bring in someone who knows 0:13:29.280 --> 0:13:31.120 a lot more about all of this. Leland Miller is 0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:35.840 CEO of China beige Book International. Leland, did you think 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:38.560 the tone was just a little bit sharp, a little 0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:40.600 bit harsh. What did it indicate to you about the 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:44.800 relationship going forward? Well, I think the call was essentially 0:13:44.800 --> 0:13:48.040 a box checking exercise. Biden at some point had to 0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:50.240 talk to she. But then I want to talk about 0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:53.960 in the early going, there's there's nothing that that you know, 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:56.760 that the Biden administration wants to rush on in terms 0:13:56.800 --> 0:14:00.599 of China policy. The focus is quite clearly domestic and 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:05.199 focused on COVID. So I think that the coal set 0:14:05.280 --> 0:14:07.719 the tone that the White House wanted to to sort 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:10.040 of lay down. You know, we're gonna be tough on you, 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:12.960 that you are a big time competitor. Uh, this is 0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:16.199 a change relationship, but it wasn't deeply substantive. It was 0:14:16.280 --> 0:14:19.240 just sort of a box checking exercise. All right, Leland, 0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:21.320 at some point it has to be something more than 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:25.880 a box checking exercise here. Um, it appears that you know, 0:14:25.920 --> 0:14:29.160 the US's view of China has changed since uh the 0:14:29.200 --> 0:14:32.680 Obama years. The last time President Biden, you know, was 0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:37.040 you know, in in power. There's as we're what do 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:41.880 you think his policy will be going forward? Well, I 0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:45.840 think he he looks at his congressional majority, which is 0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:49.320 very slight and and steves very little allowance for there 0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:52.760 to be a let up in in in toughness on China. 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:56.480 So going forward, what he's essentially planning to do is 0:14:56.560 --> 0:14:59.720 to keep most of the Trump policies intact, at least 0:14:59.720 --> 0:15:02.640 for the or term, maybe even the medium term. Uh. Now, 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:05.040 you're you may see some good will measures. You could 0:15:05.040 --> 0:15:08.320 see the two sides decide to open consulates or you know, 0:15:09.000 --> 0:15:13.480 re re reduce each other's journalists. But essentially you're gonna 0:15:13.520 --> 0:15:16.320 have the same type of China policy carried through for 0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:18.960 a while. Now. When Biden gets into more of the 0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:22.080 foreign policy, uh, you know, COVID's passed, and you start 0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:24.800 looking at other foreign policy moves for the Biden administration, 0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:27.400 whether it's Iran, whether they get tripped up by North 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:30.640 Korea and all of a sudden United States needs China's help. 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:33.240 Then you may start seeing some more outreach, but right 0:15:33.240 --> 0:15:36.880 now there's very little upside for Biden to offer much 0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:41.560 to she Well, what happened with the yuan leland and 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:43.720 what should we be on the lookout for. Is there 0:15:43.760 --> 0:15:46.840 any way that China can send a message by setting 0:15:47.120 --> 0:15:51.800 the yuan differently? Well, I mean, look, the reason that 0:15:51.840 --> 0:15:54.680 you want has been surging, uh for for for many 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:57.840 months now is because of good reasons. Essentially, the Chinese 0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:00.560 economy has been healing much faster than than the U. 0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:03.640 S economy or or other economies around the world. And 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.280 you also have higher rates in China, so there's been 0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:10.560 an appetite for for for capital influence into China, and uh, 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:12.920 you know these are these are good reasons, but they're 0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:15.960 they're turning the situation into a problematic one for China 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:18.000 because it's looking at its exchange rate and it's a 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:20.360 little bit worried that you know, it could be creeping 0:16:20.360 --> 0:16:22.880 towards the towards an area where of real concerns. So 0:16:23.160 --> 0:16:26.760 you know, there are political sensitivities around where they plug 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:29.840 the rate. But right now it's not problem territory. But 0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:31.880 if you if you see a reversal in the US, 0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:33.680 so you see some more bad news coming out of 0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:35.760 US and Europe and more good news coming out of China. 0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:38.920 This is actually gonna be a mixed bag for Beijing 0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:41.360 and the PBS, d L. And do you think the 0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:44.960 Biden administration will, I guess, re embrace kind of an 0:16:44.960 --> 0:16:49.000 internationalism approach to China, whether it's some form of the 0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:53.040 you know, the Pacific you know alliance. How do you 0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:56.120 think the US is is ultimately maybe has the best 0:16:56.160 --> 0:17:00.720 shot of achieving some of its goals visa of each China. Yeah, 0:17:00.720 --> 0:17:03.320 I mean, certainly the talking points are, you know, renewing 0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:07.000 alliances in in consultation with our allies. But you know, 0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:10.320 for for all to talk about that, that's not a strategy, 0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:13.000 that's that's a process. And so what will the bidens 0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:16.760 strategy on China and Asia at large? B That hasn't 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:19.600 written itself yet. I think it's easy to look at 0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:22.199 this with within certain parameters and say Biden is not 0:17:22.240 --> 0:17:24.040 going to pull back the tariffs, at least in the 0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:25.800 early going. Biden is not going to pull back a 0:17:25.840 --> 0:17:28.880 lot of the technology or export controls and the early going, 0:17:29.119 --> 0:17:32.520 you know, but how does things develop from there? They 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:35.280 haven't addressed it. Everything is part of a review and 0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:38.000 now there's reviews to review the reviews, and so this 0:17:38.040 --> 0:17:40.600 has basically been a giant punt by the administration. It's 0:17:40.600 --> 0:17:42.760 fair enough they want to focus on COVID, but at 0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:45.520 some point they're going to have to to address these 0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:48.439 and they just haven't given a you know, a preview 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:50.639 yet of where they're going. Is there any danger in 0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:54.399 taking too stern a tone with China? I mean, obviously 0:17:54.520 --> 0:17:56.840 we saw at the end of the Top administration that 0:17:56.920 --> 0:18:00.639 there were some sanctions placed by China on some of people, 0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:03.960 the people that are in the Trump administration. I sort 0:18:04.000 --> 0:18:07.040 of wondered if that was a message to the Widen administration, Look, 0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:09.080 we want to start again, we want to start fresh. 0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:12.199 We're done with the old administration. And it seems like 0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:16.840 the Widen administrations ignored that message. If there was one. Well, 0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:19.639 I think they're smart to ignore it. Uh one, because 0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:22.919 the Chinese reactor strength, not weakness. But more telling, Lee 0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:26.119 Biden does not have a tough on China reputation over 0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:27.920 the years. I mean, as a senator, he wasn't tough 0:18:27.960 --> 0:18:31.000 on China as VT under Obama, he certainly wasn't tough 0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:33.639 on China. So this is a different political climate. I 0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:35.359 think what the what the White House would like to 0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:38.320 do right now is step the stage saying the times 0:18:38.320 --> 0:18:40.680 have changed. This president is not going to be weak 0:18:40.720 --> 0:18:43.919 on China, and I think that's setting that down as 0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:47.960 sort of the baseline, the fundamental you know, pre step governing. 0:18:47.960 --> 0:18:50.560 The relationship is actually important and it gives them a 0:18:50.560 --> 0:18:52.800 little more wiggle room to do things you know, either 0:18:53.320 --> 0:18:58.000 you know, either strongly or more weak going forward. Leilan, 0:18:58.040 --> 0:19:00.200 thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate your 0:19:00.240 --> 0:19:03.680 perspective as always on all things China and Asia. Leland Miller. 0:19:04.160 --> 0:19:07.280 He's the CEO of the China Basebook International based in 0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:11.840 New York. It is time for we'll be check in 0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:14.879 with Laurence Sour, John's Tompkins University Associate Professor of the 0:19:14.920 --> 0:19:19.160 Emergency Medicine, and for once, perhaps most of this conversation 0:19:19.200 --> 0:19:23.440 will be very upbeat. Dr Sour, we have now enough 0:19:23.560 --> 0:19:27.600 vaccine apparently for everybody in the country by July. Is 0:19:27.640 --> 0:19:31.440 that does that tally with what you know? Your maths says, 0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:37.400 I think UM. Conceptually it does. So it's it's exciting 0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:39.480 to see that these contracts have been signed and that 0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:42.600 there's pushed to move to create vaccine and move it 0:19:42.640 --> 0:19:46.160 forward into the hands of vaccinators. I think UM, where well, 0:19:46.480 --> 0:19:50.040 time will tell how effective our strategies are is in 0:19:50.119 --> 0:19:52.880 the space of making sure that people are there, ready 0:19:52.920 --> 0:19:55.360 to receive it, and that we have the health care 0:19:55.400 --> 0:19:59.480 staff to deliver the vaccine. So it's great to see 0:19:59.520 --> 0:20:02.040 those numbers get up to be able to vaccinate the 0:20:02.040 --> 0:20:06.160 whole country and hopefully support vaccination efforts efforts across the globe. UM, 0:20:06.200 --> 0:20:08.280 and the key will be to convince people to take it, 0:20:09.000 --> 0:20:12.639 especially those hesitant and hard to reach population. So, Lauren, 0:20:12.720 --> 0:20:14.600 the image of the day for me as it relates 0:20:14.600 --> 0:20:16.800 to the pandemics when I saw this morning and it 0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:19.880 was of Dodger Stadium parking lot, and they had all 0:20:19.920 --> 0:20:22.000 the cones set up, all the lines set up, all 0:20:22.040 --> 0:20:25.760 the tents set up, but it was absolutely empty because 0:20:25.760 --> 0:20:29.879 they had no vaccines. Um, what is your experience at 0:20:29.960 --> 0:20:33.760 Johns Hopkins in terms of supply of vaccines and kind 0:20:33.760 --> 0:20:38.440 of the rate at which you are receiving vaccines. Yeah, 0:20:38.800 --> 0:20:41.040 I mean it's a it's a I saw that same 0:20:41.080 --> 0:20:43.199 image and it is like very telling of where we 0:20:43.240 --> 0:20:45.199 are right now as a country and even as a 0:20:45.240 --> 0:20:49.679 world in delivering vaccines to people. So the creation of 0:20:49.720 --> 0:20:52.520 the vaccine and how quickly we got there so impressive. 0:20:52.640 --> 0:20:56.280 But you know, here at Hopkins we're doing we're working 0:20:56.280 --> 0:20:58.639 really hard to vaccinate our healthcare worker staff just so 0:20:58.680 --> 0:21:01.760 that we can be ready at another comes, particularly um, 0:21:01.800 --> 0:21:04.359 if we see a surge after things like the Super 0:21:04.400 --> 0:21:07.520 Bowl or with varying centering into our population. We want 0:21:07.520 --> 0:21:09.520 to be ready and we want to protect our healthcare stuff. 0:21:09.680 --> 0:21:12.280 That being said, I think what we're seeing is that 0:21:12.320 --> 0:21:14.200 there's this group of people who are ready and willing 0:21:14.240 --> 0:21:17.160 to be vaccinated, and then very quickly, once we get 0:21:17.160 --> 0:21:21.119 them vaccinated, the supplies body. So we don't always know 0:21:21.200 --> 0:21:23.120