1 00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:08,360 Speaker 1: Welcome to a special extended edition of Prognosis Daily Coronavirus. 2 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:12,640 Speaker 1: I'm Jason Gale, a senior editor with Bloomberg News. Now 3 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: that the coronavirus has become a household name, we want 4 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:19,160 Speaker 1: to take a deeper look into how pandemic spread. If 5 00:00:19,160 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 1: you want to learn more about what's happening day to 6 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 1: day when it comes to the coronavirus, be sure to 7 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: check out our feed for a daily podcast. But on 8 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 1: this episode, we're diving deep into the scary world of pandemics. 9 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:34,640 Speaker 1: What are they exactly, where did they come from, and 10 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:38,360 Speaker 1: why are they occurring more frequently. We're going to meet 11 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 1: some of the world's most experienced pandemic experts, the men 12 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 1: and women on the front lines of the battle to 13 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: contain COVID nineteen and other global scourges. Dr Michael Ryan 14 00:00:56,720 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 1: is like the chief firefighter of global health. If you 15 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 1: people are busier than this barely affable Irishman. Mike leads 16 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:08,319 Speaker 1: the Emergency's program at the World Health Organization. The United 17 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: Nations Agency has provided specialist technical advice and set guidelines 18 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 1: and standards on international health matters. Since Mike is also 19 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 1: the crisis manager of a United Nations team to address 20 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:24,600 Speaker 1: the pneumonia causing disease that erupted in China at the 21 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 1: end of last year. COVID nineteen triggered a global health 22 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:32,039 Speaker 1: emergency and made coronavirus, the virus that causes it, a 23 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 1: household name. COVID nineteen is the latest and possibly most 24 00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 1: important outbreak that Mike has ever tried to extinguish. For 25 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 1: almost twenty five years, he's been at the forefront of 26 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 1: some of the most significant disease outbreaks. The job has 27 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 1: taken him across Central Africa for more than a dozen 28 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 1: Ebola epidemics alone, but never in his career as he 29 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 1: faced such a rapid spreading, novel disease on a global scale. 30 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 1: It's also a job he never expected to be doing. 31 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 1: Mike said out in life to become an orthopedic surgeon, 32 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 1: but a terrible motorcycle accident in his twenties intervened. While 33 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 1: recuperating from a broken back, he recalled an earlier stint 34 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 1: in Kenya and how he could apply his skills in 35 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 1: public health. Instead. Fit chose to throw me into public health. 36 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:27,679 Speaker 1: But as my grandmother once said to me, only a 37 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 1: grandmother can say this probably the best thing that ever 38 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 1: happened to your son, you know. Mike wound up working 39 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:36,800 Speaker 1: with Dr David Hayman, who's like them, Mick Jagger of 40 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:41,639 Speaker 1: Disease Detectives. Before becoming a professor of infectious disease epidemiology 41 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:46,520 Speaker 1: in London, David tackled smallpox, polio, a bowler and legionnaire's disease, 42 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 1: just to mention a few. In the early two thousand's, 43 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: David led the World Health Organization's response to severe acute 44 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 1: respiratory syndrome or STARS. He was working at the w 45 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:01,639 Speaker 1: h O in Geneva and he was introduced to Mike Ryan. 46 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:04,959 Speaker 1: David had been asked by the Director General to set 47 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: up a program in emerging infectious diseases. He was looking 48 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 1: over some epidemiological data collected in the mid nineties seventies 49 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 1: from an a bowler outbreak and kick with in the 50 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: southwestern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo microcall 51 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 1: is being dragged into an impromptu meeting. At the end 52 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:25,519 Speaker 1: of it, David recognized Mike as somebody could use in 53 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: the field. Then he worked out a way to get 54 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 1: Mike on his team. I got traded. You're not like 55 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 1: in baseball when you don't know the coach just called 56 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 1: you in and says, back your bags, you're going to Minnesota. 57 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 1: That's what happened to me. Fast forward twenty four years, 58 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 1: and this imposing former rugby player now commands an expanded 59 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 1: band of the disease equivalent of global firefighters. On any 60 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 1: one day, they're tackling over thirty outbreaks and natural disasters. 61 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 1: They are the first responders to the planet's biggest, scariest, 62 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: and off most complex health crises. Each year, the team 63 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 1: is facing newer and bigger demands. They're happening everywhere, and 64 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 1: they're happening all the time. Mike says, we have an 65 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 1: eclectic background of people because you know, we have larger stitions. 66 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 1: We have communicators, we have viologous clinicians, we have epidemiologies, 67 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:23,920 Speaker 1: we have so many different people. The diversity of team 68 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:27,679 Speaker 1: members reflects the complexity of these health events. The last 69 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 1: a Bowler outbreak, for example, occurred in a conflict zone 70 00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 1: that made it often dangerous to vaccinate people and to 71 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: trace people known to have been in contact with an 72 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 1: infected individual. Navigating the unique challenges that each outbreak brings 73 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 1: comes down to accumulative knowledge and practical know how. There's 74 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: no training for a crisis response. The only training that 75 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 1: really matters and crisis management is experienced and you know 76 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 1: that is where you learn, when you make the mistakes 77 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 1: and you learn from them. And that's the hard thing 78 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 1: in crisis managers, just coming to terms with the fact 79 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,359 Speaker 1: that you won't always be right. You will always have 80 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 1: to make a decision before you have enough data. And 81 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 1: it's really easy for the armitude generals to sit on 82 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 1: the side and pitching because they have no accountability for 83 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 1: the outcome. And it's easy for the retrospector scopes to 84 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 1: be taken out afterwards and say, surely you wouldn't have 85 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 1: done that. Of course I wouldn't have done that if 86 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 1: I had known what I know now. But what I 87 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 1: knew then was this. And that's the hard part of 88 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:31,800 Speaker 1: crisis manage The easy part is all the science a bit. 89 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:36,919 Speaker 1: The hard part is taking responsibility, becoming accountable for the 90 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: decisions you make, because you're taking communities health into your hands, 91 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: you're taking the lives of your own staff into your hands. 92 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:51,840 Speaker 1: We only need to look at the current COVID nine 93 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 1: team pandemic to see the political ramifications of disease outbreaks, 94 00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:59,839 Speaker 1: and there are hard choices of crisis management to be 95 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 1: made in almost any public health threat. In two thousand 96 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:07,279 Speaker 1: and nine, a new strain of H one N one 97 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 1: influenza emerged in Mexico. It was incubated in pigs but 98 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:16,559 Speaker 1: managed to jump across into people. It sparked a large 99 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 1: epidemic that quickly spread globally in what constituted the first 100 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: flu pandemic in more than forty years. And this new 101 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:29,600 Speaker 1: swine flu contagion spooked the world's flu experts. It wasn't 102 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:33,679 Speaker 1: what they had been expecting at all. Virologists had thought 103 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:37,200 Speaker 1: the next pandemic would have come from bird flu one 104 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 1: that had first popped up in a farmed goose and 105 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:45,040 Speaker 1: southern China, and spread a decade later across Asia than 106 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:49,280 Speaker 1: to Europe and Africa. That avian flu virus, known as 107 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:52,159 Speaker 1: Age five in one, killed about two thirds of the 108 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 1: people who caught it, But the virus never morphed into 109 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 1: a form that was easily transmissible among people, so the 110 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 1: pandemics scientists were expecting never happened, and when swine flu 111 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: came along, world health authorities were blamed for overreacting. Nobel 112 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 1: Prize winning immunologist Peter Doherty says the H one N 113 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 1: one swine flu was designated a pandemic because it was 114 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 1: a virus humanity hadn't encountered in that form before. It 115 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 1: was actually two pig viruses that got together, though some 116 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 1: of the components of that virus went right back to 117 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: the ninety name pandemic virus and it was This is 118 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: part of the problem people automatically associate with pandemic shock horror, 119 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 1: We're all going to die, which may not be totally 120 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: unreasonable with the wou and virus, but a lot of 121 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 1: people may die if it really blows and we don't 122 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 1: get a vaccine or therapeutics quickly. But the because it 123 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 1: was called a pandemic, people are expecting a very severe infection. 124 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 1: And we'd already had all this discussion about the H 125 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 1: five in one bird flu, which didn't go anywhere. But 126 00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 1: I think we were right to try and prepare for it, 127 00:08:06,760 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 1: but it didn't jump. It just shows how really out 128 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 1: poorly we still understand these things. Even though a lot 129 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 1: of efforts gone into understanding why some viruses crossing some done. 130 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 1: It's not just a chance. So um so when they 131 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: announced was a pandemic. Of course, everyone said, oh, we're 132 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 1: in for a terrible time, but it actually turned out 133 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: to be that it was very, very infectious. It was 134 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 1: no worse than the usual seasonal flu. So then everyone 135 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:34,320 Speaker 1: got angry because they said, well, w h O has 136 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:37,959 Speaker 1: been lying to us and calling a pandemic. The pandemic 137 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: strain now circulates as part of the flu viruses that 138 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 1: cause seasonal epidemics. The H one N one virus still 139 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:48,680 Speaker 1: causes a lot of hospitalizations and even debts each year, 140 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: but people by and large don't react to it with 141 00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:54,320 Speaker 1: the same level of alarm that they did when it 142 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:57,680 Speaker 1: emerged more than a decade ago. Some people have looked 143 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:00,480 Speaker 1: back and said, oh, you you public healthy will sounded 144 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,679 Speaker 1: a false alarm with H one N one. This is 145 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:08,559 Speaker 1: Ductor's Home. Freedom, President and CEO of Resolved to Save Lives, 146 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:12,839 Speaker 1: a global initiative of the NGO vital Strategies. He's also 147 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:15,680 Speaker 1: a former director of the United States Sentence for Disease 148 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 1: Control and Prevention. Dr Freedom was Health Commissioner in New 149 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:22,720 Speaker 1: York City during the H one and one pandemic, and 150 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:26,200 Speaker 1: it is true that fewer people died in that pandemic 151 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:29,199 Speaker 1: year than die in an average year that misses two 152 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 1: key points. One, a lot of kids died. The estimate 153 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:35,199 Speaker 1: is dred kids in the US died because of H 154 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:38,840 Speaker 1: one N one. That's a terrible tragedy, and to comparing 155 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 1: it to what shouldn't happen every year is kind of misguided. 156 00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 1: Flu is the Rodney Danger field of diseases. Every year. 157 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 1: It hospitalizes millions of people, kills thousands, tens of thousands, 158 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 1: sometimes hundreds of thousands of people in this country and 159 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:56,200 Speaker 1: around the world, and yet we don't take it as 160 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:58,079 Speaker 1: seriously as we should. Only half of people in the 161 00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 1: US get a flu shot every year, and it's very 162 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 1: rare for people to get the kind of treatment that 163 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:06,439 Speaker 1: they that might shorten the duration of their illness. So 164 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:09,440 Speaker 1: with H one N one, there was, as there is 165 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 1: with many epidemics, a fog of war reality early on, 166 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:17,439 Speaker 1: where you're getting reports in from many places, they're inconsistent. 167 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 1: It's hard to know who to believe. It's confusing at first, 168 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 1: and it's only with really meticulous epidemiology understanding how it spreads, 169 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 1: how readily it spreads, how severe the disease is, in 170 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 1: depth studies that you can get a better sense of 171 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: what is the real burden that this is going to cause. 172 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 1: When public health experts think of pathogens of pandemic potential, 173 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: it's typically the flu that comes to mind. Influenza is 174 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 1: really unparalleled in its ability to cause death and destruction 175 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:57,640 Speaker 1: among all microbes. The paradigm is the nineteen flu pandemic, 176 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:00,320 Speaker 1: which is estimated to have killed up to fifty million 177 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 1: people around the world. When you look at how bad 178 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 1: a pathogen is, you ask two questions. How easily does 179 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:12,239 Speaker 1: it spread and how deadly is it. There are diseases 180 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 1: like rabies that are close to fatal but don't spread 181 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 1: all that readily, And there are diseases that spread quite 182 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 1: readily but don't cause death often. Flu is that rare 183 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:32,080 Speaker 1: exception of a disease which spreads readily and can kill readily. Also, 184 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: and what we're concerned about with the novel coronavirus here 185 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:39,840 Speaker 1: is that it could have that same deadly combination. The 186 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:43,000 Speaker 1: term pandemic gets used to describe all kinds of things, 187 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 1: from HIV, AIDS two diabetes to tobacco related diseases. Many 188 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 1: of these aren't the rapid spreading contagions that spring to mind, 189 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 1: so I asked Tom, how does he define a pandemic. Generally, 190 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 1: a pandemic is an epidemic that's spreading in multiple parts 191 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:04,680 Speaker 1: of the world, not necessarily all parts of the world, 192 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:08,559 Speaker 1: but multiple parts of the world. And influenza meets that 193 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:14,959 Speaker 1: definition because it predictably causes widespread disease in one hemisphere, 194 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,960 Speaker 1: that in another hemisphere, and it circulates around the world. 195 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:23,559 Speaker 1: Leaving aside their health impact, pandemics have tremendous political, economic, 196 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:27,720 Speaker 1: and social consequences. Health is the biggest single impact of 197 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 1: many disasters and conflicts. More wars have been won and 198 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:36,320 Speaker 1: lost by epidemics than ever by armies. Outbreaks provide not 199 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 1: just a look into the workings of the microbial world. 200 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 1: They're critical events that shape human history. My name is 201 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 1: Laurie Garrett. I go to epidemics. Laurie has been observing 202 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 1: and writing about disease outbreaks and pandemics since the seventies. 203 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 1: She is unrivaled in this specialist field of journalism. She 204 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:01,959 Speaker 1: won a Bullet Surprise for a word chronicling in a 205 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 1: bolda outbreak and what's now the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 206 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:10,959 Speaker 1: I don't think there's anything as programmed in the human 207 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:16,320 Speaker 1: DNA as the aversion to illness. You know, you think 208 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 1: about it makes sense right when we're out there as 209 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 1: Nomad's twenty thousand years ago, roaming around, if someone took 210 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 1: ill and then another took ill, you would flee, right, 211 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 1: you would just run away and leave them. And that's 212 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:34,720 Speaker 1: how you survived. Didn't You didn't understand why it happened. 213 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 1: Could be the gods, could be anything but fear of contagion. 214 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 1: I think is is programmed. Laurie cut her teeth on 215 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:47,720 Speaker 1: outbreaks in back then she was a scientist moonlighting in 216 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 1: public radio in San Francisco. That year, she was confronted 217 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:55,840 Speaker 1: with a swine flu virus, an outbreak of legion as disease, 218 00:13:56,320 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 1: and toxic shock syndrome linked to tampons through read big ones, 219 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 1: all in one twelve month period, and it was so 220 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:10,559 Speaker 1: extreme that um Gerald Ford insisted that the head of 221 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 1: the CDC resign. He was essentially fired on camera on NBC. 222 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 1: And it was at a moment when Nixon had just 223 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 1: what five years earlier, created the War on Cancer, and 224 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 1: the whole country was riveted by the prospect of eliminating 225 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 1: cancer and heart disease, and nobody was talking about infectious anything. 226 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 1: It was all history. It was all some something other 227 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 1: people had problems with, not us, And then we have 228 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 1: this year boom. I was in grad school and I 229 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 1: was studying immunology. I was working in the lab at 230 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,720 Speaker 1: Berkeley and Stanford, and on the side, as a hobby, 231 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:59,160 Speaker 1: I was working on a local radio station doing science news. 232 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 1: You every now and then the wire machines, one of 233 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 1: the three or four would start banging, and you'd run 234 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 1: over and to see, you know, who just died or 235 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 1: where was there a coup? Or who just won the 236 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 1: World Series? And that would be about someplace I never 237 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 1: heard of, having an outbreak of something I never heard of, 238 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 1: and uh, nobody knowing what to do, and descriptions of 239 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 1: terror and fear and um befuddlement. And I thought this 240 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 1: was completely in contradiction to everything I was learning in 241 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 1: grad school. How could this be? And so slowly but 242 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 1: surely I got hooked. Laurie has written several books about 243 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:41,800 Speaker 1: outbreaks and public health. Her first was The Coming Plague, 244 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 1: published in The Seven Fifty Pages, Laurie takes readers on 245 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:51,119 Speaker 1: a fifty year journey through the world's battles with microbes. 246 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:54,720 Speaker 1: She's found that most of the time, the real risks 247 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 1: have nothing to do with the pathogens. The danger is people, 248 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 1: specifically how they react to the threat. Anxiety, politics, greed 249 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 1: just a few recurrent themes. I see it everywhere all 250 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 1: the time. I mean every single epidemic and outbreak I've 251 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:16,640 Speaker 1: ever been in. There are inappropriate political statements made that 252 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 1: are based on manipulating public fear. There are opportunistic politicians 253 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 1: that say the wrong things, do horrible things every epidemic. 254 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 1: There's religious people who say and do the wrong things 255 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 1: or declare that it's God's will or that if you 256 00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:39,840 Speaker 1: you can prey away your illness. Every epidemic, there's scoundrels 257 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 1: making money off it by selling bogus cures. Every single epidemic, 258 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 1: you have hoarding of goods, anything that somebody thinks will 259 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 1: protect them. They hoard the supplies um and suddenly you 260 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 1: have a mixture of organized crime and the response so 261 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 1: that you know the person trying to kill you just 262 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 1: might be a mobster who's ticked off because you discovered 263 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 1: his stockpile of syringes or masks. The current COVID nineteen 264 00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 1: pandemic is a glaring example of the chaos and economic 265 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:20,240 Speaker 1: cost these outbreaks cause. We've seen spurious treatments, run on 266 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 1: face masks and toilet paper, travel bands, and conspiracy theories 267 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 1: about the diseases origins. That is baffling as they are frustrating, 268 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:33,639 Speaker 1: But where do outbreaks come from, how do they start? 269 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 1: And why are they occurring more frequently? Almost two thirds 270 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 1: of human infectious diseases are caused by pathogens shared with 271 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:53,520 Speaker 1: wild or domestic animals. In recent decades, more and more 272 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 1: of these microbes have jumped this species barrier. In many instances, 273 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:01,639 Speaker 1: these have gone on to spread to nationally, some globally. 274 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 1: Most of these have been viruses jumping from wildlife to humans. 275 00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:12,679 Speaker 1: Take HIV, which crossed the species barrier from great apes, 276 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 1: possibly as early as the nine twenties. In more recent decades, 277 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 1: neber virus, which can cause acute respiratory infection and fatal 278 00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 1: and capelitas jumped from bats to pigs and then to 279 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:29,400 Speaker 1: people in the late nines. Then a few years later 280 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:34,360 Speaker 1: stars emerged, starting first in bats, moving to civets, a small, lean, 281 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 1: mostly nocturnal mammal, then jumped to humans in two thousand 282 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 1: and twelve. Mirce or Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome made the 283 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:46,919 Speaker 1: jump from camels to humans. We think the current coronavirus 284 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:51,199 Speaker 1: came from bats via some other intermediary host. But what 285 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 1: precipitates the cross species jump and what can be done 286 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 1: to prevent or mitigate it. I suppose the bottom line 287 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 1: is that man has just to another animal, and as 288 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 1: far as the virus is concerned, and so there is 289 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 1: nothing particularly special about viruses that infect humans are supposed 290 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:16,119 Speaker 1: to those that infect animals. This is Professor Trevor Drew. 291 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 1: He's the director of the Australian Animal Health Laboratory at Geelong, 292 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:24,560 Speaker 1: just outside of Melbourne. It's the Australian equivalent of the 293 00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 1: US Government's Animal Disease Research Center on Plum Island, located 294 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 1: off the coast of New York. The Australian Lab has 295 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:37,119 Speaker 1: one of the largest high bio containment facilities in the world. 296 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 1: It's been at the forefront of research on emerging viral 297 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 1: threats since the mid nine According to Trevor, changing environments 298 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:51,520 Speaker 1: are driving a big change in viruses. Certainly, something that 299 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:56,400 Speaker 1: we have seen time and again in the raising of animals, 300 00:19:56,440 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 1: domestic animals is that if you intensify production, in other words, 301 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:03,160 Speaker 1: if you put lots of animals together in a very 302 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:07,840 Speaker 1: close space, the viruses tend to get more pathogenic, so 303 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 1: they create more disease because they are able to multiply 304 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:16,199 Speaker 1: to a higher level, and it doesn't matter if they 305 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 1: kill their host, because the next host is right next door. 306 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,679 Speaker 1: And particularly where you get animals all of the same age, 307 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 1: all of the same genetics, that can actually act as 308 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:30,639 Speaker 1: an environmental driver towards higher pathogenicity. We see this in 309 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 1: animals time and again. From Trevor's perspective, the intensive way 310 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 1: livestock and seafood are being farmed is contributing to the 311 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:43,200 Speaker 1: proliferation of dangerous pathogens. We find that if we put 312 00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 1: large numbers of fish together, or cross staceans together, we 313 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:50,280 Speaker 1: find that diseases which are really quite minor and only 314 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:54,119 Speaker 1: seen occasionally in the wild suddenly become a big problem. 315 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,879 Speaker 1: And again this is this This reinforces that hypothesis that 316 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:00,880 Speaker 1: if you cram loads of animals to other you will 317 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 1: get increased pathogenicity. The same goes for humans. Crowded living 318 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:11,159 Speaker 1: spaces can create opportunities for viruses to evolve into a 319 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:18,200 Speaker 1: higher pathogenicity and increase the chances of spreading among human populations. Now, 320 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,880 Speaker 1: if you then take the fact that humans are increasingly 321 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:27,000 Speaker 1: encroaching into spaces where they previously haven't gone, it's inevitable 322 00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:31,919 Speaker 1: that they will more often encounter novel viruses in a 323 00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 1: wildlife reservoir that has an opportunity to jump into the 324 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 1: human If we take the case of a bowler, the 325 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 1: virus has had been around in the in Western and 326 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,879 Speaker 1: Central Africa for quite some time. It caused outbreaks and 327 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 1: then it seemed to attenuate itself. It it became less 328 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: virulent and disappeared because every outbreak before the big West 329 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 1: African heartbreak was in a rural environment. However, when the 330 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 1: virus emerged in Sierra Leone, it caused a big problem 331 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:09,080 Speaker 1: in cities. And this is again because the humans are 332 00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:14,919 Speaker 1: close together, there's an easy opportunity for the abolavirus to 333 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 1: jump from host to host. An additional challenge is how 334 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: interconnected the world has become global travelers in everyday reality, 335 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 1: a person can be exploring a cave in Africa one 336 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,639 Speaker 1: day and bring home a lethal disease the next. We 337 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 1: saw an example in two thousand and eight when a 338 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:35,920 Speaker 1: forty one year old woman died in the Netherlands from 339 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:40,440 Speaker 1: marburg hamorrhagic fever, a viral infection similar to a bowler. 340 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,919 Speaker 1: The Dutch woman had visited a bat infested cave in 341 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:47,600 Speaker 1: Uganda a couple of weeks earlier. Her case highlighted the 342 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:51,639 Speaker 1: role globalization is playing in the rapid spread of pathogens. 343 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,720 Speaker 1: As Trevor Drew mentioned, We've got an even more dramatic 344 00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 1: example of that six years later, when a toddler from 345 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:03,680 Speaker 1: a small village in Guinea was infected with ebola, probably 346 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 1: by a bat that was carrying the virus. Within months, 347 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,440 Speaker 1: the disease spread to Guinea's capital, Conakry, and then to 348 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 1: neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. The epidemic in West Africa 349 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 1: was unprecedented because it ripped through densely populated urban centers 350 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:23,399 Speaker 1: like wildfire. From two thousand and fourteen to two thousand 351 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,719 Speaker 1: and sixteen, a bowl of virus disease spread to seven 352 00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:31,959 Speaker 1: more countries, including Italy, Nigeria, Spain, the United Kingdom, and 353 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:36,480 Speaker 1: the United States. All up, almost twenty nine thousand people 354 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:41,480 Speaker 1: were infected and over eleven thousand died. It demonstrated yet 355 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 1: again the risk that international mobility and air travel posed 356 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 1: to infection control, especially the panic that sets in when 357 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 1: infected people cross international borders. Here's the world health organizations 358 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,960 Speaker 1: Mike Ryan Again, I can argue to you whether globalization 359 00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 1: is a good thing or a bad Let's accept it's 360 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:05,360 Speaker 1: a good thing. Let's accept that creating a global architecture, 361 00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:09,400 Speaker 1: global movement of people, global movement of goods and services 362 00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 1: has been a good thing. It's driven economic growth if 363 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,880 Speaker 1: you like that kind of thing, and don't all of that. 364 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:21,320 Speaker 1: But with that, we've added risk, huge risks into the 365 00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:25,640 Speaker 1: global system. Um uh. And we're not doing anything to mitigate. 366 00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,120 Speaker 1: So if we're going to accept the globalization is good 367 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:31,000 Speaker 1: and we need to accept, what is the risks that 368 00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 1: have come with that? And how are those risks mitigated? 369 00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:37,200 Speaker 1: How are they managed, reduced and mitigated? And preparedness reprodemics 370 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:38,880 Speaker 1: has to be seen as one of those. We've seen 371 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,360 Speaker 1: the other's climate stress, all of these things that are emerging, 372 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 1: um and and I think we have to put a 373 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,600 Speaker 1: price on that. The nature of how we're disrupting our 374 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 1: environment is constantly changing and worsening. Habitats are being altered 375 00:24:56,680 --> 00:25:01,200 Speaker 1: and often diminished, putting humans in farm animal enclosed contact 376 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:05,960 Speaker 1: with wildlife. Laurie Garrett says it's providing an advantage for microbes, 377 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,359 Speaker 1: resulting in diseases that really went an issue twenty or 378 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:13,480 Speaker 1: thirty years ago. You know, I always get asked, why 379 00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:17,680 Speaker 1: do we see all these uh hemorrhagic viruses and these 380 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:22,959 Speaker 1: uh you know, new coronaviruses, and so it's like people. 381 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:30,800 Speaker 1: The pollinators of the rainforests are bats, gentle nocturnal fruit bats, 382 00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:35,480 Speaker 1: and their niche in our global ecology is being destroyed. 383 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,720 Speaker 1: They are starving, they are flying in flocks in search 384 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:44,679 Speaker 1: of the fruit that they are particular species is adapted to, 385 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,200 Speaker 1: and when they can't find it, they're getting closer to 386 00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:54,240 Speaker 1: human orchards and human activities, even though very few bat 387 00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:57,240 Speaker 1: species in the world want to be anywhere near a 388 00:25:57,359 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 1: human being. They are very shy animals. You know. We 389 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:09,000 Speaker 1: have disrupted that ecological niche so completely that there's thousands 390 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:13,560 Speaker 1: of bat born diseases that one way or another we're 391 00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:17,359 Speaker 1: probably going to get exposed to over the next few decades. 392 00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:23,640 Speaker 1: It's not just people who are exposed. Race horses stabled 393 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 1: in Hendra, an outer suburb of Brisbane, Australia, began falling 394 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:32,359 Speaker 1: ill and dying rapidly. The disease spread to seven people, 395 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:37,240 Speaker 1: killing most of them. Scientists identified the cause and named 396 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:42,159 Speaker 1: it hendra virus. After much searching, they found hendrovirus is 397 00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:46,320 Speaker 1: natural source or reservoir. It was a type of large 398 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:50,399 Speaker 1: fruit bat known as a flying fox. Turns out he 399 00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 1: was an important finding. The discovery of hendra virus in 400 00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:58,520 Speaker 1: bats prompted scientists to study how these ancient flying mammals 401 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:04,240 Speaker 1: are capable of caring viruses without actually getting sick. But 402 00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:09,040 Speaker 1: what makes them such rich reservoirs of viral pathogens, How 403 00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:12,960 Speaker 1: do these viruses spill over to humans, and what can 404 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 1: we learn from them? Coming up next week, Bats, I'll 405 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,280 Speaker 1: look at how the discovery of hendra virus and flying 406 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:28,960 Speaker 1: foxes profoundly change scientific understanding of the origins of some 407 00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 1: of our most feared viruses. I'll explain how it led 408 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:36,640 Speaker 1: to greater awareness of the interaction microbes have with their hosts, 409 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:40,800 Speaker 1: knowledge that might help us better anticipate and respond to 410 00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:47,920 Speaker 1: current and future viral threats. That's it for this episode 411 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,960 Speaker 1: of Prognosis. Thanks so much for listening. We'll be back 412 00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:53,480 Speaker 1: with a new episode soon, but until then, you can 413 00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:55,400 Speaker 1: see what our health team is up to by going 414 00:27:55,440 --> 00:28:01,840 Speaker 1: to www dot bloomberg dot com, forward slash prognosis. Do 415 00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 1: you have a story about life during COVID nineteen, We 416 00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:06,919 Speaker 1: want to hear from you. We're on Twitter at j 417 00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:10,120 Speaker 1: W Gale or at Fay Cortez. If you're a fan 418 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,479 Speaker 1: of this episode, please take a moment to rate and 419 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 1: review us. It helps new listeners find the show. This 420 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:20,520 Speaker 1: episode was produced by Laura Coulson with special assistance from 421 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:24,760 Speaker 1: John Lawerman. Our story editor was Rick Shine. Special thanks 422 00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:28,480 Speaker 1: to Drew Armstrong Health Team leader and Francesco Levy, head 423 00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:29,760 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Podcasts,