WEBVTT - Merrill Kelly Helps D-backs Salvage Split vs. Padres; Pavin Smith DFA'd 0:00:09.119 --> 0:00:12.400 Hello, and welcome to another episode of Snake's Territory, part 0:00:12.440 --> 0:00:15.800 of the Foul Territory Network. My name is Jesse Friedman, 0:00:15.880 --> 0:00:18.919 alongside the one and only Jack Summers. As always, be 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:21.639 sure to do all the things like this video. Subscribe 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:24.280 to our channel, maybe leave us a five star review 0:00:24.640 --> 0:00:28.600 wherever you get your podcast. Jack, we just witnessed a 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:31.720 game that the Diamondbacks very much needed to win, and 0:00:31.760 --> 0:00:35.360 they were able to do just that. Merril Kelly really 0:00:35.360 --> 0:00:37.920 put the team on his back with seven innings of 0:00:38.000 --> 0:00:41.480 one run ball Diamondbacks offense able to do just enough 0:00:41.520 --> 0:00:42.560 behind him. 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:46.280 It feels great to see Meryl pitch that well again. 0:00:47.200 --> 0:00:50.280 I thoroughly admit that I had my doubts that we 0:00:50.320 --> 0:00:53.440 would get to see this kind of performance. You know, 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:56.320 not just a good pitching line, but how he looked 0:00:56.560 --> 0:01:00.920 doing it. It was We're back to a pleasure to 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:02.480 watch Merril Kelly pitch. 0:01:04.000 --> 0:01:07.360 It was, you know, the way this game started, It's 0:01:07.400 --> 0:01:10.640 still felt like, okay, you know, we'll see, let's see 0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:15.360 if Meryl Kelly is able to able to be successful 0:01:15.400 --> 0:01:17.639 and go on a nice run and put some innings together. 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:21.039 Certainly he was better his last time out against Milwaukee. 0:01:21.600 --> 0:01:24.479 Pretty clean first inning for Meryl Kelly won two three, 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:27.200 and then he comes out for the second and Manny 0:01:27.240 --> 0:01:30.160 Machado takes the first pitch and hits it very deep, 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:32.679 and then it's like, all right, well, here we are 0:01:32.720 --> 0:01:36.160 with Merrill Kelly. You know, certainly allowing home runs has 0:01:36.200 --> 0:01:39.080 been a trend for him this season. But as the 0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:42.759 game went on, Jack Merrill made some really big pitches, 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:46.280 got a couple of really important double plays, and it 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:49.680 felt like as the game went on, Merrill just seemed 0:01:49.680 --> 0:01:50.640 to get better and better. 0:01:51.680 --> 0:01:53.800 Yeah, and don't forget to pick off. It was fun 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:56.120 to see me getting back to picking guys off again. 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:58.280 I mean that was something that he was among the 0:01:58.360 --> 0:02:00.840 leaders in the league for a few years in a row. 0:02:01.440 --> 0:02:06.000 So you know, that's another weapon in his arsenal. Probably 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:08.519 isn't going to get a lot of ink, but picking 0:02:08.560 --> 0:02:10.320 off Tatisa was pretty big there. 0:02:10.480 --> 0:02:12.760 I mean Moreno gets the credit most of the credit 0:02:12.840 --> 0:02:13.360 for that one. 0:02:13.440 --> 0:02:17.800 Right, Oh, I'm sorry. Was that two two three not 0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:18.480 a one three? 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:20.240 I think it was a two three. I think it 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:22.560 was a two three. I mean, Merrill, I guess contributed, right, 0:02:22.600 --> 0:02:25.799 You're right, you're quick to play, but Gabby's the one 0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:29.080 who gunned out Tatis at first base, originally called safe 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:32.520 and then the Diamondbacks challenged, and it looked pretty pretty 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:34.640 cut and dry. Nice nice play all the way around. 0:02:35.280 --> 0:02:38.680 Bonehead. I saw the plate, but for whatever reason, I 0:02:38.760 --> 0:02:40.000 just looked at my sheet instead. 0:02:41.000 --> 0:02:43.839 That happens to the best of us. But yeah, as 0:02:43.840 --> 0:02:46.440 the game went along, Jacket just felt like Merrill got 0:02:46.480 --> 0:02:49.639 more and more comfortable. We saw him have a conversation 0:02:49.800 --> 0:02:52.560 with Tory Lavello and the dugout after the sixth inning. 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:56.520 He was right around I don't remember the exact pitch count. 0:02:56.520 --> 0:02:59.800 I think it was low mid eighties something like that 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:03.480 through six innings, and then he went out there. He 0:03:03.560 --> 0:03:07.160 won the argument with Tory Lavello was able to make 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:11.200 his case to go back out there, and rightfully so. 0:03:11.120 --> 0:03:14.440 So Merrill went back out there, tossed to really clean one, two, three, 0:03:14.600 --> 0:03:18.240 seventh inning, and only finished the game with ninety four pitches. 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:19.880 He was he was very efficient. 0:03:20.840 --> 0:03:23.480 Yeah, you know, you kind of wonder about those conversations. 0:03:23.520 --> 0:03:26.760 I was thinking about this while it was happening, like 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:29.960 is that motivating for a pitcher? Like, you know, what 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:32.359 is he saying? If anybody gets on you're out of there. 0:03:32.400 --> 0:03:34.400 I mean, like that that would seem to make a 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:37.120 guy pitch tight. But that's the last thing that Meryl did. 0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:40.080 He came out and dominated at seventh inning and just 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:42.800 you know, got through it really quickly. So you know, 0:03:42.840 --> 0:03:44.040 I'd love to be a fly on the wall in 0:03:44.080 --> 0:03:47.080 some of those conversations. I'm sure that they'll talk about 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:50.280 it in a few moments about what was said, but 0:03:50.520 --> 0:03:54.680 you know, between them, you know where they're coming from. Right, 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:56.640 Merril's like, get out of my way, I want to pitch, 0:03:56.680 --> 0:03:59.200 and Toy's like, okay, I'll let you go back out there. 0:03:59.240 --> 0:04:03.000 But I'm sure it went along those lines. 0:04:04.480 --> 0:04:07.120 This outing, to me, had a different feel than his 0:04:07.200 --> 0:04:10.880 game against Milwaukee. I know, the final line against Milwaukee 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:13.520 was decent. Five innings of two runs. Certainly you would 0:04:13.520 --> 0:04:16.359 take that, but there was kind of a lot of 0:04:16.360 --> 0:04:20.280 hard contact in that game. I think Merrill allowed eight 0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:23.120 or nine base runners in that one, something like that, 0:04:23.640 --> 0:04:27.200 and it just felt like he wasn't really in control 0:04:27.279 --> 0:04:29.640 of the game as much as he was just doing 0:04:29.680 --> 0:04:31.880 like damage control when he needed to, and he was 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:36.000 minimizing situations to his credit, finding ways to get out 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:38.440 of jams. That he hasn't been able to get out 0:04:38.440 --> 0:04:42.400 of this season. But this game felt more like vintage 0:04:42.400 --> 0:04:45.440 Meryl Kelly. I mean, this was a as the outing 0:04:45.480 --> 0:04:47.719 went on, right, it didn't always look this way, but 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:50.280 as the outing went on, it felt more and more 0:04:50.400 --> 0:04:53.320 like Merrill was in control of this game. I guess 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:56.480 if I was nitpicking Jack, I would reference the thing 0:04:56.520 --> 0:04:59.200 I've referenced a lot with Merrill Kelly this season, which 0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:02.200 is that he just isn't throwing as many pitches in 0:05:02.279 --> 0:05:04.720 the strike zone as you would like to see. And 0:05:04.960 --> 0:05:07.920 oddly enough, that was very much the case in this game. 0:05:07.960 --> 0:05:10.640 His zone rate and this one was only thirty nine percent, 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:14.720 which is actually well below his season average, very far 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:18.120 below the league average. Merrill really did not throw very 0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:20.599 many pitches in the zone at all in this game, 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:24.440 but it absolutely worked for him. I mean, he got 0:05:24.560 --> 0:05:27.599 a decent amount of chase outside the zone. He generated 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:31.159 a lot of soft contact. This had a very different 0:05:31.160 --> 0:05:34.280 feel from the Milwaukee outing. Even though, yeah, we would 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:37.240 maybe like to see Meryll land a few more pitches 0:05:37.279 --> 0:05:38.320 for strikes. 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:41.479 Right well, you know, I mean I'd probably go back 0:05:41.480 --> 0:05:43.719 and look up and see how many were just you know, 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:46.560 in that shadow zone or just on the outside part 0:05:46.600 --> 0:05:49.440 of the strike zone on the edges. I'd be interested 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:51.520 to look at that, because it sure felt like he 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:53.680 was around the zone most of the time, or when 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:56.839 he was missing, it seemed like it had purpose, you know, 0:05:56.880 --> 0:05:59.800 whether it was a pitch running in on a right 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:02.160 hand into batter just kind of get his hands up 0:06:02.160 --> 0:06:05.080 and you know, sliding back a little bit, you know, 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:07.680 and then makes it more susceptible to the changeup. So 0:06:08.160 --> 0:06:11.240 I feel pretty good about the way he was locating 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:13.880 the ball today, despite the fact that the zone percentage 0:06:14.040 --> 0:06:19.160 wasn't great, you know, but yeah, you know, who am 0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:22.000 I to counter you when it comes to nippicking. 0:06:23.839 --> 0:06:25.520 Yeah, I don't know if that's something I want to 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:29.440 be known for per se, but yeah, this was I 0:06:29.480 --> 0:06:32.200 definitely think that's a valid point on your part. Looking 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:35.280 at at Merrill's pitch chart, just pulling it up on 0:06:35.640 --> 0:06:40.080 Savant on my computer. Here, pretty much every pitch is competitive, 0:06:40.400 --> 0:06:43.120 and that was something we talked about after the Milwaukee outing, 0:06:43.279 --> 0:06:46.480 was he had still quite a few misfires in that game, 0:06:46.520 --> 0:06:49.680 where especially the cutter, it felt like was just kind 0:06:49.680 --> 0:06:52.880 of in no man's land time after time. But a 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:55.760 different story in this game. He was out of the zone, 0:06:55.839 --> 0:06:57.920 maybe a little more than you'd like, but it was very, 0:06:58.040 --> 0:07:00.920 very effective and he does there's a lot of credit 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:03.680 for that. On the offensive side of things, Jack, not 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:07.040 a whole lot to speak of for the Diamondbacks, and 0:07:07.160 --> 0:07:10.320 this one you'd like to see more than three runs, 0:07:10.440 --> 0:07:13.760 especially with someone like Griffin canning on the mound. Well, 0:07:13.800 --> 0:07:15.800 we'll talk a little more about what's going on with 0:07:15.840 --> 0:07:19.520 the offense later, but to get into the positives from 0:07:19.600 --> 0:07:23.080 this one, the d Backs scratched across a run in 0:07:23.160 --> 0:07:26.960 the fourth inning, Corbyn Carrel unfortunately thrown out at second 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:30.880 trying to stretch a single into a double. He really 0:07:30.920 --> 0:07:33.480 beat the tag, but then he just leaked off the 0:07:33.520 --> 0:07:35.360 base for a split second and that was that. But 0:07:35.400 --> 0:07:37.920 the d Backs still score a run in the inning 0:07:37.960 --> 0:07:41.000 there on a wild pitch. Max Kepler and Lord of 0:07:41.000 --> 0:07:44.320 s Gariel both hitting singles to contribute to that. And 0:07:44.360 --> 0:07:47.080 then in the top of the fifth Heraldo Perdomo drove 0:07:47.120 --> 0:07:50.360 in Tommy Troy from second base clutch two out single 0:07:50.960 --> 0:07:53.280 RBI single there gave the Diamondbacks a two to one 0:07:53.360 --> 0:07:56.040 lead at the time, and then the other run for 0:07:56.160 --> 0:08:00.000 Arizona and this one Nolan Arnato against Yuki Matt Suey 0:08:00.880 --> 0:08:05.640 somehow hitting a splitter that was several inches below the zone. 0:08:06.040 --> 0:08:08.680 You could tell looking at Matt Suwey's face that he 0:08:08.840 --> 0:08:11.160 was sort of like, how on earth did you do that? 0:08:12.840 --> 0:08:17.000 Pretty impressive swing from Nolan Arnado, Jack, who is just 0:08:17.040 --> 0:08:21.960 a fascinating hitter. It feels like, you know, sometimes he 0:08:22.080 --> 0:08:24.560 feels like he can't do anything with a pitch that's 0:08:24.640 --> 0:08:27.560 right down the middle, and yet he every once in 0:08:27.640 --> 0:08:30.000 a while will just run into a splitter that's six 0:08:30.040 --> 0:08:32.280 inches below the zone and hit that out of the yard. 0:08:33.440 --> 0:08:36.880 Yeah. I mean, you know, you just don't expect that 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:38.840 pitch to be the one that hit. I mean, splitters 0:08:38.840 --> 0:08:42.280 have been driving this team crazy all year long, so 0:08:42.320 --> 0:08:45.160 that was the last thing you would expect, especially Nolan 0:08:45.200 --> 0:08:46.520 to be able to go down and get that one. 0:08:46.840 --> 0:08:49.200 But he did. You know he's do is he have 0:08:49.240 --> 0:08:52.000 the most home runs in Petco Park amongst visiting players 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:54.080 are close to it. I think they said he had 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:57.080 over thirty homers and at go so it must be 0:08:57.200 --> 0:09:00.520 just something about hitting there. He likes it and they 0:09:00.559 --> 0:09:03.520 need him to, you know, at least be league average. 0:09:03.520 --> 0:09:06.120 He's kind of been doing better over the last week 0:09:06.200 --> 0:09:09.240 or so, but you know, his year to date numbers 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:12.440 are still a little below average, I think, so you know, 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:15.360 the home run tonight probably helped get him up closer 0:09:15.400 --> 0:09:17.840 to that. With his steady defense, if they can get 0:09:17.880 --> 0:09:20.319 that all year long, Tory's going to have to get 0:09:20.360 --> 0:09:23.520 him his days off a little bit more frequently than 0:09:23.520 --> 0:09:26.320 he had been. So you know, it's just great to 0:09:26.320 --> 0:09:29.160 see him still be able to contribute and get going 0:09:29.240 --> 0:09:29.559 like that. 0:09:30.760 --> 0:09:34.120 Dbac's bullpen was solid behind Meryl Kelly in this one. 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:38.400 Kevin Ginkle pitched a one two three eighth inning and 0:09:38.440 --> 0:09:41.160 then Paul Sewald followed that up with a one two 0:09:41.240 --> 0:09:44.160 three ninth inning couple of strikeouts. Actually a really good 0:09:44.160 --> 0:09:47.840 game for Paul Sewalt. He looked particularly sharp in this one. 0:09:47.960 --> 0:09:51.680 So not a great series overall for the bullpen jack Obviously, 0:09:51.760 --> 0:09:54.800 yesterday's game was a bit of a rough one for them, 0:09:55.200 --> 0:09:59.080 but again, it feels like when it has mattered in 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:01.959 the situation where you really need your bullpen to step 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:05.640 up and protect a slim lead, this bullpen has very 0:10:05.720 --> 0:10:07.920 consistently done that in twenty twenty six. 0:10:08.640 --> 0:10:10.560 Yeah, I mean, Paul was dominant I mean, you know, 0:10:11.000 --> 0:10:12.599 he didn't just have a nice outing. I mean it 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:16.400 was ten pitches, nine strikes. He struck out Tattoos and 0:10:16.440 --> 0:10:18.720 bok Arts, two guys that have both taken him deep 0:10:19.080 --> 0:10:22.280 in their careers, you know, and it was just like, 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:25.760 you know, good morning, good afternoon, good night. Yeah, it doesn't, 0:10:25.880 --> 0:10:28.600 you know, it doesn't. It was almost a nine pitch inning. 0:10:29.440 --> 0:10:31.320 So it doesn't really get much more dominant than that. 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:35.240 It's just amazing to watch Paul sometimes pitch that dominantly 0:10:35.760 --> 0:10:38.280 considering you know, some of the other factors that we 0:10:38.360 --> 0:10:40.920 know well about his home run proneness and all of that. 0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:44.439 But you know twenty one for twenty two, who had 0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:45.480 that on their bingo card. 0:10:46.960 --> 0:10:50.520 Not mean, yeah, I would be lying if I if 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:53.120 I said I was expecting that from Paul Seawall. It 0:10:53.160 --> 0:10:55.760 has been despite the fact that the ra is still 0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:58.960 up there. I know he's been less sharp lately, but again, 0:10:59.040 --> 0:11:02.560 he's generally stepped up when the Diamondbacks have needed him. 0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:02.719 Too. 0:11:02.760 --> 0:11:06.480 Hard to argue with twenty one for twenty two, And yeah, 0:11:06.559 --> 0:11:09.880 I mean he's really excelled in that role despite what 0:11:10.080 --> 0:11:13.200 a lot of people expected from him going into the season. 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:16.280 We have more to get to on this series in 0:11:16.360 --> 0:11:19.360 San Diego. We're going to take a step back and 0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:21.360 we're not going to dive too much into what happened 0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:23.760 the last couple of days, but we will talk about 0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:26.520 some big picture takeaways. Look ahead to the trade deadline, 0:11:26.600 --> 0:11:29.480 check in on the standings, talk a little more about 0:11:29.520 --> 0:11:31.760 what's going on with the offense. So a whole lot 0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:34.360 more ahead. Don't go away, we'll be back right after 0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:36.160 this on Snake stairzor. 0:11:37.600 --> 0:11:37.800 Hey. 0:11:37.840 --> 0:11:40.600 For the families out there looking for a different path 0:11:40.640 --> 0:11:43.160 to help your child succeed at home, look into K 0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:47.720 twelve Powered Schools. K twelve offers tuition free, accredited online 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:50.960 public education for students in K through twelve on a 0:11:51.000 --> 0:11:53.719 setting that works for your family. Todd Father, you've done 0:11:53.760 --> 0:11:55.280 the homeschooling thing in the past. 0:11:55.320 --> 0:11:56.040 I know you liked it. 0:11:56.840 --> 0:11:58.520 Yeah, I did. I liked it a lot. All my 0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:01.840 kids have done it before. 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K twelve dot com slash foul. 0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:41.679 We are back here on Snake's territory. Shout out to 0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:44.000 all of you who are here live with us in 0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:46.479 the chat. We see all your comments. We really appreciate 0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:50.280 you being here with us. If you're joining us after 0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:53.720 the fact or you're listening, we also really appreciate you 0:12:53.760 --> 0:12:55.960 as well. Be sure to drop alike on this video 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:59.440 on YouTube, subscribe to our channel if you have not already, 0:12:59.480 --> 0:13:02.079 and if you're join us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify 0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:05.360 one of those audio only platforms. It also really helps 0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:09.240 us out if you would leave us a five star review. Well, Jack, 0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:12.800 you mentioned earlier how the Diamondbacks got their runs in 0:13:12.880 --> 0:13:17.960 this game. It was not exactly a firework display for 0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:20.680 that unit in this one, just scoring three runs in 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:23.560 this game, and by and large in the series, the 0:13:23.559 --> 0:13:28.719 Diamondbacks offense did not do particularly well against what has 0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:32.360 been a weaker starting pitching group for San Diego this season. 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:35.199 I guess the vibes were high on Monday, Jack, when 0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:38.200 they came out and they scored eight runs. You felt 0:13:38.280 --> 0:13:41.160 like maybe this was going to be a big swing 0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:43.559 in the other direction for that group. But then the 0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:46.640 d Backs came back and just mustered one run on 0:13:47.320 --> 0:13:51.240 Tuesday and then three runs in the game yesterday, which 0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:55.800 did not particularly matter much at that point, and yeah, 0:13:56.160 --> 0:13:58.440 it's been a rough go for that group for quite 0:13:58.440 --> 0:13:59.040 a while now. 0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:05.000 You know, Unfortunately, almost every player except for a few, 0:14:05.679 --> 0:14:09.640 have been underperforming their projections this year what was expected 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:15.440 of them, some by very large margins. Some are players 0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:18.920 that are on the firing line as far as you know, 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:24.920 severe underperformance to the point of DFA DFA. Others are 0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:27.320 you know, some of the stars on this team have 0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:31.640 not done what is expected of them, and so it's 0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:35.640 all kind of combined to an offense that's severely underwhelmed 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:40.000 and underperformed. You know, I wrote an article the other 0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:44.240 day and I made a case for you can almost 0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:47.240 calculate that the team is about fifty runs shy of 0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:51.160 where they should be based on their projections and playing 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:53.640 time that they've gotten. You know, the one thing that 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:56.440 the players themselves can't really control is the playing time 0:14:56.480 --> 0:14:59.640 they get. Obviously, you play better, you get more playing time. 0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:02.160 But whether it's injury, who got called up, who got 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:05.520 sent down, and how Tory decides to put the lineup in, 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:08.640 they don't really control that. But you know, you still 0:15:08.680 --> 0:15:11.520 can look at things based on how much playing time 0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:15.760 they've got gotten and how much they've produced versus how 0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:17.880 much they were expected to produce. So that's what I 0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:20.520 was trying to do in my article the other day, 0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:23.680 and here's the chart on it. So the metric that 0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:28.840 I used was runs created. The runs created metric is 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:33.480 simply looking at the inputs of you know, hits, walks, 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:37.840 home runs, strikeouts, et cetera, et cetera, all their bat 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:41.120 at all events and all their walks and strikeouts and 0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:45.520 looking at how many runs those typically create. So that's 0:15:45.520 --> 0:15:48.720 what runs created is because it takes sequencing out of 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:51.920 the picture. And when you look at this, the team 0:15:52.120 --> 0:15:56.360 has created has runs created three hundred and sixty eight 0:15:57.120 --> 0:16:02.800 heading into yesterday's game is a two games old data 0:16:03.760 --> 0:16:06.320 and there were fifty two runs under what they were 0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:09.520 projected to do. So I'm showing here the plate appearances, 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:14.960 the runs created, and the over or under projection. So, 0:16:15.040 --> 0:16:20.720 for example, Gabra Marino has thirty eight runs created in 0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:25.600 two hundred and fifty three plate appearances. He was projected 0:16:25.720 --> 0:16:29.560 in this many per plate appearance to have about thirty 0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:33.960 almost thirty five, so he's three point two over. If 0:16:34.000 --> 0:16:36.280 you flip all the way to the bottom of the table, 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:40.800 Lord Escuriel only has thirteen runs created in one hundred 0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:43.480 and sixty eight plate appearances, where he should have had 0:16:43.480 --> 0:16:47.280 about twenty one or twenty two based on his preseason projection, 0:16:47.800 --> 0:16:51.520 and so he's minus eight point six. So that's the 0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:54.640 top and the bottom of this chart. And this was 0:16:54.680 --> 0:16:59.280 a way for me to calculate the impact of each 0:16:59.400 --> 0:17:04.119 player on the team. And it's really fairly evident obviously 0:17:04.240 --> 0:17:07.000 that looking at ten other metrics, you don't need this 0:17:07.119 --> 0:17:10.880 to tell you that Lordis and Peven have been extremely 0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:14.840 detrimental to the offense, as was Adrian del Castillo before 0:17:14.920 --> 0:17:17.840 being sent out. I mean they're at minus seven point 0:17:17.920 --> 0:17:22.760 four minus seven point six and minus eight point six. Now, 0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:26.959 surprisingly you see Katel Marte and Heraldo Padomo just above 0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:30.000 them at minus five to five and minus six six. 0:17:30.520 --> 0:17:33.440 Obviously they're good players and they're still well above average, 0:17:33.480 --> 0:17:36.439 but there was supposed to be even better than this, 0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:39.679 and so they're each missing about five or six runs. 0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:42.800 And you know, if you look at the bottom of 0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:47.640 the table, I mean del Castillo, Smith and Guriel, they 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:50.720 account for forty five percent of the negative fifty two 0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:54.600 runs in just twelve percent of the played appearances. So 0:17:54.680 --> 0:17:58.040 this is just another way to quantify how badly they've 0:17:58.080 --> 0:18:01.160 impacted the team. But also more to the point, if 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:04.680 you look at the top, the positive numbers are there 0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:08.000 for Marino Lawler, who's only got forty four played appearances, 0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:12.360 Jose Fernandez. However, Jose didn't have a very high projection 0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:15.800 to begin with, and then as same for Vargas. So 0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:19.639 you know, at this point you don't really have enough 0:18:20.119 --> 0:18:26.720 positive above expected production above projected production from the top 0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:31.520 of the table, and almost everybody's underperforming. So that's the 0:18:31.520 --> 0:18:34.160 bottom line. I mean, it's just it's a lineup wide thing. 0:18:34.240 --> 0:18:36.760 But there's three or four guys that really hurt the 0:18:36.800 --> 0:18:37.520 s team. The most. 0:18:38.800 --> 0:18:41.000 I know, you mentioned that there are some of the 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:43.680 better hitters that show up in the negative here, right, 0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:47.000 Likekzel was projected to do more, Heraldo Perdomo was projected 0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:49.600 to do more. But what really stood out to me 0:18:49.680 --> 0:18:53.159 looking at that was like, oh my gosh, like every 0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:57.480 single non star level hitter shows up not only in 0:18:57.520 --> 0:19:00.320 the red, but like deep in the red. Consider how 0:19:00.320 --> 0:19:03.280 many played appearances they had, right, I mean, there's just 0:19:03.440 --> 0:19:09.280 a massive difference between lordus Guriel Junior having an OPS 0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:12.000 in the in the mid five hundreds versus having an 0:19:12.000 --> 0:19:15.320 OPS in the low mid seven hundreds. Like the difference 0:19:15.359 --> 0:19:18.720 there is as big as the difference between lordis having 0:19:18.760 --> 0:19:21.240 an OPS and the seven hundreds and having an OPS 0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:23.640 and then nine hundreds. I mean, that's the same kind 0:19:23.680 --> 0:19:26.439 of gap that you're talking about there, and that's happening 0:19:26.520 --> 0:19:29.040 with a lot of different hitters on this team where 0:19:29.080 --> 0:19:32.199 you were expecting to get at least like a competent, 0:19:32.880 --> 0:19:37.399 roughly league average sort of production and instead you're getting 0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:40.560 well below that. And so yeah, I mean, would you 0:19:40.640 --> 0:19:42.960 like to see Catel's numbers continue to go up a 0:19:43.000 --> 0:19:46.840 little bit? Heraldo had a nice game today, Maybe he's 0:19:46.880 --> 0:19:49.400 able to get on a bit of a continued run. 0:19:49.800 --> 0:19:52.320 He's had stretches here and there, but hasn't been able 0:19:52.359 --> 0:19:53.920 to maintain it for a long period of time. You 0:19:53.960 --> 0:19:57.040 would like to see those things happen, but you just 0:19:57.160 --> 0:19:59.800 need like a level of competence from the bottom of 0:19:59.840 --> 0:20:02.480 the lineup. And it feels jack like the Dbacks have 0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:04.600 been chasing that all season long. 0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:08.000 Yeah, I mean, you know, at a certain point you 0:20:08.160 --> 0:20:10.080 have to say, like, I'm ready to throw in the 0:20:10.119 --> 0:20:12.320 towel on the projections, right, like, you know, the rest 0:20:12.320 --> 0:20:15.520 of season projections still, I mean, they've all taken a 0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:18.159 hit almost you know, most of them have taken a 0:20:18.240 --> 0:20:20.720 hit as far as what the rest of season numbers 0:20:20.760 --> 0:20:22.680 look like compared to their preseason numbers. 0:20:23.200 --> 0:20:25.320 I'm putting the paid Smith numbers on the screen. 0:20:25.359 --> 0:20:27.919 Here we go. Yeah, and then of course you know 0:20:28.040 --> 0:20:32.119 the obligatory now we've gone. I've showed this table before. 0:20:32.200 --> 0:20:35.639 This is just an update. Back in middle June. On 0:20:35.760 --> 0:20:39.960 June sixteenth, I published an article and we posted this 0:20:39.960 --> 0:20:42.119 this table and you've probably seen it on Twitter if 0:20:42.119 --> 0:20:44.719 you follow me there, and this just shows you know, 0:20:44.800 --> 0:20:47.840 what Peven Smith did the first part of his career 0:20:48.040 --> 0:20:51.680 through September of twenty four, over eleven hundred and almost 0:20:51.680 --> 0:20:54.440 twelve hundred played appearances, he was a little bit below 0:20:54.480 --> 0:20:57.760 average with a ninety two WRC plus, so he's about 0:20:57.800 --> 0:21:00.920 eight percent below average hitter for the first twelve hundred 0:21:00.920 --> 0:21:03.600 played appearances of his career. I see a lot of 0:21:03.600 --> 0:21:07.520 people quoting his war totals. I kind of ignore the 0:21:07.720 --> 0:21:11.919 Baseball Reference war total because Smith played over at almost 0:21:11.920 --> 0:21:13.800 fifteen hundred innings in the outfield. 0:21:15.280 --> 0:21:18.040 Sorry, sorry, Jack, I'm gonna I'm gonna interrupt you real 0:21:18.119 --> 0:21:21.200 quick because I saw someone put this in the chat 0:21:21.240 --> 0:21:24.439