1 00:00:01,880 --> 00:00:03,000 Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you? 2 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:07,320 Speaker 2: Welcome into week number one of the NFL FITZI Peralt. 3 00:00:07,440 --> 00:00:11,480 Speaker 2: We're gonna be here with you guys all season. This 4 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 2: is going to be fun as we get into all 5 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 2: the picks, plays, early looks, survivor pools. 6 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 1: If you guys are in them. 7 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:21,920 Speaker 2: Well, we're gonna give you some options here for us 8 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:22,600 Speaker 2: to talk. 9 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: Pat, Great to see you. How are you. It's football 10 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 1: once again? 11 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 3: Doing great, Matt. Great to be on with you again. 12 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 3: And I've been getting ready for fantasy football for a 13 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 3: long time. I feel like I've bet in the weeds 14 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:35,239 Speaker 3: for that for a long time. I forgot how I'm 15 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 3: much I missed preparing for these shows and like studying, 16 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:42,200 Speaker 3: like figuring out what I wanted to bet every week. 17 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 3: You know, I bet some other sports during the offseason, 18 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 3: but like it's just not the same, you know, betting 19 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 3: basketball or what have you. It's just not as enjoyable. 20 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:53,959 Speaker 3: And I love digging into the weeds and doing this, 21 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 3: and that's what we're going to talk about today. I've 22 00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:00,080 Speaker 3: I think this is my fourth show I'm recording today, 23 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 3: and this is the one I was most excited about. 24 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:05,399 Speaker 2: Well, it's fun because we have. We're doing some new 25 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:07,400 Speaker 2: stuff here at Betting Pros. Obviously, if you guys haven't 26 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 2: gone and downloaded the new app or updated the app, 27 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:11,560 Speaker 2: you should do so, because there's some really cool features 28 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 2: that drop this week with the Betting Pros app. But 29 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 2: I talked about it on The Daily Juice a little bit. 30 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 2: The fact that you know, we're trying some new things 31 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 2: and trying to test out. 32 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 1: Some new things. 33 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 2: So we were doing Thursday live streams heading into Thursday, 34 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 2: and we kind of figured, well, look at the whole 35 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:26,959 Speaker 2: week people are talking about these games. We don't have 36 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 2: to wait till Thursday to get into Thursday night. We 37 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 2: can start talking about it on Tuesday morning, and you 38 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:34,960 Speaker 2: know how this come out Wednesday and have a conversation 39 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 2: about what the line might be for Sunday, for Sunday 40 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 2: or Monday, even for Monday Night football. So this is 41 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 2: going to be fun every week to kind of go 42 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 2: deeper into the lines and look at what will happen. 43 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 2: And then Sunday when we do the NFL live stream 44 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 2: live heading into kickoff, we can reference back to this 45 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 2: video as to what we thought might happen. So really 46 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 2: going to be a fun football year. I can't wait 47 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 2: to see it on Thursday when the Eagles drop the banner, 48 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 2: and then we'll see what happens overseas with the Chiefs 49 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 2: game against the Chargers and whatnot. But let me ask 50 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 2: you a little bit about your preseason work for betting, 51 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 2: because it's different than fantasy obviously, right we're talking about 52 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:14,200 Speaker 2: usage and we're talking about what will happen for an 53 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 2: individual player. How much does that help you when it 54 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:20,799 Speaker 2: comes to handicapping and preparing for a season long talking 55 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 2: about a prop bet or a prop market for a 56 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 2: player or team come the whole year versus individually. 57 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think the fantasy stuff helps with 58 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 3: player prop research for the team wins in totals like 59 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:37,240 Speaker 3: that some of the stuff we've been thinking about and 60 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:40,080 Speaker 3: working on and with the numbers we've dug into, like 61 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 3: that matters for some of this side and total stuff. 62 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:46,959 Speaker 3: But there's also a lot more to consider. The defenses, 63 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 3: the offensive line play, the coaching, the personnel moves, the 64 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 3: coaching moves, like all that factors in the matchups and 65 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 3: the trends, like what happens when two divisional rivals go 66 00:02:58,200 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 3: at it and how has that series gone in the 67 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 3: last couple of years, So there are definitely more layers 68 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 3: that we have to get into, and like the fantasy 69 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:07,920 Speaker 3: research maybe helps you get a foothold, but there is 70 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 3: a lot more you need to look at. 71 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 2: Was there a major storyline for you? Like for me, 72 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 2: I'm a Patriot fan, so obviously the Patriots getting Mike 73 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 2: Vrabel and getting what looks like a competent coach in 74 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 2: place after what happened with Gerrod Mayo where it was 75 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 2: just a mess and things did not look like it 76 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 2: was going in the right direction. The Patriots cut bait 77 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:33,239 Speaker 2: quickly and added a competent coach. Was there a storyline 78 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 2: for you that made headlines that was bigger than another 79 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 2: one that may help you either bet or fade a team. 80 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 3: The Micaeh Parsons trade was kind of a big one here, 81 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 3: kinda And yeah, I mean like definitely gives the Packers 82 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 3: a boost. I mean, we saw them go from I 83 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 3: think twenty two to one to win the Super Bowl 84 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 3: to thirteen to one and become the favorite to win 85 00:03:56,040 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 3: the NFC North overnight with that deal. And you know, Dallas, 86 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 3: I mean I haven't looked at what their win total. 87 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 3: That's the one thing I've neglected to look at what 88 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 3: their team win total is now, but I would imagine 89 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 3: it's kind of crashed from where it was. And I 90 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 3: didn't have great feelings about the Cowboys anyway going into 91 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 3: this season, but man, we saw that. I'm actually kind 92 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 3: of surprised the line didn't move more than two points 93 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:24,600 Speaker 3: after this. But I was lucky enough to get Philly 94 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 3: at minus six and a half and now it's at 95 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 3: minus eight and a half. So it's just you wonder, 96 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 3: I mean, like giving away a key player like that, 97 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 3: if that just crashes morale on that team, and you know, 98 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 3: Dallas kind of becomes a punching bag this year. 99 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:42,479 Speaker 2: It's going to be wild to watch because I have 100 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 2: made the analogy as a Red Sox fan that when 101 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:48,920 Speaker 2: Raphael Devers was traded, that the Red Sox decided to 102 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:52,280 Speaker 2: remove a cancer and send a player away that was 103 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,479 Speaker 2: going to be a major distraction, and the Red Sox 104 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 2: took off after they traded away Raphael Devers. It's different 105 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:01,159 Speaker 2: in football, obviously, in my Parsons is a different player. 106 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 2: He's a better player than Rafael Devers from a defensive 107 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 2: perspective and the impact he makes on the game. Just 108 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 2: for example, The Cowboys are now sixty to one to 109 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:13,760 Speaker 2: win the Super Bowl at Fandel, so they are very far. 110 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,840 Speaker 2: They're seven to one to win the Division. I still 111 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 2: like them to win the division. Everyone thinks I'm crazy 112 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 2: about that call. I still like the Cowboys to win 113 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 2: the Division. I think the Egos are going to have 114 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 2: a rough season when it comes to injuries. They had 115 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:30,480 Speaker 2: everything go right last year, and historically speaking, when a 116 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 2: team avoids the injury bug like they did last year 117 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 2: and a running back like Saquon Barkley and a running 118 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:39,119 Speaker 2: quarterback like Jalen Hurts stays away from the injury bug, 119 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:41,839 Speaker 2: I think the injury bug might bite them. I can't 120 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 2: back the Commanders for anything because their defense just is 121 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 2: not something I want to get involved with. And I 122 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:50,840 Speaker 2: think the Jayden Daniels sophomore slump might be real, Like 123 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 2: that could happen when the teams now have a lot 124 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 2: of tape on him to watch and prepare for that 125 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 2: offense for the Commanders. I don't love the Terry McLaurin deal. 126 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 2: I think he's an aging wide receiver, so we'll see 127 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 2: what he's able to put up with from a stat standpoint. 128 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 2: So I still like the Cowboys, not to win, not 129 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 2: to win the Super Bowl, but I do think they 130 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 2: could win the division. And yes, everyone's running away from 131 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 2: the Cowboys. That's kind of a team why. I'm like, 132 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,040 Speaker 2: maybe it's a galvanizing factor, you know, maybe it causes 133 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 2: the team to circle the wagons. 134 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:21,600 Speaker 1: I don't like Jerry Jones, but. 135 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 2: Like, is it possible that Dak Prescott and company that 136 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:26,840 Speaker 2: they just outscore everybody? 137 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean they could do that. I don't know 138 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 3: if their line is as good as it was a 139 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 3: few years ago, but they do have a lot of 140 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 3: well their their passing game is going to be chrisp 141 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:42,039 Speaker 3: with Dak and Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens and Jake Ferguson. Yeah, 142 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 3: and maybe like they could do an ensemble cast job 143 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 3: with the pass rush with you know, Sam Williams and 144 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:53,840 Speaker 3: Azeraku and like they've they've got a volume of pass rushers. 145 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 3: So maybe they can kind of pull everything together and 146 00:06:58,000 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 3: circle the wagons. 147 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:04,599 Speaker 2: I mean, Cowboys fans obviously are praying that that happens. 148 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 1: Is that going to happen? 149 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:08,799 Speaker 2: I don't know, but their schedule is a third place schedule, 150 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 2: and I think that that's one big benefit. And look, 151 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 2: Matt Eberflus could not be a head coach, but we 152 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 2: know the guy can coach defense. I mean, he's a 153 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 2: good defensive coordinator, So if that's his role, like Josh 154 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 2: mcdam's with the Patriots, he's a great offensive coordinator. 155 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 1: He's a horrible head coach. 156 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 2: If eber Flues can get takeaways, which is what his 157 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 2: defenses tend to specialize in. That can change football games, 158 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 2: That can flip seasons if you're leading, you know, if 159 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 2: you're doing the little things to create turnovers. So I'm 160 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 2: not nearly as far out on the Cowboys as everybody 161 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 2: else is. 162 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 1: And even though I do know that people love to. 163 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 2: Hate on Dallas and I've been called all of a 164 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 2: sudden a Cowboys lover, and I'm not like, I'm a 165 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 2: Patriot fan, so like I like you, just like Jerry Jones, 166 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 2: you're a Cowboys I'm actually not like I don't like 167 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 2: the Cowboys, I don't like the Lakers, I don't like 168 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,120 Speaker 2: the Yankees, like I don't like any of those teams. 169 00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 2: I just see value in a seven to one ticket 170 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 2: now on the Cowboys to win the division, given that 171 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 2: nobody has gone back to back in the NFC East 172 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 2: since two thousand and three, two thousand and four when 173 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 2: the Eagles did it. So it's it's been a minute. 174 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 2: It's been twenty years over since someone's gone back to back. 175 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 2: But we can talk about the Eagles obviously and get 176 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 2: into what's happening here with the start of the season 177 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 2: Dallas and Philadelphia. 178 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 1: This number is nine at circa, it's nine. 179 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:32,280 Speaker 2: Pat What do we I mean, we're talking blowout here 180 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 2: on Banner Night where it's a walk in the park 181 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 2: for the Eagles. 182 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:38,960 Speaker 3: Man, you know, I mean I felt pretty good about 183 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:41,400 Speaker 3: it at six and a half, Matt, yes, at nine. 184 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 3: At nine, I'm not so sure. I mean, that's just 185 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 3: that's a lot of lumber to play, even for a 186 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 3: really good team that has as few weaknesses as the 187 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 3: Eagles too. You know, nine points against a non Patsy 188 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 3: opponent that's a little too tall for me. 189 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 1: Divisional it's a divisional game to start this season. Nine. 190 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 2: I know, teams that are coming off of championships who 191 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:11,079 Speaker 2: have opened up, generally speaking, do pretty well against the spread. 192 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:14,320 Speaker 2: I think it's fourteen and fourteen, seven and one over 193 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 2: the last twenty two games that we've seen this. But 194 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:21,440 Speaker 2: I mean it's a distracted it's a distraction night. I mean, 195 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 2: it's it's a championship banner night, and you think about 196 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 2: all everything happened last year versus what happened this year, 197 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 2: and you can get caught. I mean, the Patriots got 198 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 2: beat years you know, famously a bunch of years ago 199 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 2: on their banner night. And I don't think the Eagles 200 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:39,079 Speaker 2: win the or lose the game, but I could see, 201 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:40,959 Speaker 2: you know how high doing that number goes. 202 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: Can we see ten by the time we get to 203 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 1: kick off? 204 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 3: We maybe could? 205 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 1: There's what's different nine and ten. 206 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 2: There's no real difference from a book perspective, right, and 207 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 2: then ten's the key number. 208 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 3: And everyone wants to bet the opener, So there's going 209 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 3: to be a big volume of bets coming in, and 210 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 3: I think most of those bets are going on the Eagles. 211 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 3: Maybe it does go to ten, in which case I 212 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 3: might have to think about middling this. Trying to middle it. 213 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 1: It's a good play. I mean, if you have six 214 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 1: and a half, it's a great play. 215 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 3: It puts me right on that a seven point Eagles 216 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:12,880 Speaker 3: win and the season gets off to a good start. 217 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:16,560 Speaker 2: The total it's forty seven and a half. Doesn't it 218 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 2: feel like most games involving the Cowboys will be overs 219 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 2: this year? 220 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 3: And it seems like haven't the Thursday Night Openers hit 221 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:29,200 Speaker 3: the over pretty consistently in the last few years, So Yeah, 222 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 3: I do think overs maybe the way. 223 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 2: To go here, Casey and the Chargers overseas. Look, I 224 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 2: hate betting overseas games, and I can't believe that the 225 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:43,839 Speaker 2: Chiefs are giving up and the Chargers are giving up 226 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 2: games like this, the Chargers giving up a home game 227 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,800 Speaker 2: on top of that against their biggest rival in the 228 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 2: Chiefs to go overseas one. What do you make of 229 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 2: a handicap involving an overseas team, because last year we 230 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:00,319 Speaker 2: saw it with the Eagles and the turf being a problem. 231 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:02,880 Speaker 2: What do you make of the Chargers hosting the Chiefs. 232 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, I kind of don't want to touch it, Matt, 233 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 3: because of the overseas factor, the travel, the fact that 234 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 3: the Packers and the Eagles played on an ice skating 235 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:15,080 Speaker 3: rink last year. In this game, maybe it makes me 236 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:18,160 Speaker 3: want to lean over with the fenders falling down and 237 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 3: things like that, but I'm probably just not. 238 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 1: Going to touch it. 239 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, numbers three, it feels right. I think the Chargers. 240 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:27,840 Speaker 2: If they were at home, I think they would be 241 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 2: live to win this game. I think they still have 242 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:32,559 Speaker 2: a really good shot at winning this game. I think 243 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 2: the Chargers are going to be a tough out against 244 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 2: anyone this year. And I think that the Chiefs are 245 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 2: going to have a step back year. Nobody wants to 246 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 2: acknowledge that, but people picking the Chiefs to go to 247 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:43,199 Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. 248 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:46,080 Speaker 1: I kind of laugh at and go, what are we doing? 249 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 2: Are we just assuming yes, it's Patrick Mahomes. But the 250 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 2: AFC is going to be far more difficult In the 251 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:54,200 Speaker 2: AFC West, It's going to be as difficult as it's 252 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 2: ever been since Patrick Mahomes has entered the NFL. He's 253 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 2: got three teams that all can beat him on any 254 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:03,320 Speaker 2: given Sunday, and that has not been the case for 255 00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 2: a while. The Buffalo Bills they got to walk in 256 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 2: the park in the AFC East. But the AFC West 257 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 2: is really really difficult this season with the everyone loving 258 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:16,480 Speaker 2: the Broncos, the Raiders looking comparable, and the Charges. Like 259 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:20,040 Speaker 2: we talked about, any shot in your mind that case 260 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 2: does not win the West. 261 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 3: I think it's possible, and I think Denver would be 262 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 3: the team that could take them down, because that probably 263 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 3: is the best defense in the NFL right now. But 264 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 3: if the Chiefs have their offensive line fixed, and it 265 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 3: seems like maybe they could. I mean, they stole Josh 266 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:39,319 Speaker 3: Simmons at the end of the first round, like getting 267 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 3: the best pure tackle in the draft because he was 268 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:43,719 Speaker 3: coming off this knee injury and then he turned out 269 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:47,800 Speaker 3: to be aoka and you know, took part in training 270 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:49,480 Speaker 3: camp and all that and is ready to start at 271 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 3: left tackle. Like that's the secret sauce. Like, if they 272 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,079 Speaker 3: have the offensive line fixed, I think they're going to 273 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:59,079 Speaker 3: win the division. But Denver could be a problem. 274 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 2: Like I mentioned, guys, the Betting pros app has been updated. 275 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:05,200 Speaker 2: If you have it already, check it out. 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That's the code Juice and 285 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:37,360 Speaker 2: activating your trial on the upgrade screen. Okay, we're going 286 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 2: to give three bets that we're watching that we might make. 287 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 2: Now that it's a capital m might, underscore itele sized might. Okay, 288 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,200 Speaker 2: these aren't plays per se, but these are plays that 289 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 2: we might make in numbers that we are watching for Sunday. Pat, 290 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:56,200 Speaker 2: you can go first, what's a market? What's a bet 291 00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 2: you're looking to make come Sunday? 292 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 3: Texans rams under forty three and a half. Matt, I'm 293 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:05,680 Speaker 3: always kind of looking at unders in Week one. I 294 00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 3: think the defenses tend to be ahead of the offenses 295 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 3: coming out of you know what little amounts for a 296 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 3: preseason these days. I know our colleague Andrew Erickson has 297 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:17,440 Speaker 3: been on the under for this game for weeks, if 298 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:20,280 Speaker 3: not months. The Texans had one of the worst offensive 299 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:22,960 Speaker 3: lines in the league last year, quite possibly the worst, 300 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 3: and their first big offensive line personnel move of the offseason, 301 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 3: they traded away their best offensive lineman, left tackle Laramie Tonsel. 302 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 3: Like this line is going to be really bad again, 303 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 3: and good luck keeping Jared Verse away from CJ. Stroud 304 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 3: in that opener, and good luck running the ball with 305 00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 3: post knee injury Nick Chubb working behind that offensive line. 306 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 3: But the Texans do have a nasty defense. They ranked 307 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 3: third in defensive DVA last season. The edge rushing tag 308 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 3: team of Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter is truly fearsome. 309 00:14:56,960 --> 00:15:00,040 Speaker 3: And you know, Rams QB Matt Stafford probably isn't f 310 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 3: to nimble these days with the back issues he's been having, 311 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 3: So the Rams have good cornerbacks to match or excuse me, 312 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:09,880 Speaker 3: the Texans have good cornerbacks to match up with Hukiniku 313 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 3: and DeVante Adams, you know, led by Derek Stingley Junior. 314 00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 3: I just think Texans Rams turns into kind of a 315 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:19,680 Speaker 3: low scoring taffy poll. Matt like, I love the under 316 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 3: forty three and a half here. 317 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 2: I like it a lot, and I think some really 318 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 2: good points about where the Texans are. And I don't 319 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 2: know what to make of the Texans offense, to be 320 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 2: quite honest, I think we've got a big I think 321 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 2: it's a big year for CJ. 322 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 1: Stroud. 323 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 2: I think it's also a huge year for Tamiko Ryan. 324 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 2: I think to go out there and prove that, like 325 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:39,800 Speaker 2: the start to his career as the head coach, wasn't 326 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:43,000 Speaker 2: a fluke. So I don't know. I'm gonna wait and 327 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:45,400 Speaker 2: see and watch mode. If I'm gonna back the Texans, 328 00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 2: I gotta see some improvement here over the next couple 329 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 2: of weeks to start the year. But I like the 330 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:53,520 Speaker 2: under for me. It's also an under. It's Pittsburgh and 331 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 2: New York under thirty nine. I just I don't think 332 00:15:57,280 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 2: the Jets are going to score at all this year. 333 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 2: I think the just and fields l offense is going 334 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 2: to be run and run and run. I just they 335 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 2: have Garrett Wilson and what else is really part of 336 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 2: that receiving corps that's going to scare teams, And if 337 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 2: you have a decent secondary, you can take away Garrett 338 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 2: Wilson and make them run the football. 339 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 1: On the flip side, you have. 340 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 2: A new defensive coordinator slash head coach, and you've got 341 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 2: a guy who did great jobs a great job in 342 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 2: Detroit now coming over and taking over this defense. There's 343 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 2: a lot of talent on that defense for the Jets, 344 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 2: And I don't know what to make Aaron Rodgers. I 345 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:33,440 Speaker 2: have no clue what this offense is going to look 346 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 2: like in Pittsburgh out of the gate. 347 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 1: It might look great. 348 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 2: They might run the ball really effectively, but I think 349 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 2: both teams want to run and play defense under thirty 350 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 2: nine and it's been dropping opened up at thirty nine 351 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:46,880 Speaker 2: and a half. It's dropped down a thirty nine or 352 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 2: thirty eight and a half, depending on where you're looking. 353 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 2: But how do you feel about under Jets Steelers? 354 00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 3: Pretty good? I think it's an excellent call. It's hard 355 00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 3: to see this game getting the forty points, and you know, 356 00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:02,360 Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers having to get in sync with a new 357 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 3: cast of pass catchers, which isn't really that talented a 358 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:10,160 Speaker 3: cast of pass catchers other than maybe DK Metcalf. Metcalf 359 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:11,840 Speaker 3: doesn't strike me as a guy who is going to 360 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 3: pairwell with Rogers being the timing guy. Rogers loves it 361 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 3: when receivers are in a certain spot at a certain point, 362 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 3: whereas DK Metcalf is just gonna I'm gonna run down 363 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:22,360 Speaker 3: the field and throw it up for me and let 364 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 3: me just snatch it away from whoever's trying to guard me. 365 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 3: So yeah, that and you know, justin fields, I know, 366 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 3: like in what little preseason action he saw wasn't real sharp. Like, 367 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 3: these are two of the worst groups of pass catchers 368 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:38,159 Speaker 3: in the league. I don't know who's going to make 369 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,399 Speaker 3: a play in this game, Matt. That's that's the issue. 370 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:43,920 Speaker 2: I find thirty nine in the market. There's a couple 371 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:45,679 Speaker 2: of them out there, but it opened at thirty nine 372 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:47,399 Speaker 2: and a half. Circus down to thirty eight and a 373 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 2: half already, bet number two for you, Pat, What are 374 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 2: you looking at? 375 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 3: Seahawks plus two and a half at home against the 376 00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 3: forty nine ers, I. 377 00:17:57,240 --> 00:17:58,440 Speaker 1: Mean divisional game? 378 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, this, and I know divisional games can be unpredictable. 379 00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:05,399 Speaker 3: This line just seems so disrespectful to the Seahawks, Like, 380 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 3: are we just going to pretend the forty nine Ers 381 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:10,400 Speaker 3: didn't finish dead last in the NFC West a year ago? 382 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 3: I mean they were six and eleven, the Seahawks were 383 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:16,200 Speaker 3: ten and seven, And the forty nine Ers are favored 384 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 3: on the road in one of the toughest places to 385 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,760 Speaker 3: play in the league. For a road team like the 386 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:23,160 Speaker 3: Seahawks have a better defense than the forty nine Ers, 387 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 3: I'm confident in that. 388 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:25,360 Speaker 1: Wow. 389 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's going to be a well coached unit under 390 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:30,400 Speaker 3: Mike McDonald and I think Seattle could have a top 391 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,199 Speaker 3: five d this year. They have a big special team's 392 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:35,639 Speaker 3: edge based on what we saw last year. The Seahawks 393 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,880 Speaker 3: were tenth in special Teams DVA, the forty nine Ers 394 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 3: thirty first. Hello, Jake Moody. I know the forty nine 395 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 3: Ers have a much more well regarded to offense than 396 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,960 Speaker 3: the Seahawks, and that's fair. But like new offensive coordinator 397 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,200 Speaker 3: Clint Kubiak is going to make a difference for Seattle, 398 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:54,159 Speaker 3: and I think we saw that in the preseason. I 399 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 3: know it's only the preseason, but the Seattle first team 400 00:18:57,119 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 3: offense looked really good. The Kubiaks always have a good 401 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 3: running game. For years, it was Clint stad Gary working 402 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:07,280 Speaker 3: as run game magic in Denver than in Houston. Now 403 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 3: it's Clint using that same outside zone scheme the great success. 404 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 3: And he's got his dad's old offensive assistant in Rick Dennison, 405 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 3: who's going to help the running game go in Seattle. 406 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 3: And you know that line was always a problem last 407 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 3: year for Seattle. First round pick grays Abel looks like 408 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:26,440 Speaker 3: he's going to be an instant like Pro Bowl type guy. 409 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 3: His preseason tape was incredible. He's just a furniture mover 410 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:31,680 Speaker 3: in the running game. So I love Seattle in the 411 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,680 Speaker 3: two and a half points, Matt, I think Seattle wins outright. 412 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 2: Ooh, how about that home look divisional teams right now, 413 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,880 Speaker 2: taking home dogs and divisional games early in seasons has 414 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:46,159 Speaker 2: been very profitable, So I like it my second one, 415 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 2: and this is my team, Raiders catching three on the 416 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:53,240 Speaker 2: road against the Patriots. I think everyone is sleeping a 417 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 2: little bit on what the Raiders are going to look like, 418 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,879 Speaker 2: in particular early in the season, when they're gonna have 419 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 2: their offensive line healthy and they're gonna have ass gingenty 420 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 2: without having a lot of tread on the tires right 421 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:05,920 Speaker 2: out of the gate. They have a comparable quarterback in 422 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:09,439 Speaker 2: Geno Smith, and everyone is in love with the Patriots. 423 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:11,159 Speaker 1: I like the Patriots. 424 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 2: I'm not in love with them the same way that 425 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 2: everybody else is because I don't know how quickly Josh 426 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 2: mcdaniels's offense is going to be picked up upon by 427 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 2: Drake May and look, I hope that it's awesome. I mean, 428 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:24,920 Speaker 2: help is quick, but the amount of money that's being 429 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 2: met on the over and the fact that people are 430 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 2: thinking out of the gate, the Patriots are going to 431 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:32,280 Speaker 2: blow the doors off the Raiders. Like, this is not 432 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,600 Speaker 2: a mid season trip for a West Coast team going east. 433 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 2: This is the first game of the year, so this 434 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 2: is plenty of you know, fresh legs and get into 435 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 2: your routine. And Pete Carroll is a really good coach. 436 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:46,520 Speaker 2: I like Mike vrabel A lot. I think it's gonna 437 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,680 Speaker 2: be really good long term. But out of the gate, 438 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,440 Speaker 2: I got big questions about what the Patriots are gonna 439 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:55,119 Speaker 2: look like here, and everyone just thinks that they're gonna 440 00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 2: win ten games and this is an automatic w against 441 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 2: the Raiders. I get three points, the Raiders might win 442 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,680 Speaker 2: the game outright, and the Patriots are going to be 443 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 2: left going what just happened? 444 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:07,520 Speaker 1: How do you feel about the Raiders of the Patriots? Yeah? 445 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 3: Because it's Week one, are you less concerned about the 446 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 3: West Coast team going early for an early start game? Yeah, yes, 447 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:15,679 Speaker 3: Like I would not want to make that bet in 448 00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 3: Week eight. Agree, But it's probably not going to be 449 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:21,280 Speaker 3: that big a factor. You figure they're going to be 450 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 3: in town a couple of days early and acclimated the 451 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 3: time change, so it's. 452 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:26,920 Speaker 1: A peak care revenge game. 453 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 2: I mean, he's going back to he he hates the Patriots, 454 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 2: the Patriots hates him. There's just so much bad blood here. 455 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 2: I mean, he's his team's going to be ready. I mean, 456 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 2: there's no debate in my mind. The Raiders are coming 457 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 2: into Foxborough focused. 458 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you, Like the Raiders are a live 459 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:45,480 Speaker 3: dog and their personnel is not bad. Like I don't 460 00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:49,440 Speaker 3: think their secondary is great, but you know, Ken Drake 461 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 3: May and just a kind of a SOS group of 462 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,680 Speaker 3: pass catchers take advantage. I don't know, so I getting three. 463 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of like that beat number three play 464 00:21:59,080 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 1: for you this. 465 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,080 Speaker 3: Oh, it's going to be another under, Matt. It's going 466 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 3: to be Giants Commanders under forty five and a half. 467 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 3: And for me not to want to bet the under 468 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 3: in a Week one game with a total of forty 469 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:12,879 Speaker 3: five or higher, it has to be a couple of 470 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:16,359 Speaker 3: good offenses and a couple of less than stellar defenses, 471 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 3: or maybe just a couple of great offenses. Like I'm 472 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,879 Speaker 3: not I'm not interested in betting the under and Ravens 473 00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 3: bills for instance, But Giants commanders forty five and a 474 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:29,159 Speaker 3: half seems way too steep for any game involving the 475 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,800 Speaker 3: Giants this year. Who I think could be an under machine. 476 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:34,679 Speaker 3: They were the second lowest scoring team in the league 477 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,480 Speaker 3: last year. Only the Browns scored fewer points. Their Week 478 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:41,879 Speaker 3: one quarterback is Russell Wilson, who is clearly passed his 479 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:46,720 Speaker 3: Sell by date. The Giants defense looks pretty imposing. I 480 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 3: mean they can come in opposing quarterbacks with Dexter Lawrence, 481 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 3: Brian Burns, Kevon Thibodeau and rookie Studd Abdul Carter like. 482 00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 3: That's a pretty fearsome pass rush right there. And no 483 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:01,120 Speaker 3: disrespect to jayde Daniels, who's terrific, but the Giants defense 484 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:02,440 Speaker 3: is legitimately scary. 485 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:02,720 Speaker 2: Now. 486 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 3: I don't know if this game gets to forty let 487 00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:08,320 Speaker 3: alone to forty six, So under forty five and a 488 00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:09,399 Speaker 3: half looks real good to me. 489 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 2: Now I'm the Giant hater here, so I'm on the 490 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:15,880 Speaker 2: under five and a half wins for the Giants this year. 491 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:19,040 Speaker 2: But my handicap on that fits right back into what 492 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,119 Speaker 2: you're talking about. I do think their defense is going 493 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,120 Speaker 2: to keep them in football games. I don't like their 494 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,560 Speaker 2: offense at all. You can tell me about Mileague neighbors 495 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 2: all you want, but I just don't think the Giants 496 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 2: have an offense or a quarterback worth really being afraid of. 497 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:33,960 Speaker 2: It could be thirteen to ten. I think most of 498 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:35,840 Speaker 2: the games this year are going to look like that 499 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:40,479 Speaker 2: for the Giants, low scoring, rock fight type football, and 500 00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 2: then maybe later in the year they'll start to get 501 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,640 Speaker 2: more loose and more developing of younger players on offense. 502 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,280 Speaker 2: But I'm with you, I think this game is a 503 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,639 Speaker 2: dead under just because I don't think the Giants are 504 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 2: going to score and I don't think the Giants give 505 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,600 Speaker 2: up many points. Are you high on the Giants in 506 00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 2: the regular season from a win total perspective? Do you 507 00:23:58,600 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 2: think they over five and a half? 508 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:00,360 Speaker 4: No? 509 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:01,080 Speaker 2: No? 510 00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:04,919 Speaker 3: And their early season schedule is murderous, which is going 511 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,400 Speaker 3: to give them the whole schedules murder Yeah, which gives 512 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 3: them the perfect excuse to, you know, pull the plate. 513 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,520 Speaker 3: Jason Russell Wilson play Jackson Dart late in the season, 514 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:15,960 Speaker 3: just kind of audition him, and like, I don't expect 515 00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 3: Dart to be able to win a lot of games, 516 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:19,920 Speaker 3: So I'm with you, Like, I don't have high hopes 517 00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:21,960 Speaker 3: for the team, but I do think they're gonna be 518 00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,320 Speaker 3: in a lot of rock fights with this defense. Like 519 00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:26,520 Speaker 3: the defense is pretty fearsome. 520 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, my final one, I'm going to do it, and 521 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,600 Speaker 2: I'm gonna watch this number and if it goes to six, 522 00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 2: I'm gonna take it and I'm gonna tease it. 523 00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:37,920 Speaker 1: But after two straight years of the. 524 00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:41,000 Speaker 2: Bengals losing on the week the first week of the 525 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:45,080 Speaker 2: season and last year taking out everyone survivor pick and 526 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:47,320 Speaker 2: will do some recommendations for that here in a second, 527 00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:49,639 Speaker 2: I'm gonna lay the five and a half or the 528 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 2: six with the Bengals on the road against the Browns 529 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:57,760 Speaker 2: because the entire preseason has been focused on this football game. 530 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,359 Speaker 2: They want to end the narrative. They want to get 531 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,760 Speaker 2: out there and put up a ton of points. And 532 00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:04,719 Speaker 2: I think the Browns are going to be god awful 533 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 2: and I don't think they want to win. I don't 534 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:10,119 Speaker 2: think they're trying to win. Whether it's for Arch Manning 535 00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,159 Speaker 2: or somebody else. The Browns are fielding a team that 536 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,640 Speaker 2: just isn't respectable on both sides of the football. I'll 537 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:18,480 Speaker 2: lay the five and a half points on the Bengals. 538 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:20,800 Speaker 2: Will you follow me? Will you come with me on 539 00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 2: this boat, Pat, because we're gonna be alone with some 540 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:26,639 Speaker 2: people because they've been the darlings of the upset world 541 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 2: every week. 542 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,520 Speaker 3: One here's where I'm gonna have to push your boat 543 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,199 Speaker 3: out to see and waved you from a shore. That 544 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,840 Speaker 3: I just I don't know if I have enough trust 545 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,600 Speaker 3: in the Bengals defense, even against a really bad offense 546 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 3: like after I'm kind of haunted by what we saw 547 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:44,040 Speaker 3: in that preseason game against the Washington Commanders, where like 548 00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,480 Speaker 3: every Commander running back who touched the ball was breaking 549 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:51,159 Speaker 3: off huge gains against the Bengals what I think was 550 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,480 Speaker 3: mostly their first team defense at the time. 551 00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 1: Yep. 552 00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,920 Speaker 3: So it's just kind of terrified. Do I think Joe 553 00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,359 Speaker 3: Burrow is going to pick his teeth with the Browns defense? 554 00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 3: Probably unless we get some sort of hillacious weather in Cleveland, 555 00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:08,080 Speaker 3: and always possible we get the wind tunnel effect there 556 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 3: and the passing game doesn't work. 557 00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:10,040 Speaker 1: So I've just. 558 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:13,840 Speaker 3: If it was closer to a field goal, I could 559 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,280 Speaker 3: maybe go with you there. But it's what do you say, 560 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:17,639 Speaker 3: is it five or five and a half. 561 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,040 Speaker 1: It's five and a half right now and climbing it's 562 00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:21,400 Speaker 1: going up. Yeah, it's not going down. 563 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,320 Speaker 3: It's going up, right If you're going to get the 564 00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 3: Bengals like now, it's the time to get them. But 565 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:27,760 Speaker 3: I think this one might be a stay away from me. 566 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:31,320 Speaker 2: I think the Bengals in a big way finally get 567 00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:34,600 Speaker 2: that monkey off their back. Guys, we talked a lot 568 00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,240 Speaker 2: about highlighting edges already on this show. You can do 569 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,120 Speaker 2: that with betting systems. That is something you can find 570 00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,280 Speaker 2: on the Betting pros app. Our system tool is designed 571 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,240 Speaker 2: to help you find winning strategies to make smarter bets. 572 00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:48,879 Speaker 2: You can customize your betting system by sport, by bet type, 573 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,600 Speaker 2: and time frame to find the best opportunities. Using real 574 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,919 Speaker 2: time data and expert analysis, track the performance of different 575 00:26:54,920 --> 00:27:00,160 Speaker 2: betting systems over time and optimize your opportunities to succeed. 576 00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,400 Speaker 2: Download the Betting pros app today or go to bettingpros 577 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 2: dot com slash systems to elevate your betting strategies and 578 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:12,840 Speaker 2: start making smarter bets, survivor contests, picks, and strategies. Pat, 579 00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:15,199 Speaker 2: I'm in a couple. I know you're in a couple. 580 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:21,239 Speaker 2: Let's talk about it. Everyone in their mother Everyone is 581 00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:23,320 Speaker 2: going to be fading the Saints all year. 582 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:29,439 Speaker 3: Factor fiction fact in fact, I mean the idea of 583 00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 3: taking the Cardinals as a road team and a survivor pool. 584 00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,520 Speaker 3: I mean, that's counterintuitive to everything we think about survivor pools, 585 00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:40,399 Speaker 3: and yet people are going to do it against the 586 00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:43,600 Speaker 3: New Orleans Saints in Week one. I personally don't have 587 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 3: the guts to do it, but I think that is 588 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:49,120 Speaker 3: like the bronze medalist pick for me when I'm looking 589 00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:51,600 Speaker 3: at survivor pool possibilities in week one. 590 00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:55,159 Speaker 1: Do you have rules about survivor picks? Because I have rules. 591 00:27:56,119 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 3: I mean, I generally generally don't like takeing a road 592 00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:01,760 Speaker 3: team at any point. 593 00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,320 Speaker 2: I'll take road teams. I will never pick a game 594 00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:06,720 Speaker 2: involving a divisional rival. 595 00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 3: Yes avoided. 596 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:08,480 Speaker 1: I will. 597 00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,199 Speaker 2: I will never, ever, ever ever unless I have to 598 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,399 Speaker 2: and I have no choice and nothing is left but 599 00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,960 Speaker 2: a divisional game. I just I start the schedule by 600 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:20,119 Speaker 2: going through in Dallas and Philly cross it off. You 601 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,679 Speaker 2: just go through Chiefs and Chargers cross it off, like 602 00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:27,800 Speaker 2: they're not even possible conversations each week for me when 603 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 2: it comes to divisional games, because they are wonky and 604 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:32,040 Speaker 2: they do not go the way that you think they're 605 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:32,439 Speaker 2: gonna go. 606 00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:37,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, so Dallas Philly is the one where, like my 607 00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 3: I'm generally with you on that, Okay, but I just wonder, like, 608 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:45,600 Speaker 3: has the Micah Parson's trade coming so soon before the 609 00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,840 Speaker 3: Seaton was? Was that like a morale wrecker for the Cowboys? 610 00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,560 Speaker 3: And I just you know, I I don't know if 611 00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,560 Speaker 3: the Eagles are going to lay an egg on Banner Night, 612 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 3: you know what I mean. So that definitely one of 613 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,160 Speaker 3: the one of the games I'm looking at. 614 00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:05,239 Speaker 2: This week, divisional game. I can't do it. Secondly, to 615 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:09,200 Speaker 2: your point, road big road favorites, be really wary, you know, 616 00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:11,640 Speaker 2: be be real wary of a seven and a half 617 00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,480 Speaker 2: point line, eight point line for a team going on 618 00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:18,040 Speaker 2: the road. It's it's the level of disrespect and the 619 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:20,120 Speaker 2: fact that players take their foot off their gas and 620 00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,320 Speaker 2: they think it's going to be an easy w and 621 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:22,680 Speaker 2: it's not. 622 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,560 Speaker 1: So I'm often very very worried about that. 623 00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 2: And then revenge spots like I don't like if there's 624 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:32,440 Speaker 2: a story like Pete Carroll going back to New England 625 00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:36,320 Speaker 2: for instance. Okay, those types of angles, whether it's factor fiction, 626 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:38,360 Speaker 2: whether it's real or not, I tend to go and 627 00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:40,040 Speaker 2: look for something else because I don't want to get 628 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:43,000 Speaker 2: bit and get knocked out Because somehow a coach was 629 00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,200 Speaker 2: able to rally and get his troops to go up 630 00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:47,800 Speaker 2: and storm the mountain just one time. It's only one game. 631 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,800 Speaker 2: If for wrong, once we're dead in Survivor. So I 632 00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 2: tend to look around, so you look at Dallas my 633 00:29:56,360 --> 00:30:00,200 Speaker 2: number one. The only play that I will make. I 634 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,240 Speaker 2: think I'm putting everything, every single Survivor contest I've got 635 00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,720 Speaker 2: is on the Denver Broncos at home against the tennseee Titans. 636 00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 1: It's a home team. It's a seven to a point spread. 637 00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 2: It's so similar to the Patriots on the road last 638 00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:19,040 Speaker 2: year up against the Bengals. Like the scenario. The numbers 639 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:22,320 Speaker 2: are the same, the handicaps the same. But I don't 640 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:24,680 Speaker 2: think Sean Payton gets beat the same way that Zach 641 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,240 Speaker 2: Taylor got beat last year. I like Denver to win, 642 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:29,040 Speaker 2: how about you? 643 00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:29,840 Speaker 4: Yeah? 644 00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:33,800 Speaker 3: And having rookie quarterback cam Ward sort of get thrown 645 00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:36,280 Speaker 3: to the Wolves in his first game at Mile High. 646 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,239 Speaker 3: At Mile High against this defense that can bring the 647 00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:43,440 Speaker 3: pass rush from so many different positions and then has 648 00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:47,640 Speaker 3: just an ice cold secondary. I mean, the Titans defense 649 00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:51,680 Speaker 3: could be pretty decent with Jeffrey Simmons leading the way upfront, 650 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:55,840 Speaker 3: and the offensive line should be better and healthier you know, 651 00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,120 Speaker 3: and what if cam Ward is good right away? So 652 00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,600 Speaker 3: I've been trying to like look at reverse engineering this 653 00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 3: and figuring out how this could go wrong. But man, 654 00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:10,000 Speaker 3: like this does look like a pretty good percentage play here, 655 00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:12,960 Speaker 3: Like it's it would be really hard to see the 656 00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,000 Speaker 3: Titans going in and winning this game. 657 00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,560 Speaker 2: Anything else I like Denver, you look at Dallas, anything 658 00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:21,960 Speaker 2: else you like from a survivor perspective. 659 00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:25,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean you mentioned the Bengals as one possibility, 660 00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:26,760 Speaker 3: but I know a lot of people got burned by 661 00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:27,360 Speaker 3: them last year. 662 00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,680 Speaker 2: You got Coohonis, you got stones if you if you 663 00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,240 Speaker 2: picked the Bengals in Week one last year and lost, 664 00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:36,920 Speaker 2: if you go back to the well in particular, if 665 00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:40,640 Speaker 2: you're in a high stake survivor pool, you got to 666 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:43,920 Speaker 2: I'm gonna tip my cap, right or wrong. I mean, 667 00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:45,960 Speaker 2: you are a gambler if you picked the Bengals. 668 00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:48,719 Speaker 3: Yeah, So, I mean I know a lot of what 669 00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,520 Speaker 3: a lot of people like. If you don't like picking 670 00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,160 Speaker 3: division games. I get it. If that is your policy, 671 00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,720 Speaker 3: I understand it. It's generally good policy, and I do 672 00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 3: think a lot of people will want to save the 673 00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:02,760 Speaker 3: Eagles for later, looking after their at their schedule like 674 00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:06,280 Speaker 3: after Week one road game against the Chiefs, home game 675 00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 3: against the Rams, who gave them their toughest battle in 676 00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:14,120 Speaker 3: the playoffs, at Tampa Bay home against Denver at the Giants, 677 00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,600 Speaker 3: at the Vikings home against the Giants in Week eight. 678 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 3: So really none of those games look like layups unless 679 00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,720 Speaker 3: well until that home game against the Giants in Week eight, 680 00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,840 Speaker 3: and you know, maybe if you want to take them. 681 00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:28,240 Speaker 3: I don't know if you'd ever want to take a 682 00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:31,120 Speaker 3: road divisional game against the Giants, So. 683 00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:33,240 Speaker 2: You know, like. 684 00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,360 Speaker 3: I do think there's a case for the Eagles right now. 685 00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,480 Speaker 3: I'm kind of torn between the Eagles and Broncos and 686 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:46,080 Speaker 3: might actually split my three survivor pools on those. So 687 00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:49,480 Speaker 3: no Seattle. You were pretty high on the Pingos. There 688 00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:56,440 Speaker 3: no Seattle's road or they're a home underdog. So yeah, 689 00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,600 Speaker 3: I mean I like them, but I don't feel confident 690 00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:00,000 Speaker 3: enough to pick them in a survivor. 691 00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,520 Speaker 2: I'll give the NFL credit. There are so many divisional 692 00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:15,200 Speaker 2: games in week number one. Let's see, there's one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, 693 00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,360 Speaker 2: There's eight divisional games, so there's a lot. So like 694 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,760 Speaker 2: it makes Week one even more treacherous, and that's why 695 00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,520 Speaker 2: I think everyone is going to be on Denver. So 696 00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,960 Speaker 2: if you are a chaos theory person like I am, 697 00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:30,920 Speaker 2: I love watching Survivor pools blow up. And that's why 698 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:32,920 Speaker 2: I told everybody all last summer, the Patriots are going 699 00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:35,480 Speaker 2: to beat the Bengals. And because everyone was running around 700 00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:37,760 Speaker 2: all year long saying take the Bengals, Take the Bengals, 701 00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:40,960 Speaker 2: it's a very similar refrain with the Broncos. And I 702 00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,040 Speaker 2: know I'm running right with the masses, and I could 703 00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:46,040 Speaker 2: be running right off the cliff with everybody else. And 704 00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:48,200 Speaker 2: so I don't mind your thought of saying, like, well, 705 00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:50,760 Speaker 2: everyone's going to be taking the Sunday games, I'll take 706 00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,320 Speaker 2: the Thursday game and get out of the way, because 707 00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,880 Speaker 2: the Eagles losing would be somewhat stunning to the Cowboys. 708 00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:00,840 Speaker 2: It's just what scares me is if the Cowboys defense, 709 00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:04,040 Speaker 2: again with Mett Eberflus, is better than we think, and 710 00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:06,520 Speaker 2: then all of a sudden we have Dak throwing a 711 00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,120 Speaker 2: very good secondary for the Eagles, mind you, but if 712 00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:12,040 Speaker 2: Pickens all of a sudden turns into this amazing number 713 00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:14,480 Speaker 2: two weapon and the Cowboys are going up that up 714 00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:17,360 Speaker 2: and down the field on the on this Eagles defense. 715 00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,200 Speaker 2: That's my one concern with that game. So none of 716 00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:22,919 Speaker 2: these games are easy. It's week one. I mean every 717 00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:25,239 Speaker 2: Survivor game is going to be a sweat in a 718 00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:25,920 Speaker 2: lot of ways. 719 00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:27,640 Speaker 1: We'll ask you. 720 00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,960 Speaker 2: One more, RAMS hosting the Texans. Can you take the 721 00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:36,040 Speaker 2: Rams in a Survivor pool? Now what stuffers back? 722 00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:36,279 Speaker 1: Right? 723 00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:36,800 Speaker 3: You can't? 724 00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:37,680 Speaker 1: You can't trust it? 725 00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:42,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, not yet. Just like I the Texans defense is 726 00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:45,280 Speaker 3: too good for me to feel comfortable with that game. 727 00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:50,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna be. Week one is a minefield. 728 00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:51,439 Speaker 2: This is gonna be fun to do this every week, 729 00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,400 Speaker 2: but week one it's an absolute mindful just survive in advance. 730 00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:56,520 Speaker 2: Like just ess, if you're going to Survivor pool, just 731 00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,280 Speaker 2: hope you get past week one and week two because 732 00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:02,640 Speaker 2: those two weeks last year in the Survivor, in the 733 00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:06,200 Speaker 2: Circus Survivor, which this year will be close to twenty 734 00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:09,399 Speaker 2: million dollars in the prize pool, last year, thirty five 735 00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:12,719 Speaker 2: percent got knocked out in the first week. They had 736 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:14,640 Speaker 2: to go back and off for a rebuy and let 737 00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:16,520 Speaker 2: people bought back back in because they had so many 738 00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:19,800 Speaker 2: people knocked out in week number one. So if Denver loses, 739 00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:23,360 Speaker 2: it's the same scenario, it's gonna knock out thirty forty 740 00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,600 Speaker 2: percent of the entire field will get knocked out in 741 00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:29,040 Speaker 2: week number one. Guys, want to track all your wagers 742 00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:31,760 Speaker 2: in one place, check out the Betting Pros Pick Tracker. 743 00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:35,200 Speaker 2: It syncs up with your sports books to tally picks 744 00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,200 Speaker 2: hits in, which misses, and which don't. Plus, it gives 745 00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:40,120 Speaker 2: you a live look at what the public is doing, 746 00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:42,440 Speaker 2: so you can see real time tracking data to determine 747 00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,239 Speaker 2: which place to make in which to fade. That's on 748 00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:47,640 Speaker 2: our users, by the way, which is kind of neat 749 00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:50,719 Speaker 2: you're going to feel for how the Betting Pros users. 750 00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:52,799 Speaker 2: It's not like we're going behind the counter of a 751 00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:55,520 Speaker 2: sports book. We're actually taking it from our data, our 752 00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,760 Speaker 2: own people that are using the app, and that's hundreds 753 00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:00,600 Speaker 2: of thousands of people who are going to be entering 754 00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:02,920 Speaker 2: in these bets. They're going to be able to tell you, guys, 755 00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:05,680 Speaker 2: what they're picking to either fade or follow the Betting 756 00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:08,080 Speaker 2: Pros community. You can track your picks today with Betting 757 00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:12,600 Speaker 2: Pros Picktracker at Bettingpros dot com, slash tracking, or on 758 00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:16,080 Speaker 2: the Betting Pros app. All right, let's talk about Sunday 759 00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:19,160 Speaker 2: a little bit, and what may be looking as as 760 00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:22,239 Speaker 2: a play. Is there a bet that you like, a 761 00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:24,799 Speaker 2: bet that you would make right now that you'd lock 762 00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:27,520 Speaker 2: in for Sunday, A pick, a prop, a future something 763 00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:28,439 Speaker 2: that you'd bet right now. 764 00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,960 Speaker 3: One last bet I want to make on a division winner, Matt, Like, 765 00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:36,920 Speaker 3: last opportunity before the regular season gets underway. The Seattle Seahawks. 766 00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,000 Speaker 3: Like I hinted at this earlier, they have the longest 767 00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:41,359 Speaker 3: dodts to win the NFC West at five to one 768 00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:45,160 Speaker 3: and against you, by the way, Yeah, I bet I 769 00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:47,719 Speaker 3: bet the Niners at plus one fifty. Interesting. 770 00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, so I got plus money and the Niners, though, 771 00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:51,360 Speaker 2: I was like, you give me plus money at the 772 00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:53,279 Speaker 2: Niners gotta take it. 773 00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:55,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, I just I don't know if it's the same 774 00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:57,560 Speaker 3: Niners team, Matt, and I think. 775 00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:00,000 Speaker 1: But still McCaffrey though, I mean, you've still got chrisip mcas. 776 00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:03,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a running back. Like, I'm not betting a 777 00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:06,120 Speaker 3: team to win a division based on a running back. Seattle, 778 00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:09,280 Speaker 3: I think just I think they have the best defense 779 00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:13,120 Speaker 3: in the division, like with Mike McDonald's who I trust 780 00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:17,719 Speaker 3: immensely coordinating it, you know, calling the shots Leonard Williams 781 00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:21,080 Speaker 3: and Reid and Dexter Lawrence up front, and these young 782 00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:24,839 Speaker 3: up and coming pass rushers and Devon Witherspoon headlining like 783 00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:28,000 Speaker 3: one of the more talented secondaries in the league. And 784 00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:30,840 Speaker 3: I kind of trust Clint Kubiak to get this offense going. 785 00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:33,680 Speaker 3: Like I know, there's still not a lot of love 786 00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,879 Speaker 3: out there for Sam Donald, even after the even after 787 00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:39,480 Speaker 3: the redemptive season he had with the Vikings last year, 788 00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:43,400 Speaker 3: but with everything else Seattle has going on, like, I 789 00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:46,920 Speaker 3: think Donald will be good enough to get the Seahawks 790 00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:49,120 Speaker 3: over the top and at least in contention. And I 791 00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:51,319 Speaker 3: like the pot odds here at five to one. 792 00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:55,200 Speaker 2: It is a great numbers play, I'll give you that 793 00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:58,440 Speaker 2: in a division that is pretty wide open, with the Rams, 794 00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:02,160 Speaker 2: questions at Stafford clearly, the questions around the forty nine ers. 795 00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,080 Speaker 2: Everyone just thinking they're gonna pick right back up after 796 00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:06,759 Speaker 2: one down year, but that defense has still got some 797 00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:09,400 Speaker 2: problems and some question marks, and Seattle is a very 798 00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:11,840 Speaker 2: tough place to play. I mean, going through Seattle is 799 00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:15,000 Speaker 2: really hard. So I just the Sam Darnald thing makes 800 00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:18,080 Speaker 2: me worried because I wonder how about Kevin O'Connell, how 801 00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:20,400 Speaker 2: much of it was him versus how much of it 802 00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:23,800 Speaker 2: was Sam Darnald, So how much was it the offense 803 00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:26,759 Speaker 2: and the quarterback whisperer if you will, I mean the 804 00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:29,319 Speaker 2: numbers and all the bets on Jj McCarthy. Everyone loves 805 00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:33,040 Speaker 2: Jj McCarthy to have a monster year under Koc with 806 00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:35,880 Speaker 2: the vikings. I guess we'll see whether it's was it 807 00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:38,200 Speaker 2: Donald or was it Koc. We'll find out once we 808 00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:40,120 Speaker 2: get to Jj and see what he looks like. So 809 00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,799 Speaker 2: for me, in terms of extra bets that I would make, 810 00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:46,719 Speaker 2: I still would really look at Ashton Genty. If you 811 00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,759 Speaker 2: haven't gotten involved in the Ashton Genty market yet, I 812 00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:50,799 Speaker 2: would really look to do. 813 00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:51,080 Speaker 4: So. 814 00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:53,880 Speaker 2: I bet over seven and a half rushing touchdowns for 815 00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:55,840 Speaker 2: Ashton Genty this year, and I think he's going to 816 00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:58,919 Speaker 2: vulture a lot of touchdowns from players to get knocked 817 00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,720 Speaker 2: out at the one or the two, and the Raiders 818 00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:03,920 Speaker 2: are going to run the ball like that's just what 819 00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:07,600 Speaker 2: they're going to do this year. And I know it's 820 00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:11,080 Speaker 2: a rookie, but I don't mind backing rookies that look 821 00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:13,480 Speaker 2: like ash Gingenty because I think they have the ability 822 00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:15,840 Speaker 2: to break a lot of tackles. And to be highly 823 00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:19,000 Speaker 2: effective in the red zone. So ashtonenty over seven a 824 00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:20,719 Speaker 2: half touchdowns if you can find it, I think is 825 00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:22,399 Speaker 2: a good bet for him. 826 00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:25,680 Speaker 1: And offensive Rookie of the Year isn't a bad. 827 00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:28,480 Speaker 2: Play either with ashtingenty, just because I think of usage, 828 00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:32,040 Speaker 2: he's going to be getting a ton of carries. Where 829 00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:33,840 Speaker 2: are you on the offensive line for the Raiders. How 830 00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:35,480 Speaker 2: big of a concern is that for you? 831 00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,279 Speaker 3: Oh, I think it's I think it's adequate. You know, 832 00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,560 Speaker 3: I don't think it's going to be a problem for genty. 833 00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,000 Speaker 3: I mean, I just I love the contact balance. 834 00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:43,200 Speaker 2: Man. 835 00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:47,880 Speaker 3: It's like his contact balance is truly extraordinary. Like you 836 00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:51,200 Speaker 3: have to just clabber that dude to get him off 837 00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:53,759 Speaker 3: his feet. It is not easy, like he does not 838 00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:57,000 Speaker 3: want to go down and like I am with you 839 00:39:57,040 --> 00:40:00,600 Speaker 3: pretty much slam the any Ashton j over. 840 00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:01,800 Speaker 1: Yeah. 841 00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:04,279 Speaker 2: I think rushing yards is ten seventy five, which is 842 00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:06,879 Speaker 2: not a ton. If he says healthy, he should get that. 843 00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:09,160 Speaker 2: So there's a lot of action, gent markets. I think 844 00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:11,800 Speaker 2: you guys could could wind up getting into as well. 845 00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:15,520 Speaker 2: Anything on Sunday that you think should be bet right 846 00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:17,880 Speaker 2: now from a numbers perspective, I mean, any game that 847 00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:19,000 Speaker 2: you would fire on right now. 848 00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:21,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, well, I'm totally with you on the 849 00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:25,799 Speaker 3: under on Steelers chats, like I just. 850 00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,839 Speaker 1: I would take that now that numbers that that's I'm 851 00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:29,120 Speaker 1: with you. 852 00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:31,399 Speaker 2: I'm on the same market where if you can find 853 00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:33,759 Speaker 2: thirty nine, take it, because I think might be thirty 854 00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:35,160 Speaker 2: six and a half by the time we get to 855 00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:35,640 Speaker 2: kick off. 856 00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:40,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, and man, like I'm a Packers fan, but like 857 00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:43,759 Speaker 3: Detroit has completely had our number since Dan Campbell has 858 00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:48,080 Speaker 3: gotten there. And like for Detroit to you know, they 859 00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,800 Speaker 3: started as a dog even before the Packers traded for 860 00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:53,360 Speaker 3: Micah Parsons, And now Detroit is getting two and a 861 00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:56,440 Speaker 3: half points and they're plus one twenty four looking at 862 00:40:56,480 --> 00:41:00,000 Speaker 3: DraftKings right now to you know, plus one twenty four 863 00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:03,520 Speaker 3: on the money line, Like I'm probably gonna bebut Detroit 864 00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:05,880 Speaker 3: on the money line. 865 00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:08,239 Speaker 1: It's gonna be a lot of fun. Week one is here. 866 00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:11,520 Speaker 2: Every single week you're gonna get Pappist Morris and myself, 867 00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:15,160 Speaker 2: Matt Parrel's breaking down the NFL lines, the look ahead numbers, 868 00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:18,160 Speaker 2: the survivor pick options, and bets that we're going to 869 00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:20,800 Speaker 2: be looking to make before we get to the weekend. 870 00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:23,399 Speaker 2: Make sure you hit subscribe if you've not done that, 871 00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:27,240 Speaker 2: so you're alerted whenever these videos go live all season long. 872 00:41:27,520 --> 00:41:29,439 Speaker 2: For pat On Matt, We'll talk to you next week 873 00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:33,560 Speaker 2: for Week two of the NFL Early Bets and Survivor Pools. 874 00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:34,520 Speaker 1: Here with Betting Pros. 875 00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:37,920 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 876 00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:40,320 Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 877 00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:43,759 Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 878 00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:46,680 Speaker 4: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 879 00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:50,440 Speaker 4: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 880 00:41:50,480 --> 00:42:02,719 Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros