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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I can just about that action

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Speaker 1: all right? Here we all throwing out show. We're sitting

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Speaker 1: up a cash touchdown. That's all we see. Most gamble

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Speaker 1: is ships. When they go to gamble, they go swim.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible, big bank small. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate combining and you want to.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: What's if?

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Speaker 2: Everybody?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I'm

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Speaker 1: your host, Chris Raybond, and this is our NFL Week

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Speaker 1: five betting preview. Today we're gonna talk size, We're gonna

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Speaker 1: talk totals, we're gonna talk props, moneyline, underdog, parways, anytime touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: Of course, as always goes off Sunday six, pat against

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Speaker 1: the Spread backs with the help of my co hosts.

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Speaker 1: The Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation Stucky stuck Bin just

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Speaker 1: on a real, real hot streak on the show, just

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Speaker 1: carrying up seventeen to nine officially on the score. How

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Speaker 1: you feeling heading into Week five? Stuff? Good?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is a good week, but still

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Speaker 2: no in game joy. I mean it's getting crazy at

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Speaker 2: this point going on the year and four weeks now,

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Speaker 2: like every swing game possible has gone the other way.

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Speaker 2: I should have three six pack sweeps in four weeks.

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Speaker 2: But the Rams got the field goal blocked at they're

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Speaker 2: being up twenty and the Raiders have a field goal

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Speaker 2: blocked and they were like net fifteen percent success rate average,

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Speaker 2: like three yards per play more had five turnovers in

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Speaker 2: their own territory. So that's frustrating, and like they're just

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Speaker 2: losing that one. Swinging every week adds up, so hopefully

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Speaker 2: can start to get some of those to go my way.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, it was a good week for the six

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Speaker 2: Pack on the show, and as always, who cares about

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Speaker 2: last week untill on the next?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, man, and now you've been locked in though I

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Speaker 1: give you credit. You've been just no no, no Titans

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Speaker 1: Shenanigans this year. I love it. So I'll get to

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Speaker 1: the six pack. Are you doing anything any thoughts on

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Speaker 1: Thursday Night football? Or are we just jumping right in?

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Speaker 2: I mean, there's just too many injuries. I mean I

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Speaker 2: think I assume Party, Pierceall and Gennings are going to

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Speaker 2: be out, and there's defensive injuries. They obviously missed Bosa,

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Speaker 2: there was, but like, I don't know, there comes a

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Speaker 2: point where I might have to buy the forty nine Ers.

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Speaker 2: They were minus four turnovers last game. For what it's worth,

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Speaker 2: if you bet teams off of four turnover plus games,

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Speaker 2: they're fifty eight percent against the spread the next week.

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Speaker 2: There's no home field advantage here like divisional game. With

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Speaker 2: this crowd and this travel, a lot of familiarity between

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Speaker 2: these teams. The forty nine is they have gone eleven

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Speaker 2: straight games without an interception. That's an NFL record. So

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Speaker 2: as of right now, it's just a tough one. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I already hate there's a night football night throwing all

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Speaker 2: of these injuries for San Francisco, it's probably a stay

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Speaker 2: away from me. But you know, if this keeps going,

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's seven and a half now at some

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Speaker 2: places I could only bet so it looks like it's

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Speaker 2: seven and a half minus one twelve. At DraftKings, I

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Speaker 2: could only go San Francisco. Not a game. I'm running

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Speaker 2: the bet. The gods are paying back the Rams for

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Speaker 2: that horrendously unlucky loss at Philly. They get the eighty

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Speaker 2: minutes'll drop at the one, Oh my goodness, and then

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Speaker 2: they get the forty nine ers decimated roster, and then hey,

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Speaker 2: guess what extra rest, Then you get to play the

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Speaker 2: Ravens decimated roster. Those are two of their hardest games

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Speaker 2: on their schedule, right on paper, the forty nine Ers

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Speaker 2: and Ravens back to back, and they might get you know,

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Speaker 2: backup quarterbacks and backups all over the place, but not

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Speaker 2: when I'm rushing to bet. There's just so many injuries

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Speaker 2: for San fran makes it makes it tough. But at

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Speaker 2: this point, market probably has gone a little too far.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's like you have to go San Francisco or nothing,

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Speaker 1: but you just don't. You don't really want to because

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Speaker 1: and this team continues to get injured to the point

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Speaker 1: where I know that they practice harder than most teams,

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Speaker 1: and you know even in the off season. But I

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Speaker 1: mean the Chiefs practice harder than anybody in the off

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Speaker 1: season from what I hear, and they seem to be

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Speaker 1: a little healthier than this. So this is at some

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Speaker 1: point they got to the Niners really have to address

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Speaker 1: this because this it's just week in, week out, and

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Speaker 1: they this is a super Bowl caliber roster. Every year

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Speaker 1: it starts as a super Bowl caliber roster and you know,

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Speaker 1: by week three it's like done. So we'll see how

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Speaker 1: that goes. But as I mentioned, stuck, you're up seventy

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Speaker 1: to nine in the six pack.

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Speaker 2: Thursday for actions, Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna start us off with my first pick of

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Speaker 1: the week five Sunday six pack. I'm gonna go with

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Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos plus three and a half at the

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles. And this is a pick that I actually

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Speaker 1: ended up deciding on weight later in the process. But

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Speaker 1: looking at this Eagles team, I mean, they've just gotten

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Speaker 1: extremely lucky. They're number one in our luck rankings right now.

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Speaker 1: The Broncos are twenty fourth. And when I look at Denver,

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Speaker 1: Denver is always a team I was high on. But

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Speaker 1: if you just look at the raw underlying metrics, offensively

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Speaker 1: EPA per play, Denver is better at point oh four

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Speaker 1: to eight. Philadelphia is at point oh three to two.

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Speaker 1: So Denver's thirteenth Philadelphia's sixteenth. That's offensively. Now, Defensively, Denver's

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Speaker 1: number four in EPA per play, the Eagles are twelfth.

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Speaker 1: If you look at success rate on the defensive side

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Speaker 1: of the ball, the Broncos jumped to third and Philly

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Speaker 1: drops the seventeenth, and that kind of matches the eye

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Speaker 1: test where you look at Philadelphia and when they play

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Speaker 1: a quality defense, I think you're gonna see issues. And

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Speaker 1: we started to see that against the Rams. We even

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Speaker 1: saw it for our half against the Cowboys before they

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Speaker 1: got completely decimated, you know, in the week two on and.

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Speaker 2: Bucks also had a ton of injuries on both sides

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Speaker 2: of the Yeah.

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Speaker 1: It's you know, you're down twenty six to seven to

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Speaker 1: the Rams, and you know, we know a lot of

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Speaker 1: especially with these veteran coaches, just don't know how to

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Speaker 1: protect weeds these days. And so I'm not gonna give

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Speaker 1: Philly too much credit for that. I did think they

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Speaker 1: should have came into the game, you know, more aggressively,

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Speaker 1: but they got it done. They block a field goal,

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Speaker 1: they take it back for a touchdown, so the Rams

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Speaker 1: don't even cover the three and a half. And it

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Speaker 1: looks like Philadelphia has another you know, sizeable, decently sizable victory.

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Speaker 1: Last week. Yeah, same thing, just not a not a

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Speaker 1: very convincing win over a decimated Bucks team. Guy winning

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Speaker 1: his first game back getting looked quite right, and they

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Speaker 1: targeted him ten times and played him on ninety percent

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Speaker 1: of the snaps. So Denver's just have been the better team,

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Speaker 1: and Denver's had some unlucky breaks. Denver's been taking some

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Speaker 1: risks that maybe they shouldn't have been taking. You know,

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Speaker 1: a lot of downfields throws for Bo Nicks, and questionable

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Speaker 1: play calls for Sean Payton at different times, and just

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Speaker 1: a lot to correct for. Denver finally had a pretty

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Speaker 1: solid all around game against a Cincinnati team that's just

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Speaker 1: kind of down on its luck a little bit. I

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Speaker 1: know you you're kind of want to hop back on now,

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Speaker 1: which we'll talk about. But overall, I can't get away

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Speaker 1: from the fact that Denver's just been a better team.

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Speaker 1: And then you look at underdogs versus undefeated favorites is

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Speaker 1: twenty ten when the dog is under eight points, Sean

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Speaker 1: Payton fifty eight percent in his career as a dog

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Speaker 1: at fifty eight forty two and two against the spread.

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Speaker 1: And again, this is our only luck ranking side of

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Speaker 1: the week, and it is an A graded side, and

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Speaker 1: that's that comes from extensive back testing. We have ABC

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Speaker 1: you know, D grades and uh, you know see as

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Speaker 1: kind of the threshold a very rare, so very good

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Speaker 1: spot I think for Denver love getting the hook in

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Speaker 1: this spot for an Eagles team that I just I'm

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Speaker 1: not convinced they could move the ball consistently h to

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Speaker 1: build margin here to even win this game. I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, Jalen hurts at six yards in attempt. Barkley's

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Speaker 1: not been the same explosive self with the with the

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Speaker 1: runaway explosives runs, and I think that's taken a big toll.

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Speaker 1: And then and then the defensive special teams have just

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Speaker 1: gotten lucky. So yeah, give me the Broncos plus three

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Speaker 1: and a half. Yeah, I agree here.

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Speaker 2: I originally drafted the Broncos, but the dude to a typo,

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Speaker 2: you ended up with him somehow, So hay, because you were.

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Speaker 1: Gonna go I was. I was like, I like the

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Speaker 1: sat this week.

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Speaker 2: Now the line has moved a bunch, but I did

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Speaker 2: play the Saints. I think they win. I mean, this

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Speaker 2: is the first road start for Dart. You know QBS

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Speaker 2: in their first two starts of their career on the

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Speaker 2: road or thirteen and thirty four straight up. There's no

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Speaker 2: neighbors like, so there's no deep there's no deep ball here.

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Speaker 2: They have tape on what they want to do with Dart,

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Speaker 2: which basically run them like, hey, just spy him here.

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Speaker 2: Saints looking for their first win at home. They went

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Speaker 2: to Totoe of the forty nine ers, Tottoe with the Cardinals,

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Speaker 2: Tottoe with the Bills. I mean their defense is twentieth

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Speaker 2: and success rate it's not horrendous. Giants are twenty ninth.

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Speaker 2: The rush d is the key here. The Saints are

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Speaker 2: sixteenth in RUSHYPA on defense, eleventh and success rate. The

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Speaker 2: Giants are dead last in both RUSHYPI and success rate.

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Speaker 2: Two teams that want to run the ball lean on

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Speaker 2: the run. Taysom Hill back, I believe, so believe that though.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I know, I know he's practicing and our guy,

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Speaker 1: our guy de Paying, you know, that's his guy, so

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Speaker 1: he's already picking him up in fantasy. But I mean,

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Speaker 1: this guy is thirty five and just coming off with

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Speaker 1: a cl and what December. I'm just I don't think.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he's not gonna be the every down guy.

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Speaker 2: I'm just saying like he could be used as a

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Speaker 2: gadget here there to like an explosive or you never know,

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Speaker 2: Forrest Morow I maybe he could help this.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Foster, sorry, Tatom Hill will take the Maliki Matavauro

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Speaker 1: and Foster Morole take the Jack stole.

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Speaker 2: So but but Bradler has not been terrible. I mean

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Speaker 2: he's seventeenth success rate, fifteenth, a completion percentage sixteenth to

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Speaker 2: completion percentage over expectation, So he's been Yeah, the termers

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Speaker 2: have killed him. But uh, I just think that this

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Speaker 2: is this is a spot fair.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you talked me off of you talked me

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Speaker 1: off of them, like you know, when I was looking

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Speaker 1: at when I was looking at like it was like

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Speaker 1: Denver Giant, Like once I adjusted for neighbors, it does

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Speaker 1: get kind of shaky. But I still think rat is

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Speaker 1: a little turnover pro and it's hard to like as

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Speaker 1: a favorite. I still may end up fading Spencer Ratt.

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Speaker 1: We'll see the wise U.

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Speaker 2: They can leave on the run in here. That is

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Speaker 2: the clear weakness of this Giants d.

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Speaker 1: Where you where you going with your pick? Though, because

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Speaker 1: we're getting off track here, I.

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Speaker 2: Will say I agree on the Broncos. Okay, Lane Johnson's

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Speaker 2: not healthy. Their offensive line isn't the same. Barkley's ever

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Speaker 2: two point seven yards per carry in the second half

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Speaker 2: last year was six point seven.

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Speaker 1: He ran away from everybody.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the intier offensive line is way worse and they're

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Speaker 2: banged up like certain Hey, he can take away just

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Speaker 2: the only throw that the Eagles had. They run two

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Speaker 2: routes with a J. Brown when they actually throw to them.

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Speaker 2: Good luck against certain and the Broncos are gonna they

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Speaker 2: live in the backfield here. And here's what the Broncos

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Speaker 2: can do on the road. They can lean on the

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Speaker 2: run game. The Eagles defense is significantly worse. This is

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Speaker 2: like an average day. Now. They only have five sacks

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Speaker 2: and four games and the thirtieth in rush success rate.

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Speaker 1: Carter's bang up too, what's that Carter's bang up now took?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Carter is not one hundred percent healthy, so who knows.

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Speaker 2: It looks like he was out there practice. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: the Eagles have been extremely lucky. And by the way,

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Speaker 2: there's gonna be a game where Hirk's turnovers are coming.

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Speaker 2: The last two years, this guy twenty five big time throws,

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Speaker 2: twenty two turnover worthy plays, yet twenty eight touchdowns and

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Speaker 2: six interceptions. Like, there's gonna be a day where turnovers come,

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Speaker 2: and it might be this week. So yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 2: I don't trust this Eagles team to get Margino Verdy one.

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Speaker 2: So I completely agree. But for my first pick and

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Speaker 2: the second overall of the week five Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: I'm going with the Cincinnati Bengals plus ten and a half.

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Speaker 2: This is as it gets. This is your Bilow Cell

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Speaker 2: high spot of the week in my opinion. First, when

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Speaker 2: you look at the lines, yes, they've looked good, but

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Speaker 2: I mean, look at what who they've done against the Bears.

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Speaker 2: Remember they got shut down by the backers in Week one.

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Speaker 2: They played the Bears backup defense at home in a

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Speaker 2: great spot, but they had all those injuries. Then they

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Speaker 2: played the Ravens. Have have you seen the Ravens defense lately?

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Speaker 2: With all those injuries, the Ravens defense is in shambles.

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Speaker 2: And then last week, you know, they get a bunch

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Speaker 2: of turnovers. It's not like their offense lift the world

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Speaker 2: on fire and it's a really good Browns D. But

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Speaker 2: they have benefited from some very fortunate situations over the

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Speaker 2: past few weeks and it might not be as good

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Speaker 2: as it may appear. Meanwhile, the Bengals, I think this

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Speaker 2: has to be close to rock bottom. I mean, and look,

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Speaker 2: they went against Flores and the Vikings in Minnesota, and

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Speaker 2: they went up against this Denver defense in Denver. That's

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Speaker 2: like two of the hardest places to play against two

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Speaker 2: of the hardest defenses to play. I get it's been

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Speaker 2: a mess. Jake Browning's been a mess, but this should

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Speaker 2: be much easier and will look like a much more

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Speaker 2: functional offense at home against the Lions defense that's twenty

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Speaker 2: eighth in pass rush win. Right, They're not just going

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Speaker 2: to be in the backfield immediately. And if there's one

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Speaker 2: thing Browning is consistently done, like we've seen him be

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Speaker 2: a competent backup before him, come in and play. Okay,

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Speaker 2: he's really been good against the blitz and even this

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Speaker 2: year his numbers are good against the blitz and the

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Speaker 2: Lions are blitzing at the highest rate in the league.

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Speaker 2: But most importantly, the Lions are going to be without

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Speaker 2: looks like both of their outside corners, So you have

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Speaker 2: a cluster injury there. I mean, they're probably gonna kick

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Speaker 2: Robertson out at the outside and then rakyas Sin might

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Speaker 2: be starting. Then you're gonna have to You're gonna have

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Speaker 2: to put Maddox Avonte Maddox was awful at slot, or

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Speaker 2: maybe you put Branch down there or vice versa. I

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Speaker 2: don't know. It's a mess. Either way on the outside,

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Speaker 2: and you have Chase and Higgins still, So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think this is way too many points. I get that

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Speaker 2: the Lions cover every single week. I think they're like

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Speaker 2: fifty to twenty one against the spread since twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 2: And I don't know how the Bengals are gonna get stops.

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Speaker 2: Their defense is embarrassing, but I think the Lions. Excuse me,

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Speaker 2: but I think that the Bengals can keep up. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: this is a good Bilo cell high spot for what

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Speaker 2: it's worth. Dogs of seven plus with a three game

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Speaker 2: average scoring margin of worse than minus seventeen or fifty

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Speaker 2: eight percent against the spread Historically, sample size about one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty games. Home dogs a ten plus just

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Speaker 2: basic home dogs of ten plus seventy four fifty six

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Speaker 2: and one against the spread fifty seven percent when they're

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Speaker 2: off of a loss of fourteen or more points. Sixty

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00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:11,600
Speaker 2: percent home dogs after scoring three or fewer points. That's

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Speaker 2: who wants to bet them. I mean, usually means it's

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Speaker 2: not a great team and everyone just saw them score

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Speaker 2: three points or fewer. Sixty one, thirty six and two

290
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Speaker 2: against the spread over the past twenty years, sixty three

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Speaker 2: percent and just this decade alone, seven plus point home dogs,

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Speaker 2: seventy one, forty six and three against the spread. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I just I uh, I can't get to this number

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Speaker 2: number one. It'll be easier for Browning here, not going

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Speaker 2: up against as the lead of a pass rush. The

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Speaker 2: Lions have cornerback injuries against one of the best wide

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Speaker 2: receiver duos in the league. The only thing scares me

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Speaker 2: is like the Bengals quit, like they look like they

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Speaker 2: quit in that game against the Broncos. But this is

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Speaker 2: the NFL Team's not going to quit at home. They're

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Speaker 2: still two and two. You know, Lions, I think are

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Speaker 2: close to the peak. Have benefited from states some things recently,

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Speaker 2: have the Chiefs on maybe a little bit of a

304
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Speaker 2: sleepy spot. So yeah, give me the Bengals catching ten

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Speaker 2: and a half. This line has gone way too far.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the Lions were just ten point favorites at

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Speaker 2: home against Flacco. I mean now on the road against Cincy,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I guess I get that the Bengals have

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Speaker 2: a terrible ding and the Browns have a good one,

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Speaker 2: but the Bengals at least have weapons on the outside.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, so I think there's too many points, give

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Speaker 2: me the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll probably be with you on this one. This

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Speaker 1: is I think with the Lions. It's the one where

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Speaker 1: the one worried with the Bengals is is just the turnovers.

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Speaker 1: But you look at who they played, and Minnesota statistically

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Speaker 1: is what the best defense in the league, and the

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Speaker 1: Broncos are top five, So.

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Speaker 2: Both of them are like top top two or three

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Speaker 2: in pressure eight.

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Speaker 1: Right, So you know, for a guy like Browning, if

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Speaker 1: he's going to struggle because he is a backup for

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Speaker 1: a reason, he's gonna struggle in those spots, and you know,

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Speaker 1: playing this Lions team and you know, making the Lions

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Speaker 1: go out doors, you know, this is not a This

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Speaker 1: is not just another one of those home home games

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Speaker 1: that they could just kind of go crazy with the

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Speaker 1: with the scoring, which they will they'll do. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: I agree, I think there's everything's kind of pointing towards

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Speaker 1: this is not going to be as easy for the

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Speaker 1: lines and not as difficult for the Bengals. So I'll

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Speaker 1: probably be with you on this one.

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Speaker 3: I like that.

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Speaker 1: Okay, for my second pick, the third overall of the week,

335
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Speaker 1: number five Sunny six Pack, I'm going with the Las

336
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:37,280
Speaker 1: Vegas Raiders plus seven the Indianapolis Colts. Defensively, it's surprisingly enough.

337
00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:40,160
Speaker 1: You look at the metrics, these teams have been about

338
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Speaker 1: equal defensive EPA for play Coats of thirteenth, Raiders of

339
00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:49,400
Speaker 1: fifteenth success rate. Raiders on defensive fifteenth Coats are way

340
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Speaker 1: down at twenty fifth. Offensively, it's where you know, the

341
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Speaker 1: Raiders have been turning the ball over. They've been struggling, unfortunately.

342
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Speaker 1: One thing I don't like about this spot is is

343
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Speaker 1: you know they're tackle for the Raiders on Miller just

344
00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:07,000
Speaker 1: went on ir But yeah, all that being said, I

345
00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:09,400
Speaker 1: still think the Raiders are a bit undervalued on offense.

346
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Speaker 1: I still think that the Colts offensively have some regression.

347
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Speaker 1: They've had the third few ties for the third fewist

348
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Speaker 1: drives in the league, and then their tops in scoring

349
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Speaker 1: raid at over sixty percent, which is just tough to

350
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Speaker 1: sustain over over a full season. And you know, we're

351
00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,320
Speaker 1: starting to see some of the cracks with Daniel Jones,

352
00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:30,479
Speaker 1: you know, not being able to consistently use his legs,

353
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Speaker 1: and you know the turnover started coming. And for when

354
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,840
Speaker 1: you're going up against this Raider d again, it's they've

355
00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:39,679
Speaker 1: somehow cobbled together a decent defense. I think, you know,

356
00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:42,920
Speaker 1: we both like Patrick Graham and he's he was kind

357
00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:46,400
Speaker 1: of a holdover from the last regime. But I got

358
00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:48,720
Speaker 1: the defense plan I think above their talent level even

359
00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,439
Speaker 1: so that's a good sign. But also, you know, Pete Carroll,

360
00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:55,359
Speaker 1: this is this is still a veteran coaching staff, and

361
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,760
Speaker 1: I think that's what should help a little bit in

362
00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:00,639
Speaker 1: this spot. And I still think Daniel Jones has some

363
00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:03,439
Speaker 1: more aggression because you look at him and he's in

364
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:06,280
Speaker 1: terms of throwing to his first read. This is a

365
00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:08,400
Speaker 1: credit to Stiching, but you know, in terms of throwing

366
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,159
Speaker 1: to his first read, he's near the top of the league.

367
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:12,960
Speaker 1: And I just think over a full season you start

368
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,600
Speaker 1: to that starts to become more and more difficult. And

369
00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:17,720
Speaker 1: this Raider defense, as one that tends to be a

370
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:21,359
Speaker 1: little bit better scheming than people think, is one that

371
00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:23,160
Speaker 1: I think could make him pay. And then you mentioned

372
00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:26,159
Speaker 1: it the Raiders they got unlucky to just turn the

373
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:30,120
Speaker 1: ball over numerous times in scoring position last week. That

374
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,840
Speaker 1: final score could have been a lot different. You know,

375
00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:35,000
Speaker 1: even the Chargers final score two weeks ago could have

376
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:38,080
Speaker 1: been a lot different when they lost twenty to nine.

377
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:40,600
Speaker 1: But overall, I think this Raider team is competitive. I

378
00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:43,399
Speaker 1: don't think this coach team is good enough to be

379
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:46,960
Speaker 1: a seven point favorite here, even at home. Can't get

380
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,520
Speaker 1: to this number. Carol off a multi game losing streak

381
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:52,680
Speaker 1: for what it's worth, twenty three six and one against

382
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:56,920
Speaker 1: the spread, seventy nine percent over a thirty game sample.

383
00:19:57,080 --> 00:20:00,400
Speaker 1: So and some of those were in fact with the Geno. So, yeah,

384
00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:04,280
Speaker 1: give me the Las Vegas Raiders.

385
00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean my numbers that should join you. Maybe

386
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,919
Speaker 2: I will, But I mean Gino has been a mess,

387
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:14,119
Speaker 2: and part of that is the offensive line has been

388
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:19,480
Speaker 2: a mess, and that has hurt the run game. It's

389
00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 2: and I don't think they're gonna be able to take

390
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:23,919
Speaker 2: the Bear's front is so bad and their defense is

391
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 2: so beat up. I don't think they're gonna be able

392
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:27,400
Speaker 2: to have a lot of success running the ball here.

393
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 2: I just can't figure out why Geno, Like, it's unbelievable

394
00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:33,720
Speaker 2: how bad he's looked. And now you don't have your

395
00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:37,080
Speaker 2: left tackle, who's by far your best offensive lineman, one

396
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,639
Speaker 2: of the better left tackles in the NFL and one

397
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 2: of the most underrated. Like you you know, he's playing

398
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 2: indoors against like backup defensive backs, throwing some of the

399
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:51,560
Speaker 2: worst picks you'll ever see. I just can't figure out

400
00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:56,360
Speaker 2: why he looks so bad. I mean, it's it's horrendous.

401
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:58,680
Speaker 2: Kenny Moore might not go for the Colts, which is big.

402
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:02,440
Speaker 2: Didn't practice again day, Eric Stokes as bad as he is,

403
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,399
Speaker 2: he's important to the Raiders. It looks like he should

404
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 2: be okay this week because their their depth isn't great.

405
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:10,879
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, this is a huge upgrade for

406
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:15,600
Speaker 2: the Colts, saying that they're like the I mean this

407
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:19,679
Speaker 2: much better than the Raiders. This pretty wild adjustment. So

408
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 2: my numbers would agree with you. It's Raiders or nothing.

409
00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:24,439
Speaker 2: But the Miller injury and how bad Gino has looked,

410
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 2: and you still can't really trust this Raiders defense on

411
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:32,640
Speaker 2: the back end consistently. And if Gino's not gonna play

412
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 2: any better, they're not gonna be able.

413
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:34,199
Speaker 1: To keep up.

414
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:36,080
Speaker 2: Because the Colts they have a lot of weapons. It

415
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,399
Speaker 2: looks like alf Pierce will be back on Calvis like

416
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 2: there their offense regardless, I do think there's some regression

417
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 2: in the cards, but their offense is gonna put up points.

418
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 2: And if you know, doesn't play better, and if the

419
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,639
Speaker 2: offense line it's even worse about Miller, Oh yikes, but

420
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:52,879
Speaker 2: it's I would agree, it's either Raiders or nothing.

421
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 1: All right.

422
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 2: For my second pick and the fourth overall of the

423
00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 2: week five, I've Sunday six pack. I'm going with the

424
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:10,719
Speaker 2: New York Football Jets. It's our best out there. Two

425
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:12,880
Speaker 2: and a half doesn't matter for the contest.

426
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:13,800
Speaker 1: But it should be two and a half.

427
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:18,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, plus two and a half against the Cowboys.

428
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 1: If you.

429
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 2: Haven't bet this yet, wait a little bit. You can

430
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 2: get a cheat, really cheap two and a half, but

431
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 2: you might as well wait to see if you can

432
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,879
Speaker 2: get a three even a you know, three minus one

433
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 2: twenty at some point. But I I like the Jets here.

434
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,640
Speaker 2: First of all, the Jets should be two and two.

435
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 2: These teams have played similar strengths of schedules, by the way,

436
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 2: and the Jets have a better yards for playing margin.

437
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 2: But they had a fluky loss against the Steelers last week.

438
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:49,960
Speaker 2: Was you want to talk about a flukey loss? What

439
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 2: do they have? They had about a net fifteen percent

440
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:58,119
Speaker 2: success rate in that game. How did they lose? Well?

441
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 2: Number one penalties we had let's see this they had

442
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 2: thirteen penalties for one hundred and one yards. They lost

443
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 2: a turnover battle three to nothing, including two fumbles won

444
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:17,439
Speaker 2: by the goal line. They outgained the Dolphins four oh

445
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 2: four to three hundred. They should have won that game,

446
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 2: so they should be two and two. Cowboys, by the way,

447
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 2: are coming off of just a huge emotional effort at

448
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 2: home against the Packers and Parsons return. And by the way,

449
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 2: the defenses on the field, some of those guys are

450
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 2: on the field for eighty five plays in an overtime game.

451
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 2: Usually see the effects of that on the defensive side

452
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 2: of the ball the next week. It's a super super

453
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 2: super super small sample size, but road favorites after a tie,

454
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 2: so when the team plays the full full possible, the

455
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:54,160
Speaker 2: most amount of minutes you can post play, road favorites

456
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,640
Speaker 2: after their tire are just zero to four against the spread.

457
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 2: They're failing to cover by about seventeen points per game,

458
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 2: so they haven't even been close the next week. Fields

459
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 2: this year has been so much better against zone six

460
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 2: yards per dropback vers soone he's only four First man, Well,

461
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 2: the Cowboys are running the least amount of man in

462
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 2: the league, like six percent man coverage. This defense is

463
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 2: a joke. The Jets should be able to run it.

464
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 2: And by the way, that's it's the worst pass defense

465
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 2: in the league, so it's uh. The Jets should get

466
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,119
Speaker 2: their run game going. Field should have success through the

467
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 2: air like Fields with his legs. This Cowboys defense is horrendous.

468
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 2: I'm getting them outdoors here too. We saw with their

469
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 2: their offense, it just didn't look the same against a

470
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 2: Bear's secondary with all backups, and you saw the loss

471
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 2: of ced Lamb and Turpin now is hurt and might

472
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,479
Speaker 2: not go. That's big, especially against the Jets. Team likes

473
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 2: to run a lot of man and Turpin has been

474
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 2: very good against men in his career. So yeah, I

475
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 2: don't trust this cow team one bit. Dak Prescott's playing

476
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:03,880
Speaker 2: really well, but the offensive line isn't healthy. Like I mentioned,

477
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:05,359
Speaker 2: there's no CD Lamb. This is still one of the

478
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,640
Speaker 2: worst defenses in the league. Jets have been fairly unlucky

479
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 2: oh and four going for their first win. For what

480
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 2: it's worth, teams that are owing four worse facing a

481
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 2: team that is five hundred or worse in the season

482
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 2: or sixty seven percent against the spread over the past

483
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,639
Speaker 2: ten years. So yeah, I think this is more of

484
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 2: a coin flip game, and I don't see why the

485
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,400
Speaker 2: Jets offense shouldn't have success. The Jets defense isn't anything

486
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 2: the Rite Home about. But with no Lamb, maybe Jermaine

487
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 2: Johnson coming back outdoors at home give me the points

488
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 2: here in a game that I think is I make

489
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 2: basically around a pick.

490
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Jets look better, like when you just the

491
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 1: eye test even they look better, and then you look

492
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 1: up and there's still just owing four. It's like, at

493
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,120
Speaker 1: some point, I think things got to aggress that. Yeah,

494
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:57,120
Speaker 1: cowboys going, cowboys going outdoors in this spot when they're

495
00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 1: they've really just been relying on their offense. I think

496
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:00,959
Speaker 1: that's at some point that's got to slow down too.

497
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 1: I know they put up a great game against a

498
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 1: good defense.

499
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 2: I mean, look what happened in Chicago in Chicago's d No.

500
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,719
Speaker 1: One right, Yeah, yeah, yeah, some of these scenes are

501
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 1: just going to be Jacko and Hyde Home Road and

502
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 1: I and MetLife. It's not an easy place to play

503
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 1: if you're not you're not used to it. So yeah,

504
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,160
Speaker 1: I like that as well. I'll talk talk about probably

505
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 1: revisit that in a bit when we get to our

506
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:25,160
Speaker 1: moneyline Dog segment. But before we get to our last

507
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 1: two picks, I don't forget to upgrade to an Action

508
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Speaker 1: Pro subscription. It is the only way to get real

509
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511
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Speaker 1: Action Network podcast is sponsored by DraftKings and in partnership

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Speaker 1: with DraftKings, we'd like to tell you that the next

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Speaker 1: great touchdown is coming and you can bet on it

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529
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 1: The crown is yours for my third pick and the

530
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 1: fifth overall of the week five Sunday six pack. I

531
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 1: am going with the caroline of Panthers at home plus

532
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:04,399
Speaker 1: one and a half against the Miami Dolphins, and I

533
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 1: know the Dolphins finally got their first win. I think

534
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:10,120
Speaker 1: this is a bit of an overreaction. Panthers got blown out.

535
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 2: We just talked about Floki. That was for the Yeah,

536
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:14,360
Speaker 2: Dolphins too, they should.

537
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 1: Have lost exactly. The Dolphins have been terrible this year

538
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:21,640
Speaker 1: and it's been easy to see covering now. The Panthers

539
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 1: have also been generally terrible. But the one thing about

540
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 1: the Panthers is some areas that they haven't been completely terrible.

541
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:31,479
Speaker 1: And I know the score probably makes it worse than

542
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 1: it is last week, but uh, defensively they've been decent

543
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 1: at times, and especially at home. We saw remember the

544
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 1: shutout of the Falcons defensive success rate. Yeah, they're eighth

545
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 1: in defensive success rate Miami dead last, dead last, even

546
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 1: early downs because you know, throw out some of the

547
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 1: noise early downs more predictive. Carolina Knights, Miami thirty first. Uh, EPA,

548
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 1: that's where Carolina is nineteenth, Miami thirty first. So either

549
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 1: way you look at it, the sizeable gap defensively for

550
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 1: this Panther team and then offensively both not great now

551
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 1: Caroline's twenty fourth and EPA Miami's twentieth. But I don't

552
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 1: think Darren Waller makes up for the loss of Tyreek

553
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 1: Hill because Tyreek Hill is what makes is what opens

554
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 1: things up for the rest of the offense. Losing him

555
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 1: is a brutal injury on a short week going on

556
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 1: the road. Now Waller, I know he came back, got

557
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 1: the two touchdowns, he only ran a route on about

558
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 1: thirty six percent thirty five thirty six percent of the dropbacks,

559
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 1: so his production likely unsustainable going forward. And again it's

560
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 1: just not going to replace the loss of Tyreek Hill.

561
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 1: So I just think these are two bad teams at

562
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 1: this point. But the Panthers going back home facing the

563
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 1: Dolphins on a short week, a Dolphins team that's just

564
00:29:57,880 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 1: the only team they outgained was the Patriots and it

565
00:29:59,920 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 1: was by twenty five yards. On the season, they've just

566
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 1: been just brutally outgained. I think it's up, yeah, almost.

567
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 1: They've been not gating by almost four hundred yards through

568
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 1: four weeks, by about three seventy total. And that's without

569
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 1: gaining the Patriots in one of their games by about

570
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 1: twenty five. So with Tyreek Hill and with Tyreek Hill,

571
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 1: to is regressed. You know, everyone wants to talk about

572
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 1: Bryce Young.

573
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 4: And maybe the more Andy Dalton we see it, could

574
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 4: you know, the better, honestly, I think, but To is

575
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 4: regressed now he's not gonna have Tyreek and we know,

576
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 4: you know, these guys like Shanahan McDaniel, they kind of

577
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 4: get stuck sometimes when you know their key guys are

578
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 4: out on offense.

579
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:44,920
Speaker 1: Then they got to kind of build a whole new offense.

580
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 1: And all their schemes are kind of related to these

581
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 1: you know, oh these this guy opening this up for

582
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 1: this guy and this and and we've already seen McDaniel's

583
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 1: scheme just kind of nose dive and that started back

584
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two. And the one thing I think

585
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 1: I've we've talked about before is the real place that

586
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 1: I've seen McDaniel scheme kind of suffer. Is they started

587
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 1: taking away the throwing lanes for Wattle and Wattle you

588
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 1: know last year he didn't really bounce back. It was

589
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 1: it was a lot of John new Smith. It was

590
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 1: a chan you know, Tyreek, I know had the down year,

591
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 1: but Wattle now is the number one receiver. I don't

592
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 1: think this is a good spot for them on a

593
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 1: short week at all, especially with the you know Waller,

594
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 1: who knows how up to speed he's gonna be. Is

595
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 1: he going to be able to give them even what

596
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 1: John who gave I don't know. So yeah, give me

597
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:37,040
Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers here. I like the spot too. If

598
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 1: you look at teams dogs, specifically coming off a loss

599
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 1: of twenty plus in a game in which they allowed

600
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 1: forty plus which happened last week against the Patriots since

601
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 1: two thousand and three, ninety eight and eight against the

602
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 1: spread fifty nine percent for fourteen percent ROI so like

603
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 1: the Panthers, don't think they should be home dogs spot.

604
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: At worst, it should be a pick them. But I mean, look,

605
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 1: the more you look get to the Tyreek Hill injury

606
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 1: just not a good not a good spot on a

607
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 1: short week for Miami going on the road.

608
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I played the I played the Panthers. This would

609
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 2: have been one of my picks. Just to simplify that

610
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 2: stat just dogs have off a loss of more than

611
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 2: four touchdowns or sixty percent against the spreader over the

612
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 2: last thirty years, and that just speaks to by low nature.

613
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 2: It's a week the week league. And by the way,

614
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 2: the Dolphins had a flukey win the Panthers and I

615
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 2: faded them last week. They were pretty unlucky. I mean,

616
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:34,719
Speaker 2: a lot of that game is due to term special teams,

617
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 2: but they were negative eight they were minus eighteen and

618
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:38,720
Speaker 2: special teams. In the first tap you have basically two

619
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 2: touchdowns on punts and then they missed the field goal

620
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 2: an extra point. They actually outgained the Patriots last week.

621
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 2: And as you mentioned, their defense has been feisty. They

622
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 2: play structurally with their zones, the defense that you want

623
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 2: to play against this Miami offense, and I mean they're

624
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 2: not getting any pressure, but they can slow down Miami.

625
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 2: And Miami's offensive line is atrocious, so they're not going

626
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 2: to be able to just fully take advantage of line

627
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 2: this deficiencies, and they're rundy, but their defense is playing

628
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 2: better than the Miami day. The Miami d' is a

629
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 2: mess to set. One of the worst secondaries, if not

630
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 2: the worst secondary in the league. Their their strength is

631
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 2: supposed to be the pass rush. No, not there, so

632
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 2: they're trying to make up for it with the blitz.

633
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 2: They're blitzing one of the highest rates in the league.

634
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 2: But Bryce Young so far to start his career over

635
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 2: the past year and change, has been very good against

636
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 2: the blitz. That's one of his strengths. So I have

637
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 2: confidence that he can make enough plays against this pitiful secondary.

638
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 2: And I get that there's injuries. Maybe we'll get some

639
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 2: more Jimmy Horn and at the wide receiver position. But

640
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 2: there are two of their guys are on the offense

641
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 2: line that I was really worried about. But Brady Christensen

642
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 2: looked really good last week at guard and Cade Mays

643
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 2: has looked good at center, so and their other offensive

644
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 2: line positions are solidified, so I think they're okay there.

645
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 2: I mean, this dophense seem one of the worst offensive lines,

646
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 2: one of the worst defenses. What do they have going

647
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,520
Speaker 2: for it? It's like McDaniel Colin plays to Tyreek and

648
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 2: Waddell Now you don't have Tyreek. It's like this is

649
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,479
Speaker 2: a pathetic team on the road a short week following

650
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 2: two divisional games in a fluky win kind of a

651
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:12,279
Speaker 2: sleepy spot too, So yeah give me. I like the

652
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 2: Panthers as well. For my third pick and the sixth

653
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 2: and final overall of the week five Sunday six pack,

654
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 2: I'm going with the Cleveland Browns plus four and a

655
00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:30,360
Speaker 2: half against the Minnesota Vikings. This game is in London.

656
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 2: The spot is not ideal. You have you know, you're

657
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:36,880
Speaker 2: going overseas, and you're making a quarterback change to a

658
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 2: rookie against a Brian Floyd's defense and a Vikings seamen's

659
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 2: already overseas. Obviously not great. I give the Vikings about

660
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 2: a half point for that. But what also isn't great

661
00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:53,040
Speaker 2: is the Vikings offensive line situation probably gonna be without

662
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 2: three starters up front, and you're talking backups who cannot play,

663
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,959
Speaker 2: and you're going up against a Brown defense that's number

664
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 2: one in run block win right, number one in patch

665
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 2: block win rate, number one in pressure rate, like and

666
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 2: you have Carson Wentz back there, who is has a

667
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:13,440
Speaker 2: thirty percent pressure to sack rate, ten percent turnover worthy

668
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 2: play rate just locks onto his first raad and then

669
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 2: nothing else. I mean, Browns are gonna play Man on

670
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:23,160
Speaker 2: the outside and they're gonna get pressure almost immediately. And

671
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:26,359
Speaker 2: what's the recourse for Wentz throw picks gets stripped that

672
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:29,360
Speaker 2: you can't you can't even run on the Browns. So

673
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:32,319
Speaker 2: I just don't know how this Vikings offense is gonna

674
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 2: look functional on the other side. Okay, what are the

675
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 2: Browns gonna do? Yeah, it's not pretty against the Floyer's defense,

676
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,359
Speaker 2: but they can run the ball. That's they're gonna do here.

677
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:42,800
Speaker 2: Like I don't know what do you hand of the

678
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 2: Judkins thirty times the Browns. The Vikings are twenty six

679
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:50,239
Speaker 2: and rush epa twentieth and rush success rate. That's where

680
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:52,720
Speaker 2: their weakness is. They miss play Cashman in the runde.

681
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 2: They also miss Van Ginkel Dallas Turners a big drop

682
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 2: off there. I don't think Van Ginkle's gonna play Cashman's

683
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 2: on ir, So you don't want obviously, you don't want

684
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 2: Gabriel in his first start dropping back and trying to

685
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,839
Speaker 2: throw over this Flores defense. So I'm either gonna lie

686
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:10,960
Speaker 2: on the run rely on their defense. There's a totals

687
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 2: at thirty six. This game could this game could easily

688
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 2: end like seven to six, and I wouldn't be surprised.

689
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 2: But Gabriel, like Flakhel, was playing so bad, like there's

690
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,840
Speaker 2: just nothing you could do. The riders ers weren't getting separation.

691
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 2: The tackle situation isn't great. There's wide receiver injuries. I

692
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 2: get that, but they can roll them out. They can

693
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:29,800
Speaker 2: boot him a little bit, he can use his legs,

694
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 2: but they're just gonna run, run, run, And I will

695
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:36,319
Speaker 2: say the one very good thing that Gabriel was known

696
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 2: for in college was his numbers against the Blitz. And

697
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:42,360
Speaker 2: you know you're gonna get the blitz against Flores. Gabriel

698
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 2: in college was unblievable against the Blitz. Sixty three touchdowns

699
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 2: and seven interceptions against the Blitz nine to one ratio.

700
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 2: When he wasn't blitzed by the way, ninety two touchdowns

701
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:56,280
Speaker 2: at twenty five interceptions, three and a half to one ratio.

702
00:36:56,600 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 2: He's always handled the Blitz well, He's always just maintain poison.

703
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:03,640
Speaker 2: This is all gonna be like, hey, short, this is

704
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:05,200
Speaker 2: your this is where you're gonna go with the ball

705
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 2: if not get rid of it. And I'm telling you

706
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 2: they're gonna rely on the run here, They're gonna rely

707
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 2: on their defense. They're not gonna put Gabriel in compromising situations.

708
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,680
Speaker 2: And how are the Vikings moving the ball? I don't

709
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 2: know so, and I trust in a game where you

710
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 2: want to have a run to run the ball, I

711
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,400
Speaker 2: trust the Browns rushing offense, and Judkins has been good

712
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 2: against heavy boxes as well. I trust the Browns rushing

713
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:35,839
Speaker 2: offense over the Vikings against their counterpart. So, yeah, it's

714
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 2: risky because you got a rookie quarterback, but with a

715
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 2: total list low and some of the advantages of the

716
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 2: Browns defense should have, I got to take the four

717
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:46,760
Speaker 2: and a half, So give me the points with the Browns.

718
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:50,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, the more I look at this, it does look

719
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:52,399
Speaker 1: like a seven to six type of game. I mean

720
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 1: the Browns. The thing about the Browns is, as good

721
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:59,319
Speaker 1: as they've been defensively, they don't have the DNA of

722
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:01,960
Speaker 1: or at least they didn't have the DNA of like

723
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 1: a defensive first kind of team, like they were throwing

724
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,840
Speaker 1: the ball forty plus times a game with Flacco. You know,

725
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 1: Judkins really didn't get worked into the game plan until

726
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 1: week three. I know he was back a week before that.

727
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 2: But yeah, last week they finally had like the rush

728
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:17,359
Speaker 2: rate over expectation was pretty high, and it's only gonna

729
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 2: get higher this week, I think, which is what you

730
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 2: want to do to marry it with this defense.

731
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 1: Yeah it's the brown Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think I'm

732
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:27,440
Speaker 1: actually gonna I'm gonna revisit this game too in a

733
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 1: future segment. I think I'm gonna pivot from from something else.

734
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 1: So yeah, like this one. Uh, you know, Gabriel, I

735
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 1: think the jury is still out on him, but like

736
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 1: you said, good good, good, good news that he's playing

737
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:42,799
Speaker 1: well against the Blitz, and I just don't think they'll

738
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 1: put him in that many situations in the Vikings. You know,

739
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 1: I didn't. Of course I picked the one time to

740
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 1: fade to to not to fade the Vikings and they

741
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 1: just blow out Browning. But overall, I think what I

742
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 1: was kind of alluding to was, you know, it is

743
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 1: turning out to be corrected. Kevin O'Connell is not just

744
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:05,080
Speaker 1: like this god with this MICUs touched you know, like

745
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 1: there are issues with this, uh, with this Vikings offense

746
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:12,280
Speaker 1: and this especially when you don't have your offensive line.

747
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 1: You know, Addison is not going to change that. Wentz

748
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:17,319
Speaker 1: is not going to change that. Uh. And I think

749
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,399
Speaker 1: this Browns defense, you don't want to have cluster against

750
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 1: the bron Yeah, exactly. And so and yeah, Graham's playing well, Garrett, Yeah.

751
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 2: I I Colin, He's playing really well.

752
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 1: Yeah. Man, it's not going to be easy. And I

753
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:32,719
Speaker 1: mean after last week, I mean they you know, what

754
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:34,919
Speaker 1: was the issue for the for the Vikings last week?

755
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,840
Speaker 1: They got behind, right, So maybe you see a little

756
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 1: bit of a maybe you don't see as an aggressive

757
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 1: of a game plan for Forrest. Maybe you try to

758
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:43,919
Speaker 1: maybe both teams just try to keep it a little

759
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 1: within themselves here, because you know, if the if the

760
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:50,600
Speaker 1: Vikings don't go behind, what if twenty one seven something

761
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 1: like that, you know they probably have a chance to

762
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:54,479
Speaker 1: win that game. It's just they let Metcalf run away

763
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 1: from them. And so yeah, maybe you see uh yeah,

764
00:39:57,320 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 1: I think overall this is just everything sets up for

765
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:03,680
Speaker 1: Cleeveland because it should be a very very low scoring game.

766
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:05,279
Speaker 2: Four and a half is gonna feel like ten when

767
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 2: you're watching this game. That's all I'm saying.

768
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's the more I look at this, yeah it is. Yeah,

769
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 1: all right, So that's our six back. We got Recap,

770
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 1: I got Denver, Vegas and Carolina. So that's Bo Nicks,

771
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 1: Gino Smith, and Bryce Young. Yeah, and somehow I'm worse.

772
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:31,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, he had since he since the Browning, Gabriel and Fields.

773
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that is that's six and oh sounds like

774
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:37,400
Speaker 1: six and oh to me, all right, that is our

775
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 1: NFL Week five, Sunday six back. Now it's time for

776
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 1: our coaches pep talk.

777
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 3: Uniquely trained and highly motivated, a specialist without equal immune

778
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 3: to any countermeasures. There is no secret. He cannot extract,

779
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 3: no security, he cannot breach, no person he cannot become.

780
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:56,239
Speaker 3: He has most likely anticipated this very conversation and is

781
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:59,240
Speaker 3: waiting to strike him whatever direction we move, the living

782
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,399
Speaker 3: man of the state of Destiny, and he has made

783
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 3: you his mission.

784
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 1: This week's coaches pep Talk comes to us from Alt

785
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 1: Baldwin's character and mission impossible, a rogue nation, and we're

786
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:18,680
Speaker 1: going to dedicate it to the Jets. Jets. Yeah, yeah,

787
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 1: we'll dedicate to the Jets. They're owned for. They know

788
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 1: what a time it is? All right, favorite total of

789
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:27,319
Speaker 1: the week's stuff. Where you're going?

790
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:29,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, last week we got there by the hook with

791
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 2: the Browns Lions under this week, I'm gonna go Broncos

792
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 2: Eagles under forty three and a half. Already talked about

793
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 2: this game. I just think the Bronco's gonna go run

794
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:45,400
Speaker 2: heavy here, could control the clock, rely on their defense.

795
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 2: I don't trust this Eagles offense to do much of anything,

796
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 2: so their defense is obviously isn't bad. I don't think

797
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 2: that they're going to get ripped a party. I think

798
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:56,320
Speaker 2: this is a lower scoring game that ends like I

799
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 2: don't know, we'll call it twenty seventeen. Eagles probably win

800
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 2: on a blocked field goal at the bell or something.

801
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:05,719
Speaker 2: Uh So, yeah, give me the give me the Broncos

802
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:06,439
Speaker 2: Eagles under.

803
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:10,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it. I think this is I think

804
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 1: this is that's the that's the script for this one.

805
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 1: Eagles just have some I think more aggression scoring wise

806
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:21,080
Speaker 1: to go. Uh it's gonna go for mine with Houston Baltimore.

807
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:23,879
Speaker 2: But I don't bet that game.

808
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:26,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I'm saying there's a lot of question marks

809
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:27,480
Speaker 1: we're recording.

810
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 2: I don't know who's playing for the Ravens.

811
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 1: And the Ravens defense has has been terrible. I mean,

812
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 1: Houston offense has been terrible, but they are. I mean,

813
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:36,799
Speaker 1: what do you mark? Yeah, I like I like that.

814
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:38,719
Speaker 1: I like I like them going to Mars Moore. I

815
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:40,920
Speaker 1: think he might be the true featured back this week,

816
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 1: because you know, it was kind of still a committee

817
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 1: a little bit last week. So what I'm going when

818
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:48,440
Speaker 1: I pivoted to uh, you know, as I as I

819
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 1: started hearing you break down this Cleveland Minnesota game, everything

820
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:55,479
Speaker 1: that I kind of thought about Cleveland and just there

821
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:58,880
Speaker 1: the way they're kind of not playing complimentary football with

822
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:02,080
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco, you know, on offense. I think that could

823
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 1: change here with you know the fact that they have

824
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 1: Judkins and the fact that they're starting a rookie. So

825
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take this under thirty six and a half.

826
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:09,880
Speaker 1: You know the fact that it hasn't even gotten you know,

827
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 1: I don't even see a thirty seven out there. In fact,

828
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:15,000
Speaker 1: it's going down. So you know, when when thirty seven

829
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:17,840
Speaker 1: is kind of a key number twenty seventeen type of situation,

830
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 1: when you're already below that, that tells you that it's

831
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 1: it's just outside the like the standard deviation. It's one

832
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:26,960
Speaker 1: of those model breaking totals. I totally agree with you.

833
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 1: I think this could be a seven to six game.

834
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:31,759
Speaker 1: I think I think the Vikings may actually not It.

835
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 2: Could be like zero zero at the half as well.

836
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:35,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't. I don't think the Vikings are going

837
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:37,280
Speaker 1: to be quite as aggressive here because they don't feel

838
00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 1: like they have to be. Maybe Gabriel could pick up

839
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:42,240
Speaker 1: the blitz, but more than likely they're just the Browns

840
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:45,719
Speaker 1: just aren't throwing forty times a game. And with that

841
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:48,920
Speaker 1: came you know, so many incompletions and stoppages and for

842
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:52,360
Speaker 1: the Browns game to still get there last week with

843
00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 1: you know what was that indoors in Detroit kind of

844
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 1: says a lot about.

845
00:43:57,440 --> 00:43:59,760
Speaker 2: The three turnovers one like a pick that was returned

846
00:43:59,760 --> 00:43:59,920
Speaker 2: to the.

847
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:02,640
Speaker 1: Oh my god, that pop five at third base, that

848
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:06,360
Speaker 1: that sets Faco through. Yeah. So yeah, these are the

849
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 1: brown scores this year. Uh, sixth seventeen, sixteen, forty one,

850
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 1: seventeen at the Ravens. Then they won thirteen ten against

851
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 1: Green Bay, and then they lost thirty four ten at Detroit.

852
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 5: So they can't score more than seventeen, right, and they

853
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 5: only give up more than seventeen when it's when it's

854
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 5: like a powerhouse, like the Ravens scored forty one in

855
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 5: Baltimore and defensive scores, and there's a bunch of different

856
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:30,799
Speaker 5: scores in there, so like, I think they can hold

857
00:44:30,800 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 5: the the Vikings to under seventeen here too.

858
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the Vicns. I mean it is a rookie quarterback.

859
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:38,920
Speaker 1: Maybe the Vicons do get a defensive score, but I

860
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:41,799
Speaker 1: think I think there's still some margin even if they do,

861
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:45,840
Speaker 1: because yeah, I don't not not confident in Carson Wentz

862
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 1: and by this offensive line. And I think the Vikings

863
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:50,840
Speaker 1: are gonna say, hey, we're starting against a rookie quarterback.

864
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 1: The game got away from us last week. Let's run

865
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 1: the ball at least let's try to. You know, Scott

866
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:57,879
Speaker 1: has with decent Mason's a good back, and.

867
00:44:57,920 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 2: You don't want to lose the game. Thing my garret

868
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 2: stripping you and causing turnovers.

869
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:04,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, so yeah, I think both of these teams,

870
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:06,759
Speaker 1: it just kind of plays into the under here. So yeah,

871
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 1: give me the under thirty six and a half. I

872
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:11,919
Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna get to thirty seven again. Again.

873
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:14,919
Speaker 1: I see you going down more than up, So you know, maybe, wait,

874
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 1: totals are weird. It is a prime it is an

875
00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:20,160
Speaker 1: island game. Maybe you get some super weight action and

876
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:24,040
Speaker 1: it just balloons up. But most most likely it's the

877
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:27,440
Speaker 1: highest it's going to get. Okay, So yeah, Philly, Denver

878
00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 1: under for Stuck, Vikings, Browns under for me. Let's go

879
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:33,880
Speaker 1: to our money line underdog parlay.

880
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

881
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 1: It's time for the money line parlay. Stuck, where you're

882
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:44,800
Speaker 1: going for this one?

883
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:50,759
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the Commanders against the Chargers. This

884
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:54,359
Speaker 2: is just the Ravens game is a super uncertain, uncertain game.

885
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:57,759
Speaker 2: Like I made it ten before last week. If the

886
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 2: Ravens were fully healthy, you take all the injuries on defense,

887
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 2: like they could be about six or seven starters, a

888
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 2: bunch of all pros. You know, Stanley got banged out.

889
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:08,360
Speaker 2: You take all those injuries. I don't know, it's a

890
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:11,040
Speaker 2: couple of points. Lamar to me is worth like seven points,

891
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:14,000
Speaker 2: so that I make it around a pick. But pricing

892
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:17,080
Speaker 2: those cluster injuries, I don't know that that is like

893
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 2: a huge uncertainty game for me. Their defense is like

894
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 2: the worst in the league right now though because of

895
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:26,640
Speaker 2: all the injuries. So right now in market it's there.

896
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 2: You know, the Texans are like one to one and

897
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:31,359
Speaker 2: a half point favorite, So I'm not too far off

898
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:32,680
Speaker 2: there and I just don't know, so I wanted to

899
00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:36,200
Speaker 2: avoid that game. In regards to the Commanders, another big

900
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:39,200
Speaker 2: uncertainty game because we don't know how healthy Daniels is,

901
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 2: so like, is he gonna have full mobility? Is he

902
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:43,919
Speaker 2: going to have so like? I don't want to bet

903
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:46,239
Speaker 2: it because of that. But as far as taking the side,

904
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 2: but as far as the money line upside, it's worth it,

905
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:52,160
Speaker 2: especially when you consider that the Chargers offense, it just

906
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 2: might be completely crippled by these offensive line injuries. I

907
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:58,520
Speaker 2: don't know what they're gonna do now. The Washington defense

908
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:01,719
Speaker 2: is not the Giants defense. Not trying to suggest that,

909
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 2: but it was. They were incapable of doing anything because

910
00:47:05,800 --> 00:47:08,760
Speaker 2: I mean, you go down to two Pro Bowl tackles, yep,

911
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 2: like I don't know, like you get becked in back

912
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:13,640
Speaker 2: as backed him back, I don't even know for sure.

913
00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:16,600
Speaker 2: I assume he should be, but if he's not, it's

914
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 2: a disaster. But yeah, even with him back, like you're

915
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 2: gonna maybe kick Sally're out to left tackle. The Bozeman's

916
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 2: been the worst center in the league. Maybe they go

917
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 2: to James this week. Regardless, it's a mess So a

918
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:32,960
Speaker 2: lot of uncertainty here, uh, with you know, the Washington injuries,

919
00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:36,440
Speaker 2: the Daniel situation, the Chargers messy offensive line, there's not

920
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:40,440
Speaker 2: much of a home field advantage, So give me the Commanders.

921
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:43,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it is. It's kind of an uncertainty game

922
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:47,000
Speaker 1: for me. Guys. I definitely thought about the Commanders, but yeah,

923
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:49,480
Speaker 1: I just don't know enough about their their situation on

924
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:53,200
Speaker 1: offense yet. And I, as full disclosure, also thought about

925
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:55,680
Speaker 1: the the Giants. You know, we talked about them at

926
00:47:55,719 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 1: the top. We kind of disagree there. I just spent

927
00:47:58,040 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 1: a ratt. I haven't won a game yet as long

928
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 1: as he's start and as a favorite, don't don't don't

929
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 1: love him in that spot. And another one I thought

930
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:08,319
Speaker 1: about was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they've been so

931
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:10,880
Speaker 1: I mean near the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They finally, I

932
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:13,319
Speaker 1: mean they lost the game to the even luckier Eagles.

933
00:48:13,640 --> 00:48:17,440
Speaker 2: But I love the Seahawks there, so yeah, I mean

934
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 2: they're off long rash. It's fair, it's fair, Yeah, off

935
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:23,080
Speaker 2: long rest Tampa coming across the country. Tons of injuries,

936
00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:24,520
Speaker 2: by the way, the Bucks Heason could be like one

937
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:26,560
Speaker 2: in three or zero and four, there's no Evans, There's

938
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:29,719
Speaker 2: there's probably no Bucky Irving. Backups on the right side

939
00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:32,239
Speaker 2: of the offensive line. Lots of injuries on d to

940
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:36,480
Speaker 2: note Reddick Gains, Kancy Dean Morrison. And the way to

941
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:40,320
Speaker 2: beat Baker is pressure without blitzing. Always has been, always

942
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:43,000
Speaker 2: will be. It's again same thing this year. His numbers

943
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:44,800
Speaker 2: when you get pressure without blitzing, Well, what is the

944
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 2: Seahawks defense. It's that bottom two and Blitzer rate top

945
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 2: five pressure right. Mayfield Also, this is the game where

946
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 2: I think the turnover aggression comes because they're gonna get pressure,

947
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:55,839
Speaker 2: They're gonna be playing disguising coverage in the back end.

948
00:48:56,120 --> 00:48:59,799
Speaker 2: Mayfield is nine touchdowns, one interception, is nine turnover where

949
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:02,280
Speaker 2: he and he also has like a bunch of fumbles.

950
00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:05,320
Speaker 2: They've recovered them all somehow. And the last two seasons

951
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 2: Sam Donald is destroying the blitz and you know you're

952
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:12,359
Speaker 2: gonna get that a lot against Todd Bowles. So, uh,

953
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:16,880
Speaker 2: I like the spot for with all the injuries. I

954
00:49:17,000 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 2: like this there. So where are you gonna go?

955
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're actually gonna go because I agree, I think

956
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 1: like the Bucks, I actually probably like to spread more

957
00:49:24,080 --> 00:49:25,839
Speaker 1: with the Bucks just because you're still getting the hook

958
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 1: now at this point, you know, and the Bucks always

959
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 1: find a way to hang around in these games and

960
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:32,839
Speaker 1: again just lucking near into it. But where I am

961
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:35,040
Speaker 1: gonna go is the New York Jets. You you already

962
00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:37,520
Speaker 1: talked about him. I think this Cowboys team has been

963
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:41,160
Speaker 1: getting a little bit lucky offensively. I think going to

964
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 1: met Life is going to be difficult. We already broke

965
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 1: down offensive line injuries, bealore, Jets have been running unlucky,

966
00:49:47,040 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 1: should be probably five hundred look a lot better, but

967
00:49:50,120 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 1: shooting them in the foot themselves in the foot like

968
00:49:52,080 --> 00:49:53,840
Speaker 1: the same old Jets. But I mean this is the Cowboys.

969
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:56,080
Speaker 1: I mean, look at the cow The Cowboys played the

970
00:49:56,080 --> 00:49:59,319
Speaker 1: most emotional game, like uh, you know, over expectation on

971
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:02,799
Speaker 1: offense against very good defense all for a tie, you know,

972
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:06,240
Speaker 1: like that. That's so Cowboys. I think coming out here,

973
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:08,640
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna come crashing down at some point

974
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:10,800
Speaker 1: for them. We saw it in Chicago. I think we

975
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:12,920
Speaker 1: see it again on the East coast. So yeah, give

976
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:15,920
Speaker 1: me the GM. The Jets at plus one twenty. You

977
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:19,879
Speaker 1: got the plus one twenty Commanders. So that's two teams

978
00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:22,759
Speaker 1: at plus one twenty. At DraftKings. Probably those together you

979
00:50:22,760 --> 00:50:24,839
Speaker 1: get plus three eighty four.

980
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:26,960
Speaker 2: Time for you to hit what I think I've hit

981
00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:28,280
Speaker 2: like four all four weeks?

982
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:29,480
Speaker 1: What do you have? What do you What did you

983
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 1: have last week? I should have said that up top?

984
00:50:31,880 --> 00:50:34,240
Speaker 1: Did Where was your last week?

985
00:50:34,560 --> 00:50:37,279
Speaker 2: I had the Jags?

986
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 1: Yeah? Oh yeah, yeah, so I think you did it

987
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:42,400
Speaker 1: all fours. So I wonder what. I wonder what the

988
00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 1: I gotta I gotta calculate the units. But yeah, you've

989
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:48,520
Speaker 1: you've been locked in, so I'm not surprised. I got

990
00:50:48,520 --> 00:50:51,279
Speaker 1: some work to do. But yeah, I mean we're kind

991
00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:53,920
Speaker 1: of connected here. Well we were last week too in

992
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:57,239
Speaker 1: a way with the Jags. But yeah, Jets, you know,

993
00:50:57,280 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 1: if they cover for you, they should probably win that game.

994
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:02,160
Speaker 1: I still see how it goes. But plus three eighty

995
00:51:02,160 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 1: four this week, and yeah, I think I think you

996
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:06,480
Speaker 1: got you got four. I don't know. If I don't know,

997
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 1: if I have probably have one. I got we we

998
00:51:10,040 --> 00:51:13,160
Speaker 1: don't have our tracker in the sheet. But yeah, either way,

999
00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:19,439
Speaker 1: good stuff. Keep it going, Jets commanders. Plus three eighty four.

1000
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:22,319
Speaker 1: Now it's time for any time a touchdown part way

1001
00:51:22,360 --> 00:51:26,880
Speaker 1: presented by Draft Kings. Stuck didn't didn't hit on the

1002
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:30,040
Speaker 1: what was it Turpiden Golden last week? It was like

1003
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:35,719
Speaker 1: eighty points. Yeah, Golden should have had one. Tough but

1004
00:51:36,040 --> 00:51:37,080
Speaker 1: where are you going this week?

1005
00:51:37,800 --> 00:51:41,200
Speaker 2: Let's go t Higgins puts he plus two to one,

1006
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 2: somewhere around two thirty plus two thirty plus two thirty

1007
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:46,239
Speaker 2: against the lines. I don't I don't think the Bengals

1008
00:51:46,280 --> 00:51:49,600
Speaker 2: are gonna get any stops. I think that the Bengals

1009
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:52,200
Speaker 2: offense will look much more functional here. They still can't

1010
00:51:52,239 --> 00:51:53,719
Speaker 2: really run the ball. It's gonna have to be through

1011
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:56,560
Speaker 2: the air. Higgins is gonna have huge matchup advantages in

1012
00:51:56,560 --> 00:51:59,840
Speaker 2: the outside. I mean, who's covering him, like Robertson or Rockets?

1013
00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 2: What are they like five to ten each? So there's

1014
00:52:02,640 --> 00:52:05,239
Speaker 2: gonna be some jump ball opportunities and some for big

1015
00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:08,120
Speaker 2: plays down the field. And I expect the Lions to

1016
00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:10,440
Speaker 2: win this game, like I bet the Bengals plus ten

1017
00:52:10,480 --> 00:52:13,720
Speaker 2: and a half. But there's a lot there's the most

1018
00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 2: likely scenarios this is that they're playing from behind and

1019
00:52:17,480 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 2: they're gonna be throwing a ton. So there's gonna be

1020
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:23,120
Speaker 2: a lot of opportunities here with these these cluster injuries

1021
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:25,680
Speaker 2: at corner for Detroit, and it's not a team that

1022
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:30,160
Speaker 2: is gonna get really quick pressure right away. So yeah,

1023
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:32,400
Speaker 2: I like the matchups for T Higgins on the outside.

1024
00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:35,279
Speaker 1: Yeah. T Higgins do for some regression too. I mean

1025
00:52:35,280 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 1: he's been down, but he's been on a field just

1026
00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:39,359
Speaker 1: ninety I believe his route rate is around ninety two

1027
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:41,760
Speaker 1: to ninety three percent. And for a guy that talented,

1028
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:44,359
Speaker 1: a bull up game should be coming in short order.

1029
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with I'm actually gonna go to an

1030
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:48,640
Speaker 1: interesting one because I did take the under in this game.

1031
00:52:48,680 --> 00:52:52,800
Speaker 1: But the value here for the touchdown on quin Shawn Judkins,

1032
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:55,400
Speaker 1: I think at plus one fifty five is good because

1033
00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:57,399
Speaker 1: not only do you have a game where I think

1034
00:52:57,480 --> 00:52:58,880
Speaker 1: the Browns are gonna be able.

1035
00:52:58,719 --> 00:53:00,680
Speaker 2: To anyone gonna score a touchdown the game though that's

1036
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:01,160
Speaker 2: the only.

1037
00:53:01,080 --> 00:53:03,880
Speaker 1: Word, yeah exactly. I mean you could take no touchdown

1038
00:53:04,000 --> 00:53:05,839
Speaker 1: is like a hedge. That would be fun, but I'm

1039
00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:07,360
Speaker 1: not gonna do that. I'm gonna I'm gonna stick with

1040
00:53:07,400 --> 00:53:09,600
Speaker 1: Juggins here because I do like the value I have this.

1041
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:13,360
Speaker 1: I have this undervalued as we record this on Wednesday,

1042
00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:16,400
Speaker 1: because two things kind of play in here. Number One,

1043
00:53:16,480 --> 00:53:20,160
Speaker 1: Jenkins has been getting very high rated the carries number two,

1044
00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:24,200
Speaker 1: you project to not be as big of a dog

1045
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:26,680
Speaker 1: and trailing in this spot as you know, most of

1046
00:53:26,680 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 1: your games, even that Green Bay game that that they won,

1047
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:31,719
Speaker 1: they were trailing pretty much the whole game. Uh and

1048
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:37,560
Speaker 1: Gabriel from Flaco, I think morphs the pass run ratio

1049
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:41,120
Speaker 1: a little bit just beyond game script. Even so early downs,

1050
00:53:41,520 --> 00:53:44,200
Speaker 1: I think you see more Judkins as well. You know,

1051
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:46,840
Speaker 1: in near the go on, they're using the fullback Huntington.

1052
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:50,759
Speaker 1: You know, I believe he's a defensive player, but yeah,

1053
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:53,640
Speaker 1: they're using him, so they they're kind of set up,

1054
00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:56,319
Speaker 1: you know, if there's a touchdown in this game, I

1055
00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:58,719
Speaker 1: think Judkins has a has the best shot at it

1056
00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:02,040
Speaker 1: for the Browns in this especially, you know Tillman's out.

1057
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:04,680
Speaker 1: Isaiah Bond is a guy I thought about too. I

1058
00:54:04,680 --> 00:54:06,480
Speaker 1: think he's going to be undervalued in that market. So

1059
00:54:06,520 --> 00:54:09,000
Speaker 1: if you want a longer shot, but I don't expect

1060
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 1: many fireworks through the air of this one. So give

1061
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:14,520
Speaker 1: me Jenkins at plus one fifty five. Partway goes together

1062
00:54:14,520 --> 00:54:18,360
Speaker 1: at DraftKings Higgins two thirty, Judkins one fifty five, and

1063
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:23,360
Speaker 1: you get plus seven forty one for our anytime Touchdown

1064
00:54:23,440 --> 00:54:32,520
Speaker 1: Parlay for Week five, presented by DraftKings. Week four, Week

1065
00:54:32,560 --> 00:54:34,839
Speaker 1: five Survivor, Did I did I hit? Last week? Who

1066
00:54:34,840 --> 00:54:37,200
Speaker 1: did I have? Detroit? Okay? I did? Okay, I'm somehow

1067
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:38,000
Speaker 1: still alive here.

1068
00:54:39,560 --> 00:54:44,600
Speaker 2: I have some of my my huge pool flyers. Last

1069
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:49,600
Speaker 2: week I went with Atlanta and who else but the

1070
00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:52,640
Speaker 2: two I have left. I lost a lot on the Texans,

1071
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:57,320
Speaker 2: Oh god, but I went Last week I went with

1072
00:54:56,320 --> 00:55:02,720
Speaker 2: the Falcons and what is the other one I used?

1073
00:55:02,960 --> 00:55:03,120
Speaker 4: Uh?

1074
00:55:03,440 --> 00:55:07,160
Speaker 2: Oh, the Falcons and the Patriots. This week I used

1075
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:10,040
Speaker 2: two left in this big, this huge pool, which you

1076
00:55:10,239 --> 00:55:13,080
Speaker 2: I mean, it's there's Christmas Day, Thanksgiving is a whole

1077
00:55:13,120 --> 00:55:16,759
Speaker 2: separate week. I This week I went with the Saints,

1078
00:55:17,520 --> 00:55:23,160
Speaker 2: and uh, the Saints and the Panthers.

1079
00:55:24,640 --> 00:55:27,080
Speaker 1: Oh man, I mean that's that's take some cohonas. I'm not.

1080
00:55:27,160 --> 00:55:27,439
Speaker 2: I can't.

1081
00:55:27,960 --> 00:55:29,880
Speaker 1: I'm not, I'm not. I'm still not with you. On

1082
00:55:29,880 --> 00:55:32,799
Speaker 1: the Saints. I still can't get over Spencer Rattler ten

1083
00:55:32,880 --> 00:55:36,040
Speaker 1: and just to turnover where he throws. You know, I

1084
00:55:36,560 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 1: could sense we could get some more shuck. I don't know.

1085
00:55:39,680 --> 00:55:42,319
Speaker 1: I mean, rat was played okay, but I think from

1086
00:55:42,320 --> 00:55:44,799
Speaker 1: a survivor standpoint, it is a great, I'm trying.

1087
00:55:45,640 --> 00:55:47,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, like, I'm not gonna like this. This is the

1088
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:48,839
Speaker 2: only two weeks I'd probably used the pant I mean,

1089
00:55:49,080 --> 00:55:50,880
Speaker 2: the only week of the year i'd use either one

1090
00:55:50,920 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 2: of those teams.

1091
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:56,319
Speaker 1: So all right, I'm gonna go. And this is why

1092
00:55:57,000 --> 00:55:58,719
Speaker 1: I did mention. You know, I think it was Week

1093
00:55:58,760 --> 00:56:03,200
Speaker 1: one and saving Arizona, and you know I ended up

1094
00:56:03,200 --> 00:56:07,080
Speaker 1: going with Philadelphia. So if if anyone did the same,

1095
00:56:07,520 --> 00:56:10,440
Speaker 1: that means you would have Arizona this week against his

1096
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:13,359
Speaker 1: Titan team. That man.

1097
00:56:15,440 --> 00:56:17,960
Speaker 2: For Calaun Yeah, like, oh.

1098
00:56:17,760 --> 00:56:20,840
Speaker 1: My god, he's so mad, It's unbelievable. How bad it.

1099
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:24,359
Speaker 2: Now here's the thing. I leaned Arizona that game. If

1100
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:27,600
Speaker 2: you want a teaser. Also, I think Arizona maybe to

1101
00:56:27,719 --> 00:56:32,280
Speaker 2: like the Jets, uh is a good teaser option this week.

1102
00:56:34,360 --> 00:56:37,320
Speaker 2: So I also think that the brown well, the Browns,

1103
00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:39,239
Speaker 2: there's a lot of variants in there, so I would

1104
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:43,160
Speaker 2: just take the points with them. I like the I

1105
00:56:43,239 --> 00:56:45,160
Speaker 2: kind of leaned the Cardinals. But I've I've said this

1106
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:48,720
Speaker 2: all year, the Titans defense wears down and the damn

1107
00:56:48,800 --> 00:56:51,759
Speaker 2: breaks every week. We was six nothing in the fourth quarter.

1108
00:56:51,840 --> 00:56:53,880
Speaker 2: Last week he had twenty points against the Rams. He

1109
00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:56,239
Speaker 2: saw the same thing because, like Simmons eventually wears down

1110
00:56:56,280 --> 00:56:57,840
Speaker 2: the triple team them, there's no one else. This is

1111
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:01,479
Speaker 2: a one man d So if Cardinals run the ball

1112
00:57:01,680 --> 00:57:03,239
Speaker 2: like the Titans rund, he's not good.

1113
00:57:03,320 --> 00:57:05,640
Speaker 1: No, they got Benson on ir now.

1114
00:57:05,560 --> 00:57:07,400
Speaker 2: Yes, So who's gonna who's gonna be running it?

1115
00:57:07,400 --> 00:57:14,800
Speaker 5: Because process here later Michael Carter, he's.

1116
00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:16,040
Speaker 1: I think, so Debriacado has been the two minute back,

1117
00:57:16,280 --> 00:57:19,560
Speaker 1: so I think Carter. Yeah. So I'm like Carter is

1118
00:57:19,600 --> 00:57:23,320
Speaker 1: actually full disposure anytime touchdown. I was looking for the

1119
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:26,040
Speaker 1: Carter odds, but they're down because this we're kind of

1120
00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:28,480
Speaker 1: just getting this news. But Carter's the guy. I think

1121
00:57:28,480 --> 00:57:31,080
Speaker 1: they still be undervalued on the market because he got

1122
00:57:31,080 --> 00:57:33,880
Speaker 1: brought up last week and he played over Bam night

1123
00:57:33,920 --> 00:57:36,800
Speaker 1: as the backup to Benson. And we saw the same

1124
00:57:36,840 --> 00:57:39,080
Speaker 1: thing in what was the week eighteen last year where

1125
00:57:39,080 --> 00:57:41,080
Speaker 1: Carter got brought up off the practice squad. They already

1126
00:57:41,080 --> 00:57:43,920
Speaker 1: had I think DJ Dallas there, uh you know, and

1127
00:57:43,920 --> 00:57:46,400
Speaker 1: and Carter still with the lead back. So I think

1128
00:57:46,440 --> 00:57:48,240
Speaker 1: it's gonna be Carter. I don't mean he's not great,

1129
00:57:48,560 --> 00:57:51,520
Speaker 1: but I still think this Cardinal offense could do enough.

1130
00:57:51,760 --> 00:57:54,600
Speaker 1: I think they're kind of you know, Barvin Harrison still

1131
00:57:54,600 --> 00:57:55,840
Speaker 1: has more positive aggression.

1132
00:57:56,200 --> 00:57:58,160
Speaker 2: Uh, so you kindly look good at the end of

1133
00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:00,400
Speaker 2: the game, look like you got some confidence. So I

1134
00:58:01,000 --> 00:58:05,840
Speaker 2: teaser option. Yeah, I agree with your survivor. But I'm

1135
00:58:05,840 --> 00:58:08,840
Speaker 2: gonna be looking for the Cardinals like a second half

1136
00:58:08,840 --> 00:58:12,160
Speaker 2: if this game is close or like live at some point,

1137
00:58:13,640 --> 00:58:15,240
Speaker 2: because I do think the damn is gonna break with

1138
00:58:15,240 --> 00:58:17,560
Speaker 2: the Titans, especially the Cardinals were like actually having success

1139
00:58:17,640 --> 00:58:20,760
Speaker 2: running the ball. The Titans defense will wear down and

1140
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:23,920
Speaker 2: then and then the dam will break. Then the only

1141
00:58:23,960 --> 00:58:25,800
Speaker 2: other game we didn't talk about, and then Callahan will

1142
00:58:25,800 --> 00:58:29,880
Speaker 2: make a catastrophic decision at some point or three. The

1143
00:58:29,920 --> 00:58:32,240
Speaker 2: only game the game we didn't talk about was Patriots Bills.

1144
00:58:32,800 --> 00:58:39,160
Speaker 2: I'm monitoring Bill's injury report. Milano, Oliver, and Spencer Brown

1145
00:58:39,200 --> 00:58:41,480
Speaker 2: all were back of practice today. That's pretty big. I

1146
00:58:41,480 --> 00:58:44,040
Speaker 2: don't know if they're gonna go or they were. They're

1147
00:58:44,160 --> 00:58:47,919
Speaker 2: probably gonna be limited. Will know more tomorrow. The Patriots. Look,

1148
00:58:47,920 --> 00:58:49,520
Speaker 2: here's the thing. The Bill's run defense right now is

1149
00:58:49,520 --> 00:58:51,080
Speaker 2: broken with these injuries. So we'll see if they get

1150
00:58:51,080 --> 00:58:53,800
Speaker 2: everyone back. But the Pats can't run the ball, the

1151
00:58:53,800 --> 00:58:56,280
Speaker 2: Bills start getting a ton of pressure. The Patriots are

1152
00:58:56,280 --> 00:58:57,920
Speaker 2: giving up a ton of pressure. Drake May is playing

1153
00:58:57,920 --> 00:59:00,520
Speaker 2: really well considering his offensive line, considering no running game,

1154
00:59:00,560 --> 00:59:04,680
Speaker 2: considering the lack of separation as receivers are getting, but

1155
00:59:04,840 --> 00:59:07,560
Speaker 2: his his success rate and numbers on like late downs

1156
00:59:07,560 --> 00:59:11,360
Speaker 2: are astronomical. There's probably some regression coming there. He's probably

1157
00:59:11,400 --> 00:59:13,160
Speaker 2: gonna take have to take some sacks here that are

1158
00:59:13,160 --> 00:59:18,400
Speaker 2: gonna kill some drives and the Bills. My fear is

1159
00:59:19,320 --> 00:59:23,240
Speaker 2: the Patriots aren't gonna get much pressure and Alan is

1160
00:59:23,240 --> 00:59:24,600
Speaker 2: going to be able to abuse the middle of the

1161
00:59:24,600 --> 00:59:27,800
Speaker 2: field here. I mean, the Patriots linebackers in coverage are

1162
00:59:27,800 --> 00:59:29,440
Speaker 2: the worse in the league. It's so bad, and their

1163
00:59:29,440 --> 00:59:34,440
Speaker 2: safeties aren't great. So I fear for what Alan can

1164
00:59:34,440 --> 00:59:37,240
Speaker 2: do over the middle of the field in this game.

1165
00:59:37,880 --> 00:59:41,280
Speaker 2: And I'm not sure May can continue this pace. And

1166
00:59:41,600 --> 00:59:44,360
Speaker 2: the Patriots lack of run game right now, like they're like,

1167
00:59:44,400 --> 00:59:46,680
Speaker 2: I don't know, a bottom two and success rate rush EPI,

1168
00:59:46,680 --> 00:59:49,520
Speaker 2: it's bad. And that's like, that's how the Saints. That's

1169
00:59:49,320 --> 00:59:50,880
Speaker 2: that's one of the reasons I like the Saint last

1170
00:59:50,880 --> 00:59:52,080
Speaker 2: week because they were able to run it on this

1171
00:59:52,120 --> 00:59:55,560
Speaker 2: Buffalo team. But some injury questions right now, So I

1172
00:59:55,600 --> 00:59:57,800
Speaker 2: got nothing there on Sunday night, Well, one of us

1173
00:59:57,840 --> 00:59:58,800
Speaker 2: will write that game up.

1174
00:59:58,880 --> 01:00:03,600
Speaker 1: So would you feel confident at all? And I usually

1175
01:00:03,640 --> 01:00:07,800
Speaker 1: shy away from division games, uh, In Survivor, I think

1176
01:00:07,840 --> 01:00:10,120
Speaker 1: I ended up taking the Bills against the Dolphins in

1177
01:00:10,160 --> 01:00:12,120
Speaker 1: Week three? But would you would you feel at all

1178
01:00:12,120 --> 01:00:14,120
Speaker 1: confident in the Bills in Survivor this week if you

1179
01:00:14,160 --> 01:00:15,120
Speaker 1: had them still or no?

1180
01:00:15,520 --> 01:00:22,160
Speaker 2: I'd rather use the Cardinals, to be honest, There's because

1181
01:00:22,240 --> 01:00:23,920
Speaker 2: I just don't know right now in the Bill's injury

1182
01:00:23,960 --> 01:00:27,440
Speaker 2: situation and if they're still out, if they're you know,

1183
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:30,560
Speaker 2: Milano and Oliver are still out, their d right now

1184
01:00:30,600 --> 01:00:34,320
Speaker 2: is really bad. So but I do think they get

1185
01:00:34,320 --> 01:00:37,480
Speaker 2: the win, but I would much rather use I mean,

1186
01:00:37,480 --> 01:00:39,720
Speaker 2: they don't have an easy schedule. They're much better team

1187
01:00:39,720 --> 01:00:41,680
Speaker 2: than the Cardinals. Like you're getting the Cardinals at home

1188
01:00:42,560 --> 01:00:45,440
Speaker 2: against a bottom feeder, This is the week to use

1189
01:00:45,480 --> 01:00:46,800
Speaker 2: the Cardinals. But if you have the Bills, like, I

1190
01:00:47,440 --> 01:00:50,720
Speaker 2: think they win, but I still need some more. I

1191
01:00:50,720 --> 01:00:52,520
Speaker 2: don't love the matchup with the Patriots because they can't

1192
01:00:52,560 --> 01:00:55,680
Speaker 2: run the ball and they're gonna give up pressure and

1193
01:00:55,720 --> 01:00:57,800
Speaker 2: there's probably May He's probably gonna take some sacks and

1194
01:00:57,800 --> 01:00:59,880
Speaker 2: it's gonna kill some drives, and I'm not sure you

1195
01:01:00,080 --> 01:01:03,280
Speaker 2: keep up this pace on third downs. And there the

1196
01:01:03,320 --> 01:01:06,280
Speaker 2: Bills line, the Patriots linebackers are so bad and coverage

1197
01:01:07,160 --> 01:01:11,439
Speaker 2: that it's going to really cost them here. So yeah,

1198
01:01:11,760 --> 01:01:13,880
Speaker 2: I would feel fairly confident, but I'd rather use the

1199
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:14,439
Speaker 2: Cardinals if.

1200
01:01:14,320 --> 01:01:16,520
Speaker 1: You we'll get out of here. I just I was

1201
01:01:16,560 --> 01:01:19,840
Speaker 1: looking at our survivor and you went down in week

1202
01:01:19,880 --> 01:01:21,640
Speaker 1: two with Houston, and I just I'm just looking at

1203
01:01:21,640 --> 01:01:24,440
Speaker 1: how things have come full circle in the on the season.

1204
01:01:25,080 --> 01:01:27,200
Speaker 1: I ended up using Baltimore in Week two, saying, like,

1205
01:01:27,280 --> 01:01:29,560
Speaker 1: I think they have a tough schedule going forward and

1206
01:01:29,600 --> 01:01:33,360
Speaker 1: this is probably and like, how far from just everything

1207
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:35,919
Speaker 1: have we come where it's like Houston Baltimore in Week five,

1208
01:01:36,360 --> 01:01:39,240
Speaker 1: it's like a forty total. They both stink.

1209
01:01:39,960 --> 01:01:42,320
Speaker 2: I mean, this is Ravens are home dogs.

1210
01:01:43,960 --> 01:01:48,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just just absurd. But yeah, hopefully hopefully somebody's

1211
01:01:48,480 --> 01:01:52,600
Speaker 1: still alive there, and good luck with the Saints this week.

1212
01:01:52,640 --> 01:01:55,480
Speaker 1: Stuck in your in your big pools, and we'll get

1213
01:01:55,480 --> 01:01:57,600
Speaker 1: out of here. That's a wrap. Thanks for listening. Shout

1214
01:01:57,640 --> 01:01:59,760
Speaker 1: to our sponsored DraftKings if you want to tail some

1215
01:01:59,800 --> 01:02:01,959
Speaker 1: of the we discussed today. You can find the quick

1216
01:02:01,960 --> 01:02:06,000
Speaker 1: slip links in the video and podcast descriptions, or visit

1217
01:02:06,040 --> 01:02:08,640
Speaker 1: Action network dot com slash bet now. If you're on

1218
01:02:08,840 --> 01:02:12,000
Speaker 1: X check out Playbook. Just tag at Playbook and our

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Speaker 1: AI bot will create a betslip for you with whatever

1220
01:02:14,920 --> 01:02:17,120
Speaker 1: bet you're looking for. All season long, you can hear

1221
01:02:17,240 --> 01:02:20,120
Speaker 1: more of me my guys, Sean Kerner talking Fantasy Player

1222
01:02:20,120 --> 01:02:22,720
Speaker 1: Projections DFS, all that good stuff over on the Fantasy

1223
01:02:22,760 --> 01:02:25,040
Speaker 1: Flex podcast, and of course be sure to check out

1224
01:02:25,080 --> 01:02:27,800
Speaker 1: Stucky on the all new favorite podcast It's Really Dope,

1225
01:02:28,160 --> 01:02:31,560
Speaker 1: as well as talking college football over on Big Bets

1226
01:02:31,640 --> 01:02:34,280
Speaker 1: on Campus podcast. You can find stuff on X at

1227
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:36,240
Speaker 1: Stucky to a mac Chris a Raybo and We're at

1228
01:02:36,280 --> 01:02:39,080
Speaker 1: those same handles on the free award winning Action Network

1229
01:02:39,120 --> 01:02:42,720
Speaker 1: app until week six, Let's get this money let out.

1230
01:02:58,760 --> 01:03:02,200
Speaker 1: Action Network remind you please gamble responsibly.

1231
01:03:02,600 --> 01:03:05,440
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1232
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