1 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:05,760 Speaker 1: You wake up before your alarm. No sunlight peaks through 2 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,640 Speaker 1: your window. It's far too early for that. You're confused 3 00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:11,280 Speaker 1: for just a moment, and then you hear another explosion. 4 00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: It echoes in the night, rattling the walls in the 5 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 1: window of your apartment. This is not the first bomb 6 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 1: you've heard, and it sounds far enough away that you 7 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: know the danger isn't a minute. That surprises you a 8 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: little bit, the fact that you recognized it's not close. 9 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: You realize you've now heard enough explosions to have a 10 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 1: pretty good ear for them, and when they're close enough 11 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 1: to worry about. It's weird how quickly life in a 12 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: war zone becomes just life. You get up, there's no 13 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 1: sense trying to get back to sleep. As you stumble 14 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 1: over to the kitchen to grind some coffee, you hear 15 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 1: the crack of rifle fire. It's distant, too far enough 16 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 1: away that it sounds almost like firecrackers, but you know 17 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 1: it's not. You fill the grinder, put on the top, 18 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: and press down. Nothing happens. You realize, belatedly in your 19 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 1: sleep fogged brain that the powers out again. You wonder 20 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 1: which of the dozen different rebel and insurgents groups in 21 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 1: your state might be responsible. You don't even bother to 22 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 1: get at your phone and check the news. It doesn't 23 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 1: really matter, and you've got shipped to do. It's still 24 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: dark outside, and since you're already up, you might as 25 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 1: well take advantage of the situation and beat the crowd 26 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:12,559 Speaker 1: to the grocery store. They've been short on everything lately, 27 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 1: thanks to separatists in northern California. Most nuts are basically unavailable. 28 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 1: Rebel insurgents have been bombing highways in West Texas, so 29 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 1: beef is way up. You don't tend to buy much 30 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:24,320 Speaker 1: meat these days anyway, though. All the blackouts make your 31 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 1: fridge unreliable, and you can't afford to spend money on 32 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 1: stuff that goes bad. You throw on a light jacket 33 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 1: and roll downstairs. Two or three years ago, before all 34 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 1: this started, you'd have popped in your earbuds and put 35 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:37,479 Speaker 1: on some music to accompany the walk. Today, you figure 36 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:40,039 Speaker 1: it'd be best to have your wits about you. You're 37 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 1: lucky you live so close to the grocery store. There's 38 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:44,959 Speaker 1: a police checkpoint on the way, and the vehicle line 39 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: is always a nightmare this time up day. As you 40 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 1: close and lock your door behind you. You try to 41 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 1: ignore the pop and chatter of not so distant gunfire. 42 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 1: You have friends on the separatist side of town. You 43 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 1: have a cousin up in the hills. You're not sure 44 00:01:57,320 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 1: what he's doing there exactly, but it's probably part of 45 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 1: why AIGs have gotten so expensive lately. They all have 46 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 1: reasons for what they're doing, and you don't believe the 47 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 1: government lying about any of the sides anymore. But you're 48 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:08,959 Speaker 1: also not dumb enough to want to stand up and fight. 49 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 1: The official death toll is still just a few thousand, 50 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 1: but international monitors claim it must be much higher. There 51 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: are days when you do feel like doing something, maybe 52 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 1: even joining your friends, but most days, like today, you've 53 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: got shipped to do. It's twenty four, an election year. 54 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 1: Every candidate is doing their level best to not call 55 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: this what it is, a civil war. You hear that 56 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 1: phrase out on the street, though, more and more every day. 57 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 1: You reach a crosswalk and start to step across on 58 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: the left. Your eyes are drawn to the massive bulk 59 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 1: of a police bear cat as it trundles across the 60 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 1: street parallel to you. A man sits up top in 61 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 1: the couple up his hands on a machine gun that 62 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 1: for now has its nose pointed up in the air. 63 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 1: He stares at you, and you try not to stare back. 64 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: As you hurry along with the supermarket. You ask yourself 65 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 1: the question you've asked almost every day for the last 66 00:02:54,840 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 1: three years. How did it get this bad? Did that 67 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:04,120 Speaker 1: seem far fetched? You outlandish? If so, let me try 68 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:06,800 Speaker 1: to show you why the preceding passage might well be 69 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: reality for millions of Americans startlingly soon if something isn't done. 70 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 1: The second American Civil War doesn't sound like a crazy, 71 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:17,519 Speaker 1: distant possibility to me, and it hasn't for a while. 72 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 1: I'm Robert Evans, and it's my job to help you 73 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:26,119 Speaker 1: see what I see. Two thousand sixteen was the first 74 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 1: year I started seriously considering the possibility of a second 75 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 1: American Civil War. It was the year I reported on 76 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 1: the major protests surrounding the most contentious election in modern 77 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 1: American history. I was there at the r n C 78 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 1: in the d n C, and at both I saw 79 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 1: tremendous hatred on display. Leftist protesters hated Hillary Clinton and 80 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 1: mainstream Democrats conspicuously armed. Right wing protesters hated the leftists. 81 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 1: Every one hated the police, and the police certainly seemed 82 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 1: to hate the protesters. I also traveled to a Rack 83 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 1: in two thousand sixteen to report on the siege of Mosel, 84 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 1: but nothing I saw there, nothing I saw anywhere that year, 85 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 1: scared me more than watching Alex Jones speak on the 86 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 1: first day of the r n C. A huge crowd 87 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 1: had gathered to see him. Many of them were armed, 88 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 1: dozens of young men wearing body armor and packing a 89 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 1: R fifteens patrolled in the Ohio summer heat. The speech 90 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 1: was characteristically for Jones, angry, filled with shouted declarations of hatred. 91 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 1: That did not surprise me. What surprised me was the 92 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:25,479 Speaker 1: crowd's reaction to how he labeled the Democratic Party. These 93 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 1: are not liberal. You can hear the reckless hate in 94 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:39,239 Speaker 1: the audio, the sheer rage these people had. Seeing dozens 95 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 1: and dozens of armed Americans calling their political opponents scum 96 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:47,719 Speaker 1: outdoors and broad daylight at a major party political convention. Now, 97 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: in two thousand nineteen, it's the kind of thing that 98 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 1: seems normal, but at the time it was new and frightening. 99 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: I was just a few feet away when adult swims 100 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:58,039 Speaker 1: Eric Andre showed up to troll Jones. I know a 101 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 1: lot of people watched that moment on TV or on YouTube. 102 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:02,919 Speaker 1: What you may not have seen was how close the 103 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 1: crowd looked to tearing Andrea apart. Some of those people 104 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:10,360 Speaker 1: wanted to fucking kill him. Most of that armed, angry 105 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,279 Speaker 1: crowd was polite enough to me, lily white bearded Southerner 106 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 1: that I am, but several of them made it clear 107 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 1: that they believed a fight was coming. We have to 108 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 1: take back our country no matter what. Was the general 109 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 1: sentiment coming from the mouth of someone dressed like they 110 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,479 Speaker 1: just stepped out of downtown Fellujiah, It's sent a chill 111 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 1: down my spine. By the time September rolled around, I 112 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 1: had started seriously thinking about the possibility of a second 113 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:34,720 Speaker 1: American Civil War. I decided to write an article about 114 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,039 Speaker 1: it for Cracked, where I worked as an editor. I 115 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 1: didn't want it to just be my speculation, so I 116 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 1: reached out to a number of experts, ex federal agents 117 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 1: and military officers and civil war scholars. One of these 118 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:48,719 Speaker 1: experts was David Kilcolin, former chief strategist for the U. S. 119 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 1: State Department and a major architect of the surge in Iraq. 120 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 1: He's one of the world's leading counter insurgency experts. When 121 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 1: I reached out to these people, I had very little 122 00:05:57,520 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 1: faith that any of them would respond to me. My 123 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:02,680 Speaker 1: topic seemed too far fetched and ridiculous, and these were 124 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 1: all serious people. I didn't think they'd waste their time 125 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:09,559 Speaker 1: with my speculative sci fi bullshit. To my surprise, every 126 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 1: one of them responded to me, and to my growing discomfort, 127 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 1: none of them thought the topic was ridiculous. David Kilcolin 128 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 1: told me he'd been researching the idea for a while. 129 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 1: He did not think a Civil War two was imminent, 130 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 1: but he worried about it. Everyone I talked, too, worried 131 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:25,560 Speaker 1: about it. They all saw warning signs that our nation 132 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 1: might be inching closer to unspeakable violence. In the years since, 133 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 1: the rest of the world seems to be catching up 134 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:35,719 Speaker 1: to this possibility. Since President Trump's election, we have seen 135 00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:39,480 Speaker 1: a mighty surge in political violence across the country. Antifa 136 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:41,839 Speaker 1: in groups like the Proud Boys and Patriot Prayer have 137 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:45,480 Speaker 1: battled in the streets of multiple American cities. Heather Higher 138 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 1: was murdered in a fascist terrorist attack on counter protesters 139 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 1: in Charlottesville. The magabomber and the Tree of Life synagogue 140 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: shooter both struck at political and racial enemies of the 141 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 1: far right in the same week. In June of two 142 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:00,840 Speaker 1: thousand seventeen, almost exactly a year after Alex jones Is 143 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 1: rally at the r n C, Dana Losh of the 144 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:05,719 Speaker 1: n r A put up a video that seems almost 145 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 1: tailor made to highlight how much worse things got in 146 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 1: the months after the election. They use their media to 147 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 1: assassinate real news. They use their schools to teach children 148 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 1: that their president is another hitler. They use their movie 149 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: stars and singers and comedy shows and award shows to 150 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 1: repeat their narrative over and over again. And then they 151 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: use their ex president to endorse the resistance. All to 152 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 1: make them march, make them protest, make them scream racism 153 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 1: and sexism and xenophobia and homophobia, to smash windows, burn cars, 154 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 1: shutdown interstates and airports, fully and terrorize the law abiding 155 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 1: until the only option left is for the police to 156 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 1: do their jobs and stop the madness. And when that happens, 157 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 1: they'll use it as an excuse for their outrage. The 158 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 1: only way we stop this, the only way we save 159 00:07:56,200 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 1: our country and Our freedom is to fight this violence 160 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 1: of lies with a clenched fist of truth. I'm the 161 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 1: National Rifle Association of America, and I'm Freedom's safest place. 162 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 1: A year later, Roger Stone, famed Trump ally and recently 163 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 1: indicted asshole, had this to say, Try to impeach you, 164 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 1: just try it. You will have a spasm of violence 165 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 1: in this country, an insurrection like you've never seen. You think, 166 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 1: no question, You think if you go in peach like 167 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 1: the country sides are heavily armed, My friend, yes, absolutely, 168 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 1: this is not in nineteen seventy four. They the people 169 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 1: will not stand for impeachment of politician. Who votes for 170 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 1: it would be endangering their own life. There will be 171 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 1: violence on both sides. And of course Alex Jones's own 172 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 1: rhetoric has escalated considerably over the last two years. I 173 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 1: know the instinct here is to write him off as 174 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:51,560 Speaker 1: a nut shouting into the wilderness, but more than a 175 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 1: million Americans watch or listen to his show each month. 176 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:57,199 Speaker 1: He is not nearly as fringe as you want him 177 00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:00,559 Speaker 1: to be. You're trying to start the civil war with people. 178 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:03,960 Speaker 1: You're taking our kindness for weakness. Do you understand the 179 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 1: American people will kill all of you. If you want 180 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 1: a real war a seventeen seventy six. I'm not the 181 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 1: one that's called for violence. You're gonna get wrecked, bads. 182 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 1: I don't want a war. I don't need some you know, 183 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 1: coming of age deal to kill a bunch of liberals. 184 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 1: I just can't. But I also feel like I'm in 185 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:25,800 Speaker 1: dereliction of as a citizen of my duty not saying 186 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:29,079 Speaker 1: we have to start getting ready for insurrection and civil war. 187 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:33,040 Speaker 1: After two years of constantly escalating rhetoric and violence, even 188 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 1: America's political moderates have started to worry. Last October, the 189 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:40,319 Speaker 1: New York Times published an opinion article titled the American 190 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:45,239 Speaker 1: Civil War, Part Two. The National Review, a mainstream conservative magazine, 191 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 1: published The Origins of Our Second Civil War a few 192 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 1: months later. So maybe this all still sounds ridiculous to you, 193 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 1: but let the record show that a whole mess of 194 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:58,079 Speaker 1: heavily armed people are already loudly fantasizing about mass violence. 195 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:00,960 Speaker 1: That's not the only ingredients you need for a vicious 196 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:04,679 Speaker 1: civil war, but it is certainly one of them. Even so, 197 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 1: to most people, the idea of a second American Civil 198 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 1: war feels more like science fiction than a possible future. 199 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:13,679 Speaker 1: I even feel that way sometimes when I step away 200 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,200 Speaker 1: from Twitter and ignore my news feed and walk the quiet, 201 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:19,319 Speaker 1: tree lined streets of my neighborhood. It feels silly when 202 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 1: I stand in line at the d m V or 203 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 1: hop onto a public bus or train. The systems that 204 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:27,600 Speaker 1: govern our lives here are so intricate, so seemingly stable, 205 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 1: and so settled that any kind of mass upset feels 206 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 1: almost impossible, fantastic even. But I have walked through cities 207 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:37,679 Speaker 1: where the public buses still run, just without windows because 208 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 1: the blasts from mortars have blown them all out. I've 209 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 1: watched people stand in line and fill out forms and 210 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 1: government buildings while howitzer shake the foundation and machine guns 211 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 1: chatter half a mile away. I have seen systems collapse. 212 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 1: Everything I've seen and everything I've read over the last 213 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,319 Speaker 1: two years has convinced me that the United States is 214 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:57,959 Speaker 1: closer to that kind of terror than almost anyone is 215 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:01,559 Speaker 1: willing to admit. And so I can't ignore Alex Jones 216 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 1: as a cook on the fringe. I think he's dangerous, 217 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 1: and I think he represents a strain of ideology that 218 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 1: could collapse this nation into apocalyptic violence. We welcome to 219 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 1: It Could Happen Here, a podcast where every season I 220 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 1: take some fantastic, unlikely scenario and explain how it could happen, 221 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 1: why it might be closer than you'd think, and how 222 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:33,840 Speaker 1: it will look when or if it comes. This season, 223 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 1: we are talking about the Second American Civil War, and 224 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 1: this episode we're exploring one possible way that war could start. Today, 225 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:42,920 Speaker 1: the perpetrators will be Donald Trump and the American far 226 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:46,319 Speaker 1: right in its most armed, vicious, and violent incarnation. The 227 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 1: show will be on the other foot for the next episode. 228 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 1: My sympathies are with the left, but my goal here 229 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 1: is not partisan fearmongering. It's an exploration of the possibilities. 230 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 1: I want to start by dispelling sub myths. I think 231 00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 1: the main reason many people have trouble imagining a second 232 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:01,960 Speaker 1: Civil war is the First Civil War. And if you 233 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:04,080 Speaker 1: think of the second Civil War is a replay of 234 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 1: the first, where a huge junk of the nation decides 235 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 1: to secede, there are two cleanly defined sides and two 236 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 1: opposing militaries that clash in the field, then yes, it 237 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 1: probably does seem impossible. But war doesn't look like that anymore. 238 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:18,080 Speaker 1: In eighteen sixty one, an army was just a bunch 239 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 1: of men with rifles, horses, and some cannons. Most of 240 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:23,320 Speaker 1: the kit and modern soldier would take into battle with 241 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 1: stuff that many normal people owned already. The existence of aircraft, drones, 242 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 1: satellite guided missiles and tanks has changed things. A bunch 243 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 1: of dudes with rifles marching on Washington, d C. Would 244 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:35,839 Speaker 1: be wiped out by a single eight in war tawk. 245 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: Older wars tend to have real clear beginnings. The U 246 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 1: s Civil War started with the capture of Fort Sumter, 247 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 1: the Revolutionary War started with a fighting at Lexington and 248 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 1: conquered World War two started with the invasion of Poland. 249 00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:51,520 Speaker 1: But the Syrian Civil War didn't suddenly start so much 250 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 1: as it evolved from popular protests and clashes with police 251 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:57,719 Speaker 1: in the street, to brutal state repression of those protesters, 252 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:01,040 Speaker 1: and eventually to a shooting war. And when that war started, 253 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 1: there were way the funk more than two sides, the 254 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:06,960 Speaker 1: Free Syrian Army, Jabbat al nusra Isis, the YPG, and 255 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 1: dozens of other groups all took different positions, many fighting 256 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:13,199 Speaker 1: against both the Syrian state and other rebel groups. It's 257 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 1: a gigantic, confusing mess. Any mass civil conflict in the 258 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:19,839 Speaker 1: U s would probably look similar. So forget the Union 259 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:22,560 Speaker 1: and the Confederacy, forget clear sides in a clear beginning. 260 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 1: Imagine you're sitting at home one day, browsing the Internet. 261 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:28,440 Speaker 1: You read about the beginning of a protest in Wall Street. 262 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 1: The first pictures and videos that start circulating on social 263 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 1: media probably look a lot like Occupy Once did. I 264 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: imagine these protesters are angry at Trump. As I write 265 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: this in February of twenty nineteen, protesters have assembled in 266 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:42,080 Speaker 1: d C and several other points around the nation to 267 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 1: attack the president's declaration of a state of emergency over 268 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 1: what he calls a crisis at the border. So let's 269 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:49,840 Speaker 1: say Trump does something else, fucked up a set of 270 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:52,840 Speaker 1: mass deportations. Maybe people take to the street to protest 271 00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 1: in huge numbers, millions of folk across the country. Some 272 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 1: of the largest protests are in New York, right outside 273 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 1: of Trump Tower. It will be hot. Most large protests 274 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:03,320 Speaker 1: occur in the dead of summer, and as I write this, 275 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 1: we're edging ever closer to that time of the year, 276 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 1: So you'll have thousands of people crowding in around Trump Tower. 277 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:12,560 Speaker 1: They're hot, sweaty and furious. So far nothing new. The 278 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 1: first pictures and video clips that you see look normal 279 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:16,720 Speaker 1: to anyone who's paid attention to the news for the 280 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 1: last decade. Folks with funny signs, people in costume packed 281 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 1: crowds of marchers. You go about your day, checking Twitter 282 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 1: or Facebook every now and again. You visit the gym 283 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 1: and see footage from the rally on CNN, Wolf Blitzer 284 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 1: talking to some black clad activist with a mask over 285 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 1: his face. Lines of riot cops stand ominously in the background, 286 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 1: sweating through their body armor. It seems pretty normal, at 287 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 1: least for twenty nineteen, and then, rather suddenly it's not. 288 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:42,160 Speaker 1: The tone of the news dripping out from New York 289 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 1: Changes becomes chaotic, erratic, and violent. Now you see people 290 00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 1: running away, blurry footage of blood and bodies on the street, 291 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: evidence that something terrible has happened. For a while, all 292 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 1: you know is that people are dying in the Big Apple. 293 00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 1: Gradually the story comes out. The police opened fire with 294 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 1: what we're supposed to be less than the full rounds, 295 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 1: but they were piste off or legitimately scared, and they 296 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:06,240 Speaker 1: hit several people in their faces and heads. Several of 297 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 1: those folks died and others were horribly injured. For the 298 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 1: rest of the day. For the next week, every new 299 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 1: station rotates the same grim footage of corpses under streets 300 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 1: and weeping activists shaking from the aftermath of lethal violence. 301 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 1: There's video of the shooting. When I see it, I'm 302 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 1: sure it looks like the police fired without cause. My 303 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: conservative parents disagree, pointing to what might be protesters throwing something. 304 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 1: We get into a fight about exactly how much force 305 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 1: that could possibly justify the whole country has that argument 306 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 1: who you blame for the deaths winds up depending on 307 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: where you stand politically. Remember the confrontation between Nathan Phillips 308 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 1: and Nick Sandman at the March for Life in January 309 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 1: of twenty nineteen. As I write this, it's just a 310 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 1: few weeks old. You can watch hours of video from 311 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:50,000 Speaker 1: multiple angles, and yet on social media, right wing pundits 312 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 1: say the full video completely exonerates those kids. Left wing 313 00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 1: pundits say the exact opposite, And these people are all 314 00:15:56,520 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 1: working from the same evidence. The inciting incident for theoretical 315 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 1: civil war will be like that. What was done will 316 00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 1: matter less than how it's interpreted by different segments of 317 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 1: America in their different social media bubbles. After the murder 318 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:12,480 Speaker 1: of Heather Higher at Charlottesville, a narrative developed on the 319 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 1: fascist side of things that claimed James Fields, the killer, 320 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 1: had been assaulted by antifa will in his car. They 321 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 1: argued that he'd accelerated into the crowd in a panic, 322 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 1: and that Heather Higher had actually died from a heart attack. 323 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:25,880 Speaker 1: None of this was true, but hours of video and 324 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:29,160 Speaker 1: countless picture based arguments were concocted by Internet Nazis in 325 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 1: an attempt to exonerate their guy. This narrative did not 326 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: spread widely because fucking nobody wanted to be associated with 327 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 1: the Charlottesville Nazis. But that will not be the case 328 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 1: for this protest. We're imagining no one's wearing a swastika 329 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:44,080 Speaker 1: or holding a tiki torch. You've got cops in riot 330 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:47,320 Speaker 1: gear and activists in black masks. Both sides are sympathetic 331 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:49,640 Speaker 1: to one chunk of the country and reviled by the other. 332 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 1: Even at Charlottesville, President Trump was unwilling to fully condemn 333 00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:56,880 Speaker 1: the neo Nazi demonstrators, declaring that there were good people 334 00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 1: on both sides. So who do you think he'll support? 335 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 1: In a battle the between cops and protesters outside of 336 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 1: his big dumb tower. He literally ran as the law 337 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 1: and order president. Just last October two thousand eighteen, President 338 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 1: Trump declared Democrats to be anti police and the party 339 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 1: of crime. Now, this one bloody protest would not lead 340 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:19,240 Speaker 1: inevitably to a civil war. It just starts a process. 341 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 1: Crossing the bridge from civil unrest to civil warfare doesn't 342 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 1: require a magical and improbable shift in the firmament of reality. 343 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:27,919 Speaker 1: It just takes a bunch of the same fucked up 344 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,160 Speaker 1: ship that's always happening in America, happening all at once 345 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,680 Speaker 1: and in quick succession. One bloody protest on Wall Street 346 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:37,479 Speaker 1: and a defensive response from the Republican President would lead 347 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 1: to more protests all around the country. Activists across the 348 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:42,880 Speaker 1: nation would take to the streets in numbers not seen 349 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 1: since the Iraq War protests in two thousand three. We 350 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:47,679 Speaker 1: can look to our last two years of history to 351 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 1: guess where these demonstrations would be most violent. Berkeley, California, 352 00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: and Portland, Oregon are probably right at the top of 353 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 1: that list. For the last two years, far right and 354 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:59,159 Speaker 1: far left activists have clashed bloodily in the streets of 355 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:01,720 Speaker 1: both cities. Portland has seen more street action in the 356 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:04,120 Speaker 1: last two years than any other city in the country. 357 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:06,200 Speaker 1: This is thanks in large part to the activism of 358 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,399 Speaker 1: a fellow named Joey Gibson. He's the head of a 359 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 1: far right protest group called Patriot Prayer, and he's led 360 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,880 Speaker 1: dozens of rallies that have ended with hundreds of injuries 361 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:17,919 Speaker 1: from minor to life threatening. Recently, the Portland Police Bureau 362 00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 1: were revealed to have been collaborating with Patriot Prayer and 363 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 1: Joey Gibson via text messages. The collaboration seems to have 364 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 1: gone as far as to include police advising right wing 365 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:30,399 Speaker 1: demonstrators where smaller groups of leftist activists were located, and 366 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,560 Speaker 1: giving them suggestions on how they might avoid being searched 367 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 1: for weapons. At one demonstration last summer, Patriot Prayer members 368 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:38,880 Speaker 1: were caught on the roof of a nearby building with rifles, 369 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 1: presumably so they could open fire if ANTIFOD did something 370 00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:44,960 Speaker 1: they considered to be a step out of line. Now 371 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:47,919 Speaker 1: Portland is a famously liberal city, but it's lodged in 372 00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:51,679 Speaker 1: the middle of some extremely conservative rural and suburban communities 373 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:55,880 Speaker 1: in a state with an extraordinarily high rate of gun ownership. Portland, 374 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 1: Oregon is actually a great microcosm for the entire country. 375 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:01,679 Speaker 1: That way, you've got conservative gun owning America versus bleeding 376 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:05,359 Speaker 1: heart gun grabbing liberals. So tempers are high in that area. 377 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,480 Speaker 1: And at this set of protests we're imagining the crowd 378 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:10,480 Speaker 1: is huge and furious about what they see as the 379 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 1: murder of their comrades in New York. In the middle 380 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,199 Speaker 1: of this, Joey Gibson and his goons show up to 381 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:17,360 Speaker 1: rep their side of what's still just a culture war. 382 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:20,120 Speaker 1: They're shoving and punches, as there have been so many 383 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 1: times before in Portland, but this time someone pulls a gun. 384 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:26,359 Speaker 1: This person kills two people. There's video of the event. 385 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,399 Speaker 1: It's blurry, confusing, but we get one clear shot of 386 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:31,959 Speaker 1: the shooter, his hand on a smoking gun and a 387 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,960 Speaker 1: Maga hat on his head. The left sees a mass 388 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:39,120 Speaker 1: murderer firing on unarmed demonstrators. The president embraces his supporter. 389 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,199 Speaker 1: There's an investigation, of course, but rather than shutting up, 390 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,120 Speaker 1: the shooter does what people do now in nineteen when 391 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 1: something like this happens. He goes on TV. Nick Sandman's 392 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 1: response to his kerfuffle with Nate Phillips is now the 393 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:53,959 Speaker 1: blueprint for how to deal with this kind of public incident. 394 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 1: So the shooter is embraced as a hero by a 395 00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 1: lot of people. His name becomes a catchphrase on the 396 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,840 Speaker 1: fire right, the term used to describe giving protesters what 397 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 1: they deserve. Right wingers on Twitter post gifts of him 398 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,120 Speaker 1: holding his gun when they get into arguments with liberals. 399 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:10,560 Speaker 1: The left responds, of course, with more protests, some outside 400 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: of the same Fox News offices where this man talks 401 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 1: to Morning Joe or Laura Ingraham or whoever. Americans see 402 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 1: what they want to see in that too, a murderer 403 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:21,640 Speaker 1: being celebrated for killing liberals, or a horde of unhinged 404 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,480 Speaker 1: leftists banging at the gates. The cops in New York 405 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:26,639 Speaker 1: and the Portland shooter all have their trials, and the 406 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 1: nation holds its breath waiting to see whose version of 407 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:33,239 Speaker 1: justice will be done. The Portland shooter walks free, so 408 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:38,920 Speaker 1: do the NYPD officers. In April, a jury acquitted four 409 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:41,520 Speaker 1: l a p D officers for the violent and videotaped 410 00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 1: beating of Rodney King. Tens of thousands of primarily black 411 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,960 Speaker 1: and Latino citizens took to the streets, overwhelming the police 412 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:50,679 Speaker 1: and doing more than a billion dollars in damage. The 413 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 1: seventh Infantry Division in the first Marine Division, along with 414 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,919 Speaker 1: every federal law enforcement agency imaginable, were called in to 415 00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:00,959 Speaker 1: contain the violence. Now that was one city. Imagine riots 416 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 1: like that in three or four cities, while dozens of 417 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 1: other cities hosts peaceful but still massive and disruptive protests. 418 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:10,120 Speaker 1: That's how I imagine this would go. Rage spreading virally 419 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 1: in the age of the smartphone. Occupy Wall Street was 420 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 1: the first clear example of this, and I think it 421 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 1: was important of things to come. In a matter of weeks, 422 00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,119 Speaker 1: more than six hundred communities in the United States hosted 423 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 1: their own occupy rallies and camps. So imagine large chunks 424 00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 1: of multiple American cities effectively rendered uncontrollable to the federal government. 425 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:32,199 Speaker 1: Government buildings, ice headquarters and the like occupied and blockaded. 426 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:34,879 Speaker 1: In the cities that host riots. The Army and the Marines, 427 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:36,680 Speaker 1: as well as the National Guard are called in to 428 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,080 Speaker 1: restore order, or at least to attempt to do that. 429 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:43,800 Speaker 1: What if they can't. In two thousand and thirteen, protesters 430 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:47,120 Speaker 1: in Ukraine angry about policies introduced by a controversial right 431 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 1: wing president, Victor Yennikovitch, organized in their nation's capital. Yenikovitch 432 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,639 Speaker 1: was an unspeakably wealthy, out of touch asshole who deliberately 433 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,240 Speaker 1: inflamed divisions between the rural and urban parts of his 434 00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 1: country and stole huge amounts of money from the taxpayer. 435 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 1: The man had a private lake with a private boat 436 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:05,879 Speaker 1: restaurant in his private palace, all built with grifted cash. 437 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 1: Many modern and liberals and leftists certainly look at Donald 438 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:11,399 Speaker 1: Trump as if he is that sort of man. The 439 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 1: protests started in Kiv's Independent Square, otherwise known as the Maidan. 440 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 1: It's essentially like a giant protest in the National lawn 441 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:20,760 Speaker 1: or at Wall Street. It's that kind of central location 442 00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:24,479 Speaker 1: to the Ukrainian people, and these protesters basically, you know, 443 00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 1: picked a central chunk of valuable real estate in a 444 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 1: place that the government couldn't ignore, right in the middle 445 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,960 Speaker 1: of the capitol. Now, the Madon protests were a normal 446 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,040 Speaker 1: example of street activism until they weren't. The police cracked 447 00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 1: down on protesters brutally, and suddenly social media flooded with 448 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,440 Speaker 1: pictures of beaten and battered college students. This prompted more 449 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:43,879 Speaker 1: people to take to the streets, friends and family members 450 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 1: of those activists who were livid at the violence done 451 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,920 Speaker 1: to their loved ones. For days, the violence escalated and 452 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 1: the number of protesters grew. The activists turned the Midon 453 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,879 Speaker 1: into a camp, something like a temporary city within a city. 454 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 1: When happened in keV was not at that point so 455 00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,439 Speaker 1: very different from things we have experienced in the United States. 456 00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 1: Occupy Wall Street and the Standing Rock protests were both 457 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 1: examples of activists essentially seizing a crucial chunk of real 458 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 1: estate and refusing to leave. Unlike those protests, the Maidan 459 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:14,359 Speaker 1: occupation did not fizzle out. The activists did not go home. 460 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,479 Speaker 1: They fought with the police and battled the federal government 461 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 1: for several epic and bloody weeks, until finally President Yanukovich 462 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,879 Speaker 1: was forced to flee power in the country. The Ukrainians 463 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,400 Speaker 1: resisted the worst violence their state could throw at them. 464 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 1: It was not an easy task. More than a hundred 465 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,840 Speaker 1: people died, mostly to a combination of police, snipers, and 466 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:35,639 Speaker 1: brutal hand to hand combat. When I reported on the 467 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,200 Speaker 1: Maidan Revolution in two thousand and fourteen, I did not 468 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:42,160 Speaker 1: think that American activists would be capable of the same badassary. 469 00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,119 Speaker 1: I was at Occupy Wall Street for a couple of 470 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,360 Speaker 1: nights back in two thousand eleven, and at the time 471 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 1: I wrote it off as kind of a bust. But 472 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,959 Speaker 1: what I didn't see then, because I was young and dumber, 473 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:53,720 Speaker 1: was that all these links were being formed between different 474 00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 1: left wing organizations and activists. I met people at Standing 475 00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,679 Speaker 1: Rock five years later who started their activist careers at 476 00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 1: occup Pie and bent a protests all over the country 477 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 1: Ever since, they've gotten good at organizing and it being organized. 478 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,919 Speaker 1: With a long enough history of unrest and street activism, 479 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:12,720 Speaker 1: a nation's people build up a sort of protest infrastructure 480 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 1: that can sustain hardcore resistance to the state for longer 481 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:18,639 Speaker 1: and longer periods of time. Occupy Wall Street was not 482 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,600 Speaker 1: good at sustaining itself, Standing Rock did better. Those protests 483 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 1: cost the state of North Dakota thirty nine million dollars 484 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 1: to suppress and cost the company building the pipeline as 485 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:31,640 Speaker 1: much as four point four billion. As time has gone 486 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,560 Speaker 1: on and political tensions have ratcheted up, the American people 487 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,439 Speaker 1: have grown more capable of resisting their government in the streets. 488 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,920 Speaker 1: In an organized way. Now, assuming all this happens later 489 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,400 Speaker 1: in two thousand nineteen or two twenty, this unrest would 490 00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,359 Speaker 1: be going on at the same time as the economy 491 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:50,359 Speaker 1: shifts its metaphorical pants. Most economists agree that our nation 492 00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,920 Speaker 1: is currently heading towards a pretty steeped fiscal cliff, and 493 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,639 Speaker 1: a quote from the Washington Post here, more than a 494 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,840 Speaker 1: third of top economic forecasters now predict a US recession 495 00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 1: in according to the latest blue Chip forecast, and forty 496 00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 1: percent of fund managers in the latest Bank of America 497 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 1: Maryland survey expect global growth to slow in the next year, 498 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,640 Speaker 1: the worst outlook for the world economy since November two 499 00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:13,720 Speaker 1: thousand eight. So let's say the economists are right and 500 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,240 Speaker 1: that happens, the economy slides off a ledge and into 501 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,280 Speaker 1: the goddamn sea. So in the middle of all these protests, 502 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,840 Speaker 1: all these murders, all this fury, there are waves of 503 00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,439 Speaker 1: layoffs and foreclosures. Not only does the greatest recession in 504 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,440 Speaker 1: a generation cause more unrest, more anger at Donald Trump 505 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,359 Speaker 1: and his fellow billionaires, but it frees a shipload of 506 00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:34,920 Speaker 1: people up for street activism. The recently laid off, the evicted, 507 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 1: the desperate, all flood the ranks of a left wing 508 00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 1: activist movement with enough experienced organizers to make use of them. Now, 509 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,959 Speaker 1: mass protests and bloody riots have long been a part 510 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,520 Speaker 1: of American life. So far, none of these has ever 511 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,080 Speaker 1: sparked a civil war. It's kind of like how literal 512 00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:52,199 Speaker 1: sparks don't always start fires. You need more than just 513 00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 1: a spark. You need fuel to burn, dry logs and 514 00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,160 Speaker 1: sticks with plenty of tender or big rolling hills covered 515 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,639 Speaker 1: in dead grass. In past bloody civil disturbances, like the 516 00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:05,040 Speaker 1: riots after Martin Luther King Junior's murder, the Kent State shootings, 517 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,639 Speaker 1: or the l A riots, there just wasn't enough fuel 518 00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:09,200 Speaker 1: in the rest of the country for the fire to 519 00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 1: release spread. Modern American history is filled with examples of 520 00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,879 Speaker 1: individuals who've tried to spark civil wars or revolutions in 521 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,480 Speaker 1: this country. That was the stated goal of the Columbine 522 00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 1: Shooters when they started their rampage. It was Tim mcveigh's 523 00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 1: goal when he bombed the Murra building in Oklahoma City. 524 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:27,360 Speaker 1: Neither of those sparks caught either. That's because the most 525 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 1: critical ingredient for any hypothetical civil war, the tinder for 526 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,720 Speaker 1: this blazing inferno exists in the hearts and minds of 527 00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:36,840 Speaker 1: the populace. Before a civil war can start. Before any 528 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 1: of this could be real enough, people have to want 529 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,400 Speaker 1: to kill their countrymen. I don't know if we're there yet, 530 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,560 Speaker 1: but I think we're getting close. In nineteen seventy two, 531 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,920 Speaker 1: the National Opinion Research Center carried out a survey rating 532 00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,159 Speaker 1: each region of the country based on what percentage of 533 00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 1: its population believed most people can be trusted. In the 534 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,359 Speaker 1: Old South the former Confederate States, that number ranged from 535 00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,399 Speaker 1: between thirty and forty In the rest of the country, 536 00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,880 Speaker 1: it was between fifty and seventy percent. The national average 537 00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:08,359 Speaker 1: was forty six point two percent. Now, in two thousand 538 00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 1: and twelve, the same n o r C survey found 539 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,640 Speaker 1: very different results. Most regions in the nation were well 540 00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:16,760 Speaker 1: under forty percent, with a national average dropping from forty 541 00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,639 Speaker 1: six point two percent to thirty two point four percent. 542 00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 1: Other surveys back up this unsettling trend up on our site. 543 00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,720 Speaker 1: It could happen here pod dot com will showcase a graph. 544 00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:29,400 Speaker 1: It charts the results from several decades worth of Pew 545 00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:32,880 Speaker 1: Survey questions from nineteen fifty eight to two thousand fifteen, 546 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,520 Speaker 1: all asking whether or not respondents quote trust the federal 547 00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:39,080 Speaker 1: government to do what is right just about always or 548 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:42,359 Speaker 1: most of the time. That number peaked at nearly eighty 549 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 1: percent of the population in nineteen sixty one. By two 550 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:48,320 Speaker 1: thousand fifteen, it had dropped to roughly twenty percent. With 551 00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 1: some brief spikes during the Carter administration and immediately after 552 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,960 Speaker 1: September eleventh, the graph has shown a shockingly steady rate 553 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,720 Speaker 1: of decline. There's actually a huge amount of data the 554 00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:01,560 Speaker 1: tracks that decline in trust among Americans toward our fellow Americans. Edelman, 555 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 1: a global communications marketing firm, has run a trust barometer 556 00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,919 Speaker 1: for several years now. It marked a fourteen percent decline 557 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,280 Speaker 1: and trust of the US government from two thousand seventeen 558 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,480 Speaker 1: to two thousand eighteen. Trust in businesses, in in g 559 00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:17,320 Speaker 1: O s, and in the media all suffered similarly steep declines. 560 00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,440 Speaker 1: These are the sharpest drops Adelman has seen in its 561 00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:24,000 Speaker 1: eighteen years of measuring trust. Here's Richard Edelman, head of 562 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,960 Speaker 1: the firm, quote. This is the first time that a 563 00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:28,879 Speaker 1: massive drop in trust has not been linked to a 564 00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:32,159 Speaker 1: pressing economic issue or catastrophe like Japan's two thousand and 565 00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,879 Speaker 1: eleven Fukushima nuclear disaster. In fact, it's the ultimate irony 566 00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:38,080 Speaker 1: that it's happening at a time of prosperity, with the 567 00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 1: stock market and unemployment rates in the US at record 568 00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,880 Speaker 1: highs Now, it's worth noting that this quote from Edelman 569 00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:47,680 Speaker 1: came from a January two thousand eighteen Atlantic article. Back then, 570 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:52,080 Speaker 1: the economy was booming. Uh, it is currently somewhat less booming. 571 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,920 Speaker 1: And uh, it's my opinion that we're unlikely to trust 572 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,120 Speaker 1: each other more in the midst of the deep recession 573 00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,959 Speaker 1: most economists say is coming now. Back in two fourteen, 574 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:04,400 Speaker 1: only twenty percent of California residents supported peaceful secession from 575 00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,960 Speaker 1: the United States. By January of two thousand seventeen, thirty 576 00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 1: three percent of California supported secession. This poll was talking 577 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,360 Speaker 1: about peaceful secession. Of course, Californians aren't champing at the 578 00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:16,640 Speaker 1: bit to take up arms against the Union, but the 579 00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 1: numbers are still compelling. Only sixty percent of California Republicans 580 00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:23,880 Speaker 1: were against the idea of a peaceful secession. Data from 581 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,800 Speaker 1: the other states supports this simple fact. More Americans and 582 00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,640 Speaker 1: more states now support secession than at any point within 583 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,720 Speaker 1: the lifetime of anyone listening to this podcast. Nationwide, two 584 00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:37,160 Speaker 1: percent of Americans support their state secceeding. One way to 585 00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,720 Speaker 1: look at this is that seventy eight percent of Americans 586 00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,480 Speaker 1: don't want to seceed. But it's worth noting that back 587 00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:45,320 Speaker 1: when the whole Revolutionary War thing kicked off, most people 588 00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:48,240 Speaker 1: in the colonies did not support seceeding from Great Britain, 589 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,960 Speaker 1: or at least not openly. Now, obviously, Epsos and Gallop 590 00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,520 Speaker 1: weren't doing surveys back then, people still drank mercury to 591 00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:57,600 Speaker 1: cure their colds. Statistics were not anyone's back in seventeen 592 00:29:57,640 --> 00:29:59,960 Speaker 1: seventy six, but historians have spent a lot of time 593 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,240 Speaker 1: trying to figure out precisely how many people in the 594 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 1: thirteen colonies supported independence. Most estimates you'll find suggest that 595 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 1: about a third of colonists were loyal to the crown, 596 00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:10,760 Speaker 1: a third were fence sitters who didn't really land on 597 00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:12,920 Speaker 1: either side of the issue, and only a third of 598 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,600 Speaker 1: early Americans actively supported the revolution. So if that's the 599 00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:20,240 Speaker 1: threshold three percent, while then the twenty tent of Americans 600 00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:22,960 Speaker 1: who currently support secession is a little bit more worrying, 601 00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:26,320 Speaker 1: and it gets worrying or because this increased support for 602 00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:30,040 Speaker 1: the idea of secession has occurred alongside something darker. More 603 00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:33,520 Speaker 1: Americans hate their fellow Americans now than at any point 604 00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:35,840 Speaker 1: in living memory. I'd like to quote from a two 605 00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:40,440 Speaker 1: thousand sixteen Pew Research Center report on partisanship and political animosity. 606 00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,720 Speaker 1: Quote for the first time and surveys dating back to 607 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:46,680 Speaker 1: nineteen nine, two majorities in both parties expressed not just 608 00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:50,680 Speaker 1: unfavorable but very unfavorable views of the other party, and today, 609 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,600 Speaker 1: sizeable shares of both Democrats and Republicans say the other 610 00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:57,000 Speaker 1: party stirs feelings of not just frustration, but fear and anger. 611 00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:00,880 Speaker 1: More than half of Democrats say they're publican party makes 612 00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:03,800 Speaker 1: them afraid, while forty percent of Republicans say the same 613 00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:07,080 Speaker 1: about the Democratic Party. Among those highly engaged in politics, 614 00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,520 Speaker 1: those who say they vote regularly and either volunteer for 615 00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:13,640 Speaker 1: or donate to campaigns, fully seventy of Democrats and scent 616 00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,600 Speaker 1: of Republicans say they are afraid of the other party. 617 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,080 Speaker 1: This increasing fear has led both sides to arm themselves 618 00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:24,080 Speaker 1: to an unprecedented level. That's been happening on the right 619 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,520 Speaker 1: since at least two thousand eight, but the American left 620 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,760 Speaker 1: has not been associated with gun ownership until recently. In 621 00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,120 Speaker 1: the wake of the two thousand sixteen election, the BBC 622 00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,120 Speaker 1: published an article titled y U s liberals are now 623 00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:39,960 Speaker 1: buying guns too quote FBI background checks for gun transactions 624 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:41,960 Speaker 1: sewed to a new record for a single day, a 625 00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:44,720 Speaker 1: hundred and eighty five thousand, seven hundred and thirteen during 626 00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,560 Speaker 1: the Black Friday sales on twenty five November. Some of 627 00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:49,640 Speaker 1: this has been put down to gun retailers selling off 628 00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 1: stock at reduced prices, but there have also been reports 629 00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:54,920 Speaker 1: of more non traditional buyers, such as African Americans and 630 00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,640 Speaker 1: other minorities, turning up at gun shops and shooting ranges. 631 00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,800 Speaker 1: Laura Smith, national spokesperson for the a Rural Gun Club, 632 00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:04,040 Speaker 1: says her organization has seen a huge rise in inquiries 633 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:07,400 Speaker 1: since November's election and a ten percent increase in paid members. 634 00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:11,080 Speaker 1: In the years since Trump's election and the subsequent street 635 00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,959 Speaker 1: fighting between fascist and anti fascists, there have been a 636 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:17,880 Speaker 1: surge in new left wing gun organizations. These include Redneck Revolt, 637 00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:21,240 Speaker 1: the John Brown Gun Club, and the Socialist Rifle Association. 638 00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:24,440 Speaker 1: There are now numerous left wing and right wing political 639 00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,720 Speaker 1: groups that center their identities around being armed advocates of 640 00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:31,880 Speaker 1: a political ideology. Back in two thousand sixteen, before any 641 00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:34,680 Speaker 1: of those far left gun groups existed, former State Department 642 00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:38,560 Speaker 1: strategist David Kilcolin told me this quote. I think what 643 00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 1: we're seeing now is what I would describe as a 644 00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,760 Speaker 1: proto insurgency situation. The ingredients are out there. If somebody 645 00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:45,640 Speaker 1: knew what they were doing, they could pull together in 646 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,160 Speaker 1: effective movement. In places like Kurdistan, you see political parties 647 00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,680 Speaker 1: that have their own armed wing. Every political party has 648 00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,920 Speaker 1: its own armed wing. It's an artifact of a broken 649 00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:57,080 Speaker 1: political system that people start arming themselves just in case. 650 00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:00,080 Speaker 1: I might be arming defensively and that looks offensive to you, 651 00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:03,720 Speaker 1: and it starts to escalate. On my first trip to Iraq, 652 00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:06,680 Speaker 1: I was embedded with the Peshmerga, a Kurdish military force 653 00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:09,240 Speaker 1: made up primarily of soldiers loyal to the two major 654 00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:12,560 Speaker 1: Kurdish political parties. It's the equivalent of the Republican and 655 00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:15,920 Speaker 1: Democratic parties each having armed wings. That sounds silly to 656 00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:18,960 Speaker 1: imagine here in America, but only because most Americans trust 657 00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 1: their political process more than they trusted gun. That trust 658 00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:25,640 Speaker 1: erodes a little more every day. As Adelman researcher David 659 00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:29,520 Speaker 1: bursof explained to The Atlantic quote, the lifeblood of democracy 660 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,960 Speaker 1: is a common understanding of the facts and information that 661 00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:34,239 Speaker 1: we can then use as a basis for negotiation and 662 00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:37,200 Speaker 1: for compromise. When that goes away, the whole foundation of 663 00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:41,920 Speaker 1: democracy gets shaken. On a campaign stop in February, presidential 664 00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:45,320 Speaker 1: candidate Elizabeth Warren publicly questioned whether or not Donald Trump 665 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,720 Speaker 1: would even be a free person in a lot of 666 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,920 Speaker 1: people want the president at least impeached. Imagine how much 667 00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:54,360 Speaker 1: more firm and more aggressive the calls to force him 668 00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:56,280 Speaker 1: out of office will become in the wake of mass 669 00:33:56,360 --> 00:34:00,479 Speaker 1: rioting and protests. Thirty eight percent of Americans roughly support 670 00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:02,800 Speaker 1: the wall. Donald Trump just called a state of emergency 671 00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:06,000 Speaker 1: to build. That number probably represents a pretty good estimate 672 00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:09,880 Speaker 1: for his floor of support. There is ideologically nothing but 673 00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:13,080 Speaker 1: daylight between these people and the liberals they despise. There 674 00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,360 Speaker 1: are already calls on the far right for the president 675 00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:19,000 Speaker 1: to assume what amounts to dictatorial powers. On January nine, 676 00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:22,160 Speaker 1: two thousand nineteen, President Donald Trump addressed the nation on 677 00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,480 Speaker 1: what he called the border crisis. Rampant speculation at the 678 00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:28,080 Speaker 1: time theorized that he would declare a state of emergency 679 00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:31,720 Speaker 1: that night. Here's what Alex Jones's guest Mike Adams wanted 680 00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:34,880 Speaker 1: the president to do. It's the appropriate role of the military. 681 00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:38,160 Speaker 1: It's a constitutional role for the military to defend the borders. 682 00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:41,480 Speaker 1: And also, by the way, Alice, you know posse commentatus. 683 00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:45,120 Speaker 1: It prevents the military from acting as police on the 684 00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:48,600 Speaker 1: streets of America, but it does not prevent military police 685 00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:53,239 Speaker 1: from pursuing enemy combatants and domestic enemies of America who 686 00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:57,400 Speaker 1: are on American soil. Military police can be dispatched to 687 00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:01,600 Speaker 1: arrest and seek out treason US traders, you know, war criminals, 688 00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,640 Speaker 1: enemy combatants who are on US soil that there is 689 00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:07,319 Speaker 1: no restriction against that. Let's just keep all of this 690 00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:10,879 Speaker 1: in mind because America is under attack now. Alex Jones 691 00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,600 Speaker 1: has been suggesting that the president violently suppresses enemies for 692 00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:16,919 Speaker 1: quite some time. Dan host of the fantastic Alex Jones 693 00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:19,719 Speaker 1: focused podcast Knowledge Fight, sent me this clip from a 694 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:23,239 Speaker 1: show in mid two thousand seventeen. Donald Trump could have 695 00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:28,200 Speaker 1: them all arrested, just like Lincoln did. Lincoln had members 696 00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:31,080 Speaker 1: of the State Department arrested, Lincoln had judges arrested, and 697 00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:34,480 Speaker 1: hundreds of newspaper editors arrested because they were in open 698 00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:38,000 Speaker 1: sedition falling for the overthrow of the Republic. There's already 699 00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:41,040 Speaker 1: some evidence that President Trump's most violent fans are willing 700 00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,240 Speaker 1: to go out shooting in order to ensure his political survival. 701 00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,880 Speaker 1: Early in two thousand nineteen, Coast Guard Lieutenant Christopher Hasson 702 00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,480 Speaker 1: was busted by the FBI with a kill list of 703 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:53,800 Speaker 1: the president's political enemies and a sizeable arsenal. In the 704 00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:57,440 Speaker 1: weeks prior to his arrest, Hassen's Google searches included what 705 00:35:57,600 --> 00:36:02,239 Speaker 1: if Trump illegally impeached? And civil war if Trump impeached. 706 00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:06,280 Speaker 1: In a situation where President Trump's very political survival is imperiled, 707 00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:09,040 Speaker 1: and where police around the country find themselves overwhelmed and 708 00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:11,920 Speaker 1: pushed past the breaking point, it's not hard to imagine 709 00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,879 Speaker 1: Donald Trump turning to his most fervent supporters for help, 710 00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:19,280 Speaker 1: militiaman and so called Second Amendment people like Lieutenant Hassan. 711 00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:22,960 Speaker 1: He already called on those folks quickly during the election. 712 00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:25,640 Speaker 1: You think there's no chance he would call for violence 713 00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:29,160 Speaker 1: if his freedom was at stake. Michael Cohen, donald Trump's 714 00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:32,560 Speaker 1: lawyer and close confident for fifteen years seems to hold 715 00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:34,799 Speaker 1: the same worries I do. Near the end of his 716 00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:38,800 Speaker 1: multi hour house hearing in February two thousand nineteen, Cohen 717 00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:43,720 Speaker 1: made these closing remarks, indeed, give him my experience working 718 00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:47,040 Speaker 1: for mister Trump. I fear that if he loses the 719 00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:50,080 Speaker 1: election in twenty twenty, that there will never be a 720 00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:54,000 Speaker 1: peaceful transition of power. And this is why I agreed 721 00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:57,440 Speaker 1: to appear before you today. In the event the president 722 00:36:57,480 --> 00:36:59,600 Speaker 1: was impeached or in the likelier event he has voted 723 00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:03,480 Speaker 1: out of the threat of violence is very real. When 724 00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:07,120 Speaker 1: I first wrote those words in February of two thousand nineteen, 725 00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:11,399 Speaker 1: it did seem kind of unlikely to me that that that, 726 00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:14,719 Speaker 1: you know, the president would call on militia's to help 727 00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,600 Speaker 1: him maintain power. But then, just a couple of weeks 728 00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:20,080 Speaker 1: after I wrote those words, in an interview with bright 729 00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:24,120 Speaker 1: Bart News, President Donald Trump said this, I can tell 730 00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:26,560 Speaker 1: you I have the support of the police, the support 731 00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:29,280 Speaker 1: of the military, the support of the bikers for Trump. 732 00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:31,719 Speaker 1: I have the tough people, but they don't play it 733 00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:34,239 Speaker 1: tough until they go to a certain point, and then 734 00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:37,239 Speaker 1: it would be very bad, very bad. And let me 735 00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:41,320 Speaker 1: note just for your reference. When I listened to Alex 736 00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:45,000 Speaker 1: Jones speak at the Republican National Convention in two thousand sixteen, 737 00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:49,360 Speaker 1: the armed security for that event where the Bikers for Trump, 738 00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:03,200 Speaker 1: tens of thousands of Americans on the far right are 739 00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:06,440 Speaker 1: already preparing for violence. It's an almost religious belief for 740 00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:08,640 Speaker 1: some of them. If you spend enough time browsing q 741 00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:11,719 Speaker 1: and On Focus sub credits and Twitter conversations, you will 742 00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:14,840 Speaker 1: find ample evidence of this. These people believe, with a 743 00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:17,799 Speaker 1: dedication of a cultist, that the Democratic Party is the 744 00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:21,279 Speaker 1: center of a vast pedophilic conspiracy. There have already been 745 00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:24,239 Speaker 1: three attacks by deranged q and On followers, including one 746 00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:27,160 Speaker 1: man who tried to block off transit to the Hoover Dam. 747 00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:29,360 Speaker 1: It was an attempt to force the president to openly 748 00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:32,560 Speaker 1: go after his political enemies. As the days and weeks 749 00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:35,280 Speaker 1: where on, the hardened core of Q and On believers 750 00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:38,440 Speaker 1: grow angrier and more prone to violence. Here's one post 751 00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:41,040 Speaker 1: I found on a r fifteen dot com, the largest 752 00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,560 Speaker 1: firearms forum on the Internet. It's from a thread full 753 00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:46,680 Speaker 1: of q and On discussion. Quote. The left is used 754 00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:48,680 Speaker 1: to getting their way, so much so that they will 755 00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:51,200 Speaker 1: do anything to retain their power. If we the people 756 00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:53,760 Speaker 1: truly desire to remain free, then we shall, in small 757 00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:56,160 Speaker 1: or large groups, have to do what can be done. 758 00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:58,680 Speaker 1: And here's another post from a q and on fan. 759 00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:00,839 Speaker 1: I found part of a Twitter change in which one 760 00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:04,120 Speaker 1: person threatened the impeachment of Donald Trump and called the 761 00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:07,640 Speaker 1: Q and Honor a cultist. Go ahead, my cult is winning. 762 00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:10,000 Speaker 1: And after you placed articles of impeachment, you just wait 763 00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:12,160 Speaker 1: to see how many patriots pick up their guns and 764 00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:14,680 Speaker 1: solve this problem. You may want to join my cult 765 00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,320 Speaker 1: before it's too late for you and your family and friends. 766 00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:21,520 Speaker 1: How many deaths would it take? How many soldiers deployed 767 00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:24,200 Speaker 1: to quell the rioting before we'd recognize this conflict as 768 00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:27,400 Speaker 1: what it was the Second American Civil War? That fact 769 00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,239 Speaker 1: is anyone's guess. But every society has a breaking point, 770 00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,880 Speaker 1: and I can guarantee you that point would take almost 771 00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:36,480 Speaker 1: everyone by surprise. That's sort of how conflict starts. It 772 00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:40,600 Speaker 1: boils up from protests since police violence and builds to gunfights, bombings, 773 00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:43,640 Speaker 1: and dead cities. Back in two thousand sixteen, when I 774 00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:46,160 Speaker 1: was working on that Civil War article for Cracked, I 775 00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:49,759 Speaker 1: interviewed Status Calvious. He's a scholar who specifically studies the 776 00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:52,440 Speaker 1: sociology of civil wars, and he's also the survivor of 777 00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:55,160 Speaker 1: a civil war. During our interview, I brought up some 778 00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:58,080 Speaker 1: of my experiences in Ukraine, conversations i'd had with people 779 00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:00,640 Speaker 1: who'd been at the Maidawn. I mentioned the status that 780 00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:02,920 Speaker 1: these people had all felt bewildered by the speed with 781 00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:06,759 Speaker 1: which the situation had gone from protests to shooting. Statis 782 00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:10,200 Speaker 1: told me this quote, what most other people experienced in 783 00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:12,320 Speaker 1: civil wars is that they seemed to come out of nowhere. 784 00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:15,320 Speaker 1: Everybody shocked, even the people who are studying these conflicts. 785 00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:18,440 Speaker 1: There is an element of contingency always present. It's more 786 00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:20,680 Speaker 1: about that kind of sense of shock and fear and 787 00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:22,799 Speaker 1: loss of trust and security, which I think is one 788 00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:26,040 Speaker 1: of the key features of any civil war. I found 789 00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:29,200 Speaker 1: another salient quote in a Fortune article from eighteen talking 790 00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:31,760 Speaker 1: about how the Brexit vote had spurred support for secession 791 00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:35,400 Speaker 1: among many Americans. The speaker is Sanford Levinson, a polypy 792 00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:39,200 Speaker 1: professor of the University at Texas at Austin. Quote. I 793 00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:41,960 Speaker 1: grew up assuming the Soviet Union was simply part of 794 00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:44,120 Speaker 1: the status quo. All of us grew up assuming the 795 00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:46,719 Speaker 1: United Kingdom was part of the furniture. Why do we 796 00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:52,000 Speaker 1: think the United States is etched in Stone? On two 797 00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,359 Speaker 1: thousand seventeen, Jeremy Christian got on a Portland max Light 798 00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:59,319 Speaker 1: rail train. Christian had an extensive violent criminal history. He 799 00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:01,520 Speaker 1: was also a member of the far right protest group 800 00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:05,880 Speaker 1: Patriot Prayer. One popular clothing item among Patriot Prayer members 801 00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:08,760 Speaker 1: is a T shirt with pinochet did Nothing Wrong written 802 00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:11,560 Speaker 1: on the front and r w DS written on the 803 00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:16,319 Speaker 1: sleeves that stands for right Wing Death Squad. During his ride, 804 00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:19,960 Speaker 1: Jeremy Christian saw two young Muslim teenage girls. He began 805 00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:23,759 Speaker 1: cursing at them and hurling racial epithets. Three male passengers 806 00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,120 Speaker 1: intervened and tried to get him to back down. He 807 00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:28,480 Speaker 1: pulled a knife, stabbing two of them to death and 808 00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:32,120 Speaker 1: critically wounding the third. When police took him away, Jeremy 809 00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:37,400 Speaker 1: Christian shouted, that's what liberalism gets you. Whatever else you 810 00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:39,680 Speaker 1: take out of this episode, I want you to remember 811 00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:43,640 Speaker 1: one thing. The Second American Civil War is not theoretical 812 00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:47,920 Speaker 1: for everybody. For some people, it's already started. They're just 813 00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:53,200 Speaker 1: waiting for the rest of us to catch up. Most times, 814 00:41:53,920 --> 00:42:04,080 Speaker 1: gun shots are chair vows. Round here huh cool. Sleep 815 00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:17,200 Speaker 1: We could show sleep time the chair repos me. Come, 816 00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:35,359 Speaker 1: we don't fight, we don't right. Even when we don't fight, 817 00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:41,319 Speaker 1: we don't right. Even when I'm Robert Evans and I'm 818 00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:44,120 Speaker 1: just exhausted from reading all of that. You can find 819 00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,200 Speaker 1: me on Twitter at I right, okay. You can find 820 00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:49,759 Speaker 1: this show on Twitter at happen here pod, and you 821 00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:52,200 Speaker 1: can find the show online at it could happen here 822 00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:56,080 Speaker 1: pod dot com. Our music, as always, is from four 823 00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:56,560 Speaker 1: Fists