Speaker 1: Check it down, man now, down now, and I'm just
Speaker 1: called the scoring all. This is a numbers game with
Speaker 1: Gill Alexander. It is a numbers game. Good Monday morning
Speaker 1: to you, Gil Alexander. Week ten Guessing Lines in the
Speaker 1: National Football League. It's Gill Alexander, of course, the start
Speaker 1: of the show each and every Monday. Here Christie andrews
Speaker 1: my Mitch book from behind the desk gear at the
Speaker 1: South Point Hotel Casino. Jeff Parlay is here as well.
Speaker 1: If you're new to the Monday edition of a Numbers Game.
Speaker 1: Guessing Lines is a tribute, a nod to the old
Speaker 1: Stardust radio show of the same ilk from back in
Speaker 1: the day, and nod to old Vegas where the exercises
Speaker 1: that I'm in a cocoon. I hear the matchups, and
Speaker 1: I come up with a line, and Christie tells me
Speaker 1: what he is going to post, and within that exercise
Speaker 1: we try to extract some firsthand value. It's the upcoming
Speaker 1: week's line, and of course what we do while doing
Speaker 1: that is look back at everything that happened yesterday and Chris,
Speaker 1: first of all, good morning to you, Good morning, Good morning, Jeff.
Speaker 1: We came in you came in the studio and Jeff,
Speaker 1: Jeff says, is that one of your top three days
Speaker 1: of all time? And I said, how about top one?
Speaker 1: And you said top one, best day you've ever had ever? Well,
Speaker 1: here at the south point, here at the south point. Well,
Speaker 1: good for you, Well, thank you, thank you for me.
Speaker 1: Rud will split it. How's that sound? I will begin
Speaker 1: the show as I do always. Ladies and gentlemen, you
Speaker 1: can hit the survivor record scratch sounder. This is what happened. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's the enemy. I did not survive the carnage. Who
Speaker 1: thank you for that as well as luck would have it.
Speaker 1: I was also on Jacksonville radio this morning, which was
Speaker 1: just even crueler than anything. I had the bills yesterday.
Speaker 1: Um it in the end, the bills, and we'll get
Speaker 1: to the bills just looked horrible, just horrible against the
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars. Um. But my whole, my whole calculus on
Speaker 1: this was I didn't trust the Saints, probably correctly, so
Speaker 1: I was never going to take Dallas. I had already
Speaker 1: used Indian casey. I didn't trust Baltimore, and even though
Speaker 1: that got home, I think I was right not to
Speaker 1: trust that very lucky to get home. And so my
Speaker 1: whole thing was, you know what, I'm using one of
Speaker 1: my two Thanksgiving plays. I'm using the Bills because I
Speaker 1: still have Dallas ready to go. Then I don't trust
Speaker 1: the Bills. I think the Bills are really fraudulent team.
Speaker 1: They haven't beaten anybody, So I'm gonna use them against Jacksonville.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get away with that one because they're still
Speaker 1: they can bully up on Jacksonville. And then we'll talk
Speaker 1: next week. Nope, let me last thing about this. Let
Speaker 1: me just rank what is so dist what is so
Speaker 1: distraught and what makes you so distraught about losing a survivor.
Speaker 1: A distant third is that you lost your money that
Speaker 1: you paid before they say, you don't even care about that. Second,
Speaker 1: the money you could have one or you thought you
Speaker 1: might be a participant in splitting at the end of
Speaker 1: the season. That's number two. But you know the number
Speaker 1: one thing is that you just don't get to play
Speaker 1: it anymore. It's so much fun from a week to
Speaker 1: sirt basis. And anyway, those are survivor entries eliminated. Uh
Speaker 1: two forty nine were on the Bills. A hundred twenty
Speaker 1: two were on the Saints, A hundred eleven on the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: This was the remaining eleven hundred plus in circa and
Speaker 1: then some straight Rams, Raiders, Niners, and Bengals. We'll see
Speaker 1: about the Steelers tonight. That was the other team I
Speaker 1: didn't trust. So the Steelers lose tonight that I have
Speaker 1: no regrets whatsoever. Yeah, well, you know, we talked a
Speaker 1: little bit about it before the show, so I'm not
Speaker 1: supposed to talk anymore. It was it was carnage for
Speaker 1: us to let's just put it. Okay, we'll leave it
Speaker 1: at that. What's number one, Jeffrey, Good morning, guys, Good morning,
Speaker 1: Thursday night. Baltimore a Miami, Yes, Baltimore, Miami Thursday Night.
Speaker 1: So Baltimore is a potential I would imagine survivor pick
Speaker 1: for those moving on who still have them. Baltimore comes
Speaker 1: from way behind to beat Minnesota. They were down twenty
Speaker 1: four to ten. Baltimore was to Minnesota early in the
Speaker 1: third quarter, and we'll get to Minnesota layer good God.
Speaker 1: Three straight touchdown drives from the Ravens the middle, one
Speaker 1: of which the second of those three was in eighteen play,
Speaker 1: eighty two yard ten minutes and seventeen second drive and
Speaker 1: they outscored him. From being down twenty four to ten,
Speaker 1: they outscored the Vikings to seven the rest of the way.
Speaker 1: Baltimore uh fourth and two at their own thirty six,
Speaker 1: down twenty four to ten with twelve thirty nine left
Speaker 1: in the third quarter, they convert eventually leads to a
Speaker 1: fourth and goal at the one in a touchdown pass
Speaker 1: to make it twenty four to seventeen. Subsequent drive, fourth
Speaker 1: and one at their own twenty seven, this time down
Speaker 1: to seventeen to nineteen left in the third quarter, they
Speaker 1: go for it, sneak convert that leads to score. That
Speaker 1: was the ten seventeen drive, the longest touchdown drive since
Speaker 1: two thousand for that franchise. That's what it took. They
Speaker 1: just kept going for fourth and short in their own
Speaker 1: t ratory. They didn't care. They got it done and
Speaker 1: they win. Lamar forty one for two sixty six, three touchdowns,
Speaker 1: two picks, sack three times, twenty one carries for a
Speaker 1: hundred twenty yards, so three touchdown passes in a hundred
Speaker 1: twenty yards on the ground. He's twelve and oh straight
Speaker 1: up all time versus the NFC. Make of that what
Speaker 1: you will Marky's Hollywood Brown nine of nine catches for
Speaker 1: one sixteen. The Ravens out first down to the Vikings
Speaker 1: thirty six to thirteen. Wow, good god, five hundred total yards.
Speaker 1: They out gained the Vikings five hundred three eighteen and
Speaker 1: the and the Ravens were minus two in turnovers and
Speaker 1: still won this game. They had a forty six oh
Speaker 1: four to twenty three forty in time of possession. Remember
Speaker 1: went to overtime, and so that's the Ravens coming back
Speaker 1: their six and two Yet again, seems you look up
Speaker 1: every year after eight games and they're six and two.
Speaker 1: Miami beats Houston in the Battle of one and Seven's
Speaker 1: was the only it's only the second game in NFL
Speaker 1: history between two one and seven teams. They snapped their
Speaker 1: seven game losing streak to announced for the game, Like,
Speaker 1: how do they keep this under wraps all week? We
Speaker 1: don't know. It's like, oh, it's gonna be Jacoby percent.
Speaker 1: And I'm thinking all those people had the Dolphins. By
Speaker 1: the way, as soon as they announced Rod Taylor was
Speaker 1: playing Friday, the Dolphins were out for me too. So
Speaker 1: they get Jacoby percent on top of it and they
Speaker 1: win snapped their seven game losing streak. Uh, there's four
Speaker 1: takeaways and five The Dolphins had four takeaways and five sacks,
Speaker 1: zero touchdowns allowed forty four one touchdown, two pick, sack
Speaker 1: four times. Waddle was as big as target eight for
Speaker 1: eighty three, but they were out gained by Texas excuse
Speaker 1: by the by Houston to seventy two to two sixty two.
Speaker 1: Dolphins only had forty seven yards rushing the Hall's Houston
Speaker 1: to only fourteen first downs, had five turnovers to Houston's
Speaker 1: four toners. Maagin had five turnovers. You want a football game?
Speaker 1: Nine total sacks in this game too? This was This
Speaker 1: game was a picasso. There's no other way to say it.
Speaker 1: Dolphins seventeen, Texans nine. I'll say Baltimore minus seven and
Speaker 1: a half on the road Thursday night. Uh, you're you're
Speaker 1: pretty much right on It's well, it's mostly seven. I
Speaker 1: see seven with little juice on the favorite. I see
Speaker 1: a seven flat see seven a half juice on the dog.
Speaker 1: My numbers are way higher than this. I gotta tell you,
Speaker 1: I think Miami is just horrible. I mentioned it last week.
Speaker 1: I think when you have one veteran team going against
Speaker 1: a non veteran team. I give the veteran team a
Speaker 1: much bigger edge in these Thursday night games. I mean,
Speaker 1: I had this thing double digits. You know, I think
Speaker 1: Miami is just horrible. They beat a horrible, horrible team
Speaker 1: yesterday and looked horrible in doing it. And like you said,
Speaker 1: the Ravens here they are six and two once again.
Speaker 1: But you know, you look back at the Ravens, they
Speaker 1: have not been unimpressive. I mean they keep winning games.
Speaker 1: You know, somewhere psychologically we we we have not been
Speaker 1: impressed with them. But I think you look back, they're
Speaker 1: they're pretty, They're they're they're a legit team. Anyway, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna open seven and a half flat. You want to
Speaker 1: come in and take that seven and a half, folks,
Speaker 1: lay eleven and ten, which you can't do anywhere else
Speaker 1: in the world at this point time. Be my guest,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be available for you right here at the
Speaker 1: South seven and a half, right on the money. All right,
Speaker 1: what's the first Sunday morning, Jeff Jacksonville in Indianapolis? Do
Speaker 1: we have to already? So Indianapolis coming off the extra rest,
Speaker 1: Remember they beat the Jets on Thursday night almost the
Speaker 1: greatest backdoor cover in the history of mankind from the Jets.
Speaker 1: Not quite Wentz thirty two seventy two, three touchdown though
Speaker 1: picksack once Taylor nineteen for one seventy two, two touchdowns
Speaker 1: on the ground, hinds six or seventy four on the
Speaker 1: ground with the touchdown. Pittman Junior five catches sixty four
Speaker 1: yards for and and a touchdown. They had five hundred
Speaker 1: thirty two yards in that game against the Jets, but
Speaker 1: they gave up four eighty six. But two hundred sixty
Speaker 1: rushing yards was the difference. They were plus two in turnovers. Okay,
Speaker 1: Jacksonville yesterday, talk about teams. You said Dolphins look bad
Speaker 1: in victory. Jacksonville beats the Bills nine to six, and
Speaker 1: and it's like, Okay, I don't know if this says
Speaker 1: anything about Jacksonville, but it sure says a lot about
Speaker 1: the Bills. Who looks so soft yesterday? Trevor Lawrence fifteen
Speaker 1: of twenty six for one eighteen one eighteen chrissy, no touchdowns,
Speaker 1: no picks, He was sacked twice. He had a four
Speaker 1: point five four yards per attempt in the win. That's
Speaker 1: the second lowest such figure this season for a starting
Speaker 1: quarterback in victory. The worst of those numbers starting quarterback
Speaker 1: in victories coming later on the show. So four point
Speaker 1: five for yards for attempt for Lawrence and victory. The
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars only had sixteen first downs. They only had
Speaker 1: two hundred and eighteen total yards were out Game three
Speaker 1: wanted to eighteen, but they were plus two in turnovers.
Speaker 1: They took the ball away three times. They had an
Speaker 1: NFL low two takeaways in their first seven games of
Speaker 1: the season. Now, there was a couple of things on
Speaker 1: this This is the first of all, was my first
Speaker 1: road Survivor pick of the year of the year two.
Speaker 1: There was a couple of things right with the right
Speaker 1: tackle of the Jaguars probably false starts every single play
Speaker 1: and they never call it. But oh well, Buffalo had
Speaker 1: fourth and two at the Jacksonville thirty eight. They false started.
Speaker 1: That looked very much like an off sides on Jacksonville
Speaker 1: like the other way. And Scott Hanson, by the way,
Speaker 1: do you watch the red zone, the non direct TV
Speaker 1: red zone. Scott Hanson was killing me yesterday this Josh
Speaker 1: Allen sacking Josh Allen thing where he also had to
Speaker 1: pick in a fumble recovery. He could not stop talking
Speaker 1: about it, maybe ten times. The Jaguars first win in
Speaker 1: North America, their first win in Jacksonville since Week one
Speaker 1: of last season. I hate myself, uh jacksonvilleity. I'll say
Speaker 1: Indie minus eight and a half sp the difference between
Speaker 1: the seven and the ten. It's well, it's ten, and
Speaker 1: I see ten and a half my numbers coming like thirteen.
Speaker 1: I am not buying into this jackson But I don't
Speaker 1: like the Colts either. Well, I I've said it before
Speaker 1: and they you know, they definitely stumbled against Tennessee two
Speaker 1: weeks ago. I think the Colts are finally starting to
Speaker 1: get it together a little bit. I really do, and
Speaker 1: I think they've been kind of on that version. Now.
Speaker 1: Do I trust Carson Wentz all the way through? Not really?
Speaker 1: But do I trust him against Jacksonville. Yes. So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna open this ten and a half. I see mostly well,
Speaker 1: I see ten and ten and a half. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: have ten and a half. If I see this trend
Speaker 1: higher in any way, shape or form, I'm gonna go higher.
Speaker 1: But right now we'll be at the top of the market,
Speaker 1: which is ten and a half. Um So but I
Speaker 1: I could have the culture. Nobody here. I could not
Speaker 1: play the Jaguars. I know they won. Yesterday looked ridiculously bad.
Speaker 1: It's so bad. And and for those who are like, wait,
Speaker 1: if Chrissie has it right north of ten, you must
Speaker 1: be running about the Jack Garth. No, I'm not. No,
Speaker 1: I'm not oh so bad. You don't want to get
Speaker 1: trampled by everybody else running to that ten and a
Speaker 1: half just stands up, moving the women and the children
Speaker 1: out of the way to get rid of the fire.
Speaker 1: I will not be that guy. Okay, just starting guessing
Speaker 1: lines looking for value, Chris, he's posting the ten and
Speaker 1: a half. Then there ten and a half. Just starting.
Speaker 1: We'll keep it going with guessing lines for week ten,
Speaker 1: reviewing all the carnage from yesterday. The National Football League,
Speaker 1: it's a numbers game at Feast and these sports betting networks,
Speaker 1: Gail Alexander, Christie Andrews do a little guessing lines for
Speaker 1: week number ten in the National Football You can't believe
Speaker 1: we're week ten. We got tweets at beating the book.
Speaker 1: Marcus Phillips, our friend Marcus from Spain, from Espana. He says,
Speaker 1: I'm getting off the hype train of Kyle Shanahan being
Speaker 1: a good coach personally has run out of excuses in
Speaker 1: San Francisco. His record shows who he is, especially as
Speaker 1: he chooses the players every year, and he is very irregular.
Speaker 1: Irregular might be a language mediocre. I think, he says.
Speaker 1: I saw that tweet. I think Marcus is right on.
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, well, yeah, we'll get to that. Yeah, well, Mike,
Speaker 1: this is Eric Eager from Pro Football Focus had this
Speaker 1: stat the other week. Kyle Shanahan's winning percentage is the
Speaker 1: coach of the San Francisco forty niners is worse than
Speaker 1: Mike's single terries was WHOA, that's exactly wow. I reacted.
Speaker 1: I didn't believe it. I had to look it up.
Speaker 1: That's how flabbergas that was. Beat cricket man Mr Andrews
Speaker 1: has to be the most reasonable and likable bookie in
Speaker 1: the world. It's like getting gambling advice from your favorite grandpa.
Speaker 1: How do you take to that last word that's flattered
Speaker 1: about uncle, uncle, maybe grandpa Jesus. I have one grandson.
Speaker 1: He's he's four. Yeah, he's a little exactly sorry sorry
Speaker 1: with that charitable gambler a lot of injury uncertainly last
Speaker 1: week factored into some guessing lines thoughts. Gil's eight and
Speaker 1: seven on the season, Chrissie seven and two in his
Speaker 1: last nine back on it. Uh here on numbers game
Speaker 1: tenn he's turned seven pacific. Thank you, charitable gambler. He's
Speaker 1: always there for the tweet before every guessing lines. Uh
Speaker 1: coach Bryant any tennis place today? Okay, well that kid. No,
Speaker 1: we're gonna wait till. We're gonna wait till next year.
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe they'll do some finals men's and women's when
Speaker 1: we get to the uh till to the year long
Speaker 1: finals next week. Let's see. Jeff Kai Kendall, you are right.
Speaker 1: Losing in Survivor takes all the fun out of the season.
Speaker 1: What hurts worse is that there are only about six
Speaker 1: d left after nine weeks. In Enjoy your Day, and
Speaker 1: from Paul Carr our soccer guys on this show, he
Speaker 1: goes totally agree with the reasons to be sad about
Speaker 1: being asked in Survivor. He said, I had the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: I already missed the clean mental gymnastics of it all. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean that's what it is. It's the not being
Speaker 1: able to play vaccinated man. I understand Chris Hansen is
Speaker 1: already working on at documentary about the Josh Allen Josh
Speaker 1: Allen things. Quote they said it was impossible. Unquote. It's
Speaker 1: so true. It's like, just stop already with it. Is
Speaker 1: that he knew. It's like he knew. I had Buffalo
Speaker 1: and Survivor. Uh. Tommy Rowe Gil's hatred for my beloved
Speaker 1: Jags continues. It's okay, this team is going to continue
Speaker 1: to play hard and take down a couple more teams
Speaker 1: contending for the playoffs. I don't hate Youred Jaguars. I
Speaker 1: just lost it then and Survivor. Okay, what's next? Did
Speaker 1: Jaguars play hard? Wait? You really excited about that way yesterday?
Speaker 1: Second away from yesterday? Okay, this is actually a pretty
Speaker 1: reasonable game. Cleveland and New England Cleveland, Okay. So among
Speaker 1: the results yesterday, I mean, I'm sure there were people
Speaker 1: who thought Cleveland would cover I'm sure that people who
Speaker 1: thought Cleveland will win. Did you think Cleveland would crush Cincinnati? Uh?
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield fourteen of twenty one for two eighteen, two touchdowns,
Speaker 1: no picks. He was sacked twice. Nick Chubb fourteen for
Speaker 1: one thirty seven two touchdowns. But all you have to
Speaker 1: know is the turnover difference. Cleveland was plus three in
Speaker 1: turnovers once again, a hundred and fifty three rushing yards.
Speaker 1: It's their seventh game this season. The Browns with a
Speaker 1: hundred fifty plus rushing yards. That's the most in the NFL.
Speaker 1: They did have ten penalties for eighty four yards. They
Speaker 1: gotta clean that up, Denzel Wards. So this was also
Speaker 1: a theme yesterday, the pick six theme. Every team that
Speaker 1: had a pick six won their football game. Denzel Ward
Speaker 1: did it for the Browns ninety nine yard and interception
Speaker 1: return for a touchdown. I don't know if it's set
Speaker 1: the tone six minutes and two seconds into the game,
Speaker 1: but it did make it seven and nothing. Bengals did
Speaker 1: tie it at seven, set at seven seven, but by
Speaker 1: halftime it was twenty four to ten. Miles Garrett one
Speaker 1: and a half sacks. He's got an NFL high twelve
Speaker 1: as well. And then New England. The New England Patriots
Speaker 1: are a half a game behind the Bills for the
Speaker 1: lead in the a f C East. I had more
Speaker 1: than one person yesterday text me, Hey, what are the
Speaker 1: odds on the Patriots to win the NFC. By the way,
Speaker 1: here's this ridiculous Monday night football stat that I feel
Speaker 1: compelled to repeat, even though I know it's ridiculous. Teams
Speaker 1: that have won on Monday Night football are eight and
Speaker 1: o their next game this year. I don't know what
Speaker 1: that had to do with New England. I don't know
Speaker 1: how that got into this note that has to do
Speaker 1: with Kansas City. But okay, uh four and oh straight up?
Speaker 1: The Patriots are four and oh straight up on the
Speaker 1: road this season. Mac Jones yesterday in victory, there was
Speaker 1: so much of this again. Trevor Lawrence had a hundred
Speaker 1: eighteen yards passing in victory. Mac Jones was twelve of
Speaker 1: eighteen for one thirty nine, one touchdown, one picksack twice,
Speaker 1: Romandre Stevenson ten carries for sixty two, two catches for
Speaker 1: forty four and keeping with the pick six name J. C. Jackson,
Speaker 1: one of his two picks was a pick six of
Speaker 1: Sam Donald, who went eighty eight yards of the house
Speaker 1: seven twelve left in the third quarter made it twenty
Speaker 1: one to six New England and from that point forward
Speaker 1: it was Katie Barr the door. We'll get to Sam
Speaker 1: Donald later, I said Patriots by three here hosting Cleveland
Speaker 1: to five and four. Teams didn't know what else to
Speaker 1: make it. It's two and a half. That's exactly what
Speaker 1: my power rating has come to. We haven't mentioned qb
Speaker 1: R yet. You mentioned the Patriots and Jones. Uh, it's
Speaker 1: QBR seven point two. Really not not that great. Different
Speaker 1: team did look good, I mean no doubt. And I've
Speaker 1: mentioned before I have like a grading system. Uh if
Speaker 1: you if you're grade over a hundred, you did pretty good.
Speaker 1: Both these teams graded over a hundred yesterday, so they
Speaker 1: did well. Baker Mayfield QBR yesterday eighty two point seven
Speaker 1: and you know, which is very good. By the way.
Speaker 1: A little thing with Cleveland fans. They've been looking for
Speaker 1: a quarterback since Brian's site. That's like they finally have
Speaker 1: a good one. Is he great? No? Is he worth
Speaker 1: the number one draft choice? No, he's good, but he's good.
Speaker 1: They want to get rid of him, like for what
Speaker 1: for case Keenum. Is there anybody in the pipeline this
Speaker 1: year that I don't see anybody coming out of college
Speaker 1: that you have to have. This is your quarterback. He's
Speaker 1: pretty good. You know you can win with the skuy
Speaker 1: you know quick complaining all the time. Do you not
Speaker 1: remember all these other quarterbacks that you had for the
Speaker 1: last forty years. I said this all last year when
Speaker 1: when Beckham didn't play. He now that now that he's
Speaker 1: gone for good and we'll find out today where he's going.
Speaker 1: He looks Baker Mayfield again, the word I used all
Speaker 1: last year when he didn't have Beckham on the field,
Speaker 1: unburdened like he Baker Mayfield can act as cool as
Speaker 1: he wants, but when Beckham's out there, he just it
Speaker 1: appears that he feels the need to get the ball
Speaker 1: to Beckham just to keep him happy. Now without him
Speaker 1: on the field, and it always seems this way, he
Speaker 1: just feels like, you know what, you can play organically
Speaker 1: good football, doesn't have to worry about him. It's like
Speaker 1: you're walking, you know. With Beckham in the lineup and
Speaker 1: on the field, he was like walking on eggshells. You know,
Speaker 1: we've been in relationships like that with you're laughing, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm trying not to laugh, but we've been in that.
Speaker 1: But anyway, getting back to the number, it's two and
Speaker 1: a half everywhere. I think two and a half is fine.
Speaker 1: I think three would be a take for me. Think
Speaker 1: two and a half puts it right in the middle.
Speaker 1: And by the way, if you look over the course
Speaker 1: of time, if you take the two and a half
Speaker 1: more than you lay it, you're better off taking, particularly
Speaker 1: like the Browns, despite how tempting, the minus two and
Speaker 1: a half, despite how tempting. That's why it's two and
Speaker 1: a half and not three, Jeffrey. The next one to
Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons at the Dallas Cowboys. So Atlanta beats
Speaker 1: New Orleans and that was Coup's third game winning field
Speaker 1: goal this season. With zero zero left on the clock
Speaker 1: for Atlanta, Yeah, they were up twenty four to six
Speaker 1: over the Saints. Atlanta was in the fourth quarter. Then
Speaker 1: they gave up three consecutive touchdown drives to New Orleans.
Speaker 1: New Orleans final three drives, and then it was the
Speaker 1: big play Ryan to Uh to Cordarol Patterson that changed
Speaker 1: the game, that allowed for that field goal to be
Speaker 1: set up. Atlanta deserved to win that football game. UH
Speaker 1: Saint Survivors go down. Ryan twenty three for thirty for
Speaker 1: three forty three from Mattie Ice two touchdowns note picks
Speaker 1: he was stacked twice. Call Darrel Patterson six catches for
Speaker 1: one including that sixty four yard or accounted for more
Speaker 1: than half of that yardage with one oh one left
Speaker 1: down the right sideline when they were down twenty five
Speaker 1: to twenty four, which set up the game winner. Only
Speaker 1: thirty four rushing yards of the Falcons and victory. They
Speaker 1: had a fourth and inches at their own forty six,
Speaker 1: up three to nothing halfway through the second quarter. They
Speaker 1: got stopped. No consequence to that. We'll go through all
Speaker 1: the ridiculous fourth down. It's not ridiculous, but really we
Speaker 1: talked about it with Baltimore, how it really paid the
Speaker 1: way to their victory. UM, so Atlanta gets the win.
Speaker 1: Dallas is six game winning streaks snap to Denver in
Speaker 1: probably as as crazy as the Buffalo result was Dallas
Speaker 1: getting first of all, not covering, getting beat all of that,
Speaker 1: maybe you thought, but to to be losing this game
Speaker 1: thirty to nothing at one point to Denver had to
Speaker 1: be the most shocking thing of the whole weekend. Dominated
Speaker 1: six game winning streak snap season lows and points sixteen
Speaker 1: and yards to ninety. Dak was thirty two, two touchdowns,
Speaker 1: one pick, sack twice. UM, we'll get to the guessing
Speaker 1: of the lines here after the break, but fourteen first
Speaker 1: downs they were out time of possession if you will,
Speaker 1: by Denver forty eighteen forty eight. Dallas was minus two
Speaker 1: in turnovers. They gave up four hundred seventy yards actually
Speaker 1: be four hundred and seven yards. Zero points on their
Speaker 1: first eight possessions. Zero points Dallas on their first eight possessions.
Speaker 1: And here's what it comes down to. Fourth and one
Speaker 1: at the Denver thirty eight opening drive, they got stuffed,
Speaker 1: fourth and two at the Denver twenty second drive, incomplete,
Speaker 1: fourth and one at the Dallas forty five now down
Speaker 1: seven and nothing, third drive, they punted. Then Denver had
Speaker 1: a fourth and fourteen at their own seventeen twelve fifty
Speaker 1: one left in the third quarter. Dallas down sixteen and nothing.
Speaker 1: They blocked a Sam Martin punt and it was recovered
Speaker 1: by Jonas Griffith, but somebody touched the ball from the
Speaker 1: Dallas fourth and one at their own forty down nineteen
Speaker 1: and nothing, six fifty four left in the third quarter,
Speaker 1: dacked overthrows lamb fourth and seven at their own twenty
Speaker 1: eight down twenty seven and nothing. They go for it.
Speaker 1: They get a pick and then McCarthy leaves Dock in
Speaker 1: the game for some reason. They finally score, and then
Speaker 1: he doesn't go on sidekick. Then they on him on
Speaker 1: a meaningless two point conversion later because why not get
Speaker 1: him hurt. We'll give me my guests and we get
Speaker 1: the actual line coming up. Numbers game decent sports betting number.
Speaker 1: We get tweets again at beating the book. Always appreciate
Speaker 1: the feedback. Goldie Dawn, can you help me with my
Speaker 1: bingo card this week? Can you get Christos to say
Speaker 1: I want to see these young quarterbacks do well because
Speaker 1: I want the league to do well. Stay healthy. My
Speaker 1: buddy from Australia a great guy. Uh, let's see baby,
Speaker 1: Hey mate, baby face assassin Gil. Why Shannahan not getting
Speaker 1: heat in San Francisco? Hey, he should be? He absolutely
Speaker 1: should be. Uh. Let's see Jerry and Drassi tell Christy
Speaker 1: Bernie Kozar not Brian said, yeah, I forgot about Bernie
Speaker 1: just because he was throwing a javelin all those years
Speaker 1: instead of a football. Kind of forgotten shot. Put Joe Peter.
Speaker 1: Let's update the old Doyle Bruntson quote about the World
Speaker 1: Series of Poker of Poker rather quote the saddest day
Speaker 1: of the year is the day you get knocked out
Speaker 1: of the main events, which that to survivor. I agree, Joe.
Speaker 1: Joe was kind enough to be on set with us
Speaker 1: last week talking about profit UH seven two A j
Speaker 1: is like, are you aware that we had Josh Allen
Speaker 1: versus Josh Allen today? Yes, I'm a where Scott Anson.
Speaker 1: Oh my goodness. Okay, back to the uh the last
Speaker 1: one we just talked about. So I was going through
Speaker 1: all those fourth downs for Dallas, and the point of
Speaker 1: going through that is it's it's we first talked about
Speaker 1: it through the prison of Brandon's Daley. But when you
Speaker 1: start to trail a football game in the year one
Speaker 1: in the NFL, you start to do this, you know,
Speaker 1: like fourth down Roulette thing on overdrive, right, and so
Speaker 1: a deficit can become much bigger, much more quickly. And
Speaker 1: for those of us who bet on these things, these
Speaker 1: games now get out of control in a way that
Speaker 1: they otherwise wouldn't. So it's it's it's an interesting thing.
Speaker 1: I will say for this game Atlanta at Dallas, that
Speaker 1: Dallas will still be a ten point favorite. Yeah, it's
Speaker 1: pretty much nine. I see a little nine and a half.
Speaker 1: You know, I'm gonna open ten. And you know, I
Speaker 1: know Atlanta has suddenly come alive there four and four,
Speaker 1: which I can't believe four four and four. But here's
Speaker 1: who they've beaten. Uh They beat the Saints with Trevor Simeon,
Speaker 1: the Dolphins, and the Jets. There are other win this year.
Speaker 1: Win number four was against the Giants some far less
Speaker 1: than impressed. Dallas looked absolutely horrible. Actually had no excuses,
Speaker 1: although maybe Dak wasn't a UH. And we'll get to
Speaker 1: Denver to Vic Fangio complaining because Dallas was going on
Speaker 1: fourth downs. I mean, coach your own team for anyway,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna use ten. My numbers actually come higher than that,
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna be at the top of the market
Speaker 1: at ten. I have no faith in UH in Atlanta,
Speaker 1: and I think Dallas does rebound with a victory over
Speaker 1: a team that's not very good, even though they're for
Speaker 1: and for And what about the stupidity of of of
Speaker 1: Dallas and Mike McCarthy leaving in Dak again for whatever reason,
Speaker 1: you're down thirty to nothing, they score and eat us,
Speaker 1: and then he doesn't go for You know, they don't
Speaker 1: go for the first of all, they score, and then
Speaker 1: he doesn't go on side, that's the first thing. And
Speaker 1: then you leave dak in for another meaningless two point conversion,
Speaker 1: because what could go wrong there in terms of injury.
Speaker 1: Just the lack of you know, just being present sometimes
Speaker 1: kills me on this, Jeff, what's next? More for you? Gil?
Speaker 1: The Buffalo Bills at the New York Jets. Did you
Speaker 1: know Josh Allen sack Josh Allen? I should have curious.
Speaker 1: We're going to Josh Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 1: Thirty one forty seven for two sixty four, no touchdowns,
Speaker 1: two picks stacked four times five of fifty on the ground,
Speaker 1: lost a fumble. Stefan Diggs the only guy who showed
Speaker 1: up really in the box score six eighty five. They
Speaker 1: outgained Jackson Bill as I said, three wanted to eighteen,
Speaker 1: but they were minus two in turnovers going into the game.
Speaker 1: Buffalo led the NFL with a plus thirteen turnover margin.
Speaker 1: They had twelve penalties for eighteen yards. Let me just
Speaker 1: say this about the Bills before this game again, one
Speaker 1: of the reasons why I took them in Survivor, and
Speaker 1: the reason that I didn't care anymore that they were
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving is because the Bills are fraudulent, fraudulent. Look,
Speaker 1: you you just talked about Chrissy. You just talked about
Speaker 1: who Atlanta beat? Um? Have you the Buffalo Bills this year?
Speaker 1: Talk about not beating You know what's the opposite of
Speaker 1: a murderers row? They they have beaten this year. This
Speaker 1: is there. They're five and three. First of all, Now
Speaker 1: this is who they've beaten, Miami, Washington, Houston, a terrible
Speaker 1: Kansas City team in Miami. They've now lost to Pittsburgh,
Speaker 1: Tennessee and now Jacksonville. Everything they did yesterday, there was
Speaker 1: no point in that game where they felt like they
Speaker 1: were going to win that game against Jacksonville. And as
Speaker 1: those stats indicate, they couldn't get anything on the ground.
Speaker 1: Then when they tried to throw a pass, Jacksonville was
Speaker 1: in the backfield. And then when they could give Josh
Speaker 1: Allen time, they were committing a penalty. They were terrible.
Speaker 1: They looked so soft in that game. They're at the Jets.
Speaker 1: You said Jets, uh? Mike White On Thursday seven eleven
Speaker 1: seven four eleven for nine five one touchdown. Note, Picks
Speaker 1: wasn't stack remember he had to leave the game because
Speaker 1: that four arm pinky injury thing. Josh Johnson ended up
Speaker 1: twenty seven forty one for three seventeen, three touchdowns, one pick,
Speaker 1: stack twice, Elijah More seven carries for eighty four yards
Speaker 1: and two touchdowns. I'll say Buffalo, I mean, people aren't
Speaker 1: gonna like take that yesterday as anything, you know, diseased
Speaker 1: on the team. I will, but I still think the
Speaker 1: spread is gonna be double digits. So I'll say minus
Speaker 1: ten and a half. You're light, it's a thirteen. We're
Speaker 1: doing that again. Yeah, my power ratings come to fourteen.
Speaker 1: You know, I'm not gonna go there, but you know,
Speaker 1: let's let's not let's not underestimate how terrible the Jets
Speaker 1: were defensively. That was one of the worst performances that
Speaker 1: I've ever seen. I mean, the Colts pretty much did
Speaker 1: whatever they wanted to uh qb r wise and you know,
Speaker 1: again backtracking a little bit here, Carson Wentz was eight
Speaker 1: against that Jet defense, who gave up two d fifty
Speaker 1: seven yards rushing as well. So they were horrible. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna use thirteen, like I said, you know, put dicker
Speaker 1: on your bingo card. I'm not gonna dicker with that one. Uh,
Speaker 1: but you know, I just I think they probably still
Speaker 1: need to be thirteen because you mentioned that murders row
Speaker 1: that they beat the Jets will fit perfectly into that
Speaker 1: Murders call. And that's why I took Buffalo yesterday. I'm like, well,
Speaker 1: I can get away with it again, bullying up on
Speaker 1: the Jaguars and the and the Jaguars scored nine points
Speaker 1: if you told me before they get Hey, the Jaguars
Speaker 1: only scored none. Oh we got through. Where can I
Speaker 1: lay the sixteen? Even though I had figured out Buffalo
Speaker 1: was a fraud, I was like, not today, they won't
Speaker 1: be though, what what? You can't explain that beforeance? They're
Speaker 1: so bad anyway, By the way, kind of backtrack one second,
Speaker 1: back to Atlanta. Matt Ryan had the best QB or
Speaker 1: of the day, point eight. Maddie Ice, He's he's playing well,
Speaker 1: but the team is still bad. They're bad before the
Speaker 1: season and they are Pro football sports betting guy to
Speaker 1: Visa and asked to pick all the playoff teams. I
Speaker 1: had Atlanta as one of the NFC wild cards, and
Speaker 1: I can't four hit to leave them alive for that
Speaker 1: it's next year. Saints It Titans, Saints it Titans. Saints
Speaker 1: lose to Atlanta. Trevior Simeon forty nine, two touchdowns, no
Speaker 1: picksack once, Alvin Camara thirteen carries for fifty and a touchdown,
Speaker 1: four catches for fifty four always filling up a statuet,
Speaker 1: ten penalties for seventy four yards. Though for New Orleans,
Speaker 1: they had a fourth and three at the Atlanta thirty
Speaker 1: six under nine minutes left in the second quarter, down
Speaker 1: three to nothing. Adam Troutman dropped the past, no real consequence.
Speaker 1: So Atlanta and New Orleans where we're messing up on
Speaker 1: fourth downs, but there was no real direct consequence. Tennessee
Speaker 1: yesterday last night beats the Rams and beat some good
Speaker 1: twenty eight to sixteen. First of all, the biggest thing
Speaker 1: of this game, we had a referee with a beard.
Speaker 1: Did you notice that? Did not? I think that's the
Speaker 1: first in NFL history. Look up that Scott Hanson Tannehill
Speaker 1: was nineteen of twenty seven for one hundred forty three yards.
Speaker 1: Our third game now where the winning quarter of I
Speaker 1: didn't even get to a buck fifty one touchdown, one pick, sack,
Speaker 1: three times twelve thirty six left in the second quarter.
Speaker 1: The Rams are three to nothing. This is the only
Speaker 1: sequence of the game you needn't know. Last night, third
Speaker 1: and fourth their own ten Stafford with a Carson Wentz
Speaker 1: like whirling dervish interception. Next play, two yard touchdown passes
Speaker 1: to us swim from Tannehill seven to three. Titans ensuing drive.
Speaker 1: First play from scrimmage, first and ten on twenty one,
Speaker 1: twelve sixteen left in the second quarter, Keith Byard twenty
Speaker 1: four yards, pick six, fourteen to three. Essentially game over
Speaker 1: at that point because the next Tennessee drive after a
Speaker 1: four and out for the Rams, if you will, it
Speaker 1: was twenty one to three the Titans one, with sixteen
Speaker 1: first downs and a hundred ninety four total yards. They
Speaker 1: were out game three, one ninety four. Jeffrey Simmons three sacks,
Speaker 1: one quarterback hit for quarterback hurries for Tennessee. Tennessee will
Speaker 1: be favored by four and a half. I believe in
Speaker 1: this game. That's my guest. I like your number way better,
Speaker 1: do you at it's three? Universally, I'm opening three and
Speaker 1: a half. I mean, there's times when you know I
Speaker 1: disagree with the number. This one I completely don't understand. Now.
Speaker 1: I lowered Tennessee two and a half points with the
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry injury because he's that's a lot for I
Speaker 1: can't ever remember doing that for a running back in
Speaker 1: my life. But they looked really good. By the way,
Speaker 1: when you look at those yardage statistics, you know, versus
Speaker 1: rams when you score twice on you know what, a
Speaker 1: two yard drive and then another pick six that takes
Speaker 1: away two possessions where they had had what twenty yards,
Speaker 1: eight yards whatever, So that can be a little deceiving
Speaker 1: when you look at that. When you look at this
Speaker 1: yardage on something like that, I think Tennessee is still
Speaker 1: really good. And Tannehill, even though he didn't have great
Speaker 1: numbers his qb R where am I at sixty two
Speaker 1: point six? Which is pretty good? This defense is coming around.
Speaker 1: I think it's a team that believes himself. Now back
Speaker 1: to New Orleans. You know Trevor Simeon, Well, let's just
Speaker 1: say he is who we thought, yes, you know, and
Speaker 1: uh eighteen point five, and let's not forget he had
Speaker 1: a great game the week before. He's been around. He's
Speaker 1: not a very good quarterback and he's just not that good.
Speaker 1: The Saints aren't that good. Uh, they've been very up
Speaker 1: and down. But my numbers came to six, and I
Speaker 1: thought that was well, I'd probably lay the six. And
Speaker 1: that's the conundrumth Tennessee, Like, what of that? Yesterday? Was like, Oh,
Speaker 1: it was just the two you know errors by the
Speaker 1: rams that made that game what it was. Yes, but
Speaker 1: what is it about this football team that makes them
Speaker 1: so successful weekend, week out, year in year out? Coming back?
Speaker 1: We got tweets at Beating the Book? Uh, Matt Warrior
Speaker 1: zero one three, This is my favorite segment of the week.
Speaker 1: You three are awesome. Side questions. Does the gold Sheet
Speaker 1: still exists out there? Thanks? I think it does. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think it exists. The Better Life Tim Lawson. Uh.
Speaker 1: Seven years ago this week, we heard the original telling
Speaker 1: of Adventures in Bad Book Making from Chrissy on the
Speaker 1: Beating the Book podcast. He tweeted it out for everybody.
Speaker 1: He's doing a great job tweeting those out. Yeah. Was
Speaker 1: that the one with the uh, the where I blew
Speaker 1: the pick six? Oh? That was the one I think
Speaker 1: he sent her said that last week. He said that
Speaker 1: two days ago, three days ago. Yeah, we'll get to
Speaker 1: the Breeders Cup momentary because I want you to explain
Speaker 1: this to everybody. This is from carm RANDASO. Not a
Speaker 1: good game for the Buffalo Bills, he said, hope someone
Speaker 1: took the under. That's true, Matthew Mayberry. I was so
Speaker 1: sick of Scott Hanson and the Josh Allen stuff that
Speaker 1: when Chris Collinsworth brought it up on Sunday Night Football,
Speaker 1: I screamed at him, even though he only said it once.
Speaker 1: Luckily I had the Colts and Survivor this week, though.
Speaker 1: Congratulations to you. I'm glad you got through um route
Speaker 1: to do to do, and on and on with the tweet. Oh,
Speaker 1: Mickey Bako last one if you had to pick one
Speaker 1: on repeat for an hour. A Josh Allen to Josh
Speaker 1: Allen or b Todd wishneb singing the Miami Dolphins song. Jeff,
Speaker 1: what do you think? Gil says l O, L. I
Speaker 1: don't know what I'd prefer to be quite honestly, this morning,
Speaker 1: definitely not the Josh Allen thing. Um, okay, so last
Speaker 1: thing about the Titans game. We just went through that
Speaker 1: last comment that I made, so you're right right. It
Speaker 1: was the whirling Dervish play which resulted in a two
Speaker 1: yard touchdown pass from Tannehill to Swim After that and
Speaker 1: then the pick six to Buyard and that kind of changed,
Speaker 1: you know, that that changed that game forever. They added
Speaker 1: another touchdown before he knew it was three, and that
Speaker 1: game was just sort of holding served the rest of
Speaker 1: the way. What do you make of the Titans, even
Speaker 1: even without Derrick Henry that we can say that about
Speaker 1: that game and we'd be right to say, oh, it
Speaker 1: was a weird game the way it played out. But
Speaker 1: they're just the Derrick Henry thing is is a unicorn
Speaker 1: thing with him, and now even without them, you wonder
Speaker 1: if there's just something about this football team is so
Speaker 1: different from everybody else. I got those calls about New England,
Speaker 1: texts about New England, people wanting to bet New England.
Speaker 1: I actually want to bet the Titans. Well there, you know,
Speaker 1: they've come close, you know, in the last couple of years.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's you know, I think very well, sometimes
Speaker 1: it looks like a caveman kind of on the side,
Speaker 1: but he's coached a team. Well, they've gotten a lot
Speaker 1: out of that. He revived Tannehill's career, who was like
Speaker 1: a waste pretty much in Miami. Um, I think this
Speaker 1: team can win. I really do. I think they're very,
Speaker 1: very good and can win football games. The hardest part
Speaker 1: of their schedules now behind them. Before we have ruled
Speaker 1: out the right, just say next, two teams coming off
Speaker 1: of bye week, Tampa at Washington. All right, I got
Speaker 1: another to stay here. Two teams off of bye Tampa.
Speaker 1: Bay is gonna be a ten point favorite at d C.
Speaker 1: Or I should say it ral John. I don't know
Speaker 1: what it is. I don't know if they call it
Speaker 1: rale John anymore. I like your number better. It's mostly
Speaker 1: nine and a half. My numbers came to eleven. I
Speaker 1: think I'm an open ten and take a pop. If
Speaker 1: anybody wants to come on in on Washington, come on in.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna open ten on this game. It's nine and
Speaker 1: a half everywhere, but I think ten is a much
Speaker 1: better number here. The only the only spread I've been
Speaker 1: pretty way off on. I think it's the Tennessee one.
Speaker 1: I love Tennessee and come way off on that one
Speaker 1: to my friends, So don't feel too bad. What's next, Well,
Speaker 1: the Ravens. I'm way off on that one too. Oh right, Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: but but do you put you ended up posting the number.
Speaker 1: I guess seven and a half. I'm an open next one, Jeff,
Speaker 1: another one Detroit winless off of by Pittsburgh. Site unseen
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh who hosts the Bears tonight, another team I didn't
Speaker 1: trust in Survivor. I'll secretly for for my own prevention
Speaker 1: of self loathing, I'll be rooting for the Bears tonight,
Speaker 1: so then I can absolutely say, well, I was gonna
Speaker 1: lose anyway I went because I was never gonna pick
Speaker 1: Baltimore and I was never gonna pick Miami. Once the
Speaker 1: toroad tailor news came down Pittsburgh, I threw it between
Speaker 1: seven and ten. I'll say Pittsburgh minus eight and a half.
Speaker 1: Kind of a no man's land. Yeah, it's pretty much nine.
Speaker 1: I see an eight and a half. I see a
Speaker 1: nine and a half. Um, okay, diminishing returns. We can
Speaker 1: scratch out off your bingo card. My power ratings come
Speaker 1: to thirteen. Actually a lot of money showed on Pittsburgh's
Speaker 1: and had a lot of money, but I wouldn't trust
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh with more than double digits. People learned nothing from yesterday.
Speaker 1: That's Bett Pittsburgh, and the answer is no, by the way,
Speaker 1: they have not learned. So I'm gonna open nine. I
Speaker 1: you know, like I said, my power ratings come higher,
Speaker 1: but the diminishing returns. This is a textbook case right here.
Speaker 1: I could see Pittsburgh winning seventeen ten very easily. Here.
Speaker 1: That was an easy line to guess too, because you
Speaker 1: had the barometer of tonight's game to sort of establish
Speaker 1: that it's seven and then just a little higher than
Speaker 1: little higher than Chicago would be Detroit. Um. That was
Speaker 1: also the thing about picking Buffalo, as you knew you
Speaker 1: could play Pittsburgh or Baltimore this coming week. All right,
Speaker 1: what's next, Jeff? All right to the afternoon, we go
Speaker 1: on the west coast. So four or five eastern Vikings
Speaker 1: and Chargers. Okay, pardon me, Vikings and charges. Where do
Speaker 1: we start with the Minnesota Vikings. Uh, Minnesota is three
Speaker 1: and five. As we mentioned, they lose to the Ravens
Speaker 1: yesterday thirty to thirty one. In overtime. They were up
Speaker 1: twenty four to ten. They just this team, let's just
Speaker 1: go through it. Three and five. They lost on a
Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook fumble in overtime. In Cincinnati. They missed a
Speaker 1: thirty seven yard field goal to lose to Arizona. They
Speaker 1: lost to Cleveland by seven, had the ball to Cleveland
Speaker 1: twenty six when the clock went to zero, they lost
Speaker 1: a Cooper rush of the Cowboys, and yesterday they cough
Speaker 1: up the fourteen points second half lead. Those are Those
Speaker 1: are five losses this season by a total of eighteen points.
Speaker 1: Five losses, all five of them by a total of
Speaker 1: eighteen points. By the way. A couple other three wins.
Speaker 1: They beat Detroit by a miracle, if you're called that,
Speaker 1: and they beat Caroline and overtime after trying desperately to
Speaker 1: lose that football game. Kirk Cousins had to win it
Speaker 1: over time. So you look, if you're a fan of
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings, you have got to be done with
Speaker 1: this outfit. Just like you. You almost knew they would
Speaker 1: figure out a way to lose that game yesterday. And
Speaker 1: it's not Kirk Cousins fault seventeen twenty eight for one
Speaker 1: eight seven yesterday, two touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked never.
Speaker 1: It wasn't sacked this year. Sixteen touchdowns in two picks
Speaker 1: this year. Dalvin Cook seventeen for one, ten Jefferson through
Speaker 1: one pass for eleven yards, also had three catches for
Speaker 1: sixty nine in a touchdown. They did have eight penalties
Speaker 1: for one hundred seven yards, but again thirty six to
Speaker 1: thirteen disadvantage in first downs. And if you go back
Speaker 1: to that game against Cooper Russian Dallas on Sunday night,
Speaker 1: the offense just goes away for really long periods of time.
Speaker 1: They gave up five hundred total yards. They were out
Speaker 1: gained five hundred three eighteen, but they were plus two
Speaker 1: in turnovers. When you're plus two in turnovers, you should
Speaker 1: win football games. They were out time of possession forty
Speaker 1: six oh four to forty. As we mentioned, they had
Speaker 1: a fourth and two at their own thirty three to seventeen.
Speaker 1: Give him credit for that. Seven twenty five left in
Speaker 1: the third quarter, they had a fake punt, they snapped
Speaker 1: it to the up back and they did convert it.
Speaker 1: That's Minnesota in defeat. Then there's the Chargers. This was
Speaker 1: the fishiest line of the week to me, the Chargers
Speaker 1: in the Eagles line. Chargers end up winning it by
Speaker 1: a field goal twenty seven to twenty four. Justin Herbert
Speaker 1: thirty two of thirty eight thirty two of thirty eight
Speaker 1: three fifty six, two touchdowns, no picks, He wasn't sacked.
Speaker 1: Five carries, fourteen yards in a touchdown. Keenan Q. He
Speaker 1: is tremendous. Keenan Allen twelve catches for one oh four.
Speaker 1: Now Here, here's the Brandon's Daley lead Chargers. Because we
Speaker 1: always try to isolate the fourth downs. So fourth and
Speaker 1: goal at the two yard line in a scoreless game,
Speaker 1: fourth and two, fourth and goal of the two in
Speaker 1: a scoreless game, five forty six left in the first quarter,
Speaker 1: one yard game. That was the rare ninety eight yards
Speaker 1: scoreless drive from the one to the one. Alright. Then
Speaker 1: it's fourth and two at the Philadelphia twenty seven with
Speaker 1: seven thirty left in the second quarter in a seven
Speaker 1: seven game. They only get one yard on that they
Speaker 1: failed to convert. Then, and this is the key sequence
Speaker 1: at the end of the game, so we have a
Speaker 1: tie game. It's twenty four fourth and one at the
Speaker 1: Philly thirty nine with two forty eight left. Of course
Speaker 1: they go for that because there are no man's in
Speaker 1: and they converted. And then maybe the biggest single fourth
Speaker 1: down decision of the entire day in the NFL fourth
Speaker 1: and one at the Philly twenty eight under two minutes now,
Speaker 1: they try to draw the Eagles defense off sides. They
Speaker 1: don't do that, so they call time out. They come
Speaker 1: back from the time out, they appropriately sneak and convert.
Speaker 1: Best coaching decision of the day, I would say, from
Speaker 1: Brandon's Dalley on that fourth and one under two minutes left,
Speaker 1: not settling for a forty five yard field goal from
Speaker 1: a kicker in Dustin Hopkins, who I can attest to
Speaker 1: as a Washington football team fan, is such a hit
Speaker 1: or miss guy. It's not even funny. By the way,
Speaker 1: he missed an extra point earlier in the game as well.
Speaker 1: And you have a six ft five inch quarterback, you
Speaker 1: sneake them, and they did. They converted it, and they
Speaker 1: won on the much shorter Hopkins field goal. But I
Speaker 1: will say this about the Chargers defense. They allowed a
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy five plus rushing yards. Are you ready
Speaker 1: for this for the fifth time this season? So that's
Speaker 1: so anyway, bottom line, Minnesota Chargers. I said, Chargers minus three.
Speaker 1: I'll get some more comments later. Uh, it's two and
Speaker 1: a half pretty much everywhere I'm I've made it four myself.
Speaker 1: You know, I think, yeah, I think Chargers certainly have
Speaker 1: their flaws, but Minnesota has a whole bunch of flaws.
Speaker 1: So I'm opening three. It's two and a half everywhere.
Speaker 1: Once again, go ahead and trample somebody else at the
Speaker 1: windows trying to get that plus three, because you know
Speaker 1: they can't resist the three or two and a half.
Speaker 1: When it's three everywhere, you know they can't resist. So
Speaker 1: I'm opening three. And by the way, you mentioned the
Speaker 1: Chargers defense, I'll just jump ahead Jalen Hurts because really,
Speaker 1: to mean nothing but a mediocre quarterback. Eight point eight
Speaker 1: was his QBR against that Charger defense. And by the way,
Speaker 1: you know there was some QBR is just one more tool.
Speaker 1: But you know that I think I don't completely understand that.
Speaker 1: I don't want to time like I do. But somebody else,
Speaker 1: somebody a couple of weeks ago when I said Kirk
Speaker 1: Cousins was in the bottom third quarterbacks, Uh called me
Speaker 1: out on it. And by that guy, whoever you are,
Speaker 1: forget you are, by the way, sorry about that. You're right,
Speaker 1: he's not in the bottom third. He's definitely probably in
Speaker 1: the upper half, especially this year. He's he's he's a
Speaker 1: top fifteen. He's a good quarterback. Yeah he's you know,
Speaker 1: I'll give you that. And he's a good quarterback. The
Speaker 1: thing with the charges is he I want to fall
Speaker 1: in love with them so bad. And Brandon Staley's fourth
Speaker 1: down and thinks are great. I think I love Herbert,
Speaker 1: I love Justin herb but that defense is so unspecial.
Speaker 1: To put it mildly, you still think they gotta be
Speaker 1: a solid three against this team. Yeah, I think so too.
Speaker 1: By the way, here's just a random thought too. Do
Speaker 1: you get and I heard somebody say something like this
Speaker 1: last night, but I was thinking it during the day.
Speaker 1: You is there some weird so the NFL? We we
Speaker 1: all acknowledge, you know, this year maybe more than every
Speaker 1: other year. And I don't want prisoner at the moment,
Speaker 1: but I think I'm right in saying this. It's wackier
Speaker 1: than any year before, I think, especially with all the
Speaker 1: fourth downs, the wider variants and scores uh inexplicable performances. Yesterday,
Speaker 1: just the whole slate was filled with them. Do you
Speaker 1: think that the extra game going from sixteen to seventeen games?
Speaker 1: And I know it's only one extra football game to
Speaker 1: work with me? Here We're only halfway through the first
Speaker 1: year of right, do you think that that has played
Speaker 1: some kind of weird mental game on teams where they're
Speaker 1: like the notion of having let down games becomes magnified
Speaker 1: where it's just sort of like, uh, this season is endless,
Speaker 1: Like from sixteen to seventeen, just that one extra week
Speaker 1: has had this strange psychological effect on everybody, just like
Speaker 1: with the the extra point being moved back, like it's
Speaker 1: just the chip shot field goal right now, it's so
Speaker 1: difficult for everybody. I just that thought occurred to me yesterday. Well,
Speaker 1: that thought never occurred to me. I gotta tell you,
Speaker 1: I think there's a couple of things going on in
Speaker 1: the NFL. I think the extra point is part of it.
Speaker 1: I think, uh, you know, I think the fact that
Speaker 1: they go for it a lot more on fourth down
Speaker 1: con skew some scores without the plus or minus that way.
Speaker 1: I don't know about that seventeenth game, but I think
Speaker 1: there's you know, there's there's some things like that. But meanwhile, Survivor,
Speaker 1: I'm up until yesterday. I mean, everybody was advancing every week.
Speaker 1: You know, Yeah, I tell the Cincinnati game, but I
Speaker 1: talked to Jeff during the break. I don't. I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm not one of these believers in full moon and
Speaker 1: all that other stuff. But go to the college. Poo
Speaker 1: look good in college? Uh, you know, Georgia looked good.
Speaker 1: Obama didn't know how State didn't or again, I guess
Speaker 1: looked Okay, you know, you know Michigan State lost. I mean,
Speaker 1: Cincinnati looks terrible. A couple of weeks in a row
Speaker 1: now look terrible. So I mean, I don't know, is
Speaker 1: there is there a weirdness there too because of the
Speaker 1: you know, the voting to get in. I don't know.
Speaker 1: Guess the next numbers game, Vista these words, betting that
Speaker 1: one we get tweets at beating the book. Always appreciate
Speaker 1: the uh the feedback. A lot of folks on the
Speaker 1: Breeders cup Tofur Baron tofor you were the guy ran
Speaker 1: into on the on the walkway, I believe between uh
Speaker 1: Aria and Cosmore, between Crystals and Cosmo Tofur, I believe
Speaker 1: that was you and your and your lovely wife. Listening
Speaker 1: to Gilly, Chris talked about the Breeders. Friday had two
Speaker 1: tickets live uh in P. Six and P five, each
Speaker 1: one ticket each single to the one and one with
Speaker 1: one to four. Although it came out okay for me,
Speaker 1: you guys are spot on that it should be all
Speaker 1: when that took place. In my opinion, he shows me
Speaker 1: the tickets he made out. Yeah, good for you Tofor
Speaker 1: Roger Kane, the problem was that the vet did not
Speaker 1: examine the horse. He assumed he broke through the gate.
Speaker 1: I think Roger's right on and again, I think that
Speaker 1: goes back to the Barberow thing where we lost one
Speaker 1: of the great horses of the last you know, maybe
Speaker 1: forty years. That's how good Barbara was. Vegas Vice. Technically
Speaker 1: a vet can't scratch a horse. He recommend ends to
Speaker 1: the stewards who do the actual scratching. Okay, that I
Speaker 1: didn't know, Thank you, Vegas. Fighte and Paul's aying only
Speaker 1: saving grace being a Vikings fan is in playing their
Speaker 1: opponent at halftime. Uh and Chimpanzee. I don't know this
Speaker 1: is if this is correct or not. Manning cast curse
Speaker 1: continues active players who have appeared on the Manning Caster
Speaker 1: now o and six the subsequent week Josh Allen falling
Speaker 1: victim this week. Wow. The Madden curse goes to the
Speaker 1: Manning curse and this from Joe Peter via text. Joe Pete,
Speaker 1: who was here talking about profit exchange with this last
Speaker 1: week profit and uh obviously trading basses, wrote the Joe
Speaker 1: Peter Tour Guide on the Masters. He says, the greatest
Speaker 1: thing about betting on the Chargers is that the coach
Speaker 1: makes decisions exactly in line with your goals. Is a
Speaker 1: better I truly love coach daily, That's what I absolutely agree,
Speaker 1: he says. Of course, it really hit me yesterday during
Speaker 1: that Eagles game. He removes a lot of that difference
Speaker 1: in coach better goals. The blowout in Baltimore was an
Speaker 1: example of that, too. Lose by thirty instead of thirteen
Speaker 1: due to the fail fourth downs. He and us as
Speaker 1: better don't care. I said that that week. I was
Speaker 1: like Brandon Daley gets that it doesn't matter if you
Speaker 1: lose by a hundred points. It doesn't care. But for betters,
Speaker 1: you'll have to keep that in mind. If you have
Speaker 1: a teaser, that's exactly right. What's next year? Chris stole
Speaker 1: exactly what I was gonna say. Can't tease the Chargers
Speaker 1: because of that? Be careful. Carolina at Arizona is next. Oh,
Speaker 1: it's the Jeff Parlay Special. Whenever we get to Sam Donald.
Speaker 1: Sam Donald Carolina loses yesterday to New England, we talked
Speaker 1: about a little Donald was sixteen of thirty three for
Speaker 1: one seventy two. Ever been more quarterbacks with a few
Speaker 1: with less than two hundred yards passing three in this case,
Speaker 1: I think is very accurate. Three. I remember I had
Speaker 1: this Kiden in high school, graded out of a hundred,
Speaker 1: and I asked him. I was like, hey, Mark, would
Speaker 1: you get on your test because I got an eleven
Speaker 1: uh sixty eleven thirty three for one seventy two touchdowns
Speaker 1: picked three times, one sack career versus New England, Sam
Speaker 1: Donald owen four straight up one touchdown against the leven turnovers.
Speaker 1: So Bill Belichick destroys Sam Donald one touchdown against the
Speaker 1: leven turnovers. He hasn't had a touchdown pass in three
Speaker 1: games Sam Donald last three games Panthers had played not
Speaker 1: a single touchdown pass. McCaffrey was back in the lineup
Speaker 1: fourteen for fifty two on the ground, four for fifty
Speaker 1: four catching, but the Panthers total thirteen first downs two
Speaker 1: d forty total yards. There were three of eleven on
Speaker 1: third downs they had three turnovers, and they had ten
Speaker 1: penalties for eighty three yards. The only good news is
Speaker 1: Stephon Gilmore's had a pick in both of his games
Speaker 1: as the Panther where they play in Arizona, OH Arizona.
Speaker 1: Arizona goes into San Francisco without Kyler Murray, without DeAndre Hopkins,
Speaker 1: without a j Green, and they crushed the Niners. Colt
Speaker 1: McCoy twenty two of twenty six for two forty nine,
Speaker 1: one touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked twice. James Conner
Speaker 1: any one carries for ninety six yards to touchdowns, five catches,
Speaker 1: seventy seven yards in a touchdown, one hundred and sixty
Speaker 1: three rushing yards for the Cardinals against the Niners. Kristen
Speaker 1: Kirk one of one throwing for thirty three six catches
Speaker 1: for ninety one They were plus three in turnovers against
Speaker 1: the Niners. Overcame nine penalties for eighty four yards, had
Speaker 1: a thirty six forty seven thirteen time of possession advantage.
Speaker 1: It was fourteen and nothing by the end of the
Speaker 1: first quarter. George Kinnel fumbled, Brandon Aiyuke fumbled. Both of
Speaker 1: those lead to scoring tribes in the first half. For Arizona.
Speaker 1: I'll say Arizona by double digits. Here, I'll say Arizona.
Speaker 1: Mine is ten and a half. I like your number better,
Speaker 1: Mark Autoff. Um, it's mostly ten. Um, Yeah, I see
Speaker 1: mostly ten. I'm gonna open ten and a half. You know,
Speaker 1: I made this game fourteen and I'm the Kyler Murray.
Speaker 1: Murray's playing or not. The Panthers have really hit the skids.
Speaker 1: I mean early in the season they were three and
Speaker 1: oh I thought, you know that rule was like the
Speaker 1: next Vince Lombardi. Uh. They've hit the skids since then,
Speaker 1: one to three or five six. They've lost six out
Speaker 1: of seven and Donald looks terrible. The defense looks terrible. Um.
Speaker 1: Jeff Barlay called y you know they're They're one win
Speaker 1: was against the Falcons, who I think are terrible. You know,
Speaker 1: so I think this, and I'll tell you truth. I've
Speaker 1: been slow to come around on the Cardinals. They're really
Speaker 1: really good. Might they after yesterday? Might they be the
Speaker 1: best team in the NFL. Well, they're the top of
Speaker 1: my power ratings. You know, my grating says, I haven't
Speaker 1: gone through my power ratings as closely as I need to. Uh.
Speaker 1: There they have the highest grade, I can tell you that.
Speaker 1: And somebody pointed us out on Twitter. I thought, I
Speaker 1: can't think of who it was. I'd like to acknowledge him. Um,
Speaker 1: but James Conner. Maybe the Steeler offensive line was just
Speaker 1: horrible and that's why he had such a bad year,
Speaker 1: because he looks pretty good with the Cardinals. But that
Speaker 1: team has depth. And you know, I'm not a big
Speaker 1: fan of Kingsbury, but you know, sometimes you have great
Speaker 1: assistance and whatever. And I think this team, this team
Speaker 1: can win. This team can definitely win at all. Absolutely
Speaker 1: eight and one. The Arizona Cardinals without Kyler Murray, without
Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins, Yeah, without J. J. Watt of course, next Sir,
Speaker 1: James Connor is also the best scoring running back in
Speaker 1: the history of the league. And all of a sudden
Speaker 1: now from going from Pittsburgh the Arizona double digit touchdowns
Speaker 1: already for no worries there, Chris Uh Seattle, the Green
Speaker 1: Bay Seattle coming off of bye, We're getting Russell Wilson
Speaker 1: back next week, we might right, well, he's eligible, he's
Speaker 1: eligible to come back for Week ten. I'm not sure.
Speaker 1: Let's get a word on that, okay, green Bay. Green
Speaker 1: Bay loses to Kansas City thirteen to seven. Back door
Speaker 1: was open, Jordan's Love took it. That's the best thing
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say about Jordan Love. Now, Packers seven game
Speaker 1: winning streak is snapped. All three seasons under Matt Lafloor.
Speaker 1: They're seven and two after nine games the Packers all
Speaker 1: three seasons. Uh. The Packers early in this game had
Speaker 1: two missed field goals in a muffed punt leading to
Speaker 1: short fields for Casey. I mean that that's all the plink,
Speaker 1: oh you need. That's all the Chiefs needed to win
Speaker 1: this game. And again the Chiefs only won this thirteen
Speaker 1: to seven against Jordan's Love. The Packers had no points,
Speaker 1: zero points on their first eight drives. Love ended up
Speaker 1: nineteen of thirty four for one nine, one touchdown, one
Speaker 1: picky sack once. The Packers were two of twelve on
Speaker 1: third downs. They out gained Kansas City and defeat three
Speaker 1: oh one to two thirty seven. They were minus two
Speaker 1: in turnovers. Let me just say this about Jordan Love.
Speaker 1: This is going back. You know we we always we
Speaker 1: do the Malcolm Gladwell blink thing about past. So as
Speaker 1: a Washington football team fan growing up, remember the old
Speaker 1: holding the clipboard thing. And if you held the clipboard
Speaker 1: for years, when you came to play after all those years,
Speaker 1: oftentimes you were really good. So Mark Rippon, Stan Humphreys,
Speaker 1: Trent Green, all these guys in Washington who held the
Speaker 1: clipboard for years under their predecessor, one won of the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl m v P. Was the greatest player for
Speaker 1: one year you could ever imagined, and ripping Humphreys led
Speaker 1: the Chargers to an a f c chaan up in ship.
Speaker 1: Trent Green, who knows if he doesn't get hurt, maybe
Speaker 1: he leads the Rams to the Promised Land. Jordan's love
Speaker 1: learned anything all these years? Well it's two years, two years.
Speaker 1: He still did you learn anything? The thing does anything
Speaker 1: they threw out at him that he had never seen before,
Speaker 1: he had no answer for none. I'll say, I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's Russell Wilson. If it's not
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson and it is Aaron Rodgers, I would say
Speaker 1: Green Bay by six. Yeah, it's mostly like five. I'm
Speaker 1: I just want to see here. It sounds like he
Speaker 1: might be bad. It might be that would reduce it
Speaker 1: a little. I gotta tell you that's this is a
Speaker 1: weird weird number. I'm looking now, it's it's four and
Speaker 1: a half. It was five, It's not a four and
Speaker 1: a half. Does that mean Russell Wilson's plan. I don't
Speaker 1: know what to do with this, but let's let's assume
Speaker 1: Rodgers is back with the team Saturday. That means he'll
Speaker 1: miss all week's practice. Not a veteran, you know, I'm
Speaker 1: not sure that's gonna affect a whole lot as far
Speaker 1: as his play on Sunday. You know I would assume not. Um,
Speaker 1: it's a hard game to figure out about hard game
Speaker 1: to figure I got like three different numbers working for me,
Speaker 1: you know. Um. You know, I think I'm gonna be
Speaker 1: real careful with this game. But I think I'm gonna
Speaker 1: open five. Just that gives me leeway. Um, even though
Speaker 1: are my friend Ralf Gralf Michael's posted that five is
Speaker 1: a much more predominant number than it used to be.
Speaker 1: But uh, if I get laid the five and go
Speaker 1: right to six, if they take the five and go
Speaker 1: right the four, you know, I just I want to
Speaker 1: be careful with this game because, like I said, I
Speaker 1: think there's a ton of variables that none of which
Speaker 1: that I'm sure of By the way, shout out to
Speaker 1: Ralph also who tweeted out that, uh that grid last
Speaker 1: week or two weeks ago about where numbers fall now,
Speaker 1: where results fall, winning margins fall in NFL games now
Speaker 1: percentage wise for for teaser players, that was very interesting
Speaker 1: to look at. It does his homework, no doubt about.
Speaker 1: It's a hard worker. And here's what you said, here's
Speaker 1: what you take away from yesterday. Once again, as if
Speaker 1: we needed reminder, say what you will about Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 1: off the field, and lord knows there's a lot to say.
Speaker 1: Terry Bradshaw certainly didn't bite his tongue about it yesterday,
Speaker 1: but man on the football field, there's nothing like Aaron
Speaker 1: Rodgers versus whomever people eave. The Packers traded up for.
Speaker 1: Jordan loved too that See, that was my beef the
Speaker 1: whole time. If he fell to them. Yeah, okay, I
Speaker 1: can understand they traded up to get this guy. First
Speaker 1: of all, you know, he had like twenty interceptions or
Speaker 1: something his last year. We'll come back more guessing lines, numbers,
Speaker 1: Game Beast and the Sports Betting Network correction correction Chrissie
Speaker 1: from Michael Monasano. He says Jordan loved it not throw
Speaker 1: twenty picks his last year at Utah State twenty touchdowns
Speaker 1: in seventeen intersection fine ratio. Indeed, year before he was
Speaker 1: thirty two and six should be no um. We also
Speaker 1: had tweets at beating the book man Bear Pueek talking
Speaker 1: about how the Packers missed the two field goals and
Speaker 1: then they muffed the punt. Will NFL coh ever figure
Speaker 1: out that it's plus TV to never have a punt
Speaker 1: returner back. I don't hate that. I don't hate that,
Speaker 1: but I've always said I'll always tell my you know,
Speaker 1: when I'm rooting, catch the ball, and that's it. Just
Speaker 1: catch the ball. Well, we know what I hate to
Speaker 1: see it rolled on into the one on it yard
Speaker 1: punt that went forty yards. Catch the ball there and
Speaker 1: then stop. There's that, and then there's the of course,
Speaker 1: no one can help themselves but commit a block. Block
Speaker 1: in the back again, right, catch the ball and just stop.
Speaker 1: And as you said, on the brake, and it's so
Speaker 1: apparent on a punch they can see the block in
Speaker 1: the back every time. I don't know is there. There's
Speaker 1: there's no punt returner anymore, there's no there's no Devin Hester.
Speaker 1: There's no Mike Nelms, if I may thank you, there's Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's nobody who has that knack anymore. The Billy White Shoes,
Speaker 1: Johnson to the world and punt returning is a knack more.
Speaker 1: Johnny Rodgers for College, Johnny Rogers Nebraska. Those guys don't
Speaker 1: exist anymore. Um, all right, what's next job? We are
Speaker 1: into the late afternoon now, Gil, and we are gonna
Speaker 1: go h to Denver with the Eagles and the Broncos.
Speaker 1: How many afternoon games are there? Total? Next four? So actually,
Speaker 1: Seat and Green Bay is a late a four as well,
Speaker 1: but so is Philly and Denver. Philly is at Denver. Alright, Philly,
Speaker 1: as we mentioned, lose to the Chargers. Jalen Hurts eleven
Speaker 1: for seventeen, eleven of seventeen for one sixty two yards,
Speaker 1: one touchdown. Noe Pixie was stack once ten carries for
Speaker 1: sixty two yards. DeVonta Smith was his biggest target, five
Speaker 1: for one, sixteen and touchdown. They were eight of twelve
Speaker 1: on third downs, but they allowed two touchdowns and two
Speaker 1: field goals on the four Chargers possessions in the second half.
Speaker 1: And that's really was the story of the game. Uh,
Speaker 1: the Eagles are oh and four straight up at home
Speaker 1: this season. They're own three straight up after a win.
Speaker 1: I have a question for you about the Eagles coming up,
Speaker 1: but they're at Denver. We talked about how Denver was
Speaker 1: up on Dallas thirty to nothing. Dallas tried all those
Speaker 1: fourth downs, they couldn't get them done. And then when
Speaker 1: when the Broncos had to punt early in the second half,
Speaker 1: it looked like Dallas had blocked the punt, but then
Speaker 1: they touched it and it was like a Leon Lett
Speaker 1: kind of play where the Broncos maintained possession on the recovery.
Speaker 1: So Teddy Bridgewater was nineteen forty nine, one touchdown, no picks,
Speaker 1: sacked four times. That is Teddy's You love Teddy Bridgewater always.
Speaker 1: That is his sixth the game this season without an interception.
Speaker 1: More games are not lost than one. That's not what
Speaker 1: he could have been because of that devastating injury, but
Speaker 1: he's he's I mean, I I saw New Orleans was
Speaker 1: really trying to get him back. That would have been
Speaker 1: a great move for New Orleans. Javon Williams, by the way,
Speaker 1: seventeen carries for a hundred eleven Melvin Gordon one for
Speaker 1: eight in a touchdown. They out rushed Dallas Denver did
Speaker 1: on eight Tim Patrick for catches for eighty five yards
Speaker 1: of a touchdown. Denver ends up winning thirty to sixteen
Speaker 1: and again after the garbage time touchdowns for the Cowboys,
Speaker 1: where Mike McCarthy insisted on having Dak Prescott in the
Speaker 1: game for no particular reason. Um, I'll say Denver minus
Speaker 1: three and a half, and then I'll ask you my
Speaker 1: Philly question. Uh. You know, once again, I like your
Speaker 1: number better. It's two and a half and two and
Speaker 1: a half with some juice, I'm an open three and
Speaker 1: uh as I like to point out these guys think
Speaker 1: number one the game is definitely coming three and number
Speaker 1: two they'll never see another two and a half again
Speaker 1: the existence of bookmaking. So they'll come in and lay
Speaker 1: me the two and a half have at it. Uh.
Speaker 1: I'm not crazy about either one of these teams, you know, really,
Speaker 1: But I just think, you know, Denver by the way,
Speaker 1: I only give Denver two point home field advantage, which
Speaker 1: right now is eyes that give anybody. Uh but I
Speaker 1: my numbers came to four in this game. I just
Speaker 1: think Philly is not that good. But the wise guys
Speaker 1: love this team. Question why? I don't know? They yesterday
Speaker 1: against the Chargers. The why these guys pounded the Eagles
Speaker 1: whereas the public pounded the Chargers. They kicked off and
Speaker 1: I needed the Eagles. The public just totally overpowered him
Speaker 1: on this game. And I can see why. I mean,
Speaker 1: I didn't have a strong opinion on the game, but
Speaker 1: I thought the Chargers should be a three point favorite
Speaker 1: on the road. Um, but they love this Eagle team
Speaker 1: and don't don't. I don't know what they're gonna do
Speaker 1: with What is it? Jeff? I'll bring in Jeff to speculate.
Speaker 1: What is it about the Eagles that they love so much?
Speaker 1: I don't undert I've thought that team has been bad
Speaker 1: the whole year, with a bad coaching staff and a
Speaker 1: bad quarterback. So I don't get it either. And this
Speaker 1: is this is multiple weeks running. We saw the the
Speaker 1: the Raider game open three closed pick yesterday open one
Speaker 1: and a half closed pick. I I don't see it.
Speaker 1: I don't see it at all. What's the Mrs Lincoln
Speaker 1: line at the Ford Theater? But besides that, what do
Speaker 1: you think about the play right? Yeah, I mean bad quarterback,
Speaker 1: bad coach. You know, I really fought Sirianni. Not that
Speaker 1: I knew that much about him, I didn't, but I
Speaker 1: thought he might fit Jalen Hurts really well. And I
Speaker 1: guess if you look at qbrs, Jalen Hurts doesn't look
Speaker 1: that bad. But I mean you watch football games, and
Speaker 1: you know, I'm not sure he's an NFL quarterback, you know,
Speaker 1: starting NFL top notch quarterback. I mean, he's dangerous in
Speaker 1: his own way, but but if you're watching enough of him,
Speaker 1: you're like, well, an NFL quarterback makes that play right there?
Speaker 1: He doesn't. Let's do uh the Sunday night game here, Jeff,
Speaker 1: if we could good one locally just down the road
Speaker 1: from US Chiefs at Raiders. No, I will say this,
Speaker 1: the Chiefs again in victory, just like in victory against
Speaker 1: the Giants. Complete garbage. Patrick Mahomes yesterday, twenty of thirty
Speaker 1: seven for one sixties six. Again this has to be
Speaker 1: the record for the most winning quarterbacks with less than
Speaker 1: two yards passing twenty of thirty seven for one sixty six,
Speaker 1: one touchdown. Note picks sack once. Remember earlier when I
Speaker 1: was talking about Trevor Lawrence how Ha said he had
Speaker 1: the second lowest arts per attempted to win by a
Speaker 1: starter this year. Second lowest Patrick Mahomes yesterday in victory
Speaker 1: the lowest yards per attempt in a win by a
Speaker 1: starter all year four point four nine yards per attempt.
Speaker 1: It was his first game without an interception since week one.
Speaker 1: Patrick threw an interception in September. This first game without
Speaker 1: a pick since week one. But they find themselves at
Speaker 1: five and four, a half, a game behind the Raiders
Speaker 1: and the charts. She was in the a F C.
Speaker 1: West Kelsey five catches for sixty eight to touchdown. Yesterday,
Speaker 1: the Chiefs had fourth and one at their own forty
Speaker 1: five and a scoreless game, twelve thirty seven left in
Speaker 1: the first court quarter. They went forth. They converted That
Speaker 1: led to a seven nothing lead, but fourth and one
Speaker 1: at their own thirty nine to start at the second
Speaker 1: quarter up seven and nothing, two yard loss led that
Speaker 1: led to a Green Bay drive which resulted in one
Speaker 1: of Mason Crosby's missed field goals. It was a block
Speaker 1: field goal. Two minutes left, up thirteen to seven. Explained
Speaker 1: this to me. Two minutes left in the game. Chi
Speaker 1: Are up thirteen to seven. Green Bay has no time
Speaker 1: outs left, So what do you do there? On third down?
Speaker 1: You run, don't you? On third and ten you milk
Speaker 1: the clock and then green Bay you pin Jordan's love
Speaker 1: deep and no, no, they passed. So I'm thinking to myself,
Speaker 1: I'm like, if you throw an incomplete pass, you are
Speaker 1: bailing out the Packers entirely. Mahomes, the Tyreek, maybe his
Speaker 1: biggest play of the day for a first down, bailed
Speaker 1: him ount. That was the one play that he looked
Speaker 1: like Patrick Mahomes and he reacted like it was like
Speaker 1: he found himself. He's like, oh my god, that's me.
Speaker 1: I forgot about me or something. Uh. They out they
Speaker 1: out gained that. They were out gained by Green Bay
Speaker 1: three oh one to two thirty seven. They were plus
Speaker 1: terms and then the Raiders the Raiders. We haven't gotten
Speaker 1: to that game yet. Raiders lost the Giants Derek six
Speaker 1: two nine six, one touchdown, two picks with sack, once
Speaker 1: first game for Eric Carr with multiple picks this season.
Speaker 1: Raiders last three possessions missed twenty five yard field goal
Speaker 1: attempt and two turnovers. That's all you need right there.
Speaker 1: Jacob's thirteen for seventy six on the ground of wall
Speaker 1: or seven catches for ninety two. They outgained the Giants
Speaker 1: four oh three to two forty five and lost. They
Speaker 1: were minus two in turnovers and again the pick six theme.
Speaker 1: Xavier McKinney. One of his two picks was a pick
Speaker 1: six forty one yards of Derek Carr left in the
Speaker 1: third quarter that put the Giants ahead seventeen to thirteen.
Speaker 1: Biggest play of the game. I will say the Raiders
Speaker 1: will be favored, and I will say the Raiders will
Speaker 1: be favored by two and a half. I don't quite
Speaker 1: like your number better. I had the Raiders one. It's
Speaker 1: Kansas City two and a half and two and a
Speaker 1: half with juice. Wow. Yeah, I'm gonna open to an Africans.
Speaker 1: I'll probably leave it just about to say I have
Speaker 1: gone this entire show spectacularly well with guesses. Are you
Speaker 1: kidding me? I'm not kidding you, and I'll tell you
Speaker 1: right now. You've kind of alluded to it. There's something
Speaker 1: wrong in this Kansas City team as a coaching, the
Speaker 1: play calling. While that one worked in their favor, I
Speaker 1: can understand that may be a question. We'll call uh
Speaker 1: you know Andy Reid, Hall of Famer Eric b Enemy,
Speaker 1: you know, UH looks like one of the top offensive
Speaker 1: coordinators uh in the league that you know, I don't know.
Speaker 1: And the defense doesn't look terrible. Uh. There is something
Speaker 1: wrong with this team and they are living on past
Speaker 1: reputation right now. And uh, I am off this bandwagon.
Speaker 1: I didn't like it yesterday. I really thought, Um, you know,
Speaker 1: I thought it was gonna be an overreaction to the
Speaker 1: to the Rogers, you know, suspension, whatever you wanna call it. Uh.
Speaker 1: And we're lucky to cover them numbers, certainly, but you know,
Speaker 1: there's something wrong with Kansas City. They're not that good.
Speaker 1: I was just about to say how the sneaky part
Speaker 1: of this show today was how accurate I was all
Speaker 1: the guests to spend them. That happens. We'll come back,
Speaker 1: We'll do the Monday night game, our last game, and
Speaker 1: then we'll review everything we like, teaser legs, Survivor plays,
Speaker 1: although I'm not involved anymore, coming back, guessing lines, numbers,
Speaker 1: Game Vista, the sports metting that work skill Alexander Christie
Speaker 1: Andrews my Mishka from the South Point Hotel Casino Sports
Speaker 1: Book always so much fun to do this show with
Speaker 1: you two hours flies by Flies podcast days we take
Speaker 1: three hours story time and you would just go, We
Speaker 1: could just go for an hour. They were lucky if
Speaker 1: I was wearing my pants in our apartment in San Francisco.
Speaker 1: Those were the days. Um, but look what it Look
Speaker 1: what it led to. We get to do this still today.
Speaker 1: And I'll tell you the podcast numbers. We air this show,
Speaker 1: people get to listen to it, and then it's put
Speaker 1: on podcast, and the podcast numbers are out of this world,
Speaker 1: even with the first And I have a lot of
Speaker 1: fun doing it. It's the best. You're like, this is
Speaker 1: the last thing I ever do for free. I've held that.
Speaker 1: We've held to that all right. The Monday Night gave
Speaker 1: Jeffrey Rams at Forts Rams and Niners. By the way,
Speaker 1: this is from Spike on Twitter. Spike McGruder, Dante Hall
Speaker 1: another unreal forgotten in it. Yeah. Oh he was good. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they don't exist any more of those guys. Rams at Niners. Okay.
Speaker 1: The Rams lose that game to the Titans last night.
Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford doing his best Carson Wentz invitation ends up
Speaker 1: thirty one one touchdown to Pick sacked five times I
Speaker 1: said the Bills were soft yesterday. The Rams look soft
Speaker 1: against Tennessee. Soft protecting Stafford up in the middle. Would
Speaker 1: seven cup By the way, isn't Stafford like six ft?
Speaker 1: But we were talking about this last night, Michael Montessano
Speaker 1: and I were mentioning this, Uh, Matthew Staffords like six
Speaker 1: ft five inches tall or something like that. He gets
Speaker 1: more balls batted down at the line of scrimmage that
Speaker 1: any six five dude I've ever seen. Noticed that about
Speaker 1: him just seems like it. Um. I don't know. Maybe
Speaker 1: it's just US twelve penalties for a hundred fifteen yards
Speaker 1: for the Rams. That was the other thing the Rams
Speaker 1: and the Bills had in common yesterday. Just penalties every
Speaker 1: which way. Uh. San Francisco losing to the Kyler less
Speaker 1: DeAndre list aj greenless Cardinals. Jimmy Garoppolo twenty eight of
Speaker 1: forty three, twenty six, two touchdowns, one pick, sack five times.
Speaker 1: Kittle six for one on one in a touchdown, ayouk
Speaker 1: show it up six for eighty nine in a touchdown,
Speaker 1: but both of them fumbled Kittle and Ayouke and both
Speaker 1: led to Cardinals. Cardinals points in the first half, the
Speaker 1: Niners were minus three in turnovers. They gave up four
Speaker 1: dred thirty seven total yards. They are one in twelve
Speaker 1: straight up in their last thirteen games at home. I
Speaker 1: finally gave him a zero for home field. There is
Speaker 1: oh they deserve a zero. Have you ever been to
Speaker 1: Levi Stadium before? It is a beautifully antiseptic stadium. There's
Speaker 1: nothing to it. By the way, they had a fourth
Speaker 1: and thirteen at the Arizona thirty nine down thirty one
Speaker 1: to fourteen with thirteen o eight left, and they punted.
Speaker 1: That's the ant the anti you know trend in the
Speaker 1: NFL of going forward on fourth downs. Let me repeat that.
Speaker 1: The Niners had the ball fourth and thirteen at the
Speaker 1: Arizona thirty nine down seventeen points with thirteen o eight left,
Speaker 1: and they punted. I don't care if it's fourth and twenty,
Speaker 1: go for throw the Colts makeup. Just throw the ball up,
Speaker 1: have a dB run into somebody you punted. Kyle Shanahan
Speaker 1: man worst record than Mike Singletary had to saying Rams.
Speaker 1: I put it no man's land. I said, no man's land.
Speaker 1: I said Rams minus five and a half. I don't
Speaker 1: quite like your number better, but close my numbers came
Speaker 1: the four and a half. It's four pretty much universal.
Speaker 1: You know, I think I'll probably open forward just to
Speaker 1: kind of test the water. If I see a trending high,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go up. I said, I've given them now
Speaker 1: a zero for home field advantage. They might be negative
Speaker 1: at home field and they might be better on the road.
Speaker 1: The Niners and Washington franchises followed the exact same trajectory.
Speaker 1: They both won multiple Super Bowls in baseball converted stadiums
Speaker 1: r and Candlestick stadiums that were not old for football.
Speaker 1: They were very awkward, both of the alignments. And then
Speaker 1: they both moved out of the city to suburban shangri
Speaker 1: laws right rawl John right, excuse me, not really sang
Speaker 1: in that case. But the stadiums were at the times
Speaker 1: were like the best. You know. Washington was the most
Speaker 1: stupid because they got one of these ridiculous river front
Speaker 1: three river stadiums right when those stadiums were going out.
Speaker 1: So it's it's even worse. But they both moved out
Speaker 1: of the city and they both ended up with zero
Speaker 1: home field advantage almost from day one. There is zero
Speaker 1: right now, Like I said, they may be negative and
Speaker 1: this year. I don't know why I used to have
Speaker 1: I used to have Washington is at one point. They're
Speaker 1: one and a half now and why did I have
Speaker 1: that half? I have no idea. I gotta take a
Speaker 1: look at that. That must be an error. You're like,
Speaker 1: maybe I hit on my computer. No way, Yeah, they
Speaker 1: shouldn't be one and half. But yeah, San Francisco's a zero.
Speaker 1: By the way, should we start calling Santa Clara. It's
Speaker 1: not even the same county. Um. But anyway, like I said,
Speaker 1: my numbers come the four and a half. You know,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna you know that ramp performance was was awful
Speaker 1: yesterday and where's my qbrs? Stafford was seventeen point six? Terrible, terrible.
Speaker 1: The guys still in the hunt for the m v P.
Speaker 1: He's had a great year. He had a terrible game
Speaker 1: this year, but he was pressured up the middle. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean he really was pressured horribly. Issue and that
Speaker 1: stuff you're saying about Kyle Shanahan. You know, we gotta
Speaker 1: look at that. You know, that's uh. I don't know,
Speaker 1: I'm starting to really sour on this guy and think
Speaker 1: about the players, like I meant this, they they you know,
Speaker 1: they got trace Sermon, but they seem to like Elijah.
Speaker 1: I was getting Elijah more and Mitchell mixed up. They
Speaker 1: seem to like Elijah Mitchell better than they like Sermon. Then,
Speaker 1: like they have, you know, the whole Garoppolo lance thing.
Speaker 1: They seem to like Garoppolo better. They just some very
Speaker 1: strange moves with their with their personnel too. It's like, well,
Speaker 1: why did you drop these guys so um worse than
Speaker 1: Mike Singletary. That says right there. I couldn't believe it.
Speaker 1: I would have trouble believing that too. All right, So
Speaker 1: what did we like the best? Just off the top
Speaker 1: of my head. Titans based on the number the spread
Speaker 1: Titans and Raiders for me, Oh my god, I got five,
Speaker 1: though I'm sure there's more. I'm just I got five.
Speaker 1: I like that's way too many. Four of them are favorites.
Speaker 1: I like the Ravens, the Titans, the Chargers charges just
Speaker 1: a little though, you know, I like the Ravens to
Speaker 1: the Broncos and the Raiders the Broncos too. Yeah. Oh no,
Speaker 1: we like the same things. And it's way too many.
Speaker 1: That's that's a lot. But I mean, that's that's kind
Speaker 1: of what I like, at first glance, that's my great show.
Speaker 1: I really enjoyed it. One thing really hurt Oh no, Grandpa,
Speaker 1: I know, Marley, I hear you laughing back there, even
Speaker 1: about uncle not my uncle, a little better than it
Speaker 1: hurts you for like an hour and a half you've
Speaker 1: been doing. I think we're two hours. But okay. And
Speaker 1: and the poor it was it, man, I believe on
Speaker 1: Twitter the poor guy was just trying to give you
Speaker 1: a compliment too, and he went, no, she has a
Speaker 1: great personality. I noticed that people call me sir now
Speaker 1: way more than they used to. I'm like, stop calling
Speaker 1: me sir. In my head, all right, Jeff, what did
Speaker 1: you like the best of all these? By the way,
Speaker 1: Jeff Parlay, everybody, there's only one. I like, there's a
Speaker 1: bunch of maybes. Like Baltimore is in the maybe pile,
Speaker 1: the U the Chargers are in the maybe pile. The
Speaker 1: Broncos are in the maybe pile. But the the Kansas
Speaker 1: City Chiefs being favored on the road, that's the only
Speaker 1: one that made no sense against the team that remember
Speaker 1: last year when Kansas City was still good, the Raiders
Speaker 1: one in Arrowhead and the game here the Raiders matched
Speaker 1: them every single time in Kansas City one because they
Speaker 1: had the ball last. Tell me, the Raiders aren't gonna
Speaker 1: win in this game outright and win this game comfortably?
Speaker 1: They only spread that. That That couldn't only number that makes
Speaker 1: no made no sense to me. You saw it by
Speaker 1: my guests. I couldn't believe it. I had the Raiders,
Speaker 1: I have the Titans. Made no sense to me. That
Speaker 1: didn't either. You. Uh so teaser Legs then Baltimore. I
Speaker 1: get it. It's not a long teaser, like because they're
Speaker 1: a rout team, but you could essentially tease Baltimore down
Speaker 1: through the seven and three? Um, could Browns teaser Raiders?
Speaker 1: Those are long teasers? Yes, you could tease New Orleans too,
Speaker 1: right is that two and a half? No, where's New
Speaker 1: Orleans and tennis? Yeah, well it's not one? Okay? What
Speaker 1: were the two? Browns? And Browns and Raiders? Browns and
Speaker 1: Raiders or I guess you could the Eagles too, right? Yeah? Well, yeah,
Speaker 1: I guess you could. Yeah, Brown's Raiders, Eagles and and yeah,
Speaker 1: oh so the Raiders. Yea Eagles. That wouldn't be a
Speaker 1: bad teaser. Raiders and Ravens leaps off the page for me.
Speaker 1: Give me that and maybe the Browns too, all right,
Speaker 1: and then survivor for those of you lucky enough to
Speaker 1: still be in it. I would not be one of them.
Speaker 1: Baltimore Pittsburgh, We're gonna be one of my choices. Those
Speaker 1: were gonna be my choices next week, Baltimore Pittsburgh. But
Speaker 1: I guess if you hadn't played Indianapolis yet, they'd be available.
Speaker 1: If you hadn't played Buffalo yet, they'd be available. So
Speaker 1: would Dallas, so would Tampa Bay. Many a choice, many
Speaker 1: a choice. Sadly, I will not be involved, thanks a
Speaker 1: lot Buffalo Bills. Two years in a row. I've gone
Speaker 1: deep and lost with the biggest favorite on the boards
Speaker 1: seventeen points last year, and then what was it yesterday?
Speaker 1: Fifteen and a half, right, Chris sixteen? I even saw
Speaker 1: sixteen and a half. I could have I could have
Speaker 1: gone in sixteen and half my own. Michael Lombardi is next.
Speaker 1: Oh he's got lots to day. I'm sure. Michael Lombardi,
Speaker 1: who I believe was three and oh three and o
Speaker 1: was dogs yesterday for him. Lombardi line next with the
Speaker 1: great Michael Lombardi and enjoy. Thank you, Crizzy as always appreciative.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Jeff, from all of us at BACENT, the
Speaker 1: S Fourts Betting Network that time, the first PA