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Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Toomberg eleventh, to Washington, d C.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve, under to San Francisco, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: nine to the country, US Exam General one nine team,

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Speaker 1: and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio plus Aid Boomberg

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Speaker 1: dot Com. This is taking Stock. Hi, I'm Kathleen. He's

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Speaker 1: my co host, Pim Fox. Out of the office today.

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Speaker 1: In this half hour, we are going to be taking

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Speaker 1: a big picture kind of political look at some very

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Speaker 1: important events. Today. We've got Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee,

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Speaker 1: giving him an important foreign policy speech starting momentarily where

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Speaker 1: she's expected to attack Donald Trump on his lack of

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Speaker 1: a foreign policy vision. And we're gonna be looking at

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Speaker 1: the Opeque meeting today, no quota met downward pressure on

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Speaker 1: oil prices. If supply weren't lower in the United States,

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Speaker 1: oil prices might be falling more than they are. We're

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Speaker 1: going to take a look at these and maybe even

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Speaker 1: tie them together in a few important respects. Now, let's

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Speaker 1: tie it all together. We're gonna go to Charlie Pelton

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Speaker 1: Issiam with a bloombig business flash, and I thank you

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Speaker 1: very much. Kathleen Hayes plenty going on. We've got the

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Speaker 1: jobs report tomorrow, but as you mentioned, we've got that

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Speaker 1: OPEC meeting today. Crude oil now up eight cents forty

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Speaker 1: nine O nine a barrel on West Texas Intermediate two

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Speaker 1: tenths of one percent. And also the ECB decision. ECB

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Speaker 1: President Mario Draggy unveiling largely unchanged inflation forecast for the

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Speaker 1: Eurozone even as its latest stimulus measures start to take effect.

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Speaker 1: He also called on governments to play a bigger role

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Speaker 1: in cementing the region's pick up. The latest data point

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Speaker 1: to ongoing growth in the second quarter, though possibly at

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Speaker 1: a lower rate than in the first quarter. Looking ahead,

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Speaker 1: we expect the economic recovery to proceed at a moderate

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Speaker 1: but steady pace. The ten year of eight thirty seconds

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Speaker 1: zeal there one point eight oh percent. Filings for US

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Speaker 1: unemployment benefits to climb for a third consecutive weeks. Signalings

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Speaker 1: sustained firming in the labor market, jovels claims down by

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Speaker 1: one thousand. Tomorrow morning, eight thirty A on Wall Street Time,

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Speaker 1: we get the all important May jobs report. Payrolls seen

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Speaker 1: climbing by one hundred sixty thousand, the unemployment rates scene

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Speaker 1: falling to four point nine percent, SMP five hundred index

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Speaker 1: up two point. Stocks are rebounding. The SMP now at

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Speaker 1: one up by point one percent down, Industrials up twenty points,

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Speaker 1: a gain of point one percent, nastack of eight a

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Speaker 1: gain of two tenths of one percent, and at two

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Speaker 1: thirty two on Wall Street. Now, let's take a look

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Speaker 1: at other news from around the world. On Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Thank you Charlie from the Bloomberg News Room, my Ramie Innocentio.

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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton has said to unleash a major foreign policy

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Speaker 1: attack on Donald Trump at this hour, using a speech

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Speaker 1: in San Diego today to cast the likely Republican presidential

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Speaker 1: nominee as unqualified and dangerous. The former Secretary of State

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Speaker 1: plans to contrast her foreign policy experience with his. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are locked in a tight

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Speaker 1: battle in California. Clinton has a slight lead over Sanders

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Speaker 1: forty to forty in a new Field Pole a New

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Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal NBC News Maris Pole found similar results,

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Speaker 1: with Clinton leading Sanders for the state's primary is Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: The fallout continues from North Korea's recent missile tests. Bloomberg's

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Speaker 1: Michael Barr has more. The U. N. Security Council is

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Speaker 1: calling North Korea's failed missile launches flagrant violations. The Council

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Speaker 1: has strongly condemned the three latest launches. The council calls

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Speaker 1: them a grave violation of a ban on all ballistic

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Speaker 1: missile activity that's contributed to the country's nuclear weapons program.

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Speaker 1: Michael Barr Bloomberg Radio more. What weather is on the

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Speaker 1: way for Texas emergency official state the Brazos River is

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Speaker 1: already four feet higher than its record and still rising.

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Speaker 1: Donna Cheshire, who lives in Lubbick, says she's never seen

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Speaker 1: the flooding so bad. I've seen it bad when you know,

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Speaker 1: in the cars would come and it would wash up

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Speaker 1: in the yard, but never where it would get into

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Speaker 1: the house. But it actually came in my house. And

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Speaker 1: the New York City lawyer says the city's police force

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Speaker 1: has thwarted numerous terrorist attacks, despite claims by some critics

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Speaker 1: that its methods do not work. Global News twenty four

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Speaker 1: hours a day, powered by our journalists in more than

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Speaker 1: one fifty news bureaus around the world. From the Bloomberg Newsroom,

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Speaker 1: I'm Rainy in essentio Charlie and we thank you and

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Speaker 1: again recapping stocks higher across the board. SMP five hundred

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Speaker 1: index up two points to one again of point one.

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Speaker 1: I'm Charlie Vllett and that's a Bloomberg Business flash. This

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Speaker 1: is taking stock with Kathleen Hayes and Grim Box on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. OPEC is going to stick to its policy

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Speaker 1: of unfettered production after members failed again to agree on

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Speaker 1: a new output ceiling. However, ministers are united in their

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Speaker 1: optimism that global oil markets markets are improving, and the

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Speaker 1: group was also able to appoint a news Secretary General,

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Speaker 1: Nigeria's Mohammed Barkindo, something that couldn't agree on last year.

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Speaker 1: Mr Barkindo gave some remarks today saying that the group

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Speaker 1: is going to work to regain the unity it had

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Speaker 1: had in the past and the confidence of the international

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Speaker 1: community UH, saying that OPEC is making a comeback as

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Speaker 1: it overcomes temporary difficulties. Now he's in Vienna today, not

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Speaker 1: only Mr Barkindo, but our next guest, Jason Shanker, president

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Speaker 1: of Prestige Economics. He's based in Austin, Texas, but he's

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Speaker 1: joining us from Austria today where Opek met. So, Jason,

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Speaker 1: what is your sense of the mood coming out of

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Speaker 1: this putting the best face on the fact that they

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Speaker 1: couldn't agree on a quota or is it is it

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Speaker 1: true that the meetings were not rankers, they were a

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Speaker 1: little friendlier and they're heading towards more of an agreement

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Speaker 1: in the future. So I think it's both. So I

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Speaker 1: think the eating was less rancorous. It was described as

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Speaker 1: you know, amenable and friendly and the sorts of things,

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Speaker 1: and you know, it wasn't as it has been at

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Speaker 1: past meetings where you have people kind of storm out

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Speaker 1: of the meeting and that's not as good. But that

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Speaker 1: being said, even though it was a more positive meeting,

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Speaker 1: no production quota was adopted, No target was adopted. Uh

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Speaker 1: and UH. I know that the Saudis had worked very

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Speaker 1: hard to put together what turned out to be quite

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Speaker 1: a complicated proposal that they thought would make the interests

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Speaker 1: of both Iran and Saudi and all the rest of

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Speaker 1: the members, and yet it wasn't accepted and there's no

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Speaker 1: production number. Again, So where will the price of oil go? Today?

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Speaker 1: We've got West Texas Intermediate trading around forty nine dollars

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Speaker 1: and change just slightly higher. So it has certainly hasn't

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Speaker 1: um taken a beating on this news today? Is the

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Speaker 1: bottom in for oil now? Well, I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: if we look back to where we were in January,

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Speaker 1: I think that, yeah, I mean, we've come a long

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Speaker 1: way since those loads in January, but that doesn't mean

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Speaker 1: that there aren't downside risks. And I'd say, if you

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Speaker 1: wanted to assess where those risks are, I would probably

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Speaker 1: be looking at industrial medals prices like copper or aluminum,

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Speaker 1: or fair scrap prices, which, although we're stronger a couple

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Speaker 1: of months ago, have taken a beating in the last

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Speaker 1: six weeks um following a couple of very weak Chinese

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Speaker 1: p m I numbers. The schene Um just out on

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Speaker 1: the first of the month out yesterday showed that Chinese

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Speaker 1: manufacturing has been contracting for seventeen in the past eighteen

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Speaker 1: consecutive months. That's a year and a half of a

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Speaker 1: manufacturing recession in China's been going on, and that's thirty

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Speaker 1: of their economy. So that's hurting medals and there's a

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Speaker 1: risk as in the last two years, when the summer

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Speaker 1: driving season ends uh, that oil prices could follow medals

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Speaker 1: lower regardless of a supply demand balance. Well, you know

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Speaker 1: our Bloomberg story about keeping the status quo after feeling

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Speaker 1: to cree on output cap said, the fact that oil

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Speaker 1: has rallied about from the twelve year old January suggests

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Speaker 1: the Saudi led decision a couple of years ago to

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Speaker 1: maintain output amid a global glut, in fact maybe make

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Speaker 1: it worse. It's finally paying off with higher cost producers

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Speaker 1: cutting back. So I think, uh, that is partially true.

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Speaker 1: So that the um, you know, the the vet tolet prices,

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Speaker 1: to to let go of the rudder and let the

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Speaker 1: market kind of find its own way has paid off.

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Speaker 1: Higher cost producers have been forced out of the market.

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Speaker 1: More producers will be forced out of the market because

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Speaker 1: fifty dollars isn't very profitable for some producers, and campex

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Speaker 1: has been cut significantly in the United States. Now that

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Speaker 1: being said, while that has been good for OPEC market share,

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Speaker 1: the prices are still low enough that this is problematic

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Speaker 1: for a number of opaque economies even at fifty dollars.

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Speaker 1: And if you look at some of the I m

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Speaker 1: F growth forecast or some uh, pretty dis more growth

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Speaker 1: forecast for some OPEC members in the year ahead. And

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Speaker 1: of course not all OPEC members operate on the same

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Speaker 1: cost curve, so this is something that is uh yeah,

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Speaker 1: it could could prove beneficial for OPEC providing oil into

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Speaker 1: the market, but also hurts the profitability of some of

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Speaker 1: those members. You know. A very smart fellow named Jason Shanker,

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Speaker 1: Oh that's you, president of Stige Economics, also quoted this story.

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Speaker 1: The lack of oil production targets bears for prices because

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Speaker 1: the hopes of ideal to increased in the past couple

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Speaker 1: of days. Jason Shanker says, say goodbye to OPEX efficacy

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Speaker 1: as united groups. So you don't think Mohammed Markendo is

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Speaker 1: the guy to to pull this group strongly together again.

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Speaker 1: I mean, is OPEC really over as the powerhouse of

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Speaker 1: the oil setting market oil price setting market. No, you know,

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's over, and I don't think that

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Speaker 1: the Secretary General is the one who should be uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, really put to task with pulling the group together.

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Speaker 1: It's uh, you know, I think it's unfortunate for the

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Speaker 1: group that that there were attempts to try to have

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Speaker 1: cohesion and it didn't come together. But after a couple

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Speaker 1: of meetings where there's no production target, something that had

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Speaker 1: been in place for thirty five years. Uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: I think markets look at this and they begin to wonder, Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, does OPEC still have a leadership role. There's

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Speaker 1: not really a uniform set of decisions. What does this mean?

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Speaker 1: Are they going to remain effective moving forward? Will things

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Speaker 1: improve when Iranian production gets back to sort of pre

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Speaker 1: embargo levels. Is that when there's going to be more

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Speaker 1: of a negotiation. Those are the questions out there right now.

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Speaker 1: Jason Shaker, thanks so much for joining us. I hope

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Speaker 1: you have a nice time in Vienna where Jason's been

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Speaker 1: attending the OPEC meeting today. No output target met, he says,

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Speaker 1: that is still bearish for oil prices. I'm Kathleen Hayes.

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Speaker 1: This is taking Stock on Bloomberg Radio. Bloomber Taking Stock

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