WEBVTT - Former US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross Talks Tariffs and the Market

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's take it off with the news of the day,

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<v Speaker 2>which of course is the auto tariffs that have been

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<v Speaker 2>announced in the last twenty four hours or so, all

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<v Speaker 2>in anticipation of Liberation Day, as a Trump administration calls it,

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<v Speaker 2>going into next week. Walk us through from your experience

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<v Speaker 2>with the Trump administration, what the end goal here is

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<v Speaker 2>of these tariffs.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I think he has a couple of end goals.

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<v Speaker 1>One of course, is to relocate manufacturing back to the

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<v Speaker 1>United States. And our biggest shade problem is actually auto.

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<v Speaker 1>There's hundreds of billions of dollars of problems. So one

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<v Speaker 1>of his objectives is move manufacturing back. The second objective

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<v Speaker 1>is to gain more revenues, because to the degree that

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<v Speaker 1>the tariffs are paid, there will be more revenues coming in.

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<v Speaker 1>And then the third is to hopefully have the potential

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<v Speaker 1>inflationary effects of those items offset won by cent changes

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<v Speaker 1>and currency. If you notice, the currencies have already been

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<v Speaker 1>weakening against the dollars, so that will absorb part of

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<v Speaker 1>it from the American consumment. I believe that the foreign

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<v Speaker 1>manufacturers will also absorb part. My guesses that in many

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<v Speaker 1>cases their governments will absorb some and some will be

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<v Speaker 1>passed on to the US. And in the US, since

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<v Speaker 1>most companies are only operating at seventy to eighty percent

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<v Speaker 1>of capacity, it can absorbed some hit because the incremental

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<v Speaker 1>production is relatively low cost as you move up from

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<v Speaker 1>seventy or eighty four to hundred.

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<v Speaker 2>Does that apply, Secretary Ross when it comes to reciprocal

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<v Speaker 2>tariffs as well, does the math work in the same way.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it all depends how he puts them in. My

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<v Speaker 1>hope is that what he'll pick out is a limited number,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe three, four, five, of the very important ones and

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<v Speaker 1>put the same terror for every country on those. If

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<v Speaker 1>he goes a different route, for example, if he went

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<v Speaker 1>the route of saying the average blended rate from this

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<v Speaker 1>particular country is x, and will apply that blended rate

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<v Speaker 1>to everything they do, then you'd have an anomaly in

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<v Speaker 1>that it would mean more of a terraff on the

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<v Speaker 1>lowest tariff goods and less of a tariff than matching

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<v Speaker 1>on the highest price. So it's very complicated to implement,

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<v Speaker 1>and what I think it wouldn't work very well would

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<v Speaker 1>be to say this country has a soonso percent terraff

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<v Speaker 1>and this other country has a five percent higher terror

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<v Speaker 1>and put in different tariffs on the same product. That

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<v Speaker 1>would be very very hard. It would probably lead to

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<v Speaker 1>transshipment and thereby create a loophole that to teach the

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<v Speaker 1>the tiff to begin.

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<v Speaker 2>With, right, Secretary Arouns, Donald Trump has talked about and

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<v Speaker 2>his colleagues I say, should have talked about very often

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<v Speaker 2>when it comes to reciprocal tariffs, including things that one

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<v Speaker 2>would not traditionally include, for example, things like regulation coming

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<v Speaker 2>out of the European Union, taxes like the VAT, among

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<v Speaker 2>other examples. Non tarri iff barriers, I believe is the

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<v Speaker 2>phrasing he used. If the goal is to remove the

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<v Speaker 2>barriers and to remove the regulation and make it easier

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<v Speaker 2>for American companies to operate abroad. When those barriers are reached,

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<v Speaker 2>do you think Donald Trump will respond in the same

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<v Speaker 2>way aka remove tariffs or remove barriers from the United

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<v Speaker 2>States that he's placing right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, non tariff trade barriers are in many cases even

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<v Speaker 1>worse impediments to our trade than the tariff barriers. For example,

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<v Speaker 1>the EU bars bans GMO enhanced foods. That's worse than

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<v Speaker 1>any tariff because it means we simply cannot ship it

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<v Speaker 1>into them. Similarly, the VAT. If a Mercedes is bought

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<v Speaker 1>in Germany, there's a VAT on it, and in most

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<v Speaker 1>countries it's around twenty five percent, But those same countries

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<v Speaker 1>rebate the VAT on export. So without tariffs on our side,

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<v Speaker 1>the Mercedes would literally cost less in the US than

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<v Speaker 1>it does in Germany. Whereas, in contrast, since we don't

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<v Speaker 1>have a VAT or anything else that we can rebate

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<v Speaker 1>on export, a car ship from the US pays the VAT,

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<v Speaker 1>So an American car ship to a VAT country costs

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<v Speaker 1>more in that country than it does at home. So

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<v Speaker 1>VAT is a component of the disparity.

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<v Speaker 2>Secretary Ross, let me bring it back to your first

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<v Speaker 2>point about increasing manufacturing within the borders of the United States.

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<v Speaker 2>Critics of that strategy would say the volatility surrounding the

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<v Speaker 2>tariff announcements is enough to disincentivize any sort of credibility

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<v Speaker 2>that a long term investment in the United States is

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<v Speaker 2>a good idea. If the economics of tariff's work, do

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<v Speaker 2>you think the execution of them is a concern, Well.

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<v Speaker 1>The execution is a concern, and to my mind, the

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<v Speaker 1>simpler and more broadly based. He makes them the better

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<v Speaker 1>because the way you actually implement parents is each product

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<v Speaker 1>needs to have a six or so digit code number

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<v Speaker 1>associated with it, and it's that code number that's used

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<v Speaker 1>for enforcement. So the more products, and there are tens

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<v Speaker 1>of thousands of products that we import, the more products

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<v Speaker 1>that you've changed things on or vary them by country,

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<v Speaker 1>the more complicated the implementation become.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, Sir Tree Ross, I'd like to stick with that

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<v Speaker 2>line of thinking and talk about maybe a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>of what's driving some of the domestic policy within the

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<v Speaker 2>United States as well. On the campaign trail, Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 2>has been quite vocal about the idea that tariff revenue

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<v Speaker 2>can help pave the way for an extension of his

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<v Speaker 2>twenty seventeen tax cuts, or even further tax cuts for

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<v Speaker 2>the American public. Does the math add up there? Does

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<v Speaker 2>more tariff revenue from outside of the United States help

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<v Speaker 2>the Trump administration issue tax cuts for the people within?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, surely it does. Whatever revenues come into the government

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<v Speaker 1>can either be used to reduce the deficit or be

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<v Speaker 1>passed on to the public. So money is fungible once

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<v Speaker 1>once it comes in, and I think part of what

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<v Speaker 1>has people confused is President Trump does have multiple objectives

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<v Speaker 1>for the tariff, But in a sense those multiple objectives

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<v Speaker 1>mean it's a win win in that to the degree

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<v Speaker 1>that the goods still come in and tariff is paid,

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<v Speaker 1>that will go into our treasury. To the degree that

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<v Speaker 1>goods are no longer imported but made here, they'll be

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<v Speaker 1>less command to the treasury from terrace, but more coming

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<v Speaker 1>in from the tax revenues paid by the manufacturing facilities

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<v Speaker 1>set up here. So either way there is an implication

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<v Speaker 1>for federal revenue and therefore for potential tax.

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<v Speaker 2>Cuts, Sir terry ross the way. Donald Trump is also

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<v Speaker 2>potentially addressing the deficit and some of the costs around.

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<v Speaker 2>The US government has also been, in addition to tariff revenue,

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<v Speaker 2>talking about reducing the federal workforce. You've seen Doge as

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<v Speaker 2>one example of pretty swift actions in reducing that workforce.

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<v Speaker 2>Is there anything you would do differently in terms of

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<v Speaker 2>perhaps the end goals that DOGE has.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, they know they have to act very quickly, and

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<v Speaker 1>the reason is this some of the measures probably will

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<v Speaker 1>end up needing congressional approval, and by September of this year,

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<v Speaker 1>all that the Congress will be focusing on will be

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<v Speaker 1>the midterm elections, and that means they will be very

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<v Speaker 1>unlikely after that period to do anything that's controversial. So

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<v Speaker 1>part of the reason there's a great rough here is

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<v Speaker 1>the political cycle relative to the congressional elections. But there's

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<v Speaker 1>also another reason, as I've learned from my working on

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<v Speaker 1>disdress companies, and you can say the US government is

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<v Speaker 1>perhaps the largest distressed company in the world. The way

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<v Speaker 1>that it's best to fix it is try to get

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<v Speaker 1>as close as you can to one big bang, so

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<v Speaker 1>that people know, Okay, they survived the last job cut.

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<v Speaker 1>There's not going to be another one next week and

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<v Speaker 1>the week after in the week after. Much better try

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<v Speaker 1>to do it in one big bang, and that's why

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<v Speaker 1>you're seeing him try to come very quickly with cuts. Now.

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<v Speaker 1>Killing that fast undoubtedly mean there will be mistakes. Then

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<v Speaker 1>some of those people will have to be rehired. But

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<v Speaker 1>that's an unfortunate consequence, but it's inevitable when you're having

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<v Speaker 1>to travel at the speed that they are.