1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:05,040 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast. 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these 3 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 2: people over for a second. 4 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM, 5 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: the King of Sportsbooks. Brendan Glasheen in the host chair, 6 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:37,880 Speaker 1: back with Billy Ward and Sean Zarrillo. One week hiatus 7 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: and the UFC is back. Time for best bets around 8 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: the UFC. Looking at the card for UFC Vegas ninety 9 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 1: one at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. 10 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 3: All right, gentlemen, after a week off. 11 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 1: We get from what I've gathered is a difficult card 12 00:00:57,240 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: to swallow, but hey, it's part of the deal. 13 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 3: It's on the schedule. We show up and we do 14 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 3: our jobs. Right, that's the idea. So let's dive right in, 15 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 3: shall we. 16 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 1: The main event Matteas Nicolau takes on Alex Perez Perez 17 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:17,320 Speaker 1: the Dog at plus one fifty Nicolau at minus one eighty. Shanzarello, 18 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 1: you do have thoughts on this fight, more so than 19 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,959 Speaker 1: an edge or a comfortable side that you're on. So 20 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 1: assess the fight for us and then try to nibble 21 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: down as to what you might want to bet for 22 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 1: the fight. 23 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, I have a pretty good track record betting these 24 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 4: main events, and I've had a difficult time narrowing down 25 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 4: my definitive take on this fight. I have gone back 26 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 4: and forth a lot, and I feel like sometimes the 27 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 4: more thoughts I have on a fight, the less definitive 28 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 4: betting take I do have, And it means because I 29 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 4: could see it playing out in a variety of ways. 30 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 4: Now I ultimately settled on the value sides being Alex 31 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 4: Perez at plus one fifty or better and the fight 32 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 4: to go to a decision at about plus one forty currently, 33 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 4: But I do need to see way and you kind 34 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 4: of always need to see a way ins for Alex 35 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 4: Perez fights. He's absolutely draining himself to cut the one 36 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 4: twenty five, but he's too small to go up to 37 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:09,240 Speaker 4: one thirty five, so you need to see how he 38 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 4: looks on the scales. He's also taking this fight on 39 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 4: short notice. I believe it in place to tier at 40 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 4: lund Bekov, so taking a five round fight on short 41 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:21,399 Speaker 4: notice weightcutting always a difficult thing for him. But that said, 42 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 4: you do like to see Alex Perez being active and 43 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 4: being back in the cage and coming off of a 44 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 4: three round fight where he was extremely competitive and probably 45 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:30,959 Speaker 4: a couple of punches landed in the third round or 46 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 4: a little bit more activity in the third round. Away 47 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:37,519 Speaker 4: from beating Mohammed Makaiev, He's had thirteen canceled fights since 48 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 4: twenty nineteen, so it's good to see Perez in the octagon, 49 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:42,959 Speaker 4: good to see him fighting, good to see him going 50 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 4: all fifteen minutes now. Ultimately, the dynamics of this matchup 51 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 4: I do think kind of play out as a moderate 52 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:52,920 Speaker 4: pace striking match where Rez is going to be more 53 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 4: on the front foot applying pressure. In Nikolau it's going 54 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 4: to be a little bit more comfortable off of the back, 55 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 4: backfoot looking counter I think has the offensive submission grappling upside. 56 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 4: But I think Perez is a better wrestler and he's 57 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 4: going to be able to dictate where the fight takes place. 58 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 4: So Perez can probably counter wrestle, keep this one standing, 59 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 4: look to make it a close, competitive shriking match. Maybe 60 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 4: look to get on top of Nicolau and consolidate position, 61 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:19,080 Speaker 4: but he's very vulnerable to submissions when he does try 62 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 4: to grapple, could absolutely get his neck tied up or 63 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 4: get you know, flipped in a scramble here and Nicolau 64 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 4: can end on top if these. 65 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 5: Two decided grapples. 66 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 4: So I don't see, you know, particularly active striking huge 67 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 4: power from either guy. I think the biggest threat to 68 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 4: finishing the fight is likely Nicolau via submission. But Nicolau 69 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 4: in the same respect was just kod for Brandon roy 70 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 4: Vel a few months ago, and you never know the 71 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,240 Speaker 4: kind of physical effects that that's going to have, especially 72 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 4: in these lighter weight classes past the age of thirty, 73 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 4: coming back off of a knockout loss, there may be 74 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 4: the clients and athleticism and even fractional differences in speed 75 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 4: we talk about all the time in the wider weight 76 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 4: classes makes such a huge difference. So I lean to 77 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 4: Perez is the value side, just because he's not coming 78 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 4: off of knockout loss, is coming off of a loss 79 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 4: where he was extremely competitive, close to winning and fought 80 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 4: off fifteen minutes. Niko Lao coming off of the KL loss, 81 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 4: not a particularly high paced striker in general, which leads 82 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 4: to the rounds more so being close and competitive. So 83 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:16,360 Speaker 4: I see this one going longer. I like the over 84 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:18,160 Speaker 4: three and a half rounds at minus one, twenty five 85 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:20,480 Speaker 4: over four and a half at plus one fifteen that 86 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 4: goes to decision out about plus one thirty five to 87 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 4: plus one forty. Men's flylight fights go to decision about 88 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 4: fifty four percent of the time, So even taking away 89 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 4: twelve percent or so for the APEX, you're still getting 90 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 4: a projection about in line with where the market is 91 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:37,040 Speaker 4: currently about that plus one thirty five number. And then, 92 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:39,720 Speaker 4: as I said, Perez and Perez by decision would be 93 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 4: the way I would lean in terms of a side, 94 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 4: But I think I'm gonna stick with the totals on 95 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 4: this matchup. 96 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: Billy Ward's got his luck ratings up abbreviated version breaking 97 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:52,359 Speaker 1: down two fights Billy again, that might speak to the card, 98 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 1: but you do break down the Nicolau Perez fight two 99 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 1: top ten fighters here, you do see some value on 100 00:04:58,839 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 1: the Perez side. 101 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:02,360 Speaker 3: Is that the direction you're gonna go win for this week? 102 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm kind I've been kind of torn between two 103 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:06,839 Speaker 6: plays on this one. I like the Prez money line, 104 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 6: which I'll get to in a second. I think, as 105 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 6: it stands now, I'm gonna go with the Perez finish 106 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:14,839 Speaker 6: only market pretty much the same price, which implies that 107 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 6: both guys have roughly equal finishing equity here. I don't 108 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:20,240 Speaker 6: think that should be the case. Nikolau has some good 109 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 6: power on the feet, doesn't tend to finish the fight. 110 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:25,159 Speaker 6: He only has two stoppages and his seven UFC wins, 111 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:27,239 Speaker 6: where if you look at Perez, I believe he's finished 112 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 6: four out of six. 113 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 5: But and Sean brought it up. 114 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:33,240 Speaker 6: You know, Nikolau has some submission grappling upside, but he 115 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 6: doesn't really have a way to get this one to 116 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:38,480 Speaker 6: the ground. And I was really impressed by Perez's submission 117 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 6: defense against Mohamed Mokayev. Makayev has submitted almost everybody else 118 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:44,720 Speaker 6: he fought, and Perez held up really well in the 119 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 6: grappling changes. He got taken down. That's gonna happen against 120 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:49,919 Speaker 6: a guy like Makayev. And you look at all of 121 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:54,280 Speaker 6: his losses there, Pantoja, Figoredo, Joseph ben Vedidez back in 122 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 6: the day, those are all champions. Makayev arguably a future 123 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 6: champ at one twenty five young been really promising. This 124 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 6: is kind of a step down for him based on 125 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 6: the level of competition he's been fighting. I think he's 126 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 6: got more finishing upside here, and I honestly think the 127 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:12,040 Speaker 6: bigger or the likelier way it happens is through ground 128 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 6: and prown because Perez could, you know, land something one 129 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 6: or two on the feet, and with a guy like 130 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 6: Nikola who's gonna look for submissions off his back, that 131 00:06:18,880 --> 00:06:21,359 Speaker 6: sometimes leaves you vulnerable to being hit being finished on 132 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:23,720 Speaker 6: the ground. If this were a three round fight, I 133 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 6: wouldn't feel as great about that, But given that we 134 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 6: got five rounds to work with, I like that finish 135 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 6: only I wouldn't take pres inside the distance straight up, 136 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 6: because I'm actually with Shawan that there's a decent chance 137 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:35,719 Speaker 6: it goes to a decision. But on these finish only 138 00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:37,479 Speaker 6: markets you get your money back if it goes to 139 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 6: a decision, so it's kind of a. 140 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 5: Free roll, you know, if it goes that way. 141 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 6: I think Perez has the better finishing upside, lasting all 142 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:45,520 Speaker 6: three rounds with the grappling. The okay have kind of 143 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 6: cemented that for me, because if Mokaya doesn't submit you, 144 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:50,839 Speaker 6: I'm not super worried about Nikola. 145 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 4: One other thing I want to mention too, I don't 146 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 4: believe either guy's five round experience, at least Nikolau doesn't. 147 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 4: Perez might have a fight from earlier in wher where 148 00:06:57,360 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 4: he went five rounds. But you know, normally going into 149 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 4: he's made at least one of the fighters has pretty 150 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 4: sufficient five round experience, proven five round experience. That is 151 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 4: why I'm a little bit skeptical to take the over 152 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:09,119 Speaker 4: here or the ghost the decision, just because you don't 153 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 4: know what either of them are going to look like 154 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 4: in the fourth and fifth rounds, especially with Perez coming 155 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 4: in on short notice. I mean, He's cardio may completely 156 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 4: collapse down this stretch here. So a little bit skeptical 157 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 4: about taking the Perez money line or that goes to 158 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 4: the decision here in the five round fight. But I 159 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 4: do think Perez and the over probably the value sides. 160 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 3: Good stuff. 161 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: Let's move on to the fight of the night targeted 162 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 1: by Zarillo and Billy the women's flyweight. We have Karini 163 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 1: Silva taken on Ariani Lipski. Silva is the favorite in 164 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 1: this fight. See what the current price is minus one 165 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: sixty and Lipski the underdog around plus one thirty five. 166 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 3: Sean, when you break. 167 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 1: Down this one, is there more confidence in a side 168 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 1: here or is there another angle to take on betting 169 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 1: the fight? 170 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 4: So a pretty similar feel to the main event in 171 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 4: terms of like, have a lot of thoughts on this fight, 172 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 4: but I'm not so sure if I'm going to bet 173 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 4: at or if I'm going to bet it big. But 174 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 4: if I do, I probably prefer the ghost to decision 175 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,120 Speaker 4: to the underdog. And that's again like the main event. 176 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 4: I lean to both the over and the underdog in 177 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 4: this fight. But Karine Silva is a fighter I keep 178 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 4: seeing people fade. I've bet against her a couple of times. 179 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 4: She just looks like a different fighter physically than she 180 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 4: did in her regional days. And we could talk a 181 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 4: lot about the Postysada era of the UFC and what 182 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 4: have you, but she just looks like a different athlete, 183 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,800 Speaker 4: and a much better athlete, much stronger, much more filled out, 184 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:37,559 Speaker 4: and also showing better cardio later in her fights than 185 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 4: she did earlier in her career. This is a fighter 186 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 4: I used to look to try to bet against lab 187 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 4: after round one because she has good first rounds and 188 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:45,719 Speaker 4: then her effectiveness tends to drop off. She seems to 189 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 4: be able to maintain that now, so I lean towards 190 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 4: Lipsky basically just based on pass optics and you know passways. 191 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 4: I probably would have bet their respective careers. I do 192 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 4: think Lipski is constantly underrated. She's a very violent fighter. 193 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,319 Speaker 4: That said, this is still woman's filight. Woman's filight fights 194 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 4: go to a decision over sixty percent of the time. Again, 195 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 4: you take off twelve percent fifteen percent adjusting for the 196 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 4: apex cage versus a full sized octagon, you're still getting 197 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 4: this fight closer to forty five to fifty percent to 198 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 4: go to a decision, so roughly plus one twenty two 199 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 4: or so implied, and you can get as high as 200 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 4: plus one seventy or here on the fight to reach 201 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 4: a decision and go off fifteen minutes, so probably betting 202 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 4: the GTD here. I expect this to be closer and 203 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:31,320 Speaker 4: more competitive than the money line suggests. I think it'll 204 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 4: be a true coin flip fight, and they both have 205 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:37,839 Speaker 4: you know, finishing upside certainly. I just think it ends 206 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:40,319 Speaker 4: up playing out competitive enough that it goes to the 207 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 4: scorecard so GTD for me in Liftski Silva, and that 208 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:47,319 Speaker 4: will probably not be the most fun swat so. 209 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 1: Billy opposite side here, in terms of your breakdown of 210 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:53,199 Speaker 1: the main event, you see Silva being slightly undervalued. 211 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:56,840 Speaker 6: Why well, partially that was because she was minus one 212 00:09:56,920 --> 00:09:58,679 Speaker 6: forty five or something when I wrote that, and it's 213 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 6: now minus one sixty. 214 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 5: I still like the silver side. 215 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 6: I think Sean makes a good point though, that if 216 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:08,400 Speaker 6: this one's gonna go along, it probably favors Lipsky, and 217 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 6: if it's a short fight with a finish, it probably 218 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:12,920 Speaker 6: favors Silva. So if you don't want to pay the juice, 219 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:15,520 Speaker 6: I kind of like Silva inside the distance. She's never 220 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 6: won a decision in her career. She's had twenty one 221 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:21,319 Speaker 6: pro fights finished every one of her wins, so that, 222 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:23,439 Speaker 6: you know, kind of paints a picture here. I don't 223 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 6: think she has any like high level submission grappling experience, 224 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 6: but if you watch her fight, she really reminds me 225 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 6: of someone who does. She's selling out for submissions early. 226 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 6: So far, she's gotten them in all of her fights, 227 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:36,720 Speaker 6: including one that she got a knockdown to get her there. 228 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:39,680 Speaker 6: I do worry about what happens if she doesn't get 229 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 6: that submission, because you're kind of losing rounds off your back, 230 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:44,320 Speaker 6: you're giving up position to get there, probably you know, 231 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 6: tiring yourself out as well. So I worry a little 232 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:49,679 Speaker 6: bit about it. I think Shawn's play. If you're gonna 233 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 6: do that, I mean, maybe you correlate it. You take 234 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 6: the over and Lipsky make you know, a parlay out 235 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:57,679 Speaker 6: of that. I do, I just don't see it happening. Though, 236 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:00,200 Speaker 6: I'm not that impressed by Lipski her last one over 237 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:02,719 Speaker 6: Casey O'Neil. Casey O'Neil didn't really look right coming off 238 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:05,840 Speaker 6: an injury. I'm kind of sort of willing to discount 239 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 6: that her win before that split decision doesn't really have 240 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 6: like a signature win over a decent UFC level fighter 241 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 6: on her record. Every time she's fought tougher competition doesn't 242 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 6: go as well for her. Again with the Casey O'Neil 243 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 6: possible exception, but that there's some reasons behind that. So 244 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:25,200 Speaker 6: still like the creany silver side, I think you can 245 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 6: probably go inside the distance rather than pay the jews. 246 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 6: Only other thing I wanted to point out her she 247 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 6: has looked like a better athlete. Part of me wonders, 248 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 6: if you know, you get to the UFC, you make 249 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 6: a big enough paycheck, you can do this as a 250 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:39,679 Speaker 6: full time job. You're not also like a cashier at 251 00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 6: a convenience store. Somewhere, and she won a Performance of 252 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 6: the Night bonus in her UFC debut, so fifty grand 253 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:48,160 Speaker 6: check plus a UFC check. You know, if she still 254 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 6: lives in Brazil, cost of living there that can take 255 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 6: you a long way. I think that's probably the likelier 256 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 6: explanation here, but you know it is Postusada, so we 257 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:56,680 Speaker 6: got to consider that as well. 258 00:11:57,360 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 5: Yeah. 259 00:11:57,559 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 4: I mean, these fighters a lot of times, as you said, 260 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 4: working full time jobs and can't afford nutritionists or you know, 261 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 4: proper everything that they need, right, that's proper sports science 262 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:09,960 Speaker 4: to make them professional athletes and optimize their bodies. So yeah, 263 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:11,960 Speaker 4: I think that that leads into it as well. You 264 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 4: see fighters all the time mentioning how they're better versions 265 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 4: of themselves because they no longer have to work a 266 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 4: side job and can focus on training full time. And 267 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 4: she seems to be improved significantly both physically in her 268 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:25,319 Speaker 4: skill set, and I could absolutely see her finishing Lipsky. 269 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 4: Lipsky seems to be a bit of a glass cannon 270 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 4: where she either finishes her opponents or or folds under 271 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 4: the pressure. 272 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 5: But I don't know. She looks like a bit of. 273 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 4: A new revert, a bit of a renewed version of 274 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:37,959 Speaker 4: herself as well. So this should be a banger, and 275 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:40,560 Speaker 4: it seems to be one of the internets or gambling 276 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:43,200 Speaker 4: Twitter's fights of the night, one of the most important 277 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 4: fights from a gambling perspective, based on the flag planting 278 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:48,319 Speaker 4: I see on either side of this matchup. 279 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:51,240 Speaker 6: Well, they both kind of do the thing, especially on 280 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 6: the ground, where they just kind of decide that this 281 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 6: fight's going to end soon one way or the other, 282 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:58,199 Speaker 6: and it might be me that wins and it might 283 00:12:58,240 --> 00:12:59,720 Speaker 6: be you, but like we're not going to be here 284 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 6: for a long time. It's kind of feel like how 285 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 6: they both treat the ground game. I just think Silva's 286 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:07,839 Speaker 6: submission game is much more developed there and she could 287 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:12,080 Speaker 6: absolutely submission her time submission attempt herself into trouble, which 288 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 6: we see And I was just saying that about Nicolau. 289 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 6: I could see a similar dynamic here, So yeah, I'm 290 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:19,839 Speaker 6: interested in that one. I do think a longer fight 291 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 6: definitely benefits Lipsky. 292 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 1: Though The Action Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM 293 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 1: use the bonus code action when signing up to get 294 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you 295 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:37,840 Speaker 1: bet just five dollars four new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 296 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 1: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, 297 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:44,679 Speaker 1: and Wyoming. Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one 298 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:48,199 Speaker 1: or older. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. 299 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:49,960 Speaker 3: How do we evaluate this card? 300 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:52,840 Speaker 1: Sean from an underdog perspective when you consider it's not 301 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 1: not as not as publicly saturated. 302 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:57,560 Speaker 3: Of a card that we saw a couple weeks ago. 303 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:00,920 Speaker 4: So there's a couple of bigger dogs that Billy and 304 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:04,080 Speaker 4: I circled here. But a lot of fights are sitting 305 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:06,440 Speaker 4: around like minus one fifty and plus one thirty. So 306 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:09,080 Speaker 4: not not true pickams, but you know close enough relative 307 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,960 Speaker 4: to how MMA fights are handicapped that there's not like, 308 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 4: you know a lot of dogs sitting like plus one 309 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 4: eighty or plus two hundred. It's it's either like the 310 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 4: plus one thirties or the you know, the plus three 311 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 4: hundreds are higher. 312 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 1: It's like there's it's like it's like baseball this week 313 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 1: for you, Yeah, a. 314 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 4: Little bit, a little bit more, the heavier favorites, and 315 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 4: you know the IF Baseball over the past week, we 316 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 4: had a number of pick them series, so it all. 317 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 3: Fluctuates the meeting on the match ups. 318 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 4: But yeah, Martic Van at plus two eighty for me 319 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:37,240 Speaker 4: is one that I had circled Billy to talk about 320 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 4: another one in a second. But this is just kind 321 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 4: of a system play in terms of how Billy and 322 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 4: I identify underdogs. This fight is lined it minus two 323 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 4: twenty to go to a decision. That's sixty nine percent implied. 324 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 4: The average woman straweight bout one hundred and fifteen pound 325 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 4: woman goes to decision at a sixty six percent rate. 326 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 4: So in the APEX, this is lined to go to 327 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 4: a decision more frequently than the average strawweight bout. Yet 328 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:00,400 Speaker 4: you have a fighter in Martic Man who's plus two 329 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 4: eighty to win on the money line here, and just 330 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 4: by nature of the fact that it's going to go 331 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 4: to a decision go off fifteen minutes going to see 332 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:09,800 Speaker 4: the judges, This could be difficult to score and you 333 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 4: want to have an underdog ticket if it's going to 334 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 4: see the judges. And I think this fight largely determines 335 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 4: or is determinative based upon who gets on top for longer. 336 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 4: I think both women are going to be trying to 337 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 4: get on top, get top position. I think SUSA does 338 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 4: a little bit more with top position than Man, but 339 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 4: I think Man is just as likely to get on 340 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 4: top beer. 341 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 3: She's a little bit smaller. 342 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 4: She's probably more of a natural adom weight or a 343 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 4: fighter who could get down to one oh five if 344 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 4: the UFC had one hundred and five pound division, whereas 345 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 4: her opponent is cutting down from one twenty five to 346 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 4: one to fifteen for the first time. She'll be at 347 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 4: a speed disadvantage, but should be a little stronger. So 348 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 4: I think that's a lot of the line being baked 349 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 4: in here is you know, the size differential between these 350 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 4: two women, but I think Man is the skill set 351 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 4: to make this close and competitive. The line for to 352 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:57,680 Speaker 4: go to decision obviously degrees. So taking the dog at 353 00:15:57,720 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 4: plus two eighty in a fight that is very likely 354 00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 4: to see the scorecards and hopefully we get a wonky 355 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 4: split decision. 356 00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 3: Billy Ward underdog for you. 357 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 6: Yeah, just to talk on the general concept for a second, 358 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 6: I like a lot more of the long underdogs relatives 359 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:15,040 Speaker 6: of their price better than like the plus one fifties 360 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 6: or so. 361 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:17,119 Speaker 5: Here. I think a lot of the close fights. 362 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:18,560 Speaker 6: You could lay the chalk on most of them and 363 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 6: probably come out significantly ahead here, but some of these 364 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 6: longer ones, it just feels like, oh, you need is 365 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:25,880 Speaker 6: one of these and it's gonna pay off the other 366 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:28,640 Speaker 6: ones that you don't get. I think Man is also 367 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 6: a very good litmus test for what we were just 368 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 6: talking about with can you get to the USC and 369 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 6: make yourself into an actual athlete now that you get 370 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 6: to train full time, because she did not look that 371 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 6: way in her debut or on the Contender series once 372 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 6: she got knocked out, and maybe you know, like she's 373 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 6: training at a smaller gym, but maybe you get a 374 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 6: little bit more money, you can bring in some training partners, 375 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 6: travel a little bit, like this will be a really 376 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:53,000 Speaker 6: good test of that. And neither woman has looked all 377 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 6: that great in the UFC, so co sign. 378 00:16:55,200 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 5: That one from Zillo says it's a low level fight. 379 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:05,360 Speaker 6: The other, you know, lopsided line and a women's fight 380 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:09,159 Speaker 6: between Petrovich and Naliang kind of similar deal here, like 381 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 6: Petrovich is a massive favorite, but she's oh and one 382 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 6: in the UFC and beating up a bunch of people 383 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 6: we've never heard of in regional promotions. 384 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 5: Kind of hard to justify that one. 385 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:20,160 Speaker 4: But the you know, the difference in that fight now, 386 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 4: I think it's very important that fight is heavily juice 387 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 4: to end inside the distance. And I almost think it's 388 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,240 Speaker 4: like naliingg and round one or Petrovich round two, round three, 389 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 4: and just looking at the pure line juice to end 390 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:33,040 Speaker 4: inside the distance the fight that we just talked about, right, 391 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 4: Silva and Arianni Lipski lower weight class, but juice to 392 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 4: end inside the distance. This is the one of the 393 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:41,520 Speaker 4: three that is heavily favored to go to a decision. 394 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:43,920 Speaker 4: So that's like kind of the immediate, you know, thing 395 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:46,879 Speaker 4: that stands out breaking down those three fights and comparing them. 396 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 6: Yeah, and to be clear, I didn't bat Naliyang and 397 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,119 Speaker 6: I don't think she's all that great either and probably 398 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:54,159 Speaker 6: doesn't win this one, but like you could certainly make 399 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:56,919 Speaker 6: a case for it the kind of long shot underdog 400 00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:00,880 Speaker 6: I'm looking at those Rani Yaya fighting Victor hen I've 401 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:04,400 Speaker 6: been not impressed by Victor Henry. I don't really understand 402 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:06,679 Speaker 6: see him as this massive of a favorite. And my 403 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:09,200 Speaker 6: first thought was like yeah, but yeah, yeah, is thirty 404 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 6: nine years old. Like I don't like betting these older guys, Victor, 405 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,920 Speaker 6: Henry's almost thirty seven. He'll be thirty seven next month. 406 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 6: It's not like there's a big, you know, age discrepancy here. 407 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:19,840 Speaker 6: But what really stood out for me is Henry has 408 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 6: been taken down and every one of his UFC fights. 409 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 6: And Ronnie ya Ya is a former ADCC world champion. 410 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,320 Speaker 6: Don't look up the year he won that world championship 411 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:30,200 Speaker 6: because it'll make you sad for this bet a little bit. 412 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:32,920 Speaker 6: It was quite some time ago, but he still has 413 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:34,960 Speaker 6: it in m right, Like you don't forget how submissions work. 414 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:37,640 Speaker 5: Over time, you're just a little bit less stronger quick 415 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 5: at him. You could take absolutely take a long shot. 416 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:43,360 Speaker 6: It'll probably be my prop squad pick on Yahya by 417 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:45,600 Speaker 6: submission because I think he kind of has to do it. 418 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:49,360 Speaker 6: Definitely a worst striker the way he grapples. He grapples 419 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:51,440 Speaker 6: like a jiu jitsu fighter, not an MMA fighter, where 420 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 6: if he doesn't get a submission, he's probably losing the round. 421 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:55,880 Speaker 6: So I'm gonna do a little sprinkle on that as well. 422 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:59,359 Speaker 6: But yeah, Henry's liable to get taken down, and Yahya 423 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,959 Speaker 6: is the guy who can applies on that both older. 424 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 6: You know, I don't see a huge athleticism disadvantage one 425 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 6: way or the other, so kind of ugly like Shawn's 426 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:08,679 Speaker 6: pick as well, I think, you know, you take a 427 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:11,720 Speaker 6: couple of these plus three hundred or so underdogs, you'll 428 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:13,399 Speaker 6: probably get one of them and feel okay about it. 429 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:16,480 Speaker 4: Yah Yah is also a pretty good wrestler for a 430 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 4: BJJ guy. Like not all of these jiu jitsu practitioners 431 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:22,640 Speaker 4: are particularly good wrestlers, and they don't have a way 432 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:24,199 Speaker 4: to get the fight to the ground. Yahya is a 433 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 4: good wrestler and also something else I noticed. When Henry 434 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 4: gets up, he tends to give his back and yah 435 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 4: y'all loves to lock in the body triangle and hold 436 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:33,639 Speaker 4: the back for the duration of the round. So all 437 00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:36,080 Speaker 4: he needs is he doesn't even need a submission, honestly, 438 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 4: he just needs a couple of back takes and just 439 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 4: to hold the position for extended time. And yeah, great 440 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 4: point on the age differential between the two. Should have 441 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 4: mentioned it for the main event as well. You know, 442 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 4: before I looked at the data, I thought Alex Perez 443 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,439 Speaker 4: was probably like thirty five and Nikola was like thirty 444 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 4: or twenty nine. Those guys are a year apart in 445 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 4: terms of age, Like Perez looks older, Nikolau looks like 446 00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 4: the faster, younger athlete, but there's really no big differential 447 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:04,600 Speaker 4: in age there between the two. So just another point 448 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 4: lending to the prez side of Nicolau coming off of 449 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 4: a knockout. They're pretty close in age like in their 450 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:13,160 Speaker 4: respective careers and on the timelines, you know, the age 451 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:15,159 Speaker 4: curve is pretty similar. And the same thing with they 452 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 4: Aaya and Henry. You know, Henry seems like the younger, 453 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 4: more athletic guy, but you know, age comes for us all, 454 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,480 Speaker 4: and that athleticism could drop off a cliff at any moment. 455 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:26,080 Speaker 4: I think the athleticisms has already gone for Ronnieyaya. I 456 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:28,119 Speaker 4: think it just comes down to his technique and you know, 457 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:30,199 Speaker 4: fight I Q at this point because he fights like 458 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:32,240 Speaker 4: a thirty nine year old man. But yeah, Henry not 459 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:32,720 Speaker 4: much younger. 460 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 5: They're real quick. 461 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,720 Speaker 6: On his point about the wrestling too, I think part 462 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 6: of it is back in the day, the way these 463 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,119 Speaker 6: grappling competitions were scored has changed a lot where you 464 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 6: can't just sit down and wait for the guy to 465 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 6: come into your guard. So a lot of the old 466 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:49,880 Speaker 6: school Nogi grapplers doing ADCC in two thousand and six 467 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,159 Speaker 6: when he won the last time, you kind of have 468 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 6: to be a little bit better wrestler. Then we're now 469 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 6: the meta in grappling competitions, and we saw it with 470 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,400 Speaker 6: like al Jamaine Sterling when he did that pro grappling match. 471 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,120 Speaker 6: You're allowed to just like sit down and complain about 472 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:04,920 Speaker 6: your opponent not engaging with you. For ADCC back then, 473 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 6: that would have been giving up points. He probably would 474 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 6: have lost the match at the whole thing. So some 475 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 6: of these older school guys at least at one point 476 00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:14,119 Speaker 6: had the wrestling ability. Whether the athletic ability allows that 477 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,880 Speaker 6: to still work is one thing, But Henry's gonna give 478 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 6: opportunities to be taken down at the very least. 479 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 3: Sean, where do we see value this week in the 480 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 3: prop market? 481 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,000 Speaker 4: David o'nama inside the distance of plus two twenty five. 482 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,199 Speaker 4: I was gonna play his knockout prop at plus three hundred, 483 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 4: but I think he can actually get a guillotine here. 484 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:33,480 Speaker 4: He's going to probably land very hard on Jonathan Pierce 485 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 4: at points. Jsp's very hittable and tends to do the 486 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,880 Speaker 4: Chicken dance like once per fight when he does get 487 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 4: hit clean. But he's very good at pushing a pace 488 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 4: wrestling and also when he gets hit clean, he's going 489 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 4: to reactively wrestle and try to shoot reactive takedowns to 490 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:53,960 Speaker 4: try to break up that pressure. And when he does shoot, 491 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 4: I think he will leave his neck out and potentially 492 00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 4: get giekating by Onoma, or he could just leave his 493 00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 4: neck out at any point because he tends to so 494 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 4: when he's wrestling and get kiotened. But beyond that, I 495 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 4: think Onama can absolutely spark him in this fight. So 496 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 4: knock out a plus three hundred pretty interesting to me. 497 00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 4: Prefer the NCIDI the distance at plus two twenty five 498 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:13,680 Speaker 4: and then just to you know, jump ahead of the 499 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,040 Speaker 4: profitability is going to give out here. The Ryan Span 500 00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 4: fight the comine event on the card with Bogden Guskov. 501 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 4: This fight is going to be a car crash most likely. 502 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 4: Eighteen of twenty one wins for Spanning his career been 503 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,800 Speaker 4: inside of seven minutes. For Bogden Guskov, ten of his 504 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:31,119 Speaker 4: last twelve fights have ended inside a round, one span 505 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 4: under one and a half. Same game parlay as minus 506 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,159 Speaker 4: one ten. I think that's a pretty good price the 507 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 4: winning rounds one to round two minus one fifty. But 508 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,040 Speaker 4: the minus one ten on the inside the distance, you know, 509 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 4: not a huge discount compared to his money line, like 510 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 4: minus one seventy five minus one eighty versus minus one ten. 511 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 4: But literally eighteen of his twenty one wins have been 512 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 4: inside of seven minutes, and only one finish beyond that point. 513 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 4: So if Span wins, it's likely quickly. If Gooslav loses, 514 00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,080 Speaker 4: it's likely quickly. I even like Span round one, sub 515 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 4: I think that's how it gets done. Ultimately, you should 516 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,119 Speaker 4: have a big wrappling upset here, Billy going with a 517 00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:06,960 Speaker 4: juicier way to play that fight, but I think that's 518 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:08,160 Speaker 4: the most likely outcome. 519 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,600 Speaker 3: Billy, did you ever utilize the chicken dance in the ring? 520 00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,879 Speaker 6: Not intentionally? That usually means something has gone horribly awry. 521 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 6: Is usually why that happens. So I'm sure sure there's 522 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 6: a clip out there somewhere that Internet Salus could dig 523 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:25,680 Speaker 6: up of me being less than conscious. But you know, okay, 524 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 6: Brandon recover here, No, I just. 525 00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 3: I couldn't help it. Ask what do you got for 526 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 3: a prop this week, Billy. 527 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:34,959 Speaker 6: Yeah, so so my counterpoint to Zarello here, And keep 528 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:36,600 Speaker 6: in mind that I'm giving out like a ten to 529 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,439 Speaker 6: one prop here, So don't come at me when this 530 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 6: goes horribly wrong. Like I know, but Sean, what if 531 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 6: they don't finish each other right away? What if they 532 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 6: don't because these are big, strong guys swinging for the fences, 533 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,480 Speaker 6: you know, trying all kinds of crazy stuff. You're right, 534 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 6: they usually finish each other early, but then sometimes they don't, 535 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 6: and then there is nothing left in the gas tank. 536 00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:58,040 Speaker 6: I just don't think we should be getting ten to 537 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 6: one on a three round fight to go to the decision. 538 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 6: And like almost ever I think there was. It was 539 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,359 Speaker 6: like Derek Lewis a couple fights ago, where it was 540 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 6: the same thing where Everend's like, oh, no way, this 541 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:08,879 Speaker 6: one goes to the judges, and of course that's the 542 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:12,000 Speaker 6: one where he does. On a slightly more serious note, 543 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:14,639 Speaker 6: I do think Ryan Span has hit the point in 544 00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:16,639 Speaker 6: his career where he's realized that just trying to win 545 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,880 Speaker 6: performance bonuses isn't the way to go, and he needs 546 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:21,879 Speaker 6: to like try to win fights and win some minutes. 547 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,359 Speaker 6: And you saw it in his last fight against Anthony Smith, 548 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,920 Speaker 6: lost a fairly close split decision, kind of just trying 549 00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 6: to use his length and outpoint him and beat him 550 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,399 Speaker 6: in the striking without taking too many risks, which is 551 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,800 Speaker 6: totally different than how Ryan Span used to fight. Sometimes 552 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:37,520 Speaker 6: I wonder if you know that contract gets to the 553 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:39,439 Speaker 6: point where the win bonus is worth more than the 554 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:42,000 Speaker 6: fight of the night bonus, or there's other issues there. 555 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:44,760 Speaker 5: We're reaching a little bit on that. We don't know 556 00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 5: that that's the case. Obviously. 557 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,440 Speaker 6: I'm not in contact with Ryan Span about his game plan, 558 00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,159 Speaker 6: but it tend to one odds guys like there's a 559 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 6: better than ten percent chance that he tries to just 560 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:54,680 Speaker 6: pick up a win. 561 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:54,960 Speaker 5: Here. 562 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:57,680 Speaker 6: He just lost a decision to Anthony Smith. Now he's 563 00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 6: fighting who's becky? Anthony Smith? Bogged in looks just like 564 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:03,919 Speaker 6: a slightly younger and less beat up Anthony Smith without 565 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 6: the tattoos. 566 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:05,720 Speaker 5: It is hilarious. 567 00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 6: But that one went to a decision and no one 568 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,879 Speaker 6: thought it was going to a decision. Shawn's play is 569 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 6: obviously like the far likelier, better thought out I just 570 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:15,920 Speaker 6: think it's better than ten to one that he takes 571 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,920 Speaker 6: the safe route, should be more skilled. I'm not super 572 00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:22,119 Speaker 6: impressed by a blog Dawn knocking out Zach Pauga, another 573 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,439 Speaker 6: guy off a recent series of The Ultimate Fighter that 574 00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,119 Speaker 6: was just terrible. So you know you got more skill. 575 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 6: You're fighting a guy who's got some power. Maybe you 576 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,760 Speaker 6: play it safe, ride this one out. Take the decision 577 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,680 Speaker 6: and it tend to one. It's worth a sprinkle, all right, 578 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:36,320 Speaker 6: very good. 579 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:38,880 Speaker 1: So a little back and forth on the same fight, 580 00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 1: Ryan Span decision ten to one for Billy his prop play. 581 00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 3: Hopefully the prop doesn't do the chicken dance and it delivers. 582 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:47,440 Speaker 3: All right. 583 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:51,960 Speaker 1: Let's wrap with best bets, final bets for this kind 584 00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:53,679 Speaker 1: of card, Sean, what do you have? 585 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, best bet is the one bet on this card. Like, 586 00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,960 Speaker 4: I actually like Dante Mays and Kyle Machada to go 587 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,800 Speaker 4: to a decision at minus one forty. There should be 588 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:05,159 Speaker 4: a lot of cage pushing in this fight. This is 589 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:11,000 Speaker 4: the heavyweight matchup. Machado is pretty durable and he throws 590 00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,000 Speaker 4: a lot of volume, but he doesn't seem to have 591 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:17,560 Speaker 4: particularly big power, and the way to beat Dontel Mays 592 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,200 Speaker 4: comfortably is to outgrapple him. 593 00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:20,520 Speaker 3: But he has the grappling. 594 00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:22,679 Speaker 4: Upside in this fight, and I think He's likely to 595 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 4: be trying to land takedowns or cage pushing. He's been 596 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,480 Speaker 4: training with John Jones, so I think he's rounded out 597 00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 4: his game a little bit better. It would become a 598 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:34,879 Speaker 4: better overall fighter, But you just can't generally trust Downtail Mays. 599 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:35,440 Speaker 5: From a fight. 600 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:39,119 Speaker 4: I que perspective to pursue his likeliest path of victory, 601 00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 4: and I do think ultimately he's going to end up 602 00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,400 Speaker 4: staring at Kyo a little bit too much on the feet, 603 00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:46,320 Speaker 4: and Kyo is going to throw a little bit more 604 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,320 Speaker 4: volume and probably edge out a decision. So I considered 605 00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,560 Speaker 4: betting Dontael Mays here at even money, but that's basically 606 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,359 Speaker 4: where I projected it. I make this a fifty to 607 00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:57,359 Speaker 4: fifty fight. I just projected closer to about minus one 608 00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,560 Speaker 4: eighty five minus one ninety to go all fifty teen minutes. 609 00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:02,480 Speaker 4: So maybe I'll take a shot on Maze by decision, 610 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:04,920 Speaker 4: but I'd just like this fight to reach a decision 611 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,679 Speaker 4: at minus one forty, probably get a close and competitive split. 612 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,080 Speaker 4: That is Dontell May's fault that he didn't do a 613 00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:12,240 Speaker 4: little more and get the victory. 614 00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:14,400 Speaker 3: But yeah, fight to reach a. 615 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,400 Speaker 4: Decision between Mays and Machado, and then you know Billy's 616 00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,200 Speaker 4: going to talk about fig Lac in a second. 617 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,120 Speaker 3: I just have other ways of playing the fight. 618 00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,679 Speaker 4: I just like later iterations Pig Black, round three, your 619 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 4: decision fig Lac in over one and a half. But 620 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,000 Speaker 4: Billy's going to tell you why he likes fig loc 621 00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,840 Speaker 4: to get his first UFC win and bounce back from 622 00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:34,119 Speaker 4: a subpar debut. 623 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:35,920 Speaker 6: I don't know if you guys remember a couple of 624 00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:37,719 Speaker 6: weeks ago. I think Sean and I went against each 625 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:39,320 Speaker 6: other on both of these. And I'm not bringing this 626 00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,520 Speaker 6: up to brag here, but I faded two fighters off 627 00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:45,639 Speaker 6: the last season of The Ultimate Fighter, slight favorites against 628 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,560 Speaker 6: both their opponents. Both those opponents won. Those were the 629 00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:50,840 Speaker 6: guys who like won the last series of The Ultimate 630 00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,720 Speaker 6: Fighter and actually look decent. This is a guy who 631 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:56,400 Speaker 6: won a split decision and Austin Hubbard, I should say, 632 00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 6: Austin Hubbard won a split decision in the house to 633 00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,360 Speaker 6: make it to the final where he got choked out 634 00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:04,200 Speaker 6: by Kurt Hollibah in the second round. And Hallibah has 635 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,200 Speaker 6: not been great since then either. He just lost a fight. 636 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,800 Speaker 6: So this is really just the system play of I 637 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,359 Speaker 6: am fading these guys off the recent series of The 638 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,520 Speaker 6: Ultimate Fighter at reasonable prices as long as they will 639 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:16,960 Speaker 6: allow me. 640 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:17,320 Speaker 5: To do so. 641 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,800 Speaker 6: Fig Lac coming in off a lost to Pharise, I 642 00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,840 Speaker 6: think the ALM's really good, Like, I don't downgrade him 643 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,280 Speaker 6: too much from that, and he fought tough competition in 644 00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,199 Speaker 6: Cage Warriors before that, so it's not like he was 645 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,760 Speaker 6: coming in from nowhere. But again, this is the guy 646 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:32,600 Speaker 6: the UFC went out and intentionally signed based off his 647 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:37,160 Speaker 6: regional record, whereas Hubbard is a guy they said, oh man, 648 00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,040 Speaker 6: we need thirty two or however many warm bodies to. 649 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,760 Speaker 5: Fill out a series of this reality show. I guess 650 00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:43,480 Speaker 5: this guy will do. 651 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,400 Speaker 6: And then he knuck into the finals with a split 652 00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 6: decision and got choked out by the eventual winner. So 653 00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,080 Speaker 6: just looking at like, for lack of a better term, here, 654 00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:54,280 Speaker 6: pedigree between these two guys and how we got to 655 00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:54,760 Speaker 6: this moment. 656 00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,200 Speaker 5: I think fig Lac is a solid favorite. Wish I 657 00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:57,720 Speaker 5: would have bet. 658 00:28:57,680 --> 00:28:59,760 Speaker 6: Him at minus one fifty or so earlier in the week. 659 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:03,520 Speaker 6: Totally fine with minus one seventy five. All these guys 660 00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:05,640 Speaker 6: off the recent season The Ultimate Fighter aren't going to 661 00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:07,320 Speaker 6: be with us in the promotion for too long. 662 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,120 Speaker 3: All right, chents good stuff. We've pulled through. 663 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,280 Speaker 1: That's going to do it for our UFC Vegas ninety 664 00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:18,800 Speaker 1: one betting preview here on the Action Network podcast, ESPN's 665 00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:22,600 Speaker 1: carrying the main card. E two has the prelims, and 666 00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:26,200 Speaker 1: of course ESPN Plus if you are a subscriber there. 667 00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,640 Speaker 3: For Billy Ward Shan Zarello. 668 00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:30,960 Speaker 1: Find these guys also in the app if they add 669 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:34,560 Speaker 1: anything else to their cards for this weekend. As it 670 00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:38,160 Speaker 1: pertains to UFC also follow their baseball content. Billy's got 671 00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 1: the Nerfy yur Fee write ups, and Zarella of course 672 00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:42,880 Speaker 1: is plugging away with baseball here. 673 00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,400 Speaker 3: As we enter the month of May, be. 674 00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 1: Sure to download the free, award winning Action Network app 675 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:51,600 Speaker 1: to find everything there, as well as checking things out 676 00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,400 Speaker 1: on the Action Network website. Actionnetwork dot com slash MMA 677 00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:57,800 Speaker 1: good spot for full breakdowns from the rest of the 678 00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:01,680 Speaker 1: UFC staff to balk this weekend, everybody, and we'll see 679 00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,080 Speaker 1: you next time you're in The Action Network podcast, presented 680 00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:05,520 Speaker 1: by Bettenga. 681 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:16,320 Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 682 00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:18,520 Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem. 683 00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:21,400 Speaker 2: Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 684 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:22,280 Speaker 2: hundred gambler