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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action all.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go from the test throwing.

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Speaker 2: In so speak, we're saying it's a cash touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right.

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Speaker 3: This is the ultimate combine if you want to be

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Speaker 3: and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am Evan Abrams,

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Speaker 2: and I am joined by NFL betting expert and funitures

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Speaker 2: analyst Brandon Anderson. First of all, Brandon, what's going on?

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Speaker 2: Nice to see you again. How are you good to

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Speaker 2: see you? We're back after the weekend for the folks listening.

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Speaker 2: We're back after only a few hours. We just dropped

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Speaker 2: the Offensive Rankings podcast earlier today. Now we're all going

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Speaker 2: to defense, so glad to go back to back here

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Speaker 2: and wrap up our rankings week. Yeah, we're gonna mention

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Speaker 2: the offensive one a few times during this pod, So

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Speaker 2: if you have any reference, want to go check it out,

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Speaker 2: definitely go listen. But I think it's interesting at the

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Speaker 2: end to talk about maybe your composite rankings together, look

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Speaker 2: at some averages, things of that nature. But to round

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Speaker 2: out all of our rankings podcasts here at Action Network.

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Speaker 2: Brandon's gonna go bring us the defense now. So Brandon

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Speaker 2: explain to the listeners a little bit on how you

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Speaker 2: compile these rankings. You know, both offensively and defensively, there

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Speaker 2: are some differences, So talk to us about d.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So, offense we obviously kind of did in parts.

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Speaker 3: We did quarterbacks, we did the skill positions, offensive lines,

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Speaker 3: We got into it with coaching. Defense is just kind

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Speaker 3: of brand new today. We talked about a little bit

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Speaker 3: with coaching, but otherwise, you know, we could have done

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Speaker 3: defensive lines and linebackers and secondaries maybe another time. It's

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Speaker 3: kind of all factored in here together, but it is

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Speaker 3: a similar process. I am ranking each of those positions individually,

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Speaker 3: compositing things together, amplifying with the coordinator, all the stuff

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Speaker 3: that we've talked about along the way. Some key things

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Speaker 3: with defense. Defense tends to be reactive, right. The offense

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Speaker 3: is on the attack, the defense has to react. Except

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Speaker 3: more and more in today's NFL, the great defenses are proactive.

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Speaker 3: They're attacking, They're coming at you and making you react

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Speaker 3: a little bit to them. The offense. We've seen that

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Speaker 3: with Baltimore. We've seen that with Seattle, these Mike McDonald

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Speaker 3: type defenses. We've seen that Cleveland a couple of years

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Speaker 3: ago is really attacking and nasty. And a few years ago,

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Speaker 3: maybe a decade ago, we get these sort of the tweeeners, right,

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Speaker 3: the positionless guy as well, is he an edge or

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Speaker 3: is he a safety or kind of a linebacker? And

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Speaker 3: those guys would fall down the draft boards. Well, now

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Speaker 3: those same dudes are weapons right now, We're unleashing them. Now.

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Speaker 3: They make my defense flexible. Those are kind of the

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Speaker 3: skill players of the defense, right. So I think defense

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Speaker 3: is getting more exciting and a little more proactive, especially

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Speaker 3: as we get some really interesting defensive minds in here.

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Speaker 3: A lot of schematic stuff. Defense is tough to predict,

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Speaker 3: So I'm looking a lot at defensive codinators, leaning a

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Speaker 3: lot on the coaching research that we did. Offense, we

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Speaker 3: had obviously quarterback very heavily weighted compared to the other positions.

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Speaker 3: Defense is a lot more evenly weighted. I do prefer

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Speaker 3: the pass game that's important today's today's league, So corners

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Speaker 3: and edge they're gonna be higher off ball. Linebacker is

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Speaker 3: going to be the least, but much closer together. And

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Speaker 3: that also means defense is a lot harder to predict. Well,

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Speaker 3: why because we kind of know who the quarterbacks are,

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Speaker 3: right If you have Mahomes or Burrow or alan Omar Jackson,

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Speaker 3: they're gonna be good and your offense is gonna be good.

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Speaker 3: There's no quarterback on the defense. I don't mean like

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Speaker 3: the play caller. I mean there's no one dude that's

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Speaker 3: that good, that dominant look last year Micah Parsons, Sorry, yeah,

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Speaker 3: Miles Garrett, Micah Parsons, guys who are clearly among the

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Speaker 3: individual defenders in the league, not great defenses necessarily around them.

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Speaker 3: One guy can't quite impact as much like a quarterback would.

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Speaker 3: So all that is to say, it's kind of a

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Speaker 3: fool's eron to rank the defense is one to thirty

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Speaker 3: two because there's so much chaos and unknown here and

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Speaker 3: it's a lot less certainty. But we're gonna do it anyway,

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Speaker 3: so we do. Like with offense, think of these less

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Speaker 3: as defined rankings and more as if I have you

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Speaker 3: near the top, that's me saying I'm more confident you're

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Speaker 3: gonna be near the top if i've you near the bottom.

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Speaker 3: Same thing if we're in the middle. We're kind of

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Speaker 3: trying to sort it out, and you know, we're gonna

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Speaker 3: focus on our wins here. Last year we got the

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Speaker 3: Seahawks breakout defense in advance. The year before I was

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Speaker 3: in on the Browns and the Texans. There's been some

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Speaker 3: bad ones. We'll get to those as well. Everything in

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Speaker 3: tiers as always, so the groups together kind of comparing

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Speaker 3: to their peers, and that's it.

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Speaker 2: I kind of feel like on defense, injuries tend to

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Speaker 2: come pound on each other a little bit more than

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Speaker 2: on offense, where you know, maybe you have that like

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Speaker 2: a wide receiver corp, but it's mostly single player injuries.

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Speaker 2: So I tend to agree with and I think it's

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Speaker 2: becoming more interesting with these like abdual carters who can

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Speaker 2: play different spots on the line and having more of

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Speaker 2: those people where it becomes more difficult than the defense.

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Speaker 2: I mean, on the offense, you think of like what

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Speaker 2: Minnesota does and what Todd Bowles does in Tampa Bay,

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Speaker 2: like different things to just confuse people. So, all right, defenses,

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Speaker 2: Tier one, we were going to start with the Juggernaut.

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Speaker 2: Now this is a juggernaut potential. You've only got two

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Speaker 2: teams listed here, and the tea's is that your number

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Speaker 2: one defense was fourteenth in your rankings last year, So

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Speaker 2: heck of a jump go into it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So I got the Texans number one and the

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Speaker 3: Steelers number two here in our top two. So the Texans,

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Speaker 3: I think, are not a huge surprise in the rankings.

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Speaker 3: We're going to talk about this a bunch here at

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Speaker 3: the top. If you look around the rest of the league,

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Speaker 3: you listen to some other podcasts with some articles, there's

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Speaker 3: kind of a content is top six defenses that everyone

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Speaker 3: agrees are effectively the top six or at least like

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Speaker 3: in their top ten in some order. Houston is one

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Speaker 3: of those teams in that mix. I'm rocking the Houston

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Speaker 3: Texans shirt today. We were on Texans Island a couple

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Speaker 3: of years ago. This was a defense that Demiko Ryans

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Speaker 3: came in and immediately got results. Will Anderson as a

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Speaker 3: rookie Rookie of the Year paired up now with Daniel Hunter.

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Speaker 3: The defensive line there has been great Derek Stingley is

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Speaker 3: one of the best corners in the league, and they

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Speaker 3: got great play from Kamari Lassiter last year as a rookie.

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Speaker 3: Now they got Jalen Petre, the old safety. They moved

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Speaker 3: him to corner as well. CJ. Gardner Johnson's in that safety.

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Speaker 3: I think that's kind of a mean identity sort of

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Speaker 3: guy that Demiko wanted to go get to lead the defense.

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Speaker 3: They've been top three run defense each of the two

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Speaker 3: years Demiko has been there. They are I told you,

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Speaker 3: Edge and corner are my top rankings. Well, Houston's top

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Speaker 3: three Edge, top three Corner. So that's a pretty good

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Speaker 3: way to start out your defense. And Demiko is not

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Speaker 3: necessarily an attacking defense mode, defending on how you define it.

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Speaker 3: They're gonna not do a lot of crazy schematic stuff.

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Speaker 3: They're just gonna say, our guys are better than yours,

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Speaker 3: and we're gonna try harder, and we're gonna be better

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Speaker 3: than you. And we got Will Anderson, and we got

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Speaker 3: Derek Stingley, and we got guys who are gonna come

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Speaker 3: at you and hit you and you're gonna be sick

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Speaker 3: of it. So I think the Texans last year. I

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Speaker 3: was out on the Texans as a whole, and I

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Speaker 3: kind of pulled the whole ship down, and I was

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Speaker 3: right on the offense, but the defense was just as good.

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Speaker 3: I'm still a little skeptical on the offense, but the

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Speaker 3: defense has proven that they are that good. Last year.

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Speaker 3: They're actually even kind of bad in the red zone.

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Speaker 3: Red zone defense, like most defensive stats will talk about,

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Speaker 3: not super sticky. So actually they might have a chance

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Speaker 3: to be even better than last year. Maybe they get luckier

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Speaker 3: in the red zone. And I think that this is

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Speaker 3: a team with real juggernout potential and they're my number one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, high basement. I just think there's not much for

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Speaker 2: them to fall here. I've always thought about the division

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Speaker 2: as well. Division is usually pretty poor on offense, which

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Speaker 2: probably helps us out a tiny bit. It's supposed to

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Speaker 2: be a little bit better this year, so maybe that

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Speaker 2: shifts a tiny bit. I'll say this about houston nineteen

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Speaker 2: interceptions last year, second in the NFL. They led the

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Speaker 2: NFL and interception drops with thirteen, so that nineteen number

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Speaker 2: also could have been a lot higher. Again, not completely

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Speaker 2: sticky year to year, but that defense should be opportunistic

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Speaker 2: at minimum. So who's number two in your list?

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Speaker 3: Number two is the Steelers, and this one is should

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Speaker 3: be a surprise in some ways. I'm surprised it's a

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Speaker 3: surprise the Steelers. It's a steel Curtain. Like, we know

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Speaker 3: what the Steelers are their defense, but this is the

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Speaker 3: one team that's not in that group of six that

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Speaker 3: I talked about that are kind of everywhere else. In

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Speaker 3: all the rankings, I haven't seen the Steelers necessarily in

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Speaker 3: people's top tens. They are to me clearly with Houston

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Speaker 3: about even and well ahead of the rest of the league.

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Speaker 3: But it's a big bet on the secondary, and I

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Speaker 3: think it's a risky bet. I understand the Steelers went

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Speaker 3: out and about a month ago trader for Jalen Ramsey.

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Speaker 3: They also signed Darius Slay in the offseason. Well, investing

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Speaker 3: in older corners has not always gone well, and it's

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Speaker 3: not necessarily I was easy to know how to corners translate,

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Speaker 3: how to any defenders translate to a new scheme, to

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Speaker 3: a new different type of positional play. So I've been

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Speaker 3: low on Darius Slay. But now he gets to play

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Speaker 3: nickel and he gets to play in the slot. I

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Speaker 3: think that can suit his abilities a lot better. Jalen Ramsey,

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Speaker 3: the metrics still look pretty good for him over the years,

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Speaker 3: and this is the best edge rushing group in the league. TJ. A.

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Speaker 3: Watt still a star even at his advanced playing age.

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Speaker 3: Alex high Smith, I think it's lost a little bit,

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Speaker 3: but he's a top ten guy next to him Nick

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Speaker 3: Herbig is this like situational pass rusher that'd probably be

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Speaker 3: a star on another team. He's easily the best third

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Speaker 3: rusher on any team. And what's crazy is I just

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Speaker 3: said all those names. I think Cam Hayward might be

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Speaker 3: the best defender on the team right in the middle

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Speaker 3: of everything. So it's a ton of talent. It is

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Speaker 3: for me on talent alone taking the scheme out of

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Speaker 3: it number one, but nothing the scheme is bad. Mike Tomlin,

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Speaker 3: the results are pretty obvious for themselves. They've been a

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Speaker 3: top half of the league defensively. And I say top half,

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Speaker 3: I mean DVOA. Most things I'm talking about today will

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Speaker 3: be dvu in. Let's say otherwise, top half of the

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Speaker 3: league for the last decade, every single year on defense,

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Speaker 3: top fourteen and sixteen out of eighteen Tomlin years, So

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Speaker 3: basically every year you're guaranteed top half, top nine pass defense,

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Speaker 3: that's near top quarter of the league five of the

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Speaker 3: last six years, top seven to run defense five to

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Speaker 3: the last seven years. The floor is so high with

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Speaker 3: Tomlin and frankly with TJ. A. Lott and Cam Hayward

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Speaker 3: and all the guys you know they're getting here, and

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Speaker 3: I just don't see why we aren't talking about this

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Speaker 3: as one of the clear top defenses. Now, I kind

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Speaker 3: of I look back in my rankings, I seem a

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Speaker 3: little high on Pittsburgh year after year, which just the

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Speaker 3: way of my setup is maybe that's kind of an

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Speaker 3: error in Pittsburgh's favor. But one weird thing I noted

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Speaker 3: here Tomlin's floor is very high. They have this above

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Speaker 3: average defense. Weirdly, only eight or only seven times out

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Speaker 3: of those sixteen top fourteen finishes only seven times, so

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Speaker 3: less than half are the top eight. But when they

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Speaker 3: are top eight, five of those seven are top three also,

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Speaker 3: so there's a lot of numbers. Let me say a

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Speaker 3: different way. They're always better than average, they're rarely really good,

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Speaker 3: but when they're really good, they're awesome. And I think

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Speaker 3: this unit has a chance to be awesome this year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think it's hard to put Pittsburgh

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Speaker 2: any lower than this or higher, however you want to

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Speaker 2: look at it, like, I think top three is probably

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Speaker 2: where they should be. Just some simple stats here, like

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Speaker 2: last three years games where a defensive allows twenty points

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Speaker 2: or less, Pittsburgh leads a league. Like every one of

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Speaker 2: their games seems to be a great job by the

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Speaker 2: defense where they're looking for offense, and that has seemed

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Speaker 2: to be the issue since Big Ben's retired. It's really

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Speaker 2: just been them trying to figure it out on that

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Speaker 2: side of the ball. But their defense has come through.

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Speaker 2: I found this one great as well. Most interceptions on

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Speaker 2: their own half of the field, so basically when the

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Speaker 2: other team is driving on their side. Last two years,

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is nineteen. They lead the NFL. They're also opportunistic,

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Speaker 2: so you know, I think we have questions about the secondary,

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Speaker 2: but man, those linebackers with high Smith and even Queen,

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Speaker 2: and then you look at the pass rush even they

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Speaker 2: had Harman, Like, yeah, they're they're they're at least top

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Speaker 2: three in this area.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, it's hard to be upset about the

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Speaker 3: steel curtain.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Tier two now, so you've got four teams listed here,

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Speaker 2: and I think they all belong. I think the one

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Speaker 2: people might question is number six. But here let's just

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Speaker 2: start there, start at the top. Who's number three?

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm calling this tier attack attack and this

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Speaker 3: is all about the schemes again, and plenty of talent.

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Speaker 3: Three through six, three Minnesota Vikings for the Ravens, five

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Speaker 3: the Super Bowl champion Eagles, and then six the Seahawks.

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Speaker 3: And I agree, I think the Seahawks are the least

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Speaker 3: study of the group. That's why they're lowest in these rankings.

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Speaker 3: Let me start at number three. I know it's my Vikings,

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Speaker 3: that's the team I'm a fan of, and I have

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Speaker 3: to admit I actually do have a little bit of

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Speaker 3: skepticism here on the ranking. Brian Flor's defense is very,

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Speaker 3: very aggressive, as much as anyone usually something like a

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Speaker 3: thirty percent blitz rate that's about triple the league average.

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Speaker 3: That makes this defense very volatile from play to play,

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Speaker 3: even not just season to season and game to game.

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Speaker 3: It means Minnesota more than these other top defenses gives

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Speaker 3: up explosive plays. That's not great, but they're doing that

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Speaker 3: because they're hunting explosive plays. They're trying to sack you,

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Speaker 3: they're trying to force turnovers. And this year they've beefed

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Speaker 3: up with the defensive line. Here's where my skepticism comes in.

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Speaker 3: They went out and signed Javon Hargrave and John Allen,

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Speaker 3: and a lot of people are like, man, best defensive

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Speaker 3: line in the league. Now, harg Grave and Allen haven't

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Speaker 3: really done it for a couple of years. They can't

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Speaker 3: stay on the field and haven't been that great. And

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Speaker 3: they've been better pass rushing than run defense, which is

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Speaker 3: what Flores wants. But now you add that the Dallas Turner,

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Speaker 3: last year's rookie that wasn't really healthy much of the year,

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Speaker 3: and Grenard and Van Ginkl lots of pass rush. Is

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Speaker 3: the run defense gonna hold up? And how does that

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Speaker 3: whole mix stay together? It needs to be great because

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Speaker 3: the corners are not that great on this team. The

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Speaker 3: corners need to be protected by the pass rush. So

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Speaker 3: I don't know, you know, you know me, I'm like

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Speaker 3: a Minnesota sports nihilists sort of fan. I guess maybe

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Speaker 3: am I protecting myself emotionally with the heads here a

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Speaker 3: little bit? Perhaps? But I do think there's more variance.

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Speaker 3: The Vikings defense thing is gonna look awesome against bad teams,

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Speaker 3: but occasionally gonna give up some really big plays and

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Speaker 3: really big games, especially against those top quarterbacks. But you know,

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Speaker 3: so goes the NFL most times, top quarterbacks are gonna

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Speaker 3: carve you out.

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Speaker 2: It's just a plug and play with Minnesota's defenses. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's just the way they do with the blitz. Like

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Speaker 2: you know, talented players end up getting to the quarterback,

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Speaker 2: but they figure out different schemes and it makes it

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Speaker 2: really really difficult. But again, you're right, some quarterbacks really good.

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Speaker 2: Versus the blitz, they end up getting burned sometimes. But

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Speaker 2: I agree, Okuda Rogers, like I'm not in love, you know,

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Speaker 2: with their corners, you know, and especially the additions. But

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Speaker 2: it's Minnesota. You know, last three years they have the

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Speaker 2: most games with at least one turnover on defense. They

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Speaker 2: just their blitz causes trouble for opposing teams and it's

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Speaker 2: just gonna be that way. So I think you're probably

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Speaker 2: right to have them in this tier. I just don't

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Speaker 2: know enough necessarily if they're third, I think there's a

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Speaker 2: little high given the questions, but that that's my feeling

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Speaker 2: with Minnesota.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, honestly, Minnesota. The reason I have them

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Speaker 3: third is with offenses. Similarly, listen to that pot if

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Speaker 3: you haven't yet, But I kind of rank here's what's

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Speaker 3: the range of outcome and range of outcome is always

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Speaker 3: tough to rank, and in defenses, I have defenses sometimes

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Speaker 3: that are like range of outcome ten to thirty, Like,

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Speaker 3: how is that even helpful when it can be like

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Speaker 3: over half of the league. It's because defense is tough

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Speaker 3: to predict. Minnesota, like I have Houston and Pittsburgh so

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Speaker 3: clearly ahead of the rest of the pack, which is weird.

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Speaker 3: I don't normally have that defensive league because they're clustered together.

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Speaker 3: Minnesota is the only one of this group or anyone

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Speaker 3: beyond that has a range of outcomes that can hit

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Speaker 3: number one. They're the only one that could hit that

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Speaker 3: top group. So for me, that's why I had to

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Speaker 3: put them in there. For example, Baltimore and Philadelphia, the

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Speaker 3: next two have a range of three to ten, so

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Speaker 3: it's not much of a difference, but that three's you

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Speaker 3: can't get out of this tier. Minnesota, by my metrics,

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Speaker 3: can get out of the tier and jump a level.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if I necessarily agree that I'm trusting

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Speaker 3: the metrics here. I'm gonna go with the Eagles next here,

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Speaker 3: our Super Bowl champion, Vic Fangio, you gotta lead any

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Speaker 3: one of these teams in the tier you're leading with

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Speaker 3: the name of the defensive coordinator. Who's the guy calling

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Speaker 3: the shots here? And Fangio obviously called the shots and

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Speaker 3: did a great job last year. The Eagles are very

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Speaker 3: weird defensively. The last four years, we have two top

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Speaker 3: six defenses, two bottom eight defenses in between, and it's

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Speaker 3: been back and forth each year. So, okay, are we

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Speaker 3: due for bottom eight now? Well? Probably not. We're vacinating

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Speaker 3: a lot because we keep changing coaches. So we kept

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Speaker 3: Vic Fangio this year. I think Fangio is the floor. Right,

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Speaker 3: You're gonna have some stability here. There are some question

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Speaker 3: marks we saw last year. Zach Bond went from kind

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Speaker 3: of off a scrap heap to all pro linebacker. Okay, great,

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Speaker 3: do it again. Can you do it again? Because you

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Speaker 3: might be somewhere in between not an NFL player and

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Speaker 3: the best guy your position, right, So which version of

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Speaker 3: you are you between? And of course the corners had

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Speaker 3: been really falling off. Philly went out and invest in

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Speaker 3: the corners. They bring Cooper to Gene, they bringing Quinion Mitchell,

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Speaker 3: and overnight two rookie corners are top ten corners in

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Speaker 3: the league. Hey, that's great, do it again, because rookie

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Speaker 3: corners aren't supposed to be top ten, and we saw

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Speaker 3: the best of the best version of this team. But

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Speaker 3: where's the pass rush on the Eagles? Sweat is gone,

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Speaker 3: Milton Williams is gone. Those guys were huge in the

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl. Hassan Redick is gone, Brandon Graham is gone

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Speaker 3: from a couple of years ago. It's a lot of

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Speaker 3: pass rush that's missing. And PHILADELPHIAU she finds the answers,

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Speaker 3: but they're gonna have to find answers. So I do

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Speaker 3: think there are a few more questions than are kind

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Speaker 3: of giving them credit for. But Aaron Shottz posted the

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Speaker 3: last ten teams that finished number one DVAA on defense

362
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Speaker 3: the following year usually don't go number one again. But

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Speaker 3: they are top ten eight of the last ten years.

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Speaker 3: That's a pretty good floor to just know. Okay, I

365
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Speaker 3: got a top ten team. Median finish is fifth. Great,

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Speaker 3: it's exactly where I have the Eagles at fifth. I

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Speaker 3: don't think they're number one again, That's not how defense

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Speaker 3: usually works. It's hard to repeat. So I think they

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Speaker 3: should be very good tough defense.

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Speaker 2: I think the big key there is the departures you

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Speaker 2: mentioned and the pressure now being on Jordan Davis and

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Speaker 2: Jalen Carter more than it had been with in the past.

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Speaker 2: It's more they're great players. They're adding to what you

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Speaker 2: have now. I think you almost rely on them. I

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Speaker 2: think you have it right in the middle. You had

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Speaker 2: Philly as the fifteenth defense last year. You have them

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Speaker 2: at five this year. I think they get to like eighth,

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Speaker 2: So I think you're probably about there. But yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think you're also right to question it based off of,

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Speaker 2: let's call the depth they had last year, So keep rolling.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, let's do Baltimore and Seattle together because they're very

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Speaker 3: similar type of defense. That makes sense because Mike McDonald

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Speaker 3: builds the Baltimore defense this nasty, aggressive, in your face,

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Speaker 3: coming at you defense, and he does so well that

385
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Speaker 3: he gets hired away to coach Seattle and he leaps

386
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Speaker 3: their defense into the top mix of things, and Baltimore

387
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Speaker 3: just keeps doing what they've been doing under McDonald. So

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Speaker 3: here they are both similar style of defenses. Baltimore goes

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Speaker 3: out and bring in Jiro Alexander and Owuzier to add

390
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Speaker 3: depth to the corners, on top of Nate Wiggins, the

391
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Speaker 3: rookie last year, on top of Marlon Humphrey. This I

392
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Speaker 3: think is possibly the number one secondary in the league.

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Speaker 3: I didn't mention cal Hamilton, who is a top ten

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Speaker 3: probably at worst defensive player, a guy that in the

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Speaker 3: right year could even be like we never had a

396
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Speaker 3: safety defensive player of the year. People would love to

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Speaker 3: give Cayle Hamilton that award for a first time. And

398
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Speaker 3: crazy with Baltimore is they've been a top ten defense

399
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Speaker 3: eight of the last nine years by DVA And why

400
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Speaker 3: is that crazy? Was crazy because they keep changing coaches.

401
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:36,000
Speaker 3: It's not just like, oh, yeah, well we've just had

402
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Speaker 3: Fangio for nine years, so we're al was good, or

403
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:41,320
Speaker 3: like Tomlin has just had Tomlin's defense all these years.

404
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 3: Baltimore has had different coaches and completely different schemes along

405
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Speaker 3: the way, and they just keep finding ways. Even when

406
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:50,719
Speaker 3: the things start out slowly like it did last year

407
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Speaker 3: under Zach Orr new name, what's it going to be like?

408
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Speaker 3: They got there by the end of the year and

409
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Speaker 3: they were as good as anyone. And I think with

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Speaker 3: Baltimore too, a little bonus that oftense, this is gonna

411
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Speaker 3: be great. So if you're a head all game, you

412
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Speaker 3: can stay aggressive and stay on the attacking front foot

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Speaker 3: and there are different defenses where that will not be

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Speaker 3: the case with them. In the fact, I would say

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Speaker 3: Seattle might be closer to the other end of that spectrum.

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Speaker 3: I don't love that Seattle's defense might be putting some

417
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 3: bad positions when Sam Donald does the Sam Donald thing

418
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Speaker 3: sometimes behind the offensive line. Now they're pretty good over

419
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Speaker 3: the weekend, maybe the offense will be a little better

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Speaker 3: than we thought. Mike McDonald, that's really the vote here.

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Speaker 3: This was my breakout team last year. They ended up

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Speaker 3: finishing tenth, which was a lot higher than most people expected.

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Speaker 3: So I have them just bumping up another level. They

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Speaker 3: got a big season from Leonard Williams on the line

425
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Speaker 3: Byron Murphy. I think that's the strength of the team,

426
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Speaker 3: and I like Devin Witherspoon, so the attacking corner there.

427
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Speaker 3: Talent wise, I will admit I consider dropping Seattle one

428
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:54,199
Speaker 3: spot down in the tiers. Not in the rankings, but

429
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:56,680
Speaker 3: talent wise, they're like right on the edge. They don't

430
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 3: feel quite like they belong matching up with those top groups.

431
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 3: But the point of Mike McDonald and these great coordinators

432
00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 3: is you're elevating the talent and making the guys be

433
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,160
Speaker 3: a little better than we thought that they were, because

434
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 3: that's how defense tends to come out. So I'm sort

435
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 3: of in the middle here. I'm a little bit luke warm,

436
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:18,360
Speaker 3: just comparatively to my diehard love of Seattle last year.

437
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 3: I think I am on the island this year, but

438
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,160
Speaker 3: I haven't left either. I still am happy to keep

439
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,440
Speaker 3: my stocking his hold for this year with the Seahawks.

440
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Ravens and Seahawks is an interesting comparison

441
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,160
Speaker 2: because I feel like the Ravens are like two levels

442
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 2: ahead of the Seahawks, and I can see the vision.

443
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 2: I see where Seattle's trying to go, but like the

444
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:40,200
Speaker 2: names aren't there. Then you add Malachi Starks in Baltimore,

445
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 2: which I just love and can't wait to see him

446
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:46,360
Speaker 2: on that defense. I just think there's more options in Baltimore.

447
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 2: And it's also interesting to say, yes, you face Burrow,

448
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 2: but between Pittsburgh, which we all have our opinions on

449
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:55,400
Speaker 2: Rogers in Cleveland, Like I'd rather face that division from

450
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 2: like a passer point of view than Kyler Purdy and Stafford.

451
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,119
Speaker 2: I mean, Seattle got, yes, good defense, but you know,

452
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,119
Speaker 2: tough to go against those quarterbacks, you know, six times

453
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,119
Speaker 2: a year, So that would be my opinion. But I

454
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:11,159
Speaker 2: like I like seat. I think they probably finish a

455
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 2: few spots back of where you have them, but I

456
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 2: think they're on the way. Let's call it.

457
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, And again a good reminder that, like I know,

458
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 3: we're publishing these and calling these rankings, these are a

459
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 3: little bit less rankings as how likely are you to

460
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,480
Speaker 3: finish up near the top. So this is almost me

461
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 3: saying I think Seattle is the sixth most likely top

462
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:29,639
Speaker 3: ten team.

463
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 2: It's just, you know, hard to frame it.

464
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 3: That way, but that's kind of where we're at. Let's

465
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 3: go tier three, Let's get crazy, is what I'm calling

466
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 3: this group. And I talked about the top six group.

467
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 3: We haven't mentioned the Broncos yet. They're in this tier now.

468
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 3: But after this group of six, if you listen to

469
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 3: the podcast and read the content, people are all over

470
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 3: the place, Like you pick twenty different defenses and fill

471
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 3: in the back end of the top ten, and that's

472
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 3: where we're at. This is where some of my favorite

473
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 3: sleepers come in. So I've got number seven the Bears.

474
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 3: Number eight is where I've got the Bronco, nine, forty

475
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,960
Speaker 3: nine Ers, and ten Patriots. So let me start with

476
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 3: the Broncos here. They're a team that has been I've

477
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 3: seen them number one and a lot of defense rankings

478
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,040
Speaker 3: out there. Their team that people are very excited about.

479
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 3: They had a huge leap last year. They were number

480
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 3: thirty on defense. This is the team that gave up

481
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 3: seventy points to the Dolphins just two years ago, and

482
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 3: suddenly Vance Joseph has these guys playing with their hair

483
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,159
Speaker 3: on fire. Vance Joseph is another one of those guys

484
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 3: who plays so super aggressive and when it works, it

485
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 3: works really well. But when it doesn't go well for

486
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 3: Vance Joseph, historically, it can get pretty bad. In eight

487
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:41,360
Speaker 3: previous years, Vance Joseph's defense had never finished top ten

488
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 3: points per game. They only finished top ten in yards

489
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 3: per game once. Defensively, they're twentieth their worse in run

490
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 3: defense six of his eight seasons. Suddenly the number one

491
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 3: last year. Okay, I'm skeptical because Vance Joseph do the

492
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 3: thing again. His scheme is going to bring a ton

493
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 3: of pressure, which is a good to try to cover

494
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 3: for the lack of talent by just trying to confuse

495
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 3: lesser quarterbacks. Sometimes it means heavy manned a man and

496
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,880
Speaker 3: it makes you vulnerable because man demand can get beat

497
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 3: And last year Patrick's or ten wins Defensive Player of

498
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:18,239
Speaker 3: the Year. I think we remember how I feel about that.

499
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:21,160
Speaker 3: I wasn't a huge fan of that award. Was he

500
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 3: really this elite shutdown corner or were the other guys

501
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 3: Moss and some of the others there were they just

502
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 3: a little more beatable? And how about against top opponents?

503
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 3: Because last year this defense got to face seven backup

504
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 3: quarterbacks during the season. When they faced the top twelve

505
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,879
Speaker 3: DEVU offense, they were one and six on the season.

506
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,439
Speaker 3: And don't forget in those pretty metrics at the end

507
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 3: of the year. Those include the finale Week eighteen against

508
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 3: the Mighty Chiefs, No Carson Wentz's Chiefs and they won

509
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,439
Speaker 3: thirty eight nothing, And all those metrics are like super

510
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 3: boosting up Denver's rating for the year, even though it

511
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 3: was like a preseason game. Effectively, Denver tried in Kansas

512
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 3: City didn't. So I just have a lot of skepticism

513
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 3: built in here. Denver went out and added Dray Greenlaw

514
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 3: and Hufanga as safety. I'm skeptical that in a new

515
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 3: system and coming off of pretty big injuries, that they'll

516
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 3: be the big dditions. People seem to think two years

517
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:20,880
Speaker 3: ago the Browns made a huge leap into being this

518
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,640
Speaker 3: superstar awesome defense, and I had the number one last year.

519
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,880
Speaker 3: They remind me a lot of these Broncos, or maybe

520
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 3: vice versa. I think there's a lot more downside than

521
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 3: it seems with this team. Frankly, I think most likely

522
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,439
Speaker 3: they finish outside of the top ten. There's plenty of

523
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 3: talent here, and if it goes well, it could be

524
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 3: really good. But I think there's a longer tail down

525
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:45,200
Speaker 3: and I'm a little worried about the defense.

526
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're right about ten or eleventh would

527
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:50,919
Speaker 2: probably be where I see them finishing. I think the

528
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:54,439
Speaker 2: thing you nailed was the backup quarterbacks, and just like

529
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 2: the level of inexperience at least or lack of talent

530
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 2: facing on the other side of the ball, they had

531
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 2: one hundred and eighty three pressures on early downs, first

532
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 2: and second down on defense last year. That's not only

533
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 2: the most of the NFL last year, most of any

534
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 2: team last three seasons. So I think facing those quarterbacks

535
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 2: really did make it easier on a level for certain

536
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 2: defenders in certain positions. The other thing is and I

537
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 2: did a little bit of dating on this first and

538
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 2: EPA per play on defense. Usually those teams in first

539
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 2: really go down an average of eleven slots basically decreased

540
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 2: since twenty twenty for teams who finished in the top

541
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 2: and EPA per play, So I think they probably get

542
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,399
Speaker 2: to that ten eleven range. A lot to like, but

543
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 2: I think some things to question. But listen, you had

544
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 2: them thirtieth last year, they finished first in some areas,

545
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:42,360
Speaker 2: and now you have them in eighth, So I think

546
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 2: you're about right. All right, keep rolling?

547
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 3: Ah, yeah, Bears here at number seven. I guess I'm

548
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:49,399
Speaker 3: in on the Bears this season.

549
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:49,720
Speaker 1: Right.

550
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 3: We talked about Ben Johnson plenty, It's not just him.

551
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 3: Dennis Allen comes over. Dennis Allen had led a top

552
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 3: eight Saints defense six straight seasons before they fell off

553
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 3: a little last couple of years, still above league average.

554
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 3: They were top five run defense four of those years,

555
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 3: top twelve pass defense pretty much always. There's plenty of

556
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 3: talent in Chicago. Jalen Johnson is one of the better

557
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 3: corners in the league. They went out and got They

558
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,439
Speaker 3: got a lot of talent at linebacker and at defensive end,

559
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:19,879
Speaker 3: and I think now they get the right guy to

560
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 3: come in and lead the way. So I'm not in

561
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 3: love with the defense, but I think giving them a

562
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 3: just a good defensive coordinator in Dennis Allen puts them

563
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 3: into the Mikes as just a good above average defense.

564
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 3: San Francisco, it's again, give us a name, give us

565
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 3: Robert Sala, and we've seen what he's done in San Francisco.

566
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 3: He took what was the twenty fourth defense early with

567
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 3: his time there, jumped him the second and then seventh.

568
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 3: Then he goes to the Jets and he was terrible

569
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 3: as a head coach, but great as a defensive guy.

570
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 3: They were the worst defense in the league his first

571
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 3: year there. Then he got things going and suddenly they

572
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 3: jumped a six and then third the next two years,

573
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 3: and frankly, it's still pretty good last year until they

574
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 3: fired him, and then it cratered after that. So he's

575
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 3: been excellent, especially with the pass defense. Now Sam Frin's

576
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 3: roster leaves some serious holes. Safety I don't love, and

577
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 3: at defensive tackle in the interior maybe as bad as

578
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 3: anyone in the league. So maybe I might be like

579
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 3: a half year ahead on the Niners here with Sala.

580
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 3: Sometimes it takes a bit for him to kind of

581
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 3: find things and make it work. But Nick Bosa still awesome.

582
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 3: Fred Warner is still awesome. I love the defensive line

583
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 3: coach on this team, Chris Kokoric Sam Frayan is where

584
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 3: you send your failed defensive lineman to like find new

585
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 3: hope again. So Bryce Huff was one of the big

586
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 3: free agents last year, terrible year. Now he's in San

587
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 3: fran Could he be the pass rusher that they need.

588
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 3: Maybe it's Mikel Williams, the rookie that they drafted next

589
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 3: to Bosa. They need both and Warner healthy out there.

590
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 3: But I think there's a lot of potential with some

591
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 3: flaws that maybe Sala can help find a way there.

592
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 3: That's been a team I've been on since they signed

593
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 3: him back in February. And then last one in this group,

594
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 3: the Patriots. They sneak into my top ten. Not actually

595
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 3: a bet on defensive coordinator for once. This is a

596
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 3: bet on talent by talent alone, no scheme. This is

597
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 3: my number three talented defense. I'm actually skeptical. I don't

598
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 3: know a lot about Terrell Williams, the new defensive coordinator.

599
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 3: He's been really good with defensive Linemen. He's been part

600
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:25,239
Speaker 3: of developing Jeffrey Simmons, Domacon Sue, Aiden Hutchinson. He's been

601
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 3: pretty good. We'll see how he calls plays. The Patriots

602
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,479
Speaker 3: had been a top ten defense four or five years

603
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 3: before they absolutely plummeted last year to thirtieth. I was

604
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 3: ahead of the curb on that one. I was down

605
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 3: on the Patriots last year. Now they get back Christian Barmore,

606
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 3: who was not healthy last year. They added Milton Williams Philadelphia.

607
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 3: They added Carlton Davis, really good corner him and Christian Gonzalez.

608
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 3: I'm excited about. I think that's a top five cornerback duo.

609
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 3: That'splaine the linebacker, Landry off the edge. Just lots of

610
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 3: floor raising talent additions. If we can get a system

611
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 3: here and we know they're Mike Rabel, they're going to

612
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 3: focus on the defense and play hard. I the Patriots

613
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 3: might actually end up ranked a little too low here.

614
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 3: And could that be the reason, maybe even more than

615
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 3: Drake may a lot of Patriots hype. Could the defense

616
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 3: returning the glory a little bit be the reason the

617
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 3: Patriots hype pays off some All I really remember from.

618
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 2: This section was the sad thing that Robert Sell and

619
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 2: Dennis Allen are now coordinators and betters can't take advantage

620
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 2: of them anymore. And that was my one realization. And

621
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 2: then I would guess I would say for the Patriots,

622
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 2: I think you're probably right, but they also now get

623
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 2: to face Justin Fields twice a year, which should impact

624
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 2: their ratings on some level. All right, Tier four, you ready,

625
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 2: let's do it. Next four teams here. This is eleven, twelve, thirteen,

626
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 2: and fourteen. This is I think, again, as we kind

627
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 2: of talked with offense, these teams in this range, I

628
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 2: think they've got top ten potential because they are sitting

629
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 2: right outside. But I think there's also a chance one

630
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 2: or two of these teams, you know, get closer to twentieth.

631
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 2: So it's Bills at eleven, Giants at twelve, Chiefs at thirteen,

632
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 2: which is probably the most interesting, and then the Colts

633
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 2: at fourteen. So kind of start at it.

634
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just call this this should be good, won't

635
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 3: be great group, And I think they're just kind of

636
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 3: the right range for this group, just kind of fringe

637
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 3: top ten. Bills and Chiefs obviously are probably the more

638
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 3: interesting ones here, just because we know we're going to

639
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 3: be watching these defenses in January. The Bills Sean McDermott,

640
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 3: that's the floor. They've been a top twelve DEVA defense

641
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 3: seven years in a row. It's especially impressive you go

642
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 3: back and look at the injuries that they face. Somehow

643
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 3: year after year they lose all sorts of dudes. But

644
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 3: that's where I'm a little skeptical as well. They're leaning

645
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 3: a lot on will Matt Mallano ever be healthy again?

646
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 3: Will Joey Bosa, who that's their big signing, how healthy

647
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 3: can he be? And I'm a little skeptical too about

648
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 3: that kind of cover two style McDermott defense. Does that

649
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 3: hold up in the playoffs as a hold up against

650
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 3: the top quarterbacks? The kind of are right in the

651
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 3: edge of this ranger. Have them top twelve like they've

652
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 3: been Spagnolo with the Chiefs. There's less talent on this roster.

653
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 3: I think overall, we know the names because we watch

654
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 3: the Chiefs every week for the last seven year years.

655
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 3: But outside of Chris Jones, who's awesome, and Trent McDuffie,

656
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 3: who's really good, like the line and the second year

657
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 3: are leaning very heavily on those two guys really being

658
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 3: awesome and coming through, and there's not as much outstanding

659
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 3: talent outside of those guys, So that just worries me

660
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 3: a little bit. You know, the wrong injury could really

661
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 3: derail them. But Spags is gonna have the defense ready.

662
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 3: They tend to get better as the year goes on

663
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 3: and be ready in January. So that's where the rankings

664
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 3: come up a little shorter here. Giants and Colts just

665
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 3: defensive line. Defensive line talent. With the Colts, it's the

666
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 3: best tackle combo in the league to Forrest Buckner and

667
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 3: Grover Stewart. The Giants could end up having the best

668
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 3: defensive line in the league. Dexter Lawrence is going to

669
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 3: be one of those like Sexy Dexy defensive Player of

670
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 3: the Year sleeper picks out there, and you already mentioned

671
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 3: Abdul Carter at the top of the rookie plus Brian

672
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 3: Burns and Thibodeau. That defensive line could just wrek havoc

673
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 3: on some teams. Now, Shane Bowen's the coordinator there. I've

674
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 3: never been a big Bowen fan. I know a lot

675
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 3: of people like him. He tends to shut down the

676
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 3: run game, but I at the expense of the pass

677
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 3: game and bleed huge passing numbers. You hear me talk

678
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 3: about things like I want to stop the pass, not

679
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 3: their round. So that's just not the style for me.

680
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:10,879
Speaker 3: I'm not sure it's the right style for this team

681
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 3: with the corners on secondary they have. But I think

682
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 3: if I had to pick one team out of these

683
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:18,720
Speaker 3: four to sneak into that top ten or even push further,

684
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,279
Speaker 3: and the Giants have the talent to be really interesting.

685
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, Giants on paper especially, that line looks absolutely crazy

686
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 2: in terms of Kansas City. That the only thing I'll

687
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 2: say there, it's a bend, don't break. They just do

688
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 2: so well in the red zone. I look eighth last

689
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 2: year and from twenty twenty four in terms of the

690
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 2: top eight teams in red zone defense. They were also

691
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 2: the only one in twenty three to finish top eight,

692
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 2: So pretty much consistent in the sense that they let

693
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 2: up yards when it doesn't matter, and then behind Jones

694
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 2: and whoever they just had to put out their cornerback,

695
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,240
Speaker 2: they end up figuring it out and letting up field goals.

696
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 2: My home scores touchdowns, they win by one. It's kind

697
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 2: of been the recipe recently. And then from Buffalo's point

698
00:34:57,719 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 2: of view, I just feel like they do a very

699
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 2: good job at turning other teams over in key situations.

700
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 2: Opponent drives ending in a turnover highest in the NFL.

701
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:08,799
Speaker 2: Last year, they were highest. In twenty twenty three they

702
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:11,879
Speaker 2: were fifth and twenty twenty two. So to me, they

703
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:14,320
Speaker 2: just end up figuring out some of their games a

704
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:16,880
Speaker 2: little more high scoring, but so they let up points

705
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 2: but end up getting some turnovers. So that's kind of

706
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 2: my opinion there. Alrighty, football season is here, folks, and

707
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 2: we've got some huge improvements and updates coming on the

708
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:29,720
Speaker 2: award winning Action Network app, which we are very excited

709
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 2: to discuss in the weeks ahead leading up to and

710
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 2: including to football season. So, but to get the most

711
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:37,840
Speaker 2: out of the app, you'll still need to be an

712
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:41,439
Speaker 2: Action Pro subscriber. It's only with Action Pro you get

713
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 2: real time pick alerts from Me Brandon, the entire Action

714
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 2: Ework team of experts. Plus you can access pro projections

715
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 2: powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team, plus

716
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 2: a ton of other benefits. Right now, Action Hour podcast listeners.

717
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 2: You can save twenty dollars off the annual price of

718
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Speaker 2: Action Pro to Actionnetwork dot Com Slash Pro and use

719
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 2: Code Pod twenty Pod twenty. That's Actionnetwork dot Com Slash

720
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:12,440
Speaker 2: Pro Use Code Pod twenty for twenty dollars off the

721
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:16,960
Speaker 2: annual price of Action Pro. Okay, time for Tier five

722
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 2: in Brandon's Defensive Tiers Defensive team Tiers, we're kind of

723
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,319
Speaker 2: going through each one by one here, So you have

724
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:27,319
Speaker 2: a Tier five A and a Tier five B, which

725
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:30,840
Speaker 2: means you just can't decide between basically nine teams in

726
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:33,359
Speaker 2: the NFL. So I'll let you kind of start here

727
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 2: and explain to the listeners what they're getting in.

728
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's this fat middle of teams where I'm like, man,

729
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:39,319
Speaker 3: I don't know, some of these teams could end up

730
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 3: like seven spots higher or lower. So really I almost

731
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 3: read these nine as its own entire, separate exercise. So

732
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 3: the ones at the top are the ones I believe

733
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 3: in a little more. The ones at the bottom are

734
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 3: the ones I believe less. M So my five A

735
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:54,720
Speaker 3: tier the wild cards I believe in Number fifteen through nineteen.

736
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 3: I've got the Lions at fifteen, Brown, sixteen, Packers, seventeen,

737
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 3: Jets eighteen, and then at nineteen I've got the Rams.

738
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:07,040
Speaker 3: So Lions and Packers. Let's talk about them together. Just

739
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:10,760
Speaker 3: in the division there those were teams that actually finished

740
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:13,359
Speaker 3: even higher than this in the DV rankings last year.

741
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:15,839
Speaker 3: So do I believe in them if I have them

742
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 3: ranked lower than what they finished last year? Well, here's

743
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 3: the reason. The Lions I actually quite believe and I

744
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:24,799
Speaker 3: wasn't really expecting this, but by just talent alone, if

745
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 3: they're healthy, once they're healthy, I think this could be

746
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:31,560
Speaker 3: maybe a top five to seven defensive team on paper.

747
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,319
Speaker 3: But they're not healthy yet, particularly on the line, which

748
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:36,800
Speaker 3: should be a really big strength. But is Ay and

749
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 3: Hutchinson healthy yet? He was the defensive Player of the

750
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 3: Year candidate, probably the leading guy last year. Then he

751
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:44,320
Speaker 3: got hurt and he was a leading guy playing against

752
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:46,359
Speaker 3: a lot of backup tackles last year. So let's see

753
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:48,800
Speaker 3: how it holds up over whole season. What about a

754
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 3: Lee McNeil. We already lost multiple names on the line

755
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 3: this year. McNeil's not back yet. The big wild card

756
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 3: on the line. I think it's a defense that's going

757
00:37:57,719 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 3: to be much better later in the year once they

758
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 3: get healthy than they are now. But even outside of that,

759
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,360
Speaker 3: you go get DJ Reed at corner. That's a great addition.

760
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 3: You got Kirby Joseph and Brian Branch at safety. We

761
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 3: talked with them a lot on those Sunday Night recap

762
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 3: pods last year. I think once Detroit's healthy, this is

763
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:18,800
Speaker 3: above average at every position on defense. I am also

764
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:21,760
Speaker 3: giving them a bit of a penalty here for Kelvin Sheppard,

765
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,839
Speaker 3: the defensive coordinator. He's one of my bottom three ranked coordinators,

766
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 3: so we don't know we don't know who he is yet,

767
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:30,320
Speaker 3: we haven't seen them call plays. So actually, the injuries

768
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:33,080
Speaker 3: are knocking the ranking down. The coordinator is knocking the

769
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 3: rankings down. But over time, probably he's gonna figure some

770
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:38,360
Speaker 3: things out and the injuries will go away as they

771
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 3: get a little healthier, hopefully, so this might actually be

772
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:44,240
Speaker 3: about as low as Detroit ranks for the season. Green

773
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 3: Bay kin ends up middle of the pack here. They

774
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 3: jump last year from twenty seventh to seventh. Just low

775
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 3: hanging fruit. No Joe Berry anymore. Finally, regt rid of

776
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 3: him and Jeff Hafley did a nice job calling the plays.

777
00:38:56,600 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 3: A little skepticism with the Packers is that they had

778
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 3: a ton of tur andovers last year, and turnovers can

779
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,799
Speaker 3: be very fickle and hard to come by, especially interceptions

780
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 3: year to year. Last year they ranked fourth in EPA

781
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 3: per play, but twentieth and success rate. So that tells me,

782
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 3: down to down, we're not necessarily getting the job done,

783
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 3: but then we get the big plays to turn things around.

784
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 3: Now late in the season, success rate was ticking up

785
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 3: as well. I like the guys here. I like Edrin Cooper,

786
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 3: the young linebacker. There are some weaknesses. The edge rush

787
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 3: and the corners are not my favorite. So we know

788
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 3: if that's where I'm going to value a lot on defense,

789
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:32,320
Speaker 3: I have to be a little skeptical. But both of

790
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 3: these end up kind of middle of the pack, partly

791
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 3: too tough division of offenses to have to go against,

792
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 3: even as a pretty good defense.

793
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:41,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's interesting to group them together, not

794
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:44,920
Speaker 2: only because of same division, but not too much turnover.

795
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:47,320
Speaker 2: I mean, I think the most question on Detroit's defense

796
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:50,359
Speaker 2: is again just injuries. They stay healthy. I think they're

797
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:52,920
Speaker 2: closer to the top ten. They get more injuries week

798
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:54,879
Speaker 2: to week to week, which they kind of felt last year.

799
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 2: I think they you know, kind of fade to the twenties.

800
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:00,040
Speaker 2: I think the only you can keep going here but

801
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:04,760
Speaker 2: to me, Brown's also becomes most interesting because again, offense

802
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 2: can put pressure on defense, so depending on what they

803
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 2: can produce on the offensive side. Like it's the names

804
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 2: are there, it's not terrible. Again, you're gonna be playing

805
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:15,800
Speaker 2: a lot better competition. But kind of talk about the

806
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:16,880
Speaker 2: rest of the teams in this group.

807
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:20,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, Browns and Jets. I had clearly wrongly top three

808
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 3: in my predictions when we did this this time last year.

809
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 3: So now here they are middle of the pack. Well, yeah,

810
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:28,440
Speaker 3: the offense probably didn't help, but the defense didn't quite

811
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 3: play well enough either. For the Browns. Miles Garrett as

812
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 3: good as anyone defensively, they did lose a lot at linebacker.

813
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:37,880
Speaker 3: We're going to start a rookie there. We've got Mason Graham,

814
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:39,600
Speaker 3: who they got a high draft pick on at the

815
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 3: middle of the line. I think that could be a

816
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 3: game changer for Jim Schwartz if he hits right away.

817
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:47,759
Speaker 3: A lot with Cleveland comes down to the secondary. Denzel Ward,

818
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 3: Greg knew some Grant delt But these are guys that

819
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:52,319
Speaker 3: had been pretty good for that really good defense, but

820
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 3: they've faded pretty hard since then, So I don't know.

821
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 3: It was a hard one to figure out. But I

822
00:40:57,239 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 3: do think the Browns defense is a little too talented

823
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 3: for the tank. Like, I don't know what they got

824
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:03,759
Speaker 3: to do something about this. They need to lose games

825
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:06,239
Speaker 3: and get the high quarterback. So you know, in the NBA,

826
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 3: you'd like shut down Miles Gary with like a broken

827
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 3: pinky mid season or something like that. So we'll see

828
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 3: what happens there. The Jets, honestly, they just have a

829
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:16,439
Speaker 3: lot of the same talent that they had before things

830
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 3: really blew up, you know, last year. So I think

831
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:21,800
Speaker 3: just lots of talent on the team. Brandon Stevens in

832
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:25,359
Speaker 3: for DJ Reid at corner, can Sasce Gardner bounce back,

833
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 3: and Coonan Williams get any help on the line. A

834
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 3: tough read on the Jets, but I think there's just

835
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 3: a lot of talent there and so that's where they

836
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:35,839
Speaker 3: came in. And then the Rams, we know about their

837
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:39,839
Speaker 3: talent just up front, especially the young guys Jared Verus

838
00:41:39,920 --> 00:41:42,879
Speaker 3: awesome last year, Kobe Turner, Byron Young. Now they add

839
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 3: Poona Ford from the Chargers. The line is the strength.

840
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 3: So I think to me, the Rams is going to

841
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 3: depend on the team. As a Vikings fan boy, don't

842
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 3: they know how good the Rams defense can look. That

843
00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:55,279
Speaker 3: was the playoff matchup, and I think if you get

844
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,440
Speaker 3: a weak offensive line Minnesota was all banged up, this

845
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:00,879
Speaker 3: Rams defense is gonna wreck you. That line is gonna

846
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:03,359
Speaker 3: just come right through. But if you can hold up

847
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:06,240
Speaker 3: a little bit and the line doesn't get there, everything

848
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:08,360
Speaker 3: after the line's not so good on this team. So

849
00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 3: we'll see what Chris Hula does with them. I'm optimistic,

850
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 3: but I think they have a long way to go.

851
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 2: Stell. Yeah, Rams defensive line, Giants defensive line a few

852
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:18,959
Speaker 2: in the NFL that I I love the FOD edition,

853
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 2: So I agree. My fun stat before the next section

854
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:24,760
Speaker 2: we go into it would be just the fact that opposing

855
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:28,440
Speaker 2: offenses kicking just seventy one percent of field goals against

856
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:32,280
Speaker 2: the Browns last two seasons, lowest in the NFL. Both years,

857
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,319
Speaker 2: it's like thirty nine to fifty five, which is just

858
00:42:35,600 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 2: to me random enough where it's just gonna get worse

859
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:40,439
Speaker 2: this year. But I found that kind of fascinating. All right,

860
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:43,760
Speaker 2: next group here, so this is Tier five B because

861
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:45,920
Speaker 2: again we can't figure out what the heck's going on

862
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 2: in this section. In twentieth we've got the Bucks twenty first,

863
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:53,560
Speaker 2: the Cardinals twenty second, the Cowboys twenty third, the Chargers.

864
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:56,359
Speaker 2: You label this wild Cards. I can't talk myself into.

865
00:42:56,480 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 2: So this is just the bottom of basically the teams

866
00:42:59,080 --> 00:42:59,879
Speaker 2: we just labeled before.

867
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:03,240
Speaker 3: It is, and I feel bad having these teams basically

868
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:05,360
Speaker 3: outside in my top twenty because it doesn't seem like

869
00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:07,719
Speaker 3: any of them are bad defenses. We're about to get

870
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:09,959
Speaker 3: to the bad defenses. We got nine of those still

871
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 3: to get to. These defenses could be good. I just

872
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 3: can't quite get there for whatever reason. With the Buccaneers,

873
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:17,840
Speaker 3: it's just been kind of a slow fade, and for

874
00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:20,799
Speaker 3: a long time, just Todd Bowles was enough. But just

875
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:23,120
Speaker 3: Todd Bowles had them a top three or ten defense

876
00:43:23,160 --> 00:43:25,319
Speaker 3: three years in a row. But now the last three

877
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:29,280
Speaker 3: years thirteen fifteen, sixteens basically league average. So that's pretty

878
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:31,759
Speaker 3: much just where I have them now. Depends a lot

879
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 3: on what they can get out of Hassan Redick. Can

880
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 3: they rehab him and have him be their their latest

881
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:39,359
Speaker 3: star pass rush guy. I'm not so sure about that.

882
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:43,000
Speaker 3: With Dallas, we know with Micah Parsons, I think he's

883
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:45,840
Speaker 3: the best defensive player in the league, and so just

884
00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:48,960
Speaker 3: Parsons alone, who only who missed four games last year

885
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 3: and was hurt a lot. Just him back and Bland

886
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 3: and Diggs only played really one season combined, that should

887
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:58,719
Speaker 3: make us feel better about Dallas. I can't get that

888
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 3: excited about Maddie refuse man, Like I know we talk

889
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:04,880
Speaker 3: about like the fired coaches returning for defensive coordinator. I

890
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:07,200
Speaker 3: just I don't see the fit. I don't see the

891
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:11,759
Speaker 3: elevation there. So I can't get super too excited on Dallas.

892
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:14,880
Speaker 3: Arizona's one of those kind of just like hipster defenses

893
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:17,759
Speaker 3: that a lot of people like. They jump last year

894
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:20,800
Speaker 3: from thirty second to fourteenth, so really big move forward.

895
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:23,479
Speaker 3: Hunter Rallis the coordinator, is one of those hot names.

896
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,759
Speaker 3: And then they went out and they added sweat on

897
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 3: the defensive line and Kalays Campbell and Dalvin Tomlinson, so

898
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:32,000
Speaker 3: lots of new talent. And I think everyone's like, well,

899
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:34,319
Speaker 3: you already jumped to average and now you have these

900
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 3: guys now top ten. I'm not really sure it works

901
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:40,279
Speaker 3: that way, and I'm not sure that Rales is kind

902
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 3: of funky three safety etc. System. How will that hold up?

903
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:46,080
Speaker 3: How will that kind of shift now that people can

904
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:48,239
Speaker 3: see it coming a little bit, so I still think

905
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 3: just kind of middle ish of the pack for them,

906
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 3: and then Chargers I think are the most important one here.

907
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 3: Maybe it's important that I have them last out of

908
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:58,759
Speaker 3: these nine. Jesse Minter another one of those hot young

909
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 3: coordinator names. They got great results last year, especially past defense,

910
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:05,360
Speaker 3: but when the end to face a top twelve offense,

911
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 3: the Chargers were one and five and they gave up

912
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 3: like four hund and fifty yards to the Bengals, the Ravens,

913
00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:12,959
Speaker 3: the Bucks. Now those are good offenses, but you can't

914
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 3: give up four hund and fifty yards. The run defense

915
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 3: still wasn't great, and they don't have a lot of

916
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 3: talent up the middle of there. Just not a ton

917
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:22,400
Speaker 3: of talent on the team. So credit Minter for maximizing

918
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:25,320
Speaker 3: what they had last year, but I just am skeptical

919
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 3: overall of how this can hold up without a ton

920
00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:30,279
Speaker 3: of great talent to boost the Chargers. So they end

921
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:32,840
Speaker 3: up barely into my bottom ten here, which is not

922
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:35,360
Speaker 3: a great news for a possible playoff team.

923
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 2: The only thing I can say about this group I

924
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 2: end up just circling Arizona. I feel like if any

925
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 2: team is going to show their head a little bit.

926
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:46,799
Speaker 2: Of these four, it's going to be them. I kind

927
00:45:46,840 --> 00:45:48,920
Speaker 2: of like what they're trying to build there. Now, the

928
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 2: entire team could fall apart and be terrible, and Kyler

929
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 2: could be his usual self and we might have to

930
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 2: move on from some of the offensive pieces. But I

931
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:58,839
Speaker 2: kind of like with the defensive building. So it's, you know,

932
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 2: hopefully everything kind of moved up with the tide, but

933
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:03,560
Speaker 2: I don't mind it, especially compared to some of the

934
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:06,640
Speaker 2: other options in this group. All right, let's keep rolling here.

935
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 2: So the ultimate twenty twenty five Fantasy football Draft is here.

936
00:46:10,960 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 2: Sean Kerner and Chris Raybond have rankings, tiers, cheat sheets,

937
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:18,200
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938
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:23,320
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939
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:27,760
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940
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941
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:38,320
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942
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Speaker 2: our Fantasy Flex podcast crew is having a live event

943
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:46,160
Speaker 2: later this month. So here's Chris Raybond with all the details.

944
00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 1: Chris Raybond here Sean Kerner and I will be in

945
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:52,920
Speaker 1: Chicago on August twenty third at Joe's on Lead for

946
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 1: a live Fantasy Flex event presented by Yahoo Fantasy. Will

947
00:46:56,680 --> 00:47:00,279
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948
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:03,000
Speaker 1: want to check it out, and it's totally free to attend.

949
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 1: All you gotta do is rs VP to save your spot,

950
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:10,440
Speaker 1: and you can find the RSVP link in the description below.

951
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 1: We're gonna do a live Fantasy draft. We're gonna have

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00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 1: some preseason games going on that we're gonna sweat together,

953
00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:21,760
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954
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 1: more details, save your spot. We'll see you in Chicago

955
00:47:26,239 --> 00:47:29,920
Speaker 1: August twenty third Joe's Bar on Weed Street for the

956
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:34,240
Speaker 1: Fantasy Flex Live event presented by Y'ahoo Fantasy.

957
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 2: All righty, then we have three tiers left with about

958
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 2: nine teams, so there's gonna be a little bit of

959
00:47:41,200 --> 00:47:44,880
Speaker 2: fun here. Left Tiers six, you've got four teams listed.

960
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:47,560
Speaker 2: These are just gonna be called just not enough talent,

961
00:47:47,640 --> 00:47:49,719
Speaker 2: which maybe you could say as well for some of

962
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 2: the other teams with the Chargers and other times we

963
00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:56,440
Speaker 2: just mentioned. But Dolphins of twenty four, Jaguars at twenty

964
00:47:56,440 --> 00:48:01,440
Speaker 2: five Falcons are twenty six. Commanders At twenty six, I

965
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:04,719
Speaker 2: find it just kind of interesting when you're calling this

966
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:07,880
Speaker 2: a tier of not just enough talent kind of speaks

967
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:10,359
Speaker 2: for itself. But how did you kind of break these

968
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:11,560
Speaker 2: four teams down at all?

969
00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:13,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna kind of whip through these last ten

970
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:16,440
Speaker 3: so we can get to the takeaways. But with the Dolphins,

971
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:19,120
Speaker 3: I think they're the most talented all of these less

972
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:22,959
Speaker 3: talented teams. Hopefully they're banking on Bradley Chubb and Jalen

973
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:25,279
Speaker 3: Phillips getting back healthy. That's the big swing is they

974
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:28,640
Speaker 3: lost their pass rushers and they also trade away Jalen Ramsey.

975
00:48:28,719 --> 00:48:31,719
Speaker 3: So is Mika Fitzpatrick's still in there. I don't know.

976
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:34,440
Speaker 3: I'm kind of ranking the Dolphins at their floor. I'm

977
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:37,120
Speaker 3: pretty low on Anthony Weaver, but if they can sort

978
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:39,879
Speaker 3: of figure out the cornerback room, maybe they can get

979
00:48:40,120 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 3: a little more stable there. The Jaguars have been a

980
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:46,040
Speaker 3: bottom seven defense for the last five years. They had

981
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:49,160
Speaker 3: one real outlier good year there. There's some talent. I

982
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 3: like the linebackers, I like the pass rush a little bit,

983
00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:54,000
Speaker 3: but they just need to prove it a little bit.

984
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:58,040
Speaker 3: Similar to the Falcons bottom four defense bottom four three

985
00:48:58,080 --> 00:49:00,319
Speaker 3: of the last four years. So it's not been great

986
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,160
Speaker 3: defense for a team that we expect to kind of

987
00:49:02,160 --> 00:49:04,839
Speaker 3: be in contention in that bad division. They need pass

988
00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:07,800
Speaker 3: rush man, they need Jalen Locker, they need James Pierce

989
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:11,160
Speaker 3: to step up. That's where they've invested. I think Washington

990
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:14,160
Speaker 3: is the interesting one of this group, because again they're

991
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:16,520
Speaker 3: a team that has been kind of that hip, possible

992
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:20,000
Speaker 3: super Bowl sleeper sort of team. Dan Quinn is a

993
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:23,000
Speaker 3: good defensive name. We know that, but dan Quinn only

994
00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:25,600
Speaker 3: helped this defense go from thirty first to twenty third

995
00:49:25,680 --> 00:49:28,439
Speaker 3: last year. That's not nothing, but it's not enough either,

996
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:32,000
Speaker 3: And I feel like on this team, his usual setup

997
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 3: is he allows to have great pass rush and good corners.

998
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 3: Of course, we all love that Dan, but he doesn't

999
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:39,080
Speaker 3: have that on this team. They went out and got

1000
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 3: Lattimore last year, but he wasn't really that great for

1001
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 3: them and has a hard time staying healthy. They've got

1002
00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:47,840
Speaker 3: the best linebackers maybe in the league, Bobby Wagner and

1003
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 3: Frankie lou who they unleash. Louho has this kind of

1004
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 3: pass rushing weapon super Nobody else can pass rush on

1005
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:58,160
Speaker 3: this team. And also Bobby Wagner literally retired a couple

1006
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:00,520
Speaker 3: of years ago and now is back looking off again.

1007
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 3: So can Wagner hold up at his age, Can Lattimore

1008
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 3: stay healthy, Can lu who kind of continue to do

1009
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:10,320
Speaker 3: his thing. It's a lot on those three to still

1010
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:13,960
Speaker 3: be a bottom ten defense last year. So I'm talent alone.

1011
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 3: This is actually my number thirty defense, So I'm really

1012
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 3: skeptical that there's really much here for Quinn to work with.

1013
00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:22,759
Speaker 3: I actually have him elevating a bad group a little

1014
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:25,080
Speaker 3: bit higher, so like what he did last year. But

1015
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:26,520
Speaker 3: I think it's going to be a lot of shootouts

1016
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:27,239
Speaker 3: for the Commanders.

1017
00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:31,040
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think it's also the biggest like pin in

1018
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:34,600
Speaker 2: this entire field is Washington's defense. They're better. I think

1019
00:50:34,640 --> 00:50:36,799
Speaker 2: their team is going to be much better. They're worse.

1020
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:38,280
Speaker 2: And I think it's gonna be way too much pressure

1021
00:50:38,320 --> 00:50:40,000
Speaker 2: on Jaden because I think we kind of know what

1022
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:42,480
Speaker 2: we're going to get out of the offense, assuming mclaurin's

1023
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:45,800
Speaker 2: there and all that good stuff. All right, Tier seven,

1024
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:48,960
Speaker 2: these teams might just be terrible, and one of them

1025
00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 2: is the Bengals. So the Bengals are twenty eighth. The

1026
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:54,200
Speaker 2: Titans are twenty ninth, the Saints are thirtieth. I feel

1027
00:50:54,200 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 2: like you could talk about whatever you want here, but

1028
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 2: it's Cincinnati that is, you know, what needs to be

1029
00:50:59,080 --> 00:51:01,080
Speaker 2: discussed because they need to be higher for the team

1030
00:51:01,120 --> 00:51:01,600
Speaker 2: to be better.

1031
00:51:01,960 --> 00:51:03,400
Speaker 3: Agree and we don't need to say much about the

1032
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:05,360
Speaker 3: Titans and Saints. It's the Bengals that have to be

1033
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:08,520
Speaker 3: the standout here. And look, other than Trey Hendrickson, who

1034
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:11,640
Speaker 3: they keep trying to trade for some reason, they're just

1035
00:51:11,800 --> 00:51:14,319
Speaker 3: not very good. I have them average or worse. Every

1036
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:17,560
Speaker 3: other spot on the team, probably a bottom three secondary.

1037
00:51:18,000 --> 00:51:20,920
Speaker 3: The hope if you're a Bengals fan is Al Golden.

1038
00:51:21,200 --> 00:51:24,879
Speaker 3: We've seen in recent years, go get that guy out

1039
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:27,520
Speaker 3: of the college ranks, and Al Golden was at Notre

1040
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:29,880
Speaker 3: Dame last year. If you watched the playoffs, that defense

1041
00:51:30,040 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 3: was really good. They could really handle some opposing offenses.

1042
00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:36,759
Speaker 3: We've seen Jesse Minter, We've seen Mike McDonald. These are

1043
00:51:36,800 --> 00:51:39,640
Speaker 3: guys that have come through the college ranks. Maybe Al

1044
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 3: Golden can find some answers, but man, he's got his

1045
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:45,839
Speaker 3: work cutout because there's not a lot of talent on

1046
00:51:45,880 --> 00:51:47,960
Speaker 3: this team. I think the takeaway for me with the

1047
00:51:47,960 --> 00:51:52,640
Speaker 3: Bengals is very passing a lot, so you'll want Bengals

1048
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:55,680
Speaker 3: for fantasy. You might want them for like Offensive Player

1049
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 3: of the Year. I don't think I want Joe Burrow

1050
00:51:57,719 --> 00:51:59,799
Speaker 3: for MVP. That's a team award and he's got no

1051
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:02,840
Speaker 3: no coaching, and no defense, So I don't love that

1052
00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:05,319
Speaker 3: for the Bengals. I probably will not be investing in

1053
00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:06,799
Speaker 3: many Bengals futures this year.

1054
00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:10,200
Speaker 2: Yeah. The most frustrating stat for Bengals fans on defense

1055
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:12,839
Speaker 2: last year was they allowed twenty two passing touchdowns when

1056
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:15,960
Speaker 2: leading most in the NFL, which is just you know,

1057
00:52:16,160 --> 00:52:18,840
Speaker 2: when every time you saw Burrow get frustrated on the sideline,

1058
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:20,520
Speaker 2: it's because they allowed a touchdown. He has to do

1059
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:25,040
Speaker 2: more work. Okay, Tier eight and if you've been counting,

1060
00:52:25,120 --> 00:52:27,879
Speaker 2: we have two teams left. At number thirty one, We've

1061
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:30,680
Speaker 2: got the Raiders at number thirty two. At last we

1062
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:35,400
Speaker 2: have the Panthers. I mean, we've talked about potential value

1063
00:52:35,400 --> 00:52:37,480
Speaker 2: on both of these teams on some level at some

1064
00:52:37,560 --> 00:52:40,319
Speaker 2: point over the last eighteen months because we feel like

1065
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:44,000
Speaker 2: the rosters are getting better. But holy mackerel, Carolina was

1066
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:46,719
Speaker 2: literally the worst thing you've seen on defense last year.

1067
00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:49,160
Speaker 2: Like statistically, you go through some of the record books

1068
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:51,520
Speaker 2: last decade this and that some of the numbers were

1069
00:52:51,520 --> 00:52:54,440
Speaker 2: absolutely terrible. So tell me what I'm supposed to say

1070
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:56,320
Speaker 2: about these two teams. If anything, these.

1071
00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:59,799
Speaker 3: Teams bummed me out. Man Patrick Brown, the Raiders coordinator,

1072
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:02,840
Speaker 3: Everro the Panthers corner. I like both of these guys,

1073
00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 3: but there's just nothing here to work with, Like, you

1074
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:06,759
Speaker 3: can't be an artist if you're not gonna give me

1075
00:53:06,880 --> 00:53:10,200
Speaker 3: supplies to paint. Well, there's the campus is empty here.

1076
00:53:10,560 --> 00:53:12,640
Speaker 3: Ty goes to the Max Crosby because I had to

1077
00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:15,040
Speaker 3: pick somebody to be in last Max is obviously a

1078
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:16,759
Speaker 3: good player. I don't know if I can get a

1079
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:18,319
Speaker 3: defensive player of the You're a stock and a guy

1080
00:53:18,360 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 3: that the defense ranks this low though, there's there's just

1081
00:53:21,239 --> 00:53:23,720
Speaker 3: not much here, and it it bums me out because

1082
00:53:24,080 --> 00:53:26,279
Speaker 3: we've said in least podcasts a lot of good things

1083
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:28,600
Speaker 3: about the Raiders and Panthers slowly moving up in a

1084
00:53:28,640 --> 00:53:32,719
Speaker 3: lot of areas, the coaching improving, the quarterback improving. If

1085
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:35,720
Speaker 3: the defenses are this bad and this much lacking talent,

1086
00:53:36,160 --> 00:53:38,120
Speaker 3: is gonna be hard to find the balance there. So

1087
00:53:38,719 --> 00:53:41,440
Speaker 3: I think that defense is hard to predict. We've seen it.

1088
00:53:41,480 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 3: Look just last year Denver number thirty jumps up to

1089
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:46,879
Speaker 3: in the top five. We've seen like Cleveland jump from

1090
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:49,480
Speaker 3: way down up to the top group. So maybe there

1091
00:53:49,480 --> 00:53:51,719
Speaker 3: are some answers just getting the right scheme. Maybe it

1092
00:53:51,800 --> 00:53:55,239
Speaker 3: is Gramm or Averro finding something. I can't predict that

1093
00:53:55,239 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 3: that's gonna happen right now. By prediction is that they're

1094
00:53:58,040 --> 00:54:01,320
Speaker 3: gonna be terrible. But yeah, a month into the season,

1095
00:54:01,680 --> 00:54:03,839
Speaker 3: if we're starting to see some answers there, maybe they

1096
00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:05,600
Speaker 3: have found something. Maybe some of the young guys that

1097
00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:08,960
Speaker 3: started to hit. The Raiders actually last year had a

1098
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 3: pretty good defense down the stretch back half of the

1099
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:14,160
Speaker 3: season under Patrick Graham, who the new regime kept on.

1100
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:16,480
Speaker 3: But then they lost all the dudes, Like they got

1101
00:54:16,520 --> 00:54:19,960
Speaker 3: rid of Splaine and Diablo, they got rid of marig

1102
00:54:20,040 --> 00:54:24,319
Speaker 3: at safety, so they just didn't The guys that had

1103
00:54:24,320 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 3: been performing well aren't there anymore now. So I don't know.

1104
00:54:28,000 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 3: It's gonna be tough to see how those teams work

1105
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 3: out for the positive.

1106
00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:35,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's more upside with the Raiders. But Carolina, the

1107
00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:38,839
Speaker 2: one stat that's crazy. They allowed opponents fifty point two

1108
00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:42,879
Speaker 2: percent conversion percentage on third down last year on third down,

1109
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:45,719
Speaker 2: that's over fifty percent. I couldn't believe it when I

1110
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:48,279
Speaker 2: saw it was the worst for any team in the

1111
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:51,600
Speaker 2: Wildcard era outside the COVID season. Now five or six

1112
00:54:51,640 --> 00:54:54,680
Speaker 2: new starters on defense, but that number in itself is ridiculous.

1113
00:54:54,719 --> 00:54:58,680
Speaker 2: All right, let's recap the top ten defensive rankings from Brandon.

1114
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:01,759
Speaker 2: So number one was Houston, Number two was the Steelers,

1115
00:55:02,080 --> 00:55:06,839
Speaker 2: number three the vikings for the Ravens, five, the Eagles, six,

1116
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:11,520
Speaker 2: the Seahawks, seven, the Bears, eight, the Broncos, nine, the

1117
00:55:11,560 --> 00:55:14,279
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers, ten was the Patriots, and then just

1118
00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:17,360
Speaker 2: for fun, eleven was Buffalo and twelve was the Giants.

1119
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:20,399
Speaker 2: So we can talk about defense and offense. You could

1120
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:23,680
Speaker 2: do compile rankings, but just go through some betting takeaways

1121
00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:26,160
Speaker 2: from everything we've discussed here. BA.

1122
00:55:26,239 --> 00:55:29,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, so we've had some pretty strong conference splits when

1123
00:55:29,440 --> 00:55:32,200
Speaker 3: we've done some of these with the quarterbacks. The AFC

1124
00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:34,600
Speaker 3: is all the quarterbacks, top five all in the AFC

1125
00:55:34,800 --> 00:55:38,720
Speaker 3: with skill positions. It's NFC dominating. Pretty even split on defense.

1126
00:55:38,760 --> 00:55:41,239
Speaker 3: I didn't really expect that, but pretty even top and

1127
00:55:41,320 --> 00:55:45,160
Speaker 3: bottom of the rankings. But notably the NFC now has

1128
00:55:45,239 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 3: four teams that finished top ten offense and defense in

1129
00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:53,680
Speaker 3: my rankings. The Eagles no surprise, the Niners, the Vikings,

1130
00:55:53,719 --> 00:55:56,680
Speaker 3: and the Bears that's a surprise. The AFC has only

1131
00:55:56,760 --> 00:55:59,760
Speaker 3: one team that finished top ten in both. That's the Ravens.

1132
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:02,759
Speaker 3: If the Bills and Chiefs are just outside eleventh and

1133
00:56:02,800 --> 00:56:05,320
Speaker 3: thirteenth in defense, but I think that's notable, and the

1134
00:56:05,400 --> 00:56:08,200
Speaker 3: Ravens maybe are the juggernaut in the AFC this year.

1135
00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:11,680
Speaker 3: Other question, how far can just defense case you un

1136
00:56:11,719 --> 00:56:14,480
Speaker 3: if we don't believe in the offense. Well, last year

1137
00:56:14,520 --> 00:56:18,040
Speaker 3: the top nine defenses by DVA all made the playoffs

1138
00:56:18,440 --> 00:56:21,600
Speaker 3: and only the Commanders and Rams made the playoffs from

1139
00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:25,160
Speaker 3: bottom ten in defense. So defense is becoming more and

1140
00:56:25,239 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 3: more important. It used to be heavily weighted to offense

1141
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:31,640
Speaker 3: and that sort of question. But in our rankings it's

1142
00:56:31,680 --> 00:56:33,880
Speaker 3: pretty good news for the texansan steel is if they

1143
00:56:33,960 --> 00:56:36,800
Speaker 3: really are a tier ahead of everyone in that top group,

1144
00:56:37,040 --> 00:56:39,840
Speaker 3: that should be pretty safe. What about the Broncos, what

1145
00:56:39,880 --> 00:56:42,800
Speaker 3: about the Seahawks or the Patriots? I have them ranked

1146
00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:45,640
Speaker 3: best in their own division. Could that be enough to

1147
00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:48,440
Speaker 3: be a surprise division to win or a contender. Perhaps

1148
00:56:48,440 --> 00:56:52,279
Speaker 3: on those teams. The Texans defense alone, maybe that's enough.

1149
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:55,080
Speaker 3: In the AFC South, it might be. In the entire

1150
00:56:55,120 --> 00:56:59,919
Speaker 3: division four offenses and four defenses. The only other unit

1151
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:03,760
Speaker 3: that's even top half of the league is the Colts defense,

1152
00:57:03,760 --> 00:57:07,640
Speaker 3: and only barely by number fourteen. So the AFC South,

1153
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 3: the Texans, if they are the number one defense, are

1154
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 3: close to it. That might be enough for them. And

1155
00:57:12,560 --> 00:57:15,680
Speaker 3: a couple other division takeaways here, look at the NFC,

1156
00:57:16,000 --> 00:57:20,240
Speaker 3: NFC North and NFC South. The NFC North has the

1157
00:57:20,360 --> 00:57:23,439
Speaker 3: entire half of thesion, entire division is in the top

1158
00:57:23,480 --> 00:57:26,800
Speaker 3: half of the league on defense. The NFC South the

1159
00:57:26,920 --> 00:57:30,440
Speaker 3: entire division's twentieth or worse. Life is not fair. Why

1160
00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:32,800
Speaker 3: does one division have to face all the good defenses

1161
00:57:32,840 --> 00:57:35,160
Speaker 3: and have all the good offenses and the other one

1162
00:57:35,200 --> 00:57:38,120
Speaker 3: doesn't at all? In fact, in the North, so just

1163
00:57:38,160 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 3: in case you're wondering, that's Vikings, Bears, Packers, Lions, all

1164
00:57:42,040 --> 00:57:44,840
Speaker 3: eight units are top half of the league. Technically the Bears,

1165
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:47,520
Speaker 3: the Packers defense is number seventeen, but we'll call it

1166
00:57:47,600 --> 00:57:52,720
Speaker 3: half of the league. In the NFC South, Bucks, Falcons, Panthers, Saints,

1167
00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:56,200
Speaker 3: all eight units are bottom half of the league except

1168
00:57:56,240 --> 00:57:58,960
Speaker 3: the Bucks number fifteen offense, which is close enough for me.

1169
00:57:59,440 --> 00:58:02,240
Speaker 3: So I don't know what we do with that. Except

1170
00:58:02,640 --> 00:58:05,880
Speaker 3: the NFC North this year on the schedule plays all

1171
00:58:05,880 --> 00:58:08,400
Speaker 3: four NFC East teams on all four AFC North teams.

1172
00:58:08,400 --> 00:58:10,600
Speaker 3: That's maybe bad news if you want to invest in

1173
00:58:10,640 --> 00:58:13,040
Speaker 3: a sleeper in one of those like the Commanders for example.

1174
00:58:13,520 --> 00:58:16,880
Speaker 3: Here they are low in our defensive rankings and they

1175
00:58:16,880 --> 00:58:20,040
Speaker 3: got to play all four teams in the NFC North

1176
00:58:20,040 --> 00:58:23,160
Speaker 3: this season. That's not great. The Bengals, who we keep

1177
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:26,520
Speaker 3: dumping on day after day in these rankings, They've got

1178
00:58:26,520 --> 00:58:28,960
Speaker 3: to play all four NFC North teams. This yes, not

1179
00:58:29,000 --> 00:58:32,600
Speaker 3: great on the schedule. Meanwhile, the NFC South, who doesn't

1180
00:58:32,600 --> 00:58:35,360
Speaker 3: good at anything, they played the NFC West and the

1181
00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:37,880
Speaker 3: AFC East this year. So maybe you like a sleeper

1182
00:58:38,280 --> 00:58:41,000
Speaker 3: in one of those areas. Maybe you like an MVP

1183
00:58:41,200 --> 00:58:43,479
Speaker 3: or an offensive player to dear candidate geing to face

1184
00:58:43,520 --> 00:58:47,320
Speaker 3: all these potentially terrible defenses. So warning flag for the

1185
00:58:47,360 --> 00:58:50,640
Speaker 3: Bengals and the Commanders, and just lots of interesting takeaways.

1186
00:58:50,640 --> 00:58:53,280
Speaker 3: We could do hours more of looking at numbers and

1187
00:58:53,280 --> 00:58:55,920
Speaker 3: the rankings and all the stats, and this will all

1188
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:58,240
Speaker 3: be up in written form as well throughout this week

1189
00:58:58,280 --> 00:59:00,760
Speaker 3: as we start to kind of now that I'm done

1190
00:59:00,760 --> 00:59:03,680
Speaker 3: with the rankings, pushed, Okay, give me some bets. What

1191
00:59:03,680 --> 00:59:06,120
Speaker 3: are the futures? Who's the worst to first division? That's

1192
00:59:06,160 --> 00:59:08,480
Speaker 3: all coming, that's all next. This is kind of wrapping

1193
00:59:08,560 --> 00:59:09,560
Speaker 3: up the rankings from here.

1194
00:59:10,320 --> 00:59:12,120
Speaker 2: Yeah. All I really just heard is that the Panthers

1195
00:59:12,160 --> 00:59:16,760
Speaker 2: are going to make the playoffs. So that's yeah, we

1196
00:59:16,800 --> 00:59:19,000
Speaker 2: are back once again. Yeah. I mean, I think it's

1197
00:59:19,040 --> 00:59:21,560
Speaker 2: most interesting when you look at your defensive and offensive

1198
00:59:22,040 --> 00:59:24,240
Speaker 2: ratings and I did a rankings and I did a

1199
00:59:24,280 --> 00:59:27,680
Speaker 2: little composite like you think the most balanced teams are

1200
00:59:27,760 --> 00:59:33,880
Speaker 2: mostly Baltimore, Philly, Minnesota, with a Buffalo, San Francisco, Chicago,

1201
00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:36,640
Speaker 2: and Kansas City kind of after Like to me, it

1202
00:59:36,680 --> 00:59:39,280
Speaker 2: felt like those were the seven teams that had it

1203
00:59:39,360 --> 00:59:41,360
Speaker 2: kind of both working for them on both sides of

1204
00:59:41,360 --> 00:59:46,320
Speaker 2: the ball. Interesting nonetheless, But that is it for this podcast.

1205
00:59:46,440 --> 00:59:49,120
Speaker 2: We did Offensive, which you can also check out is live.

1206
00:59:49,440 --> 00:59:52,960
Speaker 2: This one is defensive. Brandon will have everything written up,

1207
00:59:53,400 --> 00:59:55,520
Speaker 2: So thank you for tuning in. Do not forget to

1208
00:59:55,600 --> 00:59:58,240
Speaker 2: leave us a five star rating and review wherever you

1209
00:59:58,320 --> 01:00:02,200
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1210
01:00:02,280 --> 01:00:05,160
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1211
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1212
01:00:09,120 --> 01:00:12,840
Speaker 2: actionwork dot com slash Pro. Also check out the Action

1213
01:00:13,000 --> 01:00:15,720
Speaker 2: Oric discord. There's a link in the episode description of

1214
01:00:15,800 --> 01:00:19,560
Speaker 2: this podcast for Brandon Anderson. I'm Evan Abrams. We will

1215
01:00:19,600 --> 01:00:21,600
Speaker 2: see you next time. Enjoying your defense.

1216
01:00:37,440 --> 01:00:41,960
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1217
01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:44,760
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