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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting CROs PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris

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Speaker 1: along with Bau mcbrair. Big week coming up on the

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Speaker 1: PGA Tour. It's not a major, but the Memorial Tournament

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Speaker 1: is one of the most prestigious non majors and Mierfield

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Speaker 1: Village is one of the better courses on the tour.

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Speaker 1: Boa will give you a full betting preview of the Memorial.

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Speaker 1: We'll discuss the course, the field and the odds. We'll

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Speaker 1: give you our early betting cards and we'll make our

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Speaker 1: weekly one and done picks at the end of the show.

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Speaker 1: But we'll start with a recap of the Charles Schwab Challenge.

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Speaker 1: Ben Griffin gets his first individual PGA Tour victory. The

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Speaker 1: twenty nine year old Griffin had teamed with Andrew Novak

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Speaker 1: to win last month's Zurich Classic of New Orleans, a

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Speaker 1: two man team event, but he had won on his

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Speaker 1: own until he held off Maddy Schmidt Sunday at Colonial.

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Speaker 1: It was basically a two man battle between Griffin and

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Speaker 1: Schmidt all weekend. Scotty Scheffler got off to a slow start.

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Speaker 1: He was one under par after two rounds. Scotty got

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Speaker 1: going on Saturday at the six under par sixty four,

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Speaker 1: but couldn't make magic. On Sunday, he shot a one

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Speaker 1: under par sixty nine finished in a tie for fourth.

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Speaker 1: Four shots back. Griffin and Schmid were tied for the

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Speaker 1: lead at thirteen under par going into the final round.

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Speaker 1: Griffin had gone sixty six, sixty three, sixty eighth in

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Speaker 1: his first three rounds, and he got off to a

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Speaker 1: blistering start on Sunday. He rolled in a fifteen foot

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Speaker 1: eagle putt on the par five opening hall, then followed

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Speaker 1: it up with a birdie on number two, and that

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Speaker 1: hot start would prove to be big later on, Schmid

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Speaker 1: struggled at the onset. After a birdie on number one,

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Speaker 1: he bogie number two, double, bogie number five, bogie number six.

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Speaker 1: It looked like Griffin might run away with the title,

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Speaker 1: but then Griffin started leaking oil. He didn't make another

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Speaker 1: birdie the rest of the way. After his birdie on

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Speaker 1: number two, Gryffin bogie the sixth and the seventh made

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Speaker 1: another bogey in the par three thirteenth, at which point

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Speaker 1: his lead was down to two shots. Schmid had also

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Speaker 1: bogie the thirteenth himself, then bogie the fourteenth, but Schmid

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Speaker 1: got with it one shot when he stiffed his t

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Speaker 1: shot on the par three sixteenth, hold it within three feet,

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Speaker 1: sank the birdie pot, then watched Griffin make a sloppy bogie,

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Speaker 1: but after they both missed the green on the par

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Speaker 1: four seventeenth, Griffin hit a great chip to get up

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Speaker 1: and down for a par while Schmidt failed to get

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Speaker 1: up and down from a greenside bunker. That gave Griffin

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Speaker 1: a two shot cushion going into the final hole and

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Speaker 1: he needed it. Bow. Both players missed the green on

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Speaker 1: the par four eighteenth, Griffin chipped to about four feet.

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Speaker 1: Maddy Schmidt then hold a chip from the deep up

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Speaker 1: and back of the green to give Griffin the most

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Speaker 1: pressure packed pot of his career, but Griffin rolled in

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Speaker 1: the four foot or to earn the trophy. It was

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Speaker 1: a tough sunday at Colonial Bow. Those little greens were

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Speaker 1: firm and hard to hold, and it was a windy

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Speaker 1: day in Fort Worth, Texas. What did you make of

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Speaker 1: Ben Griffin's win at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

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Speaker 2: He was solid all the way through all four rounds.

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Speaker 2: He didn't think like he was going to really make

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Speaker 2: any big mistakes and he didn't. His ball striking was

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Speaker 2: outstanding and when he was wayward he recovered very well.

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Speaker 2: This was a very good scrambling week for Ben Griffin

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Speaker 2: and it was it made all the difference in the world.

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Speaker 2: He made lots of birdies when they were there, but

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Speaker 2: he also put himself in some tough spots and got

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Speaker 2: out of nearly all of them. So it was a

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Speaker 2: really strong field there at Colonial. With Scottie Scheffler within

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Speaker 2: striking distance most of the week, especially after Saturday, we

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Speaker 2: just didn't see the birdie making from Scheffler. It looked

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Speaker 2: like he couldn't buy a bucket on Sunday. So it

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Speaker 2: was more like, Okay, is Griffin gonna hang on or

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Speaker 2: is Schmidt gonna continue to make double bogie and then bogie.

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Speaker 2: Every time Matti Schmidt got a little bit of momentum,

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Speaker 2: he shot himself in the foot and Griffin just steady ed,

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Speaker 2: he just kept it going. It was a really good

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Speaker 2: test of golf. I like Colonial, it's golf how it's

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Speaker 2: meant to be played. It doesn't You don't need to

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Speaker 2: have a eight thousand yard course to challenge these guys.

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Speaker 2: And again it's a score worse than fifteen hundred. Part

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Speaker 2: a win a tournament is that's the sweet spot is

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Speaker 2: if you're looking at fifteen or better under par, then

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Speaker 2: I think it's too easy for these guys. I think

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Speaker 2: we're going to get another good one this week.

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Speaker 1: Scotty shot out of the ditch on Saturday had to

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Speaker 1: be one of the shots of the air. Scotty messed

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Speaker 1: way left lucky just to find the ball. Yeah, long grass.

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Speaker 1: He was probably what twenty feet twenty five feet below

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Speaker 1: the fairway.

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Speaker 2: The ball was three feet above is above his feet.

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Speaker 1: That too, and somehow put it on the greenabout twenty feet.

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Speaker 2: Away cabbage, and I was amazed he didn't make that

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Speaker 2: birdie putt. Everyone in the world was like, well, now

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Speaker 2: he's going to make that twenty footer and make the

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Speaker 2: best three ever. But a par from that spot. Well,

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Speaker 2: like you said, I was amazed that they found his

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Speaker 2: ball down there. I'm sure he gets lots of help

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Speaker 2: from all the volunteers. Marshall's patrons. We don't get that

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Speaker 2: courtesy at our local MUNI do we pat.

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Speaker 1: No, we don't, which is why I spend a lot

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Speaker 1: of money on go off ballspoe correct. So it's a

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Speaker 1: line item in the family budget.

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Speaker 2: It's written in pen.

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Speaker 1: One final word about that tournament. I was wildly entertained

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Speaker 1: by that big cutter that Ben Griffin was hitting off

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Speaker 1: the tee, especially on Saturday when he was so dialed

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Speaker 1: in with that. I mean, that's like friends of mine

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Speaker 1: bo who have a slice know they're going to slice

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Speaker 1: off the tee every time, and they, you know, down

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Speaker 1: the left tree line. Huh. But Ben Griffin was doing

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Speaker 1: that planned and to perfection, so and he could win.

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Speaker 2: He's not the longest hitter on tour, but he was

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Speaker 2: hitting it out there like it was. I was pretty

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Speaker 2: impressed because Griffin's off the tea game was immaculate.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he was really good off the tee, really good

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Speaker 1: all around. Big win for him. And now we are

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Speaker 1: onto the memorial event and we will turn our attention

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Speaker 1: to the memorial in just a moment.

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Speaker 2: But first download the free betting pros app for iOS

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Speaker 2: own custom betting system define winning trends and profitable opportunities.

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Speaker 2: the upgrade screen now.

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Speaker 1: The Memorial Tournament is a signature event, the second to

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Speaker 1: last signature event of the season, so it's an exclusive

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Speaker 1: field of about seventy players. I think the official count

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Speaker 1: is seventy one. There will be a thirty six hole

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Speaker 1: cut for this one, with the top fifty players plus

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Speaker 1: ties continuing into the weekend, and any player within ten

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Speaker 1: shots of the lead after Friday's round will make the cut.

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Speaker 1: The Memorial will be played at the Mirfield Village Golf

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Speaker 1: Club in Dublin, Ohio, the house that Jack belt Golden Bass. Yes, sir,

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Speaker 1: this Jack Nicholas design is a par seventy two that

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Speaker 1: will play two seven, five hundred and sixty nine yards.

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Speaker 1: Course was renovated four years ago and now plays tougher

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Speaker 1: than ever for the pros. The greens at Merefield Village

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Speaker 1: are bent grass. They are firm, and they are lightning fast.

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Speaker 1: If you want to hit these greens, you best find

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Speaker 1: the fairway, because it's going to be extremely hard to

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Speaker 1: keep approach shots on the green if you're hitting from

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Speaker 1: out of the thick chewy rough at Mirefield Village, and

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Speaker 1: if you miss the green, it's going to be hard

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Speaker 1: to get up and down. Mirefield Village has long been

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Speaker 1: one of the toughest scrambling courses on tour, probably taking

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Speaker 1: a backseat only to Augustin National in that department. Fairways

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Speaker 1: are reasonably generous, although it should be noted that the

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty one renovation did hinch off some of the

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Speaker 1: fairways at distances where the pros were likely to be

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Speaker 1: hitting their drives. Helps to be a big hitter. Seven

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Speaker 1: of the ten par fours at Merefield Village are longer

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Speaker 1: than four hundred and fifty yards, and the two closing

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Speaker 1: par fours are five hundred and three and four hundred

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Speaker 1: and eighty yards. The two longest part five are five

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Speaker 1: hundred and eighty two and five hundred and eighty eight yards.

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Speaker 1: Since this is a Jack Nicholas design, it should be

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Speaker 1: no surprise that the course favors players who like to

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Speaker 1: hit a fade, hit it from left to right, and

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Speaker 1: also who hit the ball high as Jack. Did you

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Speaker 1: know who favors a left to right ball flight and

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Speaker 1: can hit a pretty high ball? Bo I about number

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Speaker 1: one player in the world, Scotty Scheffler, He just happens

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Speaker 1: to be.

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Speaker 2: I keep hearing that name, bringing like Tonidas in my ears.

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Speaker 1: And as it turns out, Scotty Scheffler is the Memorials

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Speaker 1: defending champion. He finished eight under par last year to

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Speaker 1: beat Colin Morricawa by a stroke. Only eleven players in

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Speaker 1: the field finished under par last year. Victor Hoblin who

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Speaker 1: won the Memorial in twenty twenty three, He was seven

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Speaker 1: under par and beat Danny McCarthy in a playoff. Billy

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Speaker 1: Horschell was thirteen under par to win. In twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: He was four shots clear of the field. Patrick Cantley

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Speaker 1: won here in twenty twenty one he was minus thirteen

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Speaker 1: and beat Colin Morricaw won a playoff. Some tough luck

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Speaker 1: for Kalin Morricaw won this event. A Bridesmaid Can'tlay also

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Speaker 1: won in twenty nineteen, and John Rahm won the Memorial

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty. Could be pretty breezy at Mirfield Village

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Speaker 1: this week. Bo Windsor expected to blow at ten to

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Speaker 1: twenty miles per hour on Thursday and Saturday, ten to

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Speaker 1: fifteen miles per hour Friday and Sunday. Temperature should be

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Speaker 1: in the seventies for most of the week, and there's

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Speaker 1: no rain in the forecast. Mirefield Village is going to

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Speaker 1: be playing firm and fast. What's it going to take

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Speaker 1: to win the Memorial this week? Bo, And I'm curious

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Speaker 1: about what you think the winning score at Mirefield Village

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Speaker 1: might be.

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, you could probably sense my excitement as

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Speaker 2: you listed all the things that were going to make

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Speaker 2: this place more difficult for This field is a stacked field,

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Speaker 2: so I don't expect the scoring to be too unfavorable,

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Speaker 2: but I do expect the winning score to be single

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Speaker 2: digits under par. It's going to take the full bag,

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Speaker 2: and starting with off the tee, you mentioned distances an

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Speaker 2: advantage here. It's an advantage here, but mainly good drives

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Speaker 2: being able to gain strokes off the tee and find

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Speaker 2: the fairway in good position for approach. This is still

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Speaker 2: a second shot golf course, and you're still gonna have

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Speaker 2: to worry about pretty much any approach shot one seventy

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Speaker 2: five and above, So long iron play mid iron play

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Speaker 2: is going to come into play here. Bogie avoidance and

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Speaker 2: scrambling are huge here. As you mentioned, the rough is gnarly.

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Speaker 2: If you find it, you have to be able to

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Speaker 2: mitigate damage. It is a lot like Colonial in a way,

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Speaker 2: where you got fast bent grass greens and you have

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Speaker 2: pinched landing areas and it's going to take playing from

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Speaker 2: the fairway. You noticed that Colonial if even when Scotti

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Speaker 2: Scheffler was in that first cut of intermediate rough, he

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Speaker 2: wasn't getting spin on those approach shots because there just

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Speaker 2: wasn't any way to get the grooves on the ball

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Speaker 2: from those lies. It's going to be more of the

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Speaker 2: same here at the Memorial. I am a huge fan

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Speaker 2: of this golf course. I'm a huge fan of this

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Speaker 2: tournament in general, even though it is a limited field event.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to overla all of that and just say

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Speaker 2: I'm excited to see the carnage. I probably think it's

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Speaker 2: gonna between five and ten under par, but I don't

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Speaker 2: have Scottie winning. There's a teaser.

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Speaker 1: Interesting, Yeah, I'm I always watch in terror when I

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Speaker 1: see this tournament with the greens, like just imagining what

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Speaker 1: my horrendous short game would be like at Mirfield Village.

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Speaker 1: It's just enough to make me lose sleep.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, at the in these conditions, it would be

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Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty plus for most amateur golfers.

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Speaker 1: Yes, sir, and we'll get to the odds for the

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Speaker 1: Memorial in just a moment.

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Speaker 1: Terms apply now for the odds at the Memorial, we're

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Speaker 1: recording the show on Sunday night due to the Memorial

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Speaker 1: Day holiday on Monday, so all odds are courtesy of

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Speaker 1: DraftKings as of Sunday night. Some of these odds may

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Speaker 1: have changed by the time you consume this show, Scottie

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Speaker 1: Scheffler opens as a heavy favorite at plus two seventy

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Speaker 1: Xanders Schoffley is plus fifteen hundred, Justin Thomas and Colin

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Speaker 1: Morricawa are plus eighteen hundred. Patrick Cantley is plus nineteen hundred,

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Speaker 1: Ludwig Oberg is plus two thousand, Tommy Fleetwood and Corey

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Speaker 1: Connors are plus three thousand. Victor Hovland, Shane Lowry, Jordan Speith,

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Speaker 1: and Jadeki mount Siyama are all plus thirty five hundred,

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Speaker 1: and Seawoo, Kim Sepstraca and Daniel Berger are plus four thousand.

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Speaker 1: Once again, Bo, the first question is whether you have

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Speaker 1: any interest in betting Scotty at such short odds against

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Speaker 1: the loaded field, But it sounds like you don't.

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Speaker 2: And I thought I was really smart this last week

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Speaker 2: at Colonial, I was really smart. I was I was

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Speaker 2: patting myself on the back. I did all the waiting game. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: there wasn't an opportunity to where we really wanted to

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Speaker 2: bet Scotti Scheffler on Thursday. Friday came around and he

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Speaker 2: was pretty far behind. He started off hot on Saturday.

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Speaker 2: That's when I sprung into action on Saturday Saturday morning

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Speaker 2: I found Scotti Scheffler at plus fourteen hundred. It was

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Speaker 2: right right as he's hitting his Saturday sixty four, and

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Speaker 2: I mean moving day is Scotti's day, and so I thought, oh,

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Speaker 2: as long as he's within six or seven strokes going

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Speaker 2: into Sunday, it won't take much for him to put

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Speaker 2: some pressure on Griffin and Schmid. Unfortunately, Scotti Scheffler did

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Speaker 2: not come through with the plus fourteen hundred because he

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Speaker 2: shot kind of okay on Sunday. It wasn't great. This

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Speaker 2: is I'm kind of gonna employ the same strategy here,

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Speaker 2: but I'm not going to be paying as close attention

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Speaker 2: to the live odds for Scotty this week as I

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Speaker 2: would at Colonial, where I think that the field is

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Speaker 2: strong enough here to where I can look elsewhere and

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Speaker 2: not have to worry about Scotty. He's not the boogeyman

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Speaker 2: here like he was the boogeyman at Colonial. He is

275
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Speaker 2: often the boogeyman like he was at Craig Ranch a

276
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Speaker 2: few weeks ago. I don't think he wins this week.

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Speaker 2: Defending champion is a hard thing to come into, especially

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Speaker 2: when you just want the PGA. He should have put

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Speaker 2: forth a better opportunity last week at Colonial. I don't

280
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Speaker 2: think this is his week. I just don't, And of

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00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:37,920
Speaker 2: course I could be very wrong, because he's still the

282
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Speaker 2: best golfer in the world. But I'm starting my card

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Speaker 2: with Xander Schoffley because the odds are too amazing. At

284
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Speaker 2: plus fifteen hundred, is the second man in. His numbers

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00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:51,480
Speaker 2: are almost a carbon copy of Scotti Scheffler's, with better

286
00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:55,200
Speaker 2: scrambling numbers and honestly better off the tegue numbers and

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Speaker 2: bogey avoidance. This is obviously Scotty Scheffler's going to pop

288
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Speaker 2: up number one in every stat model, but Xander Seffley's

289
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Speaker 2: right there next to him in mind.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and Xander's best finish at the Memorial was eighth

291
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Speaker 1: last year. He's had a bunch of top fifteens, but

292
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Speaker 1: hasn't really seriously contended. But he's got the game for it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we've talked about how Xander is a grinder.

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Speaker 1: You want him on the tough courses.

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Speaker 2: This is the one. This is the one right here.

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Speaker 1: This is a good spot for him. So just to

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Speaker 1: go back to Scotty for a second, he before winning

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Speaker 1: last year, had finished third in his two previous Memorials

299
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Speaker 1: before finally breaking through, and he is obviously in fine

300
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Speaker 1: form of late, with two wins in his last three events,

301
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Speaker 1: including the PGA justin Thomas Bo He missed the cut

302
00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,840
Speaker 1: in the PGA, his last event. Doesn't have a real

303
00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:46,040
Speaker 1: great track record at the Memorial, at least not lately.

304
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Speaker 1: He finished fourth back in twenty seventeen and eighth and

305
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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen. Hasn't finished it better than eighteenth in any

306
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Speaker 1: of his last five appearances, a few missed cuts in there.

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Speaker 1: He did finish second when they held the Workday Charity

308
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Speaker 1: Open at Mirfield Village in twenty twenty. That was a

309
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Speaker 1: much different course set up than we typically get for

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Speaker 1: the Memorial. So any interest in JT or the odds

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Speaker 1: just too short.

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00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:13,760
Speaker 2: I just think JT is better on a shorter golf

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Speaker 2: course where wedge play is a key. His off the

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Speaker 2: tea game scares me, and off the tee is super

315
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Speaker 2: important at Memorial at Mierfield Village, you have to hit fairways,

316
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Speaker 2: you have to be more than just a second shot player,

317
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Speaker 2: and that's really been JT this season is when he's

318
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Speaker 2: found a neutral off the t game and short game.

319
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Speaker 2: He's been really good, but when he's been kind of

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Speaker 2: struggling with everything except for approach. We haven't really seen

321
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Speaker 2: the best Justin Thomas this season, and I think this

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Speaker 2: course is too long, too demanding for it to be

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Speaker 2: Justin Thomas's week. It just seems like it's not a

324
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Speaker 2: great course fit based on everything I'm looking at, just

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Speaker 2: the what's important here is it's kind of what it's

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Speaker 2: exactly what Justin Thomas has been struggling with this season.

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Speaker 1: Agreed. Now, Colin Morikawa is a really interesting case. He

328
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Speaker 1: didn't win that Workday Charity Open in twenty twenty again

329
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Speaker 1: much different set up, bought, and then he had the

330
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Speaker 1: two runner up finishes at Mirrfield Village twenty twenty one

331
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Speaker 1: and twenty twenty four. But his form has not been

332
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Speaker 1: great over the last two months. No top tens in

333
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Speaker 1: his last five events. He's outside the top fifty in

334
00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,600
Speaker 1: strokes gained, putting outside the top one hundred in scrambling,

335
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:31,000
Speaker 1: outside the top one point fifty in sanse percentage any

336
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Speaker 1: interest in Colin Morikawa this week?

337
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Speaker 2: Both I went into this expecting to love Colin Morikawa

338
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Speaker 2: and I simply don't. I'm looking at something that I

339
00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:43,920
Speaker 2: haven't seen from him in his whole career scrambling, namely,

340
00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:48,440
Speaker 2: there's seventy one in this field. He's somehow seventy seventh

341
00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:52,960
Speaker 2: in scrambling in this field out of seventy one. Not great,

342
00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:57,200
Speaker 2: and honestly, his putting on bent grass is his best surface.

343
00:17:57,200 --> 00:17:59,320
Speaker 2: He's twenty six in this field putting on bent grass,

344
00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:02,840
Speaker 2: which is a good sign for him, except he's also

345
00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:05,920
Speaker 2: near the bottom of this field in both the one

346
00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:09,360
Speaker 2: seventy five to two hundred and two hundred plus proximity

347
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Speaker 2: buckets on approach, which that's usually the strength of his game.

348
00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,640
Speaker 2: And Colin more Kava of course amazing off the tee.

349
00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:17,359
Speaker 2: He's one of the best t shot players, one of

350
00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:19,600
Speaker 2: the best drivers of the golf ball in the world.

351
00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:22,600
Speaker 2: But if his screen, if his approach game is this

352
00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,360
Speaker 2: bad as it has been the last few weeks and

353
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Speaker 2: as well as his natural I mean a version from

354
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Speaker 2: it to having a strong short game, it's it's scary

355
00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:34,680
Speaker 2: to think that he can get off the tee here

356
00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:38,440
Speaker 2: just fine. But we're worried about Colin Moore Rikava on approach.

357
00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:40,520
Speaker 2: That doesn't sit well with me at all.

358
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Speaker 1: No, that's scary. So Ludwig Oberg finished fifth last year

359
00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:47,200
Speaker 1: in his memorial debut, but he's been in poor form

360
00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:50,800
Speaker 1: in recent months, save for his seventh place finish at

361
00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:53,879
Speaker 1: the Masters. We have to talk about Patrick Cantley bo

362
00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:57,760
Speaker 1: He seems to love Mirfield Village. He's won here twice.

363
00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,320
Speaker 1: He's had two other top fives in a top ten.

364
00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:03,840
Speaker 1: He missed the cut at the PGA, but finished fourth

365
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:07,359
Speaker 1: at the Truest Championship the week before that. What about

366
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:08,960
Speaker 1: can't lay at nineteen to one?

367
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:15,159
Speaker 2: No thanks. I know he's done well here in the past,

368
00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:19,120
Speaker 2: but there have been signs that he's turning the tide.

369
00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:23,640
Speaker 2: He's the worst putter in this entire field, and that's

370
00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:27,399
Speaker 2: not good. We've seen Patrick Cantley struggle with the flat

371
00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,639
Speaker 2: stick all season. It hasn't been pretty. Everywhere else seems

372
00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 2: to be okay. His scrambling's kind of mill the pack.

373
00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:35,880
Speaker 2: His approach game's mill of the pack. He's a really

374
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 2: strong approach player in general, and off the t has

375
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 2: been really good this year. But if you can't make putts,

376
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:45,160
Speaker 2: you're not gonna be able to hold on here. I'm

377
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:47,879
Speaker 2: just I'm afraid of his putting, and I'm afraid of

378
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:51,120
Speaker 2: Oberg's short game in general, just being able to scramble.

379
00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:54,520
Speaker 2: It's been ugly for him. When his ball striking struggles

380
00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:57,800
Speaker 2: like it has the last two months, then what does

381
00:19:57,840 --> 00:19:59,840
Speaker 2: Oberg really have. He's not gonna be able to rec

382
00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,240
Speaker 2: with it by way of his short game, and Patrick

383
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,880
Speaker 2: Cantley isn't going to be able to bail himself out

384
00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:09,240
Speaker 2: with the flat stick because he just hasn't been making

385
00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:10,159
Speaker 2: anything this season.

386
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, now, a couple other guys we should probably mention

387
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:18,359
Speaker 1: Corey Connors. With his great ball striking, you'd think he

388
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,199
Speaker 1: would maybe be a factor at Mierfield Village. He's finished

389
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,159
Speaker 1: top twenty and seven of his last eight events, so

390
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,879
Speaker 1: he's been really steady, but he's never seriously contended at

391
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:30,720
Speaker 1: the Memorial. His best finished was the thirteenth Hideki Matsuyama

392
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,880
Speaker 1: got his first PGA Tour win at Mirfield Village back

393
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,320
Speaker 1: in twenty fourteen and has since finished top ten at

394
00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:40,400
Speaker 1: Mirfield Village three times. But you know, Hedeki's recent form

395
00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,680
Speaker 1: has been pretty ify. Victor Hovland won here in twenty

396
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 1: twenty three, finished fifteenth last year. His forum has been

397
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 1: a mixed bag in twenty twenty five, more bad than good,

398
00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:51,720
Speaker 1: although he did win the vals Bar back in March

399
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 1: and Seewoo Kim. He's kind of a horse for the course.

400
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:58,439
Speaker 1: He's finished top fifteenth at the Memorial in each of

401
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,399
Speaker 1: the last four years. He's also been in pretty decent

402
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 1: form lately, finishing top twenty in four of his last

403
00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 1: six events. All right, let's take a look at more

404
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,400
Speaker 1: odds unless bo any thoughts on any of those guys

405
00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 1: or those guys all passes.

406
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,679
Speaker 2: No, you mentioned two guys that I'm betting on, and

407
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:20,080
Speaker 2: I'll start with Hideki Matsiama. This is exactly the type

408
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 2: of courtse I picture him doing very well on. He's

409
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:26,440
Speaker 2: a grinder, he's got an amazing short game, and as

410
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 2: far as golf courses where we see him excel on approach,

411
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:33,639
Speaker 2: it's when they're longer approach distances. So I do have

412
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 2: Hideki Matsiyama amazing odds plus thirty five hundred's that's ooh.

413
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 2: I love all of that because Hideki when he struggles,

414
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 2: he's he's almost just catatonic. He's just completely out of it.

415
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 2: But sometimes he feels like he's struggling and he's still

416
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 2: right in this thing, and I think that he could

417
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,880
Speaker 2: be a couple strokes back and still be right there

418
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 2: waiting for somebody to trip up. And we're going to

419
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 2: see some lead changes this week. It's this is the

420
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:00,920
Speaker 2: kind of tournament with a lot of drama, a lot

421
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:04,120
Speaker 2: of guys making mistakes, a lot of guys making amazing

422
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:09,199
Speaker 2: shots to to vault themselves on tough golf conditions. I

423
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,360
Speaker 2: think the Hideki Matsiyama is exactly the player that I'm

424
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:14,679
Speaker 2: looking for at plus thirty five hundred, and the other

425
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 2: one Seewoo Kim. It's it's just a great fit. He's

426
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:22,120
Speaker 2: got lots of great experience here and when it comes

427
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,439
Speaker 2: to driving distance, he doesn't have it. But he's a

428
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 2: really accurate player off the tee, and he's a really

429
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:30,359
Speaker 2: good long iron approach player, and he happens to be

430
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,399
Speaker 2: riding a pretty hot putter this season. So give me

431
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 2: Seawou on four recent form and past form at this

432
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 2: golf course at plus four thousand. That's really nice. And

433
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 2: there's no mystery why Corey Connors hasn't done well here.

434
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 2: He has the worst around the green game in this field,

435
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:52,640
Speaker 2: eightieth out of seventy one. Not great, Bob, Yeah.

436
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 1: Not great. Let's look at more odds. We've got Tony Finow,

437
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 1: Sam Burns and Matt Fitzpatrick at plus forty five hundred,

438
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,959
Speaker 1: Sung J Keegan Bradley and Russell Henley are plus five thousand.

439
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 1: Robert McIntyre, Maverick McNeely, Harris English and Ben Griffin are

440
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 1: plus six thousand, Adam Scott is plus seven thousand, and

441
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 1: at plus seventy five hundred, we have a big group

442
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 1: that includes Aaron Raye, Wyndham Clark, Ricky Fowler, JT. Post In,

443
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:21,119
Speaker 1: JJ Spawn, Ben On and Alex Norin. Anyone you like

444
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 1: from this group, Well, it's.

445
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 2: Not a good group. I do have some interest. I'm

446
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:30,679
Speaker 2: gonna be digging a little deeper at Ricky Fowler because

447
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:32,880
Speaker 2: of what he did this last week in a very

448
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 2: similar setup, just a longer course, which I think plays

449
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 2: better into Ricky Fowler's game. He's not the best wedge player,

450
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 2: but he showed up off the tee at Colonial and

451
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 2: that gave me a lot of confidence that his game

452
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 2: is starting to turn around. I think Ricky Fowler warrants

453
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 2: a second look and then no. Thanks on Tony fen Now.

454
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 2: I like that he did well last week, but he's

455
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,919
Speaker 2: also another guy with no short game to speak of.

456
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 2: And this is not the kind of track I want

457
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 2: to put that to the test. It's you mentioned Matt

458
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 2: Fitzpatrick's that's an interesting one too. Is the quintessential grinder.

459
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 2: Can he make enough birdies on the par fives? That

460
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:20,399
Speaker 2: worries me because par five scoring is everything. If you

461
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 2: want to break par on this golf course, you have

462
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 2: to do it on those four par fives. It's it's

463
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 2: gonna be interesting to see if Fitzpatrick can make hay

464
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 2: when he's presented those chances.

465
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, Fitzpatrick's been in pretty good form lately. He's finished

466
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:38,200
Speaker 1: eighth or did finish eighth at the PGA, and he's

467
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,199
Speaker 1: finished top ten at the Memorial in each of the

468
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 1: last two years. You mentioned Fouler. His course history at

469
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 1: Mirfield Village has been pretty solid. But I'm with you

470
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 1: on final sung JM as a couple of top tens

471
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:52,919
Speaker 1: here in the last three years, but he ranks one

472
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy fourth in strokes gain on approach bo

473
00:24:56,320 --> 00:25:00,920
Speaker 1: that would seem to not bode well at Mirrorfield Village.

474
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 1: And then I don't know how you feel about debutants

475
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,679
Speaker 1: at the Memorial, like Andrew Novak's been hot lately. Just

476
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 1: finished eleventh with the Charles Schwab challenge. I just I

477
00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 1: can't take a first time or here ball.

478
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, if I was to take one, it would be

479
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:20,439
Speaker 2: probably Novak or maybe like Harris English or something. But

480
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:24,439
Speaker 2: they've been here before. Yeah, it's really tough for debutantes

481
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 2: here because the speed of those greens is real. If

482
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:30,959
Speaker 2: you thought Colonial was fast, Mirefield Village is even faster,

483
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:34,360
Speaker 2: and their bigger green complexes, so you have to actually

484
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 2: aim for smaller targets a lot like Augusta National. Big

485
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,720
Speaker 2: greens run fast and you just don't want to be

486
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:41,639
Speaker 2: on the wrong side of it.

487
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 1: Very true. What about long shots? Anyone at eighty to

488
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: one or longer odds who interest you?

489
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 2: I don't like betting long shots here so much, but

490
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 2: I did find a nice line on Taylor Pendrith at

491
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 2: eighty to one. That's a nice one. Very good off

492
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 2: the t player, very good long and mid iron approach

493
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 2: player is scrambling, has been very solid this season. So

494
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,359
Speaker 2: I will be taking a stab at Taylor Pendrith again,

495
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:10,399
Speaker 2: despite all the history behind doing that where he just

496
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 2: never hits for me, I'm gonna do it again. And

497
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 2: then at one hundred to one. I ended up seeing

498
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 2: a very surprising name in the top ten of my model,

499
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:23,239
Speaker 2: and that's Sam Stevens. Sam Stevens is no worse than

500
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:25,920
Speaker 2: fifty first in any category, and it was a lower

501
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 2: weighted category in my model. He's number two in scrambling

502
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,640
Speaker 2: in this entire field, number four in bogie avoidance. He's

503
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 2: a really good par five scorer and top ten in

504
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 2: short game. So I think Sam Stevens warrants one hundred

505
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 2: to one bet probably do a top twenty on that

506
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 2: one as well.

507
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:45,880
Speaker 1: All right, both, So who's on your betting card as

508
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 1: of now?

509
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 2: I have Xander Schaffli fifteen to one, Hideki Matsuyama thirty

510
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 2: five to one, Sebu Kim forty to one, Taylor Pendrith

511
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,439
Speaker 2: eighty to one, and Sam Stevens at one hundred to one.

512
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 1: I'm keeping a light just because the early odds only

513
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 1: gave us out rights. Really have been making my only

514
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 1: money the last few weeks on top twenties and we

515
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 1: don't get those odds, so I can't hit any of those.

516
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 1: But as of now, Patrick Cantley, I am going to

517
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 1: play him at plus at nineteen to one. I'm gonna

518
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 1: play Hideki right with you, Bo. I love him at

519
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 1: thirty five to one. Now for our one and doune picks.

520
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:22,199
Speaker 1: At the Charles Schwab Challenge, BO had Michael Kim. He

521
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 1: tied for sixteenth, fueled by a final round sixty seven

522
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,359
Speaker 1: that earned BO one hundred and forty one hundred and

523
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 1: twenty five dollars. I had Maverick McNeely. He missed the

524
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 1: cut and earned me a big fat goose egg. BO

525
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 1: continues to throttle me in the one and done. He

526
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 1: has more than doubled me up and keeps adding to

527
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 1: his lead. But I'm up first this week. Bo. The

528
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 1: thing is so many guys I would like to play

529
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 1: here I have used already, such as Hideki, Matsuyama and

530
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 1: Seawoo Cam. So despite the recent shaky form, I have

531
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 1: to go with Colin Morrikawan. Hope he gets the ball

532
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 1: striking going again this week at a course where he's

533
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 1: fared well in the past. Asked, who are you going

534
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 1: to take? Bo?

535
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 2: I'm going to take Zanderschoffley to keep his cut streak

536
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 2: alive and to make me a few million dollars this week.

537
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 1: And that's all for this week's betting Pros PGA Podcast.

538
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 1: Come join us again next week when we will be

539
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 1: previewing the Canadian Open, the final tune up before the

540
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 1: US Open. Until then, so long everyone.

541
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

542
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 3: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

543
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 3: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

544
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:34,960
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545
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:38,720
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546
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:52,720
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