1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Cockley and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,240 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 2: Here in Washington, d C. 7 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 3: It's a place. 8 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 4: I haven't actually been to the district much in the 9 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:32,160 Speaker 4: last six months. I've been hanging out in the suburbs. 10 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 4: I think Joe actually the is Raeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyah, 11 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 4: who may have made more trips to the district of 12 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:39,959 Speaker 4: Columbia than I have in the last the last happy year. 13 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:40,720 Speaker 3: He's going to be here. 14 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 2: Seventh during the Trump administrations. 15 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:45,880 Speaker 5: Remark today seventh. We didn't really see him on the 16 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 5: last one. We may not see him today, which is interesting. 17 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 5: They're talking about some pretty critical stuff here with potential 18 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 5: strikes against Iran. Gaza of course is on the agenda 19 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 5: as well, but we didn't even see him go on 20 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 5: the front door, Kaylee. 21 00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 3: And it'll be curious to see how long they talk. 22 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, and if we learn anything about what exactly they discuss. 23 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 4: As we know Israel may be singing a bit of 24 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 4: a different tune than President Trump himself as to what 25 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 4: they'd like to see from Iran and it's nuclear and 26 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 4: ballistic missile program specifically. 27 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:12,559 Speaker 3: That's true. 28 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 5: Obviously we've heard from Iran wanting to sort of narrow 29 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:19,679 Speaker 5: these talks around nuke's. But Israel is deeply concerned about 30 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 5: progress being made on its ballistic missile program, and I'm 31 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:24,400 Speaker 5: sure he'll be urging the President to get into that. 32 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 5: But also having claimed that their nuclear program had been 33 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:30,919 Speaker 5: totally obliterated, the President today has to face the Israeli 34 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,399 Speaker 5: Prime Minister who wants him to acknowledge the fact that 35 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 5: they are making progress on rebuilding it. 36 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, and let alone, of course, progress on rebuilding Gaza 37 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 4: or reaching the next phase of the ceasefire agreement. 38 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:41,320 Speaker 3: There. 39 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 2: There's still an open question mark in that regard to 40 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 2: that's for sure. 41 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,960 Speaker 5: Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall is whe Us Washington correspondent live from 42 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 5: the North lawn of the White House where all this 43 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 5: is happening. Tyler, do we expect to see these two 44 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 5: gentlemen later today? 45 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 6: Well, Joe, at this point, nothing remains open to the press, 46 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 6: perhaps underscoring the sensitivity of these discussions. As you and 47 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 6: Kayley were just outline, we know Iran is at the 48 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 6: top of the agenda amid of reports that Israeli Prime 49 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 6: Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is going to present new intelligence to 50 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:12,680 Speaker 6: President Trump regarding Iran's military capabilities. Now, ultimately, we know 51 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 6: that this meeting this week comes after the Israeli Prime 52 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 6: Minister had met in Jerusalem last week with Special En 53 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,639 Speaker 6: Voice Steed Whitcoff and the President's son in law, Jared Kushner, 54 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 6: the two that are leading the now bilateral negotiations between 55 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,359 Speaker 6: the US and Iran, which kicked off last Friday, and 56 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 6: both sides characterized as relatively positive and said that they're 57 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:37,360 Speaker 6: going to have future talks, likely next week when it 58 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 6: comes to the second round. But going into the discussions, 59 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 6: we know that there was sort of this shifting of 60 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 6: parameters around what the talks would revolve around. Iran wanted 61 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 6: them to be bilateral and only focused on their nuclear program. 62 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 6: But part of the Israeli Prime Minister's goal here today, 63 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 6: it's our understanding, is to press President Trump to make 64 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,800 Speaker 6: sure that those talks expand to other key issues for 65 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,519 Speaker 6: Israel and the United States as we've repeatedly heard here 66 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:07,240 Speaker 6: from top administration officials. They want to also discuss Iron's 67 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:11,359 Speaker 6: ballistic missile program as well as its support for proxy 68 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 6: militia groups in the region, and the US actually wants 69 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 6: to bring in some other regional partners to these discussions, 70 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 6: which officials say could help ultimately bolster the potential that 71 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 6: a longer lasting deal could remain in place. At the moment, 72 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 6: President Trump maintains diplomacy is on the table, but Joe 73 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 6: and Keiley, as you well know, our own analysts Bloomberg 74 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 6: Economics have spoken about the high likelihood that we could 75 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 6: ultimately see military strikes, particularly as President Trump just yesterday 76 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 6: floated the idea that he could send a second armada 77 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 6: to the region to bolster what is already a very 78 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 6: large presence of US military assets in the Arabian Sea. 79 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, could be bringing in another carrier potentially. We'll see 80 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 4: whether or not we get more commentary from the President 81 00:03:57,480 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 4: in that regard, or anything at all that he might 82 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 4: about his meeting with Nettan Yahoo today Tyler. So far today, though, 83 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 4: the only thing we've directly heard from the President on 84 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 4: true social at least is praise for the jobs report. 85 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 4: We got on this Wednesday. He said, great jobs numbers 86 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 4: far greater than expected. 87 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 2: No surprise. 88 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:16,479 Speaker 4: Perhaps at the White House is trying to focus exclusively 89 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:17,600 Speaker 4: on the positive. 90 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 2: Here, right, No surprise there, Kiley. 91 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 6: Even as this report showed revisions to last year, there 92 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 6: was this market slowdown in hiring. President Trump also in 93 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:30,479 Speaker 6: that post calling for lower interest rates, even as we 94 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 6: know that traders are now pushing back bets for a 95 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:35,840 Speaker 6: FED rate cut. So there's a lot that the administration 96 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:37,599 Speaker 6: is going to try to pull out of this report. 97 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:40,919 Speaker 6: They are focused on that upside surprise. It was interesting 98 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 6: to hear officials ahead of this report, including the NEC 99 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:46,160 Speaker 6: director Kevin Hassett, as well as the Senior Trade Counselor 100 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 6: Peter Navarro, tried to actually downplay expectation, saying that any 101 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 6: weakness that may come is ultimately due to shifting population 102 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 6: changes in the president's deportation policies. I've heard a few 103 00:04:56,960 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 6: officials out this morning blaming any weakness on the prior administration. 104 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,719 Speaker 6: Because this White House right now is really playing defense 105 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:06,040 Speaker 6: when it comes to the economy as we head into 106 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:08,360 Speaker 6: the midterm elections. I'd point you to a new pull 107 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 6: out just this week from Gallup that shows fifty percent 108 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 6: of US adults are concerned about unemployment going up in 109 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 6: the next six months and view the economy, but in 110 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:21,600 Speaker 6: particular the labor market negatively. So there's going to be 111 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,280 Speaker 6: a lot to watch here as we head in to November. 112 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:26,719 Speaker 6: But as you all know, this administration is really pushing 113 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:32,239 Speaker 6: those domestic manufacturing policies. In this report, we did see 114 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 6: that factory jobs increased for the first time since late 115 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 6: twenty twenty four, something that White House officials here have 116 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 6: been pushing pretty strongly. 117 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 4: All right, Bloomberg, Tyler Kendall live on the North line 118 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:46,159 Speaker 4: at the White House, thank you so much. And standing 119 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:48,480 Speaker 4: in the spot where Tyler was standing just now earlier 120 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 4: this morning was actually the acting share of the White 121 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 4: House Council of Economic Advisors, Pierriarrad, who spoke with Bloomberg 122 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 4: earlier today about these jobs numbers. 123 00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 2: This is how he characterized the figures. 124 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 7: Not only is it total jobs that are up above expectations, 125 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,799 Speaker 7: it's also private sector jobs that are at one hundred 126 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,840 Speaker 7: and seventy thousand, so more than one hundred and sixty thousand, 127 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 7: which are more than double double expectations. I think the 128 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 7: way to think about the way we are thinking about 129 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 7: it is if you look at demographic changes as well 130 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:20,479 Speaker 7: as the big reduction in immigration relative to in particularly 131 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 7: illegal immigration, relative to what was happening under the Biden administration, 132 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 7: those two factors should lead you to lower brake evens. 133 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:35,559 Speaker 4: And joining us now for another analysis perhaps is Katy Richards, 134 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 4: who's here with us in our Washington, d C. 135 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 2: Studio. 136 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 4: She's senior strategic advisor at the Groundwork Collaborative, also former 137 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 4: official at the Treasury Department under the Biden administration. 138 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 2: Thanks for being with us on Bloomberg TV and ThReD. 139 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 8: Good to see you again, Kitty. 140 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:51,040 Speaker 4: When we consider the first part of what he had 141 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 4: to say there this notion that jobs were double what 142 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 4: the average expectation was, we did see a lower than 143 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 4: expected unemployment rate even as labor force participation was picking up. 144 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:02,599 Speaker 4: That is one way you could view and characterize this report. 145 00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 4: The other is, of course, look at the revisions, look 146 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:09,160 Speaker 4: at how gains are kind of exclusively in sectors like healthcare. 147 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 2: How do you look at it today? 148 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 8: That's right. 149 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 9: I do feel like focusing on the revisions is important, 150 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 9: and I don't want to take away from the fact 151 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 9: that we beat expectations on the labor market for January, 152 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 9: although I do think that it's important to recall that 153 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 9: expectations were quite low. 154 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 3: So the revisions that. 155 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 9: The BLS announced led to a total net job game 156 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 9: for last year of one hundred and eighty one thousand jobs. 157 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 8: That is a. 158 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 9: Number that we used to see as a month over 159 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 9: month gain on a pretty regular basis, and in fact, 160 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 9: in the ten years prior to last year, the average 161 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 9: job gain over the year was about one point nine million. 162 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 2: Jobs a year. 163 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 3: So what we've seen is this. 164 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 9: Very anemic job growth. And you know, I was here 165 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 9: last year during some of these prints, and it was 166 00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 9: already concerning what was happening with unemployment rate, what was 167 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 9: happening with the pace of hires and firing, And to 168 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 9: then see that actually we were way off and the 169 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 9: labor market was much softer than it appeared, I think 170 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:15,320 Speaker 9: is troubling. Though it does kind of align with some 171 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:18,280 Speaker 9: of the anecdotes that we've been hearing from job seekers 172 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 9: who say it's difficult to find a job. We're seeing 173 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 9: those jobs numbers start to look a little bit more 174 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 9: like that soft labor market that people were experiencing. 175 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 5: Interesting Kitty but the President says, the golden age of 176 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:32,439 Speaker 5: America is upon us. 177 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 3: So when do the job start showing up? 178 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:36,320 Speaker 8: I think that's a great question. 179 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 9: And you know, Kaylee, you mentioned that what we saw 180 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:43,200 Speaker 9: in the revisions and in the monthly data is increasingly 181 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 9: what job growth there is is driven by the healthcare 182 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 9: sector specifically, and in fact, you know, last year, outside 183 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:52,839 Speaker 9: of healthcare, there was actually a net reduction in jobs 184 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 9: across the economy. And thinking about, you know, where are 185 00:08:57,120 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 9: those healthcare jobs? 186 00:08:58,240 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 8: Are they good jobs? 187 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:01,679 Speaker 9: Are they going to continue to deliver, especially given that 188 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 9: the President has passed into law really large healthcare cuts 189 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 9: that are going to start coming down the pike over 190 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 9: the next few years, and families are having to face 191 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 9: really high healthcare premiums. You know, thinking about we see 192 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 9: GDP growth continuing, and people are often very focused on 193 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 9: is this a sign of a recession? Are we at 194 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:27,080 Speaker 9: a tipping point? But I think the bigger question is 195 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 9: how is the economy performing for real people? And so 196 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 9: when we see GDP growth that is driven to an 197 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 9: outsize extent by, for example, the building and stocking with 198 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 9: materials of data centers for AI, one way to look 199 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 9: at that is that AI is driving GDP growth, but 200 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 9: is it driving jobs, is it driving increases in wages 201 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 9: or is it just sort of an accounting fact that 202 00:09:56,679 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 9: we have a lot being spent on computers. So really 203 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:03,959 Speaker 9: thinking about how this impacts workers and the day to 204 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 9: day And we might not be in a recessionary environment, 205 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 9: but you can still have a softening labor market that's 206 00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:13,120 Speaker 9: going to hold down wages, going to make it hard, 207 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 9: especially for new graduates and other entrants into the labor 208 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 9: market to get a job that can pay the bills well. 209 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:22,440 Speaker 4: And I'm sure the Fed officials there are considering some 210 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 4: of those very same questions you were asking about what 211 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 4: dynamics are actually at play here, both when it comes 212 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 4: to growth overall and in the labor market. So, if 213 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 4: you're sitting in the Federal Reserve right now, you look 214 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 4: at all this data before you, is it supporting the 215 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 4: idea that we need looser policy, that more cuts should 216 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 4: be coming or not. 217 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:39,560 Speaker 9: I think it's a complicated question for the FED to 218 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 9: deal with because, of course inflation remains elevated, and the 219 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 9: Fed is very concerned about signaling to the markets that 220 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 9: they are going to keep inflation under control and bring 221 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 9: it back down you know, Jerome Powell has reiterated on 222 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 9: multiple occasions that the fed's target rate is still two 223 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 9: percent and we're all above that, and so they are 224 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 9: balancing those equities. I do think that, you know, the 225 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 9: President's advocacy is a little bit of a double edged sword. 226 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 9: As you were pointing out, he's at the same time 227 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 9: saying that this was incredibly strong labor market conditions that 228 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:17,520 Speaker 9: we're seeing, and also. 229 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 2: We should cut interest rates. 230 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 9: I think there are also issues with the you know, 231 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:25,560 Speaker 9: the new nominee for the FED Board of Governors for 232 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:30,160 Speaker 9: the FED chair is really being received as mostly a 233 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 9: political appointment who will do what the President says or 234 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:37,440 Speaker 9: will try to. I think that other members of the 235 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:41,200 Speaker 9: FED Board of Governors are going to be concerned about 236 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 9: maintaining a posture of neutrality and of independence. And it's 237 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 9: all going to be really difficult as it plays out. 238 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 9: And I'll be watching along with you when I. 239 00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:56,640 Speaker 5: Get back to this impact of AI on the job market, 240 00:11:56,679 --> 00:12:00,200 Speaker 5: because it's impossible to quantify right now. Elon Musk just 241 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 5: told a podcast that created this vision of buildings twenty 242 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:10,439 Speaker 5: thirty stories tall, filled with humans doing calculations that. 243 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:12,439 Speaker 3: Will soon be replaced by a laptop. 244 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 5: How if you can't forecast that, how does the FED 245 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 5: forecast that? How do you have any estimate for where 246 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:20,040 Speaker 5: we're going? 247 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:23,560 Speaker 9: I think that we are in a little bit uncharted 248 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 9: territory in some ways. 249 00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:27,680 Speaker 3: But also this isn't the first. 250 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:30,680 Speaker 9: Time that we've had a potentially disruptive technology enter the scene, 251 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:34,079 Speaker 9: and I think it's important to keep our wits about 252 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 9: us as we think about as we measure what we 253 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 9: think of Elon Musk's predictions versus what we're actually seeing 254 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 9: in the labor market. 255 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 5: Well, I could point you to anthropic and it only 256 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 5: gets worse from here in some cases by the way 257 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 5: that we'll all be replaced. At some point, you're going 258 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:52,720 Speaker 5: to have two AI Kayley and Joe's sitting here with 259 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 5: Kittie Richards. 260 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:56,319 Speaker 9: I mean, one thing that I'd say is that what 261 00:12:56,360 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 9: we know from the history of technology adoption is that 262 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:05,440 Speaker 9: it's really up to us as a society to decide 263 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 9: whether technologies like AI are used to provide more to Americans, 264 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:18,319 Speaker 9: to provide more you know, leisure, more productivity, games that 265 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 9: lead to higher wages, support people in their jobs, or 266 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 9: whether things just kind of get worse and worse and 267 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 9: cost cutting increases, and people are deskilled, people's jobs are 268 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 9: de skilled. These are policy choices that we really have 269 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 9: to make. And I think if we just let the 270 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:42,440 Speaker 9: sort of techno optimists who also stand to make another 271 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 9: trillion dollars if things go their way, if we let 272 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 9: them entirely set the agenda we're going to, we're going 273 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:50,960 Speaker 9: to see the worst possible. 274 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:54,319 Speaker 5: If I was wearing a T shirt that said Optimism Prime, 275 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 5: it's funny. 276 00:13:56,880 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 10: Optimism for whom you could probably like do a whole 277 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 10: thing on Elon Musk and the various T shirts, remember 278 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 10: the apparel he had early on in the early days 279 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:07,560 Speaker 10: of this administration. 280 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:09,320 Speaker 4: Just quickly, Katy, before we let you go. As we're 281 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:13,199 Speaker 4: approaching tax refunds. We are in tax season now, and 282 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 4: the argument Republicans are making is Americans are about to 283 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 4: get a way bigger refund than they expect, and this 284 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 4: is going to be juice for the economy given everything 285 00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:23,720 Speaker 4: that we're seeing with the cost inflation, with wages not 286 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 4: necessarily keeping up as you were alluding to, Should we 287 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:29,520 Speaker 4: expect that's going to be funneled back into consumption, consumer 288 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 4: spending or is that literally just assistance in making ends 289 00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 4: meet well. 290 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 9: Unfortunately for the Republicans making this argument, I think that 291 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 9: given how much they've hyped up the effects of their 292 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 9: tax policies, Americans might be expecting a significantly larger refund 293 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 9: than they are going to get because remember that the 294 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 9: vast majority of the Republicans tax bill flowed to the 295 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 9: wealthy and corporations, and so your typical American family did 296 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 9: not have much to gain there. What they have seen, unfortunately, 297 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:01,840 Speaker 9: is the skyrocketing healthcare premium, partly because of the expiration 298 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:05,080 Speaker 9: of the ACA subsidies. And what they're going to see 299 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 9: out of the One beautiful, big, beautiful Bill Act is 300 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 9: Medicaid cuts that are already starting to impact hospitals and 301 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 9: state budgets around the country. 302 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 5: Great to have Kitty Richards back with us in studio. 303 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:18,120 Speaker 5: We never got to fifteen percent growth. We have so 304 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 5: much more to talk about. Don't be a stranger Senior 305 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 5: strategic advisor, the groundwork, collaborative and great insights from Kitty Richards. 306 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 5: Thank you as always for the conversation. I'm Joe Matthew 307 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 5: alongside Kaylie Lines and Washington. We'll assemble our political panel 308 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 5: next only here on balance of Power on Bloomberg TV 309 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:36,560 Speaker 5: and Radio. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll 310 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 5: have much more coming up after this. 311 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketches 312 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple 313 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 1: Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 314 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 315 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 316 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 4: Joe and I here in Washington are keeping an eye 317 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 4: on the White House as well as on Capitol Hill 318 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 4: today and every day, and there will be some action 319 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:11,280 Speaker 4: on Capitol Hill potentially later this evening, specifically when it 320 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 4: comes to a vote in the House of Representatives on 321 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 4: the President's tariff's policy Tariff's on Canada specifically, it's a 322 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 4: resolution that has been put forward by Democratic Congressman Gregory 323 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:25,320 Speaker 4: Meeks of New York that will now see a vote, 324 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 4: a vote forced despite the attempts of the House Speaker 325 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 4: Mike Johnson to make sure that that did not happen, 326 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:32,680 Speaker 4: putting some of his vulnerable members in the majority in 327 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 4: a tricky position of going on the record as to 328 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 4: whether or not they support these policies. Because Speaker Johnson, 329 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:39,920 Speaker 4: despite knowing that he had a very thin majority in 330 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 4: the math was going to be hard, did try to 331 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,280 Speaker 4: pass a rule yesterday, Joe that would have seen effectively 332 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 4: an extension of the ban of putting forward tariff related 333 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 4: resolutions like this on the House floor, and three Republicans 334 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 4: told the Speaker and the President, we're not with you 335 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 4: on this one. 336 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 3: That's true. 337 00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:58,480 Speaker 5: Not all the names surprising, but this is getting back 338 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 5: to why margins matter here too, U seventeen, two fourteen. 339 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 5: The speakers seen this movie a lot of times. All right, 340 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 5: Tom Massey of Kentucky, I know you're not surprised. Add 341 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:11,080 Speaker 5: Kevin Kylie of California, Don Bacon of Nebraska, and it's 342 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:13,200 Speaker 5: a fail. The question is, and we'll have to pose 343 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 5: this to the panel, is this a watershed moment or 344 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 5: just a jail break of three members? 345 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,040 Speaker 4: Well, and when we consider the composition of those three members, yes, 346 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 4: Bacon's retiring MASSI, as you point out, not unusual to 347 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 4: break with the party. Kevin Kylie, though, could potentially be 348 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 4: representative of an entire group of Republicans, those who are 349 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:32,959 Speaker 4: in swing districts, having tough seats to defend, who have 350 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:34,959 Speaker 4: to consider these policies and what they mean for their 351 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,560 Speaker 4: constituencies a bit more carefully, so could there be more 352 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 4: Kevin Kylie's coming out of the woodwork on actual tariff resolution? 353 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:44,400 Speaker 5: Y outline that perfectly, And this is what Democrats are hoping, 354 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:46,159 Speaker 5: because they're going to have a series of votes like 355 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:48,440 Speaker 5: the one tonight with Meeks on Canada to try to 356 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 5: put Republicans on the record, knowing that this won't likely 357 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 5: become law. The President's going to veto it, but a 358 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:55,080 Speaker 5: lot of political ads can be made in the meantime. 359 00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:57,359 Speaker 5: We're going to find out who's worried about tariffs and 360 00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 5: who is worried about Trump. Let's assemble our panel for 361 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 5: their take on this. Bloeberg Politics contributors Genie Schanzeno and 362 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:05,920 Speaker 5: Rick Davis are with us. Genie is our democratic analyst 363 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 5: and democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. 364 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 5: Rick a partner at Stone Court Capital, are republican strategist. 365 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,119 Speaker 5: How are you reading these three, Rick, knowing that the 366 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:19,399 Speaker 5: Senate has already voted against Donald Trump's teriff regime? Is 367 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 5: this in fact a rebuke? Did the President find the 368 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 5: line or are we making too much out of this. 369 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:26,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Kayley. 370 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 11: Nailed it with sort of the various motivations, although I 371 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:32,359 Speaker 11: would say Kevin Kylee, I mean, he actually doesn't have 372 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 11: a district. His was wiped out with Proposition fifty, the 373 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,160 Speaker 11: redistrict thing, So he's out there one in a round 374 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 11: try and figure out where he's going to run for 375 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:42,440 Speaker 11: a reelection. But he does plan to run for reelection. 376 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 11: But he does represent I would say, almost the majority 377 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 11: of the Republican Caucus and the House of Representatives who 378 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:54,359 Speaker 11: are very offended that the President has usurped their Article 379 00:18:54,440 --> 00:19:01,639 Speaker 11: one constitutional responsibility to make tariffs. And so if you 380 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:05,440 Speaker 11: needed four votes and not just the three that you got, 381 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 11: would you have gotten another Republican Probably? And I would 382 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 11: say too with this one, this goes right to the 383 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:16,159 Speaker 11: White House. I mean, yeah, we like to see the 384 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:19,680 Speaker 11: speaker deliver the votes. But the White House said, you 385 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 11: know what, this is on us. We're going to make 386 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,560 Speaker 11: this happen. We're going to put the pressure on these guys. 387 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 11: And so the White House Ledge Office was all over 388 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:31,440 Speaker 11: this thing. And this is a huge loss for Trump. 389 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:35,960 Speaker 11: It's his first big loss legislatively where he thought he 390 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 11: could actually win. 391 00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 3: And so is this a thing of the future. Maybe 392 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 3: a lot of these guys. 393 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 11: Are from districts that are not going to be easy 394 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,920 Speaker 11: to win reelection in in a bad cycle year, and 395 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:49,600 Speaker 11: I wouldn't be surprised to see more jail breaks in 396 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:50,119 Speaker 11: that regard. 397 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:53,879 Speaker 4: Well, So when we consider the potential scope and scale 398 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:57,199 Speaker 4: of said jail breaks, Jeannie Rickchis suggested it might be 399 00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,680 Speaker 4: a majority of the Republican Conference in the House of 400 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,200 Speaker 4: Uppers and if that actually disapproves or at least wants 401 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 4: the Congressional authority to be the one that matters on tariffs. 402 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 4: Are we wrong in assuming that a two thirds majority 403 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 4: veto proof majority could actually be present or not be 404 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:14,120 Speaker 4: present on this issue. 405 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:16,879 Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean, this is one of the there's so 406 00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:20,119 Speaker 12: many confounding things about what happened last night. To me, 407 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 12: Number one, if this passed Congress, the President was going 408 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:26,120 Speaker 12: to veto. 409 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:29,160 Speaker 8: It, and it was going to say. It's hard for me. 410 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 12: To imagine he wouldn't survive that veto. 411 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 8: But you know, setting that aside, we. 412 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:38,439 Speaker 12: Knew very clearly because all three of these individuals forecast 413 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 12: that they were not going to vote for this thing. 414 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:44,040 Speaker 12: So Mike Johnson knew it. The White House should have 415 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:47,200 Speaker 12: known it, and yet they let it go forward as 416 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:50,160 Speaker 12: if it wasn't going to be a big loss for them, 417 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:53,600 Speaker 12: As opposed to what you would think a normal White 418 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:57,880 Speaker 12: House would do. Is you are facing a very difficult 419 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 12: election year in just nine months from yesterday. Let your 420 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 12: Republican members in these swing districts, these purple districts, who 421 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:08,240 Speaker 12: are trying desperately. 422 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 3: To win, give them a little a little. 423 00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:14,439 Speaker 12: Latitude to go against you on something that most Republicans 424 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 12: don't support, which is tariffs and taxes. But instead they 425 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,159 Speaker 12: want to keep everybody together. And you know, to me, 426 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 12: this seems like the same thing we see Pam Bondy 427 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 12: doing in the DOJ. Mike Johnson is playing to an 428 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 12: audience of one. You go to the DOJ, try for 429 00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:33,679 Speaker 12: indictments you know you're never going to get. You go 430 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 12: to the floor, try to vote, try for votes you're 431 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:38,119 Speaker 12: never going to get, and then say to Donald Trump, 432 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:39,160 Speaker 12: oh listen, I tried. 433 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 2: Can't blame me. 434 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:42,399 Speaker 12: Look at the Grand jurors or look at Tom Massey. 435 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 12: If you're upset. I mean, I think that's what's going 436 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,920 Speaker 12: on here. But it makes no sense politically or strategically 437 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,679 Speaker 12: for these Republicans or for this White House. 438 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 5: Well, I'll tell you it also did not make sense, apparently, 439 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 5: do a grand jury to indict the six Democratic members 440 00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:01,040 Speaker 5: of Congress who urged members of the military in a 441 00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,360 Speaker 5: video that came out some weeks ago. Now we've talked 442 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 5: about it, to not follow unlawful orders. This is when 443 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 5: we were busy blowing up alleged drug boats coming out 444 00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:14,440 Speaker 5: of Venezuela. And you remember this video, Alissa Slotkin, Mark Kelly, 445 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 5: and others. 446 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 3: Here's a little refresher. This administration is pitting our uniform military. 447 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 2: And intelligence community professionals. 448 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:25,199 Speaker 3: Against American citizens like us. You all swore an oath to. 449 00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:27,160 Speaker 2: Protect anything this constitution. 450 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,480 Speaker 7: Right now, the threats to our constitution aren't just coming 451 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,160 Speaker 7: from road, but from right here at home. 452 00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 11: Our laws are clear, you can refuse illegal orders. 453 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:41,600 Speaker 5: That was called sedition by the president of this grand 454 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:46,439 Speaker 5: jury decided that this was not a case. They failed 455 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 5: to secure the indictment here despite the better intentions of 456 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,160 Speaker 5: the Attorney General. This is something that came up in 457 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,880 Speaker 5: Pam Bondi's testimony earlier. 458 00:22:57,600 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 3: Rick, what do you make of this? 459 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:00,400 Speaker 5: I know that Mark Kelly is still in some hot 460 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:03,720 Speaker 5: water here with Pete Hegseth specifically. But as far as 461 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:06,439 Speaker 5: these other members go, is this a good day for 462 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,359 Speaker 5: the constitution? If you read the quote from Jason Crow, 463 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:12,120 Speaker 5: the Democrat from Colorado who we saw there, I can't 464 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:13,000 Speaker 5: even read it on the air. 465 00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 3: I'll do my best. 466 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,159 Speaker 5: If these efforts think they're going to intimidate us and 467 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:19,080 Speaker 5: threaten and bully me in the silence, they have another 468 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:19,679 Speaker 5: thing coming. 469 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:23,120 Speaker 3: Rick. This is clearly a bridge too far. What's the recourse? 470 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,240 Speaker 11: Are you baiting me to do something I shouldn't do 471 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:30,719 Speaker 11: on air? No, I wouldn't look. I mean, this is 472 00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 11: this is the most confounding thing I've ever seen. First 473 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 11: of all, it was a total political stunt by these 474 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,880 Speaker 11: six Democrats to do that video. I mean, when does 475 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:41,399 Speaker 11: anybody do a video to talk writ large to a 476 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 11: million uniform service personnel. I mean, come on. And but 477 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,880 Speaker 11: what happens the Whayouse totally takes the bait. I mean, 478 00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,840 Speaker 11: like you're supposed to ignore stuff like this, and in 479 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,359 Speaker 11: taking the bait, not only does the President say some 480 00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:58,360 Speaker 11: pretty injurious stuff about like this is seditious and these 481 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 11: people should be put to death. That's a bad thing, right, 482 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 11: That's a bad news day for Donald Trump. 483 00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:04,639 Speaker 3: He doesn't really mean it. 484 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,679 Speaker 11: I'm highly confident he doesn't want to put Mark Kelly 485 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:09,720 Speaker 11: to death. But at the end of the day, he 486 00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 11: unleashes the Justice Department on him, and then what happens. 487 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 3: They elevate Mark Kelly. 488 00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,159 Speaker 11: Now people are talking about him running for president of 489 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,040 Speaker 11: the United States in twenty twenty eight. 490 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 3: I mean, like, that's the best thing that ever happened 491 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:22,919 Speaker 3: in Mark Kelly's political career. 492 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,919 Speaker 11: So, you know, I just I don't understand why everyone 493 00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 11: isn't just taking a step back on this and saying, 494 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,920 Speaker 11: you know what, this makes absolutely no sense. Why are 495 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:34,080 Speaker 11: we prosecuting this thing and now to get the black 496 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:39,240 Speaker 11: eye of a grand jury saying no to the Justice Department. 497 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:42,960 Speaker 11: By the way, in another high profile case like the 498 00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 11: Komi and the Letitia James Casey, they're like striking out 499 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:47,639 Speaker 11: at the plate. 500 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 3: So I don't know. 501 00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 11: I mean, to me, this was all very avoidable. But 502 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,560 Speaker 11: I guess if you if you want to play, you 503 00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:56,440 Speaker 11: got to you got to decide whether you're going to 504 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:57,040 Speaker 11: win or lose. 505 00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:58,240 Speaker 8: Yeah. 506 00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,320 Speaker 4: Well, and to the point Rick is making on these strikeouts, Genie, 507 00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:06,159 Speaker 4: arguably the bar for a grand jury indictment isn't incredibly high. Necessarily, 508 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:09,240 Speaker 4: We're not talking conviction here. This is just the indictment 509 00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:12,639 Speaker 4: to try to make to bring the case forward. Do 510 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:15,400 Speaker 4: you take heart in the fact that this isn't necessarily 511 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,159 Speaker 4: just everything the DJ want the DOJ is getting. 512 00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:23,440 Speaker 12: Yeah, the old Ham Sandwich, Kaylee. And you know, somebody 513 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:27,359 Speaker 12: was saying at the hearing today, the number of strikeouts 514 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:32,679 Speaker 12: by this DOJ is astronomical compared to any attempts to 515 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 12: get grand jury indictments in the years before. And so 516 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:41,359 Speaker 12: I believe we are hearing Pambondy respond to messages that 517 00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 12: Donald Trump has accidentally sent her publicly, and I'm sure 518 00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:47,320 Speaker 12: she's gotten a lot more heated messages from him privately, 519 00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:51,120 Speaker 12: saying you need to pursue this. So again, very much 520 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 12: like Mike Johnson, even though they know they're going to 521 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:57,960 Speaker 12: strike out, they keep pursuing this and end up looking weak. 522 00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,880 Speaker 12: And you know, somebody said, and it's so true. This 523 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,679 Speaker 12: video that they put forward is the same message that 524 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 12: the Department of the Defense Law of War manual says. 525 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,199 Speaker 12: And yet you're going to try to go to grand 526 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:16,639 Speaker 12: jurors and indict people for repeating what the law of 527 00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:20,359 Speaker 12: War manual actually says that's a non starter, and God 528 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 12: bless our grand jurors. We now are in a situation 529 00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,560 Speaker 12: in this country where it is average people on the 530 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:28,920 Speaker 12: street who are hauled into a grand jury to sit, 531 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:32,880 Speaker 12: who are checking the president and the doj who are 532 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:37,439 Speaker 12: wildly overstepping any sort of executive mandate. It's not a 533 00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 12: great place for our country to be, but it's where 534 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,040 Speaker 12: we are. And if we had courts that would do 535 00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:43,840 Speaker 12: the same, we'd be in better shape. But now we 536 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,760 Speaker 12: have grand jurors who are saying this is a non 537 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:50,199 Speaker 12: starter in a way they never have before in American history. 538 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,800 Speaker 4: All right, Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributors 539 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:56,400 Speaker 4: in our political panel today, Thank you both. 540 00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:58,880 Speaker 3: As always, stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll 541 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:00,479 Speaker 3: have much more coming up after this. 542 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch 543 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 544 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,840 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You 545 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,359 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 546 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:22,600 Speaker 1: New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 547 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:25,439 Speaker 5: A least seems like it should be Thursday, is it 548 00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:27,159 Speaker 5: just me? And until this ice is gone, it's going 549 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 5: to probably feel like that we're just grinding through winter. 550 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:32,760 Speaker 5: But the fact is we're back above freezing. And if 551 00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 5: you're here in the nation's capital, maybe in New York 552 00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:36,879 Speaker 5: or Boston, you can relate. If you're listening to me 553 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,199 Speaker 5: in La you can laugh at us later because snow 554 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:44,560 Speaker 5: Creek remains our reality. And if you think you're a 555 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:48,719 Speaker 5: big shot because you survive snow bagedin, you saw nothing 556 00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:52,720 Speaker 5: until snow crete twenty days of temperatures below freezing? 557 00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:53,520 Speaker 3: Are you kidding me? 558 00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,000 Speaker 5: So everyone's walking around, You're going to see you like 559 00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,919 Speaker 5: bros with shorts and flip flops on by the end 560 00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:01,960 Speaker 5: of the day, sliding across the ice with a little 561 00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,679 Speaker 5: bit of a melt starting here, and people are like 562 00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,159 Speaker 5: walking across the river now and on ponds and stuff. 563 00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:09,800 Speaker 5: You see this, James, you producer, James, by the way, 564 00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:11,240 Speaker 5: an avid ice fisherman. 565 00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:13,480 Speaker 3: If you get bored in the winter, that's who you 566 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:13,919 Speaker 3: want to be. 567 00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:17,720 Speaker 5: With ice cover on area waterways at its most extensive 568 00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:19,199 Speaker 5: level in decades. 569 00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:21,200 Speaker 3: In fact, local ponds. 570 00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:24,120 Speaker 5: Are apparently completely frozen all the way to the bottom 571 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:28,760 Speaker 5: so playing hockey is taken on new meaning here this winter, 572 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 5: but it's not going to last long. The melt is 573 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:35,399 Speaker 5: beginning and the mud is coming to the swamp. The 574 00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 5: question is will the Department of Homeland Security be open 575 00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 5: beyond the end of this week even and it's kind 576 00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:42,200 Speaker 5: of looking like a no. 577 00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:42,840 Speaker 3: Right now. 578 00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:47,040 Speaker 5: We set the baseline on what's happening on Capitol Hill 579 00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:53,080 Speaker 5: with administration officials talking reportedly with Democratic leadership, but there 580 00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 5: is no deal yet when it comes to putting controls 581 00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:59,120 Speaker 5: or restrictions on ice and therefore unlocking a funding package 582 00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,000 Speaker 5: that could pass. So we could be in a world 583 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 5: in which eleven agencies are up and running, but DHS 584 00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:08,680 Speaker 5: is closed, unless, of course, there's a continuing resolution. Progressive 585 00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,600 Speaker 5: say they don't want that. Same for the Freedom Caucus, right, so, 586 00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:15,400 Speaker 5: no one's getting along, and it's times like these we 587 00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:17,840 Speaker 5: benefit from a couple of minutes with Mora Gillespie, a 588 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 5: veteran of John Bayner's Speaker's Office, Republican strategists now the 589 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 5: force behind Blue Stack strategies. It's great to see you 590 00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:27,640 Speaker 5: in the nation's capital. We did away with some of 591 00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:29,080 Speaker 5: the ice before you, but I'm sure it's worse in 592 00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:30,760 Speaker 5: New Jersey anyway, right, but there's. 593 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,960 Speaker 13: Still ice here alone. I can tell you I wiped 594 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 13: out earlier today. No, you didn't believe, Yes, in a 595 00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:38,240 Speaker 13: very cartoon esque fashion. 596 00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:40,040 Speaker 3: I don't believe that anyone see it. 597 00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:43,640 Speaker 13: Really, I would hope that some people saw it for 598 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:44,480 Speaker 13: their own set. 599 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:46,960 Speaker 3: That's very gracious of you. 600 00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:49,720 Speaker 5: I took a major digger on the ice about two 601 00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:52,480 Speaker 5: weeks ago, and it was like one of those redefining 602 00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:56,600 Speaker 5: I was seeing stars and it's definitely changed the way 603 00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:00,760 Speaker 5: I approached my walking yeah into the office, so mumbling, indeed, 604 00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,280 Speaker 5: how humbled will Mike Johnson be at the end of 605 00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:06,200 Speaker 5: this week? Because it's not looking like this is going 606 00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:08,400 Speaker 5: to turn into a deal. But it's funny more, I 607 00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 5: keep seeing headlines about cautious optimism. Light at the end 608 00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 5: of the tunnel. You're saying, there's a chance, Are you 609 00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 5: buying any of that? 610 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:17,840 Speaker 8: What other position does he have to have? 611 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:19,960 Speaker 13: I mean, he's got to try and stay optimistic given 612 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,160 Speaker 13: what he's got in a caucus where a conference where 613 00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:25,240 Speaker 13: he doesn't have much to wiggle room to have, he's 614 00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,600 Speaker 13: got to say optimistic. You know, you've got Senator John 615 00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:30,400 Speaker 13: Thune coming out saying he's really urging Democrats to play 616 00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 13: ball to find a way to resolve this, because, as 617 00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:36,240 Speaker 13: he pointed out, TSA doesn't get funded if DHS goes 618 00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:39,520 Speaker 13: without funding again, and the lapse is just a DHS, 619 00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,440 Speaker 13: as you already pointed out, everything else is funded, but 620 00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,360 Speaker 13: they're only funded, you know, more or less to a 621 00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:49,040 Speaker 13: continuing circumstance anyway. You know, appropriation's policy, you know, typically 622 00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:51,600 Speaker 13: it's done in the summer and then goes through another process. 623 00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:53,960 Speaker 13: But we've kind of pushed and kicked the can down 624 00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,520 Speaker 13: the road so often. That's kind of why we're here 625 00:30:56,560 --> 00:31:00,360 Speaker 13: where we are now. But it becomes a number game, 626 00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:03,240 Speaker 13: as it has been for Speaker Johnson, and I think 627 00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:04,760 Speaker 13: fun is trying to do as much as he can 628 00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:06,640 Speaker 13: to help him be in better footing. 629 00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,959 Speaker 5: Is there anything that Republicans that you're hearing at least 630 00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,880 Speaker 5: are willing to offer beyond body cameras was kind of 631 00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,200 Speaker 5: I think the attempt by the agency to say, hey, okay, 632 00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,160 Speaker 5: we're just going to do this right now. But when 633 00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:19,960 Speaker 5: it comes to d masking, total breakdown, when it comes 634 00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:23,960 Speaker 5: to judicial warrants, total breakdown. Is there anything that Democrats 635 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:25,720 Speaker 5: walk away with here or no. 636 00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:27,920 Speaker 13: You know, it's interesting because you're seeing different states say 637 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,800 Speaker 13: that they're going to enforcing that mask rule. 638 00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:30,200 Speaker 3: Yeah. 639 00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:31,440 Speaker 13: I don't know how they're going to do that with 640 00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 13: having Yeah, and I think that's where you're going to 641 00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,640 Speaker 13: see some maybe some movement because if states put pressure 642 00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,480 Speaker 13: on their members saying we're looking to do this, you 643 00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:40,960 Speaker 13: need to push you know, kind of push back. 644 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:42,560 Speaker 8: That's going to become an issue. 645 00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:44,200 Speaker 13: So I do you think there's going to be some 646 00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:47,760 Speaker 13: conversations going on between state and federal to maybe then 647 00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:51,520 Speaker 13: get them to either acquiesce on the position that Republicans 648 00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:52,520 Speaker 13: have or vice versa. 649 00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,280 Speaker 5: So are you considering a world in which DHS shuts 650 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:59,080 Speaker 5: down indefinitely? I mean, there's been a conversation about how 651 00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:04,280 Speaker 5: do we silo DHS, But can your ice, I guess 652 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,400 Speaker 5: would be the real way of putting it while also 653 00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:08,480 Speaker 5: funding FEMA, Coast Guard and the TSA. 654 00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:10,600 Speaker 3: Is that possible? Could appropriators do this? 655 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:12,280 Speaker 13: I don't know how they'll separate it. I do think 656 00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,560 Speaker 13: that's going to be a problem. I'm sure that's what 657 00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:16,840 Speaker 13: members would love to have happen, because it's easier for 658 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:19,320 Speaker 13: them to get behind a bill that supports FEMA supports 659 00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:22,719 Speaker 13: TSA agents and making sure that that's all covered. But 660 00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:26,120 Speaker 13: there's something that's going to get done between today is Wednesday. 661 00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:28,320 Speaker 8: You know, Friday is the deadline. 662 00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:30,680 Speaker 13: So if so many members are saying they're not going 663 00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:33,240 Speaker 13: to be part of this continuing resolution, you're going to 664 00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:36,360 Speaker 13: start hearing from organizations and from constituents who are concerned 665 00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:39,360 Speaker 13: about travel. There's already enough concerns about travel right now. 666 00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,920 Speaker 13: We just solve the FAA just put out this al 667 00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,120 Speaker 13: Paso and then overturned it within a matter of which 668 00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:48,680 Speaker 13: felt like ours very bizarre situation, and so more questions 669 00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:50,720 Speaker 13: and more confusion, and that's the last thing that airports 670 00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:52,760 Speaker 13: need is fearful travelers. 671 00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:56,120 Speaker 8: It's already a heightened situation. And so I do think that. 672 00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:58,800 Speaker 13: Continue resolution to get through Friday and through the weekend. 673 00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:01,080 Speaker 13: If they're not willing to play ball there, then you 674 00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:02,720 Speaker 13: have to look at what's going to happen next week. 675 00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:04,960 Speaker 13: And members weren't slated to be at least the house 676 00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:05,640 Speaker 13: to be in town. 677 00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:09,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, TSA would go without pay once we get into March, 678 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,200 Speaker 5: from what I understand, So maybe Democrats see a couple 679 00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:14,120 Speaker 5: of weeks to play with before this becomes an urgent, 680 00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 5: front page story, airport story. 681 00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:18,880 Speaker 3: But talk to me about what happened with this tariff 682 00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:19,680 Speaker 3: vote yesterday. 683 00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:22,560 Speaker 5: This is interesting and it is being framed, at least 684 00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:25,600 Speaker 5: in the tip sheets this morning as a very big deal, 685 00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:29,720 Speaker 5: a turning point. Donald Trump finally found the line in 686 00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,720 Speaker 5: the Republican Ledhouse and Senate. What we're really talking about. 687 00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:36,480 Speaker 5: It is two seventeen, two fourteen. Three Republicans crossed over 688 00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:41,960 Speaker 5: to block future votes, or to block a block on 689 00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:46,680 Speaker 5: future votes over the President's tariffs. Mike Johnson tried like 690 00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:50,640 Speaker 5: heck to keep the conference together. Is this a watershed 691 00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 5: moment or a jail break of just three members? 692 00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:56,760 Speaker 13: I think what it shows you is that there is 693 00:33:56,800 --> 00:34:00,120 Speaker 13: an appetite to reclaim control over a power that the 694 00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:03,840 Speaker 13: Congress has are called one of the Constitution, and many 695 00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:07,280 Speaker 13: members have privately expressed frustration over it being handed over 696 00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:09,719 Speaker 13: to the president because they also know that back at 697 00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 13: home tariffs. 698 00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:12,560 Speaker 8: While it was messaged differently. 699 00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:15,400 Speaker 13: During the campaign, it's attacks and it's largely felt by 700 00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:18,160 Speaker 13: the American consumer. And that's a message that they're having 701 00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:21,160 Speaker 13: a hard time not only justifying to their constituents, but 702 00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:24,080 Speaker 13: then in talking from a constitutional aspect, that's a role 703 00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:26,640 Speaker 13: that they had that the Speaker has more or less 704 00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:29,200 Speaker 13: given over to the President. And I understand that Speaker 705 00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:32,240 Speaker 13: Johnson's approach to this is saying, let's let the courts 706 00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:36,240 Speaker 13: play out and let them decide. Members who have said, okay, fine, 707 00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:39,400 Speaker 13: they've waited a long time for the court to decide 708 00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:41,480 Speaker 13: on tariffs and still hasn't come out yet, and so 709 00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:45,239 Speaker 13: presented with this vote last night, they chose to say, no, 710 00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:48,719 Speaker 13: I'm going to reclaim the position of the ability of 711 00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:52,080 Speaker 13: Congress to make decisions on tariffs. I don't know that, 712 00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:54,040 Speaker 13: I necessarily say as a watershed moment, but it may 713 00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,600 Speaker 13: give other members who are feeling this privately a little 714 00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,200 Speaker 13: bit more courage to say I support that, okay. 715 00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:02,759 Speaker 5: So that's my next question is because Democrats aren't waiting around, 716 00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:04,359 Speaker 5: there's going to be a vote tonight. It looks like 717 00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:08,280 Speaker 5: on Gregory makes bill when it comes to Canada tariffs, 718 00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:10,600 Speaker 5: and they're going to come around again and again and 719 00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:12,879 Speaker 5: again to try to get Republicans on the record one 720 00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:15,480 Speaker 5: way or the other. You either like tariffs and you 721 00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:18,040 Speaker 5: can make Trump happy and maybe your constituent's unhappy, or 722 00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,040 Speaker 5: you're going to cross the Boss on this is that 723 00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:21,880 Speaker 5: the actual strategy. 724 00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:23,360 Speaker 13: Here, Well, I've got to see what Gregory makes his 725 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,960 Speaker 13: legislative you know kind of text is because if it's 726 00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:29,920 Speaker 13: revolving around this bridge ISSU situation that you're still kind 727 00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:33,440 Speaker 13: of play out on social media this week, that may 728 00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,799 Speaker 13: give some members some cover to say, well, we're still 729 00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,480 Speaker 13: figuring this part out with Canada to bigger pictures. 730 00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:40,600 Speaker 5: You want to be called out if you're a Republican 731 00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:42,600 Speaker 5: being put on record, being put on record. 732 00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,439 Speaker 3: Whatever they pass, right, that. 733 00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:49,359 Speaker 13: Becomes a problem again when you're getting we and every 734 00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,320 Speaker 13: day closer to the twenty twenty sixth of mid terms, 735 00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,759 Speaker 13: and they're going to be on record saying that they 736 00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,160 Speaker 13: are pro tariffs, pro taxes, that's going to be a 737 00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:00,399 Speaker 13: problem and it's ripe for an advertisement against them come 738 00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:01,239 Speaker 13: the summer. 739 00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:03,800 Speaker 5: Over and over and over. By the way, the Senate 740 00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:09,200 Speaker 5: has already voted against these tariffs. I'm assuming that there's 741 00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:12,000 Speaker 5: no anti Veto majority here. 742 00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:14,480 Speaker 13: Well, and you have several Senators who have come out 743 00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:17,839 Speaker 13: saying this is our responsibility. In the Constitution, it lays 744 00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:20,680 Speaker 13: it out for Congress's aside on taxes and tariffs, and 745 00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:23,359 Speaker 13: then for the executive to implement it, and I think 746 00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:24,960 Speaker 13: on the show, I've said it's hard for me to 747 00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:27,520 Speaker 13: recognize that I've agreed with Rand Paul more times this 748 00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:29,439 Speaker 13: year than I can really remember. 749 00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:30,600 Speaker 8: In my lifetime on the Hill. 750 00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:33,600 Speaker 13: But he has been pretty vocal about it, and among 751 00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:37,640 Speaker 13: others who have again pointing to the constitutionality of this 752 00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:42,480 Speaker 13: position to give them cover in their conservative values that 753 00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:45,200 Speaker 13: they're standing by the Constitution and the president isn't. And 754 00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:47,800 Speaker 13: so trying to draw that line, I also think is 755 00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:49,520 Speaker 13: going to be a benefit to them as they look 756 00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:54,120 Speaker 13: forward in their elections, because again, the president's not running again, 757 00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:57,040 Speaker 13: right he can't, and they are, and if they are, 758 00:36:57,080 --> 00:37:00,480 Speaker 13: they need to be sitting in their conservative principles, and 759 00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:02,640 Speaker 13: so this is in a position where they could point 760 00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:03,160 Speaker 13: out that different. 761 00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,239 Speaker 5: This is going to get more interesting after the midterms, 762 00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:08,239 Speaker 5: but he's trying very hard to put himself on the ballot. 763 00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:11,759 Speaker 5: It's going to be a Republican midterm convention. Does that 764 00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:13,719 Speaker 5: keep the conference largely in line until then? 765 00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:15,000 Speaker 8: I don't know that it does. 766 00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,520 Speaker 13: I do think that there are more and more cracks 767 00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:23,200 Speaker 13: in the Trump stronghold as people recognize the economies not 768 00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:27,520 Speaker 13: where it was supposed to be that was promised, that 769 00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:30,720 Speaker 13: these ice rates have been more damaging and making people 770 00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:33,840 Speaker 13: feel less safe, which is the opposite goal, which was 771 00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:38,439 Speaker 13: intended to create a safer, stronger security. And you find 772 00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:41,680 Speaker 13: more and more of these fissures in the Republican stronghold 773 00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:44,640 Speaker 13: that Trump has had, and I think again you're pointing 774 00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:47,359 Speaker 13: to some off ramps for Republicans to look to and 775 00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,359 Speaker 13: say I'm standing for my constituents, not just for what 776 00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:52,720 Speaker 13: the administration is pushing out today. 777 00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:53,520 Speaker 3: Really interesting. 778 00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:56,400 Speaker 5: I think you pointed to something really important to remember 779 00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,640 Speaker 5: this if and when it happens, this could turn into 780 00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:01,399 Speaker 5: a states versus federal law enforcement issue when it comes 781 00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:04,040 Speaker 5: to masking, if Congress can't figure this out, and that 782 00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:05,600 Speaker 5: in itself is a pretty scary prospect. 783 00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:08,600 Speaker 13: It is, But I also think you remember that Conservatives, 784 00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:12,279 Speaker 13: in a principle, they believe in small and more accountable government. 785 00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:14,840 Speaker 3: And so that looks like states rights. Absolutely great to 786 00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:16,440 Speaker 3: see you, Laura Gillespie. 787 00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:19,280 Speaker 5: What a rare treat to have the founder of Bluestack 788 00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:22,480 Speaker 5: Strategies with us in the flesh in Washington. Let us 789 00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:23,960 Speaker 5: know when you're back in town, and I'm sure you'll 790 00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:28,600 Speaker 5: be back on our panel soon. Thanks for listening to 791 00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:32,040 Speaker 5: the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if 792 00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:34,799 Speaker 5: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get 793 00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,840 Speaker 5: your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday 794 00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:41,720 Speaker 5: from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.