1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,119 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. 11 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,200 Speaker 3: Joining us ow Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets, Laura. There's 12 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 3: a brutal draw down in the standard and ports five 13 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 3: hundred half a percent over the weekend, lots of gloom OMG. 14 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 3: Big tech is done? Is big Tech done stuff? 15 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:04,679 Speaker 4: And I think, I you know, I do think ultimately 16 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 4: this market will rotate, But I also understand why it's 17 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 4: having trouble doing so. And I think part of the 18 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:12,760 Speaker 4: reason why it's having trouble doing so is all the 19 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,680 Speaker 4: economic excitement that we were seeing, you know, I think 20 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 4: we saw a lot of it in February where we 21 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 4: saw GDP forecasts for twenty twenty four just ratcheted up 22 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 4: really really fast, in a hurry, in a big way. 23 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 4: We're just not getting that. If I look at the 24 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 4: twenty twenty five GDP forecast on the on the ECFS, 25 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 4: I think it's ECFC on Bloomberg is the function you 26 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:34,680 Speaker 4: can track what the cell side economists are saying every week, 27 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 4: and that's and stuff from one point seven to one 28 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 4: point eight percent, and that's still a below trend level. 29 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 4: If you look at some of the quarterly numbers, we're 30 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 4: headed into kind of a softer patch of below trend 31 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 4: type GDP that is just not the kind of macro 32 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 4: backdrop that typically sees cyclical small caps and value be 33 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 4: large caps and growth. So I think there's this itch 34 00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 4: that this growth trade is over valued. It's crowded, you know, 35 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 4: it's sort of the earnings expectations are decelerating. On the 36 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 4: one hand, that all suggests you should be moving out, 37 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 4: But on the other hand, you really need these economic 38 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 4: tailwinds and they're just not there. So you've just got 39 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 4: these cross currents that are fighting with each other right now. 40 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 5: Laurie, are you surprised that in a world where we 41 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 5: came into this twenty twenty four and the mark was 42 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 5: discounting six FED rate cuts and now we're down to 43 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 5: something like one or two despite that trend in you 44 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 5: know FED out look the S and P five hundred 45 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 5: sup fifteen percent. Does that surprise you? 46 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:36,079 Speaker 4: So I think that it makes sense to me, again 47 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 4: in the context of that ratcheting up of economic expectations 48 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 4: that we saw for twenty twenty four earlier. If you 49 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 4: go back and look at the GDP forecast for twenty 50 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 4: four last summer, it was tracking at point six percent. 51 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 4: Zero to two percent is a lousy environment for the 52 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:52,920 Speaker 4: equity market. You typically see stocks go down when you're 53 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 4: an economic purgatory like that. But two to four percent 54 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 4: and now twenty twenty four is tracking around two point 55 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 4: four that's typically a very solid environment for the stock market. 56 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 4: The average changes, I think you're like twelve thirteen percent 57 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 4: somewhere in there. So we transitioned from that idea that 58 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:09,320 Speaker 4: we're stuck in economic purgatory to it's actually going to 59 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:11,360 Speaker 4: be a pretty good year economically, and I think that 60 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 4: really overcame the you know, the kind of ratcheting down 61 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 4: of FED hopes and dreams because it was happening for 62 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 4: good reasons. 63 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,519 Speaker 5: So in a world where it seems higher for longer 64 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 5: in terms of rates, here what sectors screen well for 65 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 5: you guys. 66 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 4: I don't think that it's you know, it's any one 67 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:33,959 Speaker 4: sector that you can point to because of that. I 68 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 4: think you've got to look at a lot of different factors, 69 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 4: and I think sector choices are very very difficult these days. 70 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 4: I do think that if we can sort of get 71 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 4: the economic tailwinds back on track, then a sector like 72 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 4: financials makes a lot of sense. It's very positively correlated 73 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 4: with consumer confidence trends tends to outperform when consumer confidence 74 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 4: is rising. These companies don't have a lot of just 75 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 4: sort of innate growth anymore, but they tend to really 76 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 4: be kind of viewed as the plumbing of the economy. 77 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:01,760 Speaker 4: So I think that's one area you can look at, 78 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 4: and valuations are still very favorable. I think other than that, 79 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 4: if you think about sort of higher for longer, you 80 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 4: have to go to the root causes of that, And 81 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 4: I do think inflation ultimately is a little bit higher 82 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 4: than what we've been used to, which would point you 83 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 4: to I think things like energy materials, you know, some 84 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 4: of the commodity sectors. 85 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:20,039 Speaker 3: Well, that's where I want to go. Bank of America. 86 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 3: Laurie just published Nea Coda over in Europe, and you 87 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 3: know qu she says, buy the French dip. You know 88 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:29,480 Speaker 3: it's a B fund and what special sauce and all that, 89 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:31,720 Speaker 3: but she's going to buy the French dip with all 90 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 3: that politics, Laurie in the American markets, Now, where is 91 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 3: your French dip? Where is the opportunity of something that's 92 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,840 Speaker 3: pulled back and you say, well, finally I can buy. 93 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 4: So you know, if we look at valuations, I do 94 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 4: again go back to energy, I go back to financials. 95 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 4: Those are still screening very very well on our valuation framework, 96 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 4: and energy, while it got off to a great start 97 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 4: of the year in terms of relative performance, has really 98 00:04:57,400 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 4: faded recently. So that's one that we're keeping an eye 99 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,160 Speaker 4: on that. You know, I think that people keep looking 100 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 4: at small caps. I'm sort of sticking on the sidelines 101 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 4: with those for now. But you know, we have noticed 102 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 4: that if you look at the funds flow data, you're 103 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 4: starting to see passive money come back into the small 104 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:15,280 Speaker 4: caps space recently. If you look at the latest CPF 105 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:17,480 Speaker 4: our Data. So I think that's an area to watch. 106 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:19,800 Speaker 4: But frankly, I'm just not convinced that it's going to 107 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 4: really be able to take off in a sustainable way 108 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:24,359 Speaker 4: until the economic tail winds are back and until you 109 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 4: get the cuts in sight. 110 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 3: G Lori Kelvisina ce Michelle, Principal asset Management, and she's 111 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 3: got a wonderful, wonderful global perspective tied into what do 112 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:47,200 Speaker 3: you do domestically as well? Is the rest of the 113 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 3: world in love with us big caps? Do they love 114 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 3: does the city? Does the city love Nvidia as much 115 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:56,280 Speaker 3: as we do? 116 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 6: Yes? 117 00:05:57,360 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 7: I think they have to look at the numbers and 118 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:03,160 Speaker 7: it's undeniable the strength. And I think the thing that 119 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:05,799 Speaker 7: you continue to see is frustration, maybe that people hadn't 120 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,280 Speaker 7: increased their exposure before so. 121 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 3: It was only ras. So this is important. You started this, 122 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,839 Speaker 3: you know, as like third week or whatever. Finance. Do 123 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 3: you believe in window dressing against June whatever? Twenty five, 124 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 3: Paul June thirty. I know if I don't want enough Apple, 125 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:23,479 Speaker 3: I look like an idiot, exactly right. 126 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 5: So I mean you get Nvidio bigger than Apple, bigger 127 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 5: in some of these other names. I mean it kind 128 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 5: of came out of nowhere. But how do you think 129 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 5: about those big tech names these days? To do we 130 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 5: chase them or do we try to find some other opportunities. 131 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 7: So we think that you if you don't already have exposure, 132 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 7: it's probably not the best time to be adding exposure. 133 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 7: But you also don't want to be reducing your exposure. 134 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:43,920 Speaker 8: At this point. 135 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 7: We do think there's other opportunities in the market. We 136 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:49,280 Speaker 7: are expecting a broadening out in the rating, but again, 137 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:50,719 Speaker 7: this is not going to be anything which is like 138 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:52,600 Speaker 7: what you've seen for the big cap space. It's not 139 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 7: going to be such a significant move in the broader market. 140 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:59,559 Speaker 7: But given the valuations where they are today, and given 141 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 7: you still got a fairly strong backdrop. Okay, the macromatrup 142 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:04,720 Speaker 7: is slowing, but it's fairly strong. So you do want 143 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 7: to have exposure to other parts of the market. And 144 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 7: I think you know, if you look at financials, if 145 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 7: you look at industrials, I think there are pockets which 146 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 7: can do well, but not only just in the US. 147 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 7: I think you can look outside the US, Latin America, 148 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 7: parts of Asia. They also look pretty attractive. 149 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:21,239 Speaker 5: How do we think about valuation here just broadly defined. 150 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 5: I mean I would argue that it seems like the 151 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 5: US market would be fully valued to be generous, and 152 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 5: then I need to be looking at Europe or Asia. 153 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 5: I mean when you talk to your global clients and 154 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 5: is that what they're talking about? 155 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean it's always been a situation that they 156 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 7: look across as the global map and they say, Wow, 157 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 7: the US is so expensive. Why is there nobody nowhere 158 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 7: else that you can increase exposure to? And I think 159 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 7: certainly for this year there has been opportunities Europe. You 160 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 7: mentioned it is relatively cheap, but actually at this point 161 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 7: in time, somewhat concerned about where that is going, and 162 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 7: actually preferences said Latin America, pockets of Asia which has 163 00:07:57,000 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 7: still got their exposure to the tech cycle, which we 164 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 7: think can continue to do well. 165 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 3: One of the things I look at here is over 166 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 3: the weekend, a lot of people again desperately wanting to 167 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 3: trade or market time the big tech, the big stocks. 168 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 3: I saw a lot of research this weekend. Now's the 169 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 3: time to get out, Now's the time to lighten up 170 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 3: in that. What's your study at LLC of market timing 171 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 3: not so much buy and hold, but just extending your 172 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 3: belief I own somebody listening right now owns Microsoft. They 173 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 3: got lucky, somebody gave it to them. Whatever, How do 174 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 3: you extend your timeline and not market time? 175 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:43,079 Speaker 7: Well, first, I think I think it's a fool's game 176 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 7: almost to try and think that you're going to have 177 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 7: perfect timing in this kind of market. And I think 178 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 7: what's more difficult about the big tech is that I 179 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 7: think that the microagnostic, so you almost have to look 180 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 7: away from the microphone. 181 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 3: What do you mean by the macroagnostics? Y, I lost 182 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:55,319 Speaker 3: it in the accent. 183 00:08:55,440 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 7: You know, macro agnostic. It doesn't matter what the growth outlokas, 184 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:03,720 Speaker 7: it doesn't almost matter what the fed outlooka is. Those 185 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 7: companies are almost creating their own demand now with the 186 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:09,200 Speaker 7: advent of AI. So actually, what we're doing almost is 187 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 7: becoming an individual stockpicker and having to understand the dynamics 188 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 7: of those specific companies, and to us, it's very Difficult's cool, 189 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:19,719 Speaker 7: but I think that party's going to keep going on 190 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 7: for it. 191 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 3: So this goes to Michael Mobison and capital allocation in 192 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 3: the standard discounted cash flow analysis. Mobison would say, and 193 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 3: I agree with them. I think you have to put 194 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:34,679 Speaker 3: more weight on the individual quarter, the individual years, and 195 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 3: less weight on fancy plug in math plugin chuck math 196 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:42,959 Speaker 3: and the terminal value. I think there's too much analysis 197 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 3: on what's Microsoft going to be doing seven years and 198 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:48,839 Speaker 3: not enough weight or what are they going to be 199 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 3: doing in the next ninety days. 200 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:53,559 Speaker 7: And I think that's even more important for technology because 201 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 7: you're seeing that people are trying to understand on a month, 202 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 7: my month, call to my quarter basis of where things 203 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:01,000 Speaker 7: are moving. And the thing is, with tech, it's moving 204 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 7: so quickly. The progress that you've already seen is advancing 205 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 7: really quickly. That actually, yes, that shorter timescale becomes more important. 206 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 5: All right, Let's think about fixed income here, because a 207 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 5: lot of folks are saying they can go to a 208 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 5: US Treasury two year get close to five percent. 209 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:17,199 Speaker 6: Is that enough or do I. 210 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:18,559 Speaker 5: Try to take some credit risk here and get a 211 00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 5: little bit more creative? 212 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 7: So I think at this point, with Treasury especially, duration 213 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 7: is not particularly attractive at these levels. I think, even 214 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 7: though you're likely to see FED cuts this year, with 215 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 7: a continuation with it, actually with a shadow cutting cycle 216 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 7: most likely for twenty twenty five, plus, concerns around term premium, 217 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 7: the discussions around fiscal deficit that actually yields and not 218 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 7: going to come much lower from here for credit, though 219 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 7: there is certainly interesting parts. IG is one error that 220 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 7: we are sunny. We do have an overweight to but 221 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 7: we're looking sunny at the quality space. 222 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 3: You've lit up the live shared on YouTube worldwide. People 223 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 3: are listening to you and they're saying wait. Seem as 224 00:10:56,640 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 3: Sure is saying ignore macro. Let's be careful about this. 225 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 3: Do you think this bull market of twelve stocks, twenty stocks, 226 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:10,720 Speaker 3: whatever is removed from FED analysis where it's just about 227 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 3: their individual stories. 228 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 7: I do. I don't think the FED has an impact 229 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:16,599 Speaker 7: on these companies. I don't think if the FED is 230 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 7: going to cut in Septener vers December, this is a. 231 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 3: Huge deal, because I'm halfway there. I think it's way overrated. 232 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 3: At least Brama, when I go on this all the time, 233 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 3: she's like following the FED thing up down. So I'm like, no, 234 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 3: it doesn't matter. But you've gone full boat. You've just 235 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:37,439 Speaker 3: said you don't care what chairman Paula says. 236 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 7: I think that it matters for the other four hundred 237 00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:43,560 Speaker 7: and ninety three stocks, But I think for those seven 238 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:44,959 Speaker 7: or haven't. Maybe you want to call it now the 239 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 7: magnificent ones. The FED is not relevant inter that analysis, 240 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:51,600 Speaker 7: But for that broadening in the raalley, the FED doesn't matter. 241 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 5: Yep, Hey Shiman, How do you think about alternative investments, 242 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 5: private equity, private credit, hedge funds, things like that. Where 243 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,440 Speaker 5: do you think that those belong in that portfolio today? 244 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 7: I mean they absolutely need some kind of allocation, okay, 245 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 7: the returns to get the returns that people are looking 246 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:10,040 Speaker 7: for over the next five to ten year period. If 247 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 7: you don't have exposure to big tech and then are 248 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 7: going to keep delivering at the same pace that they've had, 249 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 7: you need to look outside your traditional errors. So we 250 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 7: are looking at the alternative space. I mean even within 251 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 7: the alternatives, a lot of focus on real asets because 252 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 7: of inflation mitigation, but certainly in the private space, I 253 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:27,719 Speaker 7: think there has to be allocation in private credit in. 254 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:31,560 Speaker 3: The time we've got left. You are of Aldrich and 255 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 3: London school of economics. How do you play the election 256 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:39,599 Speaker 3: in the United Kingdom? Is it a foot sea opportunity? 257 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:43,840 Speaker 3: Is it a guilt opportunity? I get all the consensus 258 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 3: and then forget about the gaming of the election, But 259 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 3: is there an opportunity there for investors looking for three years? 260 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:54,079 Speaker 7: So it depends what the I'm assume the Labor is 261 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 7: going to win, if the Labor Party is really going 262 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:57,480 Speaker 7: to think about what is going to make the UK 263 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 7: attractive investor to investors again, whether that's thinking about the 264 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:04,160 Speaker 7: EU trade relationship, whether it's thinking about capital gainst tax. 265 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 7: That has the potential to really improve the attractiveness of 266 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 7: the UK. But we're still waiting to hear it because 267 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:11,360 Speaker 7: they haven't said much about it in the manifesto. 268 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 5: Have the pro Brexit people have they admitted that maybe 269 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:18,680 Speaker 5: that it hasn't worked, it's not the right decision, or 270 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 5: is it still so partisan? 271 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 7: It is still quite partisan, but you are seeing more 272 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 7: and more people becoming fairly quiet about the subject, which 273 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:27,839 Speaker 7: I think is an admission that it didn't work out 274 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 7: so well. 275 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 5: And is that kind of what the data is showing 276 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 5: you that in fact it has not worked. 277 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,280 Speaker 7: The data is showing that all the promises that were 278 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 7: made in the event and the event of breaksit have 279 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:40,800 Speaker 7: not come to fruition and as a result, the economy 280 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 7: has not benefited. 281 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 5: You guys can't fix that overnight. 282 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:45,960 Speaker 3: Can you see her. She could be on ITV or Sky. 283 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 3: She worked with Treasury, so you know, oh boy, she 284 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:50,840 Speaker 3: could be a pundit. 285 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:54,200 Speaker 5: I need to go to the London School of Economics then. 286 00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 3: Oh it's great schools. To great school. Thank you, mister Robbins. 287 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 3: Darren Door from the rest share of Principal Asset Management 288 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 3: with Fordam Global Insight. A three hour conversation is in order. 289 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 3: Tina Fordham joins us this morning. Tina, it's a quiet 290 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 3: summer in Europe. My word, Tina, let me get to 291 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 3: the July thirty French election. I guess it's impact on 292 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 3: all of us. There are two does a pro like 293 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 3: you just ignore it and move right on to July seventh. 294 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:39,240 Speaker 8: Oh I wish we could ignore it, but no. 295 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 1: In fact, the first round is this coming Sunday, and 296 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 1: the second round is July seventh, so we've got the 297 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 1: two rounds, the first one in just a few days. 298 00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 1: Macraln gave himself the least time possible really to call 299 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 1: these snap elections, and it's thrown the whole French political 300 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 1: spectrum into disarray and woken up those of us who 301 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 1: haven't spent a lot of time focusing on French politics. 302 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 1: I mean really since Macron took office in two thousand 303 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 1: and seven with his Central Party. 304 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 3: My basic take looking at all of the sun including 305 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 3: the US debate, and that is that if Macron is defeated, 306 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 3: it's some form of conservative right wing coalition. Is that 307 00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 3: feasible or the polarity so fractious even that's not going 308 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 3: to happen. 309 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 1: Well, first of all, the French political landscape is highly 310 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 1: charged and highly fractious, and lots of the political party's 311 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 1: names start with R, so they sound the same for 312 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 1: outside observers. It's going to be confusing or renaissance, rassmn, 313 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 1: re conquet, this. 314 00:15:57,520 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 8: Sort of thing. 315 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 1: Macron Party is center right, so you know that's worth restating. 316 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:09,880 Speaker 1: It's the populist right under Marine la Penn that has 317 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 1: been working hard over the years to normalize and kind 318 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:17,000 Speaker 1: of mainstream itself that looks like. 319 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 8: It stands to benefit. 320 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 1: But the mathematics on this two round race and the 321 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 1: five hundred and something mini elections that take place make 322 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 1: the calculations really difficult. And so first of all, just 323 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 1: coming up with scenarios, which is what you would normally 324 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 1: do in this situation, is difficult. 325 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 3: Paul's looking for dissage tickets down the sen River at 326 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:42,680 Speaker 3: the Olympics. Paul, what do you have. 327 00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 5: Let's go to the UK here, tell us what we 328 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 5: should be thinking about here, Tina. With the UK elections. 329 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 1: Well, the UK elections are on the fourth of July, 330 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 1: so right between two rounds. 331 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:59,480 Speaker 8: I have been saying for some time. 332 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 1: I mean, first of all, the UK elections were due 333 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 1: this year, they had to be called. They could have 334 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:07,960 Speaker 1: been called by January at the latest. Still the timing is, 335 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:10,800 Speaker 1: you know, a bit of a head scratcher. It's not 336 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 1: usual to try to make people come to the polls 337 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:17,240 Speaker 1: in the height of summer and mess up everyone's summer vacations. 338 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:20,920 Speaker 8: Sunak, you know, is widely. 339 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 1: Rumored here in the UK to be you know, be 340 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 1: looking to get back to California and join Nick Clegg 341 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 1: somewhere like Meta in the Silicon Valley. But he insists 342 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:38,360 Speaker 1: he wants to remain in his Yorkshire constituency as an MP. 343 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:42,679 Speaker 1: That's something that's unusual about the British system that politicians 344 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 1: stick around the reason May has stayed on as a 345 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:51,639 Speaker 1: as an MP. But in this case, the UK is 346 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 1: bucking the trend for the rest of Europe, which is 347 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 1: moving far right in fact, and looks likely to vote 348 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 1: in a late government by a landslide. 349 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 5: And that's kind of where I wanted to get to. 350 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 5: How do we, you know, for our audience here in 351 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 5: the United States, how do we think about you know, 352 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 5: some of these European countries really moving to the right, 353 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 5: and you mentioned we were talking about France earlier and 354 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 5: the UK going more to the left. What does that 355 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 5: tell us? How do we think about that? 356 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:25,000 Speaker 1: Well, so the UK is an outlier in the wider 357 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 1: European trend. With that in mind, but we've had fourteen 358 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:32,399 Speaker 1: years of a Conservative Party government. Fourteen years that is 359 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:36,400 Speaker 1: a very long stretch. So first of all, it's an 360 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:42,399 Speaker 1: anti incumbent move. Secondly, eight years ago yesterday and I 361 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 1: can't believe it was this long ago, we had the 362 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 1: Brexit result. And Brexit has been the elephant in the 363 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:50,679 Speaker 1: room during this campaign because nobody wants to. 364 00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 8: Tell voters they voted for something that. 365 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:57,240 Speaker 1: You know, went the wrong direction and then they possibly 366 00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:02,199 Speaker 1: misjudged the outcome. But it has undoubtedly made people in 367 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:06,440 Speaker 1: Britain poorer, and they do understand that it breaks it 368 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 1: is the main cause of what ails them. 369 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 8: It just hasn't featured in the campaign, which is odd. 370 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 3: Tina. One final question, I'll drag you back to the 371 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 3: United States of America. What will you look for in 372 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 3: the Thursday debate? 373 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 1: Well, signs of life. 374 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:29,639 Speaker 8: Will all be looking for sentience and signs of life. 375 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 1: One of my clients in private equity in the US 376 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 1: described the races between demented and dementia. I don't know 377 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,919 Speaker 1: if you know use these kinds of technical terms on 378 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:44,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio, but I think a. 379 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,359 Speaker 8: Lot of Americans see it that way. 380 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,119 Speaker 1: And you're going to have the two of them side 381 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:52,920 Speaker 1: by side. You know, people like me will be getting 382 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 1: the popcorn out as well as covering it. Arguably, the 383 00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 1: bar is higher for Joe Biden because there has been 384 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 1: this relentless kind of narrative about him being a daughtering 385 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 1: you know, old fool, and Trump comes out guns blazing 386 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 1: with you know what is really also a meandering way 387 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:22,200 Speaker 1: of expressing himself. But the other side of it will 388 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:26,719 Speaker 1: be how does this work without a studio audience. Someone 389 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:30,200 Speaker 1: like Donald Trump really, I think needs the energy of 390 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 1: the crowd. 391 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 8: But this was a condition. 392 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 1: That reportedly President Biden required. So the debates rarely move 393 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 1: the needle on poles. But it will generate headlines and 394 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:47,400 Speaker 1: perhaps it will mean a bit more in a race 395 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 1: like this where so many Americans really don't like either candidate. 396 00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 3: Tina, thank you so much, Tina Fordham. With this Fordham 397 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 3: Global ands, I should say for Global Insight in London. 398 00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 3: I'm looking for a man in finance. 399 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 4: Trust fun six five they eyes. 400 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:21,360 Speaker 7: I'm looking for a man in finance, just fine, six 401 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 7: five blue eyes, sharpish brain bud, sharp jaw line. 402 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:32,640 Speaker 3: Okay, that's enough to foolery. Sweety's got the jaw line. 403 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 3: I don't have the jaw. This thing won't go away. 404 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 3: That's sad Alex. Sad Alex. Oh yeah, I'm getting it 405 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:42,439 Speaker 3: at home. I come out of the pool with my float. 406 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,359 Speaker 3: He's out and the brat after thought goes, yeah, you 407 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 3: look like a man in finance with the newspapers because 408 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 3: this won't go away this summer. The babe in finance, 409 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 3: Lisa Mateo. 410 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:55,719 Speaker 9: There's so many in the minut The Girl on the 411 00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 9: Couch did the song. She struck a deal with Universal 412 00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:01,680 Speaker 9: Music Group. It's on Spotify. I mean, it's going crazy, 413 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 9: but what it's also done. It sparked this trend because 414 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,960 Speaker 9: in the dating scene, finance bros Are becoming the latest 415 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:13,240 Speaker 9: hot commodity. Okay, women want the finance bros. There was 416 00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,199 Speaker 9: one woman I remember on social media. She held up 417 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 9: the cardboard sign and she said she was looking for 418 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:18,440 Speaker 9: the man in finance. 419 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 3: The article says it's actually a national thing. 420 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:22,159 Speaker 8: It is. 421 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:23,199 Speaker 6: It's growing. 422 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:24,560 Speaker 5: I mean, the thing back in the eighties. 423 00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 6: Let me just see Okay, okay, so maybe it's coming around. 424 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 3: Deep in the song when sad Alex does this deep 425 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,399 Speaker 3: in the song, there's a beauty. I can't paraphrase it 426 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 3: even but she says, basically, you're working so many hours 427 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:37,639 Speaker 3: a week, just give me the keys to the place 428 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:41,320 Speaker 3: in the Hampton's. Does anybody understand these animals where it's 429 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:44,160 Speaker 3: sixty five sixty five hours, this is slow week. 430 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 9: Yeah, that's what one woman who said they actually interviewed 431 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 9: this in the Wall Street Journal. They said she said 432 00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 9: she dated man of finance. She's like, listen, you're never 433 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 9: going to see him. 434 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:54,639 Speaker 6: Put us straight out there, just letting you know. 435 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:58,400 Speaker 3: The wonderful girl at Penn State nailed where she invented 436 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:02,720 Speaker 3: this madness. Maybe will go away by August next By. 437 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,480 Speaker 9: The way I put I put a little man in 438 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 9: finance tribute out to you dude on Twitter. 439 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 6: Tom, So you gotta take that out. 440 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:12,160 Speaker 3: That people. 441 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 9: Okay, here we go. This is gonna spark something with you, Tom. 442 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:21,119 Speaker 9: The high end pet care business, it's the king, this 443 00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,880 Speaker 9: booming market. But here's the thing, it's forcing a lot 444 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,160 Speaker 9: of people into debt. There was one woman she said 445 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:29,920 Speaker 9: she had this MRI scan for her dog two thousand dollars. 446 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 9: Now she's paying thirty percent interest. The dog has no regrets. 447 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,360 Speaker 9: But a lot of people maxing out credit cards, they're 448 00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,560 Speaker 9: tapping into retirement accounts, taking out loans for some of 449 00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:40,560 Speaker 9: these expenses for their pets. 450 00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:42,639 Speaker 6: I mean, they love them. People are more attached to 451 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 6: them nowadays. 452 00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,840 Speaker 3: I would be careful here because you know, I've been 453 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:52,159 Speaker 3: chastised people really care about this. Yes, yeah, I'm in 454 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,200 Speaker 3: the camp like the old days were a dog's a dog, 455 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,199 Speaker 3: move on a cat whatever. You know, we love them 456 00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,240 Speaker 3: all on that. But you're right, people go mental. I mean, 457 00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:01,919 Speaker 3: you know, Chris Whalen, you know I go to the 458 00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:05,479 Speaker 3: Horus Man that Maary Clinic. I just write a tuition. 459 00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:08,879 Speaker 3: Check out the Horus fan for the doctor. Chris Whaling 460 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:12,919 Speaker 3: goes to the preferred dividend that Mary Clinic gets. It's 461 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,199 Speaker 3: in midtown somewhere where the only way you pay is 462 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 3: a JP. Morgan prefer dividend shares. I mean, the bills 463 00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 3: get that high, that's how they do it. 464 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:22,639 Speaker 5: But these guys, are you pet people? 465 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:23,240 Speaker 1: I'm not. 466 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 6: I'm not a pet person. I don't. 467 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:25,560 Speaker 8: I don't. 468 00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:26,480 Speaker 6: I had one growing up. 469 00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,359 Speaker 3: But I just got that bill's teeth done. Are you ready? 470 00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:29,560 Speaker 4: Wait? 471 00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:33,920 Speaker 3: What the thing now is to avoid major issues when 472 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,959 Speaker 3: they're eight or older? Okay? Is you get like we 473 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:40,080 Speaker 3: get our teeth cleaned, except you get your teeth cleaned 474 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:43,800 Speaker 3: and it's like, you know, a rounding error thirteen hundred 475 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,800 Speaker 3: for one in Kennel Fee, who's like got the IQ 476 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:53,440 Speaker 3: of a Kardashian. Kennel Fee wants Whiting as well to 477 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:59,120 Speaker 3: writer and it's out of control. It connects. 478 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:01,880 Speaker 6: Okay, I want to talk about Netflix. This was really good. 479 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,560 Speaker 9: You mentioned Lucas Shaw writing from Paris for his latest newsletter. Okay, 480 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 9: he was talking about Netflix, one of the biggest players, 481 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,119 Speaker 9: but when it comes to advertising, he says not so much. 482 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:13,879 Speaker 9: He says the setup for success was there Netflix. They 483 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,640 Speaker 9: built this advertising business with the help from Microsoft they 484 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:18,760 Speaker 9: added that advertising supported. 485 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,880 Speaker 6: Tier for subscribers. But in the US they're advertising tier. 486 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:23,480 Speaker 6: It's just a fraction of the size of. 487 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 9: Peacock, Hulu, Disney, Amazon Prime. They didn't deliver as many impressions. 488 00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:32,400 Speaker 9: The relationship with Microsoft is now strained, and it lets 489 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,320 Speaker 9: go of its head of advertising. 490 00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 3: Amazon. 491 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,639 Speaker 5: No, no, they're not, and it's okay. They don't have 492 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:42,040 Speaker 5: to be. But they will get it because advertisers will 493 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,800 Speaker 5: come to them, even if they don't even ask. Advertisers 494 00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:46,640 Speaker 5: will come to them because that's where the eyeballs are. 495 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:48,400 Speaker 5: So they'll get there act together. I'm not too sure 496 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:49,080 Speaker 5: they will be a. 497 00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 3: Lucas Lucas alluded to that well, but well, I think 498 00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,360 Speaker 3: my amateur take is Amazon sort of on a rule 499 00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 3: right now. 500 00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,399 Speaker 5: Amazon's is awesome. I mean they I mean, you know, 501 00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,000 Speaker 5: the big concern was there's only a duopoly here, you know, 502 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,960 Speaker 5: kind of Google and Facebook. Now you have a viable 503 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:08,080 Speaker 5: third digital advertising alternative, and that's Amazon. 504 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,399 Speaker 3: There's a guy out on YouTube blood chat. He sends 505 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,600 Speaker 3: his dog, it's one of those yep yep dogs, ways 506 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:17,440 Speaker 3: like eight pounds to the Marie Antoinette veterinary clik. 507 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:19,200 Speaker 8: There you go. 508 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 3: You can yeah, I can't imagine what the shampoo of 509 00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:23,879 Speaker 3: the milk. 510 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,680 Speaker 6: Cut got next, and then laugh one. 511 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:28,879 Speaker 9: It is just a little look this from Fortune magazine 512 00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:31,639 Speaker 9: into remember how Walmart came out with this new managerial 513 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 9: pay boost. You know, they wanted to boost morale and 514 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:37,119 Speaker 9: help reduce turnover, so they raise their manager's salary. So 515 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,000 Speaker 9: there's one manager he was straight out and he talked 516 00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,399 Speaker 9: about his salary. He's forty five his base salary of 517 00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:45,240 Speaker 9: one hundred and sixty eight thousand. He's a Walmart store 518 00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:48,720 Speaker 9: manager after that increase, but he said with bonuses at 519 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,160 Speaker 9: stock grants, Walmart says he can make up a five 520 00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:54,159 Speaker 9: hundred and twenty four thousand dollars a year as a 521 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,280 Speaker 9: store manager. This is a guy who's a Kurdish immigrant. 522 00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,159 Speaker 9: He turns the retailer nineteen ninety nine. Started as a 523 00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,960 Speaker 9: part time worker making eight dollars an hour, and he 524 00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:05,840 Speaker 9: just kept moving up the ranks, no college degree, just 525 00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:07,080 Speaker 9: kept moving up, moving up. 526 00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:07,399 Speaker 1: Moving up. 527 00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,240 Speaker 5: I mean some of these Walmart stores they employed hundreds 528 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:12,960 Speaker 5: of people, and I mean it's a it's a company 529 00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,360 Speaker 5: in and of itself, these individual stores. It's a it's 530 00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:18,160 Speaker 5: a meaningful small business. 531 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,119 Speaker 3: And like we look at ups and one hundred and 532 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:23,879 Speaker 3: seventy thousand or this wonderful story. What enthuses me is 533 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:28,520 Speaker 3: in that store, there's probably twenty other people on the 534 00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,720 Speaker 3: same track, and they're not getting the headline five hundred 535 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,919 Speaker 3: thousand income. But you got people starting, like you say it, 536 00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:36,760 Speaker 3: eight bucks an hour, twelve bucks an hour. 537 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:37,440 Speaker 8: They stick with it. 538 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,840 Speaker 3: They're popping one fifty one seventy two hundred. That's really cool, 539 00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:45,480 Speaker 3: it is? That was strong. Let's do finance, bro every day? 540 00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:47,000 Speaker 6: This yeah, exactly. 541 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:50,399 Speaker 2: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best 542 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:55,200 Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 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