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Speaker 2: Stay in in the TMT space if you will. We're
Speaker 2: going to talk about check in with anorog Ronnie. He's
Speaker 2: a Bloomberg senior tech analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence ANRAG. You know,
Speaker 2: Microsoft as well as anybody put into context for us,
Speaker 2: this cybersecurity attack has been certainly at the top of
Speaker 2: the news here this morning, and it just kind of,
Speaker 2: I think, at least to me, is surprising that a
Speaker 2: company with the resources and the technology expertise of Microsoft
Speaker 2: that they could in fact still be subject to this
Speaker 2: type of risk. How should we think about it?
Speaker 3: Yeah, Paul, when it comes to almost all the major
Speaker 3: tech companies, this is probably the most important and biggest
Speaker 3: risk for them. And again, you know, whether it's Microsoft
Speaker 3: or Amazon or Google, you know, this is one of
Speaker 3: the biggest worries for all of us. Is you know,
Speaker 3: you wake up one morning and you see a big
Speaker 3: outage out there, I mean almost a year ago. We
Speaker 3: remember that CrowdStrike problem and what it did to you know,
Speaker 3: airports and all the other things. Now, but in this
Speaker 3: particular case, I think it's a lot less problematic than
Speaker 3: what we saw a year ago. This is primarily based
Speaker 3: on certain on premise software. I mean, there is an
Speaker 3: on premise version of scarepoint software that they have. This
Speaker 3: is the it's only affecting those particular workloads, so it's
Speaker 3: not as widespread as some of the other areas we
Speaker 3: have seen.
Speaker 4: Now, what does this mean for cybersecurity companies?
Speaker 3: I mean it's a good thing for them. They are
Speaker 3: I mean to be honest, over the last fifteen years
Speaker 3: that I can remember, they're probably the one area it
Speaker 3: doesn't matter what the macro environment is, they continue to grow,
Speaker 3: you know, bigger and bigger. That's because there's so many
Speaker 3: little nuances that I have to be protected. These networks
Speaker 3: have multiple software from multiple vendors, and a lot of
Speaker 3: these companies do some unique things go prevent them endpoints security,
Speaker 3: you know, analytics, you'd name it. I mean, there is
Speaker 3: no shortage off I would say funding for a lot
Speaker 3: of those companies.
Speaker 2: So how do you characters or how do investors characterize
Speaker 2: just cyber crime risk for some of the big tech
Speaker 2: names that you know, the MAGS seven names are just
Speaker 2: a big tech names in general. It's something that we
Speaker 2: don't really talk about too often, do.
Speaker 3: We No, In fact that as I said, I mean,
Speaker 3: I've always said that this is probably the biggest risk
Speaker 3: that faces all of us because remember, now think about it,
Speaker 3: like AWS takes care of a lot of startups site.
Speaker 3: Now you see a problem with that network, the rest
Speaker 3: that then go down. Same thing you could say with
Speaker 3: Google Cloud platform, Microsoft's cloud platform. This particular incidence is
Speaker 3: only for the on premise applications, so you know, in
Speaker 3: a roundabout way, maybe this helps Microsoft in the long
Speaker 3: run that those customers say, you know what, I need
Speaker 3: to move online. I need to move more worklows to
Speaker 3: the cloud. But in totality, I mean you look at
Speaker 3: it from a cyber insurance point of view, insurance companies
Speaker 3: don't even want to go down that route. I mean,
Speaker 3: this is a I mean one of the biggest hidden
Speaker 3: risks for all of us, especially as most of our
Speaker 3: savings are you know, digital and you know placed in
Speaker 3: not in you know, safe boxes, but in investments somewhere.
Speaker 4: Digitally and honor again the text banks. We also had
Speaker 4: some IPO news. You had fig Mal looking to raise
Speaker 4: about a billion dollars us ipo.
Speaker 5: What is Figma?
Speaker 6: What do they do?
Speaker 4: What's their market value?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I was, you know, this is probably one of
Speaker 3: the more interesting companies that I have come across in
Speaker 3: a long while. A few years ago, Adobe made around
Speaker 3: for them, you know, paid twenty billion dollars to buy them,
Speaker 3: that didn't deal didn't go through. They you know, Adobe
Speaker 3: ended up paying pigma billion dollars as sort of breakup fee.
Speaker 3: But now they're going public, so very unique software in
Speaker 3: their market. What they do nobody else does it so well.
Speaker 3: They help you design application all the way from ideation
Speaker 3: to you know, publish applications or you could say, issuing
Speaker 3: applications out there for people. So, you know, we own
Speaker 3: a white boat. You want to discuss this idea with
Speaker 3: a team. Phenomenal software. It has very high market share
Speaker 3: and at this point, to be honest, I do we
Speaker 3: had one product that had some overlap with them, but
Speaker 3: frankly speaking, there isn't a large company out there that's
Speaker 3: a credible competitor for them. So we think this is
Speaker 3: going to be an area where see strong interest. We
Speaker 3: anticipate sales growth north of forty percent both for this
Speaker 3: year and next year. We think revenue could be one
Speaker 3: point six billion by the end of next year. And
Speaker 3: you know, our analysis indicates post evaluation somewhere between you know,
Speaker 3: nineteen and twenty three billion dollars or twenty one billion
Speaker 3: at the midpoint.
Speaker 2: And propose stock symbol for this pending IPOs FIG Bankers
Speaker 2: and Morgan Stanley Goldman Sachs all in a company and
Speaker 2: JP Morgan, so the blue chippers there for that deal
Speaker 2: and anag in your software space. We've had a couple
Speaker 2: of pretty good deals this year. Circle Internet Group wore
Speaker 2: we've I mean, do you expect more?
Speaker 3: I think that. I mean, if you have the capacity
Speaker 3: to go out in this market and raise capital, this
Speaker 3: is really good valuations. I'm very nice right now. I mean,
Speaker 3: I would strongly encourage if there is somebody who's looking
Speaker 3: at it. But at the same time, you know there
Speaker 3: is an issue about do you want to go and
Speaker 3: see your work being scrutinized. Public funding is also very good.
Speaker 3: There is so much private capital out there, so it
Speaker 3: really depends on what somebody is doing. Last year, we
Speaker 3: saw an IPO came out Service Tit and just in
Speaker 3: the first two months or first two quarters of there
Speaker 3: coming out as an IPO, they actually thought demand go
Speaker 3: because people recognize what this company has. I think the
Speaker 3: same could happen to Figma when you know a lot
Speaker 3: of people don't know what these guys do, and you
Speaker 3: know that recognizes the value of the software or the
Speaker 3: company just by going public.
Speaker 2: All right, very good. Anna Agarana, Senior Technology Channels, Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 2: He's in a Chicago. You were talking about a little
Speaker 2: bit about MICROSOFTIC at the cyber security issue that it
Speaker 2: is dealing with. Plus we got some IPOs in the
Speaker 2: software space picking back up. It's always a good sign here.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 4: All right, we're earlier this morning of Verizon CEO Hans Vestsberg.
Speaker 4: He talked to us, talked to Bloomberg Shinali boss Sake
Speaker 4: about some of the things that the company is doing
Speaker 4: right now. They just had their earnings report, but now
Speaker 4: we want to get the analyst view on that. So
Speaker 4: for that we'll bring in John Butler. He's Bloomberg Intelligence
Speaker 4: senior telecom analyst on these Verizon earnings. So John, good
Speaker 4: beat second quarter revenue, raise the profit outlook, what's making
Speaker 4: the company so optimistic?
Speaker 7: So I would characterize when I look at Verizon, I
Speaker 7: think of the phrase game of the inches, right. I
Speaker 7: think the improvements here quartering and quarter rout are incrementally better.
Speaker 7: They're edging towards that acquisition of Frontier, which is really
Speaker 7: going to change the game for them. But in the meantime,
Speaker 7: they put a lot of changes in place in terms
Speaker 7: of their go to market strategy, how they're combating promotions
Speaker 7: coming from T Mobile and AT and T and on
Speaker 7: the margin quarter in and quarter out, I just see
Speaker 7: them doing a better and better job. I think all
Speaker 7: the actions they've taken are starting to work. And so
Speaker 7: taking the long view here, I really think Verizon is
Speaker 7: improving just quarter and in quarter out. And this was
Speaker 7: another quarter where you could look at it in isolation
Speaker 7: and say, you know, it was a solid quarter, a
Speaker 7: little bit mixed on some of the metrics, But I
Speaker 7: think I'm balanced better than last quarter in last year.
Speaker 2: John, what's kind of the positioning of Verizon in the marketplace? Like,
Speaker 2: I've been a long time Verizon wireless customers since the
Speaker 2: beginning of service, actually, and I guess I was initially
Speaker 2: drawn to it because I thought they had the best network.
Speaker 2: So quality, is that still the case because it seems
Speaker 2: like T Mobile's gotten a lot better in quality and
Speaker 2: AT and T. I don't know.
Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, Paul, you bring up a good point.
Speaker 7: I think there's a question mark out there as to
Speaker 7: whether Verizon still has the best network versus T Mobile
Speaker 7: and AT and T. But I think they have a
Speaker 7: slight edge they are in terms of coverage. And it's
Speaker 7: interesting a lot of people ask me about wireless, who
Speaker 7: was the best network? Who should I choose? And the
Speaker 7: one thing that people are always asking about is how's
Speaker 7: their coverage? I think coverage is very important to people,
Speaker 7: and I think when you think on that metric. In
Speaker 7: terms of that metric, for Rizon delivers the bars on
Speaker 7: your smartphone probably more than T Mobile and AT and
Speaker 7: T in terms of download speeds, though I suspect that
Speaker 7: T Mobile probably is gaining the edge here now.
Speaker 4: What about prices. Did did did Verizon increase their prices?
Speaker 4: If so, did that help?
Speaker 2: So?
Speaker 7: We did see in all the carriers are increasing prices
Speaker 7: right now as the market matures and new user growth
Speaker 7: is slowing considerably. The only way you're going to grow
Speaker 7: that important service revenue metric is by raising prices. They
Speaker 7: tend to do it on older plans. For Verizon, stunt
Speaker 7: it over the past six months. As if you look
Speaker 7: over the past year so as AT and T and
Speaker 7: T Mobile, that's flowing through and it's helping to boost
Speaker 7: the service revenue. I think over time they're adding in
Speaker 7: those little extras like you know, device insurance and perks
Speaker 7: like you know, added content that you can purchase at
Speaker 7: a discount through through Verizon, and I think all that
Speaker 7: together is going to continue to provide a lift to
Speaker 7: service revenue. It's nothing special. Again, I'm looking forward to
Speaker 7: that Frontier acquisition where they're going to buy you access
Speaker 7: to two million fiber broadband subscribers and eight million fiber
Speaker 7: homes passed, because once they get a Frontier under the hood,
Speaker 7: they're going to be able to bundle that wireless service
Speaker 7: with fiber and I think that's going to help to
Speaker 7: really drive renewed subscriber growth.
Speaker 2: So, John, use of cash heer, how do they kind
Speaker 2: of allocate it between debt reduction. They've got a lot
Speaker 2: of debt on their balance sheet versus funding that big
Speaker 2: juicy six percent plus dividen yield, so.
Speaker 7: They're doing both. Paul, I think free cash flow is
Speaker 7: going to get a lift from HR one, the new
Speaker 7: tax legislation. It's also a very cash flow rich business.
Speaker 7: As we exit the year. This year, they'll have most
Speaker 7: of their celves sites upgraded with the new C band
Speaker 7: midband spectrum, which again is improving network speeds and enhancing
Speaker 7: their coverage. So that whole project is going to begin
Speaker 7: to wind down a bit as we get to your end,
Speaker 7: so they'll be able to sort of maintain spending without
Speaker 7: having to increase, which is constructive to free cash flow growth.
Speaker 2: All right, John, thanks so much. We appreciate it as always.
Speaker 2: John Butler, Senior telecom analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you
Speaker 1: get your podcasts. Or watch us live on YouTube. Let's
Speaker 1: go back to the car business and we talk about
Speaker 1: a name. We don't talk I don't think enough about
Speaker 1: or as much as maybe we could. And that is Stillantis.
Speaker 2: I think about the old Chrysler with Fiat and all
Speaker 2: that kind of stuff. I'm not sure what all the
Speaker 2: brands are there, but they at two point seven billion
Speaker 2: dollar charge. Here Steve Manner, Global Autos and Industrials Research
Speaker 2: Channels for Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins us. Here, Steve, what's
Speaker 2: going on with our friends at Stalantis.
Speaker 6: Yeah, so they reported the preliminary first half numbers today.
Speaker 6: They booked a loss and a charge of three point
Speaker 6: three billion. A lot of that is, you know, canceling
Speaker 6: the fuel cell R and D business. They're canceling like
Speaker 6: an EV from Maserati, taking some other charges on recalls
Speaker 6: in tariffs. So overall, at the end of the day,
Speaker 6: I think the if you listen to the call, there's
Speaker 6: really no new bad news, which is good news for
Speaker 6: the company. I don't think it can get any any worse.
Speaker 6: So then that's why the stock's actually reacting positively at
Speaker 6: the moment.
Speaker 4: Steve, what about the president's efforts to dial back the
Speaker 4: sport for evs is that affecting them as well.
Speaker 6: You know, they are revisiting the EV business, not dialing back,
Speaker 6: not so much in Europe, but revisiting it definitely in
Speaker 6: North America. And one thing that it's it's really bad
Speaker 6: for the quarter for them was really their North American business.
Speaker 6: Their North American business drives most of the profit. Shipments
Speaker 6: were down twenty five percent in the first half year
Speaker 6: on year, and a lot of that is controllable. One
Speaker 6: of the things, a couple of things that they are
Speaker 6: doing to kind of arrest that decline is not only
Speaker 6: cutting back on production, but they're relaunching a couple of
Speaker 6: popular models that they've they discontinue. One of them is
Speaker 6: the jeep Jaer Cherokee. It's going to come back later
Speaker 6: this year. And more importantly to stop market share loss
Speaker 6: on their RAM trucks is they're going to reintroduce the
Speaker 6: V eight, so you know, they can't you know, they delayed,
Speaker 6: they didn't really stay canceled, but the delay the EV
Speaker 6: product for the Ram trucks. But now in reintroducing, uh,
Speaker 6: the V eight, which is you know, the biggest engines
Speaker 6: you can get for a gasoline engine you can get
Speaker 6: on a on a truck.
Speaker 2: So where is stalanthis in the world of big auto
Speaker 2: how do you how do they position themselves? I think
Speaker 2: the four GM, Volkswagen, the Chinese players. I'm just not
Speaker 2: sure where to put Stalantis these days.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think, I mean, they do have an important
Speaker 6: role to play in the auto market. They're really strong
Speaker 6: in Europe's particularly in there what they call the B
Speaker 6: and C segment, which is the hatchback the compacts up
Speaker 6: compact segment.
Speaker 7: Uh.
Speaker 6: They also have really high market share in their commercial
Speaker 6: vehicle business. This is like their Ram transit man that
Speaker 6: you see. You know, a lot of contractors use. You know,
Speaker 6: they have thirty percent market share in Europe. But and
Speaker 6: then again Ram truck is one of the most popular
Speaker 6: pickup trucks in the US market. Unfortunately, you know, for
Speaker 6: and GM has taken share from them because they didn't
Speaker 6: have the V eight when they talked about EV's and
Speaker 6: in more few efficient trucks. But you know, the US
Speaker 6: market is quite different. Commercial users do love the power
Speaker 6: the torque, so they're reintesting reintroducing the V eight just
Speaker 6: to try to bring a game more market share back.
Speaker 4: And they have a new CEO and Tonio Foaloza. He's
Speaker 4: in office for roughly a month, so he's just getting there.
Speaker 4: What are some of the top items on his agenda?
Speaker 4: Has he talked about it?
Speaker 6: No, but we'll hear more about it on July twenty ninth.
Speaker 6: So today's call was just a proliminary, proliminary, preliminary call
Speaker 6: on first half. We're going to hear from the new
Speaker 6: CEO on the twenty ninth, And I think a lot
Speaker 6: of the questions still in the air is, you know,
Speaker 6: what is the strategic direction for the company in terms
Speaker 6: of evs, How are they going to manage the tariffs,
Speaker 6: which is still a big unknown because because you know,
Speaker 6: negotiation is still ongoing with Europe. And then you know,
Speaker 6: what is what are they going to do do with
Speaker 6: some of the kind of slower performing brands like Maserati,
Speaker 6: which is really draining a lot of their cash.
Speaker 2: All right, Steve, thanks so much. Appreciate that Global autos
Speaker 2: Research channels for Bloomberg Intelligence.
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Speaker 2: All right, at least Mitello Paul Sweeney live here on
Speaker 2: our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio streaming live on YouTube as well.
Speaker 2: I consider myself a pizza aficionado, So by definition, I'm
Speaker 2: not really a Domino's person because I live in a
Speaker 2: world where there's great local yes, but for a lot
Speaker 2: of the world that's not the case. And so they
Speaker 2: depend on the Dominoes of the world. And they came
Speaker 2: out and you saw that in the number study, some
Speaker 2: pretty good numbers. Let's break it down with Michael Halem,
Speaker 2: Senior Restaurant and Foods are analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. So
Speaker 2: some pretty good news out of Domino's, Mike, what'd you
Speaker 2: take away?
Speaker 5: Yeah, listen, they've they have some nice tailwinds this year.
Speaker 3: Stuff.
Speaker 5: Gross Pizza has done really well. It's it's really driven
Speaker 5: some strong same star sales here in the first half.
Speaker 5: You know, the industries about flat in the US, and
Speaker 5: you know, they drove are almost three and a half
Speaker 5: percent comp here in the second quarter, so outperforming the
Speaker 5: market by a pretty significant margin. And they also rolled
Speaker 5: out door dash to all their stores in this second quarter.
Speaker 5: And so they're going to start ramping up the marketing
Speaker 5: there and that should give a nice, nice boost the
Speaker 5: shares over the next twelve months or so and maybe beyond.
Speaker 5: And so yeah, for those two reasons, you know, we
Speaker 5: expect them to continue to outpace their QSR Pizza and
Speaker 5: QSR Burger competitors throughout the year end.
Speaker 4: What about their loyalty programs, they know, a lot of
Speaker 4: analysts were saying, you know what, this is going to
Speaker 4: be a big, big boost for them. Did it help
Speaker 4: out we're doing.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's been they that was the other thing they cited.
Speaker 5: And so, you know, they they rely heavily on households
Speaker 5: making you know, fifty sixty thousand dollars a year and below.
Speaker 5: And so you know, as everyone knows, that's been a
Speaker 5: very weak segment of the restaurant industry for the last
Speaker 5: few years due to all the inflation, right, and so
Speaker 5: to bring people back in, they started lowering the redemption
Speaker 5: the number of points needed to make redemptions on the
Speaker 5: loyalty program, and it's been successfully bringing in more carry
Speaker 5: out consumers, which are typically lower income, right, And so
Speaker 5: by bringing those consumers in, you know, it's definitely given
Speaker 5: a boost to their traffic over the last three quarters
Speaker 5: or so.
Speaker 2: So, what's Dominoes and some of the other restaurant chains
Speaker 2: that you cover, Mike, what are they saying about tariffs
Speaker 2: and how that might impact their costs and how much
Speaker 2: of their costs will they take in margin versus pest
Speaker 2: along to consumers? Is their consensus building?
Speaker 5: It depends on the chain. But you know, luckily, restaurants
Speaker 5: source a large majority of their product in the in
Speaker 5: the country in which they're operating, right, So Dominoes operates
Speaker 5: in over eighty markets, and and all of their products,
Speaker 5: you know, all of their countries largely source everything domestically, right,
Speaker 5: And so restaurants are in a good space, you know,
Speaker 5: the restaurants companies, the stocks got hammered back in April.
Speaker 5: You know, I think that was largely a case of
Speaker 5: the baby being thrown out with the bathwater, because restaurants
Speaker 5: have very low exposure to tariffs, and I think we've
Speaker 5: seen that in the rebound since April. You know, some
Speaker 5: of the restaurant names we cover, you know, two ones
Speaker 5: that we like, Shakeshack and Crackerball. They've rallied one hundred
Speaker 5: percent over the last couple months. And I think they're
Speaker 5: in a good place because you know, if people do
Speaker 5: recognize some price increases at retail, at the mall, stuff
Speaker 5: like that, at whatever it is, fifteen to twenty percent,
Speaker 5: they're not going to see those same increases in restaurants
Speaker 5: and may you know, look at as a better value.
Speaker 4: So people are still dining out as much as they
Speaker 4: used to because I know, I consider myself thrifty. So
Speaker 4: I cook the entire week and then we pick one
Speaker 4: night where we go out to eat. It's a Friday,
Speaker 4: you know, because Mama don't cook on Fridays. So are
Speaker 4: more do you see that kind of a change in
Speaker 4: the habits of the people who are going to eat out?
Speaker 5: Well, we've seen that, there's no doubt, especially due to
Speaker 5: all the inflation. We've seen traffic decline now for several
Speaker 5: years in a row. But restaurants have been able to,
Speaker 5: you know, the ones that are doing well have been
Speaker 5: able to more than offset that with price increases. Right
Speaker 5: and obviously the best performers of the bunch are absolutely
Speaker 5: able to drive traffic. And it's that's really about providing
Speaker 5: a very good experience. Right now, people are very discerning
Speaker 5: about where they're going to spend their restaurant dollars when
Speaker 5: they go out. They want to make sure they're not
Speaker 5: going to have a bad experience, and so they're continuing
Speaker 5: to go to places. You know, think Texas Roadhouse is
Speaker 5: one that really stands out. They're going to a place
Speaker 5: where they know they can get good value on the
Speaker 5: plate for what they pay, a very consistent experience, right,
Speaker 5: And because of that, you're seeing a wider divergence between
Speaker 5: the winners and losers in the restaurant space.
Speaker 2: Mike, how about labor? President Trump has effectively shut the
Speaker 2: southern border. Have your companies who typically who rely to
Speaker 2: some degree on that labor force, are they seeing it yet?
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, everybody's logged onto e verify and most
Speaker 5: of our chains, you know, are making sure that their
Speaker 5: employees are have papers and are operating legally. It's more
Speaker 5: of an impact to I would say, the independent restaurants
Speaker 5: in the country. But then you know what happens is
Speaker 5: that ends up being a price competition, and so it
Speaker 5: drives up prices for labor. And we're seeing another year
Speaker 5: of about four to five percent wag ery inflation in
Speaker 5: the restaurant industry this year.
Speaker 4: And are we changing how people are changing how they eat. Right, So,
Speaker 4: in the last thirty seconds or so, GLP ones. Our
Speaker 4: restaurant's cutting back on those portions, making things smaller, you know,
Speaker 4: less on your plate.
Speaker 5: Well they are, but mainly because of inflation.
Speaker 3: Well there you go.
Speaker 5: You know, GLP ones, you know over time, you know,
Speaker 5: we expect that to be the biggest way to combat
Speaker 5: that is to decrease the portion sizes and to make
Speaker 5: sure you have some healthy options on the menu.
Speaker 2: Michael Helen, Thanks, We always appreciate chatting with you. Getting
Speaker 2: the lay of the land in the restaurant business. Again Domino's,
Speaker 2: but got some good numbers here today, so good for them.
Speaker 2: Michael Helen a senior restaurant in food service analyst or
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence. He's based down there in our Princeton office.
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