1 00:00:15,370 --> 00:00:21,490 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Hello Tim Harford here, and I have a special 2 00:00:21,570 --> 00:00:23,650 Speaker 1: start to the year for you. I've been sitting on 3 00:00:23,690 --> 00:00:27,610 Speaker 1: some great ideas for gripping cautionary tales. Their stories full 4 00:00:27,650 --> 00:00:31,490 Speaker 1: of exactly the kind of instructive downfalls and disasters I love, 5 00:00:31,770 --> 00:00:34,010 Speaker 1: but I've never quite found the right place to tell 6 00:00:34,050 --> 00:00:37,450 Speaker 1: them during our normal shows. They're cracking yarns that just 7 00:00:37,610 --> 00:00:41,690 Speaker 1: don't require a full episode to recount. That's why I 8 00:00:41,730 --> 00:00:45,410 Speaker 1: came up with Cautionary Tales shorts, and so far these 9 00:00:45,490 --> 00:00:49,210 Speaker 1: bite size stories have only been available to Pushkin Plus subscribers, 10 00:00:49,370 --> 00:00:51,810 Speaker 1: but I'm going to let you hear two of them here, 11 00:00:52,090 --> 00:00:55,250 Speaker 1: back to back. The first of our Cautionary Tales shorts 12 00:00:55,570 --> 00:01:03,690 Speaker 1: starts in another world, just another day in Azaoth. Some 13 00:01:03,770 --> 00:01:07,770 Speaker 1: citizens are enjoying themselves, indulging in the everyday activities that 14 00:01:07,930 --> 00:01:16,330 Speaker 1: Azarov has to for exploring, accepting quests, trading, hanging out 15 00:01:16,410 --> 00:01:21,010 Speaker 1: with their pet scorpids and octopodes, or getting into fights, 16 00:01:22,290 --> 00:01:27,010 Speaker 1: living their best lives in a fantasy kingdom. But for 17 00:01:27,050 --> 00:01:31,330 Speaker 1: the mighty heroes tough enough to enter the unexplored jungle 18 00:01:31,410 --> 00:01:35,490 Speaker 1: realm of zul Gurub, the expectation was that they would 19 00:01:35,610 --> 00:01:41,250 Speaker 1: leave a dream and enter a nightmare the domain of 20 00:01:41,290 --> 00:01:50,690 Speaker 1: the blood god Haka the Soul Fled. What am I 21 00:01:50,730 --> 00:01:56,010 Speaker 1: talking about? A computer game called World of Warcraft. But 22 00:01:56,210 --> 00:02:01,250 Speaker 1: on that particular day, September thirteenth, two thousand and five, 23 00:02:02,210 --> 00:02:05,610 Speaker 1: something was happening inside that computer game that was to 24 00:02:05,690 --> 00:02:12,450 Speaker 1: become strangely prophetic. The nightmare of Hakar the Soul Flayer 25 00:02:13,090 --> 00:02:18,250 Speaker 1: was not going to be confined to zul Gurub. I'm 26 00:02:18,330 --> 00:02:44,970 Speaker 1: Tim Harford, and you're listening to cautionary tales. World of 27 00:02:45,050 --> 00:02:50,330 Speaker 1: Warcraft is a massively multiplayer online role playing game that 28 00:02:50,370 --> 00:02:53,530 Speaker 1: means hundreds of thousands of people are online at the 29 00:02:53,570 --> 00:02:58,170 Speaker 1: same time, able to interact with each other by talking, trading, brawling, 30 00:02:58,450 --> 00:03:03,850 Speaker 1: casting spells, or teaming up in epic battles. Stories in 31 00:03:03,930 --> 00:03:07,170 Speaker 1: World of Warcraft emerge from what the players do as 32 00:03:07,210 --> 00:03:11,730 Speaker 1: they interact together, acting to what the game throws at them. 33 00:03:11,810 --> 00:03:16,690 Speaker 1: In Warcraft, those players take on the role of fantastical characters, 34 00:03:16,730 --> 00:03:21,290 Speaker 1: such as crafty rogues, virtuous paladins, or a moral warlocks. 35 00:03:22,690 --> 00:03:25,890 Speaker 1: Players who play a lot have characters who leveled up, 36 00:03:26,210 --> 00:03:31,570 Speaker 1: becoming tougher and tougher, effectively becoming a mythical hero in 37 00:03:31,610 --> 00:03:37,290 Speaker 1: a world filled with mediocrities. Mythical heroes need worthy challenges, 38 00:03:37,490 --> 00:03:41,450 Speaker 1: and that is why from time to time, Blizzard Entertainment, 39 00:03:41,810 --> 00:03:45,690 Speaker 1: the company that produces World of Warcraft, adds new realms, 40 00:03:46,010 --> 00:03:51,210 Speaker 1: new quests, new and terrible foes, foes such as the 41 00:03:51,330 --> 00:03:55,090 Speaker 1: blood god hack Are, the soul player, who lurked deep 42 00:03:55,170 --> 00:04:01,290 Speaker 1: in the realm of Zulub. As soon as Blizzard Entertainment 43 00:04:01,450 --> 00:04:06,050 Speaker 1: rolled out the software update that created Zulgurub, curious players 44 00:04:06,290 --> 00:04:11,490 Speaker 1: naturally sent their characters in to have a look. Inexperienced 45 00:04:11,610 --> 00:04:15,090 Speaker 1: low level characters didn't stand a chance. Either they were 46 00:04:15,130 --> 00:04:19,930 Speaker 1: slain or they quickly retreated to safer regions. Zulgarub was 47 00:04:19,970 --> 00:04:23,010 Speaker 1: designed to be a tough challenge for high level characters. 48 00:04:23,130 --> 00:04:28,050 Speaker 1: The mightiest heroes in the world. Hakar, the soul Flayer, 49 00:04:28,370 --> 00:04:31,290 Speaker 1: could place a curse on people with the temerity to 50 00:04:31,330 --> 00:04:37,730 Speaker 1: confront him, a curse called corrupted blood. If your character 51 00:04:37,810 --> 00:04:41,090 Speaker 1: had corrupted blood, the game would depict a fountain of 52 00:04:41,210 --> 00:04:45,050 Speaker 1: gore spurting from them with a squelching sound, and their 53 00:04:45,090 --> 00:04:53,010 Speaker 1: health would start draining away. That could be fatal almost 54 00:04:53,050 --> 00:04:56,970 Speaker 1: immediately for low level characters, but for the high level 55 00:04:57,050 --> 00:05:00,050 Speaker 1: heroes fighting hack Are the soul Flayer. It was more 56 00:05:00,130 --> 00:05:03,970 Speaker 1: of an inconvenience. They could keep themselves alive while the 57 00:05:04,050 --> 00:05:08,690 Speaker 1: curse lasted. After a while, it expired. Oh and the 58 00:05:09,210 --> 00:05:13,970 Speaker 1: the thing about corrupted blood. It was contagious. It would 59 00:05:14,010 --> 00:05:17,810 Speaker 1: spread between allies from one character to another if they 60 00:05:17,810 --> 00:05:22,850 Speaker 1: didn't socially distance. Is this starting to ring any bells? 61 00:05:29,290 --> 00:05:33,250 Speaker 1: Diseases spread when their carriers move around. It could be 62 00:05:33,330 --> 00:05:35,890 Speaker 1: fleas on rats in the hold of a sailing ship 63 00:05:36,170 --> 00:05:39,930 Speaker 1: carrying the Black Death across the world, or infected air 64 00:05:39,970 --> 00:05:43,570 Speaker 1: passengers moving coronavirus around at the speed of an airliner. 65 00:05:44,690 --> 00:05:49,250 Speaker 1: In World of Warcraft, people move even faster they teleport. 66 00:05:50,170 --> 00:05:53,650 Speaker 1: Players of World of Warcraft don't pay their subscription fees 67 00:05:53,730 --> 00:05:56,770 Speaker 1: just so their characters can walk around for weeks on end, 68 00:05:57,050 --> 00:06:00,570 Speaker 1: and so the game allows characters to teleport instantly from 69 00:06:00,610 --> 00:06:05,730 Speaker 1: a dangerous area like Zulgudub to a safe, well populated city. 70 00:06:06,770 --> 00:06:10,530 Speaker 1: You can see where this is going. A powerful infected 71 00:06:10,610 --> 00:06:13,810 Speaker 1: character could blink out of a titanic struggle in the 72 00:06:13,850 --> 00:06:16,930 Speaker 1: heart of Zulgarub and reappear in the middle of a 73 00:06:16,970 --> 00:06:22,850 Speaker 1: densely populated city, spreading the curse. Blizzard Entertainment didn't want 74 00:06:22,890 --> 00:06:25,890 Speaker 1: that to happen. Corrupted Blood was supposed to be a 75 00:06:25,970 --> 00:06:29,210 Speaker 1: challenge only for those who chose to enter Zulgar Ub, 76 00:06:30,010 --> 00:06:33,930 Speaker 1: so Blizzards programmers included a line of code that would 77 00:06:33,970 --> 00:06:37,690 Speaker 1: automatically cancel the corrupted blood effect at the moment that 78 00:06:37,730 --> 00:06:43,530 Speaker 1: a character left the battle with Hackar. Except for some reason, 79 00:06:44,490 --> 00:06:50,850 Speaker 1: corrupted blood escaped from Zulgar Rub anyway. In Azarov's busy cities. 80 00:06:51,090 --> 00:06:54,050 Speaker 1: It spread to low level characters who would be dead 81 00:06:54,130 --> 00:06:58,130 Speaker 1: in a few seconds. It also spread to the computer 82 00:06:58,250 --> 00:07:02,090 Speaker 1: controlled characters that kept the game's economy running in the background. 83 00:07:03,130 --> 00:07:08,650 Speaker 1: These bot characters were nobody special market traders, innkeepers, priests, 84 00:07:08,730 --> 00:07:12,970 Speaker 1: or town guards, but in the cities these bots were 85 00:07:13,010 --> 00:07:16,650 Speaker 1: everywhere because it was the simplest way to keep the 86 00:07:16,690 --> 00:07:20,490 Speaker 1: game running smoothly. These computer characters were programmed to be 87 00:07:20,850 --> 00:07:26,610 Speaker 1: almost immortal, not a problem usually, but now it meant 88 00:07:26,650 --> 00:07:32,210 Speaker 1: that they could serve as asymptomatic carriers of the curse. Great. 89 00:07:32,490 --> 00:07:36,010 Speaker 1: Now you have these invulnerable extras strolling around in the 90 00:07:36,010 --> 00:07:39,410 Speaker 1: background of the game, serving drinks and snacks with a 91 00:07:39,490 --> 00:07:44,370 Speaker 1: side order of deadly corrupted blood. The stage was set 92 00:07:44,770 --> 00:07:50,210 Speaker 1: for the world's first virtual pandemic. It had started in 93 00:07:50,210 --> 00:07:53,490 Speaker 1: a remote corner of the world and spread to the cities. 94 00:07:54,170 --> 00:08:05,570 Speaker 1: With hindsight, it was all a little prescient. At Tufts 95 00:08:05,650 --> 00:08:11,330 Speaker 1: Universities Center for Modeling Infectious Diseases, Nina Fefferman's phone rang 96 00:08:12,210 --> 00:08:15,730 Speaker 1: It was a student of hers Eric Lofgren. Lofgren was 97 00:08:15,770 --> 00:08:18,850 Speaker 1: a keen World of Warcraft player, and he and Fefferman 98 00:08:18,930 --> 00:08:21,970 Speaker 1: had been talking about the game's potential as a research tool. 99 00:08:22,690 --> 00:08:26,490 Speaker 1: They weren't the only academics to be interested. Scientists and 100 00:08:26,650 --> 00:08:30,730 Speaker 1: social scientists were waking up to the possibility that these complex, 101 00:08:30,810 --> 00:08:34,170 Speaker 1: highly social games might be a terrific source of real 102 00:08:34,250 --> 00:08:39,650 Speaker 1: world insight. Economists, for example, we're asking could we study 103 00:08:39,690 --> 00:08:44,210 Speaker 1: inflation by deliberately flooding a virtual world with gold coins? 104 00:08:44,970 --> 00:08:49,290 Speaker 1: What would happen? How would people react? And epidemiologists like 105 00:08:49,530 --> 00:08:52,610 Speaker 1: Lofgren and Fefferman were wondering whether they could learn something 106 00:08:52,650 --> 00:08:56,290 Speaker 1: by persuading a gaming company to unleash a public health 107 00:08:56,330 --> 00:09:01,650 Speaker 1: emergency on a virtual world. Although Lofgren was on the 108 00:09:01,650 --> 00:09:04,050 Speaker 1: other end of the phone line, Fefferman could hear that 109 00:09:04,090 --> 00:09:08,090 Speaker 1: he was excited log into the game, said Lofgren. That 110 00:09:08,210 --> 00:09:14,170 Speaker 1: thing we were talking out it's happening. Corrupted blood was 111 00:09:14,210 --> 00:09:18,850 Speaker 1: spreading fast. Characters strong enough not to be killed instantly 112 00:09:19,130 --> 00:09:24,210 Speaker 1: would flee the plague infested cities, carrying the curse with them. 113 00:09:24,250 --> 00:09:28,290 Speaker 1: The computer bot characters would stroll around as their programming dictated, 114 00:09:28,850 --> 00:09:34,250 Speaker 1: looking innocent but spreading death, and some players, curious to 115 00:09:34,250 --> 00:09:37,570 Speaker 1: see what the fuss was about, sent their characters into 116 00:09:37,610 --> 00:09:40,450 Speaker 1: infected areas to have a look at the pools of 117 00:09:40,490 --> 00:09:45,210 Speaker 1: blood and the piles of virtual skeletons. The result was 118 00:09:45,250 --> 00:09:55,810 Speaker 1: that the curse spread with unimaginable speed. Early in the 119 00:09:55,890 --> 00:10:00,010 Speaker 1: stars CoV two pandemic, before the lockdowns, the number of 120 00:10:00,010 --> 00:10:04,930 Speaker 1: people infected doubled every two or three days. The number 121 00:10:04,930 --> 00:10:12,370 Speaker 1: of characters infected with corrupted blood doubled nine minutes. World 122 00:10:12,410 --> 00:10:15,930 Speaker 1: of Warcraft seems like one big game, but in practice, 123 00:10:16,010 --> 00:10:19,570 Speaker 1: for technical reasons, there are lots of parallel game servers, 124 00:10:19,570 --> 00:10:24,570 Speaker 1: each hosting a few thousand players. Outbreaks happened on different 125 00:10:24,610 --> 00:10:28,770 Speaker 1: game servers at different times. Whenever they did, it would 126 00:10:28,770 --> 00:10:33,250 Speaker 1: take mere hours before every vulnerable character on that server 127 00:10:34,010 --> 00:10:40,770 Speaker 1: was either dead or hiding somewhere very remote. The gaming 128 00:10:40,770 --> 00:10:44,250 Speaker 1: community was a buzz with the news what was going 129 00:10:44,290 --> 00:10:48,170 Speaker 1: on in the first server to be effected, iron Forge, 130 00:10:48,250 --> 00:10:51,410 Speaker 1: the Dwarf and capital was quick to succumb to the plague. 131 00:10:52,290 --> 00:10:57,370 Speaker 1: Surviving characters just saw piles of skeletons marking where countless 132 00:10:57,410 --> 00:11:02,050 Speaker 1: others had perished. The capital of the orcs Ogrimar fared 133 00:11:02,130 --> 00:11:07,210 Speaker 1: no better. Within hours, it was overrun. Players scrambled to 134 00:11:07,250 --> 00:11:11,930 Speaker 1: keep their characters out of harm's way. As the epidemiologists 135 00:11:11,970 --> 00:11:16,330 Speaker 1: Fefferman and Lofgren watched the virtual pandemic unfold, some of 136 00:11:16,370 --> 00:11:20,090 Speaker 1: what they saw surprised them. They were amazed to see 137 00:11:20,170 --> 00:11:25,170 Speaker 1: some characters rushing heroically towards the danger, casting healing spells 138 00:11:25,210 --> 00:11:28,490 Speaker 1: to try to stop the spread, even at the cost 139 00:11:28,530 --> 00:11:32,890 Speaker 1: of their own lives. Altruistic players were risking harm to 140 00:11:32,930 --> 00:11:36,170 Speaker 1: a character they had long cherished because they wanted to 141 00:11:36,210 --> 00:11:39,770 Speaker 1: do the right thing. That wasn't something you saw in 142 00:11:39,810 --> 00:11:46,010 Speaker 1: the epidemiological models. Another surprise was the appearance of what, 143 00:11:46,290 --> 00:11:51,210 Speaker 1: with hindsight, we might call play idiots, players who deliberately 144 00:11:51,250 --> 00:11:55,530 Speaker 1: contracted an infection and spread it around, or who accidentally 145 00:11:55,570 --> 00:11:58,330 Speaker 1: did so, first by recklessly running in to see what 146 00:11:58,370 --> 00:12:00,690 Speaker 1: the fuss was about and then by running away again. 147 00:12:01,490 --> 00:12:05,970 Speaker 1: Corrupted blood, after all, was like COVID fairly harmless to 148 00:12:06,050 --> 00:12:11,250 Speaker 1: some and deadly to others, and some people don't much 149 00:12:11,290 --> 00:12:17,330 Speaker 1: care about others. Misinformation circulated. Everyone seemed to be promoting 150 00:12:17,330 --> 00:12:22,090 Speaker 1: a cure. All the cures were snake oil and conspiracy 151 00:12:22,130 --> 00:12:26,410 Speaker 1: theories circulated too, as the players of the game tried 152 00:12:26,410 --> 00:12:30,130 Speaker 1: to figure out a question that has become all too familiar. 153 00:12:31,090 --> 00:12:36,690 Speaker 1: Did someone do this on purpose? Did the game's designers 154 00:12:36,730 --> 00:12:39,730 Speaker 1: think it would be fun to introduce an utterly deadly, 155 00:12:39,970 --> 00:12:44,370 Speaker 1: mind bendingly transmissible disease into their fantasy world? Was it 156 00:12:44,490 --> 00:12:48,810 Speaker 1: a disgruntled employee trying to sabotage the game? Maybe some 157 00:12:49,010 --> 00:12:53,810 Speaker 1: rogue epidemiologists had whispered into Blizzard's ears, had persuaded them 158 00:12:53,890 --> 00:13:00,330 Speaker 1: to run a grand experiment. Blizzard Entertainment weren't telling they 159 00:13:00,330 --> 00:13:05,730 Speaker 1: had their handsful as their initial puzzlement turned to alarm. 160 00:13:05,770 --> 00:13:09,530 Speaker 1: It was really scary, said the lead engineer, John Cash. 161 00:13:09,890 --> 00:13:16,850 Speaker 1: We didn't know why it was happening. Remember that I 162 00:13:16,930 --> 00:13:23,290 Speaker 1: mentioned that characters had pets, cats, spiderlings, giant snails, that 163 00:13:23,370 --> 00:13:27,050 Speaker 1: sort of thing. Well, those pets proved to be the 164 00:13:27,130 --> 00:13:31,930 Speaker 1: vector for corrupted blood escaping Zulgarub and spreading in the 165 00:13:31,970 --> 00:13:36,810 Speaker 1: cities the programmers had failed to anticipate how that might happen, 166 00:13:37,530 --> 00:13:41,610 Speaker 1: much like real world virologists overlooking some floor in their 167 00:13:41,690 --> 00:13:46,530 Speaker 1: biosecurity measures that allows a virus their studying to accidentally 168 00:13:46,690 --> 00:13:52,490 Speaker 1: escape from the lab. Perish the thought, and now corrupted 169 00:13:52,490 --> 00:13:56,770 Speaker 1: blood was making the game unplayable. You couldn't do very 170 00:13:56,850 --> 00:14:00,010 Speaker 1: much in World of Warcraft if you didn't periodically visit 171 00:14:00,090 --> 00:14:03,730 Speaker 1: the cities, and with the cities piled high with bones 172 00:14:03,770 --> 00:14:09,610 Speaker 1: and blood, that wasn't very appealing. Blizzard entertain and try 173 00:14:09,650 --> 00:14:13,530 Speaker 1: to organize a voluntary quarantine on the affected game servers. 174 00:14:14,410 --> 00:14:17,690 Speaker 1: It did not work. Too many players broke the rules. 175 00:14:18,330 --> 00:14:21,410 Speaker 1: Blizzard didn't really have the option of imposing a lockdown. 176 00:14:21,810 --> 00:14:24,490 Speaker 1: Who would choose to spend their time being a mythical 177 00:14:24,570 --> 00:14:27,610 Speaker 1: hero in a magical realm if they're forced to stay 178 00:14:27,650 --> 00:14:33,450 Speaker 1: at home all day. Blizzard did have one godlike power 179 00:14:33,570 --> 00:14:38,570 Speaker 1: that sadly wasn't open to human leaders in early twenty twenty. 180 00:14:38,650 --> 00:14:43,250 Speaker 1: They could take the entire game offline to reset it. 181 00:14:44,170 --> 00:14:46,850 Speaker 1: They didn't want to do that. It would be disruptive 182 00:14:46,890 --> 00:14:50,770 Speaker 1: and embarrassing, But World of Warcraft was so complex that 183 00:14:50,810 --> 00:14:53,730 Speaker 1: its creators weren't sure if there was another way to 184 00:14:53,810 --> 00:15:02,810 Speaker 1: fix it. Years later, when COVID began to spread in Earnest, 185 00:15:03,170 --> 00:15:06,170 Speaker 1: there was a flurry of newspaper articles asking what the 186 00:15:06,250 --> 00:15:09,610 Speaker 1: corrupted blood pandemic might tell us about the real one. 187 00:15:10,410 --> 00:15:15,610 Speaker 1: A lot, said Wired magazine, World of Warcraft perfectly predicted 188 00:15:15,610 --> 00:15:21,930 Speaker 1: our coronavirus pandemic. Maybe some of the parallels are unsettling. 189 00:15:22,930 --> 00:15:27,010 Speaker 1: But while the epidemiologists Eric Lofgren and Nina Fefferman did 190 00:15:27,050 --> 00:15:31,970 Speaker 1: indeed scrutinize the virtual pandemic for real world insights, they 191 00:15:32,010 --> 00:15:36,010 Speaker 1: concluded that as scientists they hadn't learned as much as 192 00:15:36,050 --> 00:15:39,650 Speaker 1: they'd hoped. Lofgren and Fefferman published an article in the 193 00:15:39,690 --> 00:15:43,530 Speaker 1: medical journal The Lancet arguing that the World of Warcraft 194 00:15:43,570 --> 00:15:49,530 Speaker 1: plague was a tantalizing missed opportunity for epidemiologists. It was 195 00:15:49,690 --> 00:15:53,810 Speaker 1: too different to a real epidemic, and Blizzard Entertainment hadn't 196 00:15:53,810 --> 00:15:59,450 Speaker 1: shared enough data about what happened. Epidemiologists are still eager 197 00:15:59,490 --> 00:16:04,330 Speaker 1: to watch realistic plagues unfold inside computer games, but games 198 00:16:04,370 --> 00:16:11,890 Speaker 1: companies aren't so keen. After a few days, Blizzard decided 199 00:16:11,930 --> 00:16:16,090 Speaker 1: to bite the bullet. It took the game offline, updated 200 00:16:16,090 --> 00:16:24,770 Speaker 1: the software and rebooted the servers. The corrupted blood plague 201 00:16:25,370 --> 00:16:32,130 Speaker 1: was over. Our next cautionary tails short deals not with 202 00:16:32,330 --> 00:16:36,050 Speaker 1: virtual blood shared in a computer generated world, but the 203 00:16:36,090 --> 00:16:39,730 Speaker 1: real kind, shared in the most catastrophic way following a 204 00:16:39,770 --> 00:16:44,290 Speaker 1: series of seemingly mundane errors. More of that after the break. 205 00:16:54,010 --> 00:16:57,490 Speaker 1: A year into the First World War, British soldiers are 206 00:16:57,530 --> 00:17:01,290 Speaker 1: being sent to fight in Gallipoli in what's now northern Turkey. 207 00:17:02,130 --> 00:17:05,290 Speaker 1: Five hundred men from the first Battalion of the seventh 208 00:17:05,370 --> 00:17:09,410 Speaker 1: Royal Scots have boarded a train in Edinburgh, Scotland in 209 00:17:09,450 --> 00:17:13,330 Speaker 1: the middle of the night. It's taking them south to Liverpool, England, 210 00:17:13,570 --> 00:17:16,090 Speaker 1: where a ship is waiting to carry them to the front. 211 00:17:16,810 --> 00:17:19,650 Speaker 1: They haven't been told where they're going. That they have 212 00:17:19,770 --> 00:17:23,650 Speaker 1: been issued with sun helmets, so it's not hard to guess. 213 00:17:25,370 --> 00:17:28,410 Speaker 1: It's an old train. The carriage is made from wood 214 00:17:28,530 --> 00:17:32,570 Speaker 1: and lit by natural gas stored in tanks underneath them. 215 00:17:32,650 --> 00:17:35,690 Speaker 1: It shouldn't really be in service anymore. Modern trains are 216 00:17:35,730 --> 00:17:39,650 Speaker 1: made from steel and lit with electric but this is wartime. 217 00:17:42,650 --> 00:17:45,850 Speaker 1: One of the soldiers is eighteen year old Peter Stoddart. 218 00:17:46,610 --> 00:17:49,490 Speaker 1: We were full of expectation through the night. We chatted 219 00:17:49,530 --> 00:17:53,170 Speaker 1: and played cards. But Peter and his friends aren't going 220 00:17:53,210 --> 00:17:56,650 Speaker 1: to make it to the bloody battlefield of Bilipolly. Many 221 00:17:57,330 --> 00:18:02,290 Speaker 1: won't even get to England. I'm Tim Harford and you're 222 00:18:02,330 --> 00:18:33,810 Speaker 1: listening to cautionary tales. Quentin's Hill is a railway junction 223 00:18:34,210 --> 00:18:36,610 Speaker 1: just on the Scottish side of the border with England. 224 00:18:37,250 --> 00:18:41,130 Speaker 1: There's a signal box and four tracks. The two tracks 225 00:18:41,170 --> 00:18:43,570 Speaker 1: in the middle are the main lines, one going north 226 00:18:43,610 --> 00:18:47,610 Speaker 1: into Scotland, one going south to England. And off to 227 00:18:47,650 --> 00:18:49,850 Speaker 1: the side of each main line there's a loop of 228 00:18:49,930 --> 00:18:53,410 Speaker 1: track where slow trains can be parked and wait while 229 00:18:53,450 --> 00:18:59,650 Speaker 1: faster trains can go by. Inside the signal box are 230 00:18:59,810 --> 00:19:03,850 Speaker 1: rows of great mechanical levers that the signalman throw to operate. 231 00:19:04,130 --> 00:19:06,930 Speaker 1: Both the points that allow trains to switch from one 232 00:19:06,970 --> 00:19:10,410 Speaker 1: track to another and move right, the colored signal arms 233 00:19:10,490 --> 00:19:13,010 Speaker 1: up and down the tracks that tell the train drivers 234 00:19:13,010 --> 00:19:15,730 Speaker 1: to stop and go, a bit like traffic lights on 235 00:19:15,770 --> 00:19:20,610 Speaker 1: a road. Signalman George Meekin had been on the night 236 00:19:20,650 --> 00:19:23,570 Speaker 1: shift at Quintin's Hill. At six in the morning, he 237 00:19:23,650 --> 00:19:27,410 Speaker 1: should have handed over to the day shift signalman James Tinsley. 238 00:19:28,370 --> 00:19:31,610 Speaker 1: Meekin and Tinsley were friends. They'd been doing shifts in 239 00:19:31,610 --> 00:19:34,410 Speaker 1: this signal box for years, and they had something else 240 00:19:34,450 --> 00:19:37,930 Speaker 1: in common. Neither enjoyed getting up early in the morning, 241 00:19:39,930 --> 00:19:43,130 Speaker 1: so they'd agreed between themselves that whoever was on the 242 00:19:43,210 --> 00:19:46,050 Speaker 1: day shift would sleep for a bit longer and come 243 00:19:46,090 --> 00:19:49,930 Speaker 1: in at a round half past six, not six o'clock sharp. 244 00:19:50,930 --> 00:19:54,930 Speaker 1: For Tinsley, this arrangement had an additional benefit. It meant 245 00:19:54,930 --> 00:19:57,850 Speaker 1: he could sometimes come to work on a slow local train. 246 00:19:58,730 --> 00:20:02,450 Speaker 1: Usually that local train went straight past Quintin's Hill without stopping, 247 00:20:02,770 --> 00:20:06,650 Speaker 1: but sometimes the northbound express train from London to Glasgow 248 00:20:06,770 --> 00:20:11,410 Speaker 1: would be running late, and that priority the slow local 249 00:20:11,410 --> 00:20:13,650 Speaker 1: train would put off the main line onto a loop 250 00:20:13,650 --> 00:20:16,290 Speaker 1: at Quintins Hill to let the express train go past. 251 00:20:17,130 --> 00:20:22,010 Speaker 1: That morning, May the twenty second, nineteen fifteen, James Tinsley 252 00:20:22,130 --> 00:20:25,090 Speaker 1: hitched a ride to work on the local train. It 253 00:20:25,290 --> 00:20:29,170 Speaker 1: arrived at Quintins Hill at half past six. George Meekin 254 00:20:29,370 --> 00:20:31,570 Speaker 1: in the signal box had to get it off the 255 00:20:31,610 --> 00:20:34,610 Speaker 1: northbound main line to make way for the delayed express, 256 00:20:35,170 --> 00:20:37,930 Speaker 1: but he couldn't put it on the side loop because 257 00:20:38,050 --> 00:20:41,810 Speaker 1: that was already occupied by a freight train. That happened 258 00:20:41,850 --> 00:20:47,170 Speaker 1: sometimes so Meekin switched the northbound local train onto the 259 00:20:47,210 --> 00:20:52,690 Speaker 1: southbound mainline. He could sit and wait there. Instead, the 260 00:20:52,770 --> 00:20:56,650 Speaker 1: local train ground to a halt. Tinsley hopped off and 261 00:20:56,770 --> 00:20:59,130 Speaker 1: went up to the signal box to start work for 262 00:20:59,170 --> 00:21:03,050 Speaker 1: the day. He brought the daily newspaper and handed it 263 00:21:03,050 --> 00:21:06,490 Speaker 1: to Meekin. Meekin handed Tinsley the notes had made on 264 00:21:06,530 --> 00:21:10,130 Speaker 1: a scrap piece of paper about everything he'd done since 265 00:21:10,170 --> 00:21:14,210 Speaker 1: six o'clock. Tinsley would copy them into the official log 266 00:21:14,250 --> 00:21:17,290 Speaker 1: book in his own handwriting, so it would appear to 267 00:21:17,330 --> 00:21:20,890 Speaker 1: their superiors that the shifts had changed at six o'clock, 268 00:21:21,290 --> 00:21:26,530 Speaker 1: as the rules said they must. Right, mate, here's the situation. 269 00:21:26,930 --> 00:21:30,530 Speaker 1: Meekin says, there's a Goods train on the northbound side loop. 270 00:21:30,810 --> 00:21:33,530 Speaker 1: Who've got to clear the northbound main line for the express, 271 00:21:34,210 --> 00:21:37,650 Speaker 1: So I've parked your local train on the southbound main line. 272 00:21:37,690 --> 00:21:41,290 Speaker 1: As you know, there's an empty coal train going south 273 00:21:41,530 --> 00:21:44,450 Speaker 1: and I'm sending that to wait on the southbound side 274 00:21:44,450 --> 00:21:47,250 Speaker 1: loop and the next train that'll want to come south, 275 00:21:47,250 --> 00:21:51,890 Speaker 1: there's a troop train. Got it? Well? Have you got 276 00:21:51,930 --> 00:21:58,930 Speaker 1: it back on the troop train? The soldiers have started 277 00:21:58,970 --> 00:22:03,650 Speaker 1: to drift off to sleep. The train rumbles south it 278 00:22:03,690 --> 00:22:07,730 Speaker 1: approaches the village of Kirkpatrick, four miles from the border 279 00:22:07,730 --> 00:22:12,450 Speaker 1: with England. The track starts to slope gently downwards and 280 00:22:12,610 --> 00:22:18,690 Speaker 1: the train begins to pick up speed. At Kirkpatrick's station, 281 00:22:18,890 --> 00:22:22,730 Speaker 1: there's another signal box. An empty coal train has just 282 00:22:22,970 --> 00:22:29,610 Speaker 1: passed Kirkpatrick going south at six thirty four am. The 283 00:22:29,770 --> 00:22:33,970 Speaker 1: signalman at Kirkpatrick learns from Quintin's Hill that the empty 284 00:22:34,010 --> 00:22:38,490 Speaker 1: coal train is no longer on the southbound mainline. It's 285 00:22:38,530 --> 00:22:43,450 Speaker 1: been safely moved onto the loop. He assumes that means 286 00:22:43,530 --> 00:22:46,410 Speaker 1: the line is clear for the troop train, but he 287 00:22:46,450 --> 00:22:49,730 Speaker 1: has to check. And this is the time before radios 288 00:22:49,730 --> 00:22:53,490 Speaker 1: and telephones were widespread. Messages are sent by a telegraph 289 00:22:53,530 --> 00:22:57,690 Speaker 1: that rings alarm bells. At six forty three am, he 290 00:22:57,810 --> 00:23:03,050 Speaker 1: asks Quintin's Hill, can I send the troop train through? Yes? 291 00:23:03,210 --> 00:23:07,770 Speaker 1: Comes the reply. The track's clear, but of course it's 292 00:23:07,810 --> 00:23:11,050 Speaker 1: not the local train. The train that brought Tinsley to 293 00:23:11,090 --> 00:23:16,450 Speaker 1: work is still parked on it. The signalman that Kirkpatrick 294 00:23:17,050 --> 00:23:21,850 Speaker 1: doesn't know that he watches the troop train turtle past. 295 00:23:32,850 --> 00:23:37,890 Speaker 1: Researchers who study workplace safety sometimes make a distinction between 296 00:23:38,050 --> 00:23:44,090 Speaker 1: work as imagined and work as done. The idea is 297 00:23:44,130 --> 00:23:47,290 Speaker 1: that what's written down in training manuals and rule books 298 00:23:47,330 --> 00:23:52,290 Speaker 1: and operating procedures might not always correspond to what employees 299 00:23:52,450 --> 00:23:57,090 Speaker 1: actually do in practice. The railway rule book, for example, 300 00:23:57,250 --> 00:24:00,530 Speaker 1: says that the night shift ends at six o'clock, precisely 301 00:24:01,410 --> 00:24:04,730 Speaker 1: as we've seen. That's not what happened at Quentin's Hill. 302 00:24:05,450 --> 00:24:10,090 Speaker 1: Meekin and Tinsley routinely swapped at around half past six instead, 303 00:24:10,890 --> 00:24:14,890 Speaker 1: but they had to hide that from their superiors, So 304 00:24:15,010 --> 00:24:18,450 Speaker 1: at six o'clock, whoever was on the night shift stopped 305 00:24:18,570 --> 00:24:21,570 Speaker 1: writing in the log book and switched to a scrap 306 00:24:21,610 --> 00:24:26,690 Speaker 1: of paper instead. The logbook can't tell us who sent 307 00:24:26,770 --> 00:24:29,730 Speaker 1: that signal at six thirty four to say that the 308 00:24:29,810 --> 00:24:34,850 Speaker 1: empty coal train had left the southbound mainline. Meekin will 309 00:24:34,930 --> 00:24:39,050 Speaker 1: later say he's sure it was Tinsley. Tinsley thinks it 310 00:24:39,170 --> 00:24:42,770 Speaker 1: must have been Meekin. No wonder, neither of them can remember. 311 00:24:43,130 --> 00:24:46,130 Speaker 1: They know that whoever sent that signal should have followed 312 00:24:46,210 --> 00:24:50,210 Speaker 1: up with another signal to tell Kirkpatrick that the southbound 313 00:24:50,250 --> 00:24:55,170 Speaker 1: mainline was nonetheless still blocked now by the local train, 314 00:24:55,890 --> 00:25:04,330 Speaker 1: But nobody does. The leavers in the signal box correspond 315 00:25:04,370 --> 00:25:08,290 Speaker 1: to the tracks, the main lines and side loops. The 316 00:25:08,410 --> 00:25:11,650 Speaker 1: rules say that when a track is blocked, the signalman 317 00:25:11,690 --> 00:25:14,050 Speaker 1: puts a ring or collar on the lever as a 318 00:25:14,130 --> 00:25:20,050 Speaker 1: visual reminder. Some even say train here in big letters. 319 00:25:21,330 --> 00:25:26,370 Speaker 1: That's work is imagined by the rule writers. In practice, 320 00:25:26,650 --> 00:25:31,330 Speaker 1: Meekin and Tinsley didn't bother with it. That's work has done. 321 00:25:32,370 --> 00:25:35,050 Speaker 1: Whenever a train stops for more than a few minutes, 322 00:25:35,410 --> 00:25:38,250 Speaker 1: The rules say someone from the train has to visit 323 00:25:38,290 --> 00:25:41,970 Speaker 1: the signal box to remind the signalman they're there, check 324 00:25:42,010 --> 00:25:44,810 Speaker 1: there's a collar on the lever, and sign the log 325 00:25:44,850 --> 00:25:48,010 Speaker 1: book to say they've done this. The fireman from the 326 00:25:48,050 --> 00:25:51,930 Speaker 1: local train signed the log book, but he didn't check 327 00:25:51,970 --> 00:25:55,130 Speaker 1: for a collar. Who uses those? And he didn't feel 328 00:25:55,130 --> 00:25:57,730 Speaker 1: the need to remind Tinsley that the train was there. 329 00:25:58,650 --> 00:26:03,810 Speaker 1: After all, Tinsley had only just got off it. If 330 00:26:03,850 --> 00:26:07,290 Speaker 1: you imagine that work always happens exactly as the rule 331 00:26:07,330 --> 00:26:11,410 Speaker 1: book dictates, it's to see how any signalman could forget 332 00:26:11,450 --> 00:26:14,570 Speaker 1: about a train on the line. When you look at 333 00:26:14,610 --> 00:26:19,730 Speaker 1: how work was actually done, it becomes less inexplicable. Here 334 00:26:19,770 --> 00:26:23,410 Speaker 1: is another example. According to the rules, the staff from 335 00:26:23,410 --> 00:26:26,130 Speaker 1: the trains shouldn't stay in the signal box for a 336 00:26:26,210 --> 00:26:30,490 Speaker 1: moment longer than necessary to exchange critical information, so as 337 00:26:30,570 --> 00:26:34,650 Speaker 1: not to risk distracting the signalman from his duties. In practice, 338 00:26:34,730 --> 00:26:39,130 Speaker 1: they might naturally hang around for a chat. When Tinsley 339 00:26:39,170 --> 00:26:42,170 Speaker 1: gets to the signal box, the brakesman from the goods 340 00:26:42,210 --> 00:26:46,010 Speaker 1: train is there. The rules say Meekin should leave as 341 00:26:46,050 --> 00:26:49,170 Speaker 1: soon as he comes off duty, but he doesn't. He 342 00:26:49,250 --> 00:26:52,450 Speaker 1: settles down to read the newspaper. The fireman from the 343 00:26:52,490 --> 00:26:55,450 Speaker 1: local train turns up, so does the brakesman from the 344 00:26:55,530 --> 00:26:59,330 Speaker 1: empty coal train. Meekin passes on the latest news about 345 00:26:59,330 --> 00:27:05,170 Speaker 1: the war. When workers done departs from workers imagined, like this, 346 00:27:06,090 --> 00:27:12,570 Speaker 1: whose fault is it? The traditional approach is to blame 347 00:27:12,850 --> 00:27:18,050 Speaker 1: work as done, but rules can sometimes be cumbersome or unrealistic. 348 00:27:19,450 --> 00:27:22,610 Speaker 1: Eric Holnagl is an academic who studies safety in the 349 00:27:22,650 --> 00:27:26,690 Speaker 1: healthcare sector. He argues that we should always be keen 350 00:27:26,810 --> 00:27:30,650 Speaker 1: to close the gap between work as done and work 351 00:27:30,890 --> 00:27:34,290 Speaker 1: as imagined, but we should keep an open mind about 352 00:27:34,330 --> 00:27:38,050 Speaker 1: whether it's the rules or the behavior that needs to adapt. 353 00:27:38,970 --> 00:27:42,410 Speaker 1: He gives the example of a hospital, whether written procedures 354 00:27:42,490 --> 00:27:46,250 Speaker 1: say nurses should take blood samples from patients only when 355 00:27:46,290 --> 00:27:50,730 Speaker 1: a doctor requests them, but nurses routinely take samples from 356 00:27:50,850 --> 00:27:54,450 Speaker 1: very ill patients before the doctor has arrived. It saves 357 00:27:54,490 --> 00:27:59,370 Speaker 1: precious time. Should the nurses be reprimanded or should the 358 00:27:59,450 --> 00:28:09,490 Speaker 1: rule book be amended to close the gap between workersagened 359 00:28:09,690 --> 00:28:15,090 Speaker 1: and workers done? Managers need to understand what workers actually do, 360 00:28:16,170 --> 00:28:19,970 Speaker 1: and workers need to feel free to be honest. If 361 00:28:19,970 --> 00:28:23,250 Speaker 1: the railway managers knew that the signalman didn't always use 362 00:28:23,330 --> 00:28:25,690 Speaker 1: the lever collars, they might have come up with a 363 00:28:25,730 --> 00:28:29,770 Speaker 1: better system. If Meekin and Tinsley had felt free to ask, 364 00:28:30,410 --> 00:28:33,570 Speaker 1: can we change shifts at six thirty, they wouldn't have 365 00:28:33,610 --> 00:28:38,610 Speaker 1: needed their subterfuge With the log book. Tinsley sets about 366 00:28:38,690 --> 00:28:42,450 Speaker 1: copying the entries from Meekin's scrap of paper into the 367 00:28:42,450 --> 00:28:45,890 Speaker 1: log book. Meekin and the train workers are chatting about 368 00:28:45,930 --> 00:28:50,290 Speaker 1: the war news. Tinsley hears the signal from Kirkpatrick, is 369 00:28:50,330 --> 00:28:53,930 Speaker 1: the southbound main line clear? The lever isn't in the 370 00:28:54,010 --> 00:28:57,090 Speaker 1: position that would remind him the line is blocked, and 371 00:28:57,210 --> 00:29:03,370 Speaker 1: he responds without thinking, yes, the line is clear. The 372 00:29:03,530 --> 00:29:15,370 Speaker 1: train he arrived on has slipped his mind entirely on 373 00:29:15,410 --> 00:29:19,530 Speaker 1: the Troop train. Eighteen year old Peter Stoddart is jolted 374 00:29:19,530 --> 00:29:24,130 Speaker 1: away as he's thrown across the carriage. Earth is going on. 375 00:29:36,850 --> 00:29:41,130 Speaker 1: Watching from the signal box are horrified. James Tinsley and 376 00:29:41,210 --> 00:29:46,250 Speaker 1: George Meekin see exactly what's happened. The troop train has 377 00:29:46,370 --> 00:29:49,610 Speaker 1: plowed into the local train on the southbound main line. 378 00:29:50,050 --> 00:29:52,450 Speaker 1: It was going much too fast to stop in time. 379 00:29:53,810 --> 00:29:57,130 Speaker 1: The old wooden carriages of the troop train are now 380 00:29:57,210 --> 00:30:04,450 Speaker 1: scattered zigzag across both tracks. Tinsley and Meekin know what's 381 00:30:04,450 --> 00:30:08,890 Speaker 1: about to happen too. The late running London to Glasgow 382 00:30:09,130 --> 00:30:13,890 Speaker 1: Express is powering up the northbound mainline straight at the debris. 383 00:30:14,850 --> 00:30:20,530 Speaker 1: It won't be able to stop in time either. In 384 00:30:20,570 --> 00:30:23,930 Speaker 1: the troop train, Peter Stoddart tries to get up, then 385 00:30:23,970 --> 00:30:27,690 Speaker 1: tries again, but something is pinning down his left leg. 386 00:30:28,370 --> 00:30:31,170 Speaker 1: He hears the steam whistle of the Express and the 387 00:30:31,290 --> 00:30:47,610 Speaker 1: desperate screeching of graves, then everything goes dark. When Stoddart 388 00:30:47,730 --> 00:30:52,090 Speaker 1: comes to again, he finds himself halfway down an embankment 389 00:30:52,970 --> 00:30:55,570 Speaker 1: that looks up and there was a little lark singing 390 00:30:55,570 --> 00:30:59,610 Speaker 1: its damned head off. He remembers, I saw my mate 391 00:30:59,610 --> 00:31:03,010 Speaker 1: a few yards away. He was laughing like hell at me. 392 00:31:04,490 --> 00:31:07,370 Speaker 1: I put my arms out to him and it was 393 00:31:07,370 --> 00:31:11,010 Speaker 1: only his head, his head with his mouth and eyes opened. 394 00:31:12,530 --> 00:31:15,050 Speaker 1: I broke down and started to cry. I don't know 395 00:31:15,090 --> 00:31:20,930 Speaker 1: for how long. Stoddart gets to his feet and scrambles 396 00:31:21,010 --> 00:31:26,570 Speaker 1: up the embankment. It's carnage. There are body parts everywhere. 397 00:31:27,410 --> 00:31:30,530 Speaker 1: Some soldiers had wriggled free of the troop train into 398 00:31:30,570 --> 00:31:34,490 Speaker 1: the path of the onrushing express. Many more are trapped 399 00:31:34,970 --> 00:31:37,770 Speaker 1: and they can't be rescued because the wooden carriages are 400 00:31:37,850 --> 00:31:42,810 Speaker 1: burning fiercely. The crash has punctured the gas cylinders from 401 00:31:42,810 --> 00:31:45,610 Speaker 1: the hot coals from the steam engine have set the 402 00:31:45,650 --> 00:31:52,250 Speaker 1: gas alight. Three railway staff died at Quintin's Hill and 403 00:31:52,570 --> 00:31:56,570 Speaker 1: nine passengers from the local train and the express, but 404 00:31:56,930 --> 00:32:00,330 Speaker 1: it was on the troop train that the heaviest toll fell. 405 00:32:01,410 --> 00:32:06,770 Speaker 1: The Royal Scots lost two hundred and fourteen soldiers. Only 406 00:32:06,850 --> 00:32:16,250 Speaker 1: eighty three of the bodies could ever be identified. The 407 00:32:16,330 --> 00:32:20,770 Speaker 1: Scottish court took the traditional approach. They blamed the workers, 408 00:32:21,330 --> 00:32:25,690 Speaker 1: not the rules. They found that work has done was 409 00:32:26,090 --> 00:32:32,010 Speaker 1: entirely at fault Meekin and Tinsley were found guilty of 410 00:32:32,170 --> 00:32:38,650 Speaker 1: culpable homicide. Both spent a year in prison, but when 411 00:32:38,690 --> 00:32:42,730 Speaker 1: they got out, the railway company gave them jobs again. 412 00:32:44,890 --> 00:32:49,210 Speaker 1: Perhaps the bosses knew deep down that their own rules 413 00:32:49,330 --> 00:32:53,490 Speaker 1: had also been to blame. It's always easy to find 414 00:32:53,570 --> 00:32:59,290 Speaker 1: fault with workers done, but workers imagined had played its 415 00:32:59,330 --> 00:33:11,770 Speaker 1: part too. For a list of our sources, see the 416 00:33:11,770 --> 00:33:18,970 Speaker 1: show notes at Tim Harford dot com. Cautionary Tales is 417 00:33:19,010 --> 00:33:23,090 Speaker 1: written by me Tim Harford with Andrew Wright. It's produced 418 00:33:23,090 --> 00:33:27,090 Speaker 1: by Ryan Dilley, with support from Courtney Guarino and Emily Vaughan. 419 00:33:27,570 --> 00:33:30,730 Speaker 1: The sound design and original music is the work of 420 00:33:30,810 --> 00:33:35,490 Speaker 1: Pascal Wise. Julia Barton edited the scripts. It features the 421 00:33:35,570 --> 00:33:40,570 Speaker 1: voice talents of Ben Crowe, Melanie Guttridge, Stella Harford, and 422 00:33:40,730 --> 00:33:44,610 Speaker 1: Rufus Wright. The show also wouldn't have been possible without 423 00:33:44,610 --> 00:33:49,450 Speaker 1: the work of Mia LaBelle, Jacob Weisberg, Heather Fane, John Schnarz, 424 00:33:49,970 --> 00:33:55,770 Speaker 1: Carlie Migliori, Eric Sandler, Royston Basserve, Maggie Taylor, Nicole Mrano, 425 00:33:56,090 --> 00:34:00,010 Speaker 1: and Yellow Lakhan and Maya Kanig. Cautionary Tales is a 426 00:34:00,050 --> 00:34:03,970 Speaker 1: production of Pushkin Industries. If you like the show, please 427 00:34:03,970 --> 00:34:07,330 Speaker 1: remember to share, rate and review. And if you want 428 00:34:07,370 --> 00:34:11,010 Speaker 1: to hear the show ad free and into exclusive Cautionary 429 00:34:11,050 --> 00:34:14,290 Speaker 1: Tale shorts, then sign up for Pushkin Plus on the 430 00:34:14,330 --> 00:34:18,730 Speaker 1: show page in Apple Podcasts or at pushkin dot fm, 431 00:34:18,730 --> 00:34:25,250 Speaker 1: slash plush