1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:12,320 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Brian Curtis 3 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 2: along with Doug Krisner. Join us each day for the 4 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:22,240 Speaker 2: stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. 5 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: You can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 2: podcasts and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and 7 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app. 8 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 3: Well. 9 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 2: China has asked South Korea to maintain stable supply chains 10 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 2: and to be a trustworthy partner. We get more on 11 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 2: the story from Bloomberg's minmn Loo in Hong Kong. 12 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:44,640 Speaker 4: Chinese Premier League Tang told South Kurrent President Yunsogil China 13 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 4: wants them two nations to be trustworthy neighbors. He said 14 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 4: each country should help the other to thrive. These comments 15 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 4: came as the countries began their first three way summit 16 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 4: with Japan since twenty nineteen. Lee said both sides should 17 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 4: avoid turning economic issues into political issues. The Chinese premier 18 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:06,399 Speaker 4: also said Beijing welcome South Korean firms, including some Song 19 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 4: to expand in China. Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul are said 20 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 4: to be looking at several areas of cooperation including the 21 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 4: economy and trade in Hong Kong. I'm Min Min Loo 22 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 4: Bloomberg Radio. 23 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 2: Joining us now on the program is Richard McGregor, a 24 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 2: senior fellow for East Asia at the Loewi Institute, to 25 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 2: take a closer look at this story and perhaps talk 26 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 2: a little bit about that US delegation in Taiwan, and 27 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:31,919 Speaker 2: also Jensen Huang. Richard, thank you so much for joining 28 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:34,680 Speaker 2: us here on the program. So the news is tightening 29 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 2: a little bit on China. We had the G seven 30 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 2: finance chiefs criticizing Chinese trading practices, and also at the 31 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 2: end of last week the US moving to reimpose tariffs 32 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 2: on hundreds of Chinese goods, and now this trilateral summit. 33 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 2: What are the deliverables here for each of the countries? 34 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 2: Just if we could sum up briefly. 35 00:01:57,320 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 5: Well, I think the first of all, the medium is 36 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 5: the message in a way, member, as your reporter said, 37 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:03,559 Speaker 5: this is the first time in four or five years, 38 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 5: and one of the fascinating things about it, of course, 39 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 5: is that the problem hasn't been China Japan, which is 40 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 5: usually the problem, but it's China, South Korea. They've had 41 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 5: a particular rocky patch and so the fact that they're 42 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 5: all able to meet now, I think tells you that 43 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 5: China wants to re engage with those countries. It's close neighbors, 44 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 5: both politically, but most importantly economically and technologically. 45 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 2: Is this a kinder and gentler Chinese regime at the moment, I. 46 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,239 Speaker 5: Don't think there are very many, you know, I don't 47 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 5: think either the US nor China is kinder and gentler 48 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 5: at the moment. I think both countries are looking for leverage. 49 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 5: They're not looking for an off ramp for their competition. 50 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 5: And Japan and South Korea are vital, they're both US security, 51 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 5: longtime US security allies, and they both become very wary 52 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 5: of China politically and economically. Remember South Korea, we're underwent 53 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 5: pretty severe economic sanctions from China from twenty sixteen over 54 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 5: the installation of that anti missile shield in South Korea, 55 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:17,560 Speaker 5: and so that really hurt relations. And then of course 56 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 5: the President Yuan made some comments about Taiwan which truly 57 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 5: angered China, and so China has I think it has 58 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 5: found its influence and its economic role in both South 59 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 5: Korea and Japan two degree diminished. And also, of course 60 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 5: the US wants South Korea and Japan to cooperate in 61 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 5: its own sanctions against China on semiconductors. 62 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 6: And the like. 63 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, so we see the US definitely exerting pressure on 64 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 2: the G seven, and you know that's been tough in 65 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 2: the EUS, tough in policy to a certain degree on China. 66 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 2: I'm curious how much pressure you think the US is 67 00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 2: applying to its close partners in Japan in South Korea 68 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 2: to do more of the same against China. 69 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 5: Well, I think an exceptional amount of pressure. But in 70 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 5: some cases, a country like Japan is applying its own pressure. 71 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 5: You know. So Japan, for example, you know, which you know, 72 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 5: pioneer successful industry policy back in the seventies and eight 73 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 5: nineteen seventies and eighties. It really wants Europe to come 74 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 5: on board with the US in trying to constrain China 75 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,480 Speaker 5: in some respects. So, yes, US is putting pressure on, 76 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:37,040 Speaker 5: but in some respects are Japan and to a lesser extent, 77 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:39,920 Speaker 5: but to some extent South Korea they're willing to work 78 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:42,719 Speaker 5: with the US. I just think it depends on how 79 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:45,279 Speaker 5: far it goes in the ext and the detail. 80 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:49,600 Speaker 2: Really, let's talk a little bit about the delegation of 81 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 2: US lawmakers that are in Taiwan now, and also Jensen 82 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 2: Wong of Nvidia. These trips are planned out, you know, 83 00:04:57,520 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 2: fairly far in advance. 84 00:04:58,760 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 3: I would imagine. 85 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 2: Is there much significance in Jensen Huang going to Taiwan 86 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 2: at this time? 87 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:09,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean you'll struggle to get a really detailed 88 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:13,119 Speaker 5: answer from me about the detail of mister Wang's trip 89 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 5: about exactly what he'll be doing. But I just think 90 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 5: it's a reminder that Taiwan is the global center of 91 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:25,159 Speaker 5: advanced semiconductor manufacturing. Even with building a couple of plants 92 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 5: in Kyushu and Japan, constructing one in Arizona and Germany, 93 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 5: the importance of Taiwan is not diminished. And yes, Taiwan 94 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:38,120 Speaker 5: has been willing to put TARSMC factories elsewhere, but TSMC 95 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:42,040 Speaker 5: has made sure to keep its most advanced chips manufacturing 96 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 5: in Taiwan itself. So I mean, in that respect, all 97 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 5: leeds road to lead to Taiwan, and it's no surprise 98 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 5: mister Wong would be going there. 99 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 3: Yeah. 100 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 2: What did you make of the Bloomberg story last week? 101 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 2: And it was later confirmed to a certain degree by 102 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 2: ministers in Taiwan about the ability for TSMC and ASML 103 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:07,120 Speaker 2: to you know, have a kill switch on the advanced 104 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 2: semiconductor manufacturing equipment in Taiwan. 105 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 3: Gosh a kill switch. 106 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 5: Well, one wonders if they're you know, heaven forbid, it 107 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:21,280 Speaker 5: won't happen that there were a conflict, military conflict involving 108 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 5: Taiwan and in Taiwan, what would happen to TSMC facilities. 109 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 5: You know, you hear some wild stories is that they 110 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 5: would be bombed by anti China forces to prevent China 111 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 5: set of benefiting from them. Then there's the issue whether 112 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:38,280 Speaker 5: you need to do that at all, because of all 113 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:42,359 Speaker 5: the value of TSMC is basically inside the engineer's heads, 114 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 5: and that's the value, not just the sort of hard 115 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 5: ware that they've built, is the updating of it. But yeah, 116 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 5: I think I don't think China. China's interest in Taiwan 117 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 5: is about its semiconductors. But if they were to take 118 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 5: over the EYE, and then that is obviously a tremendous 119 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:04,040 Speaker 5: price they would seek to leverage. 120 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:07,920 Speaker 2: Sometimes when we mention to people who only look at 121 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 2: this issue from AFAR, they're surprised to hear that for China, 122 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 2: Taiwan is issue number one. It's a bigger issue, even 123 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 2: in some ways than global trade, because it it goes 124 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 2: to the reuniting of China. And you spent a lot 125 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 2: of time, Richard, in Beijing, and you've covered China for gosh, 126 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 2: since we met back in the eighties, so it's been 127 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 2: a long time. Is Taiwan any less important now or 128 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 2: is it more important now than it used to be? 129 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 5: No, it's more important than Brian. You're aging us both, 130 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 5: but we actually met and worked together in Taiwan in 131 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 5: the late nineteen eighties, and I think it's more important. 132 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 5: And it's more important in this respect is because once 133 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 5: China covered at Taiwan, but they did not have the 134 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 5: military or political capability to move on the issue. That's 135 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 5: all change now and you look at the you know, 136 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 5: the blockade that China imposed on the island after mister 137 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 5: Laichinder's inauguration, and they did that rapidly. China resort would 138 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 5: always wanted to have done that, but they didn't have 139 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 5: the capability to do it. Now they do. They have 140 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 5: the military capability. They're military dominant, militarily dominant in that 141 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 5: era area. And I think yes, so it's more important 142 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 5: because now they can act on what they've always wanted 143 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 5: to act on. 144 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 2: We had Einer Tonguan from the Taihu Institute on the 145 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 2: program late last week, and he tends to lean pro 146 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:40,560 Speaker 2: China in some ways, but he was saying that a 147 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 2: blockade for China wouldn't make any sense because it would 148 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:47,440 Speaker 2: also disrupt its own trade to such a degree that 149 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 2: it would be too punitive. 150 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 5: Well, that's right, that's why many of the options that 151 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 5: China has, none of them are easy. And of course 152 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:58,560 Speaker 5: you can do a blockade. You know, we might wake 153 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 5: up one morning and China is to clear Taiwan part 154 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 5: of its custom zone. But you know, the US could 155 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 5: do a counter block day against China against its energy assets, 156 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 5: for example, and other raw materials going through the Malacca 157 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 5: Straits and elsewhere, so that would hurt everybody as well. 158 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 5: But you know, it's not only China has options. Others 159 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,680 Speaker 5: have options. I think China's problem is that it's been 160 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 5: so bad at winning any support on the ground amongst 161 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 5: the Taiwanese people that they've only left themselves bad options. 162 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 5: I mean, all she needs to do is to get 163 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 5: Taiwan to agreed to negotiate, but public opinion and political 164 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 5: parties in China won't do that until China gives them 165 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:44,720 Speaker 5: some incentive too, rather than simply threatening them. 166 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 2: All right, Richard, unfortunately out of time, but always a pleasure. 167 00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 3: Good to talk with you again. 168 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:54,599 Speaker 2: Richard McGregor is Senior Fellow for East Asia at the 169 00:09:54,640 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 2: Lowi Institute. Well, it was about ten years ago that 170 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 2: President Shijen Fin gave a very important speech, a pivotal speech. 171 00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 2: It would set China on course to dominate the electric 172 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 2: vehicle industry around the world. And joining us now is 173 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 2: Linda Liu Bloomberg China Cars Reporter to talk about the 174 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 2: extent to which Linda China has achieved that dream. 175 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:27,600 Speaker 3: Are they there on the precipice. 176 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 6: Yeah, you'll be on the money, because ten years ago 177 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:36,800 Speaker 6: on the auto industry and China looked very different to 178 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 6: what it is today. At the time, China sold fewer 179 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 6: than eighty thousand eeds and hybrids, exported about five hundred 180 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 6: thousand cars, and that the mestic market was dominated by 181 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 6: international manufacturers like Volkswagen and the messic brands are perceived 182 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 6: as being inferior. And so fast forward to ten years 183 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:03,080 Speaker 6: we've seen come to be the world's largest market for 184 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:07,720 Speaker 6: autos and EV's they've overtook Japan as the world's largest exporter, 185 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:09,680 Speaker 6: so they've come a really long way. 186 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting that the challenges at home are not 187 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:19,080 Speaker 2: so great for continued EV dominance in China, but challenges 188 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 2: abroad are getting a lot tougher. Now, how much tougher 189 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 2: is it going to be for China to build on 190 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 2: some of those gains outside the country or will it 191 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 2: mainly only be difficult in the US and Europe. 192 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 6: Yeah, it's really interesting because now that China has built 193 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 6: up its domestic autos and EV supply chain, it's looking 194 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 6: to expand over broad abroad. But in the process of that, 195 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:47,400 Speaker 6: it's actually going to kind of step on the toes 196 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 6: of some entrenched auto industries in other countries because essentially, 197 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 6: with the rise of evs, it's going to disrupt traditional 198 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:59,080 Speaker 6: auto supply chains that employ millions of people. So you've 199 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:03,200 Speaker 6: seen the US, you know, already called droping the import 200 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:07,600 Speaker 6: tariffs on ebs, and the EU is about to announce 201 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 6: results from an anti subsidy investigation also into Chinese ebs. 202 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 6: We've also seen action from Brazil where they remove a 203 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 6: tax break for EV imports. So these countries are really 204 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 6: putting up trade barriers, and that's going to be a 205 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 6: challenge for Chinese carmakers who are looking to expand internationally. 206 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 2: So China looks to be hitting back, with the China 207 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 2: Chamber of Commerce talking about raising import tariffs on cars 208 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:37,199 Speaker 2: with large engines. How much would that hurt some of 209 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 2: the European automakers and to a lesser degree perhaps American 210 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:43,199 Speaker 2: car makers selling there. 211 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 6: Yeah, for the potential hike of this import tariff on 212 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:53,840 Speaker 6: large engine kaza, China has hinted that and they do 213 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:59,559 Speaker 6: well mostly hit European brands like Mercedes and BMW because 214 00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 6: they're the top importers into China right now. And interestingly, 215 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 6: the largest importer of autoism too China last year was 216 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 6: actually Toyota. So we're gonna have to see how this tariff, 217 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 6: if it is raceed, will play out. Because Japan they 218 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:21,840 Speaker 6: have become collateral damage. American car makers actually don't import 219 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 6: that many cars into China any more, so this action, 220 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 6: if it goes ahead, will probably mostly impact European automakers. 221 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 2: I think a lot of listeners would be curious where 222 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 2: China's strongest markets are outside of Europe. Let's say, for instance, 223 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 2: in South America or on the African continent. Where is 224 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:47,079 Speaker 2: China having the most success in moving its cars abroad. 225 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 6: China is actually growing its exports in different parts of 226 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 6: the world. Like you said, South America is seeing a 227 00:13:55,480 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 6: really big increase looking at countries like Brazil, Mexico, China 228 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 6: is doing a lot of exporting their emerging markets is 229 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:07,440 Speaker 6: where China performs the best because they tend to be 230 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:11,439 Speaker 6: countries that have more friendly relations with China. So we're 231 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:17,200 Speaker 6: also seeing healthy growth of Chinese supply chains expanding as 232 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 6: well as exporting into Southeast Asia, Africa, like you said, 233 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 6: essentially places where there aren't as many antagonism and trade 234 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 6: barriers against China. 235 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:32,480 Speaker 2: One of the other interesting areas for a Chinese ev 236 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 2: makers is at the luxury end. We know that BYD 237 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 2: is now producing more luxury models, Zeker is another one, 238 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 2: Neo is another one. Is that an area for growth 239 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 2: for the Chinese car makers, let's say over the next decade. 240 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 6: Yeah, the Chinese carmakers definitely want to raise the average 241 00:14:55,880 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 6: spelling price of their vehicles, and going upmarket luxury is 242 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 6: a sure fire way to do that. One of the 243 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:06,880 Speaker 6: challenges is really around brand building, which is something that 244 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 6: not just automakers, but Chinese companies is really having I guess, 245 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 6: to learn how to do and trying to cultivate their 246 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 6: own brand. Looking at markets like Europe, customers there actually 247 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 6: have very strong brand loyalty. You know, some families may 248 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:30,040 Speaker 6: be driving Volks Fagins for generations. So for Chinese automakers 249 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 6: are going up markets trying to build their brand, they 250 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 6: really have to take the time and investment into doing that. 251 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 2: All right, Linda, thanks so much for joining us. Always 252 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 2: interesting to catch up on the latest developments with Chinese automakers. 253 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 2: Linda lu has been with this Bloomberg China Cars reporter. 254 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:55,840 Speaker 5: Well. 255 00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 2: Joining us now in our studios right here in Hong 256 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 2: Kong for discussion markets is David job, who is Global 257 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 2: Market Strategies for the Asia Pacific at Invesco. David, thanks 258 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 2: very much. So we've run through some of the top 259 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:10,480 Speaker 2: stories there. It's an interesting environment, kind of bullish, I guess, 260 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 2: coming off of some of the trading last week, particularly 261 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 2: tied to AI and Nvidia. What is chief of mind 262 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 2: for you as we start this week. 263 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 1: Well, I think that there are a few things going on. 264 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 7: I think that there continues to be questions as to 265 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 7: if this AI trend has more legs run I think so. 266 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 7: I think that the earnings guidance given by Nvidia and 267 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 7: also other related AI manufacturers and AI apps, it shows 268 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 7: that companies are spending money on capital expenditures on their 269 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:45,280 Speaker 7: AI development. And I think that you know, whether this 270 00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 7: has the same effect on the economy as said the 271 00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 7: Internet did you know twenty thirty years ago, is yet 272 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 7: to be seen. It's probably not going to be as significant. 273 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 7: But I think that the AI development is a very 274 00:16:56,880 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 7: very important technological breaks that that should be a very 275 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 7: strong investment growth trend over the coming years. 276 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 2: So let's talk about how the tentacles of this trend 277 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:11,760 Speaker 2: extend out into the marketplace. So if you're a believer 278 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:15,160 Speaker 2: in AI, and you need only look at Nvidia's earnings 279 00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 2: to show that there are a lot of people who 280 00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:20,840 Speaker 2: are believers, and that's not so much on bidding up 281 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:24,199 Speaker 2: the stock side, but in the actual business side. So 282 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:26,439 Speaker 2: if you think about those tentacles and how they spread, 283 00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:27,119 Speaker 2: where do they go? 284 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 7: Well, I think that there's both downstream opportunities for investments 285 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,440 Speaker 7: such as you know, you know, AI requires a lot 286 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:38,200 Speaker 7: of energy, so it requires also a lot of precious metals, 287 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 7: industrial metals that go into manufacturing a lot of the 288 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:43,879 Speaker 7: semiconductor chips. Then you can go upstream in terms of 289 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 7: investing in some of the applications that the AI technology 290 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:50,720 Speaker 7: runs on. So I think that there's a significant number 291 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:55,080 Speaker 7: of opportunities. We look at other places that have perhaps 292 00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 7: more interesting pockets of opportunity. In places like Korea and Taiwan, 293 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:02,199 Speaker 7: the stocks there and the indexes there are more weighted 294 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 7: towards AI related technology. So I think that for those 295 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,040 Speaker 7: that have felt that they may have missed out on 296 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 7: the single stock run in in the US or other places, 297 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 7: I think that investing in the the COSTP or the 298 00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 7: Taiwan index could could be an interesting opportunity. 299 00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:22,720 Speaker 2: We had an interesting line out of the Stock Exchange 300 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:26,720 Speaker 2: Operator in South Korea urging directors of listed companies to 301 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:30,200 Speaker 2: play a more active role in enhancing shareholder returns. When 302 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:33,679 Speaker 2: you talk to people about Japan and about South Korea, 303 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:38,159 Speaker 2: they sometimes talk about corporate governance improving. Uh is that 304 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:41,639 Speaker 2: part of your of your approach to those markets as 305 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:42,360 Speaker 2: well well? 306 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 7: I think that corporate governance are improving is somewhat of 307 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 7: a subjective and relative term. But what's what's interesting there 308 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 7: is that companies are being encouraged very meaningfully to increase 309 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:04,120 Speaker 7: shareholder you knows, and to increase shareholder maximize shareholder value there. 310 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 7: We haven't seen this development for a very long time, 311 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:10,800 Speaker 7: and it's it's it's having a pretty significant impact I 312 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 7: think overall on Japanese stocks, both in terms of seeing 313 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 7: the valuation starting to really ramp up little known as. 314 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 1: A Korea UH and and what's going on there. 315 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 7: And I think that similar efforts to maximized shareholder valued 316 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:26,720 Speaker 7: is also starting to develop. 317 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 1: So I think that these. 318 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:32,920 Speaker 7: Places you know are are are barreling down the right road. 319 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:36,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, some of these areas would include better treatment of 320 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 2: minority shareholders, that's one thing. Also buybacks, which you mentioned, 321 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:46,000 Speaker 2: and maybe raising dividends. So among those three things, you know, 322 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 2: is anything that stands out? And is there anything else 323 00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 2: in this general area that companies are doing that you 324 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:53,399 Speaker 2: know are appealing to investors? 325 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 7: Well, I think that these places in the past we 326 00:19:57,040 --> 00:20:01,399 Speaker 7: haven't seen activist shareholders. I think maybe from a cultural standpoint, 327 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 7: and in North Asia it's uh, you know, investors have 328 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:09,159 Speaker 7: tended to be very passive when it comes to directing UH. 329 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 7: Corporate governance initiatives. But I think that's starting to change, 330 00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 7: and I think the change is good and and I 331 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 7: think that we can continue to expect further you know developments. 332 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:22,640 Speaker 4: Uh. 333 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a very good point. 334 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,920 Speaker 2: It's something I left out was, uh, the embracing of 335 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:30,480 Speaker 2: activist investors who who really take a look at management 336 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 2: and try to get better management, better decisions out of 337 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:35,120 Speaker 2: the board and. 338 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:37,160 Speaker 3: The management on policy. 339 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 2: So I think that's it's a good point to make 340 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 2: now in terms of of the big macro set up, 341 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,160 Speaker 2: we know that the FED looks positioned now for higher 342 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,879 Speaker 2: interest rates for longer. Do you expect that to change 343 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 2: anytime soon? 344 00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,920 Speaker 7: Well, I think that that continues to be the million 345 00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 7: dollar question. I think even among the FED, we continue 346 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:59,920 Speaker 7: to see somewhat conflicting signals. I think it's it's very 347 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 7: clear that you know, Charity J. Powell, perhaps it's a 348 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 7: little more dubbish when it comes to instituting the first 349 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 7: rate cut compared to other members of the f MC, 350 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:14,080 Speaker 7: which was you know, very exemplified in the recent FMC minute. 351 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:15,960 Speaker 7: So I think it's some it continues to be up 352 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:16,439 Speaker 7: for debate. 353 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:17,400 Speaker 3: Yeah. 354 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 2: I spoke with an investor in the last Hour, who 355 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 2: was particularly nervous that the FED might want to kind 356 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:29,479 Speaker 2: of further brandish it's it's sort of toughness and its 357 00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 2: ability to fight inflation, to once growth starts to weaken, 358 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:38,359 Speaker 2: to continue with this posture of hire for longer. Is 359 00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:39,760 Speaker 2: that something that you fear as well? 360 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 3: Well. 361 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:45,639 Speaker 7: I think that many strategist economists were were wrong in 362 00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:49,359 Speaker 7: thinking that the US was going to hit a you know, 363 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 7: a hard landing last year. We certainly didn't see it. 364 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 7: We're not seeing it this year so far. I think 365 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:58,600 Speaker 7: that US growth is certainly starting to modify. It' starting 366 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 7: to to slow down a bit, and many signals and 367 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:04,400 Speaker 7: I think the US is really hitting kind of this. 368 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:10,640 Speaker 1: Two two growth spurt, you know, with the lower. 369 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:14,160 Speaker 2: Incomes a k recovery right where the wealthy classes are 370 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,440 Speaker 2: doing fine, but the lower income strata not so. 371 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:17,240 Speaker 3: Fine, That's right. 372 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:19,040 Speaker 7: So I think that if you're the FED, you're looking 373 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,000 Speaker 7: at this and and so your hands are a bit 374 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,920 Speaker 7: tied and in terms of im trying to assess what 375 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 7: the economic growth landscape really is. And I think that 376 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,600 Speaker 7: going forward, you know, US growth is going to stabilize 377 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,479 Speaker 7: a bit. But I think at the at the end 378 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 7: of this year that we could start to see a 379 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 7: bit of a reacceleration. 380 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 2: And some investors that I talked to believe that generally speaking, 381 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 2: the market is not discounting a number of areas, particularly geopolitics, 382 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,360 Speaker 2: the two wars, that you could be a third war 383 00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 2: if you talk about a trade war between the US 384 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:55,080 Speaker 2: and China, that there are still a lot of risks 385 00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 2: out there that perhaps need to be better discounted. 386 00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 7: Oh indeed, I think that you know, we get questions 387 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,159 Speaker 7: about the US presidential election and the risks there. I 388 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 7: don't worry about that. What I do worry about are 389 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 7: other geopolitical risks. I think, what's going on. You know, 390 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,840 Speaker 7: we haven't seen wars in Europe and the Middle East 391 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,600 Speaker 7: at the same time for a very long time, and 392 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,359 Speaker 7: so I think that that's that's perhaps one of the 393 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:21,640 Speaker 7: risks that that needs to be better appreciated. 394 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,560 Speaker 2: Do you worry that whoever becomes president at some point 395 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,520 Speaker 2: they're going to be facing this notion that they need 396 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 2: to raise revenue, that the interest expenses are are hurting 397 00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 2: a lot, particularly given the high level. 398 00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:34,959 Speaker 3: Of interest rates. 399 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 2: And you know, I mean if president if form President 400 00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,360 Speaker 2: Trump wins, you're probably not going to see higher taxes, 401 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:42,920 Speaker 2: but you might if Joe Biden wins. 402 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:46,439 Speaker 7: Well, I think that the US debt burden has certainly 403 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,840 Speaker 7: been on the minds of many, and you know, a 404 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,639 Speaker 7: significant portion of the US debt was really racked up 405 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 7: over the past six years, you know, But ultimately, the 406 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 7: US government is one of the biggest holders of debt. 407 00:23:57,920 --> 00:23:59,720 Speaker 1: Institutions are holder of US debt. 408 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,880 Speaker 7: I so I don't really see that becoming a significant issue, 409 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:08,080 Speaker 7: although the higher interest payments certainly is is mind boggling. 410 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 7: I think that, you know, there's more payments and more 411 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 7: capital devoted to interest payments than defense spending in the US. 412 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 7: But I think ultimately, if the FED is going to 413 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:19,159 Speaker 7: cut rates, and we still expect them to do so, 414 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,600 Speaker 7: perhaps at the end of this year, that should provide 415 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:22,199 Speaker 7: some relief. 416 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 2: Okay, I give you the sixty second elevator pitch. What 417 00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:27,639 Speaker 2: is your best investment idea at the moment? 418 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,960 Speaker 7: I still really like emerging market equities and European equities. 419 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:36,720 Speaker 7: In Europe, European equities are relatively cheap, and both the 420 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,679 Speaker 7: French and the German economy you're starting to improve. I 421 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:43,399 Speaker 7: also really like non investment grade quality debt, things like 422 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:48,440 Speaker 7: you know, senior loans, bank loans, perhaps things like private credit. 423 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,439 Speaker 7: We continue to be an environment where we're being exposed 424 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:52,240 Speaker 7: to high interest rates. 425 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,400 Speaker 2: Makes sense you like private credit rather than just going 426 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 2: into the public markets. 427 00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:59,840 Speaker 7: Well, I think I think that given where spreads are 428 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,639 Speaker 7: right now, between HYYLD spreads, it doesn't make sense to 429 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,600 Speaker 7: take that risk there. But I think that private credits 430 00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,479 Speaker 7: continue to be you know, we continue to see very 431 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:12,080 Speaker 7: juicy spreads and I think that this is this is 432 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,000 Speaker 7: a diversifier to one's portfolio. 433 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:16,120 Speaker 3: Okay, well, David, thanks very much. 434 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 2: Monday morning. You got to hit the ground running. You 435 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,960 Speaker 2: come in here and get nine minutes of questions on 436 00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:25,119 Speaker 2: every front. Thank you for joining us in our studios 437 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:26,119 Speaker 2: on a Monday morning. 438 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 3: I mean, these guys eat it up. Don't worry that 439 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:30,680 Speaker 3: this is what they do for a living. David Chow's 440 00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:31,960 Speaker 3: been with us from Invesco. 441 00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:37,520 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you the 442 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 2: stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. 443 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,440 Speaker 2: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more 444 00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:48,320 Speaker 2: episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to 445 00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:52,159 Speaker 2: the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen 446 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,639 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 447 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:56,920 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.