WEBVTT - Early Look at Week 7 NFL Lines (Ep. 117) 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:17.520 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought 0:00:17.560 --> 0:00:20.080 to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:20.079 --> 0:00:22.520 Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is 0:00:22.640 --> 0:00:24.799 early in the week, which means it is time to 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:28.520 take a first look at the week seven NFL lines 0:00:28.560 --> 0:00:31.320 with me. Here to do that is Brendan Tuma, our 0:00:31.360 --> 0:00:33.720 friend from Fantasy Pros. Find him on Twitter at Too 0:00:33.800 --> 0:00:36.880 Much Tuma. Brendan, thank you for jumping on the podcast today. 0:00:36.920 --> 0:00:38.120 How are you, Dan? 0:00:38.200 --> 0:00:40.440 I'm excited to be here. As you know, and with 0:00:40.640 --> 0:00:43.239 all podcasts we do, I look forward to your on 0:00:43.479 --> 0:00:44.720 air bullying today. 0:00:45.159 --> 0:00:47.960 Yeah, that's how I work, and you're quite familiar with 0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:50.560 that having appeared on many podcasts with me, But this 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:52.479 is the first time you've been on the Betting Pros podcast. 0:00:52.520 --> 0:00:54.640 So I am excited to have you here because I 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:56.640 know you have been itching to come on and have 0:00:56.760 --> 0:01:00.240 me bully you on as many platforms as possible. Get 0:01:00.240 --> 0:01:02.720 into it. Let's talk about the latest software from bet MGM. 0:01:02.800 --> 0:01:04.759 New customers. You can bet ten dollars, you win two 0:01:04.800 --> 0:01:07.520 hundred dollars. It's a team you bet on scores a touchdown, 0:01:07.600 --> 0:01:09.320 so pretty much if you're not betting on the Jets, 0:01:09.319 --> 0:01:11.880 you're probably guaranteed to get there. Again, players who bet 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:14.080 ten dollars, you win two hundred dollars in free bets 0:01:14.440 --> 0:01:16.679 if the team you bet on scores a touchdown over 0:01:16.680 --> 0:01:19.279 at bet MGM. That's what the code juice one hundred. 0:01:19.280 --> 0:01:22.520 I mentioned every week The Daily Juice my favorite podcast 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:25.280 hosted by Matt prawlt a daily betting show. Again, you 0:01:25.319 --> 0:01:29.120 can find it anywhere you look for podcasts. New customers 0:01:29.200 --> 0:01:32.240 bet MGM ten dollars, win two hundred dollars in free bets. 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:34.160 It's a team you bet on scores a touchdown with 0:01:34.240 --> 0:01:36.560 the code Juice one hundred. Also, we're giving away the 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:38.280 sign take one Barkley jersey. 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:38.480 Again. 0:01:38.520 --> 0:01:40.200 All you do leave a review for the show on 0:01:40.319 --> 0:01:42.840 Apple podcast or castbox. Then go to Betting Pros dot 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:45.600 com slash review. That is it. That is simple, and 0:01:45.640 --> 0:01:47.760 if you want three times the entries, you get that 0:01:47.880 --> 0:01:50.320 if you subscribe to our YouTube channel over at YouTube 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:52.480 dot com slash Betting Pros. By the way, if you 0:01:52.560 --> 0:01:55.520 usually watch this one on our YouTube channel, this one 0:01:55.560 --> 0:01:58.000 is not being recorded on video. We're a little shorthanded 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:00.800 this week, so it's just the audiovers right now. Sorry, 0:02:00.800 --> 0:02:02.400 if you want to see my shining face and see 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:05.480 what Tuma actually look like. And again, regardless of this 0:02:05.520 --> 0:02:07.720 show being on there, it's good to subscribe to that 0:02:07.760 --> 0:02:10.480 YouTube channel anyway. Again, YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. 0:02:10.520 --> 0:02:13.600 We do a Sunday morning live stream eleven am to 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:15.679 twelve pm with me and Matt Parwl breaking down the 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:18.959 entire slate. We do some prop bets, all that great stuff, 0:02:19.000 --> 0:02:21.280 so make sure you are subscribed there in addition to 0:02:21.320 --> 0:02:23.600 the fact that it gets two three extra entries into 0:02:23.639 --> 0:02:26.680 this contest. All right, let's get into the games here. 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:28.720 Let's start with the Thursday night game weird one. Here, 0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:30.920 the Browns obviously are dealing with a ton of injuries. 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:33.200 There's a lot of uncertainty, so maybe there's value in 0:02:33.240 --> 0:02:35.400 betting it now. Maybe we need to wait to see 0:02:35.400 --> 0:02:38.600 what exactly happens here between Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham 0:02:38.639 --> 0:02:41.280 Junior and Nick Jubb, although latest news sounds like certainly 0:02:41.320 --> 0:02:42.640 Chubb is not going to be able to make it. 0:02:42.800 --> 0:02:45.079 The Browns here are at home against the Broncos. They 0:02:45.080 --> 0:02:48.280 are laying now three and a half points. Some books 0:02:48.280 --> 0:02:50.960 are already at three and the total here is a 0:02:51.040 --> 0:02:53.960 minuscool forty two and a half. What do you think 0:02:53.960 --> 0:02:54.640 of this line? 0:02:55.240 --> 0:02:57.880 Yeah, so the Browns are really hurting with this, and 0:02:57.919 --> 0:02:59.560 you and I I think one of the biggest edges 0:02:59.600 --> 0:03:02.160 you can find NFL. You know, sports betting is just 0:03:02.160 --> 0:03:04.359 getting so much more popular these days that we all 0:03:04.400 --> 0:03:07.280 know the Baker Mayfield injury storyline, the Nick Chubb one. 0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:09.600 I think one of the remaining edges that you can 0:03:09.639 --> 0:03:13.440 find for yourself, that listeners can can handle for themselves 0:03:13.520 --> 0:03:17.440 is looking at offensive line injuries. Defensive player injuries, those 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:20.640 for obvious reasons, just don't get as much publicity. But 0:03:20.840 --> 0:03:23.240 the Browns in Week six they were out, they were 0:03:23.240 --> 0:03:27.040 without Jedrick Wills or Jack Conklin, So you know it's 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:29.839 not just the injuries to the skill position players that 0:03:30.000 --> 0:03:32.720 are bothering them. And I think for most NFL teams, Dan, 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:34.800 I'm sure you agree with this, Like if an NFL 0:03:34.840 --> 0:03:37.960 team loses their starting left tackle, you know that's a problem, 0:03:38.280 --> 0:03:40.920 but most teams can you know, recover for that. It's 0:03:40.960 --> 0:03:45.400 where you get multiple two three injuries along your offensive 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:49.960 line that real issues start to happen. So the combination 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:52.600 of Baker, who is in the sling in the postgame 0:03:52.640 --> 0:03:56.640 press conference, not having their dynamic running backs, the offensive 0:03:56.640 --> 0:03:59.440 line being banged up. The early lean is just screaming 0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:02.440 Broncos to me, Are you in line with me on 0:04:02.480 --> 0:04:03.800 that or yeah? 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:07.560 Absolutely? I think that if you're listening to this and 0:04:07.600 --> 0:04:09.280 the line is still at three and a half, I mean, Brendan, 0:04:09.320 --> 0:04:11.520 we were talking, I mean I think it opened. What 0:04:11.640 --> 0:04:13.560 was it when it opened? Was it closer to five? 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:15.040 Is that what the opening line was? 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:18.440 I saw it at Browns minus five originally, and understandably 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:18.960 it's moved. 0:04:19.360 --> 0:04:22.320 Yeah. I look, there are books already that are out 0:04:22.320 --> 0:04:24.360 there that are at three. As we said, it's at 0:04:24.400 --> 0:04:26.840 three at Fox Bed, it's at three at Fandel. It's 0:04:26.839 --> 0:04:29.080 still the consensus line again at three and a half, 0:04:29.120 --> 0:04:31.880 because that's where it is at Draft Kings points. Bet 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:34.080 the majority of books. I would bet it immediately. You 0:04:34.080 --> 0:04:35.159 can get it at three and a half because if 0:04:35.160 --> 0:04:37.520 you're getting overfield goal here, even on the road with 0:04:37.600 --> 0:04:40.520 the Broncos. I mean that the Browns are so incredibly 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:43.200 banged up, and you did mention it that offensive line 0:04:43.200 --> 0:04:47.719 injuries are probably the most impactful from a betting line perspective. 0:04:47.760 --> 0:04:51.799 I mean, I agree that the public doesn't necessarily see 0:04:51.800 --> 0:04:53.960 that or feel that as much. But I mean, it's 0:04:53.960 --> 0:04:55.839 not just the fact that they don't have a running back. 0:04:56.000 --> 0:04:58.360 It's not just the fact that bigger Mayfield may not play. 0:04:58.400 --> 0:05:00.440 It's not just the fact that olde Beckham Jner may 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:03.359 not play, although those are all big factors, but it 0:05:03.440 --> 0:05:07.080 is something where again, the offensive line was absolutely decimated, 0:05:07.120 --> 0:05:09.200 and you know, the scheme is good enough to sort 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:11.600 of get around that, but not against the Broncos, who 0:05:11.600 --> 0:05:13.480 are really good against the run. They're probably going to 0:05:13.520 --> 0:05:15.720 be pretty angry and pumped up here. They need a 0:05:15.800 --> 0:05:17.560 win here. They start at three and oh they're now 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:20.680 three and three. So I agree, if you can get 0:05:20.680 --> 0:05:22.840 it over, you know, even getting the field goal, I'm 0:05:22.839 --> 0:05:24.680 fine with it begetting overfield goal. I would love to 0:05:24.680 --> 0:05:26.360 get it. Any thoughts on the total, I mean, it's 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:28.560 forty two and a half, so it's pretty pretty light here. 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:31.160 We always know that weird things happen on Thursday night. 0:05:31.279 --> 0:05:33.640 The games just don't always play out the same way 0:05:33.680 --> 0:05:36.480 they might have otherwise on a Sunday. So with that, 0:05:36.560 --> 0:05:38.479 you know, and all the Browns injuries, they think, yeah, 0:05:38.520 --> 0:05:40.640 grabbing the points makes sense. This is such a Thursday 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:43.400 night game too, just in the sense where my instant 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:47.800 lean is underdog and under expecting kind of a low 0:05:47.839 --> 0:05:50.080 scoing game. Here. The Broncos and Browns have two of 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:52.480 the better defenses. Again, the Browns are a little banged 0:05:52.520 --> 0:05:55.960 up all around, defensively included. But but yeah, I think 0:05:56.000 --> 0:05:57.960 that that would be the play that I would go to. 0:05:58.240 --> 0:06:01.279 I do know that myself and some others that I 0:06:01.400 --> 0:06:04.560 like to make some bets with we on Thursdays often 0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:07.240 prefer taking the underdog and under just because the games 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:09.160 are are always so weird and you never know how 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:11.320 those good to shake, so we will grab the points 0:06:11.320 --> 0:06:11.880 in this case. 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:14.480 Yeah, I agree with that. Let's go to The Falcons 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:17.800 are visiting the Dolphins. The Falcons are laying two and 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:20.120 a half points here, and the totals forty seven and 0:06:20.200 --> 0:06:22.280 a half. The weird thing here, obviously, is that the 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:26.080 Dolphins declined the bye after London, so they're gonna be 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:28.080 a little jet lagged, I'm tureing me, while the Falcons 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:30.680 came off London and they are on a bye off 0:06:30.720 --> 0:06:33.440 the bye, pardon me, so they're well rested here. Calvin 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:34.919 Ridley should be back for this one. What do you 0:06:34.920 --> 0:06:36.680 think about this one where the Falcons are laying two 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:38.599 and a half total forty seven and a half. 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:40.960 We should mention ahead of time that this is it's 0:06:41.040 --> 0:06:43.960 kind of a gross slate for NFL games this weekend. 0:06:43.960 --> 0:06:46.200 There's not a lot. There's a six teams on a bye. 0:06:46.360 --> 0:06:49.320 A lot of the good teams, the Bills, the Chargers, 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:52.680 the Cowboys aren't playing this week and this game. I 0:06:52.680 --> 0:06:54.920 forget where I heard this, but I laughed when I did. 0:06:54.960 --> 0:06:56.840 It feels like we've already had this game this year. 0:06:56.920 --> 0:07:01.760 Falcons Dolphins too, obviously of the bigger underperformers this season. 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:04.520 I do think it's time to start criticizing this Dolphins 0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:06.800 regime a bit. I know it's easy to do so 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:10.120 after they just lost to the Jaguars in London, and 0:07:10.160 --> 0:07:12.320 it's easy to do so because they only have one 0:07:12.360 --> 0:07:15.600 win this season. But they had so much draft capital 0:07:15.680 --> 0:07:18.080 coming into this rebuild in some of those first round picks. 0:07:18.080 --> 0:07:20.440 It's not just too they took some offensive linemen in 0:07:20.480 --> 0:07:22.920 the first round in twenty twenty who aren't even active 0:07:22.960 --> 0:07:24.920 on game days. It's just been a bit of a 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:28.080 disaster in that they're on their third offensive coordinator in 0:07:28.240 --> 0:07:31.160 three years. You add in the fact that they are 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:33.600 coming off the London game and the Falcons are coming 0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:38.000 off a buy, and I would lean Falcons in this situation. 0:07:38.120 --> 0:07:41.480 I usually like to zig when others are zagging, and 0:07:41.840 --> 0:07:44.080 you know, take teams coming off a loss and fade 0:07:44.080 --> 0:07:47.160 teams coming off a big emotional win. But in this case, 0:07:47.200 --> 0:07:48.960 you just add in all those factors and I can't 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:50.040 get away from the Falcons. 0:07:50.840 --> 0:07:53.680 Yeah, I mean, I think I'm probably going to stay 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:55.760 away from it because I do think that the Dolphins 0:07:55.800 --> 0:07:57.880 are a little bit better than they've shown. They obviously 0:07:57.960 --> 0:08:00.760 have been pretty banged up at receiving or I think 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:04.840 to help them offensively for sure, But I just I 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:06.960 don't think I can fully factor in what it's like 0:08:07.040 --> 0:08:10.720 to come off London and come off a bad loss 0:08:10.760 --> 0:08:14.200 to a Jaguars team and then come back to the 0:08:14.240 --> 0:08:17.640 States and play a well rested Falcons team who again 0:08:17.960 --> 0:08:20.400 isn't quite as bad as they look sort of early 0:08:20.440 --> 0:08:22.480 on in the year where I think everybody was burying them. 0:08:22.520 --> 0:08:26.120 So I think it's probably a game that I'm gonna avoid. 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:30.480 I actually could see teasing up the Dolphins in a 0:08:30.520 --> 0:08:32.720 two team teaser two eight and a half points, getting 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:35.760 them over both crossing both key numbers here. But as 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:38.000 a regular bet, I think I'm just gonna stay away 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:40.040 from it. But I think if you have to go 0:08:40.120 --> 0:08:42.319 one way, you'd probably go to Falcons, just because again, 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:44.360 coming off the by, I just don't think that you 0:08:44.360 --> 0:08:47.520 can possibly back the Dolphins at you know, getting less 0:08:47.520 --> 0:08:49.640 than a field goal here. How about Washington now is 0:08:49.720 --> 0:08:53.800 visiting Green Bay. The Packers are currently laying nine and 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:56.800 a half points and the total is forty eight and 0:08:56.840 --> 0:08:57.560 a half. What do you think? 0:08:58.120 --> 0:09:00.840 There are some big spread this week? This is obviously 0:09:01.120 --> 0:09:03.120 one of them. And with the big spreads a lot 0:09:03.160 --> 0:09:06.080 of time, I like to take the points. You know, 0:09:06.240 --> 0:09:09.760 NFL teams are usually closer in competition than the general 0:09:09.840 --> 0:09:12.360 public gives them credit for it. This is one where 0:09:12.400 --> 0:09:14.719 I would lean the Packers early, and it's part of 0:09:14.760 --> 0:09:17.960 it is just really a bet against Washington because it's 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:20.319 you know, it's no secret their defense has been one 0:09:20.360 --> 0:09:22.800 of the more disappointing units in all of football this season. 0:09:22.840 --> 0:09:25.320 That's a saying that we're hearing a lot lately, and 0:09:25.360 --> 0:09:28.040 it's not just that, It's not just that they don't 0:09:28.040 --> 0:09:29.720 know the talent like their d line is one of 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:33.199 the most talented in the NFL. It's that they don't 0:09:33.200 --> 0:09:35.400 do anything with that talent. They don't run stunts, they 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:39.920 don't design coverages, and their secondary is just really easy 0:09:39.960 --> 0:09:42.720 to attack. You remember early in the season, the Bills 0:09:42.760 --> 0:09:48.040 offense were struggling. Josh Allen himself was struggling, but heading 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:49.720 into that Washington game, a lot of people thought it 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:52.719 was a good bounce back spot because Washington's defense, they 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:56.079 just they play really static. They rush their four passers 0:09:56.120 --> 0:09:58.719 and they sit back and teams, smart teams and good 0:09:58.800 --> 0:10:01.080 quarterbacks can figure it out. And on the other side 0:10:01.120 --> 0:10:03.079 of the ball this week, it's going to be Amon 0:10:03.160 --> 0:10:06.040 Rodgers and DeVante Adams and Matt Lafleur and all those guys. 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:08.679 So I think this is one where the Packers can 0:10:08.760 --> 0:10:11.560 lay the hammer a bit. I know it's not the Bears, 0:10:11.559 --> 0:10:15.400 but I still expect Rodgers to own them in this one. Yeah. 0:10:15.440 --> 0:10:17.920 I do lean the Packers here as long as it's 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:21.400 single digits basically, which it is right now. Washington just 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:23.839 looks like it's kind of in disarray right now. The 0:10:23.880 --> 0:10:26.960 whole team the whole year has kind of just looked unsettled, 0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:29.800 and we mentioned every week on the show. Basically the 0:10:29.840 --> 0:10:33.520 defense and how badly it's underperformed is one of the 0:10:33.559 --> 0:10:37.800 biggest surprises to me as somebody who obviously dives deep, 0:10:37.840 --> 0:10:40.400 not only on a betting side, but from a fantasy standpoint, 0:10:40.720 --> 0:10:42.400 you know, when we get into the season and makes 0:10:42.440 --> 0:10:45.960 projections and everything like that. I'm just I'm shocked with 0:10:46.240 --> 0:10:49.160 how poor the defense is played overall. So you certainly 0:10:49.160 --> 0:10:52.319 could see Aaron Rodgers here carving them up and again, 0:10:52.360 --> 0:10:55.400 given how they performed against Kansas City, given how Taylor 0:10:55.480 --> 0:10:58.960 Heineg's coming back down to Earth, Antonio Gibson is banged up, 0:10:59.000 --> 0:11:00.840 he may not be able to play. Even Terry McLaurin 0:11:00.880 --> 0:11:03.880 coming into the game, They're just it's just a team 0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:05.719 that feels like you want to fade right now. So 0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:07.839 as long as you can get it under ten, I 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:09.680 wouldn't be surprised if it hits ten, by the way, 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:13.080 because I think this seems like a game where the 0:11:13.120 --> 0:11:15.520 public's probably going to back the Packers here. Under ten, 0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:17.959 then you'll eventually get some resistance. But I wouldn't be 0:11:18.000 --> 0:11:19.800 surprised if it moved up a little bit. So if 0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:23.480 you do like it for me, I would probably hit it. Now, 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:26.760 let's get to a pretty big here divisional game. You've 0:11:26.760 --> 0:11:29.480 got the Ravens taking on the Bengals in Baltimore. The 0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:31.920 Ravens are laying six and a half, the totals forty 0:11:32.040 --> 0:11:33.240 seven and a half. What do you think. 0:11:34.120 --> 0:11:37.040 Yeah, so with the big Bengals and the Ravens, we 0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:39.440 obviously normally think of the AFC North, as you know, 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:45.200 very tough, run the ball, defense minded football. This season, 0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:47.199 the Bengals and the Ravens are two of the highest 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:50.240 neutral pass rated teams of the season, meaning that in 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:52.679 neutral gamescrips, they are a liking to throw the ball. 0:11:52.720 --> 0:11:55.480 Lamar Jackson is dropping back to throw more than he 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:58.360 ever has in his career. But what the Bengals are 0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:00.880 trying to do this season and the teams with Joe 0:12:00.920 --> 0:12:03.720 Mixon healthy, is really, you know, take some pressure off 0:12:03.720 --> 0:12:07.319 the offensive line. I've been pretty impressed with Zach Taylor 0:12:07.400 --> 0:12:08.920 so far this year. I think a lot of us, 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:11.280 especially like you said in the Fantasy World, kind of 0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:14.400 expected the Bengals to come out and just throw and 0:12:14.520 --> 0:12:16.880 chuck and have no regard for the offensive line. They're 0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:19.920 trying to establish a run game, but it seems like 0:12:19.960 --> 0:12:23.360 they do really want to lean on Mixing when he's healthy. 0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:27.160 He is healthy in this one. AFC North the spread, 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:29.680 I'm not positive what to do with it, but I 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:32.720 do lean the under with these two. 0:12:33.600 --> 0:12:36.000 Yeah, this is just a game I don't really want 0:12:36.000 --> 0:12:39.560 to touch at this point. I hate over unders. It's stupid, 0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:42.120 I guess, and it's simplistic, but I really hate over 0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:45.520 unders with the Ravens. I just do because you know, 0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:48.559 at any given time, no matter what, they could look 0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:50.880 totally under control. And you know, I think back to 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:53.719 the Monday night game, you know, where they eventually won 0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:57.319 in overtime, and how to stagnant their offense looked in 0:12:57.360 --> 0:12:58.959 the first half against the Colts, and then they just 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:01.800 went absolutely in the second half, which I think they're 0:13:01.800 --> 0:13:05.080 able to do at any given time. So this is 0:13:05.120 --> 0:13:07.680 really something where I don't have a great feel for it. 0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:09.920 I think if I had to go somewhere with the spread, 0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:13.640 I would probably lean the Ravens. I have not fully 0:13:13.679 --> 0:13:16.240 bought into the Bengals yet, as impressive as obviously they 0:13:16.280 --> 0:13:18.520 were against I don't know whatever you want to call 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:21.439 the Lions team from last week, but I'm probably staying 0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:24.800 away from it. I think right now, what about the 0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:28.480 Patriots at home taking on the Jets. Patriots laying seven, 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:32.520 the total is forty two and a half. Patriots coming 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:35.320 off a really really devastating loss here, a game that 0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:37.560 looked like they were going to at least be able 0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:39.880 to win. Certainly betters are are burned by it, the 0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:42.800 betters who had both the under and the Patriots there 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:44.959 last week. So lank seven forty two and a half 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:45.760 in New England. 0:13:46.360 --> 0:13:48.680 Yeah. So we like to joke about you, you know, 0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:51.000 being a little bit of an on air pully whenever 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:52.640 I'm around on a pod. But this is I think 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:55.040 where I get you back, because, as you know, listeners 0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:56.800 know you are a Jets fan, and I'm coming in 0:13:56.880 --> 0:14:00.520 here as a Patriots fan. My team is face. Did 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:02.080 you say the spread for this one? I think I 0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:03.319 saw it at minus seven? 0:14:03.559 --> 0:14:04.199 Yeah, at seven? 0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:07.440 Okay? Yeah. So, first of all, the story of the 0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:09.959 Patriots season has just been Mac Jones, that the team 0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:14.120 has seemingly found their quarterback. I think Mac against the 0:14:14.160 --> 0:14:17.600 Cowboys this past Sunday was the best game I've seen 0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:20.480 by a rookie quarterback of any of the six rookie 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:24.560 quarterbacks so far this season. I think the Patriots being 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:28.880 zero to four at home is not something that necessarily 0:14:29.040 --> 0:14:32.200 should factor into Better's minds. But it's just like this 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:35.680 Patriots team is not what it once was. Of course 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:39.200 we know that. I don't think it's dropped or their 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:42.000 stature within the league has dropped low enough to the 0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:45.080 point where they aren't going to take care of business 0:14:45.120 --> 0:14:47.440 against the Jets. This is the second time we've seen 0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:51.440 these two teams play. I know that Zach Wilson and 0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:54.960 Robert Sala and company are coming off a buye, but 0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:57.960 this is a spot even with the seven points. And 0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:01.240 I don't love huge spreads when the team doesn't have 0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:03.880 a lot of offensive firepower because they might not be 0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:07.320 able to, you know, really extend those leads. But given 0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:09.920 everything we've seen from the Patriots this year, it's just 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:12.120 such a get right spot for them. I know they 0:15:12.160 --> 0:15:14.400 struggled against the Texans on the road. This is just 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:16.640 it feels a little different now that it's at home 0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:18.800 and the Pats have had a tough schedule and they've 0:15:18.800 --> 0:15:20.400 gotten some of these games out of their way. So 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:23.680 iilean PATRIOTSY. I know you might criticize me for calling 0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:25.520 it a bit of a homer pick, But what say 0:15:25.560 --> 0:15:26.560 you about your Jets? 0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:30.960 Ah, I don't really have a good lean on it. 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:33.840 If it gets too over a touchdown, I will probably 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:36.800 find the value with the Jets, and I think in 0:15:36.800 --> 0:15:39.280 a vacuum, if you take a step back, this strikes 0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:43.040 me as probably a spot where more quote unquote sharp 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:45.040 betters are going to be on the Jets. I know 0:15:45.360 --> 0:15:47.920 the Patriots beat up on the Jets earlier in the year, 0:15:47.960 --> 0:15:49.800 but it's a little bit of a different team. I 0:15:49.800 --> 0:15:52.920 think the Jets, not that they're playing well or anything 0:15:52.960 --> 0:15:55.480 like that, but they're at least a little healthier here 0:15:55.560 --> 0:15:58.120 that get to come off a bye. The Patriots played 0:15:58.120 --> 0:16:00.840 a really tough overtime game. They're probably a little tired 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:04.080 right now. And really the Patriots just they're not explosive. 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:07.240 They don't have the horses. And again, they hung with 0:16:07.320 --> 0:16:10.800 the Cowboys absolutely as kind of I expected, and they 0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:13.200 find a way to hang with teams, you know, like 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:15.280 the Bucks, where they're expected to get blown out, but 0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:19.040 they really haven't played that great against teams that they're 0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:22.120 expected to dominate. So it's probably a stay away for 0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:24.880 me here at seven. If it gets to over seven. 0:16:24.960 --> 0:16:28.120 I probably will take the Jets here coming off the buye, 0:16:28.800 --> 0:16:31.120 but I doubt i'd take the Patriot Like I'm just 0:16:31.160 --> 0:16:33.440 not interested in backing the Patriots team right here with 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:35.560 anything like a big spread. And we talked, I mean 0:16:35.560 --> 0:16:38.120 you mentioned it. There are a lot of expreads this week. 0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:41.240 So if you like underdog betting, which you know probably 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:43.720 the quote unquote sharp side is going to be taking 0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:46.400 a lot of the underdogs, this is your week. I'm 0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:48.720 not sure it's your week here with the Panthers though, 0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:53.080 visiting the Giants. The Panthers are laying three here. Total 0:16:53.120 --> 0:16:55.880 is forty three. A lot of low totals in these games, 0:16:55.880 --> 0:16:57.560 which again you mentioned it, this is not the most 0:16:57.840 --> 0:17:00.920 exciting week of football games. Actually, with so many teams 0:17:01.000 --> 0:17:03.640 on buy, a lot of the matchups are kind of disappointing. 0:17:03.640 --> 0:17:07.199 But look, the Panthers are coming in here. They somehow 0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:09.080 made a game of that against the Vikings, even though 0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:12.000 they look like they were about to get completely blown out. 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:16.359 The Giants got demolished by the Rams. You know, felt 0:17:16.440 --> 0:17:18.920 kind of bad for them, frankly. They are dealing with 0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:22.280 offensive line injuries, they are dealing with injuries to their 0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:25.040 receiving corps, not sure who's going to be healthy here, 0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:29.480 Giants getting three at home with the total at forty three. 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:30.080 What do you think? 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:32.119 Yeah, so, I think the Giants is a little bit 0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:34.320 of a similar situation to the Browns, where there's just 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:36.879 like so many injuries that we need to wait and 0:17:36.920 --> 0:17:39.720 see a little later in the week, who exactly is 0:17:39.720 --> 0:17:42.399 going to be playing, especially among their receivers, and if 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:45.320 Sakwan Barkley is going to be back. But in general, 0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:48.080 this game and this game just comes down to two 0:17:48.119 --> 0:17:51.080 teams that one team I like what they're doing overall 0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:54.400 as a franchise, and one that I don't like backing 0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:56.960 or like trusting. The Panthers. They are coming off three 0:17:57.000 --> 0:17:59.600 straight losses and they've just they've just been doing a 0:17:59.640 --> 0:18:01.520 really lot of smart things the past few years. I 0:18:01.520 --> 0:18:04.320 think they've added a lot of defensive talent over their 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:07.399 past three drafts. Brian Burns, Derek Brown, Jeremy Chin, and 0:18:07.400 --> 0:18:09.920 then J. C. Horn this year before he got hurt, 0:18:10.160 --> 0:18:13.320 he got he went down, they instantly traded for CJ. Henderson. 0:18:13.359 --> 0:18:16.040 They traded for Stefan Gilmore, and I think Gilmore has 0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:17.440 a chance to play in this one. 0:18:17.520 --> 0:18:17.760