Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought
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Speaker 1: this contest. All right, let's get into the games here.
Speaker 1: Let's start with the Thursday night game weird one. Here,
Speaker 1: the Browns obviously are dealing with a ton of injuries.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of uncertainty, so maybe there's value in
Speaker 1: betting it now. Maybe we need to wait to see
Speaker 1: what exactly happens here between Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham
Speaker 1: Junior and Nick Jubb, although latest news sounds like certainly
Speaker 1: Chubb is not going to be able to make it.
Speaker 1: The Browns here are at home against the Broncos. They
Speaker 1: are laying now three and a half points. Some books
Speaker 1: are already at three and the total here is a
Speaker 1: minuscool forty two and a half. What do you think
Speaker 1: of this line?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so the Browns are really hurting with this, and
Speaker 2: you and I I think one of the biggest edges
Speaker 2: you can find NFL. You know, sports betting is just
Speaker 2: getting so much more popular these days that we all
Speaker 2: know the Baker Mayfield injury storyline, the Nick Chubb one.
Speaker 2: I think one of the remaining edges that you can
Speaker 2: find for yourself, that listeners can can handle for themselves
Speaker 2: is looking at offensive line injuries. Defensive player injuries, those
Speaker 2: for obvious reasons, just don't get as much publicity. But
Speaker 2: the Browns in Week six they were out, they were
Speaker 2: without Jedrick Wills or Jack Conklin, So you know it's
Speaker 2: not just the injuries to the skill position players that
Speaker 2: are bothering them. And I think for most NFL teams, Dan,
Speaker 2: I'm sure you agree with this, Like if an NFL
Speaker 2: team loses their starting left tackle, you know that's a problem,
Speaker 2: but most teams can you know, recover for that. It's
Speaker 2: where you get multiple two three injuries along your offensive
Speaker 2: line that real issues start to happen. So the combination
Speaker 2: of Baker, who is in the sling in the postgame
Speaker 2: press conference, not having their dynamic running backs, the offensive
Speaker 2: line being banged up. The early lean is just screaming
Speaker 2: Broncos to me, Are you in line with me on
Speaker 2: that or yeah?
Speaker 1: Absolutely? I think that if you're listening to this and
Speaker 1: the line is still at three and a half, I mean, Brendan,
Speaker 1: we were talking, I mean I think it opened. What
Speaker 1: was it when it opened? Was it closer to five?
Speaker 1: Is that what the opening line was?
Speaker 2: I saw it at Browns minus five originally, and understandably
Speaker 2: it's moved.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I look, there are books already that are out
Speaker 1: there that are at three. As we said, it's at
Speaker 1: three at Fox Bed, it's at three at Fandel. It's
Speaker 1: still the consensus line again at three and a half,
Speaker 1: because that's where it is at Draft Kings points. Bet
Speaker 1: the majority of books. I would bet it immediately. You
Speaker 1: can get it at three and a half because if
Speaker 1: you're getting overfield goal here, even on the road with
Speaker 1: the Broncos. I mean that the Browns are so incredibly
Speaker 1: banged up, and you did mention it that offensive line
Speaker 1: injuries are probably the most impactful from a betting line perspective.
Speaker 1: I mean, I agree that the public doesn't necessarily see
Speaker 1: that or feel that as much. But I mean, it's
Speaker 1: not just the fact that they don't have a running back.
Speaker 1: It's not just the fact that bigger Mayfield may not play.
Speaker 1: It's not just the fact that olde Beckham Jner may
Speaker 1: not play, although those are all big factors, but it
Speaker 1: is something where again, the offensive line was absolutely decimated,
Speaker 1: and you know, the scheme is good enough to sort
Speaker 1: of get around that, but not against the Broncos, who
Speaker 1: are really good against the run. They're probably going to
Speaker 1: be pretty angry and pumped up here. They need a
Speaker 1: win here. They start at three and oh they're now
Speaker 1: three and three. So I agree, if you can get
Speaker 1: it over, you know, even getting the field goal, I'm
Speaker 1: fine with it begetting overfield goal. I would love to
Speaker 1: get it. Any thoughts on the total, I mean, it's
Speaker 1: forty two and a half, so it's pretty pretty light here.
Speaker 2: We always know that weird things happen on Thursday night.
Speaker 2: The games just don't always play out the same way
Speaker 2: they might have otherwise on a Sunday. So with that,
Speaker 2: you know, and all the Browns injuries, they think, yeah,
Speaker 2: grabbing the points makes sense. This is such a Thursday
Speaker 2: night game too, just in the sense where my instant
Speaker 2: lean is underdog and under expecting kind of a low
Speaker 2: scoing game. Here. The Broncos and Browns have two of
Speaker 2: the better defenses. Again, the Browns are a little banged
Speaker 2: up all around, defensively included. But but yeah, I think
Speaker 2: that that would be the play that I would go to.
Speaker 2: I do know that myself and some others that I
Speaker 2: like to make some bets with we on Thursdays often
Speaker 2: prefer taking the underdog and under just because the games
Speaker 2: are are always so weird and you never know how
Speaker 2: those good to shake, so we will grab the points
Speaker 2: in this case.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with that. Let's go to The Falcons
Speaker 1: are visiting the Dolphins. The Falcons are laying two and
Speaker 1: a half points here, and the totals forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half. The weird thing here, obviously, is that the
Speaker 1: Dolphins declined the bye after London, so they're gonna be
Speaker 1: a little jet lagged, I'm tureing me, while the Falcons
Speaker 1: came off London and they are on a bye off
Speaker 1: the bye, pardon me, so they're well rested here. Calvin
Speaker 1: Ridley should be back for this one. What do you
Speaker 1: think about this one where the Falcons are laying two
Speaker 1: and a half total forty seven and a half.
Speaker 2: We should mention ahead of time that this is it's
Speaker 2: kind of a gross slate for NFL games this weekend.
Speaker 2: There's not a lot. There's a six teams on a bye.
Speaker 2: A lot of the good teams, the Bills, the Chargers,
Speaker 2: the Cowboys aren't playing this week and this game. I
Speaker 2: forget where I heard this, but I laughed when I did.
Speaker 2: It feels like we've already had this game this year.
Speaker 2: Falcons Dolphins too, obviously of the bigger underperformers this season.
Speaker 2: I do think it's time to start criticizing this Dolphins
Speaker 2: regime a bit. I know it's easy to do so
Speaker 2: after they just lost to the Jaguars in London, and
Speaker 2: it's easy to do so because they only have one
Speaker 2: win this season. But they had so much draft capital
Speaker 2: coming into this rebuild in some of those first round picks.
Speaker 2: It's not just too they took some offensive linemen in
Speaker 2: the first round in twenty twenty who aren't even active
Speaker 2: on game days. It's just been a bit of a
Speaker 2: disaster in that they're on their third offensive coordinator in
Speaker 2: three years. You add in the fact that they are
Speaker 2: coming off the London game and the Falcons are coming
Speaker 2: off a buy, and I would lean Falcons in this situation.
Speaker 2: I usually like to zig when others are zagging, and
Speaker 2: you know, take teams coming off a loss and fade
Speaker 2: teams coming off a big emotional win. But in this case,
Speaker 2: you just add in all those factors and I can't
Speaker 2: get away from the Falcons.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think I'm probably going to stay
Speaker 1: away from it because I do think that the Dolphins
Speaker 1: are a little bit better than they've shown. They obviously
Speaker 1: have been pretty banged up at receiving or I think
Speaker 1: to help them offensively for sure, But I just I
Speaker 1: don't think I can fully factor in what it's like
Speaker 1: to come off London and come off a bad loss
Speaker 1: to a Jaguars team and then come back to the
Speaker 1: States and play a well rested Falcons team who again
Speaker 1: isn't quite as bad as they look sort of early
Speaker 1: on in the year where I think everybody was burying them.
Speaker 1: So I think it's probably a game that I'm gonna avoid.
Speaker 1: I actually could see teasing up the Dolphins in a
Speaker 1: two team teaser two eight and a half points, getting
Speaker 1: them over both crossing both key numbers here. But as
Speaker 1: a regular bet, I think I'm just gonna stay away
Speaker 1: from it. But I think if you have to go
Speaker 1: one way, you'd probably go to Falcons, just because again,
Speaker 1: coming off the by, I just don't think that you
Speaker 1: can possibly back the Dolphins at you know, getting less
Speaker 1: than a field goal here. How about Washington now is
Speaker 1: visiting Green Bay. The Packers are currently laying nine and
Speaker 1: a half points and the total is forty eight and
Speaker 1: a half. What do you think?
Speaker 2: There are some big spread this week? This is obviously
Speaker 2: one of them. And with the big spreads a lot
Speaker 2: of time, I like to take the points. You know,
Speaker 2: NFL teams are usually closer in competition than the general
Speaker 2: public gives them credit for it. This is one where
Speaker 2: I would lean the Packers early, and it's part of
Speaker 2: it is just really a bet against Washington because it's
Speaker 2: you know, it's no secret their defense has been one
Speaker 2: of the more disappointing units in all of football this season.
Speaker 2: That's a saying that we're hearing a lot lately, and
Speaker 2: it's not just that, It's not just that they don't
Speaker 2: know the talent like their d line is one of
Speaker 2: the most talented in the NFL. It's that they don't
Speaker 2: do anything with that talent. They don't run stunts, they
Speaker 2: don't design coverages, and their secondary is just really easy
Speaker 2: to attack. You remember early in the season, the Bills
Speaker 2: offense were struggling. Josh Allen himself was struggling, but heading
Speaker 2: into that Washington game, a lot of people thought it
Speaker 2: was a good bounce back spot because Washington's defense, they
Speaker 2: just they play really static. They rush their four passers
Speaker 2: and they sit back and teams, smart teams and good
Speaker 2: quarterbacks can figure it out. And on the other side
Speaker 2: of the ball this week, it's going to be Amon
Speaker 2: Rodgers and DeVante Adams and Matt Lafleur and all those guys.
Speaker 2: So I think this is one where the Packers can
Speaker 2: lay the hammer a bit. I know it's not the Bears,
Speaker 2: but I still expect Rodgers to own them in this one. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I do lean the Packers here as long as it's
Speaker 1: single digits basically, which it is right now. Washington just
Speaker 1: looks like it's kind of in disarray right now. The
Speaker 1: whole team the whole year has kind of just looked unsettled,
Speaker 1: and we mentioned every week on the show. Basically the
Speaker 1: defense and how badly it's underperformed is one of the
Speaker 1: biggest surprises to me as somebody who obviously dives deep,
Speaker 1: not only on a betting side, but from a fantasy standpoint,
Speaker 1: you know, when we get into the season and makes
Speaker 1: projections and everything like that. I'm just I'm shocked with
Speaker 1: how poor the defense is played overall. So you certainly
Speaker 1: could see Aaron Rodgers here carving them up and again,
Speaker 1: given how they performed against Kansas City, given how Taylor
Speaker 1: Heineg's coming back down to Earth, Antonio Gibson is banged up,
Speaker 1: he may not be able to play. Even Terry McLaurin
Speaker 1: coming into the game, They're just it's just a team
Speaker 1: that feels like you want to fade right now. So
Speaker 1: as long as you can get it under ten, I
Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised if it hits ten, by the way,
Speaker 1: because I think this seems like a game where the
Speaker 1: public's probably going to back the Packers here. Under ten,
Speaker 1: then you'll eventually get some resistance. But I wouldn't be
Speaker 1: surprised if it moved up a little bit. So if
Speaker 1: you do like it for me, I would probably hit it. Now,
Speaker 1: let's get to a pretty big here divisional game. You've
Speaker 1: got the Ravens taking on the Bengals in Baltimore. The
Speaker 1: Ravens are laying six and a half, the totals forty
Speaker 1: seven and a half. What do you think.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so with the big Bengals and the Ravens, we
Speaker 2: obviously normally think of the AFC North, as you know,
Speaker 2: very tough, run the ball, defense minded football. This season,
Speaker 2: the Bengals and the Ravens are two of the highest
Speaker 2: neutral pass rated teams of the season, meaning that in
Speaker 2: neutral gamescrips, they are a liking to throw the ball.
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson is dropping back to throw more than he
Speaker 2: ever has in his career. But what the Bengals are
Speaker 2: trying to do this season and the teams with Joe
Speaker 2: Mixon healthy, is really, you know, take some pressure off
Speaker 2: the offensive line. I've been pretty impressed with Zach Taylor
Speaker 2: so far this year. I think a lot of us,
Speaker 2: especially like you said in the Fantasy World, kind of
Speaker 2: expected the Bengals to come out and just throw and
Speaker 2: chuck and have no regard for the offensive line. They're
Speaker 2: trying to establish a run game, but it seems like
Speaker 2: they do really want to lean on Mixing when he's healthy.
Speaker 2: He is healthy in this one. AFC North the spread,
Speaker 2: I'm not positive what to do with it, but I
Speaker 2: do lean the under with these two.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is just a game I don't really want
Speaker 1: to touch at this point. I hate over unders. It's stupid,
Speaker 1: I guess, and it's simplistic, but I really hate over
Speaker 1: unders with the Ravens. I just do because you know,
Speaker 1: at any given time, no matter what, they could look
Speaker 1: totally under control. And you know, I think back to
Speaker 1: the Monday night game, you know, where they eventually won
Speaker 1: in overtime, and how to stagnant their offense looked in
Speaker 1: the first half against the Colts, and then they just
Speaker 1: went absolutely in the second half, which I think they're
Speaker 1: able to do at any given time. So this is
Speaker 1: really something where I don't have a great feel for it.
Speaker 1: I think if I had to go somewhere with the spread,
Speaker 1: I would probably lean the Ravens. I have not fully
Speaker 1: bought into the Bengals yet, as impressive as obviously they
Speaker 1: were against I don't know whatever you want to call
Speaker 1: the Lions team from last week, but I'm probably staying
Speaker 1: away from it. I think right now, what about the
Speaker 1: Patriots at home taking on the Jets. Patriots laying seven,
Speaker 1: the total is forty two and a half. Patriots coming
Speaker 1: off a really really devastating loss here, a game that
Speaker 1: looked like they were going to at least be able
Speaker 1: to win. Certainly betters are are burned by it, the
Speaker 1: betters who had both the under and the Patriots there
Speaker 1: last week. So lank seven forty two and a half
Speaker 1: in New England.
Speaker 2: Yeah. So we like to joke about you, you know,
Speaker 2: being a little bit of an on air pully whenever
Speaker 2: I'm around on a pod. But this is I think
Speaker 2: where I get you back, because, as you know, listeners
Speaker 2: know you are a Jets fan, and I'm coming in
Speaker 2: here as a Patriots fan. My team is face. Did
Speaker 2: you say the spread for this one? I think I
Speaker 2: saw it at minus seven?
Speaker 1: Yeah, at seven?
Speaker 2: Okay? Yeah. So, first of all, the story of the
Speaker 2: Patriots season has just been Mac Jones, that the team
Speaker 2: has seemingly found their quarterback. I think Mac against the
Speaker 2: Cowboys this past Sunday was the best game I've seen
Speaker 2: by a rookie quarterback of any of the six rookie
Speaker 2: quarterbacks so far this season. I think the Patriots being
Speaker 2: zero to four at home is not something that necessarily
Speaker 2: should factor into Better's minds. But it's just like this
Speaker 2: Patriots team is not what it once was. Of course
Speaker 2: we know that. I don't think it's dropped or their
Speaker 2: stature within the league has dropped low enough to the
Speaker 2: point where they aren't going to take care of business
Speaker 2: against the Jets. This is the second time we've seen
Speaker 2: these two teams play. I know that Zach Wilson and
Speaker 2: Robert Sala and company are coming off a buye, but
Speaker 2: this is a spot even with the seven points. And
Speaker 2: I don't love huge spreads when the team doesn't have
Speaker 2: a lot of offensive firepower because they might not be
Speaker 2: able to, you know, really extend those leads. But given
Speaker 2: everything we've seen from the Patriots this year, it's just
Speaker 2: such a get right spot for them. I know they
Speaker 2: struggled against the Texans on the road. This is just
Speaker 2: it feels a little different now that it's at home
Speaker 2: and the Pats have had a tough schedule and they've
Speaker 2: gotten some of these games out of their way. So
Speaker 2: iilean PATRIOTSY. I know you might criticize me for calling
Speaker 2: it a bit of a homer pick, But what say
Speaker 2: you about your Jets?
Speaker 1: Ah, I don't really have a good lean on it.
Speaker 1: If it gets too over a touchdown, I will probably
Speaker 1: find the value with the Jets, and I think in
Speaker 1: a vacuum, if you take a step back, this strikes
Speaker 1: me as probably a spot where more quote unquote sharp
Speaker 1: betters are going to be on the Jets. I know
Speaker 1: the Patriots beat up on the Jets earlier in the year,
Speaker 1: but it's a little bit of a different team. I
Speaker 1: think the Jets, not that they're playing well or anything
Speaker 1: like that, but they're at least a little healthier here
Speaker 1: that get to come off a bye. The Patriots played
Speaker 1: a really tough overtime game. They're probably a little tired
Speaker 1: right now. And really the Patriots just they're not explosive.
Speaker 1: They don't have the horses. And again, they hung with
Speaker 1: the Cowboys absolutely as kind of I expected, and they
Speaker 1: find a way to hang with teams, you know, like
Speaker 1: the Bucks, where they're expected to get blown out, but
Speaker 1: they really haven't played that great against teams that they're
Speaker 1: expected to dominate. So it's probably a stay away for
Speaker 1: me here at seven. If it gets to over seven.
Speaker 1: I probably will take the Jets here coming off the buye,
Speaker 1: but I doubt i'd take the Patriot Like I'm just
Speaker 1: not interested in backing the Patriots team right here with
Speaker 1: anything like a big spread. And we talked, I mean
Speaker 1: you mentioned it. There are a lot of expreads this week.
Speaker 1: So if you like underdog betting, which you know probably
Speaker 1: the quote unquote sharp side is going to be taking
Speaker 1: a lot of the underdogs, this is your week. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure it's your week here with the Panthers though,
Speaker 1: visiting the Giants. The Panthers are laying three here. Total
Speaker 1: is forty three. A lot of low totals in these games,
Speaker 1: which again you mentioned it, this is not the most
Speaker 1: exciting week of football games. Actually, with so many teams
Speaker 1: on buy, a lot of the matchups are kind of disappointing.
Speaker 1: But look, the Panthers are coming in here. They somehow
Speaker 1: made a game of that against the Vikings, even though
Speaker 1: they look like they were about to get completely blown out.
Speaker 1: The Giants got demolished by the Rams. You know, felt
Speaker 1: kind of bad for them, frankly. They are dealing with
Speaker 1: offensive line injuries, they are dealing with injuries to their
Speaker 1: receiving corps, not sure who's going to be healthy here,
Speaker 1: Giants getting three at home with the total at forty three.
Speaker 1: What do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, I think the Giants is a little bit
Speaker 2: of a similar situation to the Browns, where there's just
Speaker 2: like so many injuries that we need to wait and
Speaker 2: see a little later in the week, who exactly is
Speaker 2: going to be playing, especially among their receivers, and if
Speaker 2: Sakwan Barkley is going to be back. But in general,
Speaker 2: this game and this game just comes down to two
Speaker 2: teams that one team I like what they're doing overall
Speaker 2: as a franchise, and one that I don't like backing
Speaker 2: or like trusting. The Panthers. They are coming off three
Speaker 2: straight losses and they've just they've just been doing a
Speaker 2: really lot of smart things the past few years. I
Speaker 2: think they've added a lot of defensive talent over their
Speaker 2: past three drafts. Brian Burns, Derek Brown, Jeremy Chin, and
Speaker 2: then J. C. Horn this year before he got hurt,
Speaker 2: he got he went down, they instantly traded for CJ. Henderson.
Speaker 2: They traded for Stefan Gilmore, and I think Gilmore has
Speaker 2: a chance to play in this one.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: Not saying that that might swing you know, the line
Speaker 2: anything more than like a you know, half a point
Speaker 2: or something like that, but it is just something notable,
Speaker 2: And in general, I do like what the Panthers do
Speaker 2: as a franchise, whereas the Giants, I just don't love
Speaker 2: backing Jason Garrett organizations or teams that have anything to
Speaker 2: do with Jason Garrett. I just don't trust them to
Speaker 2: make the optimal decision at times. So I'm going to
Speaker 2: go to the Panthers taking the small favorite here coming
Speaker 2: off the three straight losses and the Giants just dealing
Speaker 2: with everything that they're dealing with injury was.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in a total agreement on this one. So
Speaker 1: it's three is a consensus line over at betting bros
Speaker 1: dot com. It is three at the majority of books,
Speaker 1: but there are a couple of two and a half's
Speaker 1: out there. So if you can get it at five,
Speaker 1: bet at points, bet at a couple other places here
Speaker 1: that I'm looking at, I would hit that certainly at
Speaker 1: two and a half, but even at three, I agree.
Speaker 1: I mean, I you know the Panthers now, I mean
Speaker 1: you see what they look like when you know they
Speaker 1: have to face a little higher end competition, and they've
Speaker 1: got no Christian McCaffrey, and they've had injuries you mentioned Horn.
Speaker 1: Obviously they may be getting a little bit here of
Speaker 1: help coming in, but I still think that the disparity
Speaker 1: between these two teams, it's just it's too great at
Speaker 1: this point to you know, be thinking about backing the
Speaker 1: Giants at a field goal or less here if it
Speaker 1: moves beyond that, maybe because the Giants have a way
Speaker 1: of sort of surprising you not often as home, and
Speaker 1: you know about you know, Daniel Jones's record here at
Speaker 1: home when it comes to covering the spread, it is
Speaker 1: not great as much better on the road. You can
Speaker 1: write that off as narrative, but I think that there
Speaker 1: is actually something to it. And the crowd is pretty
Speaker 1: much abandoning them, so the home field advantage does not
Speaker 1: mean all that much. So I do lean the Panthers here.
Speaker 1: I'd hit it three. I'd probably hit it even if
Speaker 1: it gets over field goal at this point, but certainly
Speaker 1: it's two and a half at a couple of bucks,
Speaker 1: and I would run to do that if I could.
Speaker 1: This is a big one. Now. After this Monday night game,
Speaker 1: the Chiefs are visiting the Titans. The Chiefs are laying
Speaker 1: four and a half, and the total here is a
Speaker 1: whopping fifty six and a half. Big wins here for
Speaker 1: both these teams. I mean, the Chiefs kind of had
Speaker 1: a walk in the park against Washington, but they needed
Speaker 1: to get right game. They finally covered a spread, which
Speaker 1: rarely happens for them. The Titans come through here in
Speaker 1: a game on Monday Night football against the Bills. They
Speaker 1: suffer some injuries through it. It sounds you know, I
Speaker 1: don't know how serious h Leo Jones's hamstring is, but
Speaker 1: you know, I'd be surprised at this point if he
Speaker 1: suits up on Sunday and there are coming off a
Speaker 1: short week in a hard fought game. So what do
Speaker 1: you think here about the Chiefs visiting and a crazy
Speaker 1: total of fifty six and a half.
Speaker 2: It's funny. I almost wish I would feel a lot
Speaker 2: better about the Titans if they didn't just have that,
Speaker 2: you know, huge emotional, exciting win on Monday Night. You know,
Speaker 2: now it's going to be a short week for them too,
Speaker 2: just because of what we talked about early on a
Speaker 2: lot of times with betting, you know, the public has
Speaker 2: such short memories it's a lot about you know, fading
Speaker 2: teams coming off the big wins and you know, buying
Speaker 2: in on good teams that we know are good that
Speaker 2: might have had a disappointing week. So all that being said, though,
Speaker 2: then on the other side, we have this Chief situation
Speaker 2: where there's been a lot and I know they kind
Speaker 2: of got right a bit against Washington, although that game
Speaker 2: was close for a little But there's so much talk
Speaker 2: right now about the Chiefs struggling offense, and really, when
Speaker 2: you look down at it, though, it's just about turnovers.
Speaker 2: It's not that they're struggling to move the ball at all.
Speaker 2: They have nine turnovers within the opponent's forty yard line.
Speaker 2: It almost feels sometimes that they're just playing backyard football,
Speaker 2: that they're you know, not as focused as they maybe
Speaker 2: should be because they've been to the big game two
Speaker 2: years in a row now and they just you know,
Speaker 2: the regular season doesn't mean as much for them. But
Speaker 2: they're averaging an NFL high three point two points per drive,
Speaker 2: so they can move the ball. It's just about not
Speaker 2: turning it over. The Titans, meanwhile, we know what they
Speaker 2: want to do is established to run with Derrick Henry
Speaker 2: and the Chief's defense is so horrible. In their last
Speaker 2: game against Washington, Washington's O line graded out by PFF
Speaker 2: as the best O line of the week, and I think,
Speaker 2: you know a big part of that was playing against
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. So I think this is the classic case
Speaker 2: where you have the home dog. The Titan strength plays
Speaker 2: into the Chief's weakness. The public is usually going to
Speaker 2: be on the Chiefs. You just add it all up.
Speaker 2: And the Titans, even though they're coming off the big
Speaker 2: emotional win, and I weirdly don't love that. I still
Speaker 2: like the Titans in the spot. Everything else about my
Speaker 2: process points me in their direction.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just don't know. The Times are not a
Speaker 1: good football team, and I mean they're not a terrible
Speaker 1: football team or anything like that. I love the Times.
Speaker 1: I back them all the time, and I back them,
Speaker 1: you know, against the Bills here because I just think
Speaker 1: that their hole is greater than the sum of their parts.
Speaker 1: And probably Derrick Henry covers up a lot of ills.
Speaker 1: I mean, their secondary is terrible, and they again they
Speaker 1: have more injuries here after this game. They probably should
Speaker 1: make a trade, but that's something not here or there.
Speaker 1: I think I might use this as a teaser piece here.
Speaker 1: I think I could see this as a game where
Speaker 1: I pushed the Titans up six, get it over ten
Speaker 1: because again, the biggest thing with the Titan it's like
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry is not human and even off a short week,
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter his workloads, Like you can just run
Speaker 1: and run and run, and that is what they're going
Speaker 1: to try to do and control the clock and everything
Speaker 1: like that. Aj Brown thankfully looked healthy. No more food
Speaker 1: poisoning at the very least. So it is something where
Speaker 1: I like that I kind of lean the under a
Speaker 1: little bit. It's just the numbers so high too, Like
Speaker 1: I get that, it's you know, you know, the Chiefs
Speaker 1: can score on anybody and they can put up whatever
Speaker 1: you want. Obviously came in with the under in the
Speaker 1: last game. Both these teams can put up points. But
Speaker 1: I lean under a little bit. Fifty six and a
Speaker 1: half is just I mean, it's just it's silly, you know,
Speaker 1: at this point, and not that it's wrong, but it
Speaker 1: just seems silly. And I know public loves the over,
Speaker 1: so their lines are inflated a little bit. But I
Speaker 1: probably lean under. But it's not something where at four
Speaker 1: and a half again because it's an emotional spot, as
Speaker 1: you mentioned, and because they're coming off the short week
Speaker 1: and the Jefs are still pretty desperate for a win
Speaker 1: here so they can keep up with the division leaders.
Speaker 1: I'm just probably I'm only going to do it as
Speaker 1: a teaser piece. I'm not going to touch it here
Speaker 1: at that kind of dead number. What about the Eagles,
Speaker 1: who I back routinely for absolutely no reason, getting three
Speaker 1: here visiting Las Vegas with the Raiders a total at
Speaker 1: forty nine.
Speaker 2: So I didn't touch the Raiders Broncos game in Week six,
Speaker 2: and part of that was just, you know, coming off
Speaker 2: the whole Grooden situation, I didn't know how the Raiders
Speaker 2: would respond. I thought it was such a huge factor though,
Speaker 2: that it could go one way or the other. Either
Speaker 2: the team is demoralized and you know, they just lay
Speaker 2: an egg, or they play really fired up and inspired
Speaker 2: and they play really well. And that's what happened, is
Speaker 2: the latter situation. Now, the question is will that last?
Speaker 2: Was that a one week thing for them, or is
Speaker 2: this going to be, you know, the new Raiders and
Speaker 2: that we can buy back into them similar to how
Speaker 2: we were during the first three weeks of the season.
Speaker 2: One little note that I found studying this game is
Speaker 2: that Derek Carr has been great against zone defenses this
Speaker 2: year and that the Eagles play some of the least
Speaker 2: amount of man in the NFL, so that would be
Speaker 2: another reason to go in the direction of the Raiders. This, again,
Speaker 2: just the whole Vegas situation for me, is the biggest
Speaker 2: stay away in football right now. So I think a
Speaker 2: lot of it comes down to your feel on the Raider,
Speaker 2: and that's you know, I'm definitely you and I both
Speaker 2: know more analytically minded guys, so we don't typically bet
Speaker 2: off things like feel in that. But I think that
Speaker 2: this is what it comes down to, and that's why
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily trust my numbers on it. I'd picked
Speaker 2: the Raiders if I had to because about that note
Speaker 2: about Car against zone defenses, but I just cannot overlook
Speaker 2: the coaching factor and what that might do to this game.
Speaker 1: I don't want anything to do with this game as
Speaker 1: of right now. Now. It's funny because sometimes I say
Speaker 1: that on a Monday or Tuesday, and then I dive
Speaker 1: into it. I usually what just you guys know when
Speaker 1: you were listening, because I mean, we do our best
Speaker 1: bet Show on Thursday, and I generally I don't know
Speaker 1: what I'm like nine to three or something over the
Speaker 1: last four weeks because I take a lot of time.
Speaker 1: On Wednesday is when I really kind of dig into
Speaker 1: everything as best I can, and then on Thursday as well,
Speaker 1: depending on when we record before I kind of reach
Speaker 1: my final consensus on it. So sometimes I have a
Speaker 1: feeling early on in the week and then I get
Speaker 1: to a different point later on the week. But I
Speaker 1: can't imagine I'm going to want anything to do with
Speaker 1: this game again. The Raiders like fantastic a great win
Speaker 1: over the Broncos. They dominated that game. That's great, But
Speaker 1: is this now a letdown spot? And the Eagles, who
Speaker 1: I think are so much better than what we have
Speaker 1: seen from them, and so I always sort of lean
Speaker 1: towards wanting to back them, and I back them against
Speaker 1: the Bucks and that wound up working out, although it
Speaker 1: was pretty ugly. I just can't trust the coaching staff
Speaker 1: right now, Like I'm not impressed at all with what
Speaker 1: Nick Sirianni has done. And again, you know, I'm hopeful
Speaker 1: that the Eagles sort of understand that they need to
Speaker 1: run the ball now more you saw them have success
Speaker 1: here with Miles Sanders. That is where the Raiders are
Speaker 1: a little more vulnerable than through the air. But man,
Speaker 1: this is just a game I'm going to stay away from,
Speaker 1: which I don't mind it all. You can stay out
Speaker 1: a game, that is what I'm going to do here. Brandon,
Speaker 1: you said you really really don't like these giant spreads,
Speaker 1: and we've got several of them. So let's just start
Speaker 1: off with the Lions visiting the Rams fourteen and a
Speaker 1: half points. The total is fifty and a half. Are
Speaker 1: you willing to you know, take an underdog getting more
Speaker 1: than two touchdowns here with the Lions or what?
Speaker 2: So? Yeah, just looking at my show notes here, and
Speaker 2: we're moving for listeners who are following along, We've moved
Speaker 2: on to the four five, four to twenty five pm
Speaker 2: Eastern time games, and this is where all the huge
Speaker 2: spreads are. So a lot of the public, I know,
Speaker 2: will you know, do teasers and parlays around you know
Speaker 2: what time the games are at, so they'll do a
Speaker 2: one o'clock parlay, a four o'clock parlay. Because of that,
Speaker 2: with all the huge spreads in the late afternoon slay,
Speaker 2: I think we could see some really interesting teasers coming
Speaker 2: from all of these. Now, this isn't the one of
Speaker 2: the three that I want to take the underdog in.
Speaker 2: We'll get to that in a sec. But my note
Speaker 2: for this game is, you know, the Rams their thing
Speaker 2: with their offense right now, especially for fantasy. We know
Speaker 2: that they score a lot of points and that they
Speaker 2: have a great offense, but they don't, you know, run
Speaker 2: a million plays a game. They're not trying to generate
Speaker 2: offense by pure volume. It's just that they're playing so
Speaker 2: efficiently right now. I mean, it's one of those things
Speaker 2: that before the season, this is a prediction that I
Speaker 2: know I had a lot of people had, but it
Speaker 2: just worked out the way you expected. It's, oh, you
Speaker 2: take Sean McVay and you take away Jared Goff, and
Speaker 2: you're putting Matthew Stafford, and the offense is going to
Speaker 2: look a lot better. It's exactly what happened. We can
Speaker 2: all feel good about how that worked out. You know,
Speaker 2: that doesn't always happen with our preseason takes, especially when
Speaker 2: it comes to fantasy football. But so you add that in.
Speaker 2: This is the Jared Goff ball, by the way, he
Speaker 2: is going to play against the Rams. So there's that
Speaker 2: name revenge game.
Speaker 1: Man, let's go.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I would lead the Rams. This one is
Speaker 2: to stay away for me of the bunch, just because
Speaker 2: just because with the Rams, I don't know if the
Speaker 2: number of plays that they're gonna run is gonna lead
Speaker 2: them to, you know, extending that huge lead.
Speaker 1: I have no interest in this game. Like I again,
Speaker 1: when you get to spread this big, it's nuts. It's
Speaker 1: almost impossible to back the favorite. And what's funny, Brendan
Speaker 1: is that before this last game against the Bengals, sort
Speaker 1: of the whole narrative on the Lions. I like the
Speaker 1: Lions getting three and a half. I didn't bet it,
Speaker 1: but I liked it more against the Bengals because they
Speaker 1: fight right, they fight with Dan Campbell, they put up
Speaker 1: they keep things close or they'll come back at the
Speaker 1: end of the game. And then they got completely blown
Speaker 1: out against the Bengals. So the bottom line is just
Speaker 1: like there's such a disparity in talent level on these
Speaker 1: teams every which way. I mean, I think if you
Speaker 1: had to, the Rams could put up fifty points by
Speaker 1: themselves if they wanted to write, if they were like,
Speaker 1: you know what, we just got to keep our foot
Speaker 1: on the gas. We're gonna go crazy here. The lines
Speaker 1: would have, you know, difficulty putting up points. If I
Speaker 1: had to go one way, I'd probably go with a
Speaker 1: favorite over fourteen and a half. And again that's just
Speaker 1: the consensus line, and that is where it is at
Speaker 1: most books. You go to a Fox, bet it's fifteen.
Speaker 1: You go to Fandle or bet mgm, it's fifteen and
Speaker 1: a half. Like, it's just nuts for me at this point,
Speaker 1: But I don't care, Like I'll stay away and my
Speaker 1: guess is not getting down to fourteen. So I don't
Speaker 1: think you have to rush to bet this wherever you
Speaker 1: are because it really doesn't matter at this point. But yeah,
Speaker 1: this is just crazy, as is the next game, which
Speaker 1: is the Texans visiting the Cardinals. The Cardinals are laying
Speaker 1: a tidy seventeen points in this game. The total is
Speaker 1: forty seven, So, Tuma, what do you think about this one?
Speaker 2: Yeah? These are just getting insane. I think the biggest
Speaker 2: thing to note Tyron Taylor with his hamstring injury. It
Speaker 2: doesn't look like he'll be back to this one, which
Speaker 2: will mean another week of Davis Miles. When it comes
Speaker 2: to these really big spreads, I think the thing you
Speaker 2: want to look at is the defense, because we know
Speaker 2: for a team to you know, get out your big league,
Speaker 2: they probably need to have some sort of explosive offense
Speaker 2: or at least, you know, an effective offense, which we
Speaker 2: know that the Cardinals do with Kyler Murray. But I
Speaker 2: think the thing about Arizona is that over the past
Speaker 2: few years the defensive efficiency has improved ever since you know,
Speaker 2: Cliff Kingsbury got there, advanced Joseph as the defensive coordinator.
Speaker 2: What this means, though, is that they can hold leads.
Speaker 2: It's not like a chief situation where they can get
Speaker 2: out to these big leads and then the defense is
Speaker 2: just gonna let the other team right back in it,
Speaker 2: which allows way back to a cover. Is the Cardinals
Speaker 2: defense is surprisingly good enough to the point where I
Speaker 2: could see them holding down this lead again. This spread
Speaker 2: is we'll still get to my favorite one of it
Speaker 2: still isn't kind.
Speaker 1: Of Oh we haven't even gotten to your favorites by
Speaker 1: of the week.
Speaker 2: No, we haven't yet. Oh my goodness's going to be
Speaker 2: coming up next again. This is another situation where I
Speaker 2: lean Cardinals because I believe that that defense can hold
Speaker 2: onto the big lead, but man, it is terrifying to
Speaker 2: take a minus seventeen.
Speaker 1: I think I could do it Brendan like again here.
Speaker 1: I mean, if people have followed me, they know, like,
Speaker 1: I'm not often interested in taking these giant spreads on
Speaker 1: either side, just because it's so silly to do it,
Speaker 1: and I certainly don't want to take a favorite almost
Speaker 1: ever with these times. Again, I would take the Rams
Speaker 1: if I had to go one way and another, because
Speaker 1: the potential for back to our cover is just always there.
Speaker 1: Something flukey can happen, and you mentioned it right from
Speaker 1: the start. These are NFL teams, like they're all NFL teams.
Speaker 1: They're the you know, elite athletes of the elite athletes,
Speaker 1: So having these giant spreads is really something that's crazy
Speaker 1: to me. If I had to go somewhere here, I
Speaker 1: probably would take the Textan just because I think that
Speaker 1: they're probably able to put up enough of a fight offensively.
Speaker 1: It's not great. I don't expect to Hoteller to be back,
Speaker 1: but if you know, if the Cardinals take their foot
Speaker 1: off the gas a little bit here that they would
Speaker 1: you know, the Texans would be able to get it
Speaker 1: back to their cover. But it's just not something where
Speaker 1: I'm going I want to go anywhere near. I don't
Speaker 1: care where the line moves. But all I really care
Speaker 1: about is getting into your favorite spread. Please tell me
Speaker 1: that it involves the Bears visiting the Bucks and the
Speaker 1: Bear is getting thirteen points and or the total of
Speaker 1: forty seven and a half.
Speaker 2: It does. And I'm scared to say this on air
Speaker 2: to back Matt Maggie led team as my favorite spread
Speaker 2: of the week, But I do like the Bears in
Speaker 2: this situation. And it's again going off what I was
Speaker 2: just talking about with the Cardinals and being able to
Speaker 2: hold onto that big lead. That's not what this Bucks
Speaker 2: defense is able to do right now. They were having
Speaker 2: major issues in the secondary. They brought in Richard Sherman
Speaker 2: and now he's hurt as well. So right now the
Speaker 2: Bucks defense. You know, we all expect the Bucks to
Speaker 2: put up points here, obviously, but I don't necessarily. I
Speaker 2: don't feel like I can count on them to hold
Speaker 2: that lead. Now, if you told me that the Bears
Speaker 2: were going to come out and that they were going
Speaker 2: to run that Cowboys game, remember Week one, the Cowboys,
Speaker 2: they just didn't even bother running Zeke. They would just
Speaker 2: throw a throw throw, which, as we've learned, is the
Speaker 2: way to attack the Bucks. If you told me that
Speaker 2: they were going to lead into that strategy, I would
Speaker 2: love this bet so much. Even more, I oddly feel
Speaker 2: like I can't trust the Bears coaching staff right now
Speaker 2: to do that. And I can see, you know, them
Speaker 2: more so, wanting to take pressure off their offensive line,
Speaker 2: take pressure off their rookie quarterback by trying just to
Speaker 2: run into an absolute brick wall that's the Bucks d line.
Speaker 2: But I do think you know, I don't think you know,
Speaker 2: in sports gambling we should necessarily try to predict what
Speaker 2: the coaches will do in that situation. I think we
Speaker 2: should just look where the edges are and the Bears
Speaker 2: passing game, I think justin Fields is getting a little
Speaker 2: more comfortable. Betters might not want a bet on him
Speaker 2: because he hasn't erupted just yet, but this as good
Speaker 2: of a spot as long as the Bears a line
Speaker 2: can protect him for you know, at least a few
Speaker 2: seconds to get the ball out and expose that secondary.
Speaker 2: And you know, this is the exact type game where
Speaker 2: I think the odds for a backdoor cover are higher
Speaker 2: than in the either the rams or the cardinal spreads.
Speaker 1: You know, I actually like in this game. I like
Speaker 1: the over. That's where I would lean and I would
Speaker 1: bet it. Now, there is a forty seven, you know
Speaker 1: there it's between forty seven forty and forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half. So if you're out of forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half, you want to wait for forty seven, that's fine.
Speaker 1: But to me, I agree with a lot of what
Speaker 1: you're saying. But I think to me that says more
Speaker 1: of the over rather than the Bears being able to cover. Now,
Speaker 1: I know the Bears have a solid defense and everything
Speaker 1: like that, and they don't put up a ton of
Speaker 1: points or anything like that. I was I don't want
Speaker 1: to use the word impressed because I think that's too much,
Speaker 1: but I was less unimpressed with Justin Fields last week,
Speaker 1: you know again, and they he had a career high
Speaker 1: at least in pass attempts and completely and I think
Speaker 1: that you know, he has an arm. You can push
Speaker 1: the ball down the field a little bit. With Darnell
Speaker 1: Mooney in this game, so I think, you know, with
Speaker 1: him being a running quarterback, not that it did Jalen
Speaker 1: Hurts all that much, but that you know, they were
Speaker 1: able in the end to put up points here, this
Speaker 1: does strike me as a game where both teams are
Speaker 1: going to be able to put up points and the
Speaker 1: Bears are going to be able to put up more points.
Speaker 1: And I think most people expect here with this game.
Speaker 1: And I do think i'd lean the over here at
Speaker 1: forty seven and a half. Again, I'm not really taking
Speaker 1: I just don't want to go with the spread here
Speaker 1: at this point. It sounds like you like it at thirteen.
Speaker 1: What if it drops? Does it matter? Brendan? I mean,
Speaker 1: you know it's obviously under two touchdowns. Do you care
Speaker 1: about whether or not it's thirteen, twelve, twelve and a
Speaker 1: half anything like that? Are you just good with it
Speaker 1: basically at around that level?
Speaker 2: I do agree with you that the over is, you know,
Speaker 2: the other play in this game, that if that's your
Speaker 2: belief of how this game is going to go, that
Speaker 2: I'm fine with betting that. Yeah. I would. I would
Speaker 2: take the Bears if it went down to twelve and
Speaker 2: a half. I do think we want to be priced
Speaker 2: sensitive and not just take them at no matter what
Speaker 2: the number is. But with these three huge spreads in
Speaker 2: the four o'clock games, at least in the Eastern time zone.
Speaker 2: I do think that there's something about Vegas is building
Speaker 2: in a couple extra points towards the favorites. They just
Speaker 2: don't want to get, you know, crushed on the favorites covering.
Speaker 2: So I almost feel like we're almost with all these
Speaker 2: games getting you know, just tacking on you know, who
Speaker 2: knows how many one and a half, two, two and
Speaker 2: a half points to each of these spreads, because Vegas
Speaker 2: needs to somehow find a way to get the public
Speaker 2: to bet on these bad teams. And I think, you know,
Speaker 2: of the three of them, the Bears is definitely the
Speaker 2: one that I would want to attack the most.
Speaker 1: All right, here's one of my favorite games of the weekend,
Speaker 1: so I'm interested to hear what you think. It's Sunday
Speaker 1: Night Football. It is the Colts visiting the forty nine
Speaker 1: Ers off of by The Colts are getting three and
Speaker 1: a half points here. It's pretty much universal across every book.
Speaker 1: The total is forty five. You've obviously got the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers coming off the buy here. It sounds like
Speaker 1: it's going to be Jimmy Garoppolo. The Colts put up
Speaker 1: a big win over the Texans as they needed to
Speaker 1: do coming off that horrific loss against the Ravens, they
Speaker 1: have some injuries. Of course, Paris Campbell's probably going to
Speaker 1: miss this game here with his foot injury. You've also
Speaker 1: got Ty Hilton maybe going to miss the game with
Speaker 1: his quad injuries. So do you have any feelings on
Speaker 1: this one? The forty nine Ers laying three and a
Speaker 1: half total forty five.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I like the forty nine Ers, And I think
Speaker 2: Kyle Shanahan is just one of the most interesting coaches
Speaker 2: in football because I think when it comes to you know,
Speaker 2: general team building and maybe some in game management stuff,
Speaker 2: he's definitely extremely questionable and probably a bit overrated. But
Speaker 2: just as a pure play caller, I think, you know,
Speaker 2: he might be the best offense, the best quote unquote
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator in the league. And I almost think that
Speaker 2: would be you know, his perfect role moving forward. But
Speaker 2: so for him to come off a bye and have
Speaker 2: you know, just two weeks to prepare, you know, all
Speaker 2: the plays that he wants to draw up to attack
Speaker 2: this Colts defense, I am interested in that. And I
Speaker 2: think the other thing is, you know, the public might
Speaker 2: be willing to go in on the Colts a little
Speaker 2: bit more because of how well they played, I'll bite
Speaker 2: it coming against the Texans. One note is that Wentz
Speaker 2: earned the highest single game PFF grade of his career
Speaker 2: last week, which is really surprising considering, you know, some
Speaker 2: of the highs he had with the Eagles. But I
Speaker 2: think the thing with that game is is that it
Speaker 2: was perfect conditions. And I think that's where where we're
Speaker 2: at with Wentz. That if he has all the time
Speaker 2: in the world to throw the ball with good offensive
Speaker 2: line playing, he's playing against a bad defense, you know,
Speaker 2: he can look still pretty formidable. But you know, going
Speaker 2: on the road on Sunday night, coming off the Texans
Speaker 2: game into San Francisco, I don't think that these conditions
Speaker 2: will be nearly as good for him. And again, just
Speaker 2: you know Shanahan coming off of bye, I'm going to
Speaker 2: try to trust the play caller in him. In general
Speaker 2: for season long stuff, I do think, you know, I
Speaker 2: tend to shy away from a lot of forty nine
Speaker 2: ers things because of the questions I brought up. But
Speaker 2: you know, for this one game, I do like the
Speaker 2: forty nine ers here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'm on the other side. I get
Speaker 1: that it's Sunday night football, and I get that the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers are off the bye. Everything you said
Speaker 1: is true, I just don't I think there are two sides,
Speaker 1: So number one, I don't trust the forty nine ers
Speaker 1: offense right now, and I think it's going to be
Speaker 1: Jimmy Garoppolo, which I don't know if it's a good
Speaker 1: thing or a bad thing for whatever they have. Obviously,
Speaker 1: Lance was exciting but made a lot of mistakes. But
Speaker 1: they could have very easily beaten the Cardinals in that game.
Speaker 1: But they don't have George Kittle. I think that really
Speaker 1: hurts when you've got Jimmy Garoppolo.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: Again, Elijah Mitchell is fine, but the running back situation
Speaker 1: is not exactly. They don't have you know, Rehemoster back there,
Speaker 1: which does make a difference. Brandon a Yuk has been
Speaker 1: completely irrelevant this year. It's all Deebo Samuel. And conversely,
Speaker 1: I think the Colts are finding their footing a little bit,
Speaker 1: and I think, to be as fair as possible, a
Speaker 1: lot of it is just Carson Wentz being healthy now,
Speaker 1: and again, Wentz was horrific last year in Philadelphia, and
Speaker 1: I think almost all of that had to do with
Speaker 1: the fact that once that offensive line was terrible and
Speaker 1: he was pressured pretty much every time he dropped back,
Speaker 1: he got in his own head. He couldn't get out
Speaker 1: of it. The offensive line for the Colts, I mean,
Speaker 1: they've been banged up, they've had their issues, but they're
Speaker 1: you know, you know, five hundred percent better than what
Speaker 1: we saw last year from the Philadelphia offensive line. I
Speaker 1: think that's given him a little bit of confidence. And again,
Speaker 1: yeah it was against the Texans, but Brendan he played
Speaker 1: very well against the Ravens too on the road in
Speaker 1: that game. So you know, I think for me, I'm
Speaker 1: starting to more come to the table here a little
Speaker 1: bit with now Wentz getting healthier, with having more time
Speaker 1: in Frank Reich's system and everything like that. Jonathan Taylor
Speaker 1: is an absolute stud. They were using him correctly. This
Speaker 1: strikes me as a game that they're going to be
Speaker 1: able to keep close. And if I'm getting it over
Speaker 1: a field goal, which I think, by the way, it's
Speaker 1: probably going to stay. I don't I don't think this
Speaker 1: is going to be something where again a Colts team
Speaker 1: going on the road on a Sunday night football game
Speaker 1: to take on a very very strong forty nine ers.
Speaker 1: You know, defense at home, you know again on Sunday
Speaker 1: night football off of bye I don't see, you know,
Speaker 1: everybody coming out here to back the Colts. But that's
Speaker 1: actually where I come in at over a field goal here,
Speaker 1: So I'm.
Speaker 2: Gonna go there.
Speaker 1: We're gonna be on opposite side of the game, which
Speaker 1: is fine. Do you have any thoughts on the total?
Speaker 1: I kind of lean the under here. I don't. It
Speaker 1: doesn't strike me as a huge offensive explosion. I know,
Speaker 1: forty five, forty five and a half not a huge
Speaker 1: number or anything, but it still strikes me as something
Speaker 1: where I don't expect a ton of points to be
Speaker 1: scored here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if anything, I could see, I agree with you
Speaker 2: that the spread will probably stay where it is, and
Speaker 2: that if anything, the over under might go a little
Speaker 2: bit up on the over. So if you do want to,
Speaker 2: you know, bet the under, which is my lean, I
Speaker 2: would maybe wait till later in the week to see
Speaker 2: where it settles in at. And yeah, I do think
Speaker 2: it matters. What you said about that is a good
Speaker 2: point about Wentz getting healthier. You and I, you know,
Speaker 2: we came up through the Fantasy Pros news desk, so
Speaker 2: we're always monitoring the you know day to day practice reports,
Speaker 2: if a player is limited or full and all of that.
Speaker 2: And you know Wentz early in the year he was playing,
Speaker 2: but he was only getting in limited practices and now
Speaker 2: he's been the past two weeks, he's been getting in
Speaker 2: full practices, So there is legitimacy to the saying that
Speaker 2: Wentz is getting healthier.
Speaker 1: And again you just watch him, you know what's going on.
Speaker 1: And the fact that he played in Week one mind
Speaker 1: boggling because again again that five to twelve week timetable.
Speaker 1: They really pushed them. And to be fair, their backup
Speaker 1: quarterback situation is one of the worst in the league.
Speaker 1: So I guess I get it in that sense. But
Speaker 1: now that he's getting healthier again, regardless of whether or
Speaker 1: not to Y Hilton can play. The fact that Michael
Speaker 1: Pittman Junior is there, their scheme opens up everything. And
Speaker 1: again Jonathan Taylor and their defenses is fine. You know,
Speaker 1: it's not quite as strong as it was. Their secondary
Speaker 1: has been really banged up all year, but I don't
Speaker 1: think that matters that much against the forty nine ers. Again,
Speaker 1: great coaching staff, they've had an extra week to prepare.
Speaker 1: That's a great thing for them, but I still lean
Speaker 1: towards the Colts at overfield goal. Last game here, Monday
Speaker 1: night football. You know, you go back a year, Brandon,
Speaker 1: and you go back two years, this game would be
Speaker 1: the most exciting game history man kind. Right now, it's
Speaker 1: very much a all right, it's Monday Night football, so
Speaker 1: I'll watch it. The Saints are visiting the Seahawks. The
Speaker 1: Saints right now are laying five points. The total is
Speaker 1: forty three and a half. Man, again, you go back
Speaker 1: a year or two, the total in this game is
Speaker 1: like fifty five and a half at this point. But
Speaker 1: what do you think here, Tuma? You know you've got
Speaker 1: I'm sure Geno Smith again. You know, you know they're
Speaker 1: kicking the tires on the quarterbacks. But I'm sure it's
Speaker 1: going to be Gino Smith here again for the Seahawks.
Speaker 1: What do you think, man?
Speaker 2: Do you have this up? Did this move already a
Speaker 2: point or two in the direction of the States? I
Speaker 2: think it might have opened at three and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, there are some books that are still
Speaker 1: out there at four and a half at this point,
Speaker 1: but it's the consensus is five. When I'm looking through
Speaker 1: all the books, almost everyone is at five There is
Speaker 1: a five and a half out there at FanDuel, there's
Speaker 1: a four and a half at bet MGM. So it's
Speaker 1: all over the place. But yeah, it moves here obviously,
Speaker 1: you know from what we saw on Sunday night.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the more the higher it gets, the more scared
Speaker 2: I get, because that came in prepared to, you know,
Speaker 2: really talk up the Saints in this spot. I think
Speaker 2: the Geno Smith factor all the you know, maybe it's
Speaker 2: just you know, the crowd that I follow and interact
Speaker 2: with on Twitter, but it feels like a lot of
Speaker 2: people really want Geno Smith to do well, and they're
Speaker 2: rooting for Gino Smith and he just already had a
Speaker 2: prime time game and he helped you know betters who
Speaker 2: might have you know, wanted to bet on him cover.
Speaker 2: And now there's another chance, you know where it's you know,
Speaker 2: an Island game and people can come in and say, oh,
Speaker 2: I want to bet on Geno Smith. You know he
Speaker 2: did well for me last week. And you know, the
Speaker 2: Seahawks are at home and everything too, But man, I
Speaker 2: do kind of want to fade Gino at this spot.
Speaker 2: I know that's nothing crazy to say for when it
Speaker 2: comes to you know, sports gambling people who were betting
Speaker 2: against Geno, you know, five eight years ago when he
Speaker 2: was a starter for your favorite team, the Jets. But
Speaker 2: I just think, you know, the Saints again coming off
Speaker 2: of buy I don't want to put too much weight
Speaker 2: into that with all these games, but it is a
Speaker 2: little bit of a factor. I also think that there's
Speaker 2: now tape out there of what Seattle wants to do
Speaker 2: with Gino. I mean, they didn't change things up too
Speaker 2: much as to what they did with Russell Wilson, and
Speaker 2: you know, week to week, Pete Carroll isn't the type
Speaker 2: where he's going to overhaul the game plan. You know.
Speaker 2: The Seahawks kind of are what they are and they
Speaker 2: try to go out and match teams and they often
Speaker 2: do well. But I just you know, again coming off
Speaker 2: the high of Gino, I would you know, like it
Speaker 2: a lot more. The closer down you can get to,
Speaker 2: you know, whatever it is, four three and a half,
Speaker 2: maybe we'll see where the line goes. But so as
Speaker 2: of right now, this is one I definitely wait on
Speaker 2: to see where it settles. I want to be on
Speaker 2: the Saints, but I also again want to be price
Speaker 2: sensitive and I don't want to be taken, you know,
Speaker 2: minus five and a half on the road for on
Speaker 2: the other side of the ball. Let's be honest, I'm
Speaker 2: not sure we can fully trust in Jameis Winston either.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is that I make the Princess Bride analogy
Speaker 1: a lot. I clearly cannot choose the wine in front
Speaker 1: of me, and I clearly cannot choose the wine in
Speaker 1: front of you, which is something you probably don't get
Speaker 1: because you're ten years old. But regardless, I don't know
Speaker 1: what to do with this one here as I look
Speaker 1: at it. It's just something where Look, the Seahawks, they
Speaker 1: played better than expected, I think, you know, even Pittsburgh here,
Speaker 1: you know, against the Steelers, they put up a fight.
Speaker 1: There were moments for Gino, you know, before he eventually
Speaker 1: blew it. But they're going to be tired here again.
Speaker 1: I mean, they get the extra day, so even though
Speaker 1: they played Sunday night. You've got the Saints coming off
Speaker 1: a bye. The Seahawks, you know, they want to run
Speaker 1: the ball, but they it's unclear whether or not Alex
Speaker 1: Collins is even going to be healthy for this game here.
Speaker 1: Coming into the game, they just don't really have the horses.
Speaker 1: The Saints defense is very solid, but the dead number
Speaker 1: of five, it's just not a game I really want
Speaker 1: to go near, you know. I And again you think
Speaker 1: about it, Maybe it's a teaser piece. Maybe tease it
Speaker 1: up to eleven, you get it above ten, But even then,
Speaker 1: I just don't. You know, the Seahawks are well coached,
Speaker 1: but you know, the Saints at any given moment, even
Speaker 1: with James Winston out there, you know, can put up
Speaker 1: you know, a thirty spot if everything breaks right for them.
Speaker 1: They're not gonna have Michael Thomas back or anything like that,
Speaker 1: but I'm not sure it matters when you get them
Speaker 1: off buy here. So this is this is a really
Speaker 1: gross slate of games, Brendan, Like this is I'm sorry
Speaker 1: that we had you on for what amounts to you know,
Speaker 1: a slate that probably nobody really wants to wants to
Speaker 1: bet at this point. But your favorite bet, Brendan, as
Speaker 1: you look at this weekend, I mean we talked about
Speaker 1: a little bit. Is it the Bears getting thirteen or
Speaker 1: is that just your favorite of the big spreads.
Speaker 2: That's definitely my favorite going in right now. Yeah, I
Speaker 2: was gonna say, I appreciate you having me on on
Speaker 2: the grossest slates.
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's the only way I get on. That's it.
Speaker 2: But part of part of that is, like like we
Speaker 2: said up top, you know, the six teams on buy,
Speaker 2: a lot of the good teams are on by So
Speaker 2: for me just looking as the overall slate as the
Speaker 2: as a whole, you know, Washington is still the Washington
Speaker 2: defense is still just a unit I really want to
Speaker 2: attack and I just really trust you know, Anne Rodgers
Speaker 2: and Matte Lafour what to do in that spot. And
Speaker 2: then on the other side, it is you know, for
Speaker 2: an underdog pick, it would be the Bears getting plus
Speaker 2: their team. I just I really think when it comes
Speaker 2: to those big spreads that the thing that you want
Speaker 2: to look at is the favorites defense and whether or
Speaker 2: not we can trust them to protect those big leads
Speaker 2: and give us insurance against you know, backdoor covers.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, whenever you're listening to this, I do
Speaker 1: like the Broncos getting three and a half, which I
Speaker 1: would like that again overfield goal for sure. I lean
Speaker 1: the Panthers getting three against the Giants as well visiting
Speaker 1: New Jersey technically, which I'm there. I like the Cults
Speaker 1: getting three and a half. I mean, maybe I'll feel
Speaker 1: differently about this once I dig into them, once I
Speaker 1: look a little more into the trends and everything like that.
Speaker 1: But I feel like the Colts are, you know, something
Speaker 1: where they could have let even against the Texans, they
Speaker 1: could have let that Monday night completely derail their season.
Speaker 1: They didn't. They played well, and they did exactly what
Speaker 1: they needed to do, and I could see them coming
Speaker 1: out here and putting up a big effort. So that's
Speaker 1: why Lean, Brendan, thank you for doing I talk to
Speaker 1: every day anyway, Brendan, so I appreciate it you you know,
Speaker 1: doing it on a podcast as well. Remind everybody where
Speaker 1: they can find you and more of your work.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm on Twitter at too much too. Might do
Speaker 2: a lot of fantasy writing for Fantasypros dot com. You
Speaker 2: know a lot of base we're in the offseason right now,
Speaker 2: but also you know several NFL articles a week, a
Speaker 2: lot of the expert notes that you read when you
Speaker 2: click on a player on Fantasy Pros and you go
Speaker 2: to that little note section. You can find some of
Speaker 2: my rating on that as well. Dan, this was a
Speaker 2: lot of fun. I appreciate it.
Speaker 1: It was, and I will say for baseball. By the way,
Speaker 1: if you're listening to this, you're probably just a gambler,
Speaker 1: sports gambler generally, probably not limited to just football. There
Speaker 1: was a lot of MVP betting talk that we had
Speaker 1: on the fans Bro side of our football podcast for baseball,
Speaker 1: which again we do a lot of. And so if
Speaker 1: you listened, certainly to Joe who hosted one of the shows,
Speaker 1: you probably got in on Sho Hao Tani very early.
Speaker 1: You also got in on Bryce Harper as an MVP
Speaker 1: very early when it was plus three thousand, which right
Speaker 1: now looks like the favorite. So it's a good listen
Speaker 1: for that as well as just if you do happen
Speaker 1: to play fantasy. All right, guys, we're going to be
Speaker 1: back as usual on Thursday with our best bets of
Speaker 1: the weekend, where we have been very very You're hot
Speaker 1: right now, so that is great, So make sure you're
Speaker 1: subscribed here again. Go to our YouTube channel a YouTube
Speaker 1: dot com slash Betting Pros to make sure you are
Speaker 1: subscribed there as well, and I will talk to you
Speaker 1: again on Thursday.