Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa Brownwitz Jay Ley, we bring
Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and
Speaker 1: international relations. To find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, Suncloud,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com and of course on the Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 1: Chisel and Marble at Princeton a few years ago, and
Speaker 1: Joan Bavan joins us today. What was it like to
Speaker 1: go in front of your PhD advisors at Princeton? Who
Speaker 1: were those guys? Uh? Ben Bernankee, Mike, Michael Woodford, Mark Watson,
Speaker 1: Michael Watt Watson was my man advisor. Um, that was
Speaker 1: it was. It was a great momentum. I would not
Speaker 1: have remembered the title if you have not said it,
Speaker 1: so thanks for bringing that up. No, it's very very cool.
Speaker 1: I mean, do you have Bernankey moving one way on
Speaker 1: economics and Michael Woodford with a math maddox on the
Speaker 1: other side. Must have been intimidating. Is that kind of
Speaker 1: brain power gonna show itself at Jackson Hole this year?
Speaker 1: Are we gonna dovetail the mathematics of Woodford with the
Speaker 1: more holistic economics of Bernanke at Jackson Hole Young. Uh. Interesting,
Speaker 1: to be honest, we're we're we're kind of wondering what
Speaker 1: will really happen there. UM. Our view is that there's
Speaker 1: maybe too much hope that this is gonna be a
Speaker 1: policy signaling exercise, Uh, especially around the paper. So I
Speaker 1: think this might be a disappointment and uh, maybe returning
Speaker 1: more to hardcore kind of like academic input to policy making,
Speaker 1: like we've that used to be the case maybe with
Speaker 1: a yet this last year with the framework review so on.
Speaker 1: Based on your tenure at the Bank of Canada, based
Speaker 1: on your experience with central bankers and having them as colleagues,
Speaker 1: do you think that they're concerned by how much control
Speaker 1: they have are perceived control by markets over not only
Speaker 1: benchmark rates, but just risk appetite in general. Um concerned.
Speaker 1: I'm I'm thinking they're pretty aware of you know, central
Speaker 1: central making has been in the front stage for since
Speaker 1: two thousand eight. Uh, we only came in town, So
Speaker 1: I think they've gotten used to the attention and the
Speaker 1: center role that they're playing. I think this is evolving though,
Speaker 1: UM and uh in our view, like fiscal policies is
Speaker 1: now taking the baton from from them will be more
Speaker 1: so going forward. So I think we're kind of a
Speaker 1: juncture where things are changing a bit. But I think
Speaker 1: their concern is probably more about, like how they communicate
Speaker 1: around the current situation. I think the potential for mistake
Speaker 1: is pretty high. We've seen it. I think we're losing
Speaker 1: a bit of a long term anchor on on ten
Speaker 1: year yields, for instance, and I think this is largely
Speaker 1: due to on certainly around the Central Bank. You know,
Speaker 1: out looking, we're losing a long term anchor on a
Speaker 1: ten year yields. Elaborate, please, what does that mean to you?
Speaker 1: I think when you look at the price movement from
Speaker 1: the last two months, right we went from pricing and
Speaker 1: nation fears uh with tenuiels that were on the way
Speaker 1: up to what we see now is a complete disconnect
Speaker 1: between the macro outlook and you know the woman we've
Speaker 1: seen in yields um you know. Various explanations for that,
Speaker 1: technical and so on, but I think one of them is,
Speaker 1: you know, a big debate around what the Central ban
Speaker 1: is actually doing. Markets trying to digest that your framework,
Speaker 1: and I think that's part of the story there. John.
Speaker 1: I look at the entire economics right now in the
Speaker 1: word that we keep talking about here between John and
Speaker 1: Lisa and me, and we make jokes about it, but
Speaker 1: it's really serious microeconomic foundations. Which is the ambiguity of
Speaker 1: what's going to happen given a given thrust in inflation.
Speaker 1: What's the key ambiguity of which way the financial system
Speaker 1: cuts given a higher inflation? What's the key mystery? Well,
Speaker 1: I think, I think Tom, this is exactly Uh. You know,
Speaker 1: what I think is very unusual about the current situation
Speaker 1: is that the range of outcome that we are templating collectively,
Speaker 1: bit on inflation, bit on what the central nights will
Speaker 1: be doing, even on growth, what is it a restart?
Speaker 1: Is it at the beginning of a longer kind of
Speaker 1: you know, expansion. This is a pretty wide range of
Speaker 1: of outcome, and I think the markets in those environments
Speaker 1: tend to interpret the news flow and then go from
Speaker 1: one kind of potential outcome to the other. Uh. And
Speaker 1: and these are more like binary kind of outcome, and
Speaker 1: that creates like the volatility what we're saying, I think,
Speaker 1: I think what where there's consensus is that this is
Speaker 1: a pretty constructive environment for RISCO we're seeing that inequities.
Speaker 1: Of course, we're pro risk. We're to be prosc at
Speaker 1: the stage, so that is kind of consensus. But from
Speaker 1: here on the unusually wide range, and I think we're
Speaker 1: gonna we're facing binary outcomes. John Pharaoh has led our
Speaker 1: discussion here of stock and flow, and I would suggest
Speaker 1: when we look at the death, the deficit is a
Speaker 1: static object. It's a bathtub. That's the size of an
Speaker 1: Olympic pool should be Should we be worried about the
Speaker 1: stocks the size of the pool that's built up of
Speaker 1: these things we worry about. Yeah, I think I think
Speaker 1: there's been uh we we left the stock a bit
Speaker 1: out of the picture. But like if you if you
Speaker 1: just take a step back and look since COVID, uh,
Speaker 1: the amount of spending that has been like put on
Speaker 1: the table, including with the infrastructure build this week and
Speaker 1: the reconciliation, we're gonna see no going forward. We're talking
Speaker 1: about like amounting a total of GDP and new spending
Speaker 1: that you know we didn't we didn't have pre COVID.
Speaker 1: That's a large amount. That's your stock point. Um, we
Speaker 1: are comfortable or you know, pretty relaxed about this, given
Speaker 1: the rate they're saying, but I think we're much more
Speaker 1: now subject and uh, and we're facing a fragile environment
Speaker 1: where if there are adjustment in rates, it's going to
Speaker 1: be a lot more disruptive with the stock much larger now, Jean,
Speaker 1: before we let you go, Dean Courne on the show
Speaker 1: earlier said that the inflation is contained is the same
Speaker 1: as sub our prime is contained of today. That basically, Uh,
Speaker 1: this is a faith based assertion that has yet to
Speaker 1: be proven, and it really goes to your call about
Speaker 1: the question marks underpinning where treasure yields are today. Do
Speaker 1: you agree that inflation is controlled is the same kind
Speaker 1: of view as subprime is contained of two thousand seven
Speaker 1: two thousand six. Yeah, I think I think it's even
Speaker 1: more than subprime because inflation is in my view and
Speaker 1: our view of purely self fulfilling phenomenal ultimately, so it's
Speaker 1: what we what we believe or markets believe it to be.
Speaker 1: UM and I think we're seeing that the elements for
Speaker 1: inflation to to break out to our level, we think
Speaker 1: it's going to be contained. Ultimately that's still like kind
Speaker 1: of our baseline, but that's only given. That's far from
Speaker 1: a given. An episode in the past where inflation got
Speaker 1: out of end. I mean, we're not expected, you know,
Speaker 1: before they happen. So I think that's a that's a
Speaker 1: fair I would I would, I would have sympathy for
Speaker 1: that point. And I think this is under appreciated as
Speaker 1: a risk. Jean bo Then, thank you so much, greatly,
Speaker 1: greatly appreciated this morning with black Rock. They're really really
Speaker 1: informed discussion their folks and some of the dynamics that
Speaker 1: we see right now. I think cut in a macro
Speaker 1: drisk at five is founder and CEO Dean. The complacency,
Speaker 1: the complacency of us to start a program like we
Speaker 1: have done start this hour like we just have look
Speaker 1: through all time highs forty seven of them today on
Speaker 1: the SMP five hundred, and it just seems to me
Speaker 1: that we're numb when numb to any incoming information that
Speaker 1: tells you otherwise about this bullish story you've creates it.
Speaker 1: What does that's how you do well? You know? I
Speaker 1: like the Field of Dreams exercise. I think it's interesting
Speaker 1: to take a movie and kind of make it into
Speaker 1: real life. But I also in terms of markets, I
Speaker 1: like taking real events and looking back on him and
Speaker 1: it is ten years to the week that the I
Speaker 1: would call it the joint crisis between the Eurozone sovereign
Speaker 1: episode of and the US dead ceiling showdown occurred. And
Speaker 1: for the week of this week ten years ago, realized
Speaker 1: volatility in the s P was nine. This week realized
Speaker 1: volatility and SMP is three point five cent. So it
Speaker 1: just goes to show you the extent to which markets
Speaker 1: can go from extremely high levels of alatility to as
Speaker 1: you're discussing something that really is a snooze fest. And
Speaker 1: I think the important part about the snooze fest is
Speaker 1: it really dulls our imagination. It it catches us, it
Speaker 1: causes us to be caught off guard. And of course
Speaker 1: the lynchpin of it all, I know you host your
Speaker 1: show the really Yield. There's not much that up um,
Speaker 1: so you know everything is linked to a minus one
Speaker 1: point one too more negative tenure yield, everything, equity valuations,
Speaker 1: low levels of volatility, and I just I'm very concerned
Speaker 1: that we're trusting the central banks in a way that
Speaker 1: you know, history has proven unkind to that level of trust.
Speaker 1: I go back to, for example, the early two thousand
Speaker 1: seven period, and to me, uh, sub prime is contained
Speaker 1: is the inflation is transitory. Of these epic misreads by
Speaker 1: central bankers shouldn't be forgotten. They can cause ultimately cause
Speaker 1: a lot of market harm. H Dana, I want to
Speaker 1: know how VIX sets here. We had a VIX of
Speaker 1: twenty two, twenty one whatever back in mid July, and
Speaker 1: now down we go under sixteen at today. Tell me
Speaker 1: what the Greek letters say right now, the co movements
Speaker 1: of the markets say about the umph to get the
Speaker 1: VIX down to a true bullmarket fourteen or dare I
Speaker 1: say thirteen? Well, as as I as I mentioned, you know,
Speaker 1: realized volatility around three and a half percent. It's almost
Speaker 1: as if the SP five is a PEG's currency, right,
Speaker 1: and options on a peg are really not worth very much.
Speaker 1: And so the gravitational pull as you call it and
Speaker 1: in the VIX is really contingent on not just this
Speaker 1: low level of volatility realized volatility, but it's it's nearly
Speaker 1: ground to a screeching halt. So you know, I had
Speaker 1: the VIX floorida around seventeen. Obviously we've breached that. And
Speaker 1: what causes you to breach it is when you get
Speaker 1: such shockingly low levels of movement, it's it's the quiet,
Speaker 1: and uh, A lot of folks have forecasted that there
Speaker 1: would be some fireworks in August that that has been
Speaker 1: with some regularity a month where the summer vacation got disrupted.
Speaker 1: It doesn't look like, at least for now, that that's
Speaker 1: going to happen right now. So, UM, you know, I
Speaker 1: think when I step back, I just try to look
Speaker 1: at risk reward, and you're right. The equity markets going up,
Speaker 1: it's not going up a ton, uh, And so you
Speaker 1: know what I worry about is this degree of complacency. Uh.
Speaker 1: That again, it's it's grounded in the mispricing of nominal
Speaker 1: yields versus the rate of inflation. We're we're really hoping
Speaker 1: that uh, inflation comes down. It's just very difficult to know.
Speaker 1: And the damage that could result should did not prove
Speaker 1: transitory and bond yields react ultimately and kind of push
Speaker 1: higher on a nominal level. Dingnitating us. I just want
Speaker 1: to make you, get you to make the point. You
Speaker 1: said something that I will not let pass. You said
Speaker 1: that inflation in transitory is transitory, is the new subprime
Speaker 1: is contained. That's quite a cool. So let's get the
Speaker 1: conviction call in this market, not the ips, the butts
Speaker 1: on the one hand, On the other, what's the coal.
Speaker 1: I think the call is that the the the valuation
Speaker 1: argument that's being made in equities is contingent on something
Speaker 1: that we just have no idea around. And the data
Speaker 1: tells us, at least so far, that nominal yields are
Speaker 1: so far below the rate of inflation that the FED
Speaker 1: could be in a very very difficult spot if we
Speaker 1: go back and look at all the risk offs that
Speaker 1: that we've that we've had, and you know, there have
Speaker 1: been some doozies along the way. The FED has always
Speaker 1: been there to massage the market and to to lift
Speaker 1: it higher for for a couple of reasons. One is
Speaker 1: that market risk and economic risk typically occur at the
Speaker 1: same time, right the they typically run into trouble at
Speaker 1: the same time, and so the FED, in its remit
Speaker 1: to revive the economy, ultimately has these policies with with
Speaker 1: work which work more directly on asset prices. But the
Speaker 1: bigger point, John, is that the feds air cover is
Speaker 1: always that the rate of inflation, the rate of inflation
Speaker 1: is below targets, so it's allowed to do much. We're
Speaker 1: in a much different circumstance. Now, the rate of inflation
Speaker 1: is well well well above target. So if we do
Speaker 1: run into a risk off, we've got to be asking
Speaker 1: ourselves the question, what's the FED going to do? Just
Speaker 1: giving that inflation so far far above target already to day,
Speaker 1: so so important and a place we got you on
Speaker 1: a spot on that question, then count it there a
Speaker 1: macro risk Adfinience is the founder and CEO Tom that
Speaker 1: line there, Inflation is transitory? Is the new subprime is contained?
Speaker 1: That's something to take an out. Tell Well, let's get
Speaker 1: from New York to why I'm bringing Joe my work
Speaker 1: the chief economist ACTS or Investment Management. Joe. Let's start
Speaker 1: the August twenty because no one's really interested in August
Speaker 1: this morning, it saint was. Let's start in August twenty six.
Speaker 1: Jackson Hall, what are you looking for from the FED
Speaker 1: chairmen at that gathering? I'd be I'd be surprised if
Speaker 1: we had a sort of formal announcement from from them
Speaker 1: or from him actually in Jackson Hall, because the last
Speaker 1: few years, quite a few years actually, the FED is
Speaker 1: try to tone down the importance of Jackson Hall in
Speaker 1: terms when it comes to to actual policy announcements. It's
Speaker 1: a place where you debate, it's a place where you
Speaker 1: lay the ground for your future announcements, but you you
Speaker 1: don't use it really to be too precise about what
Speaker 1: you want to do. So my guesses starts we'll have
Speaker 1: a pretty consensual discussion from everybody from the FED making
Speaker 1: it clear that hey, you know, we may still have
Speaker 1: some sort of differences on the exact timing of when
Speaker 1: we taper, but tapering we will and this is this
Speaker 1: is for the coming months. Probed As a Frenchman, I
Speaker 1: have trouble putting a nest after th um. So yeah, consensual.
Speaker 1: Not a lot of conversations of dissenters, I would say,
Speaker 1: because they're all moving into in direction if you, if
Speaker 1: you really speaks, so probably not much suspense JO define
Speaker 1: data dependency for us in the theme as Jackson Hall
Speaker 1: is going to be waiting and waiting and waiting to
Speaker 1: find this new data dependency of this new FED. Definitely,
Speaker 1: And I don't think that they can answer any precise
Speaker 1: question at this at this stage because on tapering, okay,
Speaker 1: it's a matter of months on when they would fully
Speaker 1: normalize military policy, i e. When they would actually stop
Speaker 1: moving great they've given themselves a lot of leeway. And
Speaker 1: this is where I think they will will have to
Speaker 1: learn by by by watching them and and and follow
Speaker 1: follow their their stride because um before the pandemic struck, honestly,
Speaker 1: there was no consensus on where uh the natural uh
Speaker 1: unclun rate was in the US. There was no agreement
Speaker 1: on where the equilibrium interest rate was in the US.
Speaker 1: It's become even more unclear in this in this crisis. UM,
Speaker 1: So I think they will be extremely progetic. And there's
Speaker 1: again not much they can say at this stage on
Speaker 1: what they intend to do in the next two or
Speaker 1: three years. It's sort of shocking to me. We get
Speaker 1: equity analysts after equity analysts saying, by this rally, basically
Speaker 1: it's going to keep going up, It's going to go
Speaker 1: up more than we had previously expected. We have pretty
Speaker 1: incredibly good data. We're coming out of the labor market,
Speaker 1: coming out of inflation. Where you know, if you want
Speaker 1: to see inflation, if you start to see recovery signs
Speaker 1: all over the place. Why are economists not changing their
Speaker 1: projections after the past two weeks. Why is this transitory?
Speaker 1: Why does this fit into everybody's narrative on the economic side.
Speaker 1: If it's not on the equity analysts side, I think,
Speaker 1: well it come. Mists usually try to to to focus
Speaker 1: on on one of the fundamentals are telling us, and
Speaker 1: probably try to take on board what the impact of
Speaker 1: the beginning of the normalization of manatory policy will mean.
Speaker 1: At the moment. Yes, you're right, the fundamentals are telling
Speaker 1: great story. Earnings are doing well, the economies reopening a
Speaker 1: fast clip. We were very worried about the delta variant,
Speaker 1: but it seems that, you know, the capacity of the
Speaker 1: Committe to deal with it is higher than we than
Speaker 1: we thought, higher than we feared. Still, there's an elephant
Speaker 1: in the room. The elephant in the room is how
Speaker 1: is the market going to behave once we start losing
Speaker 1: this massive constant purchases of of a verris cree asset
Speaker 1: and not so risk free assets from from central banks.
Speaker 1: It's not for immediate consumption in Europe, which may explain
Speaker 1: why the equity market is doing even better in your
Speaker 1: right now, But in the US it's a matter of months.
Speaker 1: So I guess most economists are trying to trying to
Speaker 1: to to work the models and start to think, hey,
Speaker 1: you know, once I take out from the equation those
Speaker 1: billions of dollars of purchases, where should the market be?
Speaker 1: And you know, this is probably what makes us a
Speaker 1: bit grumpy, but that probably comes with the trade. You know,
Speaker 1: how do you gauge that? Is that just a guess?
Speaker 1: How do you know how the market will respond? What
Speaker 1: do you look for? Well, you can try actually to
Speaker 1: come up with with correct models, which which makes sense
Speaker 1: because we've had actually years and years now of experience
Speaker 1: of an increase in the size of central banks balance sheet.
Speaker 1: We've had years of experience with with que so you
Speaker 1: can actually it's not that complicated. You can actually UH
Speaker 1: estimate the impact of a change in the balance sheet
Speaker 1: of the central bank on equity prices. That's not that's
Speaker 1: not rocket science. The question though, is that, um, what
Speaker 1: we what is really complicated to UH to estimate is
Speaker 1: the psychological impact fact that even if the central bank
Speaker 1: stopped buying, and then the model is going to tell you, hey,
Speaker 1: you know that means expersent less on the trajectory for
Speaker 1: for risky assets. The problem is that now the market
Speaker 1: knows that if something goes wrong, central banks are going
Speaker 1: to act probably faster and in a bigger way than before.
Speaker 1: So that provides a sort of insurance, sort of flooring
Speaker 1: to the market. And that's the pits that is really
Speaker 1: really hard to to to estinate. But the direct impact,
Speaker 1: yes you can and there are lots of models which
Speaker 1: which do that. The conditioning jail, we've got to leave
Speaker 1: it there. Really great fan of thoughts. You're my work
Speaker 1: there Banks for Investment Management, the chief economists Danny tells it.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us today. And the
Speaker 1: state of retail. What's the why behind you're you're in
Speaker 1: Joe Felban's enthusiasm. What's the om that's getting retailed to
Speaker 1: the end of the year. Thank you so much time
Speaker 1: for having me. I think them that's getting retail to
Speaker 1: the end of the year. I think number one, it's
Speaker 1: the consumer, the dollars that they have and the pent
Speaker 1: up demand that they have for gathering and hopefully being
Speaker 1: together in a safe way if if this variant can
Speaker 1: be controlled. I think the other thing is the innovation
Speaker 1: that companies have more new product innovation, and not just
Speaker 1: in product, but think about also in transaction transformation, whether
Speaker 1: it's curbside, whether it's digital, the convenience that consumers have
Speaker 1: is greater than ever and it's exciting. What's the lesson
Speaker 1: learned from the pandemic on inventory management that's so much
Speaker 1: part of the failure of margins. Is there something that
Speaker 1: carries over that they all learned about inventory reduction and
Speaker 1: sk use helps to drive profitability? Managing inventory is key.
Speaker 1: Can you do more with less? And can you personalize
Speaker 1: the offering so that you don't have an abundance of
Speaker 1: goods leading to mark downs. The head wind today is
Speaker 1: definitely supply chain and getting goods into the US. We
Speaker 1: hear that from company after company and it doesn't seem
Speaker 1: like that's going to normalize before the end of the year,
Speaker 1: so we're gonna have tight inventory levels as we go
Speaker 1: through the second half of the year. How are companies
Speaker 1: dealing with that, the supply chain issues that they see
Speaker 1: persisting for a while some of the different ways they're
Speaker 1: dealing with it. They're bringing goods in by air. It's
Speaker 1: not a cheap way to do things, but it helps
Speaker 1: to meet demand and you'd rather not lose the sale
Speaker 1: and bring goods in that you can sell at a
Speaker 1: full price. Some of them are transitioning from the West
Speaker 1: Coast ports to the East coast ports. But reduction in
Speaker 1: inventory and hopefully lower inventory levels than we had in
Speaker 1: the past, will lead to a much more balanced promotional
Speaker 1: environment in the future. As the delta variant continues to spread,
Speaker 1: our people overestimating or underestimating the return of brick and mortar.
Speaker 1: I think basically, as the delta variant spreads, we're continuing
Speaker 1: to see reopenings, recover physical story footprints, encouraging, traffic improving,
Speaker 1: but conversion is higher than traffic. Consumers are going with
Speaker 1: destinations in mind and picking up goods. There is certainly
Speaker 1: a concern that will traffic slow a bit if we
Speaker 1: see this delta variant expand. But now companies know how
Speaker 1: to manufacture and to deliver the whole experience with omni channel,
Speaker 1: That omni channel customer is more profitable than the single
Speaker 1: channel customer. In big backs, what's your single best by
Speaker 1: Dana right now? I mean, look what targets doing. It's
Speaker 1: pretty special. And frankly, look what's Walmart. Walmart is doing.
Speaker 1: I think the big box discounters are capturing more consumers.
Speaker 1: How long can this consumer boom continue? Though in terms
Speaker 1: of spending, Given the fact that we are seeing prices rise,
Speaker 1: and we are expecting some of the wage increases to
Speaker 1: start to slow. So when we see the wage increases
Speaker 1: slow and yes, prices are rising. We've heard about it
Speaker 1: in footwear, We've heard about it in other categories. To
Speaker 1: child tax credits going to be there through the end
Speaker 1: of the year. The savings rate is high. I think
Speaker 1: we're gonna see a sustained demand of enhanced spending as
Speaker 1: we go through the Christmas time period. Is where people
Speaker 1: are spending? Is that changing? I know that we went
Speaker 1: through the cycle of devices, and then recently we've seen
Speaker 1: an explosion of people trying to buy clothes at fit
Speaker 1: them as they try to return to the office. Where
Speaker 1: are the hot spots right now heading into your end?
Speaker 1: I think heading into the year end by category, I
Speaker 1: think a parallel is a hot spot, the innovation that
Speaker 1: you have, whether it's denim, whether it is footwear. And frankly,
Speaker 1: look at luxury because the strength there has been quite solid.
Speaker 1: I think the other hot spots that we're gonna be
Speaker 1: seeting out there. I mean take a look at off price.
Speaker 1: Off price stores basically weren't open for a significant part
Speaker 1: of last year. They don't have the digital Channel. We
Speaker 1: should be a benefit to that also. Dana Telsea. One
Speaker 1: final question, you are a beast of Manhattan. In New
Speaker 1: York City, we all drive around and see the empty stores.
Speaker 1: How do you react when you see empty store on
Speaker 1: Second Avenue on your Madison Avenue and Fifth Avenue are
Speaker 1: way over on you know, the west side. How do
Speaker 1: you respond to that? It's depressant. I want to see life.
Speaker 1: I want to see stores coming back to Manhattan. We
Speaker 1: are seeing people come back to live in Manhattan. We've
Speaker 1: certainly seen an optic and apartment sales and the improvement
Speaker 1: in Madison Avenue. I'm hearing of an acceleration of some
Speaker 1: openings on Madison Avenue in this back half of the year.
Speaker 1: We need the vibrancy to come back to the neighborhoods.
Speaker 1: Even in the Flat Iron district. The Harry Potter store opened,
Speaker 1: but then you have so many closings elsewhere. Tourism will
Speaker 1: help to bring traffic, the return of work, even in
Speaker 1: hybrid manner, and kids going to school. Danny Telsey, thank
Speaker 1: you so much, greatly greatly appreciated. Of course, with Telsey
Speaker 1: Advisory Group, heeriod update their enthusiasm from Mr Phelbon This
Speaker 1: morning on Walmart and on Target. This is the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from
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Speaker 1: Tom Keene, and this is Bloomberg