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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa Brownwitz Jay Ley, we bring

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Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and

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Speaker 1: international relations. To find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, Suncloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com and of course on the Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 1: Chisel and Marble at Princeton a few years ago, and

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Speaker 1: Joan Bavan joins us today. What was it like to

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Speaker 1: go in front of your PhD advisors at Princeton? Who

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Speaker 1: were those guys? Uh? Ben Bernankee, Mike, Michael Woodford, Mark Watson,

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Speaker 1: Michael Watt Watson was my man advisor. Um, that was

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Speaker 1: it was. It was a great momentum. I would not

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Speaker 1: have remembered the title if you have not said it,

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Speaker 1: so thanks for bringing that up. No, it's very very cool.

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Speaker 1: I mean, do you have Bernankey moving one way on

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Speaker 1: economics and Michael Woodford with a math maddox on the

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Speaker 1: other side. Must have been intimidating. Is that kind of

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Speaker 1: brain power gonna show itself at Jackson Hole this year?

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Speaker 1: Are we gonna dovetail the mathematics of Woodford with the

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Speaker 1: more holistic economics of Bernanke at Jackson Hole Young. Uh. Interesting,

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Speaker 1: to be honest, we're we're we're kind of wondering what

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Speaker 1: will really happen there. UM. Our view is that there's

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Speaker 1: maybe too much hope that this is gonna be a

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Speaker 1: policy signaling exercise, Uh, especially around the paper. So I

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Speaker 1: think this might be a disappointment and uh, maybe returning

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Speaker 1: more to hardcore kind of like academic input to policy making,

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Speaker 1: like we've that used to be the case maybe with

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Speaker 1: a yet this last year with the framework review so on.

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Speaker 1: Based on your tenure at the Bank of Canada, based

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Speaker 1: on your experience with central bankers and having them as colleagues,

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Speaker 1: do you think that they're concerned by how much control

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Speaker 1: they have are perceived control by markets over not only

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Speaker 1: benchmark rates, but just risk appetite in general. Um concerned.

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Speaker 1: I'm I'm thinking they're pretty aware of you know, central

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Speaker 1: central making has been in the front stage for since

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Speaker 1: two thousand eight. Uh, we only came in town, So

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Speaker 1: I think they've gotten used to the attention and the

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Speaker 1: center role that they're playing. I think this is evolving though,

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Speaker 1: UM and uh in our view, like fiscal policies is

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Speaker 1: now taking the baton from from them will be more

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Speaker 1: so going forward. So I think we're kind of a

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Speaker 1: juncture where things are changing a bit. But I think

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Speaker 1: their concern is probably more about, like how they communicate

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Speaker 1: around the current situation. I think the potential for mistake

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Speaker 1: is pretty high. We've seen it. I think we're losing

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Speaker 1: a bit of a long term anchor on on ten

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Speaker 1: year yields, for instance, and I think this is largely

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Speaker 1: due to on certainly around the Central Bank. You know,

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Speaker 1: out looking, we're losing a long term anchor on a

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Speaker 1: ten year yields. Elaborate, please, what does that mean to you?

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Speaker 1: I think when you look at the price movement from

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Speaker 1: the last two months, right we went from pricing and

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Speaker 1: nation fears uh with tenuiels that were on the way

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Speaker 1: up to what we see now is a complete disconnect

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Speaker 1: between the macro outlook and you know the woman we've

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Speaker 1: seen in yields um you know. Various explanations for that,

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Speaker 1: technical and so on, but I think one of them is,

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Speaker 1: you know, a big debate around what the Central ban

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Speaker 1: is actually doing. Markets trying to digest that your framework,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's part of the story there. John.

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Speaker 1: I look at the entire economics right now in the

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Speaker 1: word that we keep talking about here between John and

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Speaker 1: Lisa and me, and we make jokes about it, but

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Speaker 1: it's really serious microeconomic foundations. Which is the ambiguity of

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Speaker 1: what's going to happen given a given thrust in inflation.

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Speaker 1: What's the key ambiguity of which way the financial system

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Speaker 1: cuts given a higher inflation? What's the key mystery? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think, I think Tom, this is exactly Uh. You know,

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Speaker 1: what I think is very unusual about the current situation

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Speaker 1: is that the range of outcome that we are templating collectively,

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Speaker 1: bit on inflation, bit on what the central nights will

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Speaker 1: be doing, even on growth, what is it a restart?

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Speaker 1: Is it at the beginning of a longer kind of

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Speaker 1: you know, expansion. This is a pretty wide range of

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Speaker 1: of outcome, and I think the markets in those environments

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Speaker 1: tend to interpret the news flow and then go from

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Speaker 1: one kind of potential outcome to the other. Uh. And

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Speaker 1: and these are more like binary kind of outcome, and

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Speaker 1: that creates like the volatility what we're saying, I think,

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Speaker 1: I think what where there's consensus is that this is

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Speaker 1: a pretty constructive environment for RISCO we're seeing that inequities.

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Speaker 1: Of course, we're pro risk. We're to be prosc at

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Speaker 1: the stage, so that is kind of consensus. But from

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Speaker 1: here on the unusually wide range, and I think we're

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Speaker 1: gonna we're facing binary outcomes. John Pharaoh has led our

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Speaker 1: discussion here of stock and flow, and I would suggest

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Speaker 1: when we look at the death, the deficit is a

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Speaker 1: static object. It's a bathtub. That's the size of an

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Speaker 1: Olympic pool should be Should we be worried about the

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Speaker 1: stocks the size of the pool that's built up of

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Speaker 1: these things we worry about. Yeah, I think I think

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Speaker 1: there's been uh we we left the stock a bit

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Speaker 1: out of the picture. But like if you if you

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Speaker 1: just take a step back and look since COVID, uh,

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Speaker 1: the amount of spending that has been like put on

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Speaker 1: the table, including with the infrastructure build this week and

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Speaker 1: the reconciliation, we're gonna see no going forward. We're talking

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Speaker 1: about like amounting a total of GDP and new spending

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Speaker 1: that you know we didn't we didn't have pre COVID.

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Speaker 1: That's a large amount. That's your stock point. Um, we

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Speaker 1: are comfortable or you know, pretty relaxed about this, given

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Speaker 1: the rate they're saying, but I think we're much more

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Speaker 1: now subject and uh, and we're facing a fragile environment

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Speaker 1: where if there are adjustment in rates, it's going to

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Speaker 1: be a lot more disruptive with the stock much larger now, Jean,

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Speaker 1: before we let you go, Dean Courne on the show

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Speaker 1: earlier said that the inflation is contained is the same

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Speaker 1: as sub our prime is contained of today. That basically, Uh,

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Speaker 1: this is a faith based assertion that has yet to

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Speaker 1: be proven, and it really goes to your call about

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Speaker 1: the question marks underpinning where treasure yields are today. Do

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Speaker 1: you agree that inflation is controlled is the same kind

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Speaker 1: of view as subprime is contained of two thousand seven

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Speaker 1: two thousand six. Yeah, I think I think it's even

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Speaker 1: more than subprime because inflation is in my view and

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Speaker 1: our view of purely self fulfilling phenomenal ultimately, so it's

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Speaker 1: what we what we believe or markets believe it to be.

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Speaker 1: UM and I think we're seeing that the elements for

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Speaker 1: inflation to to break out to our level, we think

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Speaker 1: it's going to be contained. Ultimately that's still like kind

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Speaker 1: of our baseline, but that's only given. That's far from

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Speaker 1: a given. An episode in the past where inflation got

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Speaker 1: out of end. I mean, we're not expected, you know,

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Speaker 1: before they happen. So I think that's a that's a

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Speaker 1: fair I would I would, I would have sympathy for

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Speaker 1: that point. And I think this is under appreciated as

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Speaker 1: a risk. Jean bo Then, thank you so much, greatly,

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Speaker 1: greatly appreciated this morning with black Rock. They're really really

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Speaker 1: informed discussion their folks and some of the dynamics that

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Speaker 1: we see right now. I think cut in a macro

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Speaker 1: drisk at five is founder and CEO Dean. The complacency,

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Speaker 1: the complacency of us to start a program like we

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Speaker 1: have done start this hour like we just have look

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Speaker 1: through all time highs forty seven of them today on

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Speaker 1: the SMP five hundred, and it just seems to me

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Speaker 1: that we're numb when numb to any incoming information that

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Speaker 1: tells you otherwise about this bullish story you've creates it.

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Speaker 1: What does that's how you do well? You know? I

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Speaker 1: like the Field of Dreams exercise. I think it's interesting

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Speaker 1: to take a movie and kind of make it into

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Speaker 1: real life. But I also in terms of markets, I

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Speaker 1: like taking real events and looking back on him and

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Speaker 1: it is ten years to the week that the I

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Speaker 1: would call it the joint crisis between the Eurozone sovereign

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Speaker 1: episode of and the US dead ceiling showdown occurred. And

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Speaker 1: for the week of this week ten years ago, realized

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Speaker 1: volatility in the s P was nine. This week realized

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Speaker 1: volatility and SMP is three point five cent. So it

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Speaker 1: just goes to show you the extent to which markets

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Speaker 1: can go from extremely high levels of alatility to as

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Speaker 1: you're discussing something that really is a snooze fest. And

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Speaker 1: I think the important part about the snooze fest is

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Speaker 1: it really dulls our imagination. It it catches us, it

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Speaker 1: causes us to be caught off guard. And of course

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Speaker 1: the lynchpin of it all, I know you host your

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Speaker 1: show the really Yield. There's not much that up um,

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Speaker 1: so you know everything is linked to a minus one

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Speaker 1: point one too more negative tenure yield, everything, equity valuations,

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Speaker 1: low levels of volatility, and I just I'm very concerned

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Speaker 1: that we're trusting the central banks in a way that

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Speaker 1: you know, history has proven unkind to that level of trust.

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Speaker 1: I go back to, for example, the early two thousand

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Speaker 1: seven period, and to me, uh, sub prime is contained

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Speaker 1: is the inflation is transitory. Of these epic misreads by

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Speaker 1: central bankers shouldn't be forgotten. They can cause ultimately cause

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Speaker 1: a lot of market harm. H Dana, I want to

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Speaker 1: know how VIX sets here. We had a VIX of

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Speaker 1: twenty two, twenty one whatever back in mid July, and

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Speaker 1: now down we go under sixteen at today. Tell me

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Speaker 1: what the Greek letters say right now, the co movements

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Speaker 1: of the markets say about the umph to get the

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Speaker 1: VIX down to a true bullmarket fourteen or dare I

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Speaker 1: say thirteen? Well, as as I as I mentioned, you know,

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Speaker 1: realized volatility around three and a half percent. It's almost

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Speaker 1: as if the SP five is a PEG's currency, right,

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Speaker 1: and options on a peg are really not worth very much.

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Speaker 1: And so the gravitational pull as you call it and

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Speaker 1: in the VIX is really contingent on not just this

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Speaker 1: low level of volatility realized volatility, but it's it's nearly

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Speaker 1: ground to a screeching halt. So you know, I had

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Speaker 1: the VIX floorida around seventeen. Obviously we've breached that. And

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Speaker 1: what causes you to breach it is when you get

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Speaker 1: such shockingly low levels of movement, it's it's the quiet,

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Speaker 1: and uh, A lot of folks have forecasted that there

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Speaker 1: would be some fireworks in August that that has been

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Speaker 1: with some regularity a month where the summer vacation got disrupted.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't look like, at least for now, that that's

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Speaker 1: going to happen right now. So, UM, you know, I

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Speaker 1: think when I step back, I just try to look

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Speaker 1: at risk reward, and you're right. The equity markets going up,

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Speaker 1: it's not going up a ton, uh, And so you

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Speaker 1: know what I worry about is this degree of complacency. Uh.

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Speaker 1: That again, it's it's grounded in the mispricing of nominal

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Speaker 1: yields versus the rate of inflation. We're we're really hoping

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Speaker 1: that uh, inflation comes down. It's just very difficult to know.

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Speaker 1: And the damage that could result should did not prove

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Speaker 1: transitory and bond yields react ultimately and kind of push

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Speaker 1: higher on a nominal level. Dingnitating us. I just want

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Speaker 1: to make you, get you to make the point. You

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Speaker 1: said something that I will not let pass. You said

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Speaker 1: that inflation in transitory is transitory, is the new subprime

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Speaker 1: is contained. That's quite a cool. So let's get the

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Speaker 1: conviction call in this market, not the ips, the butts

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Speaker 1: on the one hand, On the other, what's the coal.

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Speaker 1: I think the call is that the the the valuation

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Speaker 1: argument that's being made in equities is contingent on something

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Speaker 1: that we just have no idea around. And the data

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Speaker 1: tells us, at least so far, that nominal yields are

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Speaker 1: so far below the rate of inflation that the FED

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Speaker 1: could be in a very very difficult spot if we

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Speaker 1: go back and look at all the risk offs that

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Speaker 1: that we've that we've had, and you know, there have

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Speaker 1: been some doozies along the way. The FED has always

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Speaker 1: been there to massage the market and to to lift

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Speaker 1: it higher for for a couple of reasons. One is

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Speaker 1: that market risk and economic risk typically occur at the

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Speaker 1: same time, right the they typically run into trouble at

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Speaker 1: the same time, and so the FED, in its remit

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Speaker 1: to revive the economy, ultimately has these policies with with

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Speaker 1: work which work more directly on asset prices. But the

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Speaker 1: bigger point, John, is that the feds air cover is

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Speaker 1: always that the rate of inflation, the rate of inflation

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Speaker 1: is below targets, so it's allowed to do much. We're

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Speaker 1: in a much different circumstance. Now, the rate of inflation

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Speaker 1: is well well well above target. So if we do

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Speaker 1: run into a risk off, we've got to be asking

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Speaker 1: ourselves the question, what's the FED going to do? Just

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Speaker 1: giving that inflation so far far above target already to day,

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Speaker 1: so so important and a place we got you on

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Speaker 1: a spot on that question, then count it there a

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Speaker 1: macro risk Adfinience is the founder and CEO Tom that

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Speaker 1: line there, Inflation is transitory? Is the new subprime is contained?

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Speaker 1: That's something to take an out. Tell Well, let's get

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Speaker 1: from New York to why I'm bringing Joe my work

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Speaker 1: the chief economist ACTS or Investment Management. Joe. Let's start

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Speaker 1: the August twenty because no one's really interested in August

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Speaker 1: this morning, it saint was. Let's start in August twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Jackson Hall, what are you looking for from the FED

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Speaker 1: chairmen at that gathering? I'd be I'd be surprised if

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Speaker 1: we had a sort of formal announcement from from them

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Speaker 1: or from him actually in Jackson Hall, because the last

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Speaker 1: few years, quite a few years actually, the FED is

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Speaker 1: try to tone down the importance of Jackson Hall in

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Speaker 1: terms when it comes to to actual policy announcements. It's

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Speaker 1: a place where you debate, it's a place where you

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Speaker 1: lay the ground for your future announcements, but you you

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Speaker 1: don't use it really to be too precise about what

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Speaker 1: you want to do. So my guesses starts we'll have

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Speaker 1: a pretty consensual discussion from everybody from the FED making

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Speaker 1: it clear that hey, you know, we may still have

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Speaker 1: some sort of differences on the exact timing of when

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Speaker 1: we taper, but tapering we will and this is this

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Speaker 1: is for the coming months. Probed As a Frenchman, I

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Speaker 1: have trouble putting a nest after th um. So yeah, consensual.

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Speaker 1: Not a lot of conversations of dissenters, I would say,

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Speaker 1: because they're all moving into in direction if you, if

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Speaker 1: you really speaks, so probably not much suspense JO define

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Speaker 1: data dependency for us in the theme as Jackson Hall

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Speaker 1: is going to be waiting and waiting and waiting to

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Speaker 1: find this new data dependency of this new FED. Definitely,

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Speaker 1: And I don't think that they can answer any precise

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Speaker 1: question at this at this stage because on tapering, okay,

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Speaker 1: it's a matter of months on when they would fully

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Speaker 1: normalize military policy, i e. When they would actually stop

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Speaker 1: moving great they've given themselves a lot of leeway. And

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Speaker 1: this is where I think they will will have to

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Speaker 1: learn by by by watching them and and and follow

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Speaker 1: follow their their stride because um before the pandemic struck, honestly,

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Speaker 1: there was no consensus on where uh the natural uh

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Speaker 1: unclun rate was in the US. There was no agreement

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Speaker 1: on where the equilibrium interest rate was in the US.

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Speaker 1: It's become even more unclear in this in this crisis. UM,

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Speaker 1: So I think they will be extremely progetic. And there's

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Speaker 1: again not much they can say at this stage on

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Speaker 1: what they intend to do in the next two or

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Speaker 1: three years. It's sort of shocking to me. We get

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Speaker 1: equity analysts after equity analysts saying, by this rally, basically

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Speaker 1: it's going to keep going up, It's going to go

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Speaker 1: up more than we had previously expected. We have pretty

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Speaker 1: incredibly good data. We're coming out of the labor market,

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Speaker 1: coming out of inflation. Where you know, if you want

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Speaker 1: to see inflation, if you start to see recovery signs

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Speaker 1: all over the place. Why are economists not changing their

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Speaker 1: projections after the past two weeks. Why is this transitory?

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Speaker 1: Why does this fit into everybody's narrative on the economic side.

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Speaker 1: If it's not on the equity analysts side, I think,

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Speaker 1: well it come. Mists usually try to to to focus

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Speaker 1: on on one of the fundamentals are telling us, and

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Speaker 1: probably try to take on board what the impact of

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Speaker 1: the beginning of the normalization of manatory policy will mean.

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Speaker 1: At the moment. Yes, you're right, the fundamentals are telling

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Speaker 1: great story. Earnings are doing well, the economies reopening a

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Speaker 1: fast clip. We were very worried about the delta variant,

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Speaker 1: but it seems that, you know, the capacity of the

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Speaker 1: Committe to deal with it is higher than we than

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Speaker 1: we thought, higher than we feared. Still, there's an elephant

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Speaker 1: in the room. The elephant in the room is how

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Speaker 1: is the market going to behave once we start losing

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Speaker 1: this massive constant purchases of of a verris cree asset

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Speaker 1: and not so risk free assets from from central banks.

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Speaker 1: It's not for immediate consumption in Europe, which may explain

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Speaker 1: why the equity market is doing even better in your

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Speaker 1: right now, But in the US it's a matter of months.

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Speaker 1: So I guess most economists are trying to trying to

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Speaker 1: to to work the models and start to think, hey,

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Speaker 1: you know, once I take out from the equation those

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Speaker 1: billions of dollars of purchases, where should the market be?

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Speaker 1: And you know, this is probably what makes us a

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Speaker 1: bit grumpy, but that probably comes with the trade. You know,

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Speaker 1: how do you gauge that? Is that just a guess?

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Speaker 1: How do you know how the market will respond? What

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Speaker 1: do you look for? Well, you can try actually to

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Speaker 1: come up with with correct models, which which makes sense

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Speaker 1: because we've had actually years and years now of experience

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Speaker 1: of an increase in the size of central banks balance sheet.

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Speaker 1: We've had years of experience with with que so you

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Speaker 1: can actually it's not that complicated. You can actually UH

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Speaker 1: estimate the impact of a change in the balance sheet

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Speaker 1: of the central bank on equity prices. That's not that's

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Speaker 1: not rocket science. The question though, is that, um, what

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Speaker 1: we what is really complicated to UH to estimate is

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Speaker 1: the psychological impact fact that even if the central bank

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Speaker 1: stopped buying, and then the model is going to tell you, hey,

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Speaker 1: you know that means expersent less on the trajectory for

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Speaker 1: for risky assets. The problem is that now the market

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Speaker 1: knows that if something goes wrong, central banks are going

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Speaker 1: to act probably faster and in a bigger way than before.

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Speaker 1: So that provides a sort of insurance, sort of flooring

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Speaker 1: to the market. And that's the pits that is really

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Speaker 1: really hard to to to estinate. But the direct impact,

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Speaker 1: yes you can and there are lots of models which

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Speaker 1: which do that. The conditioning jail, we've got to leave

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Speaker 1: it there. Really great fan of thoughts. You're my work

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Speaker 1: there Banks for Investment Management, the chief economists Danny tells it.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us today. And the

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Speaker 1: state of retail. What's the why behind you're you're in

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Speaker 1: Joe Felban's enthusiasm. What's the om that's getting retailed to

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Speaker 1: the end of the year. Thank you so much time

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Speaker 1: for having me. I think them that's getting retail to

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Speaker 1: the end of the year. I think number one, it's

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Speaker 1: the consumer, the dollars that they have and the pent

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Speaker 1: up demand that they have for gathering and hopefully being

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Speaker 1: together in a safe way if if this variant can

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Speaker 1: be controlled. I think the other thing is the innovation

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Speaker 1: that companies have more new product innovation, and not just

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Speaker 1: in product, but think about also in transaction transformation, whether

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Speaker 1: it's curbside, whether it's digital, the convenience that consumers have

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Speaker 1: is greater than ever and it's exciting. What's the lesson

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Speaker 1: learned from the pandemic on inventory management that's so much

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Speaker 1: part of the failure of margins. Is there something that

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Speaker 1: carries over that they all learned about inventory reduction and

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Speaker 1: sk use helps to drive profitability? Managing inventory is key.

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Speaker 1: Can you do more with less? And can you personalize

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Speaker 1: the offering so that you don't have an abundance of

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Speaker 1: goods leading to mark downs. The head wind today is

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Speaker 1: definitely supply chain and getting goods into the US. We

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Speaker 1: hear that from company after company and it doesn't seem

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Speaker 1: like that's going to normalize before the end of the year,

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Speaker 1: so we're gonna have tight inventory levels as we go

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Speaker 1: through the second half of the year. How are companies

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Speaker 1: dealing with that, the supply chain issues that they see

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Speaker 1: persisting for a while some of the different ways they're

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Speaker 1: dealing with it. They're bringing goods in by air. It's

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Speaker 1: not a cheap way to do things, but it helps

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Speaker 1: to meet demand and you'd rather not lose the sale

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Speaker 1: and bring goods in that you can sell at a

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Speaker 1: full price. Some of them are transitioning from the West

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Speaker 1: Coast ports to the East coast ports. But reduction in

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Speaker 1: inventory and hopefully lower inventory levels than we had in

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Speaker 1: the past, will lead to a much more balanced promotional

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Speaker 1: environment in the future. As the delta variant continues to spread,

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Speaker 1: our people overestimating or underestimating the return of brick and mortar.

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Speaker 1: I think basically, as the delta variant spreads, we're continuing

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Speaker 1: to see reopenings, recover physical story footprints, encouraging, traffic improving,

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Speaker 1: but conversion is higher than traffic. Consumers are going with

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Speaker 1: destinations in mind and picking up goods. There is certainly

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Speaker 1: a concern that will traffic slow a bit if we

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Speaker 1: see this delta variant expand. But now companies know how

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Speaker 1: to manufacture and to deliver the whole experience with omni channel,

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Speaker 1: That omni channel customer is more profitable than the single

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Speaker 1: channel customer. In big backs, what's your single best by

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Speaker 1: Dana right now? I mean, look what targets doing. It's

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Speaker 1: pretty special. And frankly, look what's Walmart. Walmart is doing.

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Speaker 1: I think the big box discounters are capturing more consumers.

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Speaker 1: How long can this consumer boom continue? Though in terms

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Speaker 1: of spending, Given the fact that we are seeing prices rise,

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Speaker 1: and we are expecting some of the wage increases to

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Speaker 1: start to slow. So when we see the wage increases

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Speaker 1: slow and yes, prices are rising. We've heard about it

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Speaker 1: in footwear, We've heard about it in other categories. To

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Speaker 1: child tax credits going to be there through the end

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Speaker 1: of the year. The savings rate is high. I think

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Speaker 1: we're gonna see a sustained demand of enhanced spending as

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Speaker 1: we go through the Christmas time period. Is where people

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Speaker 1: are spending? Is that changing? I know that we went

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Speaker 1: through the cycle of devices, and then recently we've seen

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Speaker 1: an explosion of people trying to buy clothes at fit

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Speaker 1: them as they try to return to the office. Where

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Speaker 1: are the hot spots right now heading into your end?

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Speaker 1: I think heading into the year end by category, I

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Speaker 1: think a parallel is a hot spot, the innovation that

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Speaker 1: you have, whether it's denim, whether it is footwear. And frankly,

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Speaker 1: look at luxury because the strength there has been quite solid.

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Speaker 1: I think the other hot spots that we're gonna be

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Speaker 1: seeting out there. I mean take a look at off price.

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Speaker 1: Off price stores basically weren't open for a significant part

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Speaker 1: of last year. They don't have the digital Channel. We

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Speaker 1: should be a benefit to that also. Dana Telsea. One

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Speaker 1: final question, you are a beast of Manhattan. In New

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Speaker 1: York City, we all drive around and see the empty stores.

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Speaker 1: How do you react when you see empty store on

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Speaker 1: Second Avenue on your Madison Avenue and Fifth Avenue are

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Speaker 1: way over on you know, the west side. How do

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Speaker 1: you respond to that? It's depressant. I want to see life.

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Speaker 1: I want to see stores coming back to Manhattan. We

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Speaker 1: are seeing people come back to live in Manhattan. We've

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Speaker 1: certainly seen an optic and apartment sales and the improvement

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Speaker 1: in Madison Avenue. I'm hearing of an acceleration of some

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Speaker 1: openings on Madison Avenue in this back half of the year.

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Speaker 1: We need the vibrancy to come back to the neighborhoods.

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Speaker 1: Even in the Flat Iron district. The Harry Potter store opened,

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Speaker 1: but then you have so many closings elsewhere. Tourism will

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Speaker 1: help to bring traffic, the return of work, even in

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Speaker 1: hybrid manner, and kids going to school. Danny Telsey, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much, greatly greatly appreciated. Of course, with Telsey

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Speaker 1: Advisory Group, heeriod update their enthusiasm from Mr Phelbon This

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Speaker 1: morning on Walmart and on Target. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from

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Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on

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