1
00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,960
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju Us prow read.

2
00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:14,440
Speaker 2: Enough there were running again. So smoothe so sweet, splendid

3
00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:19,400
Speaker 2: sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

4
00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:22,520
Speaker 2: sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

5
00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,680
Speaker 1: How shot with that? Shop with mind bog buddy, And.

6
00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:29,440
Speaker 3: That's why you see your beautiful tiers.

7
00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:31,360
Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most.

8
00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:32,280
Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet.

9
00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:33,040
Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

10
00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:44,400
Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying the one. It's left too, the

11
00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:47,040
Speaker 2: wide eyed drilled bibus.

12
00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:50,120
Speaker 3: How old earth pick that happens?

13
00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:55,480
Speaker 1: Hello everyone, Welcome back to Wonder Goal, the soccer betting

14
00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:58,360
Speaker 1: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Lee Buff.

15
00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:02,720
Speaker 1: Joining me as always are my co hosts and friends

16
00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:08,399
Speaker 1: confidants BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo. And this is our

17
00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:14,280
Speaker 1: Champions League preview for Tuesday November seventh and Wednesday November eighth.

18
00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:16,280
Speaker 1: So we'll take you through match by match and give

19
00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:19,520
Speaker 1: out our favorite bets as we get to them. How

20
00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:23,560
Speaker 1: but before we do this, we go on this handicapping adventure.

21
00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:26,240
Speaker 1: A reminder that Wonder Goal is presented by Bet three

22
00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,920
Speaker 1: sixty five and Bet three sixty five does not do ordinary.

23
00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:32,360
Speaker 1: It believes that every sport should be epic. Every tournament,

24
00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:35,280
Speaker 1: every game, every point, every play, from the moments that

25
00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:37,560
Speaker 1: are legendary to the ones that fly under the radar.

26
00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,400
Speaker 1: See for yourself when you sign up with Promo Code

27
00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:43,120
Speaker 1: Action and you'll get three hundred and sixty five dollars

28
00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:45,640
Speaker 1: in bonus bets when you bet just one dollar. Whatever

29
00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:48,120
Speaker 1: the sport, whatever the moment, it is never ordinary. At

30
00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:51,600
Speaker 1: bet three sixty five, you must be twenty one or older.

31
00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:56,400
Speaker 1: You must be present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio,

32
00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:58,680
Speaker 1: or Virginia. And if you or someone you know has

33
00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:01,200
Speaker 1: a gambling problem and wants out, please call one eight

34
00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:04,560
Speaker 1: hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia,

35
00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:08,200
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Bjay's home state

36
00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:13,720
Speaker 1: of Iowa. Terms and conditions apply. Yeah, so we got

37
00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:19,440
Speaker 1: sixteen Champions League matches coming up. The slate is very

38
00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:24,520
Speaker 1: tilted towards Wednesday being the better one. I know less

39
00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,760
Speaker 1: Match Day was the opposite with Tuesday being the better one.

40
00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:30,640
Speaker 1: It's just the way that the schedules worked out. So

41
00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:34,000
Speaker 1: we'll do our best to make Tuesday seem interesting before

42
00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:37,720
Speaker 1: getting to Wednesday, which I think is plenty actionable. But

43
00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,639
Speaker 1: we'll start with the headliner on Tuesday, which is Dortmund

44
00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:45,960
Speaker 1: and Newcastle in Dortmund at the yellow Wall, where Dortmund

45
00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:50,480
Speaker 1: is a plus one sixty two slight slight, slight, slight underdog.

46
00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:52,160
Speaker 1: It's even unfair to call them that. It's basically a

47
00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:55,160
Speaker 1: pick them on the three way line. It's Newcastle plus

48
00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:58,919
Speaker 1: one sixteen the draws plus two fifty Anthony, let's get

49
00:02:58,919 --> 00:02:59,640
Speaker 1: this party started.

50
00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:02,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I do show a little bit of value

51
00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:06,240
Speaker 3: on Newcastle. You know, there's always a question of like

52
00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:08,040
Speaker 3: what do you make of what just happened? Right, because

53
00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:09,680
Speaker 3: all of these matches that we just had, we're all

54
00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:12,520
Speaker 3: played two weeks ago in the opposite arena, So you

55
00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:14,320
Speaker 3: don't want to overreact to one game, but I think

56
00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:16,560
Speaker 3: you can learn a few things from it that matter

57
00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:18,960
Speaker 3: for the next game. The biggest thing for me was

58
00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:21,400
Speaker 3: the first half, because I thought Dortmann came out with

59
00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:26,040
Speaker 3: a clear plan to kind of press Newcastle and to

60
00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:28,840
Speaker 3: turn the tables on Newcastle as Newcastle often does to

61
00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:31,440
Speaker 3: other teams, and it was pretty effective. They got a

62
00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:33,400
Speaker 3: lot of turnovers in the middle of the pitch. They

63
00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,640
Speaker 3: broke with numbers into space a lot created a ton

64
00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:38,920
Speaker 3: of chances could have been up like two or three

65
00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:42,040
Speaker 3: if they had some better finishing get the goal late

66
00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,320
Speaker 3: before half. But then Newcastle kind of turned the tide

67
00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:46,160
Speaker 3: in the second half. It was all one way traffic.

68
00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:51,440
Speaker 3: The Magpies dominated the second half. So you know, I

69
00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:54,560
Speaker 3: didn't think the market took a lot of Newcastle money.

70
00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:56,400
Speaker 3: When we did the show, they were like minus one

71
00:03:56,440 --> 00:04:00,400
Speaker 3: thirty five. They ended up closing minus one seventy. If

72
00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,400
Speaker 3: you just change home field, this would have put you

73
00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:08,480
Speaker 3: right around minus one forty five. So this, this number

74
00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:13,520
Speaker 3: is not quite giving enough respect to Newcastle based off

75
00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:16,320
Speaker 3: of just purely the close last week. If you wanted

76
00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:17,680
Speaker 3: to just do that and say that the closing line

77
00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:21,599
Speaker 3: is efficient, then it's probably too low. That being said,

78
00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:23,120
Speaker 3: I did think the closing line was too high two

79
00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:25,400
Speaker 3: weeks ago on Newcastle when it did get up there

80
00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:27,880
Speaker 3: at minus one flat.

81
00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:29,880
Speaker 1: So from this.

82
00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:32,960
Speaker 3: Matchup, you know, there are some you know, fatigue concerns

83
00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:35,840
Speaker 3: for Newcastle after what was a very very physical match

84
00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:38,480
Speaker 3: on Saturday, they basically went to war with Arsenal for

85
00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:41,479
Speaker 3: ninety minutes. Dorman didn't even show up on Saturday, so

86
00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:42,480
Speaker 3: they should be well rested.

87
00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:45,479
Speaker 4: So you know, I don't.

88
00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,680
Speaker 3: I don't really, I don't really have a strong opinion here,

89
00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:50,200
Speaker 3: but I would if you made me bet it, I

90
00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:51,120
Speaker 3: would take Newcastle.

91
00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:53,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you too, I think almost. It's it's

92
00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:55,919
Speaker 1: pretty simple here, is that we believe Newcastle will be

93
00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:59,800
Speaker 1: one of the best teams in all Europe, and even

94
00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:02,719
Speaker 1: on the road here in a tough environment, probably deserved

95
00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:05,960
Speaker 1: to be a favorite. I guess a dortmun team like

96
00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:07,520
Speaker 1: you said, like they just got they just had a

97
00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:12,400
Speaker 1: litmus test this weekend and they failed it after obviously

98
00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:16,080
Speaker 1: passing with flying colors against Newcastle and that that litmus test.

99
00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:19,919
Speaker 1: So I'm a slight like bi low situation with maybe

100
00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:24,400
Speaker 1: people like Anthony a little tripidacious about betting Newcastle after

101
00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:27,040
Speaker 1: what they saw against Dortmund and the if you want

102
00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:29,520
Speaker 1: to call it, the first like of these little two

103
00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,440
Speaker 1: match series. So I do think that there's some some

104
00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:35,359
Speaker 1: value on Newcastle and I'll be on them. BJA.

105
00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:38,440
Speaker 5: I agree, I'll be on Newcastle too. So what I

106
00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:43,200
Speaker 5: found interesting from the Byron match is that of how

107
00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:46,360
Speaker 5: Byron essentially created all their chances and scored all their goals,

108
00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:50,800
Speaker 5: so obviously things kicked off with a set piece goal. Well,

109
00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:52,839
Speaker 5: if you're gonna face Newcastle, they've been a top five

110
00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:55,039
Speaker 5: team in terms of set in terms of XG created

111
00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:57,240
Speaker 5: off set piece over the last year and a half

112
00:05:57,279 --> 00:06:01,839
Speaker 5: in the Premier League. And then essentially once Byron went ahead,

113
00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:05,240
Speaker 5: just everything came in transition. It just happened over and

114
00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:07,960
Speaker 5: over and over again. And that's just what comes down

115
00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:10,400
Speaker 5: to is that game state's going to be very very

116
00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:13,440
Speaker 5: dependent here. It's easy to press high and try to

117
00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:15,599
Speaker 5: disrupt build a play when it's a zero zero game state.

118
00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:18,640
Speaker 5: It's a lot harder to do when you're obviously in

119
00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:20,560
Speaker 5: the lead. And that's essentially what happened with Dortmund and

120
00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:24,960
Speaker 5: that's in that first match in Newcastle is when they

121
00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:27,120
Speaker 5: got the goal, they just kind of sat off and

122
00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:29,160
Speaker 5: they just said, Okay, we've got our goal and we're

123
00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:31,400
Speaker 5: going to try to defend deep here and keep Newcastle out.

124
00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:33,680
Speaker 5: And guess what they did. You know, they kept him

125
00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,320
Speaker 5: just they kept him out. But especially at the end,

126
00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:39,279
Speaker 5: there was I know, there's not a lot, there wasn't

127
00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:41,520
Speaker 5: a lot of you know, high quality chances. The xtually

128
00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:44,279
Speaker 5: won't bear it out but there were a lot of

129
00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:47,040
Speaker 5: late flurry chances for Newcastle that very well could have

130
00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,640
Speaker 5: just bounced one way and gone to create a high

131
00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:53,400
Speaker 5: quality chance. So I still think the matchup's not great

132
00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:56,720
Speaker 5: for Dortmund. Now there's obviously some you know, personnel issues

133
00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:59,800
Speaker 5: here for Newcastle. Boughtman's out. It looks like Dan Burne's

134
00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:02,279
Speaker 5: gonna I missed this match as well, obviously no E shak.

135
00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:08,120
Speaker 5: So it's kind of a tough situation for Newcastle. But again,

136
00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,480
Speaker 5: if you know, Dortmant can come out and press them

137
00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:13,560
Speaker 5: right away. But I think Newcastle will be ready for

138
00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:15,360
Speaker 5: it this time. I'm guessing they weren't ready for it.

139
00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:17,560
Speaker 5: And the other thing that Newcastle is doing that I

140
00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:20,480
Speaker 5: find interesting is that they're not pressing in the usual

141
00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:22,600
Speaker 5: four three three anymore. It's now four or five one,

142
00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:24,160
Speaker 5: So they're trying to win the ball more as a

143
00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,320
Speaker 5: mid block, and you kind of saw it against Wolves

144
00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:28,880
Speaker 5: and against Manchester United, where they're not just like all

145
00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:31,040
Speaker 5: out relentlessly pressing high. They're kind of trying to win

146
00:07:31,080 --> 00:07:34,320
Speaker 5: the ball in the midway line. I think they're realizing

147
00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:36,840
Speaker 5: that with the strain of the Champions League and the

148
00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:38,920
Speaker 5: Premier League that they can't just all out press and

149
00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:41,720
Speaker 5: be that physical, you know, playing three matches in a week,

150
00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:43,600
Speaker 5: so I think they're sitting off a little bit more.

151
00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:45,600
Speaker 5: I think that will give them a better opportunity here.

152
00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:47,440
Speaker 5: And plus, this is a Dortmunt, so I have a

153
00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,840
Speaker 5: high you know, maybe I'm wrong, but I find it

154
00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,320
Speaker 5: hard to believe that Dortmann's just going to hand Newcastle

155
00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:54,880
Speaker 5: the ball again and say hey, here you go. You

156
00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:56,560
Speaker 5: can have the ball for all ninety minutes and we'll

157
00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:58,440
Speaker 5: just sip deep and try to defend or try to

158
00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:01,040
Speaker 5: press you out of possession. So if Dortman is the

159
00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,920
Speaker 5: one controlling lot of possession, that obviously gives Newcastle a

160
00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:06,600
Speaker 5: better advantage here. I projected a little bit of value

161
00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:10,680
Speaker 5: on Newcastle because honestly, with Dortmund, you know, they're about

162
00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:12,720
Speaker 5: a plot. They're a little under a plus a half

163
00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:15,560
Speaker 5: expectable for ninety in the Bundesliga this season. That's with

164
00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:18,600
Speaker 5: playing a pretty week schedule up coming towards the matchkins

165
00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:22,160
Speaker 5: fire Well, Newcastle is still overall one actually differential for

166
00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:25,120
Speaker 5: ninety minutes, so from a projection standpoint, obviously from merely

167
00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:29,280
Speaker 5: being a more difficult league than the Bundesliga. It's a

168
00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:33,280
Speaker 5: pretty significant gap here for in terms of where you

169
00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:36,480
Speaker 5: would project Newcastle comparatively to Dortmund. So did project a

170
00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:39,000
Speaker 5: little bit of value on Newcastle, So I like them,

171
00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:40,800
Speaker 5: Dronovett and minus one oh five.

172
00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:45,840
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah. From there, the slate gets a whole lot swampier,

173
00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:49,120
Speaker 1: so to speak. So we might preache through a few

174
00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:52,400
Speaker 1: of these. Shocktar is a nine to one underdog at

175
00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:56,800
Speaker 1: home hosting Barcelona. Barcilla coming is a minus four hundred favorite.

176
00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:59,960
Speaker 1: In the jaw is plus five point fifty. The Newcastle

177
00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:03,839
Speaker 1: Dortmut matches is at twelve forty five as the headliner

178
00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:07,120
Speaker 1: on on Tuesday, and this is the other one. And

179
00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,360
Speaker 1: there are a lot of Barsa fans out there, a

180
00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,480
Speaker 1: lot of a lot of huge Barsa fans who would just

181
00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:14,520
Speaker 1: watch Barcelona play whenever they're on. But I think that

182
00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:18,600
Speaker 1: the neutral fans are probably gonna gravitate towards Dortmund and

183
00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,000
Speaker 1: Newcastle here in this twelve forty five time slot. So

184
00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:26,000
Speaker 1: let's quickly talk here. Can you find anything actionable in

185
00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:26,800
Speaker 1: this match? Beija?

186
00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:30,240
Speaker 5: If you were to play aside in this match, I

187
00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,920
Speaker 5: would play Shocktar plus one and a half. I am

188
00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:36,800
Speaker 5: not going to because the last match between these two,

189
00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:39,960
Speaker 5: a lot of barses key players were rested or were injured.

190
00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:42,680
Speaker 5: So you're gonna see Lewandowski, You're gonna see the Deong,

191
00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:47,680
Speaker 5: You're gonna see Peedri and you know, Shocktar they got

192
00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:50,520
Speaker 5: They got blitzed early in this match. Barsa created a

193
00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:52,920
Speaker 5: couple of big scoring chances right off the bat, and

194
00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:55,720
Speaker 5: then Shocktar kind of settled into the match. They started

195
00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:57,319
Speaker 5: playing a little bit better. One thing to look out

196
00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:00,920
Speaker 5: for Shaktar. They do have a new manager assistant from

197
00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:03,720
Speaker 5: Fine Ord. It was his first match in charge against Barcelona,

198
00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:07,400
Speaker 5: so very odd, weird situation going on there. You know,

199
00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:09,200
Speaker 5: we played the under three and a half and that

200
00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:13,040
Speaker 5: one's just too much here for the reverse leg in

201
00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:17,000
Speaker 5: I believe we're playing in the Hamburg not in Hamburg. Yeah,

202
00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:20,120
Speaker 5: so no, it's just if you were to play somebody

203
00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:21,880
Speaker 5: Actually am showing a little bit of value in Shaktar.

204
00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:24,760
Speaker 5: But if Barsa is going to play a full strength lineup,

205
00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:27,560
Speaker 5: given the fact that they had a good first leg

206
00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:29,280
Speaker 5: in Shocktark in terms of you know, the credit over

207
00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:32,760
Speaker 5: to expected goals, so this could be one way traffic.

208
00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:34,679
Speaker 5: So I'm just gonna sit it out.

209
00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:38,000
Speaker 3: I look, I think there's a questions about the Barsa

210
00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:41,920
Speaker 3: transition defense that was on display against Sociodot on Saturday.

211
00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:43,559
Speaker 3: I did not think they played well in that match,

212
00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:46,200
Speaker 3: kind of stole it late, but there are some real

213
00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,319
Speaker 3: questions about that. I think that's something to watch going

214
00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:51,320
Speaker 3: forward as they played better teams. Shocktart was able to

215
00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:53,120
Speaker 3: get one on the break at Barsa, but.

216
00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:55,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, the only time to scored them in the Champions

217
00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:59,160
Speaker 1: League so far. Mm yeah, I think and like the

218
00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:01,680
Speaker 1: table kind of comes into play here where I think

219
00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:06,680
Speaker 1: that Shocktar nose. Their path to advancing would probably be

220
00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:10,160
Speaker 1: just don't get blown out here, then pull the upset

221
00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:12,120
Speaker 1: against Porto and beat Andreworp.

222
00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:15,600
Speaker 5: So maybe it's just it gets to the Europa.

223
00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:18,679
Speaker 1: Get Yeah, so maybe just try to keep it respectable

224
00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:22,320
Speaker 1: and just park the bus from Yeah, the opening kick

225
00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:25,240
Speaker 1: is the way you can kind of game theory and

226
00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:28,839
Speaker 1: underplay or or Shocktar plus one and a half. All right,

227
00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:31,160
Speaker 1: I am under selling the next match. I guess, like

228
00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,200
Speaker 1: the slate isn't that bad. The Group of Death is

229
00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:36,600
Speaker 1: giving us some fun here, So we'll look at Milan

230
00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:40,000
Speaker 1: as a plus two to ten underdog at home against

231
00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:42,600
Speaker 1: PSG plus one twenty and the draws plus two sixty

232
00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:45,800
Speaker 1: for this one group F. This is the situation PSG

233
00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:48,600
Speaker 1: on the top at six, Dortmund and Newcastle are tied

234
00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:51,120
Speaker 1: at four points apiece right behind them, and then it's

235
00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:53,960
Speaker 1: me Lan at the foot with two points. So you

236
00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:56,960
Speaker 1: could call this a little bit. It is a mustling

237
00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:58,960
Speaker 1: game for Melan at home against PSG. Here I would

238
00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:04,560
Speaker 1: say I kind of lean towards I want to bet PSG.

239
00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:07,560
Speaker 1: I just think that they're the better team, They're in

240
00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:12,480
Speaker 1: better form. Milan doesn't score. I know they technically should

241
00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:14,640
Speaker 1: be defending well with the way that they set up,

242
00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:17,960
Speaker 1: and this game should be kind of slow and lumbering.

243
00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:19,960
Speaker 1: But PSG scores too. I think it's over.

244
00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:24,360
Speaker 3: Anthony, Well, the first leg was terrible from a watch perspective.

245
00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:27,040
Speaker 3: It was nothing happened.

246
00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:27,320
Speaker 1: You know.

247
00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:29,920
Speaker 3: PSG had the ball, then they had the ball. Milan

248
00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,760
Speaker 3: just let them have the ball, and then eventually PSGA

249
00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:35,000
Speaker 3: was able to pass it to Ambappe who rinsed the

250
00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:37,720
Speaker 3: defender and scored and it was one nil. Then Bele

251
00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:39,800
Speaker 3: then rinsed the defender and scored and it was two nil,

252
00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:41,640
Speaker 3: and then they got a third goal in transition. And

253
00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,840
Speaker 3: stoppage time, as is the tradition of the season. Because

254
00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,960
Speaker 3: I had the under two and a half. Now the

255
00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:49,920
Speaker 3: under two and a half has not moved a ton, right.

256
00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:52,120
Speaker 3: It was plus one fourteen when I bet it in

257
00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,839
Speaker 3: the first leg in Paris. Now we're in Milan two

258
00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:57,560
Speaker 3: weeks later. There's not really anything that's changed with the

259
00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:00,240
Speaker 3: two teams. I think the biggest notable takeaway it's a

260
00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:04,080
Speaker 3: kimmy against Leao. As good as Leoo is, having somebody

261
00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,200
Speaker 3: who can match him athletically was a huge key for

262
00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:10,559
Speaker 3: PSG defensively when there were rare times when Milan looked

263
00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:13,920
Speaker 3: like they might create something. Milan has to turn it

264
00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:15,800
Speaker 3: up though, like you said, they haven't scored yet. This

265
00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:18,199
Speaker 3: is a group of death. They've played three matches, one

266
00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:20,480
Speaker 3: against a bad Dormann defense and they didn't score and

267
00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:24,000
Speaker 3: they didn't really look like scoring against PSG. Total expected

268
00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:26,080
Speaker 3: goals was one point six last week.

269
00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:29,160
Speaker 1: So they had that one game against Newcastle the opener

270
00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:32,280
Speaker 1: where they should have scored four mm hmm, yeah, and

271
00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:34,080
Speaker 1: they scored zero. Yep.

272
00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:38,319
Speaker 3: And they're still they're they're kind of tweaking now, right,

273
00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:42,120
Speaker 3: They're switching out formations over the weekend. They were really

274
00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:45,440
Speaker 3: bad against Udinese at home. Oka four came on in

275
00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:48,360
Speaker 3: the second half. They didn't get any better like Jovic

276
00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:52,040
Speaker 3: and they benched Pool a sick like they're Pioli has

277
00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:55,200
Speaker 3: recognized the issue here. They're not getting enough shots and

278
00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,440
Speaker 3: Drew has not been great. I just don't really know

279
00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:00,000
Speaker 3: that they have a fix for it. So there's still

280
00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:02,040
Speaker 3: plus one to eight out there. Under two and a half.

281
00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:05,680
Speaker 3: I think I'm gonna bet it again first half under

282
00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:09,560
Speaker 3: one two, maybe split it. This comes out slow because

283
00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:11,960
Speaker 3: I really think PSG can strangle control and Milan's just

284
00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:13,720
Speaker 3: not built a press. If you can't press PSG and

285
00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:15,720
Speaker 3: you let them have the ball, it's tough.

286
00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:18,000
Speaker 5: And that's what they tried to do in the first leg.

287
00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:20,200
Speaker 5: They went man to man with PSG in that first leg,

288
00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:23,680
Speaker 5: and uh, it's a really really dangerous game to play

289
00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:26,040
Speaker 5: against Himbappe and Bele and you saw what happened. They

290
00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:28,560
Speaker 5: got cooked, which was a very weird strategy. You thought

291
00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:30,840
Speaker 5: Pioli might just sit back and play very deep, but no,

292
00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:33,320
Speaker 5: he was trying to come out and put pressure on them.

293
00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,360
Speaker 5: And he can't do that here in the second leg,

294
00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:40,000
Speaker 5: so he doesn't really have many options, So he's either

295
00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:42,480
Speaker 5: going to have to sit deep and try to play

296
00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:44,760
Speaker 5: in transition, or he's just gonna have to try to

297
00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:46,440
Speaker 5: all out blitz again and just hope for the best.

298
00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:48,320
Speaker 5: And they obviously don't have the personnel to do it.

299
00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,600
Speaker 5: I think Dale Hernandez is still out as well, so

300
00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:54,360
Speaker 5: that obviously hurts hay Simalan's ability to get up that

301
00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:58,000
Speaker 5: left wing. So now, I yeah, I don't know what

302
00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:01,560
Speaker 5: they do. It's a very weird conundrum that they're in,

303
00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:03,920
Speaker 5: and I'm not sure that they have a fix for

304
00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:04,560
Speaker 5: it right now.

305
00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:08,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I do think you has a road favorite

306
00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:10,160
Speaker 1: item I'm interested in p SG here.

307
00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:12,360
Speaker 5: I'm sorry too, Hernandez. It looks like he is back

308
00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:14,000
Speaker 5: my baton on that one.

309
00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:18,400
Speaker 1: But still okay, uh Now time to talk about our

310
00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:22,400
Speaker 1: the team of the podcast, Anthony's Boys, those Colchonnaros, the

311
00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:25,960
Speaker 1: Mattress Makers, coming off of a very unlucky defeat. To

312
00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:29,840
Speaker 1: shout out to Country Lawyer, a listener of the pod

313
00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:35,840
Speaker 1: who has just been riding the last Palmis train. Love

314
00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:39,280
Speaker 1: seeing that. Just absolutely love to see a nice, a

315
00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:42,880
Speaker 1: nice Friday afternoon win. Oh yeah for one of our

316
00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:44,560
Speaker 1: listeners that that was great to see.

317
00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:47,840
Speaker 3: There's a fact that that spot means that I've fully

318
00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:49,600
Speaker 3: lost my fast ball. I sent this to I send

319
00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,200
Speaker 3: this to Avery uh Zeramn our soccer editor, and BJ

320
00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:54,360
Speaker 3: I've just lost my fast ball. To not have money

321
00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:57,960
Speaker 3: on Palmis on Friday, Uh yeah, would have lost three.

322
00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:00,560
Speaker 1: Now we could have told you that during the Tennis

323
00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:05,920
Speaker 1: US Open watching it, watch you to handicap that the

324
00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:09,000
Speaker 1: Athletti chain keeps rolling despite the loss. They are minus

325
00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:13,400
Speaker 1: three thirty four favorites hosting Celtic, who are coming in

326
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:16,280
Speaker 1: at nine to one. The draw is plus four fifty.

327
00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:20,440
Speaker 1: I love Diego Simeoni, but you will not find me

328
00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,440
Speaker 1: playing this kind of number. I'd actually be a little

329
00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:25,680
Speaker 1: tempted by Celtic here. Jay.

330
00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:28,320
Speaker 5: You know, I thought he didn't really create much outside

331
00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:30,040
Speaker 5: of the penalty in the follow up. You know, the

332
00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:32,160
Speaker 5: second goal from Maratta was a big scoring chance, but

333
00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:35,640
Speaker 5: outside of that they had one or two chances with

334
00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:39,280
Speaker 5: the next year rating over point one. I thought Brenton

335
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:43,320
Speaker 5: Rodgers had a good game plan. You know, they obviously

336
00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:46,920
Speaker 5: scored on in the fourth minute to put themselves ahead,

337
00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:48,760
Speaker 5: but then I thought he just kind of does what

338
00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:54,080
Speaker 5: they do. It's an interesting matchup from a price perspective.

339
00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:59,040
Speaker 5: You know, ATHLETTI close at about even money against Celtic

340
00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:01,480
Speaker 5: in that first leg, So if you were to just

341
00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:06,320
Speaker 5: flip home field, there is a little bit of value

342
00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:08,439
Speaker 5: on Celtic here like that. You can't tell me that

343
00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:12,200
Speaker 5: home field is going to be worth essentially one hundred

344
00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:14,840
Speaker 5: and fifty points in the Champions League is what we're

345
00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:16,480
Speaker 5: talking about right now, or one hundred and twenty whatever

346
00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:18,960
Speaker 5: it is right now. So yeah, I did project a

347
00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:22,160
Speaker 5: little bit of value on Celtic. You know, they press

348
00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:24,280
Speaker 5: well out of possession. Athletic's trying to be more possession

349
00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:27,560
Speaker 5: dominant side right now with this new style that Simeoni's playing,

350
00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:29,960
Speaker 5: so Celtic could cause some problems here on the road.

351
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:31,720
Speaker 3: I mean, this is the build your courage play of

352
00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:34,359
Speaker 3: the week Part two. Last time was I got to

353
00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,120
Speaker 3: find the courage to get the Celtic plus a half

354
00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:39,760
Speaker 3: at home. And I think that there's certainly an interesting underdog,

355
00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:44,119
Speaker 3: probably my favorite like Tuesday underdog on the board if

356
00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:46,040
Speaker 3: you wanted to find one, but yeah, probably gonna end

357
00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:48,960
Speaker 3: upassing here. Take my money from last last time and run.

358
00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:51,880
Speaker 1: And run right to Lazio and fayonoid. That's where you're

359
00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:55,680
Speaker 1: running too. My actual team, you're going to win the group. Potentially,

360
00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:59,800
Speaker 1: we'll see Lazio's plus one fifty five, so very slight

361
00:17:59,840 --> 00:18:04,560
Speaker 1: home favorite. Here we the Nord plus one seventy and

362
00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,640
Speaker 1: the draw is plus two forty for this match. Obviously,

363
00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:10,960
Speaker 1: these odds and all the other odds inciting are from

364
00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:14,679
Speaker 1: our friends at bet three sixty five. Yeah, so this

365
00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:17,840
Speaker 1: group it's it's is it the most It's up there

366
00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,560
Speaker 1: with the most interesting like the way it's it's situated.

367
00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:23,400
Speaker 1: I think fine Ord at the top on six points,

368
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:27,360
Speaker 1: our boys at Letty on five, and then there's Lots

369
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,680
Speaker 1: here at four and the Celtic they're still not done either.

370
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:34,439
Speaker 1: They're in a must win spot at the Wanda Metropolitano.

371
00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:38,320
Speaker 1: On one point, I think that if you listened to

372
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,919
Speaker 1: our preview pod and you saw that this was the

373
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,920
Speaker 1: two step match, the same two teams playing each other

374
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:49,000
Speaker 1: back to back, you could have probably surmised that Anthony

375
00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,160
Speaker 1: would be leading the charge here on back to bat

376
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:52,840
Speaker 1: bets on on the Dutch.

377
00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:56,040
Speaker 3: Well, I will say the market has taken notice, m okay,

378
00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:59,000
Speaker 3: the Nord put people on notice, and there has been

379
00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,439
Speaker 3: attention paid with their finally respect for the NORD. You know,

380
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:04,879
Speaker 3: we closed plus one at Letti, we closed minus one

381
00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:07,440
Speaker 3: ten at home against Lotzio, beat the brakes off them.

382
00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:10,360
Speaker 3: I know what the final XG said, like final LIKEG

383
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,520
Speaker 3: said that Lotzio was about even with fine Ord. But

384
00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:14,840
Speaker 3: if you go through how that game played, it was

385
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,160
Speaker 3: Fineord beat the shit out of them for sixty five

386
00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:19,240
Speaker 3: minutes and then Loatzio created all of their chances once

387
00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 3: they were down two three goals and got a consolation goal.

388
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:26,920
Speaker 3: They didn't really mean anything. Now the market has corrected,

389
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:29,280
Speaker 3: because if you just flipped home a field from the

390
00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:33,240
Speaker 3: minus one ten closed two weeks ago in Rotterdam, then

391
00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:36,040
Speaker 3: Latzio would be a home favorite. Here they are not.

392
00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:38,000
Speaker 3: They are now pick them. So the market has downgraded

393
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,000
Speaker 3: Lotsio and upgraded Fininord. I still don't know that it's

394
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:44,920
Speaker 3: gone far enough. I think Fininord is a clearly better team.

395
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:47,199
Speaker 3: So if you were to bet this it would be

396
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:48,880
Speaker 3: it would be Fine Order nothing again. I mean we

397
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:51,920
Speaker 3: we've talked about this team time and time again. What

398
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:56,200
Speaker 3: they did to Latsio wasn't rocket science. I mean, Lotzio

399
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,359
Speaker 3: plays in Siria where nobody presses anymore, and they were

400
00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:02,280
Speaker 3: completely over whelmed by fine oid in the midfield, and

401
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:04,840
Speaker 3: they were not able to keep possession and recycle the ball.

402
00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:07,800
Speaker 3: Luis Alberto is used to a lot of time on

403
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 3: the ball in Syria because he doesn't get pressed. He

404
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,040
Speaker 3: had no time to do much of anything. Uh I

405
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:14,600
Speaker 3: mobile a is fit. It looks like Costianos has been

406
00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:18,160
Speaker 3: playing really well for them. You know that's encouraging, But again,

407
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 3: like lots of this week at Bologna, totally flat poor

408
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:24,880
Speaker 3: against Fiorentina, Like there's nothing in this team that suggests

409
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:27,440
Speaker 3: they're any good. So I would ride with the Nord

410
00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 3: Boys one more time. We the Nord Actually I shouldn't

411
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:32,879
Speaker 3: say one more time, because there's gonna be multiple more

412
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:36,120
Speaker 3: times if if things go as I think.

413
00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:40,439
Speaker 5: I know, you have a date circle in in in

414
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 5: Ruh in Rotterdam, in from Spain with a certain team

415
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 5: from Spain coming to town.

416
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,440
Speaker 3: My my, my marketing sense is telling me that we

417
00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:52,639
Speaker 3: are going to be a home underdog in that match.

418
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 4: And I haven't seen.

419
00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,399
Speaker 3: But two weeks from now, three weeks from now, you

420
00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:03,200
Speaker 3: can pencil that in. I mean, we're gonna be a

421
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:04,960
Speaker 3: home under dog to ad Letico Madrid. It's going to

422
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 3: be really fun.

423
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:10,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, I agree. I mean, what's you have a lot

424
00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:11,960
Speaker 5: of times when we have these back to back matches,

425
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 5: you have to ask yourself, Okay, what's going to change

426
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,320
Speaker 5: this time around for me to essentially bet the other

427
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 5: side or for the other side to have a some success.

428
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:24,680
Speaker 5: We know what sorry ball is. It's not transitional over

429
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,679
Speaker 5: the top ball. It is put the ball on the

430
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 5: floor and let's try to work our way around presses,

431
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:31,400
Speaker 5: try to bait the press in and try to play

432
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,440
Speaker 5: through that. And like Anthony mentioned, nobody presses in Syria

433
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,359
Speaker 5: Auti mar at least to the intensity that Fineord comes with.

434
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 5: I mean Slot, Arnie Slot's press is just all out

435
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 5: in your face all the time. And Latsia was not

436
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:43,480
Speaker 5: ready for it, and I don't think they're gonna be

437
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 5: ready for it again.

438
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 1: You know.

439
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,680
Speaker 5: Fine Art did have a little slip up in the

440
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 5: area to v say, the lost to twenty who's having

441
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 5: a meteorc rise this season, But they came back and

442
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 5: put four x G on the weekend, so so they're back.

443
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 5: They're fine. They're obviously so much better with Jim Andez

444
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 5: in there, like he was just he was awesome against Latzio.

445
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 5: So yeah, I don't think the market I agree with that,

446
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 5: you know, think the market's gone far enough here. I

447
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 5: think Fine Ords should be a road favorite against Lasio.

448
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 3: The thing about fine Ord, if you have quality passes

449
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 3: in your midfield, they can play through a press. This

450
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,159
Speaker 3: defense can get exposed very fast and we've seen that.

451
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 3: But even Roma like last year and the Ropa League

452
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,879
Speaker 3: did that to them to a lesser extent. But if

453
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 3: your plan is just play route one football, which but

454
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 3: I think Latsio is gonna have to do, it's just

455
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 3: not gonna be affected against.

456
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:33,920
Speaker 5: The team how they're built, like, it's just not they're

457
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:34,880
Speaker 5: not it's not. Their game.

458
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 3: Is keep the possession, long drawn out sequences and they're

459
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:43,120
Speaker 3: just not that comfortable to I mean, like a mobile

460
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:46,199
Speaker 3: legs can run the channels. I don't think so. So

461
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 3: Uh yeah, I'm I'm loving the Nord here.

462
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 1: All right, that's three of us on Fine rd on

463
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:54,920
Speaker 1: the road. I want to see where this goes to

464
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 1: this line? Uh could could we see some late steam

465
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 1: on fine and or didn't? It feels like everybody hates Latzio,

466
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:08,399
Speaker 1: so wouldn't be surprised. The last three games on Tuesday

467
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 1: are tough, so well, let's breeze through them pretty quickly together.

468
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 1: Red Star is hosting Leipzig Red Stars plus four fifty

469
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 1: at home Leipzig minus one eighty eight, the draws plus

470
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 1: three fifty, then fourth though minus two seventy five against Antwerp,

471
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,119
Speaker 1: but plus seven fifty on the road and the draws

472
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:27,200
Speaker 1: four to one. There, City man, City baby, who could

473
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:30,160
Speaker 1: have seen this one coming? They're starting to score goals

474
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 1: minus fourteen hundred against young boys who are twenty five

475
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 1: to one, not even close, twenty five to one on

476
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,159
Speaker 1: the London fifty. They don't have a conversation.

477
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:45,440
Speaker 3: I mean Red Star boys or Belgrade Belgrade.

478
00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 5: I mean Belgrade was a home favorite against them, like

479
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 5: it's and they closed it for are they closed it

480
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 5: around forty what I guess wasn't closed, but they opened

481
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:54,959
Speaker 5: around forty to one Red Star did It's now we're

482
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 5: only twenty five on young boys. I mean, come on,

483
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 5: what are we doing here?

484
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 4: I mean the only three in Switzerland, the only.

485
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 3: The only, the only match of those two that I

486
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:08,880
Speaker 3: would even consider is you know, watch the status of Holland.

487
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 3: Right he comes off you know, it wasn't quite right

488
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 3: in the win against Bournemouth, picked up a knock.

489
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:15,359
Speaker 2: Uh.

490
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 1: You know, I can't see him playing. I mean, these

491
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 1: guys do funky, spunky stuff, but he's he shouldn't be playing.

492
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:22,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think they need him to beat the

493
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 3: young boys who gave up four expected goals in the

494
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 3: last meeting. But I'm intrigued by Belgrade. I'm intrigued by.

495
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:33,400
Speaker 4: Thought.

496
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 3: Leipzig's performance at the weekend was shocking. I watched every

497
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,679
Speaker 3: minute of that match. It was the the underperformer mines.

498
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 3: You know, a team that's had the worst luck versus

499
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:45,679
Speaker 3: the luckiest team in Germany and Leipzig, and like so

500
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:48,160
Speaker 3: many of their attacks broke down before the penalty box.

501
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 3: It wasn't like they were constantly putting pressure on the

502
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 3: in the minds penalty area. It was everything was breaking

503
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:56,439
Speaker 3: down before. Now the midfield is worse here, so I

504
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,200
Speaker 3: do think Belgrade's going to be up against it. Their

505
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 3: defensive numbers have not held up in this whatsoever. But

506
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 3: this Leipzig team is vulnerable. So if you wanted to

507
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 3: get crazy, you know, you could look at like a

508
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 3: first half team total. I wouldn't hate a first half

509
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 3: team total under on Leipzig, like something something more derivative

510
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,199
Speaker 3: as opposed to just taking the plus one, you know,

511
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 3: team to score first, Red Star bell Grade. Something of

512
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 3: that nature I think is the best way to play this,

513
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 3: because I just don't think.

514
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 1: That. What about you BJ Yeah cityv Red Star score first.

515
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:34,679
Speaker 5: Yeah. I'll mention Porto and Antwerp. You know, the Portal

516
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 5: won this match three to one, but there was only

517
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 5: two expected goals created in the first one. And really

518
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 5: what happened was Antwerp. You know, when they're playing in Belgium,

519
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 5: they are a build out of the back team, a

520
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 5: very possessioned, dominant team, and they kept trying to do

521
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:49,679
Speaker 5: that and Porto just played a mid block and they

522
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 5: just kept turning them over. So I think the second

523
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 5: leg around here you'll see them play more root one football.

524
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 5: Antwerp actually a very good defense in Belgium this season.

525
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 5: They've had some bad penalty luck. They've already conceded five

526
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 5: penalties domestically, but only allowing point eight to four non

527
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 5: penalty per ninety in Belgium. And obviously Porto's defensive numbers

528
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 5: in Portugal fantastic, and really the first two goals of

529
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 5: this match came off to flections, so that, obviously, you know,

530
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,919
Speaker 5: is a low quality chance. And with Antwerp scoring first,

531
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 5: obviously the game state it changes the perspective of it

532
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 5: because Porto had to be more aggressive and come out

533
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 5: and press, whereas if Portal were scored first they could

534
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 5: have just sat back and just saw in this match

535
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:32,640
Speaker 5: out won nothing and Antwerp wouldn't even sniff their goal.

536
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 5: So under two and a half is at plus one fifteen.

537
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 5: I believe the first leg it closed around minus one ten,

538
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:39,639
Speaker 5: so I think you're just getting a little bit of

539
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 5: inflated price on what happened in that first leg, even

540
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 5: though again not a lot of high quality for chances

541
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 5: were created from an expected goal standpoint.

542
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 1: Onto Wednesday now Wednesday is I think this is great.

543
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,359
Speaker 1: It gonna be quite fun. And the party gets started

544
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:01,920
Speaker 1: at twelve forty five pm and we'll go until the

545
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:06,679
Speaker 1: late afternoon. We'll start with Byron and Galatasaraye. Boy do

546
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 1: we love this team? Byron? We don't love this team.

547
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 1: Ruined ruined the underdog parlay which once again hit two

548
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: out of three. This time we didn't have a crushing

549
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:20,399
Speaker 1: come from behind defeat we just had Byron what we

550
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 1: had with.

551
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 5: Him, a wonderful moment, wonderful moment at Sheffield ninety ninth

552
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 5: minute penalty, only for Byron to come out and truck

553
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:28,960
Speaker 5: him in the first ten minutes.

554
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, it sucked. And then obviously Forest takes care of Yeah.

555
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 1: On Sunday in me as well. Never in doubt, but

556
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:43,959
Speaker 1: Byron's minus four fifty hosting our boys from Istanbul who

557
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 1: are eleven to one here and the draw is six

558
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 1: to one. I'm gonna be on the tried and true

559
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 1: money line here from the conqueror of Europe. Everybody in

560
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 1: this group is playing high event like every match is

561
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,679
Speaker 1: kind of been bonkers. Byron's had fourteen total goals in

562
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 1: their three matches, obviously the Lion's share scored by them

563
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 1: nine four still five against Galatasarai six goals for seven

564
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 1: against for thirteen, Man United six goals for seven against

565
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 1: for thirteen and Copenhagen, believe it or not, have been

566
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:26,160
Speaker 1: the lowest event with eight goals total three four five

567
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 1: against in their three matches. And this group is sitting

568
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 1: quite nicely for the for the stretch here. Byron's at

569
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 1: the top of the table. Three o n oh and

570
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 1: nine points, then Galatasarai at four points, just ahead of

571
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 1: United who are on three, and then Copenhagen is still

572
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 1: very much alive on one point. But I think what

573
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 1: we've learned from this about this Galatasarai team is just

574
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 1: their game. Like they they have a lot of guys

575
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 1: who are just past their salad days for in terms

576
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 1: of like a long, grueling Mere League, Bundesliga plus Champions

577
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 1: League season, like this team probably doesn't hold up, but

578
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: in their situation, like these guys can beat anybody on

579
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 1: their night. They they're almost like a one of those

580
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 1: like barn storming testimonial teams like World All Stars coming

581
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 1: to Yeah, our Globe Trotters, uh Coving, Coving, they come

582
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,720
Speaker 1: in to town. They you play them right before the

583
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 1: season starts. It's a testimonial match or something, and it's

584
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 1: it's it sounds tongue in cheek, but it's true. Like

585
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 1: these guys they're good enough. They're just flat out good

586
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 1: enough to give anybody a game. And I think eleven

587
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 1: to one is it's so much fun. This is I

588
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 1: think as good an eleven to one underdog as you're

589
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 1: gonna find all year in the Champions League or maybe

590
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 1: in soccer generally like it's it's this team is way

591
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 1: too good to be this high.

592
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 3: I mean, I mean, think about this. We were just talking,

593
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 3: you know, Lootontown heartbreak if you had their money line.

594
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 3: I know BJ took some like would you rather bet

595
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 3: Luton Town at twelve to one or Galatasaraye? Yeah, right,

596
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 3: the answer is wellet of course, But yeah, I like

597
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 3: galla first half money line seven to one more than

598
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 3: the full game because I think there was evidence that

599
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 3: they ran out of gas in the seventieth ish minute,

600
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 3: seventy fifth minute and then as space has opened up

601
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 3: and Byron goes to their reserves like they're still just

602
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 3: as good, and then galataster I went to the bench

603
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 3: and it wasn't as good. Bayern took control a little bit,

604
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 3: but like, let's not sugarcoat what happened in the first leg.

605
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 3: And I tweeted at halftime of what a joke that

606
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 3: line was, and that was one of the worst lines

607
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:31,239
Speaker 3: you'll see all year. And look, that doesn't mean it's

608
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 3: gonna win, but Galatasi catching a goal and a half

609
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 3: at home in that match was ridiculous. And if you

610
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 3: go through the expected goals, the shot chances. Galataster I

611
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:46,320
Speaker 3: finished the game with two point seven expected goals a

612
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 3: Cardi could have scored three in the first half. The

613
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 3: first half was a complete one way traffic for Gala

614
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 3: total shots sixteen to three, sixteen to three in the

615
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 3: first half of the game.

616
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 4: It's un believable.

617
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 3: But then again, you know Byron takes the last nine

618
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 3: of the match, so and then of course Gallas score

619
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 3: is a consolation goal gets called off for var When

620
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 3: you think about how this match works, right like Byron,

621
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 3: it's gonna be very open and back and forth. And

622
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 3: we just saw them play dormant and beat them shit

623
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 3: out of Dortmann, and they're certainly capable of doing that.

624
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 3: But based on what we saw in the first leg

625
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 3: and what we saw against Copenhagen, like this success in

626
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 3: Germany has not translated to the Champions League yet and

627
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 3: they cost me money this weekend. I will not deny it.

628
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 3: Hand up bad bet, but I'm com back, baby, I'm back,

629
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 3: and they have not broken my spirit at all. I

630
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 3: have a vengeance against this team and I will be

631
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 3: taking plus two and first half money line. Byron cannot

632
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 3: keep getting away with this yeah.

633
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 5: I'll take it one step further. For the first hour

634
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 5: of the match, the shots were nineteen to five, and

635
00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 5: of those nineteen shots, thirteen of them came into the

636
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 5: penalty area. So it wasn't like just Galatasar was just

637
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 5: taking shots from nowhere. It was everything was inside the box,

638
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 5: high quality chances, three of them inside the six yard bucks.

639
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 5: But of course the only goal they can score is

640
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 5: from a penalty. Now, what I found very interesting from

641
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 5: a tactical perspective of what Galatasar was able to do

642
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 5: successfully and what they can repeat in Munich is you know,

643
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 5: Biern is obviously a possession dominant side, so they are

644
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 5: not used to having, you know, playing out of possession

645
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 5: for large stretches, which is what happened in the matchkins Turkey.

646
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 5: Now that's not saying it's going to happen here, but

647
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 5: what they kept doing is they were just playing so

648
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 5: incredibly wide because Byron was very very narrow. They were like,

649
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 5: we're not playing through the middle of the pitch, and

650
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 5: once we win the ball, obviously, what does Byron want

651
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 5: to do? They want to play right through the middle

652
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 5: root one and score their chances in transition that way,

653
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 5: that's what they did Dortmann this weekend. Galatasar I was

654
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 5: trying to get two v ones out wide, and then

655
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 5: once they got the ball out wide and they started

656
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 5: to stretch Byron out and forced them out of this

657
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 5: narrow mid block. They were just switching the play to

658
00:32:57,960 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 5: the other side of the field and then the fullbacks

659
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 5: were had acres of space to create a chance to

660
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 5: be across. So again you have to ask yourself, is

661
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 5: this repeatable in Munich. Well, they're gonna need a lot

662
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 5: of the ball to be able to do that. So

663
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 5: that's the where things can go wrong. If Byron controls

664
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 5: a lot of possession, then yeah, of course. But Byron

665
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:15,680
Speaker 5: also turned the ball over high quite a few times

666
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 5: against galatass Right, their counterpress was working very very well

667
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 5: in Turkey, So yeah, I mean they won the expected

668
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 5: goals battle. They outshot Byron, they outplayed them for the

669
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 5: first hour and then they tired out. You're not I

670
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 5: agree with Michael, You're not going to find a better

671
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 5: eleven to one Hunther Dog. So I like GALAXYASH five

672
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 5: plus two even just from a market perspective. I believe

673
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 5: correct me if I'm wrong, Anthony. But Byron closed at

674
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 5: minus one point twenty five on the road in that

675
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 5: first legger. I don't know, yeah so and yep, but

676
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 5: based on my projections, home field advantage is worth abouzero

677
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 5: point three to five goals in the Champions League, maybe

678
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 5: a little bit more than that. So if you are

679
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 5: just taking purely what happened from that, you know that

680
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 5: line of one point two five, and you added on me,

681
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 5: you're getting around one point six one point. It's somewhere

682
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 5: in there. There's value on Caltaster, right even if that

683
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 5: first leg went essentially according to plan from underlying metrics

684
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 5: and it didn't, they beat them, so they should get

685
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 5: a being getting a bump in the market here and

686
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 5: they're not. So galatastert plus two for me.

687
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 1: I love this team mm hm oh yeah.

688
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 3: And it's funny because look, they might not advance, but

689
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 3: four to one was the worst price in the whole group,

690
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 3: in the whole Champions lead this year to advance.

691
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:32,320
Speaker 5: That was Ridiculusma mentioned something when we get the next

692
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 5: match in the group and there might be a better

693
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 5: price on another team to advance out of the group.

694
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 1: That's looking kind of tasty right now. Yeah, Oh man,

695
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:45,960
Speaker 1: Jesus we do. We get like because because we do have,

696
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:48,839
Speaker 1: we do to lead towards betting underdogs, and that means

697
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:52,240
Speaker 1: we bet bad teams all the time. And it's almost

698
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 1: like we were trying to convince ourselves to do it,

699
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 1: because it does take some kind of gumption to bet

700
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:02,400
Speaker 1: teams like Sheffield United and uh even you know, I

701
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 1: know they won this week, but like a week in

702
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 1: and week out, but this team just deserves it like that.

703
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 1: They're they're easy. This is an easy one to bet

704
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:11,839
Speaker 1: on like they're they're no. It's a lot of fun

705
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:13,799
Speaker 1: to hit your bag into this team. So yeah, they

706
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,919
Speaker 1: were better. I get on board. Get on board, Galatasara.

707
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:20,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, they really took me out of the game in

708
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 3: the first Like that was what.

709
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 1: I noticed, the ball like that that draw, the draw

710
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:29,839
Speaker 1: against Copenhagen was funky. But over the course of their

711
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 1: over the over the course of the Champions League, have you,

712
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 1: I've grown more and more confident in their ability in

713
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:40,839
Speaker 1: this tournament. So as as rabble rousers up up the

714
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:42,320
Speaker 1: up the conqueror of Europe.

715
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 5: Uh.

716
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 1: Another big underdog that we like is Braga traveling to

717
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 1: the Santiago burn about to take on Madrid uh basically

718
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:57,839
Speaker 1: the same odds as Galatasara and Byron Uh. Madrid sitting

719
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 1: minus four fifty, Braga eleven to one, and the is

720
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 1: plus five fifty. Real Madrid has his habit. And I

721
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 1: know that this version of Real Madrid has nothing to

722
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:07,840
Speaker 1: do with the one four years ago, but it is

723
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 1: pretty funny that they just have this habit of losing

724
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 1: one stunner basically every Champions League and then winning the

725
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:18,879
Speaker 1: Champions League or going to the final. And this one

726
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:21,320
Speaker 1: just smells like it's going to be the one at home.

727
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:25,840
Speaker 1: Kind of a dangerous sleepy spot for them. When you

728
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 1: consider the table. They're perfect right now doing what Byron does.

729
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 1: Three wins, six goals scored, three against clear of the table.

730
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:37,879
Speaker 1: Braga can make it interesting with a win. It's Real

731
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,880
Speaker 1: Madrid on nine, Napoli on six, Braga and three, and

732
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:44,680
Speaker 1: Unyan at the foot it with zero. So it's just

733
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 1: like going according to plan and then all of a

734
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,279
Speaker 1: sudden something just funky will happen with the Madrid and

735
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:51,240
Speaker 1: this feels like it. And I know that this doesn't

736
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:54,880
Speaker 1: sound like a great handicapping angle, but you two are

737
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 1: going to back it up with numbers. BJ.

738
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:59,839
Speaker 5: Yeah, So the big talking point is Jude Billingman might

739
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,880
Speaker 5: not playing this match. He has a shoulder injury. Ancelotti

740
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 5: says he hopes he'll play on Wednesday. That's pretty massive

741
00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 5: to what we've seen from so far. Just don't play, yeah, exactly.

742
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 5: So you know, the first match, I'll say this about Braga.

743
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 5: They are a team that's good with time and space

744
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 5: on the ball, and I think you saw that with

745
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 5: how passive Real Madrid can be out of possession. I

746
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 5: thought they created a lot of good chances that way.

747
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 5: But one thing's got to change for Braga, and I'm

748
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 5: I'm guessing it was because of the game state, because

749
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 5: they fell behind in the first fifteen minutes. You know,

750
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 5: Venetius cooked the right back for Braga and like that.

751
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:40,840
Speaker 5: That just happens when you're betting these type of underdogs.

752
00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 5: But they were playing a really high line against Real Madrid,

753
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,360
Speaker 5: which is very, very dangerous thing to do against Rodrigo

754
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 5: and Venetius, and they they got a couple off sides

755
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 5: off of it, but it's it was incredibly risky, and

756
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 5: I mean they're obviously doing that because they wanted to

757
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 5: get back into the game. They wanted to apply pressure

758
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,239
Speaker 5: on Real Madrid when they had them in their own

759
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 5: final third. Now now that we're going to the Burnabout,

760
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 5: I think you'll see a different game plan from Braga,

761
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 5: one that's more low blockie not as aggressive, you know,

762
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 5: obviously depending on game state or what happens. But listen,

763
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:12,879
Speaker 5: they won the expected goals medal in this first leg

764
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 5: in Braga. It was one point five too point nine. Essentially,

765
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:19,400
Speaker 5: you know, the first cross that goes in, uh, you know,

766
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 5: is the one big, essentially big chance that Real Madrid's

767
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:24,880
Speaker 5: you know, creates, and then outside of that, it was

768
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:27,440
Speaker 5: just kind of a bunch of shots from from distance.

769
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:30,279
Speaker 5: You know, Bellingham scores from you know, right on the

770
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 5: edge of the eighteen yard box. It's just what he does.

771
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 5: But if he doesn't play when chium Many is also

772
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 5: out either Chimni is also out for Real Madrid, say,

773
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 5: not an ideal scenario because now you have to ask

774
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 5: the question of what does Real Madrid do, because now

775
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:48,920
Speaker 5: they've switched their formation to this four to three one

776
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 5: two with Bellingham as a box invading striker. So now

777
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 5: it's gonna be a just salo up top and it's

778
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 5: gonna be your traditional four three three, which if you're

779
00:38:56,920 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 5: gonna play a four to four to two low block,

780
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:01,359
Speaker 5: which is what Braga can play. You're asking, you're asking

781
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:03,360
Speaker 5: a lot of questions from this Real Madrid attack. So

782
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 5: Braga plus two at minus one thirty right now, Belliam

783
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 5: doesn't play. I don't see how Braga doesn't close a

784
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:13,399
Speaker 5: plus one and a half here. I think he's worth

785
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:16,799
Speaker 5: that much to this. So Braga of this, and they

786
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 5: will be. I forgot to mention this with with Galatasaraye,

787
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 5: but we're Michael, We're just going to do a nice

788
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 5: little underdog parlay. We don't have to each do one

789
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 5: this week, but at least I'll be doing it. It's

790
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 5: going to include galatas Raye Braga and then one more

791
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 5: team we're going to talk about and maybe I'll make

792
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 5: a graphic for it and tweet it out. Who knows,

793
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:41,799
Speaker 5: but it's it's going to pay probably our biggest price ever.

794
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 4: Man Anthony bj mentioned it, and I agree.

795
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:50,319
Speaker 3: Real Madrid's lack of a press made it very easy

796
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 3: for Braga to play their way into the game, and

797
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 3: I think that's the key here. Real Madrid right now,

798
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 3: with the way that they're playing defensively, leaky is making

799
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 3: them a more of aulnerable favorite the normal and they

800
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:03,800
Speaker 3: win every game in the last minute. Today it was

801
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 3: hilarious and stoppage time, the ref was just saying, no, no,

802
00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:08,960
Speaker 3: We're just gonna keep playing until Madrid goes up one nil,

803
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 3: and then eventually he was like, well, we're already like

804
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:13,239
Speaker 3: three minutes past alloted time, so I got to call

805
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:13,799
Speaker 3: the game now.

806
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:14,760
Speaker 4: But it was insane.

807
00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 3: I mean, they were giving him every chance to score.

808
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 3: H Veneties Junior has taken a step back. If you

809
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:23,600
Speaker 3: look at his production numbers this year, they're down, and

810
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:25,319
Speaker 3: I know there's some there's been some off the field

811
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 3: stuff with him and and the people of Spain have

812
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 3: been have been rather racist toward him, and so you

813
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 3: know there's a lot of stuff going off going on

814
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:35,960
Speaker 3: off the field that's that's impacting Veneties. But his numbers

815
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 3: are like way down. There was also an injury. You know,

816
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 3: his shot quality has fallen off this season. So I'm

817
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 3: a little bit concerned about what happens when Bellingham stopped

818
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 3: scoring every match, which will happen at some point. That

819
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 3: being said, agree, Braga Real Madrid is conceded. They lasked

820
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:58,879
Speaker 3: six matches one point six one point nine point five

821
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:00,919
Speaker 3: one point five one point five to one point five

822
00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 3: expected goals against you know, some decent competition Barsa, Sevilla, Braga, Napoli, Girona,

823
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 3: oh Sosuna. But every decent team they've played this season,

824
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 3: from Vigo to sociadd to Atletti, has created well over

825
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 3: one expected goal and it's very hard, very very hard

826
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 3: to cover two when you're l when you're when you're

827
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:26,439
Speaker 3: giving up that much possession, that much quality and you're

828
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:30,440
Speaker 3: not pressing and and just smushing teams. So yeah, Broga

829
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 3: for me.

830
00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, Bruma. Bruma also didn't start in this last match

831
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:39,240
Speaker 5: against Real Madrid. He's obviously their most important, impactful attacking player,

832
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 5: so I'd like to see him start and have more

833
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:44,279
Speaker 5: of an impact and along the wings. But uh yeah.

834
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 5: One thing also about brag and I'll mention it is

835
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:50,280
Speaker 5: just that you know, Arsenal's now a ball circulation team.

836
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 5: That's what That's what Braga does in the Portuguese League.

837
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 5: They just circulate the ball around the the eighteen yard

838
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 5: box and look for chances that way. So if you're

839
00:41:57,080 --> 00:41:59,440
Speaker 5: playing a team that's passed like Real Madrid, that style

840
00:41:59,480 --> 00:41:59,879
Speaker 5: can work.

841
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:04,600
Speaker 1: Another La Liga team now, sociodd is minus one ten

842
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 1: at home hosting Benfica, who are plus three hundred, and

843
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:11,839
Speaker 1: the draw here is plus two to sixty. I think

844
00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:15,680
Speaker 1: it's pretty fair to put Benfica on corpse watch, which

845
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:19,719
Speaker 1: is a term borrow from our colleagues stucky from the

846
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:22,799
Speaker 1: BBOC podcast when it comes to college football teams that

847
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 1: are just kind of playing out their schedule, and that

848
00:42:26,840 --> 00:42:28,840
Speaker 1: I think kind of matters here with especially with the

849
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 1: way Sociodad has been playing. They've allowed one goal so

850
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 1: far in the Champions League. They've looked terrific and they're

851
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:41,279
Speaker 1: just executing their game plan and it's working. And this

852
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 1: Benfica team, as we pointed out, just isn't all that

853
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 1: good compared to what we saw last year. It does

854
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 1: seem the price is a little inflated, obviously an upgrades

855
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:59,840
Speaker 1: and downgrade situation here, but still, Anthony, a little bit

856
00:42:59,880 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 1: of value on the team from the Basque country.

857
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:06,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not totally convinced the markets adjusted, right. You

858
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 3: go back and look at the game they played against

859
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 3: Barsa today. They were very good Saturday. Rather, you know,

860
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 3: you expect their full lineup here, which is big for them.

861
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:18,279
Speaker 3: Like I said on the two weeks ago, like if

862
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 3: they they don't attack with a lot of numbers, so

863
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 3: who they have available is important. The match against Benfica

864
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:27,359
Speaker 3: at Benfica, they pretty much just smushed them and gave

865
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 3: them nothing in terms of quality chances. Benfica finished the

866
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 3: game with ten shots and point four eight expected goals.

867
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:37,440
Speaker 3: So it was really bad at home. Now they go

868
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 3: on the road. I've got the better team. I'm at

869
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:41,600
Speaker 3: home and I only have to lay minus one ten.

870
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:44,360
Speaker 3: I'm gonna bet Soci dot again. I bet Benfica against

871
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:47,440
Speaker 3: Benfica every match in this in this tournament, and I'm

872
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:49,799
Speaker 3: gonna make it four. It might be the last time

873
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:52,279
Speaker 3: we get to fade them though, because they're gonna be

874
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 3: really really cheap against Inter in the next match, I think,

875
00:43:57,440 --> 00:43:59,919
Speaker 3: so that could be an interesting like dead cat bounce spot.

876
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 3: But this is a fade for me again with Soci

877
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:04,040
Speaker 3: DoD moneyline at home.

878
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 1: All right, BJ, let's talk about that ball circulation team

879
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 1: from North London. Now, our Sols minus thirty thirty four

880
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 1: hosting Savia nine to one and the draws plus four fifty.

881
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:16,880
Speaker 1: What do you got for us?

882
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 5: Well, you know, Michael, I try to be a goal.

883
00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:23,800
Speaker 4: Don't ask me why it's not a goal.

884
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 5: I it's I don't really care. I'll be honest. We

885
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 5: got to create better chances. Mikel or Town needs to

886
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:33,000
Speaker 5: shut up, okay, because we have to create more than

887
00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 5: one expected goal. For you to complain about that decision

888
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:38,719
Speaker 5: going against us, Yeah, I watched it back and I

889
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:41,280
Speaker 5: was like, yeah, maybe it was a push, like maybe whatever,

890
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 5: but like we got to create more chances, like we can't.

891
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:45,319
Speaker 5: Just like I get it if we created like two

892
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 5: x G and the ball just didn't go in and

893
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:48,759
Speaker 5: that was one fluke thing they had, Like that's great,

894
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:51,439
Speaker 5: but like it was a very back and forth match,

895
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:53,320
Speaker 5: and for him to just complain like that, like, dude,

896
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 5: play the ball through the middle of the pitch, like,

897
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 5: for the love of God, Like we cannot do anything

898
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:01,880
Speaker 5: through the middle. We're just circulating the ball back and

899
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:02,920
Speaker 5: forth to nothing.

900
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 1: Oh.

901
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 5: I try to come on this podcast and I try

902
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:08,239
Speaker 5: to give the positive spin. I try to be the

903
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:11,120
Speaker 5: fan this say no, no, no, everything's fine, everything's fine, it's okay,

904
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 5: it's okay. But I can't come out here and do

905
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:17,520
Speaker 5: that anymore. It's just it's terrible. It sucks. I can't

906
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:19,320
Speaker 5: lay minus four and a half against the Villa. We

907
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 5: got the win against them. I won my I won

908
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,319
Speaker 5: my super Bowl in Spain. I'm not laying minus one

909
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:27,920
Speaker 5: and a half here. It just sucks like we just I'm.

910
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 1: Not kidding when I say it. I think this is

911
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:31,520
Speaker 1: a decent zero bet.

912
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 5: But there's so been to be so bad defensively, it's

913
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:35,839
Speaker 5: really really bad.

914
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:40,160
Speaker 4: I mean, they got but they dropped my vegans.

915
00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:43,719
Speaker 5: I got luck box into a red card and it

916
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 5: ended up drawing.

917
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:47,239
Speaker 1: But it's sixteen to one noil mil.

918
00:45:48,280 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 4: That's actually not bad DJ.

919
00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 3: What's worse Arsenal offense or Iowa offense.

920
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:58,080
Speaker 5: You know, here's what I'll say about that. I know

921
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:00,200
Speaker 5: what to expect from the Iowa offense, and that's no

922
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 5: offensive touchdowns. Have already accepted that, and that's just a

923
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:07,400
Speaker 5: reality of my life. I did not expect this from Marsenal,

924
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 5: So it's more painful to watch from Marsenal at this

925
00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:13,360
Speaker 5: it's juncture, and it only happens against good defensive teams

926
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 5: like they have been good against bad teams. They have

927
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:20,880
Speaker 5: been able to get margin against them. But my god,

928
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 5: just like I I saw the graphic that in terms

929
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:27,440
Speaker 5: of chances created by location on the pitch. Arsenal's dead

930
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 5: last in the Premier League through the central part of

931
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:32,239
Speaker 5: the pitch Like that is incredibly embarrassing, Like you have

932
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 5: to be able to play through the center of the

933
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 5: pitch if you're going to be a title challenger, quite frankly,

934
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 5: because that's where the goals are.

935
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:41,000
Speaker 3: The biggest difference between this week and two weeks ago

936
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:44,239
Speaker 3: is that Gabrielle Jesus will not be suiting up for

937
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:47,759
Speaker 3: the Gunners and he did the two goals, so you know,

938
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:51,400
Speaker 3: and or nail Way his pass through the center of

939
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:57,040
Speaker 3: the pitch sent Martinelli in behind. So I'm close on Sevilla.

940
00:46:57,000 --> 00:47:00,399
Speaker 5: Problem and goal. Yeah, I tweeted out a GOALOK pass

941
00:47:00,440 --> 00:47:03,800
Speaker 5: map from Arsenal Newcastle. It's just like it's the quintessential

942
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:08,600
Speaker 5: poster of ball circulations. Just passes back and forth outside

943
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:12,080
Speaker 5: these eighteen yard box, that's it. So I'm just I'm

944
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:15,399
Speaker 5: frustrated because our manager is focusing too much on one

945
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 5: decision when the reality is he sees there's too much

946
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:22,200
Speaker 5: game control and he's not taking very many chances, and

947
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 5: that is annoying to me as someone who likes to

948
00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 5: take a lot of chances.

949
00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 1: All right, let's cruise through a couple of these ones

950
00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 1: before I want to close with what I think is

951
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 1: going to be our favorite match, maybe to Bet on Wednesday.

952
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:40,480
Speaker 1: So let's cruise through some of the other ones. Salsburg

953
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:44,799
Speaker 1: or plus four fifty hosting Inter enters minus one sixty three.

954
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 1: The jaw is three to one. Any I think that

955
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:55,160
Speaker 1: the Salsburg team still profiles decently as an underdog, especially

956
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:58,200
Speaker 1: at home, but that loan win looks a lot worse

957
00:47:58,239 --> 00:48:01,319
Speaker 1: now with the way that Benfica playing. So I don't

958
00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:02,600
Speaker 1: think that this number is big.

959
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:07,280
Speaker 3: Largely competitive against Inter. They weren't competitive against Socio DoD

960
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:09,759
Speaker 3: like you said. They got the nice win at Benfica,

961
00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 3: but they have not played well in this group and

962
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:13,480
Speaker 3: like this just looks like a worst version of Sociododd

963
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:16,879
Speaker 3: or of Salzburg. We said before the group, like we'll

964
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:19,800
Speaker 3: find out how good are these young guys, And they're okay,

965
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:23,359
Speaker 3: not a bad team, but they're they're not anywhere where

966
00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:24,920
Speaker 3: I would look to back them here in this spot.

967
00:48:25,360 --> 00:48:28,000
Speaker 3: Inter could rotate a little, that's one thing I'm a little,

968
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 3: you know, be wary of that, because they have rested

969
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:33,680
Speaker 3: tram their last road match in the Champions League when

970
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 3: they went to Socidad, they rested him. So Alexis Sanchez

971
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:39,839
Speaker 3: movie comes into the team and he's been and he's

972
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:42,560
Speaker 3: been on the pitch, he's been really good. So yeah,

973
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 3: I'm intrigued by it.

974
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 1: But yeah, no, bet BJ, we'll talk right now. PSV

975
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:53,760
Speaker 1: and Lens minus one thirty four for PSV at home.

976
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:56,400
Speaker 1: The French Sye traveling at plus three fifty in the

977
00:48:56,480 --> 00:49:01,719
Speaker 1: draw is plus three fifty. Nah, terribly interesting.

978
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, well they've taken they've taken, so PSB has taken

979
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:09,400
Speaker 5: a ton of money. Yeah, it's crazy wind spot. I

980
00:49:09,400 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 5: wonder if that's that's factoring in a little bit. But

981
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 5: they they weren't really that good in the first leg,

982
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:16,920
Speaker 5: to be honest. I mean PSV created half an expected

983
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:18,880
Speaker 5: goal like that was it, and then they obviously went ahead

984
00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 5: and kind of sat back a little bit. Len's got

985
00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:25,000
Speaker 5: the the equalizer. But yeah, I don't I don't really

986
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:28,400
Speaker 5: see from watching that match. I don't really see anything

987
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:32,319
Speaker 5: that gets me to PSV getting to this number now.

988
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:34,680
Speaker 5: I mean I only even projected PSV around even money

989
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 5: against Lens at home, so I wouldn't. I'm not going

990
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:39,560
Speaker 5: to touch the opposite side because I still am kind

991
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:41,719
Speaker 5: of downs on this Lens team. They had a very

992
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:44,120
Speaker 5: sleepy zero zero drag ands Lo Orient over the weekend,

993
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:47,759
Speaker 5: So yeah, I don't The market movement on this is

994
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 5: a little puzzling to me.

995
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:53,320
Speaker 1: I'll just say that fair enough, all right, our penultimate match,

996
00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:57,480
Speaker 1: Napoli minus two fifty, you gotta lay it against un

997
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 1: Yan plus seven one hundred and the Drust plus three

998
00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:05,080
Speaker 1: seventy five. Another easy pass, I think for me, I

999
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:05,560
Speaker 1: hope Beacha.

1000
00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:09,359
Speaker 3: You're looking at the total markets salad a lot on

1001
00:50:09,360 --> 00:50:11,840
Speaker 3: this Unan team, and I'm not sure they're that different

1002
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:12,520
Speaker 3: from last year.

1003
00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:13,560
Speaker 5: They're not.

1004
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:15,359
Speaker 3: I know, they've lost twelve in a row and it's

1005
00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 3: insane to say that. I'm not sure they're Like their

1006
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:20,839
Speaker 3: defense is obviously worse, but their attack looks the same

1007
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:23,720
Speaker 3: to me. This was the same price Real Madrid closed

1008
00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:28,280
Speaker 3: in the first match of the of this tournament Napoli

1009
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:32,799
Speaker 3: without Osa men. Probably it's like questionable here, Like that's

1010
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:36,160
Speaker 3: a little high for me. So I'm i'm I think

1011
00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:39,240
Speaker 3: I like under more because like there's no real scenario

1012
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:42,839
Speaker 3: where Unjon is piling up goals here. But I lean

1013
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:44,600
Speaker 3: toward them the dog here. I think they're a little

1014
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 3: bit intriguing to cover, maybe not win.

1015
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:51,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's hard not be lower than on a team

1016
00:50:51,560 --> 00:50:52,400
Speaker 4: by lower.

1017
00:50:52,840 --> 00:50:55,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, I like the under here. I agree with Anthony.

1018
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:59,680
Speaker 5: Nothing happened in the first match's point point zero eight

1019
00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:04,080
Speaker 5: or point eight XG created total the entire match. I mean,

1020
00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:06,920
Speaker 5: Unyan just sat deep and dared Napoley to break them down,

1021
00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:09,560
Speaker 5: and they couldn't for large stretches of the match. Again

1022
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:14,399
Speaker 5: without Oshman, what's gonna change in this leg? Obviously, game

1023
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 5: state matters, it stays zero zero for longer. That obviously

1024
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:23,560
Speaker 5: benefits Unyon Berlin. But there's an old saying, and you know, obviously,

1025
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:28,319
Speaker 5: in terms of teams overforming their underlying metrics, it's just

1026
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:30,520
Speaker 5: you cannot outrun math.

1027
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:31,759
Speaker 1: I know a lot of.

1028
00:51:31,719 --> 00:51:34,120
Speaker 5: People don't like to hear that, but it's just the

1029
00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:37,080
Speaker 5: truth of what's happened with Unyanvillin. It's obviously swung, you know,

1030
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 5: the obviously the extreme the other way. And I'm not

1031
00:51:40,680 --> 00:51:43,320
Speaker 5: sure how their manager still has his job quite frankly,

1032
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:45,080
Speaker 5: at this point. I know he's done a lot for

1033
00:51:45,120 --> 00:51:49,840
Speaker 5: them to get them to this point, but at some point, Yeah,

1034
00:51:49,960 --> 00:51:53,279
Speaker 5: so at some point, Uh, things are gonna have to

1035
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:56,120
Speaker 5: change for Unyan. Maybe won't see if the three five

1036
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:59,840
Speaker 5: two low block special anymore. But yeah, no, I I

1037
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 5: like the under two and a half at plus one

1038
00:52:01,520 --> 00:52:04,239
Speaker 5: oh four hasn't really changed from the first lag and

1039
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:08,120
Speaker 5: nothing happened so well, I'm guessing nothing's probably gonna happen

1040
00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:09,840
Speaker 5: here in the second leg. And just as I say that,

1041
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:11,120
Speaker 5: I'll probably a three two thriller.

1042
00:52:12,520 --> 00:52:15,760
Speaker 1: And that brings us to the finale for this episode,

1043
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:19,840
Speaker 1: and it's a beautiful finale. Season Season eight of Scrubs

1044
00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:25,880
Speaker 1: Level finale for US Copenhagen plus three twenty hosting Manchester United.

1045
00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:29,879
Speaker 1: We're odds on on the road in the draws plus

1046
00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:33,440
Speaker 1: two seventy five. I think this is so such a

1047
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:39,160
Speaker 1: good bet. Copenhagen doesn't mean it's gonna win, but you're

1048
00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 1: just you're just catching, you're catching this United team. Yeah,

1049
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:45,440
Speaker 1: they they beat fullam. How do they do it? I

1050
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:49,239
Speaker 1: mean the last the last time they played Copenhagen they won.

1051
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:52,600
Speaker 1: How'd they do it? Like? This is a a team

1052
00:52:52,640 --> 00:52:55,359
Speaker 1: that's like God, it's back against the wall and just

1053
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:59,120
Speaker 1: throwing haymaker after haymaking, Like it's just like they're running there.

1054
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:01,440
Speaker 1: I know, it's incredible.

1055
00:53:01,440 --> 00:53:07,799
Speaker 3: They're running unbelievably well, olayed, outplayed by Brentford, outplayed by Copenhagen,

1056
00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:11,120
Speaker 3: and they won all the games. Yeah, wore Stoppagehime goals

1057
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:13,800
Speaker 3: or three Stoppashim goals and a stoppage.

1058
00:53:13,560 --> 00:53:14,959
Speaker 4: Penny safe from a Nazi safe.

1059
00:53:15,040 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1060
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:18,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's like, wait a minute, Copenhagen, what are

1061
00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:21,360
Speaker 3: you talking? Were like, well, we like them at home,

1062
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 3: but their defense doesn't really travel. They get smoked usually

1063
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:25,960
Speaker 3: on the road. That's what usually the story of Copenhagen is.

1064
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:28,960
Speaker 3: Last year City Dortmund in the Champions League group they

1065
00:53:29,000 --> 00:53:31,040
Speaker 3: outplayed both uh there was a red card in the

1066
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 3: City game. Outplayed Dortmund at home like they were a

1067
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:37,239
Speaker 3: decent side. This year they've taken their show on the road.

1068
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:39,880
Speaker 3: They went to Galatasarai and look that result where they

1069
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:41,919
Speaker 3: they played bad in the first half but played even

1070
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 3: with Galatasarai and drew them after getting a red card.

1071
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:48,200
Speaker 3: That result is aging really well. They played Byron. You know,

1072
00:53:48,280 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 3: look I'm down on Byron, but like Byron is still

1073
00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:52,640
Speaker 3: good and they held them under one expected goal in

1074
00:53:52,680 --> 00:53:55,440
Speaker 3: that match. Then they go to this theater of dreams

1075
00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:57,960
Speaker 3: and outplay United for large stretches of that match. So

1076
00:53:58,440 --> 00:54:01,799
Speaker 3: you know, maybe you bet copenin Hagen and if you

1077
00:54:01,840 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 3: need a live hedge you grab some Scottie anytime. But

1078
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:10,160
Speaker 3: I mean, like there there's no Yeah, Matt, mattch Swimmer,

1079
00:54:10,200 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 3: friend of the pod, is going to be at the

1080
00:54:11,600 --> 00:54:14,480
Speaker 3: parking on Wednesday, and he texted me for a bet

1081
00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:19,399
Speaker 3: and I was like, Copenhagen. It's always Copenhagen. Yeah, are

1082
00:54:19,400 --> 00:54:21,560
Speaker 3: we buying a little high? Maybe because the market has

1083
00:54:21,560 --> 00:54:23,320
Speaker 3: come down. They're like minus one forty and out'sid like

1084
00:54:23,320 --> 00:54:27,160
Speaker 3: minus one fifteen. But I'm sorry that this could be

1085
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:28,080
Speaker 3: it for ten Hawks.

1086
00:54:30,239 --> 00:54:32,799
Speaker 5: I don't think this is it no, because they want

1087
00:54:33,040 --> 00:54:35,440
Speaker 5: full I think he's fine now. I think if they

1088
00:54:35,440 --> 00:54:37,879
Speaker 5: would have drawn that match and then lost this one,

1089
00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:38,719
Speaker 5: and yeah, I would have been over.

1090
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:39,279
Speaker 1: They got no.

1091
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:43,280
Speaker 5: I know who they have coming up next after this Copenhead.

1092
00:54:43,280 --> 00:54:45,719
Speaker 1: I know, yeah, They've at Luton and then Everton. Yep,

1093
00:54:46,120 --> 00:54:49,000
Speaker 1: they've got It's And that's the other thing about this

1094
00:54:49,040 --> 00:54:53,440
Speaker 1: is they had like, let's look at their United's last

1095
00:54:54,239 --> 00:55:00,440
Speaker 1: six matches across all competitions, Brentford, Sheffield United, cop Hagen

1096
00:55:00,719 --> 00:55:04,960
Speaker 1: got trounced by City. Then they got trounced by Newcastle.

1097
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:09,160
Speaker 1: Newcastle Newcastle was yeah, and I mean it was, you know,

1098
00:55:09,160 --> 00:55:11,480
Speaker 1: a changed squad for United to at home and yeah, whatever,

1099
00:55:11,520 --> 00:55:14,440
Speaker 1: it's a weird, weird EFL Cup game. And then follow

1100
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:20,000
Speaker 1: them so they've they played basically nobody. I mean, when

1101
00:55:20,000 --> 00:55:22,359
Speaker 1: you look through their schedule and a list, like, you'll

1102
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:25,960
Speaker 1: be like, okay, we remember that Wolves win, got knocked

1103
00:55:26,040 --> 00:55:29,280
Speaker 1: knocked across the face against Tottenham, lucky win against Forrest,

1104
00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:34,520
Speaker 1: pants by Arsenal, pants by Brighton, lose to Byron, beat Burnley,

1105
00:55:34,560 --> 00:55:37,200
Speaker 1: beat Crystal Palace, lose to Palace, lose to galatass or

1106
00:55:37,440 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 1: it's just like this team. It's there's no team bad

1107
00:55:40,640 --> 00:55:42,600
Speaker 1: enough in any of the competitions that they're going to

1108
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:45,239
Speaker 1: be playing. Uh, there's just no team bad enough that

1109
00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:47,880
Speaker 1: United should be a road favorite.

1110
00:55:48,239 --> 00:55:51,719
Speaker 5: No, it's and I'll tell you what about that first leg.

1111
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:54,239
Speaker 5: I mean Copenhagen punched them in the mouth right away.

1112
00:55:54,239 --> 00:55:56,480
Speaker 5: If you remember, they hit the hit the woodwork in

1113
00:55:56,520 --> 00:55:58,719
Speaker 5: the fifth minute of a huge chance that could have

1114
00:55:58,760 --> 00:56:01,680
Speaker 5: put them up one nothing. And what ended up happening

1115
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:04,160
Speaker 5: in that match is Copenhagen sat in a low block,

1116
00:56:04,200 --> 00:56:07,640
Speaker 5: which they were effective with against Bayern and effective again

1117
00:56:07,719 --> 00:56:12,160
Speaker 5: with United because United has nobody could to connect the

1118
00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:14,359
Speaker 5: play from their back three to get the ball up

1119
00:56:14,360 --> 00:56:16,920
Speaker 5: to their front line. You saw it against Fulham. They

1120
00:56:16,960 --> 00:56:18,560
Speaker 5: have no way to play through the middle of any

1121
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:22,760
Speaker 5: type of low block, and they were oftentimes against Copenhagen

1122
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:25,760
Speaker 5: where we talked about build up structures, they were trying

1123
00:56:25,800 --> 00:56:28,279
Speaker 5: to do a three to one six, but they just

1124
00:56:28,520 --> 00:56:31,120
Speaker 5: don't have anybody in that one spot who can connect it,

1125
00:56:31,200 --> 00:56:34,880
Speaker 5: nobody like you know, like a Franken Deyong or a

1126
00:56:34,920 --> 00:56:37,120
Speaker 5: Declan Rice or somebody like that. So I ended up

1127
00:56:37,160 --> 00:56:39,640
Speaker 5: being a three zero seven. They just like were just

1128
00:56:39,680 --> 00:56:42,160
Speaker 5: trying to send long balls from the back line up

1129
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:44,880
Speaker 5: to the front and just hope for the best. Rashford

1130
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:46,759
Speaker 5: missed the match against Fulham. I don't know if he's

1131
00:56:46,800 --> 00:56:49,120
Speaker 5: going to play in this one. We'll have to see.

1132
00:56:49,160 --> 00:56:51,920
Speaker 5: That's obviously a massive loss for United, who are getting

1133
00:56:52,040 --> 00:56:55,520
Speaker 5: very little production out of Hoyland right now. So what's

1134
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:58,160
Speaker 5: going to change for United in the second leg, especially

1135
00:56:58,200 --> 00:57:01,200
Speaker 5: going on the road to Copenhagen. Who's how are they

1136
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:03,160
Speaker 5: going to build up and break down this low block

1137
00:57:03,640 --> 00:57:06,239
Speaker 5: if they weren't able to do it effectively in the

1138
00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:07,879
Speaker 5: first leg. Is there's gonna have to be some more

1139
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:10,200
Speaker 5: magic like it was against Fulham. Like that's what it's

1140
00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:12,520
Speaker 5: gonna have to take. So for all you want to

1141
00:57:12,520 --> 00:57:15,240
Speaker 5: go fans out there who are fans of our big parlays,

1142
00:57:15,239 --> 00:57:18,880
Speaker 5: this is our biggest one. Copenhagen plus three twenty Braga

1143
00:57:19,040 --> 00:57:23,400
Speaker 5: eleven to one, Galatasaraye eleven to one pays out six

1144
00:57:23,440 --> 00:57:26,480
Speaker 5: hundred and three to one. That's the parlay for this

1145
00:57:26,640 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 5: and it's all on Wednesday in the Champions League too.

1146
00:57:29,200 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 5: But no, from a from a normal.

1147
00:57:30,560 --> 00:57:34,160
Speaker 3: Bet, you know, that's what I usually do, a little bit,

1148
00:57:34,720 --> 00:57:35,520
Speaker 3: a little bit separate.

1149
00:57:37,920 --> 00:57:40,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, lose everything.

1150
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:44,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, well we'd be we'd be on uh, you know,

1151
00:57:44,680 --> 00:57:47,040
Speaker 5: probably on a beach in Monaco somewhere if we put

1152
00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:49,520
Speaker 5: everything on this in a one. But no, I do

1153
00:57:49,600 --> 00:57:50,320
Speaker 5: like coping this wind.

1154
00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:51,080
Speaker 3: This wins.

1155
00:57:51,080 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 4: I'll be in you can find.

1156
00:57:54,360 --> 00:57:57,000
Speaker 5: But I do have United in this match, just real

1157
00:57:57,080 --> 00:58:00,000
Speaker 5: quick from a projection standpoint, just to you know, obvious

1158
00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 5: things roll up crazy in that first leg. But I

1159
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:07,160
Speaker 5: do have United only at about plus one thirty five here,

1160
00:58:07,440 --> 00:58:10,960
Speaker 5: so I do actually project quite a bit of value

1161
00:58:11,120 --> 00:58:14,080
Speaker 5: on Copenhagen here at home.

1162
00:58:14,320 --> 00:58:17,840
Speaker 1: It's a great bet, all right, that does it? Great

1163
00:58:17,920 --> 00:58:21,000
Speaker 1: great note to end it on another Manchester United fade

1164
00:58:21,000 --> 00:58:23,440
Speaker 1: pretty excited to see what rabbit they pull out of

1165
00:58:23,480 --> 00:58:27,640
Speaker 1: the hat in Denmark and we can lament about it

1166
00:58:27,760 --> 00:58:31,840
Speaker 1: on our next episode. We will be back on Wednesday,

1167
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:35,480
Speaker 1: excuse me, on Thursday morning for the Premier League, and

1168
00:58:35,480 --> 00:58:37,640
Speaker 1: then it's it's an international break again right after that,

1169
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:38,120
Speaker 1: right yep.

1170
00:58:38,200 --> 00:58:39,640
Speaker 5: After that we got a national break.

1171
00:58:40,480 --> 00:58:43,040
Speaker 1: So we got a couple more and then after that

1172
00:58:43,080 --> 00:58:46,720
Speaker 1: we get into the festive fixtures and all that jazz.

1173
00:58:46,800 --> 00:58:51,720
Speaker 1: So hopefully this Champions League stuffs our pockets and we

1174
00:58:51,720 --> 00:58:55,120
Speaker 1: can get ready to bet those with an added bankroll

1175
00:58:55,640 --> 00:58:58,160
Speaker 1: for b J Cunningham, antony to Bunda, Michael Leiboff, thank

1176
00:58:58,160 --> 00:59:00,520
Speaker 1: you again for listening to Wondergirl. Tank you to our

1177
00:59:00,560 --> 00:59:03,880
Speaker 1: sponsors Bestree six five. Thank you to our producer Noah.

1178
00:59:04,280 --> 00:59:12,720
Speaker 1: We will see you again in a couple of days.

1179
00:59:13,680 --> 00:59:18,200
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1180
00:59:18,200 --> 00:59:21,000
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, Help is

1181
00:59:21,040 --> 00:59:24,160
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler