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Speaker 1: All right, let's get more on this Pelosi plan visit

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Speaker 1: to Taiwan, because it's certainly like to raise hackles, as

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Speaker 1: we've been reporting in Beijing. It already has. Let's get

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Speaker 1: to Ian Mala Bloomberg diplomatic correspondent, and you've got to

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Speaker 1: ask yourself what's her upside here? And actually it's puts

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Speaker 1: Beijing into well, they put themselves perhaps into a corner. Well,

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Speaker 1: this is all going on to Yeah, I think Arish,

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Speaker 1: I think both of the sides have put themselves into

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Speaker 1: a corner here. I mean, there's very little that China

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Speaker 1: can do now without responding, you know, in some kind

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Speaker 1: of fiery nationalistic, most likely military fashion. And for Pelosi herself,

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Speaker 1: if she had declined to go, would have been widely

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Speaker 1: seen as capitulation to to China. And so it's a

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Speaker 1: good question what the upside is here. And I think

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Speaker 1: for Pelosi, um a lot of people here in d C.

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Speaker 1: Are wondering whether she will still be House Speaker on

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Speaker 1: the other side of the mid term elections here with

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Speaker 1: the Biden administration and Democrats going in here with record

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Speaker 1: high inflation, you know, high gas prices and the rest

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Speaker 1: of it. So there is a sense here that she

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Speaker 1: may want to tap off her congressional career, you know,

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Speaker 1: one that has been marked as being a China hawk

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Speaker 1: and a human rights advocate for for many years on

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Speaker 1: these issues, you know, with a you know, a final

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Speaker 1: um in the eye with a trip to Taiwan, which

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Speaker 1: obviously do you think that there would be some back

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Speaker 1: channel discussion about that she's eighty two years old and

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Speaker 1: and maybe um that behind the scenes the US is

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Speaker 1: saying this to the Chinese side. Look, this is a

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Speaker 1: kind of grandstanding event. We weren't for it. Um. Foreign

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Speaker 1: policy is generally directed by the executive branch of the government,

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Speaker 1: not not the Congress. Is it likely that that may

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Speaker 1: have occurred, or do you think that that the US

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Speaker 1: is actually, uh, they want to poke China and this

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Speaker 1: is a part of it. Yeah, it's an interesting question.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think that the White House and others

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Speaker 1: here have been pretty overt in saying that they have

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Speaker 1: been talking to China about this trip. They have been

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Speaker 1: kind of stressing, uh that a coequal branch of government,

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Speaker 1: that they're not directing Pelosi. Um, I think you know,

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Speaker 1: this was part of a planned trip earlier in the earth.

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Speaker 1: He said, earlier that you know, she wanted to go,

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Speaker 1: but she she had come down with COVID, and so

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Speaker 1: I think now it's just she wanted to reschedule this trip.

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Speaker 1: There was you know, is there's just the timing is

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Speaker 1: so terrible with the party Congress coming up for she,

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Speaker 1: midterm elections coming up for for Biden. Very little either

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Speaker 1: side could have done to back down. But I think

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Speaker 1: there's definitely been a lot of back channel stuff. Um.

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Speaker 1: But as you've seen with a lot of the high

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Speaker 1: level talks that have gone on between China and the

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Speaker 1: US over the last few months, it really does seem

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Speaker 1: like both sides are just kind of reading talking points

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Speaker 1: to each other, um, kind of talking past each other.

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Speaker 1: You know, this is what we're saying about Taiwan. You know,

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Speaker 1: we we don't control Pelosi, etcetera. We're not meaning to

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Speaker 1: kind of, you know, raise tensions here in China, just

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Speaker 1: going look, there's a red line. You know, this is

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Speaker 1: super sensitive. You know, we're going to respond harshly, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's just you've got to a point

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Speaker 1: where we're both sides are kind of put pushing, pushing

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Speaker 1: this and and camp back down. You know, I hate

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Speaker 1: to be the cynic, but I'm going to be one anyway,

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Speaker 1: so I probably don't hate being one that much. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know, nationalism is the refuge of the scoundrel and

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Speaker 1: it is at a time when China's slowed down and

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Speaker 1: the banking system teetering right now. Of course, as we've

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Speaker 1: been hearing about what's going on housing wise, what better distraction.

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Speaker 1: On the other hand, and we've got the Democrats showing

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Speaker 1: that China credentials by actually instituting or carrying out this visit.

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Speaker 1: And that's ahead of the midterms. So you know, I

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Speaker 1: am being a cynic your reaction, no, absolutely, I mean

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Speaker 1: I'll vie with you for for the most cynical in

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Speaker 1: this conversation. I think it's it's it's both, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: both benefit from this tension being kind of cranked up here.

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Speaker 1: And if anyone is responsible for cranking up nationalism and

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Speaker 1: militarism in in China over the last you know, a

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Speaker 1: few years, it's it's she himself. And I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: with things going badly, whether it's you know, the general

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Speaker 1: COVID policy, which which again people in Washington now are

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Speaker 1: sort of openly uh mocking as a as a strategy

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Speaker 1: in terms of how it's been working out and what

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Speaker 1: the future is for it. Um, people do view, you know,

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Speaker 1: she as being having his reputation dented not just on

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Speaker 1: zero COVID, but on the economy and other things. So

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Speaker 1: I think this is a particularly febrile, febrile time for uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, for she to be reacting. I think the

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Speaker 1: worry here is that with both sides kind of you know,

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Speaker 1: yearning to prove something and having domestic constituencies that are

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Speaker 1: amped up to be the desired audience for this, that

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Speaker 1: there is actually a chance that there is some miscou calculation,

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Speaker 1: you know, a missile that's fired off the coast of

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Speaker 1: Taiwan that is we kind of not not properly relayed

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Speaker 1: or or radar it end properly. So I think there

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Speaker 1: is perhaps e and but I think we can see

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Speaker 1: from the market reaction there hasn't been much of one.

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Speaker 1: Uh that the point that you were making, the point

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Speaker 1: that I suggested with the grandstanding, and the one that

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Speaker 1: Risch made was that, uh, everybody seems to think that

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Speaker 1: this will go kind of proform, both sides will will

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Speaker 1: up the hyperbole and uh, uh, well, let's say. Hopefully

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Speaker 1: we won't have any kind of super negative outcome. Ian,

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Speaker 1: thanks very much for joining us as usual. We've got

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Speaker 1: to get you back to Hong Kong at some point.

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Speaker 1: Ian Marlow with US Bloomberg Diplomatic correspondent,