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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by fan Duel

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Speaker 2: Brendan Glasheen, joined by a trio of baseball experts of

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Speaker 2: Action Network, Seanzrello, collinwood Church and b J. Cunningham. Major

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Speaker 2: League Baseball Opening Day is this week. In this episode,

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Speaker 2: we are highlighting our favorite National League Best Bets American

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Speaker 2: League episode out earlier in the weeks. You can check

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Speaker 2: that out on the Action Network Podcast. I will remind

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Speaker 2: all of you that for more baseball content on the

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Speaker 2: podcast have payoff Pitch Action Network's MLB Betting Podcast, which

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Speaker 2: will be coming to you throughout the course of the

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Speaker 2: week leading up to Opening Day and also throughout the season.

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Speaker 2: But we wanted to come to you on the Action

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Speaker 2: Network podcast side to give out some favorite bets. Start

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Speaker 2: in the NL East looking forward to this, I think

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Speaker 2: that's where we have a lot of edges and discussion

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Speaker 2: to be had. Zarrillo the Braves, I know you've talked

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Speaker 2: about the Braves quite a bit in your wind Total

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Speaker 2: projection right up on actionnetwork dot Com. The value though,

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Speaker 2: I think on the Braves, I know you're still finding some,

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Speaker 2: but it's coming down, so you might want to get

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Speaker 2: in on them Braves in the variety of ways that

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Speaker 2: you have. Why don't you tell us what you got?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think these numbers are shrinking, not only because

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Speaker 3: I put the information out there, and generally when I

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Speaker 3: put this out and a lot of people tell it,

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Speaker 3: the numbers come down, but also the Mets injuries and

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Speaker 3: the Phillies injuries in spring training, Ranger Suarez and Andrew

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Speaker 3: Panter dealing with elbow soreness. Reese Hoskins went down yesterday.

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Speaker 3: It seemed very bad. I don't know what the prognosis

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Speaker 3: is on them. So he's done for the year, Edwin

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Speaker 3: Dias done for the year, Jose Katana for the Mets,

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Speaker 3: not coming back till Midsummer. So the Mets and the

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Speaker 3: Braves or the Mets in the Phillies coming to Beer

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Speaker 3: extremely banged up with some key players. So yes, I

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Speaker 3: would absolutely jump on the Braves right now. Down to

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Speaker 3: plus one oh five to win the Division, plus four

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Speaker 3: hundred Pennant plus nine hundred World Series. It's basically the

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Speaker 3: recognations have had since the middle of last year when

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Speaker 3: I viewed the Braves as the best team in baseball.

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Speaker 3: That projection hasn't really changed. But also Fangrafts has viewed

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Speaker 3: them as the best team in baseball since around that

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Speaker 3: time too. I think just their combination of star talent

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Speaker 3: and depth exceeds everybody else. Should get a full year

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Speaker 3: from Ronald Kuna hopefully this year Ozzi Albi is coming

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Speaker 3: back healthy. Michael Harris I think is still underrated compared

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Speaker 3: to what he did last year. He literally put up

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Speaker 3: like a Mic Trout level rookie season. So the Braves

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Speaker 3: and I have a bunch of player prop bets on

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Speaker 3: Mettals and Max read like they're across the board of

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Speaker 3: the Brays I think are a great team to bet,

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Speaker 3: But in terms of the wind total, where I would

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Speaker 3: look now is still to the Phillies under eighty eight

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Speaker 3: and a half because it hasn't really moved that much

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Speaker 3: after the Hoskins injury and given the news around as

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Speaker 3: I said, Suarez and Painter with their elbows potentially shoulder

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Speaker 3: for one of them. Either way, it's not trending well

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Speaker 3: for the Phillies, so the depth is already falling apart.

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Speaker 3: That was my biggest concern with them. They have star

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Speaker 3: talent there. Trey Turner, big addition for them, made some

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Speaker 3: nice additions in the bullpen too, but probably not getting

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Speaker 3: Bryce Harper back to around the All Star break. And

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Speaker 3: if they're doing okay, they have no reason to rush

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Speaker 3: him either. They just want him healthy. So if they're

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Speaker 3: in the wildcard race, if they're not like struggling really badly,

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Speaker 3: they're not going to rush him by any means. They're

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Speaker 3: gonna make sure he's one hundred percent healthy. They were

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Speaker 3: my favorite long shot last year right because I thought

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Speaker 3: if they got to the playoffs, they were dangerous. But

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Speaker 3: going into the season, I don't like their depth as

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Speaker 3: much to get close to ninety wins, which is roughly

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Speaker 3: where their win total is. So I just think this

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Speaker 3: wind totals a bit too high compared to the depth

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Speaker 3: they have. I still like them to get to the

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Speaker 3: playoffs be a wild card team by the end of

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Speaker 3: the year. Everybody should hopefully be healthy, Brice will be healthy,

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Speaker 3: and they'll be competitive and dangerous in the playoffs. Obviously

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Speaker 3: one of Hoskins, but maybe they make an addition replace him,

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Speaker 3: et cetera. So my favorite angles for the ALI is

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Speaker 3: going in through the year. I would bet the Braves

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Speaker 3: right away right now, I'd bet the Phillies win totals

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Speaker 3: under right now. I think those are all correlated obviously,

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Speaker 3: but also giving the injury news, I expect those lines

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Speaker 3: to continue to move in my direction.

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Speaker 2: Earlier in the month, when we did our Payoff Pitch

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Speaker 2: Division previews, you could have got the Braves at plus

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Speaker 2: one forty to win the division over at Fandles. So,

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Speaker 2: as Zarrillo said, the numbers shrinking, want to jump in

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Speaker 2: a sap before there could be a market correction based

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Speaker 2: on the injuries elsewhere in the division. Colin Whitchurch, you

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Speaker 2: discussed it quite a bit, the Rookie of the Year

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Speaker 2: angles in the American League. You actually have a cy

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Speaker 2: Young pick and it's on the Phillies side.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. I just want to echo I agree with everything's

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Speaker 4: Rella said about the Braves. I have World Series future

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Speaker 4: on them. I have Pennant future on them. The Braves

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Speaker 4: would be my top bet in the NL East, But

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Speaker 4: in an effort to give out as many bets as

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Speaker 4: possible on this podcast, I'll talk about my favorite Cy

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Speaker 4: Young future and this is just a pure value play

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Speaker 4: by who I think could end up by the end

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Speaker 4: of the season being the best pitcher in the National League.

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Speaker 4: That's Aaron Nola. We talked about the Phillies it's stars

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Speaker 4: and scrubs in Philadelphia, but one of their stars is

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Speaker 4: Aaron Nola. The fact that he has the let's see one, two, three, four, five, six,

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Speaker 4: seven eight best odds to win NLSAI Young is insane

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Speaker 4: to me thirteen to one. I don't see any reason

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Speaker 4: why his odds should be longer than Max Freed, than

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Speaker 4: Zach Gallon. I understand why Sandy al Contra and Corbyn

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Speaker 4: Burns are up there at the top. I just trust

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Speaker 4: him more than some of the older guys on let's

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Speaker 4: say the Mets staff like Lander and Schurzer to get

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Speaker 4: through the season. If I had to guess as to

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Speaker 4: why Nola's odds are as long as they are, it's

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Speaker 4: because he was one of the most unlucky pitchers in baseball.

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Speaker 4: Last year. He had a four to six three ERA,

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Speaker 4: but all of his expected stats were about a full

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Speaker 4: run lower. I think that there is absolutely a scenario where,

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Speaker 4: regardless of how the Phillies do, Nola could end up

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Speaker 4: leading the National League innings pitched, leading the National League

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Speaker 4: in strikeouts, have an ERA in the mid threes. That's

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Speaker 4: going to have him in the Cy Young conversation. So

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Speaker 4: thirteen to one, I feel like is a steal. Right now.

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Speaker 4: I feel like by mid May he's going to be

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Speaker 4: one of the three or four favorites, and right now

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Speaker 4: he's seventh. So I love Nola for syng.

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Speaker 3: And if from a nary berdentel siong got too. I

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Speaker 3: just want to echo Colin. I project Nola's second in

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Speaker 3: NL War amongst pitchers, behind Corbyn Burns. So considering he's

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Speaker 3: would you say six or eighth on the odds board,

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Speaker 3: it doesn't align with his projection.

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Speaker 2: Well, I would think too, Colin. From a narrative perspective,

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Speaker 2: if the Phillies do hang around and stay in contention,

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Speaker 2: Nola would be a big reason why. Considering the back

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Speaker 2: end of the rotation having injury concerns. Zarilla brought up

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Speaker 2: the elbow stuff. So just from a narrative standpoint, Nola

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Speaker 2: keeping them around in the race, he could get a

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Speaker 2: lot of attention because he'd have to carry that staff

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Speaker 2: because the other staffs, and I mean you look up

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Speaker 2: and down that the list here. I know al Kinantara

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Speaker 2: is probably the exception because he's like that's it in Miami.

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Speaker 2: But a lot of a lot of cases where there's

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Speaker 2: two names from one staff. I realize Zach Wheeler's there too,

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Speaker 2: But if the Braves are or if the Phillies are

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Speaker 2: hanging around, no one's going to be a big reason why.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that that is probably a narrative that

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Speaker 4: you'll see more in the MVP race than the cy

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Speaker 4: Young race. But you know, he's as steady as they

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Speaker 4: come at this point. He's one of the safest bets

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Speaker 4: to make it through a season healthy. You know, knock

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Speaker 4: on wood after all that the Phillies have gone through,

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Speaker 4: But he's one of the safest bets to make it

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Speaker 4: through season healthy. He's going to give you longevity. He's

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Speaker 4: going to strike out a ton of dudes. I just

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Speaker 4: don't understand why he's thirteen to one right now. Like

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Speaker 4: Zach Gallon, I love Zach Gallon, absolutely adores that Gallon.

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Speaker 4: He was lights out down the stretch for the Diamondbacks

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Speaker 4: last year. He's done it for half a season. Aaron

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Speaker 4: Nola's done it for three or four years now.

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Speaker 2: Well, Nola goes down, it helps the under.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I believe Noah's the leader in like start

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Speaker 3: s Inding's pitched, etc. Over the past several seasons too.

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Speaker 3: He's he's been the work course of MLB BJ.

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Speaker 2: We haven't heard from you yet l least, what are

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Speaker 2: your thoughts. Do you have anything you'd like to play now?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I obviously, you know, echoing a lot

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Speaker 5: of what Sean and Colin have said about the Phillies.

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Speaker 5: I like them in kind of a different market. I

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Speaker 5: like them to miss the playoffs at plus one seventy five. Obviously,

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Speaker 5: Hoskins going down for the season hurts them quite a bit.

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Speaker 5: You know, he was a two point two war hitter

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Speaker 5: last season, So losing about two wins from ay team

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Speaker 5: who already has a composite win projection around eighty six,

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Speaker 5: that's big time trouble. Some Plus, they're probably the most

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Speaker 5: difficult division in the National League with the ascension of

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Speaker 5: the Marlins all the talent that they have, So it's

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Speaker 5: gonna be a very very difficult division for them to potentially,

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Speaker 5: you know, get a wild card out of let alone win.

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Speaker 5: And the concerns with the Phillies right now is you know,

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Speaker 5: obviously they added trade turners. One of the best hitters

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Speaker 5: in baseball. Bryce Harp will be back midway through the season.

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Speaker 5: The lineup is still very, very talented and one of

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Speaker 5: the best in the National League. But the starting pitching

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Speaker 5: is a concern. Obviously, Aaron Nolan Zach Wuler to top

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Speaker 5: twenty five pitchers in Major League Baseball. No can really

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Speaker 5: concerns with those two guys. But beyond that, they already

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Speaker 5: mentioned you know Ranger Suarez's forearm tightness, we don't know

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Speaker 5: what's going to happen with him. We have Taylan Walker,

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Speaker 5: who last season was productive for the Mets, but he

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Speaker 5: was a three point nine XCRA. That's the first time

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Speaker 5: he's ever done that in his career, so now getting

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Speaker 5: up over the age of thirty, asking him to do

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Speaker 5: that again is a lot. And then Bailey Falter overperformed

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Speaker 5: really drastically last lyay I think he was a three

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Speaker 5: six ERA expected the ray was around four to seven.

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Speaker 5: And then beyond that, who knows. So you already have

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Speaker 5: a thin starting pitch starting rotation in the most difficult

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Speaker 5: division in the National League. So you're asking your lineup

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Speaker 5: essentially to carry you all the way there. And if

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Speaker 5: you look at fangrafts, they only have the Phillies projected

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Speaker 5: at forty nine percent to make the playoffs, so at

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Speaker 5: plus one seventy five, I think there's tremendous value given

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Speaker 5: obviously all the injuries that have happened with the Phillies

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Speaker 5: so far for them to miss the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to the NL Central Zerillo World Series angle

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Speaker 2: for a team out of the Central.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the Cardinal is my favorite long shot World Series

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Speaker 3: pick in the National League. Simpler angle, I guess to

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Speaker 3: the Rays in the American League, which was my favorite

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Speaker 3: long shot there. I think the Cardinals should be peaking

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Speaker 3: at the end of the season given how much position

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Speaker 3: player depth they have. I actually don't know if they've

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Speaker 3: figured out their starting lineup yet what they're gonna do

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Speaker 3: with Jordan Walker. Walker hurt started out great in spring,

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Speaker 3: then got hurt, has struggled in recent at bats, so

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Speaker 3: he may end up going to the miners to start

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Speaker 3: the season, even though it looked like he was a

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Speaker 3: lock for their opening day roster at one point. Their

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Speaker 3: biggest concern is starting pitching, led by fifty year old

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Speaker 3: million year old Adam Wayne Wright. I think Nicholas Montgomery

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Speaker 3: they're gonna give them solid innings. Steven Matts gets hurt

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Speaker 3: of ye Jack Flaherty is a complete mystery. So they

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Speaker 3: have like two solid starters and then everything else is

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Speaker 3: kind of a guess. The bullpen is also hit or miss,

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Speaker 3: like they're relying on Jordan Hicks to come back off

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Speaker 3: injury and give them something big. But by the end

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Speaker 3: of the year, with all the prospects they have, all

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Speaker 3: the pieces they have, how active they should be at

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Speaker 3: the trade deadline, et cetera. This team should look a

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Speaker 3: little bit different than it does now. I would expect

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Speaker 3: them to add some starting pitching, and I think come

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Speaker 3: playoff time, they're going to be a very dangerous team

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Speaker 3: because this position player group is so deep. I would

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Speaker 3: put them up one through nine with any other lineup

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Speaker 3: in baseball, including the Padres, including the Mets, including the Braves, Yankees.

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Speaker 3: I think this Cardinals lineup one through nine is as

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Speaker 3: deep as any other group. Plus they have depth on

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Speaker 3: the bench to sub people out play matchups with guys

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Speaker 3: like Nolan Gorman, Ypez, tons of prospects coming up, even

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Speaker 3: at Mason winn Like sitting in double A, who is

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Speaker 3: probably blocked, but other teams would be able to bring

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Speaker 3: them up this year, Laboratory and Tripa so like given

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Speaker 3: the all the pieces they have not only currently on

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Speaker 3: their roster, but what they could use for trades, etc.

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Speaker 3: The Cardinals come playoff time should be very dangerous. I

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Speaker 3: like their divisional odds at minus one fifteen, those a

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Speaker 3: move closer to minus one forty. So that's why I'm

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Speaker 3: looking more at bigger odds long term angles with the Cardinals.

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Speaker 3: I do think they're better than the Brewers. I think

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Speaker 3: the rules are going to help them more than the Brewers.

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Speaker 3: Obviously the pitching a concern, but I don't think that's

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Speaker 3: going to matter given their defense and their player position

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Speaker 3: player groups. So yeah, you guys know, I've been very

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Speaker 3: low on the Cardinals the past couple of years. I

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Speaker 3: bet their win total unders. I've been on the Brewers'

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Speaker 3: divisional odds, but I think this year, with the new rules,

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Speaker 3: with the roster construction they have, not only are the

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Speaker 3: Cardinals a safer bet for the division, I think they

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Speaker 3: are an actual dangerous World Series contender.

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Speaker 2: This would be a division where the old rules in

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Speaker 2: terms of scheduling would probably help the Cardinals because of

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Speaker 2: the Cubs being formulating an all Star team from like

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Speaker 2: five years ago. The way the Cubs have put their

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Speaker 2: team together, Pirates and Reds smell. So it'd be better

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Speaker 2: for this particular division if they actually had a chance

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Speaker 2: to play each other more often. Colin wich Church, you're

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Speaker 2: you're down on a team right below the Cardinals as

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Speaker 2: far as the odds are concerned coming out of this division.

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Speaker 4: Did you say the Pirates and Reds smell?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, they have a scent.

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Speaker 3: They so bad?

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Speaker 4: Are good?

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Speaker 5: That's fair.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that's the team so much as uh

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Speaker 3: Eastern Ohio.

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Speaker 4: Western Ohio has legal sports betting. Now we need to

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Speaker 4: be nice to them. They're going to do a lot

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Speaker 4: of gambling on the Guardians and Reds this season.

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Speaker 2: Hold on a second. We did the American League episode

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Speaker 2: and Massachusetts just legalized, and you're crapping on the Red Sox.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well that's Massachusetts. They can take it anyway. But

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Speaker 4: I digress. Yes, I love the Cardinals this year. My

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Speaker 4: angle on betting. Betting on the Cardinals this year is

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Speaker 4: to fade the Milwaukee Brewer, who I think are being overvalued.

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Speaker 4: Their win till right now eighty six and a half.

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Speaker 4: I'm going under on that. It's actually funny. I was

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Speaker 4: looking at the make miss playoff odds yesterday. The Brewers

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Speaker 4: are the only team in the entire Majors that are

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Speaker 4: a true toss up on the make miss. They're minus

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Speaker 4: one to ten in both directions, or the only team

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Speaker 4: that's like that, And I think they're gonna miss the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: We talked in the American League episode about how both

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Speaker 4: the AL Central and NL Central are gonna have a

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Speaker 4: tough time getting more than one playoff team, and I

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Speaker 4: think the Brewers are going to be one of the

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Speaker 4: odd teams out because of this. This is a team

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Speaker 4: that has talked about potentially selling this season. They obviously

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Speaker 4: have one of the most dynamic one two punches in

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Speaker 4: baseball at the top of the rotation. Corbin Burns and

300
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Speaker 4: Brandon Woodruff. Are both of them gonna be Brewers by

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Speaker 4: the end of July? I'm not so sure. Their lineup

302
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Speaker 4: has kind of started to fall apart a little bit.

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Speaker 4: I love Willie Damas. Are we going to see a

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Speaker 4: repeat performance out of Rowdy tu Les? Is Christian Yelich

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Speaker 4: going to provide anything? Are we going to see a

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Speaker 4: bounce back from Jesse Winker? William Contreras? Is he going

307
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Speaker 4: to do what he did in Atlanta last year? Luis

308
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Speaker 4: Heirius they're relying on guys like Garrett Mitchell and Bryce

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Speaker 4: Terrang who are completely unproven, kind of back end of

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Speaker 4: the top one hundred type prospects, and I just don't

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Speaker 4: see it, especially in a world where they're not going

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Speaker 4: to be playing the Cubs, Pirates and Reds as often

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Speaker 4: as they did last.

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Speaker 3: Year because they smell.

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Speaker 4: Because they smell, I'm out on the Brewers this year.

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Speaker 4: I think the Cardinals run away and hide in that division.

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Speaker 4: You know, the Brewers could finish in second place in

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Speaker 4: that division and still hit the under on their win total.

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Speaker 4: Eighty six and a half, I think is far too high.

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Speaker 4: I think they're going to be a lot closer to

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Speaker 4: a five hundred team this year. So out on the Brewers.

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Speaker 4: I apologize deeply to our NFL editor Matt Trebby, but Brewers.

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Speaker 3: Are going to be bad this year under hearyfan Burns

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Speaker 3: both for agents at the end of the year two

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Speaker 3: and we saw how y hater last year when they

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Speaker 3: they were like kind of floundering a little bit, still

327
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Speaker 3: in first place. So yeah, this front office is very

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Speaker 3: quick to sell.

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Speaker 2: Bj NL Central.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I don't hate a look at the

331
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Speaker 5: Pirates to hit their win total over sixt two and

332
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Speaker 5: a half. Obviously, it's the most popular win total out

333
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Speaker 5: there of any team in I think ninety nine percent

334
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Speaker 5: of the money is on the over. But it's a

335
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Speaker 5: very exciting lineup. Obviously, O'Neil Cruz is one of the

336
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Speaker 5: most exciting hitters in baseball.

337
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Speaker 3: They have.

338
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Speaker 5: They just brought back Andrew McCutcheon and Carlos Santana, which

339
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Speaker 5: you know, obviously they're getting up there in age, so

340
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Speaker 5: you can't expect much production from them. But they also

341
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Speaker 5: still have Brian Reynolds, who has been one of the

342
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Speaker 5: more consistent productive hitters in the National League Central for

343
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Speaker 5: a really long time. Key Brian Hayes has obviously been,

344
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Speaker 5: you know, one of the more exciting young hitters as

345
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Speaker 5: well for them. Gimyn CHOI very very solid hitter for

346
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Speaker 5: Tampa Bay for a long time. So this lineup is

347
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Speaker 5: halfway decent. You know, the starting rotation leaves a lot

348
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Speaker 5: to be desired. You know, I love my friend Mitch

349
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Speaker 5: Keller from Cedar Rapids, Iowa. He had a better season

350
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Speaker 5: that he's had the last two seasons. Rounsei Contreras has

351
00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:08,520
Speaker 5: has been exciting. You know, He's got great stuff. He

352
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Speaker 5: obviously fell off a little bit towards the end. In

353
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Speaker 5: the back end, I mean, it's not good rich Hill

354
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Speaker 5: and Vince velast is gonna be you know, if they

355
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Speaker 5: were on like a halfway decent like team, they would

356
00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:19,520
Speaker 5: be awesome fade material. But essentially, since they're gonna be

357
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Speaker 5: on the Pirates, they're gonna be massive underdogs. So there's

358
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Speaker 5: probably scenarios where I'm gonna have to, you know, place

359
00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:26,760
Speaker 5: a three to one bet on rich Hill when they

360
00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:30,679
Speaker 5: face the Cardinals or something. But and then you know,

361
00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:32,720
Speaker 5: the bullpen is obviously not good. But again, we're not

362
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Speaker 5: asking this team to go five hundred. We're just asking

363
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Speaker 5: them to win sick about sixty five games. So I

364
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Speaker 5: like the Pirates win total over. I actually do kind

365
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Speaker 5: of like the Ruors to make the playoffs as well.

366
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Speaker 5: I'm gonna disagree with Colin on that one. Obviously, the

367
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Speaker 5: lineup it leaves a little to be desired. I think

368
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Speaker 5: they're just a perfectly average lineup. But even beyond Corbyn

369
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Speaker 5: Burns and Brandon Woodriff, I mean, Freddie Prault has some

370
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Speaker 5: of the nastiest stuff in the National League and has

371
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Speaker 5: underperformed the last few seasons as well as ryk Lauer,

372
00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:03,480
Speaker 5: who's been perfectly average starting pitcher, and then Wayde Miley,

373
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Speaker 5: who knows what you get out of him. But the

374
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Speaker 5: bullpen is also very good. You know, Devin Williams is

375
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Speaker 5: a top five reliever in Major League Baseball. You know,

376
00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:13,760
Speaker 5: he's candidates maybe lead the National League in saves, and

377
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Speaker 5: then beyond that, Hoby Miller and Matt Bush are top

378
00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:19,119
Speaker 5: one hundred relievers. So I actually do like the Brewers

379
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Speaker 5: to make the playoffs. I think that they have the

380
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Speaker 5: starting rotation and the bullpen depth to get them across

381
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Speaker 5: the line, and especially in what is, you know, a

382
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,159
Speaker 5: weaker division. Obviously they're not gonna be playing you know,

383
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Speaker 5: the Cardinal Excuse me not the Cardinals, the Cubs, Pirates,

384
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Speaker 5: and Reds as much as they used to. But I

385
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Speaker 5: think this team is perfectly capable of making the playoffs,

386
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Speaker 5: especially when Fangrafts has them at fifty seven percent to

387
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Speaker 5: make the playoffs.

388
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Speaker 2: And finally, the National League West padre is very active

389
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Speaker 2: this offseason. The Dodgers are they taking a step back

390
00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:52,320
Speaker 2: because of some of their roster reconstruction due to some

391
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Speaker 2: some flights from their roster. Dodgers are favored in the

392
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Speaker 2: division minus one twenty five Padres next, and then I

393
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Speaker 2: won't use the smell word. I guess I could for

394
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Speaker 2: Rockies and Diamondbacks, but then AnyWho Zarrillo angles on. I

395
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Speaker 2: feel like we're going to talk a lot of Dodgers

396
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Speaker 2: Padres here in this particular division. What are your thoughts here?

397
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Speaker 3: Yeah, And I feel like we shouldn't leave out the

398
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Speaker 3: Giants because the Giants did win the division two years

399
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Speaker 3: ago and had that incredible season, but they weren't able

400
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Speaker 3: to acquire their two main targets during the offseason, which

401
00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:25,640
Speaker 3: were judging Korea, and if they had gotten either, maybe

402
00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:27,159
Speaker 3: there would be a little bit more buzz about the

403
00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:30,280
Speaker 3: Giants getting involved here. I still think with the prospects

404
00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:32,680
Speaker 3: they have coming up, maybe next year is the year

405
00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:36,040
Speaker 3: we get more interested in the Giants. Additionally, if they

406
00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 3: can actually sign somebody in free agency. But in terms

407
00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:42,399
Speaker 3: of how I want to bet this division, it's just

408
00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 3: Padres to win the division and that's it. No Dodters under,

409
00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:50,800
Speaker 3: no Padres over. I think Padres plus one forty ish

410
00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:53,640
Speaker 3: to win the division is by far the best way

411
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Speaker 3: to play the NL West. Essentially, Fangrafts makes this division

412
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Speaker 3: to pick them. I have them within a game of

413
00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:02,440
Speaker 3: each other. I believe Pakoda has the Daughters about three

414
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,840
Speaker 3: wins better than the podres. Looking down, up and down

415
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,240
Speaker 3: the daughters roster we talked about, it does not scare

416
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:11,360
Speaker 3: you nearly as much as it has in recent years. Now,

417
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Speaker 3: Colin and I were chatting before we just jumped on

418
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Speaker 3: the pod. We were looking through their bullpen, seeing guys

419
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Speaker 3: like Shelby Miller, and you know, we trust the daughters

420
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Speaker 3: to find guys to be productive, guys like Shelby Miller

421
00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:24,919
Speaker 3: who were a year off injury, who went to the

422
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,159
Speaker 3: Giants for seven innings and threw a slider fifty five

423
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Speaker 3: percent of the time, and they signed him for a

424
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:32,159
Speaker 3: million bucks. Like I trust the daughters to get that

425
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,240
Speaker 3: TrackMan data realize this guy has a high chance of

426
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Speaker 3: being a good reliever based on our data models, and

427
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Speaker 3: to make efficient signings like that. But they do not have,

428
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Speaker 3: in my opinion, the elite level talent that they've had

429
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Speaker 3: in recent years, losing Tray Turner. It's just not the

430
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Speaker 3: elite talent, you know, not being as sure that Clayton

431
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 3: Kershaw is going to give you as many innings as

432
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:57,200
Speaker 3: he has areas struggled in the WBC, Walker Buehler hurt

433
00:20:57,240 --> 00:20:59,680
Speaker 3: the start the year. I actually think Dustin May is

434
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,920
Speaker 3: gonna have breakout year finally. But they're relying on guys

435
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:06,680
Speaker 3: like Noah Cinderguard, guys who they invested small amounts of

436
00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:09,159
Speaker 3: money in who were probably going to turn out to

437
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 3: be good investments. But they need all of those to

438
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:14,280
Speaker 3: hit in order to beat the Padres. Otherwise the Padres

439
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,960
Speaker 3: are just deeper, have more star talent. I don't love

440
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,399
Speaker 3: Darvish this year, lower on him. Joe Muscrove hurt to

441
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:24,359
Speaker 3: start the year. There's reasons to be skeptical about the

442
00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:29,119
Speaker 3: Padres too, but I prefer their lineup. I prefer their bullpen,

443
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 3: and I think their starting pitching is as deep or

444
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:36,199
Speaker 3: deeper to the point where I prefer them to win

445
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 3: the division. So plus one fortyish division right now plus

446
00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 3: five fifty pennant, I like those down about plus one

447
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:46,880
Speaker 3: fifteen plus five hundred respectively. My final four, my NLCS

448
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 3: would have the Braves and the Padres in it. So

449
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,399
Speaker 3: I have Pennant bets on both of those teams, divisional

450
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:54,119
Speaker 3: bets on both of those teams, and I think the

451
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 3: projections justify both of those bets as well.

452
00:21:57,000 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 2: Colin which church you share similar sentiments on the Padres

453
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:01,439
Speaker 2: to come out of the West?

454
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,880
Speaker 4: Yeah. I won't reiterate a lot of what Sean said.

455
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:10,160
Speaker 4: He made very salient points. I will say that you're

456
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:12,240
Speaker 4: going to see me give out a lot of long

457
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,639
Speaker 4: shot bets leading up to the season. You heard it

458
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:18,199
Speaker 4: on the American League podcast. You're gonna hear more in

459
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,440
Speaker 4: just a second from me. But one of the non

460
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 4: lung shots I'm going to be betting falls along the

461
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 4: same Padres love fest. I'm betting Juan Soto to win

462
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 4: NL MVP. Yeah, he's the favorite. He's plus five point fifty.

463
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,919
Speaker 4: You will rarely see me bet favorites this early in

464
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 4: the season. I wouldn't, for example, bet show Hey Otani

465
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,639
Speaker 4: to win AL MVP at plus two twenty, But at

466
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 4: plus five fifty, I think this is the highest were

467
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 4: going to see Soto's odds all season. I think this

468
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:50,479
Speaker 4: is when there's value, you know. I started working at

469
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 4: Action Network about two years ago, right before the twenty

470
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 4: twenty one season, and Sean and I were kind of

471
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 4: getting to know each other and talking about awards leading

472
00:22:58,119 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 4: up to the twenty twenty one season, and we joked

473
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,159
Speaker 4: with each other. They think we're just going to keep

474
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 4: betting Wan Soda to win or to win MVP until

475
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 4: he finally does. He was a national at the time,

476
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 4: and I'm sticking to that. I'm betting Soda to win

477
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:15,640
Speaker 4: NLMVP until he does. Because we know health pending, he's

478
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:17,679
Speaker 4: going to be a top two or three hitter in

479
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 4: the league. At worst, he could easily be number one.

480
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:24,719
Speaker 4: I think by mid May we could see Juan Soto

481
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 4: NLMVP adds at about plus two hundred and right now

482
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 4: at the beginning of the year, because it's such a

483
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:33,120
Speaker 4: wide open race, he's plus five point fifty. His teammate

484
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 4: Fernando Tuttis Junior's right there at ten to one. Manny

485
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,679
Speaker 4: Machado is at twelve to one. But Wan Soto is

486
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 4: the best hitter on the planet, maybe not the best

487
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:44,879
Speaker 4: player on the planet. We talk a lot about all

488
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 4: these different skill sets, but Wan Soto is going to

489
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 4: have the high OVP, He's going to hit a lot

490
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 4: of home runs, and he's going to be up there

491
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:54,919
Speaker 4: at the end of the year if he's healthy for

492
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 4: an entire season. So there's no reason why Soto's odds

493
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 4: should stay as high as they are right now plus

494
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 4: five point fifty. Love that value. I'm going to flip

495
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:08,440
Speaker 4: things completely on their head with my other NL West pick.

496
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 4: It is another Rookie of the Year pick. You know,

497
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 4: we're doing a favorite long Shots podcast on Payoff Pitch

498
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 4: leading up to Opening Day, which I will not be on,

499
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:18,479
Speaker 4: so I have to get some of my long shots

500
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:23,640
Speaker 4: in here. Michael Bush, Dodgers prospect. Currently at FanDuel, he's

501
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 4: one hundred to one to win NL Rookie of the Year.

502
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 4: You look around and do some line shopping, He's about

503
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:30,959
Speaker 4: thirty to one at a lot of other books. So

504
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:33,360
Speaker 4: there's insane value on Michael Bush. He's going to start

505
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 4: the year in TRIPAA for the Dodgers. Sean talked about

506
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 4: their depth, some of the uncertain guys that they're relying on.

507
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 4: Bush kind of plays everywhere. We could see him come

508
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 4: up and play three different positions. He has very good power,

509
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 4: he has a great contact rate, he gets on base.

510
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 4: We can see Bush come up by the end of

511
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 4: April and for the rest of the year hit three

512
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 4: hundred with fifteen home runs while playing three different positions.

513
00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 4: One hundred to one is absolutely insane val you on

514
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 4: a prospect. He's top fifty ish at most prospect outlets

515
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 4: absolutely love him and that's where the value lies in

516
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 4: that market.

517
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 3: I just want to comment on Soto because Colin said,

518
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,159
Speaker 3: we talked about the fact that we wanted a bet

519
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 3: Soto and Akunya basically every year until they won an MVP. Well,

520
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:19,680
Speaker 3: last year Soto two years ago, Soda was plus seven fifty.

521
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 3: Last year he was plus three hundred. This year he's

522
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:23,920
Speaker 3: close to plus six hundred gain. So I didn't bet

523
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,199
Speaker 3: him last year. I bet him two years ago. I

524
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 3: bet him this year. Acunia is ten to one this year.

525
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 3: That's absolutely worth betting too. Just bet the two of them.

526
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 3: Bet mookie bets. That's all you need to bet in

527
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:33,159
Speaker 3: the National League.

528
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 2: All right, good stuff from a value numbers perspective. Let's

529
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:41,960
Speaker 2: go to bj NL West. What comes to mind?

530
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I agree with both Colin and Sean.

531
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,159
Speaker 5: Then I will be on the Padres as well to

532
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,719
Speaker 5: win the division. I don't need to regurgitate every all

533
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 5: the wonderful points they said. I'm going instead going to

534
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,479
Speaker 5: go for a cy Young bet. The odds have kind

535
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 5: of shortened a little bit, but I still think there's

536
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,880
Speaker 5: a little bit of value on it. Zach Gallon, Diamondbacks

537
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 5: starter twelve to one to win the Cy Young. Obviously,

538
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 5: he you know, for a long time, especially twenty twenty

539
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 5: and twenty twenty one, Gallon has been one of the

540
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 5: more underrated pitchers in Major League Baseball, and last season

541
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:13,400
Speaker 5: he finally took that big leap forward that now puts

542
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 5: him in, you know, as one of the top five

543
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:17,200
Speaker 5: or six guys in the odds boards to win the

544
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 5: Nnel Say Young. So last season he did over form

545
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 5: a little bit but a two five ERA, And what

546
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 5: he did a great job of is he brought down

547
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 5: his walk per nine rate. He's essentially slashed his home

548
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:29,199
Speaker 5: run per nine rate in half, and but his kate

549
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 5: p nine rate went down, So essentially he's getting more

550
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 5: ground balls, he's being able to produce more outs rather

551
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 5: than just trying to strike people out. And his four

552
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 5: pitch rotation does not really have a weakness in it.

553
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 5: If you look at it's a fastball, curveball, cutter, change up.

554
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 5: All four of those pitches are allowing an expected weight

555
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 5: and on base average under three hundreds. So for a

556
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 5: guy who has has been very, very dominant with his

557
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 5: fastball and curveball for a long time and has been

558
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 5: putting up the expected metrics of around a three three

559
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 5: point five starting pitcher. I think there's tremendous value on

560
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 5: Zach Allen to win the nlsa young at twelve one.

561
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 4: I'm glad BJ brought up the Diamondbacks real quick, big

562
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 4: Diamondbacks fan this year. I know a lot of people

563
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,439
Speaker 4: on our staff are over seventy five and a half wins.

564
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:17,400
Speaker 4: I think is a good bet, and you could even

565
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,159
Speaker 4: take a flyer on them to make the playoffs at

566
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 4: plus four thirty? Do I think it's likely? Now? Do

567
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,400
Speaker 4: I think if everything breaks right for that team, it's possible? Absolutely?

568
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,160
Speaker 2: All right? Fellas good stuff. That is our National League

569
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 2: Best Bets episode here on the Action Network podcast The

570
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 2: American League episode already out, so you could take a

571
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,880
Speaker 2: look and take a listen to that. If you missed

572
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 2: it from earlier in the week, I will remind you

573
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 2: again on the Baseball Front Payoff Pitch long shots player

574
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 2: props that's coming your way. Action Networks MLB betting podcast

575
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:51,919
Speaker 2: Payoff Pitch will also be joining you periodically and regularly

576
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 2: throughout the regular season. Also for the Action Network podcast

577
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 2: March Madness player props for the final four coming out

578
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 2: later this week. Four Shanzarillo, Colin wood Church, BJ Cunningham,

579
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 2: Brendan Glasheen. Thanks for listening, everybody enjoy, best of luck

580
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 2: with your picks for this coming MLB season, and thanks

581
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 2: as always for listening to the Action Network podcast presented

582
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:15,440
Speaker 2: by Fandor.

583
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

584
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:33,119
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

585
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler