Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Bros NFL Podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm your host Dan Harris with me is Matt Pearl.
Speaker 1: Find us on Twitter at Dan Harris ad and that
Speaker 1: Sports Talk. Matt, Matt, I mean, I know how you're
Speaker 1: doing because I've been sitting here listening to you sweat
Speaker 1: a bet. But how are you doing for the listener's sake?
Speaker 2: I'm good. I'm really good. I got my vaccine shot,
Speaker 2: so I'm good.
Speaker 1: There one or number two?
Speaker 2: Number one, okay, very good weeks, three weeks of good,
Speaker 2: number two. Yeah, I mean, I'm excited to get to
Speaker 2: get to these games. Only three games left in the
Speaker 2: entire NFL season, so that's kind of a bummer.
Speaker 1: I believe they made it, Matt, Like, do you ever
Speaker 1: sit there and think that it's absolutely unreal that they
Speaker 1: made it through the season, not only because coming into it,
Speaker 1: I was very nervous that they were going to be
Speaker 1: able to just get it rolling formally, and then you
Speaker 1: had early on right, you had the postponements with some
Speaker 1: of the games and the extra bye weeks, and then
Speaker 1: things just looked like it was and they just kept
Speaker 1: going and they made it work. It's incredible. That they
Speaker 1: pulled this off.
Speaker 2: I think, yeah, it's really impressive. And look, we're not
Speaker 2: done with football because we're starting to see the schedules
Speaker 2: come out for the FCS, so we're still gonna have that.
Speaker 2: The books in Vegas are gonna have to book those games.
Speaker 2: I mean, people are gonna require it. So we'll still
Speaker 2: have football in the spring. There's no XFL or AF
Speaker 2: this time around, but they'll be you know, Missouri Valley
Speaker 2: and they'll be you know, North Dakota State games and
Speaker 2: other things to watch and bet on. So we'll have
Speaker 2: some spring football, but nothing like you know, high level
Speaker 2: football or the NFL. But yeah, it's incredible and they
Speaker 2: all should be commended for the sacrifices that they voluntarily
Speaker 2: made to go through it all, all the protocols and
Speaker 2: the testing. And look, I've taken I don't know, eight
Speaker 2: or nine tests, seven or eight tests in my life
Speaker 2: for COVID. I couldn't imagine being tested seven times a week. Yeah,
Speaker 2: that's that's a lot, and that's really annoying, and I
Speaker 2: mean that's got to be frustrating. It's gotta be frustrating
Speaker 2: about not being able to go out and do what
Speaker 2: you want to do on the road. So, yeah, it
Speaker 2: is remarkable that we've we've made it all the way
Speaker 2: to where we have fans in the stands for these
Speaker 2: two games coming up Sunday.
Speaker 1: And it's really funny because you used to think about
Speaker 1: when you have whatever, six thousand, seven thousand fans, that
Speaker 1: it would be just like, oh god, that stadium is dead.
Speaker 1: And especially in Buffalo, you were listening to it, you're like,
Speaker 1: oh my goodness.
Speaker 2: You know, I've been making that case on my show
Speaker 2: for like the last week and a half saying normally
Speaker 2: when we're watching games where a stadium of sixty thousand
Speaker 2: has seven thousand, it's apathy. Yeah, these are the diehards
Speaker 2: of the diehards. These are the uber fan that are
Speaker 2: going to these games who have been you know, ticket
Speaker 2: holder for thirty years, who have been dreaming about a
Speaker 2: Buffalo Bills team or a Chiefs you know, dynasty or whatever. Like,
Speaker 2: there's just so many people, and there'll be Bills fans there.
Speaker 2: They had to offer tickets to the Bills their fans,
Speaker 2: So there'll be some Bills fans in Arrowhead, Arrowhead for
Speaker 2: this game in Kansas City. So you know, I think
Speaker 2: it's a really big, big, actually a pretty big factor
Speaker 2: here that there's actually gonna be a home home field
Speaker 2: environment for the first time.
Speaker 1: Well, it's two really good games, so we're gonna get
Speaker 1: into it, so a couple of things. We will have
Speaker 1: one more of these before the Super Bowl. Will do
Speaker 1: our usual Super Bowl show, but we are going to
Speaker 1: be doing additional things during the Super Bowl. Matt and
Speaker 1: I are going to be doing a live stream on
Speaker 1: our YouTube channel YouTube dot com. Slash Betting Pros will
Speaker 1: provide more details, but we're gonna do a lot of
Speaker 1: giveaways and stuff like that, so you're gonna want to
Speaker 1: tune in and be about an hour long with the
Speaker 1: two of us. We'll give you all the details and
Speaker 1: stuff like that before the show, but we'll have that again,
Speaker 1: a ton of giveaways, talking about player props, talking about
Speaker 1: everything we can with the game. There'll also be a
Speaker 1: ton of stuff in our discord channel where you can
Speaker 1: go to Betting Pros dot com slash chat. You should join.
Speaker 1: It's always poppin'. It's a good time, especially on Super
Speaker 1: Bowl Sunday. Yeah, it's going to be it's gonna be
Speaker 1: nuts really in there. It's gonna be a lot of fun.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be hanging out.
Speaker 2: We're giving away T shirts.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, we're gonna be giving away if you don't. Again,
Speaker 1: that's Daily Juice, I assume, and maybe I take for
Speaker 1: granted that everybody listens to this, listens to your Daily
Speaker 1: Juice podcast, because it is the best podcast, of course,
Speaker 1: but we have and I look, just because I invented it,
Speaker 1: I get to say, but we we have tons of
Speaker 1: swag right now, Matt h Are you you're wearing one
Speaker 1: right now?
Speaker 2: Are I'm sporting a Daily Juice very comfortable, very nice,
Speaker 2: and affordable T shirt that's available on fantasypros dot com
Speaker 2: slash shop. Nice.
Speaker 1: Yes, that's correct, right now, right now. We also have
Speaker 1: hoodies that we're gonna get hats.
Speaker 2: Yeah, hoody's already flying off the shelves. But I got
Speaker 2: like seven guys telling me that they bought hoodies already.
Speaker 1: I know that's why. And really it's the you know,
Speaker 1: reaction in our discord channel where everybody's like, I want
Speaker 1: I want to and we're like, okay, great, well we'll
Speaker 1: we'll get it up right away. So we did, so
Speaker 1: it's great and everything like that. Separately, I will note, Matt,
Speaker 1: you mentioned this on you know, Dailing Juice, but bet
Speaker 1: MGM is launching in Michigan tomorrow or today probably by
Speaker 1: the time you listen to this since Matt Friday yep,
Speaker 1: a little bit late on Friday. I can get a
Speaker 1: deposit match on a deposit up to five hundred dollars
Speaker 1: when you use the code Juice one hundred. That is
Speaker 1: the code that we use for Matt's Daily Juice. We're
Speaker 1: using it here as well. Juice one hundred in Michigan.
Speaker 1: One hundred percent match on your first deposit up to
Speaker 1: five hundred dollars. All right, so let's know.
Speaker 2: How angry that makes me. By the way, why do
Speaker 2: you any idea how mad that makes me? Why? Because
Speaker 2: we have nothing like that Vegas. Yeah, zip zero. You're lucky.
Speaker 2: If you get fifty bucks in Vegas when you sign up,
Speaker 2: it's like, great, give me your money. There's no thank you. Hey,
Speaker 2: deposit five hundred bucks, I'm gonna match you five hundred dollars.
Speaker 2: It's five hundred dollars in free bets. I mean that is,
Speaker 2: it's essentially a five hundred dollars free roll you get.
Speaker 2: It's incredible, I mean, it's absolutely incredible.
Speaker 1: It's awesome and I had one before the Juice. But
Speaker 1: when DraftKings came to New Hampshire, we also had a code,
Speaker 1: you know for the show. I used it the headed
Speaker 1: DraftKings and yeah, it's a free five hundred dollars bat.
Speaker 1: You can get aggressive, you can have fun. And I
Speaker 1: still remember, sort of like breaking it down. I have
Speaker 1: a good story. I'll tell you another time about how
Speaker 1: I used it, but yeah, it's it's.
Speaker 2: Just make sure you use it on plus money, folks.
Speaker 2: Just make sure that's the only advice I give you.
Speaker 2: Bet what however you want, make sure you use it
Speaker 2: on plus money.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm sure we all Doss one.
Speaker 2: Ten or Moss one forty, don't bet on Connor McGregor
Speaker 2: with it.
Speaker 1: And I'm sure we all feel really bad for you
Speaker 1: for you know, you don't you miss out and all that,
Speaker 1: but you know you do live in Vegas, Matt, so
Speaker 1: you do get you know, over there. All right, So
Speaker 1: let's let's talk about last week very quickly. You know
Speaker 1: what we did last week, what we've been doing, and
Speaker 1: we can do whatever we want on this one. But
Speaker 1: we were doing one against the spread, pick one over under,
Speaker 1: pick and then one two team teaser that you know
Speaker 1: we both kind of like to do. I had the
Speaker 1: Bucks getting three and a half. Matt and I were
Speaker 1: on the different sides of that game, as we talked about,
Speaker 1: but we both bought the half a point to get
Speaker 1: off three. So I had the Bucks getting three and
Speaker 1: a half and a single game teaser with the Bucks
Speaker 1: plus nine and the over forty five and a half.
Speaker 1: But I also had the under forty five and a
Speaker 1: half on the Rams and Packers game, which I really liked,
Speaker 1: but you know, didn't hit. Of course, Matt, you had
Speaker 1: the Browns and Chiefs under fifty seven, so that was right.
Speaker 1: You missed on the Saints of course, lank two and
Speaker 1: a half. And your teaser was the Rams getting twelve
Speaker 1: and a half and the Ravens getting eight and a half.
Speaker 1: So neither of those legs.
Speaker 2: Yah.
Speaker 1: Actually I know the Ravens really.
Speaker 2: I mean, my other teacher was better. The other teacher,
Speaker 2: my other teaser hit on teasers, but that teaser was disgusting.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you always want to hear more of math picks.
Speaker 1: Listen to Daily Jude. All right, let's get into it here, though.
Speaker 1: Let's start with the Bucks at the Packers and I
Speaker 1: will use the latest odds that we have over at
Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com. Again Betting Pros, that'll give you the
Speaker 1: odds of the various sports books that they have available.
Speaker 1: The Packers are laying three, and there are a couple
Speaker 1: of three and a halfs out there, including my book.
Speaker 1: DraftKings is three and a half right now, but the
Speaker 1: consensus line is three because that's the majority of it.
Speaker 1: The over under is fifty one and a half. And
Speaker 1: I'll give you the money line odds as well, in
Speaker 1: case you think there's any value there. The Bucks are
Speaker 1: plus one point fifty and the Packers right now are
Speaker 1: minus one seventy five. All right, so let's talk about
Speaker 1: this game. Matt general feeling. What do you think?
Speaker 2: So I've been making this joke. I finished the regular
Speaker 2: season up. I think it was like nine units. I've
Speaker 2: given more than half of it back in the play
Speaker 2: and it's been just awful. So I am really gun
Speaker 2: shy when it comes to these two football games. And
Speaker 2: if I had gun to my head, I'll take three.
Speaker 2: I'll take the Packers. They're at home. I think this
Speaker 2: offense is very good. I don't think that Tampa defense
Speaker 2: is very good. I think the turnovers came from Drew
Speaker 2: Brees and Jared Cook just not paying attention. So that
Speaker 2: was a monster And it was twenty to twenty when
Speaker 2: that fumble happened with Jared Cook and then the two
Speaker 2: interceptions happened, it was really rough. They scored twenty one
Speaker 2: points off the three turnovers, really four in totality for
Speaker 2: the New Orleans Saints in that football game. That was
Speaker 2: the difference in that game. It was still only a
Speaker 2: ten point margin, so without the turnovers, Saints probably win
Speaker 2: that game. So I look at the Packers at home.
Speaker 2: I know it's not going to be frigid, but it's
Speaker 2: still a Tampa Bay team in Green Bay, Wisconsin. There's
Speaker 2: still a significant issue there with the weather and just
Speaker 2: being cold and not so much Tom Brady. Everyone's saying, oh,
Speaker 2: Brady's fine in the cold. I understand that point, but
Speaker 2: the problem with it is is Brady played at home
Speaker 2: in New England where they played the entire season. They
Speaker 2: were used to it, they live there. You can't practicing
Speaker 2: the cold in Tampa. So you're gonna go up there,
Speaker 2: have to get situated in twenty four hours to go
Speaker 2: play football, and I don't think it's Brady. I think
Speaker 2: it's the receivers having a tough time hanging on to
Speaker 2: a hard football and then fumbling the football a slick, hard,
Speaker 2: cold football. So to me, I think these turnovers are
Speaker 2: gonna flip flop. I think Tampa turns the football over
Speaker 2: and I think the Packers win the game in cover.
Speaker 1: Okay, so let's talk about something that I'm sure a
Speaker 1: lot of our listeners are thinking about right now, Matt.
Speaker 1: These teams met back in Week six, I believe, and
Speaker 1: the Bucks trounced them thirty eight ten. That was Rogers'
Speaker 1: worst game in the season. You're throwing that entirely out
Speaker 1: at this point when you're thinking.
Speaker 2: Of and neveryone throw out the two wins for the
Speaker 2: Saints over the Bucks last week.
Speaker 1: No, I'm not telling you it's wrong.
Speaker 2: I'm saying, isn't that what everyone said? So, No, you
Speaker 2: can't beat a team two three times? It's really hard.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, but that's a different situation, right, that's
Speaker 1: a third time. That's the third time two teams that
Speaker 1: you know generally. I know Brady wasn't there, but they
Speaker 1: know each other pretty well. Of course, they played twice
Speaker 1: every year. This was like a dominant performance here by
Speaker 1: the by, you know, but yeah, a dominant performance by
Speaker 1: the Saints of course at some point, but a dominant
Speaker 1: but the only game that Rogers has really looked terrible.
Speaker 1: But I'm just saying, are you you're throwing it out?
Speaker 1: Doesn't matter at all.
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter at all. It's nothing to me. It
Speaker 2: was another year, it was a lifetime ago.
Speaker 1: I'm in agreement with you. I want to make that
Speaker 1: clear so extent anybody took that as me being like, Matt,
Speaker 1: what are you doing, I'm in agreement with you that
Speaker 1: I do not care about the game.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: I went back and I watched that game, okay, like recently,
Speaker 1: because I wanted to see what it was going to
Speaker 1: look like. That game was bizarre, so you know, I
Speaker 1: mean not bizarre, I guess, but it was just much
Speaker 1: more of like surprising how little the Packers adapted to it.
Speaker 1: You know, the offensively right, because Rogers is playing at
Speaker 1: such a high level. The offense is playing at such
Speaker 1: a high level, and you know, Rogers likes to take
Speaker 1: the clock down right to the end of you know,
Speaker 1: two seconds left and then snap the ball. And it
Speaker 1: was just sort of like Rogers I felt like the
Speaker 1: Bucks kept disguising what they were doing, and Rogers never
Speaker 1: took any steps to try to figure it out, Like
Speaker 1: he was just like, I'm just gonna wait the whole
Speaker 1: time like we usually do. No trying to get them
Speaker 1: to jump, no trying to see what they were in.
Speaker 1: He's just gonna it's not gonna be the same right now.
Speaker 1: Rogers is playing too well. And again I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I think the weather is a factor here not I
Speaker 1: think you put it summed it up very very well.
Speaker 1: It's not Brady. Okay, we're not criticizing and saying Brady
Speaker 1: can't play in the cult. Of course, he's played in
Speaker 1: New England his entire career. But I do think that
Speaker 1: it's different for the rest of the team, like they're
Speaker 1: just not really going to be used to that. But
Speaker 1: I lean towards the Packers. I don't love it, Matt.
Speaker 1: For me, again, I'm at draftings, so it's at three
Speaker 1: and a half. I don't love it at three and
Speaker 1: a half. I just don't the hook really really.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, any of the three, I mean the three is,
Speaker 2: I wouldn't play it because there's so many Every book
Speaker 2: in Vegas is at three. I mean nobody at three
Speaker 2: and a half in Vegas. So just to give you
Speaker 2: an idea that essentially what this line is. Okay, it's
Speaker 2: kind of basic, but this is what happens Tampa. If
Speaker 2: you're at three and a half, you're getting Buck money.
Speaker 2: If you're at two and a half, you're getting Packer money.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: That's basically wherever you're setting the number. So DraftKings needs
Speaker 2: for whatever reason, DraftKings needs Tampa Bay money. That's why
Speaker 2: that's why they're at three and a half, because they
Speaker 2: must have gotten a couple of monster bets on the Packers,
Speaker 2: so they're trying to get other money. They're trying to
Speaker 2: get money on the Bucks at plus three and a
Speaker 2: half to kind of, you know, balance that out, or
Speaker 2: to try to limit the liability they've got on the game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, realistically, you expect this to be a close game.
Speaker 1: You expect a like a three roughly a three point
Speaker 1: game or something close to it.
Speaker 2: See, this is my question because of the teaser. I
Speaker 2: want to play that everybody in the in their lives
Speaker 2: are going to play. Every better is going to have
Speaker 2: this ticket plus nine plus nine everyone. Yeah, I'm nervous
Speaker 2: about a Packer or blowout.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: I really, I'm really nervous about the Packers killing the
Speaker 2: teaser because the Packers go ahead and win, and a
Speaker 2: part of me wants to tease through zero, and part
Speaker 2: of me wants to take Packers massa zero because there
Speaker 2: is no real difference. There's no real difference between plus
Speaker 2: three and plus three, so I think the Packers could
Speaker 2: win big. It's the second leg that I needed on.
Speaker 2: I need the points, not on this leg. I need
Speaker 2: the points on the Bills and Chief's leg. So that's
Speaker 2: one reason why I could see myself violating that rule
Speaker 2: and teasing through zero. But I hate, hate, hate, and
Speaker 2: don't like doing that. So, as I said, I'm I'm
Speaker 2: all over the place here. The teaser I'm gonna play
Speaker 2: is actually on the total in this game to me.
Speaker 1: Too, very so I have that my two team teaser
Speaker 1: is going to take I mean spoiler alert, but my
Speaker 1: two team teaser is going to be taking the bills
Speaker 1: up to nine.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna be teasing the total down on this
Speaker 1: one and taking the over you're.
Speaker 2: Doing, yeah, exact, same bet, yep, exactly, because that's my
Speaker 2: two teams yep.
Speaker 1: Yes, that's mine as well. I've already bet it, and
Speaker 1: I think that that, oh why did.
Speaker 2: You why didn't you wait until what? Until the until
Speaker 2: you get four or five? Until you're gonna get You're
Speaker 2: gonna get the second that Patrick Mahomes is cleared to
Speaker 2: play that number is not saying it three and a half.
Speaker 1: Okay, so three, Yeah, I've got a three, all right,
Speaker 1: so that might be first of all number one. I'll
Speaker 1: bet it again if so, and again if it goes.
Speaker 1: If it goes to three and a half, doesn't matter
Speaker 1: to me obviously, because you have to get to ten.
Speaker 1: Right with a teaser, it doesn't matter.
Speaker 2: But I oh no, it matters. It really four matters
Speaker 2: on a six point teaser. Getting the ten matters big time.
Speaker 1: I'm saying the difference between three and three and a
Speaker 1: half for me, right, because on a teaser, if you
Speaker 1: if you tie the second leg, you lose. Right.
Speaker 2: No, It's just every every book is different. Some book
Speaker 2: is a push, some book the whole. Some book have
Speaker 2: the whole bets of push. Some books will give you
Speaker 2: the odds on the first leg. But most books is
Speaker 2: a straight push. If one leg, if only one leg
Speaker 2: of the two leg teaser pushes, the whole BET's a push.
Speaker 1: Okay, So the book then I used, I actually haven't
Speaker 1: had it come up yet with racking book that I.
Speaker 2: Think I get to push you get to ten the
Speaker 2: whole book. If it falls on ten, the whole bet
Speaker 2: will be a push.
Speaker 1: Fair enough, fair enough on the book. And that's actually
Speaker 1: my bad because I think I've just been assuming, basically
Speaker 1: because the book that I used to play at when
Speaker 1: I used to live in a place where I could
Speaker 1: was with if you pushed a leg, you lost. So
Speaker 1: that's kind of what I've been so but regardless, so
Speaker 1: we'll get to that game. You know, we'll push that
Speaker 1: game away, Matt when we get there. About what we
Speaker 1: think the spread is going to do, because I I don't.
Speaker 1: You may be absolutely right and putt put it out there.
Speaker 1: You live in Vegas, you are well connected. I'm sure
Speaker 1: you have a better idea of what's going to happen here.
Speaker 1: I have always been assuming that this is price the
Speaker 1: Bills Chiefs game, as if Mahomes is going to.
Speaker 2: Play, But the public hasn't gotten involved yet.
Speaker 1: You think that when Patrick Mahomes, all right, we'll get there.
Speaker 1: Let's let's let's keep up with this game right now.
Speaker 1: I think I agree with you in that I think
Speaker 1: there is an absolute risk here that the Packers destroyed
Speaker 1: the Bucks. I really do, because I get you. You
Speaker 1: called it, Matt like last week's game was not overly
Speaker 1: impressive by the Bucks. It really wasn't. They could have
Speaker 1: easily lost that game had those certain things happened at
Speaker 1: the end of the game and Drew Rees basically he
Speaker 1: really did look like Peyton Manning in the last year
Speaker 1: of his career at this point, and they still were
Speaker 1: in that game, and of course they didn't have you know,
Speaker 1: MVP Deontae Harris, who looked like he was going to
Speaker 1: be a game changer for the first couple.
Speaker 2: Of until he got.
Speaker 1: Until he got hurt, until the first quarter and changed
Speaker 1: the game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was, you know, it was brutal. I mean,
Speaker 2: if he was he was electric, and then everything switched
Speaker 2: when he got hurt. I was like, oh no.
Speaker 1: So, but they did not look overly impressive or against Washington.
Speaker 1: Now they are strong defensively, and they may have videvea
Speaker 1: back here, which only strengthens their run defense.
Speaker 2: So yeah, but I talked to somebody in Tampa about
Speaker 2: that on my show and someone who's actually part of
Speaker 2: the Bucks broadcast, and they don't think that a three
Speaker 2: hundred pound man who hasn't played football for a long time, yep,
Speaker 2: they don't think he's in game shape. So they think
Speaker 2: even if he is in the game, he's on like
Speaker 2: a ten to fifteen snapcount, Like, okay, maybe he makes
Speaker 2: some plays, but they weren't. I thought the same thing.
Speaker 2: I was like, oh, man, maybe you know, if Videvea
Speaker 2: coming back could be a monster in the middle, he
Speaker 2: could chew up a bunch of a bunch of black blockers.
Speaker 2: And they were like, yeah, no, I wouldn't expect him
Speaker 2: to be a big part of the game plan by
Speaker 2: any means. He may play, he may be out there,
Speaker 2: but like, don't expect him to be a you know,
Speaker 2: a twenty five thirty snap type defensive player right.
Speaker 1: Well, you know, regardless of course, even when they lost him,
Speaker 1: the Bucks are still one of the best teams at
Speaker 1: stopping the run, so you know, I think they'll be
Speaker 1: able to do that. But again, against the past, it's
Speaker 1: not like Carlton Davis is gonna take away DeVonta Adams,
Speaker 1: you know, And either way, Rogers are just playing at
Speaker 1: such a high level that he will be able to
Speaker 1: sort of find, you know, the holes in the defense.
Speaker 1: And again, I'm presuming at this point that I'm not
Speaker 1: the only one who has gone back and watched that
Speaker 1: game film of that first game and been like, you know,
Speaker 1: maybe we need to switch this up a little bit
Speaker 1: as to what we were doing because they were getting
Speaker 1: too much pressure on Rogers. They were throwing deep too much.
Speaker 1: So I think they're gonna change that. So I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna be They're gonna be able to put up points.
Speaker 1: And the Packers defense has played better. They're getting more
Speaker 1: pressure lately, and you know, that's sort of the key
Speaker 1: to Brady to get pleasure without blitzing, because when you realise,
Speaker 1: he's just gonna tear you up if you can get
Speaker 1: more pressure without blitzing, and they've been doing that a
Speaker 1: little bit more lately. We don't know whether or not
Speaker 1: Antonio Brown's gonna play. I guess he's trending up, but really,
Speaker 1: you attack the Packers on the ground, so you'll see
Speaker 1: probably a lot of Leonard Fournette. But I do think
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a fair amount of scoring in this game,
Speaker 1: and it is something where it lends itself. I think
Speaker 1: to in game betting. If if you're not if you're
Speaker 1: gunchy about the over at fifty, what did I say
Speaker 1: fifty one and a half? If you're gun shy about that,
Speaker 1: wait for the game and if if one side gets
Speaker 1: up by like ten points or more, then they're just
Speaker 1: both gonna then there's just gonna be a lot of
Speaker 1: a ton of passing and the over is gonna go.
Speaker 1: So that's what I would do with that. I don't
Speaker 1: love Do you like the fifty one and a half
Speaker 1: either way? Matt? Without teasing it? We said, we teach it.
Speaker 2: Think it's right. I think I think the game falls
Speaker 2: somewhere in there. I mean, I could see it falling
Speaker 2: at fifty. You know, that's where my thirty to twenty
Speaker 2: comes in. I'm like, yeah, there's the teaser killer right right.
Speaker 2: If the Packers win by ten, that's it. And can
Speaker 2: they win by ten? Yeah, and then they don't get
Speaker 2: to the total, you know, they don't go to the
Speaker 2: over thirty to twenty. It's a fifty point total, and
Speaker 2: then so you lose on the under or the over
Speaker 2: bet is a loss and the teasers a loss. So
Speaker 2: that's my that's my like uh oh, in my brain
Speaker 2: when I start thinking about how I would bet this,
Speaker 2: that's the scenario that scares me the most.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again with this, Matt, like, when I look
Speaker 1: at the two teams, you know they're both you know,
Speaker 1: at this point, you know they're both They match up
Speaker 1: pretty well. They're both solid defensively, they both have excellent quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: I can both move the ball through the air, decent
Speaker 1: run game, and everything like that. They match up pretty
Speaker 1: well against each other to the point where when you
Speaker 1: look at it, yeah, three point spread feels right. But
Speaker 1: like you I just I kind of have this feeling
Speaker 1: that the Packers may just come out and smash them,
Speaker 1: you know, Like I have this like just nagging feeling
Speaker 1: in the back of my mind that in the cold
Speaker 1: in Green Bay, they're just gonna come out and be
Speaker 1: totally ready to avenge that loss.
Speaker 2: So well, I think there's also a point that I've
Speaker 2: been making on my radio show a little bit that
Speaker 2: I haven't heard enough about across the country. Is it
Speaker 2: so Rogers has one ring. The list of quarterbacks who
Speaker 2: have one ring, it's pretty long. The list of quarterbacks
Speaker 2: who have two rings, it's not that long list of
Speaker 2: quarterbacks are three rings or more is really short. So
Speaker 2: I mean Rogers can put himself in the big ben
Speaker 2: in the you know, in the Peyton Manning. I mean
Speaker 2: he can put himself into a category. I mean John
Speaker 2: always got three, but he can put himself into a
Speaker 2: category that you're like, huh, this is a different you know,
Speaker 2: we're no longer discussing far versus Rogers. And I think
Speaker 2: that extra ring. The winner of this game, in my mind,
Speaker 2: is gonna win the championship. So yeah, I really do.
Speaker 2: I think the winner of this wins at all. And
Speaker 2: I think I've got a bet on the Packers, so
Speaker 2: like a party me is like I thought the Packers
Speaker 2: were the best team in football three weeks ago when
Speaker 2: I made the bet, and I just got to ride
Speaker 2: it here. So I do have, like my other play,
Speaker 2: I don't normally do two team parlays, but I think
Speaker 2: at FanDuel you could have gotten this this morning if
Speaker 2: you took moneyline Packers money line Chiefs. You get plus
Speaker 2: one fifty one odds on it. Really yeah, so it's
Speaker 2: not bad. It's not a bad two leg teaser to
Speaker 2: two leg parlay, just straight money line number one Seeds win.
Speaker 2: Number one Seeds make their way to Tampa. I mean,
Speaker 2: I think it's a decent way of playing it. I mean,
Speaker 2: I think it's a it's a decent way of not
Speaker 2: having to worry about the points and worry about something
Speaker 2: screwy happening with missed extra points or strange fumbles at
Speaker 2: the end or whatever. Just Chiefs win, Packers win, and
Speaker 2: you're at plus one fifty one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got a draft Kings right now because I've
Speaker 1: just pulled it up. I always like to have it up, Matt,
Speaker 1: just so I can check exactly where we are. It's
Speaker 1: at one forty six, so it's it's right around there.
Speaker 1: I do again, I think basically where I've come down
Speaker 1: on this, and it is something where I think the
Speaker 1: line is fair, is absolutely right. I could see it
Speaker 1: being a close game. But I'm starting, as I've just
Speaker 1: looked into this more and more, I kind of just
Speaker 1: I have this feeling like the pack Like I'm more
Speaker 1: confident that the Packers are gonna win, way more confident
Speaker 1: that the Packers are gonna win than I am that
Speaker 1: the Chiefs win, even with Mahomes playing in that game.
Speaker 1: So let's get to that game. Then, I think basically
Speaker 1: where we come at as is at three, we like
Speaker 1: the Packers, right, you're willing you're are you gonna bet
Speaker 1: that with the Packers laying three?
Speaker 2: Don't know yet? Okay, no, no, no, I told you
Speaker 2: i'd I've been. I may be more exotic than being
Speaker 2: then just taking straight sides and totals, we could give
Speaker 2: me how bad I've been.
Speaker 1: Oh, and look, we are at a point right now
Speaker 1: where the lines are so sharp, you know, because they
Speaker 1: have so much data and stuff like that. So do
Speaker 1: I love of three or three and a half on
Speaker 1: either of these games?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 1: I don't at all. So you know, I don't think
Speaker 1: I would actually bout out. I'll make a play on
Speaker 1: one of the sides at this point, right, but at
Speaker 1: three and a half, like, I think there's value on
Speaker 1: the bucks, but I won't bet it because I just
Speaker 1: have the feeling like the Packers are going to kind
Speaker 1: of run with this one. So and I love the
Speaker 1: total either. I think this total is right on, like
Speaker 1: you at fifty one and a half money line parlay
Speaker 1: is very interesting. But let's get to the second game now, Matt,
Speaker 1: because you know you let let's start with the first
Speaker 1: thing kind of that we we already teed up a
Speaker 1: little bit. You think that once Mahomes is declared in
Speaker 1: and I think at this point there's there's it's almost
Speaker 1: a certainty at this point that he's going to play
Speaker 1: just right. Okay, So you think when that comes in,
Speaker 1: the public is going to come in hard on the
Speaker 1: chiefs and the line is going to move? Yes, how
Speaker 1: high do you think it gets?
Speaker 2: Four? Four and a half?
Speaker 1: Really? Okay? So that's interesting to me because and out
Speaker 1: of curiosity, is this just the Matt Parral sort of
Speaker 1: way of thinking, or have you talked to bookmakers who
Speaker 1: are both affecting that, I mean.
Speaker 2: But both I mean. The expectation is if you have
Speaker 2: bet the bills, you already bet them, because you could
Speaker 2: have gotten four here in Vegas at an open The
Speaker 2: open number in Vegas was four. So if you wanted
Speaker 2: if you I guess, not the open but it was bet.
Speaker 2: It was. It was seesawed in the first six hours
Speaker 2: of it being open to what finally stopped where it
Speaker 2: opened up. One book had Chiefs miss two and a half,
Speaker 2: another book had bills miss one and a half, and
Speaker 2: then it all kind of homogenized together. Once the bets
Speaker 2: started to fly in, but that was because one book
Speaker 2: was banking on Mahomes. Another book was saying Mahomes is
Speaker 2: going to be out. So after it all kind of
Speaker 2: the dust settled, it was at four and you could
Speaker 2: find four all over town. So if you wanted to
Speaker 2: bills at four, you've already bet them. That's why the
Speaker 2: line came down to three. So we've seen nothing but
Speaker 2: basically bills money come in. So the packer, sorry, the
Speaker 2: chief money hasn't showed up yet, and so we're gonna
Speaker 2: get chief money. When Mahomes is cleared to play and
Speaker 2: there's no questions, he's out, he's out of the protocol
Speaker 2: and there's no more question. You will see one hundred thousand,
Speaker 2: two hundred thousand, three hundred thousand. I mean, all all
Speaker 2: that stuff will hit will hit it. It will come down hard.
Speaker 2: So I mean that I think is if you like
Speaker 2: the bills.
Speaker 1: Wait now, Matt, don't you think that the sharp money
Speaker 1: will come in on the bills. If it keeps going
Speaker 1: to four, it's gonna be fifty to fifty. Okay?
Speaker 2: The start this is this is a really really hard game.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 2: I mean I think I think the second game is
Speaker 2: harder than the first game.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I don't. I this game is very tough,
Speaker 1: very tough. Now you it's funny because I don't. I
Speaker 1: don't feel that confident. And even if Mahomes plays, because
Speaker 1: at the very least, and we're assuming Mahomes place, at
Speaker 1: the very least, Matt he's gonna be limited by that tell.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's turf toe. We assume right that he
Speaker 1: has there with the toe injury that he suffered. I mean,
Speaker 1: he if he's limping around that Mahomes limping around is
Speaker 1: still probably the best quarterback in the NFL, but it
Speaker 1: does take you know, his mobility being limited, that does
Speaker 1: take away from him. So you think, though that they're
Speaker 1: gonna you so confident that they're going to win this game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I mean, I am. Here's here's how
Speaker 2: Here's how I feel about this game. I love the
Speaker 2: under It's my favorite play of the game. Okay, at
Speaker 2: fifty three and a half, Okay, I like teasing the
Speaker 2: bills up because I don't think the Chiefs beat anybody
Speaker 2: by big numbers anymore.
Speaker 1: They don't cover ever at no ever.
Speaker 2: So yes, and so I like getting four and a
Speaker 2: half to five and teasing it up to ten or
Speaker 2: eleven with the Bills. That's my second favorite play. And
Speaker 2: then if I had to go ahead and bet it,
Speaker 2: I'd take money line Chiefs. Okay, all right, that's that's
Speaker 2: kind of I'm trying to ensure myself a little bit
Speaker 2: that if I'm really wrong, if the Bills come out
Speaker 2: and win by like thirty, Okay, I'm alright, because that
Speaker 2: blows up the money line parlay.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: I think Patrick mahomes mobility is a big problem. If
Speaker 2: he can't run around and he can't move, that's a
Speaker 2: big issue. His arm still the arm, Okay, I'm not
Speaker 2: I'm not saying you can't throw the football. He can,
Speaker 2: but if he can't plant properly, or if he hurts
Speaker 2: it early in the game, if he gets, you know, sacked,
Speaker 2: and he hurts the foot early in the game, forget
Speaker 2: the head. I mean, the foot's a bigger worry to me,
Speaker 2: to be honest with you, that than any concussion is
Speaker 2: show you'll be having no. So, I just the Bills
Speaker 2: defense has been playing really well and the Chiefs aren't
Speaker 2: scoring touchdowns right now, they're kicking a ton of field goals. Yes,
Speaker 2: So That's why the under is my favorite play of
Speaker 2: the game. Is you know, if I had to bet
Speaker 2: a side on it, or I had to be you know,
Speaker 2: your side or total, I'm taking the total and going
Speaker 2: under three and a half.
Speaker 1: The only part of this game I'm touching is and
Speaker 1: again if it moves up, I'll bet. I'll just bet
Speaker 1: it again for sure. But I'm comfortable at plus nine
Speaker 1: because I don't think there's I will be floored if
Speaker 1: the Chiefs win this game by nine points or more like,
Speaker 1: I'll be absolutely.
Speaker 2: I know a lot of sharp people that like the
Speaker 2: Bills just plus three and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm telling you, I feel like if I have to
Speaker 1: place a bet, I would do it. But Matt, you
Speaker 1: remember that game early in the season when we took
Speaker 1: Chiefs against the Ravens, when Mahlomes was getting money and
Speaker 1: we were just like, right, why would you ever bet
Speaker 1: against Patrick? Well, like, you know, it was just sort
Speaker 1: of watching. It's almost comical what he can do. If
Speaker 1: he is remotely close to one hundred percent and even limited,
Speaker 1: they could have put up a ton of points against Cleveland.
Speaker 1: I mean, what he can do, you know, limping around
Speaker 1: is better than any mortal man. But the Bills, and
Speaker 1: this is I'm very interested to hear your take on it,
Speaker 1: because you you have faded the Bills for the most
Speaker 1: part all season long. But I'm so impressed by the Bills.
Speaker 1: And you know, against the Ravens, I realized that, you know,
Speaker 1: Lamar doesn't throw that pick six, and that game could
Speaker 1: have turned out very, very differently. Baltimore played a great
Speaker 1: game defensively, but it was really really windy, like incredibly windy.
Speaker 1: I don't really blame them the Bills, you know, I'm
Speaker 1: just trying to like break it down. The Bills get
Speaker 1: an extra day of rest here, and again you have
Speaker 1: the Holmes, who's sort of you now, is a little
Speaker 1: banged up. You know, the Bills are great in the
Speaker 1: red zone. Part of it is because Josh Allen Can
Speaker 1: you know, has the rushing threat obviously, but you know,
Speaker 1: he's just playing in an exceptionally high, well high level.
Speaker 1: Casey's not great as a red zone defense, Like, they're
Speaker 1: not that good at keeping teams out of the end
Speaker 1: zone once they get there. So the Bills are going
Speaker 1: to be able to put up points in this game.
Speaker 1: And that's especially true given the fact that everybody on
Speaker 1: the Chiefs is injured. Like, just in thinking about how
Speaker 1: this game's gonn unfold, Breeland is injured. I think he's
Speaker 1: gonna play. He's practicing, but you know, maybe Cech plays.
Speaker 1: I guess Watkins plays, and we guess Mahomes plays. But again,
Speaker 1: the Chiefs defense just hasn't been quite that as good
Speaker 1: in the second half against the pass, like, it's just
Speaker 1: not quite as good. I mean, you looked at Mayfield.
Speaker 1: He was able to move the ball pretty well. The
Speaker 1: Bills linebackers are playing really well. You know, I don't know, man,
Speaker 1: I'm getting like a weird I'm not going to bet
Speaker 1: against Patrick mall I'm just not, like, because it's a
Speaker 1: horrible thing to do. So even though the Bills at
Speaker 1: plus three I think is the right side at this one,
Speaker 1: I'm not going to actually place a bet on it.
Speaker 1: But I don't know, man, especially with Mahomes, he's not
Speaker 1: going to be one hundred percent right, Like that's the
Speaker 1: one thing we know, right, He's just not gonna be
Speaker 1: able to move around.
Speaker 2: Well, Okay, so I got a couple of things on
Speaker 2: ye Josh Allen. All right, So the Buffalo Bills do
Speaker 2: not run the ball. Yes, They've simply just stopped. So
Speaker 2: Brian Dabble not being a head coach saying he's gonna
Speaker 2: stay for one more year, I think we underestimate that
Speaker 2: a little bit because now he's focused on just this team,
Speaker 2: just this quarterback. And I really wonder if Look, Buffalo
Speaker 2: is a cold weather team going to Kansas City, so
Speaker 2: they're not going to be affected by any cold weather,
Speaker 2: which I think is a major benefit to them because
Speaker 2: a lot of teams that go to Kansas City are
Speaker 2: frozen when they get there. Yeah, and especially in I
Speaker 2: mean I've been to a playoff game at Arrowhead in
Speaker 2: January and I've sat nearly near the top of the
Speaker 2: bleachers and I nearly froze to death. I mean, it's
Speaker 2: just super super cold and really really raw. That's the
Speaker 2: thing about it. It's just it's a biting cold in
Speaker 2: Kansas City. So I don't think that the chief the
Speaker 2: Chiefs will have a big advantage over the Bills there,
Speaker 2: nor of a Josh Allen who's a quarterback play at Wyoming.
Speaker 2: So that's okay. The wins a major factor. I got
Speaker 2: to I want to find out it looks like eleven
Speaker 2: mile pro or win Gus. That's not that big of
Speaker 2: a deal, but I just I want to make sure
Speaker 2: that stays there not get buffaloed again like last time
Speaker 2: with the Ravens game. And so that's important. And then
Speaker 2: I look at the red zone offense for the Bills
Speaker 2: and the red zone offense with the Chiefs, and my
Speaker 2: hope is that Kansas City will hold the Bills to
Speaker 2: a bunch of field goals because it's hard to pass
Speaker 2: in the red zone. If you can't run the ball
Speaker 2: in the red zone, it can be tough to score.
Speaker 1: I know they're so good Matt at in the red
Speaker 1: zone for offensively, even though they don't run the ball,
Speaker 1: they're still really good at that.
Speaker 2: But it is a championship game, is it's a different moment.
Speaker 2: It's the first time he's ever been here. He wins,
Speaker 2: and he goes to the Super Bowl. I mean, there's
Speaker 2: just a lot of pressure that comes to this. So
Speaker 2: I could see him gripping a little bit. I can
Speaker 2: see him missopen receivers. I mean, this is where I'm
Speaker 2: not the biggest Josh Allen fan, like everybody knows, but
Speaker 2: I think between the twenties, I think this guy right
Speaker 2: now is really really good. So the red zone. I'm
Speaker 2: hoping for field goals from both sides. That's why I
Speaker 2: like the under in this game. But yep, I'm very
Speaker 2: interested to see what Kansas City's pressure package is and
Speaker 2: if they're just gonna blitz the holy heck out of
Speaker 2: Josh Allen and say, okay, we trust our guys one
Speaker 2: on one. Because if so, I think Diggs could have
Speaker 2: a monster game catching football. Yeah, and he could be
Speaker 2: the guy he could be. He could be the key
Speaker 2: to the whole thing. He may have like eight catches
Speaker 2: for one hundred and twenty yards and two touchdowns.
Speaker 1: And the thing is they're usually good against limiting you know,
Speaker 1: they're usually good at limiting wide receivers. They're kind of
Speaker 1: this funnel defense that funnels everything to the middle of
Speaker 1: the field. And it is worth noting now that Cole Beasley,
Speaker 1: who was banged up, is now off although I guess
Speaker 1: he was off the injury report, but then today he
Speaker 1: got back in a limited practice. So if he if
Speaker 1: he were one hundred percent, I think he could actually
Speaker 1: have a big game because I think the middle of
Speaker 1: the field is where you might be able to kind
Speaker 1: of exploit them. If he is limited again, it's going
Speaker 1: to affect him same question. By the way, I realized, Look,
Speaker 1: they they played each other before, and I think this
Speaker 1: was like the Tuesday night game maybe or maybe it
Speaker 1: was Monday Night football. I can't remember exactly when they played.
Speaker 1: But you know, are you again that was twenty six seventeen.
Speaker 1: The Bills ran the ball a ton you know in
Speaker 1: that game or you I assume, like the Green Bay game.
Speaker 1: You're throwing out that game like you don't care about
Speaker 1: it whatsoever.
Speaker 2: I don't care about it. No, I don't care about it.
Speaker 2: I mean it's it's it's been so long ago. I mean,
Speaker 2: this is a different chief team right now. I don't
Speaker 2: know what's going Chiefs having coverage is remember the first.
Speaker 1: I know of season?
Speaker 2: Now what's going on?
Speaker 1: I don't know. That's why I'm saying when that's why,
Speaker 1: like we're like, oh, you want to wait for it
Speaker 1: to get the plus four whatever, I'll take it plus nine.
Speaker 1: I mean, the teams with my more than you know eight,
Speaker 1: I will be absolutely shocked. But sorry, go ahead.
Speaker 2: I don't mean no, I just I just think that
Speaker 2: that's the key to me, Like that's the that's gonna
Speaker 2: be the biggest difference is is you know, I want
Speaker 2: to see it all comes down to Josh Allen. Josh
Speaker 2: Allen plays well, they're gonna win this game. I really
Speaker 2: think it's possible if he doesn't play up up to
Speaker 2: snuff Patrick Mahomes, if they give Patrick Mahomes any daylight,
Speaker 2: I mean, if they give them the football back up
Speaker 2: four with forty five seconds to go, they're gonna lose.
Speaker 2: Like they cannot. They cannot give the Chiefs any daylight
Speaker 2: to win the game, and if they do, they're gonna lose.
Speaker 2: But I think they might be able to keep the
Speaker 2: door closed.
Speaker 1: Okay, So I think, Okay, So here's the thing. If
Speaker 1: the spread does go past three, okay, like you're expecting
Speaker 1: that it will if Mahomes gets in, I really thought
Speaker 1: it would stick at three. But if it does go up,
Speaker 1: I'd probably bite the bullet and take the Bills because
Speaker 1: I think they have a chance to win outright, and
Speaker 1: because I think that the Chiefs just they don't blow
Speaker 1: anybody out anymore, Like that's just not what they do.
Speaker 1: They don't cover anymore. So I would rather take that
Speaker 1: at three. I'm just staying away from it, man, because
Speaker 1: I think the value is on the Bills even at three,
Speaker 1: but I don't want to. I can't bring myself to
Speaker 1: do it. To see what Patrick Mahomes is able to
Speaker 1: do in that game For the total, You like the under,
Speaker 1: I really don't like it. I think the only way
Speaker 1: I'm touching the total is if it's in game and
Speaker 1: the Bills get out to a lead. If the Bills
Speaker 1: get out like they score fourteen points or something like that,
Speaker 1: then it's I think it's gonna turn into a shootout.
Speaker 1: Then I think it's gonna be like what because Mahomes
Speaker 1: is able to put up if he if he needs to,
Speaker 1: they'll score a touchdown in right fifty seconds, right right,
Speaker 1: any anytime. And if they're down by a little bit,
Speaker 1: then I think the total is gonna explode and we'll
Speaker 1: see where it goes. But yeah, other than that, I
Speaker 1: don't know. Man, this game's both these games. I mean,
Speaker 1: the lines are sharp, but it scares me. Manugh, it's
Speaker 1: really just yeah, all right, Well let's get to our
Speaker 1: official picks, Matt. Let's get because we do it. So
Speaker 1: you gotta take a you gotta take a spread, you
Speaker 1: gotta take a side. I know you may not actually
Speaker 1: bet it, but you have to take one side right now,
Speaker 1: what is it?
Speaker 2: Packer's minus three?
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm gonna do the same.
Speaker 2: Because because the Bills aren't. Once the Bills go to
Speaker 2: four to four and a half, out prefer the Bills.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: But right now Bills at three, no, even three and
Speaker 2: a half.
Speaker 1: No, we are we are in the exact same situation then. Ohthough,
Speaker 1: hold on, let me let me check what I said here,
Speaker 1: just to make sure it is three. Okay, yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: with you right now. I'm gonna my favorite one would
Speaker 1: be the Packers minus three. But if the Bills do
Speaker 1: go past the field goal, I will take the Bills.
Speaker 1: That will be my favorite play. And your total that
Speaker 1: you like the most is the Chiefs Bills under.
Speaker 2: Right, fifty three and a half.
Speaker 1: Yep, all right, Chiefs Bills under fifty three and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go just to differentiate it. And again, look,
Speaker 1: I'll be as honest possible because somebody asked this on Twitter, like,
Speaker 1: do you bet everything that you gout, you know, sort
Speaker 1: of talk about and on this. You know, most of
Speaker 1: the time I do on this, I'm not like I'm
Speaker 1: not you know, all that time. I'm not gonna make it.
Speaker 2: I mean, I change. I bet every day, so sorry
Speaker 2: information will. I mean, that was the thing about during
Speaker 2: the football season that we would tape on a Thursday
Speaker 2: and then on Sunday it'd be COVID problems and quarterbacks
Speaker 2: being out and guys not there and it was coaches leaving.
Speaker 2: It was like what the It was just constant chaos.
Speaker 2: So like our plays on Thursday were kind of like
Speaker 2: all right, and we all joked around like talking, you know,
Speaker 2: on Sunday morning, we'll tell you what our real plays
Speaker 2: are because we don't know on Thursday exactly what's gonna happen.
Speaker 2: So it made it far more difficult to bet, you know,
Speaker 2: on on taping to have our plays be actually counting, right.
Speaker 1: And I agree, But I'm going to go the Bucks
Speaker 1: Packers over fifty one and a half. I actually, you know, again,
Speaker 1: both teams are a relatively strong defensively. I just think
Speaker 1: that Aaron Rodgers is playing at a level right now
Speaker 1: where he's not really going to be able to be contained.
Speaker 1: And I think that the Bucks. But I think the
Speaker 1: way the game plays out, if I have to choose
Speaker 1: one way, is that the Packers get ahead, they put
Speaker 1: up some points, you know, and Eventually, Tom you know,
Speaker 1: leads them back, but they do fall short. And because
Speaker 1: of that, I think there are going to be points
Speaker 1: in this game. So I'll go over fifty one and
Speaker 1: a half. But you you said it correctly. That's the line.
Speaker 1: I mean that that's the right line for sure. So
Speaker 1: I don't love it, but if I have to go
Speaker 1: one way, that's what I'm doing. And it sounds like
Speaker 1: we have the same two team teaser, Matt. You're teasing
Speaker 1: that total down in the Packers.
Speaker 2: That'll be the official two team teaser for me.
Speaker 1: Okay, and is it Are you waiting to do it
Speaker 1: for the best because we can say that there's no
Speaker 1: way that the spread here unless Patrick Mahomes is ruled out,
Speaker 1: which we basically are discounting at this point.
Speaker 2: There's no way if he's rolled out the Lions Buffalo
Speaker 2: miles three, right, And so you're so it's a monster difference.
Speaker 1: No, no, no, no. But what I'm saying is you are
Speaker 1: not concerned about that enough to bet it right now
Speaker 1: at moving it from three to nine. You're gonna wait
Speaker 1: to make that bet. I want ten, right, So you're
Speaker 1: what I'm saying is that you think the risk of
Speaker 1: Mahomes being out is so minimal that you're gonna wait
Speaker 1: on this bet to make this two deser, right, Okay, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: yeah yeah.
Speaker 2: So again I got a better chance of growing two
Speaker 2: feet tomorrow night than Mahome's not playing. Okay, it's not happening.
Speaker 1: Least, I don't know you that well, maybe that's a possibility.
Speaker 1: I really it would be weird. But yeah, I agree
Speaker 1: that he's playing again. I will gladly bet it again.
Speaker 1: And the total actually for me when I had it
Speaker 1: was fifty one on the Bucks Packers game. It's now
Speaker 1: fifty one and a half for me pulling it down,
Speaker 1: so it's moving a little bit. I'm fine to take
Speaker 1: it right now at plus three because again I think
Speaker 1: that that's a safe number. I think making that plus
Speaker 1: nine for the Bills is totally safe if Matt's right.
Speaker 1: And again I have been assuming this entire time that
Speaker 1: they put it at plus three, and that they were
Speaker 1: expecting basically like the only way it was going to move,
Speaker 1: most likely was in Buffalo's favor, you know, coming to
Speaker 1: this or whatever. I just I think that they're they're
Speaker 1: going to leave it at plus three like that. That's
Speaker 1: why I think they made that line assuming Mahomes would
Speaker 1: play and that they assume the money. But I will
Speaker 1: trust your judgment, of course, because you know a lot
Speaker 1: more about that side of it than I will. And
Speaker 1: so I'm willing to go with it at plus three.
Speaker 1: If it goes to plus four, I'll bet it again
Speaker 1: and get it ten without question. But that's where we are.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, it's sounds.
Speaker 2: And then the bonus is if you want to do
Speaker 2: a two team money line parlay, you can get plus
Speaker 2: money on Becker's Chiefs.
Speaker 1: That's right, that's right. Yeah, I DraftKings one forty six.
Speaker 1: He's had a fandle one fifty one. That's not a
Speaker 1: bad way to go. And again, on that leg of it,
Speaker 1: I feel I feel more confident that the Packers are
Speaker 1: going to beat the Bucks than I need. The Chiefs
Speaker 1: are gonna beat the.
Speaker 2: Bills, And you can flip it around if you want
Speaker 2: to change it up, if you if you think that
Speaker 2: you think the Bills are gonna win the game. Outright,
Speaker 2: you can get even better money on that.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that's right.
Speaker 2: That's like plus two hundred bills a Bill's moneyline parlay
Speaker 2: with the Packers, you know, and I think that is
Speaker 2: a real good shot. That's what I'm gonna wind.
Speaker 1: Up with plus two seventy seven.
Speaker 2: Man, Dang, they made me nearly three to one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's not a bad one actually to U to
Speaker 1: consider doing all right.
Speaker 2: I just think that. I just think the Bills find
Speaker 2: a way to blow it. It's late.
Speaker 1: I just find a way to give Homes given the
Speaker 1: Bills history.
Speaker 2: Yes, yep, I'm just giving you. I think it's Mahomes
Speaker 2: magic at home. I just think there's something there where
Speaker 2: the Bills are gonna do something stupid. They're gonna punt
Speaker 2: on a fourth down they shouldn't punt on. They're gonna
Speaker 2: give that little crack to Patrick Mahomes, and then he'll
Speaker 2: blow that thing and he'll win the game. Like I think,
Speaker 2: I don't think recover.
Speaker 1: But really what it comes down to is exactly that,
Speaker 1: which is why I can't make the bet, which is
Speaker 1: you have to give Patrick Mahomes zero options, zero chances
Speaker 1: to win that game or to whatever you want to do.
Speaker 1: You have to give him zero because if you give
Speaker 1: him a sliver, gimpy or not, he's going to make
Speaker 1: it happen. Which is why I just cam bring myself.
Speaker 2: I mean, just win the game, right, I mean it
Speaker 2: can be like they can be down twenty six to
Speaker 2: twenty yeah, and you get the football back to them
Speaker 2: and then tend to go in one time out and
Speaker 2: Mahomes goes eighty yards and scores a game winning touchdown.
Speaker 2: You lose twenty seven to twenty six.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like these are really I.
Speaker 2: Can easily see that happening. So you cover your bills teaser,
Speaker 2: and you cover your bills plus three and a half
Speaker 2: or plus four, yeah, but you get your Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 2: money line parlay.
Speaker 1: Yeah to hit. Yeah. All right, Well, obviously Matt will
Speaker 1: give his official sort of Daily Juice plays on the
Speaker 1: Daily Juice podcast, and we will certainly have props. I've
Speaker 1: got a couple of ideas already, Matt. On props, I'm
Speaker 1: I'm starting to look at it because some of them
Speaker 1: are out. I know, they don't come out for you
Speaker 1: right until they have I'd.
Speaker 2: Like that basically, like get them Saturday night.
Speaker 1: Yeah you had to live in Vegas, Matt, poor guy.
Speaker 1: But yes, I'll get them a little early, so I'll
Speaker 1: try to get into you. And again, Matt will be
Speaker 1: doing a live stream this weekend on Sunday, eleven o'clock
Speaker 1: usual time at a wonderful YouTube dot com slash betting pros.
Speaker 1: Go ahead there, we'll have our props and then again
Speaker 1: we'll be doing something big for the Super Bowl. I
Speaker 1: will let you guys know what that is. And again
Speaker 1: join our discord betting bros dot com slash chat. We
Speaker 1: were in there all the time and we'll be doing
Speaker 1: that during the Super Bowl. Until then, enjoy this weekend's games.
Speaker 1: It's going to be fun and we will talk to
Speaker 1: you not next week, but the week after talking about
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl.