WEBVTT - NFL Conference Championship Best Bets (Ep. 74) 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:17.120 Hey, everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Bros NFL Podcast. 0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:19.040 I'm your host Dan Harris with me is Matt Pearl. 0:00:19.120 --> 0:00:21.200 Find us on Twitter at Dan Harris ad and that 0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:24.160 Sports Talk. Matt, Matt, I mean, I know how you're 0:00:24.200 --> 0:00:26.320 doing because I've been sitting here listening to you sweat 0:00:26.320 --> 0:00:28.920 a bet. But how are you doing for the listener's sake? 0:00:29.240 --> 0:00:33.680 I'm good. I'm really good. I got my vaccine shot, 0:00:33.800 --> 0:00:34.760 so I'm good. 0:00:34.760 --> 0:00:35.920 There one or number two? 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:39.360 Number one, okay, very good weeks, three weeks of good, 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:42.440 number two. Yeah, I mean, I'm excited to get to 0:00:42.640 --> 0:00:44.400 get to these games. Only three games left in the 0:00:44.520 --> 0:00:46.440 entire NFL season, so that's kind of a bummer. 0:00:46.720 --> 0:00:49.640 I believe they made it, Matt, Like, do you ever 0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:53.640 sit there and think that it's absolutely unreal that they 0:00:53.760 --> 0:00:56.400 made it through the season, not only because coming into it, 0:00:56.480 --> 0:00:58.160 I was very nervous that they were going to be 0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:01.000 able to just get it rolling formally, and then you 0:01:01.160 --> 0:01:03.760 had early on right, you had the postponements with some 0:01:03.800 --> 0:01:06.160 of the games and the extra bye weeks, and then 0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:08.520 things just looked like it was and they just kept 0:01:08.560 --> 0:01:10.880 going and they made it work. It's incredible. That they 0:01:10.880 --> 0:01:11.479 pulled this off. 0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:14.320 I think, yeah, it's really impressive. And look, we're not 0:01:14.360 --> 0:01:16.520 done with football because we're starting to see the schedules 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:19.400 come out for the FCS, so we're still gonna have that. 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:21.480 The books in Vegas are gonna have to book those games. 0:01:21.520 --> 0:01:23.920 I mean, people are gonna require it. So we'll still 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:27.040 have football in the spring. There's no XFL or AF 0:01:27.120 --> 0:01:30.039 this time around, but they'll be you know, Missouri Valley 0:01:30.080 --> 0:01:32.280 and they'll be you know, North Dakota State games and 0:01:32.319 --> 0:01:34.440 other things to watch and bet on. So we'll have 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:36.560 some spring football, but nothing like you know, high level 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:39.920 football or the NFL. But yeah, it's incredible and they 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:42.600 all should be commended for the sacrifices that they voluntarily 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:45.320 made to go through it all, all the protocols and 0:01:45.360 --> 0:01:48.120 the testing. And look, I've taken I don't know, eight 0:01:48.200 --> 0:01:50.040 or nine tests, seven or eight tests in my life 0:01:50.120 --> 0:01:53.800 for COVID. I couldn't imagine being tested seven times a week. Yeah, 0:01:53.920 --> 0:01:56.680 that's that's a lot, and that's really annoying, and I 0:01:56.920 --> 0:01:59.320 mean that's got to be frustrating. It's gotta be frustrating 0:01:59.360 --> 0:02:01.000 about not being able to go out and do what 0:02:01.040 --> 0:02:03.040 you want to do on the road. So, yeah, it 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:05.320 is remarkable that we've we've made it all the way 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:07.680 to where we have fans in the stands for these 0:02:07.680 --> 0:02:08.800 two games coming up Sunday. 0:02:09.080 --> 0:02:10.960 And it's really funny because you used to think about 0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:13.519 when you have whatever, six thousand, seven thousand fans, that 0:02:13.560 --> 0:02:16.160 it would be just like, oh god, that stadium is dead. 0:02:16.200 --> 0:02:18.960 And especially in Buffalo, you were listening to it, you're like, 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:20.119 oh my goodness. 0:02:20.200 --> 0:02:22.040 You know, I've been making that case on my show 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:25.000 for like the last week and a half saying normally 0:02:25.040 --> 0:02:28.200 when we're watching games where a stadium of sixty thousand 0:02:28.200 --> 0:02:32.000 has seven thousand, it's apathy. Yeah, these are the diehards 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:35.520 of the diehards. These are the uber fan that are 0:02:35.520 --> 0:02:37.799 going to these games who have been you know, ticket 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:40.840 holder for thirty years, who have been dreaming about a 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:44.680 Buffalo Bills team or a Chiefs you know, dynasty or whatever. Like, 0:02:44.800 --> 0:02:48.080 there's just so many people, and there'll be Bills fans there. 0:02:48.120 --> 0:02:51.000 They had to offer tickets to the Bills their fans, 0:02:51.120 --> 0:02:54.639 So there'll be some Bills fans in Arrowhead, Arrowhead for 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:57.359 this game in Kansas City. So you know, I think 0:02:57.360 --> 0:02:59.840 it's a really big, big, actually a pretty big factor 0:02:59.840 --> 0:03:01.880 here that there's actually gonna be a home home field 0:03:02.000 --> 0:03:03.120 environment for the first time. 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:05.440 Well, it's two really good games, so we're gonna get 0:03:05.440 --> 0:03:07.280 into it, so a couple of things. We will have 0:03:07.440 --> 0:03:09.760 one more of these before the Super Bowl. Will do 0:03:09.800 --> 0:03:11.720 our usual Super Bowl show, but we are going to 0:03:11.760 --> 0:03:14.280 be doing additional things during the Super Bowl. Matt and 0:03:14.280 --> 0:03:16.359 I are going to be doing a live stream on 0:03:16.639 --> 0:03:19.560 our YouTube channel YouTube dot com. Slash Betting Pros will 0:03:19.560 --> 0:03:21.160 provide more details, but we're gonna do a lot of 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:23.280 giveaways and stuff like that, so you're gonna want to 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:25.160 tune in and be about an hour long with the 0:03:25.160 --> 0:03:26.720 two of us. We'll give you all the details and 0:03:26.720 --> 0:03:29.200 stuff like that before the show, but we'll have that again, 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:31.640 a ton of giveaways, talking about player props, talking about 0:03:31.639 --> 0:03:33.760 everything we can with the game. There'll also be a 0:03:33.800 --> 0:03:36.320 ton of stuff in our discord channel where you can 0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:39.080 go to Betting Pros dot com slash chat. You should join. 0:03:39.160 --> 0:03:41.760 It's always poppin'. It's a good time, especially on Super 0:03:41.760 --> 0:03:44.400 Bowl Sunday. Yeah, it's going to be it's gonna be 0:03:44.480 --> 0:03:46.280 nuts really in there. It's gonna be a lot of fun. 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:47.000 I'm gonna be hanging out. 0:03:47.000 --> 0:03:48.200 We're giving away T shirts. 0:03:48.360 --> 0:03:50.600 Oh yeah, we're gonna be giving away if you don't. Again, 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:53.040 that's Daily Juice, I assume, and maybe I take for 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:55.240 granted that everybody listens to this, listens to your Daily 0:03:55.280 --> 0:03:57.720 Juice podcast, because it is the best podcast, of course, 0:03:58.120 --> 0:04:00.640 but we have and I look, just because I invented it, 0:04:00.680 --> 0:04:03.600 I get to say, but we we have tons of 0:04:03.640 --> 0:04:05.720 swag right now, Matt h Are you you're wearing one 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:06.000 right now? 0:04:06.040 --> 0:04:09.880 Are I'm sporting a Daily Juice very comfortable, very nice, 0:04:09.920 --> 0:04:13.360 and affordable T shirt that's available on fantasypros dot com 0:04:13.400 --> 0:04:14.600 slash shop. Nice. 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:18.200 Yes, that's correct, right now, right now. We also have 0:04:18.240 --> 0:04:19.360 hoodies that we're gonna get hats. 0:04:19.440 --> 0:04:21.840 Yeah, hoody's already flying off the shelves. But I got 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:24.120 like seven guys telling me that they bought hoodies already. 0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:27.760 I know that's why. And really it's the you know, 0:04:27.839 --> 0:04:30.000 reaction in our discord channel where everybody's like, I want 0:04:30.080 --> 0:04:31.920 I want to and we're like, okay, great, well we'll 0:04:31.960 --> 0:04:34.080 we'll get it up right away. So we did, so 0:04:34.120 --> 0:04:37.000 it's great and everything like that. Separately, I will note, Matt, 0:04:37.040 --> 0:04:39.920 you mentioned this on you know, Dailing Juice, but bet 0:04:40.000 --> 0:04:44.160 MGM is launching in Michigan tomorrow or today probably by 0:04:44.160 --> 0:04:46.000 the time you listen to this since Matt Friday yep, 0:04:46.240 --> 0:04:48.159 a little bit late on Friday. I can get a 0:04:49.279 --> 0:04:52.840 deposit match on a deposit up to five hundred dollars 0:04:52.839 --> 0:04:55.640 when you use the code Juice one hundred. That is 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:57.400 the code that we use for Matt's Daily Juice. We're 0:04:57.440 --> 0:05:00.400 using it here as well. Juice one hundred in Michigan. 0:05:00.520 --> 0:05:02.760 One hundred percent match on your first deposit up to 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:05.080 five hundred dollars. All right, so let's know. 0:05:05.080 --> 0:05:07.680 How angry that makes me. By the way, why do 0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:10.760 you any idea how mad that makes me? Why? Because 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:17.039 we have nothing like that Vegas. Yeah, zip zero. You're lucky. 0:05:17.080 --> 0:05:21.159 If you get fifty bucks in Vegas when you sign up, 0:05:21.200 --> 0:05:25.080 it's like, great, give me your money. There's no thank you. Hey, 0:05:25.120 --> 0:05:28.560 deposit five hundred bucks, I'm gonna match you five hundred dollars. 0:05:28.839 --> 0:05:32.760 It's five hundred dollars in free bets. I mean that is, 0:05:33.120 --> 0:05:35.960 it's essentially a five hundred dollars free roll you get. 0:05:36.320 --> 0:05:38.279 It's incredible, I mean, it's absolutely incredible. 0:05:38.440 --> 0:05:40.320 It's awesome and I had one before the Juice. But 0:05:40.320 --> 0:05:43.400 when DraftKings came to New Hampshire, we also had a code, 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:45.880 you know for the show. I used it the headed 0:05:46.040 --> 0:05:48.640 DraftKings and yeah, it's a free five hundred dollars bat. 0:05:48.680 --> 0:05:50.240 You can get aggressive, you can have fun. And I 0:05:50.279 --> 0:05:52.400 still remember, sort of like breaking it down. I have 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:54.480 a good story. I'll tell you another time about how 0:05:54.480 --> 0:05:57.080 I used it, but yeah, it's it's. 0:05:56.920 --> 0:05:58.760 Just make sure you use it on plus money, folks. 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:00.800 Just make sure that's the only advice I give you. 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:02.640 Bet what however you want, make sure you use it 0:06:02.680 --> 0:06:03.520 on plus money. 0:06:03.680 --> 0:06:05.360 Yeah, and I'm sure we all Doss one. 0:06:05.240 --> 0:06:07.600 Ten or Moss one forty, don't bet on Connor McGregor 0:06:07.640 --> 0:06:07.840 with it. 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:10.080 And I'm sure we all feel really bad for you 0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:12.200 for you know, you don't you miss out and all that, 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:14.680 but you know you do live in Vegas, Matt, so 0:06:14.760 --> 0:06:17.960 you do get you know, over there. All right, So 0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:21.000 let's let's talk about last week very quickly. You know 0:06:21.080 --> 0:06:22.920 what we did last week, what we've been doing, and 0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:24.440 we can do whatever we want on this one. But 0:06:24.480 --> 0:06:27.840 we were doing one against the spread, pick one over under, 0:06:28.000 --> 0:06:30.320 pick and then one two team teaser that you know 0:06:30.360 --> 0:06:32.400 we both kind of like to do. I had the 0:06:32.400 --> 0:06:34.240 Bucks getting three and a half. Matt and I were 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:36.840 on the different sides of that game, as we talked about, 0:06:36.839 --> 0:06:39.080 but we both bought the half a point to get 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:40.680 off three. So I had the Bucks getting three and 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:42.919 a half and a single game teaser with the Bucks 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:45.000 plus nine and the over forty five and a half. 0:06:45.200 --> 0:06:46.840 But I also had the under forty five and a 0:06:46.880 --> 0:06:49.280 half on the Rams and Packers game, which I really liked, 0:06:49.480 --> 0:06:51.720 but you know, didn't hit. Of course, Matt, you had 0:06:51.720 --> 0:06:54.080 the Browns and Chiefs under fifty seven, so that was right. 0:06:54.120 --> 0:06:55.800 You missed on the Saints of course, lank two and 0:06:55.839 --> 0:06:58.560 a half. And your teaser was the Rams getting twelve 0:06:58.600 --> 0:07:00.480 and a half and the Ravens getting eight and a half. 0:07:00.560 --> 0:07:01.719 So neither of those legs. 0:07:01.760 --> 0:07:01.960 Yah. 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:04.080 Actually I know the Ravens really. 0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:06.479 I mean, my other teacher was better. The other teacher, 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:10.560 my other teaser hit on teasers, but that teaser was disgusting. 0:07:10.720 --> 0:07:12.559 Yeah, you always want to hear more of math picks. 0:07:12.600 --> 0:07:14.880 Listen to Daily Jude. All right, let's get into it here, though. 0:07:14.960 --> 0:07:17.040 Let's start with the Bucks at the Packers and I 0:07:17.080 --> 0:07:19.320 will use the latest odds that we have over at 0:07:19.320 --> 0:07:21.600 bettingpros dot com. Again Betting Pros, that'll give you the 0:07:21.640 --> 0:07:23.840 odds of the various sports books that they have available. 0:07:24.040 --> 0:07:26.960 The Packers are laying three, and there are a couple 0:07:27.040 --> 0:07:29.800 of three and a halfs out there, including my book. 0:07:29.880 --> 0:07:32.680 DraftKings is three and a half right now, but the 0:07:32.720 --> 0:07:34.920 consensus line is three because that's the majority of it. 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:37.520 The over under is fifty one and a half. And 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:39.160 I'll give you the money line odds as well, in 0:07:39.160 --> 0:07:41.080 case you think there's any value there. The Bucks are 0:07:41.120 --> 0:07:43.840 plus one point fifty and the Packers right now are 0:07:43.960 --> 0:07:46.560 minus one seventy five. All right, so let's talk about 0:07:46.560 --> 0:07:48.800 this game. Matt general feeling. What do you think? 0:07:51.360 --> 0:07:54.360 So I've been making this joke. I finished the regular 0:07:54.440 --> 0:07:57.440 season up. I think it was like nine units. I've 0:07:57.480 --> 0:08:00.000 given more than half of it back in the play 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:04.600 and it's been just awful. So I am really gun 0:08:04.720 --> 0:08:07.560 shy when it comes to these two football games. And 0:08:08.520 --> 0:08:11.240 if I had gun to my head, I'll take three. 0:08:11.520 --> 0:08:14.560 I'll take the Packers. They're at home. I think this 0:08:14.640 --> 0:08:17.520 offense is very good. I don't think that Tampa defense 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:20.640 is very good. I think the turnovers came from Drew 0:08:20.680 --> 0:08:23.720 Brees and Jared Cook just not paying attention. So that 0:08:23.800 --> 0:08:25.560 was a monster And it was twenty to twenty when 0:08:25.560 --> 0:08:27.720 that fumble happened with Jared Cook and then the two 0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:30.280 interceptions happened, it was really rough. They scored twenty one 0:08:30.320 --> 0:08:33.920 points off the three turnovers, really four in totality for 0:08:34.360 --> 0:08:36.320 the New Orleans Saints in that football game. That was 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:38.080 the difference in that game. It was still only a 0:08:38.080 --> 0:08:41.240 ten point margin, so without the turnovers, Saints probably win 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:44.640 that game. So I look at the Packers at home. 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:47.400 I know it's not going to be frigid, but it's 0:08:47.440 --> 0:08:50.680 still a Tampa Bay team in Green Bay, Wisconsin. There's 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:53.440 still a significant issue there with the weather and just 0:08:53.480 --> 0:08:56.439 being cold and not so much Tom Brady. Everyone's saying, oh, 0:08:56.440 --> 0:08:59.080 Brady's fine in the cold. I understand that point, but 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:01.400 the problem with it is is Brady played at home 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:03.520 in New England where they played the entire season. They 0:09:03.520 --> 0:09:05.719 were used to it, they live there. You can't practicing 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:08.040 the cold in Tampa. So you're gonna go up there, 0:09:08.559 --> 0:09:10.880 have to get situated in twenty four hours to go 0:09:10.960 --> 0:09:13.040 play football, and I don't think it's Brady. I think 0:09:13.040 --> 0:09:15.440 it's the receivers having a tough time hanging on to 0:09:15.520 --> 0:09:19.319 a hard football and then fumbling the football a slick, hard, 0:09:19.440 --> 0:09:22.360 cold football. So to me, I think these turnovers are 0:09:22.360 --> 0:09:25.200 gonna flip flop. I think Tampa turns the football over 0:09:25.520 --> 0:09:27.440 and I think the Packers win the game in cover. 0:09:28.040 --> 0:09:30.920 Okay, so let's talk about something that I'm sure a 0:09:30.960 --> 0:09:33.000 lot of our listeners are thinking about right now, Matt. 0:09:33.120 --> 0:09:36.280 These teams met back in Week six, I believe, and 0:09:36.480 --> 0:09:40.520 the Bucks trounced them thirty eight ten. That was Rogers' 0:09:40.520 --> 0:09:43.760 worst game in the season. You're throwing that entirely out 0:09:43.800 --> 0:09:44.840 at this point when you're thinking. 0:09:44.679 --> 0:09:46.680 Of and neveryone throw out the two wins for the 0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:48.160 Saints over the Bucks last week. 0:09:48.480 --> 0:09:49.720 No, I'm not telling you it's wrong. 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:52.640 I'm saying, isn't that what everyone said? So, No, you 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:54.760 can't beat a team two three times? It's really hard. 0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:59.119 Well, I mean, but that's a different situation, right, that's 0:09:59.160 --> 0:10:02.000 a third time. That's the third time two teams that 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:04.400 you know generally. I know Brady wasn't there, but they 0:10:04.480 --> 0:10:06.880 know each other pretty well. Of course, they played twice 0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:10.320 every year. This was like a dominant performance here by 0:10:10.520 --> 0:10:12.800 the by, you know, but yeah, a dominant performance by 0:10:12.800 --> 0:10:14.680 the Saints of course at some point, but a dominant 0:10:14.679 --> 0:10:17.760 but the only game that Rogers has really looked terrible. 0:10:17.880 --> 0:10:19.719 But I'm just saying, are you you're throwing it out? 0:10:19.760 --> 0:10:20.480 Doesn't matter at all. 0:10:20.679 --> 0:10:22.160 It doesn't matter at all. It's nothing to me. It 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:24.000 was another year, it was a lifetime ago. 0:10:24.440 --> 0:10:26.480 I'm in agreement with you. I want to make that 0:10:26.520 --> 0:10:29.120 clear so extent anybody took that as me being like, Matt, 0:10:29.120 --> 0:10:30.920 what are you doing, I'm in agreement with you that 0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:33.080 I do not care about the game. 0:10:33.240 --> 0:10:33.400 Now. 0:10:33.440 --> 0:10:36.679 I went back and I watched that game, okay, like recently, 0:10:36.679 --> 0:10:38.640 because I wanted to see what it was going to 0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:42.480 look like. That game was bizarre, so you know, I 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:44.480 mean not bizarre, I guess, but it was just much 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:50.160 more of like surprising how little the Packers adapted to it. 0:10:50.200 --> 0:10:52.480 You know, the offensively right, because Rogers is playing at 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:54.600 such a high level. The offense is playing at such 0:10:54.600 --> 0:10:57.480 a high level, and you know, Rogers likes to take 0:10:57.520 --> 0:10:59.800 the clock down right to the end of you know, 0:11:00.480 --> 0:11:03.520 two seconds left and then snap the ball. And it 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:07.240 was just sort of like Rogers I felt like the 0:11:07.280 --> 0:11:09.920 Bucks kept disguising what they were doing, and Rogers never 0:11:09.960 --> 0:11:13.080 took any steps to try to figure it out, Like 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:15.040 he was just like, I'm just gonna wait the whole 0:11:15.080 --> 0:11:17.400 time like we usually do. No trying to get them 0:11:17.400 --> 0:11:19.199 to jump, no trying to see what they were in. 0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:21.480 He's just gonna it's not gonna be the same right now. 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:24.600 Rogers is playing too well. And again I agree with you. 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:27.439 I think the weather is a factor here not I 0:11:27.520 --> 0:11:29.480 think you put it summed it up very very well. 0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:32.199 It's not Brady. Okay, we're not criticizing and saying Brady 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:33.720 can't play in the cult. Of course, he's played in 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:36.320 New England his entire career. But I do think that 0:11:36.640 --> 0:11:39.160 it's different for the rest of the team, like they're 0:11:39.200 --> 0:11:42.160 just not really going to be used to that. But 0:11:42.320 --> 0:11:45.600 I lean towards the Packers. I don't love it, Matt. 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:47.679 For me, again, I'm at draftings, so it's at three 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:50.199 and a half. I don't love it at three and 0:11:50.240 --> 0:11:52.640 a half. I just don't the hook really really. 0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:55.120 Oh yeah, any of the three, I mean the three is, 0:11:56.080 --> 0:11:58.280 I wouldn't play it because there's so many Every book 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:00.679 in Vegas is at three. I mean nobody at three 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:02.319 and a half in Vegas. So just to give you 0:12:02.360 --> 0:12:07.559 an idea that essentially what this line is. Okay, it's 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:10.679 kind of basic, but this is what happens Tampa. If 0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:12.880 you're at three and a half, you're getting Buck money. 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:15.600 If you're at two and a half, you're getting Packer money. 0:12:15.760 --> 0:12:16.000 Yep. 0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:19.400 That's basically wherever you're setting the number. So DraftKings needs 0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:23.040 for whatever reason, DraftKings needs Tampa Bay money. That's why 0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:25.040 that's why they're at three and a half, because they 0:12:25.080 --> 0:12:27.200 must have gotten a couple of monster bets on the Packers, 0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:30.600 so they're trying to get other money. They're trying to 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:32.959 get money on the Bucks at plus three and a 0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:36.200 half to kind of, you know, balance that out, or 0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:38.800 to try to limit the liability they've got on the game. 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:42.000 Yeah, realistically, you expect this to be a close game. 0:12:42.120 --> 0:12:44.760 You expect a like a three roughly a three point 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:46.120 game or something close to it. 0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:50.640 See, this is my question because of the teaser. I 0:12:50.640 --> 0:12:52.280 want to play that everybody in the in their lives 0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:54.360 are going to play. Every better is going to have 0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:59.480 this ticket plus nine plus nine everyone. Yeah, I'm nervous 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:00.600 about a Packer or blowout. 0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:01.480 Yep. 0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:04.480 I really, I'm really nervous about the Packers killing the 0:13:04.520 --> 0:13:06.680 teaser because the Packers go ahead and win, and a 0:13:06.720 --> 0:13:08.800 part of me wants to tease through zero, and part 0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:14.080 of me wants to take Packers massa zero because there 0:13:14.120 --> 0:13:16.880 is no real difference. There's no real difference between plus 0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:18.800 three and plus three, so I think the Packers could 0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:21.280 win big. It's the second leg that I needed on. 0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:23.480 I need the points, not on this leg. I need 0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:27.240 the points on the Bills and Chief's leg. So that's 0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:30.000 one reason why I could see myself violating that rule 0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:33.480 and teasing through zero. But I hate, hate, hate, and 0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:36.480 don't like doing that. So, as I said, I'm I'm 0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:39.680 all over the place here. The teaser I'm gonna play 0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:43.240 is actually on the total in this game to me. 0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:47.040 Too, very so I have that my two team teaser 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:50.040 is going to take I mean spoiler alert, but my 0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:52.079 two team teaser is going to be taking the bills 0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:52.680 up to nine. 0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:53.000 Yep. 0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:55.000 And I'm gonna be teasing the total down on this 0:13:55.040 --> 0:13:56.600 one and taking the over you're. 0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:59.600 Doing, yeah, exact, same bet, yep, exactly, because that's my 0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:00.439 two teams yep. 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:02.920 Yes, that's mine as well. I've already bet it, and 0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:04.760 I think that that, oh why did. 0:14:04.640 --> 0:14:08.120 You why didn't you wait until what? Until the until 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:11.720 you get four or five? Until you're gonna get You're 0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:14.520 gonna get the second that Patrick Mahomes is cleared to 0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:17.439 play that number is not saying it three and a half. 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:21.560 Okay, so three, Yeah, I've got a three, all right, 0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:24.560 so that might be first of all number one. I'll 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:26.840 bet it again if so, and again if it goes. 0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:28.560 If it goes to three and a half, doesn't matter 0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:30.760 to me obviously, because you have to get to ten. 0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:33.120 Right with a teaser, it doesn't matter. 0:14:33.760 --> 0:14:37.280 But I oh no, it matters. It really four matters 0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:39.960 on a six point teaser. Getting the ten matters big time. 0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:42.800 I'm saying the difference between three and three and a 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:45.480 half for me, right, because on a teaser, if you 0:14:45.680 --> 0:14:48.720 if you tie the second leg, you lose. Right. 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:51.720 No, It's just every every book is different. Some book 0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:53.920 is a push, some book the whole. Some book have 0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:56.440 the whole bets of push. Some books will give you 0:14:56.720 --> 0:15:00.120 the odds on the first leg. But most books is 0:15:00.120 --> 0:15:02.320 a straight push. If one leg, if only one leg 0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:05.000 of the two leg teaser pushes, the whole BET's a push. 0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:07.280 Okay, So the book then I used, I actually haven't 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:09.000 had it come up yet with racking book that I. 0:15:09.240 --> 0:15:11.560 Think I get to push you get to ten the 0:15:11.600 --> 0:15:14.160 whole book. If it falls on ten, the whole bet 0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:14.800 will be a push. 0:15:14.840 --> 0:15:17.600 Fair enough, fair enough on the book. And that's actually 0:15:17.640 --> 0:15:19.920 my bad because I think I've just been assuming, basically 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:21.480 because the book that I used to play at when 0:15:21.480 --> 0:15:22.720 I used to live in a place where I could 0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:25.560 was with if you pushed a leg, you lost. So 0:15:25.600 --> 0:15:27.720 that's kind of what I've been so but regardless, so 0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:29.840 we'll get to that game. You know, we'll push that 0:15:29.880 --> 0:15:32.760 game away, Matt when we get there. About what we 0:15:32.880 --> 0:15:35.480 think the spread is going to do, because I I don't. 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:39.040 You may be absolutely right and putt put it out there. 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:41.880 You live in Vegas, you are well connected. I'm sure 0:15:41.920 --> 0:15:43.760 you have a better idea of what's going to happen here. 0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:46.680 I have always been assuming that this is price the 0:15:46.720 --> 0:15:49.440 Bills Chiefs game, as if Mahomes is going to. 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:52.400 Play, But the public hasn't gotten involved yet. 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:55.760 You think that when Patrick Mahomes, all right, we'll get there. 0:15:56.200 --> 0:15:58.360 Let's let's let's keep up with this game right now. 0:15:58.520 --> 0:16:00.520 I think I agree with you in that I think 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:05.040 there is an absolute risk here that the Packers destroyed 0:16:05.080 --> 0:16:07.800 the Bucks. I really do, because I get you. You 0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:11.480 called it, Matt like last week's game was not overly 0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:14.720 impressive by the Bucks. It really wasn't. They could have 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:18.160 easily lost that game had those certain things happened at 0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:20.160 the end of the game and Drew Rees basically he 0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:22.320 really did look like Peyton Manning in the last year 0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:24.640 of his career at this point, and they still were 0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:27.000 in that game, and of course they didn't have you know, 0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:29.760 MVP Deontae Harris, who looked like he was going to 0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:32.000 be a game changer for the first couple. 0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:33.280 Of until he got. 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:36.520 Until he got hurt, until the first quarter and changed 0:16:36.520 --> 0:16:36.920 the game. 0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:40.120 Yeah, I was, you know, it was brutal. I mean, 0:16:40.160 --> 0:16:42.760 if he was he was electric, and then everything switched 0:16:42.760 --> 0:16:44.880 when he got hurt. I was like, oh no. 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:48.440 So, but they did not look overly impressive or against Washington. 0:16:48.440 --> 0:16:51.240 Now they are strong defensively, and they may have videvea 0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:54.240 back here, which only strengthens their run defense. 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:56.800 So yeah, but I talked to somebody in Tampa about 0:16:56.800 --> 0:16:59.200 that on my show and someone who's actually part of 0:16:59.200 --> 0:17:02.600 the Bucks broadcast, and they don't think that a three 0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:06.480 hundred pound man who hasn't played football for a long time, yep, 0:17:06.840 --> 0:17:08.800 they don't think he's in game shape. So they think 0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:10.359 even if he is in the game, he's on like 0:17:10.400 --> 0:17:12.960 a ten to fifteen snapcount, Like, okay, maybe he makes 0:17:12.960 --> 0:17:15.880 some plays, but they weren't. I thought the same thing. 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:18.080 I was like, oh, man, maybe you know, if Videvea 0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:19.720 coming back could be a monster in the middle, he 0:17:19.760 --> 0:17:22.680 could chew up a bunch of a bunch of black blockers. 0:17:22.960 --> 0:17:25.520 And they were like, yeah, no, I wouldn't expect him 0:17:25.520 --> 0:17:26.960 to be a big part of the game plan by 0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:28.960 any means. He may play, he may be out there, 0:17:29.000 --> 0:17:30.800 but like, don't expect him to be a you know, 0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:34.080 a twenty five thirty snap type defensive player right. 0:17:34.000 --> 0:17:36.280 Well, you know, regardless of course, even when they lost him, 0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:38.320 the Bucks are still one of the best teams at 0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:41.040 stopping the run, so you know, I think they'll be 0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:43.640 able to do that. But again, against the past, it's 0:17:43.680 --> 0:17:48.399 not like Carlton Davis is gonna take away DeVonta Adams, 0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:50.320 you know, And either way, Rogers are just playing at 0:17:50.359 --> 0:17:52.479 such a high level that he will be able to 0:17:52.680 --> 0:17:55.399 sort of find, you know, the holes in the defense. 0:17:55.400 --> 0:17:58.040 And again, I'm presuming at this point that I'm not 0:17:58.119 --> 0:17:59.879 the only one who has gone back and watched that 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:01.959 game film of that first game and been like, you know, 0:18:02.040 --> 0:18:03.800 maybe we need to switch this up a little bit 0:18:03.840 --> 0:18:05.359 as to what we were doing because they were getting 0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:07.960 too much pressure on Rogers. They were throwing deep too much. 0:18:08.080 --> 0:18:09.399 So I think they're gonna change that. So I think 0:18:09.440 --> 0:18:11.359 they're gonna be They're gonna be able to put up points. 0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:14.920 And the Packers defense has played better. They're getting more 0:18:14.960 --> 0:18:17.240 pressure lately, and you know, that's sort of the key 0:18:17.320 --> 0:18:20.480 to Brady to get pleasure without blitzing, because when you realise, 0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:22.440 he's just gonna tear you up if you can get 0:18:22.440 --> 0:18:24.639 more pressure without blitzing, and they've been doing that a 0:18:24.680 --> 0:18:26.720 little bit more lately. We don't know whether or not 0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:29.560 Antonio Brown's gonna play. I guess he's trending up, but really, 0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:31.920 you attack the Packers on the ground, so you'll see 0:18:31.920 --> 0:18:33.920 probably a lot of Leonard Fournette. But I do think 0:18:33.920 --> 0:18:36.680 there's gonna be a fair amount of scoring in this game, 0:18:37.600 --> 0:18:40.800 and it is something where it lends itself. I think 0:18:40.840 --> 0:18:44.040 to in game betting. If if you're not if you're 0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:46.560 gunchy about the over at fifty, what did I say 0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:49.040 fifty one and a half? If you're gun shy about that, 0:18:49.400 --> 0:18:52.800 wait for the game and if if one side gets 0:18:52.880 --> 0:18:55.399 up by like ten points or more, then they're just 0:18:55.480 --> 0:18:57.119 both gonna then there's just gonna be a lot of 0:18:57.160 --> 0:18:58.879 a ton of passing and the over is gonna go. 0:18:58.960 --> 0:18:59.920 So that's what I would do with that. I don't 0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:01.520 love Do you like the fifty one and a half 0:19:01.600 --> 0:19:03.879 either way? Matt? Without teasing it? We said, we teach it. 0:19:03.880 --> 0:19:06.720 Think it's right. I think I think the game falls 0:19:06.720 --> 0:19:08.560 somewhere in there. I mean, I could see it falling 0:19:08.600 --> 0:19:11.800 at fifty. You know, that's where my thirty to twenty 0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:15.920 comes in. I'm like, yeah, there's the teaser killer right right. 0:19:16.000 --> 0:19:18.679 If the Packers win by ten, that's it. And can 0:19:18.720 --> 0:19:21.400 they win by ten? Yeah, and then they don't get 0:19:21.400 --> 0:19:22.760 to the total, you know, they don't go to the 0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:25.720 over thirty to twenty. It's a fifty point total, and 0:19:25.760 --> 0:19:27.680 then so you lose on the under or the over 0:19:27.760 --> 0:19:30.919 bet is a loss and the teasers a loss. So 0:19:31.560 --> 0:19:34.119 that's my that's my like uh oh, in my brain 0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:36.080 when I start thinking about how I would bet this, 0:19:36.359 --> 0:19:38.200 that's the scenario that scares me the most. 0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:40.800 Yeah, and again with this, Matt, like, when I look 0:19:40.840 --> 0:19:42.919 at the two teams, you know they're both you know, 0:19:42.960 --> 0:19:45.239 at this point, you know they're both They match up 0:19:45.400 --> 0:19:48.960 pretty well. They're both solid defensively, they both have excellent quarterbacks. 0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:51.480 I can both move the ball through the air, decent 0:19:51.560 --> 0:19:53.639 run game, and everything like that. They match up pretty 0:19:53.640 --> 0:19:55.639 well against each other to the point where when you 0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:58.080 look at it, yeah, three point spread feels right. But 0:19:58.400 --> 0:20:02.320 like you I just I kind of have this feeling 0:20:02.840 --> 0:20:06.720 that the Packers may just come out and smash them, 0:20:06.960 --> 0:20:10.000 you know, Like I have this like just nagging feeling 0:20:10.000 --> 0:20:11.520 in the back of my mind that in the cold 0:20:12.080 --> 0:20:15.280 in Green Bay, they're just gonna come out and be 0:20:15.640 --> 0:20:17.800 totally ready to avenge that loss. 0:20:17.840 --> 0:20:19.879 So well, I think there's also a point that I've 0:20:19.920 --> 0:20:21.280 been making on my radio show a little bit that 0:20:21.280 --> 0:20:23.280 I haven't heard enough about across the country. Is it 0:20:23.720 --> 0:20:27.480 so Rogers has one ring. The list of quarterbacks who 0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:30.800 have one ring, it's pretty long. The list of quarterbacks 0:20:30.800 --> 0:20:33.639 who have two rings, it's not that long list of 0:20:33.720 --> 0:20:36.720 quarterbacks are three rings or more is really short. So 0:20:36.960 --> 0:20:39.440 I mean Rogers can put himself in the big ben 0:20:39.600 --> 0:20:41.800 in the you know, in the Peyton Manning. I mean 0:20:41.840 --> 0:20:43.840 he can put himself into a category. I mean John 0:20:43.840 --> 0:20:46.439 always got three, but he can put himself into a 0:20:46.440 --> 0:20:51.040 category that you're like, huh, this is a different you know, 0:20:51.040 --> 0:20:55.680 we're no longer discussing far versus Rogers. And I think 0:20:55.720 --> 0:20:58.760 that extra ring. The winner of this game, in my mind, 0:20:58.880 --> 0:21:02.480 is gonna win the championship. So yeah, I really do. 0:21:02.640 --> 0:21:05.080 I think the winner of this wins at all. And 0:21:05.160 --> 0:21:07.280 I think I've got a bet on the Packers, so 0:21:07.600 --> 0:21:09.479 like a party me is like I thought the Packers 0:21:09.480 --> 0:21:11.520 were the best team in football three weeks ago when 0:21:11.560 --> 0:21:13.720 I made the bet, and I just got to ride 0:21:13.760 --> 0:21:18.600 it here. So I do have, like my other play, 0:21:18.680 --> 0:21:22.480 I don't normally do two team parlays, but I think 0:21:23.080 --> 0:21:26.640 at FanDuel you could have gotten this this morning if 0:21:26.640 --> 0:21:31.119 you took moneyline Packers money line Chiefs. You get plus 0:21:31.119 --> 0:21:35.880 one fifty one odds on it. Really yeah, so it's 0:21:35.960 --> 0:21:38.280 not bad. It's not a bad two leg teaser to 0:21:38.440 --> 0:21:41.840 two leg parlay, just straight money line number one Seeds win. 0:21:42.400 --> 0:21:46.640 Number one Seeds make their way to Tampa. I mean, 0:21:46.640 --> 0:21:48.440 I think it's a decent way of playing it. I mean, 0:21:48.560 --> 0:21:50.000 I think it's a it's a decent way of not 0:21:50.040 --> 0:21:52.160 having to worry about the points and worry about something 0:21:52.240 --> 0:21:55.359 screwy happening with missed extra points or strange fumbles at 0:21:55.400 --> 0:21:59.240 the end or whatever. Just Chiefs win, Packers win, and 0:21:59.280 --> 0:22:00.600 you're at plus one fifty one. 0:22:00.960 --> 0:22:02.879 Yeah, I've got a draft Kings right now because I've 0:22:02.920 --> 0:22:04.520 just pulled it up. I always like to have it up, Matt, 0:22:04.520 --> 0:22:06.640 just so I can check exactly where we are. It's 0:22:06.640 --> 0:22:09.200 at one forty six, so it's it's right around there. 0:22:09.640 --> 0:22:13.200 I do again, I think basically where I've come down 0:22:13.240 --> 0:22:15.959 on this, and it is something where I think the 0:22:15.960 --> 0:22:18.240 line is fair, is absolutely right. I could see it 0:22:18.240 --> 0:22:20.840 being a close game. But I'm starting, as I've just 0:22:21.000 --> 0:22:23.399 looked into this more and more, I kind of just 0:22:23.480 --> 0:22:26.120 I have this feeling like the pack Like I'm more 0:22:26.119 --> 0:22:28.320 confident that the Packers are gonna win, way more confident 0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:30.000 that the Packers are gonna win than I am that 0:22:30.080 --> 0:22:33.200 the Chiefs win, even with Mahomes playing in that game. 0:22:33.359 --> 0:22:35.360 So let's get to that game. Then, I think basically 0:22:35.400 --> 0:22:38.000 where we come at as is at three, we like 0:22:38.040 --> 0:22:40.200 the Packers, right, you're willing you're are you gonna bet 0:22:40.200 --> 0:22:41.480 that with the Packers laying three? 0:22:41.880 --> 0:22:45.040 Don't know yet? Okay, no, no, no, I told you 0:22:45.040 --> 0:22:48.680 i'd I've been. I may be more exotic than being 0:22:48.960 --> 0:22:51.000 then just taking straight sides and totals, we could give 0:22:51.000 --> 0:22:51.840 me how bad I've been. 0:22:52.119 --> 0:22:54.880 Oh, and look, we are at a point right now 0:22:54.880 --> 0:22:57.679 where the lines are so sharp, you know, because they 0:22:57.680 --> 0:22:59.600 have so much data and stuff like that. So do 0:22:59.640 --> 0:23:01.720 I love of three or three and a half on 0:23:01.760 --> 0:23:02.480 either of these games? 0:23:02.520 --> 0:23:02.680 No? 0:23:02.760 --> 0:23:05.600 I don't at all. So you know, I don't think 0:23:05.600 --> 0:23:07.520 I would actually bout out. I'll make a play on 0:23:07.520 --> 0:23:09.280 one of the sides at this point, right, but at 0:23:09.280 --> 0:23:11.560 three and a half, like, I think there's value on 0:23:11.560 --> 0:23:13.280 the bucks, but I won't bet it because I just 0:23:13.400 --> 0:23:15.280 have the feeling like the Packers are going to kind 0:23:15.280 --> 0:23:16.879 of run with this one. So and I love the 0:23:16.920 --> 0:23:18.639 total either. I think this total is right on, like 0:23:18.680 --> 0:23:21.240 you at fifty one and a half money line parlay 0:23:21.320 --> 0:23:23.680 is very interesting. But let's get to the second game now, Matt, 0:23:23.720 --> 0:23:26.760 because you know you let let's start with the first 0:23:26.760 --> 0:23:28.600 thing kind of that we we already teed up a 0:23:28.640 --> 0:23:31.159 little bit. You think that once Mahomes is declared in 0:23:31.240 --> 0:23:34.800 and I think at this point there's there's it's almost 0:23:34.840 --> 0:23:37.040 a certainty at this point that he's going to play 0:23:37.080 --> 0:23:39.879 just right. Okay, So you think when that comes in, 0:23:40.040 --> 0:23:42.280 the public is going to come in hard on the 0:23:42.359 --> 0:23:45.000 chiefs and the line is going to move? Yes, how 0:23:45.080 --> 0:23:46.040 high do you think it gets? 0:23:46.520 --> 0:23:47.679 Four? Four and a half? 0:23:48.080 --> 0:23:54.680 Really? Okay? So that's interesting to me because and out 0:23:54.680 --> 0:23:57.720 of curiosity, is this just the Matt Parral sort of 0:23:57.880 --> 0:24:00.520 way of thinking, or have you talked to bookmakers who 0:24:00.600 --> 0:24:02.240 are both affecting that, I mean. 0:24:02.160 --> 0:24:05.760 But both I mean. The expectation is if you have 0:24:05.840 --> 0:24:09.440 bet the bills, you already bet them, because you could 0:24:09.440 --> 0:24:12.320 have gotten four here in Vegas at an open The 0:24:12.359 --> 0:24:15.520 open number in Vegas was four. So if you wanted 0:24:15.920 --> 0:24:18.160 if you I guess, not the open but it was bet. 0:24:18.200 --> 0:24:20.320 It was. It was seesawed in the first six hours 0:24:20.320 --> 0:24:23.119 of it being open to what finally stopped where it 0:24:23.160 --> 0:24:25.800 opened up. One book had Chiefs miss two and a half, 0:24:25.880 --> 0:24:27.760 another book had bills miss one and a half, and 0:24:27.760 --> 0:24:29.960 then it all kind of homogenized together. Once the bets 0:24:29.960 --> 0:24:32.680 started to fly in, but that was because one book 0:24:32.760 --> 0:24:35.080 was banking on Mahomes. Another book was saying Mahomes is 0:24:35.080 --> 0:24:37.719 going to be out. So after it all kind of 0:24:38.320 --> 0:24:40.920 the dust settled, it was at four and you could 0:24:40.920 --> 0:24:43.000 find four all over town. So if you wanted to 0:24:43.040 --> 0:24:44.760 bills at four, you've already bet them. That's why the 0:24:44.800 --> 0:24:47.399 line came down to three. So we've seen nothing but 0:24:47.520 --> 0:24:51.480 basically bills money come in. So the packer, sorry, the 0:24:51.760 --> 0:24:54.640 chief money hasn't showed up yet, and so we're gonna 0:24:54.640 --> 0:24:57.280 get chief money. When Mahomes is cleared to play and 0:24:57.280 --> 0:24:59.280 there's no questions, he's out, he's out of the protocol 0:24:59.280 --> 0:25:02.480 and there's no more question. You will see one hundred thousand, 0:25:02.520 --> 0:25:05.720 two hundred thousand, three hundred thousand. I mean, all all 0:25:05.800 --> 0:25:09.040 that stuff will hit will hit it. It will come down hard. 0:25:09.400 --> 0:25:13.560 So I mean that I think is if you like 0:25:13.640 --> 0:25:14.640 the bills. 0:25:14.520 --> 0:25:18.320 Wait now, Matt, don't you think that the sharp money 0:25:18.400 --> 0:25:20.440 will come in on the bills. If it keeps going 0:25:20.440 --> 0:25:22.639 to four, it's gonna be fifty to fifty. Okay? 0:25:22.920 --> 0:25:26.840 The start this is this is a really really hard game. 0:25:27.000 --> 0:25:27.320 Okay. 0:25:27.359 --> 0:25:29.080 I mean I think I think the second game is 0:25:29.080 --> 0:25:30.000 harder than the first game. 0:25:30.080 --> 0:25:32.400 Oh yeah, I don't. I this game is very tough, 0:25:32.640 --> 0:25:34.720 very tough. Now you it's funny because I don't. I 0:25:34.720 --> 0:25:37.480 don't feel that confident. And even if Mahomes plays, because 0:25:37.520 --> 0:25:40.160 at the very least, and we're assuming Mahomes place, at 0:25:40.160 --> 0:25:42.640 the very least, Matt he's gonna be limited by that tell. 0:25:42.680 --> 0:25:44.600 I mean, that's turf toe. We assume right that he 0:25:44.680 --> 0:25:46.719 has there with the toe injury that he suffered. I mean, 0:25:46.720 --> 0:25:50.439 he if he's limping around that Mahomes limping around is 0:25:50.440 --> 0:25:52.600 still probably the best quarterback in the NFL, but it 0:25:52.640 --> 0:25:56.320 does take you know, his mobility being limited, that does 0:25:56.800 --> 0:25:59.520 take away from him. So you think, though that they're 0:25:59.520 --> 0:26:01.560 gonna you so confident that they're going to win this game. 0:26:04.280 --> 0:26:07.320 Yeah, I mean, I mean, I am. Here's here's how 0:26:07.520 --> 0:26:10.000 Here's how I feel about this game. I love the 0:26:10.080 --> 0:26:13.239 under It's my favorite play of the game. Okay, at 0:26:13.280 --> 0:26:16.240 fifty three and a half, Okay, I like teasing the 0:26:16.240 --> 0:26:19.120 bills up because I don't think the Chiefs beat anybody 0:26:19.200 --> 0:26:20.320 by big numbers anymore. 0:26:20.520 --> 0:26:22.320 They don't cover ever at no ever. 0:26:22.560 --> 0:26:26.240 So yes, and so I like getting four and a 0:26:26.320 --> 0:26:28.879 half to five and teasing it up to ten or 0:26:28.960 --> 0:26:32.439 eleven with the Bills. That's my second favorite play. And 0:26:32.480 --> 0:26:34.199 then if I had to go ahead and bet it, 0:26:34.240 --> 0:26:38.640 I'd take money line Chiefs. Okay, all right, that's that's 0:26:38.720 --> 0:26:42.239 kind of I'm trying to ensure myself a little bit 0:26:42.280 --> 0:26:45.560 that if I'm really wrong, if the Bills come out 0:26:45.560 --> 0:26:49.639 and win by like thirty, Okay, I'm alright, because that 0:26:49.680 --> 0:26:51.000 blows up the money line parlay. 0:26:51.320 --> 0:26:51.439 Right. 0:26:52.640 --> 0:26:55.719 I think Patrick mahomes mobility is a big problem. If 0:26:55.720 --> 0:26:57.959 he can't run around and he can't move, that's a 0:26:58.000 --> 0:27:00.000 big issue. His arm still the arm, Okay, I'm not 0:27:00.280 --> 0:27:01.960 I'm not saying you can't throw the football. He can, 0:27:02.560 --> 0:27:06.359 but if he can't plant properly, or if he hurts 0:27:06.359 --> 0:27:08.720 it early in the game, if he gets, you know, sacked, 0:27:08.720 --> 0:27:10.760 and he hurts the foot early in the game, forget 0:27:10.800 --> 0:27:13.520 the head. I mean, the foot's a bigger worry to me, 0:27:13.600 --> 0:27:15.240 to be honest with you, that than any concussion is 0:27:15.240 --> 0:27:18.359 show you'll be having no. So, I just the Bills 0:27:18.400 --> 0:27:20.480 defense has been playing really well and the Chiefs aren't 0:27:20.520 --> 0:27:23.520 scoring touchdowns right now, they're kicking a ton of field goals. Yes, 0:27:23.920 --> 0:27:26.359 So That's why the under is my favorite play of 0:27:26.600 --> 0:27:28.440 the game. Is you know, if I had to bet 0:27:28.440 --> 0:27:29.960 a side on it, or I had to be you know, 0:27:30.119 --> 0:27:32.080 your side or total, I'm taking the total and going 0:27:32.200 --> 0:27:33.280 under three and a half. 0:27:33.840 --> 0:27:35.879 The only part of this game I'm touching is and 0:27:35.920 --> 0:27:37.880 again if it moves up, I'll bet. I'll just bet 0:27:37.880 --> 0:27:41.200 it again for sure. But I'm comfortable at plus nine 0:27:41.320 --> 0:27:45.080 because I don't think there's I will be floored if 0:27:45.119 --> 0:27:48.119 the Chiefs win this game by nine points or more like, 0:27:48.160 --> 0:27:49.920 I'll be absolutely. 0:27:49.480 --> 0:27:51.159 I know a lot of sharp people that like the 0:27:51.200 --> 0:27:52.680 Bills just plus three and a half. 0:27:52.680 --> 0:27:55.560 I'm telling you, I feel like if I have to 0:27:55.600 --> 0:27:57.720 place a bet, I would do it. But Matt, you 0:27:57.760 --> 0:27:59.880 remember that game early in the season when we took 0:28:00.119 --> 0:28:03.479 Chiefs against the Ravens, when Mahlomes was getting money and 0:28:03.520 --> 0:28:05.840 we were just like, right, why would you ever bet 0:28:05.840 --> 0:28:07.760 against Patrick? Well, like, you know, it was just sort 0:28:07.800 --> 0:28:10.960 of watching. It's almost comical what he can do. If 0:28:11.040 --> 0:28:13.760 he is remotely close to one hundred percent and even limited, 0:28:14.000 --> 0:28:16.080 they could have put up a ton of points against Cleveland. 0:28:16.119 --> 0:28:18.600 I mean, what he can do, you know, limping around 0:28:19.080 --> 0:28:22.480 is better than any mortal man. But the Bills, and 0:28:22.520 --> 0:28:24.879 this is I'm very interested to hear your take on it, 0:28:24.920 --> 0:28:27.560 because you you have faded the Bills for the most 0:28:27.560 --> 0:28:31.000 part all season long. But I'm so impressed by the Bills. 0:28:31.000 --> 0:28:33.600 And you know, against the Ravens, I realized that, you know, 0:28:33.800 --> 0:28:36.160 Lamar doesn't throw that pick six, and that game could 0:28:36.200 --> 0:28:39.040 have turned out very, very differently. Baltimore played a great 0:28:39.040 --> 0:28:43.440 game defensively, but it was really really windy, like incredibly windy. 0:28:43.480 --> 0:28:46.360 I don't really blame them the Bills, you know, I'm 0:28:46.360 --> 0:28:48.680 just trying to like break it down. The Bills get 0:28:48.800 --> 0:28:50.480 an extra day of rest here, and again you have 0:28:50.600 --> 0:28:53.160 the Holmes, who's sort of you now, is a little 0:28:53.560 --> 0:28:56.400 banged up. You know, the Bills are great in the 0:28:56.440 --> 0:28:59.040 red zone. Part of it is because Josh Allen Can 0:28:59.280 --> 0:29:02.280 you know, has the rushing threat obviously, but you know, 0:29:02.560 --> 0:29:05.840 he's just playing in an exceptionally high, well high level. 0:29:06.120 --> 0:29:08.800 Casey's not great as a red zone defense, Like, they're 0:29:08.840 --> 0:29:11.000 not that good at keeping teams out of the end 0:29:11.080 --> 0:29:13.280 zone once they get there. So the Bills are going 0:29:13.320 --> 0:29:15.720 to be able to put up points in this game. 0:29:15.800 --> 0:29:18.360 And that's especially true given the fact that everybody on 0:29:18.600 --> 0:29:22.360 the Chiefs is injured. Like, just in thinking about how 0:29:22.360 --> 0:29:25.200 this game's gonn unfold, Breeland is injured. I think he's 0:29:25.200 --> 0:29:28.520 gonna play. He's practicing, but you know, maybe Cech plays. 0:29:28.560 --> 0:29:32.120 I guess Watkins plays, and we guess Mahomes plays. But again, 0:29:32.320 --> 0:29:36.040 the Chiefs defense just hasn't been quite that as good 0:29:36.200 --> 0:29:39.040 in the second half against the pass, like, it's just 0:29:39.160 --> 0:29:41.040 not quite as good. I mean, you looked at Mayfield. 0:29:41.080 --> 0:29:43.440 He was able to move the ball pretty well. The 0:29:43.480 --> 0:29:47.720 Bills linebackers are playing really well. You know, I don't know, man, 0:29:47.760 --> 0:29:49.520 I'm getting like a weird I'm not going to bet 0:29:49.520 --> 0:29:52.000 against Patrick mall I'm just not, like, because it's a 0:29:52.120 --> 0:29:54.960 horrible thing to do. So even though the Bills at 0:29:54.960 --> 0:29:57.720 plus three I think is the right side at this one, 0:29:58.000 --> 0:29:59.600 I'm not going to actually place a bet on it. 0:29:59.680 --> 0:30:03.080 But I don't know, man, especially with Mahomes, he's not 0:30:03.080 --> 0:30:04.560 going to be one hundred percent right, Like that's the 0:30:04.600 --> 0:30:07.040 one thing we know, right, He's just not gonna be 0:30:07.040 --> 0:30:08.120 able to move around. 0:30:08.400 --> 0:30:10.880 Well, Okay, so I got a couple of things on 0:30:11.000 --> 0:30:15.760 ye Josh Allen. All right, So the Buffalo Bills do 0:30:15.880 --> 0:30:20.280 not run the ball. Yes, They've simply just stopped. So 0:30:20.360 --> 0:30:23.200 Brian Dabble not being a head coach saying he's gonna 0:30:23.240 --> 0:30:27.240 stay for one more year, I think we underestimate that 0:30:27.320 --> 0:30:31.240 a little bit because now he's focused on just this team, 0:30:31.280 --> 0:30:36.000 just this quarterback. And I really wonder if Look, Buffalo 0:30:36.080 --> 0:30:38.040 is a cold weather team going to Kansas City, so 0:30:38.080 --> 0:30:39.720 they're not going to be affected by any cold weather, 0:30:39.720 --> 0:30:41.560 which I think is a major benefit to them because 0:30:41.560 --> 0:30:43.200 a lot of teams that go to Kansas City are 0:30:43.240 --> 0:30:46.160 frozen when they get there. Yeah, and especially in I 0:30:46.160 --> 0:30:48.200 mean I've been to a playoff game at Arrowhead in 0:30:48.320 --> 0:30:50.640 January and I've sat nearly near the top of the 0:30:50.640 --> 0:30:52.840 bleachers and I nearly froze to death. I mean, it's 0:30:53.040 --> 0:30:56.560 just super super cold and really really raw. That's the 0:30:56.600 --> 0:30:59.000 thing about it. It's just it's a biting cold in 0:30:59.120 --> 0:31:01.360 Kansas City. So I don't think that the chief the 0:31:01.440 --> 0:31:03.280 Chiefs will have a big advantage over the Bills there, 0:31:03.480 --> 0:31:05.760 nor of a Josh Allen who's a quarterback play at Wyoming. 0:31:05.800 --> 0:31:08.600 So that's okay. The wins a major factor. I got 0:31:08.720 --> 0:31:10.320 to I want to find out it looks like eleven 0:31:10.360 --> 0:31:12.360 mile pro or win Gus. That's not that big of 0:31:12.360 --> 0:31:14.120 a deal, but I just I want to make sure 0:31:14.120 --> 0:31:16.640 that stays there not get buffaloed again like last time 0:31:16.640 --> 0:31:19.520 with the Ravens game. And so that's important. And then 0:31:19.600 --> 0:31:21.880 I look at the red zone offense for the Bills 0:31:21.880 --> 0:31:24.080 and the red zone offense with the Chiefs, and my 0:31:24.200 --> 0:31:27.080 hope is that Kansas City will hold the Bills to 0:31:27.160 --> 0:31:29.200 a bunch of field goals because it's hard to pass 0:31:29.240 --> 0:31:31.080 in the red zone. If you can't run the ball 0:31:31.080 --> 0:31:32.640 in the red zone, it can be tough to score. 0:31:32.920 --> 0:31:36.120 I know they're so good Matt at in the red 0:31:36.200 --> 0:31:38.320 zone for offensively, even though they don't run the ball, 0:31:38.320 --> 0:31:39.880 they're still really good at that. 0:31:40.080 --> 0:31:44.160 But it is a championship game, is it's a different moment. 0:31:44.200 --> 0:31:46.640 It's the first time he's ever been here. He wins, 0:31:46.640 --> 0:31:48.160 and he goes to the Super Bowl. I mean, there's 0:31:48.200 --> 0:31:50.280 just a lot of pressure that comes to this. So 0:31:50.360 --> 0:31:51.880 I could see him gripping a little bit. I can 0:31:51.920 --> 0:31:55.360 see him missopen receivers. I mean, this is where I'm 0:31:55.400 --> 0:31:57.840 not the biggest Josh Allen fan, like everybody knows, but 0:31:58.520 --> 0:32:01.120 I think between the twenties, I think this guy right 0:32:01.160 --> 0:32:04.400 now is really really good. So the red zone. I'm 0:32:04.400 --> 0:32:07.160 hoping for field goals from both sides. That's why I 0:32:07.280 --> 0:32:10.760 like the under in this game. But yep, I'm very 0:32:10.760 --> 0:32:15.280 interested to see what Kansas City's pressure package is and 0:32:15.320 --> 0:32:17.360 if they're just gonna blitz the holy heck out of 0:32:17.440 --> 0:32:20.840 Josh Allen and say, okay, we trust our guys one 0:32:20.880 --> 0:32:24.040 on one. Because if so, I think Diggs could have 0:32:24.080 --> 0:32:27.840 a monster game catching football. Yeah, and he could be 0:32:27.840 --> 0:32:29.200 the guy he could be. He could be the key 0:32:29.240 --> 0:32:30.800 to the whole thing. He may have like eight catches 0:32:30.800 --> 0:32:32.560 for one hundred and twenty yards and two touchdowns. 0:32:32.600 --> 0:32:34.960 And the thing is they're usually good against limiting you know, 0:32:35.040 --> 0:32:37.640 they're usually good at limiting wide receivers. They're kind of 0:32:37.680 --> 0:32:40.360 this funnel defense that funnels everything to the middle of 0:32:40.400 --> 0:32:42.880 the field. And it is worth noting now that Cole Beasley, 0:32:42.960 --> 0:32:45.440 who was banged up, is now off although I guess 0:32:45.440 --> 0:32:47.880 he was off the injury report, but then today he 0:32:47.960 --> 0:32:50.600 got back in a limited practice. So if he if 0:32:50.600 --> 0:32:52.960 he were one hundred percent, I think he could actually 0:32:53.000 --> 0:32:54.240 have a big game because I think the middle of 0:32:54.280 --> 0:32:56.120 the field is where you might be able to kind 0:32:56.160 --> 0:32:58.840 of exploit them. If he is limited again, it's going 0:32:58.880 --> 0:33:01.760 to affect him same question. By the way, I realized, Look, 0:33:01.800 --> 0:33:04.240 they they played each other before, and I think this 0:33:04.400 --> 0:33:06.480 was like the Tuesday night game maybe or maybe it 0:33:06.480 --> 0:33:08.560 was Monday Night football. I can't remember exactly when they played. 0:33:08.560 --> 0:33:11.400 But you know, are you again that was twenty six seventeen. 0:33:11.440 --> 0:33:13.680 The Bills ran the ball a ton you know in 0:33:13.760 --> 0:33:16.000 that game or you I assume, like the Green Bay game. 0:33:16.040 --> 0:33:18.560 You're throwing out that game like you don't care about 0:33:18.560 --> 0:33:18.960 it whatsoever. 0:33:19.000 --> 0:33:20.960 I don't care about it. No, I don't care about it. 0:33:21.000 --> 0:33:25.120 I mean it's it's it's been so long ago. I mean, 0:33:25.160 --> 0:33:27.200 this is a different chief team right now. I don't 0:33:27.200 --> 0:33:29.600 know what's going Chiefs having coverage is remember the first. 0:33:29.440 --> 0:33:31.200 I know of season? 0:33:31.280 --> 0:33:32.400 Now what's going on? 0:33:32.560 --> 0:33:34.520 I don't know. That's why I'm saying when that's why, 0:33:34.680 --> 0:33:36.200 like we're like, oh, you want to wait for it 0:33:36.240 --> 0:33:38.680 to get the plus four whatever, I'll take it plus nine. 0:33:38.800 --> 0:33:41.320 I mean, the teams with my more than you know eight, 0:33:41.400 --> 0:33:43.720 I will be absolutely shocked. But sorry, go ahead. 0:33:43.720 --> 0:33:46.240 I don't mean no, I just I just think that 0:33:46.240 --> 0:33:49.520 that's the key to me, Like that's the that's gonna 0:33:49.520 --> 0:33:53.800 be the biggest difference is is you know, I want 0:33:53.800 --> 0:33:55.720 to see it all comes down to Josh Allen. Josh 0:33:55.760 --> 0:33:58.280 Allen plays well, they're gonna win this game. I really 0:33:58.320 --> 0:34:00.440 think it's possible if he doesn't play up up to 0:34:00.480 --> 0:34:05.320 snuff Patrick Mahomes, if they give Patrick Mahomes any daylight, 0:34:05.480 --> 0:34:07.640 I mean, if they give them the football back up 0:34:07.680 --> 0:34:10.759 four with forty five seconds to go, they're gonna lose. 0:34:11.000 --> 0:34:15.920 Like they cannot. They cannot give the Chiefs any daylight 0:34:16.000 --> 0:34:18.680 to win the game, and if they do, they're gonna lose. 0:34:18.719 --> 0:34:20.680 But I think they might be able to keep the 0:34:20.719 --> 0:34:21.320 door closed. 0:34:21.840 --> 0:34:25.960 Okay, So I think, Okay, So here's the thing. If 0:34:26.000 --> 0:34:30.080 the spread does go past three, okay, like you're expecting 0:34:30.120 --> 0:34:32.480 that it will if Mahomes gets in, I really thought 0:34:32.480 --> 0:34:34.640 it would stick at three. But if it does go up, 0:34:34.880 --> 0:34:38.880 I'd probably bite the bullet and take the Bills because 0:34:38.880 --> 0:34:40.680 I think they have a chance to win outright, and 0:34:40.880 --> 0:34:43.640 because I think that the Chiefs just they don't blow 0:34:43.680 --> 0:34:45.799 anybody out anymore, Like that's just not what they do. 0:34:45.880 --> 0:34:48.279 They don't cover anymore. So I would rather take that 0:34:48.400 --> 0:34:50.319 at three. I'm just staying away from it, man, because 0:34:50.320 --> 0:34:53.400 I think the value is on the Bills even at three, 0:34:53.760 --> 0:34:56.080 but I don't want to. I can't bring myself to 0:34:56.080 --> 0:34:58.640 do it. To see what Patrick Mahomes is able to 0:34:58.640 --> 0:35:01.320 do in that game For the total, You like the under, 0:35:01.760 --> 0:35:03.680 I really don't like it. I think the only way 0:35:03.680 --> 0:35:05.920 I'm touching the total is if it's in game and 0:35:06.000 --> 0:35:08.120 the Bills get out to a lead. If the Bills 0:35:08.160 --> 0:35:10.920 get out like they score fourteen points or something like that, 0:35:11.320 --> 0:35:13.680 then it's I think it's gonna turn into a shootout. 0:35:13.960 --> 0:35:16.000 Then I think it's gonna be like what because Mahomes 0:35:16.040 --> 0:35:18.120 is able to put up if he if he needs to, 0:35:18.560 --> 0:35:21.239 they'll score a touchdown in right fifty seconds, right right, 0:35:21.320 --> 0:35:23.399 any anytime. And if they're down by a little bit, 0:35:23.640 --> 0:35:25.680 then I think the total is gonna explode and we'll 0:35:25.680 --> 0:35:28.440 see where it goes. But yeah, other than that, I 0:35:28.480 --> 0:35:31.279 don't know. Man, this game's both these games. I mean, 0:35:31.320 --> 0:35:33.839 the lines are sharp, but it scares me. Manugh, it's 0:35:33.880 --> 0:35:36.719 really just yeah, all right, Well let's get to our 0:35:36.760 --> 0:35:38.799 official picks, Matt. Let's get because we do it. So 0:35:39.000 --> 0:35:40.680 you gotta take a you gotta take a spread, you 0:35:40.680 --> 0:35:42.680 gotta take a side. I know you may not actually 0:35:42.680 --> 0:35:44.839 bet it, but you have to take one side right now, 0:35:44.880 --> 0:35:45.319 what is it? 0:35:45.640 --> 0:35:46.760 Packer's minus three? 0:35:47.360 --> 0:35:49.360 Okay, I'm gonna do the same. 0:35:49.200 --> 0:35:51.920 Because because the Bills aren't. Once the Bills go to 0:35:51.960 --> 0:35:54.120 four to four and a half, out prefer the Bills. 0:35:54.360 --> 0:35:54.640 Yep. 0:35:54.880 --> 0:35:57.880 But right now Bills at three, no, even three and 0:35:57.920 --> 0:35:58.320 a half. 0:35:58.360 --> 0:36:02.280 No, we are we are in the exact same situation then. Ohthough, 0:36:02.280 --> 0:36:04.200 hold on, let me let me check what I said here, 0:36:04.280 --> 0:36:07.399 just to make sure it is three. Okay, yeah, I'm 0:36:07.480 --> 0:36:10.040 with you right now. I'm gonna my favorite one would 0:36:10.080 --> 0:36:12.960 be the Packers minus three. But if the Bills do 0:36:13.120 --> 0:36:16.040 go past the field goal, I will take the Bills. 0:36:16.040 --> 0:36:18.120 That will be my favorite play. And your total that 0:36:18.160 --> 0:36:21.440 you like the most is the Chiefs Bills under. 0:36:21.280 --> 0:36:22.440 Right, fifty three and a half. 0:36:22.520 --> 0:36:26.120 Yep, all right, Chiefs Bills under fifty three and a half. 0:36:27.440 --> 0:36:31.480 I'm gonna go just to differentiate it. And again, look, 0:36:31.520 --> 0:36:34.200 I'll be as honest possible because somebody asked this on Twitter, like, 0:36:34.280 --> 0:36:36.719 do you bet everything that you gout, you know, sort 0:36:36.719 --> 0:36:39.279 of talk about and on this. You know, most of 0:36:39.280 --> 0:36:41.759 the time I do on this, I'm not like I'm 0:36:41.760 --> 0:36:43.719 not you know, all that time. I'm not gonna make it. 0:36:43.719 --> 0:36:45.600 I mean, I change. I bet every day, so sorry 0:36:45.920 --> 0:36:48.160 information will. I mean, that was the thing about during 0:36:48.200 --> 0:36:50.120 the football season that we would tape on a Thursday 0:36:50.160 --> 0:36:52.560 and then on Sunday it'd be COVID problems and quarterbacks 0:36:52.600 --> 0:36:55.439 being out and guys not there and it was coaches leaving. 0:36:55.480 --> 0:36:57.760 It was like what the It was just constant chaos. 0:36:57.800 --> 0:36:59.960 So like our plays on Thursday were kind of like 0:37:00.040 --> 0:37:02.560 all right, and we all joked around like talking, you know, 0:37:02.600 --> 0:37:04.560 on Sunday morning, we'll tell you what our real plays 0:37:04.600 --> 0:37:07.840 are because we don't know on Thursday exactly what's gonna happen. 0:37:07.840 --> 0:37:09.920 So it made it far more difficult to bet, you know, 0:37:10.200 --> 0:37:13.840 on on taping to have our plays be actually counting, right. 0:37:14.080 --> 0:37:17.160 And I agree, But I'm going to go the Bucks 0:37:17.280 --> 0:37:20.840 Packers over fifty one and a half. I actually, you know, again, 0:37:20.880 --> 0:37:23.759 both teams are a relatively strong defensively. I just think 0:37:23.800 --> 0:37:26.359 that Aaron Rodgers is playing at a level right now 0:37:26.360 --> 0:37:29.360 where he's not really going to be able to be contained. 0:37:29.680 --> 0:37:31.400 And I think that the Bucks. But I think the 0:37:31.680 --> 0:37:33.240 way the game plays out, if I have to choose 0:37:33.239 --> 0:37:35.600 one way, is that the Packers get ahead, they put 0:37:35.640 --> 0:37:38.200 up some points, you know, and Eventually, Tom you know, 0:37:38.520 --> 0:37:41.360 leads them back, but they do fall short. And because 0:37:41.400 --> 0:37:43.040 of that, I think there are going to be points 0:37:43.040 --> 0:37:44.560 in this game. So I'll go over fifty one and 0:37:44.560 --> 0:37:47.360 a half. But you you said it correctly. That's the line. 0:37:47.440 --> 0:37:49.600 I mean that that's the right line for sure. So 0:37:49.680 --> 0:37:50.960 I don't love it, but if I have to go 0:37:51.000 --> 0:37:52.759 one way, that's what I'm doing. And it sounds like 0:37:52.760 --> 0:37:54.720 we have the same two team teaser, Matt. You're teasing 0:37:54.719 --> 0:37:56.440 that total down in the Packers. 0:37:56.520 --> 0:37:58.360 That'll be the official two team teaser for me. 0:37:58.800 --> 0:38:01.560 Okay, and is it Are you waiting to do it 0:38:01.560 --> 0:38:03.640 for the best because we can say that there's no 0:38:03.800 --> 0:38:07.919 way that the spread here unless Patrick Mahomes is ruled out, 0:38:07.920 --> 0:38:10.080 which we basically are discounting at this point. 0:38:10.120 --> 0:38:12.200 There's no way if he's rolled out the Lions Buffalo 0:38:12.280 --> 0:38:17.440 miles three, right, And so you're so it's a monster difference. 0:38:17.080 --> 0:38:19.560 No, no, no, no. But what I'm saying is you are 0:38:19.560 --> 0:38:21.879 not concerned about that enough to bet it right now 0:38:21.920 --> 0:38:24.640 at moving it from three to nine. You're gonna wait 0:38:24.680 --> 0:38:27.640 to make that bet. I want ten, right, So you're 0:38:27.719 --> 0:38:29.960 what I'm saying is that you think the risk of 0:38:30.040 --> 0:38:32.680 Mahomes being out is so minimal that you're gonna wait 0:38:33.200 --> 0:38:36.160 on this bet to make this two deser, right, Okay, yeah, yeah, 0:38:36.239 --> 0:38:36.799 yeah yeah. 0:38:36.840 --> 0:38:39.400 So again I got a better chance of growing two 0:38:39.440 --> 0:38:44.960 feet tomorrow night than Mahome's not playing. Okay, it's not happening. 0:38:44.800 --> 0:38:47.799 Least, I don't know you that well, maybe that's a possibility. 0:38:47.840 --> 0:38:50.960 I really it would be weird. But yeah, I agree 0:38:50.960 --> 0:38:54.560 that he's playing again. I will gladly bet it again. 0:38:54.600 --> 0:38:56.640 And the total actually for me when I had it 0:38:56.840 --> 0:38:59.000 was fifty one on the Bucks Packers game. It's now 0:38:59.040 --> 0:39:00.799 fifty one and a half for me pulling it down, 0:39:00.840 --> 0:39:03.279 so it's moving a little bit. I'm fine to take 0:39:03.320 --> 0:39:05.520 it right now at plus three because again I think 0:39:05.560 --> 0:39:07.480 that that's a safe number. I think making that plus 0:39:07.560 --> 0:39:10.480 nine for the Bills is totally safe if Matt's right. 0:39:10.560 --> 0:39:14.080 And again I have been assuming this entire time that 0:39:14.200 --> 0:39:17.560 they put it at plus three, and that they were 0:39:17.760 --> 0:39:20.759 expecting basically like the only way it was going to move, 0:39:20.840 --> 0:39:25.160 most likely was in Buffalo's favor, you know, coming to 0:39:25.239 --> 0:39:28.040 this or whatever. I just I think that they're they're 0:39:28.040 --> 0:39:30.560 going to leave it at plus three like that. That's 0:39:30.560 --> 0:39:32.839 why I think they made that line assuming Mahomes would 0:39:32.840 --> 0:39:35.359 play and that they assume the money. But I will 0:39:35.360 --> 0:39:37.319 trust your judgment, of course, because you know a lot 0:39:37.360 --> 0:39:39.600 more about that side of it than I will. And 0:39:39.640 --> 0:39:41.520 so I'm willing to go with it at plus three. 0:39:41.520 --> 0:39:43.120 If it goes to plus four, I'll bet it again 0:39:43.200 --> 0:39:45.880 and get it ten without question. But that's where we are. 0:39:46.000 --> 0:39:47.200 So yeah, I mean, it's sounds. 0:39:47.239 --> 0:39:48.719 And then the bonus is if you want to do 0:39:48.760 --> 0:39:50.760 a two team money line parlay, you can get plus 0:39:50.800 --> 0:39:52.360 money on Becker's Chiefs. 0:39:52.680 --> 0:39:55.359 That's right, that's right. Yeah, I DraftKings one forty six. 0:39:55.400 --> 0:39:57.600 He's had a fandle one fifty one. That's not a 0:39:57.600 --> 0:39:59.440 bad way to go. And again, on that leg of it, 0:39:59.480 --> 0:40:02.960 I feel I feel more confident that the Packers are 0:40:02.960 --> 0:40:04.719 going to beat the Bucks than I need. The Chiefs 0:40:04.760 --> 0:40:05.279 are gonna beat the. 0:40:05.239 --> 0:40:07.920 Bills, And you can flip it around if you want 0:40:07.920 --> 0:40:09.120 to change it up, if you if you think that 0:40:09.239 --> 0:40:10.920 you think the Bills are gonna win the game. Outright, 0:40:11.280 --> 0:40:12.719 you can get even better money on that. 0:40:12.760 --> 0:40:13.960 Oh yeah, that's right. 0:40:14.200 --> 0:40:17.640 That's like plus two hundred bills a Bill's moneyline parlay 0:40:17.680 --> 0:40:19.759 with the Packers, you know, and I think that is 0:40:19.800 --> 0:40:21.600 a real good shot. That's what I'm gonna wind. 0:40:21.440 --> 0:40:22.880 Up with plus two seventy seven. 0:40:22.920 --> 0:40:25.200 Man, Dang, they made me nearly three to one. 0:40:25.640 --> 0:40:28.400 Yeah, that's not a bad one actually to U to 0:40:28.480 --> 0:40:29.799 consider doing all right. 0:40:29.840 --> 0:40:32.360 I just think that. I just think the Bills find 0:40:32.400 --> 0:40:34.919 a way to blow it. It's late. 0:40:35.160 --> 0:40:37.239 I just find a way to give Homes given the 0:40:37.239 --> 0:40:38.279 Bills history. 0:40:38.040 --> 0:40:40.439 Yes, yep, I'm just giving you. I think it's Mahomes 0:40:40.520 --> 0:40:43.600 magic at home. I just think there's something there where 0:40:43.600 --> 0:40:46.680 the Bills are gonna do something stupid. They're gonna punt 0:40:46.719 --> 0:40:49.200 on a fourth down they shouldn't punt on. They're gonna 0:40:49.239 --> 0:40:52.279 give that little crack to Patrick Mahomes, and then he'll 0:40:52.280 --> 0:40:54.439 blow that thing and he'll win the game. Like I think, 0:40:54.920 --> 0:40:55.840 I don't think recover. 0:40:55.960 --> 0:40:58.880 But really what it comes down to is exactly that, 0:40:58.920 --> 0:41:01.120 which is why I can't make the bet, which is 0:41:01.480 --> 0:41:06.600 you have to give Patrick Mahomes zero options, zero chances 0:41:06.960 --> 0:41:10.040 to win that game or to whatever you want to do. 0:41:10.160 --> 0:41:11.799 You have to give him zero because if you give 0:41:11.840 --> 0:41:15.640 him a sliver, gimpy or not, he's going to make 0:41:15.640 --> 0:41:17.560 it happen. Which is why I just cam bring myself. 0:41:17.560 --> 0:41:19.239 I mean, just win the game, right, I mean it 0:41:19.239 --> 0:41:21.440 can be like they can be down twenty six to 0:41:21.520 --> 0:41:23.799 twenty yeah, and you get the football back to them 0:41:23.840 --> 0:41:26.400 and then tend to go in one time out and 0:41:26.480 --> 0:41:28.920 Mahomes goes eighty yards and scores a game winning touchdown. 0:41:28.960 --> 0:41:30.239 You lose twenty seven to twenty six. 0:41:30.480 --> 0:41:31.840 Yeah, Like these are really I. 0:41:32.120 --> 0:41:35.160 Can easily see that happening. So you cover your bills teaser, 0:41:35.400 --> 0:41:37.160 and you cover your bills plus three and a half 0:41:37.239 --> 0:41:39.800 or plus four, yeah, but you get your Patrick Mahomes 0:41:39.880 --> 0:41:41.200 money line parlay. 0:41:41.320 --> 0:41:44.879 Yeah to hit. Yeah. All right, Well, obviously Matt will 0:41:44.880 --> 0:41:47.480 give his official sort of Daily Juice plays on the 0:41:47.560 --> 0:41:50.880 Daily Juice podcast, and we will certainly have props. I've 0:41:50.920 --> 0:41:53.160 got a couple of ideas already, Matt. On props, I'm 0:41:53.160 --> 0:41:54.480 I'm starting to look at it because some of them 0:41:54.480 --> 0:41:55.960 are out. I know, they don't come out for you 0:41:56.360 --> 0:41:58.760 right until they have I'd. 0:41:58.680 --> 0:42:01.080 Like that basically, like get them Saturday night. 0:42:01.360 --> 0:42:03.520 Yeah you had to live in Vegas, Matt, poor guy. 0:42:03.560 --> 0:42:05.719 But yes, I'll get them a little early, so I'll 0:42:05.719 --> 0:42:07.120 try to get into you. And again, Matt will be 0:42:07.160 --> 0:42:10.120 doing a live stream this weekend on Sunday, eleven o'clock 0:42:10.200 --> 0:42:15.200 usual time at a wonderful YouTube dot com slash betting pros. 0:42:15.200 --> 0:42:17.759 Go ahead there, we'll have our props and then again 0:42:17.800 --> 0:42:19.719 we'll be doing something big for the Super Bowl. I 0:42:19.760 --> 0:42:22.040 will let you guys know what that is. And again 0:42:22.120 --> 0:42:26.120 join our discord betting bros dot com slash chat. We 0:42:26.160 --> 0:42:27.879 were in there all the time and we'll be doing 0:42:27.880 --> 0:42:30.600 that during the Super Bowl. Until then, enjoy this weekend's games. 0:42:30.680 --> 0:42:33.080 It's going to be fun and we will talk to 0:42:33.120 --> 0:42:35.680 you not next week, but the week after talking about 0:42:35.719 --> 0:42:36.239 the Super Bowl.