1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cockley and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 2: We got our eyes trained on markets as they are 7 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 2: keying off what's happening here in Washington. With a lot 8 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:33,600 Speaker 2: of news today on tariffs. We walk through the fake 9 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 2: news portion already, according to the White House reports, rumors 10 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 2: of a ninety day review or just that fake news. 11 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 2: The President though, taking to truth social a bit earlier 12 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 2: to threaten an additional fifty percent tariff on China, and 13 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:50,200 Speaker 2: it takes place as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nett Yahoo 14 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:51,919 Speaker 2: pays a visit to the White House today to talk 15 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 2: about Israel's higher. 16 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 3: Than expected seventeen percent tariff. 17 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:57,440 Speaker 2: They're going to be holding forth in the Oval Office 18 00:00:57,480 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 2: a short time from now, and we'll hold a joint 19 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 2: news conference later on. That's where we start this hour 20 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,160 Speaker 2: with Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall on the North Lawn at the 21 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 2: White House. 22 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:09,160 Speaker 4: Tyler, Yeah, hey, Joe, Well right now, we are waiting 23 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 4: for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin and Yahoo to arrive here 24 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 4: at the White House. You might be able to see 25 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 4: it over my shoulder for our radio listeners. There's currently 26 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:19,560 Speaker 4: an honor guard lined up here in the driveway of 27 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:21,959 Speaker 4: the White House North Lawn to welcome him as they 28 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 4: begin those negotiations. Now, one theme that we're seeing emerge 29 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 4: when it comes to the potential tariff negotiations is that 30 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 4: it appears President Trump wants to do them in person. 31 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 4: He confirmed earlier today that he had spoken to the 32 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 4: japan Prime Minister and that a team of negotiators would 33 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 4: be coming to Washington to further their discussions. Now, of course, 34 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 4: as you've been discussing, the biggest story today appears to 35 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 4: be President Trump threatening this additional fifty percent tariff when 36 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 4: it comes to China. Critical here. Our understanding, according to 37 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 4: his truth Social post, is that this levee would be 38 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 4: enacted on top of existing levees, the twenty percent tariff 39 00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 4: that's already in place against Beijing, and then of course 40 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 4: that thirty four percent and tariff that we are expecting 41 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 4: to go into place on April ninth. 42 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 5: Well, in addition with reciprocal tariffs on all other partners, tylered. 43 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:12,400 Speaker 5: The President also talked about other ongoing conversations with different 44 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 5: countries that he is having. Is there any indication from 45 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 5: the White House that deals are forthcoming before the Wednesday deadline? 46 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:21,799 Speaker 4: At this point, the White House is holding pretty firm right. 47 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 4: Senior administration officials had confirmed yesterday that more than fifty 48 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 4: countries reached out to the US to negotiate. The question 49 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 4: being what will it take for President Trump to get 50 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,079 Speaker 4: to the negotiating table. He's previously said that he needs 51 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 4: to see something phenomenal, right, and what phenomenal means remains 52 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 4: to be seen. Although yesterday he did give some indication 53 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 4: to reporters that they're really focusing in on trade deficits 54 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 4: that could be very difficult for some countries, particularly ones 55 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 4: that we rely on for low cost goods, to end 56 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 4: up meeting in order to get some sort of deal done. 57 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 4: But Joe and Kelly, this White House really dismissing investors' fears. 58 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 4: I want you to take a listen here to what 59 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 4: President Trump told reporters yesterday on Air Force One, saying, 60 00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 4: to hold type, this is all about long term gain. 61 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 3: What's gonna happen with the market. 62 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:05,520 Speaker 6: I can't tell you what I can tell you our 63 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 6: country has gotten a lot stronger, and eventually it'll be 64 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 6: a country like Noahther it'll be the most dominant country economically. 65 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 7: In the world. 66 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 4: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday dismissed recession fear, said he's 67 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:23,359 Speaker 4: not pricing in one, even as big banks revised thor 68 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:25,359 Speaker 4: for a casts when it comes to it, and we're 69 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:27,959 Speaker 4: starting to hear those Wall Street executives push back, including 70 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 4: JP Morgan chases Jamie Diamond and his annual shareholder note, 71 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 4: blasting the policy and saying he hopes to see a 72 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 4: quick resolution. Remains to be seen. Exactly what that will be, 73 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 4: but for now, this White House is holding firm. 74 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 5: All right. Bloomberg Tyler Kendel live on the North Line 75 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 5: at the White House where we are seeing on Bloomberg 76 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 5: TV the honor guard passing as we await the arrival 77 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 5: of the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahoo. Thank you so 78 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 5: much now, as Tyler was alluding to the administration's response 79 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 5: to financial markets, essentially saying that it's not a big deal. 80 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 5: We certainly have seen a great deal of volatility, a 81 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 5: seven percent intra day swing on the S and P 82 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 5: five hundred today, and we want to get more context 83 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 5: as to what exactly is going on inequities. Ryan Vlass 84 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 5: Stellica Bloomberg Equities Reporters joining us live from Chicago with 85 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:16,920 Speaker 5: more so. Ryan. Obviously, right now we're not looking at 86 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 5: losses as steep as what we experienced at the end 87 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,159 Speaker 5: of last week, but we have still seen some pretty 88 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:22,920 Speaker 5: incredible moves. 89 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:26,719 Speaker 8: Absolutely, volatility is kind of off the charts today. We've 90 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 8: seen just some enormous wings and companies. There was a 91 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,599 Speaker 8: rumor today about a potential pause that caused stocks the spike, 92 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 8: and then when that was sort of downplayed, we saw 93 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 8: them retreat back lower again. Everyone is very antsy. Everyone is, 94 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 8: you know, shooting first and asking questions later. Everything is 95 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 8: being buried, driven by headlines by a rumor. It's an 96 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 8: extremely volatile market right now. 97 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 2: Conventional wisdom seems to be beware the dead cat bounce here. 98 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 3: Ryan, I'm not sure your thoughts on this. 99 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,359 Speaker 2: It was encouraging, even though it turned out to be 100 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 2: a rumor this morning that there was some did under 101 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 2: stocks here. We heard from Larry Fink last hour. He said, 102 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 2: it's more of a long term buying opportunity of the 103 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 2: selling opportunity. But that doesn't mean the market can't drop 104 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 2: another twenty percent. 105 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 3: What would that mean. 106 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 8: Well, people are really trying to suss out what all 107 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 8: these tariff implications really mean for the economy going forward. 108 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 8: There's a lot more talk about a recession than maybe 109 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:23,720 Speaker 8: we even heard, you know, a week ago. I mean, 110 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:26,279 Speaker 8: everything has changed very dramatically in just a couple of 111 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 8: days as far as like the market is concerned. I mean, 112 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:31,160 Speaker 8: we have a company like Apple that at one point 113 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 8: today was on track for its biggest three day drop 114 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 8: since before the iPod was released back in two thousand. 115 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:39,480 Speaker 8: So the sheer scale of the selling right now is 116 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 8: something to behold. And you know, it certainly would be 117 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:44,280 Speaker 8: possible that we would get some kind of a bounce. 118 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:46,800 Speaker 8: Maybe that's a short term bounce. Maybe this does end 119 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 8: up being a longer term opportunity, but right now there's 120 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:51,840 Speaker 8: still so much uncertainty that it's hard to you know, 121 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 8: make any calls one way or the other. 122 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 5: Well, and when we look at kind of regional exposure, exposure, 123 00:05:58,040 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 5: if you will, I'm looking at the Nasdaq Golden drag 124 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:03,160 Speaker 5: China Index right now down seven percentage points as the 125 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:06,280 Speaker 5: President is threatening tariff is high as one hundred and 126 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,279 Speaker 5: four percent effectively on all Chinese goods. Are there other 127 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:13,560 Speaker 5: pockets of the market Ryan like that that you're watching, well? 128 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 8: I mentioned Apple, and Apple is really in the crosshairs 129 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 8: of tariffs right now. That's what we are sort of 130 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 8: focusing on here. They do so much of their manufacturing 131 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 8: in China, in Vietnam, in these countries that are releasing 132 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 8: the brunt of the sort of tariff impact here. And 133 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 8: this is a company that we've already been having a 134 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:31,799 Speaker 8: lot of concerns about in terms of their growth expectations, 135 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 8: their inability to grow as fast as some of the 136 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:37,200 Speaker 8: other mega cap peers. It was already trading at evaluation 137 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:40,039 Speaker 8: that was seen as elevated by historical standards. So there's 138 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 8: really a lot of reasons to be selling a stock 139 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 8: like Apple right now, and there's sort of fewer reasons 140 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 8: to buy unless you are taking a longer term kind 141 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 8: of point of view. But I would say a lot 142 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 8: of these companies, especially within big tech, people remain pretty 143 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:54,479 Speaker 8: positive on them in terms of their you know, their 144 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:58,040 Speaker 8: cash flow, their balance sheets, their you know, dominance in 145 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 8: the markets they operate, and so you will certainly find 146 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 8: people who remain optimistic about Big Peck. But I think 147 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 8: right now the short term is so uncertain that everyone is, 148 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:08,479 Speaker 8: like I said, just extremely cautious and very prone to 149 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 8: be selling. 150 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 2: Ryan Vstellika, Bloomberg Equities Reporter in the teeth of the 151 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 2: cell off. 152 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 3: Ryan, We thank you so much. Kealley. 153 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 2: It's pretty remarkable to see the VIS back above fifty 154 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 2: here this morning. The number that we're looking at, by 155 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 2: the way, on the the S and P five hundred 156 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 2: forty nine point fifteen. A closing level would in fact 157 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 2: mean a bear market, joining the Nasdaq. 158 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 3: Which did such last week. 159 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, a decline of course of twenty percent or more 160 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 5: is what would codify that bear market. And it's incredible 161 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 5: because we have seen over the last two days at 162 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 5: the end of last week of selling in the equity market, 163 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 5: investor seeking haven in the treasury market, and yet that's 164 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 5: not what is happening today. We're actually up fourteen basis 165 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:50,239 Speaker 5: points on the ten year yield right now at four thirteen. 166 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 5: So you're seeing selling in stocks, you're also seeing selling 167 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 5: in bonds, and I wonder what that signal's investors are 168 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 5: anticipating about whether or not we will likely get a 169 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 5: response from the Federal Reserve to this volatility and economic uncertating. 170 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 2: Larry think was pouring a little bit of cold water 171 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 2: on that, just thinking that the market's got a bit 172 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:10,320 Speaker 2: over at skis expecting four cuts this year. Congressman Frank 173 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 2: Lucas is looking at all of this just like the 174 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 2: rest of us are. He is the Republican representing the 175 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 2: third District of Oklahoma and joins us now Live. Congressman, 176 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 2: it's great to have you back on Bloomberg TV and radio. 177 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 2: This story has evolved a bit since we last talked 178 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 2: about it, and I wonder from your standpoint, and if 179 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 2: you put your rancher hat on in Oklahoma, if you're 180 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 2: hearing a consistent message from this White House, and if 181 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 2: you support this course of action. 182 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:37,959 Speaker 9: Clearly the President believes he's going to stay the course. 183 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:40,440 Speaker 9: He's determined to change the way we do trade and 184 00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 9: business around the world. He's using a sledgehammer approach of tariffs. 185 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 9: My folks in Oklahoma are still overwhelmingly supportive of the President. 186 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 9: We'll see over the course of the coming hours or 187 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 9: days what kind of response we get from our trading 188 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 9: partners or competitors around the world. But what choice do 189 00:08:59,920 --> 00:09:02,680 Speaker 9: we have other than to pursue this for the time 190 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 9: being and hold the faith when it comes to the market. Well. 191 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 5: Being supportive of the president is one thing, Congressman, being 192 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 5: supportive of this specific policy from the president is another. 193 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 5: Are your constituents telling you they're on board with tariffs 194 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:18,319 Speaker 5: of this scope and scale? 195 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,319 Speaker 9: Mise, constituents are holding their breath. Eighty percent of the 196 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,079 Speaker 9: cotton we raise in this country plus is exported. Forty 197 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 9: percent of the winter week we raise in this country's exported. 198 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:31,080 Speaker 9: All the hugs we raise in Northwest Oklahoma get on 199 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 9: ships to go to Asia. So these issues are very 200 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 9: important to my constituents. But they also understand the status 201 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:39,559 Speaker 9: quo for the last three or four decades has worked 202 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 9: against us. And here comes President Trump, prepared not to 203 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 9: accept the status quo, but to plow through. 204 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 4: Now. 205 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 9: We will see over the coming days and weeks and months. 206 00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 9: I have faith that the President and his inner circle 207 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 9: advisors will make the necessary strategic adjustments if there are 208 00:09:56,120 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 9: strategic adjustments to be made. But let's just take a 209 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 9: breath and try to work our way through the next 210 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:04,960 Speaker 9: few days, because, after all, if you put them the 211 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 9: money in the market two years ago, from a stock 212 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 9: market perspective, you're still several thousand points a hit as 213 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 9: of this moment. 214 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:17,560 Speaker 2: Well to the point that you're making about your district, Congressman, 215 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:20,959 Speaker 2: a report by the US China Business Council found indeed 216 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 2: that Oklahoma's third district was the third largest recipient China, rather, 217 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,960 Speaker 2: was the third largest recipient of your global exports, which 218 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:31,640 Speaker 2: you just described here one hundred and fifty four million 219 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 2: dollars in gross sales. How do you quantify what's about 220 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 2: to happen here to local business. 221 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 9: Well, if you look at four years ago, when we 222 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 9: had the first taste of the trade wars, President Trump 223 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 9: responded by urging Congress to provide additional assistance to farmers 224 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:52,200 Speaker 9: to weather the storm, and he also negotiated a deal 225 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:55,199 Speaker 9: four years ago with the Chinese to buy an additional 226 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 9: fifty billion dollars in US agricultural products. I'm not sure 227 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 9: exactly what top of my head, how well the Biden 228 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 9: administration followed through on that, But he remembered who his 229 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 9: supporters were, and he stood with us. We'll see this time. 230 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 9: But you have to have faith. We'll see in the 231 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:16,959 Speaker 9: next hours, days, weeks what happens. But movement, it would 232 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:19,960 Speaker 9: seem from our trading partners around the world might. The 233 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 9: President says he's had inquiries from fifty different countries wanting 234 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 9: to address the tariff issues. Again, this is a sledgehammer approach, 235 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 9: but the system has generally worked against us from a 236 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 9: manufacturing point of view for decades. Let's give it a try. 237 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 5: Congressman, one of your Republican colleagues in the House, Congressman 238 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:43,440 Speaker 5: Don Bacon, has introduced legislation that looks a lot like 239 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:46,959 Speaker 5: the legislation bipartisan legislation that was introduced in the Senate, 240 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 5: essentially requiring congressional approval of the president's tariffs. The White 241 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:54,840 Speaker 5: House today has issued a veto threat on that Senate 242 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:57,560 Speaker 5: bill that was co sponsored by Senator Chuck Grassley and 243 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:00,360 Speaker 5: Maria can't. Well, why veto's something that is at actually 244 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 5: technically according to the Constitution. Just you guys reclaiming Article 245 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 5: one authority that you're entitled to. 246 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 9: Well, I'm very jealous of congressional power under the Constitution. 247 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:14,679 Speaker 9: I'm not sure how we got to this point delegating 248 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 9: this much to the President. It is a discussion that 249 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 9: has to be had. I'm not sure that right now 250 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 9: in the depths of the trenches economically is the battle, 251 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:26,719 Speaker 9: is the place and time to do it. 252 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:32,080 Speaker 2: I just want to mention a breaking headline here on 253 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 2: the terminal. Congressman, it appears that President Trump's news conference 254 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 2: that had been scheduled for a couple of hours from 255 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 2: now with Benjamin Nett Yahoo has been canceled. They are 256 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 2: going to take some questions. I want to be clear 257 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:45,680 Speaker 2: when they meet in the Oval Office, but we're not 258 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 2: going to have the formal bilateral news conference that we 259 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 2: had expected. Congressman, That's just part of the story today 260 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 2: that we're following with regard to these tariffs. And as 261 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:01,840 Speaker 2: Kayleie mentioned, now, you've got essentially a veto threat coming 262 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 2: from the White House here. Do you worry is your 263 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 2: worst case scenario a war between the White House and 264 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 2: the Congress on top of a trade war. 265 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:14,280 Speaker 9: I would tell you, Joe, my biggest concern just this moment, 266 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 9: in addition to tariffs, in addition to trade wars, the 267 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:20,360 Speaker 9: House needs to pass the budget resolution that the Senate 268 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:23,199 Speaker 9: has passed with our separate instructions, so that we can 269 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:27,439 Speaker 9: get on with reconciliation, addressing the national debt, addressing spending, 270 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:30,640 Speaker 9: making sure that we don't have the most dramatic increase 271 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 9: in taxes at the end of this year, and the 272 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:34,679 Speaker 9: fact that that would have on the entire economy. There 273 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 9: are a lot of pieces in play right just this 274 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 9: moment we need to focus. 275 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:42,120 Speaker 10: Well. 276 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:44,440 Speaker 5: Of course, one of your focuses, sir, is you share 277 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 5: the new task Force on Monetary policy, treasury, market resilience, 278 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:51,560 Speaker 5: and economic prosperity. And given how keyed in the market 279 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 5: seems to be to the words of Federal Reserve officials 280 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 5: around this, I wonder if you are anticipating we may 281 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 5: see intervention from the Senate Bank, because right now, at 282 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 5: least in terms of market functioning, everything looks like it 283 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:08,719 Speaker 5: is acting appropriately. The systems are working. In short of that, 284 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 5: is there really a need for FED intervention here that 285 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:12,319 Speaker 5: you see? 286 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:16,440 Speaker 9: Well, I have faith in Chairman Powell and the entire 287 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 9: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. I think they, 288 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:22,920 Speaker 9: using that independent the spirit of the nineteen thirteen Act, 289 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 9: will make the appropriate decisions on interest rates in effect, 290 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,560 Speaker 9: monetary policy. We'll just have to see over the course 291 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 9: of the days. This is a world where we seem 292 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 9: to live moment by moment, not day by day traditionally. 293 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 9: But we'll see where they go. And by the way, 294 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 9: on the task force, our next hearing this week will 295 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 9: address US treasury debt in the monetary system? How do 296 00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 9: you have how do you market? How do you sell 297 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:49,320 Speaker 9: all of the treasury notes, bonds and bills into the 298 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 9: market when you have seven eight times more paper than 299 00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:54,200 Speaker 9: we had twenty or thirty years ago and you have 300 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 9: half the market makers. This will be an introduction to 301 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,400 Speaker 9: an introductory needing so that the members of the task 302 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 9: force can come up with speed with experts in the field. 303 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 9: But yeah, you talk about timing critical nature a task 304 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 9: force focusing on the FED and Treasury debt. I can't 305 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 9: imagine two more important issues for the long term and 306 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:17,680 Speaker 9: intermedia and short term picture of the country than that. 307 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,160 Speaker 2: Well, when we think about the short term, Larry Fink 308 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 2: was talking to Bloomberg last hour. You might have heard 309 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 2: the conversation. Congressman. He's casting doubt on what the market 310 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 2: sees as the likelihood of several maybe four interest rate 311 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 2: cuts this year, even though he says we're probably in 312 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 2: a recession right now. If that's the case, how about 313 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 2: an emergency rate cut today. 314 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 9: That's not really a position for me to take a 315 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 9: side on that. I will simply say this, a lot 316 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 9: of the challenges we face right now have to do 317 00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 9: with the Biden administrations over stimulating the economy with spending 318 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:57,960 Speaker 9: four years ago, and we're dealing with a hangover from that, 319 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:03,280 Speaker 9: balancing where we are are interest rates, a capital investment, 320 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 9: the trade issues. It's a challenging time. I would not 321 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 9: want to be the chairman of the FED, or for 322 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 9: that matter, on the Board of Directors, and we can 323 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 9: all offer advice and independence, but it's still a body, 324 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 9: based on its own insights that makes the decision. 325 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 5: Well, if you don't want to be the FED chairman, Congressman, 326 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:24,800 Speaker 5: I wonder if you envy the Speaker this week as well, 327 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 5: because he's going to have to push through the Senate resolution, 328 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 5: which you are speaking to just a moment ago, that 329 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:32,560 Speaker 5: looks different than what you and your colleagues initially passed 330 00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:34,280 Speaker 5: in the House. And already there are a number of 331 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 5: Republicans who have suggested they can't support this given how 332 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 5: drastic the difference is in terms of the spending cuts 333 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 5: that are outlined. Are you confident that you actually can 334 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 5: get this thing passed before the Easter recess? 335 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:47,880 Speaker 9: Well, let me put it this way. With the challenge 336 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 9: is going on right now, whether it's the trade wars, 337 00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:53,640 Speaker 9: the stock markets, all of the bond markets, all of 338 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:57,160 Speaker 9: these issues, we in the House Republican Conference have to 339 00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 9: show forward momentum. We have to demonstrate that we can 340 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 9: and get our work done. We can get the reconciliation 341 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:04,879 Speaker 9: no matter what the instructions say, it will be that 342 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 9: final document put together by the various committees, and none 343 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,960 Speaker 9: of that create the savings that move the process forward. 344 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:15,439 Speaker 9: If we can't take that step, then that is the 345 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 9: kind of thing that we could potentially have a dramatic 346 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 9: psychological effect on the market. I've told several of my 347 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 9: colleagues we need to do our work and do it 348 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 9: on time this week. We cannot go home for Easter 349 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 9: until we've addressed the budget resolution. And if we don't 350 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:32,560 Speaker 9: do our work, the market may explain to my colleagues 351 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 9: why we have to do our budget and reconciliation work. 352 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,200 Speaker 5: All right, We'll leave it on that note. Congressman Frank Lucas, 353 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,720 Speaker 5: Republican representing Oklahoma's third District. Joining us here on Bloomberg 354 00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 5: TV and Radio. 355 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:49,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch 356 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn 357 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:55,880 Speaker 1: on Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 358 00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 359 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:04,200 Speaker 1: flagship New York's station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 360 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:06,880 Speaker 5: Here in Washington, we're keeping an eye on the White 361 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 5: House as we anticipate the arrival of Israeli Prime Minister 362 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:13,879 Speaker 5: Benjamin Netanyahu, who's set to meet this afternoon with President Trump. 363 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 5: The one item that was previously on the schedule has 364 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:19,720 Speaker 5: now been removed. There will be no joint news conference 365 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 5: in the East Room as was previously planned, So for 366 00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:23,880 Speaker 5: more on that, we'd go back to the White House 367 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 5: where Bloomberg. Tyler Kendall is joining us once again. So Tyler, 368 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:30,800 Speaker 5: it's still going to be an opportunity for them to 369 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:32,919 Speaker 5: take questions, I guess, just in a different venue. 370 00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, Hey, Kelly, well it is breaking news. Per White 371 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:40,159 Speaker 4: House official, no more press conference at two thirty pm Eastern, 372 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 4: But as you say, we are still expecting this is 373 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 4: Raeli Prime minister to arrive here at the White House shortly, 374 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 4: and they will still hold that bilateral meeting in at 375 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 4: the Oval Office. Typically how this works is that they 376 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 4: are open at the beginning to press to ask some questions, 377 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 4: and we get that footage back live. So we'll have 378 00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 4: to see as of now that does still appear to 379 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 4: be on the table. We are still waiting for an 380 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:06,119 Speaker 4: exact reason as to why that press conference ultimately was canceled. 381 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:07,480 Speaker 5: Now we know, of. 382 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 4: Course that tariffs were expected are still expected to be 383 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 4: a top topic today. I was here yesterday when Israeli 384 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 4: Prime Minister Benjamin Enyaw who did arrive here in Washington. 385 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 4: There were reports that he had already started the negotiations 386 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 4: with some top senior administration officials when it did come 387 00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 4: to the tariffs. As you well know, Israel had lifted 388 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 4: most of its tariffs in the run up to April 389 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:29,399 Speaker 4: second in a bid to try to get ahead of it, 390 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:31,800 Speaker 4: try to strike a deal early, and they still were 391 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:35,200 Speaker 4: slapped with that seventeen percent Levy. Now our Bloomberg News reporting, 392 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 4: according to sources familiar, say that net and Yahu had 393 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:40,880 Speaker 4: called President Trump on the phone to try to negotiate 394 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 4: a deal. President Trump told him that he should come 395 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,639 Speaker 4: here in Washington to negotiate in person, and that is 396 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 4: how this visit was spurred today. So we're still going 397 00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:50,119 Speaker 4: to have to wait see further details. Other things that 398 00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 4: we know, other agenda items, of course, the ongoing war 399 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:55,439 Speaker 4: with Hamas and shared concerns when it comes to Iran. 400 00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:59,320 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall live at the White House shoulder to 401 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 2: shoulder with the Color Guard as we anticipate the arrival 402 00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:05,640 Speaker 2: of Benjamin Netanyahu. As Kaylee mentioned, the joint news conference 403 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,359 Speaker 2: has been canceled. We will hear from these two leaders 404 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,520 Speaker 2: in the Oval Office, and that's where we begin with 405 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:15,040 Speaker 2: our signature panel today. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and 406 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:18,400 Speaker 2: Genie Schanzeno are with us. Rick is our Republican strategist 407 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 2: partner at Stone Court Capital. Genie democratic analyst and senior 408 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:23,879 Speaker 2: democracy Fellow with the Center for the Study of the 409 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 2: Presidency in Congress. It's great to have you both here, 410 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:28,879 Speaker 2: an important day for the markets, an important day at 411 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 2: the White House. 412 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:29,879 Speaker 3: Genie. 413 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:33,879 Speaker 2: To know that this news conference has been canceled gives 414 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:37,200 Speaker 2: the White House more control over the conversation with reporters. 415 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,360 Speaker 2: I'm wondering your thought on the strategy here, because reporters 416 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 2: will be allowed in the Oval office. But that's a 417 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,399 Speaker 2: very different affair than having a formal news conference in 418 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 2: the East room. 419 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:49,920 Speaker 7: It absolutely is. And for somebody who for the last 420 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,920 Speaker 7: three months has been speaking to reporters openly day after 421 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 7: day after day, sometimes multiple times a day, as you 422 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:58,439 Speaker 7: both know, this is quite a switch for them to 423 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:02,239 Speaker 7: cancel this press conference. But I always wondered about this 424 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:07,159 Speaker 7: press conference. How could you have Benjamin who was standing 425 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 7: up there talking about negotiating these tariffs out while Donald 426 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:14,240 Speaker 7: Trump yesterday and the day before is saying this is 427 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:17,680 Speaker 7: a revolution in the country to revive the manufacturing base. 428 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:22,400 Speaker 7: It cannot be both. You can't both revive the manufacturing 429 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:26,679 Speaker 7: base and negotiate with a foreign country. And so that 430 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 7: is the sort of conundrum that Donald Trump has himself 431 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 7: in on what are the goals of this tariff policy. 432 00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 7: So I always thought it was going to be a 433 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,359 Speaker 7: very strange press conference to have them both up there, 434 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 7: and I think that they are still not sure how 435 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 7: they're going to move forward, and that's why we're seeing 436 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:43,440 Speaker 7: the cancelation. 437 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:47,440 Speaker 5: Well, but to Genie's point on whether or not this 438 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 5: is a negotiation. 439 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:48,760 Speaker 4: Rick. 440 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 5: You also have the President at the end of last 441 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 5: week talking about talking to the leader of Vietnam who 442 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 5: said he would drop all tariffs on US products. You 443 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:02,320 Speaker 5: have Japan apparently in conva with the President today, so 444 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 5: clearly talks are ongoing. And as we have an eye 445 00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 5: here on Bloomberg TV and on YouTube on the White House, 446 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:11,159 Speaker 5: we see President Trump awaiting another conversation as the vehicle 447 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 5: has just pulled up with the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin 448 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:17,000 Speaker 5: Nenniahu inside it. We're now seeing Joe those two leaders 449 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:17,679 Speaker 5: shaking hands. 450 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, quick can shake under the portalco. This is not 451 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 2: a formal arrival on the South portico, but they're in 452 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 2: fact right at the entrance to the West Wing, both 453 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,679 Speaker 2: wearing matching suits. Today it looks like benjaminett Yah who 454 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:33,919 Speaker 2: got the cue on the red tie. Indeed, they are 455 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 2: now heading back into the West Wing for an Oval 456 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:37,800 Speaker 2: office meeting around the top of the hour. 457 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,240 Speaker 3: We expect to have an ear on that. Yeah. 458 00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,879 Speaker 5: One of the questions reporters just attempted to shout at them, 459 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,760 Speaker 5: will you discuss tariffs on israel I? Think we know 460 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 5: the answer to that question, as we understood that it's 461 00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 5: one of the primary objectives of net Nyaho's visit today 462 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 5: is to have that conversation. But if that conversation is happening, Rick, 463 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 5: do we not define that as negotiation? 464 00:22:58,400 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 3: Yeah? 465 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,159 Speaker 11: I think by definition him being here and the tariffs 466 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:03,880 Speaker 11: are going to come up, that's a negotiation, because clearly 467 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 11: that's what Donald Trump wants it to be. You know, 468 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:10,320 Speaker 11: all weekend we had Cabinet members hitting Sunday shows saying, Hey, 469 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 11: we're going to work out deals on all these things. 470 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:15,960 Speaker 11: Be patient, let us do our work. Don't overreact to 471 00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 11: the teriff regime, all these numbers. Treasury Secretary best And said, 472 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:22,520 Speaker 11: this is the high water mark. You know everything is 473 00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,359 Speaker 11: going to come down from here, and so why not 474 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,000 Speaker 11: have your closest ally, one of your best friends in 475 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:32,120 Speaker 11: as a head of state, come to Washington, sit down 476 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:33,919 Speaker 11: in the Oval Office, and work out a deal. I 477 00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:38,760 Speaker 11: would be stunned that this visit does not result in 478 00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:42,800 Speaker 11: some kind of good news about a reduced tariff between 479 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,159 Speaker 11: Israel and the United States, because that is what the 480 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 11: White House desperately needs. Frankly, they need it worse than 481 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,719 Speaker 11: Beabing nit Yahoo needs and so I can't imagine this 482 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 11: isn't the beginning of a series of announcements that said, see, 483 00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,960 Speaker 11: we told you just give us time, we're going to 484 00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,880 Speaker 11: work out deals that are going to benefit the US manufacturing, 485 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:03,920 Speaker 11: you know, and supply capability. 486 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,680 Speaker 2: Is that going to be the role out here, Genie. 487 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 2: We heard from any number of administration officials yesterday giving 488 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:15,120 Speaker 2: us a bit of a confused idea on this. Peter 489 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,119 Speaker 2: Navarro as recently as this morning, was talking about raising 490 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:19,200 Speaker 2: revenue from tariffs. 491 00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:21,320 Speaker 3: He referred to them as tax cuts. 492 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:23,639 Speaker 2: But if you show up with a bunch of deals 493 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,080 Speaker 2: this week, we understand the phone was ringing all weekend. 494 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,879 Speaker 2: The President talked to Japan this morning. Now it's Israel today. 495 00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:33,200 Speaker 2: Obviously this isn't going to be a revenue generator. What's 496 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:34,360 Speaker 2: the market going to make of that? 497 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:35,960 Speaker 10: Yeah? 498 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,679 Speaker 7: I mean it is the uncertainty about what this is 499 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:42,680 Speaker 7: all about that continues. And while Donald Trump was winning, 500 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:45,040 Speaker 7: if you guys didn't hear he won, as he said 501 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,840 Speaker 7: five times, the golf tournament this weekend. He sent all 502 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,520 Speaker 7: these folks out on the Sunday show that Rick was 503 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:53,760 Speaker 7: talking about with mixed messages, some of them talking about 504 00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:57,639 Speaker 7: these fifty countries who are trying to negotiate. Then you 505 00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 7: also had Lutnick saying, no, there's no room for negotiation. 506 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,280 Speaker 7: So to me, there are two things here. Number one 507 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,719 Speaker 7: is there is a big break in the administration. You 508 00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:09,000 Speaker 7: have some folks who have a more traditional view. This 509 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 7: is negotiation. It's temporary, it's going to be over. Just 510 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,359 Speaker 7: wait and see Bill Lackman, you know, don't worry. Everything 511 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,280 Speaker 7: will be okay. And then you have other people like 512 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,679 Speaker 7: Howard Lutnik and like Peter Navarro who are saying, no, 513 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:26,440 Speaker 7: this is a remaking. And Donald Trump himself talks about 514 00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:30,119 Speaker 7: a revolution this weekend. And that's the problem with Rick's 515 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,399 Speaker 7: hope that they come out with a deal. If you 516 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 7: are a revolutionary and your base is waiting for you 517 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:40,520 Speaker 7: to bring manufacturing back and re sure, you know, help 518 00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,520 Speaker 7: all these forgotten men and women from this globalized economy, 519 00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:47,240 Speaker 7: how can you then be negotiating out deals with your 520 00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 7: allies or your enemies. The two don't go hand in hand. 521 00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,880 Speaker 7: And that's the problem, and that's what's creating all this uncertainty. 522 00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,880 Speaker 5: Well, and we know the markets don't love the uncertainty. Rick. 523 00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 5: It was interesting there was some is reporting Earlier today, 524 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:03,320 Speaker 5: a suggestion that the White House would be opened to 525 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,720 Speaker 5: a ninety day delay on tariffs saw the markets rally 526 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:10,439 Speaker 5: dramatically off the back after what opened after opening a 527 00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:14,680 Speaker 5: pretty steep lost territory is seven percent swing, and yet 528 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,480 Speaker 5: the positive reaction in the markets immediately slapped down when 529 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,199 Speaker 5: the White House itself pushed back and said that was 530 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,960 Speaker 5: fake news. What does it tell you that an opportunity 531 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:24,920 Speaker 5: to maybe alleviate some of the pain we've seen in 532 00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,440 Speaker 5: the equity market was not one that the White House 533 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,200 Speaker 5: decided to take. Does that suggest that they do want 534 00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:33,080 Speaker 5: to be seen as credible on this Yeah. 535 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:34,960 Speaker 11: Look, I think in order to be able to get 536 00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,199 Speaker 11: the kind of deals they want to get from a 537 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,919 Speaker 11: negotiated posture, they've got to show their resolve. And the 538 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 11: idea that we're going to kick the can for ninety 539 00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:47,240 Speaker 11: days maybe had been talked about and someone leaked it 540 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 11: who didn't know the final conclusion. But the bottom line 541 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:54,600 Speaker 11: is it actually shows how quickly the market is prepared 542 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,679 Speaker 11: to respond to any good news from tariffs. And so 543 00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:01,159 Speaker 11: that's why I think they're going to roll out a 544 00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:05,920 Speaker 11: series of quote progress reports on these terphrasemes because they 545 00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:09,080 Speaker 11: know that they've got an issue with getting into these 546 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,879 Speaker 11: sort of recessionary levels in the market, and they're going 547 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:14,520 Speaker 11: to try and put their finger in the dike on 548 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,880 Speaker 11: this one. It does not do this administration any good 549 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 11: to have the markets collapsing while they're trying to implement 550 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:28,400 Speaker 11: this weaker dollar, more tariffs reset of the global economic program. 551 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,239 Speaker 11: And by the way, let's be clear, that's what this is. 552 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:35,359 Speaker 11: It's not just a terif regime. They are restacking the 553 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:39,199 Speaker 11: global priorities based on what the strengths are of the 554 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:41,320 Speaker 11: US economy and not anything else. 555 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,560 Speaker 2: It's interesting that we're having this conversation after hearing from 556 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:50,439 Speaker 2: Bill Ackman, from Jamie Diamond, from Larry Finke today on Bloomberg. Genie, 557 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:52,520 Speaker 2: I wonder you heard the veto threat from the White 558 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,200 Speaker 2: House earlier, This idea of passing a bill that would 559 00:27:55,240 --> 00:28:00,240 Speaker 2: require congressional approval after sixty days on Tariff's veto threat 560 00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:01,000 Speaker 2: to the Speaker of. 561 00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:02,240 Speaker 3: The House his ally. 562 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,680 Speaker 2: But it is in fact the CEOs and the executives 563 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,800 Speaker 2: who appear to have his ear Is it the Acmans 564 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,640 Speaker 2: and Diamonds of the world who pull Donald Trump off 565 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:13,480 Speaker 2: the course on more tariffs? 566 00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:19,359 Speaker 7: I really hope, so somebody has to. I mean, you know, 567 00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,040 Speaker 7: I think there is a lot of wishful thinking here. 568 00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:24,560 Speaker 7: But let's take a step back and remember there is 569 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,440 Speaker 7: only one thing Donald Trump has been committed to publicly, 570 00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:29,960 Speaker 7: and that is this tariff regime. It is going to 571 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,320 Speaker 7: be very hard for him to walk away from that. 572 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:35,320 Speaker 7: That is going to require the Larry things, that Jamie Diamonds, 573 00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:38,520 Speaker 7: the Bill Ackmans, quite frankly, the Ben Shapiro's of the world, 574 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,080 Speaker 7: all of these folks Elon Musk out there saying this 575 00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,720 Speaker 7: is a problem. And then of course Congress has a role. 576 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:48,840 Speaker 7: And I think we can't forget the constitutional role of 577 00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 7: the courts here, because the way in which the President 578 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 7: did this, to declare a national emergency based on a 579 00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:59,040 Speaker 7: trade deficit that we have had since the nineteen seventies 580 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:03,479 Speaker 7: is highly constitutionally questionable. So those are the three groups 581 00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:06,080 Speaker 7: who have got to get to the President and walk 582 00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:07,880 Speaker 7: him off this ledge. But I think it's going to 583 00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:11,560 Speaker 7: be tougher because the President has long been publicly committed 584 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:15,400 Speaker 7: to this. He's not particularly intellectually curious, and so all 585 00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,040 Speaker 7: the people who are saying this makes no sense. He's 586 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:21,600 Speaker 7: out playing golf and million dollar a plate golf tournaments 587 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 7: this weekend. 588 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:25,400 Speaker 5: To Genie's point on the role of Congress Rick in 589 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,360 Speaker 5: our final minute here the White House, of course issuing 590 00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,240 Speaker 5: a veto threat of the bipartisan legislation that has been 591 00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,160 Speaker 5: put forward in the Senate to claw back some congressional 592 00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:37,520 Speaker 5: authority on tariff approval. Does that effectively kill that effort 593 00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:38,760 Speaker 5: or might they pass it anyway? 594 00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:41,600 Speaker 11: Yeah, it would be hard to get it on the 595 00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,160 Speaker 11: agenda in the House of Representatives with a veto threat 596 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:47,360 Speaker 11: from the President. I think the Speaker is still very 597 00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 11: much in league with the President on his priorities, even 598 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:52,960 Speaker 11: though I think they all are looking over their shoulder 599 00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:57,040 Speaker 11: at the twenty twenty six elections and what impact a 600 00:29:57,120 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 11: declining market at the hands of Republican is going to 601 00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,000 Speaker 11: look like when they try to run for reelection. So 602 00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,960 Speaker 11: there's a real there's a real tension right now in 603 00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,800 Speaker 11: the House of Representatives about trying to maintain a majority 604 00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:10,920 Speaker 11: through the midterms and still be able to do the 605 00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,840 Speaker 11: bidding of Donald Trump. He's making them walk this plank, 606 00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:17,920 Speaker 11: and I don't see any distance between the Speaker and 607 00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 11: the President at this point. That's going to cause a 608 00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:21,920 Speaker 11: revolt by Republicans in the House. 609 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:25,880 Speaker 5: Yeah, and the speakers are going to be preoccupied trying 610 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:29,160 Speaker 5: to advance budget matters this week. Anyway, Rick Davis and 611 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,280 Speaker 5: Jeanie Shanzino, our signature political panel here with us on 612 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,960 Speaker 5: Balance of Power. Thank you so much as always, and 613 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,440 Speaker 5: just to reiterate we did moments ago see the Israeli 614 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,040 Speaker 5: Prime Minister Benjamin Netnatt who entering the White House for 615 00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,840 Speaker 5: a conversation with President Trump. They will be answering questions 616 00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:46,240 Speaker 5: later on from the Oval Office. No Eastern news conference, 617 00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:50,960 Speaker 5: though we'll have more next. On Bloomberg TV and radio. 618 00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:55,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 619 00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:59,040 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E'stern on Apple, 620 00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:02,600 Speaker 1: Cockley and Android with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on 621 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,920 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 622 00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:08,720 Speaker 1: on YouTube right now. 623 00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,200 Speaker 5: If this holds with a twenty basis point move upward 624 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,239 Speaker 5: on the ten year treasury yield, that would be the 625 00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:17,280 Speaker 5: single largest single day move up in yields since September 626 00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:20,600 Speaker 5: of twenty twenty two. Pretty incredible to see that, and 627 00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:22,200 Speaker 5: we want to get more on what's happening, not just 628 00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,640 Speaker 5: in these markets, but what markets are signaling about the 629 00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:27,640 Speaker 5: forward look on the economy. Betty Stevenson is joining US now. 630 00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:30,719 Speaker 5: She's professor of public policy at the University of Michigan, 631 00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:33,880 Speaker 5: also former member of the Council of Economic Advisors during 632 00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:38,960 Speaker 5: the Obama administration. Betsy, Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. 633 00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,640 Speaker 5: As we consider here the idea that President Trump today 634 00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:44,600 Speaker 5: has floated even higher tariffs on China than previously thought, 635 00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:48,440 Speaker 5: potentially reaching one hundred and four percent with this current regime, 636 00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,520 Speaker 5: assuming there is no backing down, is this a greater 637 00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,120 Speaker 5: inflation risk or a growth risk to you? 638 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,320 Speaker 10: Oh boy, that's a really hard question. I think that's 639 00:31:58,320 --> 00:31:59,920 Speaker 10: why no one knows what the Fed's going to do. 640 00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:04,640 Speaker 10: You know that there is clearly an inflation risk, and 641 00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,280 Speaker 10: we know that these terrifts are going to bring inflation. 642 00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:11,040 Speaker 10: Of course, that what they bring is a one time 643 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:14,640 Speaker 10: jump up in prices, and so the FED has to ask, 644 00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:18,400 Speaker 10: can we look through this period of inflation, can we 645 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:22,840 Speaker 10: say transitory again, ignore it and then focus on the 646 00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:26,960 Speaker 10: growth because there's clearly going to be a big hit 647 00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:27,680 Speaker 10: to growth. 648 00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:28,760 Speaker 8: You know. 649 00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,640 Speaker 10: The the challenge I think that the FED has is 650 00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:36,480 Speaker 10: that it's you know, it's just not one hundred percent 651 00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:39,280 Speaker 10: sure what it should be doing. Does it want to 652 00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:42,480 Speaker 10: try to stimulate demand in this environment? Does it want 653 00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:46,040 Speaker 10: to slow demand down? You know, if I was there, 654 00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,880 Speaker 10: I'd be more worried about the risk to growth, because 655 00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:55,800 Speaker 10: you know, unemployment has long and permanent effects, so I 656 00:32:55,840 --> 00:33:00,000 Speaker 10: would really be focused on that. But equally, I think 657 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:01,360 Speaker 10: I think what they're going to have to be looking 658 00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,520 Speaker 10: at is not what do people expect for inflation this year? 659 00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:06,640 Speaker 10: We all know inflation is going to be higher this year, 660 00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:09,080 Speaker 10: but what do we expect is going to happen to 661 00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,720 Speaker 10: inflation in three, four or five years. And we have 662 00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:18,360 Speaker 10: very fragilely anchored inflation expectations right now. If they see 663 00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:21,280 Speaker 10: that fragility getting even worse, I think they're going to 664 00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:23,840 Speaker 10: have to turn to making sure that they keep those 665 00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:24,400 Speaker 10: anchors in. 666 00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:27,760 Speaker 2: We heard from Kevin Hassett over the weekend. He did 667 00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:31,000 Speaker 2: Sunday morning television Betsy and suggested that the phone is 668 00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:32,680 Speaker 2: ringing off the hook at the White House, and if 669 00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,320 Speaker 2: you listen to what he said, you might envision. 670 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,720 Speaker 3: A world where there are no tariffs in the near term. 671 00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:38,320 Speaker 3: Let's listen. 672 00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:42,320 Speaker 12: So the fact is, the countries are angry and retaliating 673 00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:44,640 Speaker 12: and by the way, coming to the table. I got 674 00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:47,200 Speaker 12: our report from the USTR last night that more than 675 00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:49,280 Speaker 12: fifty countries have reached out to the President to begin 676 00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:52,520 Speaker 12: a negotiation. But they're doing that because they understand that 677 00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:55,000 Speaker 12: they bear a lot of the tariff. And so I 678 00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:57,040 Speaker 12: don't think that you're going to see a big effect 679 00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 12: on the consumer in the US, because I do think 680 00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,280 Speaker 12: that the reason why we have a persistent, long run 681 00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:05,280 Speaker 12: trade deficit is these people have very in elastic supplies. 682 00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:07,800 Speaker 3: What's your thought on that. 683 00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,360 Speaker 2: We know that the President spoke with Japan earlier, today's 684 00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,960 Speaker 2: meeting with Benjamin nett Ya, who Now we get to 685 00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:15,440 Speaker 2: the end of the week. Let's say these fifty leaders 686 00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:18,759 Speaker 2: cut deals with the president. Do you look like a genius. 687 00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:20,680 Speaker 2: Market's up one thousand points. 688 00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:22,480 Speaker 7: No. 689 00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:24,920 Speaker 10: So I want to start with this simple thing. Look, 690 00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,160 Speaker 10: I don't even think Kevin Hassett believes what he was saying. 691 00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:32,080 Speaker 10: Why are our countries coming to the table, not because 692 00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:35,400 Speaker 10: they think they're going to absorb the price increase, but 693 00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:38,000 Speaker 10: because when prices go up all around the globe, we 694 00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:42,960 Speaker 10: all sell less. The stock market is not falling because 695 00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:46,279 Speaker 10: they're worried about having to pass through prices onto consumers. 696 00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:48,960 Speaker 10: And so when you pass on high prices, if the 697 00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:51,360 Speaker 10: price in Nikes goes up thirty percent, you know what 698 00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,879 Speaker 10: people are gonna do, buy fewer Nikes. And so even 699 00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:57,560 Speaker 10: if they're passing all those prices onto consumers, it's not 700 00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:00,600 Speaker 10: good for Nike profits because people don't buy the product. 701 00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:04,040 Speaker 10: And that's what countries all around the globe are worried about. 702 00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:09,240 Speaker 10: It's about the shrinking of trade, not about who's paying 703 00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:12,160 Speaker 10: the prices. The American consumer pays the prices, and the 704 00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:15,399 Speaker 10: administration even believes that they pay the price because they're 705 00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:18,399 Speaker 10: talking about the great you know, gain and revenue they're 706 00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:22,799 Speaker 10: gonna get from these from these tariffs. So they know 707 00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:26,200 Speaker 10: that the tariffs get paid here, that it's not going 708 00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:29,480 Speaker 10: to show up in terms of, you know, hurting some 709 00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:33,040 Speaker 10: other comfort some other country. So then you said, well, wait, 710 00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:36,960 Speaker 10: could Trump be the genius who eliminates tariffs. Tariffs were 711 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,960 Speaker 10: incredibly low before Trump started all of this. I think 712 00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:44,160 Speaker 10: the reason he has shocked market so much is because 713 00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:47,640 Speaker 10: everybody thought, oh, yeah, you know, maybe we're gonna get three, four, five, 714 00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:50,760 Speaker 10: six percent tariffs. They're gonna that's gonna be a huge 715 00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:54,120 Speaker 10: increase compared to the past, but not these numbers that 716 00:35:54,320 --> 00:36:00,360 Speaker 10: are like you know, early twentieth century tariffs. No nobody 717 00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:04,600 Speaker 10: expected them because they are enormous. No other country has them. 718 00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:08,399 Speaker 10: Calling them reciprocal tariffs is completely misleading. 719 00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:09,160 Speaker 1: It's not. 720 00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:12,879 Speaker 10: Vietnam is not charging US forty six percent tariff, which 721 00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:14,719 Speaker 10: is what we put on them. They're charging us like 722 00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:16,840 Speaker 10: a one and a half percent tariff. So is he 723 00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,240 Speaker 10: a genius if that one and a half percent tariff 724 00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:23,120 Speaker 10: goes away at the cost of all the turmoil he's 725 00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:27,040 Speaker 10: caused around the globe. I don't think so well. 726 00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:28,960 Speaker 5: One of the things he argues is that this brings 727 00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:32,239 Speaker 5: back more manufacturing to the US. My question, Betsy, is 728 00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:35,160 Speaker 5: when you consider that there's tariffs on actual raw materials 729 00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:38,240 Speaker 5: like steel and aluminum, potentially lumber coming down, what impact 730 00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,640 Speaker 5: that would have on actually the ability to build out 731 00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:44,680 Speaker 5: that infrastructure, let alone defined the labor force to build 732 00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:48,319 Speaker 5: those factories or populate them ultimately when construction is done. 733 00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:52,319 Speaker 5: Given some of the other efforts around migration, specifically in 734 00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:55,520 Speaker 5: this country, how easily can it realistically be achieved if 735 00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:58,400 Speaker 5: some of those barriers are put into plates, you. 736 00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,000 Speaker 10: Know, everything you said is exactly right. And then let's 737 00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:03,680 Speaker 10: add on top of that that it takes several years 738 00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:05,600 Speaker 10: to build a factory and get it up and running. 739 00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:10,600 Speaker 10: We're not talking about building uh, you know, factories in 740 00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:13,719 Speaker 10: the United States where we assemble nikes. We're talking about 741 00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,960 Speaker 10: paying more for nikes. You know, even if he's talking 742 00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:21,920 Speaker 10: about protecting American manufacturing, that he's he is hammering the 743 00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:26,240 Speaker 10: American auto industry with this. They are suffering more because 744 00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:31,839 Speaker 10: of all of the tariffs on the components of cars. Look, 745 00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:35,480 Speaker 10: we cannot have a car or even a bicycle without 746 00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:37,279 Speaker 10: imports because we don't have rubber in. 747 00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:38,280 Speaker 3: The United States. 748 00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:42,759 Speaker 10: So what are we supposed to do to actually move 749 00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,000 Speaker 10: that car down the road if we don't have wheels. 750 00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:50,080 Speaker 10: It's just not you know, it's it's doesn't make any sense. 751 00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,840 Speaker 10: If you want to support American manufacturing, you don't do 752 00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:58,480 Speaker 10: it by making all the ingredients in American manufacturing more expensive. 753 00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:03,960 Speaker 2: Betsy Stevenson was ready for this conversation. Professor of Public 754 00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,400 Speaker 2: Policy Economics, University of Michigan. 755 00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:08,040 Speaker 3: It's great to have you back on Bloomberg. 756 00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:10,080 Speaker 2: Betsy will be deeply curious to see Kayley with the 757 00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:13,799 Speaker 2: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey says at the end 758 00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:17,080 Speaker 2: of this week, as we really start to bump into 759 00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:21,040 Speaker 2: the corrosive impacts here the emotional impact of these tariffs 760 00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:22,200 Speaker 2: on the markets and consumers. 761 00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:29,520 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 762 00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:33,279 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 763 00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:35,960 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 764 00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:39,240 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 765 00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:40,960 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.