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Speaker 1: visit one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I'm Shad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: It's the Tuesday before March Madness begins. It's the most

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Speaker 1: wonderful time of the year. I am joined as I

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Speaker 1: am for every episode by my co host, my bff,

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Speaker 1: my companion, Mike and Padre Professional Better Simon Hunter. Aloha

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Speaker 1: swim in Aloha Chat. What a weekend we had? Rather

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Speaker 1: Duke won the ACC tournament unc isn't in March Madness

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Speaker 1: and the Bears traded the number one pick Chat. What

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Speaker 1: a weekend we listen, We're gonna get to March Madness

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Speaker 1: because I am so stoked about it. And our guest

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Speaker 1: today is Action Network Og, the first person I had

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Speaker 1: dinner with when I joined Action Network, which wasn't even

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Speaker 1: Action Network yet. We're talking September of twenty seventeen, a

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Speaker 1: leve ESPN on a Friday. That Monday, I'm in the

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Speaker 1: City Tuesday night, I go to dinner with the one

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Speaker 1: named Wonder Stucky, host of our BBOC podcasts covering college

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Speaker 1: football and college basketball, host of our BBOC Live show.

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Speaker 1: The guy has gone from you know, financy year to

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Speaker 1: full time media professional who can handle it all. He

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Speaker 1: was also host to Me and You, Simon and Matt Mitchell.

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Speaker 1: We had a great weekend in Lexington in the fall

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Speaker 1: for the Breeders Cup. We're gonna bring him on in

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Speaker 1: one second. Um, We're gonna talk all things March Madness

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Speaker 1: because he's brilliant at it. Named himself after his favorite

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Speaker 1: college basketball player. That's how much he loves and knows

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Speaker 1: college basketball. These fucking Bears, man, these fucking Bears. They

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Speaker 1: signed t J. Edwards from the Philadelphia Eagles. They're leading tackler.

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Speaker 1: They signed Tremaine Edmonds from the Buffalo Bills. Me, you

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Speaker 1: and Mitchell have been talking about that the last couple

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Speaker 1: of days, and you've kind of both been bringing me

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Speaker 1: down about the signing. They've they've traded the number one pick,

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Speaker 1: put ourselves in a position to get what we need.

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Speaker 1: In DJ Moore, I contend that Josh Allen did not

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Speaker 1: become Josh Allen until he had Stefan Diggs. Justin Fields

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Speaker 1: cannot be Justin Fields to his full potential until I

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Speaker 1: have someone like DJ Moore. We're building something special. No,

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Speaker 1: we love it. And it's as people were giving him shit.

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Speaker 1: They're like, oh, you're just making a pick on the Bear,

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Speaker 1: just as you do this show with Chad. I don't

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Speaker 1: care who Chad likes. That's irrelevant to me. Betting a

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl future, So feeling pretty good. If you got

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Speaker 1: the Bears at one hundred to one or eighty to one,

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Speaker 1: now they're down to fifty to one. This is a

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Speaker 1: scenario we dreamed of. They have the weapons, are slowly

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Speaker 1: adding the weapons the defensive side and the offensive side

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Speaker 1: of the ball. And if they keep adding guys at

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Speaker 1: offensive line again, I think you guys still have about

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Speaker 1: forty million left the spender or maybe forty five million

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Speaker 1: left to me, there's still room doing proof for this

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Speaker 1: Bears team and we're still just waiting just like everyone else.

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Speaker 1: If it Rogers leaves that division, chat I can easily

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Speaker 1: see the Bears going from plus three hundred to maybe

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Speaker 1: plus two fifty plus two hundred to win that division.

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Speaker 1: So it's really exciting if you're a Bears fan or

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Speaker 1: a Bears backer, just because they made the moves we're

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Speaker 1: hoping for. So yeah, it's never a dull nummon with

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Speaker 1: the NFL chat. I love it. I love it. There's

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Speaker 1: been so much exciting stuff going on, and we're going

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Speaker 1: to get to all of it before we bring in Stucky, who,

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Speaker 1: as I mentioned, hosts the Big Bets on Campus podcast.

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Speaker 1: Go check it out. To me, the Big Bets on

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Speaker 1: Campus Podcast. No disrespect to any podcasts, including ours. I

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Speaker 1: think it's probably the best representative of the confluence of

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Speaker 1: what I love about action. It's personality, it's connected to

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Speaker 1: the audience, it's research based, it's professional betting feel, it's glorious.

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Speaker 1: I freaking love it. Before we get to stuck you,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna remind everybody I have been talking about game Time,

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Speaker 1: that's sports ticketing app for weeks. It's the fastest growing

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Speaker 1: ticketing app in the US. I love it, honestly. I

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Speaker 1: use it all the time. And if you're looking to

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Speaker 1: get out to a proer college game this week, or

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Speaker 1: even a concert, game Time has amazing last minute deals

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Speaker 1: on tickets to all of these. I'm opening the game

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Speaker 1: Time app right now from my house here in Connecticut,

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Speaker 1: I'm in the app, I'm checking out events. I'm looking

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Speaker 1: at New York City York Rangers. Everyone thinks the Rangers

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Speaker 1: got a shot to win the Stanley Cup. I can

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Speaker 1: get in tonight less than one hundred and fifty bucks

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Speaker 1: for a team that is streaking towards the Cup. It

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Speaker 1: was just that easy. No matter where you live, download

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Speaker 1: of the Game Time app, get out and have some

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Speaker 1: fun this week. You deserve it, and you can redeem

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Speaker 1: code favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms

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Speaker 1: apply again. Just download the app and enter code favorites

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Speaker 1: for twenty dollars off. So download Game Time today, last

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Speaker 1: minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed at last we bring in

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Speaker 1: the og stucky. Let's going on, guys, Yeah, chat, It's

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Speaker 1: amazing how far we've come as a company when we've

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Speaker 1: When I first was brought on, we were Sports Action

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Speaker 1: webisode of Sports Action dot Io and Mead reached out

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Speaker 1: to me. It was like, we need we're you know,

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Speaker 1: we have this app and we're want to start a

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Speaker 1: company to eat someone with you content. Originally, for the

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Speaker 1: first three months back in twenty I was the only

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Speaker 1: I was the entire content team. I was. I was

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Speaker 1: the writer and the editor editing the editing team. So

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Speaker 1: I would write so I think like Daniel Scottie who

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Speaker 1: now does other stuff for us. And then I got Colin.

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Speaker 1: Eventually I just write a couple articles. But I was

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Speaker 1: writing like NFL college basketball, tennis, and then I would

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Speaker 1: edit it myself and then put it out on this

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Speaker 1: like Jankie h Sports Action dot Io website, and uh,

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Speaker 1: look how far we've come now, it's pretty well. Those

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Speaker 1: were the freaking days. Um. It was so early that

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Speaker 1: you had a private Twitter account and I had to

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Speaker 1: ask you to approve me so I could follow you. Yeah. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean I was working in in corporate America and

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Speaker 1: finance for a huge company that was pretty conservative, and

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Speaker 1: like I couldn't have them know well, I was spending

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Speaker 1: most of my time doing and it was funny that

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Speaker 1: at the that fall my boss, you know, and I

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Speaker 1: was kind of plateaued. I was a senior analyst, and

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Speaker 1: I was fine with where I was. I was spending

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Speaker 1: most of my time betting, and I didn't want to

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Speaker 1: badage people or anything, so but I was spending so

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Speaker 1: much time trying to put out content. We had told

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Speaker 1: started a podcast that my work was slacking. I had.

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Speaker 1: I had plans to leave on the first of the year.

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Speaker 1: But my boss, who was like some kid out of

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Speaker 1: like an NBA rotational program. He and I was still

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Speaker 1: getting everything I had done, but I just wasn't showing

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Speaker 1: up any meetings or anything. It couldn't show up in

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Speaker 1: any today. I would just go in the middle of

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Speaker 1: the night and do everything I had to do. And

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Speaker 1: he pulls me into his office. He's like, we had

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Speaker 1: to have a talk and you come into meet and

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Speaker 1: I was like, I know what he's so I just

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Speaker 1: stopped him before we started. It's like I'm gonna leave now.

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Speaker 1: And then he's like I'm I was like, I'm leaving now.

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Speaker 1: So I figured, like, you take two weeks. I was

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Speaker 1: like the only one in knew how to price some

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Speaker 1: of the rivers we were doing. But now that company

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Speaker 1: policies like you leave them like because you could take

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Speaker 1: didn't know if you're going to a competitor. So I

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Speaker 1: got like walked out and I was like, oh my god,

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Speaker 1: I'm really doing this. See I left left my entire career,

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Speaker 1: had my Masters in Finance CFA, and you know, sometimes

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Speaker 1: you got to take big risks, and that was my

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Speaker 1: ultimate gamble, and fortunately it paid off, and here we

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Speaker 1: are today, worked out for all of us, and now

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Speaker 1: we get to talk about betting and March Madness. You.

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Speaker 1: Mike Calabreeze was going to be on the show on Thursday.

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Speaker 1: Anthony Debundo Maria Marino had an amazing show on Sunday

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Speaker 1: night after the brackets were revealed, Road to the Final Score.

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Speaker 1: Everyone can go check it out on YouTube. I felt

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Speaker 1: fully prepped after watching that show about Who was Underseated Night?

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Speaker 1: Nick Giffin was on that show too, Who the Cinderellas Are?

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Speaker 1: I unloaded about ten to fifteen bets after that show.

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Speaker 1: So before we get to it, let's just talk about

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Speaker 1: Thursday for a second, because people are going to be

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Speaker 1: listening to this show over the next forty eight hours

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Speaker 1: as you look at the Thursday matchups. We're gonna talk

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Speaker 1: about Cinderella's, we're gonna talk about Final four, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: talk about dark Horses and all that. But Thursday's games,

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Speaker 1: So we're looking at the brackets. Starts at the West Virginia,

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Speaker 1: Maryland at twelve fifteen on Thursday. The last game of

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Speaker 1: the day is UCLA, UNC Asheville. Who were your picks

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Speaker 1: for that day? Who are your best bets for Thursday?

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Speaker 1: I don't want to make people wait. Yeah, well, it

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Speaker 1: started off the first games of twelve fifteen Eastern on

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Speaker 1: CBS between West Virginia and Maryland. Fun regional matchup. I

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Speaker 1: did play some under first half under sixty five. You

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Speaker 1: go back in the past, over the past twenty five years,

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Speaker 1: first half unders of seventy or lower have hit at

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Speaker 1: sixty six percent for these noon tips and in the

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Speaker 1: NCAA tournament, And it makes some sense like there's some jitters,

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Speaker 1: especially if like this first game, and I think that

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Speaker 1: that's the case for a lot of the games on

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Speaker 1: the first two days. As these teams come out and

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Speaker 1: your nerve, there's a lot of nervous energy. You kind

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Speaker 1: of feel each other out, and there's new rims so

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Speaker 1: and Marian plays really slow. I like the matchup for

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Speaker 1: both defenses. Marion doesn't really turn it over, which is

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Speaker 1: where West Virginia really thrives, and they can compete on

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Speaker 1: the glass against West Virginia. So I like both matchups

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Speaker 1: for the defenses. And I think that each team will

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Speaker 1: come out a little jittery and this will play a

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Speaker 1: little slower, So historically that's been a very good bet.

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Speaker 1: Twelve forty. I do like Ferment against Virginia gives me

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Speaker 1: similar vibes to Ohio as in another thirteen four match

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Speaker 1: of two years ago, who I loved against Virginia. It's

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Speaker 1: probably my favorite bet over the past couple of years

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Speaker 1: in the tournament and ended up out right. That game

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Speaker 1: is five and a half. By the way, Furman is

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Speaker 1: plus five and a half. Do you when you say

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Speaker 1: you like Furman, are you saying you like Furman outright? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I mean in my bracket, I'll probably pick them. I

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Speaker 1: think it'll it's a game that'll come down to the wire.

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Speaker 1: Furman has a an excellent offense. They play. You know,

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Speaker 1: they've led by two fifth year seniors in Mikey Bothwell

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Speaker 1: and Jaalen Slawson, and they play a five out offense,

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Speaker 1: so they're playing at all times pretty much with five

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Speaker 1: guys who can shoot, and you know they're not going

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Speaker 1: to try and go into the post, which is good

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Speaker 1: against Virginia. Virginia plays a pack line defense. You need

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Speaker 1: to shoot over the top of them, and I'm just

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Speaker 1: really down on the acc in general, and Virginia recently

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Speaker 1: lost one of its shooters in Ben vander Blass, who

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Speaker 1: I think they miss offensively. Their ceiling is just really

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Speaker 1: limited and they play really really slow, so it's hard

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Speaker 1: for them to blow out teams. There's just gonna be

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Speaker 1: a limited number of possessions in this game, which favors

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Speaker 1: the underdog. And that's kind of the theme, you know,

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Speaker 1: and Furman takes a ton of threes. They can make them,

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Speaker 1: they're experienced, and this game will have a limited number

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Speaker 1: of possessions. And that's kind of the formula with you know,

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Speaker 1: a good formula to look for if you're trying to

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Speaker 1: pick either underdogs in your bracket or upsets, I should say,

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Speaker 1: or betting some underdogs of these twelve thirteen, fourteen, fifteen seeds,

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Speaker 1: is you want to increase the variance of the game,

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Speaker 1: especially if you're looking the pulling out right upset, so

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Speaker 1: slower paced games. Teams that don't turn it over and

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Speaker 1: that can shoot that shoot a lot of threes and

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Speaker 1: can make a lot of threes, right, that's going to

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Speaker 1: increase the variants. Fewer possessions and then you know, teams

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Speaker 1: that can make a lot of threes and don't turn

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Speaker 1: the ball over that are just going to give away

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Speaker 1: possessions and let you know, most likely superior athletic teams

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Speaker 1: get out and transition and get easy buckets and put

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Speaker 1: big runs on them. That's the case here with Furman,

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Speaker 1: who can definitely shoot others. There's gonna be three point variants,

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Speaker 1: but they're missing all the threes. They'll you know, they're

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Speaker 1: gonna lose and they probably wouldn't cover. But I think

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be very comfortable in this matchup. I like

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Speaker 1: them an interesting Yeah, sure, hold on, because I do

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Speaker 1: feel like these first five six games on the board,

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Speaker 1: from what I saw of your show, you guys all

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Speaker 1: had almost consensus like your Cinderella parts were fermin Utash State,

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Speaker 1: which wasn't really a Cinderella, but compared to the SEC,

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Speaker 1: which is Missouri's coming out of that, you loved Utah State. Simon.

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Speaker 1: Every time I say a name, you oral Roberts against Duke,

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Speaker 1: Louisiana against Tennessee. Simon, every time I say a name,

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Speaker 1: you're shaking your head. Just if we've seen now basketball

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Speaker 1: college battle has changed so much with these last couple

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Speaker 1: of years, I mean, especially the last ten years where

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Speaker 1: you're looking at these twelve and five seeds, he's thirteen

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Speaker 1: and four seeds. I mean he spreads only five and

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Speaker 1: a half stuck six? Is are we better off? I

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Speaker 1: know I haven't put all the stat about if you

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Speaker 1: just take the money line of these five I mean,

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Speaker 1: of these thirteen and twelve seeds, you're better off than

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Speaker 1: just taking the spread, like it's more profitable over time.

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Speaker 1: Are you looking the same thing this year where because

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Speaker 1: these aren't spreads of eight or nine anymore, they're down

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Speaker 1: to five five and a half? Are we better off?

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Speaker 1: Like say I want to fade sant Ago State University?

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Speaker 1: Should I just take Charleston and just take the money line?

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Speaker 1: Or or are you still taking spread in a lot

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Speaker 1: of these games? Yeah, I'm still taking the spread, but

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Speaker 1: it's always I think prudent to sprinkle a little bit

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Speaker 1: on the money line as well. Over the past ten years,

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Speaker 1: eleven seeds actually have a winning record overall against six seeds.

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Speaker 1: I think they went three and one last year. Well, yeah,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned some of these shorter spreads. It's you know,

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Speaker 1: I'll bet the tournament til the day I die. It's

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Speaker 1: like a betting dances. This is the first college best

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Speaker 1: was the first sport I felt in love. Was first

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Speaker 1: sport I sort of betting in high school back in

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Speaker 1: you know, the early two thousands. I've built a following

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Speaker 1: on like the betting forms. Ah I was betting was

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Speaker 1: college basketball, And I can think back to like two

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Speaker 1: thousand and seven, two thousand and eight, and then even

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Speaker 1: you know, eight to ten years ago. The especially the

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Speaker 1: opening lines, but in general, the market was so inefficient,

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Speaker 1: and these openers on Sunday night after the bracket came out,

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Speaker 1: they would move so much. You would have these underdogs

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Speaker 1: that open way too high, and then they would just

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Speaker 1: get humbled and they would still probably open all the

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Speaker 1: tid Now and markets are getting more efficient with each

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Speaker 1: passing day. You have, you know a lot of analytical

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Speaker 1: sites out there. Just betting market in general is more intelligent.

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Speaker 1: So the market is just so much more efficient. You

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Speaker 1: see these underdogs open a lot shorter than they used to,

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Speaker 1: and you don't see as much moving in the market

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Speaker 1: from the opening spreads to you know, throughout the week

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Speaker 1: up until tip. And that's because the market is much

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Speaker 1: more efficient and much more keen to some of these

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Speaker 1: potential underdogs from mid major conferences. So yeah, it's it's

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Speaker 1: a wise observation on how much more efficient the market

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Speaker 1: has gotten and it's definitely not as easy to beat

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Speaker 1: as it used to be. Now do you see it?

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, you see like a George Mason type or

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Speaker 1: a Butler type. That could be some underdog that make

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Speaker 1: some crazy run about. You know, some team that has

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Speaker 1: four seniors that no one's talking about that are eleven

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Speaker 1: seed or a ten seed that can make a run.

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Speaker 1: That's that's my fair thing of college basketball. You get

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Speaker 1: these guys who they stay together for all these years

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Speaker 1: and eventually they clicks. I mean that which are Tall

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Speaker 1: State run? I remember they had all these crazy good

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Speaker 1: seniors and they made it tel Final four. Are there

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Speaker 1: any teams that pop out to you like that run

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Speaker 1: into this year stuck? Yeah? I mean, you just saw

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Speaker 1: a team in Penn State make a run. They're a

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Speaker 1: ten seed, you know they're they just made a run

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Speaker 1: as a ten seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Oddly enough,

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Speaker 1: they are the most experienced as far as just do

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Speaker 1: you want to experience the most experienced team in the country.

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Speaker 1: They can shoot, They attempt threes at a top ten rate.

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Speaker 1: They make threes at a top ten rate. They don't

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Speaker 1: turn it over, they don't foul, and it's just a

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Speaker 1: super experienced team with a great garden jay and picket

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Speaker 1: and they're kind of peeking at the right time. They

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Speaker 1: also have an excellent coach, one of the best schemers

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Speaker 1: and all of college basketball. That's really important something I value,

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Speaker 1: especially on these quick turnarounds. So the second days of

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Speaker 1: the weekend, so your second round and then in the

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Speaker 1: Elite eight. By the way, we'll be in Hoboken a

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Speaker 1: Mad Hatter for our watch party. To make sure check

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Speaker 1: that out attrawk dot com and RCP if you haven't.

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Speaker 1: But that's that's really important. That's where coaching can really

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Speaker 1: have an edge is when you have those quick turnarounds,

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Speaker 1: you have to prep for a team that you're not

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Speaker 1: familiar with on a day or two. So Penn State,

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Speaker 1: I think they match up well tex SA and M

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Speaker 1: because look, Texas A and M thrived during SEC play.

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Speaker 1: They give up a ton of three. Is one of

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Speaker 1: the highest three point attempt rates allowed in the country.

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Speaker 1: They go under screens that really aggressive. That works in

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Speaker 1: the SEC. Nobody can shoot in the SEC. Was the

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Speaker 1: worst three point shooting conference in the country, and there's

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Speaker 1: some bad conferences out there. But now they're gonna go

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Speaker 1: up again. The team that can really shoot Texas and

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Speaker 1: M also thris in the offensive glass, getting to the

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Speaker 1: line and turning teams over. Penn State doesn't foul, is

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Speaker 1: great on the defensive glass, and they don't turn it over.

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Speaker 1: So it's a team with good guards and shooting in

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Speaker 1: a great coach, and it's very experienced. They're a team that, look,

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Speaker 1: they get by Texas, A and M, it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a tough game, but I like the match up face

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Speaker 1: Texas in the second round. It's certainly a winnable game

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Speaker 1: if those threes are falling. So that's a team that,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's a power conference team, but it's a

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Speaker 1: ten seed that I think to make a run. As

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Speaker 1: far as a shocker shock, I mean, look, two years

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Speaker 1: ago we had a fifteen seed in Oral Roberts make

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Speaker 1: the Sweet Sixteen's only second second fifteen seed ever to

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Speaker 1: make the Sweet sixteen. Last year, Saint Peter's Trump Them

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Speaker 1: became the thirteen to make the Sweet six team and

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Speaker 1: the first fifteen seed to make the Lead eight. Can

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Speaker 1: I predict a fifteen you know, if you could predict

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Speaker 1: that you should be playing powerball, I don't know. I

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Speaker 1: mean I don't say it, but whoever does You never

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Speaker 1: really see it with a fifteen seed, I mean maybe

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Speaker 1: a team like Vermont Vermont profiles. You know that in

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Speaker 1: the East regional there's a lot of teams that are

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Speaker 1: that I think are overseeded, and there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: teams in the West that are underseated. I mean in

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Speaker 1: the West there's the top five teams are all on

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Speaker 1: the top eleven on Ken Palm. That's crazy. And then

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Speaker 1: if you have TCUs number six dealt with injuries all

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Speaker 1: year at full strength, there are arguably a top ten team.

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Speaker 1: So you can make a case you have six top

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Speaker 1: fifteen teams in the West, which is crazy. And then

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Speaker 1: in the East, you know produce of vulnerable one. Tennessee

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Speaker 1: is a vulnerable four. They lost one of their best

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Speaker 1: guards for the season. You know, you have a three

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Speaker 1: seed in Kansas State, who I have is like power

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Speaker 1: rated as like number twenty eight in the country, so

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Speaker 1: they should be like a six seed, you know. And

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Speaker 1: then Marquette maybe a run last weekend, very good team,

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Speaker 1: but they probably would have been a three if they

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Speaker 1: didn't win the Big East last week, So it's a

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Speaker 1: lot of overseated teams. Vermont profiles as a underdog that

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Speaker 1: can pull off an upset because they play slow, they

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Speaker 1: have tons of ball handlers and shooters so they don't

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Speaker 1: turn it over, and they're very well coached. So that's

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Speaker 1: a very dangerous team if the threes are falling. And

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Speaker 1: Shaka Smart, you know, take it back to the NFL

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Speaker 1: reminds me a lot of Mike Tomlin. He is a

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Speaker 1: uber motivator. Let the greatest of all time, look at

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Speaker 1: your word, so you know, his team's in the underdog role.

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Speaker 1: Only Tim Floyd over the past thirty years, is better

398
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Speaker 1: against the spread be than Shaka Smart is an underdog,

399
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Speaker 1: He's unbelievable. When his teams are in the underdog role,

400
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 1: it's us against the world. They come out and they

401
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 1: just thrive and they play with so much more energy,

402
00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 1: and that's you know, they kind of play above their

403
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,720
Speaker 1: talent level. But when they're a favorite, they don't really

404
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,360
Speaker 1: bring in as much. And over the past thirty years,

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Speaker 1: Shaka Smutch the fourth least profitable coach as a double

406
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Speaker 1: digit favorite. He's forty and sixty three against the spread.

407
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:44,440
Speaker 1: That's among eight hundred and fifty coaches. So the Marquette

408
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:46,879
Speaker 1: has struggled in this role before. I don't know if

409
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:48,720
Speaker 1: ver Mind is enough talent to get it done. But

410
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 1: they can shoot, they don't turn it over, they're not

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Speaker 1: going to beat themselves, and they're well coached. So if

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Speaker 1: I had to pick one, I would go with for

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Speaker 1: a Mond, A lot of people are gonna say Coolgate,

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00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 1: but Colgate plays no defense. They're gonna be at such

415
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:01,480
Speaker 1: an athletic disadvantage against a team like Texas. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: but those if you can predict the fifteen seat that's

417
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Speaker 1: gonna make a run, you're probably gonna win your bracket.

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Speaker 1: Ra Ra Shaka, Yeah, Hey column, Ra Ra Shaka. I

419
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:15,639
Speaker 1: hit that horn. Babe less dance this March. Take a

420
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 1: shot at college troops with a no sweat bet on

421
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,320
Speaker 1: fan Duel sports Book. It doesn't matter if you're new

422
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:23,160
Speaker 1: to FanDuel but already have an account right now, all

423
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 1: customers can tip off the tourney with a no sweat bet.

424
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 1: Just sign into your FanDuel sports Book account to claim

425
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 1: yours today, or if you're new to FanDuel, go to

426
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429
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Speaker 1: been eyeing this March. I'm riding with the Dukies as

430
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 1: my favorite team to bet all on an app that's safe, secure,

431
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457
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 1: West Virginia. We didn't finish your favorite bets for Thursday.

458
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 1: Simon immediately jumped into Cinderella's I know, we wanted to

459
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 1: talk about it's not a like I said, it's not

460
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 1: a it's not a Cinderella. But Utah State, Missouri. That

461
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 1: was one that immediately came up on Sunday night. The

462
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 1: line is bounced around. Utah State was a two and

463
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 1: a half. Now it's down to one and a half,

464
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 1: so it's moved in Missouri's direction. Actually one point favorite

465
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 1: at one point, so yeah, that line is moving over them.

466
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 1: It's a very It's a game that is the prototypical

467
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 1: analytics versus athletes games. So Utah State profiles very well analytically.

468
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,919
Speaker 1: They're like a top twenty team. Missouri does not. Analytics

469
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 1: hate this Missouri team, but they have really good athletes

470
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:12,640
Speaker 1: and they're gonna have a big athletic of them's against

471
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 1: Utah State. And the other thing working in Missouri's favor

472
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 1: is the Mountain West has been absolutely horrifying in the

473
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 1: term to ever won of games since twenty eighteen. I

474
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 1: think they're o and nine against the spread in their

475
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 1: past nine tournament games, and over their past fifty, I

476
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 1: think they're fourteen thirty five and one. So it has

477
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,880
Speaker 1: not been smart to back the Mountain West. I'm gonna

478
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 1: go against the Grain here and I did play Utah State.

479
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 1: I like the matchup for them. These are two teams

480
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 1: that are super three point relying. There's gonna be a

481
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 1: ton of threes in this game, a ton of points.

482
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 1: But Utah State does a better job of defending the three.

483
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:49,439
Speaker 1: And again, like I said, Missouri gets up a ton

484
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 1: of threes, and like I said before the SEC, that's

485
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 1: okay because no one can shoot in the SEC. Utah

486
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 1: State one of the best three point shooty teams in

487
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 1: the country. Missouri also will throw out a bunch of zone,

488
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,159
Speaker 1: they'll press you a bunch, so they mix up your defenses.

489
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 1: But Utah State raids out elite against the zone and

490
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:10,359
Speaker 1: against the press, so I like them here. Well, I

491
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 1: keep in mind the totals one fifty five. I would

492
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 1: look at the overto I think both teams are going

493
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 1: to score. It will keep it. Keep this in mind

494
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 1: when you're betting the tournament. These games with higher totals,

495
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:24,879
Speaker 1: with you know, implied offense all over the place, you

496
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 1: can live bet too, so you don't have to bet

497
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 1: ahead of time. And you know, I think there's gonna

498
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 1: be a lot of swings in this game. So you know,

499
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 1: I bet Utah State, and I'm going to look to

500
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 1: bet Utah State some more. If Missouri goes on a run,

501
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 1: I expect this. The game maybe back and forth, but

502
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 1: I have a ton of respect for both coaches. But

503
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 1: I just think the Utah State offense will get better

504
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 1: looks from three and they can make them. But but

505
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:50,159
Speaker 1: we had an athletic this event, and so it's definitely

506
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 1: an intriguing matchup. All Right, I want you to because

507
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 1: there's other stuff I want to get to. Just give

508
00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:01,159
Speaker 1: me a name of your favorite bets. I don't need

509
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 1: an explanation, just the name of your favorite bet for

510
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 1: Thursday that we haven't discussed so far, we've gotten West

511
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 1: Virginia conversation Furman Uva Utah, Stay Missouri. Over the remaining games.

512
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 1: What are your favorite bets? Because I do have to

513
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 1: ask you about a specific game. So just give me

514
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 1: the team of your favorite bet. Oral Roberts is the

515
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,960
Speaker 1: one that we didn't mention. I would look to see

516
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:29,120
Speaker 1: if you can get a seven. It's down to six

517
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 1: and a half. Now you might get some late Duke money,

518
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 1: but yeah, I make that game three and a half,

519
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:36,439
Speaker 1: and I Duke has improved significantly, a lot of talent,

520
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 1: but I think a lot of it's smoke in mirrors.

521
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 1: They run through the acc which is so down. You know,

522
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:42,959
Speaker 1: you play on Miami team who lost one of their

523
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,359
Speaker 1: best players in the first minute, a Virginia team that

524
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 1: lost one of their key players recently. So, yeah, Duke,

525
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 1: after winning the conference tournament, everyone saw this run. It's Duke.

526
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 1: I think they're a little overvalued here. And well Roberts

527
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 1: is great. I mean, the going seventeen to run and

528
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 1: they have Max Asmith, one of the best guards in

529
00:27:56,560 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 1: the country. They've done this before. Their defense even better

530
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:02,639
Speaker 1: than the team that made a run. Or Roberts is scary.

531
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 1: If Duke wins that came, they can make a deep,

532
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 1: deep run and they're the rightful favor. But Ora Roberts

533
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 1: can put a scare in them if faces is going

534
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 1: off and Duke struggles defending the pick and roll, and

535
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 1: that's what Ora Roberts is going to do all game.

536
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:15,439
Speaker 1: That is one of the games I'm looking forward to

537
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 1: the most of the entire first round. Well, that's the game, Salmon.

538
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 1: I want you to ask about Duke because I know

539
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 1: how much you love the Dukies. Yeah, I love. I mean,

540
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 1: it's it's lazy, cap, you know, I'll admit to that.

541
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 1: But it's the rule of thumb I live by, which

542
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 1: is you bet a team that wears blue to win

543
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 1: the national championship. It sounds lame, but it's been good

544
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 1: to me, and last year I had Kansas that hit

545
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 1: from me. I think I gave him out eleven to

546
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 1: one or ten to one. This year, it feels like

547
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 1: Duke's that team of like you just talked about, if

548
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 1: they can get through this first round, it seems set

549
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 1: up really nice for them, and you know, they're in

550
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,959
Speaker 1: a conference where, like you talked about, there's some conference

551
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 1: that are overloaded with weird seating or Duke doesn't really

552
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 1: have that. I kind of kind of can see their

553
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 1: clear path to that final four. My only hesitation is

554
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 1: I don't want to put it on but the head coach, right,

555
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 1: coach k had been there so many times before. That

556
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 1: is such a huge deal. I mean, even we can

557
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 1: say we want about Syracuse when they were in the tournament,

558
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 1: they were just different, right because it felt like because

559
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 1: the coach had been there before and everything gets a

560
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 1: little tighter in the tournament. Do you think it's going

561
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 1: to play out bad for Duke because of the head

562
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 1: coach stuck or do you think that doesn't matter for them,

563
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 1: that it really is about the players? But am I

564
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 1: were thinking this too much that I'm a little worried

565
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 1: about that coach even though I'm with Chad, I bet

566
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,600
Speaker 1: Duke to win it all. My only hesitation is the

567
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 1: head coach. Yeah, I mean, there's the head coach mounters,

568
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 1: like I said, on those quick turnarounds, especially when you

569
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 1: have to prep quick. But I've been pretty impressed with Shire.

570
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 1: Duke does have some maybe similar vibes to North Carolina

571
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 1: last year struggled a bit during the season, you know,

572
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 1: turned it on late with a first year head coach.

573
00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 1: Talented team, and they get in and you know, and

574
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: they knocked off Carolina a few times, just like Carolina

575
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 1: knocked them off. And they get in and they make

576
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 1: a deep run, and you're right that they They're in

577
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 1: that East regional as the five seed, and I think

578
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 1: that the you know, there's a bunch of teams that

579
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 1: are overseated in that region. I'm hoping, just from a

580
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 1: selfish perspective here in lex than we get a Duke

581
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 1: Duke Kentucky a leading which would be awesome. But yeah,

582
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 1: I mean, Sarah, there's a quick plug and a couple

583
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 1: of things all about I have. I have a piece

584
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 1: that's out that'll be out today ranking the the chances

585
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 1: of the thirteen through fifteen seeds, and they're best, the

586
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 1: best chance of pulling off an upset. And it's not

587
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 1: just spread based, but that would be easy to do

588
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 1: you just look at the spreads. It's more which games

589
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 1: have the highest variants and like so like which games

590
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:44,920
Speaker 1: are gonna be slow? Are there gonna be a lot

591
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 1: of threes? Like which the team's profile as an underdog

592
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 1: that could pull off a stunner And then so make

593
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 1: sure you check out I think a lot of the

594
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 1: teams on Friday, and then you know, you guys, gonna

595
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 1: be another episode. Mike Calvary's some of the you know, UCSB,

596
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 1: Montana State, Vermont, those are the teams that profile is

597
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 1: you know, your thirteen fourteen, fifteen seats that could potentially

598
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 1: off an upset. But you mentioned, yeah, the coaching with Syracuse.

599
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 1: A lot of why they were always so successful in

600
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 1: a tournament format as they played a zone defense, and

601
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 1: not a lot of teams play his own or see

602
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 1: a zone and they get out of conference and you're

603
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 1: playing a team in a scheme that's unfamiliar to you,

604
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 1: and you don't have that much time to prepare for it.

605
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 1: You don't even know your opponent. A lot of times,

606
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 1: you know, especially in the second day of the weekend

607
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 1: and all of another piece outgoing through who are his

608
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 1: own teams to press teams and looking for those outliers

609
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:39,719
Speaker 1: of different unique styles and schemes. But yeah, I mean

610
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 1: the experience of Shire on those quick turnarounds. It could

611
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 1: prove to be Duke's fatal flaw. But I've been pretty

612
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 1: impressed with what he's done this year, and I think

613
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 1: that he was doing a lot towards the end of

614
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 1: Coach K's tenure. You don't have that steadying force there.

615
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 1: But Duke, if they can get buy all Roberts so

616
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: thinks could be a really good game. Yeah, they certainly

617
00:31:57,840 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 1: can make a run. They're in the right bracket to

618
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 1: do so. The East is wide open, a lot of

619
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 1: overseated teams as opposed to the West, where everybody is underseated.

620
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 1: Breaking news, Um, the Bears have resigned long snapper Patrick Scales.

621
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 1: Surprise those I'm surprised. I'm surprise those odds aren't already

622
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 1: dropping by the way, stuck. Surprise you guys didn't sign

623
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:29,479
Speaker 1: another linebacker. They listen, the monsters are back. That's all

624
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 1: I gotta say. Yeah, earlier in the show, you started

625
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 1: talking about our March Madness watch party, which anyone can

626
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 1: go to for free. It's a Mad Hatter in Hoboken,

627
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 1: New Jersey, on March twenty fifth at six pm. I'm

628
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 1: gonna be there. You're gonna be there. Rayburn's gonna be there,

629
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 1: Maria Marino's gonna be there. Matt Mitchell's gonna be there. Michell. Yeah.

630
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 1: Three quarters seventy five of the wolf Pack. That's this

631
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 1: group right here there, and so I'm super excited about that.

632
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 1: If I were you, you want to, we want you

633
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 1: to RSVP. Just go type in Action Network and Mad

634
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: with two d's Hatter m A D D Hatter into

635
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 1: Google and you're gonna get the link to go RSVP.

636
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 1: Go RSVP, hang out with us. There's a ton of

637
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 1: sports that night. True story three years ago this week.

638
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:30,720
Speaker 1: Basically we had a deposit at Mad Hatter for a

639
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 1: watch party for March Madness. Obviously we're delayed three years,

640
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 1: but we're glad to be going back there to do it.

641
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 1: Um So I've been there. Report's a really good spot

642
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 1: for to watch the tournament. It's a stock. Last time

643
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 1: you and I watched a big event in New Jersey

644
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 1: was the Super Bowl when ut yeah, Patrick, Patrick Mahomes

645
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 1: dropped back eighteen times to lose twenty seven yards and

646
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 1: go under his rushing total. Thank God for all of us.

647
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 1: All Right, we've talked about some picks. We've talked about

648
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 1: Duke specifically. We've given a little bit of conversation around

649
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 1: dark Horse in Vermont. Here's what I want to know.

650
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:16,359
Speaker 1: Tell me about your final four. Well, we will have

651
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 1: a I feel like this is a show of plugs,

652
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 1: but we have such so much contact. I'm like, we

653
00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:22,560
Speaker 1: have a bracket reveal show, right, are we going to

654
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 1: reveal our brackets? I think tomorrow. I think tomorrow, me, you,

655
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 1: Raybon and Maria Marino have a little bit of a

656
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:31,959
Speaker 1: bracket reveal show. But I'm okay with you telling people

657
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 1: right now. So yeah, but I'm just all I'm gonna

658
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 1: say is on that show. Make sure we'll tweet it

659
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 1: out and stuff. Will be my final final, final four,

660
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 1: so like I'm still working through the games and so

661
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 1: this is subject to change, but I'll be locking in

662
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 1: my final four. Then I only enter like big pools,

663
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 1: And it's important to keep in mind, by the way,

664
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 1: like if you enter like a really big pool, you

665
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,240
Speaker 1: want to take some shots and you want to be risking,

666
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:01,879
Speaker 1: then take a look at like, you know, well, we'll

667
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 1: have percentages on the brackets and you can find them

668
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 1: out there, and you know, every if everyone has this

669
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 1: one team winning, it are gone to the final four, Like,

670
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 1: don't pick them. If you want to win a big pool,

671
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 1: you're gonna have to stand out. So I do take

672
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:18,279
Speaker 1: a little riskier route up. So we'll start in. They

673
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 1: eat in the West, which is loaded, and I think

674
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 1: it's a good bracket to take a chance on with

675
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 1: you know, arguably six top fifteen teams because there could

676
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:29,920
Speaker 1: just be carnage all over and even Kansas, Arkansas's three

677
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 1: potential first round draft picks, Illinois super talented. They could lose.

678
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:35,319
Speaker 1: I could. I think they're Them and Perdue are very

679
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 1: vulnerable in the second round. They're the ones season could

680
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 1: go down in the second round. So that's wide open.

681
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:44,319
Speaker 1: And my preseason, my only preseason future was TCU. I'm

682
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:46,799
Speaker 1: gonna I love the matchup for TCU against Gonzaga because

683
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,360
Speaker 1: TCU was great when they run, and then UCLA is

684
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 1: dealing with some injuries, so I'm going TCU out of

685
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,440
Speaker 1: the West. I'm gonna be stubborn. They have you know,

686
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:58,239
Speaker 1: they can defend very experienced, good coach NBA guards like

687
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 1: guards play in March, and TCU is one of the

688
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:04,719
Speaker 1: best in Mike Miles going to the Midwest, I think

689
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 1: the Midwest is gonna play out fairly, Chalky. That's where

690
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:12,279
Speaker 1: I'm taking Houston to get through. I think that they

691
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:14,880
Speaker 1: have a potential injury to Marcus Saster. I think it's

692
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 1: gonna be fine. He hurt his groin. But I don't

693
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 1: see anyone that's gonna take them. I mean maybe Indiana,

694
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 1: but Indiana has a brutal, brutal pod. I mean Kent

695
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:25,839
Speaker 1: State in the first round could beat them, Drake could

696
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 1: beat them in the second round, or Miami if they're healthy.

697
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 1: So I think we're gonna get like Texas Houston to

698
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:34,399
Speaker 1: be a fun lead eight. I'm gonna take Houston there

699
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 1: to get to the final four. I'm going back and forth.

700
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 1: I might end up taking Texas, but for now we'll

701
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 1: go Houston. TCU gotta get stop with these Texas teams.

702
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 1: And then in the South, I think the South will

703
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 1: also play out fairly. Chalky. Can't see anyone given Alabama game,

704
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:50,759
Speaker 1: maybe San Diego State in the Sweet sixteen, if they

705
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,719
Speaker 1: can just slow that game to a halt and get

706
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:57,439
Speaker 1: Alabama uncomfortable. But I think Alabama has too much talent.

707
00:36:57,440 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 1: They're gonna get to the lead eight and and it's

708
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:03,919
Speaker 1: you know, Arizona Creighton. I think Baylor has too many

709
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 1: defensive issues. So I think it's gonna be chalky there

710
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 1: in the South too, with a one or two seat,

711
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:12,360
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Alabama for now. Kurk Creasa, Arizona's guard

712
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:15,919
Speaker 1: very erratic. He's dealing with injury, but there's shoulder. It's

713
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 1: really detrimental to his shooting right now. So let's go Arizona.

714
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:26,719
Speaker 1: Excuse me, Alabama Houston TCU. So we got a one

715
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 1: to one to six seat. And in the East, that's

716
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 1: the other region where I think it's gonna be Carnage

717
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 1: take a shot. All these teams that are overseated Perdue

718
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 1: could easily lose in the second round to Memphis or FAU.

719
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 1: I don't know who's gonna win that game though, but

720
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:38,840
Speaker 1: if Memphis does, I think they can go to the

721
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:42,920
Speaker 1: Final four. So yeah, why not go out on a limb.

722
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:46,240
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be maybe Marquette Memphis, but Marquette

723
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:47,840
Speaker 1: is a tough first round. So let's go Memphis in

724
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:56,799
Speaker 1: the final four. Memphis, Alabama, TCU, and Houston. You got

725
00:37:56,800 --> 00:38:03,799
Speaker 1: a one, A one, a six, and an eight. You

726
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:08,080
Speaker 1: know why I'm excited about this. I know significantly less

727
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:14,799
Speaker 1: about college basketball than you do. And I was doing

728
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:18,080
Speaker 1: my brackets. As I said, we're gonna do a bracket reveal,

729
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 1: show me you Maria and Raybone tomorrow. It's Wednesday. Mariah

730
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 1: and I were reviewing our brackets last night, and we

731
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:34,439
Speaker 1: ended up in a relatively similar place with the one

732
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,799
Speaker 1: seeds you suggested and some wild cards coming out of

733
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:41,359
Speaker 1: the West and the East. So I'm excited for us

734
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 1: to continue talking about that because that's it feels like

735
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 1: we're inning up in the same place. Yeah, but if

736
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 1: you're just I will say, if you're in a smaller pool,

737
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 1: like this is my final four, and I'm in like

738
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:51,920
Speaker 1: really really big pools which are hard to win, but

739
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 1: you're in a smaller pool, an office pool, you probably

740
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 1: don't want to take Memphis to go to the final four.

741
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 1: There are two point favorite in the first round, so like,

742
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 1: the FA is a really good team to Shane, they

743
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:04,359
Speaker 1: got massed up the good But if Memphis goes down

744
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:05,879
Speaker 1: on the first day and you're like a smaller pool,

745
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:07,759
Speaker 1: You're you're done, and you don't want that to happen

746
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:09,279
Speaker 1: if you're in a smaller pool. But if you're in

747
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 1: a really big pool and you're trying to win it,

748
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 1: you gotta take some shots and take some chances, and

749
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:17,840
Speaker 1: you know, so maybe that's when you do have a

750
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 1: Memphis getting to the final four. That's when you take

751
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:22,319
Speaker 1: a TCU. Also, a lot of people I think are

752
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,920
Speaker 1: gonna go chalky in those two top regions. So if

753
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:26,360
Speaker 1: you're trying to win a bigger pool, maybe you do

754
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:28,799
Speaker 1: have Alabama going down to San Diego State and your

755
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 1: root for that. If Alabama goes down along the way,

756
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:35,800
Speaker 1: then you're sitting pretty in your bracket. So there's a

757
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 1: lot of game theory. And then depending on the size

758
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 1: of your pool, especially bigger pools, you want to be

759
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 1: a lot riskier and take some chances. But yeah, and

760
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:46,359
Speaker 1: Memphis certainly is because they're playing basically a coin foot

761
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:48,279
Speaker 1: game in the first round and you're gonna have a

762
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 1: lot of trouble winning your bracket. If your final four

763
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 1: teams album one of the first two days. Simon, do

764
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:59,799
Speaker 1: you have a final four set. No, I was gonna,

765
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:01,880
Speaker 1: I was gonna listen to these guys before I do anything,

766
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 1: because I just I know, I don't know anything, Like

767
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 1: I'm just very it's how you win it. That's the

768
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 1: people that win it. We don't know anything. It's true.

769
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 1: So it's true. But like last year, you know, you

770
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:16,319
Speaker 1: guys really helped me big time. So that's why I'm

771
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 1: just gonna be patient and try to hear everyone's opinions

772
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 1: before I make anything done, because I I kind of

773
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 1: do what stuck you talking about where I'll do one

774
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,400
Speaker 1: of my brackets just not thinking just do it in

775
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 1: a smaller group. But with these my bigger money ones,

776
00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:30,120
Speaker 1: I try to take it more serious. So I try

777
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 1: to get all the info before I do anything. I

778
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 1: but speaking of brackets, I used to Now I only

779
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 1: do one bracket, like that's what I've done. Now, if

780
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,360
Speaker 1: I enter a smaller pool, maybe I'll do something different.

781
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 1: But I used to, like going back fifteen plus years,

782
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 1: cha when you were at ESPN the ESPN Tournament Challenge

783
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 1: where if you won the bracket, and in two thousand

784
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 1: and four, I was in first place and I had

785
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 1: of like, I don't know, there was hundreds of thousands

786
00:40:56,040 --> 00:40:58,239
Speaker 1: of people in that I was in first place in

787
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:00,719
Speaker 1: the Elite eight going into the Elite eight, and I

788
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:03,880
Speaker 1: had Arizona beating Illinois, and they were up by like

789
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:05,959
Speaker 1: twenty with eight to go, and I had Arizona winning

790
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:08,839
Speaker 1: at all. So leem staldemyer that team and Illinois had

791
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:10,920
Speaker 1: one of the Luther head and that John Willing, that

792
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 1: they had one of the craziest comebacks that I'll never forget, yes,

793
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 1: and that that cost me potential of winning it. I

794
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 1: don't know how it would have played out. I was

795
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 1: going through all the hundreds of people in the leaderboards

796
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:22,920
Speaker 1: that are like but I used to fill out for that.

797
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:26,319
Speaker 1: You could fill out up to ten brackets, so and

798
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 1: then you had to put in like your information to win.

799
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:31,880
Speaker 1: I used to put in my my information, my mom's,

800
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 1: my dad's, my brothers, my sisters, and I would have

801
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:38,799
Speaker 1: fifty brackets in that ESPN challenge and then I would

802
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 1: print them all out and then have them all and

803
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 1: spread out in front of me all weekend. But now

804
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:46,919
Speaker 1: now I'm a one bracket guy. But that was I'll

805
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 1: never forget that game. Almost almost it was nineteen almost twenty,

806
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:55,160
Speaker 1: about twenty years ago when Illinois. Do you haven't watch

807
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:56,919
Speaker 1: that game, go just YouTube it and watch the final

808
00:41:56,960 --> 00:42:00,360
Speaker 1: ten minutes. It was horrendous, a horrendous meltdown by Arizona,

809
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 1: great comeback by Illinois. It's a It's a fucking insane game.

810
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 1: I remember exact you where I was when I was

811
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:09,879
Speaker 1: watching it. And because I'm from Chicago and always liked

812
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:13,800
Speaker 1: Illinois basketball going back to the early eighties. Because remember,

813
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:18,720
Speaker 1: I'm older than all of you, that comeback was insane Adams,

814
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:22,360
Speaker 1: but three, he's got a hurry, finally forced to shoot

815
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:33,960
Speaker 1: over time, truly truly insane, stuck. Before we let you go,

816
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 1: I've got your final four picks. From those final four,

817
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 1: can you give me a national champion? Well, I should

818
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:43,319
Speaker 1: be stubborn and say TCU, but they lost. They lost.

819
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 1: Eddie Lampkin is really important to them. He left the

820
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:50,879
Speaker 1: team recently. Um So I'm gonna go with as of now,

821
00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 1: the safest pick I think, which is Houston. I think

822
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 1: that they're the given their region and their experience coaching.

823
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:03,000
Speaker 1: I think that they are pretty upset proof. Now They're

824
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 1: gonna lose to the eight seen in the second round,

825
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:06,319
Speaker 1: but I think that they have a really easy path

826
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:10,440
Speaker 1: of the lead eight, and I trust their defense and experience.

827
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go narrative Houston. What

828
00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:20,400
Speaker 1: I can hear Jim Nance now saying what he said, Houston,

829
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:25,400
Speaker 1: you have a champion or something or Houston US you

830
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 1: don't have any problems. Yeah, something like that. Houston, there

831
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:34,080
Speaker 1: are no problems tonight. There's something that is narrative. By

832
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 1: the way, because this is Jim Nance's last Final four,

833
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 1: right and Jim Nance famously went to the University of Houston. Yeah,

834
00:43:45,160 --> 00:44:05,319
Speaker 1: time to do something for the fixed season. There are produced, Yes,

835
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:10,279
Speaker 1: So I'm going full on narrative Houston in Houston with

836
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:11,960
Speaker 1: a super experience scene that I think as a really

837
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 1: favorable path um. And I think Marcus Sass will be healthy.

838
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:17,919
Speaker 1: He's important. But thee is potentially gonna suit up on Sunday.

839
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:19,400
Speaker 1: They already had one seat, so they held him out

840
00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:23,360
Speaker 1: precautionary for Precautionariason, I think we'll play. They called Sampson's

841
00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:25,759
Speaker 1: one of the best coaches in the country and this

842
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:29,799
Speaker 1: team is very very good. So yeah, I'll go. I'll

843
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:33,840
Speaker 1: go Chalky Narrative at Houston as my national title winner

844
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:36,359
Speaker 1: all right. Uh, last thing before we get out of here.

845
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 1: Another breaking news, Uh, the eight Bears have signed four

846
00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:44,520
Speaker 1: more linebackers. The Bears resigned their top fullback, but also

847
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:48,799
Speaker 1: the considerance college basketball, The AP just released it's uh

848
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:54,120
Speaker 1: first team Hits All American Team. Zach Eatie from Purdue,

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00:44:54,520 --> 00:45:03,800
Speaker 1: Trace Jackson Davis from Indiana University. UM, let's see Jalen

850
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:10,840
Speaker 1: Wilson also made the team, and let's see Marcus Sasser.

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00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 1: As you just mentioned in Brandon Newer, those are the

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00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:18,000
Speaker 1: five AP All Americans. We will be seeing them all

853
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:22,360
Speaker 1: in the tournament. Multiple players from I got one player

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00:45:22,360 --> 00:45:25,400
Speaker 1: from each of the top four seeds plus Trace Jackson Davis.

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00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:28,719
Speaker 1: Stucky every wait wait, wait, wait chat before we run,

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00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:32,120
Speaker 1: we might not see Stuck again before this happens. Stuck

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00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:41,480
Speaker 1: you what do you want, Lamar or the picks? Picks? Wow? Wow? Shocker? Yeah?

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00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:44,279
Speaker 1: All right, listen, I gotta remind everybody. Also, we've been

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00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:47,240
Speaker 1: talking about all this college basketball betting. The playing games

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00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:49,839
Speaker 1: are tonight, It's Tuesday and tomorrow Wednesday. So if you're

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00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:52,239
Speaker 1: looking to bet the first four games to start off

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00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:56,239
Speaker 1: March Madness, you must, must, must check out our first

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00:45:56,239 --> 00:46:01,120
Speaker 1: four betting preview episode from the Action Network podcast. It's

864
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:04,800
Speaker 1: over at the Action Network podcast feed. Check it out Stucky.

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00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 1: As I mentioned the Action Network og, the host of

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00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:13,279
Speaker 1: Big Bets on campus college basketball Expert, thanks for coming

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00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 1: on the podcast. You'll be around all week on all

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00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:22,200
Speaker 1: Action Network programming, whether it's written word, podcasts, video, Find

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00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:24,840
Speaker 1: it all in the app, find it in the podcast places.

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00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 1: You're the best man's good luck in the tournament everyone.

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00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:32,919
Speaker 1: Thanks for having me, and good luck to your blue team.

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00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:34,719
Speaker 1: Simon and I'll see you in a book and job.

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00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 1: See in Hoboken Stock for Simon Hunter for Matt Mitchell.

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00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:41,359
Speaker 1: I am Chad Melman. This has been the favorites from

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Speaker 1: the Volume podcast Network. Download us from Apple, podcasts from Spotify.

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Speaker 1: not forget. Subscribe directly to the favorites. You don't do it,

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Speaker 1: you may miss us. Check it out. Subscribe every the

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Speaker 1: favorites until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you

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Speaker 1: please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about

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Speaker 1: has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to

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Speaker 1: seven at one eight hundred gambler