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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough? No running again?

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Speaker 3: So smoothe so sweet.

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Speaker 2: Stipid sixteen just glorious extrocution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that? Shop with mind? Good buddy, and

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Speaker 2: that's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements,

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Speaker 2: the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The love. It's left too the wide eyed.

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Speaker 2: Drilled fibus How old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello, everyone, Welcome back to Wondergol, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 1: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Leebuff and

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Speaker 1: joining me for this episode. Looking ahead to this weekend's

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Speaker 1: Premier League slate, European matches and beyond are Anthony Debundo

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Speaker 1: and BJ Cunningham. This week, we've got a lot to

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Speaker 1: get to. We'll start with the title race matches right

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Speaker 1: off the jump. We'll start with Arsenal. BJ will start

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Speaker 1: with your gunners, coming off a huge weekend for them

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Speaker 1: in the Premier League, at least with the United drawing Liverpool.

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Speaker 1: So Arsenal now at the top of the table, still

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Speaker 1: not the favorites to win. That belongs to City, but

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Speaker 1: it's essentially like a coin flip three way coin flip.

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Speaker 1: At this point, the Gunners are minus three fifty. They've

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Speaker 1: got the trickiest matchup according to the odds this weekend,

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Speaker 1: and that's pretty crazy. All three teams and the title

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Speaker 1: race are at home, and minus three fifty on the

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Speaker 1: three way line is the makes them the smallest favorite

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Speaker 1: among the three. They're hosting aston Villa, who are nine

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Speaker 1: to one. The draw here is plus four seventy five.

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Speaker 1: What do you think about your Gunners? Are you little

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Speaker 1: concerned after the quick turnaround in a pretty performance against

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Speaker 1: Bayern Munich in the Champions League.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you can can call it wonky if you

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Speaker 3: want to, and yeah, it wasn't Arsenal's best performance of

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Speaker 3: the year, but I wouldn't say it was terrible performance.

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Speaker 3: You know, they were still fine. They controlled the match

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Speaker 3: for a majority of it. So I'm not going to

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Speaker 3: freak out and just say, oh my gosh, the sky

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Speaker 3: is falling like du Bundo is going to do it

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Speaker 3: here in just a little bit. But yeah, I think

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Speaker 3: this is actually a pretty good match up here for Arsenal.

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Speaker 3: You know, the previous meeting was interesting because aston Villa

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Speaker 3: scored first and they just kind of sat in their

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Speaker 3: defensive block and kind of held Arsenal out. But Arsenal

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Speaker 3: created close to expected goals in that match. I expect

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Speaker 3: Arsenal to control this match as well. You know, if

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Speaker 3: phill is going to play that high line, they definitely

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Speaker 3: have the Arsenal. I know they're a slow build up

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Speaker 3: type team, but they definitely have the runners to get

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Speaker 3: in behind and cause a lot of problems for aston Villa.

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Speaker 3: So I'm generally pretty close to where the market is here,

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Speaker 3: so it's a pass for me. But yeah, with Villain

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Speaker 3: not having their best ball stopper in the middle of

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Speaker 3: the pitch, John again, we'll be back for this one

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Speaker 3: as he was for the last one. But yeah, I

59
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Speaker 3: think you know, Villa is obviously a team that's much

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Speaker 3: worse away from home than they are excuse me, They're

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Speaker 3: much better at home versus on the roads, so this

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Speaker 3: is not the best of matchups for them. But again,

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Speaker 3: I think the market's pretty closer or to where it

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Speaker 3: should be, so I'm passing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I didn't think Byron Arsenal played well

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Speaker 2: against Byron. I thought Byron exposed tradition defense weaknesses we

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Speaker 2: hadn't really seen from Arsenal much in the league. It's

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Speaker 2: now three straight performances in the Champions League where they

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Speaker 2: were not really better than their opponent over the full

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Speaker 2: ninety minutes, and that has some interesting knock on effects.

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Speaker 2: I think we could talk about that on Monday's episode

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Speaker 2: as Arsenal tries to grind their way through this Champions

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Speaker 2: League quarter against Byron. But as far as this league

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Speaker 2: matchup goes, you know, I think Arsenal has benefited from

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Speaker 2: the league being so open this year, and as a

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Speaker 2: result of that, they get a matchup against a Villa

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Speaker 2: defense that has just completely crumbled in the last months.

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Speaker 2: So since January thirtieth, specifically, Villa have allowed two point

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Speaker 2: h three x G per ninety minutes, so on average

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Speaker 2: about two point oh three two goals per match of chances,

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Speaker 2: and they've conceded at least one point five expected goals

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Speaker 2: in eleven straight and now they don't have Douglas Luiz.

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Speaker 2: And we saw even when playing like a Wolve's team

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Speaker 2: that was really shorthanded. Even when playing Lowton Town, those

85
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Speaker 2: teams were able. You know, Brentford from two nil down

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Speaker 2: last weekend, consistently create big chances in behind this defense,

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Speaker 2: and I just don't really think it's built to play

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Speaker 2: against an Arsenal team who will have the passing range

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Speaker 2: to exploit that end behind. Arsenal have given up just

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Speaker 2: nine point eight XG in their fifteen home league matches.

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Speaker 2: That's less than two thirds of a game per match

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Speaker 2: by x G. It's pretty good. Again, it hasn't translated

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Speaker 2: into Europe, which is interesting. But either way, like Villa's

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Speaker 2: defensive metrics we talked about this last week on the show,

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Speaker 2: continue to create and other than that Wolves match they

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Speaker 2: won two nil on the back of, you know, have

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Speaker 2: a couple of good finishes and and you know Wolves

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Speaker 2: being really shorthanded and Villa being at home. Other than that, like,

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Speaker 2: what have we seen from this Villa team that suggests

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Speaker 2: they can stay within a goal and a half of Arsenal.

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Speaker 2: Not a ton for me, So I'm laying it here

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Speaker 2: with Arsenal minus one and a half minus one thirty.

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Speaker 2: You know, you look at the league results for Villa.

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Speaker 2: They had the three to two win against Loughton Town

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Speaker 2: where they you know, scored late to hold on lose

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Speaker 2: four Nile Spurs one one draw with West hand they

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Speaker 2: were outplayed. The Wolves went at home very shorthanded, and

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Speaker 2: then throttled at City and scored late to ty Brentford

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Speaker 2: in a game where you know, Brentford scored three times

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Speaker 2: and a half. So it's just like, do we trust

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Speaker 2: this defense at all? I don't, so I think when

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Speaker 2: Arsenal plays teams who are good defensively that can kind

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Speaker 2: of turn it into a bit of a rock fight,

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Speaker 2: to quote Leaboff, that's when they can't start to struggle

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Speaker 2: when Villa. When Arsenal plays these poor defensive teams that

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Speaker 2: are going to allow chances, it's just the table gets

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Speaker 2: tilted so far in the other direction. And much like

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Speaker 2: I laid City against Villa, I'm gonna lay Arsenal here

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Speaker 2: minus one and a half as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I think that this one feels like a

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Speaker 1: game you just want to play into Arsenal scoring and

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Speaker 1: getting margins. So I don't see any problem there. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk about City and Luton next Cities laying minus thousand

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Speaker 1: Luton Town plus eighteen hundred, and the draw here is

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Speaker 1: ten to one. We've had this discussion worth bringing up again,

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Speaker 1: it's crazy that these odds are as short as they

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Speaker 1: are on these teams against the title contenders. Still like

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Speaker 1: we keep bringing up the Brentford example. Brentford was a

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Speaker 1: longer was a bigger underdog than this Luton Town team

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Speaker 1: against City when we back them right before the World

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Speaker 1: Cup as part of our two hundred and one underdog

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Speaker 1: parlay that we pat ourselves on the back for hitting

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Speaker 1: once an episode. It's required by the sponsors, so we

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Speaker 1: still do it. But I do think it's an important

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Speaker 1: point to bring up, Like why isn't Lutontown twenty five

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Speaker 1: to one here? It's frustrating, but a nothing for me here.

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Speaker 1: I think that you can if you wanted to bet,

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Speaker 1: like City to score four plus whatever, you can. I

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Speaker 1: know Lowtontown has been a little bit better defensively the

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Speaker 1: past couple of games, But I mean, I don't see

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Speaker 1: anything kind of nefarious going on with this game. So

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Speaker 1: either pass or just City offs for me here, BJ.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like Lutontown to score here. It is fun.

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Speaker 3: And you know what else is fun is this Lutontown offense? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Their defense sucks y, Yeah, they could give up five, six, seven,

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Speaker 3: goals in this match, but they have only gone scoreless

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Speaker 3: in five Fromier League matches this season, and four of

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Speaker 3: them were before the middle of November, so the Arsenal

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Speaker 3: match is really the only match where they have gone

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Speaker 3: scoreless essentially over the last three or four months, and

151
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Speaker 3: even since the beginning of February, they're averaging one point

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Speaker 3: six expectacles p ninety minutes. And I want to talk

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Speaker 3: about City's defense for a little bit, because I think

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Speaker 3: that they're bad quite frankly, compared to what they think

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Speaker 3: people think they are. What happened against Real Madrid, and

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Speaker 3: is what's been happening a lot with Manchester City is

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Speaker 3: that since there's no longer a guy like Gundagan there

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Speaker 3: who is a box crashing midfielder, Rodri has had to

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Speaker 3: have that role and when teams play low defensive blocks

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Speaker 3: on them, they pushed those midfielders up farther and farther

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Speaker 3: up the pitch. So when they lose the ball oftentimes

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Speaker 3: what happens is they get into three v three situations.

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Speaker 3: And I can't remember who put it on Twitter, but

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Speaker 3: you know, yes, Real Madrid has their flaws, but if

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Speaker 3: you're getting a three v three transition break against Venetius

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Speaker 3: Junior Rodrigo and Bellingham, you're screwed. I know looton Town

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Speaker 3: doesn't have those guys, but they've played Manchester City in

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Speaker 3: the FA Cup on February twenty seventh, and yeah, Early

169
00:08:57,520 --> 00:08:59,920
Speaker 3: Holland scored five goals and Kevin de Bruyna had seven

170
00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,680
Speaker 3: billion assists in that match. But you know what else happened.

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Speaker 3: Lootontown created two and a half expected goals, had nine

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00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:09,040
Speaker 3: shots inside Cities penalty area. And what's been happening with

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Speaker 3: City is they just get beat time and time and transition.

174
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Speaker 3: Because again they're going three B three and they're not

175
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Speaker 3: aveny good at coounter pressing as they have been in

176
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Speaker 3: years past, so we can go through all those stats.

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Speaker 3: But they've been very average in that so and also

178
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Speaker 3: City's been pretty average at defending set pieces. So I

179
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Speaker 3: think Loutontown definitely has a path to score here. They

180
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Speaker 3: did it in the previous meeting. I mean two and

181
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Speaker 3: a half expected goals is not nothing. I don't care

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Speaker 3: if this match is out of play. I think they're

183
00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:33,360
Speaker 3: definitely lied to score here and I don't think they

184
00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:34,880
Speaker 3: should be a plus money, So I like them to

185
00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:36,760
Speaker 3: score at plus one oh five. And for those asking,

186
00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:38,200
Speaker 3: it's like, why don't you just take both teams to score,

187
00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:39,800
Speaker 3: which is at you know, plus one ten plus one

188
00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:42,920
Speaker 3: oh five. I know Lootontown's defense has been bad, but

189
00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:45,200
Speaker 3: I generally think there's better than a two percent chance

190
00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:49,720
Speaker 3: or excuse me, I generally think that there is greater

191
00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:51,679
Speaker 3: than a two percent chance that City doesn't score here.

192
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Speaker 3: So I'd rather just take Lootontown to score at plus

193
00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:54,240
Speaker 3: one o five.

194
00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:56,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think this is a good second

195
00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:59,640
Speaker 2: half Underlook, you know, kind of see how the game's

196
00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:02,199
Speaker 2: going look to play a live under because we saw

197
00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:05,120
Speaker 2: this with Arsenal who played a very rotated team. To

198
00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:07,680
Speaker 2: be Jay's point, that was the first match in only

199
00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:10,440
Speaker 2: match in twenty the Lowton hadn't scored was that Arsenal

200
00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:13,600
Speaker 2: away match and they created next to nothing in that match.

201
00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:15,120
Speaker 2: And I think they'll get a little more against City.

202
00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:17,199
Speaker 2: But the question is just like cities in senate to

203
00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:19,480
Speaker 2: run it up. But I know we're having goal difference

204
00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:22,880
Speaker 2: conversations now because it is just one point separates Arsenal

205
00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:25,679
Speaker 2: City in Liverpool and City has the worst of the

206
00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:30,280
Speaker 2: goal different situation. But this match in the middle of

207
00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:33,840
Speaker 2: this real Madrid tie, probably not where City is gonna

208
00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:35,560
Speaker 2: look to run it up, especially with deb Bruna missing

209
00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:39,120
Speaker 2: the Wednesday match with his illness, Holland playing a ton

210
00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:41,440
Speaker 2: of minutes. In the last week we saw a City

211
00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:45,000
Speaker 2: not even play Holland against Villa. They're trying to manage

212
00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:46,520
Speaker 2: his minutes, and so this is a match to me

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Speaker 2: where like, if City gets up, you know, two nil

214
00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:53,240
Speaker 2: first half, they're just gonna shut it down and keep

215
00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:56,839
Speaker 2: the ball as best as possible. You know, once they're

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Speaker 2: up two goals, I think this game dies. So I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna to wait for that moment to lie about the

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Speaker 2: under and think that you know, City just kind of

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Speaker 2: gets in, gets out, gets their win, moves on here.

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Speaker 2: It's funny because the way that the schedule lines up,

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of weekends where City, Villa, City Arsenal,

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Speaker 2: Liverpool all at home or all on the road. So

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Speaker 2: last week and we saw like City go down to Palace,

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Speaker 2: we saw Liverpool you know, play that chaotic thriller with

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Speaker 2: United away from home. This feels like a routine hold

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Speaker 2: serve weekend for all three and then next weekend I

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Speaker 2: believe all three are on the road again, So things

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Speaker 2: get more interesting as we kind of go through the

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Speaker 2: ebbs and flows of the next six weeks, looking at

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Speaker 2: the schedule and like who's going to have the edge

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Speaker 2: here for the final? You know, seven six matches. One

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Speaker 2: more note just too on Villa Luton or Villa Arsenal.

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Speaker 2: You know, we talk about it being in the middle

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Speaker 2: of a cup tie for Arsenal, but Villa's got Leel

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Speaker 2: on Thursday and they're on a shorter turnaround and on

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Speaker 2: the road, so you know, Villa has to play Thursday Sunday.

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Speaker 2: Arsenal place Tuesday Sunday. It's a pretty big advantage for

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Speaker 2: Arsenal in terms of rest and depth too.

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Speaker 1: So hereg and Klopp will certainly be writing to the

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Speaker 1: Premier League offices about that. Not fair speak, it's not fair.

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Speaker 3: It's not fair Michael that they couldn't finish off fair

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Speaker 3: last year. It's just not fair.

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Speaker 1: Liverpool up next. They are minus four fifty at hosting

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Speaker 1: Crystal Palace, who are ten to one. The draw here

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Speaker 1: is six to one. I do like Palace in one

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Speaker 1: way or another. Here I know that it's not been

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Speaker 1: particularly encouraging under new manager Oliver Gloschner. But I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I'm not too fussed about a four to defeat the

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Speaker 1: City in a match that handicapped pretty terribly. I thought

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Speaker 1: that that was going to be a you know, bet

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Speaker 1: the under one and a half our city to win

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Speaker 1: one nil for many of the same reasons that Anthony

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Speaker 1: was just talking about in the City Lootontown match. But

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Speaker 1: I do you think that Palace can frustrate Liverpool here enough?

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Speaker 1: And I'm going to zero in on a Liverpool trend

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Speaker 1: that has been apparent for the whole year here, which

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Speaker 1: is that they they're like just an absolute dynamite second

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Speaker 1: half team. We talked about this a little bit before

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Speaker 1: their match with Sheffield United on over the midweek. So

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Speaker 1: I like Palace on the first half money line at

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Speaker 1: seven to one, or you can play Palace, you know,

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Speaker 1: score first if you want. Sheffield United should have been

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Speaker 1: up one nill in that game. We talked about betting

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Speaker 1: Sheffield to score first or to bet Liverpool to win

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Speaker 1: from behind, and thirty seconds in Sheffield United had a

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Speaker 1: Grade A plus plus chance to go ahead, and then

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Speaker 1: right off the ensuing corner after that one didn't go in,

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Speaker 1: they had another good look so a little bit unlucky there,

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Speaker 1: and that's just something we've seen out of Liverpool a

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Speaker 1: bit this season. Over the first half this entire season,

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Speaker 1: they've won eleven of the first halfs, but that means

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Speaker 1: that you know, in they played thirty one matches, so

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Speaker 1: they're either drawing or losing more often than not. At halftime.

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Speaker 1: Five times they have gone into the break behind. Their

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Speaker 1: goal differential is only plus nine, which is still good,

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Speaker 1: but compared to Arsenal and City or even Villa, it's

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Speaker 1: not even close to the top of the league. So

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I think Palace has a has a

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Speaker 1: decent chance to do what a bunch of teams are

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Speaker 1: and you know, give Liverpool a little bit of like

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Speaker 1: a slap in the face right up r out of

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Speaker 1: the gates. So I'm going to play that. That's it's

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Speaker 1: seven to one the first half money line on Palace.

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Speaker 1: Another team that that's been a bogie team for quite

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Speaker 1: a bit of these title contenders over the years, so

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Speaker 1: why not lean into that here, Anthony.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, you know my rule about anfield that I'm

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Speaker 2: holding for at least another couple of weeks, so I'm

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Speaker 2: not going to break that for this Palace team. You know,

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Speaker 2: a couple of nice counters for them, you know, like

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Speaker 2: a perfectly well functioning uh one to two combination that

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Speaker 2: got Mateta in behind for the first goal. Second goal,

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Speaker 2: I mean it was for to one. The game was

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Speaker 2: long decided. The definition of a consolation goal. If you

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Speaker 2: want to look at you know, Palace to score here.

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Speaker 2: I do think they're certainly live to do it. But

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Speaker 2: there's nothing for me in this Palace team that suggests

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Speaker 2: that they can withstand the pressure they're going to be

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Speaker 2: under constantly at anfield in this match. And you know,

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Speaker 2: there's been a lot of hand ring about Liverpool missing

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Speaker 2: a lot of chances, and they have the last few

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Speaker 2: weeks like they've run pretty cold in terms of finishing

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Speaker 2: versus chances. Even the Sheffield match there was a couple

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Speaker 2: of late moments where they could have got you know,

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Speaker 2: an extra goal, even got a fifth you know kind

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Speaker 2: of thing. So I don't really want to, you know,

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Speaker 2: go into the fire here with Liverpool. Liverpool is the

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Speaker 2: team that has the easiest of the Champions League slash

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Speaker 2: Europa League, but it is still a match on Thursday

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Speaker 2: against Atalanta, and I think how much they're willing to

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Speaker 2: run it up will be dependent upon how that first

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Speaker 2: light goes. So all so in a bit of a

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Speaker 2: period where I want to kind of wait and see

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Speaker 2: what are we going to see from Liverpool on Thursday

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Speaker 2: gets out of onto how aggressive does Clop go in

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Speaker 2: that competition, and what might the team look like on Sunday,

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Speaker 2: Because it is notable that Diego Jota and Trent Alexander

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Speaker 2: Arnold both return to training this week, so I doubt

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Speaker 2: they play, you know, start on Sunday, but it's certainly

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Speaker 2: not out of the realm of possibility. But most importantly,

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Speaker 2: like it gives them minutes to the point where let's say,

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Speaker 2: you know, Liverpool is up a goal or even two,

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Speaker 2: and they want to try to get ready for the

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Speaker 2: weekend or get ready for the mid week and kind

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Speaker 2: of rest you know, Sala Nunez who played a lot

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Speaker 2: of minutes lately, instead of going to like not as

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Speaker 2: good players, they're going to bring on Jotta and Trent.

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Speaker 2: That's a big, big difference between that and you know,

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Speaker 2: bring on even a Cody Gakpo off the bench, just

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Speaker 2: in the quality of minutesure getting and then the attacking

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Speaker 2: firepower that Trent has on his foot at all times,

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Speaker 2: and Jota has been really efficient as a goal scorer

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Speaker 2: anytime he's played for Liverpool. So I just think that,

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Speaker 2: you know, with Liverpool having a chance to catch Arsenal

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Speaker 2: and goal difference and put a debt in it here

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Speaker 2: and then bringing in quality players off the bench, it's

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Speaker 2: not a spot where I want to backpass.

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Speaker 1: So that's the title race those three matches, just a

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Speaker 1: quick big picture review. Arsenal is ahead of Liverpool on

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Speaker 1: goal difference right now by nine goals. They're both at

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Speaker 1: seventy one points. City is on seventy two goals behind

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Speaker 1: Liverpool and eleven behind Arsenal going into match peak thirty

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Speaker 1: two for all of them. All right, onto the rest

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Speaker 1: of the board. We'll do Newcastle at home hosting Spurs next.

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Speaker 1: The mag piss plus one seventy, Spurs traveling at plus

346
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Speaker 1: one thirty and the draw here is three to one.

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Speaker 1: This one, I feel like will end up starting as

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Speaker 1: one game and devolving into something else entirely as it

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Speaker 1: moves on. I feel like both of these teams have

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Speaker 1: a tendency to engage in those kind of kind of matches.

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Speaker 1: So what do you think here, Anthony Spurs and Newcastle

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Speaker 1: in a I think a pretty tricky contest for Spurs

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Speaker 1: as they look to hold on to that force spot

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Speaker 1: in the Premier League.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean with Arsenal and City not being totally assured.

356
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Speaker 2: You know, if both were to lose in the Champions League,

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Speaker 2: then all of a sudden, especially with you know, Byron

358
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Speaker 2: beating Arsenal and then potentially Levercus and beating west Ham,

359
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Speaker 2: and then you could see Dortman go through. It wouldn't

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Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think they're going to, but they

361
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Speaker 2: could all of a sudden, that place, that fifth place

362
00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:39,119
Speaker 2: becomes a little more you know, teetering right now, because

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Speaker 2: it's very clearly a two team race for fourth and fifth,

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Speaker 2: with west Ham and United not having really much of

365
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Speaker 2: a chance to catch either. And so you know Spurs

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Speaker 2: and Villa are kind of in a comfy spot here.

367
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Speaker 2: But Newcastle you're starting to finally see the defense take

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Speaker 2: a step forward again, like they couldn't have been as

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Speaker 2: bad as they were, and they have gotten a little healthier.

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Speaker 2: They've been playing fewer matches now. I think they've come

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Speaker 2: out of the malaise they were in for three straight

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Speaker 2: months where they couldn't stop anything. They weren't particularly good

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Speaker 2: against Fulham, but they did hold Fulham to about one

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Speaker 2: expected goal, which has been an improvement. If you look

375
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Speaker 2: just across the board at their defensive metrics now since

376
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Speaker 2: February first, they had that period remember from you know,

377
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Speaker 2: December through really February into March, where they were giving

378
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,960
Speaker 2: up over two x g per match. Now it's back

379
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:30,560
Speaker 2: down around one point five. So it's obviously nowhere near

380
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Speaker 2: the level they were last year. I don't think they'll

381
00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:34,440
Speaker 2: ever get to that level with the current personnel, but

382
00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:37,920
Speaker 2: it has improved and you know, Joe Willock being back

383
00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,920
Speaker 2: has helped them defensively in the midfield. Even with Joe

384
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Speaker 2: Linton going out like, they haven't been as vulnerable to

385
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Speaker 2: the transitions. And also it's just it's just it's a

386
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Speaker 2: way of playing where yeah, we're vulnerable on the break.

387
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Speaker 2: If you hit a bunch of high quality looks on

388
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Speaker 2: us and you string together a ton of passes, you

389
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 2: can break us open easily. But naturally that style of

390
00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:04,560
Speaker 2: defending is going to leave you at the mercy of like,

391
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Speaker 2: oh what if that team just isn't at it that

392
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:09,159
Speaker 2: day and doesn't put together that really big chance, like

393
00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 2: you were vulnerable to give it up, but they didn't

394
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Speaker 2: take it kind of thing, and I think we've seen

395
00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:16,400
Speaker 2: a little bit of that with Newcastle as well. That's

396
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Speaker 2: helped their defense.

397
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Speaker 3: Now.

398
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Speaker 2: Willick did pick up an injury, of course, and he

399
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 2: is doubtful after the picking it up last week, so

400
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:28,520
Speaker 2: he is in doubt here. Trippier is still not going

401
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:30,200
Speaker 2: to be back yet, so they are still dealing with

402
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:34,959
Speaker 2: some injuries. But it's clear that the attack remains one

403
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,200
Speaker 2: of the best, and facing this Tottham defense at home

404
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:41,120
Speaker 2: as a true underdog now with the line moving towards

405
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,439
Speaker 2: Spurs in the last couple of days, I don't really agree.

406
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 2: I have this as a dead pick them. I make

407
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 2: Newcastle minus one oh one on the drawing no bet line,

408
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,399
Speaker 2: so I took some plus one oh five. There's just

409
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:55,160
Speaker 2: going to be some plus one tens in the market.

410
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:57,880
Speaker 2: I'd imagine. I'm good with that. I just don't really

411
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 2: trust Tottenham's defense away from home because even against Forest

412
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:03,879
Speaker 2: last week at home, you know, Forrest got over one

413
00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,800
Speaker 2: and a half XG would miss that big header just

414
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 2: off the corner of the post to make that two

415
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 2: to one. Forest in a game that you know, Tottenham

416
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:15,400
Speaker 2: gets a screamer from Van Deven, but it didn't feel

417
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,920
Speaker 2: like they you know, deserve that cover and they ran.

418
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,240
Speaker 2: You know, of course it's classic Tottenham, but they you know,

419
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 2: created one point seven xg to give up one point

420
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 2: six one three one. Good for them. They move on

421
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 2: top five is pretty safe now, but they still have

422
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,639
Speaker 2: flaws and I think Newcastle is starting to trend up

423
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:37,920
Speaker 2: and be a real by Low here given that their

424
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:41,159
Speaker 2: form has turned. The attacks remained great and the defense

425
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 2: just isn't quite as leaky as it was.

426
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, you know, the Newcastle's defense is obviously

427
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,399
Speaker 3: improved a little bit, but they are stealing dealing with

428
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:52,880
Speaker 3: a lot of injuries Bobman being out as Sales being

429
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 3: out for a long period of time like you mentioned Tripier.

430
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Speaker 3: So instead I'm gonna I like Newcastle's team total over

431
00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:02,480
Speaker 3: one and a half ut minus one twenty since the

432
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 3: matching at staston Villa where they changed how they're playing

433
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 3: when they went more aggressive, when they started bandmarking instead

434
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,719
Speaker 3: of doing their normal high red pressing and having their

435
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,560
Speaker 3: midfielders covered a lot of ground. Their averaged one point

436
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 3: nine expected goals for ninety minutes, and a lot of

437
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 3: that has to do not only with the structure playing

438
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:22,119
Speaker 3: more aggressive, but e Shach being healthy, Harvey Barnes getting

439
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 3: back in the lineup, Anthony Gordon still being there. I'd

440
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,400
Speaker 3: assume you'd see a front three of Anthony Gordon, Shoch

441
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 3: and Barnes, which are three fantastic goal scoring options. Whereas

442
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:33,959
Speaker 3: previously yes, Anthony Gordon started on the left that al

443
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:35,879
Speaker 3: Maron is much better as a ball carrier and a

444
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:39,640
Speaker 3: creator than actual goal scoring threat. So those three guys,

445
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,399
Speaker 3: especially in a match that's probably going to be very

446
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:44,880
Speaker 3: transitional with Newcastle looking to play on the break here.

447
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 3: I mean we say it all the time with Tottenham,

448
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 3: but like Van Deven and Viccario, shot stopping is the

449
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 3: only thing that holds them up from just getting ripped

450
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:57,320
Speaker 3: apart transitionally, right because they play so aggressively, because they

451
00:22:57,359 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 3: play that high line. I know both of them are

452
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,119
Speaker 3: there available, but this is still a really good attack

453
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 3: that you have to deal with. And one more thing

454
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,879
Speaker 3: is that Newcastle, you know, obviously since they haven't you know,

455
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 3: maybe had the offensive prowess that they had last year,

456
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 3: they're still a really, really good set piece team. Eleven

457
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 3: goals of a set pieces top five the next cheaper

458
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:19,200
Speaker 3: set piece. That is an area where Tottenham has struggled

459
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 3: a little bit this season. So I don't really want

460
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,159
Speaker 3: to be part of this Newcastle defense. I know they

461
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 3: have improved, but with all those injuries, I would just

462
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 3: rather back their team total over one and a half

463
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 3: at twenty.

464
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 2: Yeah. So they move Burn in at center back and

465
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 2: I just kind of think he's better than the Cells. Like,

466
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 2: I know, he's not naturally a center back and they

467
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:40,400
Speaker 2: were playing La Cells there, but I kind of think

468
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 2: Burn's just better. And you know, they put Lewis Hall

469
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 2: the youngster in at left back and he looked pretty

470
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 2: solid because now you have Trippier and Libermento out. You know,

471
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 2: the one angle I think where Toddenham has a clear

472
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 2: edge is going to be Werner against Mlcraft, the right

473
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 2: right back they've been playing there. So you know, I

474
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 2: think Spurs will still proba scoring this match. But for me,

475
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:04,680
Speaker 2: you know, they're they're a favorite on the road, and

476
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 2: I have this as true Cooin flip. Even if you say, hey,

477
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 2: like let's just take the whole season and not try

478
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:12,040
Speaker 2: to be like narrative y and get into the details.

479
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 2: Over the course of the entire season, the two teams

480
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 2: have very comparable underlying numbers. It's just that Spurs have

481
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 2: conceded seven fewer goals because of their goalie. They've scored

482
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,120
Speaker 2: the same number of goals. Basically, they've had the same

483
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,120
Speaker 2: amount of XG within you know, a goal or two.

484
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 2: So where's been the true difference in these two teams.

485
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 2: Spurs have run better in close games with like late stuff,

486
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,719
Speaker 2: and Tottenham has better goalie. But now they're on the rea.

487
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 3: As I say, Verner, anytime goal scorer.

488
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 2: Vernon has scored or assist minus one oh five.

489
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 3: No, not great.

490
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:54,640
Speaker 1: Okay, let's talk about Brentford and Sheffield United relegation six pointer. Here,

491
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 1: Sheffield United is trying to get off the foot of

492
00:24:58,600 --> 00:24:59,919
Speaker 1: the table. Out of the foot of the table. I mean,

493
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 1: we know that they're down, but regardless, I'm still selling

494
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:07,200
Speaker 1: it as a relegation, as a relegation six pointer. With

495
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 1: Brentford on twenty nine points only four head of Lowtontown

496
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 1: Sheffield United on sixteen, propping up the entire thing. Brentford's

497
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 1: at home here their minds two twenty five and Sheffield

498
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 1: United is traveling at six to one draws plus three fifty.

499
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 1: I actually don't mind Sheffield United BJ. I know you're

500
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: gonna go the other way here, but I think that

501
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 1: there have been just marginal improvements from this team under

502
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 1: Chris Wilder. And it's not just because they're getting the results.

503
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 1: If the underlying numbers are getting better, they actually have

504
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 1: some players up top who can finish. I think that

505
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 1: the back line has like at least some competent what

506
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 1: would you I guess you'd call them like quadruple players

507
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 1: in baseball terms, like guys who can who are like

508
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: champion kind of like quasi championship Premier League caliber players

509
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 1: top of the championship and the bottom of the Premier

510
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 1: League caliber players like Mason Holgate is on Field United

511
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:02,119
Speaker 1: in the backline, like, these guys can at least do

512
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:08,239
Speaker 1: a job. And I don't trust Brentford at this kind

513
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 1: of price, even at home, with the way that there's

514
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 1: season's going. I know that the underlying metrics have suggested

515
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 1: all season they should be better than this, but as

516
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 1: we've talked about a little bit, they've they've gotten worse.

517
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 1: So I think that we're looking at a situation where

518
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:27,919
Speaker 1: there's some value on the blades to at least make

519
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 1: a go of things here. And it's definitely not a

520
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 1: situation where it wont to light with Brentford. But you're

521
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:35,199
Speaker 1: gonna go the other way here.

522
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:39,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just you know, even if we're just looking

523
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 3: at pure underlying numbers for the entire season, Bringford has

524
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 3: always been through many times unlucky they've been. And again, yeah,

525
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:49,360
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna lie Branford minus morning fear. I think

526
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,639
Speaker 3: that's a crazy thing to do. But parlaying them with

527
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 3: another big favorite, someone like Arsenal can get you too

528
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 3: about minus one twenty And if you look at how this,

529
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 3: you know Sheffield United very interesting performance against Chelsea and

530
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,160
Speaker 3: then obviously against Liverpool as well. Like you said, yes,

531
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 3: they have been improving, but with the amount of attackers

532
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 3: that Brentford have, just with the basically where Sheffield has

533
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 3: struggled in every single area from defending set pieces, defending

534
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,920
Speaker 3: crosses to all the things that Brentford really does well

535
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 3: unless they sit in a low block and try to

536
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 3: keep Brentford out for a full ninety minutes. I generally

537
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:29,160
Speaker 3: think Brentford actually is undervalued. I actually producted Brentford coaster

538
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 3: minus two seventy just because of you know, the underlying numbers.

539
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 3: I mean, Brentford's you know, just hair under negative expectable

540
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 3: toffrontal for the season and Sheffield is one of the worst.

541
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:43,160
Speaker 3: So I know there have been improvements, but and it's

542
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 3: not you know, particularly the best spot, but with how

543
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,919
Speaker 3: bad and vulnerable the Sheffield's defense has been, I mean,

544
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 3: trying to builo on Brentford, I think is always a

545
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:55,680
Speaker 3: good thing to do, and I think parlaying them with

546
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 3: someone like Arsenal, I think it's has decent value.

547
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 2: I'm gonna I'm gonna under three for a long time

548
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 2: and I'm gonna think about it. You know, Sheffield defensively

549
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:10,920
Speaker 2: have had so many of these like embarrassing performances that

550
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 2: it's hard to trust them to do much of anything,

551
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,920
Speaker 2: especially with how bad they've been on set piece defense.

552
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:20,199
Speaker 2: It's been a really alarming trend, especially going up against Brentford,

553
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 2: who's consistently elite there. But this total is like pretty

554
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 2: close to three two five And I don't project value

555
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 2: in it from a numbers perspective, but I think from

556
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 2: a stylistic matchup, I can just see Sheffield United coming

557
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 2: in parking the bus making life difficult for Brentford to

558
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 2: fine space, and then it just kind of gets into

559
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 2: like an ugly matchup, and we have seen this from

560
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 2: Brentford in the past. Now they handled Luton in a

561
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,719
Speaker 2: similar spot, but again Luton's more aggressive than I think

562
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 2: Sheffield will be in this matchup. But then again there's

563
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 2: also the thing of like, if you're Sheffield, like a

564
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 2: draw is not really good enough, Like you're trying to

565
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 2: pull You're trying to pull Brentford down into this mess

566
00:28:57,080 --> 00:29:00,959
Speaker 2: and you're sitting there nine points from safety. I mean,

567
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 2: is a draw good I don't even know, So that's

568
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 2: the only thing that scares me about it. But certainly

569
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 2: three point twenty five is too high, So that for

570
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 2: me would be the play if anything.

571
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 1: On to Burnley and Brighton. I've got nothing here at

572
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 1: Burnley's plus two forty. Brighton is even money. The draw

573
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 1: is sitting at a price at plus two to eighty

574
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five. Antony, you're the only one

575
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:28,479
Speaker 1: with anything here. What do you got?

576
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 2: Brighton? Brentford under three going to continue the trend of

577
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 2: the Brighton unders. They continue to be very feeble in

578
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 2: attack right now, and if you look at Burnley's numbers

579
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 2: first half of the season, they're pass per defensive action

580
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 2: versus the second half of the season. It's been a

581
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 2: noticeable difference in how much they're pressing. And as a

582
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 2: result of their lower pressing numbers, I just think there's

583
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 2: going to be very little space for Brighton operating on

584
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 2: the road to get margin here and whatnot. So I

585
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 2: think as a result of that, Burnley less confrontations in

586
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 2: the opposition half as a defense, less possession in their

587
00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 2: own half as like a per game basis, like amount

588
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 2: of touches they have in their own half is down,

589
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 2: So they're doing less of the playing out from the

590
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 2: back because if you try that against Brighton, you introduce

591
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 2: a lot of they just have more technically gifted players

592
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 2: and they're going to pick you off. And then when

593
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 2: Brighton gets the high turnovers, they're still a very functioning attack.

594
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 2: But without them. We have just constantly seen this Brighton

595
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 2: team now, even not even just the Arsenal match last week,

596
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 2: but prior to that, against Forrest, against Brentford, against these

597
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 2: teams who are gonna sit a little bit deeper and

598
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 2: brings you know, allow pressure, allow ball possession in their

599
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 2: own half. You're just not going to see Brighton break

600
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 2: them down at the same level that we have in

601
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:46,320
Speaker 2: the past. And I think it really just comes down to,

602
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 2: you know, who's not playing and who's not available for

603
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 2: Brighton and just how that's kind of taking its toll.

604
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 2: And they haven't had the same eleven I think enough

605
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 2: this year. They've kind of over rotated, slash, over extended

606
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 2: themselves because of injury, and we're seeing a Brighton team

607
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 2: now that has been fourteenth and actually created since February first,

608
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 2: So you just look at like the last two months,

609
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 2: it's been pretty mediocre from them going forward. And then

610
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 2: we talked about their defense, which I thought played pretty

611
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 2: well against Arsenal overall, Like the penalty was kind of soft,

612
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 2: but as a whole, I didn't think Arsenal created a

613
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 2: ton of huge chances until after Brighton really had to

614
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 2: start opening it up in like the last twenty five minutes,

615
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 2: and you saw Arsenal get a couple of chances on

616
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 2: the break there, but the first like forty five to me,

617
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 2: didn't feel like Arsenal had much And I think that's

618
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 2: a testament to just how Brighton's improved defensively and as

619
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 2: a result, three is high. I think they this game

620
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 2: has it just screams one one to me. But you know,

621
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 2: the teams that have ambushed Brighton and had success and

622
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 2: beat them when Brighton's been away from home profiled very

623
00:31:55,840 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 2: differently statistically than this current version of Burnley. They've profiled

624
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 2: much close to Cerently. Now profile is much closer to

625
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 2: Forrest and Brentford teams who just kind of sat off

626
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 2: and held bright under one xg or right around one.

627
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 2: And I do think Brighton scores and three flat three

628
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 2: is high. So I like the under, okay, under a

629
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 2: little bit, just a little. The last fifteen minutes of

630
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 2: every ten AM slate though, just chaos. Like sometimes I

631
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 2: don't even have to watch the games. I'll just pull

632
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 2: up the flash score for the last fifteen minutes and

633
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 2: then just see the board light up goal, goal, goal chance,

634
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 2: and then I get the goal. I'll have the goal

635
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 2: zone on, so I like, wait a couple of minutes

636
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 2: and I see the goals. Because it's just like there's

637
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 2: so much happening in all of the games at once.

638
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 2: Even the games last week that were like nil nil

639
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 2: at half, like Newcastle Fulham, there was a goal of

640
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 2: ar and two posts in the last fifteen minutes. The

641
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 2: Lowton Bournemouth game had two goals in the last ten minutes.

642
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 2: I'm trying to think of who else played, but there

643
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 2: was a ton of just crazy back and forth that

644
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 2: happens in like the last ten minutes of every game.

645
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 2: Now it's kind of exciting. Nobody can kill off a

646
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 2: game anymore, so the lost art.

647
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to Forests and Wolves next. But

648
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 1: before we do that, a reminder that wonder goal is

649
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,080
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650
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652
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655
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,040
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656
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,800
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657
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:31,600
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658
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 1: You must be twenty one or older and president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

659
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina or eighteen and older

660
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 1: in Kentucky. If you or anyone you know have a

661
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 1: gambling problem, please call Wenny hundred gambler or winning one

662
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditions and restrictions apply,

663
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 1: okay onto Forest and Wolves. Here, Forrest is a home

664
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 1: favorite plus one fifteen on the three way line, Wolve's

665
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 1: coming back plus two forty and the draw also at

666
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 1: plus two forty. Been a you know, kind of a

667
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 1: lull here for Wolves over the past couple of weeks

668
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 1: after really just impressive first half of the season, coming

669
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 1: off of a two to one lost to west Ham

670
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 1: before that, a draw one one draw to Burnley and

671
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 1: a two nil defeat to Villa. Meanwhile, Force, I think

672
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:23,239
Speaker 1: are still on the right path here. I know that

673
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 1: they're dealing with four point deduction, putting them at the

674
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 1: in a precarious position, but I think we can all

675
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 1: be we're all in agreement here that Forrests are trending

676
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 1: up right like Anthony's. Is this price still playable for

677
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 1: the tricky Trees?

678
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 2: So not anymore? I mean this open plus one forty,

679
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:45,799
Speaker 2: and I liked it, but now it's way down at

680
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 2: plus one twenty it doesn't seem like a huge difference,

681
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:51,279
Speaker 2: but it's like five percent. It doesn't matter. So I'm

682
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 2: now in line with the market. I have Forrest rated

683
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:58,280
Speaker 2: right about even with the current version of Wolves throwing

684
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 2: home field, I have them right around plus one fifteen.

685
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 2: So if it gets back up to like plus one thirty,

686
00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:07,440
Speaker 2: I'll hop in. But we're down at like plus one twenty.

687
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 2: Best number available consensus market is like one fifteen, So

688
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:12,879
Speaker 2: no value in the number for me anymore. But yeah,

689
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 2: I mean this Wolves team, we talked about it, like,

690
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 2: you know, they had a really good run of transition

691
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 2: attacks leading to goals for a while when they had

692
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 2: their best guys available. And they are not rushing Kunya back.

693
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 2: Credit to Gary O'Neil for not rushing players back because

694
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 2: he knows the reality if you do that, they're more

695
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:31,399
Speaker 2: likely to just get hurt again and miss more time.

696
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:34,439
Speaker 2: And Wolves are in a very safe position in terms

697
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 2: of like league form, like they're not like getting relegated,

698
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 2: you know, so it's not worth rushing guys back. And

699
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 2: so Kunya may playing now it's been another week since

700
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 2: he was held out last week, but you know Neto

701
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 2: and Huang nope, So you know, their defense is pretty

702
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 2: mediocre and now they don't have the the attacking quality

703
00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 2: to make up for it. Yeah, Phang is list. It

704
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 2: is fifty to fifty here. Maybe another five to go

705
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:07,759
Speaker 2: is set on March sixteenth, so maybe this weekend, but

706
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 2: it doesn't sound like it based on the reports, so

707
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:12,880
Speaker 2: probably another week for Haang and Neto's till May.

708
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:16,960
Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't think there's a bad look at

709
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 1: the draw either. I don't, you know, just the way

710
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 1: Forest games have been going, and like you said, the

711
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 1: Wolves attack not being one that you think would be

712
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:28,879
Speaker 1: able to get, you know, put two or three past

713
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:33,399
Speaker 1: any defense right now. So we've seen a few tight

714
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 1: matches from from Forrest before the back to back three ones,

715
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 1: the one win against Fulham and then the defeat to Spurs.

716
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,400
Speaker 1: But that's probably where I'd be leaning PJ. But not

717
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:46,240
Speaker 1: all that interested.

718
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:51,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm kind of in the same vein. I merely

719
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 3: not just don't go under and this one will probably

720
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,360
Speaker 3: lose in the ninety seventh minim of the penalty, But

721
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:57,360
Speaker 3: I do like under two and ff goals, which is

722
00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 3: that plus money right now? Like Anthony mentioned, Wang fifty

723
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 3: fifty coming back most likely won't play, maybe on the

724
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 3: bench so around there. But even if Kunya plays, the

725
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:10,239
Speaker 3: problem is like who's beeeding in the ball? Right? Because

726
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 3: Nato playing were those guys that were actually feeding them

727
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:17,320
Speaker 3: into the penalty area. And Surabia has been good because

728
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,239
Speaker 3: of in terms of actually getting the ball in the

729
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:22,319
Speaker 3: penalty area because of all the absences of everybody else.

730
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 3: But if that's your only guy and then after that

731
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 3: it's Tomato, you know you're relying on essentially only playing

732
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 3: in transition against a team that may just handle the

733
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 3: ball like this might be a since I know not

734
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:37,120
Speaker 3: e enforces at home, but there might be a case

735
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 3: where not even forces your wolves you can have the

736
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:40,239
Speaker 3: ball like to try to break us down and will

737
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 3: be the ones to play in transition. So you know,

738
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 3: the previous meeting between these two was right before Steve

739
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 3: Cooper got fired, and it was a pretty dead game.

740
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:51,080
Speaker 3: There were two huge chances which kind of inflated the

741
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:53,920
Speaker 3: x G up to about two and a half, but

742
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 3: other than that, there really weren't any high quality chances.

743
00:37:56,600 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 3: So I only projecting. I'm projecting about two point three

744
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 3: goals for this. You know, generally when you have two

745
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 3: teams that like to play in transition. Somebody's got a

746
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 3: hold of the majority of the possession and somebody's going

747
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 3: to try to force the other one to break the

748
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:13,120
Speaker 3: other one down. It's mains to be seen who that's

749
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:14,800
Speaker 3: going to be in this match, and even if it

750
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 3: is not enforced with the ones in the ball, I

751
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,240
Speaker 3: don't think they're that great in terms of actually possessing

752
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:20,879
Speaker 3: it and actually breaking down a low block. They haven't

753
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 3: been in that scenario really at all this season. So

754
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:27,360
Speaker 3: I do like under two and a half goals or

755
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:30,879
Speaker 3: anything plus money. Obviously we're we're here for Nottingham force

756
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:32,919
Speaker 3: is how bad they are defending set pieces, that's always

757
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 3: going to be a worry. But again I think this

758
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 3: total is a little inflated with Wells not having anybody

759
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 3: available and two teams that just generally want to play

760
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:44,840
Speaker 3: low blocks and play in transition.

761
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 1: Okay, this is a great three way line, maybe my

762
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:52,399
Speaker 1: favorite of the entire season. Bournemouth plus one thirty seven

763
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:55,480
Speaker 1: at home to Manchester United, who are plus what seventy?

764
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 1: Not only is it funny that United is it an

765
00:38:57,840 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 1: underdog to Bourne. Myth and an know they're on the

766
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:01,839
Speaker 1: road at board, it's been good, like just throw out

767
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 1: that context out the window. But also United's coming up

768
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:08,280
Speaker 1: the like in it an impressive result, Paul thinks considered

769
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 1: against UH Liverpool just by the result.

770
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:14,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, like that's the only thing they care

771
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 3: about these days.

772
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. The joy here is plus th eighty. I

773
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 1: I just this is maybe my favorite UH line of

774
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 1: the entire season. That said, I think it's your you're

775
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:29,879
Speaker 1: betting how many goals uh is Bournemouth going to score?

776
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 1: And ken United keep up with Bournemouth. Ken Manchester United

777
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 1: find a way to keep up with Bourne with here, Anthony.

778
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, I kind of think so, I mean you

779
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:42,319
Speaker 2: get bet the three three exact score three three exact. Yeah,

780
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 2: I agree with BJ's bet, so I won't step on it,

781
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 2: but I will talk about United. It was so much

782
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:52,360
Speaker 2: fun betting them. I actually thoroughly enjoyed it because the

783
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:56,640
Speaker 2: the first half of that match, like Liverpool came out

784
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:59,320
Speaker 2: a little differently. They didn't go like heavy metal balls

785
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 2: to the wall press like the first match. They kind

786
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 2: of were a little more reserved and United was they

787
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:09,839
Speaker 2: had nothing. They had one set piece that almost led

788
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:11,320
Speaker 2: to a chance. That was about all they had in

789
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 2: the first half, but it always felt like, and I

790
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 2: made this joking on Discord, it always felt like the

791
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 2: minute Liverpool tried to up the ante a little bit

792
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 2: and pressed that there were gonna holes We're gonna open up.

793
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 2: And obviously the goal happens on a fluke, but right

794
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 2: after that Liverpool had to turn up the ante and

795
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:30,840
Speaker 2: that's when you saw United start to get chances to

796
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:34,840
Speaker 2: the other end. So I'm a believer in this United

797
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:38,279
Speaker 2: attack right now, and I think there have always been

798
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:40,960
Speaker 2: a talented group. They were inefficient at turning high turnovers

799
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:43,840
Speaker 2: into chances in the first half of the season. Hoyland,

800
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 2: I'm still pretty skeptical of I'm and be honest, but Garnacho, Rashford,

801
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 2: Maynu and Fernandez is something whatever it is that I like.

802
00:40:57,600 --> 00:40:59,239
Speaker 2: But the problem is you just can't get past this

803
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 2: defense even And that's the part that sucks about betting United,

804
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 2: which is, hey, like, you give up four xg to Liverpool,

805
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:10,720
Speaker 2: a Liverpool team that did not go all, A Liverpool

806
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 2: team that I just said, like, didn't even really have

807
00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 2: to go all in the press to create all those chances.

808
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 2: They were pretty subdued relative to the average Liverpool performance.

809
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 2: In the first half especially, they still got to fifteen

810
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:26,840
Speaker 2: shots and one point eight XG. They are now the

811
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:28,839
Speaker 2: worst defense in the prem in the last two months.

812
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:31,400
Speaker 2: I mentioned the stat earlier there are four teams were

813
00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:35,720
Speaker 2: giving up at least two xg every match since January thirtieth.

814
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 2: It's Lowtontown, Sheffield United, Aston Villa and Manchester United two

815
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 2: point twenty four the worst of the four. So again

816
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:49,239
Speaker 2: it's the twenty shots a game off the bus joke,

817
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 2: it's the reality. And I don't really think there's a

818
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:56,959
Speaker 2: solve because Casamiro is pretty cooked and it's pretty evident

819
00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 2: when you watch them, But then they subm in mcdonmin ay,

820
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 2: and honestly, at this point they should just play mcdonminate

821
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 2: because at least he gets forward and gets goals and

822
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:08,359
Speaker 2: he's good on set pieces and it's like pretty good

823
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 2: in those elements. Casamiro hasn't given them anything right now,

824
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:13,759
Speaker 2: so you know, maybe they can finally get mount to

825
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:15,360
Speaker 2: full fitness because I think he would probably be the

826
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 2: best at that role next to Manu. But yeah, the

827
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 2: defensive situation now they're going to have more of the possession.

828
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:29,400
Speaker 2: Does Bournemouth try to press Kumwala into more mistakes if

829
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:31,240
Speaker 2: he's not able to go, because he had a pretty

830
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 2: good debut and I thought he did some nice things

831
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:35,800
Speaker 2: defending without the ball in the penalty area. But I

832
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:37,320
Speaker 2: think it's a different animal when they ask you to

833
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 2: be a ball playing center back and the United build

834
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,400
Speaker 2: up against a team that's going to press and you

835
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:43,880
Speaker 2: have to play a different role. That's where the usually

836
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 2: you start to see the flaws and certain guys and

837
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 2: why they don't end up on like Man City and

838
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:49,279
Speaker 2: Liverpool is because you're not as good with the ball

839
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:53,320
Speaker 2: at their feet. That could be a problem. Maguire is

840
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:57,560
Speaker 2: not really good and build up either, And so if

841
00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:00,919
Speaker 2: that's the center back pairing again with Donald and Wambasaka,

842
00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:03,920
Speaker 2: there's no Bill up there. It's just gonna be minute

843
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 2: trying to like weave his way through the entire Bournemouth defense.

844
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 2: So yeah, I agree with b J.

845
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, bornemoth team total Moore and a half minus one

846
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 3: twenty my favorite bets of the season. So yeah, Anthony

847
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 3: hit the nail on the head the end there where

848
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 3: you know, the previous meeting they were kind of in

849
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:23,920
Speaker 3: the same scenario right where they were dealing with a

850
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 3: lot of injuries. They were trying to build out of

851
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:28,400
Speaker 3: the back occasionally because they were at home, they were

852
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:31,840
Speaker 3: at Old Trafford and with you know how Bournemouth press is,

853
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:35,839
Speaker 3: with their hybrid press, it can be manipulated and there

854
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 3: are easy outlet balls when they like to push you

855
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:40,320
Speaker 3: to one side of the pitch and you know, not

856
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:43,359
Speaker 3: have kept trying to do that, but they kept turning

857
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:46,400
Speaker 3: it over right. So, and what's funny you mentioned mcdomanay

858
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 3: because the first Bournemouth goal led to it was because

859
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:53,280
Speaker 3: of they left mcconm and a free and he got pressed,

860
00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:54,799
Speaker 3: he lost the ball and it led to an easy

861
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 3: chance for Bournemouth. So the other aspect is okay, So

862
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:00,560
Speaker 3: what if United just says we're just going to send

863
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:02,319
Speaker 3: the ball on, like we're not gonna try to build

864
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 3: up or whatever it is. Well, they've been very average

865
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 3: at winning second balls this season. Even defensively, they've been

866
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 3: really bad at defending long ball's the fifth highest long

867
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:15,400
Speaker 3: ball complete a percentage in the league. So if they

868
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 3: want to get to do a back and forth long

869
00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 3: ball type of game with Bournemouth, they don't have the

870
00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 3: guys to be able to do that. And as much

871
00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:24,239
Speaker 3: as we've seen. I mean, Tenhawk is not going to

872
00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 3: change like right, Like if they were playing Liverpool or

873
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 3: City or Arsenal, yes, they would probably sit in some

874
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 3: type of low defensive block. They're not going to do

875
00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 3: that against Bournemouth, right, They're going to try to press

876
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:35,719
Speaker 3: them high. And Bournemouth is a team that is very

877
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:38,920
Speaker 3: versatile tactically. When they have the ball, they like to

878
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 3: use a lot of their stuff out of possession to

879
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 3: create chances in possession. But when they're going from a

880
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 3: goalkick situation, sometimes they'll send it along. Sometimes they build

881
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:49,200
Speaker 3: either the back. But they're kind of similar to a

882
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 3: team like Brentford, right, who just absolutely throttled United and

883
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:55,920
Speaker 3: created over to re expected goals against them. Well, Brentford

884
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:58,600
Speaker 3: just did some simple outlet balls when United tried to

885
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:01,400
Speaker 3: press them high. Bournemouth can do the exact same thing,

886
00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 3: and they can do it over and over and over

887
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:08,320
Speaker 3: again and again because United keeps getting results. Ten Hogs

888
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 3: not changing what he's doing, you know, like because of

889
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 3: all their injuries. This is kind of what they are

890
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 3: and what they have to do. You mentioned some stats, Anthony,

891
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 3: I've got a couple since the beginning of February, United

892
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 3: is conceding over twenty three shots per match. Since the

893
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 3: beginning of February. They are conceding two point four expected

894
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:29,640
Speaker 3: goals since the beginning of February. Only Lowton Town is

895
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 3: worse than that. So because of United's inability not only

896
00:45:33,840 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 3: to hit home with their press, but also to defend

897
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:40,440
Speaker 3: long balls and then teams in space. I mean, who's

898
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 3: to say Bournemouth doesn't have twenty shots in this match, right, Like,

899
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:45,200
Speaker 3: even if they don't hold the majority of the possession. Like,

900
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:47,719
Speaker 3: who's to say that Bournemouth can't do exactly what they

901
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:49,960
Speaker 3: did to United el Trafford when they punish them three

902
00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:52,480
Speaker 3: nothing with two goals off a high turnover and one

903
00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:54,640
Speaker 3: off of a set piece, right, Like, Bournemouth is good

904
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 3: at set pieces as well. So yeah, I projected Moremouth

905
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:02,399
Speaker 3: for two point one goals here. I don't really see

906
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 3: a scenario. How you know they don't They don't at

907
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:07,360
Speaker 3: least create to expect goals home here against United?

908
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, no team in the premise a lot

909
00:46:10,080 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 2: more shots from set pieces this year than men United.

910
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:18,439
Speaker 3: Yep, So open play set pieces doesn't matter.

911
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 2: They just give up shots.

912
00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 1: Okay, west Ham at Fulham. Now west Ham plus one

913
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 1: thirty full Fulham plus one ninety on the road draw

914
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:29,800
Speaker 1: plus two sixty pass yep pass anything.

915
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 2: Well, you know, west Ham's in a very weird spot.

916
00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:35,600
Speaker 2: They have no incentive to play all their main guys.

917
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:39,439
Speaker 3: So yeah, Bone's probably gonna miss this match as well,

918
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:41,279
Speaker 3: So that means Antonio is going to be up top.

919
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:45,759
Speaker 3: Maybe look for Fulham, dare I say, even though their

920
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:48,520
Speaker 3: road form has been terrible, Maybe maybe Moony has any

921
00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 3: time goal scorer?

922
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:52,719
Speaker 2: How like that just keeping they Like I said, though

923
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:54,880
Speaker 2: west Ham like probably doesn't play cutis or packets a

924
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 2: ton of minutes right.

925
00:46:57,360 --> 00:47:01,759
Speaker 3: For transition, low block whatever it is against maybe the

926
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:04,400
Speaker 3: hottest striker in the world right now. I don't know

927
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:06,799
Speaker 3: what it is to be anytime goal scorer, but he's

928
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:08,359
Speaker 3: generally a decent plus number.

929
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 2: He do worth look.

930
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:15,360
Speaker 1: And finally, game of the week Chelsea and Everton Monday

931
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 1: Night Football, Anthony. I don't know if you recall this

932
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:21,320
Speaker 1: because we're trying to block out the last podcast we

933
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:25,520
Speaker 1: did in which we kept saying, uh unders, first leg

934
00:47:25,640 --> 00:47:29,359
Speaker 1: unders in the Champions League, only to watch goals get

935
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:31,200
Speaker 1: scored seemingly every six minutes.

936
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 2: I bet City under again even though it ended three

937
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:34,480
Speaker 2: to three.

938
00:47:35,040 --> 00:47:42,399
Speaker 1: And I would yeah, okay, it's just like you could score.

939
00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:42,839
Speaker 3: Yeah.

940
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll talk about this more Sunday, but when we

941
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:49,920
Speaker 2: talk about second legs. But yeah, sometimes the shots from

942
00:47:49,920 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 2: twenty five yards go in. That's part of the game.

943
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:56,239
Speaker 2: It's a HIGHBERI and spot less than two XG total.

944
00:47:56,960 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 1: Anyways, I don't know if you remember this, but I

945
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:03,360
Speaker 1: said right before we were done recording, like I'm expecting

946
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:06,520
Speaker 1: to wake up on Monday morning with another points deduction

947
00:48:06,680 --> 00:48:07,520
Speaker 1: for Everdent.

948
00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:08,800
Speaker 2: And what happened?

949
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 1: Though only two I know, but a third one might come,

950
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:13,399
Speaker 1: a third one might come.

951
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is great.

952
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:17,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I think it'll be. It's something to do

953
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:19,799
Speaker 1: with the stadium's.

954
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:22,840
Speaker 2: Gonna start with negative two next year. Yeah, in the championship.

955
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:31,319
Speaker 1: Chelsea here, Yeah, I don't even know where I am here,

956
00:48:31,640 --> 00:48:34,240
Speaker 1: but yeah, So another point deduction for evident only two points,

957
00:48:34,640 --> 00:48:39,040
Speaker 1: only two, But that puts them right back into the

958
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 1: thick of the relegation race. They can get first, you

959
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 1: get your first win since the Soember sixteenth, that it

960
00:48:46,160 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 1: turns into a draw. So a great, a great line.

961
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:54,160
Speaker 1: Whereas someone said, Burnley ninety plus two days one one,

962
00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:59,719
Speaker 1: which is essentially what happened. So they're they're back on

963
00:48:59,840 --> 00:49:03,440
Speaker 1: twenty seven points. So hey, let's just let's just explain

964
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:05,399
Speaker 1: this relegation race as best we can. Like I said,

965
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:09,439
Speaker 1: Sheffield's on six Sheffield units and sixteen points, they're basically done.

966
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:13,000
Speaker 1: Burnley looks cooked now on nineteen, Newton Town's on twenty five,

967
00:49:13,520 --> 00:49:16,520
Speaker 1: still alive, and then you have Forest also on twenty five,

968
00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:18,400
Speaker 1: but ahead on goal difference. Of course they've also had

969
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:19,480
Speaker 1: a point deduction as well.

970
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:20,680
Speaker 2: They could get points back.

971
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, and they could get points back which they could

972
00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:26,040
Speaker 1: lose more points or they Yeah, this is further complicated stuff.

973
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:29,600
Speaker 1: And then Everdon twenty seven Brentford twenty nine Palace. You

974
00:49:29,640 --> 00:49:31,880
Speaker 1: can throw them in here too. They are on thirty.

975
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:36,880
Speaker 1: So yeah, Everdon needs to continue to pick up results.

976
00:49:36,880 --> 00:49:40,160
Speaker 1: They got their first win since December sixteenth over Burnley

977
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:44,200
Speaker 1: on I thought a decent performance, pretty stodgy match, but

978
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:47,440
Speaker 1: they get the lucky break on the goal. And here

979
00:49:47,520 --> 00:49:51,080
Speaker 1: they go to Chelsea to take on the Blues. Are

980
00:49:51,640 --> 00:49:54,359
Speaker 1: Chelsea's might just won fifty at home. Everton is plus

981
00:49:54,440 --> 00:49:56,920
Speaker 1: four hundred in the draw, is three to one in

982
00:49:57,000 --> 00:50:00,759
Speaker 1: this one Bja, you and I are once again on

983
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:03,839
Speaker 1: the same side here. Let's keep doing it baby, Yeah,

984
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:04,840
Speaker 1: I mean maybe what.

985
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:08,680
Speaker 3: Would you say Chelsea's offensive performance was against Sheffield was

986
00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 3: maybe one of the most alarming that we've seen this

987
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:14,239
Speaker 3: Premier League season. Six shots and point two x G

988
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:16,799
Speaker 3: against what Mico down is historically one of the worst

989
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 3: Premier League defenses that we've ever seen. But think about

990
00:50:19,600 --> 00:50:23,280
Speaker 3: how crazy that is and if you think about how Chelsea.

991
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:26,719
Speaker 3: We've said this many times, but where Chelsea is is

992
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:29,240
Speaker 3: good when they are in possession is playing in transition.

993
00:50:29,320 --> 00:50:31,720
Speaker 3: You know, teams that will press them high leave space

994
00:50:31,840 --> 00:50:34,520
Speaker 3: for all of their runners to go in behind. When

995
00:50:34,520 --> 00:50:36,359
Speaker 3: they play teams that and you can go look through

996
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:38,960
Speaker 3: all the results, like if you if you zero in

997
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:41,600
Speaker 3: on the teams that they've played who had played low

998
00:50:41,680 --> 00:50:44,280
Speaker 3: blocks against them and not pressed them and not done anything,

999
00:50:44,680 --> 00:50:46,960
Speaker 3: they generally have struggled. There really hasn't been a match

1000
00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:49,399
Speaker 3: where they've created over two x G against a team

1001
00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:52,320
Speaker 3: that plays a low block against them. Everton's very different.

1002
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:55,600
Speaker 3: They play Diutches. I love Diutsche so much because he's

1003
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:57,200
Speaker 3: one of the few managers that plays what we call

1004
00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:00,359
Speaker 3: he plays a high block now where the and they

1005
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:02,239
Speaker 3: get all these high turnovers and everything is not generally

1006
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:05,120
Speaker 3: because they're pressing high, but because they play so far

1007
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:08,000
Speaker 3: up the pitch and generally are passive so far up

1008
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:10,319
Speaker 3: the pitch that they're able to turn teams over because

1009
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:12,960
Speaker 3: teams have really struggle to play through them. So this

1010
00:51:13,160 --> 00:51:15,840
Speaker 3: is a situation where Everton, who we know has been

1011
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:18,239
Speaker 3: undervalued for a very long time, still top five and

1012
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:21,840
Speaker 3: non penalty XG you allowed, still second in big scoring

1013
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 3: chances allowed, but they also the third most ball recoveries,

1014
00:51:24,600 --> 00:51:28,200
Speaker 3: which is an indication of how hard you work when

1015
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:30,319
Speaker 3: you're out of possession. How good are you winning second balls?

1016
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:31,840
Speaker 3: How good are you winning duels in the middle of

1017
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:35,040
Speaker 3: the pitch. Everton are elite in that aspect and Chelsea

1018
00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:38,120
Speaker 3: really are not. And if you think about, okay, you know,

1019
00:51:38,960 --> 00:51:40,759
Speaker 3: how does Chelsea score here, Well, it's probably going to

1020
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:44,160
Speaker 3: be some you know, hilarious thing to add to the

1021
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:47,800
Speaker 3: Everton highlight reel for the season. But they got to

1022
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:49,719
Speaker 3: find somebody that can play in between the lines or

1023
00:51:49,760 --> 00:51:51,520
Speaker 3: somebody that can exploit the space in the middle, or

1024
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 3: they're gonna have to play out wide. Paul Palmer is

1025
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:56,439
Speaker 3: really the only guy that Chelsea has that can play

1026
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:58,360
Speaker 3: that role in the middle of the pitch, finding that

1027
00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:00,880
Speaker 3: space in between the lines. And if that's the only

1028
00:52:00,960 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 3: guy that can do that, and he's also your number

1029
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:06,560
Speaker 3: one goal scoring threat right now, it's a very difficult

1030
00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:10,319
Speaker 3: situation of how Chelsea actually breaks Everton down consistently over

1031
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:12,200
Speaker 3: the entirety of the match. I mean, even in the

1032
00:52:12,239 --> 00:52:15,000
Speaker 3: previous meeting, I Emerson beat them to nothing. Chelsea has

1033
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:17,360
Speaker 3: sixteen shots and just point nine to xt g not

1034
00:52:17,560 --> 00:52:20,279
Speaker 3: didn't register one shot with an actually rating over point

1035
00:52:20,280 --> 00:52:23,080
Speaker 3: one five. So this is a really good match up

1036
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:25,080
Speaker 3: here for Everton out of possession. And we also know

1037
00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:29,360
Speaker 3: Chelsea has struggled defending in transitions, so obviously where Everton's

1038
00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:31,719
Speaker 3: after best. So I think Everton plus a half here

1039
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:34,120
Speaker 3: plus one twenty. I only projected Chelsea around even money,

1040
00:52:34,280 --> 00:52:35,839
Speaker 3: so I think there's value on Everton again.

1041
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 2: I will have a full preview of this match on

1042
00:52:38,719 --> 00:52:41,879
Speaker 2: Sunday in the Action Network app. Really excited to dive

1043
00:52:41,920 --> 00:52:45,279
Speaker 2: into it. I echo bja sentiments about Everton's defense being

1044
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:48,960
Speaker 2: well suited to slow down Chelsea. This market was minus

1045
00:52:48,960 --> 00:52:51,600
Speaker 2: one eighty on Chelsea. It has come down. I'm gonna

1046
00:52:51,640 --> 00:52:54,400
Speaker 2: hope to get a better number, but I'm back Everton

1047
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:57,239
Speaker 2: plus one here. If we can go a boy better number,

1048
00:52:57,239 --> 00:52:57,839
Speaker 2: I'm gonna happen.

1049
00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:04,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, Everton money line. I'll go into it a little later. Okay,

1050
00:53:05,120 --> 00:53:08,680
Speaker 1: that wraps up the Premier League. Bundesliga time, Anthony, you're

1051
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:10,000
Speaker 1: the only one with a bet in Germany.

1052
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:13,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, classic spot here. Leverkusen under three and a half

1053
00:53:13,080 --> 00:53:16,400
Speaker 2: against vertebrem And minus one thirty. Leverkusen probably going to

1054
00:53:16,480 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 2: rotate through its key attackers. The Bundesliga is over. The

1055
00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:22,520
Speaker 2: gap continues to grow and we have seen, you know,

1056
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:24,719
Speaker 2: we saw a couple weeks ago Leverkusen rested their first

1057
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:27,719
Speaker 2: team in the Europa League. But now against West Ham,

1058
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:29,880
Speaker 2: I do expect all the main guys to play, get

1059
00:53:29,920 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 2: the weekend off and then play again Thursday, especially in

1060
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:35,320
Speaker 2: the first half. So this total was just inflated and

1061
00:53:35,360 --> 00:53:38,000
Speaker 2: I expected to close a lot lower once they announced

1062
00:53:38,000 --> 00:53:40,400
Speaker 2: that the lineup, and then none of the main lever

1063
00:53:40,520 --> 00:53:43,680
Speaker 2: Cousin goals scorers are playing in it, like Viertz and Frimpong,

1064
00:53:43,800 --> 00:53:46,319
Speaker 2: especially the full back and their best creator in the middle.

1065
00:53:46,880 --> 00:53:49,320
Speaker 2: I do expect to sit maybe even Grimaldo too.

1066
00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:54,440
Speaker 1: Okay on to Spain La Liga Beja anything here.

1067
00:53:55,239 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 3: Bill Bao minus won forty at home against the Real

1068
00:53:58,120 --> 00:54:03,160
Speaker 3: the Copa del Ray Champions Athletic Billboo bless generally a great,

1069
00:54:03,480 --> 00:54:06,000
Speaker 3: great match up here for them because Via Real has

1070
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 3: been the worst transition defense in Spain this year. You know,

1071
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:12,840
Speaker 3: they've obviously played a little more aggressive, but you know,

1072
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 3: bill Bao is one of the better transition teams, not

1073
00:54:15,160 --> 00:54:16,960
Speaker 3: only in Spain but really in Europe because of how

1074
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:19,160
Speaker 3: they are able to break out of their mid block

1075
00:54:19,280 --> 00:54:21,320
Speaker 3: force high turnovers. And that's what they did in the

1076
00:54:21,360 --> 00:54:23,480
Speaker 3: previous meeting. I mean they went up three three mail

1077
00:54:23,520 --> 00:54:24,920
Speaker 3: on the blink of an eye, and yes, if you

1078
00:54:24,960 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 3: look at the over the totality of the match, the

1079
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:29,799
Speaker 3: XG was pretty close and berre I ended up scoring

1080
00:54:29,840 --> 00:54:32,680
Speaker 3: twice and it ended up being three two. But out

1081
00:54:32,680 --> 00:54:34,719
Speaker 3: of the gates, I mean, Biboo is just punishing them

1082
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:37,360
Speaker 3: time and time again in transition. So this is another

1083
00:54:37,480 --> 00:54:40,080
Speaker 3: great matchup for them and honestly a very low price

1084
00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:41,879
Speaker 3: when you look at how much better their underlying numbers

1085
00:54:41,920 --> 00:54:44,240
Speaker 3: have been compared to be a Real this season.

1086
00:54:44,840 --> 00:54:46,880
Speaker 1: Antony anything in Spain I.

1087
00:54:46,920 --> 00:54:49,240
Speaker 2: Got two, and I'm going to play against these markets

1088
00:54:49,280 --> 00:54:51,319
Speaker 2: that are deflating the hell out of these two teams

1089
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:53,800
Speaker 2: in Europe. Look, I get that, like there could be

1090
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:56,879
Speaker 2: some rotation for Barsa and fred Letti because they're playing

1091
00:54:56,880 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 2: in the Champions League on Wednesday and they have to

1092
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:01,799
Speaker 2: turn around for a Sunday for a Saturday League match.

1093
00:55:02,120 --> 00:55:06,680
Speaker 2: But I mean, Madrid's been let He's been better than

1094
00:55:06,760 --> 00:55:08,759
Speaker 2: Gerona this year. They're only plus one ten at home.

1095
00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:11,840
Speaker 2: It's kind of crazy to me. Uh. And then Barsas

1096
00:55:11,880 --> 00:55:14,960
Speaker 2: minus one fifteen at Cadith. This is a classic like

1097
00:55:15,160 --> 00:55:18,960
Speaker 2: relegation spot where the relegated, the awful team who's been

1098
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:20,719
Speaker 2: one of the very clearly one of the three worst

1099
00:55:20,719 --> 00:55:25,440
Speaker 2: teams in Spain all year, is only minus one fifteen

1100
00:55:25,480 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 2: to get a result against Barcelona, who, even if they rotate,

1101
00:55:29,680 --> 00:55:32,759
Speaker 2: like Leamgamal has enough depth. And the interesting thing about

1102
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:34,919
Speaker 2: Barsa is that they're actually in a spot where they're

1103
00:55:34,920 --> 00:55:37,839
Speaker 2: getting guys back from injury and so they may play

1104
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:40,880
Speaker 2: them like half. That's enough, that's all I need. So

1105
00:55:41,400 --> 00:55:44,000
Speaker 2: I'm gonna I'm expecting like half for a lot of

1106
00:55:44,040 --> 00:55:46,800
Speaker 2: their best players, and I think as a result of that,

1107
00:55:47,000 --> 00:55:48,920
Speaker 2: like that's enough to separate from a Cadeth team. I

1108
00:55:49,000 --> 00:55:51,320
Speaker 2: have this line like minus one and they're only minus

1109
00:55:51,360 --> 00:55:54,759
Speaker 2: one fifteen, so I'm happy to lay it. You know,

1110
00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:57,279
Speaker 2: you could take off three or four percent for the

1111
00:55:57,360 --> 00:56:00,120
Speaker 2: fact that the spot sucks, but you're still not going

1112
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:02,520
Speaker 2: to get all the way to barcelonly being the small

1113
00:56:02,520 --> 00:56:03,080
Speaker 2: of a road.

1114
00:56:02,960 --> 00:56:07,280
Speaker 1: Favorite, and then in Italy right back to you Anthony.

1115
00:56:07,160 --> 00:56:10,200
Speaker 2: Napoli minus one and a half. Finally, this team is

1116
00:56:10,239 --> 00:56:12,960
Speaker 2: starting to figure out how to run better to closer

1117
00:56:12,960 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 2: to its expected goals numbers. They get Frosty known at

1118
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:19,640
Speaker 2: home Napoli scoring outbursts against Manza, but really at home,

1119
00:56:19,719 --> 00:56:22,360
Speaker 2: I have this game closer to two, and I know

1120
00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:25,320
Speaker 2: that Napoli that Syria has been a really low scoring

1121
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 2: environment this year. That is not true for frosting On,

1122
00:56:28,840 --> 00:56:33,080
Speaker 2: who's given up sixty one goals, the second most in LaLiga,

1123
00:56:33,160 --> 00:56:37,359
Speaker 2: second only to BJ Sournitana, So you know they can

1124
00:56:37,480 --> 00:56:40,200
Speaker 2: actually score. They have a pretty functioning attack, but against

1125
00:56:40,239 --> 00:56:43,040
Speaker 2: this Napoli defense, which greides out as elite, they're not

1126
00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:45,000
Speaker 2: going to get a ton on Offensively, They're still gonna

1127
00:56:45,040 --> 00:56:47,000
Speaker 2: lead goals the other end, I Thinknapoli gets separation and

1128
00:56:47,080 --> 00:56:47,440
Speaker 2: runs this.

1129
00:56:47,560 --> 00:56:50,359
Speaker 1: Up, bij what do you have in Italy?

1130
00:56:51,080 --> 00:56:54,759
Speaker 3: Bern daherby this weekend? Terraino Juventus both team to score

1131
00:56:54,800 --> 00:56:58,320
Speaker 3: now minus one forty two of the You know, with

1132
00:56:58,560 --> 00:57:01,680
Speaker 3: Siria A being lower event, are the lowest event teams

1133
00:57:01,800 --> 00:57:04,120
Speaker 3: in Syria A this season. You know, they're both kind

1134
00:57:04,120 --> 00:57:05,640
Speaker 3: of out of the same mold to Reno's more of

1135
00:57:05,680 --> 00:57:07,560
Speaker 3: a mid block team as opposed to Juventus being a

1136
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:09,560
Speaker 3: low block. I still can't get over the fact but

1137
00:57:09,640 --> 00:57:13,439
Speaker 3: they aren't really good that Allegri is just letting people

1138
00:57:13,480 --> 00:57:16,919
Speaker 3: into his final third. Juventus has not the most final

1139
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:20,080
Speaker 3: third touches of anybody in Syria, but are so good

1140
00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:22,640
Speaker 3: at defending their penalty area. And for a Torino team

1141
00:57:22,680 --> 00:57:25,640
Speaker 3: that's not very good offensively. Yes, they have some pieces

1142
00:57:25,680 --> 00:57:27,120
Speaker 3: that can maybe give you events a little bit of

1143
00:57:27,160 --> 00:57:29,600
Speaker 3: a trouble, but I mean this sas like you like

1144
00:57:29,640 --> 00:57:31,240
Speaker 3: the nil nil Michael. I mean this hays nil neil

1145
00:57:31,240 --> 00:57:34,360
Speaker 3: written all over it. So both teams to score no

1146
00:57:34,440 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 3: at minus one forty projected to closer to minus one

1147
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:40,320
Speaker 3: ninety for two teams that are allowing under point a

1148
00:57:40,440 --> 00:57:42,360
Speaker 3: non penalty at sheep for ninety this season.

1149
00:57:43,880 --> 00:57:48,920
Speaker 2: The funny thing about just kind of Neuve is that,

1150
00:57:49,120 --> 00:57:52,200
Speaker 2: like they're up one nil against Fiorentina and the fans

1151
00:57:52,200 --> 00:57:54,560
Speaker 2: are whistling and booing because they're not really trying to attack. No,

1152
00:57:54,600 --> 00:57:56,840
Speaker 2: I mean, his job is in deep shit because they

1153
00:57:56,880 --> 00:57:59,160
Speaker 2: are not good enough to overcome the fact that they

1154
00:57:59,280 --> 00:58:03,040
Speaker 2: play in all full brand football for a team who's

1155
00:58:03,040 --> 00:58:06,680
Speaker 2: supposed to be one of the I mean, like Maurinho

1156
00:58:06,840 --> 00:58:08,400
Speaker 2: did it as like a bit for a while when

1157
00:58:08,400 --> 00:58:11,680
Speaker 2: he was at Tottenham, and he's notorious for like his

1158
00:58:11,880 --> 00:58:16,440
Speaker 2: defensive thing, but Marinho peak Marinho teams didn't even do this.

1159
00:58:17,200 --> 00:58:19,280
Speaker 2: They would like still like when they played like really

1160
00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:21,880
Speaker 2: bad teams, they were not parking the bus up a

1161
00:58:21,920 --> 00:58:24,840
Speaker 2: goal every match, which is what they're doing right now.

1162
00:58:24,880 --> 00:58:27,840
Speaker 2: And it's just so it's awful to watch. And you know,

1163
00:58:27,880 --> 00:58:30,000
Speaker 2: when they're like not really in danger of conceding, you're

1164
00:58:30,000 --> 00:58:32,320
Speaker 2: giving teams ball in your penalty area down you know,

1165
00:58:32,440 --> 00:58:34,000
Speaker 2: up a goal with like eight minutes, lef, you're playing

1166
00:58:34,040 --> 00:58:37,080
Speaker 2: Fiorentina and you're hanging on for dear life. It's not

1167
00:58:37,280 --> 00:58:39,320
Speaker 2: it's not a fun life, and it's not fun for

1168
00:58:39,680 --> 00:58:41,280
Speaker 2: fans of a team who are used to seeing them,

1169
00:58:41,760 --> 00:58:44,520
Speaker 2: you know, play fun attacking football and they're watching inter

1170
00:58:44,640 --> 00:58:46,840
Speaker 2: run up scores on teams. It's it's pretty funny to

1171
00:58:46,880 --> 00:58:49,760
Speaker 2: see Uve and and just how poorly run they are

1172
00:58:49,880 --> 00:58:52,800
Speaker 2: and allegree, I don't know. They have good attackers like

1173
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:56,240
Speaker 2: Vollhovich is a good serial striker, and Kiss.

1174
00:58:56,440 --> 00:58:59,400
Speaker 3: Never let the world on fire two years ago and

1175
00:58:59,440 --> 00:59:01,560
Speaker 3: now he's just like in this low block centric system.

1176
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:04,120
Speaker 3: I did see. Uh you know, who knows if it's

1177
00:59:04,120 --> 00:59:06,040
Speaker 3: true or ever know it's coming to fruition, but uh,

1178
00:59:07,160 --> 00:59:09,480
Speaker 3: Mata over at Bologna, it sounds like he's agreed to

1179
00:59:09,560 --> 00:59:12,480
Speaker 3: personal terms with Juventus, so we'll see. We'll see if

1180
00:59:12,520 --> 00:59:14,520
Speaker 3: that ever comes to fruition. But Bologna might be playing

1181
00:59:14,520 --> 00:59:16,600
Speaker 3: in the Champions League or they probably will actually because

1182
00:59:16,640 --> 00:59:19,880
Speaker 3: you know Italy getting at that spot, so we'll see

1183
00:59:19,960 --> 00:59:23,880
Speaker 3: what happens. But yeah, this Bessus team is so so

1184
00:59:24,080 --> 00:59:25,960
Speaker 3: old school in such a funny way.

1185
00:59:27,040 --> 00:59:30,240
Speaker 1: All right, before you get to the underdogs, Bjay, you

1186
00:59:30,320 --> 00:59:32,120
Speaker 1: have a player in legal I.

1187
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:35,240
Speaker 3: Do I like breast against Leon and you know what, Michael,

1188
00:59:35,360 --> 00:59:38,320
Speaker 3: I'm gonna save it for the underdog section coming up next.

1189
00:59:39,040 --> 00:59:41,200
Speaker 1: All right, well, let's do it. I have a feeling

1190
00:59:41,240 --> 00:59:43,640
Speaker 1: you're gonna be talking about Stad de Breast as your

1191
00:59:43,680 --> 00:59:44,440
Speaker 1: favorite underdog.

1192
00:59:44,680 --> 00:59:47,800
Speaker 3: You get place second place in League Gun, and you

1193
00:59:47,880 --> 00:59:50,720
Speaker 3: know what, as somebody who bet them to be relegated

1194
00:59:50,800 --> 00:59:53,880
Speaker 3: this season, I was dead wrong. And they they're really good.

1195
00:59:53,960 --> 00:59:56,280
Speaker 3: And you know it's not because of some you know,

1196
00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:58,440
Speaker 3: like for example, like a team like Bologna who has

1197
00:59:58,560 --> 01:00:01,160
Speaker 3: like this tactical revolution and all the tactic goas. You know,

1198
01:00:01,440 --> 01:00:04,360
Speaker 3: look at it like they're just doing very simple things

1199
01:00:04,560 --> 01:00:07,760
Speaker 3: better than everybody else. They're winning second balls, they're winning

1200
01:00:07,800 --> 01:00:09,920
Speaker 3: duels in the middle of the pitch, they're winning aerial

1201
01:00:10,000 --> 01:00:12,200
Speaker 3: duels and a really high number, and they're pressing high,

1202
01:00:12,200 --> 01:00:14,640
Speaker 3: and they're pressing high very effectively. One of the stats

1203
01:00:14,680 --> 01:00:16,880
Speaker 3: that I was going through them and it really caught

1204
01:00:16,920 --> 01:00:19,240
Speaker 3: my eye is you know, they're holding the highest the

1205
01:00:19,280 --> 01:00:23,160
Speaker 3: fifth had high fifth highest average possession League Gun, but

1206
01:00:23,240 --> 01:00:25,160
Speaker 3: at the third most ball recoveries. Like that tells you

1207
01:00:25,320 --> 01:00:27,920
Speaker 3: how hard they work out of possession and how good

1208
01:00:28,000 --> 01:00:30,840
Speaker 3: they are at winning all of those loose balls. They're

1209
01:00:30,880 --> 01:00:32,520
Speaker 3: taking on a layon team that has had a little

1210
01:00:32,520 --> 01:00:34,600
Speaker 3: bit of a resurgence. Obviously, they started this season in

1211
01:00:34,880 --> 01:00:38,200
Speaker 3: the relegation zone and they've come back up. But since

1212
01:00:38,280 --> 01:00:39,960
Speaker 3: the turn of the new of the calendar in twenty

1213
01:00:40,040 --> 01:00:42,880
Speaker 3: twenty four, Breast has the best expected gold differential in

1214
01:00:42,960 --> 01:00:45,040
Speaker 3: France at plus eight point two, while I own by

1215
01:00:45,040 --> 01:00:47,320
Speaker 3: that same timeframe is only plus three point four. So

1216
01:00:47,440 --> 01:00:51,400
Speaker 3: I think that Breast is generally really undervalued. Here on

1217
01:00:51,560 --> 01:00:53,240
Speaker 3: the road at Layon. I mean, if you can go

1218
01:00:53,280 --> 01:00:55,320
Speaker 3: through all the results, they basically by XG. They've only

1219
01:00:55,400 --> 01:00:58,080
Speaker 3: been blown out three times. It's been at Marseille, at PSG,

1220
01:00:58,160 --> 01:00:59,920
Speaker 3: at at Well, which is the three best team in France.

1221
01:01:00,080 --> 01:01:02,400
Speaker 3: So I really like Breast here on the road plus

1222
01:01:02,440 --> 01:01:03,360
Speaker 3: two forty five.

1223
01:01:03,760 --> 01:01:06,520
Speaker 1: A right, I think, what's it's been a few weeks

1224
01:01:06,560 --> 01:01:08,840
Speaker 1: since I've highlighted Everdon and here, so I'm allowed to

1225
01:01:08,920 --> 01:01:12,400
Speaker 1: go back. I'll take on Chelsea with ever Everdon right

1226
01:01:12,400 --> 01:01:15,880
Speaker 1: now is plus four one hundred. They're my favorite underdog

1227
01:01:16,160 --> 01:01:18,760
Speaker 1: of the week. I think that there's something to be

1228
01:01:18,840 --> 01:01:21,680
Speaker 1: said about the way Chelsea approaches certain matches right now.

1229
01:01:21,760 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 1: They're kind of on the beach. The season's over, you know,

1230
01:01:24,400 --> 01:01:27,000
Speaker 1: draw against Burnley, a draw against Sheffield United in a

1231
01:01:27,320 --> 01:01:33,800
Speaker 1: very very very concerning performance from in terms of going forward. Yeah,

1232
01:01:33,840 --> 01:01:36,200
Speaker 1: they had a great showing against Manchester United, but you

1233
01:01:36,240 --> 01:01:37,960
Speaker 1: can easily get up for that one. They're home to

1234
01:01:38,080 --> 01:01:40,040
Speaker 1: Newcastle United, another one that you can get up for.

1235
01:01:41,000 --> 01:01:43,600
Speaker 1: Before that, it was a draw against Brentford. It seems

1236
01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:45,960
Speaker 1: like they are picking and choosing when they show up.

1237
01:01:46,080 --> 01:01:48,880
Speaker 1: Everdon of course don't have that luxury. With another points

1238
01:01:48,920 --> 01:01:51,280
Speaker 1: deduction coming here, They're going to need to be on

1239
01:01:51,400 --> 01:01:53,440
Speaker 1: the front foot a little bit more than you'd imagine

1240
01:01:54,160 --> 01:01:56,280
Speaker 1: in this kind of matchup. But I think that boats

1241
01:01:56,320 --> 01:01:58,480
Speaker 1: well against a Chelsea team that they should be able

1242
01:01:58,560 --> 01:02:00,960
Speaker 1: to bully in the middle of the field. And I

1243
01:02:01,200 --> 01:02:03,320
Speaker 1: think that we could see maybe a little bit of

1244
01:02:03,400 --> 01:02:05,680
Speaker 1: that run that we've been waiting for from Everton like

1245
01:02:05,760 --> 01:02:09,000
Speaker 1: we saw in October. Perhaps it's started last week against

1246
01:02:09,000 --> 01:02:11,840
Speaker 1: Burnley and now that they've got the the monkey off

1247
01:02:11,840 --> 01:02:14,439
Speaker 1: there back. In terms of ending the schneid, we see

1248
01:02:14,440 --> 01:02:17,080
Speaker 1: an upset here at Stanford Bridge on Monday Night football

1249
01:02:17,200 --> 01:02:19,439
Speaker 1: four to one on the Tofees Anthony.

1250
01:02:19,680 --> 01:02:21,960
Speaker 2: Seventh time we've used Everton. We're one and five. We

1251
01:02:23,240 --> 01:02:24,920
Speaker 2: did have a plus two to fifty win in there,

1252
01:02:24,920 --> 01:02:28,640
Speaker 2: which ironically I won. So you guys are still winless

1253
01:02:28,680 --> 01:02:33,919
Speaker 2: backing Everton in the parlay specifically, so Jun joon Berlin

1254
01:02:33,920 --> 01:02:38,160
Speaker 2: plus two fifty at Augsburg. Not anything fancy about this matchup,

1255
01:02:38,320 --> 01:02:40,240
Speaker 2: but Augsburg is going to give you a ton of

1256
01:02:40,240 --> 01:02:42,400
Speaker 2: space to play a back and forth, counter attacking match.

1257
01:02:43,000 --> 01:02:46,200
Speaker 2: The defensive numbers had taken a real slide back down

1258
01:02:46,280 --> 01:02:48,400
Speaker 2: to what we saw the last couple of years. They've progressed.

1259
01:02:48,600 --> 01:02:50,280
Speaker 2: They had this you know, kind of moment in the

1260
01:02:50,400 --> 01:02:52,280
Speaker 2: sun in the first half of the season. We were like, oh,

1261
01:02:52,360 --> 01:02:56,320
Speaker 2: Augsburg might be intriguing. No, not really, still a bottom

1262
01:02:56,480 --> 01:03:00,480
Speaker 2: third team in Germany and really have Union rated better?

1263
01:03:00,560 --> 01:03:04,160
Speaker 2: So plus you fifty on the road Berlin in the Wundesliga.

1264
01:03:04,400 --> 01:03:08,080
Speaker 1: That comes in just over fifty nine to one parlay,

1265
01:03:08,200 --> 01:03:11,040
Speaker 1: So it feels like a good one. Feels like we're

1266
01:03:11,080 --> 01:03:14,800
Speaker 1: finally going to get the three legger for the first

1267
01:03:14,840 --> 01:03:16,000
Speaker 1: time the season, and.

1268
01:03:16,040 --> 01:03:18,800
Speaker 3: I like everything coming down to Everton is just the position.

1269
01:03:18,880 --> 01:03:22,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, Monday, Monday night under the lights perfect, the United.

1270
01:03:22,560 --> 01:03:24,880
Speaker 2: Blue second half leads for us last week, soah a

1271
01:03:25,000 --> 01:03:26,800
Speaker 2: United deserved Yeah, yeahead, but you know.

1272
01:03:26,840 --> 01:03:31,000
Speaker 1: Still uh yeah, we're sniffing around the edges. We're getting close,

1273
01:03:31,880 --> 01:03:34,760
Speaker 1: all right. That brings us to the end of the show.

1274
01:03:34,800 --> 01:03:37,400
Speaker 1: Our favorite bets for the upcoming Premier League match week

1275
01:03:37,440 --> 01:03:39,640
Speaker 1: should be a fun one. BJ what is your favorite

1276
01:03:39,640 --> 01:03:40,680
Speaker 1: bet in the EPL?

1277
01:03:40,960 --> 01:03:43,960
Speaker 3: Bournemouth team total over one and a half at minus

1278
01:03:44,040 --> 01:03:47,920
Speaker 3: one twenty against Manchester United. This Manchester United defense is

1279
01:03:48,120 --> 01:03:50,480
Speaker 3: a relegation fout of the defense and how they set

1280
01:03:50,560 --> 01:03:54,000
Speaker 3: up tactically actually favors Bournemouth really well. You know, if

1281
01:03:54,040 --> 01:03:56,120
Speaker 3: you want a mirror image of what this match is

1282
01:03:56,200 --> 01:03:58,120
Speaker 3: somewhat going to look like in terms of what Bournemouth

1283
01:03:58,160 --> 01:04:00,400
Speaker 3: can be in possession, go look at the Brent Brentford

1284
01:04:00,480 --> 01:04:02,520
Speaker 3: match that Manches United played when they have over thirty

1285
01:04:02,560 --> 01:04:05,040
Speaker 3: shots and over three expected goals. Because if you want

1286
01:04:05,040 --> 01:04:07,400
Speaker 3: to press to your front line and not come have

1287
01:04:07,520 --> 01:04:09,800
Speaker 3: your fullbacks eight in the press, well it's going to

1288
01:04:09,880 --> 01:04:12,720
Speaker 3: leave a ton of space outlide, which will allow Bournemouth

1289
01:04:12,800 --> 01:04:15,520
Speaker 3: to have a play their usual long balls out there

1290
01:04:15,600 --> 01:04:18,400
Speaker 3: and run at this United back line. Since the beginning

1291
01:04:18,440 --> 01:04:22,720
Speaker 3: of February, United is allowing twenty three point three shots

1292
01:04:22,760 --> 01:04:26,440
Speaker 3: per ninety minutes and two point four to five expected goals.

1293
01:04:26,680 --> 01:04:29,640
Speaker 3: So Bournemouth, who is a team that is very very

1294
01:04:29,640 --> 01:04:32,400
Speaker 3: good playing with their possession or in transition, as going

1295
01:04:32,440 --> 01:04:34,440
Speaker 3: to have many opportunities to score here, so I like

1296
01:04:34,520 --> 01:04:36,360
Speaker 3: them over one and a half goals in minus one twenty.

1297
01:04:36,720 --> 01:04:40,320
Speaker 1: Okay, Bournemouth team total over for you. I'm going to

1298
01:04:40,360 --> 01:04:43,320
Speaker 1: go with Crystal Palace on the first half money line.

1299
01:04:43,640 --> 01:04:45,640
Speaker 1: A seven to one shot here is my favorite bet.

1300
01:04:46,000 --> 01:04:49,040
Speaker 1: The Liverpool trend has been there all season with the

1301
01:04:49,080 --> 01:04:52,120
Speaker 1: way that they start matches. They were very, very lucky

1302
01:04:52,200 --> 01:04:55,320
Speaker 1: not to be down early against Sheffield United in the

1303
01:04:55,360 --> 01:04:57,720
Speaker 1: first minute of that game that was, and also at home,

1304
01:04:57,880 --> 01:04:59,680
Speaker 1: so it's not like this is something that you know

1305
01:04:59,800 --> 01:05:01,760
Speaker 1: just happens on the road. If you look at their

1306
01:05:01,800 --> 01:05:04,360
Speaker 1: splits over the first half on the season, they've gone

1307
01:05:05,040 --> 01:05:09,800
Speaker 1: to the break down five times. They've been drawn fifteen times,

1308
01:05:09,800 --> 01:05:11,360
Speaker 1: so that means it's more often than not that they

1309
01:05:11,400 --> 01:05:14,040
Speaker 1: are losing or drawn and I think that this Crystal

1310
01:05:14,080 --> 01:05:17,040
Speaker 1: Palace team should be set up to give them some

1311
01:05:17,280 --> 01:05:19,440
Speaker 1: trouble at least out of the gates. So I think

1312
01:05:19,480 --> 01:05:22,040
Speaker 1: it's seven to one. I'm happy to bend into this trench.

1313
01:05:22,240 --> 01:05:23,960
Speaker 1: I do think it's a thing We've seen it from

1314
01:05:24,040 --> 01:05:27,200
Speaker 1: these Clop teams in the past as well, especially in

1315
01:05:27,440 --> 01:05:30,800
Speaker 1: these high stakes environments. We'll never forget that Wolves Crazy Wolves,

1316
01:05:30,920 --> 01:05:33,960
Speaker 1: Liverpool City Villa Day from a couple of years ago.

1317
01:05:34,080 --> 01:05:36,360
Speaker 1: So I do think that at seven to one you're

1318
01:05:36,400 --> 01:05:40,840
Speaker 1: getting some decent value to shorten the game against Liverpool. Here, Anthony,

1319
01:05:41,000 --> 01:05:41,480
Speaker 1: what do you got?

1320
01:05:41,720 --> 01:05:45,000
Speaker 2: I'm going to go with Brighton Burnley under three minus

1321
01:05:45,040 --> 01:05:47,400
Speaker 2: one fifteen. We've seen time and time again that this

1322
01:05:47,440 --> 01:05:49,840
Speaker 2: Brighton attack has taken a real tumble in the second

1323
01:05:49,840 --> 01:05:51,560
Speaker 2: half of the season. I think the market is still

1324
01:05:51,600 --> 01:05:54,240
Speaker 2: adjusting for it, and also that Burnley is not as

1325
01:05:54,320 --> 01:05:57,760
Speaker 2: aggressive in both keeping possession and pressing others out of possession.

1326
01:05:57,760 --> 01:06:00,760
Speaker 2: They're playing much more traditionally like a bottom half team

1327
01:06:01,120 --> 01:06:02,919
Speaker 2: and as a result, this total is about a quarter

1328
01:06:03,000 --> 01:06:05,760
Speaker 2: goal too high. So under three for me at minus

1329
01:06:05,760 --> 01:06:08,040
Speaker 2: one fifteen is my favorite bet of the weekend in

1330
01:06:08,080 --> 01:06:08,840
Speaker 2: the prem All.

1331
01:06:08,800 --> 01:06:11,840
Speaker 1: Right, do you have it? Another week of wonder goal

1332
01:06:11,920 --> 01:06:14,240
Speaker 1: in the books. We'll be back on Sunday evening to

1333
01:06:14,360 --> 01:06:18,400
Speaker 1: record for the second legs of the Champions Legue quarter finals.

1334
01:06:18,440 --> 01:06:20,680
Speaker 1: To look for that in your feed overnight Sunday into

1335
01:06:20,720 --> 01:06:22,880
Speaker 1: Monday morning, But until then, best of luck with all

1336
01:06:22,880 --> 01:06:26,080
Speaker 1: your bets in the Premier League this weekend. For Anthony

1337
01:06:26,120 --> 01:06:28,600
Speaker 1: and BJ Michael, thank you to our sponsor's bet three

1338
01:06:28,600 --> 01:06:30,600
Speaker 1: six five and our producer Noah for all the hard

1339
01:06:30,640 --> 01:06:31,560
Speaker 1: work and the back end.

1340
01:06:38,360 --> 01:06:42,880
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1341
01:06:42,920 --> 01:06:45,720
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1342
01:06:45,720 --> 01:06:48,800
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler