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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Spreading the corn ten seconds of a days just go

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Speaker 1: show under the basket, Under the basket, it's the truth

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Speaker 1: for the wind.

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Speaker 3: God, they go amarracle. I'm just'sup the water.

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Speaker 2: Hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 3: Shuck it all. It's college basketball. It's not the size

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Speaker 3: on the dog in the fight, it's the size of

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Speaker 3: the fight in the dog. What's up the generation? Welcome

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Speaker 3: to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. This is the

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Speaker 3: Sweet Sixteen Betting Preview, Part two. Today we are going

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Speaker 3: to cover all four Friday Sweet sixteen games. I'm stucky

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Speaker 3: in joining me for this episode. My partner in crime

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Speaker 3: for college football, Colin Wilson, and my coll basketball compoders

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Speaker 3: during the regular season, Mike Calbury's and BJ Cunningham. Mike,

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Speaker 3: I know you got a couple live futures available, Unlike

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Speaker 3: myself lost not on my two on the first day,

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Speaker 3: so you got to be pretty excited for what the

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Speaker 3: fields looking like.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, with the Arizona, Gonzaga and Kansas, I'm in a

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Speaker 1: pretty good spot, although I don't know quite how to

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Speaker 1: read the The near miss in round thirty two what

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Speaker 1: that does to the energy of a one seed. Usually

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Speaker 1: I'm not holding tickets on teams this, you know, high

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Speaker 1: up the seeding ladder. But I'm feeling pretty good about it.

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Speaker 1: And as you mentioned before, I call that the road

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Speaker 1: for Kansas right now, knock on wood, is looking real

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Speaker 1: nice because if they end up running into either Iowa

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Speaker 1: State or Miami, that's two potential matchups that also favor

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Speaker 1: them on the road to the final four.

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Speaker 2: So feeling pretty good.

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Speaker 3: Well, Pja, I'll go to you last because you don't

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Speaker 3: like me. You know, your Hawkeyes are gone. My Cats

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Speaker 3: are gonna go to you because you have your team

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Speaker 3: in the sweet sixteen up against it. Spread wise, not

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Speaker 3: many people are giving you a chance. But are you

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Speaker 3: excited as getting nervous yet or there's just like no

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Speaker 3: expectations and you can kind of watch freely because it's

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Speaker 3: either all right, I think we're gonna lose and if

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Speaker 3: we win, great, So there's really a nice place to be.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and I feel like the team. I shouldn't speak

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Speaker 4: for the team, but I mean I follow there every

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Speaker 4: step from getting on the plane. Everybody's wearing Giants and

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Speaker 4: A's hats and Sharks jerseys, and like it's, oh, we're

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Speaker 4: going to the Bay, Bay Hogs, Bay Hogs, Muscleman's going

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Speaker 4: back to his old NBA stomping grounds. It's this great,

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Speaker 4: you know, trip back to the Bay. I got news

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Speaker 4: for you. We got a team that you know is

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Speaker 4: essentially as long as the equator, that is going to

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Speaker 4: shut down any kind of shot that we try to

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Speaker 4: take from anywhere. So it feels like there's sort of

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Speaker 4: a celebration that we've made the Sweet sixteen. I don't

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Speaker 4: see the hunger that we kind of had last year.

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Speaker 4: And so yeah, you know, I bought eight and a

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Speaker 4: half on Open or it's up to nine and a half.

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Speaker 4: I think this thing closes ten ten and a half.

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Speaker 4: And you and I talked about it. There has to

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Speaker 4: be a perfect formula for argans out of the chance here.

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Speaker 4: And you know, speaking of futures, for those of you

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Speaker 4: you know that have seen on the Action app, I

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Speaker 4: know somebody pointed out to me, Yeah, I only had

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Speaker 4: like three futures this here, Gonzaga, Texas Tech, and Arkansas.

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Speaker 4: And the good news is I think one of them

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Speaker 4: is gonna make the final four. The bad news is, man,

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Speaker 4: that seeding kind of killed me. There.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the old luck of the bracket didn't help you

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Speaker 3: out in that case. By the way, Mike, you mentioned

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Speaker 3: one seed that struggled in around a thirty two twenty

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Speaker 3: two previous one seeds have won their second round game

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Speaker 3: by five or fewer. Since twenty ten, they are one

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Speaker 3: and four against the spread in the sweet sixteen. The

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Speaker 3: last two duke in Kansas twenty nineteen to twenty two

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Speaker 3: one by two and four. Since nineteen eighty five, fifteen

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Speaker 3: of the twenty two to one out right, but only

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Speaker 3: ten covereds. They went ten and twelve against the spread.

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Speaker 3: For what it's worth, BJ no hawkeys And look I

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Speaker 3: was I was even getting excited to potentially watch the

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Speaker 3: Iowa women the most explosive player, and then she they

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Speaker 3: got big, got buzzer beat. We couln't get any buzzer

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Speaker 3: beaters in the men's side, and they got to I

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Speaker 3: think we got like a close to buzzer beater with

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Speaker 3: Creighton beat Iowa. So tough, tough weekend for Iowa fans.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you know what it hurts Even worse is the

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Speaker 5: the Creighton player who hit the three pointer to go

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Speaker 5: up one was an Iowa transfer that went to crazy

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Speaker 5: just a big time dagger, and then we missed three

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Speaker 5: bunnies at the end to lose and go out as

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Speaker 5: a two seed. Yeah, it's it hurts because, especially with

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Speaker 5: the Iowa men, still haven't made the Sweet sixteen in

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Speaker 5: my lifetime.

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Speaker 6: So Colin, really.

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Speaker 5: Soak in that Sweet sixteen because if you're like me,

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Speaker 5: it might never come in my lifetime. So but you

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Speaker 5: know what, it's all right, I have one future left.

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Speaker 5: It's Villanova twenty five to one. It's not looking that great,

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Speaker 5: but who knows. Crazier things have happened.

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Speaker 4: Well, I to tag onto that Sweet sixteen. I just

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Speaker 4: want to let everybody know we have signed two five stars,

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Speaker 4: we have two four stars. There's another five star considering

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Speaker 4: us or Gonzaga.

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Speaker 2: We'll be right back here next year.

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Speaker 6: Well, we had a top five pick, so anything could happened.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to the games. We got

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Speaker 3: four games that cover. We're gonna go in chronological order,

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Speaker 3: and we actually have. It wasn't a ton of upsets

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Speaker 3: in the first rounds, but all the biggest ones that

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Speaker 3: are playing tonight, you have a lot of chalk matchups.

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Speaker 3: It's from a seating perspective that happened on Thursday out

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Speaker 3: of short spreads. Not the case in two of the matchups.

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Speaker 6: Here.

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Speaker 3: We have a ten versus eleven and that we'll get

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Speaker 3: to later in Miami Iowa State, but we'll start off

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Speaker 3: with a fifteen seed in Saint Peter's knocked off Kentucky

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Speaker 3: to knocked off Murray State. These boys have no respect

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Speaker 3: for the state of Kentucky. Fifteen seed Saint Peter's. I

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Speaker 3: think it is like nineteen four and two against the

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Speaker 3: spread or something like that in this calendar year, just

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Speaker 3: covering machines taking on the three seed perdueh is a

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Speaker 3: twelve and a half point favorite here over under one

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Speaker 3: thirty six. For what it's worth, this is the third

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Speaker 3: fifteen seed in the history of the tournaments. It's expansion

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Speaker 3: in ninety five to make the Sweet sixteen. The previous

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Speaker 3: two Dunk City nine years ago and Oral Roberts last year.

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Speaker 3: Neither one both did cover for what it's worth, and

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Speaker 3: since expansion, there have been twenty underdogs of at least

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Speaker 3: twelve points in the Sweet sixteen. Only one of those

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Speaker 3: twelve went out right Indiana Well plus thirteen over Duke

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Speaker 3: in two thousand and two. The only other two that

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Speaker 3: lost by single digits were Arkansas against North Carolina and

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Speaker 3: George Washington versus Michigan, which were both came in nineteen

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Speaker 3: ninety three, which means that of the twenty underdogs of

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Speaker 3: at least twelve or more in the sweet sixteen, what

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Speaker 3: the we have? One, two, three? It looks like like

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Speaker 3: sixteen out of the twenty I've won by double digits. No,

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Speaker 3: you win by ten or eleven and not cover, So

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Speaker 3: it hasn't gone that well. But the last two fifteen

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Speaker 3: seats have managed to cover. In this spot, Mike, I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna throw it to you first, and I'll set this

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Speaker 3: up by saying the one thing that I'm worried about

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Speaker 3: with for Saint Peter's here is fouls. If you watch

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Speaker 3: that Purdue game against Texas, it was a little outrageous.

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Speaker 3: They went to the line of forty five times. I

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Speaker 3: think it was the largest foul free throw discrepancy for

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Speaker 3: a team that shot that many in any d one

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Speaker 3: game in like three years. So a little crazy. But

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Speaker 3: Purdue gets to the line a ton because of their size,

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Speaker 3: and they also don't foul, and they're going against Peter's

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Speaker 3: team that relies on getting the line and that fouls

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Speaker 3: a ton. They're three hundred and forty eighth and foul rate,

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Speaker 3: So if you don't like free throw shooting contest, you

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Speaker 3: might want to avoid this one. And Peter's better hope

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Speaker 3: that this isn't called super Tight because Produce doesn't foul,

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Speaker 3: they don't pressure you, and Peter's fouls lout and due

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Speaker 3: draws a lot of fouls, so that could end up

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Speaker 3: being really bad news for Peters depending on how this

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Speaker 3: gets whistled. But tell me what you think about this

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Speaker 3: game when you first took a look.

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Speaker 1: So, as you know, I went to Loyal Maryland and

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Speaker 1: at the time when I was there, we were part

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Speaker 1: of the MAC. So I'm going to say some nice

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Speaker 1: things about one of our former fellow met.

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Speaker 3: Have you ever been to Run Baby Run Jim. I

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Speaker 3: don't know if that's a new name or not.

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Speaker 1: I believe it's a new name. I've not been to

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Speaker 1: the illustrious Run Baby Run Jim in Jersey City. But

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Speaker 1: I'm going to say some nice things.

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Speaker 2: First.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a great story that Peacock TV sent

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Speaker 1: the Saint Peter's cheerleaders to the Rent.

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Speaker 3: Afford to go to the first two. First game, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: that just that just.

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Speaker 1: Seems like almost one of those things like that happens

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Speaker 1: in the Olympics from time to time where it's a

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Speaker 1: country you haven't heard of and they send the one

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Speaker 1: guy you know to be in the archery competition and

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Speaker 1: he has to book his own flight kind of think like,

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Speaker 1: come on, this is March madness, Like everybody should get

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Speaker 1: to go. It's your one opportunity to you know, show

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Speaker 1: out for your school. So I think that's a great

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Speaker 1: story that Peacock TV stepped up on behalf of the Peacocks.

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Speaker 1: And then, as you mentioned, I mean Saint Pete's on

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Speaker 1: an incredible defensive heater. Eight of their last nine they've

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Speaker 1: helt teams of sixty five or fewer. They don't give

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Speaker 1: up easy looks. We can get into shot quality. They're

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Speaker 1: twenty second nationally in defensive shot selection, and then it

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Speaker 1: just in terms of what they're up against here though,

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Speaker 1: like once you start to switch gears, it starts to

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Speaker 1: go off the rails a little bit for me, and

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Speaker 1: I appreciate you setting up everything through the historic president

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Speaker 1: of a fifteen seed making it of a double you know,

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Speaker 1: double digit underdog catching so many points here in Sweet sixteen.

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Speaker 1: But there's just too much for me to like with

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Speaker 1: this Purdue team, and they have burned me at times

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Speaker 1: and kind of play down to their competition. But this

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Speaker 1: is the number two offense according to shot quality. They

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Speaker 1: have the ability to hurt Saint Pete's in the in

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Speaker 1: both transition and in the post, obviously with their size,

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Speaker 1: and then once they've built up that lead because they

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Speaker 1: can play, you know, not necessarily an aggresive defense where

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Speaker 1: their fouling, but having so many bigs on the floor

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Speaker 1: that they have that advantage. Saint Pete's is one of

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Speaker 1: the worst shooting teams in the country on two point

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Speaker 1: shots forty six point one percent on two pointers. That's

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Speaker 1: three hundred and thirteenth nationally.

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Speaker 2: So I think what's going.

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Speaker 1: To happen is, as you laid out, Purdue is going

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Speaker 1: to attack, They're going to get to the line, and

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Speaker 1: they're going to be able to withstand that pressure. Like

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Speaker 1: you know, Saint Pete's is going to continually to go

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Speaker 1: inside to drive. But I don't think they're going to convert.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to be very effective at

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Speaker 1: the rim. And this is one of those stories that

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Speaker 1: I just foresee, you know, kind of ending ugly, and

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Speaker 1: you know America's team as of right now is going

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Speaker 1: to go down. And that's fine. I think, honestly, this

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Speaker 1: is a great get for the MAC Conference that was

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Speaker 1: really kind of hitching their wagon into Patino and Iona,

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Speaker 1: and I think everybody was a little disappointed when they

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Speaker 1: got booted in the quarterfinals because they seemed like a

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Speaker 1: team that maybe, if everything went right, could get to

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Speaker 1: the Sweet sixteen. But here we are with Saint Pete's

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Speaker 1: and I don't know, I'm just all over the boiler

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Speaker 1: Makers here are gonna take him first half and minus

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Speaker 1: the twelve and a half of the game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, produced generally a good favorite this crew team in

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Speaker 3: the back. He saw it against Yale because these mid majors,

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Speaker 3: they just don't have the size, right, they just don't

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Speaker 3: have any like Saint Peter's has. If you look at

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Speaker 3: their numbers. Elite rim defense, Casey Defin is an incredible

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Speaker 3: rim precord, but he's not He's going against like seven

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Speaker 3: footers here. It's a different story. You could take a

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Speaker 3: look at the Saint Peter's rim defense and they take

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Speaker 3: a look at that Kentucky game. Oscar she way went bananas.

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Speaker 3: He is the only one who showed up for Kentucky.

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Speaker 3: I mean, and at Chaquate had it was like a

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Speaker 3: twenty point Kentucky win, which is crazy. They just missed

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Speaker 3: every three Saint Peter's of the shooting game of their life.

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Speaker 3: But what did she I have? Thirty and sixteen, So,

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's not like the rim defense did much.

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Speaker 3: And now you're going up against you know, some of

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Speaker 3: the other best bigs in the country and yees, Saint

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Speaker 3: Peter's their path to offense because the offense is ugly,

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Speaker 3: you know, unless they're just hitting crazy shots, which you

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Speaker 3: can which can happen on any given night, but generally speaking,

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Speaker 3: that doesn't happen with Saint Peter's. Is getting to the line, Well,

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Speaker 3: Purdue doesn't fail. They are They have the six lowest

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Speaker 3: foul rate in the country and Peters likes to get

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Speaker 3: on the offensive glass. They're sixty fourth in the country

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Speaker 3: in that aspect. Well, produce thirty third nationally defensive rebounding.

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Speaker 3: So where are the points coming from for Saint Peter's

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Speaker 3: Because you know, Purdue arguably is the best offense in

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Speaker 3: the country. You know, Purdue is gonna get their points.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I think that the only way that Peter

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Speaker 3: I could see Peter's potentially pulling this off. Number one,

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Speaker 3: they have to just hit crazy shots, right, They just

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Speaker 3: have to go put an as for three. That's the

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Speaker 3: great equalizer. They have to have this dot called tight right, like,

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Speaker 3: they can't get in foul trouble. They pressure, so they

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Speaker 3: have extended pressure. They're going to press. They have to

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Speaker 3: be able to turn predue over and then the refs

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Speaker 3: just have to like swallow their whistle and they're able

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Speaker 3: to like hack steals and then they have to help

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Speaker 3: Purdue as a bad shooting line. But that's a lot

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Speaker 3: to ask for. So I agree, it seems like the

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Speaker 3: run's going to end here, but maybe there's more magic left. BJ.

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Speaker 3: What are your thoughts here? Any interest in backing Peacock Nation? Uh?

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Speaker 5: Not really.

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Speaker 6: I agree.

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Speaker 5: I generally agree with you guys that if I had

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Speaker 5: laid anything, it would be with Purdue. The thing about

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Speaker 5: Saint Peter's is you mentioned at the rim they attack

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Speaker 5: the room at the highest frequency of anybody in the country,

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Speaker 5: but they're really inefficient in doing so. And Mike mentioned it,

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Speaker 5: you know, forty six percent from two point range is

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Speaker 5: really bad. Well against Kentucky zero point eighty three points

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Speaker 5: per possession at the ram one point zero four against

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Speaker 5: Murray State.

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Speaker 6: You mentioned Entucky.

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Speaker 5: Basically, the what they have to do is they got

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Speaker 5: to be able to score at the rim, which they're

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Speaker 5: really not going to be able to do effectively against Purdue.

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Speaker 5: And they got to get to the free throw line,

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Speaker 5: which they're also not gonna be able to do quite

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Speaker 5: a bit. And the great equalizer against Kentucky, well, just

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Speaker 5: like you said, they just went berserk from three and

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Speaker 5: they are a top ten team in the nation in

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Speaker 5: terms of efficiency on catch and shoot three pointers. And

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Speaker 5: Purdue is, you know, average at defending the three point line,

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Speaker 5: so who knows. But at that same token, Saint Peter's

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Speaker 5: two hundred and forty seven in defending post upsets, which

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Speaker 5: is a real problem against the second highest frequency post

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Speaker 5: up team in the entire country.

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Speaker 2: So I agree with you.

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Speaker 5: I mean, Purdue has massive advantages inside.

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Speaker 4: Colin Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna go with the over

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Speaker 4: here in this game. I mean, I think the spread

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Speaker 4: is at twelve and a half. It just seems like

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Speaker 4: there's a lot of college basketball games when they get

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Speaker 4: out of hand. It comes down to a team trying

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Speaker 4: to get in within three possessions and then they lose

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Speaker 4: that lead. So it's always like fifteen to nine, fifteen

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Speaker 4: to nine, and twelve and a half is right there

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Speaker 4: in the middle. I'm going to avoid that and I'm

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Speaker 4: gonna lean into an over here. You know, Ken Palm

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Speaker 4: projects one thirty six. I think Shot Quality Projects one

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Speaker 4: thirty seven. But really it comes down to the free

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Speaker 4: throw rates. When you look at Saint Peter's, you know,

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Speaker 4: three hundred and forty fourth in defensive foul rate, I mean,

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Speaker 4: Perdue's gonna be at the line all day, you know.

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Speaker 4: And if you look at Wins, I mean, Ivy's been

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Speaker 4: fantastic from the free throw line when they have won

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Speaker 4: the game. But usually you know, their free throw shooter

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Speaker 4: is Sasra Stefanovic, who's you know, eighty seven percent on

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Speaker 4: the year. So they're gonna hit almost every free throw

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Speaker 4: that they get that is points.

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Speaker 2: It's going up on the board while the clock has stopped.

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Speaker 4: And you know, BJ mentioned that catch and shoot threes

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Speaker 4: is the way that they're gonna go. But another way

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Speaker 4: that they can go to is Saint Peter's does have

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Speaker 4: a pretty good advantage in running screens. Uh, you know,

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Speaker 4: they're twelveth inefficiency and produce one hundred and forty first

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Speaker 4: in defending screens. So it's just a matter if the

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Speaker 4: ball is going down. Murray State twenty three percent from three,

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Speaker 4: Kentucky fifty two percent from three. So there's just there's

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Speaker 4: too much variance for me to back Saint Peter's.

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Speaker 2: At twelve and a half. Even in a live number.

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Speaker 4: Of like you know, fifteen or sixteen, I still can't

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Speaker 4: get there. So I think for me, slow paced game,

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Speaker 4: but there's gonna be a ton of fouls, and especially

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Speaker 4: when it gets down into crunch time in Saint Peter's

332
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Speaker 4: is kind of grasp and straws. There's gonna be a

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Speaker 4: lot of free throws and and Purdue's gonna hit all

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Speaker 4: of them. Saint Peter's can hit their free throws too,

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Speaker 4: if they ever get to the line. So I'm gonna

336
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Speaker 4: taken over here. But the market has gone down to

337
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Speaker 4: one thirty five and it's paused, so I'm waiting to

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Speaker 4: see what the next move is. Uh, if we get

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Speaker 4: any kind of push to the over. One thirty five

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Speaker 4: is where we got to buy.

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Speaker 6: One thing I'll mention really quick.

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Speaker 5: Saint Peter's they run this, and it's occasionally they'll run

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Speaker 5: this five out back cutting offense that if you're not

344
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Speaker 5: ready for it, they can burn you a few times.

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Speaker 5: That happened to Kentucky and having to Maury State a

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Speaker 5: few too many times. And that's going to be interesting

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Speaker 5: if they want to keep zach Edy and travi On

348
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Speaker 5: Williams on the floor, if they're pushing those guys out

349
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Speaker 5: from outside the paint and just back cutting them to death.

350
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Speaker 6: So that is one area that I.

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Speaker 5: Think Saint Peter's may be able to have some success,

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Speaker 5: but again they're probably produced probably what they've done pretty

353
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Speaker 5: much all seasons, just keep Eadie on the floor, regardless

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Speaker 5: of size advantages here or there, even if he's a

355
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Speaker 5: defensive liability on the other end of the floor.

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Speaker 6: So Saint Peter's might have a chance there.

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Speaker 5: But other than that, yeah, it's it's probably going to

358
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Speaker 5: be a Purdue cruising to a win.

359
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Speaker 3: Yeah, And that could lend itself to an over that happens,

360
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Speaker 3: because it would just be a Purdue lay up drill

361
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Speaker 3: and then you would think Peters will be playing faster

362
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Speaker 3: and not getting any rebounds, but maybe get some back

363
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Speaker 3: cuts and the threes and some mismatches, so I think

364
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Speaker 3: that would help your over. The only fear with the

365
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Speaker 3: over is if it just is a complete flow out

366
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Speaker 3: and die is late. But yeah, I don't mind you

367
00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:04,520
Speaker 3: or I lean perdue as well as of right now,

368
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Speaker 3: this is a pass for me. All right, Let's move

369
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Speaker 3: on to three. The three other games on Friday night

370
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Speaker 3: with closer spreads. Start with the second game, seven twenty

371
00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:19,760
Speaker 3: nine Eastern on TBS. Wow, that Peter's getting CBS again

372
00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:21,840
Speaker 3: because it's supposed to be It is supposed to be Kentucky.

373
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Speaker 3: Peters is now just the CBS team.

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Speaker 4: Throwing an nbc'space, Like, what's going on here?

375
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Speaker 2: We got the beacock? What is that?

376
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Speaker 3: Friday, seven twenty nine Eastern TBS. Providence the four seed

377
00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,480
Speaker 3: against Kansas to one seed. We have chalk here, Kansas

378
00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:39,800
Speaker 3: seven and a half point favorite over under one forty

379
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Speaker 3: one and a half. I'm actually leaning Providence here. I

380
00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:45,080
Speaker 3: think I'm gonna end up playing products. I think Kansas

381
00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:47,080
Speaker 3: is gonna win this game. I think Providence is feisty

382
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Speaker 3: enough to cover. I mean, Kansas is. They're path to

383
00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:52,240
Speaker 3: the Final four is incredible, and I think that they

384
00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:53,880
Speaker 3: could play an up and down game with like Arizona

385
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,560
Speaker 3: if Arizona gets there and potentially win that game. They're

386
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Speaker 3: awesome in transition. It's one thing I worry about in

387
00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:03,360
Speaker 3: this game. Shots aren't falling Kansas, who's incredible in transition,

388
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Speaker 3: just all of their guards and now you're adding Remy

389
00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:08,360
Speaker 3: Martin in there. They just can't be stopped in transition.

390
00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:12,560
Speaker 3: And that's Providence's weakness. They are a horrific transition defense.

391
00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:14,800
Speaker 3: So if the shots aren't falling, it's just like a

392
00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:16,960
Speaker 3: double edged It's like, all right, now Kansas is getting

393
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Speaker 3: down the court, but I think Providence can keep this close.

394
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Speaker 3: I think that in Kansas gets like tougher teams. That

395
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Speaker 3: just something that's a little off. Is an older Providence

396
00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:27,600
Speaker 3: team playing with a lot of confidence. They're just making

397
00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:30,480
Speaker 3: shots right now. I think they're feisty enough to cover

398
00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:33,680
Speaker 3: this number. I don't think they win, but I'm looking

399
00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:35,399
Speaker 3: at the friars here. Mike, I'll go to you. I

400
00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,040
Speaker 3: know you have a Kansas future. Are you worried about

401
00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:40,160
Speaker 3: Providence at all? You're worried about some of the voodoo,

402
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,879
Speaker 3: or do you think Kansas can win this comfortably. How

403
00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:45,840
Speaker 3: to be a little concerning that, like a very undermanned

404
00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:48,359
Speaker 3: creating team. Man, that got scary for a while. What

405
00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:48,960
Speaker 3: do you see here?

406
00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:52,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, the way I set this up, it's almost like

407
00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:54,920
Speaker 1: when you have the winning hands after four cards and

408
00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:57,520
Speaker 1: hold them and you're waiting for that river. The opponent

409
00:17:57,800 --> 00:17:59,480
Speaker 1: in this spot just has a lot of outs, and

410
00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:03,679
Speaker 1: by that I'm between buying them Durham, Reeves, Horcheler. I mean,

411
00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,200
Speaker 1: if he gets hot from three. They don't necessarily need

412
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:08,480
Speaker 1: one guy to go bananas.

413
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:08,800
Speaker 6: To win this game.

414
00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,560
Speaker 1: They can piece meal it together. They can at different

415
00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:13,399
Speaker 1: elements of the game like you saw it in that

416
00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,040
Speaker 1: I think there was a triple overtime thriller against Savior

417
00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:18,480
Speaker 1: where everybody filed out and they're like buying them. You

418
00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:20,840
Speaker 1: need to go full iverson the rest of the game.

419
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:23,080
Speaker 1: Every possession runs through you, and he did it. So

420
00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:26,080
Speaker 1: to me, what that proves is by virtue of being

421
00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:29,960
Speaker 1: a veteran team, by having a tremendous coach in Cooley,

422
00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:32,920
Speaker 1: being able to dial up different plays for different players,

423
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:35,480
Speaker 1: like I can just see lots of different outs for

424
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:38,360
Speaker 1: them hanging around in this game, not necessarily winning out

425
00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:40,119
Speaker 1: right I don't have quite that fear, but I think

426
00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:41,680
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I'm gonna go ahead and take them

427
00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,040
Speaker 1: as a little insurance policy on my Kansas ticket plus

428
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,600
Speaker 1: seven and a half, and I wouldn't be surprised if

429
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,800
Speaker 1: they can avoid all those transition buckets that Kansas wants

430
00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:52,400
Speaker 1: to push, if they turn it into that grinder kind

431
00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:55,320
Speaker 1: of more traditional Big East half court game, I think

432
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:56,080
Speaker 1: that plays.

433
00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:56,399
Speaker 2: In their favor.

434
00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:59,760
Speaker 1: And honestly, you know, when it comes to Kansas everything,

435
00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:02,240
Speaker 1: for we talked about this like two months ago. For me,

436
00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:05,520
Speaker 1: it's Jalen Wilson and David McCormick, like they are the

437
00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:09,000
Speaker 1: special players here. And Wilson goes for fourteen and fourteen

438
00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 1: last game against Creighton. You go back two or three

439
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:14,520
Speaker 1: games McCormick, you know, eighteen and eleven against Texas Tech.

440
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,000
Speaker 1: When either of those guys give a special performance, when

441
00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:19,760
Speaker 1: they're all over the floor being stat sheet stuffers, this

442
00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:23,280
Speaker 1: team goes from really good to elite. And I think

443
00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:25,520
Speaker 1: in this game, the chances are one of those two

444
00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:27,359
Speaker 1: will be able to chip it in. But the number

445
00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:29,800
Speaker 1: I think is just priced to go ahead and play Providence.

446
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, because probably this is a pace class Kansas wants

447
00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:35,200
Speaker 3: to play fast and Province wants to grind it down

448
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 3: and play so, which I think that they'll be able

449
00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:39,240
Speaker 3: to do. Except the only thing I word about it

450
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,199
Speaker 3: is they just can't have a terrible shooting night like

451
00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,720
Speaker 3: from three, because then you're gonna have long rebounds and

452
00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,760
Speaker 3: then Kansas is gonna be running. So that's that's the

453
00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:48,919
Speaker 3: one concerned to have, is they're just if they you know,

454
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,880
Speaker 3: they have like a three for nineteen day from three,

455
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:53,439
Speaker 3: it's gonna be hard to stay in it, not only

456
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:56,200
Speaker 3: because you're shooting three for nineteen from three, but those

457
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,439
Speaker 3: generally are gonna lead to Kansas just taking off the

458
00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 3: other way. But I do think it general Providence is

459
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:04,200
Speaker 3: going to slow this one down, which does work in

460
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:08,440
Speaker 3: their favor because Kansas is just deadly when you're playing fast. Yeah,

461
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:10,399
Speaker 3: I'm definitely gonna be on Providence here. I've wrote them

462
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:13,160
Speaker 3: the first two games of the tournament, and I'm doing

463
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 3: it again. I didn't think that I would be betting

464
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,200
Speaker 3: Providence three straight games in the tournament if you told

465
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:18,960
Speaker 3: me that a month ago in Kentucky would have lost

466
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 3: the Saint Feeders. But here we are with the mad

467
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:24,760
Speaker 3: and this bj are you itching to fade Providence.

468
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:28,440
Speaker 5: Still, No, I'm just really done with both of these teams. Providence,

469
00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 5: I mean, they just have this unbelievable ability for opposing

470
00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:34,320
Speaker 5: teams to just never make any shots against them.

471
00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,879
Speaker 6: It's truly truly unbelievable to watch.

472
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,119
Speaker 5: So I mean you mentioned, I mean five were to

473
00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:42,680
Speaker 5: play this, I'd lean Kansas because of the transition numbers,

474
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,520
Speaker 5: but apparently, you know, nobody can exploit Providence in transition,

475
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 5: So I will ultimately be passing Kansas again, Like perfect

476
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,440
Speaker 5: blowout spot for them against a really shorthanded Creton team

477
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 5: and they just let them hang around for the entire game.

478
00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:00,840
Speaker 5: Really didn't look that good. So I mean, I agree

479
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 5: with you guys. I mean, Providence can definitely hang in

480
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,959
Speaker 5: this game and probably win and end up with you know,

481
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,320
Speaker 5: a Kansas twenty points shot quality win. But you know,

482
00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,879
Speaker 5: for me, I will ultimately passing because I'm just tired

483
00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:14,359
Speaker 5: of both these teams, and.

484
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 1: Kansas has done that time and time again, playing down

485
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:17,920
Speaker 1: not just the creating game.

486
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of a lot of blowout spots where

487
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:22,640
Speaker 3: they just I was like, and I don't know exactly what,

488
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 3: there's no like there that killer instinct there. They don't.

489
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 3: They don't put the runs on them like like a

490
00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:30,440
Speaker 3: vintage like top tier Kansas seems like when they played TCU,

491
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:33,359
Speaker 3: they lost at TCU handily. They played them the next

492
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:35,920
Speaker 3: game in Allen Fieldals for the Big it needed to

493
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:39,000
Speaker 3: win for the Big twelve title and Mike Miles in

494
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:41,240
Speaker 3: Massive Faul Trouble and that game goes right down to

495
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,400
Speaker 3: the wire and they can't put TCU away. I think

496
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 3: tc has never even won there. And then their program history.

497
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:47,720
Speaker 3: So yeah, there's a couple of just games where I'm

498
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 3: like this Kannasy just doesn't put teams wet. So I

499
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 3: think they'll find a way. Bagi will make some plays

500
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,679
Speaker 3: late and Brown hit a couple of clutch threes, but

501
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 3: I don't know. I think I think Providence hangs around

502
00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 3: and UH gets one last cover to piss their faders

503
00:21:59,880 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 3: off off. Colin, what are you thinking there?

504
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:02,160
Speaker 2: Yeah?

505
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 4: I mean this was a game. You and I talked

506
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,080
Speaker 4: about it when we record on Sunday night. I said, I,

507
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:07,880
Speaker 4: where's the lining to go? Are We're going to get

508
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 4: sevens out there for Kansas? And sure enough, we've got

509
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,640
Speaker 4: a couple of books out there that are posting sevens

510
00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,680
Speaker 4: and you can't mathematically look at the analytics and then

511
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 4: make a case for Providence in this game. Shot Quality

512
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 4: thinks this game should be twelve in favor of King

513
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:22,400
Speaker 4: shot Lin.

514
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:23,640
Speaker 3: Does I think it should be seventeen?

515
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:24,919
Speaker 2: Yeah?

516
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 4: You never know, right, But I mean when I saw

517
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:28,719
Speaker 4: that number, I said, well, how does you know? How

518
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:30,439
Speaker 4: did they make it so high here? And when you

519
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 4: break down some of the numbers, Providence has to do

520
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 4: whatever they can to stay out of transition because that's

521
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 4: where Kansas just has a ton of advantages. So if

522
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 4: Providence is able to keep it out of transition, then

523
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 4: I really like the under here. So I think one

524
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 4: hundred and forty one and a half maybe want to

525
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,440
Speaker 4: go underneath that. If they're able to slow this down

526
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:48,640
Speaker 4: and keep Kansas from going up and down the court,

527
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 4: and like like Mike said, I mean they play at

528
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:53,639
Speaker 4: the level or competition, Well, maybe they're going to go

529
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 4: slow here. But Kansas has a lot of advantages. I

530
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 4: mean their top forty and offensive rebound rate, they have

531
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,120
Speaker 4: a better effecive field goal percent from inside the art,

532
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 4: and you know, if they happen to get out of transition,

533
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 4: they can work on the offensive boards. I mean, there's

534
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:10,160
Speaker 4: gonna be a ton of second chance points when Providence

535
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 4: is on the defensive, you know, defensive glass.

536
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:14,879
Speaker 2: I mean that they're three hundred and twelveth.

537
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,359
Speaker 4: So I can't really find many advantages for Providence on

538
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 4: the offensive side. So I think they're going to try

539
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,439
Speaker 4: to slow it down, grind it up, and I think

540
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 4: Kansas will play to their level. I'm going to do

541
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 4: an under here, but as far as taking aside, I'm

542
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,159
Speaker 4: not sure. I mean, we talk about this in college football.

543
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 4: There just some teams have horseshoes up their ass. You

544
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:33,399
Speaker 4: gotta quit looking at the Excel sheet, pull back and

545
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 4: realize what's going on. I think that's what Providence is.

546
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna ride with the under and we'll see

547
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 4: what I do with the side. Probably up until tip off,

548
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 4: I'm not sure.

549
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 3: Probably is broken truck quality. All right, let's move on

550
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 3: to the late night games. We'll start with probably the

551
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 3: game of the night, North Carolina and UCLA. North Carolina

552
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,159
Speaker 3: the eighth seed UCLA the four seed UCLA two to

553
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,200
Speaker 3: two and a half point favorite. Ever under one forty

554
00:23:56,240 --> 00:24:00,119
Speaker 3: one and a half, North Carolina survived that Baylor are

555
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,680
Speaker 3: almost incredible comeback they would have twenty five at ten

556
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 3: to go, Mannic got thrown out Carol. Thankfully it's not

557
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 3: college football, so Mannica doesn't have to sit out the

558
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 3: first half here.

559
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 4: He did do a walk of shame, though, he did

560
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:11,400
Speaker 4: have a walk.

561
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 3: Of shame, and then yeah, they survived. That would have

562
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 3: been the biggest comeback in NCAA tournament history. With a

563
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 3: TIDYU I think came back from twenty five. Also in

564
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,119
Speaker 3: a first four game two and a half one favor you.

565
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 3: So I looked really good against Saint Mary's Colin. I

566
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,119
Speaker 3: think you and I now disagree with this game. I

567
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 3: was in the UCLA for their defense, their experience, the

568
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 3: coaching advantage here with time, the prep I dug into

569
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 3: this game. I think I'm leaning towards the heels, but

570
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 3: I want you to make your case before I make mine.

571
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I'm all about UCLA. I'm not backing

572
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,120
Speaker 4: off what I said on the podcast the other night,

573
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 4: like I've been in love with this team. I think

574
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 4: they're a final four team and just the experience that

575
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:54,959
Speaker 4: they have and the number. Interestingly enough, as money has

576
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 4: been rolling in the last two days and we know

577
00:24:57,560 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 4: that the public doesn't get involved until Thursday. The money's

578
00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 4: been rolling in a North Carolina. But UCLA has gone

579
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 4: up a half a point since opener, and we don't

580
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 4: even know what if Jim Hawk has is going to

581
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 4: be in the game. Cronan was asked about a few

582
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 4: hours ago and he's like, I'm glad we got till Friday.

583
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 4: That's all he said. I'm glad we got till Friday.

584
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 4: If he can walk, he's gonna play. But to reiterate

585
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 4: what I said the other day, if you want the

586
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 4: advanced key stat that is big in this game, it's

587
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 4: mid range jumpers. You know, UCLA is seventh of the

588
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 4: nation in frequency, they're tenth inefficiency and that is a

589
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 4: real problem area for North Carolina. So you think about

590
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 4: Johnny Juzang and Tiger Campbell and Jim Hawks, I mean

591
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 4: they will hit from anywhere withinside the ark and that's

592
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 4: a problem for North Carolina. And if cronin we talked

593
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:43,160
Speaker 4: like I said the other night North Carolina is they

594
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 4: allow their average possession link on the defensive side.

595
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 2: Of the ball.

596
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 4: They allow teams to walk it up the court. It's like,

597
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:51,680
Speaker 4: you know, outside the top two fifty. So that means

598
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 4: Tiger Campbell's going to be able to walk it up

599
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 4: across the half court line, Crona's gonna be able to

600
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 4: set his offense, and they're just gonna, you know, drain

601
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 4: the clock the entire time. North Carolina wants to get

602
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 4: out in transition and just go wild, which is the

603
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 4: best thing that they do, but they don't pressure enough

604
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:08,399
Speaker 4: to take the ball away. Three hundred and forty seventh

605
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 4: and defensive turnover percentage. That means you're gonna let Tiger

606
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:12,879
Speaker 4: Campbell have a free game to roam and do whatever

607
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 4: he wants.

608
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 2: Now. I hope Himehakes is healthy. We'll see.

609
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,439
Speaker 4: But this mid range jumper, I can't get over how

610
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:20,959
Speaker 4: much of a discrepancy there is here. And I think

611
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 4: that's where you see aly beats him.

612
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:24,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean you said wins a lot of games

613
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 3: doing that to the anti Adalymtics team. But here's North

614
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,160
Speaker 3: Carolina's peak. I mean, it's just so good when we've

615
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 3: seen it all year, and there's a couple things I

616
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 3: like you mentioned, I'm gonna spin it the other way

617
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:36,000
Speaker 3: on the turnovers. North Kunda does not pressure you, does

618
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 3: not of course any turnovers or just at all, but

619
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 3: you still doesn't turn it over against anybody. They're top

620
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,920
Speaker 3: five in the nation in turno percentage. Usually he's not

621
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 3: gonna turn over about who you play, that kind of

622
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 3: like negates that strength, Like no matter who North colin

623
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 3: is playing, they're not gonna turn you over. They're not

624
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,640
Speaker 3: gonna pressure. They're going to try to get defensive rebounds.

625
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 3: And by the way, the number two in the country

626
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 3: and defensive rebounding percentage, what is that? So that number

627
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 3: one that negates that helps n WE eight one of

628
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 3: the strengths of USA, which is the offensive glass. It

629
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 3: also can lead the transition opportunities for North Carolina where

630
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 3: they are really good and UCLA's defense is really bad.

631
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,959
Speaker 3: They're outside the top three hundred in transition defense. I

632
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 3: think Carolina can thrive there also Ucla, where else do

633
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:18,719
Speaker 3: they struggle on defense because they're really long. They can

634
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 3: bring in this like death death defensive lineup, but they

635
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 3: give up. You can beat them on catch and shoot

636
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 3: threes on the permoter. You do that last year, you

637
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 3: do that. This year they're outside the top three hundred

638
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 3: again on catch and shoot threes. And what is UNC

639
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,640
Speaker 3: thrive on this year catch and shoot threes? They're really

640
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 3: good in that aspect, and they they're sixty eighth in

641
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 3: shot quality points for prosessional in catching shoot threes, they're

642
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 3: forty first overall and three point percentage. So I think

643
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 3: Carolina can hit some shots, they can get some defensive rebounds,

644
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 3: get out and transition. I think this goes right down

645
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 3: to the wire. And that's not even throwing in the

646
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:55,239
Speaker 3: fact that hockets might not even play. So yeah, I mean,

647
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:57,479
Speaker 3: and one of the UNC's weaknesses is they don't pressure

648
00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 3: you and they don't get out on a three point line.

649
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 3: And part of that is they want to get the

650
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:03,119
Speaker 3: defensive rebounds. They want to get back on transition. You

651
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:06,880
Speaker 3: see that doesn't shoot threes. So like, okay that they're

652
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,160
Speaker 3: outside the top three hundred and three point percentage too,

653
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:12,199
Speaker 3: So I don't know. I think that the peak of UNC,

654
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:14,399
Speaker 3: if they played to their peak, is better than the

655
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 3: peak of UCLA. Now you North Carolina. If I look

656
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 3: at my numbers they have, obviously they're way higher variants

657
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 3: in UCLA. But a lot of that is I say,

658
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 3: some games they just didn't show up defensively. But now

659
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 3: like it's the tournament, I feel like you can count them.

660
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 3: The lock in on the defensive side of the ball.

661
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 3: So I'm leaning heels here, and it would just be

662
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 3: an out of bonus if Hockets can't play. But obviously

663
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,239
Speaker 3: it's a big variable and he's really important to them.

664
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 3: So if he's he's a go, it's gonna give UCLA

665
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 3: a boost, help us break the tie. Michael, go to

666
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 3: you first.

667
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on North Carolina money line here. You know,

668
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: whether Hawkins plays or not. What's interesting to me is

669
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 1: when UCLA hit their absolute peak as they're cruising to

670
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 1: you know, the final four. Last year, Johnny Juzang, you know,

671
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 1: played some hero ball down the stretch, and this year

672
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 1: he hasn't hit twenty points since early February. It's doesn't

673
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 1: mean that he hasn't been a part of, you know,

674
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 1: the winning process or anything like that, but he has

675
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:08,960
Speaker 1: been hampered with a few injuries.

676
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 3: You know.

677
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 1: Mick Cronin is historically very tight lipped with things like that.

678
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously you're seeing it with the information he's

679
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 1: doling out with Hakes. So that just to me when

680
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 1: I when I pair that with the times in which

681
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 1: they've been forcing Pacswell play to rev up their offense

682
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 1: and to win in the game scoring in the eighties,

683
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 1: they went one to two against Arizona. To me, that's

684
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 1: really the only comparable, you know, comparison in terms of

685
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 1: what they may face if North Carolina gets to play

686
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 1: the speed and tempo that they want to play in

687
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 1: this And then finally, I made the analogy before about

688
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 1: having you know, the right number of outs on the table.

689
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 1: In this case, UCLA, the shots have to drop from

690
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 1: the mid range because you're up against the third ranks

691
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 1: you know, defensive rebounding team in the entire country, and

692
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 1: Baykok's just going to gobble up everything in sight. So

693
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 1: it does put added pressure playing at a venue, you know,

694
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 1: across the country with I'm sure a lot of North

695
00:29:56,760 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 1: Carolina fans there. If things aren't going well early, I

696
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: just see North Carolina not only being a live dog,

697
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: but very quickly in terms of the live numbers, you know,

698
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 1: adjusting to it. I think you'll see them very quickly

699
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 1: become the favorite of this game.

700
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I remember, should have lost in the first scour

701
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 3: game last year. And if that happens, what is the

702
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 3: narrative on this team? It's not no, it's and like

703
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 3: their priors are all different, and the tournament is crazy,

704
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 3: BJ Are you going to Are we going to go

705
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 3: on three one heels here? Are you going to make

706
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 3: it a tie?

707
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 5: No, I'm gonna make it a tie. I'm gonna go

708
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 5: with my friend Colin and take Ucla. I agree with

709
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 5: I think the mid range jumper advantage for UCLA is

710
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 5: going to be really, really large. Obviously you mentioned the

711
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 5: turnover advantage of them as well. I would agree with you,

712
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 5: stuck he In Mike that it does worry me a

713
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 5: little bit, that actually a lot bit that North Carolina

714
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 5: is so good on the defensive glass, that they're so

715
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 5: good in transition, that you say is so bad in transition.

716
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 5: But if this game is played in the half court,

717
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 5: where North Carolina is most effective is an off ball screens,

718
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 5: which is one of the reasons why they're able to

719
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 5: beat Baylor. Well, UCLA is top fifty in terms of

720
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 5: defending off all screens. I think you and there also

721
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 5: I think they'll be able to handle Baycott down low

722
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,479
Speaker 5: their top fifty and defending post upsets. So that's going

723
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 5: to put a lot of pressure on North Carolina to

724
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 5: continue to knock down threes from behind the arc, which

725
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 5: they are capable of doing, but if you look at

726
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 5: the shot quality numbers, they should be regressing, you know,

727
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 5: a few percentages from behind the arc in UCLA is

728
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 5: fifty second in the country in allowing open three pointers.

729
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 5: So I think it's a decent matchup your PCLA. I

730
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 5: think they're good enough defensively to hold North Carolina from

731
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 5: behind the three point line. So I'm gonna agree with

732
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 5: Colin and take minus two. I think the number is just,

733
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:33,479
Speaker 5: you know, a few points too low. But I do

734
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 5: agree with you guys that there are some things about

735
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 5: advantages for North Carolina that do arguy, but it's you

736
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 5: know what, it's going to be a really fun game.

737
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 4: Well, Mike's right, though, Juzan has to come back to

738
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 4: what he was last year for this team, especially if

739
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 4: Jamehakez is not there, and you know he had all

740
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 4: those injuries. Leading up to the end of Pac twelve,

741
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 4: play finally played a thirty eight minute game in that

742
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 4: lost Arizona, and Mike mentioned they were one and two

743
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 4: against Arizona, leading comfortably in that game until the middle

744
00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 4: of the second half and then either just ran out

745
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:01,520
Speaker 4: of gas or Arizona hit that second gear like they

746
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 4: did against TCU. But Johnny juzaying is gonna have to

747
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 4: be twenty twenty one final fourish to get them over

748
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 4: this home. So we'll see, we'll see if they've got

749
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 4: that in them.

750
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 3: All right, Well, there was enough hesitation from bj and

751
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 3: then a little pull back from Colin. So and I'm

752
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 3: the host, So if you are still undecided, the official

753
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:25,719
Speaker 3: episode pick is North Carolina, Mike and I win. All right,

754
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 3: let's go to the final game of the night, and

755
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 3: Colin are going to disagree on this one too, because

756
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 3: we disagreed on the Sunday podcast. Iowa State Miami two

757
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 3: double digit seeds. Here, I was staying eleven seed Miami

758
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 3: at ten seed Miami two and a half point favorite

759
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 3: over under one point thirty three. This game is at

760
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 3: ninety fifty nine Eastern or TBS. I did this is

761
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 3: a simple handicap. I think this just comes down to turnovers.

762
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 3: That's it. Iowa State relies on forcing turnovers. This is

763
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 3: a half court offense at ranks and the twentieth percent

764
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 3: found points per possession percentergy awful half court offense. They

765
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 3: just need to make circus shots and half court' that's it.

766
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 3: That's their only path to offense. If they get out

767
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 3: in transition with their high pressure defense, they cause a

768
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 3: lot of turnovers. They're fourth in the nation and force

769
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 3: turnover percentage, then their offense can get some points. That's

770
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 3: not gonna work here. Miami multiple ballhanders in the court

771
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 3: at all times. They are sixth and they have the

772
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 3: sixth fewest turn six lowest turnover in the country. There's

773
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 3: equipped as any team in the nation to handle heavy pressure,

774
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 3: and they can make Iowa State pay for their aggressiveness

775
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 3: on the perimeter, backcuts guards, driving to the whole. It's

776
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 3: on the other side where I think there's gonna be

777
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 3: major turnover issues with Miami. I mean, Miami is the

778
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 3: top sixty in the country and forced turner percentage. Iowa

779
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 3: State their offense two hundred and ninety fourth a turnover percentage.

780
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 3: We saw Miami do that to USC. Miami couldn't make

781
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 3: a shot. They were one of fourteen from three USC's

782
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 3: nine to twenty. Miami still won because they turned the

783
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 3: USC over eighteen times and they only turned their themselves

784
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 3: three times. I think that's we're gonna see that same

785
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 3: script and guess what well Miami gets out in transition.

786
00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 3: The most efficient transition offense in country. That's where they're

787
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 3: gonna get their points. So I think that that's like,

788
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 3: I mean, Miami's weakness all year is like their deep

789
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:10,839
Speaker 3: Their interior defense is real bad. They can't rebound, They're

790
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 3: not huge concerns against Iowa State. The one thing that

791
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 3: I'm and look, Miami looks so much more impressive this term.

792
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:20,360
Speaker 3: And they just just dismantled Auburn and they beat usc

793
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 3: despite shooting one of fourteen from three. You know, Iowa

794
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 3: State beats a dysfunctionals you team without a coach, and

795
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 3: they needed Tyree Hunter, who's like a twenty percent three

796
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,280
Speaker 3: point shooter, to go Steph Curry and his seven threes.

797
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,799
Speaker 3: And then they get they beat Wisconsin when Hepper and

798
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 3: their point guard goes down and they can't run offense.

799
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:37,320
Speaker 3: Now Big twelve has looked a lot better out of

800
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 3: conference in Iowa State, if you remember, they did look

801
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 3: really good pre conference, which is a little bit of

802
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:45,280
Speaker 3: a concern of mine. But matchup perspective is all canes

803
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 3: for me. I'll take LARAONEGA two in the coaching advantage

804
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,400
Speaker 3: Miami money line, Miami money Line, Miami money Line. But

805
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 3: Colin you love Iowa State and make your case.

806
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 2: I do.

807
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 4: I love I was stated too after you and I

808
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:57,840
Speaker 4: recorded the podcast. It was that one one and a

809
00:34:57,880 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 4: half came up to two and a half and I

810
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 4: I'm not really sure where the direction that's going to

811
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 4: go from there, but I might take another bite.

812
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:05,320
Speaker 2: At two and a half.

813
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 4: And you know, I on the defensive glass, Iowa State

814
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:10,480
Speaker 4: has a huge advantage. But you're right if the transition

815
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,480
Speaker 4: is working for Miami. You know, Iowa State's one hundred

816
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 4: and second defending in the transition, and they're going to

817
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 4: have to hit all of their shots because they're not

818
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 4: going to get a single offensive rebound. So if you know,

819
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:25,240
Speaker 4: if Iowa State is able to defend the rim something

820
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:27,279
Speaker 4: that they're forty third at, they're gonna have to get

821
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,320
Speaker 4: down the court fast enough to do it. They should,

822
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:30,839
Speaker 4: you know, be able to gobble up all of that.

823
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:33,359
Speaker 4: But Miami just has no answer on the other side

824
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 4: of the ball. Again, in mid range frequency and mid

825
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 4: range efficiency, Iowa State is top fifty in both of those,

826
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 4: and that's where you know Miami's two hundred and seventy

827
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:44,319
Speaker 4: fourth and defending it. So I think this is one

828
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 4: of those things again where we can point out Miami

829
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 4: is going to do this and Iowa State's you know,

830
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:52,919
Speaker 4: kind of okay in transition. We need Miami to miss

831
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:54,720
Speaker 4: because IA say it's going to sweep up the glass.

832
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:56,799
Speaker 4: But when you look on the other side, Iowa State

833
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 4: does one thing offensively and Miami.

834
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:00,320
Speaker 2: Is really bad at defend that.

835
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 4: And to use the term that they dismantled Auburn, Okay,

836
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 4: Texas A and M did too. We knew Auburn was

837
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:10,960
Speaker 4: complete scrap, like outside of where they've when they play

838
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:13,640
Speaker 4: at home, like they covered every single game except for

839
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 4: two at home. When they got on the road, they

840
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 4: were absolutely terrible this year. And you know, Texas A

841
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 4: and M I think shot sixty percent for three from them.

842
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:23,840
Speaker 4: And I really hate myself for, you know, even putting

843
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 4: Auburn into the sweet sixteen of my brackets that are

844
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 4: all trash. Now, I think Iowa State has got the goods,

845
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 4: but you know, to pull this off here, so I'm

846
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 4: sticking with it. I see a two and a half

847
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:34,839
Speaker 4: on the board at a sharp shop. I'm gonna see

848
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 4: what direction that goes, but I might buy it again

849
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:37,400
Speaker 4: before tip.

850
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:41,399
Speaker 3: You're more You're Merlin on more mid range jumpers. Range

851
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 3: jumpers are going uh BJ one to one. Start us

852
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:45,720
Speaker 3: off here.

853
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 5: Miami, Miami, Miami, Miami. I mean this Iowa State team sucks.

854
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:51,800
Speaker 5: I'm sorry. Their offense is so so bad in a

855
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 5: half court and they're stuck in this matchup because you

856
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 5: mentioned it stucky alliteration there. So if io State wants

857
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 5: to play this in the half court, they are outside

858
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:03,839
Speaker 5: the top three thirty in points possession in the half court.

859
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 5: They didn't get They didn't average over point eight points

860
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:10,280
Speaker 5: for possession in their first two tournament games, which is really,

861
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 5: really bad, which is how you have to beat Miami

862
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:14,800
Speaker 5: because they're one hundred and seventy fifth.

863
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:18,320
Speaker 6: And half court offense. So if I say, who's better.

864
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 5: In transition offensively wants to get this game out in

865
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 5: transition stucky at the nail on the head. Miami is

866
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 5: the most efficient team offensively in transition. They're also top

867
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 5: sixty in defending in transition. They won't turn the ball over.

868
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:30,879
Speaker 5: It's gonna be I Always State is stuck. I don't

869
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:34,479
Speaker 5: understand how they're really gonna score efficiently in this game.

870
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 5: And then if I don't really know if they really

871
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 5: want to defend in the half court against Miami and

872
00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:40,720
Speaker 5: turn this into a slog type game if they can't

873
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 5: actually score themselves in the half court. So I am

874
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:48,080
Speaker 5: all over Miami in this one. What's more impressive about

875
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 5: Miami too. Their first two games one point one to

876
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:52,799
Speaker 5: three points for possession at the rim against the USC

877
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 5: second best room defensive team in the country, forty points

878
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 5: at the room against the ouperat against Jabari Smith and

879
00:37:57,480 --> 00:38:00,399
Speaker 5: Walker Kessler. So even though Iowa State's forty fourth nation

880
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 5: in defending at the rim, I still believe Miami's gonna

881
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 5: have success there.

882
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:05,280
Speaker 6: So I am with you, Stuckey.

883
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,800
Speaker 5: I am all all over the Canes in this matchup

884
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 5: of minus two and a half. I think they're gonna

885
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 5: run Iowa State right out of the gym.

886
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 3: Abandoning your friend Colin Michah Well.

887
00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 5: When it comes to Iowa State, I'll abandon anybody to

888
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 5: go against them there.

889
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 3: Mikeh are you going to save conn here or are

890
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:20,600
Speaker 3: you tipping the scales?

891
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 1: Just call me Sebastian the ibis because I am in

892
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 1: on the Canes here to make this a clean sweep here.

893
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:28,919
Speaker 1: It is real simple for Iowa State to get here.

894
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 1: They needed to have the game script go exactly their way,

895
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 1: which was nineteen turnovers against LSU and seventeen turnovers against Wisconsin.

896
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 2: Miami.

897
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 1: On the other hands, you know they beat usc they

898
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 1: beat Auburn. You know how many threes mcgusty made in

899
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:42,400
Speaker 1: those two games.

900
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:43,320
Speaker 4: Zero.

901
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 1: So I'm going to see a positive shooting aggression from him.

902
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 1: He doesn't need to play out of his mind to

903
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:52,480
Speaker 1: win a game like this, And with Charlie Moore with

904
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 1: the ball in his hands for the majority of the time,

905
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 1: I feel safe protected. I'm not going to see him

906
00:38:57,560 --> 00:38:59,279
Speaker 1: choke this game and just give it away to an

907
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:01,920
Speaker 1: Iowa stated, So I'm in the Canes as well.

908
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,279
Speaker 3: I'll lay the points, all right, Colin, Well maybe you

909
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,839
Speaker 3: can go be extra gloating to the three of us

910
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:10,840
Speaker 3: next week. All right, that'll do it for the four previews,

911
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:13,640
Speaker 3: but we still have a couple of things to cover here.

912
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go We're gonna get just one best bet

913
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 3: if you had to make up tomorrow. But first, all right,

914
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:20,320
Speaker 3: we did this on the last episode where we preview

915
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:22,480
Speaker 3: Thursday night games, myself and the guys from the three

916
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,359
Speaker 3: man weave. Looking at the bracket right now, you can

917
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 3: adjust to what you had, you can switch it up.

918
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:30,080
Speaker 3: Who do you have winning it all? And against who?

919
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 3: Michael go to you first? What is your national championship matchup?

920
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:33,840
Speaker 3: And who's your winner?

921
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,439
Speaker 1: So, you know what's interesting For a team that's won

922
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:39,480
Speaker 1: two titles since twenty sixteen, Nova not getting a lot

923
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 1: of buzz. Maybe it's just because I live close to

924
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:44,879
Speaker 1: Philly and you know, people obviously are still talking about

925
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 1: this team on the national level.

926
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 2: They're just not.

927
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 1: Getting quite the respect I think they deserve. And I

928
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 1: really believe that they have the kind of chemistry and

929
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 1: you know, formula to go through round by round and

930
00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 1: get buying close games, particularly their foul shooting. So I

931
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:03,920
Speaker 1: see no against Gonzaga in a you know, religious final

932
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:09,799
Speaker 1: championship there with yeah Jesuits versus the Augustinians. Yes, so

933
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:12,400
Speaker 1: the august Augustinians are bigger drinkers, but I think the

934
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:14,759
Speaker 1: Jesuits will be happier by the time the final horn

935
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:16,360
Speaker 1: sounds bejab.

936
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 5: I had Arizona winning at all over Kentucky to begin with.

937
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 5: Obviously one of those teams is not going to be

938
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:25,440
Speaker 5: in the National Championship game. But I did have Texas

939
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 5: Tech over Gonzaga, so I'm going to say that the

940
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 5: Arizona Wildcats are still going to win the title, but

941
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:37,880
Speaker 5: they are going to win it over the Purdue boilet makers.

942
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:39,280
Speaker 3: Call any Hogs love.

943
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 2: No Hogs love. For me, I'm on it. I'm on

944
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:43,879
Speaker 2: Gonzaga minus eight and a half. I might take nine

945
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:45,360
Speaker 2: and a half four. I go to bed tonight because.

946
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 4: It's the more I think about this game, it's not

947
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 4: going to be pretty with our bench. I had the

948
00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 4: original Nation Championships set out at Texas Tech at Arizona,

949
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:56,359
Speaker 4: but I'm going to change that here on the fly.

950
00:40:56,760 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 4: I think Arizona's going to get upset. I think Houston

951
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 4: can beat him. We we talked about this the other

952
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:05,360
Speaker 4: night with TCU, what they did, what they're rebounding, the differences.

953
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 4: As Houston just has more playmakers, they're going to be

954
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 4: able to do exactly what TCU did. Arizona is going

955
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 4: to have to be on point from the second that

956
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 4: game tips.

957
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 2: If I try to pick.

958
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 4: Another team out of that bottom half of the bracket,

959
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:20,400
Speaker 4: that's gonna be rough. Villanova can probably hang with Houston,

960
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 4: So maybe I would go Villanova and Texas Tech in

961
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,400
Speaker 4: the finals. If Arizona can get past Houston. Then I'll

962
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 4: stick with that. But I really think there's going to

963
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:27,919
Speaker 4: be an upset here.

964
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 3: So what is your pick? I don't even know your

965
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 3: pick is. Your pick is all conditional.

966
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 4: I'm going to stick with what I had tex I

967
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 4: had Arizona beating Texas Tech.

968
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 2: I'll stick with it. But I am going to say

969
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:37,800
Speaker 2: I don't know can I say that? I think Arizona's

970
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:41,280
Speaker 2: losing to Houston, So I don't know how that works.

971
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 3: All right, Colin has every possible matchup, all right? One

972
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:48,160
Speaker 3: to final order business before we get out of here.

973
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:50,760
Speaker 3: Best bets. One bet you got to make for tomorrow

974
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:52,319
Speaker 3: could be a you could go future, you could go

975
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 3: look for this live. However you want to go with it,

976
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 3: Michae'll throw it to you.

977
00:41:57,080 --> 00:41:58,880
Speaker 1: I would say the best player on the board for

978
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:01,240
Speaker 1: me is going to be Problems plus seven and a half.

979
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:03,760
Speaker 1: I really think it's going to be a game that's

980
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:06,440
Speaker 1: going to lend itself to being one or two possessions

981
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 1: down the stretch, and as tournament play usually you know,

982
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:12,799
Speaker 1: reveals itself. There's a lot of timeouts, there's reviews, there's

983
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:15,399
Speaker 1: a lot of pressure. It's a Kansas team that does

984
00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:17,960
Speaker 1: not scare me to run away from an opponent, particularly

985
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 1: good one. So I'll take the Priors plus seven and

986
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 1: a half.

987
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 5: I would agree pjilll go do you Miami minus two

988
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:25,080
Speaker 5: and a half. Iowa State's game plan is just stuck.

989
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:27,359
Speaker 5: They can't play in the half court because they can't

990
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:29,720
Speaker 5: score their efficiently if they want to get on transition.

991
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 5: They're playing against the most efficient team in all of

992
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:34,920
Speaker 5: college basketball and transition. There are just so many advantages

993
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 5: for Miami from the turnovers on offense. It's just it's

994
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:41,640
Speaker 5: really a terrible, terrible matchup for Iowa State.

995
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 6: So give me the Canes minus two and a half.

996
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:46,440
Speaker 4: Co Yeah, I'm going to stick with Saint Peter's and

997
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 4: Purdue to go over. I might go with a team

998
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 4: total over on Purdue if Saint peter Is not able

999
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 4: to hit their shots at some point. That Murray State

1000
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 4: twenty three percent three point shooting scares me a little

1001
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:58,720
Speaker 4: bit that this could just get turned off at any point.

1002
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 4: Burdue is going to hit every single free throw they

1003
00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:03,359
Speaker 4: go to the line for, so I would say I'll

1004
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:05,560
Speaker 4: split a half unit on over one thirty five.

1005
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:07,840
Speaker 2: I'm gonna put another half unit on produced team total.

1006
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 3: Over, and then I'm gonna go with UNC. I think

1007
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:14,359
Speaker 3: that you know the questions with is Hock is going

1008
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:16,279
Speaker 3: to play? I don't know if Hock is gonna play.

1009
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:17,919
Speaker 3: If he doesn't, it's obviously going to provide a boost

1010
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 3: to UNC. But how can you UNC score here? Transition

1011
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:23,640
Speaker 3: off defensive rebounding. It's going to take away a strength

1012
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 3: of ucl on the offensive glass as well, catch and

1013
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:30,879
Speaker 3: shoot threes a weakness of UCLA's defense where UNC can

1014
00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 3: thrive and look. UNC doesn't turn you over, They don't

1015
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:34,760
Speaker 3: press you out in a three point line, but UCLI

1016
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 3: doesn't turn it over anyway, and they don't really shoot threes.

1017
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:40,920
Speaker 3: UNC's peak, I think, is better than UCLA's peak. Give

1018
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 3: me the heels to get it done, all right. That'll

1019
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:45,480
Speaker 3: do it for us. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure

1020
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:47,880
Speaker 3: you download the worbining Action Network gap and subscribe to

1021
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:50,799
Speaker 3: Big Bets on Campus. Wherever you listen to podcasts, make

1022
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 3: sure you subscribe, unsubscribe, subscribe. Leave a review really helps

1023
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 3: us out. Five star Review's got tons of giveaways to

1024
00:43:56,760 --> 00:43:58,840
Speaker 3: do if you leave a five star review before the

1025
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 3: end of the season. Big Bets on Campus Live by

1026
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,960
Speaker 3: the Way ten thirty am Eastern Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

1027
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:06,439
Speaker 3: Every day at the tournament, we'll tweet out the link

1028
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 3: on Twitter. Make sure you check that out as well. Myself,

1029
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 3: the guys from three Men, thanks for tuning in. Thanks

1030
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 3: to BJ, Mike and Colin for joining me. Enjoy the

1031
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:16,319
Speaker 3: madness and good luck with three wagers. Cheers,