Speaker 1: This time Lague Cracker.
Speaker 2: Bring we will see you Toms the Dunner.
Speaker 3: Welcome Laming hang Out, Welcome to the Just Baseball Show.
Speaker 3: It is Sunday, July twelfth, and you got the three
Speaker 3: of us that Jack McFall and Arm Late and I
Speaker 3: am Peter Rapple. And today we are doing a twenty
Speaker 3: twenty six home run derby preview and a recap. What
Speaker 3: kind of superlatives about the twenty twenty six MLB Draft
Speaker 3: Because Arm Tyler and I did a three hour stream
Speaker 3: on the draft, So now we're going to look at
Speaker 3: the best of most underrated picks, best value picks, a
Speaker 3: bunch of other fun things with the draft. And it's
Speaker 3: all brought to you by bet MGM. And if you
Speaker 3: haven't signed up for betmgm yet, use bonus code just
Speaker 3: Baseball when signing up and you will get up to
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Speaker 3: wager with BETMGM. Here's how it works. You just download
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Speaker 3: Deposit at least ten bucks, and place your first wager
Speaker 3: on any game, and if that bet loses, you'll receive
Speaker 3: up to fifteen hundred bucks in bonus bets, and maybe,
Speaker 3: just maybe, if you haven't made a bet on BETMGM yet,
Speaker 3: it's the perfect time to do so. ARM for the
Speaker 3: Home Run Derby because I built out and Jack, you'll
Speaker 3: love this a statistical model for the Home Run Derby,
Speaker 3: a simulation. It simulated the Derby two hundred thousand times. Nope,
Speaker 3: you gotta do more. And what you're also going to
Speaker 3: appreciate and I don't want to spoil it yet, but
Speaker 3: it came to a conclusion that a person who went
Speaker 3: to Citizens Bank Park and had eight beers and bet
Speaker 3: On vibes would also come to that conclusion. So whether
Speaker 3: you build out a model and simulate the Derby two
Speaker 3: hundred thousand times, or you drink eight beers, you're going
Speaker 3: to come to the same answer.
Speaker 4: My preferred models usually simulate North the six hundred thousand times,
Speaker 4: So please ask your engine to simulate it four hundred
Speaker 4: thousand more times?
Speaker 3: How many like?
Speaker 4: How long did it take to simulate two hundred thousand times?
Speaker 3: Nothing? Claude just does it immediately. So I just put
Speaker 3: in four thousand.
Speaker 4: I could do it, you know what, Yeah, just say
Speaker 4: keep going, keep going, keep going until your computer starts
Speaker 4: foaming at the.
Speaker 1: Mouthpeter, I'm tired.
Speaker 3: I'm going to bounce you guys through the show. I'm
Speaker 3: going to go simulate the Derby eight hundred thousand more
Speaker 3: times so I could get the same answer, all right,
Speaker 3: the same answer again as if just you said that
Speaker 3: feels like it's going to be this guy.
Speaker 1: So it was cool, though, I'm excited to kind of
Speaker 1: compare the thoughts and we'll contrast there. But yeah, it
Speaker 1: is funny that it kind of took you to the
Speaker 1: same answer that it kind of just vibes guy out
Speaker 1: and right Field just there for a good time, was
Speaker 1: going to go with his prediction too exactly.
Speaker 3: I assume it's all Wilson contreras.
Speaker 1: Right, Wilson guy. In the history of a Derby.
Speaker 3: Wilson gatures the sneaky value sneaky value of wilskatuz. But
Speaker 3: I'm record be betting him. So let's go over the
Speaker 3: rules first, because this is the first year the Derby
Speaker 3: has changed in a long time. We got used to
Speaker 3: the timer and then they said no timer, we're changing
Speaker 3: it again. So each hitter gets twenty swings in the
Speaker 3: first round, and every swing counts against that total, whether
Speaker 3: the ball leaves the yard or not. A hitter. A
Speaker 3: hitter who homers on his final swing keeps swinging until
Speaker 3: he makes an out. The four highest home run totals
Speaker 3: advanced to seeded head to head semi finals, and the
Speaker 3: two winners meet in the final with fifteen swings per
Speaker 3: hitter in both of those rounds, and then the totals
Speaker 3: reset each round. There are no bonus rounds and no timeouts.
Speaker 3: First round ties are broken by the longest home run,
Speaker 3: and the later rounds use a three swing swing off.
Speaker 3: Any questions, no much.
Speaker 1: My immediate thought was, all of a sudden, it feels
Speaker 1: like age matters less.
Speaker 3: Now, Yes, I'm with you, that was my exact thought.
Speaker 3: And it's like the guys who I agree have more stamina.
Speaker 3: Like I remember, we've talked about a lot of the
Speaker 3: younger guys who have ended up winning this competition. That's
Speaker 3: why in twenty twenty four when Taoscar won it, not
Speaker 3: only was that you know a player in the field
Speaker 3: that was ranked fifth or six, but he was an
Speaker 3: older player. He was kind of the only guy to
Speaker 3: win in this timer era that was above the age
Speaker 3: of twenty eight years old. So now we throw all
Speaker 3: of that out the window. We finally get to watch
Speaker 3: guys just hit dangers. Those are the rules. We don't
Speaker 3: have to It's not like every five seconds you're seeing
Speaker 3: a ball fly, especially arm I know you and I
Speaker 3: especially have been to the home run Derby now five
Speaker 3: or six times. Jack, you two, like when the balls
Speaker 3: are just going out so quickly, you don't get to
Speaker 3: sit there and enjoy any of the homers. No, that
Speaker 3: that's a huge thing.
Speaker 4: The other thing is, you know, if you remember the
Speaker 4: pre clock era of the home run Derby, a lot
Speaker 4: of people get very frustrated by the sheer number of takes.
Speaker 4: It's like, how do we get these guy to how
Speaker 4: do we get these guys to swing more? But we
Speaker 4: had the opportunity to try both, and I think I'd
Speaker 4: prefer watching guys take and then watching the ball fly
Speaker 4: as opposed to, okay, how many swings did you just
Speaker 4: get off here?
Speaker 3: And it's like I can't even track a baseball.
Speaker 4: So I like it could be a lesser of two
Speaker 4: evils type of conversation, But I think this one is
Speaker 4: certainly the lesser of two evils.
Speaker 1: That's the thing I agree with. Well, one also a
Speaker 1: bad picture, which is an unfortunate circumstance, can't fully derail
Speaker 1: a guy, like It'll still be difficult, it'll hurt you
Speaker 1: a little bit. But when you're on a timer, like
Speaker 1: if your pitcher can't find it, like you're you're screwed.
Speaker 1: Your time's ticking. But now I think it's a more
Speaker 1: relaxed setting where you get X amount of swings. I
Speaker 1: think it at least, you know, allows a guy to
Speaker 1: be able to find it a little bit and not
Speaker 1: rush it. The other side is just that, Yeah, I
Speaker 1: would more than happily watch a guy spin on a
Speaker 1: couple balls that just aren't located well to be able
Speaker 1: to see how far it flies and soak it in.
Speaker 1: Then just see three in the air. It feels like
Speaker 1: at the same time, I have no idea where to look,
Speaker 1: and and right as you're watching it fly like that,
Speaker 1: the next ball is on its way. So now I
Speaker 1: think the changes are good. I'm excited about it, but
Speaker 1: I'm also like, there's always going to be something. It
Speaker 1: seems like it's impossible to make it perfect. So I'm
Speaker 1: eagerly awaiting what I'm not going to like, But I'm
Speaker 1: going to focus on the positives. I'm going to straight
Speaker 1: what I normally do. I'm pretty fired up to figure
Speaker 1: out what I hate too. It's like, you know what,
Speaker 1: I decide, I hate this new thing. So I wake
Speaker 1: up every day just getting ready to do.
Speaker 4: What can I hate today? That's new, fresh and exciting.
Speaker 4: So I'm glad that you did bring up arm the
Speaker 4: pitchers right? Could they get the yips? Could they start
Speaker 4: throwing balls? I still think and I'm curious your guys
Speaker 4: is of this opinion. I still think it matters. Like
Speaker 4: I think, the better the BP thrower, the more familiar
Speaker 4: you are with said BP thrower, likely the better you're
Speaker 4: going to do. Because you know, some guys like I
Speaker 4: remember Pete Alonso cal Rawley last year, they won with
Speaker 4: their dad.
Speaker 3: This wasn't a coach who was, you know, an expert
Speaker 3: BP thrower. This was their dad when they were used to,
Speaker 3: you know, facing this guy throughout their entire childhood and
Speaker 3: the middle years.
Speaker 4: Did Alonzo win with his dad or did he win
Speaker 4: with Iron Dave Jous who is the best BP?
Speaker 3: It was the best BPF. Literally, he won multiple and
Speaker 3: I think one of them was either with his dad
Speaker 3: or his cousin. I'm nine percent sure it was a
Speaker 3: family member, but I think that familiar exactly. I think
Speaker 3: that familiarity matters, or a guy who's been throwing you
Speaker 3: back practice in the cage for two years, like Kyle
Speaker 3: Schwarber's guy. One that I think is the biggest concern
Speaker 3: is Bryce Harper's BP pitcher. He even said that they're
Speaker 3: going in blind. What's his name? His name is Dino Ebel,
Speaker 3: the dad of Trey Ebl who just got drafted by
Speaker 3: the Milwaukee Brewers.
Speaker 4: And Brady and the third race coach of the LA Dodgers,
Speaker 4: Dino Evil exactly.
Speaker 3: He's a good BP thrower. But Harper even said we're
Speaker 3: going in blind because he's never thrown to Harper in
Speaker 3: his life. I feel like that could end up hurting
Speaker 3: Harper thoughts.
Speaker 1: My pushback on that when we were talking out of it before,
Speaker 1: is that like he's kind of dialed. I feel like
Speaker 1: on the BP, I think he's gonna be money to
Speaker 1: throw into like generations of kids. He's gonna be nasty
Speaker 1: with it. But there is kind of a cadence and
Speaker 1: timing and familiarity. I'm sure that is a big part
Speaker 1: of it, and I think that does contribute. But Dino
Speaker 1: might be locked I don't know.
Speaker 3: And to your point, arm Dino has thrown in the
Speaker 3: in the home run derby before.
Speaker 1: So that's big too. I think if you've thrown in
Speaker 1: the derby before, like you could be a big league
Speaker 1: third base coach, but not until the lights are on
Speaker 1: you and there's forty thousand people there. And like your
Speaker 1: ability to gently throw a ball over the plate, which
Speaker 1: is I think harder than throwing it hard over the
Speaker 1: plate from that distance, like it is basically makes or
Speaker 1: breaks a Major League Baseball player's opportunity to win the derby.
Speaker 1: I think it's got to be crazy, crazy, nerve racking
Speaker 1: if you've never done it before, but you go ahead.
Speaker 4: No, no, no, But if anybody knows nerve wracking BP,
Speaker 4: it's probably deno Ebel, who has to throw to Otani
Speaker 4: every day. And like, I understand that it's not in
Speaker 4: a public setting, but if you're throwing to Otani constantly,
Speaker 4: and you're throwing to Freeman and Mets, you better be
Speaker 4: locked in. And I feel good about a Dodger BP
Speaker 4: thrower throwing to Harper.
Speaker 3: So it's funny. Like my statistical bottle, two hundred thousand simulations,
Speaker 3: I had to rank them, and the rest of the
Speaker 3: guys have pretty good BP throwers, So I ranked Harper's
Speaker 3: guy last because they've never thrown to each other. But
Speaker 3: generally speaking, I don't.
Speaker 4: Wait, you had to rank the throwers for Claude, rank
Speaker 4: the throwers. Let's man, no, no, do it three hundred
Speaker 4: thousand more times and then we'll.
Speaker 1: Start some more times.
Speaker 3: I think the best the best BP thrower, Junior camer
Speaker 3: Arrow's got a good one. They got through to the
Speaker 3: Randy Rose Arena when he finishes the runner up, and
Speaker 3: through to Cameron Arrow himself last year when camen Aro
Speaker 3: was the runner up. So that's my number one ranked
Speaker 3: BP thrower. I love the derby.
Speaker 1: I don't know does he have what it takes to
Speaker 1: push him across the finish line. It doesn't sound like.
Speaker 3: A lot of runner ups. Maybe shy Dokam tri sim
Speaker 3: some of the gatorade too, or is it just the
Speaker 3: hitters that get it during the timeout? Some of these
Speaker 3: pictures may need some gatorade but no timer, so again
Speaker 3: they get to take their time a little bit.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no doubt.
Speaker 3: That was a very entertating segment about BP throwers. Let's
Speaker 3: talk about whom you actually think is going to win
Speaker 3: the Derby? Talk about who we think is going to
Speaker 3: win the Derby? Arm where are you out here?
Speaker 1: This is, as Peyton said a couple episodes ago, this
Speaker 1: is like the ball Knower's Derby, And Jack and I speculated,
Speaker 1: like who could fill the last couple of spots. We
Speaker 1: knew it would be Schwarber, and we thought very confidently
Speaker 1: that it would be Harper as well. We get those two.
Speaker 1: I would not have thought that Murakami would be in
Speaker 1: this thing, and I think that brings a really fun element.
Speaker 1: We talked about it. Peter and I talked about it
Speaker 1: a little bit before we hit record of like maybe
Speaker 1: he hasn't played in a while, but I think, as
Speaker 1: Peter brought this point up, like, I think it actually
Speaker 1: works in his favor one because he's gonna feel fresh
Speaker 1: and feel good. But too, there's no chance that Murakami's
Speaker 1: in this thing if he's not feeling great, Like even
Speaker 1: if the hammy was a little tight, I don't think
Speaker 1: he's doing this thing. So I just think now this field,
Speaker 1: how ridiculous it is, and the age thing not mattering
Speaker 1: as much. It's really hard to not kind of stray
Speaker 1: back towards or drift back towards the vets and like
Speaker 1: a Schwarber or even when Otako was younger. I just
Speaker 1: think this setting, all of a sudden is pretty exciting
Speaker 1: because his swing is just scrooved for just balls in
Speaker 1: the air hard consistently, and I think it could work
Speaker 1: really well from Murakami as well. But Schwerbur in the
Speaker 1: bank with this format's going to be tough too. But
Speaker 1: I'm excited about Murakami.
Speaker 3: Yeah, real quick on the Murakami thing, and Jack, I'm
Speaker 3: curious to your thoughts on this too. It's you can
Speaker 3: kind of there's two forks in the road and you
Speaker 3: go either direction with mun To Taka Murakami. One is
Speaker 3: he's only played three games since you returned from the IL,
Speaker 3: and now he has to go do this home run derby,
Speaker 3: even though he has done I think two in Japan.
Speaker 3: I know he's done one. I think it's two in Japan,
Speaker 3: but he's ever done one Stateside. Obviously, completely new rules
Speaker 3: after the injury, he's not going to do all that well,
Speaker 3: or you could look at it, he's the freshest he
Speaker 3: has come back. He clearly is healthy because the white
Speaker 3: socks are playing him, and he agreed to do the derby.
Speaker 3: Even though it's not much of a stamina game, you
Speaker 3: still have to have some stamina to be punishing baseball's
Speaker 3: four hundred and forty feet out of the ballpark, right,
Speaker 3: So which way do you lean on, murra Commy, Is
Speaker 3: that the health thing is actually completely overblown and he's
Speaker 3: the freshest or do you think it actually will affect
Speaker 3: him during the derby? Before I answer this question, does
Speaker 3: this sound awful? Right now?
Speaker 4: I'm at the Fort Lauernale Hollywood International Airport, So why
Speaker 4: don't you guys talk a little bit about more about
Speaker 4: the rest of the field, and I'll chime in, Actually, no,
Speaker 4: never mind, they're not done. You guys talk a little
Speaker 4: bit more about the rest of the field, and then
Speaker 4: when they do decide to shut up on the speakers,
Speaker 4: I will jump up six.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 3: I assumed that Jack agrees with you, and I are
Speaker 3: that I don't think the health is going to affect
Speaker 3: him that much, So I do like Murakami. I also
Speaker 3: think that Jack Haglion is going to be a problem. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I think that Jack Haglion because again, I think again,
Speaker 3: we should focus on left handed bats. At a citizens
Speaker 3: Bank Park, per baseball Savon's park factor one fifteen for
Speaker 3: homers for lefties, one oh five for righties. Generally speaking,
Speaker 3: citizens Bank Park plays better for the left handed bats,
Speaker 3: especially power wise, and per our friends at Ballpark, Palell
Speaker 3: about eight to ten mile on our winds blowing out
Speaker 3: to right center, so the wind is helping the lefties.
Speaker 3: The stadium already helps the lefties and all the lefties
Speaker 3: that this competition rake right. So you've got a couple
Speaker 3: ritings who might have to overcome a couple of deficiencies
Speaker 3: that the lefties get in their favor.
Speaker 4: Check I cut the field in half for myself. Personally,
Speaker 4: I view four as legit, legit contenders, and I guess
Speaker 4: Schwarber's in there too. The guy that is number five
Speaker 4: for me, like I think Jordan Walker could put together
Speaker 4: some crazy swings, I don't know if he's gonna win
Speaker 4: this whole thing. The guy that I keep coming back
Speaker 4: to but is outside the top four for me is
Speaker 4: Ben Rice, Like I think Ben Rice can have a
Speaker 4: really solid showing in this derby, but he's five for me.
Speaker 4: And the four legit contenders that I feel like are
Speaker 4: coming into this are Schwarber, Murakami, Caglione, and Junior. I
Speaker 4: understand that it's more favorable to a left handed hitter,
Speaker 4: but at the end of the day, Junior is Junior.
Speaker 4: What we've seen from him and these swings, man, it
Speaker 4: could be absolutely ridiculous, But I think Kagleiann's a really
Speaker 4: good shout.
Speaker 1: Right now.
Speaker 3: I think Murri Kami is my pick, but I don't
Speaker 3: feel really good about that. Well, the model feels pretty
Speaker 3: good about that. I got a number two, Jack, You
Speaker 3: and the model you're simulating everything. Wow, how what was he?
Speaker 4: Like sixty five thousand simulations came out to Murakami or no?
Speaker 4: Like so the eighth number eight on the totem pole.
Speaker 4: How many of the two hundred thousand did he win?
Speaker 3: Derby? That is a good question, So let me scroll on,
Speaker 3: Like what was the deviation?
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is in terms a good question, like was
Speaker 1: there someone that was just so cooked? But there's no
Speaker 1: way because they're all.
Speaker 4: Like Wilson Contreras won fourteen Derbys of the two hundred thousand.
Speaker 3: I mean, phi Philly's fans aren't gonna like this.
Speaker 1: Harper?
Speaker 3: How many did Harper win for the two hundred Harper one.
Speaker 3: Now I'm trying to give you a percentage. It's like
Speaker 3: five point five percent. Five point five percent.
Speaker 4: Okay, it's like the it's like SpongeBob trying to pass
Speaker 4: his boating exam. You needed seven hundred, you got six.
Speaker 3: That's what the coming in coming in seventh. I had Wilson,
Speaker 3: Cantreras coming in sixth, Ben Rice, then Jordan Walker, and
Speaker 3: my top four were CAGs, Murakami, Cameron Aro and Schwarber.
Speaker 3: But it's actually ranked Schwarber number one, Murakami number two,
Speaker 3: Caglione number three, camon Arow number four.
Speaker 1: It's hard to argue against that. I do like I
Speaker 1: do like the order there I do. There's I want
Speaker 1: to go Schwarber, and there's part of me that like
Speaker 1: I could see it just going, oh gosh, of course
Speaker 1: it was Schwarber, and we watch him win with the
Speaker 1: bank behind him, and just it's just this most like
Speaker 1: I don't want to say predictable, but just kind of
Speaker 1: chalk situation that would be amazing to see. At the
Speaker 1: same time, but I also could see it just Harper
Speaker 1: is like, you think that guy's gonna go down without
Speaker 1: a fight, Like it's one that I think, like you
Speaker 1: can't fully value the just dog in that guy and
Speaker 1: how bad he's gonna want it, Like I think Bryce
Speaker 1: Harper really will want this bad and I think that
Speaker 1: part's gonna make it fascinating. And also the part that, like,
Speaker 1: he's a guy that is just so consistent with his swing,
Speaker 1: and I just think about an MVP in this kind
Speaker 1: of setting, he could kind of get into a rhythm
Speaker 1: here where he's just putting them out pretty consistently. So
Speaker 1: I do I agree with the top end. I think
Speaker 1: I'd put Harper a couple of spots up, but maybe
Speaker 1: that's just because he's Bryce Harper.
Speaker 3: It's so funny. Yeah, real quick.
Speaker 4: I mean, you remember the run that Harper went on
Speaker 4: in Washington. Obviously he was a much younger version of
Speaker 4: Bryce Harper at that time when he won the derby
Speaker 4: in Washington, But like you remember the end of some
Speaker 4: of his rounds in Washington where it was rinse and
Speaker 4: repeat identical, like ballflight was identical. He was just peppering
Speaker 4: it was it was, to Arm's point, like the exact
Speaker 4: same thing like eight times at the end of these rounds.
Speaker 3: I think what the model is failing to count for
Speaker 3: is that dog in them? And I think that's what
Speaker 3: models always fail to do. That's why models every single
Speaker 3: season when we do our win totals episode arm the
Speaker 3: Brewers are every year like eighty one and a half,
Speaker 3: We're like, what, that's why you got to touch grass
Speaker 3: and watch the game exactly so here. But here's the
Speaker 3: thing about Bryce Harper, Right, you look at the stack
Speaker 3: cast outa from this year, like he doesn't have the
Speaker 3: power that he used to. So we're kind of relying
Speaker 3: on with Harper compared to the rest of the field, because,
Speaker 3: I mean, this is a collection of some of the
Speaker 3: greatest power hitters in all of baseball. And Bryce Harper
Speaker 3: is having a great season. But he has twenty home
Speaker 3: runs for a reason. Right, He's not going to hit
Speaker 3: forty five jacks this year. He's a really, really good hinter,
Speaker 3: but I wouldn't even say that home runs are necessarily
Speaker 3: his game at this point compared to everybody else. I mean,
Speaker 3: I've Ben Rice finishing six and he's got twenty nine
Speaker 3: jacks this year. Wilson controlls per Ballpark. Powell has the
Speaker 3: most no doubter home runs. It's the most that have
Speaker 3: gone over four hundred and twenty feet this year, so
Speaker 3: and then Jordan Walker, Jack Haglion and the rest. It's
Speaker 3: like he just doesn't compare batted ball data wise to
Speaker 3: these guys. It is just it's Harper in Philly. Yeah,
Speaker 3: so I'm not even really debating you because saying the
Speaker 3: words Harper and Philly at the derby, I do like it.
Speaker 3: I did bet him to get bounced in the first round, though,
Speaker 3: I will admit bounce walkers round.
Speaker 1: Walker's ability to move the bat at just such an
Speaker 1: elite level. I mean, if not for Junior Commonero, he's
Speaker 1: the guy that's moving the bad consistently the fastest in
Speaker 1: Major League Baseball right now, with an average bat speed
Speaker 1: north of seventy nine. Him and Junior are the only
Speaker 1: two guys in that department. So that part of it,
Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be a way that Jordan Walker
Speaker 1: inserts himself into this in terms of maybe he has
Speaker 1: one of the longest home runs, maybe he has like
Speaker 1: a really good round. I just I can't overlook Jordan
Speaker 1: Walker in this whole thing, and I just think he's
Speaker 1: going to give you a nice little run, even he
Speaker 1: might have a just a really good first round, and
Speaker 1: it's like just he gets beaten by a better round.
Speaker 1: I think we're just going to see a good showing
Speaker 1: from Jordan, but I wanted to shout that out. I
Speaker 1: think Murakami has a chance to do something really special here,
Speaker 1: and that's where I keep going back to. But soa
Speaker 1: can CAGs, and so can Schwarber. So my mind goes everywhere,
Speaker 1: and I think this is going to be one of
Speaker 1: the most competitive journeys we've ever had.
Speaker 3: I agree, But Jack, what I was going back to
Speaker 3: the beginning, right, you simulated two hundred thousand times, you
Speaker 3: drink eight beers and you go to Citizens Bank Park,
Speaker 3: and they all come to the same conclusion. Schwar bombs
Speaker 3: Warber at the Yeah, Schwarber at the bank. Because I'm
Speaker 3: also looking at you know, from even a betting angle,
Speaker 3: Schwarber is the odds on favorite, but my model says
Speaker 3: he should be like the definitive favorite, like he's even
Speaker 3: undervalued because they're trying to balance the odds across the rest.
Speaker 3: Like I think Ben Rice is even overvalued. I think
Speaker 3: Wilson Gatreroz is overvalued. I think Bryce Harper is overvalued.
Speaker 3: I think Jeordan Walker is overvalued. And in most simulations,
Speaker 3: Kyle Schuber wins it. So I'm going with Schwarber exactly.
Speaker 3: That met like the guy at the top. See you're
Speaker 3: the guy at the top right now.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you're the guys. It's the it's the Bell curve.
Speaker 4: It's the dumb It's the dumb. All lies in the
Speaker 4: middle being angry the bell curve meme. Everybody in the
Speaker 4: middle is like, oh, I hate this. There are so
Speaker 4: many different ways this could go like that.
Speaker 3: And then it's like, no, it's just schwar bobs in Philly.
Speaker 3: So Kylee s Forwarber is my pick.
Speaker 1: I as much as I want to kind of make
Speaker 1: the same pick, I really do think Schwarber is is
Speaker 1: kind of the most likely scenario there. But for the
Speaker 1: sake of being different different, I'm gonna go I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go Murrakami here. I think Markami puts on a special
Speaker 1: show Jack.
Speaker 4: For the sake of copying Orham, I'm sticking with my
Speaker 4: Murrakami pick.
Speaker 3: I like Murakami. Can I ben on a runner up? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Do whatever?
Speaker 3: Junior I think I think Junior is the runner up again.
Speaker 3: The way Junior backspins Baseball's like that was something that
Speaker 3: I think I've said that on the podcast now four
Speaker 3: or five, maybe seven thousand times. Dude, backspins baseball's differently,
Speaker 3: the batspeed is out of control.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's just did you account for average spin
Speaker 1: orientation on in your model?
Speaker 3: Every number? Every number, even numbers that haven't been invented yet. Really,
Speaker 3: I can't tell you. I'd have to kill you.
Speaker 1: I think that. Yeah, I cank got into my head.
Speaker 1: I'm going Schwarber, but I'm going Marikkami.
Speaker 3: How does how does claude work?
Speaker 1: Like?
Speaker 3: Could you text me a link to this prompt? And
Speaker 3: I could just like, yes, absolutely, yeah, please text me
Speaker 3: the link to. I was telling ARM two, like making
Speaker 3: this model is more fun than actually betting the Derby.
Speaker 4: It's like it's like the people that love fantasy mock drafts, right,
Speaker 4: it's fantasy mock draft season.
Speaker 3: Oh that's a love it. In comparison though, it's like
Speaker 3: mock draft is your actual drafter for you're all nervous,
Speaker 3: but the mock draft you're doing through all these different
Speaker 3: scenarios that it's so much fun. So I'm going with Schwarber, Arms,
Speaker 3: go with Mrkkami, Jack's going with Mark COMMI I will
Speaker 3: pick a runner up as well. I kind of want
Speaker 3: to go with Murrakami, but I also want to go
Speaker 3: with CAGs, so to be different, I'll go with Kags
Speaker 3: as my runner up.
Speaker 1: N nice. Yeah, I think Schwarmrsu Murakami and what could
Speaker 1: be an all time showdown would be special.
Speaker 3: I hope the bracket sets up that way. I agree,
Speaker 3: So make sure to go check out the Home Run derby. Obviously,
Speaker 3: if you're watching the show, you're probably gonna watch the
Speaker 3: Home Run Derby and also check us out at Other
Speaker 3: Half Brewing the day after the derby, Tuesday, July fourteenth,
Speaker 3: at seven pm Eastern. The boys are going to be
Speaker 3: at Other Half Brewing five dollars select beers. That should
Speaker 3: be enough to get you out there, but we're also
Speaker 3: going to be live MB trivia. We're going to be
Speaker 3: given out prizes. The Marine Layer Pod guys are going
Speaker 3: to be there at the entire Just Baseball staff. A
Speaker 3: bunch of people have rsvped already to head out to
Speaker 3: our event. Again. It's at Other Half Brewing in Philly
Speaker 3: Tuesday July fourteenth, from seven pm to eleven pm. We
Speaker 3: hope to see everybody there all right, Arm and I
Speaker 3: are going to talk about drafts superlatives, and Jack has
Speaker 3: to go take a flight, so he won't talk about
Speaker 3: the draft with us, but it's going to be really
Speaker 3: fun and podcast p I'm curious that we can hear
Speaker 3: from our friends from Hampton Farms before we talk about
Speaker 3: the draft.
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Speaker 3: Arm Draft superlatives. So, like we said at the beginning
Speaker 3: of the show, we did a three hour live stream.
Speaker 3: We went through every single pick with our thoughts, and
Speaker 3: now we've had some time to kind of sit with
Speaker 3: these opinions. Right. Yeah, And I'm really excited because we
Speaker 3: have the biggest winner of the draft, the biggest head
Speaker 3: scratcher pick, because you made a really good point when
Speaker 3: we were talking about the topics. Everybody wants to talk about, Oh,
Speaker 3: this team lost the draft or this pick was terrible.
Speaker 3: We have no idea. Let's not pretend, folks, that we
Speaker 3: have any idea how this eighteen year old high schooler
Speaker 3: is going to develop at the time. Could we disagree
Speaker 3: is the away from consensus? Sure? Sure, but we're not
Speaker 3: going to call it a bad pick because we don't
Speaker 3: know what the team saw that maybe we don't have
Speaker 3: access to.
Speaker 1: That's the biggest thing. I was going to say, Like,
Speaker 1: we might be right. I might be right if I
Speaker 1: don't like the pick, but they know that player more
Speaker 1: intimately than I do, so maybe there's something they know.
Speaker 1: So we could say it's a head scratcher. But yeah,
Speaker 1: I just can't subscribe to like you're the loser of
Speaker 1: the thing that we don't even have any results yet
Speaker 1: of how it may go exactly.
Speaker 3: And so we have the best value pick, we have
Speaker 3: the best fit, we have the most underrated pick. We
Speaker 3: have the highest ceiling of a player in this draft
Speaker 3: and also the highest floor. We also have quickest MLB
Speaker 3: and the biggest boom or bust prospect. So arm let's
Speaker 3: start at the top. Who was the biggest winner of
Speaker 3: the twenty twenty six draft.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I gotta go with it with a chalky answer,
Speaker 1: and I'm going to go with the team that had,
Speaker 1: you know, bonus pool allocation that was like the size
Speaker 1: of the GDP of like a small country. And it's
Speaker 1: the Chicago White Sox. You had the number one overall pick,
Speaker 1: but then you also have just a ridiculous amount of
Speaker 1: bonus pool money. Right, they go out and they make
Speaker 1: that trade, They trade Jacob Gonzalez, they get the compa
Speaker 1: pick to add a couple more million, you know, into
Speaker 1: their bonus pool, to put it over twenty million dollars.
Speaker 1: What do they do? They go out, they take the
Speaker 1: number one player in the class or you know what
Speaker 1: viewed by many as the number one player in the class.
Speaker 1: Then they go out and get a bunch of high upside,
Speaker 1: exciting prepsters beyond that where you'll get land and tell
Speaker 1: me which was like a shoe in to be added
Speaker 1: to the fold. Of course, son of Jim, tell me
Speaker 1: cole Prose's a guy that I think a lot of
Speaker 1: people are excited about and they're gonna have to pay
Speaker 1: a pretty penny to be able to add Alex Weinngartner,
Speaker 1: another prepster from Jersey that has tons of upside that
Speaker 1: they're excited to be able to sign, and again won't
Speaker 1: come cheap. There's several other prepsters that they took within
Speaker 1: the first fifteen picks that they are able to use
Speaker 1: their all time bonus pool, you know, bonus pool value
Speaker 1: to be able to sign these guys away from college commitments.
Speaker 1: You have, again one of the more accomplished college bats
Speaker 1: at the top, one of the best shortstop prospects we've
Speaker 1: seen in a very long time, and then you've got
Speaker 1: all of these high upside high school kids behind that
Speaker 1: that I think is really really exciting, mixing some college
Speaker 1: pieces as well. But I think just the way of
Speaker 1: balancing out number one pick in the draft with a
Speaker 1: ton of high upside prepsters, it's hard to argue against
Speaker 1: the White Sox being the team that you know, brought
Speaker 1: in the most talent to their organization. And that's what
Speaker 1: twenty and a half million dollars can do.
Speaker 3: For you, one hundred percent. And I also loved the
Speaker 3: pick of Joey Voulsko. He's pitched trut of the University
Speaker 3: of Georgia. He was one of my favorite pitchers to
Speaker 3: watch last year in college baseball, and I was shocked
Speaker 3: to see him go at pick seventy seven. But I
Speaker 3: also think there was the biggest loser that we didn't mention,
Speaker 3: and it's Rob Manfred when he mispronounced Rock Chalouski Arm.
Speaker 3: He's the Commissioner of Baseball and he's mispronouncing the number
Speaker 3: one pick and what I guess was the number one
Speaker 3: pick for what the last year, and he messes up
Speaker 3: his name. Dude. I mean, it's inexcuseable.
Speaker 1: It's crazy because we were at the Futures Games day
Speaker 1: and they put up like a highlight reel like we're
Speaker 1: just promoting the draft in the recent picks, and like
Speaker 1: very obviously, they didn't show the one to one pick.
Speaker 1: They went straight to like the number two pick, which
Speaker 1: was you know, him saying, here's Grady Emerson or whoever
Speaker 1: it was like with the number two pick, is Grady Emerson.
Speaker 1: The fact that for the remainder of time now, like
Speaker 1: any Rock Cholaski edit that the White Socks do, or
Speaker 1: that any team does, or you know that the league
Speaker 1: wants to do, and it's so classic. You always see
Speaker 1: like where it all began, right with the number one
Speaker 1: pick and it's Rock Chowlaski, and then it goes into
Speaker 1: the minor leagues and the majors and you see the
Speaker 1: whole progression, like we've seen those types of edits with
Speaker 1: Bobby Witt and all these different guys all the time
Speaker 1: that you can't do that beyond that. And obviously Rock
Speaker 1: was thrilled. He saw him get so emotional and it
Speaker 1: was just a special time for him regardless. But dude,
Speaker 1: this is the most special, like one of the most
Speaker 1: special days of his entire life, maybe the most at
Speaker 1: this point for him. And you're the commission Major League Baseball.
Speaker 1: The only thing you have to do is just pronounce
Speaker 1: his name. Right. It's just like a basic human right.
Speaker 1: We have just to pronounce our names, right. I think
Speaker 1: that is one of the most embarrassing faux pause I
Speaker 1: can remember the commissioner of any sport in a long time,
Speaker 1: and it may not seem like that big of a deal,
Speaker 1: but this was like the obvious one to one candidate,
Speaker 1: and if it didn't go one, you he was going
Speaker 1: in the top three picks. Has he never said his
Speaker 1: name once until that point? What? What happened? How does
Speaker 1: that happen? I think it's inexcusable and to me, like,
Speaker 1: I can't think of a justification for it other than
Speaker 1: Manfred just didn't care.
Speaker 3: I think that's the biggest blunder since the twenty twenty
Speaker 3: four All Star Game when that woman's saying the national anthem.
Speaker 3: Remember that was that the frigging no. Do you remember
Speaker 3: when the woman was intoxicating?
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, she was not, she was Yeah. That was bad.
Speaker 1: That was bad.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I think that is the biggest blunder since then
Speaker 3: on the public stage of an MLB event.
Speaker 1: Better or worse than calling the World Series Trophy a
Speaker 1: hunk of metal.
Speaker 3: I think it's the same. It's just all garbage. It's
Speaker 3: just all horrible looks for everybody.
Speaker 1: I think it's worse.
Speaker 3: It might be worse. I mean they're all bad. It's
Speaker 3: like they're all zero out of tens the number one,
Speaker 3: they're all zero. Yeah, it's the number one pick. I
Speaker 3: don't know what. I can't believe they did that or
Speaker 3: Rob Manford did that? All right? My biggest winner was
Speaker 3: also the White Sox for basically everything that you said.
Speaker 3: When you have the most bonus pull money, you pick
Speaker 3: number one overall, the fan base goes wild. That's the
Speaker 3: biggest winner of the draft. There were plenty of other winners.
Speaker 3: A lot of teams had really good drafts. Was there
Speaker 3: any that off the top of your mind, Like, I'm
Speaker 3: sure the White Sox were the biggest winner, but there
Speaker 3: was plenty of winners.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I loved Oakland or oh, I love
Speaker 1: the Athletics draft. You know, Drew Burris slipping quote unquote
Speaker 1: to eight might sound crazy to say slip, but I
Speaker 1: just I just love what he's able to bring to
Speaker 1: the table. And I think he's a guy that you
Speaker 1: should have won a couple of picks earlier so to
Speaker 1: be able to get him. And then Mason Edwards to
Speaker 1: grab you know, the lefty there at the forty seventh pick,
Speaker 1: and then gave Gackle, Like, I just love their top
Speaker 1: three picks a lot. I think Roman Martin's a sneaky
Speaker 1: guy that they got in the fourth round. You know,
Speaker 1: it's kind of a little bit shocky college guys, but
Speaker 1: I think all guys that they were very happy and
Speaker 1: fortunate to have kind of like and where they landed.
Speaker 1: So I really liked the Athletics draft, and I even thought,
Speaker 1: you know that the Brewers as always like they're going
Speaker 1: to have and we're gonna talk about them a little
Speaker 1: bit more because there's some overlap here. But the tray
Speaker 1: Evil fit is cool because you know, his brother Brady
Speaker 1: is you know, really been tearing it up in the
Speaker 1: Brewer system, and I know they love him Strasneider will
Speaker 1: talk about a little bit later we but to be
Speaker 1: able to get him in the second round a knack
Speaker 1: with their fifth round pick was exciting. I know there's
Speaker 1: several other picks that Tyler was really bullish on as well.
Speaker 1: The Brewers always do quite a good job. But it
Speaker 1: was funny going through it. You know, every team's process
Speaker 1: has just become so refined that you can look at
Speaker 1: every draft and kind of understand what they were thinking,
Speaker 1: how they were approaching it, and you know, kind of
Speaker 1: get behind it. Yeah.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, And sorry, I just got thrown off a little
Speaker 3: bit because my computer is about to die. Folks were
Speaker 3: in Philly. You know, things are a little bit messed up.
Speaker 3: We're trying to give you the best live stream possible.
Speaker 3: But before I plug in my laptop. Let's talk about
Speaker 3: the biggest head scratcher, biggest head scratcher in this draft,
Speaker 3: the pick that just made you you don't understand. It's
Speaker 3: not like it's a bad pick, because again, I don't
Speaker 3: think any of us can call anything a bad pick
Speaker 3: at this point. We already talked about that. But the
Speaker 3: move the draft pick that just made you go, what.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know like he could age really well.
Speaker 1: And I would venture to guess that the I know
Speaker 1: that the the Royals love Zion Rose, and so maybe
Speaker 1: there's something there that that they see and and I
Speaker 1: mean I what I do see with Zion Rose at
Speaker 1: six overall is he's one of the better bat to
Speaker 1: ball guys that we saw in this draft. My concern is,
Speaker 1: while he's a good athlete, there's not a ton of
Speaker 1: defensive value yet. I think there's there's some some hope
Speaker 1: that he can maybe move over to center and give
Speaker 1: you value there. But my concern with Rose is as
Speaker 1: good as he is back to ball wise, I don't
Speaker 1: know how much confidence I have in the consistency quality
Speaker 1: of contact. Wise, he's not as good at being able
Speaker 1: or to consistently pull the ball as you'd probably like
Speaker 1: to see, and I think that limits him some. I
Speaker 1: think that results in a lot more like inside out
Speaker 1: swings and then you probably want to see. I do
Speaker 1: have some concern that it's just gonna be an uphill
Speaker 1: battle for Rose compared to some of the other guys
Speaker 1: that were drafted in that range to get to that
Speaker 1: three plus war plateau. He has tools, I know, the
Speaker 1: makeup is lauded incredibly well. People really like what he
Speaker 1: brings to the table. He's obviously a winner, Like there's
Speaker 1: a lot of intangibles to like. But when you look
Speaker 1: at what the Royals did after that, because you imagine
Speaker 1: that's a big savings pick, Like a lot of people
Speaker 1: thought that the Royals may get Rose with their thirtieth
Speaker 1: overall selection, there wasn't like that clear, clear, clear cut,
Speaker 1: you know, overslot guy that I think compensates for I
Speaker 1: rab was a good pick. Like there's a couple other
Speaker 1: guys that I know, you know, Tyler had mentioned, we're intriguing,
Speaker 1: like Kendon Johnson. I'm sure he's going to get an
Speaker 1: overslot deal. There's a couple other guys that you could
Speaker 1: look at and say are probably going to get an
Speaker 1: overslot deal. But at the same time, I don't know
Speaker 1: if there was that clear cut man they were able
Speaker 1: to snag him like they were able to get you
Speaker 1: get by him down to the fourth round. Like you
Speaker 1: google the Red Sox. What they do is Shaffner. There's
Speaker 1: a couple guys that they bought down that I think
Speaker 1: made it make a lot of sense with the Royals,
Speaker 1: at least at this present moment, I don't see that
Speaker 1: to make it make sense to go Zion Rose at
Speaker 1: number six when you had some of the guys that
Speaker 1: were available on the board, including you know, like a
Speaker 1: Drew Burris or an Eric Booth.
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I think that is the answer. But if
Speaker 3: I were to get a second pick in there, I
Speaker 3: think I would go with the Mets taking Carson Wiggins.
Speaker 3: And basically I'm looking at Tyler Jennings, who does such
Speaker 3: a great job again at just baseball dot Com made
Speaker 3: a big board of three hundred and thirteen prospects, and
Speaker 3: with the twenty seventh pick in the draft, the Mets
Speaker 3: drafted Carson Wiggins. He is ranked one hundred and forty
Speaker 3: third on Tyler's big board. And it's not me necessarily
Speaker 3: just looking at the big board and seeing the biggest difference.
Speaker 3: It's also like this guy pitched at Arkansas and he's
Speaker 3: mostly a two pitch guy. He's got this buzzsawv of fastball.
Speaker 3: He's got a great fastball, there's no doubt about it.
Speaker 3: That's I'm sure what Dave Stearnson company saw and said
Speaker 3: we can build off that. Right now, he's kind of
Speaker 3: working with a fastball that's in the upper nine. He's
Speaker 3: even touched one hundred miles an hour and a really
Speaker 3: really good slider. However, he only sometimes will toss in
Speaker 3: a curveball, and he has major command issues. So you're
Speaker 3: talking about a guy who has huge reliever risk in
Speaker 3: the first round. And it's not reliever risk just because
Speaker 3: he has command issues, but he has four pitches. It's
Speaker 3: double reliever risk because he really only has two pitches.
Speaker 3: And I just felt like at that part of the
Speaker 3: draft again, it confused me. Could he go to the
Speaker 3: Mets and they turn him around completely, They give him
Speaker 3: one or two more pitches and they will find the
Speaker 3: command and that fastball really plays up and he ends
Speaker 3: up being a steal Absolutely. But at the current moment,
Speaker 3: looking at Tyler's Big Board, ranked one hundred and forty three.
Speaker 3: Watching him at Arkansas just be inconsistent and the command
Speaker 3: was not there, knowing he has two pitches, I was
Speaker 3: surprised to see him go again twenty seventh overall.
Speaker 1: And I think another part of that equation was that
Speaker 1: the health side a little bit clearly the Mets, who
Speaker 1: have let medicals stop them from signing their first round
Speaker 1: pick in the past. We'll see what happens here, but
Speaker 1: I'd imagine that they're gonna They're gonna sign Wiggins. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they clearly feel okay about it. There's a fun temple
Speaker 1: to start with when you've got the heater. But I
Speaker 1: agree with the time that he's missed with the lack
Speaker 1: of polish. Overall, the Mets see something, and you know,
Speaker 1: with pitchers especially like things changed so quickly as you
Speaker 1: alluded to, so it could make sense quite quickly. But
Speaker 1: at this present moment, I do agree that it could
Speaker 1: seem like it may not be the best value at
Speaker 1: this point because I also know that that Tyler didn't
Speaker 1: love the Robbins pick either, and so it's like, if
Speaker 1: you didn't flank that with a pick that maybe made
Speaker 1: it make sense. If it's a savings pick on the
Speaker 1: top as well, it can become a little bit more
Speaker 1: of a head scratcher, exactly.
Speaker 3: Let's move over to the next one, which is the
Speaker 3: best value pick in the draft? Right? You know, we
Speaker 3: could dive into the fifth and sixth round, but I'm
Speaker 3: sure we're likely going to be focusing still on the
Speaker 3: first couple of rounds unless you want to go deeper.
Speaker 3: But who is your best value pick?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 3: We're looking at was this guy draft in the second
Speaker 3: you thought he should have gone to the first, you know,
Speaker 3: signing bonus everything. Best value pick?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's probably Sawyer Strasneider just lent into
Speaker 1: the Brewers where he did in the second round. With Strasneider,
Speaker 1: I just I feel like there's a very exciting skill
Speaker 1: set here. There's a little bit of concern that he
Speaker 1: may swing and miss, but now you put him in
Speaker 1: this organization with the Brewers that have just done such
Speaker 1: an incredible job at developing hitters, and hey, you think
Speaker 1: about that fit too. We're gonna talk about fit, but
Speaker 1: just in general, you're getting a guy that I thought
Speaker 1: was a top twenty player in the class, and you
Speaker 1: could make a case was maybe a top fifteen player
Speaker 1: in this class. I thought was one of the more
Speaker 1: exciting of those Tier two bats, and you get him
Speaker 1: at sixty six. I think that's a really good value
Speaker 1: pick there by the Brewers, who just consistently draft quite well.
Speaker 1: But the bat speed stands out to me. The bats
Speaker 1: of ball. Again, there is some with concern, but the
Speaker 1: contact right was right there with like a Ace Reese
Speaker 1: and Tyler Bell, And so when you look at it
Speaker 1: from that perspective, like you got him a lot later
Speaker 1: than those guys, I think he's a better athlete than
Speaker 1: he's getting credit for. Might give him some running center,
Speaker 1: but ultimately I think you play a solid corner the Armstrong.
Speaker 1: I just feel like the some of this guy's parts
Speaker 1: are are are quite good, and I was so very
Speaker 1: surprised to see him slide out of that first round.
Speaker 1: And I do wonder if maybe the Brewers was able
Speaker 1: to buy him down a little bit there with the
Speaker 1: evil pick at the top.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're gonna get two best fits soon. And I
Speaker 3: really love the fit with sort of show center with
Speaker 3: the Brewers because I think there is hit tool concerns there.
Speaker 3: Who's pretty good at teaching guys how to hit. Yeah,
Speaker 3: Milwaukee Berds, they might be the best at it. Right,
Speaker 3: the way they turned around Andrew Vaughn turned around a
Speaker 3: number of guys, I mean, right, they get, you know,
Speaker 3: a bunch of praise and deservedly so for turning around
Speaker 3: all these pitchers. They're doing the same with the bats,
Speaker 3: like Garrett Mitchell has been banged up and hurt and
Speaker 3: incredibly consistent, but he just keeps getting better and better. Right,
Speaker 3: They've turned around a number of guys. So for a
Speaker 3: guy with hit tool concerns, with a lot of other tools,
Speaker 3: to go over to the Brewers, it's hard not to
Speaker 3: really like that one. My mine is another really good
Speaker 3: organization with a guy that we talked about at length
Speaker 3: on the draft stream. That's Bo Lawrence, Bo Lawrence whatever.
Speaker 3: All I know is he's six for five, two hundred pounds,
Speaker 3: and he's got a really really smooth swing. He's a
Speaker 3: prep guy. But I think, and you correct me if
Speaker 3: I'm wrong, here are the fact that he's an older eighteen,
Speaker 3: that he's nineteen years old. Do you think that these
Speaker 3: draft models who are trying to get guys in their
Speaker 3: organizations younger and younger maybe overlooked him just because in
Speaker 3: terms of the prep guys he's one of the older players.
Speaker 1: It's it's interesting because, like even then, I feel like,
Speaker 1: if you're on the right side of of nineteen, it's
Speaker 1: such a crazy phrase to say you're generally going to
Speaker 1: be five, but maybe that could bake into it. I
Speaker 1: do know even a matter of a few months does
Speaker 1: sway these draft models, generally speaking. But I think that
Speaker 1: was a heck of a grab there for the Dodgers,
Speaker 1: and I had him as my most underrated pick because
Speaker 1: there's kind of an overlap there, because I mean, when
Speaker 1: with Laurns, you're getting somebody that is six foot five
Speaker 1: with a great feel to hit, that already has shown
Speaker 1: improved athleticism, which you don't typically see for a guy
Speaker 1: that's that lanky and big for his size. You just
Speaker 1: see like the awkward baby draft thing. Instead, you have
Speaker 1: a really smooth swing and a guy that's continued to
Speaker 1: develop and move his feet better on the left side
Speaker 1: of the infield. Probably gonna play third base, but looks
Speaker 1: like he's gonna have a chance to stick there and
Speaker 1: provide some value there. And then you think about how
Speaker 1: much power he can grow into with such an easy
Speaker 1: and smooth swing as he just continues to fill out
Speaker 1: and yeah, just kind of generate a little bit more
Speaker 1: whip and this could be a very fun combination of
Speaker 1: hit and power. And you talk about an organization that
Speaker 1: can help maximize that, I think you're gonna Seelronce be
Speaker 1: able to get a lot more out of his base
Speaker 1: and just to tap into more juice in an organization
Speaker 1: like the Dodgers, who is just just consistently helped their players.
Speaker 3: Do that, Dodgers getting value picks. I bet it's making
Speaker 3: everybody in the YouTube chat just squirm. Thank you everybody
Speaker 3: joining live here on YouTube. Hopefully you guys enjoyed the
Speaker 3: draft stream yesterday and you're currently enjoying this dream. The
Speaker 3: best way to support this dream for absolutely free, all
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Speaker 3: five star review. All right, let's get over to best fit.
Speaker 3: So a player like we've kind of already talked about
Speaker 3: some of these guys where you know, it might be
Speaker 3: a profile that has a problem, but they go to
Speaker 3: an organization that's the best at fixing that problem. Arm
Speaker 3: who's your best fit of the draft.
Speaker 1: So for me, I want a little bit different from
Speaker 1: that path because I do have a couple of guys
Speaker 1: I didn't kind of fit that mold, and like Strasnider
Speaker 1: is one of those. But in terms of the best fit,
Speaker 1: I just thought about like kind of needing each other.
Speaker 1: And I go to Jackson, Flora with the San Francisco Giants,
Speaker 1: and you have a Bay Area kid. You have the
Speaker 1: top right hander in the class and the top pitcher
Speaker 1: in the class comfortably, and you have a Giants organization
Speaker 1: that really needs pitching help. I mean, and we talk
Speaker 1: about not really drafting on need shore, but like when
Speaker 1: you think about the fit and what he brings to
Speaker 1: this organization immediately, we just put out our Giants' top
Speaker 1: fifteen prospects and they have two right handed pitching prospects
Speaker 1: in the top fifteen, both are at low A. So
Speaker 1: when you bring in a guy that could kind of
Speaker 1: immediately you get assign him straight to the Texas League
Speaker 1: to double A and just watch him overwhelm hitters. Also,
Speaker 1: the fastball is clearly plus, the sleeper is gross, and
Speaker 1: he has two variations of that breaking ball ones that
Speaker 1: a little bit harder as well. That looks like it's gross,
Speaker 1: and then you have a kick change that's developing as well.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's just comfortably going to be the best
Speaker 1: pitching prospect in that system. And their next best pitching
Speaker 1: prospect is a righty with a nasty sweeper and a
Speaker 1: good fastball and Kinder Martinez, but again he's at low A.
Speaker 1: So I love what Flora brings there as a Bay
Speaker 1: Area kid, and I'm sure he's thrilled to be, you know,
Speaker 1: in that organization. It just felt like both both sides,
Speaker 1: it just matched up perfectly.
Speaker 3: I love that I tried to find a guy who
Speaker 3: you know, has a couple of issues, but the team
Speaker 3: that he went to are going to be able to
Speaker 3: resolve those. And I thought a perfect example of that
Speaker 3: was Liam Peterson going to the Cleveland Guardians. Because Liam
Speaker 3: Peterson watching him at Florida, I was always just perpetually
Speaker 3: disappointed in him, And I don't mean it in a
Speaker 3: bad way. It's just because I saw so much talent.
Speaker 3: He has incredible stuff. If you look at some of
Speaker 3: these stuff plus models, like our friend Lance Brazowski put
Speaker 3: out his top arms in this draft and it was
Speaker 3: Jackson Flora one, and it was Liam Peterson two. And
Speaker 3: a big reason why is he was noting you know,
Speaker 3: all the different offerings that he has. You know, his
Speaker 3: ability to spin the baseball. He's got a great fastball.
Speaker 3: He just has really good stuff, but the command can
Speaker 3: get a little bit out of whack right even control
Speaker 3: within the zone, he's just simply not throwing strikes forget command.
Speaker 3: Control goes out the window with him sometimes. And at
Speaker 3: the University of Florida, they don't have the best pitching
Speaker 3: development generally when looking at some of the top programs
Speaker 3: in college baseball. So I just feel like it is
Speaker 3: a guy who could be great and who just brought
Speaker 3: him in the Cleveland Guardians, one of the best organizations
Speaker 3: for pitching development. So I was actually curious where Peterson
Speaker 3: was going to go in this draft because I thought, oh,
Speaker 3: if he goes to a team that doesn't have great development,
Speaker 3: I don't know how well it's going to work. But
Speaker 3: once he landed with the Guardians, if everyone was watching
Speaker 3: the draft stream, if you saw me smile, that was
Speaker 3: my biggest smile from the whole draft, because I thought
Speaker 3: that is perfect. Put him there and the Guardians are
Speaker 3: going to make him a frontline guy, So I thought
Speaker 3: that fit was perfect, perfect.
Speaker 1: I like that one on a good shout from coach
Speaker 1: TK get me a good correction on me Giants double
Speaker 1: A is not in the Texas League. What am I
Speaker 1: doing here? I'm supposed to know minor league ball.
Speaker 3: I love our chat some of the smartest people and
Speaker 3: especially in our discord too. And if you want to
Speaker 3: continue to talk draft stuff, you know Derby All Star Weekend,
Speaker 3: everything up until the deadline. It's a perfect time to
Speaker 3: join our discord again, which you can find in the
Speaker 3: episode description. But special shout out to our chat smartest
Speaker 3: baseball people out there, no doubt about it. All Right,
Speaker 3: So we still have most underrated pick, highest ceiling, highest floor,
Speaker 3: quickest to MLB, and the biggest boom or bust prospect.
Speaker 3: But podcast P I think it's a good time to
Speaker 3: hear one last time from our friends at Hampton Farms Peanuts.
Speaker 3: So let's talk about the most underrated pick in the
Speaker 3: twenty twenty six MLB draft. I can go first, Let
Speaker 3: me go first. Why not let me first? I went
Speaker 3: with Cam Fluky to the Detroit Tigers, and they might
Speaker 3: not seem underrated, but here's my take. I think he
Speaker 3: ends up being the best pitcher from this draft. That's
Speaker 3: the take.
Speaker 1: Better than Flora.
Speaker 3: I don't think he's better than Flora now.
Speaker 1: No, like you think he's gonna be better than Flora.
Speaker 3: I think he's going to be better than Flora. I
Speaker 3: see a lot of Tyler glass Now in his game,
Speaker 3: because first of all, I think he has potentially electric fastball.
Speaker 3: But the problem is and the reason why he dropped
Speaker 3: a little bit. I mean, this was starting pitcher one
Speaker 3: going into the college baseball season, but unfortunately he got injured,
Speaker 3: came back, was a little bit inconsistent, But we know pitchers,
Speaker 3: these guys get hurt. But this guy just has stupid,
Speaker 3: loud stuff. And you see that curveball that is very
Speaker 3: similar to Glass now, which the one that just falls
Speaker 3: off the table. But he also has this mid eighties
Speaker 3: to high eighties slider that I've also seen work really well,
Speaker 3: and he's even danced around with a change up a
Speaker 3: little bit. I mean there's potentially four offerings high nineties heater,
Speaker 3: and he's a big guy extension down the mound. Like
Speaker 3: I think that the injury and post injury inconsistencies dropped
Speaker 3: him down the board. But if he came out and
Speaker 3: had the season that I think people were expecting before
Speaker 3: the injury. This guy could have been taken number one,
Speaker 3: not overall over Rock as the number one pitcher in
Speaker 3: this draft. So the fact that he fell to twenty three,
Speaker 3: and you look at the numbers two right, the numbers,
Speaker 3: the surface level era numbers, they don't jump out at anyone.
Speaker 3: I saw Tigers fans being like, Scott Harris took what
Speaker 3: a guy with a mid four zra Like what? And
Speaker 3: I'm thinking to myself, I think Scott Harris crushed this pick.
Speaker 3: I love Cam Fluke. I think he will end up
Speaker 3: being the best pitcher from this draft.
Speaker 1: If Scott Harris deviated from prep, a prep hitter with
Speaker 1: a college right handed arm, I think there's something he's
Speaker 1: really liking here, and I would imagine that he probably
Speaker 1: was their best player available at that point. I would
Speaker 1: just that's pure conjecture, but just knowing how Harris has
Speaker 1: typically approached the draft and just generally not being an
Speaker 1: archetype that he goes after as as frequently, I do
Speaker 1: you agree that this is probably somebody that they were
Speaker 1: very excited to add. And I think the secondary command
Speaker 1: is going to be an important thing to monitor. But
Speaker 1: it's not that the secondaries aren't good. There. The gyro
Speaker 1: slider looks like it can be a good bridge pitch,
Speaker 1: and as you mentioned, like the curve ball is a banger.
Speaker 1: The challenge is those bangers can be hard to land consistently,
Speaker 1: so just finding he has some more consistency with that
Speaker 1: will be big for Fluki. It's a long arm action,
Speaker 1: so you know, it might just be the way he
Speaker 1: throws and he can time it up, and he has
Speaker 1: shown the ability to time it up pretty consistently in
Speaker 1: the past, getting hurt I think really through a wrench
Speaker 1: in his progress and of course in his draft stock.
Speaker 1: But there's a guy that could absolutely be a monster,
Speaker 1: And in terms of upside, it's hard to argue that
Speaker 1: there's another one, maybe outside of Rojas, because you'reeting a
Speaker 1: prep left to you throws fuel, but that has more upside.
Speaker 1: The way, if you look at Flora and Rojas, the
Speaker 1: next time that has the most upside is comfortably Fluky,
Speaker 1: and I don't think there's anybody else that's close.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I love the pick Fluke did the Tigers,
Speaker 3: and a reason why I called it underrated is, you know,
Speaker 3: post everyone's giving their takes. I didn't hear one freaking
Speaker 3: take about cam Fluki and then yeah, I'm looking at
Speaker 3: Tigers fans and they don't like the pick. I'm like,
Speaker 3: what the hell?
Speaker 1: I loved the pick.
Speaker 3: It was one of my favorite picks, So I thought
Speaker 3: it's underrated for me for based on what I'm seeing.
Speaker 3: Maybe some other Tigers fans are loving it. Maybe I
Speaker 3: just didn't see some people also saying that they love it.
Speaker 3: But yeah, rating fell for me. I totally hear that.
Speaker 1: I didn't really see many opinions at all.
Speaker 3: I love the pick, and that's.
Speaker 1: The thing for me, going back to you know, the
Speaker 1: player we already mentioned and Bogloran, so I don't want
Speaker 1: to go too deep into it again. But maybe part
Speaker 1: of it's because just no one wants to see the
Speaker 1: Dodgers succeed, but you know, and maybe Dodgers fans in
Speaker 1: particular probably very excited about this. But to be able
Speaker 1: to get Lauren's at forty, I think is really exciting.
Speaker 1: Not often do you get a high school bat with
Speaker 1: the relatively higher for than most high school bats that
Speaker 1: you see in the high ceiling. To put in that organization,
Speaker 1: I think it's just so exciting. I thought he was
Speaker 1: a top twenty, you know player in this class. I
Speaker 1: thought he's a guy that could have went in the
Speaker 1: middle of the first round. So the fact that the
Speaker 1: Dodgers are able to get him there at forty when
Speaker 1: you know they're not working we're talking about bonus pools,
Speaker 1: they're not working with too much. They're they're very limited
Speaker 1: because of you know, the restrictions that come with spending
Speaker 1: as much money as they do. Like that was their
Speaker 1: first selection. And with your first selection, when you got
Speaker 1: to wait to pick forty and then by the way,
Speaker 1: you're not going to pick again till pick one thirty two,
Speaker 1: and then you're not gonna pick again to pick two
Speaker 1: twenty three, you really are hoping that you're gonna get
Speaker 1: somebody to land into your lap there. And and also
Speaker 1: like they're gonna have to make the numbers work because
Speaker 1: they don't have a big bonus pool and I don't
Speaker 1: think Alron's is going to be signing for anything less
Speaker 1: than at least the full slot value there. So I
Speaker 1: think it's a it was an underrated selection that you know,
Speaker 1: when you have a class like this, you might they
Speaker 1: might be able to snipe a couple of players in
Speaker 1: those later round because if they're the freaking Dodgers and
Speaker 1: they have so many scouts and they do a good
Speaker 1: job on that front. But I think with the draft
Speaker 1: like this, like Laurns can can make or break it
Speaker 1: in a lot of ways because they just again they
Speaker 1: have one pick in the top one thirty, and so
Speaker 1: the fact that it's a guy like Arons that fell
Speaker 1: to them, I think is it's really underrated at how
Speaker 1: much he can end up making this draft class.
Speaker 3: Let's go to the highest ceiling. And my answer is
Speaker 3: going to be quick because I think I've said this
Speaker 3: one eighty thousand times. I think Von Lackey could be JT.
Speaker 3: Real Muto with power, with more power. And we were
Speaker 3: even talking about it on the couch last night and
Speaker 3: Peyton goes, so you think von Lackey can be a
Speaker 3: Hall of Famer And I go, I don't know about
Speaker 3: hall of famer and he goes, JT. Real Muto with
Speaker 3: more power as a hall of Famer, and then I
Speaker 3: give him a little smile and I'm like, yeah, I
Speaker 3: think he could be a Hall of Famer. I freaking
Speaker 3: love Von Lackey. So Von Lackey again last year hit
Speaker 3: three ninety seven with a twelve ninety one OPS at
Speaker 3: the catcher position for the Minnesota Twins, and he was
Speaker 3: a brick wall behind home plate. You knew when you
Speaker 3: were facing Georgia Tech you were not stealing a base.
Speaker 3: Why Von Lackey shuts down running games and he also
Speaker 3: shuts down pass balls and wild pitches. Nothing gets by
Speaker 3: this guy. Now, the framing, that's something that's the next
Speaker 3: point that needs to develop. But over the last five
Speaker 3: years watching college baseball, I would say he's the second
Speaker 3: best defense and defender at the catching position behind Caden Bodined.
Speaker 3: I think he's that level of a defender, and if
Speaker 3: I think he improves receiving wise, this guy could go
Speaker 3: win a Gold Glove. And then we get to the
Speaker 3: offense where it's freakish, freakish baseball abilities, Like I love
Speaker 3: the way that you were breaking it down where you
Speaker 3: know what, instead of saying you broke it down, why
Speaker 3: he's to break it down?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, he's just he's a guy that just
Speaker 1: was a late bloomer in baseball in general, like under
Speaker 1: recruited and really broke out two years ago and then
Speaker 1: followed it up with the year that he had this year.
Speaker 1: And I think the biggest thing is you just kind
Speaker 1: of see an athlete going out there and just competing.
Speaker 1: I don't think there's a ton of focus on mechanics,
Speaker 1: and I think he's refined them a bunch for sure
Speaker 1: as he's played more. But it's just a really good
Speaker 1: athlete going out there and just doing his thing. And
Speaker 1: I think guys he continues to refine the mechanics more
Speaker 1: and more, it's only going to help him. But you
Speaker 1: just see the athleticism in the box. It's a huge gather.
Speaker 1: It gets to like his front foot's almost touching his
Speaker 1: back foot, but he's still able to just control his
Speaker 1: weight so well. He's able to hold backside and adjust,
Speaker 1: and the feel for the barrel, I mean, it's just pretty.
Speaker 1: It's just so impressive that a guy that again just
Speaker 1: kind of looks like he's going up there and playing
Speaker 1: wof fotball has the body control that he has. And
Speaker 1: I do think there's gonna be some some little things
Speaker 1: to simplifies he gets the pro ball, maybe the gather
Speaker 1: doesn't need to be that pronounced. He can find the
Speaker 1: back hip and coil a little bit more easily without
Speaker 1: such a big move. Maybe the hands don't move as late,
Speaker 1: but I think that's part of the intrigue with the
Speaker 1: von Lackiez. He just kind of looks like he's going
Speaker 1: out there and playing and making it look so good
Speaker 1: despite that.
Speaker 3: One hundred percent so I and again I say g Chrumuto,
Speaker 3: not because because of the defense, but also because of
Speaker 3: the sneaky speed right stole what fifteen sixteen bases last
Speaker 3: year for Georgia Tech. Like he's a good runner, he's
Speaker 3: got stupid juice. He has very similar batted ball metrics
Speaker 3: to Rockchulowski, who also has stupid juice. And he also
Speaker 3: has a high ceiling as well, and went number one overall,
Speaker 3: getting the highest bonus for a number one pick in
Speaker 3: the history of the draft. And they're very similar. And
Speaker 3: I think that Von Lackey could end up being a
Speaker 3: better catcher defensively than Rok Chulowski is a shortstop. And
Speaker 3: that's not even saying that Rock Chilowski is a bad
Speaker 3: defender at shortstop. That's not even saying he's average. I
Speaker 3: think he's gonna be really good. I just think Von
Speaker 3: Lackey could be a difference maker behind the plate and
Speaker 3: then the makeup. I think it's Adie Graad makeup. Seriously,
Speaker 3: He's like one of my favorite personalities I've ever seen,
Speaker 3: Like the way his Georgia Tech teammates talk about him,
Speaker 3: Drew Burris when they finally lost that last game and
Speaker 3: he's speaking about Von Lackey and his postgame presser, and
Speaker 3: before he could even talk about Lackey, he started choking
Speaker 3: up about how much he meant to him, like and
Speaker 3: Drew Burris is the leader, like he said, he's his
Speaker 3: favorite player he's ever watched, Like Von Lackey, I think
Speaker 3: is just I'm in love with the man. I'm in
Speaker 3: love with him, and I'm not afraid to say it.
Speaker 1: So now I do see I do see him as
Speaker 1: kind of an orc shifter in the way that he
Speaker 1: goes about his business and as a catcher and the
Speaker 1: culture you know that just there's all these things that
Speaker 1: I think you look at and you say, that's it's
Speaker 1: really exciting to bring this guy into your organization. And uh,
Speaker 1: just beyond that, even if he doesn't reach his ceiling offensively,
Speaker 1: with the defensive prowess he has, with the ability to
Speaker 1: just carry himself at a high level and I think
Speaker 1: he's going to grow into a really good just just
Speaker 1: pitch caller, just game manager, however you want to call it.
Speaker 1: He just seems like he checks all the boxes that
Speaker 1: you want out of a catcher.
Speaker 3: What about you, who has the highest ceiling?
Speaker 1: I gotta go with with Eric Booth Junior. I think
Speaker 1: when you have a player like this, where you have
Speaker 1: an elite runner with plus defense in center field and
Speaker 1: he's flashed comfortably above average power as well from the
Speaker 1: left side, I mean, I think this has got to
Speaker 1: be the highest ceiling if everything comes together the swing
Speaker 1: mechanics and use some refining. I think there's you can
Speaker 1: see in the video like there's a little bit of
Speaker 1: a hitch in the swing. But even with that, his
Speaker 1: bats of ball has been as good as any prepster
Speaker 1: in the class. And I think it's only going to
Speaker 1: improve as that kind of hitch as he brings his
Speaker 1: hands down lad and and a little bit of a
Speaker 1: flat path gets smoothed out. You've seen rags of losses
Speaker 1: that are comfortably above average. He's physical. His dad played
Speaker 1: football and I think was a record breaking like kick
Speaker 1: returner in college. You can see the explosiveness. You can
Speaker 1: see the twitch and you pair of that with impact defensively,
Speaker 1: the ability to impact the baseball, a good feel for
Speaker 1: the barrel, and it's like, this guy could be a
Speaker 1: five tool star if it all comes together.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love the pick. And I remember I was
Speaker 3: running some of my pro comps by Tyler and I
Speaker 3: was like, is it crazy to say he's kind of
Speaker 3: like Corbin Carroll? And Tyler goes, no, not really, right
Speaker 3: if he achieves that ceiling that we're talking about with
Speaker 3: the explosion at the plate, the ton of speed on
Speaker 3: the base is the ability to defend the position, But
Speaker 3: we're talking about ceiling, and now we're going to talk
Speaker 3: about floor, like who has the highest floor? Mine is simple.
Speaker 3: I would be shocked if Rock Schwlowski isn't at least
Speaker 3: a pretty good big leaguer, Like, you know, I think
Speaker 3: you talked about some of the slight concerns that you
Speaker 3: have with his swing a little bit. That hitch that
Speaker 3: he has, isn't that his only issue? I think defensively,
Speaker 3: he's going to feel this position. He's got a good arm,
Speaker 3: He's always had a ton of power at every stop
Speaker 3: he's gone through, Like he's been one of the best
Speaker 3: players in college baseball now for a while, in you know,
Speaker 3: only a few short years, he's just done everything that's
Speaker 3: been asked of him and put up stupid numbers at
Speaker 3: every stop. Like this is the guy. He's the number
Speaker 3: one overall pick. I think I'm not saying his floor
Speaker 3: is Dansby. It's not, because again you never know with
Speaker 3: number one overall picks, we never know. But I feel
Speaker 3: like his thirtieth percentile outcomes dance Py Swants and who
Speaker 3: signed a one hundred and seventy five million dollar contract.
Speaker 3: And I'm not saying I think Von Lucky is a
Speaker 3: higher ceiling. I think Grady Emerson potentially is a higher ceiling.
Speaker 3: But if we're talking about floor, he is a big leaguer,
Speaker 3: I mean, and I think he's a good one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, when you defend the position like that, and then
Speaker 1: you look at what he's been able to do just
Speaker 1: offensively in his track record. Right, this is a guy
Speaker 1: that was a top two ish round pick prospect out
Speaker 1: of high school and then he goes to UCLA and
Speaker 1: just puts up in a thousand ops in three years,
Speaker 1: you know, well, above average contact right stand out, EV's
Speaker 1: a good feel for the strike zone, like he has
Speaker 1: the pedigree, and he's been one of the more you know,
Speaker 1: I think I would say well followed prospects in a
Speaker 1: while that you look at and you just say, you
Speaker 1: keep putting up these these these high bars for him,
Speaker 1: and he just keeps meeting them. And that's always going
Speaker 1: to happen anytime a guy's a legit draft prospecting him
Speaker 1: aout Dylan Cruz, right, and like Dylan Cruise is kind
Speaker 1: of a guy that's not reaching his median outcome right now,
Speaker 1: and even then, I think what we're seeing this year
Speaker 1: is like, even if he's in his twentyeth thirtieth percent
Speaker 1: our outcome, he's still going to be a big ligger
Speaker 1: for a little while. I for a while with Rock Chulawski,
Speaker 1: he's just you have the track record that he has
Speaker 1: as a top high school guy going to college, having
Speaker 1: the success that he's had. And my one gripe, I
Speaker 1: guess right, the little nitpick that you can have with
Speaker 1: him is some of the little swing mechanic aspects, and
Speaker 1: I think it could cause you know, how late the
Speaker 1: hands have to come back up and where the barrel tips.
Speaker 1: He could cause a little bit of challenges maybe on
Speaker 1: stuff in I don't love like how he gets so
Speaker 1: deep into his base two strikes, But even with all
Speaker 1: of that, he put up some of the better, you know,
Speaker 1: contact traits of these top bats in the class. He
Speaker 1: put up ridiculous eggs, velosities. We saw him consistently slug,
Speaker 1: and I mean he has the ability to manipulate his
Speaker 1: swing in his path to you know.
Speaker 3: Make it work.
Speaker 1: Like there's times where he's getting crowded inside and he
Speaker 1: can just pull his hands in and almost put a
Speaker 1: half swing and punch a ball still over the wall
Speaker 1: and left field. There's times where pitches are breaking away
Speaker 1: and he's a little bit late and he can still
Speaker 1: just shoot it the other way. And then when he
Speaker 1: gets his A plus swing off like it is incredibly impressive.
Speaker 1: So the ability to just just kind of maneuver and
Speaker 1: manipulate with his swing tells me that I think he
Speaker 1: can make those little refinements to smooth things out and
Speaker 1: make it translate more quickly to upper level baseball, because
Speaker 1: you know he's going to be challenged quite quickly. And
Speaker 1: then when you are a defender like he is a shortstop,
Speaker 1: you have a good chance to you know, I think
Speaker 1: kind of reach that danceby Swanson outcome, which would be
Speaker 1: a really good player. Like I think that's a really solid, solid,
Speaker 1: solid outcome. Of course you're dreaming on, you know, a
Speaker 1: perennial All Star when you take a guy at this
Speaker 1: one one. But I also think you got a really
Speaker 1: good chance at just having a multi win shortsot for
Speaker 1: a long time. There you go.
Speaker 3: Who's your highest floor is?
Speaker 2: That?
Speaker 3: Is it rock?
Speaker 1: That's mine? There you go.
Speaker 3: So we still have two more. We have Quickest to
Speaker 3: the big leagues and the biggest boom er Bus prospect.
Speaker 3: Talk about what's going on with our friends at Lydd's.
Speaker 1: Got a pretty cool event coming up, Yes, we do,
Speaker 1: hanging out with Ryan Howard. If you're here in Philly,
Speaker 1: come on and check it out Monday July thirteenth at
Speaker 1: ten am at the Lydds Fashion Hall District or the
Speaker 1: district mall excuse me, Lydd's Fashion District Mall excuse me.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of buzzwords in there. But excited. Monday
Speaker 1: July thirteenth at ten am you can meet Ryan Howard.
Speaker 1: I believe we'll be able to get some signatures, get
Speaker 1: a picture with him, one of the two. It'll be
Speaker 1: pretty fun. But I'm very much looking forward to that
Speaker 1: We're gonna film some content with him. I mean, this
Speaker 1: is a guy that tormented my Marlins when I was
Speaker 1: growing up watching him him launch fifty homers. I think
Speaker 1: this is one of the guys that just kind of
Speaker 1: channels to the childhood there. So if you're out here
Speaker 1: in Philly, come meet Ryan Howard, come hang out with
Speaker 1: us July thirteenth, ten am at the Lydds Fashion District Mall.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's gonna be a ton of fun guys again
Speaker 3: Lydd's Fashion District Mall in Philly, ten am on Monday.
Speaker 3: All right, quickest to MLB Mine again will be somewhat quick.
Speaker 3: The Blue Jays drafted Cole Carlin out of Arizona State
Speaker 3: in the first round, and I was looking at some
Speaker 3: quotes afterwards and they said that he has two October pitches.
Speaker 3: Now what does that mean? Well, Cole Carlin's a bitcher
Speaker 3: out of Arizona State. Heater like you wouldn't believe. I mean,
Speaker 3: this can he he can from the left side. He
Speaker 3: could rattle it up to triple digits. He's touching in
Speaker 3: high nineties right. It is a big time heater and
Speaker 3: he's got an excellent slider as well. I mean podcast
Speaker 3: p is putting it on the screen. That's him hitting
Speaker 3: one oh one. You know when he's got this dirty
Speaker 3: slider again high eighties, is even touched in the low nineties,
Speaker 3: And I agree with him. And I was thinking to myself,
Speaker 3: why did they say two pitches for October? And I
Speaker 3: do remember that the Royals brought up their draft pick
Speaker 3: as a pitcher, another left who ended up pitching for
Speaker 3: them in the playoffs. Now, I'm not saying the Blue
Speaker 3: Jays are going to make the playoffs, but what I
Speaker 3: am saying is it is wide open and the Blue
Speaker 3: Jays could also use a left handed reliever. So I
Speaker 3: would not be surprised if Cole Carlin is called up
Speaker 3: this season if the Blue Jays need him late, just
Speaker 3: because he has those two pitches. Right now, I'm just saying,
Speaker 3: in terms of quickest to the big leagues, I'm calling
Speaker 3: my shot on that one. He pitches for the Blue
Speaker 3: Jays this season. This season, I hope the.
Speaker 1: Blue Jays can can kind of nestle their way back
Speaker 1: in the hunt to make that possible too. So who's
Speaker 1: your pick for fastest of the big leagues? Quickest of
Speaker 1: the big leagues. Yes, yeah, I still got to go
Speaker 1: Rock Scholowski. Yeah, I know it's a boring pick. Again,
Speaker 1: I just I I look at his skill set, I
Speaker 1: look at what the way that you're gonna have to
Speaker 1: challenge this guy pretty quickly. I know people have made
Speaker 1: the comments, go oh, I didn't hit that well against
Speaker 1: Friday starters. Whatever, I promise you like, he's gonna be fine.
Speaker 1: And I really do think like the White Sox hitting
Speaker 1: infrastructure has changed a lot, and I do think that
Speaker 1: this is a situation where if there are some slight
Speaker 1: adjustments to make, like, the White Sucks are finally in
Speaker 1: a position where I think they can do that. And
Speaker 1: I think that starts at the top of Showman Derek S.
Speaker 1: Sherman and what he's done, but all the way down,
Speaker 1: I do think the White Sox have the infrastructure now
Speaker 1: to just kind of help a Rock Scholowski make those
Speaker 1: minor tweaks. The gloves there already so you don't have
Speaker 1: to really worry about that. And the thing is, like
Speaker 1: with Rock, I think those final little stretch, like the
Speaker 1: final couple pieces to putting it all together offensively can
Speaker 1: happen at the Big League because there's so many different
Speaker 1: ways that he can impact the game. And this is
Speaker 1: an offense that bangs, like you don't need Rock to
Speaker 1: get up there and be a lead off hitter right away.
Speaker 1: Now you can get up there and hit the bottom
Speaker 1: of the order, defend, and eventually he's gonna be a
Speaker 1: guy that's in the heart of your order. That's the goal.
Speaker 1: But for a White Sox team that you know wants
Speaker 1: to be competitive and I think can be, it is
Speaker 1: right now obviously and can be throughout next year as well. Like,
Speaker 1: that's gonna be a guy that I think they would
Speaker 1: they would love to have involved there. So look, I
Speaker 1: mean there's there's some things front office wise, I'm not
Speaker 1: totally bought into Chris Getz and all of that, But
Speaker 1: I like Showman. I like what they've done on the
Speaker 1: hitting side, and I think Julawski is gonna benefit from
Speaker 1: that because of how close he's going to be to
Speaker 1: the big leagues immediately, and I think they're going to
Speaker 1: want to get him more and kind of directly with
Speaker 1: the Showman more quickly. How he fits in will be interesting.
Speaker 1: I think, you know, there's gonna be some some things
Speaker 1: that have to move around, but obviously you make things
Speaker 1: happen for him, and I think we see him right
Speaker 1: at the start of next year. I think there's a
Speaker 1: really good chance that we could see him early next season.
Speaker 3: Wow, let's go to our biggest boom or bust prospect,
Speaker 3: and you already kind of talked about Eric book Junior,
Speaker 3: who got drafted to the Orioles, and I still do
Speaker 3: think there's some potential bust to his profile. I lean
Speaker 3: more towards boom. I really like him as a prospect,
Speaker 3: but I think Jacob Lombard dropping to the Marlins was
Speaker 3: kind of indicative of that profile where it is big
Speaker 3: time boom or bust. And even Tyler brought him up
Speaker 3: on the draft stream where you know, he kind of
Speaker 3: compared him to Elijah Green, the draft pick by the
Speaker 3: Nationals a few years ago. It was currently kind of
Speaker 3: struggling in Higa, where it's this guy with major, major tools.
Speaker 3: I mean, Lombard is a fantastic defender, He's got a
Speaker 3: ton of juice at the plate. He's even a solid
Speaker 3: runner as well, but the hit tool concern right, and
Speaker 3: I think that's what a lot of teams were looking
Speaker 3: at where he was potentially mocked at number four to
Speaker 3: the Giants. He was mocked at number five, he was
Speaker 3: mocked at number six, and I think it was somewhat
Speaker 3: surprising to see him fall down to fourteen, But then
Speaker 3: with a guy of his talent magnitude, getting him at
Speaker 3: fourteen is definitely worth the try. Like generally, I love
Speaker 3: the pick for the Marlins. I actually think it was
Speaker 3: one of the better value picks. But this is the guy.
Speaker 3: If he figures it out offensively with the hit tool,
Speaker 3: I mean you're looking at a potential five tool player,
Speaker 3: and if he doesn't, you can be looking at Elijah Green. Yeah,
Speaker 3: not why I think he's the biggest boom er Bus
Speaker 3: prospect in this draft.
Speaker 1: I think it's a great shout because I think he's
Speaker 1: as tooled up as is just about anybody. And that's
Speaker 1: the exciting part. The power speed combination that you could
Speaker 1: get from Lombard is nuts. But yeah, the biggest concern
Speaker 1: is hit tool and that's where you can you look
Speaker 1: at like a Connor Griffin. And the biggest concern with
Speaker 1: Connor Griffin was hit tool. Nobody had any questions about
Speaker 1: the tools otherwise, and obviously Connor Griffin's on a little
Speaker 1: bit of a different level. But you know, at the
Speaker 1: time there was some concerns about the hit tool, and
Speaker 1: that's why he slid a little bit. And you look
Speaker 1: at Lombard, that is the one question. No one is
Speaker 1: questioning the raw ability in the up side there. So, yeah,
Speaker 1: there's a world where he could be an all star
Speaker 1: level player, and there's a world where he could stop
Speaker 1: out in the minor leagues. And you can say that
Speaker 1: about just about anybody in the first round. But I
Speaker 1: don't think to this degree, and I'm with you, I
Speaker 1: think this is this is one of the wider ranges
Speaker 1: of outcomes that you have in the draft. But that's
Speaker 1: also why you make that pick at six or five,
Speaker 1: which was still a very big possibility. You're okay with it,
Speaker 1: but you're you're a little on edge. You're like, oh,
Speaker 1: this is a wide delta here. But when you have
Speaker 1: a player like this fall to you, you know, like
Speaker 1: where the Marlins were able to get him at fourteen,
Speaker 1: now you're more than willing to take that risk right
Speaker 1: middle of the first round. That upside You don't often
Speaker 1: get players are that kind of upside at fourteen, You're
Speaker 1: gonna roll that dice. But it just seemed like the
Speaker 1: teams you know ahead of that weren't quite willing to
Speaker 1: risk the downside for the upside exactly.
Speaker 3: And I assume he was your pick as well, or
Speaker 3: did you have a different boomer Bus guy.
Speaker 1: I gotta go Justin Lebron.
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, that's a good one too, Guys.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this because Justin Lebron is a boomer Bus player
Speaker 1: on both sides of the game, offensively and defensively. Offensively
Speaker 1: like he has the tools to be a really productive hitter.
Speaker 1: This guy entered the season as a potential one to
Speaker 1: one candidate and finished the regular season and entered the
Speaker 1: draft as one of the most polarizing players in the class.
Speaker 1: So we still saw him land to the to the
Speaker 1: Reds and in the middle of the first round roughly.
Speaker 1: But I had no idea where this guy was gonna land.
Speaker 1: And when I threw fewers out to people, you would
Speaker 1: get answers all over the map. And I can't remember
Speaker 1: a player like this polarizing in a little bit. And
Speaker 1: the big part of that is because, I mean, you
Speaker 1: saw what he did in his sophomore year, and he
Speaker 1: saw the flashes, and you think, oh, if your builds
Speaker 1: on that, My gosh, this guy could could easily be,
Speaker 1: you know, one of the top players in the in
Speaker 1: the class overall. But with the flashes of excitement. Offensively
Speaker 1: in the twitch and the bat speed, you saw forty
Speaker 1: percent whift rate this season on breaking balls, you saw
Speaker 1: just some non competitive swings against higher quality secondaries. And
Speaker 1: then on the on the on the defensive side of things,
Speaker 1: there's all of the tools to be a plus defender
Speaker 1: and you look at me say, wow, this guy could
Speaker 1: be awesome. He makes some acrobatic plays and difficult throws
Speaker 1: of different angles and the range is so impressive. And
Speaker 1: then other times he's sitting back on balls and just
Speaker 1: they're eating them up, and you're like, what's going on here?
Speaker 1: He made eighteen errors this season, And you see a
Speaker 1: guy with the tools to be plus but booting the
Speaker 1: routine and you just kind of like hit in your head,
Speaker 1: You're like, what what's the deal here? In his drafter
Speaker 1: is ops drops one hundred and fifty points. So that's
Speaker 1: where with Lebron, like you've seen flashes of what could
Speaker 1: be a really special player, but you've also seen frustration
Speaker 1: in both sides of the game. So there's a world
Speaker 1: where you hit to hit a parlay and it's you know,
Speaker 1: a well above average bat and a plus shortstop. I
Speaker 1: think a lot of things have to go right. But
Speaker 1: then there's also a world where he's frustrating defensively and
Speaker 1: whiffing all the time against secondaries.
Speaker 3: I totally agree with you. I think Justin Lebron absolutely
Speaker 3: is one of the most polarizing players in this entire draft.
Speaker 3: But I feel like, and I know that you know,
Speaker 3: we already finished all of our things on our docket,
Speaker 3: but we would be remiss if we didn't talk about
Speaker 3: the second pick in the MLB Draft and the fifth
Speaker 3: pick in the MLB Draft, Grady Emerson to the Rays.
Speaker 3: I mean, you said that this is your favorite player
Speaker 3: in the draft, So we can't go the podcast, a
Speaker 3: draft recap podcast without talking about these two picks. Because
Speaker 3: when we were watching film, you also love Derek Curle.
Speaker 3: So I want to hand it over to you to
Speaker 3: talk about Grady Emerson to the Rays at number two
Speaker 3: and Derek Curle to the Pirates at number five.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I absolutely love Emerson. That's that's my top overall
Speaker 1: player in the class. And I just I think this
Speaker 1: is going to be another high school kid that just Rakes.
Speaker 1: His swing is so advanced for his age, but he's
Speaker 1: also I think has more juice in there than he's
Speaker 1: getting credit for it. He reminds me so much of
Speaker 1: and there's no relation but Cole Emerson, where the field
Speaker 1: to hit is just stand out, it's just natural. And
Speaker 1: then the two some kind of variables are how much
Speaker 1: power does the ultimately grow into and what's the defense
Speaker 1: going to look like? And I think Grady Emerson is
Speaker 1: ahead of where Colt was defensively, but Colt is now
Speaker 1: proven that he can be, you know, solid everyday defensive shortstop.
Speaker 1: I think Grady the defense can be trained a little
Speaker 1: bit more right like he could be an above average shortstop.
Speaker 1: And if that's part of his game there, then the
Speaker 1: biggest question becomes how much powers in there. I think
Speaker 1: the hit can be plus if it's above average you know,
Speaker 1: power to pair like, it's going to be a very
Speaker 1: well rounded profile that's going to be difficult to book.
Speaker 1: A hole in the makeup is really impressive. The way
Speaker 1: he goes about his business, there's shades of like the
Speaker 1: Jojo Parker side of things too, where I just think
Speaker 1: he's gonna hit and hit and hit and with Jojo,
Speaker 1: you don't have quite I think the range and the
Speaker 1: quickness that Grady Emerson has. So if you have an
Speaker 1: above average shortstop with just the feel to hit the
Speaker 1: power potential that I think is being undersold, I think
Speaker 1: Emerson has it has the ability to be just above
Speaker 1: average tools across the board highlighted by what could be
Speaker 1: just a plus hit tool.
Speaker 3: And when I arrived from the airport, I walked into
Speaker 3: our Airbnb and all of you guys are sitting around
Speaker 3: and you got your laptop open, and I said, what
Speaker 3: are you looking at. You're like, I'm watching Derek Currila
Speaker 3: hit and I was like, what do you see? And
Speaker 3: You're like, he's so hitterish. I love this guy, and
Speaker 3: then he ends up going number five overall. And during
Speaker 3: our draft room, I look right over at you and
Speaker 3: I'm like, they took your guy. They took your guy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just in a class where there was just
Speaker 1: kind of unknown and like the outside of the rock
Speaker 1: Emerson Lackey tier at the top and yeah, you can
Speaker 1: maybe shadow just Eric Booth in the ceiling, and I
Speaker 1: think you could throw Buris in there. But outside of
Speaker 1: those guys, I think there's like Okay, there's a little
Speaker 1: bit of swing and miss. Here's this guy gonna hit enough.
Speaker 1: You know what kind of defensive value are going to
Speaker 1: are you going to get? Curriel looks like you can
Speaker 1: give you above average defense and center and this might
Speaker 1: be the best bat to ball guy in the draft.
Speaker 1: And I know the contact rates like are are probably
Speaker 1: really similar to like his ion rows. But for me,
Speaker 1: Curriel's bat to ball is going to translate to you know,
Speaker 1: more hits, at least at this where the swing is
Speaker 1: more geared for you know, I think loft to all
Speaker 1: fields despite him not being a big power guy. That again,
Speaker 1: I think he can go get it in center field
Speaker 1: and you're seeing him at least be what I think
Speaker 1: could be an above average defender your pair of that
Speaker 1: with just such a good feel for the barrel, it's
Speaker 1: tough to beat him inside. He can shoot balls. The
Speaker 1: other way, he can I think, surprise you with a
Speaker 1: little bit more thumped than expected. And if he's able
Speaker 1: to sneak out eight to ten homers with the ability
Speaker 1: to split the gaps all the time both ways, spoil
Speaker 1: tough pitches, feel for the zone and just overall feel
Speaker 1: for the barrel. This is such a high probability big
Speaker 1: leaguer with the ability to stick in center as well,
Speaker 1: that I could totally understand why the pirates said, Hey,
Speaker 1: he might not have the ceiling as some of these
Speaker 1: other guys, but we'll take him at five and be
Speaker 1: happy about it.
Speaker 3: So that's our draft recap, and we didn't talk about
Speaker 3: every pick, but if you're curious our thoughts on every pick,
Speaker 3: check out our YouTube channel. We did a three and
Speaker 3: a half I think it was three hours and fifteen
Speaker 3: minute live stream where it's arm, it's myself, it's Tyler Jennings,
Speaker 3: is ahead of amateur scouting here at Just Baseball talking
Speaker 3: through every single pick. So and because I love you all,
Speaker 3: I timestamped that entire three hour thing so you can
Speaker 3: even score right to your team's player. If we didn't
Speaker 3: mention it, I thought we got through a ton of
Speaker 3: picks and this one I had a lot of fun.
Speaker 3: Hopefully you did too, and I hope that everybody in
Speaker 3: our YouTube comments section did as well. The best way
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Speaker 3: a five star review is the best way to help
Speaker 3: out the show. Before we end ARM, let's quickly shout
Speaker 3: out Other Half Brewing are event on Tuesday for the
Speaker 3: All Star Game again at Other Half Brewing seven to
Speaker 3: eleven PM, five dollars beers. Folks coming out with us.
Speaker 3: Drink five dollar beers. Then you get MLB trivia and prizes,
Speaker 3: watch the Alctar game together, come on down and then
Speaker 3: on Monday, we're doing a meet and greet with Philly
Speaker 3: Starr Ryan Howard at ten am. And that is Podcast P.
Speaker 3: You're going to have to put the graphic up. I
Speaker 3: just forget the name of this mall. It's the Lydds
Speaker 3: Fashion District Mall, Monday at.
Speaker 1: The Fashion District Mall. But I keep reading the sentence
Speaker 1: Lidd's Fashion District Mall too, and I keep saying that.
Speaker 3: What we do know It's Monday, July thirteenth at ten
Speaker 3: am the Lids store at the Fashion District Mall in Philly,
Speaker 3: Meet and greet with Ryan Howard. Special shout out also
Speaker 3: to Podcast P for brilliant producing once again for arm Layton.
Speaker 3: I'm Peter Apple. We'll see you live here on YouTube
Speaker 3: one thirty pm Eastern on Tuesday, we're going to do
Speaker 3: home Run derby recap Ulstar game preview. We'll think about
Speaker 3: something else, but until then, with that, thank you for