1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:05,040 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast. 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,879 Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 2: people over for a second. 4 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by the Fandel Sportsbook. 5 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:35,239 Speaker 1: I'm your host, Freendan Laschen, joined by Sean Zarrillo and 6 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:41,160 Speaker 1: Billy Ward. It's your UFC betting preview UFC Vegas seventy four. 7 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:44,239 Speaker 1: Is this weekend just a quick aside, it's not really 8 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 1: gonna size just I find and you maybe both of 9 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 1: you agree you don't do this show for one week 10 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 1: and then you gumpag into it. There was no event 11 00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 1: last week, and you're like, I'm not the kid back. 12 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 3: On with the training wheels on the bike. 13 00:00:58,120 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 1: I'm like, holy crap, I feel like I haven't talked 14 00:00:59,920 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: to but UFC in like a month and a. 15 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 3: Half, so I don't know. Sorry, just I couldn't help myself. 16 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 1: I'm like, we took one week off and it feels 17 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 1: like forever ago we talk to talk to each other. 18 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:11,680 Speaker 1: So how you dive back in though and stay and 19 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 1: stay sharp? I envy that, so thank you both for 20 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 1: doing that. Anyway, just couldn't help myself. Had to go 21 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 1: there because we weren't here last week. So It's good 22 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 1: to talk to you all again. UFC Vegas seventy four 23 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 1: this weekend from the UFC Apex Center in Las Vegas. 24 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 3: We've got thirteen fights on the car. 25 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 1: There's been some cancelations moving around, so we'll do our 26 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 1: best here to navigate. 27 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:38,759 Speaker 3: If you are new to the pod and new to. 28 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: The UFC betting preview shows, it's a good way of 29 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 1: setting up people that maybe haven't tuned in before. 30 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 3: They missed us last week and we're like, where were they? 31 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 3: We talk underdogs, props, best bets. 32 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: Our final bets as we'd like to call them, because 33 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 1: every bet is the best bet, and then we preview 34 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 1: the guys fight of the night, and we also dive 35 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 1: into the main event, which is how we will start 36 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: our podcast today. Hi, Cara France, Amir al Bosi, this 37 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 1: is a very tight line. 38 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 3: Here's Zarrillo up at Fandel Car France at minus one ten. 39 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 1: Both fighters at minus one ten over at Fandel's sportsbook. 40 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:14,960 Speaker 1: As I normally ask you, how do you just assess 41 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:15,880 Speaker 1: the fight in general? 42 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:17,399 Speaker 3: And then how would you like to bet the fight? 43 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 4: Grego versus grappler Kai car Franz the striker, amiro Bosi 44 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:24,919 Speaker 4: the better grappler, and in an even money fight, if 45 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 4: the finishing upside I think is relatively the same on 46 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 4: both sides, I'm always going to take the grappler because 47 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:36,079 Speaker 4: the grappler has more of a chance of winning rounds 48 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:39,239 Speaker 4: in a dominant fashion. The upside for car France here 49 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 4: either landing a knockout or edging rounds with striking volume 50 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 4: as Albosi tries to grapple him. But if Albasi is 51 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:50,959 Speaker 4: winning rounds, it's probably happening with dominant top position and control, 52 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 4: threatening submissions or finishing the fight. I think Albasi's striking 53 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:58,679 Speaker 4: is getting a little bit underrated here, and I think 54 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:03,160 Speaker 4: the striking may actually be closer than the grappling is, 55 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 4: which is a big advantage for Elbazi if that is true. 56 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 4: The only similar matchup we've seen for car Franz similar 57 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:14,360 Speaker 4: to amiro Bosi is Rogiario Banterin he was in some 58 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:17,240 Speaker 4: very deep submission threats, had his back taken in the 59 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 4: first round. I believe he was also wobbled in that 60 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 4: first round, bonding eventually eventually tired, car Franz finished him. 61 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 4: I'm curious to see how the cardio dynamics play out 62 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 4: here if this fight does extend, because car Franz really 63 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 4: hasn't been in many fights that are super high paced. 64 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 4: That was the one that he really was in and 65 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 4: he ended up outlasting his opponent. But I don't necessarily 66 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 4: think he's got a big cardio advantage, if a cardio 67 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 4: advantage at all, in this matchup. I think these two 68 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 4: fighters are relatively close in terms of their ability to 69 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 4: win the fight, and that's what the betting market tick takes. 70 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 4: But just in terms of a betting philosophy standpoint, how 71 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 4: I'm always going to play this type of a matchup, 72 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 4: even money fight finishing upside the same on each side. 73 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 4: Grap has more upside to win in dominant fashion, So 74 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 4: abossi at minus one ten, but I also like the 75 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 4: fight to end inside the distance at around minus one 76 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 4: thirty five. See it as pretty binary with the striker 77 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 4: versus grappler, and I think there's a chance that one 78 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 4: of them is completely gassing out down the stretch of 79 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,159 Speaker 4: a high paced fight. So twenty five minutes a long 80 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 4: time for these flyweights. We actually see the flyweight fights 81 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:22,720 Speaker 4: finish at a higher rate than the bandam Way fights 82 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 4: or the federweight fights. There's something about the one twenty 83 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,279 Speaker 4: five pound division and this speed there that just leads 84 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 4: to more finishes than it does to the weight classes 85 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 4: like slightly above them that are still the smaller classes. 86 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 4: So Albasi and the fight to end inside the distance, 87 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 4: I don't think I'm betting him down went inside the distance. 88 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 4: I'm probably gonna play them separate and hope we push 89 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:41,160 Speaker 4: it worse. 90 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:44,920 Speaker 1: Billy Albosi has been sort of flying under the radar 91 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 1: and his class, averaging about two and a half takedowns permitted. 92 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 3: He's connecting on half of his attempts. 93 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 1: As Zarrillo mentioned, he's got some edges there on Elbosi, 94 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:57,200 Speaker 1: so he can no longer be slept on. 95 00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 3: Also, I should mention Billy Ward's got a right up 96 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:00,039 Speaker 3: at action. 97 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 1: UFC luck ratings, So during the football season you might 98 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: see luck ratings from our our friend, Sean Zarrillo, Shanzilla, 99 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 1: he's right here, Sean Kerner, excuse me, see riding the 100 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 1: bike Sean Kerner and Nick Giffin during the football season. 101 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 3: Very similar. 102 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: Billy kind of breaks it down and he looks at 103 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: the lines and sees if there's value undervalued or valued, etc. 104 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 3: Anyway, Hi Billy best bet for the main event. 105 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, this is a tough one. 106 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:28,479 Speaker 6: Sean brought up a lot of stuff I want to 107 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 6: get too, and I don't really disagree with any of it. 108 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:34,480 Speaker 6: I'll start by saying, this is the style of fight 109 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:36,840 Speaker 6: that I hate handicapping the most because it's a guy 110 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:40,799 Speaker 6: who's been really, really dominant against lower level competition fighting 111 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:43,720 Speaker 6: a guy who has a less impressive record, but he's 112 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 6: only ever lost to the best of the best. You know, 113 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:49,039 Speaker 6: car Francis three UFC losses tour to the current champion, 114 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 6: Brandon Moreno one was to Brandon roy Vale, who I 115 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 6: think is easily top three, if not top five, in 116 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 6: the division. So it makes it tough because we haven't 117 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:59,479 Speaker 6: seen al Bosie do it against guys like that doesn't 118 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 6: mean he can't. One thing I do want to say, 119 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 6: as far as the cardio, I'm not sure that car 120 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 6: Franz has better cardio than Albasi and like a let's 121 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:10,720 Speaker 6: have him run a marathon standpoint. But and I've said 122 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 6: this on the podcast before, wrestling for twenty five minutes 123 00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 6: is so much harder than trying to box or punch 124 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:17,839 Speaker 6: a guy for twenty five minutes. You know, there's a 125 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:21,279 Speaker 6: reason boxing championship matches or thirty six minutes and Olympic 126 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:24,400 Speaker 6: wrestling matches are like eight. So I think the cardio 127 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 6: in the late round equity is actually a little bit more. 128 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:29,720 Speaker 6: On Cara France's standpoint, it's just easier to defend takedowns 129 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 6: in punch than it is to constantly hunt them. He 130 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 6: also has eighty something percent takedown defense in the UFC, 131 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 6: which is real solid. You know, I was really impressed. 132 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 6: Sean mentioned the fight against Bontra and being similar. I 133 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:42,919 Speaker 6: thought the fight with Askar Askarov was kind of a 134 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:45,600 Speaker 6: similar setup, with Askarov wanting to take Carra Franz down. 135 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 6: Did a really good job for the most part defending 136 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 6: takedowns and also getting back up when he does get 137 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:53,919 Speaker 6: taken down. Sometimes that's more important, especially with these fly weights. 138 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 6: And there's a fight we're going to talk about for 139 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 6: Fight of the Night where that's a big angle. So 140 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 6: I think car Franz will get taken down at some 141 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:02,839 Speaker 6: point here. I'm not sure that he'll get held down, 142 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 6: and you know, Sean brought up real good points about 143 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 6: car Franz's best chance being you know, landed some big strikes. 144 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 6: So with that said, you know, he's plus four to 145 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 6: fifty by knockout, and I think that should be a 146 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 6: lot closer to his money line. I'm with Sean, I 147 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 6: think all Bozzi is gonna win minutes here unless the 148 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 6: judges really really reward car France for the striking, the 149 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 6: technical striking. Another one, Sean said, I don't think they're 150 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 6: that far apart in technical striking. You know, their ability 151 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 6: is and their technique pretty close. But car Franz has 152 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 6: so much more power. He has crazy power for a flyweight. 153 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,000 Speaker 6: I think his knockdown rate is above the UFC average 154 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 6: for any weight class, despite being the smallest men's weight 155 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 6: class out there. So this is more of a play. 156 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 6: I just think this one should be a lot closer 157 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 6: to the money line. Probably gonna be my prop squad 158 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 6: pick this week, but plus four to fifty on the 159 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 6: knockout line is just a little bit too long for 160 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:49,679 Speaker 6: a guy with that kind of power. 161 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 4: I don't even know if it is his power. It's 162 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 4: like his hand speed. He he seems to get his 163 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 4: hands to the target so quickly and accurately. It almost 164 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 4: like surprises his opponents like it. Maybe it is a 165 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 4: power thing, but it seems to be more byproduct of 166 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 4: like how quick his hands are in it. It almost 167 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:06,080 Speaker 4: like surprises people. So, yeah, he's a fun fighter to watch. 168 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 4: This is an interesting fight, but this whole card is 169 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 4: very difficult for betting and the main event specifically. 170 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 6: I used to say it frequently on this podcast, and 171 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 6: I've tried to get away from it, but this is 172 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:17,840 Speaker 6: one I'm way more interested in watching than betting. 173 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 5: I love the well. 174 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 6: I also said the opposite on occasional suddenly sloppy have 175 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 6: aweight fights or whatever, say yeah, I'm betting this one, but. 176 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 5: Probably won't watch it. So a little bit of there's 177 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 5: both directions there. 178 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true. You have said that too. Okay, you're fair, 179 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 1: you're being consistent kind of. So we'll see caraen France 180 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 1: and the takedown defense if that can prevail, or as 181 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 1: the guy's kind of laid out the angles on albasi. 182 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 3: Okay, there's your main event breakdown. 183 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:51,920 Speaker 1: Moving on to underdogs we like so I feel like 184 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:54,840 Speaker 1: times that we do this podcast, you guys like betting 185 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 1: UFC cards that the dogs are barking dogs are there's 186 00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 1: value in underdogs? 187 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 3: Is this a good week for dogs? Sean Zarillo. 188 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:06,439 Speaker 4: I had to kind of force one here. There's a 189 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:09,599 Speaker 4: lot of fighters I like closer to even money minus 190 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 4: one ten to minus one thirty. 191 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 1: Uh. 192 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 4: Finding an underdog that I actually liked on this card 193 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 4: was a bit more difficult, but I'm going with Daniel 194 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 4: Pineda in the co main event against Alex Caseras. Is 195 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 4: at a size discrepancy here, He's three inches shorter at 196 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 4: a four inch reach disadvantage, but he hits harder. He's 197 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 4: the better submission grappler, and I think he's going to 198 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 4: win the early minutes. I think Cassara's finds his best 199 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,960 Speaker 4: success late in this fight with a cardio advantage with 200 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:39,080 Speaker 4: the link maybe jabbing Panda up, but in the first 201 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 4: two rounds specifically, I think Pineda hits harder. I think 202 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 4: Paneda is more likely to finish the fight, whereas Casarras 203 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:48,280 Speaker 4: kind of needs to outpoint him over the course of 204 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:52,320 Speaker 4: fifteen minutes. I give Panada drastically more finishing upside, So 205 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 4: getting that finishing upside at plus one fifty five, getting 206 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 4: potentially the better grappler, the better wrestler at plus one 207 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 4: fifty five, Casara's can absolutely outpoint him over the course 208 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 4: of fifteen minutes. He's a great point fighter, but this 209 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 4: is a very competitive fight, specifically for the first two rounds, 210 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 4: so just the three round fight. Just he panated when 211 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:13,960 Speaker 4: two of them, and I think he can finish it 212 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 4: early on as well. So Pana plus one fifty five 213 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:17,719 Speaker 4: I think a solid bet. I'll probably take a look 214 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 4: at his inside the distance props as well, just because 215 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:22,559 Speaker 4: I get more decision equity to Casserras. 216 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:27,719 Speaker 3: Billy an underdog that you see some value. 217 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 5: Yeah, first of all, I totally agree with Sean. 218 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 6: I think one of the reasons I'm down on betting 219 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 6: this card in general is because I don't like to 220 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 6: lay juice in MMA. But there's a lot of those 221 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:38,680 Speaker 6: narrow favorites that I think are the sweet spot here. 222 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 5: There's one that I kind of like. 223 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 6: I'm not huge on it, but it just kind of 224 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 6: doesn't make sense where the line is right now, and 225 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 6: that's Johnny Munoz. His fight against Daniel Santos was supposed 226 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:49,959 Speaker 6: to happen about a month ago. It got rebooked to 227 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,440 Speaker 6: this card. The reason they got rebooked was because of 228 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 6: some Daniel Santos injury not disclosed what it was. 229 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:56,439 Speaker 5: Obviously has to be somewhat minor. 230 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 6: But whatever it was that forced him to cancel that fight, 231 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 6: you could think, but have at LEAs kept him out 232 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:03,200 Speaker 6: of training for a week or two, might still be lingering, 233 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 6: might be less than one hundred percent. Despite that, Muno's 234 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 6: closed when that fight was canceled, he was like plus 235 00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:10,560 Speaker 6: one fifty plus one fifty five range when that one 236 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 6: was canceled. You can get him for plus one eighty. 237 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 5: Now. 238 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:16,439 Speaker 6: I just don't understand why if the other fighter got injured, 239 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 6: the lines moved towards the other fighter. I think Santos 240 00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:21,199 Speaker 6: is a better fighter. I think if we throw all 241 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 6: that out, he probably should win this one. But it 242 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:24,839 Speaker 6: just doesn't make a lot of sense to me that 243 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:27,319 Speaker 6: we're getting better odds on him now after his opponent 244 00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 6: got hurt then we got originally. So plus one eight 245 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 6: not gonna be a huge beat for me, But just 246 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 6: kind of playing the markets in the math here doesn't 247 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:34,679 Speaker 6: add up. 248 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 4: Enjoy that's sweat. Daniel Santos is like the liquid terminator. 249 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:41,199 Speaker 4: That guy just does not go away. We'll get to 250 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:43,199 Speaker 4: John Cassaday in a minute, but that was that was 251 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 4: one of my most painful MMA losses ever because Santos 252 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 4: was out like three times in the first round, just 253 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 4: refused to stop. So, yeah, Daniel Santos is a tough out, Willie. 254 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 5: I've been dug on him since he got to the UFC. 255 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:57,080 Speaker 6: I think I've met him in every one of his fights, 256 00:11:57,120 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 6: and I was very prepared to do so again. 257 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 5: But I saw the line. Just why why are we 258 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 5: getting fourse odds on him when he's the one that 259 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:05,719 Speaker 5: got hurt? Doesn't make it? Yeah, no, you may. 260 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 4: You know, as soon as you brought up the fight 261 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 4: and the fact that it was rebook that I knew exactly 262 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 4: where you were going, and I pulled up best fight odds. Yeah, 263 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 4: he closed minus one eighty five before that last part 264 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 4: was canceled. Now he's minus two thirty. So yeah, I 265 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:19,520 Speaker 4: don't really get the line movement. You know, if we 266 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:23,439 Speaker 4: if you believe that markets are efficient, why is there 267 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:25,760 Speaker 4: fifty cent adjustment when that guy was hurt? 268 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:28,840 Speaker 1: Okay, the fight of the night that we are previewing 269 00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:33,439 Speaker 1: looking at the Fandel sports Bok, Tim Elliott Victor Alta 270 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 1: Morano going head to head on the main card, Elliott 271 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 1: minus one eighty eight and Victor's at plus one fifty two. 272 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 3: How do we want to bet this one? 273 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 4: Sean, Yeah, I'm gonna go with Tim Elliott here, mostly 274 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 4: because of the takedowns and the fact that Victor are 275 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 4: altur Morano's kryptonite seems to be getting taken down and 276 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 4: getting put on his back. He has good defensive jiu jitsu, 277 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:59,320 Speaker 4: he's a good fighter overall, but he just can't stop 278 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 4: himself from getting taken down. And Tim Elliott has made 279 00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 4: a career out of taking on these rising prospects and 280 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 4: turning them away. He's a great gatekeeper and anybody who's 281 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 4: not like a legitimate top ten, top fifteen talent are 282 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 4: usually pretty easy matchups for Tim. The problem is he's 283 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 4: dealing with a lot of stuff outside of the cage here. 284 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:28,560 Speaker 4: Not to get fully into it, but he's basically said 285 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:31,959 Speaker 4: that he's going for a finish and that he wants 286 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 4: the MIC. He's normally a great point fighter, and he's 287 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 4: been very clear about the fact that he wants to 288 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 4: finish in this fight. And Carlos Altamurano has never been 289 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:42,840 Speaker 4: knocked out. I believe he was knocked down in the USC, 290 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 4: but he's never been knocked out. He seems pretty durable 291 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 4: and Tim Elliott is not some big power puncher. He's 292 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 4: the kind of guy who needs to take you down 293 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 4: advanced positions and then get a submission. So normally I 294 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 4: don't put much stock into these guys talking stuff leading 295 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 4: into a fight about how they plan to win, except 296 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 4: but I actually do believe Tim Elliott. I'm of the 297 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 4: mind that he's going to stand and bang and try 298 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 4: to get a knockout against the guy who's very difficult 299 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 4: to knock out. So I would consider betting the under 300 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 4: here the fight down inside the distance. Elliott not the 301 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 4: most durable guy himself, and I you know, if he 302 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 4: does get the fight to the mat, I think he 303 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 4: can finish it. But if this was a normal fight 304 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 4: and I knew nothing about what was going on on 305 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 4: side of the cage and was just handicapping them, based 306 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 4: on what we've seen in the octagon, I think the 307 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 4: takedowns and Elliott's ability to get the takedowns for fifteen 308 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 4: minutes and consolidate position is enough to justify him as 309 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 4: the favorite. Am I willing to lay it at minus 310 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 4: one eighty minus one seventy Maybe not so much. He's 311 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 4: probably closer to sixty sixty five percent somewhere in there. 312 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 4: So there's not really a big edge, of any edge 313 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 4: at all. I don't think in the line, but I 314 00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 4: do justify. I can't justify way he's the favorite. I 315 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 4: just I need to point out that it's very likely 316 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 4: that he's not going to fight like he normally does. 317 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 1: Billy any value in the underdog in Ault Morano or 318 00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:01,240 Speaker 1: is the favorite the right side. 319 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 6: So I've since this fight was announced, I've been convinced 320 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 6: I was gonna bet tim Elliott, thought he should be 321 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 6: a bigger favorite, And I stayed up late last night 322 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 6: watching tape on both these guys, and I've talked myself 323 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 6: into Victor Alti Morano. So to get to some of 324 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:16,840 Speaker 6: Shawn's points, Alti Morano is actually a very good wrestler. 325 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 6: He might even be a better wrestler than Tim Elliott. 326 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:21,560 Speaker 6: But he gets taken all down all the time because 327 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 6: he does a bunch of dumb spinning taekwondo stuff and 328 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 6: turns his back and gets taken down. The reason I'm 329 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 6: not as worried about that is I watched a ton 330 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 6: of Tim Elliott tape. He is horrible at holding people down. 331 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 6: He's great at getting you down, but he's not great 332 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 6: at control time, you know, fly weights, that's kind of 333 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 6: the case in general, but it was impressive how quickly 334 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 6: his opponents were all able to get back up, And 335 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 6: I think that's a problem, especially with the way we 336 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 6: judge fights now, where you don't get any points for 337 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 6: those takedowns. 338 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 5: It's only what you do after all. 339 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 6: To Morano, on the other hand, I was very impressed 340 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 6: with his ability to score a takedown, stay safe and 341 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 6: not get submitted because his jiu jitsu is not great, 342 00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 6: but do just enough damage where he's winning minutes, winning rounds. 343 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 6: The striking is going to be absolutely wild here, you know, 344 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 6: Tim Elliott comes out and hops around on one leg 345 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:06,560 Speaker 6: while throwing kicks at you all to Morano's spinning all 346 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:08,720 Speaker 6: over the place. Going to be just an awesome fight 347 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 6: to watch if you love really weird stuff all the time. 348 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:14,960 Speaker 6: But yeah, I just I've talked myself into it based 349 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 6: on what I see with the grappling. All to Moronto 350 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 6: does get taken down a lot, he gets right back up. 351 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 6: You know, Elliott gets takedowns, doesn't hold position well because 352 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:24,960 Speaker 6: he's looking for crazy submissions and jumping all over the place, 353 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 6: which gives a lot of openings, so I think both 354 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 6: guys are going to get a ton of takedowns. If 355 00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 6: you're a DFS guy, which we haven't talked about, you 356 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 6: can definitely play both of these fighters because there's just 357 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:37,680 Speaker 6: going to be so many takedown points scored. But given 358 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 6: the odds, and given the way I see the grappling, 359 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 6: the striking is just too close to call because they're 360 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:43,960 Speaker 6: both such weird smobiles. But given the way I see 361 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:46,440 Speaker 6: the grappling, I like all to Morano at the odds. 362 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 6: I see Sean's pointing about inside the distance. I'm not convinced. 363 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 6: I don't think either of them have big power, but 364 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 6: you know, Sean's playing the narrative outside of the cage, 365 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 6: which matters especially in individual sports, but not something I'm 366 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 6: willing to necessarily better. So alter Morano plus money again, 367 00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 6: not a huge batform. We don't love a ton of 368 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,000 Speaker 6: underdogs here, but I've talked myself into it. 369 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:09,119 Speaker 4: I think it's more just in a fight that's difficult 370 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:11,120 Speaker 4: to get a read on, I'd rather play plus one 371 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,760 Speaker 4: eighty and root for the insanity than bet minus one 372 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 4: eighty and hope Tim Elliott doesn't go insane and get 373 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 4: knocked out. So yeah, it's just a pricing thing, and 374 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 4: I honestly don't even know if I'm betting on this fight. 375 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 4: But in terms of the one I'm most interested to watch, 376 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 4: the post fight interview, I'm potentially most looking forward to. Yeah, 377 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 4: it's Tim Ellen. 378 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:31,479 Speaker 6: Everyone should just go google Tim Elliott or Tim Elliott 379 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 6: Twitter or whatever. 380 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 5: The tweets have been deleted, but it's quite the ride. 381 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 1: You can still find them somewhere. I'm sure I'm screen 382 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 1: the screenshots. 383 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 3: Moving on to top props. 384 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 1: For UFC seventy four in Las Vegas. Zilla, you do 385 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:51,240 Speaker 1: have a prop that is featured on the main card. 386 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:51,679 Speaker 3: What do you have? 387 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:56,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, Elizu Zeleski Dos Santos to win inside the distance 388 00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,840 Speaker 4: against a Boubakar Nurma Gametov. We're trying to take down 389 00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 4: the Nermergametov clan. He is like the ugly stepchild, ugly 390 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 4: duckling of the Nermer ga Medov family. In terms of 391 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:10,639 Speaker 4: his fighting skill, this guy is just nowhere near as 392 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,880 Speaker 4: legitimate as the other guys with the Nurmagametov name, and 393 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:18,159 Speaker 4: I think Zeleskia Dos Santos, aside from the layoff, is 394 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:20,520 Speaker 4: clearly the better fighter. The problem is he hasn't fought 395 00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 4: since October twenty twenty one, when he beat the breaks 396 00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:28,880 Speaker 4: off of Benoi. Saint Denis. Zeleski has actually fought multiple 397 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 4: guys in a row who are extremely durable, and I 398 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:34,560 Speaker 4: think if he had fought lesser opponents or guys with 399 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 4: lesser chins, he would have more finishes on his record. 400 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,879 Speaker 4: Even Saint Deny, who that fight should have been stopped 401 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:44,160 Speaker 4: multiple times. He's actually followed up that loss with two 402 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 4: finishes of his own, so that win is aged even 403 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,880 Speaker 4: better for Zeleski. He's the much better striker in this matchup. 404 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:53,120 Speaker 4: He does do some dumb spinning stuff which is going 405 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 4: to get him taken down at some point, but. 406 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:56,920 Speaker 3: He is pretty good takedown defense, pretty good. 407 00:18:56,800 --> 00:19:00,440 Speaker 4: Scrambling ability, and I just think he hits extremely hard 408 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 4: for the division, and his lack of finishes in recent 409 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:06,399 Speaker 4: fight is more of a byproduct of his opponent's durability 410 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 4: than it is his lack of ability to finish her 411 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 4: hit hard. So I don't consider nurmerga Metov a particularly 412 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:14,800 Speaker 4: durable fighter, especially compared to the guys he's faced recently. 413 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:18,159 Speaker 4: I think Zeleski has a massive striking advantage if he 414 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:19,960 Speaker 4: doesn't get taken down, if he gets us on the feet, 415 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:21,960 Speaker 4: I absolutely think he can find the knockout. So two 416 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:25,440 Speaker 4: to one to win inside the distance, Elizu is Zeleski 417 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:29,680 Speaker 4: dos Santos capaera. Hopefully he pulls off cool spinning technique 418 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:30,479 Speaker 4: gets as a knockout. 419 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,640 Speaker 1: He gives Zeleski the edge too, just to win the fight. 420 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: He's at minus one oh six over at fandle. 421 00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 4: Now again, like even money striker versus grappler, I'd probably 422 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 4: lean to the grappler on the money line just for 423 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,199 Speaker 4: pure minute winning ability. Zeleski gets in a lot of 424 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:50,760 Speaker 4: close decisions because he's not very high volume. He'll throw 425 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:53,480 Speaker 4: cool stuff, but he won't do it that often. So 426 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 4: if you know he gets taken down once, gets hit 427 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:58,920 Speaker 4: a couple of times, but he throws like two spinning kicks, 428 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 4: you have one judge score it one way, one judge 429 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,040 Speaker 4: screen another way, and the third is a toss up. 430 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,320 Speaker 4: It's it's if it goes fifteen, it's going to be 431 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 4: a what decision probably, so I'd rather take his finished props. 432 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:14,879 Speaker 3: Okay, Billy's prompt is on the premium card. What do 433 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:15,119 Speaker 3: you have? 434 00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:18,920 Speaker 6: Real quick love that Sean mentioned that Easy Dos Santo's 435 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 6: nickname is capoeira because it's just hilarious that his nickname 436 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 6: is a different sport. 437 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:26,520 Speaker 5: Than the one he does. That's his style, though, No, 438 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:26,879 Speaker 5: I don't know. 439 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,720 Speaker 6: It'd be like if Lebron james nickname was football, you know, 440 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 6: like Lebron football, Like what are we doing here? But anyway, yeah, 441 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:39,200 Speaker 6: but uh yeah, this is another one of those rebooked fights. 442 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,399 Speaker 6: It's Jamie Mlarkey. He was originally supposed to have a 443 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:46,120 Speaker 6: really tough fight against Germ Kutlozzi. Kutlozzi pulled out. We've 444 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,919 Speaker 6: got some regional guy who's very not good stepping in. 445 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:53,639 Speaker 6: I've you gonna try the name good. Malarkey is the 446 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:55,919 Speaker 6: heaviest favorite on the card, but as inside the distance 447 00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:58,320 Speaker 6: line is still only minus one twenty five. I think 448 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 6: if you're Jamie Mlarkey and you've got guy who's not 449 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 6: UFC caliber, he was just the only one around willing 450 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,920 Speaker 6: to step up on four days. Notice his opponent is 451 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,160 Speaker 6: usually a featherweight stepping up to lightweight because he can't 452 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:11,840 Speaker 6: make weight in time. Just a whole thing. We're getting 453 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 6: minus one twenty five on inside the distance. I think 454 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 6: if you're Malarkey, you try to get this one done early. 455 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:19,159 Speaker 6: Don't take any chances, don't let anything crazy happen. The 456 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 6: only other thing I'm looking at in this fight is 457 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 6: FanDuel hasn't posted those like double round bats that I 458 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 6: like so much. If you can get the round one 459 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:27,920 Speaker 6: round two prop but even better than the minus one 460 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,680 Speaker 6: twenty five inside the distance, I'd probably hold out for that. 461 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:33,400 Speaker 6: You think if inside the distances minus one twenty five 462 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:35,679 Speaker 6: first two rounds will probably even money or better. So 463 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:38,880 Speaker 6: don't love it, But I just don't know why there's 464 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,200 Speaker 6: such a difference between that and his money lineos. 465 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 4: I considered actually putting Malarkey round two round three here. 466 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 4: He is a guy who consistently puts a pace on opponents, 467 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:53,120 Speaker 4: finishes in round two, attritional damage wears them down physically. 468 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 4: So yeah, I think his fighting style winds itself to 469 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:57,560 Speaker 4: a lot of round two finishes, and I think round 470 00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 4: two is a nice sweet spot. Just you know, got 471 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:02,760 Speaker 4: to mention he went from a plus two sixty five 472 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 4: hunderdog to a minus four hundred favorite after the rebooking, 473 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 4: so he's gonna be the most heavily owned fighter I 474 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 4: would imagine be a second round finish. I think it's 475 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 4: nice sweet spot sing game parlay over half a round 476 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,040 Speaker 4: maybe as well something like that. 477 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:21,680 Speaker 1: Malarkey is minus four eighty at FanDuel to Billy's point 478 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,440 Speaker 1: about being the biggest favorite. 479 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:26,640 Speaker 6: And there's since we're getting to it a little bit, 480 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:30,400 Speaker 6: two of the bigger underdogs are now heavy favorites thanks 481 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 6: to opponents pulling out, which for the DFS people, those 482 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 6: salaries remain fixed. So it's gonna be a really weird 483 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 6: chalky week with two extremely cheap fighters who are heavy favorites. 484 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 4: Now do you do you try to like be different 485 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 4: than the crowd and go against those two Billy when 486 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,399 Speaker 4: that when something like that happens, or do you just 487 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 4: use them and try to hit on the other fighters 488 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:50,159 Speaker 4: that are in the lineup. 489 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:51,960 Speaker 6: I do a lot of cash games, so this is 490 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:53,879 Speaker 6: one of those weeks where, like, I think the optimal 491 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 6: lineup is pretty obvious in cash games, and I think 492 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,919 Speaker 6: you just play that and hope enough people don't that you, 493 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 6: you know, edge out a little bit profit for a tournaments, 494 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 6: though you absolutely have to. I don't think you can 495 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:06,040 Speaker 6: play both Malarchy and Jim Miller and expect to not 496 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 6: have the same lineup as everyone else. 497 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:09,679 Speaker 4: So yeah, maybe you go against both honestly and just 498 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 4: be completely different. 499 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 5: Or you know, multiple lineups with one or the other. 500 00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,919 Speaker 6: But I hate this kind of week for the FS 501 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,680 Speaker 6: just because it seems like the answer is so obvious 502 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 6: that it's hard to get unique in that. 503 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:22,640 Speaker 4: And I just I got to shout out our Action 504 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 4: Labs tools because I use it to build my DFS 505 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,439 Speaker 4: lineups every week. It's very easy to build the rules 506 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 4: where you can go, you know, only include one of 507 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:33,160 Speaker 4: Jim Miller or Malarkey, you know, include both, don't include either. 508 00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:35,639 Speaker 4: It's very easy to build the rules and build custom lineups. 509 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 4: So I just want to shout out our tools. It's 510 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:39,399 Speaker 4: one of the things that I use on a weekly 511 00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,680 Speaker 4: basis and it helps me build you know, twenty five 512 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,479 Speaker 4: dsf DFS lineups in five minutes ten min ups. 513 00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 6: While we're on the topic, I actually did a tutorial 514 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,639 Speaker 6: on using the optimizer over on the Fantasy Labs YouTube 515 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 6: if anyone needs to check it out. 516 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,159 Speaker 4: It's a it's a free tool, so take advantage for 517 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,119 Speaker 4: you know, if you're playing every week, it's completely free. 518 00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 3: Yes, it's free. It's it's included in the free app. 519 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 1: You don't need to have the pro subscription into access 520 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:04,960 Speaker 1: to the tools section. So good call out there. Before 521 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 1: we wrap, let's get our final bet, our best bet 522 00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 1: for UFC Vegas seventy. 523 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,760 Speaker 3: Four Zerillo as a moneyline play, what do he got? 524 00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 5: Yeah? 525 00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,800 Speaker 4: Going with John Castaneda. He was my best bet when 526 00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 4: he fought Daniel Willie Cas Santos and should have won 527 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,720 Speaker 4: that fight, probably in the first round a couple of times. 528 00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 4: But Daniel Santos is the liquid terminator and he does 529 00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,639 Speaker 4: not fucking go away and it is so annoying. But 530 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:31,000 Speaker 4: this fight against Mouey Gaffarov, I think is a solid 531 00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 4: matchup for Castaneda. Gaffrov coming in here on short notice, 532 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:38,520 Speaker 4: a guy who typically slows down in his fights even 533 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,000 Speaker 4: when he is a full camp, has misweight in the past, 534 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:44,200 Speaker 4: misweight on his Contender Series fight. The guy he lost 535 00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,680 Speaker 4: to on Contender Series has since been cut by the UFC. 536 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 4: I think first round is going to be competitive, and 537 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:53,240 Speaker 4: I think Castaneda takes over to a pretty significant degree 538 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:55,439 Speaker 4: in rounds two and rounds three. I think this is 539 00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:57,320 Speaker 4: also another type of fight that I've talked about in 540 00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 4: recent weeks where Gafferov may get takedowns, but he's not 541 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:03,200 Speaker 4: going to do much with it. He's not going to 542 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:06,119 Speaker 4: land much damage. He may have control time, but if 543 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 4: they're on the feet for a minute, Castaneda may land 544 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,200 Speaker 4: more strikes in a round. So not only the cardio advantage, 545 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 4: but also the damage advantage. I think favors Castaneda in 546 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,960 Speaker 4: terms of minute winnings. So castdata minus won thirty five 547 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 4: pre fight live after round one, I'd also search for 548 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,760 Speaker 4: something minus two hundred or better as well, assuming it's 549 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,320 Speaker 4: a close round. Something he may be edges or you know, 550 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,960 Speaker 4: even if the line moves in his direction after a 551 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:32,520 Speaker 4: close round, I think it's something I'd still be willing 552 00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:34,480 Speaker 4: to jump in on the cardio advantage. 553 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:38,000 Speaker 1: All right, and Billy, your best bet is featured in 554 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 1: your luck ratings right up. 555 00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:42,640 Speaker 3: You see value in Dantel. 556 00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:44,680 Speaker 5: May's Yeah Little callback too. 557 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:47,040 Speaker 6: Earlier in the podcast where I said there's sloppy heavyweight 558 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:49,440 Speaker 6: fights that I'm happy to bet but don't especially. 559 00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 5: Want to watch. 560 00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:53,560 Speaker 6: Here we are Dantel Mays is fighting Andre Rolofski, who's 561 00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,359 Speaker 6: been in the UFC since like nineteen seventy two or something. 562 00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 6: I'm not sure why this line is so close Arlofski 563 00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 6: is a million yearyears old. But other than just you know, 564 00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,560 Speaker 6: wanting to fade the older guy who I can't believe this, 565 00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:07,920 Speaker 6: he hasn't announced to retirement before this or any of 566 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 6: his last five fights. Arlosky was finished in his last 567 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 6: fight before that, two real close split decision wins. Kind 568 00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 6: of don't think either those should have gone his way. 569 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:19,919 Speaker 6: The bigger factor here, though, is Mays is undefeated in 570 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:23,399 Speaker 6: the UFC Slash Contender Series unless his opponent takes him 571 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,560 Speaker 6: down at least two times in a fight. Mays is 572 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:27,920 Speaker 6: a good offensive grappler, but like a lot of wrestlers, 573 00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,120 Speaker 6: if you put him on his back, he's absolutely hopeless. 574 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,640 Speaker 6: And he's a good striker. He's probably a worse technical 575 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:37,240 Speaker 6: striker than Oarlovsky, but he's legitimately fourteen years younger, so 576 00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 6: gonna have a lot of speed and athleticism there. But 577 00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:42,320 Speaker 6: you know, unless you take him down, he does pretty well. 578 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:44,760 Speaker 6: Arlosky hasn't landed a takedown in any of his last 579 00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 6: eleven fights, so he's obviously not going to try to 580 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:51,560 Speaker 6: take anyone down. Mayes is about three inches probably in 581 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,000 Speaker 6: the cage, thirty or forty pounds heavier, which makes takedowns 582 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,920 Speaker 6: even harder, So not just fading the old guy, but 583 00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 6: there's actually some logic and stats here. This line has 584 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 6: moved a little little bit towards Mays throughout the week. 585 00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:03,479 Speaker 6: You know, I think you could get him minus one 586 00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,480 Speaker 6: fifteen minus one twenty earlier, but minus one thirty is 587 00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:08,920 Speaker 6: still fine. I'd probably claimed about minus one fifty before 588 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:09,720 Speaker 6: it scared me off. 589 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:11,919 Speaker 4: Not sure if you mentioned he also has a foreignch 590 00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 4: reach advantage, so you know that should make up for 591 00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:20,600 Speaker 4: some of the technical differential footwork. Differential tot of is 592 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:26,960 Speaker 4: just so tough to trust as a favorite, like unbelievably untrustworthy. Yeah, 593 00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,000 Speaker 4: they're kind of finished in more than twenty fights, though, 594 00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:32,840 Speaker 4: so you know Ourlovsky's upside in any fight is close 595 00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:36,800 Speaker 4: split decision, competitive split decision, competitive decision win, twenty nine 596 00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:40,160 Speaker 4: to twenty eight win. Yeah, I mean, yeah, I don't 597 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,560 Speaker 4: blame you for betting Mays, but he's just not a 598 00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:43,320 Speaker 4: guy I could back it. 599 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:44,120 Speaker 5: Juice. 600 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,360 Speaker 6: We all got burned on him last time against Hamdy, 601 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:50,520 Speaker 6: but Handy failed his drug test for PDS. I'm going 602 00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:52,560 Speaker 6: to pretend that was the only reason Mays lost and 603 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:53,920 Speaker 6: had the other guy not cheated. 604 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 5: We would have all cashed. 605 00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 4: That so he would go lost to Sakai as well. 606 00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:00,119 Speaker 4: But yeah, and Sakai got cut too. That was It's 607 00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:03,119 Speaker 4: very weird. Sakai coming off the four straight losses, get 608 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 4: to win and then gets cut. So UFC very exciting 609 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:07,919 Speaker 4: cutting half the roster. 610 00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 1: Prelims start at six Eastern over on ESPN plus. Main 611 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:16,159 Speaker 1: card gets underway at nine. I won't be able to 612 00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:19,520 Speaker 1: tell you what fights Zorillo and or Billy will actually 613 00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:20,480 Speaker 1: be watching. 614 00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:23,359 Speaker 3: Or what they may be watching but not betting. 615 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:27,360 Speaker 1: So ugly card this week, but we found a way 616 00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,199 Speaker 1: to get through and we're back on the bike with 617 00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:31,239 Speaker 1: training wheels coming off. 618 00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 4: Hopefully get a nice paper view next week a couple 619 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:34,359 Speaker 4: of time fights. 620 00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:36,000 Speaker 5: Looking forward to these. 621 00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,440 Speaker 1: Our way back in for Billy Ward, Shawn Zarrello, Brendan Glasheen. 622 00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,440 Speaker 3: Download the Action Network app. If these guys add anything. 623 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:43,840 Speaker 1: Else to their cards, you can find them in the 624 00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 1: app individually. 625 00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,040 Speaker 3: We will be back next week. 626 00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:50,160 Speaker 1: We're back in the mix our UFC betting previews here 627 00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:53,120 Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel. 628 00:28:53,160 --> 00:29:03,160 Speaker 3: You all have a great feet. Action Network reminds you 629 00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:07,240 Speaker 3: please gamble responsibly if you or someone you care about 630 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:08,360 Speaker 3: has a gambling problem. 631 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,640 Speaker 1: Help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred 632 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: Gambler