WEBVTT - Jobs, Midterms, and Twitter (Podcast)

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

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<v Speaker 1>my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring

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<v Speaker 1>you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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<v Speaker 1>with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

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<v Speaker 1>on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. We have John Goldnack.

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<v Speaker 1>He is a vice president at Attico. Part let's start

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<v Speaker 1>off with the jobs numbers here because not only as

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<v Speaker 1>mid terms went to be one of the major drivers

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<v Speaker 1>with the jobs numbers as well. John, apologies on my part.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's start with your initial reaction to the jobs numbers today.

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<v Speaker 1>What was great was, you know, you see the markets

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<v Speaker 1>going up and down. There's a lot of good in

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<v Speaker 1>this job's report, um and then and then there's ways

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<v Speaker 1>that you know, you could interpret it a little bit differently.

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<v Speaker 1>But what I love about it wage growth, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>starting to slow down. We're seeing stability that's going to

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<v Speaker 1>allow companies that you know, that confidence to continue to hire.

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<v Speaker 1>The quits are holding steady, so some of the retention

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<v Speaker 1>strategies that are employers are putting in really slowing down

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<v Speaker 1>the churn that we saw a couple of quarters ago.

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<v Speaker 1>So I like to that consistency. One of the things

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<v Speaker 1>that Pals dated though, was that demand, can you know

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<v Speaker 1>substantially is exceeding supply right now? So I think we

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<v Speaker 1>do need to look at that labor participation rate. We're

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<v Speaker 1>holding flat there. Um, we've got to continue to focus

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<v Speaker 1>on upskilling and reskilling these workers so we can get

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<v Speaker 1>some of those leisure and hospitality colleagues that really haven't

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<v Speaker 1>been enjoying the fruit right now since COVID. We need

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<v Speaker 1>to get them in some other industries right now so

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<v Speaker 1>we can uptake this participation rate. And I think I

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<v Speaker 1>think we're gonna be in a good spot. But yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>there's still some pause I think in the labor market,

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<v Speaker 1>waiting to see what happens with these midterms. Yeah, it's

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<v Speaker 1>a really interesting point you make there. I want to

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<v Speaker 1>get into that a little bit more about the dislocation

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<v Speaker 1>between the openings that we're seeing and the participation rate.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that starting to come together in terms of people

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<v Speaker 1>getting into the jobs that are open or are we

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<v Speaker 1>are still seeing a gap there. We're still seeing a

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<v Speaker 1>gap there, but we're making progress. We're seeing employers take

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<v Speaker 1>a look at their job descriptions, looking at the you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the barriers to entry. Do you need a high school diploma?

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<v Speaker 1>Can we do some on the job training. We're also seeing,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, a re emergence of some vocational and technical

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<v Speaker 1>trade schools coming up. You know, if we can't upscale

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<v Speaker 1>or rescale, we're gonna have to create some workers to

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<v Speaker 1>come in. So I see people getting more creative, opening

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<v Speaker 1>up their days and letting letting new people come in. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>it's just a question of that the culture change. It's

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<v Speaker 1>going to take a little bit more time and as

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<v Speaker 1>we continue, you know, to improve. We're seeing so much

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<v Speaker 1>hiring and healthcare has been consistent, I mean, seven thousand

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<v Speaker 1>per month compared to nine thousand per month twenty two

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<v Speaker 1>versus twenty one. So what a huge investment in infrastructure.

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<v Speaker 1>But but you're right, there's a dislocation by sector and

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<v Speaker 1>until we can get the whole up in that participation rate, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>we still have to stay focused on reskilling and upskilling workers. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>speaking of a diversion by sector, I I'm interested in

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<v Speaker 1>the oil and gas sector specifically. Believe only four hundred

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<v Speaker 1>jobs were added in that sector sector that the Biden

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<v Speaker 1>administration has been actively trying to really ramp up in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of production. In turn, the industry saying, look, we

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<v Speaker 1>are still in dealing with supply chain issues despite these

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<v Speaker 1>record profits. We can't ramp up production that quickly. Where

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<v Speaker 1>does the jobs market falls. They're a little bit of

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<v Speaker 1>catch up to be played by that sector. I think

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<v Speaker 1>when you look at energy in general, it's been it's

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<v Speaker 1>been growing. Energy has been a growing sector. So you

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<v Speaker 1>know this this comes into can we get people to

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<v Speaker 1>work around the clock, can we get second third shifts?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, oil industry is not a nine to five job,

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<v Speaker 1>so you're looking at a type of worker. Um, that's

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<v Speaker 1>a very narrow base. So again this comes down to,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we need to reskill and bring people in

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<v Speaker 1>two different industries like energy, like healthcare that are growing. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's challenging. But you know, one of the other

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<v Speaker 1>things I think is important to note if you look

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<v Speaker 1>at the ADP report, UM specifically, they had a comment

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<v Speaker 1>there about company size and company size fifty employees. They

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<v Speaker 1>added two jobs per a DP. Now, if you look

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<v Speaker 1>at that, that's virtually almost all gains. So so what

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<v Speaker 1>that tells me a little bit I interpret that as

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<v Speaker 1>the larger companies right now have have got a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit of the talent they're they're holding right now, they've

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<v Speaker 1>got strategy, they're waiting to see what happens in the

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<v Speaker 1>mid terms, but it's created an opportunity window for these

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<v Speaker 1>small and midsized companies who have been fighting for the talent.

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<v Speaker 1>They're finally starting to get some of it right now.

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<v Speaker 1>So that was encouraging for me to see small and

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<v Speaker 1>midsized companies really make some gains. Um. I think we'll

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<v Speaker 1>see the fruit of that in the next couple of months,

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<v Speaker 1>certainly something we're going to keep our eye on. John

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<v Speaker 1>Golnac of a Deco, we thank you as always for

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<v Speaker 1>joining us an apologies again for the intro. I look

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<v Speaker 1>forward to to having you back on the show. What

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<v Speaker 1>also never gets old is analysis from a certain gentleman

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<v Speaker 1>who has just a real affinity for looking at things

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<v Speaker 1>state by state. Of course, as a background in Muty bonds,

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<v Speaker 1>so I feel like you never forget your first speak.

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<v Speaker 1>Matthew Winkler, Editor in chief Meritis joins me right here

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<v Speaker 1>in studio. Real pleasure I wanted before we get to

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<v Speaker 1>your column. Is that true? You never forget your first beat.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's true, and it's always delight to be

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<v Speaker 1>with you. You're very sweet. Thank you. Um Well. He

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<v Speaker 1>wrote this incredible column about Ohio specifically, when you think

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<v Speaker 1>about globalization, Ohio doesn't necessarily immediately come to mind for me.

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<v Speaker 1>It's New York or l A maybe, but right, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>somewhere near the water m But he makes the argument

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<v Speaker 1>that Ohio is actually benefited, perhaps more than others from globalization.

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<v Speaker 1>Walks through that. So you're absolutely right. If you are

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<v Speaker 1>on the campaign trail, all you hear is very xenophobic

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<v Speaker 1>comments about businesses overseas from both the Democrat and the

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<v Speaker 1>Republican candidates for Senate j d Vance on the Republican

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<v Speaker 1>side and Ryan among the Democrats. What is the reality, however,

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<v Speaker 1>is that Ohio is um one of the greatest beneficiaries

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<v Speaker 1>of globalization, as measured by the fact that it has

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<v Speaker 1>more foreign owned factories per square thousand miles than any

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<v Speaker 1>other state in the country. And if you break that

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<v Speaker 1>down even more, h every business, the publicly traded Giant,

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<v Speaker 1>Procter and Gamble to family owned companies, they all are

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<v Speaker 1>huge beneficiaries of trade with China, Canada, and Mexico. And

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<v Speaker 1>that's a long running story. And if you consider that,

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<v Speaker 1>probably the factory worker as we know it historically has

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<v Speaker 1>been displaced mostly by automation. Ohio has actually been working

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<v Speaker 1>because of globalization. So that's really the story and it

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<v Speaker 1>and it doesn't stop. But nobody talks about this. And

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<v Speaker 1>every way you look at it, there's something like almost

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<v Speaker 1>eight hundred foreign factories in Ohio. You can't miss them.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, if land in Columbus, for example, and just

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<v Speaker 1>drive a little bit north you hit Marysville, Ohio, which

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<v Speaker 1>is the center of Honda's North American UM production factory.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course they at The argument that anti globalists would

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<v Speaker 1>make is that it's added to the wealth gap between

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<v Speaker 1>rich and poor. That you know, so much labor can

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<v Speaker 1>be farmed out to foreign countries and the US doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>get that much in return. Are you seeing that in Ohio? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>not really, because Ohio has done very well recruiting uh,

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<v Speaker 1>not just Honda, but Siemens uh for example, air liquid

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<v Speaker 1>from France. UM. It's done a great job recruiting companies

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<v Speaker 1>from overseas and letting them prosper in Ohio, paying very

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<v Speaker 1>high wages. By the way, all of these companies that

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<v Speaker 1>are far and owned that operate in Ohio are the

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<v Speaker 1>ones that are providing the high is paying jobs. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>the biggest employer in Ohio is Walmart. They have something

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<v Speaker 1>like fifty five thousand what they call associates earning less

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<v Speaker 1>than eighteen dollars an hour. And by the way, you're

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<v Speaker 1>very well aware that Walmart gets a lot of its

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<v Speaker 1>stuff and has been for some time from China. So

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<v Speaker 1>there's Walmart employing more Ohioans than any other company. And

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<v Speaker 1>Ohio is okay with that because Walmart is the biggest

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<v Speaker 1>employer in Ohio. So then factor in the politics of this. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>what could change perhaps in Ohio given some of this rhetoric. Well, unfortunately,

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<v Speaker 1>that's saying the truth is the first casualty, and we

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<v Speaker 1>know it all too well in our own profession of journalism.

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<v Speaker 1>And UM, this contradiction, uh, and that's really what it is. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>The lack of honesty on the campaign trail or even

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<v Speaker 1>in the media narrative makes it difficult for people to

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<v Speaker 1>accept what, in fact, uh is the reality for not

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<v Speaker 1>just the US, but every modern economy in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>We're all inter interdependent, really, UM, and that's not going

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<v Speaker 1>to go away. I mean, even with all of the

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<v Speaker 1>recent hostility towards China, global trade is a reality, and uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know your your point about fair trade. That's something

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<v Speaker 1>for politicians obviously to sort out. But in the meantime,

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<v Speaker 1>people are working in Ohio because of globalization. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>in some way, Matt, is this just a matter of

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<v Speaker 1>you know, China is an easier political punching bag than

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<v Speaker 1>automation to some extent, Well, it's it's easier insofar as

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<v Speaker 1>China is an autocracy, I mean, where you want to

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<v Speaker 1>call it a dictatorship, So it's an easy target. Having

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<v Speaker 1>said that, it's the second largest economy in the world,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's the one that's grown the most UH in

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<v Speaker 1>our lifetimes. So um, yeah, you can assail China. But

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<v Speaker 1>just about every global business that we know of, UH

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<v Speaker 1>does business in China. And it's two ways. I mean, Ohio,

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<v Speaker 1>by the way, exports quite a bit of its stuff

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<v Speaker 1>to China. It gets more of its stuff from China.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's a two way trade, if you like. And

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<v Speaker 1>that's the reality for a lot of states. Of course.

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<v Speaker 1>Matt Winkler Bloomberg News as founder and editor in chief emeritus,

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<v Speaker 1>I might add wrote this incredible column. Folks check it

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<v Speaker 1>out on Bloomberg dot Com and of course Bloomberg Opinion. O.

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<v Speaker 1>P I N I'll go on your Bloomberg terminal. We

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<v Speaker 1>are very excited to have him in studio, and of

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<v Speaker 1>course he has I'm sure more columns ahead of the

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<v Speaker 1>midterms next week. We're very excited about this next guest

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<v Speaker 1>joining us, especially ahead of mid terms, a really crucial moment,

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<v Speaker 1>not just for the markets, but for politics as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Is Governor Ned Lamont of the great state of Connecticut.

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<v Speaker 1>He's running for re election in two of course, I

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<v Speaker 1>guess Republican Bob Stefanowski, Governor, thank you as always for

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<v Speaker 1>making the time to join us up. Myself and Nathan

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<v Speaker 1>are are very very excited to have you. I want

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<v Speaker 1>to start off with a question about your business background.

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<v Speaker 1>This is at the end of the day Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>You and your opponent both have an extensive career in

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<v Speaker 1>business and finance. But I'm curious if you think the

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<v Speaker 1>Democratic Party has become too anti business or their policies

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<v Speaker 1>aren't promoting enough economic growth. That's certainly some of the

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<v Speaker 1>criticism that the Democratic Party has faced. I'll tell you

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<v Speaker 1>one thing gratty. I think they'd be well served to

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<v Speaker 1>have more people with a business background. You see some

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<v Speaker 1>in the governor's world, and I think that's really positive. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>I worked very closely with Charlie Baker up in Massa Chosetts.

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<v Speaker 1>We both have a business background, which I thought was

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<v Speaker 1>very helpful. Gina Romando next door to me in Rhode

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<v Speaker 1>Island before she went on the commerce And I do

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<v Speaker 1>think I'm the first one UM in forever here in

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<v Speaker 1>the state of Connecticut with a business. I started up

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<v Speaker 1>a business forty years ago building telecommunication systems came out

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<v Speaker 1>of the cable TV and it's the likes of experience

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<v Speaker 1>that I bring to this job every day, knowing what

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<v Speaker 1>it means to was small business, how our policies would

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<v Speaker 1>impact a small business. You know, Governor, your fellow governor

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<v Speaker 1>Democrat of California, Gavin Newsom, has made no secret of

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<v Speaker 1>his feeling that your party, the Democrats, are failing when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to putting out a coherent economic message. Is

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<v Speaker 1>that of you you share and if so, what can

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<v Speaker 1>you do about it? I'll tell you what we've done

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<v Speaker 1>here in Connecticut. Create something called Advanced CT so I

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<v Speaker 1>get all the business leaders at the table. No more

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<v Speaker 1>of this adversarial relationship or two very different spheres. There

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<v Speaker 1>are best advocates for the state, Nathan, I mean, I'm

0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:54.360
<v Speaker 1>I'm a homer. When a company is thinking about coming

0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:56.840
<v Speaker 1>to the state or expanding the state, Um, you know,

0:12:56.880 --> 0:12:58.320
<v Speaker 1>you know what I'm gonna say and how I'm gonna

0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:00.440
<v Speaker 1>push up When I can send them this abody who's

0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:04.600
<v Speaker 1>an advanced manufacturing or i T or life sciences, who's

0:13:04.640 --> 0:13:07.240
<v Speaker 1>part of our advanced CT team. That's a good way

0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:12.120
<v Speaker 1>to reinvent and sell the company. Walk us through perhaps

0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:15.079
<v Speaker 1>some of the key voter issues here. I mean, we've

0:13:15.080 --> 0:13:17.480
<v Speaker 1>talked about inflation, the economy. A lot of us from

0:13:17.480 --> 0:13:20.360
<v Speaker 1>from Bloombergradi and bloomber Television are talking about just how

0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:22.640
<v Speaker 1>much that is going to drive the drive voters to

0:13:22.720 --> 0:13:25.640
<v Speaker 1>the polls. But it's also crime, it's abortion, it's immigration.

0:13:26.040 --> 0:13:28.680
<v Speaker 1>What would you say is the number one issue that

0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:34.319
<v Speaker 1>is driving voters? I think the economy front and center. Uh.

0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:37.680
<v Speaker 1>Here in Connecticut we've been flat as a pancake for

0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:41.280
<v Speaker 1>thirty years. We hadn't added a new job in thirty years. Uh,

0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:44.280
<v Speaker 1>and we were going from physical crisis to fiscal crisis.

0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:47.680
<v Speaker 1>It was a pretty lousy story. And the last you know,

0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:50.880
<v Speaker 1>four or five years, we're beginning to turn things around,

0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:53.160
<v Speaker 1>and we've had four balanced budgets in a row. We

0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:56.480
<v Speaker 1>did it without raising taxes. That sent a message loud

0:13:56.520 --> 0:14:00.199
<v Speaker 1>and clear to the business community. Connecticut beginning to get

0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:03.600
<v Speaker 1>its fiscal act and u together build on that. We

0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:07.040
<v Speaker 1>hadn't added jobs. Today, we've got created over a hundred

0:14:07.080 --> 0:14:09.760
<v Speaker 1>thousand new jobs that were really working hard to fill

0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:12.720
<v Speaker 1>right now. So when it comes to the economy, we're

0:14:12.760 --> 0:14:15.600
<v Speaker 1>telling that story loud and clear. But there's no getting

0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:18.600
<v Speaker 1>away from inflation and how that slams the middle class.

0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:21.240
<v Speaker 1>And we did what we could. We put in place

0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:24.160
<v Speaker 1>the biggest middle class tax cut in our history, and

0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:26.360
<v Speaker 1>that's money that when the people's pocket. As early as

0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:31.160
<v Speaker 1>this summer, Governor, there is some pushback from the Biden

0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:34.800
<v Speaker 1>administration at the moment against the idea that perhaps the

0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:38.920
<v Speaker 1>federal reserve needs a recession to really fully tackle on

0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:44.080
<v Speaker 1>inflation and in doing that have unemployment rise. Is Connecticut

0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:49.920
<v Speaker 1>prepared for such a move. We're as prepared as you

0:14:49.960 --> 0:14:52.840
<v Speaker 1>can be. For the first time ever. I've got a

0:14:52.920 --> 0:14:55.040
<v Speaker 1>three and a half billion dollar rainy day fund. What

0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:57.840
<v Speaker 1>does that mean? It's about fifteen percent of our revenues.

0:14:57.880 --> 0:15:02.080
<v Speaker 1>So I budgeted very conservatively. I assumed our capital gains

0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:04.640
<v Speaker 1>was gonna be going down, not up this year already.

0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:08.640
<v Speaker 1>Combine that with the fact that I got fiftum set

0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:12.760
<v Speaker 1>aside in cash as necessary if our revenues shortfall. I

0:15:12.760 --> 0:15:14.960
<v Speaker 1>don't want to do anything that upsets the apple cart.

0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:16.840
<v Speaker 1>I don't want to raise any taxes. I don't want

0:15:16.840 --> 0:15:20.800
<v Speaker 1>to slash education spending. That's what the ten previous governors

0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:23.240
<v Speaker 1>have done. That's not what I'm gonna do. At the

0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:26.440
<v Speaker 1>national level, Governor, as you know, there's talk about lifting

0:15:26.480 --> 0:15:30.240
<v Speaker 1>the debt ceiling if Democrats take back control of Congress,

0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:34.160
<v Speaker 1>although here from many pollsters, they don't think that's gonna happen.

0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:38.960
<v Speaker 1>Given the fiscal policy that you're putting forward in Connecticut.

0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:41.640
<v Speaker 1>Is there something that Democrats can take away from on

0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:43.440
<v Speaker 1>a national level from what you're doing in the state

0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:48.800
<v Speaker 1>of Connecticut. I think anything that gives people confidence you're

0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:51.560
<v Speaker 1>dealing with your long term issues, just not the short term,

0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:54.440
<v Speaker 1>makes the difference. It's a sense of direction. I don't

0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:57.440
<v Speaker 1>want anybody playing games with the debt ceiling. I've been

0:15:57.480 --> 0:16:00.320
<v Speaker 1>through this before as an observer when we're gonna shut

0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:02.840
<v Speaker 1>down government if we don't get our way, and now

0:16:02.880 --> 0:16:05.040
<v Speaker 1>as a governor, I can tell you how disastrous that

0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:07.320
<v Speaker 1>would be if there was a real risk that a

0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:09.680
<v Speaker 1>lot of the ongoing support we get from the federal

0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:12.360
<v Speaker 1>government was to be cut off all of a sudden.

0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:14.920
<v Speaker 1>So I really hope that's not a game that Congress

0:16:15.000 --> 0:16:18.880
<v Speaker 1>is going to play. So, then, is the spending that

0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:21.640
<v Speaker 1>we've seen from the BI part is an infrastructure Act

0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:24.240
<v Speaker 1>the Inflation Reduction Act? Is that something that you support?

0:16:25.720 --> 0:16:28.760
<v Speaker 1>That's up my support? Look, Nathan, I'm a We've got

0:16:28.800 --> 0:16:32.800
<v Speaker 1>a hundred year old bridges and old roads, old rails,

0:16:32.920 --> 0:16:36.000
<v Speaker 1>So this is a big deal for us. Every president

0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:39.080
<v Speaker 1>seems to be talking about infrastructure. Of Biden's the first

0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:41.160
<v Speaker 1>guy since Ike as far as I can figure out,

0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:45.480
<v Speaker 1>to really be serious about it. Look, we're geographic. We're

0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:48.240
<v Speaker 1>between New York and Boston. I can take twenty minutes

0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:51.160
<v Speaker 1>off your commute in each direction. It'll take you know,

0:16:51.280 --> 0:16:53.400
<v Speaker 1>five or six years to do it. But these are

0:16:53.440 --> 0:16:56.200
<v Speaker 1>the types of investments that the Infrastructure Bill allows us

0:16:56.240 --> 0:17:00.680
<v Speaker 1>to make. But these infrastructure investments were meant to kind

0:17:00.720 --> 0:17:04.080
<v Speaker 1>of manifest for lack of a better term, over a

0:17:04.160 --> 0:17:07.480
<v Speaker 1>much longer time horizon. We're talking potentially ten years. It's

0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:09.920
<v Speaker 1>not just about kind of roads and bridges. It's about say,

0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:14.479
<v Speaker 1>chip making facilities. Even I wonder, though, if there's a

0:17:14.640 --> 0:17:18.760
<v Speaker 1>risk to the Democratic Party and to this massive infrastructure investment,

0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:22.080
<v Speaker 1>if we not only see a Republican sweep in in

0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:30.520
<v Speaker 1>this midterm election, but potentially a Republican president. I'd be

0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:33.600
<v Speaker 1>very surprised if they wanted to roll back the Infrastructure

0:17:33.600 --> 0:17:37.520
<v Speaker 1>Bill that that did have some bipartisans support, thank you,

0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:41.680
<v Speaker 1>Mitt Romney and um that would surprise me. The Inflation

0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:44.080
<v Speaker 1>Reduction Act. Maybe you think we're putting too much money

0:17:44.160 --> 0:17:49.040
<v Speaker 1>into UM charging stations or resiliency to prevent against flooding.

0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:51.920
<v Speaker 1>But I think after Hurricane Ian people say, hey, probably

0:17:51.960 --> 0:17:54.760
<v Speaker 1>these are investments worth making. You know, I think you'd

0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:57.320
<v Speaker 1>probably have grid luck that the Republicans take over Congress

0:17:57.359 --> 0:17:59.320
<v Speaker 1>and not much had happened for the next two years.

0:17:59.680 --> 0:18:01.560
<v Speaker 1>But we've got a lot of our plate right now.

0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:04.480
<v Speaker 1>I've got to make sure it's appropriately invested. Of course,

0:18:04.480 --> 0:18:07.080
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of talk as well, Governor about rolling

0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:11.360
<v Speaker 1>back entitlements, Social Security, Medicare Medicaid reform as well. You've

0:18:11.400 --> 0:18:14.160
<v Speaker 1>even heard from Joe Mansion, the Democrat from West Virginia,

0:18:14.200 --> 0:18:15.840
<v Speaker 1>saying that needs to be looked at as well. How

0:18:15.920 --> 0:18:19.239
<v Speaker 1>much of a concern is that for you. I'll tell

0:18:19.280 --> 0:18:22.040
<v Speaker 1>you what we've done here in Connecticut, Nathan. Um. You know,

0:18:22.080 --> 0:18:25.240
<v Speaker 1>they were talking about walking away from our pension obligations

0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:28.040
<v Speaker 1>to state employees we couldn't afford it, and to let

0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:31.680
<v Speaker 1>them fend for themselves. We've done just the opposite. Um.

0:18:31.720 --> 0:18:34.960
<v Speaker 1>We've paid down, not just made the required contributions to

0:18:35.000 --> 0:18:38.040
<v Speaker 1>the state veget funds, but paid down about ten percent

0:18:38.119 --> 0:18:40.960
<v Speaker 1>of it. We're look, we're no showcase. We still have

0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:43.800
<v Speaker 1>a big unfunded liability, but we're a lot better off

0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:46.399
<v Speaker 1>than we were before. And I really urged the federal

0:18:46.480 --> 0:18:49.040
<v Speaker 1>government to take it seriously. Everybody sort of kicks the

0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:52.120
<v Speaker 1>can on Social Security. You can't do that any longer.

0:18:52.400 --> 0:18:55.360
<v Speaker 1>Look what Chip and Ronnie did back in nineteen eighty

0:18:55.440 --> 0:18:57.400
<v Speaker 1>two or three. I think you'll see something like that

0:18:57.440 --> 0:19:01.120
<v Speaker 1>going forward. That's a throwback tip and Ronnie, I want

0:19:01.119 --> 0:19:02.879
<v Speaker 1>to ask you about that a little bit in terms

0:19:02.880 --> 0:19:05.040
<v Speaker 1>of the polarization we're seeing as well. I mean when

0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:08.040
<v Speaker 1>you think of Tip O'Neil and Ronald Reagan, you think

0:19:08.080 --> 0:19:11.120
<v Speaker 1>about you know, there was a time when the parties

0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:14.120
<v Speaker 1>could at least make a show of working together. Now

0:19:14.160 --> 0:19:17.960
<v Speaker 1>we have so much polarization in this country and threats

0:19:17.960 --> 0:19:20.199
<v Speaker 1>of political violence as well. Of course, we saw what

0:19:20.240 --> 0:19:23.280
<v Speaker 1>happened with the Speaker's husband last week. How do we

0:19:23.359 --> 0:19:29.800
<v Speaker 1>get past this polarization in our politics? Governor, you gotta

0:19:29.800 --> 0:19:33.160
<v Speaker 1>turn down the rhetoric. First of all, Um, I don't

0:19:33.320 --> 0:19:35.520
<v Speaker 1>get partisan much, but I think a lot of what

0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:39.480
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump was saying five years ago made the impermissible permissible.

0:19:39.960 --> 0:19:42.040
<v Speaker 1>I can say here in Connecticut, I think we have

0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:45.040
<v Speaker 1>lowered the temperature. I'm a business guy and a progressive,

0:19:45.160 --> 0:19:49.040
<v Speaker 1>so I do pretty well with both wings, the Republican

0:19:49.119 --> 0:19:51.800
<v Speaker 1>and Democrat. I work like heck to bring people together.

0:19:51.880 --> 0:19:55.159
<v Speaker 1>We've done a fair amount on a bipartisan basis, and

0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:57.879
<v Speaker 1>anything I could do in that way lowers the temperature,

0:19:58.320 --> 0:20:04.000
<v Speaker 1>respect the voting process. Democracy is not a spectator sport. Governor.

0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:07.000
<v Speaker 1>I want to ask you about violence in America at

0:20:07.040 --> 0:20:10.480
<v Speaker 1>the moment, specifically politically motivated violence in America. There's a

0:20:10.520 --> 0:20:13.679
<v Speaker 1>wide by partisan majority of Americans who are worried about

0:20:13.680 --> 0:20:15.639
<v Speaker 1>this issue, and I believe there's a new Washington Post

0:20:15.680 --> 0:20:18.640
<v Speaker 1>ABC News poll that shows nearly nine how to ten

0:20:18.760 --> 0:20:22.320
<v Speaker 1>Americans are concerned that political divisions have intensified to the

0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:25.320
<v Speaker 1>point that there's an increased risk of violence. Is something

0:20:25.320 --> 0:20:27.399
<v Speaker 1>we've certainly seen here in New York City and across

0:20:27.440 --> 0:20:30.000
<v Speaker 1>the country. I'm sad to say, but how do you

0:20:30.080 --> 0:20:38.080
<v Speaker 1>tackle that? Social media has been a really um that

0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:41.879
<v Speaker 1>pours gasoline on the flames, and people are watching that

0:20:42.080 --> 0:20:44.920
<v Speaker 1>and a lot of things that you never say in person.

0:20:45.280 --> 0:20:48.359
<v Speaker 1>You see gin dup uh. Some of that's political, some

0:20:48.480 --> 0:20:51.720
<v Speaker 1>of it's just um, you know, threats. Somebody going online

0:20:51.720 --> 0:20:53.679
<v Speaker 1>and making a threat about his school or something. What

0:20:53.680 --> 0:20:55.119
<v Speaker 1>do you do? Do you shut it down? How do

0:20:55.160 --> 0:20:59.520
<v Speaker 1>you how do you handle that? Um? Number one um,

0:20:59.560 --> 0:21:02.560
<v Speaker 1>Like I said, said, lower the temperature. I try and

0:21:02.640 --> 0:21:05.280
<v Speaker 1>lead by example. I'm not a very polarizing guy, at

0:21:05.320 --> 0:21:08.720
<v Speaker 1>least I hope I'm not. I think that makes a difference.

0:21:09.240 --> 0:21:11.800
<v Speaker 1>And I think as if you see something, say something.

0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:14.960
<v Speaker 1>When I see some of the anti Semitic and racist

0:21:15.000 --> 0:21:19.200
<v Speaker 1>things that get um in graffiti and other threats, you've

0:21:19.240 --> 0:21:21.720
<v Speaker 1>got to say something loud and clear. You can't do

0:21:21.760 --> 0:21:24.040
<v Speaker 1>everything by law. You gotta do a lot by attitude.

0:21:24.960 --> 0:21:27.520
<v Speaker 1>Got about a minute left here, and we appreciate your time. Governor.

0:21:27.560 --> 0:21:29.520
<v Speaker 1>We know you're focused, of course on your own re

0:21:29.680 --> 0:21:31.800
<v Speaker 1>election race, but we want to get your take on

0:21:31.920 --> 0:21:34.800
<v Speaker 1>what you see from the midterms. Lots of talk about

0:21:34.800 --> 0:21:37.520
<v Speaker 1>a potential red wave. Is that what you're seeing from

0:21:37.640 --> 0:21:43.680
<v Speaker 1>where you sit in Connecticut? I hope not. I um

0:21:43.720 --> 0:21:46.960
<v Speaker 1>sometimes divided government's not all bad. You force people to

0:21:47.000 --> 0:21:49.679
<v Speaker 1>the center and get things done. I think it was

0:21:49.720 --> 0:21:52.840
<v Speaker 1>a big red wave that would just be um gridlock.

0:21:52.920 --> 0:21:55.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm not sure that's what you want, but I think

0:21:55.640 --> 0:21:57.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, for the Democrats, you've got to take care

0:21:57.520 --> 0:22:01.160
<v Speaker 1>of the everyday bread and butter, kitchen tabe issues. That's

0:22:01.200 --> 0:22:03.920
<v Speaker 1>inflation and that's a crime. You've got to hit those hard.

0:22:04.200 --> 0:22:06.320
<v Speaker 1>We've done that here in Connecticut, and I think that's

0:22:06.320 --> 0:22:10.959
<v Speaker 1>a message that Democrats to take around the country. The governor,

0:22:11.040 --> 0:22:13.639
<v Speaker 1>we thank you so much for your time. Governor, A

0:22:13.680 --> 0:22:17.800
<v Speaker 1>real pleasure to have you on Bloomberg Radio. Governor Ned

0:22:17.880 --> 0:22:20.320
<v Speaker 1>Lamont of the great State of Connecticut. We thank you

0:22:20.359 --> 0:22:25.960
<v Speaker 1>as always. Let's get the take from our one only

0:22:26.119 --> 0:22:28.960
<v Speaker 1>Ed Ludlow are Bloomberg News West Coast correspondent. He joins

0:22:29.000 --> 0:22:31.920
<v Speaker 1>us from San Francisco, once again going nationwide, from DC

0:22:32.119 --> 0:22:35.959
<v Speaker 1>to New York to San Francisco. Ed, in the context

0:22:36.040 --> 0:22:40.240
<v Speaker 1>of today's jobs report, where you saw such strength across

0:22:40.240 --> 0:22:43.440
<v Speaker 1>the board, tech sending a very different message. Yeah, it's

0:22:43.440 --> 0:22:47.000
<v Speaker 1>been a really strange week. Um, let's stay out loud

0:22:47.080 --> 0:22:50.359
<v Speaker 1>that the layoffs at Twitter are sort of specific and

0:22:50.440 --> 0:22:53.400
<v Speaker 1>anomalous in the context of other tech layoffs, right, because

0:22:53.480 --> 0:22:56.920
<v Speaker 1>Musk is doing something specific there. But what we've heard

0:22:56.960 --> 0:22:59.359
<v Speaker 1>in the last twenty four hours is Stripe, one of

0:22:59.359 --> 0:23:02.240
<v Speaker 1>the biggest par companies, laying off fourteen percent of staff,

0:23:02.680 --> 0:23:06.359
<v Speaker 1>Lift the Right sharing platform laying off percent of staff,

0:23:06.560 --> 0:23:11.080
<v Speaker 1>Amazon pulling back on its corporate worker footprint and hiring. Um,

0:23:11.119 --> 0:23:14.600
<v Speaker 1>and there are many others. Um it is. It is

0:23:14.680 --> 0:23:18.640
<v Speaker 1>a picture incongruous with the macro picture painted by these

0:23:18.720 --> 0:23:23.199
<v Speaker 1>jobs numbers. But then again, this is about tech and

0:23:23.240 --> 0:23:26.359
<v Speaker 1>tech leaders and executives at these companies battening down the

0:23:26.400 --> 0:23:30.040
<v Speaker 1>hatches because they're acting what we believe are signs of

0:23:30.160 --> 0:23:33.240
<v Speaker 1>cracks in the strengths of the businesses that they're operating.

0:23:34.600 --> 0:23:37.320
<v Speaker 1>Now that I know, even following all the developments with

0:23:37.400 --> 0:23:41.040
<v Speaker 1>Twitter very closely since Elon Musk took over ownership. There's

0:23:41.080 --> 0:23:43.600
<v Speaker 1>been so many headlines just crossing in the last hour

0:23:43.840 --> 0:23:48.240
<v Speaker 1>here about employees getting two months severance pay once they

0:23:48.280 --> 0:23:50.960
<v Speaker 1>get let go, and now Elon Musk tweeting that the

0:23:51.000 --> 0:23:55.560
<v Speaker 1>company has seen a massive drop in revenue from advertisers

0:23:55.640 --> 0:23:57.760
<v Speaker 1>pulling out. What do you make of some of these

0:23:57.800 --> 0:24:00.320
<v Speaker 1>latest moves? Yes, so on on the staff them selves.

0:24:00.320 --> 0:24:02.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean, let's just call this what this is. It's

0:24:02.960 --> 0:24:06.440
<v Speaker 1>deeply unpleasant that many thousands of people are losing their jobs.

0:24:06.480 --> 0:24:08.640
<v Speaker 1>I think that's worth stating. And that's not me giving

0:24:08.640 --> 0:24:12.200
<v Speaker 1>an opinion. That's you know what I'm hearing from Twitter insiders, sources,

0:24:12.200 --> 0:24:14.160
<v Speaker 1>and many people that have been laid off that I've

0:24:14.200 --> 0:24:18.439
<v Speaker 1>spoken to. UM. The severance is not confirmed company wide.

0:24:18.880 --> 0:24:20.800
<v Speaker 1>We believe it will be sixty days, but in New

0:24:20.880 --> 0:24:24.720
<v Speaker 1>York City, for example, UM, I'm told that staff will

0:24:24.760 --> 0:24:28.000
<v Speaker 1>be kept as non working employees through February second. They

0:24:28.000 --> 0:24:31.520
<v Speaker 1>will be paid significant severance in that period, but they'll

0:24:31.520 --> 0:24:35.680
<v Speaker 1>also stay long enough for another UM batch of restricted

0:24:35.720 --> 0:24:38.919
<v Speaker 1>stock units to vest an rsu Cliff, which you know

0:24:39.000 --> 0:24:42.800
<v Speaker 1>is additional compensation. Musk has not addressed the issues of layoffs.

0:24:42.800 --> 0:24:45.320
<v Speaker 1>As you said, he tweeted that right now, he's not

0:24:45.359 --> 0:24:47.719
<v Speaker 1>talking about in the past, he's talking about in this moment,

0:24:48.119 --> 0:24:51.639
<v Speaker 1>Twitter's revenues being hit, advertisers are pulling back. That's a

0:24:51.640 --> 0:24:55.119
<v Speaker 1>concession from him. And why will Elon Musk's mind. What

0:24:55.240 --> 0:24:58.280
<v Speaker 1>he's saying is it's because these advertisers are being pressured

0:24:58.280 --> 0:25:01.000
<v Speaker 1>by lobby groups who are concerned about content moderation on

0:25:01.000 --> 0:25:04.800
<v Speaker 1>the platform. And I also read I believe when we're

0:25:04.800 --> 0:25:06.440
<v Speaker 1>new reporting, which I want to say your name was

0:25:06.480 --> 0:25:09.320
<v Speaker 1>on this, but I'm not sure, but this idea that

0:25:09.359 --> 0:25:12.080
<v Speaker 1>a lot of these Twitter employees who haven't yet heard

0:25:12.119 --> 0:25:15.840
<v Speaker 1>about their jobs actually joining unions, some of them even

0:25:15.840 --> 0:25:19.360
<v Speaker 1>already forming a Twitter alumni network. What does this due

0:25:19.359 --> 0:25:22.520
<v Speaker 1>to the credibility of Twitter as a company one it

0:25:22.560 --> 0:25:25.560
<v Speaker 1>does ultimately want to hire in the future. Yeah. Look,

0:25:26.359 --> 0:25:29.760
<v Speaker 1>before Musk took over Twitter as a company of people

0:25:30.119 --> 0:25:34.959
<v Speaker 1>across the world, Asia, EMA, New York City, San Francisco,

0:25:35.560 --> 0:25:39.439
<v Speaker 1>it had a very distinct company culture. Um. Much of

0:25:39.480 --> 0:25:43.200
<v Speaker 1>that was carried over from Jack Dawsey's leadership into paragag Row.

0:25:43.600 --> 0:25:45.400
<v Speaker 1>You know, some of the reporting we've done, for example,

0:25:45.440 --> 0:25:49.440
<v Speaker 1>is that Musk has taken pretty severe actions like canceling

0:25:49.800 --> 0:25:51.879
<v Speaker 1>what they call a day of rest, and there was

0:25:51.920 --> 0:25:54.159
<v Speaker 1>so much readership at this story on the terminal, I

0:25:54.160 --> 0:25:57.520
<v Speaker 1>couldn't believe it. So basically, you know, throughout the pandemic period,

0:25:57.960 --> 0:25:59.840
<v Speaker 1>there was one day month where Twitter staff were given

0:25:59.840 --> 0:26:02.320
<v Speaker 1>the day off to kind of recuperate, a day of rest,

0:26:02.359 --> 0:26:05.320
<v Speaker 1>and must got rid of that. Um, he's kind of

0:26:05.400 --> 0:26:07.119
<v Speaker 1>That's just one example of him. I'm doing the culture.

0:26:07.119 --> 0:26:09.800
<v Speaker 1>So on the unionization effort, Um, what does it mean

0:26:09.840 --> 0:26:12.159
<v Speaker 1>for Twitter long term? It's impossible to say. You know,

0:26:12.200 --> 0:26:14.080
<v Speaker 1>all I can tell you is that there are lots

0:26:14.119 --> 0:26:19.560
<v Speaker 1>of people UM at Twitter at all levels, whether it's sales, engineering, marketing,

0:26:19.920 --> 0:26:22.880
<v Speaker 1>who loved that company and are desperately sad that they've

0:26:22.920 --> 0:26:25.679
<v Speaker 1>been part of this layoff process. And and you know,

0:26:26.040 --> 0:26:29.520
<v Speaker 1>many people, I'm told by sources, we're trying to find

0:26:29.520 --> 0:26:32.159
<v Speaker 1>creative ways to stay. They volunteered for kind of the

0:26:32.160 --> 0:26:34.879
<v Speaker 1>projects that Musk was pushing, like Vine or the Twitter

0:26:34.880 --> 0:26:37.639
<v Speaker 1>Blue project, because they felt that if they volunteered for

0:26:37.680 --> 0:26:39.800
<v Speaker 1>such a project, they might be seen as sort of

0:26:39.800 --> 0:26:42.679
<v Speaker 1>willing and Musk might keep them. UM. But you know,

0:26:43.119 --> 0:26:46.440
<v Speaker 1>unionized Asian efforts across technology have been a mixed bag

0:26:46.480 --> 0:26:48.880
<v Speaker 1>this year. I think about Amazon for example, Guys, they've

0:26:48.880 --> 0:26:52.240
<v Speaker 1>had some successes but also some failures to um in

0:26:52.240 --> 0:26:55.720
<v Speaker 1>in unionizing different workplaces. Well just quickly, and we know

0:26:55.760 --> 0:26:58.520
<v Speaker 1>how resisting elon Musk is to unionization just from what

0:26:58.560 --> 0:27:01.560
<v Speaker 1>we've seen it. Tesla keeps going forward. And now when

0:27:01.560 --> 0:27:05.080
<v Speaker 1>we have a class action lawsuit against the layoffs on unfolding,

0:27:05.119 --> 0:27:09.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean, what could this mean for worker musk relations

0:27:09.359 --> 0:27:13.280
<v Speaker 1>in the new Twitter? Yes, so um Musk was sued.

0:27:13.440 --> 0:27:16.399
<v Speaker 1>Twitter was sued by a class action lawsuit here in

0:27:16.440 --> 0:27:21.160
<v Speaker 1>San Francisco. The accusation is that workers say the company

0:27:21.359 --> 0:27:24.160
<v Speaker 1>did these layoffs with the now without giving enough notice

0:27:24.200 --> 0:27:27.680
<v Speaker 1>based on federal law. I'm talking about warn notices right. Um.

0:27:27.720 --> 0:27:29.560
<v Speaker 1>We actually are still trying to report this out, but

0:27:29.600 --> 0:27:32.080
<v Speaker 1>I imagine that there will be a number of lawsuits

0:27:32.119 --> 0:27:35.560
<v Speaker 1>over the timing and how these layoffs were communicated, both

0:27:35.600 --> 0:27:39.719
<v Speaker 1>in line with federal and state laws. Bloomers at Luve

0:27:39.760 --> 0:27:42.879
<v Speaker 1>Law always a pleasure of joining us from San Francisco.

0:27:43.240 --> 0:27:46.480
<v Speaker 1>Never a day of rest. I don't know when he sleeps.

0:27:46.960 --> 0:27:49.119
<v Speaker 1>By the way, breaking news left and right on on

0:27:49.200 --> 0:27:51.720
<v Speaker 1>some of this for the organization. We thank you as

0:27:51.760 --> 0:27:57.480
<v Speaker 1>always for your time for your insight, Nathan. An exciting

0:27:57.560 --> 0:28:01.399
<v Speaker 1>day for us, headline number on for the for the

0:28:01.480 --> 0:28:04.520
<v Speaker 1>for the Job's day. For the market, perhaps not so

0:28:04.600 --> 0:28:06.720
<v Speaker 1>much because it doesn't feel like there's a clear message.

0:28:06.760 --> 0:28:11.800
<v Speaker 1>Two sixty one thousand jobs on an estimate of just one, right,

0:28:11.840 --> 0:28:13.760
<v Speaker 1>A little bit of a mixed bag when you see

0:28:13.760 --> 0:28:17.879
<v Speaker 1>that kind of strong creation number on the payrolls and

0:28:17.960 --> 0:28:20.560
<v Speaker 1>also a little bit of an uptick on the unemployment

0:28:20.680 --> 0:28:24.760
<v Speaker 1>rate as well. It's uh, maybe giving investors a little

0:28:24.760 --> 0:28:28.000
<v Speaker 1>bit of direction to look for, but certainly the direction

0:28:28.040 --> 0:28:30.240
<v Speaker 1>for the markets is up, up, up at the moment.

0:28:30.400 --> 0:28:32.800
<v Speaker 1>It is even as we start to see average hourly

0:28:32.840 --> 0:28:35.920
<v Speaker 1>earnings to hire as well the labor force participation rate

0:28:36.119 --> 0:28:38.160
<v Speaker 1>coming in line with estimates. But are we where we

0:28:38.240 --> 0:28:40.760
<v Speaker 1>need to be? And is the Federal Reserve happy with

0:28:40.800 --> 0:28:43.479
<v Speaker 1>this number. Let's bring in our next guest here, Jeffrey Cleveland,

0:28:43.520 --> 0:28:47.320
<v Speaker 1>chief economists over at Payden and Regal, to get his take. Jeffrey,

0:28:47.360 --> 0:28:51.560
<v Speaker 1>thank you as always for joining us this number that

0:28:51.600 --> 0:28:54.640
<v Speaker 1>we got from the Job's Report. From a fiscal perspective,

0:28:54.800 --> 0:28:58.880
<v Speaker 1>the Biden administration clearly celebrating more jobs in America. But

0:28:59.400 --> 0:29:02.440
<v Speaker 1>how much much of a margin of deceleration do we

0:29:02.520 --> 0:29:05.600
<v Speaker 1>need to really see the Federal r reserve excuse me,

0:29:06.040 --> 0:29:10.479
<v Speaker 1>perhaps take their foot off the book, Gospital. Well, I mean,

0:29:10.480 --> 0:29:12.280
<v Speaker 1>I tell you there's something for everyone in this report.

0:29:12.360 --> 0:29:14.840
<v Speaker 1>If you want to be bullish, you point to the

0:29:14.880 --> 0:29:18.000
<v Speaker 1>non farm payroll beat. You want to be bearished, then

0:29:18.080 --> 0:29:20.040
<v Speaker 1>maybe you point to the household survey in the rise

0:29:20.040 --> 0:29:22.640
<v Speaker 1>in the unemployment rate. So you can probably tell any

0:29:22.680 --> 0:29:25.760
<v Speaker 1>story you want to tell. I would tell you, though

0:29:25.800 --> 0:29:29.320
<v Speaker 1>you probably want to put more emphasis on the establishment survey.

0:29:29.480 --> 0:29:32.600
<v Speaker 1>And you know, if we're adding jobs, you know, the

0:29:32.640 --> 0:29:35.920
<v Speaker 1>three months average of almost two nine thousand jobs per

0:29:35.920 --> 0:29:40.200
<v Speaker 1>months in the last three months, this really strong job growth. Um,

0:29:40.360 --> 0:29:43.960
<v Speaker 1>the Fed you've talked to you listen to share Powell

0:29:44.120 --> 0:29:47.000
<v Speaker 1>the other day talking about the labor market being out

0:29:47.000 --> 0:29:50.600
<v Speaker 1>of balance, and um, certainly you know from the payroll

0:29:50.680 --> 0:29:53.960
<v Speaker 1>data today it's just confirmation of that you have very

0:29:54.040 --> 0:29:57.440
<v Speaker 1>strong job growth. So I think the Fed probably prefer

0:29:57.840 --> 0:30:01.040
<v Speaker 1>much slower job growth enough to get unemployment rate up

0:30:01.200 --> 0:30:05.120
<v Speaker 1>UM maybe a percentage point. So that would that would

0:30:05.200 --> 0:30:06.880
<v Speaker 1>mean I mean, if you do the math, you need

0:30:07.520 --> 0:30:09.920
<v Speaker 1>job growth really to stall out to fall under a

0:30:10.000 --> 0:30:13.440
<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand per month, and we're not seeing that two

0:30:13.480 --> 0:30:17.960
<v Speaker 1>hundred today, you know, Jeffrey. I wonder if a lot

0:30:18.000 --> 0:30:21.400
<v Speaker 1>of investors sort of took note of the commentary today

0:30:21.440 --> 0:30:25.360
<v Speaker 1>from Richmond FED President Thomas Barkins saying that we can

0:30:25.440 --> 0:30:28.120
<v Speaker 1>credibly say now that the FED has its foot on

0:30:28.160 --> 0:30:32.600
<v Speaker 1>the break, does this job's report can keep up the

0:30:32.600 --> 0:30:35.800
<v Speaker 1>case for them that they can start to slow down

0:30:35.920 --> 0:30:37.960
<v Speaker 1>on rates or does there need to be more data

0:30:38.000 --> 0:30:40.640
<v Speaker 1>coming in. I don't think that. I think it's too

0:30:40.640 --> 0:30:42.680
<v Speaker 1>soon to jump to that conclusion, but I have to

0:30:42.720 --> 0:30:45.320
<v Speaker 1>tell you, I mean again, you look at that household survey.

0:30:45.640 --> 0:30:47.800
<v Speaker 1>You could say, well, the unemployment rate rose a bit,

0:30:47.880 --> 0:30:50.280
<v Speaker 1>that's a sign of the economy slowing. I don't know

0:30:50.320 --> 0:30:54.480
<v Speaker 1>if I would say that it's very choppy, noisy survey. Um,

0:30:54.520 --> 0:30:56.840
<v Speaker 1>the unemployment rate has been kind of bouncing around where

0:30:56.840 --> 0:30:58.640
<v Speaker 1>it is now for for the better part of the

0:30:58.720 --> 0:31:02.600
<v Speaker 1>last six months. The household serve is really choppy. Um,

0:31:02.720 --> 0:31:04.840
<v Speaker 1>it's had some big gains and some in down months.

0:31:04.960 --> 0:31:07.640
<v Speaker 1>I don't know. I wouldn't I wouldn't confirm that. Also,

0:31:07.680 --> 0:31:09.960
<v Speaker 1>the wage growth data has slowed maybe a little bit

0:31:10.080 --> 0:31:12.520
<v Speaker 1>month to month. I think the increase today was point

0:31:12.560 --> 0:31:15.200
<v Speaker 1>four percent month to month, a little bit slower than

0:31:15.240 --> 0:31:17.640
<v Speaker 1>we saw, you know, earlier this year and then last year,

0:31:18.120 --> 0:31:20.560
<v Speaker 1>but point four month a month is still pretty strong

0:31:21.040 --> 0:31:24.320
<v Speaker 1>wage growth. We're hanging out around five percent year on

0:31:24.440 --> 0:31:28.000
<v Speaker 1>year wage growth, and that is not consistent, in my view,

0:31:28.400 --> 0:31:31.200
<v Speaker 1>with two percent inflation. I think it's far too soon

0:31:31.240 --> 0:31:33.200
<v Speaker 1>for the Fed to say they're they're putting the brakes

0:31:33.200 --> 0:31:36.720
<v Speaker 1>on here. Thank you, Jeffrey Cleveland. I'm so glad you

0:31:36.760 --> 0:31:39.600
<v Speaker 1>said that, because I literally have asked a lot of

0:31:39.600 --> 0:31:42.160
<v Speaker 1>economists on the show whether to a two percent inflation

0:31:42.200 --> 0:31:45.520
<v Speaker 1>target is actually reasonable um um in the long term

0:31:45.560 --> 0:31:49.080
<v Speaker 1>when you have this sticky wage inflation, uh that that

0:31:49.120 --> 0:31:52.080
<v Speaker 1>won't really go away. But I'm curious how that squares with,

0:31:52.240 --> 0:31:55.760
<v Speaker 1>for example, the Biden administrations moves to on shore a

0:31:55.840 --> 0:31:58.840
<v Speaker 1>lot of manufacturing on shore, a lot of production. Doesn't

0:31:58.880 --> 0:32:02.800
<v Speaker 1>that just create um a tailwind if you will, for

0:32:02.960 --> 0:32:04.840
<v Speaker 1>labor market that needs to have some of the steam

0:32:04.880 --> 0:32:09.719
<v Speaker 1>let out. It depends. I mean, in terms of inflation,

0:32:10.280 --> 0:32:13.200
<v Speaker 1>we have benefited from twenty five or thirty years of

0:32:13.360 --> 0:32:17.440
<v Speaker 1>globalization and technology. Where are our goods? The good side

0:32:17.480 --> 0:32:20.440
<v Speaker 1>of your CPI ledger if you will. Goods prices were

0:32:20.440 --> 0:32:23.120
<v Speaker 1>falling for most of that period. Um, so if on

0:32:23.240 --> 0:32:25.920
<v Speaker 1>shoring means it's going to be much more expensive to

0:32:25.960 --> 0:32:28.320
<v Speaker 1>produce goods, then you know that could be a problem

0:32:28.400 --> 0:32:31.760
<v Speaker 1>for overall inflation. The reason we had to present inflation

0:32:31.800 --> 0:32:33.640
<v Speaker 1>for the better part of two decades, you know, leading

0:32:33.680 --> 0:32:36.600
<v Speaker 1>into COVID, was that goods prices were falling and that

0:32:36.680 --> 0:32:40.400
<v Speaker 1>was off setting roughly three percent services inflation. So it

0:32:40.560 --> 0:32:43.560
<v Speaker 1>is to get back to that scenario. To get back

0:32:43.600 --> 0:32:45.760
<v Speaker 1>to that two percent story, you probably need to see

0:32:46.080 --> 0:32:48.480
<v Speaker 1>goods prices falling again, because I don't think we're going

0:32:48.520 --> 0:32:51.000
<v Speaker 1>to see a big distileration and services side. I don't

0:32:51.000 --> 0:32:53.040
<v Speaker 1>know if that makes sense, but that's that's how I

0:32:53.080 --> 0:32:55.600
<v Speaker 1>think about it. If we can on shore and still

0:32:55.600 --> 0:32:58.240
<v Speaker 1>produce goods very very cheaply, then and maybe that will

0:32:58.280 --> 0:33:00.360
<v Speaker 1>work out fine for the inflation story. We just have

0:33:00.480 --> 0:33:02.840
<v Speaker 1>to see. I think it's too soon to have a

0:33:02.840 --> 0:33:05.120
<v Speaker 1>really strong conviction on that on that part of the story.

0:33:05.280 --> 0:33:07.920
<v Speaker 1>So just thirty seconds left here, Jeffrey is to percent

0:33:08.040 --> 0:33:12.200
<v Speaker 1>a realistic inflation target not in the next twelve months, No,

0:33:12.840 --> 0:33:14.880
<v Speaker 1>I don't think so, just because what we're seeing on

0:33:14.920 --> 0:33:18.479
<v Speaker 1>the services side um and then the good side. We've

0:33:18.520 --> 0:33:21.320
<v Speaker 1>we've seen goods prices to decelerate, but there not enough,

0:33:21.360 --> 0:33:24.920
<v Speaker 1>and we're seeing very strong, as you know, services price growth,

0:33:25.080 --> 0:33:28.080
<v Speaker 1>everything for medical care services to rents. We'll get an

0:33:28.120 --> 0:33:32.360
<v Speaker 1>update next week. Right, I'm looking for another month of

0:33:32.440 --> 0:33:34.920
<v Speaker 1>point five percent months and months growth, so that is

0:33:35.160 --> 0:33:37.240
<v Speaker 1>very strong inflation. So it's it's hard to see two

0:33:37.240 --> 0:33:39.440
<v Speaker 1>percent in the next year. I'm so glad we had

0:33:39.440 --> 0:33:42.800
<v Speaker 1>this conversation, Jeffrey Cleveland. I just feel very relieved that

0:33:43.000 --> 0:33:46.240
<v Speaker 1>someone agrees with me. Jeffrey Cleveland, Chief Economists over at

0:33:46.280 --> 0:33:48.880
<v Speaker 1>Paydon Regal. We thank you, as always for your insight

0:33:49.240 --> 0:33:55.600
<v Speaker 1>in your time on this job day in America. Thanks

0:33:55.600 --> 0:33:59.080
<v Speaker 1>for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe

0:33:59.080 --> 0:34:02.240
<v Speaker 1>and listen to interview is an Apple Podcasts or whatever

0:34:02.320 --> 0:34:06.000
<v Speaker 1>podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter

0:34:06.240 --> 0:34:10.080
<v Speaker 1>at Matt Miller three. On Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter

0:34:10.120 --> 0:34:12.919
<v Speaker 1>at pt Sweeney before the podcast. You can always catch

0:34:13.040 --> 0:34:14.600
<v Speaker 1>us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio