1
00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:09,920
Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.

2
00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,840
Speaker 2: What is up straight Fire, fam, It's me Jason McIntyre.

3
00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:22,000
Speaker 2: Straight Fire for Thursday, October seventeenth. We are two weeks

4
00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:22,880
Speaker 2: away from Halloween.

5
00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:23,680
Speaker 3: Do you have a costume?

6
00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:25,439
Speaker 2: I have ordered mine. I cannot reveal what that is.

7
00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,400
Speaker 2: I don't even anybody's stealing it, but I am locked

8
00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:32,120
Speaker 2: in for Halloween. Got the husband wife combo again. That

9
00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:33,800
Speaker 2: is interesting. We'll see what that I We'll see what

10
00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:35,279
Speaker 2: you guys think. Got a couple of parties lined up,

11
00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:37,840
Speaker 2: very excited. But before that, we got a great guest today,

12
00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:42,159
Speaker 2: Patrick Everson. He is a Fox Sports digital gambling guy

13
00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:45,680
Speaker 2: where covers. He's based in Vegas. I love his stuff

14
00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:48,680
Speaker 2: on the ground, where's the sharp money, where's the public money?

15
00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:50,960
Speaker 2: Where are the tickets? He's all over it. A college

16
00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:53,480
Speaker 2: football NFL is a must follow. Really love Patrick' stuff.

17
00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:58,840
Speaker 2: You guys will enjoy the interview and similar to the

18
00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:00,960
Speaker 2: phasick from the other day, we agree on a lot

19
00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:02,520
Speaker 2: of stuff. This could be a big weekend.

20
00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:02,920
Speaker 4: We'll see.

21
00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:05,600
Speaker 3: We'll see for that. Just need to quickly shout out

22
00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:06,160
Speaker 3: the Dodgers.

23
00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:08,960
Speaker 2: This Dodgers Mets series is kind of stunk, low key

24
00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:11,760
Speaker 2: as the kids say so, Dodgers roll in Game one,

25
00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:15,200
Speaker 2: Mets largely roll in Game two, and then the Dodgers

26
00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:18,199
Speaker 2: smoke him in Game three. Just an eight nothing beat down,

27
00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:22,319
Speaker 2: not even close at all, and Dodgers back in control.

28
00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:23,080
Speaker 3: It's weird.

29
00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:25,399
Speaker 2: The series doesn't have a lot of energy like in theory.

30
00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:29,080
Speaker 2: It sounds awesome, but it just hasn't been great baseball

31
00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:32,920
Speaker 2: as of yet, although it is still early. Never need

32
00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:36,280
Speaker 2: to panic if you are a Mets fan listening to this.

33
00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:39,520
Speaker 2: So after Patrick, we will have best bet for Broncos

34
00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:42,520
Speaker 2: and some props early. By the way, Props released a

35
00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:47,840
Speaker 2: little bit early. Broncos Saints tonight from New Orleans. By

36
00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:50,560
Speaker 2: the way, super Bowl in New Orleans this year, very

37
00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:52,520
Speaker 2: ex said, I've never been to New Orleans in my life.

38
00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:54,680
Speaker 2: I know, Jason, how have you not been to Mardi Gras?

39
00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:58,080
Speaker 2: If we're keeping it one hundred, I've never been a

40
00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:00,840
Speaker 2: guy to want to go to a gigant sausage party.

41
00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:03,600
Speaker 2: You know, that's just not my vibe. And that's kind

42
00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:06,320
Speaker 2: of what I picture Marty Gray as just like you know,

43
00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:08,200
Speaker 2: ten to one guy to girl ratio.

44
00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:09,240
Speaker 3: That's just not my scene.

45
00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:11,679
Speaker 2: But Super Bowl should be a little different, should be

46
00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:14,480
Speaker 2: a little fun, and I'm excited. We'll be down there

47
00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:17,080
Speaker 2: for sure for at least to day, maybe two, who knows,

48
00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:20,280
Speaker 2: in February. All right, without further ado, let's get to

49
00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:23,640
Speaker 2: our guest, Patrick Everson from Foxsports dot com.

50
00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:27,040
Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in

51
00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:30,440
Speaker 1: the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio

52
00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:34,680
Speaker 1: dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to

53
00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:40,760
Speaker 1: listen live. You know, Jason likes to think he knows

54
00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:44,160
Speaker 1: everything when it comes to sports. I know what sports

55
00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:47,200
Speaker 1: dance wants, but for everything he doesn't, he knows the

56
00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:48,040
Speaker 1: guy who does.

57
00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:51,200
Speaker 4: Let's just say I know a guy who knows the

58
00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:53,240
Speaker 4: guy who knows another guy.

59
00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:55,360
Speaker 3: All right, let's welcome into straight fire.

60
00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:57,960
Speaker 2: A guy who is considered by many to be the

61
00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:03,120
Speaker 2: hardest working dude in sports media gambling. He does heavy

62
00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:06,840
Speaker 2: college football tweet storms on Saturdays, although maybe not this Saturday.

63
00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:09,920
Speaker 3: He does a ton of NFL. He works for a

64
00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:11,160
Speaker 3: lot of outlets. Listen.

65
00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:14,520
Speaker 2: He is the modern sports media gambling guy. He is

66
00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:16,240
Speaker 2: Patrick Everson, Patrick, how are you man?

67
00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:17,080
Speaker 4: I'm good.

68
00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:18,600
Speaker 5: Thanks a lot for having me on, Jason. It was

69
00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:20,440
Speaker 5: great to get a chance to come on to your podcast.

70
00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, we've known each other for a while and

71
00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:25,519
Speaker 2: that you're at Fox now doing a bunch of stuff,

72
00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:27,120
Speaker 2: and you know, I wanted to have you on because

73
00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:30,800
Speaker 2: obviously you're like a model of how people should think

74
00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:33,679
Speaker 2: about work in sports media, gambling in twenty twenty four.

75
00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:35,200
Speaker 3: You don't work for just one place.

76
00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:39,760
Speaker 2: You're constantly hustling and grinding putting out good, original information.

77
00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,080
Speaker 2: And we're coming off a weekend Patrick in the NFL

78
00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:47,600
Speaker 2: where road Dogs I believe went nine and zero, which

79
00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:49,120
Speaker 2: is historic stuff.

80
00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:50,760
Speaker 3: And Road Favorites.

81
00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:53,760
Speaker 2: I'm sorry road favorite Dogs got squashed, but the road

82
00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:57,840
Speaker 2: Favorites winning maybe impacted the lines for this week and

83
00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:01,160
Speaker 2: we're seeing some weird stuff. I feel actionally confident about

84
00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:03,120
Speaker 2: this week. What are you seeing out there for Week

85
00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:03,920
Speaker 2: seven in the NFL?

86
00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:06,200
Speaker 5: Well, it is going to make things a little bit interesting,

87
00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:09,000
Speaker 5: and of course a little bit of the trade news

88
00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:12,240
Speaker 5: is making things interesting a little bit. You've got the

89
00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:15,200
Speaker 5: the Jet, the Jets, Steelers line jumping the fence. Not

90
00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:20,279
Speaker 5: sure whether that's you know, necessary, but that's where it's going.

91
00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:22,320
Speaker 5: You know that those are sort of, you know, kind

92
00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:24,560
Speaker 5: of kind of the things that happen when you see

93
00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:26,359
Speaker 5: these kind of trades with a name player like that,

94
00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:28,960
Speaker 5: and you know, maybe putting a jolt of energy into

95
00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:30,400
Speaker 5: a Jets team. And I know you're you're a Jet

96
00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,719
Speaker 5: sky right, Yes, that's a Jets team that needs a joelt.

97
00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:36,080
Speaker 4: So it was in that game on Monday night.

98
00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:37,200
Speaker 5: I mean, look, it was a good game and it

99
00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:39,359
Speaker 5: just it didn't fall their way. But they they certainly

100
00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:43,440
Speaker 5: need need a jolt. But look, you've also got a

101
00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:47,359
Speaker 5: couple of really interesting games that aren't really moving much

102
00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:49,080
Speaker 5: because these two teams are.

103
00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,160
Speaker 4: You know, the odds makers know where these two teams are.

104
00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:55,560
Speaker 5: And first among them, if you want to touch on it, obviously,

105
00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,080
Speaker 5: will be that Chiefs forty nine Ers game, a rematch

106
00:04:58,120 --> 00:04:59,160
Speaker 5: of the Super Bowl.

107
00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:01,600
Speaker 2: Certainly that's a big one. But let's go back to

108
00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:04,040
Speaker 2: Jets Steelers. Obviously, I don't want to do too much

109
00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,240
Speaker 2: on the Jets because people are probably Jets out as

110
00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:08,760
Speaker 2: since I talk about them on every podcast and on

111
00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:11,599
Speaker 2: the Herd frequently. But the line moved, I know, not

112
00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:13,960
Speaker 2: through a key number, but from minus one and a

113
00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:17,280
Speaker 2: half Pittsburgh to minus one and a half Jets feels like.

114
00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:20,360
Speaker 3: A massive overreaction. I do have to ask how.

115
00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:24,800
Speaker 2: Many of those moves. Do you think three right through

116
00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:27,520
Speaker 2: the zero are attributed to the potential of Russell Wilson

117
00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:29,560
Speaker 2: starting for Pittsburgh.

118
00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:34,320
Speaker 5: I think that's part of it, because you know, kind

119
00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:35,720
Speaker 5: of you've probably seen some of this, and I'm sure

120
00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:38,320
Speaker 5: some of your viewers and listeners have seen some of

121
00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:40,520
Speaker 5: the rumblings on social media and so forth too. Should

122
00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:43,599
Speaker 5: the Steelers be making that move? You know, if they do,

123
00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:47,600
Speaker 5: I think that might be part of it. Look, I'm

124
00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:51,240
Speaker 5: a Broncos guy, so I went through a couple of

125
00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:54,839
Speaker 5: seasons of the Russell Wilson experience and I wasn't particularly

126
00:05:54,880 --> 00:05:57,000
Speaker 5: happy with it. It was kind of like the if

127
00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:58,600
Speaker 5: you're a South Park fan, if you watch the one

128
00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:04,159
Speaker 5: with the John Denver experience, not fun. So I'm not Look,

129
00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:07,839
Speaker 5: are the is the Steelers offense dynamic? No, not necessarily,

130
00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:09,640
Speaker 5: which is why this would be considered in the first place.

131
00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,320
Speaker 5: But you know, they're winning football games and and they've

132
00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:14,279
Speaker 5: got a good a very good defense, So I just

133
00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:16,440
Speaker 5: wonder if you make that change or not. And maybe

134
00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:19,120
Speaker 5: some of that is weighing into it as well, feeling like, hey,

135
00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:21,159
Speaker 5: maybe they shouldn't make this switch, And that's part of

136
00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:24,560
Speaker 5: what's what's working along with the you know, the along

137
00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:26,320
Speaker 5: with the trade and kind of the shove and the

138
00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:29,240
Speaker 5: energy that that will give to public betters. H Perhaps

139
00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,360
Speaker 5: the Steelers looking to make a change, has public betters

140
00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:33,320
Speaker 5: uneasy about them.

141
00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:33,880
Speaker 1: Yeah.

142
00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:36,160
Speaker 2: I think Justin Fields is a better fit for them

143
00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:39,000
Speaker 2: and scares the Jets more with his running ability. I mean,

144
00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:42,880
Speaker 2: Wilson coming off the calf. Patrick, I I the last

145
00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:45,640
Speaker 2: what season and a half of Russell Wilson has been crap.

146
00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:47,120
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, that's fair.

147
00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:51,359
Speaker 4: No, there's no no question. I totally agree with you.

148
00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:53,520
Speaker 5: I saw it with the with the Denver Broncos and

149
00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,440
Speaker 5: and and it wasn't fun at all.

150
00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:57,440
Speaker 4: I feel.

151
00:06:57,600 --> 00:06:59,920
Speaker 5: Look, the guy was a great quarterback in his time,

152
00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:02,839
Speaker 5: did some awesome things super Bowls and all that. But

153
00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:06,039
Speaker 5: I just I just think it's, you know, it's not

154
00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:08,240
Speaker 5: his era anymore. And I think you're right. I do

155
00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:11,080
Speaker 5: think whether email maybe it takes Justin Fields more time

156
00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:12,800
Speaker 5: to come into his own, But I don't think this

157
00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:16,240
Speaker 5: is the spot to make a change when you're when

158
00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:18,480
Speaker 5: you're honestly this Dealers are doing much better than people

159
00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:20,000
Speaker 5: expected to this point of the season.

160
00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:23,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, let's go to that. Niners that big

161
00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:24,400
Speaker 3: Niners game.

162
00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:27,600
Speaker 2: They're at home against the Chiefs Kansas City Andy Reidolfha, Bye,

163
00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:31,040
Speaker 2: enter your impressive ats record here. I saw a number

164
00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:33,680
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is like eleven one and

165
00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:37,040
Speaker 2: one against the spread. Obviously, anybody who's talking all these trends,

166
00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:39,600
Speaker 2: everybody knows that, and that's off baked into the line.

167
00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:43,400
Speaker 2: I just I can't go against Kansas City, But I

168
00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:47,000
Speaker 2: don't know that I want to back Kansas City here either.

169
00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:49,080
Speaker 2: I hate to stay away from a high profile game,

170
00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,480
Speaker 2: which will be the late game in the afternoon, the

171
00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:53,200
Speaker 2: big big four PM.

172
00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:56,600
Speaker 3: Game as it is on Fox. What are you seeing

173
00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:57,160
Speaker 3: in this one?

174
00:07:57,440 --> 00:07:59,400
Speaker 5: Well, this is interesting. I talked to John Murray early

175
00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,040
Speaker 5: in the week Sunday night. I talked to him every

176
00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,040
Speaker 5: Sunday night, or somebody at the super book every Sunday

177
00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:04,880
Speaker 5: night for their opening lines, and it happened to be

178
00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:07,560
Speaker 5: John this week. And what he pointed out is the

179
00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:10,760
Speaker 5: Chiefs always seemed, in his opinion, and really it's backed

180
00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:12,360
Speaker 5: up to a degree, the Chiefs always seemed to find

181
00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:14,440
Speaker 5: a way to win, and the forty nine ers seemed

182
00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:18,720
Speaker 5: to do the opposite when it matters most So, look

183
00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,800
Speaker 5: it's a really good matchup. The super book opened Niners

184
00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:23,920
Speaker 5: minus one, and John said the money showed up on

185
00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:26,480
Speaker 5: the Chiefs right away at plus one, so even just

186
00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:28,360
Speaker 5: a point, and we moved to pick them, and then

187
00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:29,960
Speaker 5: they went back to minus one. There's been a little

188
00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:32,840
Speaker 5: jockey on this and literally just before I jumped on

189
00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:36,280
Speaker 5: with you today this afternoon, Jason I talked with Joey

190
00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:39,280
Speaker 5: Fiesel behind the counter at Caesar Sports Book about this

191
00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,480
Speaker 5: and a few others games, and he noted, look, as

192
00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:44,520
Speaker 5: you and I have pointed out, this is a game that's.

193
00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:46,600
Speaker 4: Been on each team's calendar. It's been circled.

194
00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:50,199
Speaker 5: He said, action wise, we are seeing more Chiefs money,

195
00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:55,120
Speaker 5: and particularly more Chiefs than Over money, but not a

196
00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:56,880
Speaker 5: lot of movement on this game. It's going to stay

197
00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:58,720
Speaker 5: in that range. I mean, maybe it flips the Chiefs

198
00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:00,360
Speaker 5: one and then goes back to Niners one or what

199
00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:03,120
Speaker 5: have you. But he said he's just not sure if

200
00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:04,840
Speaker 5: better is at least at this point, see an edge

201
00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:05,400
Speaker 5: on either side.

202
00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:05,600
Speaker 4: Here.

203
00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:07,760
Speaker 5: Two pretty evenly match teams, and the Niners at home

204
00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:10,719
Speaker 5: aren't even getting kind of the typical two and a

205
00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:13,520
Speaker 5: half or three that you would see a home team

206
00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:15,920
Speaker 5: getting in a matchup like this, so it sort of

207
00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:18,520
Speaker 5: says they think the Chiefs are the better side here.

208
00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:22,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, and in these coin toss games, two great teams,

209
00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:25,200
Speaker 2: great coaches like it's you probably can't find an edge.

210
00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:29,000
Speaker 2: So as gamblers, we're looking to find an edge. And

211
00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:32,040
Speaker 2: I'm just curious, how much stock do you, having worked

212
00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:33,679
Speaker 2: in the industry for a while, put in this whole,

213
00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:35,960
Speaker 2: Like seventy eight percent of the bets or on the

214
00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:38,520
Speaker 2: cardinals and eighty seven percent of the public is on

215
00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:41,280
Speaker 2: the packers, because we know these lines move and are fluid,

216
00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:45,120
Speaker 2: and that's not really predictive of anything, but it is

217
00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:46,920
Speaker 2: an interesting data point.

218
00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:48,440
Speaker 3: How much stock do you put in that stuff?

219
00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:49,400
Speaker 4: I don't.

220
00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:51,880
Speaker 5: It's a really interesting data point. I don't put a

221
00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:55,000
Speaker 5: lot of stock into it other than it can be

222
00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:56,880
Speaker 5: an indicator if you like to say, well, I'm fading

223
00:09:56,920 --> 00:09:59,599
Speaker 5: the public. You know, maybe you do that, but that

224
00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:04,480
Speaker 5: should be your Those numbers shouldn't be the main reason

225
00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:07,080
Speaker 5: you make that play necessarily, So I don't put that

226
00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:10,679
Speaker 5: much stock into it. But it's a super interesting data

227
00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:12,400
Speaker 5: point and a lot of people want to see it.

228
00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:14,600
Speaker 5: So I run with those numbers when I can. But

229
00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:16,960
Speaker 5: what I also try to do as much as possible,

230
00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,720
Speaker 5: and it's not always possible because the folks behind the

231
00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:22,480
Speaker 5: counter don't always either have time to give comments to

232
00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:25,200
Speaker 5: provide more context to why those numbers are where they

233
00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:28,240
Speaker 5: are and how they got to where they are. But

234
00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:31,880
Speaker 5: I try wherever possible to give context to what's going

235
00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:36,800
Speaker 5: on with why it's a lopsided game, why the public

236
00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:39,280
Speaker 5: is all over this side, and better still, where the

237
00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:41,520
Speaker 5: money came in, Because remember these, as you pointed out,

238
00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:43,160
Speaker 5: the lines are fluid.

239
00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:44,480
Speaker 4: You could say, you.

240
00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:46,440
Speaker 5: Know, seventy eight percent of the money is on the

241
00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:48,440
Speaker 5: Chiefs in a game where maybe they're a big favorite

242
00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:48,760
Speaker 5: this week.

243
00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:49,480
Speaker 4: Isn't a good example.

244
00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:51,760
Speaker 5: Let's say the Chiefs are you know, three and a half,

245
00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:53,000
Speaker 5: and they got bet up to four and a half

246
00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:57,240
Speaker 5: or whatever, and the lines lopsided. It's worth knowing, Okay,

247
00:10:57,720 --> 00:10:59,400
Speaker 5: where did the money come in? Did it come money

248
00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:01,120
Speaker 5: come in at three and half? Did it coming at ford?

249
00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:02,560
Speaker 5: Did it coming at four and a half? These are

250
00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:07,160
Speaker 5: all important, more important points than how much money or

251
00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:11,440
Speaker 5: how many tickets is where those tickets and money were bet.

252
00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:13,240
Speaker 4: Did they get the better of the number, did they

253
00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:14,360
Speaker 4: get the worst of the numbers?

254
00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:18,360
Speaker 2: You know, so in that same realm, I do see

255
00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:21,800
Speaker 2: Buffalo getting hammered. Obviously, I don't know what you're seeing

256
00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:24,240
Speaker 2: out there in Vegas, but it looks like this is

257
00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:26,760
Speaker 2: up to nine at some spots, maybe headed toward nine

258
00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:30,680
Speaker 2: and a half, and the only team the public's betting

259
00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:33,840
Speaker 2: here is Buffalo. I'm just curious where you fall. Hey,

260
00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:37,080
Speaker 2: is the spot not great for Buffalo? Off a big

261
00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:40,040
Speaker 2: Monday night win? They're not one hundred percent health wise.

262
00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:43,920
Speaker 2: They just added Amari Cooper a lot of newness. Is

263
00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:46,880
Speaker 2: this maybe a letdown spot? Similar to how Buffalo came

264
00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,199
Speaker 2: into the season with high expectations and right out of

265
00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:52,120
Speaker 2: the gate they were kind of shell shocked by Arizona

266
00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:53,480
Speaker 2: for a half and then came back and won.

267
00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:56,080
Speaker 3: Is this Buffalo or passed for you? Or is this

268
00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:56,840
Speaker 3: no things?

269
00:11:57,280 --> 00:12:00,640
Speaker 5: I think it's an I think it's probably an no thanks.

270
00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:03,920
Speaker 5: But that said, I do think it's a leftdown spot.

271
00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:06,679
Speaker 5: And again, John Murray, who has spoken with Super earlier

272
00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:09,559
Speaker 5: in the week, he I think this correlates to a

273
00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:11,960
Speaker 5: little bit to what he said about the Lions Vikings game.

274
00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:16,040
Speaker 5: He feels like Detroit coming off this, you know, big

275
00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:19,480
Speaker 5: blowout win against the Dallas Cowboys. It's not quite as

276
00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:21,720
Speaker 5: comparable because the Bills played a very competitive game against

277
00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:23,320
Speaker 5: the Jets, but it was a big win under the

278
00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:27,280
Speaker 5: Monday night spotlight for Buffalo, you know, felt they needed to.

279
00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:30,120
Speaker 4: Win on the road to end a two game losing streak.

280
00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:31,560
Speaker 5: And so we're not that the Jets didn't need it

281
00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:35,400
Speaker 5: as well, Jason, but really both teams needed that. John

282
00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:37,320
Speaker 5: Murray said of the set of the Vikings, you think

283
00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:39,160
Speaker 5: this is a good spot for the Vikings coming off

284
00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,160
Speaker 5: of by Lion's coming off a big win.

285
00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:42,600
Speaker 4: You've got the You've got.

286
00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:45,040
Speaker 5: The Bills coming home off a big win in a

287
00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:48,040
Speaker 5: short week, by the way, So I do think it

288
00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:50,080
Speaker 5: is one of those spots where I do think it's

289
00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:52,520
Speaker 5: going to be a situational play probably, you know, for

290
00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:55,000
Speaker 5: the Sharper set, for the smarter betters, they're going to

291
00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:58,560
Speaker 5: take those nine points with the Titans. I wouldn't surprise

292
00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:00,520
Speaker 5: bet all. I think it's a good you know, it's

293
00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:01,679
Speaker 5: it's a good analysis.

294
00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:04,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's weird though, the whole spot argument, which has

295
00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:07,480
Speaker 2: not worked forever, but it's been a tried and true

296
00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:13,120
Speaker 2: logical way to bet in the NFL. Among other data points,

297
00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:17,160
Speaker 2: but the spot has not been great this season for

298
00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:19,280
Speaker 2: a lot of these Oh hey, this is the great

299
00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:23,400
Speaker 2: spot for like the Titans last week coming off of bye,

300
00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:25,839
Speaker 2: Colts team beat up and then Titans kind of pooped

301
00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:30,280
Speaker 2: their pants. Rookie quarterback and Caleb Williams going to London.

302
00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:34,400
Speaker 2: Rookie quarterbacks have been terrible in London, Jags familiarity with London.

303
00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:38,160
Speaker 2: Jags kind of got right the week prior. The spot

304
00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,679
Speaker 2: was kind of Jags. I think they finished as they

305
00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:43,480
Speaker 2: closed as favorites. Both of those failed. I had both

306
00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:45,680
Speaker 2: in the contest. I don't know how do you marry

307
00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:49,520
Speaker 2: the spot versus some of what the numbers say and

308
00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:50,079
Speaker 2: you know.

309
00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:53,360
Speaker 4: Priors it's it's a delicate balance.

310
00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:57,079
Speaker 5: And that's why it's I mean, that's why the NFL.

311
00:13:57,320 --> 00:13:59,880
Speaker 5: There's several reasons, but that those are two of the

312
00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:02,680
Speaker 5: reasons why the NFL is so hard to bet.

313
00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:05,959
Speaker 4: One the numbers are generally really tight.

314
00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:10,079
Speaker 5: I mean, the there's no more difficult sports bet on

315
00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:12,319
Speaker 5: the American sports betting landscape than the NFL because the

316
00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:14,560
Speaker 5: odds makers are completely dialed into these at least when

317
00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:16,240
Speaker 5: you're talking about the spread, the.

318
00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:17,760
Speaker 4: Total, the money line, and so forth.

319
00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:20,880
Speaker 5: Even you know, yeah, sometimes games end up being blowouts

320
00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:24,360
Speaker 5: and going differently than expected. But generally speaking, it's just

321
00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:29,040
Speaker 5: so hard to bet. So But that said, I would,

322
00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:33,640
Speaker 5: you know, I would lean more toward finding spots such

323
00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:35,360
Speaker 5: as these. And that's not to say that I would

324
00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:39,160
Speaker 5: take the Titans this week, but I might than into

325
00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:43,280
Speaker 5: percentages of tickets on a team, percentage of money on

326
00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:46,600
Speaker 5: a team. I would be looking more for. You can

327
00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:50,040
Speaker 5: lean more into situational things or of course injuries or upgrades,

328
00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:52,960
Speaker 5: if you've got trades and so forth, or you know,

329
00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:57,440
Speaker 5: travel and so forth. That's not that's adversarial for a

330
00:14:57,480 --> 00:14:59,400
Speaker 5: particular team. That's you know, that's a problem for a

331
00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:03,680
Speaker 5: particular team. Than I would at the Bengals, for instance,

332
00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:05,400
Speaker 5: this week, I'm looking at one sports work right now,

333
00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:08,000
Speaker 5: have seventy nine percent of early spread tickets and seventy

334
00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:10,680
Speaker 5: seven percent of early spread money. I don't think I

335
00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:12,960
Speaker 5: would touch the Browns with your money right now, ja.

336
00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:18,080
Speaker 5: But that said, I would put more emphasis on a

337
00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,360
Speaker 5: spot situation or a key injury or a key upgrade

338
00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:24,120
Speaker 5: or somebody coming back than I would on the percentages

339
00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:25,920
Speaker 5: of tickets and money that are on a particular team.

340
00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:29,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, that Browns game is interesting because they just trade

341
00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:31,760
Speaker 2: away Amari Cooper and it's like, oh, the ship is sinking.

342
00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:35,760
Speaker 2: They're unloading anybody, and the team stinks to Sean Watson,

343
00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:38,760
Speaker 2: but it's still a divisional matchup, and it's still a

344
00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:41,960
Speaker 2: Bengals team that struggled to cover against the Giants and

345
00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:44,400
Speaker 2: the Bengals team that has no defense. I saw at

346
00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:46,520
Speaker 2: one point Patrick last week. I know Sean Watson stinks

347
00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:48,880
Speaker 2: and everybody hates him. At one point in the second half,

348
00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:51,880
Speaker 2: he was eleven for eleven against the Eagles defense, getting

349
00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:53,920
Speaker 2: them that cover. I know he wasn't good in the

350
00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:56,280
Speaker 2: first half, but like there's a world where in a

351
00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:58,680
Speaker 2: divisional matchup, sure the Browns show up here.

352
00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,040
Speaker 3: But like you said, I can't. I can't back to

353
00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:04,440
Speaker 3: freaking Browns. That was my after tax dollars. Come on, man,

354
00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:07,400
Speaker 3: I worked hard for this Mondy Browns. No thanks.

355
00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:07,720
Speaker 4: Now.

356
00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:10,440
Speaker 2: One that I do kind of sort of love is

357
00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:16,600
Speaker 2: Seahawks Falcons. It seems like everybody's off Seattle, right. They

358
00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:18,360
Speaker 2: won their first three, then they've lost three.

359
00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:19,120
Speaker 3: They're beat up.

360
00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:23,240
Speaker 2: They gotta go face Atlanta, which is allegedly hot, even

361
00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:25,440
Speaker 2: though you know, let's be really, you drill down on

362
00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:28,720
Speaker 2: some of the Atlanta stuff and it's like, oh, wait, wait, they.

363
00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:29,720
Speaker 3: Needed to come back to beat the Bucks.

364
00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:32,080
Speaker 2: Wait, they beat the Saints on a field goal with

365
00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:36,400
Speaker 2: like one second left. And then you know last week

366
00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:38,880
Speaker 2: against the Panthers that was nip and tuck until that

367
00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,720
Speaker 2: bad Andy Dalton pick, and it's like, wait a minute,

368
00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:44,280
Speaker 2: Seattle has an offense, the Falcons have no pass rush.

369
00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:46,600
Speaker 2: I think Gino can air it out. So I took

370
00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:49,560
Speaker 2: the three here, which Seattle on the road. I know

371
00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,200
Speaker 2: it's an early kickoff. I don't really buy that Seattle

372
00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,000
Speaker 2: coming off extra time. Anything from you on this game

373
00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:57,080
Speaker 2: seem I'm guessing this is not a heavily bet game.

374
00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:00,720
Speaker 5: It won't be a heavily bet game. But I literally

375
00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:02,800
Speaker 5: did just get something from one on its maker just

376
00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,679
Speaker 5: before coming on the on the podcast today, and to

377
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,639
Speaker 5: your point, Falcons opened minus three, went two and a half,

378
00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,320
Speaker 5: then back to three. And what the south maker said

379
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:13,159
Speaker 5: is the public can't get enough of the Falcons in

380
00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:16,000
Speaker 5: this spot as they fade the Seahawks. I'm not so

381
00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:18,480
Speaker 5: sure you should be fading the Seahawks necessarily. I thought

382
00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:22,640
Speaker 5: I thought they played better than the final score. Indicated

383
00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,359
Speaker 5: against San Francisco my opinion, I don't know how you

384
00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:29,199
Speaker 5: felt about that, but they're definitely heavy on the Falcons.

385
00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:31,159
Speaker 5: The public is hitting the Falcons as we as we

386
00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:33,879
Speaker 5: head toward the weekend here, like in the range of

387
00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:37,240
Speaker 5: three to one tickets and money. But looking with I'm

388
00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:40,480
Speaker 5: looking at DraftKings numbers as well right now, and it's

389
00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:44,239
Speaker 5: you know, it's it's decent tickets to the Falcons, but

390
00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,399
Speaker 5: money is really close to debt even on the spread.

391
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:50,400
Speaker 5: What's kind of interesting is it looks like a lot

392
00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,000
Speaker 5: of customers there, and again it's early, you know, mid

393
00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:55,399
Speaker 5: mid to late week. The money doesn't really come until Sunday,

394
00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:59,760
Speaker 5: so this is a small pot. But they're they're deciding

395
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,040
Speaker 5: opting against the spread and just taking the Falcons on

396
00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:03,919
Speaker 5: the money line. They're willing to lay that little, you know,

397
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,920
Speaker 5: a little bit of minus money minus price and take

398
00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:08,560
Speaker 5: the Falcons on the money line instead. But I don't

399
00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:10,520
Speaker 5: think the Seahawks are a bat spot here at all.

400
00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:12,560
Speaker 5: They've had, you know, they've had some time to take

401
00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:15,440
Speaker 5: They've gotten an extra few days, which to your point,

402
00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:19,280
Speaker 5: I think, uh kind of eliminates that that whole East

403
00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:20,240
Speaker 5: Coast kickoff thing.

404
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, it feels like the Falcons are one of those

405
00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:25,919
Speaker 2: teams where it's like every week their numbers are off kilter.

406
00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:28,720
Speaker 2: It's not like a three a seven, it's like five

407
00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,800
Speaker 2: field goals by coup. Yeah, and so they don't They

408
00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:34,280
Speaker 2: win by two, but the line was one of the

409
00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:35,680
Speaker 2: line was two and a half and they don't cover.

410
00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:37,120
Speaker 3: So I don't.

411
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:39,240
Speaker 2: I don't really know what to make a Seattle, but

412
00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 2: I think I like this team. They got to they

413
00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:43,200
Speaker 2: got to get healthy and I haven't seen an injury

414
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,719
Speaker 2: report yet. The other game that I bet early was, uh,

415
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:49,359
Speaker 2: was the Green Bay Packers against the Texans. And I'm curious,

416
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,720
Speaker 2: are you seeing anything where it's like a lot of

417
00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:53,680
Speaker 2: the tickets on X but a lot of the money

418
00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:54,119
Speaker 2: on why.

419
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:56,840
Speaker 5: Well, here's one thing that's interesting again, just in from

420
00:18:56,880 --> 00:19:00,800
Speaker 5: one odds maker, and it's pretty it's it's the early

421
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,000
Speaker 5: action on the spread is leaning towards the Packers.

422
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 4: But it's not heavy.

423
00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:06,760
Speaker 5: This with this shop sixty three percent of bets, fifty

424
00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 5: eight percent of money. But what the oddsmaker told me,

425
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 5: he said, we've seen sharp play come in on both sides,

426
00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,440
Speaker 5: and he said, this is a really high volume game

427
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,040
Speaker 5: for us so far, and talking earlier in the week

428
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,960
Speaker 5: with John Murray behind behind the counter, he thinks this

429
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:23,520
Speaker 5: is the best of the early kickoffs in the NFL

430
00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:26,200
Speaker 5: Week seven slate, and he expects a lot of action

431
00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:28,720
Speaker 5: on this game, and again it sounds like they expected

432
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:32,120
Speaker 5: to come in on both sides, no real clearly defined.

433
00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:33,879
Speaker 5: I'm going to take a look at DraftKings numbers just

434
00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:35,480
Speaker 5: because I know I have them in front of me here,

435
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:40,760
Speaker 5: and it's almost dead even on tickets of DraftKings, but

436
00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:43,639
Speaker 5: on the spread, but two to one money in favor

437
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,120
Speaker 5: of the Packers. And then if you're playing the money line,

438
00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:47,880
Speaker 5: it's it's two way action. On the money line, they're

439
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 5: taking both teams. So this appears to be a pretty

440
00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,840
Speaker 5: evenly matched game, and and it is being met that way,

441
00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,280
Speaker 5: like I said, with one oddsmaker reporting sharp action on

442
00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 5: both sides of this.

443
00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:58,240
Speaker 3: So we're okay.

444
00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:00,280
Speaker 2: So it's only Wednesday as we record this. But I

445
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:02,679
Speaker 2: am curious when you open up all these spots that

446
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:07,480
Speaker 2: you go to, where are you seeing the aka sharpest

447
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:09,720
Speaker 2: play you bet which would be the biggest money And

448
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 2: then where are you seeing the most public action?

449
00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:13,439
Speaker 1: I e.

450
00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:15,920
Speaker 3: Just a bunch of twenty fifty dollars tickets.

451
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:19,360
Speaker 5: Right, and I think sharpest Playlet's let's couch that a bit.

452
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 5: Not always necessarily the biggest bets, but the most money

453
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 5: from the most respected players and a couple of different games.

454
00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:29,720
Speaker 5: This is from Joey Feessl Behind the countert caesar sport

455
00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 5: Book literally today, so this is very fresh stuff as

456
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:35,160
Speaker 5: you record your podcast, and he said that Lions Vikings

457
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:37,399
Speaker 5: is a pros versus Joe's matchup.

458
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 4: He said, we've seen.

459
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,439
Speaker 5: The line move toward the Vikings, but the money is

460
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 5: coming in on the Lions. And I'm sure you've talked

461
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 5: about this the Lions. We're almost two full seasons from

462
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 5: halfway through the twenty twenty two season up to now

463
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:53,280
Speaker 5: where the Lions have been a spread covering machine for

464
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:55,240
Speaker 5: the sports betting public, and it didn't you know, the

465
00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:57,359
Speaker 5: public figured that out by late in that twenty twenty

466
00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,439
Speaker 5: two season and they've been on them ever since. So

467
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,879
Speaker 5: the public is absolutely coming in on the lines. But

468
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,399
Speaker 5: Joey Feesel again at Caesar, said the sharps really like

469
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:08,960
Speaker 5: the Vikings here, so that's an interesting one where you're

470
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 5: definitely seeing, like I said, pros versus Joe's sharp's on

471
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:16,680
Speaker 5: Minnesota public definitely coming in on Minnesota, which I don't

472
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:20,959
Speaker 5: think is really a surprise. He also noted Joey's Joey feesel.

473
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,400
Speaker 5: The Caesar said they took the Bucks at plus four

474
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:25,680
Speaker 5: and a half and plus four for that Monday night game,

475
00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 5: looking a little further ahead. But the Monday night game

476
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 5: against the Baltimore Ravens, he said the Bucks are kind

477
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:33,920
Speaker 5: of the sharper side, the underrated side in this game,

478
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,159
Speaker 5: and even said that early they saw a little bit

479
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:37,880
Speaker 5: of money coming in on the over in.

480
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:38,640
Speaker 4: This game as well.

481
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:40,680
Speaker 5: He said, you moved two points on this and that's

482
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:42,680
Speaker 5: that's you know, middle of the week, that's going to

483
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:43,320
Speaker 5: be sharp play.

484
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:47,120
Speaker 2: And again this is all relative because you know when

485
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 2: you say, like, hey, there's sharp play, and they're telling

486
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,920
Speaker 2: you this that even all those plays are still usually

487
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 2: winning like sixty percent of the time. Nothing, there's no

488
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 2: like eighty percent within building. No, No, that just doesn't exist.

489
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 4: No, absolutely not. It doesn't exist.

490
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:05,119
Speaker 5: Honestly, if you can, if you find a way in

491
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 5: sports betting to hit it like fifty six percent, you

492
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 5: should put a feather in your cap and call it

493
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 5: Macaroni like Yankee Doodle would say or whatever. I don't

494
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 5: know how I just came up with that, Jason. Just

495
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 5: weird stuff comes out sometimes. But but yeah, it's it's

496
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,399
Speaker 5: very difficult to do. Anybody who's hitting at sixty is

497
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:23,440
Speaker 5: a winning better and making money. And anybody who says

498
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 5: they're winning at a at a rate that's a little

499
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:29,440
Speaker 5: significantly higher than that is on a very short term heater,

500
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 5: I would say, because it's just not something that's sustainable.

501
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 2: Is there a gay Is there anything on Eagles Giants?

502
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,680
Speaker 2: Because I feel like this has gone down and it's

503
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:40,680
Speaker 2: narrative driven.

504
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,360
Speaker 3: That's just my guess. I'm on the Eagles here.

505
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 2: I don't know if they're the public side or not,

506
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,199
Speaker 2: but I just everything I've looked at numbers wise, I know,

507
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 2: narrative wise, nobody likes the Eagles.

508
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 3: Heiriani's a clown and blah blah blah.

509
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:56,640
Speaker 2: The Giants are Giants are turning a corner. I don't

510
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 2: see it. And now this is Andrew Thomas injury. I

511
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 2: know he's not worth anything to the spread, but my gosh,

512
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 2: Daniel Jones already skittish in the pocket, and now he

513
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:07,680
Speaker 2: loses his left tackle and again this is narrative driven,

514
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 2: but the Saquon Barkley revenge game, they dumped him, They

515
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 2: did not want to pay him. It just was like

516
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 2: one of the bigger moves. Also, I think he's had

517
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 2: this game circled, as you said, circled game for months,

518
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,160
Speaker 2: and my guess is that Eagles locker room would love

519
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:23,639
Speaker 2: to give him one hundred and seventy five yards and

520
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:24,400
Speaker 2: three touchdowns.

521
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 3: Anything from you on Eagles Giants.

522
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 4: Well, a couple of things.

523
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 5: First off, let me get I just got some information

524
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:32,400
Speaker 5: a little bit earlier today from a Sharper better who

525
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 5: I reach out to each week for a report I

526
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,120
Speaker 5: do each week for Fox Sports. It's Randy McKay and

527
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 5: he loves the Eagles. At minus three, He's like, he said,

528
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 5: Philly is getting healthy, whereas the Giants are banged up.

529
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 5: After Monday Night football. You mentioned Thomas. He said, this

530
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:48,919
Speaker 5: gives Philly what he thinks, what he perceives to be

531
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 5: a big edge in the trenches against a short number.

532
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 5: But so that's from the you know, from a sharper

533
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,920
Speaker 5: respected better. On our side of the counter, Jason, looking

534
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 5: at the numbers currently at draft, it's kind of interesting

535
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 5: part of it speaks to your part of it speaks

536
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 5: to kind of both sides of what you were saying.

537
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,400
Speaker 5: But midweek at Draft Kings on the spread seventy three

538
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:10,640
Speaker 5: percent of bets on the Eagles, which I totally see

539
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 5: the public being on the Eagles, and probably more so

540
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:14,159
Speaker 5: as we get to the weekend and Eagles and the

541
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 5: money line parlays and all that. But the ticket count

542
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 5: midweek or I'm sorry, yeah, seventy three percent of tickets

543
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 5: on the Eagles midweek. The money count midweek is almost

544
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,880
Speaker 5: dead even fifty one percent Eagles, forty nine percent Giants.

545
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 5: A lot can change between now and Sunday, and nobody's

546
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 5: going to have the Giants in their parlays or their

547
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,440
Speaker 5: money line parlays in all likelihood, which could be what

548
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 5: creates the need for the book. They may need the Eagle,

549
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 5: they may need the Giants strictly because of the money

550
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 5: line parlays, even if the spread betting, the straight spread

551
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 5: betting is close. But a lot of tickets for the

552
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 5: for the Eagles early. And like I said, a sharp

553
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 5: bedow that I talked to Randy McKay every week. He

554
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,160
Speaker 5: likes the Eagles among his couple of NFL plays this week.

555
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 2: Let me just one last futures question before we quickly

556
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 2: do some college Let's say the Niners lose to the

557
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:03,439
Speaker 2: Chiefs close game, twenty four to twenty one, whatever, the

558
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 2: Chiefs will fall or the Niners will fall to three

559
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 2: and four. Is that a good time to bet them

560
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 2: to win the Super Bowl?

561
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,400
Speaker 4: I well, it's certainly in my opinion.

562
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,160
Speaker 5: Look that I think macaffter is going to come back,

563
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:18,199
Speaker 5: and that team is loaded with talent. If it's a

564
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 5: really good game, one of those two teams has to

565
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,120
Speaker 5: lose it. It's not going to impact the Chiefs really

566
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 5: at all. And the you know, the Niners, even though

567
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,440
Speaker 5: they are sitting at five hundred, they're still the coast.

568
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 5: I'm looking at bet MGM right now, they're the coast

569
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 5: second choice seven to one with the Bills, or rather

570
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 5: with the Ravens.

571
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:37,879
Speaker 4: I'm sorry, the Bills are nine to one of the

572
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 4: fourth choice.

573
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 5: So I say yes, if it's a good close game

574
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:45,879
Speaker 5: and the Niners go to three and four, and the

575
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 5: odds makers maybe feel compelled to shuffle them out, maybe

576
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 5: to double digits, Maybe they go to.

577
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 4: Ten to one, eleven to one.

578
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,119
Speaker 5: Yeah, the one down on the Lion down in the

579
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 5: range of where the Lions and the Texans and the

580
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:59,640
Speaker 5: Vikings are right now. I'd be intrigued by that because

581
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 5: I think that the team that's gonna you know, mcaffree's

582
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,120
Speaker 5: gonna get healthy. They're gonna win that division, I think,

583
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 5: and I think ultimately they're gonna be fine. You never

584
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 5: really know, it is the NFL, but yeah, yeah, And

585
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 5: the thing is the odds makers might be like, you

586
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 5: know what, we're not moving them, or we're only moving

587
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 5: them to eight to one.

588
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, that could happen.

589
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 1: That just happened.

590
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 2: I totally love the logic there, and it's just to me,

591
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 2: it's like, listen, San Francisco can play indoors, outdoors, cold

592
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 2: weather in January, does it.

593
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 3: They're not going to be bothered. They can handle anything.

594
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 2: And like you said, McCaffrey comes back, they get Hufunga back,

595
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 2: the linebacker who was injured in the Super Bowl. I

596
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 2: think green Law he should be back. Like they're gonna

597
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 2: be scary in January. You just need their odds to

598
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 2: go down a bit. Maybe maybe it's better if the

599
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 2: Chiefs blow them out thirty five seven or something.

600
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 4: Back might be helpful.

601
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 2: Actually, I would still be interested as well. All right,

602
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 2: let's quickly Patrick do a little college football. Last weekend

603
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 2: was crazy. This weekend, the big game is Texas Georgia.

604
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 3: You're not gonna lie.

605
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 2: When I saw that, I was surprised. Now, I don't

606
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 2: know what it opened up, but I see it at

607
00:26:58,640 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 2: four still.

608
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:06,160
Speaker 5: Actually, this is this is really good. Five exactly what happens,

609
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 5: this is this is such fortuitous timing that in which

610
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 5: you're having you know, recording this podcast and having me on.

611
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 4: So what happened was late Wednesday morning here.

612
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 5: In Las Vegas early, you know, early to mid afternoon

613
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:25,680
Speaker 5: in the in the Eastern time zone. Circus Sports among others,

614
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 5: saw a respected group, respected betters coming on.

615
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 4: On Texas hard.

616
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 5: So they went from three and a half within a

617
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 5: matter of I don't know, maybe five or ten minutes.

618
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 5: Jason Circa went from Texas minus three and a half

619
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,640
Speaker 5: to four, then straight from minus four to five, then

620
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 5: even on to minus five and a half before backing

621
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,719
Speaker 5: up to before backing up to minus five, which is,

622
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 5: you know, a kind of a deadish number that for

623
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 5: whatever reason this season is coming more and more into play.

624
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 5: And what Jeff Benson told me, he's the director of

625
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 5: sportsbook operations at Circus Sports. I said, I can fairly

626
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:02,360
Speaker 5: say that's sharp play, right, and he said it certainly

627
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,640
Speaker 5: isn't square money that is moving a college football game

628
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 5: on a Wednesday. So they saw sharp play at Circus Sports.

629
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 5: I also discussed this with Joey Fiesel behind the counter

630
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 5: at Caesar Sports to give it, you know, maybe more

631
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:16,639
Speaker 5: of a national perspective. Obviously he's here in Vegas, but

632
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:20,639
Speaker 5: Caesars operates in you know, dozens of states, and he

633
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 5: said it looks like a respected for a respected group

634
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 5: came in to push this line out and he noticed,

635
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 5: you know, he noted, we've seen how improved Texas has been,

636
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 5: and on the flip side, we've seen how relatively unimpressive

637
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 5: Georgia has been. So he said he's not super surprised

638
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 5: that they're getting respected money on Texas in this game,

639
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 5: driving that line up to five and a half, as

640
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 5: high as five and a half and then back to five.

641
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 2: I mean, Alabama was a dog at home against Georgia exactly,

642
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 2: but at the same time, Georgia has not played well.

643
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 2: They didn't show well against Kentucky nearly lost that and

644
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 2: then last week against the Mississippi State. I mean that

645
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 2: was nipatuck against a bad team. It was a look

646
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 2: ahead spot, so maybe that had something to do with it. Listen,

647
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 2: I think this Texas team is the best in the country,

648
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 2: But I is there, houses Patrick, is there a chance

649
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 2: that these groups are dummying up Texas hoping it would

650
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 2: hit six and then you come back heavier tomorrow on

651
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 2: Georgia plus six.

652
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 5: It's not impossible, but boy, it seems like this is

653
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 5: less of a head I'm speculating here, but it seems

654
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 5: like it's less of a headfake only because I'm not

655
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 5: sure you could expect Texas to get all the way

656
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 5: to six in this game. I mean, it's such a

657
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 5: huge game, uh, and Georgia is a very good team.

658
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 4: Look, yeah, the.

659
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:46,959
Speaker 5: Mississippi State game, the Kentucky game, they haven't you know,

660
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 5: showed up as well as people perhaps thought they would.

661
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 5: But look, they were getting waxed at Alabama and then

662
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 5: they just I mean that just turned into the game

663
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 5: of the year practically. You know, maybe Ohio stateon and

664
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 5: Oregon would like a would like a word about that.

665
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 5: But still just an incredible game that they very well

666
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 5: could have won. They got kind of a fluky long

667
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 5: touchdown pass and then Alabama comes back and gets their

668
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 5: long touchdown pass. So I feel like it's less of

669
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 5: a head fake here. But will you know, will know

670
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 5: more by based on how this goes later in the week.

671
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 5: But I think this is legit sharp action thinks in

672
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 5: Texas is the side here And like I said, we'll

673
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 5: see Moore as we get to the weekend. This is

674
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 5: gonna be a massive game.

675
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 2: And last one Alabama only laying three at Tennessee. Tennessee's

676
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 2: kind of reeling. Alabama did not look good, although it

677
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 2: was a trap spot before this big, big trip to

678
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 2: Niland Stadium in Knoxville. I don't love Alabama this year,

679
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 2: but my gosh, that feels really light to me.

680
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, there was one odds.

681
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 5: Baker told me earlier in the week that he that

682
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 5: his senses that the public is getting off of Alabama.

683
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 5: They're really I mean, they enjoyed the Georgia game a lot.

684
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 5: It moved Milroe into the Jaylen Milroe into the favorite

685
00:30:56,080 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 5: for the Heisman Trophy. But it doesn't look Alabama is

686
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 5: absolutely a public team and has been forever. But it

687
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 5: doesn't take much, you know, the public get burns a

688
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 5: couple of weeks in a row, and they don't mind

689
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 5: necessarily jumping off the bandwagon, at least for the short

690
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 5: term if they have to. And one odds Viker said

691
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 5: it seems like that may be the case. Talking about

692
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 5: this today Wednesday as you Record with Joey Feesel, he noted,

693
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:24,160
Speaker 5: I think Tennessee, he feels, is just outclassed in this one.

694
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:25,959
Speaker 5: And he said money is still going to come in

695
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 5: on Alabama, despite maybe some misgivings from the public to

696
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 5: a degree. He said, we're going to need Tennessee was

697
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 5: certainly going to be volunteers fans on Saturday, and he

698
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 5: also noted, look, Alabama didn't look great against South Carolina.

699
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 5: The game ended up being, you know, well they were

700
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 5: behind for you know, chunks of it. But he did

701
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 5: note he's like, look, that South Carolina defense is legit.

702
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,720
Speaker 5: So he's not necessarily all that surprised. Although all that

703
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 5: craziness at the end, I don't think anybody could have predicted.

704
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 5: And really Alabama shouldn't have found itself in that position.

705
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 5: But maybe they were looking ahead a little bit to

706
00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:59,719
Speaker 5: Tennessee as well, and they've already had this huge challenging

707
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 5: game against Georgia already and boy in the.

708
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 4: SEC is just every week now.

709
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 3: Wild stuff.

710
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,479
Speaker 2: Patrick Everson, He's at Fox Sports. He is at a

711
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 2: million outlets. He's got a great social media feed where

712
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 2: you can catch updates on everything from lines, totals, sides,

713
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 2: the sharp action. I mean, Patrick, You've got a great

714
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 2: thing going on. Man, keep up the good work. Thanks

715
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 2: for taking the time, buddy.

716
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 1: Absolutely, I appreciate you having me Jason. Fox Sports Radio

717
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 1: has the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch

718
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 1: all of our shows at Foxsports Radio dot com and

719
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 1: within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to listen live. The

720
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 1: only thing better than sitting on your couch watching the game.

721
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 1: He's making money while you do it. Here's your best bet.

722
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 2: Great stuff from Patrick Everson. He's at a bunch of spots,

723
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 2: including Fox. Hopefully it can help you get to the

724
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 2: window and cash some Week seven tickets. All right, let's

725
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:00,600
Speaker 2: get to Thursday night football.

726
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 3: We've talked about this a couple times this week.

727
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 2: I am on Denver here on the road and a

728
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 2: Sean Payton. I don't know that it's a revenge game

729
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 2: because it's not like the Saints did him wrong, but

730
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 2: going home, you know he wants to deliver. I'll just

731
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 2: say this, I'm not this isn't my biggest Thursday night

732
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 2: bet of the year, but I'm definitely on Denver here

733
00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 2: minus three. There's a minus two and a half's out there.

734
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 2: This is not a play on bo Nicks. This is

735
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 2: simply a holy cow. The Saints are so beat up

736
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 2: it is incredibly bad. I mean, I don't know if

737
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 2: I should go through the entire injury report with you guys,

738
00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 2: but I'm sure you've followed some of this. So Chris

739
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 2: o'lave got a concussion on I believe the first or

740
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 2: second drive for the Saints last week, and he is

741
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 2: officially out. He will not play. Rashid Shaheed me he

742
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 2: is out. Linebacker Pete Warner remember him at Ohio State.

743
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 3: Really good player. He's out.

744
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 2: Caesar Ruiz, the starting center, he's obviously out. His backup

745
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 2: may play, we'll see. It's still unknown. I don't know

746
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 2: if he's a game time decision or what. But the

747
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 2: backup certainly better than the third stringer, who really had

748
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 2: his hands full with Vitavea last week in the Bucks.

749
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 2: But like you, when you're talking about Spencer Rattler going

750
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:12,960
Speaker 2: out there and go take a look at the Saints

751
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:16,919
Speaker 2: step chart, folks, Spencer Rattler ain't throwing to the top

752
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,879
Speaker 2: two guys. As a matter of fact, the top two

753
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 2: receivers I'm seeing are Mason Tipton. I am not familiar

754
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 2: with him. Bub means now, he caught a touchdown last week.

755
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 2: I had never heard of him, I somed, Bub means,

756
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 2: who the hell is that? You guys know, I bet

757
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:34,919
Speaker 2: college football. I watched college football. Apparently went to pitt

758
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 2: fifth round pick, rookie. He caught a touchdown. So you know,

759
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:40,319
Speaker 2: even when you start looking at the prop market for this,

760
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 2: you're like, geez, who's gonna score? You know, we don't

761
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 2: know about Taysom Hilly. I'm seeing doubtful right now as

762
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 2: we record this again. Taysom Hill can come in and

763
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:52,479
Speaker 2: give you some gadget stuff from the wildcat red zone.

764
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 3: He can deliver.

765
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 2: I actually bet no touchdown for the Broncos here, just

766
00:34:58,640 --> 00:34:59,479
Speaker 2: in the event that this.

767
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 3: Is a real, ghastly ugly game.

768
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:03,920
Speaker 2: I mean, listen, I expect the Broncos to score not

769
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 2: a ton, but I bet no TD for the Broncos

770
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,880
Speaker 2: at plus thirty three hundred and a couple other props

771
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 2: I fired on touchdown anytime score little Jordan Humphrey. I

772
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 2: bet Spencer Ratler because he is kind of fleet afoot.

773
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 2: I think in the red zone he's probably better off

774
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:25,840
Speaker 2: running than throwing. We know they're gonna load up to

775
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 2: stop Alvin Kamara. And then I bet someone named Devon Vella,

776
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:30,799
Speaker 2: who I don't even know who that is, but I'm

777
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 2: on a text chain with some gamblers and they bet

778
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:37,719
Speaker 2: Vale Rattler and the Denver defense not all books off

779
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 2: for the Denver defense to score a touchdown, and that

780
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 2: could be in play for sure. Rattler, you know, if

781
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 2: he doesn't take care of the football, if he's in

782
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:47,279
Speaker 2: a game state where he's trailing and gotta throw, this

783
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:51,279
Speaker 2: just all to me, says Broncos. I'm not gonna put

784
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:52,879
Speaker 2: it in the contest because then you've got to put

785
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,800
Speaker 2: all your plays in. But I definitely like here Denver

786
00:35:55,920 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 2: going on the road now usually home teams Thursday Night football,

787
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 2: they have the edge, but it's just a not healthy

788
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 2: situation for the Saints. Total thirty seven and a half.

789
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 2: I would lean under, but that's a low total. Going

790
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 2: under thirty seven and a half, you get like a

791
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:15,760
Speaker 2: fluke fumbled punt inside the twenty, and you're just handing points.

792
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 2: And now with the field goals, I mean, you could

793
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 2: see five field goals from one team and seven from

794
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 2: the other, and all of a sudden, you're bumping up

795
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 2: on the total. So I don't have a lot of

796
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 2: faith in either.

797
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 3: Of these teams.

798
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:29,360
Speaker 2: I don't think I have any Yeah, I have a

799
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:31,319
Speaker 2: lave on a team, but he obviously can't go with

800
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 2: the concussion, so I don't have any fantasy players. This

801
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:35,840
Speaker 2: is gonna be a night where I'm not really watching

802
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:37,719
Speaker 2: the game. I'll probably tune in for the second half

803
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:39,360
Speaker 2: because we do have an early tip off in the

804
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 2: men's league game. We will have Richard Jefferson tonight. Yes,

805
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 2: I'm excited. We should have our full a lot, but

806
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 2: either nine or ten guys, first time all season we'll

807
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 2: have nine or ten. We're not playing a great team,

808
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:50,920
Speaker 2: but they do have a guy who walked on at

809
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 2: TCU and a guy who play D two who we've gone.

810
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 3: Up against in another league. He's like twenty five man.

811
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 2: These young guys are good, but should be a good

812
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 2: night in at the NFL. My men's league and of

813
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:04,560
Speaker 2: course we got a root for the Yankees. A win

814
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 2: here put the Guardians on the brink. Knock those guys out.

815
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 2: But good luck with week seven Thursday Night football folks.

816
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 2: We are back all the picks tomorrow and hopefully the

817
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 2: game is intriguing gives us some storylines.

818
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:17,360
Speaker 3: Talk to you tomorrow,