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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast that action All right, here we

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Speaker 1: go from the test throwing out so respect. We're saying

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Speaker 1: it's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 2: That's all we see most gamble is when they go

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Speaker 2: to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to

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Speaker 1: and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I

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Speaker 2: am your host, Evan Abrams, and I am joined by

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Speaker 2: Brandon Anderson for some best bets for NFL Week nine.

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Speaker 2: Week nine man halfway through, all right, we'll get to

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Speaker 2: those bets, Shirley, but first we're gonna talk about some

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Speaker 2: fun trends, some talking points, some things that kind of

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Speaker 2: get us ready for the week. So, if you were

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Speaker 2: under a rock last week and weren't paying attention to

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Speaker 2: the NFL, probably didn't know the favorites one eleven and

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Speaker 2: two against the spread eighty four point six percent. That

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Speaker 2: was the best win percentage for favorites in a single

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Speaker 2: week since December of nineteen eighty five. Is the data

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Speaker 2: that I have. They went eleven into that week as well.

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Speaker 2: I think the crazy thing about last week Brandon was

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Speaker 2: the fact that all eleven favorites covered the spread by

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Speaker 2: seven plus points as well, so complete domination. That was

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Speaker 2: the first time that we had as many teams covered

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Speaker 2: by seven plus last thirty years, So wild stuff. I think.

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Speaker 2: The other thing that is on the agenda for this

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Speaker 2: week is we have some high totals. Even though you

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Speaker 2: have Denver and Houston which is thirty nine and a

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Speaker 2: half forty, you have five games of fifty plus. This

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Speaker 2: will be the first week since twenty twenty one with

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Speaker 2: five totals of fifty plus this week on the closing line,

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Speaker 2: so a little bit. And we had some I think

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Speaker 2: the last two weeks overs are like eighteen and eight

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Speaker 2: or something of that nature, so we've seen that trend

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Speaker 2: as well recently. And the last one I'll leave you

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Speaker 2: with before we kind of bring you in here is

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Speaker 2: the MVP. So right now at DraftKings, Patrick Mahomes is

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Speaker 2: the favorite to an MVP at plus one twenty five

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen plus three fifty obviously they're facing off this week,

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Speaker 2: and then you've got Drake May. Drake May sitting there

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Speaker 2: at five to one. Entering Week five, he was one

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Speaker 2: hundred to one to win the NFL MVP. Now entering

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Speaker 2: Week nine, he's down to five to one. So what

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Speaker 2: he's done this season though ridiculous. Two thousand passing yards,

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Speaker 2: seventy five percent completion percentage that hasn't been done and

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Speaker 2: only been done by Drew Brees in twenty eighteen. So Brandon,

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Speaker 2: you can really hit on whatever you want here. I

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Speaker 2: assume you're interested in the MVP market.

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Speaker 1: Though, Yeah, I'm never gonna not comment on the MVP race.

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Speaker 1: Drake May is interesting. I think I think you're too

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Speaker 1: late if you want stocking, Drake May, I think you

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Speaker 1: missed the one hundred to one or anything close to it.

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Speaker 1: You don't want to be chasing at five to one.

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Speaker 1: That that is not not that he can't win, but

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Speaker 1: that's not a ticket you want to be chasing right now.

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Speaker 1: A lot of it is fattened up on a lot

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Speaker 1: of games against the opponents. Now looking forward, there's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a lot more easy opponents. That's kind of the

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Speaker 1: whole Drake May Patriots thing we had. I think about

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Speaker 1: a month ago, we got in on Patriots futures and

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Speaker 1: make the playoffs. Bet some of that. When we're in

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Speaker 1: on them, I think there will be ways to invest

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Speaker 1: in Drake. I think there'll be ways to invest in

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Speaker 1: the Patriots, but MVP at five to one is very

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Speaker 1: aggressive in part because I remember MVP is a team award,

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Speaker 1: and you got to get a top two seed almost certainly,

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Speaker 1: and so by starting Drake May has to beat out

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Speaker 1: the Bills in the division, and they do have the

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Speaker 1: head to head, but that's a big ask for the

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Speaker 1: Patriots to do that. You We've said this before, Drake

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Speaker 1: May is almost too valuable to the Patriots, Like there's

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Speaker 1: no question that he is lifting up what they are

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Speaker 1: doing and he is the whole offense and that should

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Speaker 1: be most valuable. But historically that's not really what wins.

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Speaker 1: You almost get like the Josh Allen problem most years

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Speaker 1: till till last year. You get the Russell Wilson problem

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Speaker 1: a lot of years in Seattle. If you're too valuable

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Speaker 1: because the rest of your team's not good enough, you're

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Speaker 1: gonna lose a couple times and then you don't get

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Speaker 1: to win MVP anymore. Because that's kind of how we

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Speaker 1: do the awards. So obviously the names of the top

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Speaker 1: Alan Mahomes, that's the big one, right, that's the matchup.

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Speaker 1: This week, We've got a lot on that one. I

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Speaker 1: literally have like ten bets to give out in that game,

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Speaker 1: so we'll have a whole section on that coming up.

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Speaker 1: I think it's fair to say, if you feel like

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Speaker 1: you have a read on who wins that game, just

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Speaker 1: bet MVP. That's it. Bet MVP because the winner of

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Speaker 1: that game is going to be the favorite going forward.

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Speaker 1: With Mahomes at plus one twenty five, is he minus

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Speaker 1: odds if he has a good game and they beat

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Speaker 1: the Bills in the game we're all watching, I think

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Speaker 1: that that's in play. We talk Sunday night on our

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Speaker 1: recap show about Jordan Love. He was thirty to one

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Speaker 1: at DraftKings when we talked about it. He's not played

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Speaker 1: since then. He's eighteen to one now, so we were

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Speaker 1: right to point out some value there. I think what

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Speaker 1: we're going to have coming out of this week is

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Speaker 1: a favorite. We're gonna have Mahomes or Allan that's going

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Speaker 1: to be the guy that everyone coalesces around and says, Okay,

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Speaker 1: mid season MVP, this is it. But usually in recent

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Speaker 1: years that guy is not winning. Because now we have

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Speaker 1: the guy to all pick apart the rest of this

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Speaker 1: season and to find someone alternative to So I think

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Speaker 1: to me, the move is either bet Mahomes or Allan

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Speaker 1: if you want it going into the week, bet your winner,

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Speaker 1: or wait and let the market call us around the

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Speaker 1: new favorite and now you strike on your long shot

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Speaker 1: after that and maybe we come back And is that

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Speaker 1: a Stafford? Is it a love somebody maybe in the NFC?

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Speaker 1: Who do you like in the NFC? I think maybe

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Speaker 1: that's where you look for a nibble.

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Speaker 2: I think that's all right. I think my two points

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Speaker 2: here would be this. So the move for Drake May

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Speaker 2: from one hundred to one to five to one seems ridiculous.

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Speaker 2: I looked last five years. It's only happened two other

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Speaker 2: times where you've had like that short of a span

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Speaker 2: in that much of a leap, And I think it's

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Speaker 2: not ironic that it was last year where it happened

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Speaker 2: twice with Jayden Daniels and Saquan Barkley. I think, given

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Speaker 2: how much interest in sports gambling right now, we're making

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Speaker 2: really really drastic moves based off of games two, game

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Speaker 2: three game samples, and things tend to come back. So

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Speaker 2: do I think Drake May has a shot? I do,

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Speaker 2: But I also think it's a you know, it's a

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Speaker 2: moment in time as a mount, I think if you

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Speaker 2: want Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen in this scenario to

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Speaker 2: get out of the way, I think you want Josh

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Speaker 2: Allen to win this game because I think if Patrick

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Speaker 2: Mahomes wins this game and plays well, I think the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs and him are probably set up more even though

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Speaker 2: the schedule gets difficult, like they can lose to Indy.

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Speaker 2: I think if you want both of them to come

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Speaker 2: back to the field and have other people to kind

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Speaker 2: of take advantage, I think Buffalo wins the game. Josh

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Speaker 2: plays all right, but I think it brings a pat back.

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Speaker 2: So that is my opinion. All right, let's keep moving here.

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Speaker 2: Before we move forward, do not forget to sign up

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Speaker 2: for action Pro for real time pick alerts from experts

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Speaker 2: like Brandon Anderson, myself, our entire action our team. Plus

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Speaker 2: you can access our pro projections powered by Sean Kerner

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Speaker 2: action Pro. All right, let's get to week nine best bets. Now,

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Speaker 2: if you want to tell some of these bets, just

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Speaker 2: look for the quick slip link in the podcast and

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Speaker 2: video description or go to actionnetwork dot com slash bet

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Speaker 2: now b e t n ow bet. Now. All right,

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Speaker 2: we will start with Brandon's pick six. This is I

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Speaker 2: believe the third week of this article. He cashed it

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Speaker 2: in the first week. Second week, I believe we had

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Speaker 2: a few winners and kind of got to the later slate.

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Speaker 2: So congratulations there. But hey, listen, it's a sixteen parlay.

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Speaker 2: The one thing I will say since week six, favorites

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Speaker 2: thirty three and ten straight up almost seventy seven percent.

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Speaker 2: So if Brandon's given you favorites now, don't roll the eyes.

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Speaker 1: Go Yeah. So last week we knew we had all

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Speaker 1: the big favorites, so I tried to throw in a

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Speaker 1: couple underdogs and we got to a twenty to one parlay.

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Speaker 1: I think the instinct was right. Some of the favorites

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Speaker 1: I knew not to trust. We bet on the underdog

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Speaker 1: money lines. We hit Jets last week, we hit Dolphins

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Speaker 1: last week, so I think we were right to leave

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Speaker 1: out some of the favorites. We just didn't realize that

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Speaker 1: none of the underdogs are going to come through. So

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Speaker 1: no Steelers, no Cowboys, really not even close, neither of

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Speaker 1: those two at the end of the day. So back

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Speaker 1: to favorites this week, six favorites. By the time that

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Speaker 1: you listen, one of them will have played already. I

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Speaker 1: did pick a Thursday night favorite for the first time.

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Speaker 1: I'm going with the Ravens and then Rams, Jaguars, and Lions,

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Speaker 1: all kind of sizeable favorites. I guess Jacksonvie a little

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Speaker 1: bit shorter. But then back to primetime to finish out

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Speaker 1: Seattle on Sunday night. That's been a look ahead and

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Speaker 1: hot read, so of course we know I like them.

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Speaker 1: And then Monday night we will preview that one on

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Speaker 1: our next pot. But Cowboys in that one. So those

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Speaker 1: six teams Ravens, Rams, Jaguars, Lions, Seahawks, Cowboys plus five

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Speaker 1: sixty eight. As you're listening, of course, the Ravens have

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Speaker 1: played already, so if you've not played yet without the Ravens,

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Speaker 1: you can do a pick five whatever that is for

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Speaker 1: plus four forty if you like I recommend in the

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Speaker 1: article Chargers against the Titans. If you want to add

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Speaker 1: that in, you kind of get back to a similar

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Speaker 1: price there. So that's the pick six for this week,

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Speaker 1: six favorites. Hopefully we get over the line.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, guys just picking games in primetime looking for the

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Speaker 2: dramatic effect. I get it, all right, best best time,

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Speaker 2: This is your best bet. We are starting with Detroit

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Speaker 2: and Minnesota. What are you doing in this game?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? Like I as a Vikings fan, I am gonna

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Speaker 1: be covering my eyes in this game because I think

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Speaker 1: this is a Lions spot all the way. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: play the Lions, but I'm gonna play just the first

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Speaker 1: half minus five and a half on the first half

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Speaker 1: ats line. Look, Dan Campbell, the Lions have absolutely owned

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Speaker 1: this rivalry. Jared Goff with the Lions eight to zero

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Speaker 1: against the spread against the Vikings. Detroit's won five times

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Speaker 1: in a row against the Vikings by ten point two

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Speaker 1: points a game, last three home games by eleven points

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Speaker 1: each or more. In those games, the offense owns brand floors.

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Speaker 1: It just Goff, the quick pass, the over the middle stuff.

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Speaker 1: All the things Detroit does best is just shredding this defense.

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Speaker 1: The pass rush is not getting there. I know Minis

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Speaker 1: is a bit healthier there, but Amanra in those eight

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Speaker 1: games with GoF at least six catches at least sixty

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Speaker 1: yards every game. If you want to kind of throw

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Speaker 1: that into a parlay, I think that's an easy spot.

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Speaker 1: It's a bad matchup for Minnesota. And now JJ McCarthy

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Speaker 1: magically healthy again now that Carson Wentz. His arm literally

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Speaker 1: fell off last week. So McCarthy's back just in time

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Speaker 1: to face the number one DVAA defense. Thanks thanks a

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Speaker 1: lot for signing us up for that one. Minnesota offensive

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Speaker 1: line has kind of in shambles like that was part

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Speaker 1: of the reason I was high on this team coming

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Speaker 1: into the year, despite my usual nihilism that as a

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Speaker 1: fan that I thought the line would be really good.

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Speaker 1: But they just can't get healthy. Derisott left tackle is

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Speaker 1: playing like five ten snaps some games, O'Neil a right tackle,

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Speaker 1: the centers in out of the lineup. It just does

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Speaker 1: not look good to me. So I don't mind the

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Speaker 1: full game eight and a half. Honestly, I think that

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Speaker 1: probably ends up covering two. We know all the stats.

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Speaker 1: Campbell's a favorite, seventy one percent ATS, GoF Lions indoors

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Speaker 1: seventy five percent, Like you and I are going to

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Speaker 1: give that stat out over and over and over again.

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Speaker 1: They're both right off the buye Goff and Campbell. But

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Speaker 1: why first half, well, minus five and a half, so

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Speaker 1: we get under the touchdown. So I like that for starters.

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Speaker 1: But then Vikings one in six against the spread in

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Speaker 1: the first half, worst team in the league so far,

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Speaker 1: and five and two ATS in the second half, so

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Speaker 1: it's a slow start and then maybe some backdoor stuff

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Speaker 1: coming after that. One in six. The one is thirty

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Speaker 1: four to three against Carolina where they just demolish like

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Speaker 1: the kool aid man through the wall. The other six

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Speaker 1: they're awful. They've lost all six straight up. They've maxed

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Speaker 1: out at seven points in those six games. Average half

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Speaker 1: times score thirteen to five point seven, so margin of

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Speaker 1: defeat at halftime over a touchdown that obviously covers our

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Speaker 1: line here. The Vikings are dead last in DVA offensively

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Speaker 1: in the first half. If you think back ages ago

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Speaker 1: to when we saw McCarthy, that's what we saw really

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Speaker 1: rough early and then maybe finally got a little comfortable late,

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Speaker 1: and the last three games in Detroit from Minnesota similar story,

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Speaker 1: twelve to six basically at halftime on average score. So

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Speaker 1: I like the Lions. I like the first half, and

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Speaker 1: a little prop play in here as well, and kind

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Speaker 1: of why I like the first half. The one problem

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Speaker 1: the Lions have here, as good as they are the

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Speaker 1: secondary is just continue to be banged up everywhere, the corners,

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Speaker 1: the safeties, everybody is injured. And Detroit has all of

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Speaker 1: the third most fantasy points two receivers to this season,

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Speaker 1: including I think really only two true stud receiver ones,

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Speaker 1: Jamar Chase and Roma Dunes. Those guys each had over

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Speaker 1: one hundred yards and two scores a piece in this game.

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Speaker 1: So I love Justin Jefferson and I love him against Detroit.

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Speaker 1: This is his favorite opponent. You know that Jefferson in

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Speaker 1: his career has twelve hundred yards against the Lions. His

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Speaker 1: next highest opponent is seven to twenty nine the Bears,

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Speaker 1: So he has almost five hundred yards more against Detroit

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Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty one yards per game in his

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Speaker 1: career ten games, six of the ten over half at

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Speaker 1: least one hundred and twenty four yards. So I know

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Speaker 1: we've done this. I know Jefferson's been better with Carson Wentz,

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Speaker 1: so I'm gonna skip the standard over seventy two and

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Speaker 1: a half. He's hit that six in a row. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna skip that and just see if he can hit

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Speaker 1: some on high end stuff one hundred yards plus two

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Speaker 1: forty one hundred and twenty yards plus four to seventy

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Speaker 1: five and then probably not, but just in case, maybe

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Speaker 1: like a tenth of a unit one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: yards at twelve to one and one hundred and eighty

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Speaker 1: at thirty to one. Again, he's got games against the

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Speaker 1: Lions in his career at one eighty two and two

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Speaker 1: twenty three. He's had some huge games, and frankly, he's

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Speaker 1: had those huge games even when the Lions are winning

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Speaker 1: all these games and covering. So I don't mind if

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Speaker 1: you want to put this with the Lions player Lions

286
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Speaker 1: first half. You get some negative correlation in there. That's

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Speaker 1: what's been hitting in these matchups anyway. So the main

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Speaker 1: play first half Lions. But I like some of those

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Speaker 1: Jefferson alts as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you took that right out of my brain. I

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Speaker 2: was considering Lions with Jefferson. You know, assume they blow

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Speaker 2: them out, they throw more h I can see that

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Speaker 2: as well. The angle that I'll hit on, since it's

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Speaker 2: your bet, Goff and Campbell fifty twenty four to two

295
00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:42,200
Speaker 2: first half eighths, sixty eight percent, twenty seven and thirteen

296
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Speaker 2: when they're at home, and we always love perfection six

297
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Speaker 2: and Zho facing Kevin o'cofmy. So there you go. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's go to our next game here, Rams and Saints.

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Speaker 2: I honestly, you and I have been, you know, doing

300
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Speaker 2: the show for a while. We've been handicapping together for

301
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Speaker 2: a while. I I can't imagine you're looking at New

302
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Speaker 2: Orleans here, So what are you doing with the Rams?

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Speaker 1: Not a chance that I am looking at New Orleans,

304
00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:10,680
Speaker 1: but only because I'm just sling with how to bet

305
00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,680
Speaker 1: against them? You know how I love these like minus

306
00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:15,840
Speaker 1: fourteen games. I don't want to bet you figure out

307
00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:18,760
Speaker 1: a red, but what's the angle? How do we bet this?

308
00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:21,120
Speaker 1: Because you look at it, You're like, Okay, well this

309
00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:23,840
Speaker 1: is a blowout, Tyler Shuck. Welcome to the NFL. Enjoy

310
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Speaker 1: your first start against arrested Rams defense. Coming off the

311
00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:30,600
Speaker 1: by the Saints are already number thirty one. Dv away

312
00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:32,840
Speaker 1: shuck is a statue like that. We knew that that's

313
00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:35,760
Speaker 1: the scattering report. He cannot move at all, He's terrified

314
00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:38,040
Speaker 1: to get hit. And now you've brought Jared Versu and

315
00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,800
Speaker 1: Byron Young and that whole defense coming at him. I

316
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Speaker 1: just don't see this going well at all. The line

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Speaker 1: for the Saints offensive line has gotten worse with McCoy out.

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Speaker 1: Now we all know how this is gonna go. I

319
00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:51,920
Speaker 1: wanted Saints team total under It opened at sixteen and

320
00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:54,320
Speaker 1: a half and almost immediately dropped a thirteen and a half.

321
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Speaker 1: Do you know how hard it is to drop three

322
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Speaker 1: points on a team total that's already that low A lot,

323
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Speaker 1: so I think it's going to be all blowout, duh.

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Speaker 1: We all think that. Here's the bet rams to have

325
00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:08,480
Speaker 1: the lead after every quarter of the game, and as

326
00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:10,680
Speaker 1: the available you're into, like, look scroll all the way

327
00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:12,320
Speaker 1: to the end of the menus and look under some

328
00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:16,400
Speaker 1: of those specials rams to lead after every quarter. It's

329
00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:19,880
Speaker 1: only minus one twenty so it's basically standard priced bet.

330
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Speaker 1: So here's why I like this one. These are the

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Speaker 1: two fastest teams in the league, So I think faster

332
00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:28,480
Speaker 1: is better for the better team, more chances to be ahead.

333
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Speaker 1: And the Saints have been awful in the first quarter.

334
00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:34,480
Speaker 1: They're one in seven ats in the first quarter. They

335
00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:37,280
Speaker 1: zero and seven tell zero zero last week and the

336
00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:39,320
Speaker 1: snoozer against the Bucks that we don't even talk about

337
00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:42,360
Speaker 1: on the recap really, and I think Shuck is going

338
00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,280
Speaker 1: to be a whiplash coming out the Bucks. That's kind

339
00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:47,720
Speaker 1: of a slow defense, not a lot of pass rush there.

340
00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:50,240
Speaker 1: This is a very different matchup with the Rams. The

341
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Speaker 1: arrested Rams. Saints defense thirty first and DVA in the

342
00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:57,200
Speaker 1: first quarter is by far the worst of the season.

343
00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:00,200
Speaker 1: They get better kind of in garbage time late. So

344
00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:04,520
Speaker 1: Rams the Saints to trail every quarter has hit in

345
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Speaker 1: six of their seven losses already this year. Again all

346
00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:10,000
Speaker 1: of them except the Bucks game last week when they

347
00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:12,320
Speaker 1: were just tied zero zero and then trailed all the

348
00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:15,440
Speaker 1: rest of the quarter. So in other words, the Saints

349
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:18,600
Speaker 1: have played eight games, they've lost seven of them, and

350
00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:21,439
Speaker 1: in those seven games of twenty eight quarters, they've trailed

351
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Speaker 1: at the end of twenty seven of the twenty eight quarters.

352
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Speaker 1: So we just need all four of them here. Rams.

353
00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:31,719
Speaker 1: First quarter money line is past minus three hundred, So

354
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Speaker 1: we basically are just saying, okay, that lead at the

355
00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:37,200
Speaker 1: end of the quarter, and then keep the lead, don't

356
00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:40,080
Speaker 1: blow it to Tyler's shock. All right. Seems easy to me.

357
00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:42,360
Speaker 1: I don't know why this is minus twenty. I don't

358
00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:44,959
Speaker 1: know what the correct price should be, but it strikes

359
00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:47,359
Speaker 1: me as like a minus three hundred type bet. And

360
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:50,560
Speaker 1: I did find a little way to play the Saints

361
00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:53,560
Speaker 1: team total. We can now as a mine shaft the Saints.

362
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:55,120
Speaker 1: I'm not going to play the thirteen and a half.

363
00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:59,720
Speaker 1: But the Rams have allowed this season nine points, once,

364
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:04,480
Speaker 1: seven points, even three points in a game. So Saints

365
00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,679
Speaker 1: alternate team total under ten and a half plus two

366
00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:10,760
Speaker 1: forty six at DraftKings. Rams have hit that three times

367
00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:14,480
Speaker 1: already defensively, and now it's Tyler shock. Sign me up

368
00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:18,640
Speaker 1: and Rams to shut the Saints out. Not a great

369
00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:21,159
Speaker 1: bet usually because we don't get too many shutouts this season.

370
00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:25,119
Speaker 1: Fifteen to one at DraftKings look for shutout, or you

371
00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,320
Speaker 1: can do like an alternate under two and a half

372
00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:30,080
Speaker 1: points basically, you know, just in case they get a

373
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:33,040
Speaker 1: stupid safety and there it's the same price anyway, Fifteen

374
00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:36,440
Speaker 1: to one for the shotout that's the bet on Saints

375
00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:38,440
Speaker 1: all the way down on the mind shaft. I think

376
00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,359
Speaker 1: this could be a rude welcome to the NFL for

377
00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:42,119
Speaker 1: Tyler Shock.

378
00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:44,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, great price. The only thing I'll add to is

379
00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:47,440
Speaker 2: New Orleans. You mentioned it first quarter terrible. Well, they're

380
00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:50,440
Speaker 2: minus fifty two point differential in the first quarter. It

381
00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:54,040
Speaker 2: is the second worst quarter of any team this year.

382
00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 2: Carolina second quarter is minus sixty two. But that's it.

383
00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,560
Speaker 2: So nobody starts get games worse than New Orleans, so

384
00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:03,639
Speaker 2: we'll see if that keeps up. All right, let's go

385
00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:07,040
Speaker 2: to our next game here, Jaguars and Raiders. We got

386
00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:09,359
Speaker 2: some great games in his slate, but somehow you're telling

387
00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 2: me you have a great bet in this game. So

388
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:13,720
Speaker 2: what would you like from Jaguars and Raiders.

389
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm really excited to watch this game, not necessarily

390
00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:19,320
Speaker 1: for this bet, but for a couple of props we'll

391
00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:21,280
Speaker 1: get to in a second. I like the under here,

392
00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:23,960
Speaker 1: under forty five and a half, so I do have

393
00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:26,920
Speaker 1: Jaguars in the pick six. We talked about that. It's

394
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:30,359
Speaker 1: minus three, trending three and a half at books. I

395
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:32,520
Speaker 1: don't know. I don't need to be laying above the

396
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:36,399
Speaker 1: hook on a key number on the Jaguars on a

397
00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,320
Speaker 1: road game. I don't know if I need that in

398
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,120
Speaker 1: my life, so I don't think i'll take Jaguars besides

399
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,159
Speaker 1: the money line. But I do think Liam Cohen and

400
00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:46,520
Speaker 1: this team. So both teams are coming off the bye

401
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,440
Speaker 1: week here, I think it's more important for the Jacksonville

402
00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:52,199
Speaker 1: side because Liam Cohen and his staff one of the

403
00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:56,360
Speaker 1: youngest coaching staffs in the league. I think getting settled

404
00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,520
Speaker 1: a little bit is big for that team. The Raiders,

405
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,320
Speaker 1: they're off the bye two. They're thirtieth and offense by

406
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:05,240
Speaker 1: dv Away. I don't know if I really believe like

407
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:07,439
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll, maybe just like took a nap for the

408
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:09,840
Speaker 1: last week, like we got old man Carroll and old

409
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,200
Speaker 1: man Gino. I'm not sure if the bye week's gonna

410
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,360
Speaker 1: do a whole lot to fix that. It will get

411
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:16,399
Speaker 1: brock Bauers back, which we'll get to in a second.

412
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:20,400
Speaker 1: But both of these teams actually better defense than you think.

413
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:23,119
Speaker 1: They're both by dv Away fringe top ten, which is

414
00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:25,119
Speaker 1: not what I would have thought on either side here.

415
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 1: So under forty five and a half really is a

416
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:31,400
Speaker 1: trends play. Raiders are five and two to the under

417
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 1: this season. That's second best in the NFL. Both teams

418
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:36,679
Speaker 1: are five and two to the first half under, so

419
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 1: hopefully we get kind of a slow plotting start here.

420
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:41,919
Speaker 1: And then you had a stat similar to this in

421
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:45,479
Speaker 1: your article unders off the double by so both teams

422
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 1: coming off the bye week rested and ready unders in

423
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 1: the last two decades twenty nine, fifteen and one sixty

424
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,040
Speaker 1: six percent, so basically two thirds of the time. And

425
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:57,440
Speaker 1: you had the stat as well. Teams off of a

426
00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:00,760
Speaker 1: bye week after getting shut out. That's the Raider Their

427
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 1: games are eight and one to the under since two

428
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:05,480
Speaker 1: thousand and nine. I didn't have that until I saw

429
00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 1: your article, and I already liked the under anyway, so

430
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 1: we'll just add it to our case. So Jaguars Raiders under.

431
00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,000
Speaker 1: But let me get into the props that I love

432
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 1: on this game, because I actually am excited to probably

433
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 1: watch back the game. Not a lot of live action

434
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 1: on Jags Raiders. But I like Brock Bowers and I

435
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 1: like Travis Hunter. I think these are two of the

436
00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,320
Speaker 1: league's brightest young pass catchers, and I'm taking the escalator

437
00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,439
Speaker 1: in both these guys. I think we could see a

438
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,920
Speaker 1: breakout for either of both of them. So Bowers tight

439
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 1: end misses tight end day, he's on by a week.

440
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:39,440
Speaker 1: He's kind of missed this season. He first game, five catches,

441
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,720
Speaker 1: one hundred and three yards through three quarters in the opener,

442
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 1: and then he gets hurt and he's missing, kind of

443
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 1: slogs through injury. After that, played a couple of games,

444
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 1: didn't do that well. He's finally finally rested back now.

445
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,440
Speaker 1: I think we should expect his full speed. He last

446
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:57,239
Speaker 1: year played Jacksonville. He had eleven catches for ninety nine

447
00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 1: yards in that game. It was one of his best

448
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 1: games of his career. It was Jacksonville's worst game allowed

449
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 1: to a tight end, even though they're bottom ten against

450
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,880
Speaker 1: tight ends last year and this year by Fantasy points.

451
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 1: So Bowers over forty five and a half yards. I

452
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:13,800
Speaker 1: think that line is artificially suppressed. I think we are

453
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:17,120
Speaker 1: getting the I'm not sure if he's gonna play enough.

454
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if he's healthy. I think that's the line.

455
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,640
Speaker 1: But he's been sitting out for weeks and set out

456
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 1: through the bye a week specifically to be ready. He's

457
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,680
Speaker 1: over forty five and a half in fourteen of twenty

458
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:29,880
Speaker 1: one games in his career, he's averaging sixty eight yards

459
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,560
Speaker 1: a game, so this line should not be this low.

460
00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 1: I think we're getting a bargain price because of the injury.

461
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,320
Speaker 1: Even this year, playing hurt, he said at least thirty

462
00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 1: eight yards every game, So we only need forty six.

463
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:44,160
Speaker 1: We're right there, even with the injured version of Bowers.

464
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 1: So over the forty five and a half and then

465
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 1: ninety yards is six to one. He's had ninety yards

466
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 1: in a third of the games in his career, again,

467
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 1: including the Jacksonville game last season. And then I like

468
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:58,120
Speaker 1: receptions too. Eight receptions is plus four to seventy five.

469
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 1: He's had eight catches in a third his games in

470
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 1: his career. Ten receptions is fifteen to one. Again, he

471
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 1: had eleven against Jacksonville just last season. So if he's ready,

472
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 1: I don't know if they're even playing Jacobe Myers at

473
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 1: this point. They're trying to trade him. He's the guy.

474
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 1: He's the only receiver there now. So I like Bowers

475
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 1: a lot.

476
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, he took the stat and he did it all.

477
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 2: He did, you know, everything, So this is I mean

478
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:23,920
Speaker 2: I like that. I like it as well. I mean,

479
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 2: I think these two teams and the slog behind Geno.

480
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:28,199
Speaker 2: I mean, he's six and two to the under in

481
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 2: his last eight home games include Seattle as well. So

482
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 2: I just feel like this one is going to start slow,

483
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,199
Speaker 2: and I kind of feel like you're still assuming some

484
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 2: mayor with that Bower's line. So if you're right and

485
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 2: he's ready to roll, he should go over that line.

486
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 2: It's also going up in a few books, so shop around.

487
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 2: But yeah, what else you got here?

488
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, Bowers and Hunter. I kept watching for their lines

489
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:54,959
Speaker 1: all week long, and we just barely got lines posted

490
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 1: right before of recording today, so be sure to grab those.

491
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,880
Speaker 1: I do think both lines will go up. Hunter. Look,

492
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 1: here's my Rookie of the Year pick. I think that's

493
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 1: probably wash at this point. He's under three hundred yards

494
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 1: on the season. One touchdown. He's ad forty two yards

495
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 1: or the last all but two games, but signs of

496
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: life heading into the bye a week. Here's some numbers

497
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 1: from the last three games in a row. Snapcount from

498
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 1: sixty five percent to seventy nine to eighty seven percent

499
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,639
Speaker 1: on offense. Get out of here, defensive Hunter, play some offense.

500
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 1: We need a receiver. Brian Thomas got alligator arms over

501
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: here and can't catch the ball anymore. We need you Hunter.

502
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:30,159
Speaker 1: I think he's kind of shaping up to be the

503
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 1: new wide receiver. One targets heading into the buy three,

504
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,879
Speaker 1: then seven, and then fourteen of the last game, he

505
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 1: had eight catches, one hundred and one yards and a

506
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 1: score in that game against the Rams. And I was

507
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 1: excited before the season because in this Liam Cohen offense,

508
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 1: we saw two good receivers last year Evans and Godwin,

509
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 1: and I thought Hunter was the Godwin, the power slot role.

510
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,160
Speaker 1: But then he missed training camp, remember he was injured.

511
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 1: So I think now saddling in figuring out the offense,

512
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 1: defense thing, getting healthy, and now two weeks off, I

513
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 1: think this is when it's time to unleash Travis Hunter.

514
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,959
Speaker 1: The Raiders are top five and Fantasy Points allowed two receivers.

515
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,239
Speaker 1: They have allowed eight receivers at least five catches. They

516
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 1: have allowed eleven receivers at least forty seven yards. Forty

517
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 1: seven is the number we need over forty six and

518
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 1: a half Travis Hunter on the yards. That's the bet

519
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 1: seventy yards or more. As a little escalator at plus

520
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 1: two forty, the Raiders haven't really allowed huge games to

521
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 1: single receivers. They kind of let teams spread around on them.

522
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 1: But I'll nibble anyway in case we get the break aus.

523
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 1: I think that the odds are bad here. One hundred

524
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,160
Speaker 1: yards is seven point fifty and one hundred and twenty

525
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 1: yards is fourteen to one. Probably not too crazy. I'll

526
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 1: put most of the my bet here just down the over.

527
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 1: But I think Travis Hunter back half of the season,

528
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 1: he might be wide receiver one in Jacksonville, and I

529
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 1: think this is a good spot for him to start

530
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 1: to show it.

531
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, you've been hearing it through Liam Cohen, but it's

532
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:57,199
Speaker 2: actually in the facts that he's just playing more on

533
00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 2: the offensive side of the ball. He're his some stats

534
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 2: last three weeks so offensive snap percentage sixty five percent,

535
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:10,159
Speaker 2: eighty percent, eighty seven percent and route percentage eighty seven percent,

536
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 2: ninety four percent, ninety six percent, so last three weeks,

537
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 2: and I think you're gonna see it even more now.

538
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 2: They just need him on that side of the ball,

539
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 2: and I think they're going to move him around a lot.

540
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 2: And if you can predict where you're gonna see him more,

541
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 2: it's the bets you're gonna have to take. All right,

542
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 2: we have waited long enough. It's time to talk Chiefs

543
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 2: and Bills matchup, honestly matchup of the season, except maybe

544
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 2: you want to argue that next Monday Night football is

545
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 2: going to be just as good as Eagles Packers, but

546
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:40,919
Speaker 2: one AFC, one NFC. The next two weeks you're going

547
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 2: to be fantastic. So to me, I want to hear

548
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,360
Speaker 2: what you think about this game, just off the back,

549
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 2: because I feel like every year we handicap kind of

550
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 2: this same matchup. Now, listen, there's new characters, there's new weapons,

551
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 2: there's different things about the teams that make them different.

552
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:02,040
Speaker 2: But I think stylistically read dermot Alan Mahomes, like you

553
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 2: kind of know what you're gonna get, at least from

554
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 2: a prediction to a standpoint like that's the way we

555
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 2: hate to catch the game, So how are you gonna

556
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 2: do that this week?

557
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:11,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there's a lot that we pretty much

558
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 1: know what we're getting. It's Mahomes Allen ten right, Like

559
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 1: it's too fast, too furious, and you just keep making

560
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 1: more sequels because they're all good. They're all the same,

561
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 1: but it doesn't matter, like they're great. Let's keep watching

562
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 1: over and over. So yeah, for my money, this is

563
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,120
Speaker 1: the game of the year. This is the best rivalry

564
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,080
Speaker 1: in football. This is very likely a matchup we will

565
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 1: see again in January, if history is any indication, and

566
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,199
Speaker 1: it usually has been in recent years. And this has

567
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,919
Speaker 1: been one of my favorite games to bet because if

568
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 1: you're a longtime listener here and Evan, you and I

569
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:44,159
Speaker 1: have recorded on this game before multiple times. I'm running

570
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,360
Speaker 1: back pretty much my same bets. I just run back

571
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 1: my notes and I'm like, yeah, all these things keep hitting.

572
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:50,880
Speaker 1: We kind of know the script here, right, we watch

573
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:54,440
Speaker 1: Mahomes watch Alan, game goes back and forth, it's close

574
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 1: late Mano amano. Last one with the ball wins, right, Okay,

575
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,040
Speaker 1: well who gets the ball last? I don't know. I

576
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,119
Speaker 1: don't really know who wins. But so you said matchup. Okay,

577
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:05,239
Speaker 1: Here's what I think off the top. The Chiefs are

578
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:09,159
Speaker 1: on short rest, eh, sort of. They weren't really stressed

579
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 1: on Monday night. I'm not making too much of that.

580
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 1: They're heading into the bye week. I think that you

581
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,120
Speaker 1: know this is the game, this is the one you've

582
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 1: been watching for with the Chiefs. I don't make too

583
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 1: much of that. I don't love the offensive line still.

584
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 1: I think Josh Simmons the left tackle, we're probably still

585
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 1: not quite there yet. Trey Smith the right guard, I'm

586
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 1: not sure about him. It looks like but Checko is

587
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,680
Speaker 1: probably out. I do think that matters a lot here.

588
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 1: The Bills run defense is not great and Kareem Hunt

589
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 1: is kind of you know, as a Vikings fan back

590
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 1: in the day, we had Lee Roy Horde. If you

591
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 1: need three yards, I'll give you four. If you need

592
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 1: ten yards, I'll give you four. Like that's that's Kareem Hunt.

593
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 1: He's just gonna kind of give you what you get.

594
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 1: So I do think that's a miss the Bills, though,

595
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 1: at Oliver is the biggest name missing for them. At

596
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: Oliver and Daiku and Jones, both their dtackles are missing.

597
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 1: Bill's defense. I think it's clearly the weak link in

598
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 1: the match up. We know both offenses are really good,

599
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 1: we know the quarterbacks are great. Chiefs defense has been

600
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 1: kind of fringe top ten. That's what I thought both

601
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,959
Speaker 1: of these teams would be. The Bills have not been that.

602
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: The Bill's run defense has been really bad. And I

603
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 1: think for the Chiefs, is it their short passing game?

604
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 1: Is that kind of their run game? That beats up

605
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:22,720
Speaker 1: on the Bill's sort of run defense. Typically I look

606
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 1: Travis Kelce props in this matchup, but last year Kelsey

607
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 1: was invisible. The Bills kind of took him out. He

608
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 1: had two catches for eight and two catches for nineteen.

609
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 1: So I don't know if I need Kelsey props here.

610
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 1: I started with that. Probably where Shie Rice is going

611
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 1: to be heavily involved with the Bills. They're missing Josh

612
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 1: Palmer also kind of shorthanded at receiver. We will see

613
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 1: if they don't do well in this game. You come

614
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 1: out and you got like one day to make a

615
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 1: trade before the deadline, do they go get a receiver

616
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 1: like we've seen them do again? Typically I look Khalil

617
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 1: shak here. He's really good in this matchup for Buffalo.

618
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 1: Kind of the security blanket, I believe. If I remember

619
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 1: right last year, that was the key player, right, Shakira

620
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 1: like motion out of the backfield and Alan just overthrows

621
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 1: him on the fourth down and that's the end of

622
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 1: the season. However, I like shakuiir props, but Rookie and

623
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 1: Noel Williams that corner has been really good for the Chiefs.

624
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 1: I think he's been good enough to let Trent McDuffie

625
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 1: the star corner, move into the slot, maybe move around

626
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 1: with Shakir, And I think that can take away one

627
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 1: of those security blankets for Buffalo. And I'm a little

628
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 1: worried that the current Bills team is much less last

629
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 1: year's version and more of the previous ones where we

630
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 1: talked about MVP at the top. Is this an MVP

631
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 1: Allen team where he's got to do everything because Shakira

632
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 1: is getting covered. James Cook has been good, but can

633
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 1: they kind of saphon off the run game a little bit? Yeah,

634
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 1: it's an exciting matchup that we could do a whole

635
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 1: podcast on. But that's kind of why I make it

636
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 1: the matchup before I get to some of my angles

637
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 1: on it. What are you looking at here in the matchup?

638
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 2: The matchup to me is kind of simple. It comes

639
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 2: down to pressure Buffalo's side on Patrick Mahomes. I'll give

640
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 2: you a few stats before I tossed it back. So

641
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 2: this year, Buffalo has allowed the fifth fewest checkdowns to

642
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 2: opposing quarterbacks. It was the sixth most last year, so

643
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 2: that just says something kind of about their defense. But

644
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 2: the thing that's a little interesting and maybe a little

645
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 2: bit misdirection. Is their defense is also allowing the lowest

646
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 2: rate of clean pockets, so they're doing a really good job.

647
00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 2: And listen to this list. They're number one in the

648
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 2: NFL in a defense lowest rate of clean pockets fifty

649
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 2: five percent and the highest pressure rate. Okay, the other

650
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 2: defenses are Denver in Cleveland. It's just not something you

651
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 2: would expect. So I think you're seeing very different defenses

652
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 2: out of Buffalo based off of opponent. That's my solution

653
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 2: on what I think is going on here. So here's

654
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:51,479
Speaker 2: what I saw last six games Mahomes versus the Bills.

655
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 2: Here's the pressure stats. He has seven passing touchdowns and

656
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 2: no picks in a clean pocket when the pocket is

657
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 2: under pressure, five touchdowns and five picks in play action.

658
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 2: In the screen game, he has four touchdowns and no interceptions.

659
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 2: To me, this just comes down to if that clean

660
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 2: pocket percentage and doing exactly what they've done up to

661
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 2: this point this season is accurate. I think Buffalo's gonna

662
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 2: stay in this game. If they let Pac just sit there,

663
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 2: I think they're torched. And the thing like Rogers pack

664
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 2: gets out the ball really quickly, especially in these games

665
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 2: when he knows everyone's ramped up, so that I'm gonna

666
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 2: be absolutely like fascinated when the Chiefs are on offense.

667
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 2: When the Bills are on offense, I think they're gonna

668
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 2: struggle a little bit unless they rely on the run.

669
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 2: Like I just don't have faith in their passing game.

670
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 2: I think, yes, Shakir could be here, but I think

671
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 2: they're gonna need like Keon Coleman to show up. I

672
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 2: think they need random people to kind of show up

673
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 2: in this spot to make them move down the field,

674
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 2: because if they don't rely on the run and they

675
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 2: just go by the pass, I think they're gonna be

676
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 2: in a little bit of trouble.

677
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that that's smart. And the Chiefs pass

678
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 1: rush has not been great really for a while now,

679
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 1: so unless Chris has been saving it for this game,

680
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 1: maybe they don't get a lot of pressure on Josh

681
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 1: Allen and he's able to be the MVP that he

682
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 1: certainly can be. And I mean, quite frankly, for being fair,

683
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 1: Josh Allen's been the better quarterback than Patrick Mahomes in

684
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:14,959
Speaker 1: the last couple of years already. So I look at

685
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 1: this and I'm like, Okay, I prefer the Chiefs, but

686
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 1: I think I make this pretty close to a pickum,

687
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 1: so that would mean slightly value on the Bills. At

688
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 1: Chiefs minus two on the road. It's not enough for me,

689
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 1: Like I don't need to invest at a minus two,

690
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: a plus two, a money line, it's all it's too much.

691
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 1: It's cutting things too close when we know this is

692
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:36,959
Speaker 1: likely going to come down late. So I'm going back

693
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 1: to some angles I've played often here. So Chiefs this

694
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 1: season have been better early. The Bills are only two

695
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 1: and a five against the first half spread, but we

696
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 1: know Josh Allen's the second half King's at sixty seven

697
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 1: percent ATS career five and two ats this year in

698
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 1: the second half, So I was like, Okay, Chiefs first half,

699
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 1: Bill second half, Chiefs first half, Bill's money line. Oh

700
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 1: now I'm back to like having to pick a winner.

701
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:02,719
Speaker 1: I don't really want to pick a winner, to be honest,

702
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 1: I think there are other ways around it. And the

703
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:09,919
Speaker 1: Bills in nine games against Mahomes, they have led at

704
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:14,360
Speaker 1: some point all nine matchups. So these games are giving

705
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:16,799
Speaker 1: Buffalo a shot, and Buffalo has been a little bit

706
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 1: better in the regular season matchup as well. In fact,

707
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 1: both teams have led in eight of the nine matchups,

708
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,320
Speaker 1: so we're getting the lead going back and forth. Again,

709
00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 1: I'm not breaking news. Everyone has watched this game. We

710
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:30,839
Speaker 1: all know this is what happens. But we can bet

711
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 1: it at DraftKings under team props. There's a bet that

712
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 1: talks about comeback. So here's my first bet, Chiefs to

713
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 1: win from behind plus two fifteen at DraftKings. Now, look,

714
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 1: we all know when Mahomes is trailing in a game,

715
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:49,799
Speaker 1: you want the live money line. He still got a shot, right,

716
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,920
Speaker 1: but books price that away. They don't give us that anymore.

717
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 1: It's a minus number. Still, most of the time you

718
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 1: don't get plus two point fifteen Chiefs from behind unless

719
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 1: they're down like ten points or something like that. So

720
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 1: I'm gonna in advance give Josh Allen credit for taking

721
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 1: the lead at some point, maybe early, maybe later, and

722
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 1: then get the Chiefs comeback Mahomes. That's five wins against

723
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, all five from behind. So all five Mahomes

724
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 1: wins have hit this bet plus two fifteen comeback win.

725
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:24,279
Speaker 1: If you like Buffalo, you can bet the same bet

726
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 1: on Buffalo. Just get the right outs for it. You'll

727
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:28,759
Speaker 1: get a slightly better price. I think it's a good

728
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,359
Speaker 1: way to bet it. Or if you just think it's

729
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 1: close and you don't know who's gonna win, great. I

730
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 1: have an angle for you. Last six matchups, here's the

731
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 1: margin three nine, three, three, four and six. So the

732
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 1: six is overtime, so zero really, and the nine wal

733
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:49,720
Speaker 1: was a two point game until that crazy Josh Allen

734
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:51,879
Speaker 1: run when he ran through like eight dudes and scored

735
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 1: a touchdown with two minutes left, and that changed it

736
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 1: from two to nine. So basically it's a fuel goal

737
00:35:57,600 --> 00:36:01,720
Speaker 1: game or less except once in the last six times.

738
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 1: So okay, we can play that. Neither team to win

739
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,839
Speaker 1: by seven points or more plus one oh seven. Here's

740
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 1: how you play it. It's very easy. Same game. Parlay

741
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 1: chiefs plus six and a half, bills plus six and

742
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:17,600
Speaker 1: a half, smash them together. Neither team wins by seven

743
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 1: plus odds on it has hit five of the last

744
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 1: six matchups here and then one more similar here. You

745
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 1: know we're getting fireworks late. These teams always pull out

746
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:30,319
Speaker 1: all the stops in the fourth quarter. Both teams have

747
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 1: scored in eight of the nine to fourth quarters when

748
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 1: they play all but one playoff game, so I've played

749
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,839
Speaker 1: every time. Both teams to score in the fourth quarter,

750
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 1: that's a real bet you can make. It's minus one ninety's.

751
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 1: It's a high and number for me to play at

752
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:47,279
Speaker 1: minus one ninety, but I've seen it as high as

753
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 1: like minus three hundred to some books. I think it

754
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:51,640
Speaker 1: should be even longer than shorter. I never know which

755
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 1: is the way you say it, but it shouldn't be

756
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 1: that you can do that as the same game, partly

757
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 1: leg if you want at a lot of books, so

758
00:36:57,880 --> 00:36:59,560
Speaker 1: maybe you add that in if you don't like the

759
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 1: minus nine, to add it with some other stuff you like.

760
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think game wise. I'll get to a

761
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 1: props in a second. But those are the three angles.

762
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:12,160
Speaker 1: Chiefs to win from behind plus two fifteen, neither team

763
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 1: wins by seven or more plus one oh seven, and

764
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:18,360
Speaker 1: then both teams will score in the fourth quarter minus

765
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:19,879
Speaker 1: one ninety.

766
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess the only one I would just have

767
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 2: like a remark on would be both teams to score

768
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:26,839
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter, and the advantage I think you have.

769
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 2: Anyone who bets first quarters knows how aggravating it is

770
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 2: when the team at the end of the first quarter

771
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 2: doesn't care that it's the end of the first quarter,

772
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 2: and you do because you have your money on it. Well,

773
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 2: in this case, it's actually to your advantage because at

774
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 2: the end of the third quarter they're not going to

775
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,280
Speaker 2: care and hopefully they score some points at the beginning

776
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 2: of the fourth quarter, and now all of a sudden,

777
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:47,800
Speaker 2: you have a minus one ninety bet on like maybe

778
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,400
Speaker 2: the Chiefs or the Bills to score any points in

779
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 2: the quarter. Seems like a decent way to attack that.

780
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:55,399
Speaker 2: So that was the first thing that came to mind

781
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 2: from me. Let's keep rolling your on Chiefs Bills. We're

782
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:01,239
Speaker 2: gonna stay on this for a second. You have some props. Now,

783
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,760
Speaker 2: I'll just say this, every time you watch this game,

784
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 2: I feel like it's a playoff game, no matter when

785
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 2: it is in the season. When you get to playoff games,

786
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:12,920
Speaker 2: it's doing anything you can to get the first downs,

787
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 2: because I think that's how you get what you're about

788
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 2: to talk about is the third and whatever is they

789
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 2: need to get yards to go up and down the field,

790
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:23,799
Speaker 2: and this is how Josh gets there. So what are

791
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 2: you doing?

792
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, give me all the Josh Hellen rushing over there

793
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 1: is my go to bet on. Any big Bills game,

794
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:32,840
Speaker 1: and it is a good bet to make time after time.

795
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 1: But these are the same angles I'm playing because they

796
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:39,480
Speaker 1: keep on hitting the Bills. The numbers are really clear.

797
00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 1: The Bills save Allen's legs for the biggest games. Even

798
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 1: just this season, the Bills have had a prety soft schedule.

799
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:47,359
Speaker 1: Who are the two biggest games on a schedule? Week

800
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:50,319
Speaker 1: one against the Ravens before they went really bad, and

801
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 1: then the game against the Patriots. In those games, Allan

802
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:56,919
Speaker 1: averages eleven and a half rushing attempts five point two

803
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 1: in the other games, So he's literally running twice as

804
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 1: much in the games that they think are the big games.

805
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:05,279
Speaker 1: And look at the Chiefs over the years when Allen

806
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 1: plays the Chiefs, he averages ten point three rushing attempts

807
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:11,000
Speaker 1: in those games for forty five yards. Soave it even

808
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:13,800
Speaker 1: better in the playoffs because again now it's actually the

809
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:17,400
Speaker 1: playoffs and everything's on the line. But he's running more

810
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 1: in these games. And the Chiefs and Bills are top

811
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:23,360
Speaker 1: three in the league in rushing yards allowed the quarterbacks.

812
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 1: Only the Cowboys allow more rushing yards than either of

813
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:30,399
Speaker 1: these defenses. Two quarterbacks. Now, I'm not sure that's really

814
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 1: a thing. For the Bills. They played Lamar, they played

815
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:36,880
Speaker 1: fields and Tyrod I could get behind a Patrick Mahomes

816
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 1: rushing over He's hit his over six of eight. It's

817
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:42,080
Speaker 1: not been consistent, so I don't mind it. I like

818
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:45,359
Speaker 1: allan An City has allowed the most rushing attempts two

819
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 1: quarterbacks six point three a game. They have allowed at

820
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 1: least six attempts to a quarterback five times already. They'll

821
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 1: at least twenty seven yards five times three short touchdowns.

822
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 1: We know that that is Josh Allen. Okay, so what

823
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:03,600
Speaker 1: do we bet yards, attempts, touchdowns. It's me. We're betting

824
00:40:03,640 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 1: all three. So over thirty five and a half rushing yards.

825
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 1: That line is up a little bit from his usual

826
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 1: it's not up enough. His floor against Kansas City is

827
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:16,360
Speaker 1: thirty two yards. We need thirty six. So that's a

828
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 1: good bet fifty yards or more. He's hit in five

829
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 1: of nine Chiefs games. That is plus one to ninety

830
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:26,240
Speaker 1: should be a minus number. By his history rushing attempts

831
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 1: over seven and a half, it's plus one oh two.

832
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 1: He has at least over seven and a half. He's

833
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:33,440
Speaker 1: at least attempts all but once against the Chiefs and

834
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 1: no one missed by one, so the floor is where

835
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:39,360
Speaker 1: this line is being set. Even better, Honestly, my favorite

836
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:42,920
Speaker 1: Allen bet this week ten rushing attempts, so two extras

837
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:46,880
Speaker 1: plus three seventy five nine Chiefs games. He's hit ten

838
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:49,720
Speaker 1: rushing attempts in seven of the nine. That's a seventy

839
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:52,400
Speaker 1: eight percent hit rate. That should be like a minus

840
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 1: three seventy five. We're getting a plus three seventy five.

841
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 1: And lastly, when Allen runs eight times since the start

842
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 1: of last season, he gets a running touchdown and anytime

843
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 1: touchdown fifteen of nineteen times when he gets that many runs,

844
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 1: So Allen rushing touchdown again, anytime touchdown plus one to fifteen,

845
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:14,799
Speaker 1: and multiple tds over half of those games. That's eight

846
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:16,840
Speaker 1: to one. We know we're going to see points in

847
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:19,319
Speaker 1: this salon the totals in the fifties. I think that

848
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:21,839
Speaker 1: is in play as well. He hasn't quite had as

849
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 1: any time touchdowns against the Chiefs. But truly, I'm playing

850
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 1: all six of these. You will see them all in

851
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:29,880
Speaker 1: the app. I like the ten rushing Town's best. I

852
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 1: think they could all hit. I think we'll hit at

853
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 1: least a few of these. Don't get hurt Josh, please,

854
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:36,399
Speaker 1: because that's a good way to lose all of them.

855
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 1: But it should be a really fun game. I always

856
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:42,839
Speaker 1: want Josh rushing overs in a huge game like this.

857
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 1: This is a game I'll probably end up with like

858
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:46,800
Speaker 1: seven units of bets on because of all the stuff

859
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 1: we just gave out, But it's usually pretty consistent game

860
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:53,879
Speaker 1: to game, and so hopefully we get another classic here.

861
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:56,239
Speaker 2: Yeah. I was looking down at the DraftKings app trying

862
00:41:56,280 --> 00:41:58,359
Speaker 2: to figure out some rushing stuff. They don't have any

863
00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:01,640
Speaker 2: specials up yet, but I would looking at maybe Mahomes

864
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:05,160
Speaker 2: and Alan if they have anything fun combined. That might

865
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,480
Speaker 2: be something I might look at, because if you parlay

866
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:10,080
Speaker 2: forty for both, it's only four to one, and I

867
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 2: don't think the Mahomes angle on that has nearly the

868
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 2: opportunity that the Josh Allen angle does. Yeah, the other

869
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:20,279
Speaker 2: prop I was looking for, and I went across a

870
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:22,880
Speaker 2: bunch of books, including DraftKings, trying to find something of

871
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 2: this nature. But Josh has twenty plus rushing yards in

872
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 2: the second half of three straight versus Kansas City, so

873
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:32,720
Speaker 2: I felt like there is going to be an element

874
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 2: of him doing that need to get yardage need to

875
00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:39,040
Speaker 2: get first downs more in the second half. But I

876
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 2: can't find an angle yet there, but just something to

877
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:41,839
Speaker 2: keep on your back.

878
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 1: Could be a live playing too. You watch and Nick

879
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:47,439
Speaker 1: Giffen and are guys that do the bet what happens live,

880
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 1: and that that might be a one for them to

881
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:51,239
Speaker 1: play at halftime and get a live rushing over.

882
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:54,800
Speaker 2: Especially Yeah, if he's done nearly nothing in the first half,

883
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:59,359
Speaker 2: I still think he's scrambling and designed rush attempts are

884
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:02,200
Speaker 2: to come if it's not there already. So the other

885
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:04,520
Speaker 2: thing I think is just fascinating in this matchup is

886
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:07,439
Speaker 2: kind of the turnover stuff. I don't know if you've seen,

887
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 2: but the fumble luck on Kansas City side where they've

888
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:13,200
Speaker 2: fumbled not eight or nine times this year and haven't

889
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:17,280
Speaker 2: lost one yet is nearly incredible some of the things

890
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 2: that And if you look last year only ten lost

891
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 2: fumble at ten fumbles in total and lost only three

892
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:26,399
Speaker 2: of them. So to have nineteen fumbles over two years

893
00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 2: only lose three of them feels just absolutely ridiculous. So

894
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 2: that's one angle on it. And to me, when I

895
00:43:32,600 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 2: see these matchups, and I've looked back, Buffalo very rarely

896
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:39,280
Speaker 2: turns the ball over. In these games, usually it's Kansas

897
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:43,240
Speaker 2: City making the dumb mistake, and it's still coming back

898
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 2: to hurt Buffalo in the end somehow, some way. So

899
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:50,839
Speaker 2: just interesting there. I think turnovers tend to be an

900
00:43:50,880 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 2: odd thing, and in these games, especially when Kansas City's

901
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:57,759
Speaker 2: turned it over two plus times, Buffalo's four to ohs

902
00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:00,839
Speaker 2: straight up and against the spread. We will see how

903
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:03,400
Speaker 2: that goes. But something I was looking at, all right,

904
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 2: you ready to roll?

905
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:06,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, Let's let's roll through some lightning rounds here before

906
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:13,080
Speaker 1: I look ahead, see the funder lightning round the thunder.

907
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:18,560
Speaker 2: All right, start with the Bears and Bengals game. What's

908
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 2: the propy? Like?

909
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:21,360
Speaker 1: I like Deandres Swift here. I think this is a

910
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:23,799
Speaker 1: good rushing setup for him, So I'm gonna take his

911
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:27,280
Speaker 1: rushing yards over and an anytime touchdown. Look, the injury

912
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:29,759
Speaker 1: report is a mess. The Bears might be without their

913
00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 1: top three corners and their top four receivers, like they're

914
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 1: all questionable. Trey Hendrickson, I don't know if he's playing.

915
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco, don't know if he's playing. Even so, the

916
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:40,920
Speaker 1: over is getting steamed up from forty eight to like

917
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:44,320
Speaker 1: almost fifty three now because the Bengals defense is terrible.

918
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:47,280
Speaker 1: They're thirty second to DVA their bottom two run and pass,

919
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:50,439
Speaker 1: and we've talked with us on our Sunday night show.

920
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:53,919
Speaker 1: Bears run game has quietly broken out since the bye week.

921
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:57,480
Speaker 1: First three games of the season, Chicago's bottom three EPA

922
00:44:57,560 --> 00:45:00,919
Speaker 1: per play rushing last three games, they're top five since

923
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 1: the bye week yards for contact, just to start. I

924
00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:05,960
Speaker 1: think it's a scheme thing. I think they are learning

925
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:08,440
Speaker 1: the Ben Johnson effect. I think the line has gotten

926
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:10,879
Speaker 1: healthy as well, and I think it sets up well

927
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 1: for Dore Swift running back ones against the Bengals have

928
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:18,360
Speaker 1: just been crushing from Week three forward, garaging sixteen carries

929
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:20,800
Speaker 1: one hundred and four yards. They've had at least ninety

930
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 1: three yards and five of the six games they had

931
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 1: a touchdown in four of the six games, so touchdown

932
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:29,240
Speaker 1: minus one thirty five. I think that's worth it on Swift.

933
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:31,480
Speaker 1: He's scored in four straight as it is five to

934
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 1: seven on the season, and then over sixty and a

935
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:37,320
Speaker 1: half rushing yards did not hit last week against Baltimore

936
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:40,439
Speaker 1: because they're behind all game, but eight and one hundred

937
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 1: and twenty four yards in the two games out of

938
00:45:42,760 --> 00:45:45,000
Speaker 1: the bye week since then, if you want to sprinkle

939
00:45:45,040 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 1: a touch on one hundred yards plus four fifty, I

940
00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:50,400
Speaker 1: think that's worth a look. He is also on the

941
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:53,240
Speaker 1: injury port with a groin injury. I suspect he will play,

942
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:55,040
Speaker 1: but if you want to wait a little bit just

943
00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 1: to make sure that's clear, that would be okay. But

944
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:59,799
Speaker 1: swift rushing yards and touchdown, then it's a great spot

945
00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:00,960
Speaker 1: for against the Bengals.

946
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 2: It's nice that Ben Johnson's found his sonic and knuckles

947
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:06,440
Speaker 2: because manung guys as well as getting a bunch of

948
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 2: carries for them. In terms of Cincinnati though, one of

949
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 2: five teams allowing five yards per rush, which is crazy

950
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 2: in itself. Five teams allowing five yards per rush at

951
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:19,040
Speaker 2: this point this season, but Cincinnati twelve point eight percent

952
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:22,239
Speaker 2: stuff freight, which is at or before line of scrimmage,

953
00:46:22,239 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 2: worst mark in the NFL. They ain't stopping anybody, and

954
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:28,160
Speaker 2: especially on the ground, it's been really bad. So I

955
00:46:28,239 --> 00:46:32,279
Speaker 2: like the swift play. All right, Chargers and Titans, I

956
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 2: assume you are not taking the point spread, so what

957
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:36,719
Speaker 2: are you doing here now?

958
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:38,799
Speaker 1: I'm just going with old faithful here with is like

959
00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:40,440
Speaker 1: three four weeks in a row. We're just betting a

960
00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:42,799
Speaker 1: running back to score touchdown against the Titans. It's gonna

961
00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:45,640
Speaker 1: keep hitting, We're gonna keep playing it. Gimme Kimani Badal.

962
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 1: It's even odds. Are you kidding me? We're getting a

963
00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 1: running back against the Titans to score a touchdown. Literally

964
00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 1: eight for eight on the season, every Titans game, a

965
00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 1: running back has scored a touchdown. Kamani by Dallas since

966
00:46:58,200 --> 00:47:00,839
Speaker 1: taking the lead role. After all the in he has

967
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:04,360
Speaker 1: a touchdown and both Chargers wins in that stretch. I

968
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 1: don't really have much more to say here. It's just

969
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:08,960
Speaker 1: the same bet that we've been playing two touchdowns as

970
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:12,160
Speaker 1: five to one. Tennessee's allowed that three times already. If

971
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:15,759
Speaker 1: you want the JT special, Jonathan Taylor scored three touchdowns

972
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:18,640
Speaker 1: twice on the Titans already. Not only Kamani Vadeal is

973
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 1: quite Johnson Taylor, but that's twenty two to one if

974
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 1: you want to just touch that one, just in case

975
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 1: you got to touch them all with the Titans, because

976
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:28,040
Speaker 1: this team is terrible right now. They're thirty second in Dvoway,

977
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:30,759
Speaker 1: that's dead last, and they're kind of leaning into the tank.

978
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 1: They're trading away their top corner. Now this is going

979
00:47:33,080 --> 00:47:35,919
Speaker 1: to keep getting worse. Jeffrey Simmons is out. It's all

980
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:39,120
Speaker 1: bad with Tennessee. So Kimani Vidala, I think we slandered

981
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:41,440
Speaker 1: him a couple of weeks ago. Now we're Battenham. So

982
00:47:41,520 --> 00:47:42,799
Speaker 1: that's how it goes in the betting role.

983
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 2: Give me a touchdown, Yeah, Haskins still not practicing. I

984
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:49,240
Speaker 2: have with this. Only two players have gotten to carry

985
00:47:49,239 --> 00:47:52,400
Speaker 2: inside the five for the Chargers all season, Marion Batin

986
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:55,319
Speaker 2: with four and Kamani Vidal with three. That is it.

987
00:47:55,520 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 2: So with Hampton gone, Vidal is the man. Now. Last

988
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 2: week we got Jared Patterson and Naim Hines. But listen,

989
00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 2: that's not happening until it's thirty to nothing and Bedal's

990
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 2: already got two touchdowns. The thing, I will say, a

991
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:12,720
Speaker 2: second half touchdown for like Jared Patterson might be something

992
00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:15,640
Speaker 2: worth looking at her, some sort of blowout angle where

993
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 2: you're trying to profit late kind of like a bunch

994
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:20,719
Speaker 2: of us like Keaton Mitchell second half or any time

995
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:24,160
Speaker 2: our last touchdown, Certain things like that in those matchups.

996
00:48:24,640 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 2: Kind of an intrigueing of looking at it. Let's keep

997
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:33,400
Speaker 2: rolling here, Colts Steelers. This is honestly one of the

998
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:36,120
Speaker 2: more fascinating matchups of the week. If you weren't if

999
00:48:36,120 --> 00:48:40,280
Speaker 2: this wasn't a Buffalo Kansas City masterpiece on our schedule,

1000
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:42,240
Speaker 2: this would be one you would talk a lot about,

1001
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:44,600
Speaker 2: because what the Colts are doing going up against this

1002
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 2: terrible looking Pittsburgh defense right now, like they got to

1003
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:49,080
Speaker 2: figure out a way to get it right. But you

1004
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 2: don't think so based off this bet.

1005
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, Look, this really should be another raw Ra spot

1006
00:48:53,600 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 1: for me, and I think it probably would be betting

1007
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:57,520
Speaker 1: it if I hadn't just already been burned in the

1008
00:48:57,600 --> 00:49:00,200
Speaker 1: raw Ra spot Sunday night it did not go well. Well,

1009
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 1: you gotta have a short memory as it better and

1010
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:05,120
Speaker 1: sometimes keep going back to the well. I wouldn't be

1011
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:07,719
Speaker 1: afraid of that at times. But I think two with

1012
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:09,920
Speaker 1: some of these trends, and this hits all the trends.

1013
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 1: Tomlin at home, underdog awful loss, and Bears defense. This

1014
00:49:14,280 --> 00:49:17,840
Speaker 1: checks all the boxes. But sometimes these trends go to

1015
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 1: die when it's the end of a career, and I

1016
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:22,320
Speaker 1: might be the end for Tomlin and or Rearon Rodgers.

1017
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:25,000
Speaker 1: At this point, I'm gonna sit it out on the side.

1018
00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:27,600
Speaker 1: If I miss, I miss, We'll learn and we'll be

1019
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:30,319
Speaker 1: able to play again the next time. I'm really not

1020
00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:33,320
Speaker 1: super into the Colts yet either, so I kind of

1021
00:49:33,400 --> 00:49:35,880
Speaker 1: an just a little bit confused on the side. I

1022
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:38,759
Speaker 1: do love the tight end against Pittsburgh, though. We hit

1023
00:49:38,760 --> 00:49:41,719
Speaker 1: that last week with Tucker Kraft, our big smash on

1024
00:49:41,760 --> 00:49:45,759
Speaker 1: tight end's day seven three and two scores, So we're

1025
00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:47,960
Speaker 1: gonna run it back with another tight end that's a

1026
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:51,200
Speaker 1: lot like that. Give me Tyler Warren overs against the Steelers.

1027
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:55,279
Speaker 1: I want yards, I want touchdowns. So Steelers second most

1028
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 1: fantasy points to tight ends, second most touchdowns six already

1029
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:03,120
Speaker 1: most yards per game seventy nine allouted tight ends. I

1030
00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:05,840
Speaker 1: gave you the craft line Hunter Henry had eight for

1031
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 1: ninety and two scorers. Harold Fannin had seven for eighty one.

1032
00:50:09,600 --> 00:50:11,719
Speaker 1: We of course bet the wrong tight end in that game,

1033
00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 1: if I recall, but we're getting the right one this time.

1034
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 1: Tyler Warren, the rookie at least thirty eight yards every game,

1035
00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:21,280
Speaker 1: He's at at least four catches in fifty three yards

1036
00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:24,240
Speaker 1: six of the eight games. Fifty three yards is perfect.

1037
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:26,600
Speaker 1: We need over fifty two and a half, so give

1038
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:29,799
Speaker 1: me that usual Tyler Warren outcome. It's well below the

1039
00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:33,759
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh average, so we'll take that. One touchdown is plus

1040
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:37,360
Speaker 1: one forty five Warren scored for the last five games.

1041
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:40,279
Speaker 1: He runs sometimes too, They put him under center for

1042
00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:42,719
Speaker 1: the sneak, so we might steal one that way. I

1043
00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:46,040
Speaker 1: will say, be careful, Jalen Warren is on the wrong

1044
00:50:46,120 --> 00:50:48,239
Speaker 1: side in this one. We want Tyler Warren the tight

1045
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:50,080
Speaker 1: end for the Colt, So make sure you get the

1046
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 1: right Warren in your bet. And then if you want

1047
00:50:52,040 --> 00:50:55,600
Speaker 1: to combine them, fifty three yards and a touchdown plus

1048
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:57,680
Speaker 1: two to twenty five. And if you want to touch

1049
00:50:57,719 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 1: the two touchdowns, we just hit that on last week's

1050
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:02,160
Speaker 1: over a little bit of that Craft money eleven to

1051
00:51:02,239 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 1: one on two touchdowns for Tyler, not Jalen. Mister Warren.

1052
00:51:06,320 --> 00:51:09,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, Pittsburgh sucks versus tight ends twenty third and DVOA

1053
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:13,040
Speaker 2: and thirty first in yards per game, so I expect

1054
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:14,840
Speaker 2: Warren to kind of have a field day, especially with

1055
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:18,360
Speaker 2: Stikeen's you know, scheming. The other thing I thought was

1056
00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:23,760
Speaker 2: awesome Colts inside ten opportunities this year. So Jonathan Taylor

1057
00:51:23,760 --> 00:51:26,400
Speaker 2: with twenty four got it leads a team. Daniel Jones

1058
00:51:26,440 --> 00:51:29,759
Speaker 2: is eight, then Tyler Warren has six, four by receiving

1059
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:33,000
Speaker 2: two by rushing inside the ten. So they are really

1060
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:35,480
Speaker 2: doing the Dallas Goddard with him, and I think you're

1061
00:51:35,480 --> 00:51:36,879
Speaker 2: gonna see a little bit more of that. So there's

1062
00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 2: a lot of chances to get touchdowns and then they

1063
00:51:40,040 --> 00:51:42,919
Speaker 2: should find him downfield. So I like both of those.

1064
00:51:43,040 --> 00:51:46,600
Speaker 2: All right, we got two more here, Giants Niners? What

1065
00:51:46,640 --> 00:51:48,480
Speaker 2: the heck are you doing here with the walking Dead

1066
00:51:48,560 --> 00:51:51,480
Speaker 2: matchup this the I mean, honestly, the injury report on

1067
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:52,480
Speaker 2: this game is crazy.

1068
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:56,160
Speaker 1: It really is bizarre. It's like who knows who's playing

1069
00:51:56,200 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 1: for other team? Especially defensively, it's a mess. Hard to

1070
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:02,600
Speaker 1: believe these teams are that far apart right now. And

1071
00:52:02,640 --> 00:52:05,080
Speaker 1: so I think this kind of sets up similar to

1072
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 1: what we said about Texans Niners last week of I

1073
00:52:08,080 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 1: don't really know what's going to happen in this game,

1074
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:12,359
Speaker 1: but I do know that it doesn't necessarily mean it's

1075
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:14,640
Speaker 1: going to be a close game here. I think we

1076
00:52:14,719 --> 00:52:16,480
Speaker 1: kind of left some money on the table with the

1077
00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:19,280
Speaker 1: Niners game last week. We faded them hard. With the Alts,

1078
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:21,319
Speaker 1: I'm going back to the well, I'm gonna take some

1079
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:24,839
Speaker 1: Giants alts against the Niners again, same bet really as

1080
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 1: Texans last week. And let me be clear, I don't

1081
00:52:27,160 --> 00:52:29,480
Speaker 1: not like the Giants as much as I like the Texans,

1082
00:52:29,800 --> 00:52:32,560
Speaker 1: but I just think neither team here is particularly great.

1083
00:52:32,920 --> 00:52:35,240
Speaker 1: Three of the four units are bottom ten by DVAA.

1084
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 1: The only one that's not is Niners offense, but doesn't

1085
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:41,320
Speaker 1: look like we're getting brock Purty still, so I think

1086
00:52:41,600 --> 00:52:44,840
Speaker 1: mac Jones more likely is who we get passing offenses.

1087
00:52:44,920 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 1: The one thing neither team has really done above average.

1088
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:51,319
Speaker 1: Giants run defense awful, so bad, but it's not a

1089
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:54,080
Speaker 1: great matchup for the Niners. They're better running up the

1090
00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:56,600
Speaker 1: middle than outside, almost five yards to carry up the

1091
00:52:56,640 --> 00:53:00,880
Speaker 1: middle for McCaffrey three yards to carry outside. So that

1092
00:53:01,040 --> 00:53:03,440
Speaker 1: is a bad matchup for the Giants. And then the

1093
00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:05,920
Speaker 1: Niners are not a man gap scheme. They're more of

1094
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:09,040
Speaker 1: a zone scheme. The Giants are awful against man seven

1095
00:53:09,239 --> 00:53:12,640
Speaker 1: yards of carry fifty nine percent success rate, they're kind

1096
00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:15,040
Speaker 1: of fine against zone base four point three yards of

1097
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:17,880
Speaker 1: carry forty six percent success and that's more what the

1098
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:20,839
Speaker 1: Niners do. So I just think that the matchup here

1099
00:53:20,920 --> 00:53:22,840
Speaker 1: kind of says I think it could be close, and

1100
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:25,400
Speaker 1: if it's close, I don't know, man, I kind of

1101
00:53:25,560 --> 00:53:28,120
Speaker 1: don't know if I wouldn't mind Jackson Dart rather than

1102
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:30,800
Speaker 1: Mac Jones late in the game. I think we probably

1103
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:34,160
Speaker 1: are looking at something of a coin flip here. Niners defense.

1104
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:36,480
Speaker 1: We keep talking about it. They're cooked, man. They have

1105
00:53:36,520 --> 00:53:39,560
Speaker 1: injuries up and down the roster. Bosa's out, Warner is

1106
00:53:39,600 --> 00:53:42,160
Speaker 1: out now, a bunch of the replacements are out. They

1107
00:53:42,200 --> 00:53:44,640
Speaker 1: also were just on the field, like the entire first

1108
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:47,840
Speaker 1: half against the Texans seventy five plays. You have this

1109
00:53:47,920 --> 00:53:51,160
Speaker 1: in your column. Last two seasons, defenses that have been

1110
00:53:51,160 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 1: on the field that much the following week are thirteen

1111
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:57,239
Speaker 1: and twenty three straight up, thirty six percent straight up. Now,

1112
00:53:57,280 --> 00:53:59,879
Speaker 1: I do think there's some selection bias. Obviously, bad team

1113
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:02,160
Speaker 1: are gonna be on the field a lot, But I

1114
00:54:02,200 --> 00:54:04,319
Speaker 1: don't know. The forty nine ers might not not be

1115
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:07,040
Speaker 1: a bad team at this point. So I'm going back

1116
00:54:07,040 --> 00:54:10,120
Speaker 1: to the Houston be I think often we see kind

1117
00:54:10,120 --> 00:54:12,440
Speaker 1: of a toss up line and we're like, oh, okay, so

1118
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:15,560
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a close game. Well, not necessarily. Here's

1119
00:54:15,600 --> 00:54:18,279
Speaker 1: a crazy stat. Last decade, there's been one hundred and

1120
00:54:18,320 --> 00:54:21,120
Speaker 1: twenty seven times that a home underdog of under three

1121
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:24,080
Speaker 1: points one outright, so that hopefully is the Giants here.

1122
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:27,439
Speaker 1: Seventy seven of those times, sixty one percent of the time,

1123
00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:30,560
Speaker 1: that team won by at least seven points. So just

1124
00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:33,360
Speaker 1: because it's a close spread does not mean it's a

1125
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:36,680
Speaker 1: close game. Six of the last ten Giants wins are

1126
00:54:36,680 --> 00:54:39,560
Speaker 1: by seven or more, half by double digits, and admittedly

1127
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:42,480
Speaker 1: that's across like three seasons because the Giants suck. But

1128
00:54:42,760 --> 00:54:46,720
Speaker 1: Niners already said last week last calendar year. Now seven

1129
00:54:46,760 --> 00:54:49,680
Speaker 1: of their last eleven losses are by double digits, average

1130
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:52,880
Speaker 1: margin of defeat twelve point seven. They just lost by

1131
00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:56,440
Speaker 1: double digit last week. So back to the Well, here's

1132
00:54:56,480 --> 00:54:59,960
Speaker 1: the two I'm playing Giants minus four and a half

1133
00:55:00,120 --> 00:55:02,840
Speaker 1: plus two thirty. It's a weird number. Why four and

1134
00:55:02,840 --> 00:55:04,600
Speaker 1: a half. Well, five and a half and six and

1135
00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:06,759
Speaker 1: a half are like almost the same price, but five

1136
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:08,800
Speaker 1: and six are kind of a little bit key numbers.

1137
00:55:08,840 --> 00:55:11,520
Speaker 1: So sure, let's let's take the easier way out this time.

1138
00:55:12,040 --> 00:55:14,239
Speaker 1: Then minus nine and a half, so double digit win

1139
00:55:14,600 --> 00:55:18,000
Speaker 1: plus four fifty. I think the nine Ers win. Frankly,

1140
00:55:18,080 --> 00:55:20,719
Speaker 1: I think the Niners are slightly better, but I don't

1141
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:23,320
Speaker 1: really think we've hit rock bottom on San Francisco and

1142
00:55:23,719 --> 00:55:27,000
Speaker 1: losing to the Giants by double digits. That might be it,

1143
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:28,959
Speaker 1: and I want a part of it if we get there,

1144
00:55:29,000 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 1: So Giants to win by five or ten points at least,

1145
00:55:32,760 --> 00:55:33,520
Speaker 1: that's the bet.

1146
00:55:33,760 --> 00:55:35,919
Speaker 2: Just because the spread is tight doesn't mean the game

1147
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:40,160
Speaker 2: is printed. All right, Let's go to our next game here,

1148
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:45,960
Speaker 2: Panthers and Packers. Now, this one's interesting because I kind

1149
00:55:45,960 --> 00:55:48,360
Speaker 2: of feel like it is boom or bust, but you

1150
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 2: are taking it to the nth degree. So what are

1151
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:53,160
Speaker 2: you doing here with Carolina Green Bay.

1152
00:55:53,760 --> 00:55:55,520
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take a shot. I'm taking a shot on

1153
00:55:55,560 --> 00:55:58,439
Speaker 1: the Panthers money line. It's plus seven to fifty. It's

1154
00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:00,960
Speaker 1: it's our longest shot of the pot cast wrapping up

1155
00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:03,160
Speaker 1: here on paper. Not a lot of reasons this should

1156
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:05,200
Speaker 1: be closed. I'm still on the Packers. I still think

1157
00:56:05,239 --> 00:56:07,720
Speaker 1: this is maybe the most complete team in the NFC.

1158
00:56:07,800 --> 00:56:10,160
Speaker 1: Is certainly a top ceiling if they get there. But

1159
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:12,520
Speaker 1: we've expressed a lot of doubts about the Packers. They

1160
00:56:12,520 --> 00:56:15,279
Speaker 1: play very slow, they allow teams to stay in the game.

1161
00:56:15,840 --> 00:56:18,320
Speaker 1: This looks like the biggest weather game of the weekend.

1162
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:21,120
Speaker 1: Seventeen mill an hour wind. I think that's going to

1163
00:56:21,200 --> 00:56:23,080
Speaker 1: lean in to what I already thought might be a

1164
00:56:23,120 --> 00:56:26,080
Speaker 1: little bit of tricky spot. Both of these teams want

1165
00:56:26,080 --> 00:56:28,960
Speaker 1: to run the ball a lot. That's fine if you're

1166
00:56:29,040 --> 00:56:32,200
Speaker 1: the underdog. Great, Let's both trade runs, let's both trade

1167
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:35,360
Speaker 1: body blows. Let the game stay close down to the finish,

1168
00:56:35,400 --> 00:56:37,520
Speaker 1: and then we'll see. We'll see what happens. I don't

1169
00:56:37,520 --> 00:56:40,759
Speaker 1: really want Bryce Young against Jordan Love. I'd truly rather

1170
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:42,799
Speaker 1: have Bryce Young and Andy Dalton. Just to be clear

1171
00:56:42,840 --> 00:56:45,520
Speaker 1: on that, don't want any Dolton at all. Put him

1172
00:56:45,520 --> 00:56:48,279
Speaker 1: back in the mouth balls he's done. But if it's

1173
00:56:48,320 --> 00:56:52,120
Speaker 1: gonna be close late, we should have a chance. Carolina's

1174
00:56:52,200 --> 00:56:56,279
Speaker 1: run defense got obliterated last week, but before that they

1175
00:56:56,280 --> 00:56:59,200
Speaker 1: were top three and a lot of metrics, So assuming

1176
00:56:59,280 --> 00:57:03,960
Speaker 1: last week was not the usual, maybe they hang Packers.

1177
00:57:04,040 --> 00:57:08,879
Speaker 1: Run defense has been bad most years until recently. Ricodowdo

1178
00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:10,719
Speaker 1: kind of got the vot of confidence this week. The

1179
00:57:10,760 --> 00:57:14,440
Speaker 1: Panthers have run pretty well. Just to me is a

1180
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 1: good Bilo spot. Carolina just had the blowout loss. There's

1181
00:57:17,720 --> 00:57:21,000
Speaker 1: a lot of trends that would say, okay, ats for Carolina.

1182
00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:24,560
Speaker 1: I don't really want a Carolina plus thirteen and a half.

1183
00:57:24,600 --> 00:57:27,000
Speaker 1: Like I know that that's the right side here, probably,

1184
00:57:27,520 --> 00:57:31,320
Speaker 1: but I can't get excited about all Right, the Panthers

1185
00:57:31,360 --> 00:57:33,960
Speaker 1: are down seventeen. Bryce has the ball. Let's see if

1186
00:57:34,000 --> 00:57:36,080
Speaker 1: we get our cover. I don't, I don't. I don't

1187
00:57:36,080 --> 00:57:39,080
Speaker 1: want that. So what I do want is this. The

1188
00:57:39,120 --> 00:57:41,440
Speaker 1: Packers have yet to win by more than ten points.

1189
00:57:41,640 --> 00:57:44,680
Speaker 1: Even when they dominate, they're not putting teams away. So

1190
00:57:44,760 --> 00:57:48,200
Speaker 1: if it's a single score game, we got a shot,

1191
00:57:48,240 --> 00:57:50,360
Speaker 1: and I want to shot at the big win. So

1192
00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:54,200
Speaker 1: I make this line more like eleven. It's thirteen and

1193
00:57:54,200 --> 00:57:56,439
Speaker 1: a half. That doesn't seem like much, but with our

1194
00:57:56,600 --> 00:58:00,800
Speaker 1: calculator turning spread into money line, that means this should

1195
00:58:00,840 --> 00:58:02,919
Speaker 1: be like a plus four hundred four to twenty five.

1196
00:58:02,960 --> 00:58:06,080
Speaker 1: We're getting plus seven to fifty. If I'm playing a

1197
00:58:06,080 --> 00:58:09,720
Speaker 1: long shot like this, and may I remind you Dolphins

1198
00:58:09,960 --> 00:58:12,320
Speaker 1: Jets last week we just hit two of these guys.

1199
00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:15,320
Speaker 1: I want to make it worth our while plus seven

1200
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:18,760
Speaker 1: to fifty Panthers. It's my big upset pick up the week.

1201
00:58:18,880 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 1: If it happens, I would steer you away from this one.

1202
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:25,160
Speaker 1: In Survivor, I think there are other better matchups out there,

1203
00:58:25,280 --> 00:58:28,720
Speaker 1: like Rams or others. It's just not a great matchup

1204
00:58:28,720 --> 00:58:31,400
Speaker 1: for the Packers. Maybe it's forty to nine and that's

1205
00:58:31,440 --> 00:58:33,880
Speaker 1: it and it's whatever. But I think Carolina has a

1206
00:58:33,920 --> 00:58:35,640
Speaker 1: real script where they could win this one.

1207
00:58:35,920 --> 00:58:37,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, to be fair, we just haven't seen it yet.

1208
00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:40,280
Speaker 2: Since the calendar turned to twenty twenty five, Packers one

1209
00:58:40,360 --> 00:58:42,760
Speaker 2: favorite of seven points or more. Four times they're zero

1210
00:58:42,760 --> 00:58:45,400
Speaker 2: and four against the spread. I'll give you one more.

1211
00:58:46,040 --> 00:58:48,040
Speaker 2: And this one where I thought was really interesting because

1212
00:58:48,280 --> 00:58:50,840
Speaker 2: we talked about this on the Favorites earlier today. But

1213
00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:54,680
Speaker 2: Packers have the Eagles on Monday Night Football the week after.

1214
00:58:54,920 --> 00:58:58,120
Speaker 2: So last twenty years, it's late into the season. Team

1215
00:58:58,160 --> 00:59:01,000
Speaker 2: with a seventy percent win percentagers of the digit favorite,

1216
00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:05,200
Speaker 2: with a seventy plus one percentage on deck, next game

1217
00:59:05,360 --> 00:59:08,560
Speaker 2: on it on deck, eighty three percent straight up under suit,

1218
00:59:08,600 --> 00:59:12,360
Speaker 2: you're a double digit favorite butt against the spread. I

1219
00:59:12,400 --> 00:59:14,800
Speaker 2: found that kind of interesting. That's about a forty percent

1220
00:59:14,880 --> 00:59:18,320
Speaker 2: delta between win and cover. So I mean, listen, if

1221
00:59:18,320 --> 00:59:20,520
Speaker 2: you're gonna win the game, you're also going to cover

1222
00:59:20,560 --> 00:59:22,760
Speaker 2: the game. So at least you gotta keep this one

1223
00:59:22,920 --> 00:59:26,960
Speaker 2: close with Carolina. So I get it, but we will

1224
00:59:27,000 --> 00:59:29,320
Speaker 2: see what happens. All right, let's get to the look

1225
00:59:29,320 --> 00:59:31,680
Speaker 2: ahead here, So look ahead for week ten.

1226
00:59:33,640 --> 00:59:36,720
Speaker 1: Let's talk ahead, skim a shot, how about next week?

1227
00:59:37,160 --> 00:59:41,880
Speaker 2: Back out my mind sat look up my mind said,

1228
00:59:43,600 --> 00:59:46,160
Speaker 2: you're looking at Commander's lions. I think I know what

1229
00:59:46,280 --> 00:59:47,040
Speaker 2: side you're taking.

1230
00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:49,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not commanders, I'll tell you that much. This

1231
00:59:49,640 --> 00:59:52,360
Speaker 1: is very similar to the line that we took last week.

1232
00:59:52,440 --> 00:59:55,120
Speaker 1: So we took Seahawks minus two and a half at

1233
00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:59,120
Speaker 1: the Commanders. Here we are Lions minus three at the Commanders.

1234
00:59:59,120 --> 01:00:02,600
Speaker 1: It's a very similar pick. And look, the Seahawks are

1235
01:00:02,640 --> 01:00:04,520
Speaker 1: like three three and a half. Now, the Lion did

1236
01:00:04,560 --> 01:00:06,680
Speaker 1: move past the key number like we expected, so we

1237
01:00:06,760 --> 01:00:09,440
Speaker 1: got the right side of our look ahead. But that

1238
01:00:09,560 --> 01:00:12,120
Speaker 1: makes this an easy pick. Why in the world are

1239
01:00:12,240 --> 01:00:15,400
Speaker 1: Lions minus three if Seahawks are minus three and a half,

1240
01:00:15,400 --> 01:00:19,560
Speaker 1: we're rating the Lions lower than the Seahawks. Nobody's higher

1241
01:00:19,560 --> 01:00:22,840
Speaker 1: on Seattle than me. But that's ludicrous. The Lions should

1242
01:00:22,840 --> 01:00:25,840
Speaker 1: not be rated below the Seahawks right now. And in

1243
01:00:25,880 --> 01:00:29,080
Speaker 1: this matchup, mclaurin's hurt again. He's probably not gonna play

1244
01:00:29,400 --> 01:00:32,400
Speaker 1: Laramie Tunsel the best Lineman. He's got a hamstring injury.

1245
01:00:32,440 --> 01:00:34,919
Speaker 1: We don't know what's up with him. We think Jane

1246
01:00:35,000 --> 01:00:38,200
Speaker 1: Daniels is healthy, but we've seen Daniels come back play

1247
01:00:38,240 --> 01:00:40,280
Speaker 1: and get hurt again. So who knows a week from

1248
01:00:40,280 --> 01:00:43,040
Speaker 1: now against the Lions or even how healthy he will be.

1249
01:00:43,720 --> 01:00:46,120
Speaker 1: There is a shot, especially if we're right about our

1250
01:00:46,160 --> 01:00:49,760
Speaker 1: Seattle pick, that Washington loses Sunday night. We're all watching

1251
01:00:50,120 --> 01:00:51,760
Speaker 1: and now they're on a four game losing streak and

1252
01:00:51,760 --> 01:00:53,520
Speaker 1: they're in free fall, and we are not getting anything

1253
01:00:53,520 --> 01:00:56,720
Speaker 1: close the Lions minus three. And here's the other thing

1254
01:00:56,760 --> 01:00:59,400
Speaker 1: that I love about this spot. Remember the last time

1255
01:00:59,440 --> 01:01:03,400
Speaker 1: the Lions to Washington, because Dan Campbell does it ended

1256
01:01:03,400 --> 01:01:07,760
Speaker 1: the season last year forty five thirty one. They got embarrassed,

1257
01:01:08,120 --> 01:01:12,080
Speaker 1: and nobody cares more about that than Dan Campbell and

1258
01:01:12,120 --> 01:01:14,920
Speaker 1: his coaching staff. Remember the last time we saw this

1259
01:01:15,440 --> 01:01:17,920
Speaker 1: the Lions played late in the season against the Cowboys

1260
01:01:18,280 --> 01:01:20,880
Speaker 1: twenty to nineteen. They lost. They had the Dan Skipper

1261
01:01:21,000 --> 01:01:23,600
Speaker 1: sub they tried to throw them the ball, they got

1262
01:01:23,600 --> 01:01:26,800
Speaker 1: waved off by the refs. They were pissed. They came

1263
01:01:26,840 --> 01:01:30,680
Speaker 1: back last season forty seven to nine in Dallas. They

1264
01:01:30,760 --> 01:01:34,320
Speaker 1: demolished them. The revenge spot is huge with this team.

1265
01:01:34,880 --> 01:01:38,680
Speaker 1: I promise you the Lion's been waiting to play Washington

1266
01:01:38,880 --> 01:01:42,000
Speaker 1: all season long. Minus three is a crazy line. I

1267
01:01:42,040 --> 01:01:43,240
Speaker 1: love Detroit in the spot.

1268
01:01:44,160 --> 01:01:46,680
Speaker 2: This is my favorite look ahead spot we've ever done.

1269
01:01:46,760 --> 01:01:49,920
Speaker 2: The narrative look ahead spot. Well done by yourself, because

1270
01:01:50,120 --> 01:01:52,640
Speaker 2: I honestly didn't even think about that, But you're completely correct.

1271
01:01:53,280 --> 01:01:55,360
Speaker 2: He is going to do everything in his power, and

1272
01:01:55,360 --> 01:01:58,040
Speaker 2: that is Dan Campbell to make sure Washington pays the

1273
01:01:58,080 --> 01:02:01,320
Speaker 2: other really really good angle on this is everything you

1274
01:02:01,400 --> 01:02:04,520
Speaker 2: just said about beating Minnesota as well, like anything they

1275
01:02:04,520 --> 01:02:07,200
Speaker 2: do in Minnesota this week is just going to impact

1276
01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:10,160
Speaker 2: this line, So I like where your head's at all, right,

1277
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Speaker 2: that'll do it. Here on the Actionary Podcast for our

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Speaker 2: weekend nine Best Bets episode presented by draft Kicks. If

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Speaker 2: to actioneer dot com slash bet now. We will be

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Speaker 2: back Sunday night for our NFL recap show that'll be

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Speaker 2: live on action O twtubo page shortly after Sunday night

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Speaker 2: football between the Seahawks and Commanders, and we will get

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Speaker 2: you ready for Cardinals and Cowboys the next night with

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Speaker 2: a better too. So thank you for listening, enjoy us, Slade,

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Speaker 2: good look with all your best this week and everyone.

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Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler