WEBVTT - Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Is Setting Up A Midterm DISASTER For Republicans + America Needs To Side With Democracy In Iran 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:02.360 This episode of the Chuck Todcast is brought to you 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.240 by Wild Grain. Wild Grain is the first bake from 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:11.280 frozen subscription box for sour dough breads, arteisonal pastries, and 0:00:11.320 --> 0:00:14.800 fresh pastas, plus all the items conveniently baked in twenty 0:00:14.800 --> 0:00:18.759 five minutes or less. Unlike many store brought options, Wild 0:00:18.840 --> 0:00:21.880 Grain uses some simple ingredients you can pronounce and a 0:00:22.040 --> 0:00:25.480 slow fermentation process that can be a lot easier on 0:00:25.520 --> 0:00:28.080 your belly, little gut health there right, and richer in 0:00:28.200 --> 0:00:32.600 nutrients antioxidants. There's also no preservatives and no shortcuts. The 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:35.800 Wild Grain boxes are fully customizable. 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The NFL is working on the idea of 0:01:59.720 --> 0:02:03.560 another week to the season so that they officially take 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:07.040 over President's Day weekend for the super Bowl. And you 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:09.680 can see where it goes. Super Bowl Sunday we get 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:16.040 President's Day off, because what's more American than that. The 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:20.399 super Bowl itself, well, it kind of, it kind of went. 0:02:20.520 --> 0:02:23.000 It kind of went. The conventional wisdom I mean, when 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:26.280 a sort of amateur like me is out there on 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:28.040 the record saying I think this game's going to be 0:02:28.040 --> 0:02:30.680 like twenty to six. Well, you know, I missed a 0:02:30.680 --> 0:02:32.280 few points here or there, but it kind of went 0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:34.720 exactly how we thought that Seattle would. Just so what 0:02:34.760 --> 0:02:38.079 they've done all year. They kind of grind teams down 0:02:38.639 --> 0:02:41.880 and you're like, oh my god, we can't catch up 0:02:42.080 --> 0:02:46.240 when you're playing them, They're just there is a relentlessness there. 0:02:46.720 --> 0:02:48.720 I'll say this, I got to give credit to the 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:53.320 Pats defense. They Seattle could have blown this game open 0:02:53.360 --> 0:02:56.920 in the first half, and they made it. You know, 0:02:57.040 --> 0:03:00.320 Darnald missed a couple of throws by that much, a 0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:03.880 couple of great plays by the defensive backfield at Christian Gonzales. 0:03:04.600 --> 0:03:08.799 That was impressive. But at the end of the day, man, 0:03:09.400 --> 0:03:13.320 you cannot The Patriots tried to do something that no 0:03:13.400 --> 0:03:15.280 team had ever done in a Super Bowl. They try 0:03:15.320 --> 0:03:17.280 to win a Super Bowl without a left side of 0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:21.720 their offensive line. I know they were actual physical human beings. 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:25.399 Perhaps I think they were. I wasn't live at the game, 0:03:25.440 --> 0:03:28.320 but if you told me that was just a green 0:03:28.400 --> 0:03:31.800 screen for their left tackle, because my god, poor Drake 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:37.040 May I mean running for his life. It is what 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:41.080 it is. That was the fear going into this game. 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:43.840 Is that's what we'd expect, but that's what it was. 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:47.280 But come on, for us football fans are not Patriots fans. 0:03:48.000 --> 0:03:50.040 Did we really want to see them just make it 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:52.760 this easy to get back and win and winning super bowls? 0:03:52.760 --> 0:03:55.840 That it couldn't be this easy. They should be happy 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:58.880 they're going to be contenders again when they get an 0:03:58.880 --> 0:04:02.720 offensive line. That's a great defense. It's a well coached team. 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:04.960 But you got to give your hats off to the 0:04:05.000 --> 0:04:09.600 Seattle defense. Unbelievable. Kenneth Walker was unbelievable. Before those last 0:04:09.600 --> 0:04:13.400 couple of touchdown passes, Kenneth Walker was looking like the 0:04:13.520 --> 0:04:17.760 MVP in that front. But look, Sam Donald, he made 0:04:17.760 --> 0:04:20.320 a few throws that you're like, you know, when you're 0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:23.599 a Sam Donald fan, I didn't. I imagine there's a 0:04:23.640 --> 0:04:26.880 lot of no, no, no, no, no yes when it comes 0:04:26.880 --> 0:04:30.840 to Donald, but there it is. Kudos to the Seahawks, 0:04:32.839 --> 0:04:36.560 it was. This is one of those years where it 0:04:36.640 --> 0:04:39.320 felt like the NFC was just that much better and 0:04:39.360 --> 0:04:44.440 the Super Bowl produced kind of exactly how the season went. 0:04:45.000 --> 0:04:48.279 The AFC was weaker and a bit of a jumbled mess. 0:04:48.320 --> 0:04:52.159 The NFC was stronger with Seattle constantly on top, and 0:04:52.440 --> 0:04:54.760 we got the scroll. They got a few things on 0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:58.520 the non football playing side. First of all, look love 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:02.400 Mike Turrico, consider him a friend. He had one of 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:05.240 my favorite calls of the night when he talked about 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:08.159 the rocket scientist jumping onto the field. I just thought 0:05:08.160 --> 0:05:11.640 that was a I love that. That's what he That's 0:05:11.680 --> 0:05:14.360 how he referred to the guy that whatever happened on 0:05:14.400 --> 0:05:16.800 the field. Obviously, those of us not there live don't 0:05:16.800 --> 0:05:21.479 know what the interruption was, but I liked the shout 0:05:21.480 --> 0:05:25.479 out to rocket scientists, bad bunny. The Super Bowl party, 0:05:25.480 --> 0:05:28.480 I was at everybody's like, well, that was interesting, and 0:05:29.080 --> 0:05:30.800 as somebody who grew up in Miami, it was very 0:05:30.800 --> 0:05:34.680 familiar to me. I enjoyed sort of the tour of 0:05:34.960 --> 0:05:39.400 Latin culture and the Puerto Rican culture, you know, going 0:05:39.440 --> 0:05:42.440 through the dominoes and the weddings and the cantinnaras and 0:05:42.480 --> 0:05:45.160 all that stuff. I thought that was a nice little touch. 0:05:45.240 --> 0:05:49.599 But I have no doubt that there'll be a lot 0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:54.320 of dumb social media takes on this. But if you're 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:57.520 the NFL, you were there to expand your fan base, 0:05:58.279 --> 0:06:02.000 to continue this outreach to Latin America, and Bad Bunny 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:04.719 did the job. I think that the NFL was hoping 0:06:04.720 --> 0:06:09.200 that he would do on that front. I'm sure if 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:11.080 you're trying to find out how popular it was, my 0:06:11.120 --> 0:06:13.240 guess is, if you like Trump, you didn't like Bad Money, 0:06:13.240 --> 0:06:14.839 And if you didn't like Trump, you said, wow, that 0:06:14.920 --> 0:06:20.120 was terrific. You know, not everybody's a Bad Bunny fan, 0:06:20.200 --> 0:06:23.359 but I get what he was trying to do. I 0:06:23.360 --> 0:06:27.400 thought it was interesting, I thought it was unique, and 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:33.000 I thought it was worth watching. On that the commercials, 0:06:33.839 --> 0:06:37.120 I'm just creeped out by the d aging. I'm sorry 0:06:37.160 --> 0:06:41.360 that weird Eccinity ad with Jurassic Park and all. I'd 0:06:41.480 --> 0:06:44.719 rather see all those actors as they are now, give 0:06:44.760 --> 0:06:46.120 them to me with all their gray hair. It might 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:50.359 even be funnier if they did that. But all of 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:52.479 the d aging, and it was in a few ads. 0:06:52.480 --> 0:06:55.960 It wasn't just that one. It was oh, the Goodwill Hunt, 0:06:56.000 --> 0:07:01.680 the dunkin Donuts ad with everybody looking d aged except 0:07:01.720 --> 0:07:05.360 for Brady, which I guess was the Brady was always 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:10.720 sort of Benjamin Button. Anyway, Again, I know all these guys, 0:07:10.800 --> 0:07:13.600 have these all these great new tools to mess with 0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:16.720 thanks to AI, thanks to d aging, but eh, a 0:07:16.720 --> 0:07:22.440 little overused. I'm a little creeped out about it. I'm intrigued. 0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:23.560 I didn't know there was going to be a Once 0:07:23.600 --> 0:07:26.840 upon a Time in Hollywood sequel, so call me intrigued 0:07:26.880 --> 0:07:29.200 on that. So thank you super Bowl commercial for that. 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:33.720 And finally, I guess this was I said it would 0:07:33.760 --> 0:07:35.720 be the year of the AI ad. There were certainly 0:07:35.760 --> 0:07:45.120 AI companies and teases and and different AI agents being advertised. 0:07:45.320 --> 0:07:47.360 It felt like, my guess is just like what we 0:07:47.400 --> 0:07:50.920 saw during the Crypto super Bowl a couple of years ago, 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:53.840 and we had our Internet super Bowl way back when 0:07:55.680 --> 0:07:59.360 half of those AI agents that advertised in this super 0:07:59.360 --> 0:08:02.080 Bowl will not be in existence in what three years? 0:08:02.720 --> 0:08:04.760 What should we make the over under that two and 0:08:04.760 --> 0:08:08.320 a half years that some of these companies will no 0:08:08.400 --> 0:08:13.040 longer be be relevant or be ever heard of, or 0:08:13.200 --> 0:08:15.080 some of these things the only time we'll ever hear 0:08:15.120 --> 0:08:18.560 from them might actually be the Super Bowl ad you 0:08:18.600 --> 0:08:24.720 watched last night. But all in all, I'm sad that 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:27.400 football season's over. I am a huge football fan. I 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:30.600 love it, but hey, let's turn to basketball. We got 0:08:30.640 --> 0:08:33.200 the All Star weekend. Next weekend, we got the best 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:37.200 part of college basketball coming up, so I know how 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:38.960 I'm going to be spending a lot of my evenings 0:08:39.080 --> 0:08:42.120 over the next over the next few weeks. And as 0:08:42.160 --> 0:08:45.720 I told you before, I love the Olympics. So there. 0:08:45.760 --> 0:08:49.160 So look, we got through the Super Bowl without two 0:08:49.360 --> 0:08:53.080 without any political disruption, which is kind of nice. And 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:55.760 I barely made it through the Super Bowl without one 0:08:56.040 --> 0:08:59.520 Cali disruption from my dog. All right, so let's get 0:08:59.520 --> 0:09:02.199 focused on the show ahead. Let me give you a 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:05.760 quick little table of contents. I've got a few things 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:09.600 to say about the about the weekend that was with 0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:16.480 Donald Trump, both the European essentially the Europeans at the 0:09:16.520 --> 0:09:22.720 Olympics expressing their expressing their opinion about Team USA and 0:09:22.760 --> 0:09:25.680 how humiliating that was for US Americans watching on TV 0:09:25.840 --> 0:09:28.800 and live. We'll get to that. We've got the Donald 0:09:28.800 --> 0:09:32.840 Trump racist meme. And what's interesting about that story is, 0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:34.559 like with a lot of things with Donald Trump, I 0:09:35.320 --> 0:09:38.480 don't know how we're surprised or shocked that he does 0:09:38.559 --> 0:09:42.040 something that's racist, that he either shares a post that's 0:09:42.160 --> 0:09:48.280 racist or implies something that is racist. And you know, 0:09:48.880 --> 0:09:51.600 there's always this question, is he you know, he always 0:09:51.600 --> 0:09:53.839 wants to say I'm the least racist person. But as 0:09:53.960 --> 0:09:56.080 there was a great debate line back in twenty eighteen, 0:09:56.120 --> 0:09:58.880 I think it's Andrew Gillham to Ronda Santis, I don't 0:09:58.880 --> 0:10:00.800 know if you're racist, but a lot of racist people 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:06.560 think you're racist. The point is this consistency of Donald 0:10:06.559 --> 0:10:10.839 Trump that whenever sort of there's a line, he's willing 0:10:10.880 --> 0:10:13.959 to cross it and be on the side of those 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:16.240 that would be accused of being racist. But we're going 0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:18.400 to get to that in a minute. I also have 0:10:18.559 --> 0:10:22.439 the most underreported story last week that is is a 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:27.320 huge consequence to campaign twenty twenty six and why perhaps 0:10:28.480 --> 0:10:32.480 we can call the election right now. We can, at 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:34.520 least on the House side, that we can call it 0:10:34.640 --> 0:10:39.839 right now. I will explain statistically why that is later 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:47.080 in this episode, but let's get started with the fallout 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:50.920 from Donald Trump and the racist meme attacking the Obamas, 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:55.200 because you know, whenever we have these incidents with him, 0:10:56.480 --> 0:10:59.160 because these are very frequent, right, you can go down 0:10:59.200 --> 0:11:01.280 the litany of lists. We can go back all the 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:04.080 way to twenty fifteen. Frankly, with Donald Trump, you can 0:11:04.080 --> 0:11:05.800 go all the way back to the eighties in the 0:11:05.840 --> 0:11:07.960 Central Park five. Actually, if you want, you can go. 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:11.199 When it comes to race and the questions of racism, 0:11:11.200 --> 0:11:12.800 you go all the way back to the early seventies 0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:14.360 when he had to go hire a lawyer named Roy 0:11:14.400 --> 0:11:20.320 Cone because the Nixon government, the Nixon led Justice Department, 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:29.120 was investigating his father's firm, essentially for bias in how 0:11:29.160 --> 0:11:34.160 they rented and sold houses and apartments in suburban New 0:11:34.240 --> 0:11:38.679 York City. So the point is the accusation of racism. 0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:42.720 The question about whether he was racially tolerant or not, 0:11:42.840 --> 0:11:45.160 or racially accepting or not, has been hovering over Donald 0:11:45.160 --> 0:11:49.520 Trump for his entire adult life. He leans sometimes, it 0:11:49.600 --> 0:11:54.360 seems as if he leans into racist tropes almost as 0:11:54.400 --> 0:11:56.520 a way to quote. Maybe he thinks he's owning the 0:11:56.559 --> 0:12:02.199 Libs or he's somehow giving fuel to his base. I 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:04.160 think sometimes he insults his own base. I think he 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:08.120 thinks that deep down that the MAGA base is all racists. 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:12.439 So that's why he plays to it, which if you 0:12:12.520 --> 0:12:15.920 believe it is in his agenda, but you're not racist, 0:12:15.920 --> 0:12:20.000 should offend you. And I think that that was so. 0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:23.400 The what I took away from this story was not 0:12:23.480 --> 0:12:27.000 that Donald Trump did this. Of course Donald Trump did this, right, 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:32.400 That is not the news. What was new and important 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:36.600 to chronicle in this story was the immediate reactions of 0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:39.480 people like Tim Scott, who said, this is the most 0:12:39.559 --> 0:12:41.559 racist thing that's come out of this White House. By 0:12:41.559 --> 0:12:44.640 the way, that phrasing was fascinating, right, talk about a 0:12:44.679 --> 0:12:47.920 guy you'd like to put under a polygraph and say, huh, 0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:50.400 you're implying you've seen other racist things come out of 0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:53.000 this White House. Right by saying this is the most racist. 0:12:53.200 --> 0:12:55.600 He didn't say this was the only racist thing that 0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:58.640 came out of this White House. So that's of note. 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:01.040 Let's just say I listened to words very carefully, and 0:13:01.120 --> 0:13:07.360 yes I part sentences too much. So assuming the other 0:13:07.520 --> 0:13:12.960 aspect of this was watching how many other Republicans decided 0:13:13.000 --> 0:13:15.240 to go in on that, and there was the weasel words. 0:13:15.440 --> 0:13:18.520 I can't imagine he did this. It must have been 0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:21.480 a staffer, right, these staffers that apparently are up as 0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:26.280 late as he is. To the President's credit, he essentially 0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:32.240 while he didn't he's essentially admitted he did it. He's now, 0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:35.640 I think, claiming he didn't see it all the way through. 0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:38.080 So we didn't see how it was ending. It's how 0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:40.680 he wants to go. But it's it's interesting that he 0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:46.880 kind of, you know, reversed the bus that that the 0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:51.000 that ran over the staffer that everybody decided, whoever this 0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:54.120 imaginary staffer was that did it. One would assume it's 0:13:54.160 --> 0:13:58.600 the caddy Dan Scavino, who supposedly runs all the social 0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:01.559 media accounts from time to time, but they never did 0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:04.240 say his name. It was sort of implied, but it 0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:06.800 was Donald Trump's way of bringing back the PUS. But 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:10.480 the point was, and this goes back to something I 0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:15.679 wrote on Substack last fall, which was the cracks are 0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:20.400 beginning to show in the Trump coalition. Well, I don't 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:22.680 know if a week's gone by where the cracks haven't 0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:26.680 gotten deeper, where you haven't had another Republican either decide 0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:29.360 not to seek reelection or decide to back away in 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:33.440 some way. The comfort that more Republicans have in criticizing 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:37.200 him publicly, in questioning him publicly. Look, I'm not going 0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:40.200 to sit here and say it's an avalanche of criticism 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:43.200 coming from Republicans, but you are starting to see that 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:45.720 more of them realize they're the ones that are going 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:48.000 to be on the ballot. The future of the party 0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:50.440 is in their hands because Donald Trump doesn't care about 0:14:50.440 --> 0:14:52.560 the future of the party. And you throw in the 0:14:52.560 --> 0:14:56.280 fact that I know to say Donald Trump had ever 0:14:56.400 --> 0:15:01.440 had a filter, it might be might be an understatement. 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:05.440 But here's what we do know. As people age, whatever 0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:08.520 filter they have goes away. So he didn't have much 0:15:08.520 --> 0:15:13.040 of a filter before. But it's but it's possible Donald 0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:16.520 Trump five years ago might have might have had some 0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:20.120 little voice in his head to say, don't retweet that 0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:26.280 Obama Obama racist meme. And this time there's no right 0:15:26.320 --> 0:15:28.640 He's that he's living in his He's living in a 0:15:28.720 --> 0:15:32.400 cocoon that seems to be even more self serving than 0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:35.360 ever before. He does not seem to appear like when 0:15:35.360 --> 0:15:39.680 he was asked about Jadie Vance getting booed at the 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:43.560 Olympics during the opening ceremonies, he seemed to feign surprised 0:15:43.560 --> 0:15:45.760 by that. Maybe that's his way of spinning, or maybe 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:48.760 he really is in this cocoon that he doesn't realize 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:52.560 how unpopular his administration is, how unpopular he is, and 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:55.440 how unpopular jd Vance is growing, but particularly in Europe. 0:15:55.480 --> 0:15:58.840 If he doesn't understand Teddy Vance has gone to Europe 0:15:58.840 --> 0:16:01.520 and attacked Europe every different way. He has attacked the 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:04.280 culture of Western Europe. He is he essentially said, you're 0:16:04.320 --> 0:16:08.280 bringing all this on yourself, and and he has gone 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:14.480 there to to to give aid and comfort to all 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:17.240 of these right wing movements that are very offensive to 0:16:17.280 --> 0:16:20.840 a lot of Western Europeans, particularly the ones that go 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:25.560 to the Olympics that can afford to travel. Let's just 0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:29.160 say this ain't a jade Van's crowd, and it's you know, 0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:32.480 it's I would caution the president to be careful attacking 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:37.040 Americans who American athletes who speak out. This is the 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:40.080 age we live in. And I have to say I've 0:16:40.080 --> 0:16:42.320 been impressed. The athletes are all trying to walk a line. 0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:45.560 You can see it. But it's uncomfortable. It's no fun 0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:48.800 to be an American overseas. And no, I have no 0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:52.480 doubt there are other athletes in the in the village 0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:56.080 giving American athletes grief that there is a cold shoulder. 0:16:57.360 --> 0:17:00.000 You talk to any Americans to travel overseas right now, 0:17:00.600 --> 0:17:03.560 it is uncomfortable. It's much worse than it was during 0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:09.520 the Iraq War. So it is. It wouldn't surprise me 0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:14.200 that when you sort of look at why Trump doesn't 0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:17.280 see how bad things are going for him, that because 0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:20.200 they've created this safe space in the Oval Office for 0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:23.240 him and they sort of block out any negative news, 0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:27.680 only show him like pieces of polls that give him 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:30.320 aid and comfort, but they don't show him the big pictures. 0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:37.199 So he really doesn't know how bad things are. It 0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:39.760 only is going to lead for him to do more mistakes. 0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:41.719 I mean you want to if you want evidence by 0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:44.920 the way of the filter being totally and completely gone, 0:17:45.119 --> 0:17:47.159 just look go back and look at that performance at 0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:51.040 the National Prayer Breakfast where he was just awful and attacking, 0:17:51.200 --> 0:17:56.720 just attacking Democrats, saying democrats aren't can't be religious people. 0:17:56.800 --> 0:18:01.359 It was just it couldn't have been more American and 0:18:01.440 --> 0:18:06.800 certainly more anti First Amendment than what he did. But 0:18:06.880 --> 0:18:09.080 I do think it's important to note how much he 0:18:09.119 --> 0:18:12.000 has put his party in jeopardy just in these first 0:18:12.119 --> 0:18:15.919 six weeks of this calendar year. Right, the year began 0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:18.760 with the Madua extradition, which looked like it was going 0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:20.959 to be a good news story for him. Right, it 0:18:21.040 --> 0:18:26.520 was an impressive military operation. They extracted Madureau out and 0:18:26.560 --> 0:18:30.560 it seemed as if they made it seem relatively easy, 0:18:30.600 --> 0:18:35.200 and as a military operation, it was relatively easy. Now 0:18:36.240 --> 0:18:39.679 he is now botching the aftermath, right, he is not 0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:45.280 interested in standing up democracy. He has rejected the democratic 0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:51.120 elected leaders in Venezuela and not endorsed them. He went 0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:55.320 ahead and accepted that peace prize from MS Machado, which 0:18:55.359 --> 0:18:59.280 is still one of the most It's not surprising, but 0:18:59.359 --> 0:19:02.600 still seems so brazen and I can't believe he did it. 0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:05.959 But I say this because beginning with then, and if 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:07.840 you think about it, there hasn't been a week that 0:19:07.880 --> 0:19:10.879 hasn't gone by, if not more, where he has said 0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:15.120 or done something that has put Republicans on the defensive. 0:19:15.200 --> 0:19:18.199 It's one thing to see, right the left get upset 0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:19.600 and the media and you can say, okay, this is 0:19:19.640 --> 0:19:22.560 partisan back and forth. But the distinction I want to 0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:25.440 make here is, like what we saw with the Obama 0:19:25.520 --> 0:19:30.320 racist me the Obviously there was plenty of outrage from 0:19:30.359 --> 0:19:32.760 people on the left and in the center, but to 0:19:32.960 --> 0:19:38.679 see elected Republicans express public outrage and the type of 0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:42.520 Republicans that did these weren't the liberal Republicans that always 0:19:42.520 --> 0:19:46.480 criticized Trump, right, like you're Lisa Murkowski's perhaps you're Don 0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:49.960 Bacons and folks like that. It was no or Tom 0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:53.440 Tillis who has become more comfortable criticizing Trump of late. 0:19:53.840 --> 0:19:57.280 It was Tim Scott, right, it was Roger Wicker. It 0:19:57.359 --> 0:20:02.120 was Pete Ricketts, who, by the way, in an increasingly 0:20:02.280 --> 0:20:06.720 more competitive US Senate race, Tim Scott, head of the NRSC, 0:20:07.280 --> 0:20:10.960 who just delivered some dire warnings to his Senate Republican 0:20:11.000 --> 0:20:14.280 conference that hey, Trump's approval ratings are a huge problem, 0:20:14.520 --> 0:20:16.639 and the Senate is really in play. And oh, by 0:20:16.680 --> 0:20:19.560 the way, it may not matter who they nominate in Texas, 0:20:20.160 --> 0:20:22.960 it's going to be a competitive race and a money suck. 0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:25.960 So look in each individual case. And by the way, 0:20:26.040 --> 0:20:28.920 Roger Wicker, I think is just speaking out because he's 0:20:28.920 --> 0:20:33.919 got an extraordinarily large African American constituency in Mississippi. But 0:20:33.960 --> 0:20:35.920 if you wanted to put it in pure political terms, 0:20:35.960 --> 0:20:39.000 there's also a potentially competitive US Senate seat there. It's 0:20:39.040 --> 0:20:42.280 not his seat, it's Sydney hind Smith, the other Senate 0:20:42.320 --> 0:20:45.399 seat there. So you could say the three of them 0:20:45.440 --> 0:20:48.879 all have their own political motivations to speak out and 0:20:49.480 --> 0:20:53.840 not wanting to be seen as silent co conspirators to 0:20:53.880 --> 0:20:59.560 Trump's racism. But that's just the latest. Right, last week, 0:21:00.040 --> 0:21:02.600 did I lead my what did I lead the show 0:21:02.600 --> 0:21:07.680 with the corruption from the corruption story from the Wall 0:21:07.680 --> 0:21:14.919 Street Journal that had a the UAE essentially as a 0:21:14.920 --> 0:21:20.480 government invest in the National Security Advisor, the UAE invest 0:21:20.520 --> 0:21:24.479 in Trump's company for Trump's kids, company's crypto company four 0:21:24.560 --> 0:21:27.080 days before the inauguration, and of course it leads to 0:21:27.119 --> 0:21:32.040 a foreign policy change. It is at least half a 0:21:32.200 --> 0:21:35.840 billion dollars in investment, one hundred and thirty million dollars 0:21:35.880 --> 0:21:39.119 in direct cash to the Trump's literally just cash. And 0:21:39.160 --> 0:21:42.280 as Andrew McCarthy, this conservative legal analyst that writes for 0:21:42.320 --> 0:21:46.480 The National Review, said, you know who was extraordinarily critical 0:21:46.480 --> 0:21:51.360 of sort of the mixing the bidens did of the professional, 0:21:51.760 --> 0:21:56.119 the personal, the political, and the family with Hunter Biden 0:21:56.240 --> 0:22:01.480 and Joe Biden. He said this, this is literally exponentially worse, 0:22:02.160 --> 0:22:05.560 uh and at a at another level of corrupt. So 0:22:05.600 --> 0:22:07.960 if you were outraged by the corruption of of of 0:22:08.040 --> 0:22:11.200 Joe Biden and thought that it may have reached in 0:22:11.400 --> 0:22:14.760 the level of impeachment, what Andrew McCarthy is arguing, and 0:22:14.800 --> 0:22:19.680 again conservatively right, This is the conservative National review legal 0:22:19.720 --> 0:22:24.760 ailis this he said, is literally he said, add a 0:22:24.800 --> 0:22:28.280 couple of zeros of worse to this. Okay, not one zero, 0:22:28.400 --> 0:22:31.680 a couple of zeros when it comes to this, because 0:22:31.680 --> 0:22:35.680 the actual financial corruption is unbelievable, and the direct policy 0:22:35.800 --> 0:22:41.240 changes that came from you know, following the actual transactions, 0:22:41.520 --> 0:22:45.679 you know, you didn't quite see it as crystal clear 0:22:46.200 --> 0:22:48.520 with the purchase of the Hunter Biden paintings and all 0:22:48.560 --> 0:22:52.439 of that. It was a little less directly related to 0:22:52.520 --> 0:22:57.000 actual policy changes with Trump. Right, there's no there's no subtlety. 0:22:57.800 --> 0:23:00.280 H And that was another point that McCarthy made. That's 0:23:00.359 --> 0:23:02.840 just that was last week, right in the week before 0:23:02.880 --> 0:23:05.600 we had this second killing of an American citizen by 0:23:05.680 --> 0:23:10.640 ICE agents in Minneapolis, right two different weekends, essentially due 0:23:10.640 --> 0:23:14.399 to that, where again Republicans were criticizing the policy and 0:23:14.400 --> 0:23:18.240 feeling uncomfortable on this Abu Dhabi investment. Many Republicans aren't 0:23:18.240 --> 0:23:20.919 saying a word, but you now have Republican legal analysts 0:23:20.960 --> 0:23:23.640 who can't look away and have to realize that, hey, this, 0:23:24.240 --> 0:23:27.200 if you thought Biden, what the Bidens did between Hunter 0:23:27.240 --> 0:23:29.560 Biden Joe Biden was corrupt, then what the Trumps are 0:23:29.600 --> 0:23:35.560 doing is historic in its level of corruption. There's the 0:23:35.600 --> 0:23:38.439 bizarre raid of Fulton County and the votes. There's the 0:23:39.160 --> 0:23:43.760 talk about federalizing elections, which the most anti small sea 0:23:43.840 --> 0:23:46.800 conservative thing you could come up with. The thing is 0:23:46.920 --> 0:23:50.280 all of this. If I brought up Greenland and the 0:23:50.440 --> 0:23:56.800 controversy that sort of Royal Davos, and essentially it's arguably 0:23:56.840 --> 0:23:59.200 it is Greenland that has helped you unite Europe against 0:23:59.280 --> 0:24:02.199 the United States, which of course triggered Canada to go 0:24:02.240 --> 0:24:03.920 do a trade deal with China that we had been 0:24:03.960 --> 0:24:07.880 hoping that they wouldn't do when it came to our 0:24:07.960 --> 0:24:12.399 concerns about sovereignty and security when it involves China. So again, 0:24:12.640 --> 0:24:17.000 everything I've just discussed has all taken place since January third. 0:24:17.320 --> 0:24:21.639 We are at this is February ninth, folks, and I 0:24:21.680 --> 0:24:24.320 say a week hasn't gone by. It seems like every 0:24:24.359 --> 0:24:28.880 there's at least two major incidents a week where Trump 0:24:28.960 --> 0:24:32.119 either says something or does something that's putting Republicans on 0:24:32.160 --> 0:24:35.160 the defensive, that is urging Republicans to have to speak out. 0:24:36.480 --> 0:24:42.120 This is a growing electoral disaster, and I don't think 0:24:42.240 --> 0:24:49.760 folks fully appreciate what's coming. This episode of the Chuck 0:24:49.800 --> 0:24:52.439 Podcast is being brought to you by Quints. As you know, 0:24:52.520 --> 0:24:55.520 a well built wardrobe is about the pieces that work together, 0:24:55.640 --> 0:24:58.199 hold up over time, and frankly allow you to be 0:24:58.480 --> 0:25:02.800 flexible and sort of business. It's casual to say social casual. 0:25:02.960 --> 0:25:06.320 Quins does this really well. 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It's a fan favorite for deep restorative sleep. 0:27:16.800 --> 0:27:19.000 So bring on the good vibes and treat yourself to 0:27:19.040 --> 0:27:22.800 Soul today. Right now, Soul is offering my audience thirty 0:27:22.840 --> 0:27:25.920 percent off your entire order, So go to getsold dot 0:27:25.960 --> 0:27:30.000 Com use the promo code toodcast. Don't forget that code. 0:27:30.160 --> 0:27:34.840 That's getsold dot Com promo code toodcast for thirty percent off. 0:27:39.000 --> 0:27:43.800 So that brings me to what I think is the 0:27:43.880 --> 0:27:48.080 most underreported story from last week. Obviously the Obama racist beme. 0:27:48.560 --> 0:27:50.640 We have the Abu Dhabi story. You have the fear 0:27:50.640 --> 0:27:54.000 of federalizing elections. Those arguably those three stories all got 0:27:54.000 --> 0:27:58.360 more attention last week than the milestone that was reached 0:28:00.119 --> 0:28:04.680 week when we got our fiftieth and fifty first incumbent 0:28:05.119 --> 0:28:09.280 member of Congress deciding not to run for reelection in 0:28:09.320 --> 0:28:13.480 twenty twenty six. This marks now we are inching ever 0:28:13.560 --> 0:28:19.359 closer to the highest ever open seat total in a 0:28:19.440 --> 0:28:25.600 midterm year basically since World War Two. Okay, in twenty eighteen, 0:28:25.640 --> 0:28:29.520 there were fifty five members of Congress who chose not 0:28:29.640 --> 0:28:33.240 to return. Either they didn't seek reelection or they decided 0:28:33.280 --> 0:28:35.919 to go seek higher office, but they did not seek reelection. 0:28:36.000 --> 0:28:40.160 We are sitting now at fifty one. There's still most 0:28:40.200 --> 0:28:43.240 of the filing deadlines have not yet passed. We haven't 0:28:43.240 --> 0:28:45.760 had the California filing deadline pass, and we know there's 0:28:45.760 --> 0:28:47.920 going to be a handful of Republicans likely that walk 0:28:47.960 --> 0:28:50.720 away because of the remap. We have the Virginia remap 0:28:50.800 --> 0:28:53.280 that's likely to happen, that's going to lead to some retirements. 0:28:53.440 --> 0:28:55.920 We've got the Florida remap that's likely to lead to 0:28:55.960 --> 0:28:58.000 some retirement. So we are well on our way. The 0:28:58.040 --> 0:29:03.120 all time record, by the way, is sixty five open 0:29:03.160 --> 0:29:05.120 seats going into an election year, and that was back 0:29:05.120 --> 0:29:09.720 in nineteen ninety two. That was a confluence of circumstances. 0:29:09.720 --> 0:29:11.840 It was a reapportionment year, so you had your typical 0:29:12.360 --> 0:29:14.160 you had that, but it was the first time that 0:29:14.200 --> 0:29:19.360 the Justice Department insisted on majority minority districts in certain 0:29:19.400 --> 0:29:24.280 Southern states, which even led to a more upheaval in 0:29:24.440 --> 0:29:26.880 how the maps were drawn all over the country, but 0:29:26.960 --> 0:29:31.280 particularly in the South. And you also that was the 0:29:31.600 --> 0:29:34.120 if you did not if you chose to retire that year. 0:29:34.120 --> 0:29:36.120 There was one other loophole which encouraged a lot of 0:29:36.120 --> 0:29:38.840 incumbents to leave office at nineteen ninety two and not 0:29:38.880 --> 0:29:41.400 seek reelection. If you left in nineteen ninety two, you 0:29:41.440 --> 0:29:44.240 got to keep whatever leftover campaign money you had, and 0:29:44.280 --> 0:29:46.040 you got to keep it and make it your money. 0:29:46.040 --> 0:29:48.600 You could turn it into an ioa or investment fund literally. 0:29:49.600 --> 0:29:51.920 But if you chose to stay, you no longer it 0:29:52.000 --> 0:29:56.640 was no longer legal for you to make campaign money 0:29:56.680 --> 0:30:01.120 your own money. That's right, folks. It used to be 0:30:00.000 --> 0:30:04.520 members of Congress could take their campaign treasury and when 0:30:04.520 --> 0:30:07.320 they were done running, they could pocket whatever was left. 0:30:08.120 --> 0:30:11.840 That was perfectly legal. Now if you pocket it, at 0:30:11.880 --> 0:30:14.040 least you have to come up with dummy corporations and 0:30:14.160 --> 0:30:22.400 charge your campaign account invented items for reimbursement in order 0:30:22.480 --> 0:30:25.040 to try to get that money, but before you could 0:30:25.080 --> 0:30:27.800 just pocket it. So that's why ninety two is sort 0:30:27.800 --> 0:30:30.520 of an outlier. But the real important story is for 0:30:30.600 --> 0:30:33.479 a mid term cycle. And I've gone back and studied 0:30:33.480 --> 0:30:37.000 this since nineteen fifty four at fifty one open seats. 0:30:37.040 --> 0:30:40.920 Right now, we are only four away from the modern 0:30:40.920 --> 0:30:43.240 record of fifty five, which was twenty eighteen, which led 0:30:43.240 --> 0:30:46.000 to a forty seat pickup for the out party. We're 0:30:46.000 --> 0:30:47.840 going to pass that. The question is how close to 0:30:47.880 --> 0:30:53.320 sixty five will we get? So how did we get there? All? Right? 0:30:53.360 --> 0:30:56.400 The latest two names, right, it didn't make what didn't 0:30:56.440 --> 0:30:59.080 make huge news? You didn't see it on any cable news. 0:30:59.160 --> 0:31:03.960 Chiron was Barry Loudermilk of Georgia, Mark Emmedi of Nevada. 0:31:04.000 --> 0:31:09.880 Both Republicans and Republican solid Republican seats. They're unlikely to 0:31:12.720 --> 0:31:14.840 see de You know, they were going to likely win 0:31:14.920 --> 0:31:17.800 reelection had they chosen to run. But what's interesting about 0:31:17.800 --> 0:31:19.880 both of them, and it's part of a larger trend 0:31:19.880 --> 0:31:21.800 I want to get into. Both were elected before Donald 0:31:21.800 --> 0:31:25.840 Trump took office, and both fit a growing category of 0:31:25.920 --> 0:31:29.280 Republican retirees that I call the exhaustion caucus. These are 0:31:29.320 --> 0:31:31.880 members who are no longer looking for a promotion in politics, 0:31:31.960 --> 0:31:33.880 right running for governor, running for Senate, running for some 0:31:33.960 --> 0:31:36.160 over the office. They're just looking for an exit, right. 0:31:36.320 --> 0:31:40.200 Ludermoak was elected in twenty fourteen and started serving in 0:31:40.240 --> 0:31:43.240 January twenty fifteen. In fact, in his statement announcing his retirement, 0:31:43.240 --> 0:31:47.600 he leaned into the citizen legislator idea. Representing people in Congress, 0:31:47.640 --> 0:31:49.160 he said is a service, not a career, and he 0:31:49.200 --> 0:31:52.040 talked about focusing on family, being a husband and a grandfather. 0:31:52.080 --> 0:31:53.560 He didn't come up and just try to light the 0:31:53.560 --> 0:31:57.360 place on fire. Amedi has represented that second district in Nevada. 0:31:57.960 --> 0:32:01.560 He won a twenty eleven special election. He's the lone 0:32:01.600 --> 0:32:04.719 Republican in the Nevada delegation. And he framed his decision 0:32:04.760 --> 0:32:07.960 as passing the torch after roughly fifteen years in Washington, 0:32:08.440 --> 0:32:10.719 and he said it's time he announced early because they 0:32:10.720 --> 0:32:12.800 have a later filing deadline. Want to give others time 0:32:13.120 --> 0:32:16.480 to step up. And again, this is the one congressional 0:32:16.520 --> 0:32:19.720 seat that represents basically everything in Nevada that is in 0:32:19.720 --> 0:32:24.240 the Las Vegas media market. Essentially. Now, look, they don't 0:32:24.240 --> 0:32:26.880 seem like guys that are plotting a comeback. They're just done. 0:32:28.000 --> 0:32:31.080 And I think that distinction matters, because the most revealing 0:32:31.120 --> 0:32:34.480 thing to think about in these retirements is that there's 0:32:34.960 --> 0:32:38.920 clearly two different forces operating here at once, particularly when 0:32:38.960 --> 0:32:42.240 it comes to motivating what certain Republicans try to degree do. 0:32:42.640 --> 0:32:44.720 Because you have now we're up to I believe, twenty 0:32:44.800 --> 0:32:48.000 nine Republicans who have announced that they're not seeking reelection, 0:32:48.440 --> 0:32:50.960 About half are running for another office, and about half 0:32:51.040 --> 0:32:54.640 are just walking away. Right that group that's walking away, 0:32:54.840 --> 0:32:57.480 they're tired, tired of the grind, tired of the incentives. 0:32:57.640 --> 0:33:00.600 A lot of them don't like the performative, the way 0:33:00.680 --> 0:33:03.680 political theater now is the dominant force of American politics 0:33:03.920 --> 0:33:07.160 that you don't get any credit for doing legislating. Of course, 0:33:07.160 --> 0:33:09.520 the other group is leaving because you know, they just 0:33:09.680 --> 0:33:11.800 always had viewed the House as a stepping stone, and 0:33:11.840 --> 0:33:13.080 this is going to be a bad year to be 0:33:13.120 --> 0:33:15.080 an incumbent Republican, so you might as well go up 0:33:15.120 --> 0:33:17.320 and out because maybe you can set yourself up for 0:33:17.400 --> 0:33:20.400 another office two or four years down the road. Now, 0:33:20.440 --> 0:33:23.040 it's going to create a massive experience gap at some point, 0:33:23.160 --> 0:33:25.600 right we are seeing a massive churn, and so there's 0:33:25.600 --> 0:33:27.440 going to be a lot of institutional memories that go 0:33:27.520 --> 0:33:30.560 away because the longtime members are the committee chairs that 0:33:30.600 --> 0:33:33.640 are leaving the institutional memory types when they walk out 0:33:33.640 --> 0:33:36.080 the door. You don't just lose votes, you lose people 0:33:36.080 --> 0:33:39.800 who know how to legislate, how to negotiate, frankly, how 0:33:39.880 --> 0:33:43.400 to work across the aisle, even in this dysfunctional atmosphere. 0:33:44.400 --> 0:33:45.960 And what it will mean is we're going to have 0:33:45.960 --> 0:33:48.360 a House it's likely to be more political, more partisan, 0:33:48.400 --> 0:33:52.240 more junior, more ambitious, more online, which means less functional. 0:33:53.000 --> 0:33:58.320 So it's you know, we'll wait to see what this 0:33:58.360 --> 0:34:00.480 Congress looks like in twenty twenty seven, but that's a 0:34:00.720 --> 0:34:05.000 likely problem. So fifty one, Why does fifty one open 0:34:05.000 --> 0:34:08.080 seats matter beyond being just a big number? And why 0:34:08.080 --> 0:34:12.000 am I now essentially saying, hey, you can call it now. 0:34:12.040 --> 0:34:15.000 The Democrats have one, They're gonna win the House. It 0:34:15.040 --> 0:34:19.120 would take an historical set of events that we have 0:34:19.239 --> 0:34:22.120 no idea what they would look like for this not 0:34:22.239 --> 0:34:25.279 to be the case. Because open seats always behave like 0:34:25.320 --> 0:34:27.680 a political accelerant. Right when a seat is open, the 0:34:27.719 --> 0:34:31.799 incumbent advantage disappears. National environment matters, more, money matters more, 0:34:31.960 --> 0:34:34.799 Candidate quality matters more. Historically, when open seats pile up early, 0:34:35.320 --> 0:34:36.920 it tends to mean one of two things. Either the 0:34:36.960 --> 0:34:40.480 majority party is bracing for impact or the members closest 0:34:40.520 --> 0:34:42.600 to the ground are seeing something coming that everyone else 0:34:42.680 --> 0:34:46.360 is still denying. And the other tell, of course, is 0:34:46.360 --> 0:34:50.000 that it's February. February. Retirements are the early warning system. 0:34:50.080 --> 0:34:53.399 If you're already at fifty one now, it suggests there's 0:34:53.440 --> 0:34:56.640 a lot of quiet quitting still sitting on people's desks. 0:34:56.719 --> 0:34:59.279 So let's talk about records, because this is where people 0:34:59.320 --> 0:35:02.200 can get sloppy. As I said, the modern mid mid 0:35:02.400 --> 0:35:05.799 term era benchmark, and then there's the all time benchmark. 0:35:07.719 --> 0:35:11.800 The modern benchmarks midterms since nineteen fifty four, the cycles 0:35:11.840 --> 0:35:15.040 with the huge retirement waves in the television era nineteen 0:35:15.080 --> 0:35:18.480 ninety four, twenty ten, twenty eighteen. Those are my modern 0:35:18.560 --> 0:35:22.399 reference points. And when retirement numbers start approaching that neighborhood 0:35:22.920 --> 0:35:26.759 forty plus, history usually points in one direction, trouble for 0:35:26.800 --> 0:35:29.600 the party in power, right, And if you extend the 0:35:29.680 --> 0:35:35.080 lens beyond the midterms, you have to use nineteen ninety two. 0:35:35.120 --> 0:35:39.840 Is that modern is that modern high of retirement, sixty 0:35:40.000 --> 0:35:44.279 five House members choosing not to run again. And as 0:35:44.320 --> 0:35:47.360 I told you, there was a variety of reasons why 0:35:47.719 --> 0:35:50.200 that created such a massive shake up. It was still 0:35:50.239 --> 0:35:51.800 to this day over there, I think, where there was 0:35:51.800 --> 0:35:54.080 one hundred and ten new members of Congress, and it 0:35:54.120 --> 0:35:56.920 also led to then seventy three more new members of 0:35:56.920 --> 0:36:00.640 Congress the following cycle in a four year cycle really 0:36:01.200 --> 0:36:04.120 basically cycled out. Anybody that was left from the fifties 0:36:04.120 --> 0:36:07.880 and sixties in Congress was sort of really totally cycled 0:36:07.880 --> 0:36:17.680 out by nineteen ninety four. So now I want to 0:36:17.719 --> 0:36:20.680 be mindful of the fact that nothing is statistically sound 0:36:20.719 --> 0:36:22.279 here that I'm gonna say, right, when you only have 0:36:23.120 --> 0:36:27.080 when you only have like fifteen incidentss to use, right, 0:36:27.160 --> 0:36:29.920 you can't say this is statistically sound. But I do 0:36:29.960 --> 0:36:33.440 think the patterns matter here a lot. So in the 0:36:33.480 --> 0:36:35.439 spirit of that argument, I'm gonna frame it this way. 0:36:37.000 --> 0:36:41.960 Once you see the number of open seats get over twenty, 0:36:42.200 --> 0:36:46.560 just twenty, it becomes extremely difficult for the majority party 0:36:46.600 --> 0:36:49.600 to hold the line because open seats are the proxy 0:36:49.640 --> 0:36:52.239 for vulnerability and opportunity. Well, guess what we're now over 0:36:52.680 --> 0:36:57.759 fifty with essentially too with essentially about sixty percent of 0:36:57.800 --> 0:37:01.520 them being Republican, it's about two one. Here is where 0:37:01.520 --> 0:37:05.520 we're sitting at now. Open seats aren't a cause for 0:37:05.600 --> 0:37:09.480 the wave, but they're the early warning sign that the 0:37:09.520 --> 0:37:13.320 ground is shifting and that you have some longtime incumbents 0:37:13.320 --> 0:37:15.799 reading tea leaves deciding they'd rather leave on their own 0:37:15.880 --> 0:37:19.479 terms than get swept out and humiliated. And then there's 0:37:19.640 --> 0:37:23.200 always one other piece to the puzzle. Presidential approval. Open 0:37:23.239 --> 0:37:26.200 seats are the engine. Presidential approval rating is the fuel. 0:37:26.560 --> 0:37:29.560 The president is popular, the party can sometimes blunt losses 0:37:29.880 --> 0:37:32.719 the president is unpopular, especially if they're just sitting below 0:37:32.800 --> 0:37:35.800 fifty percent approval, and Donald Trump hasn't seen forty five. 0:37:36.000 --> 0:37:39.520 It seems like in four months, let alone fifty. Midterms 0:37:39.560 --> 0:37:43.040 usually then become nationalized and become a national referendum. So 0:37:43.080 --> 0:37:45.720 you have a president's approval ratings sitting in the low forties, 0:37:45.760 --> 0:37:49.520 which look a lot like Bush going into six, Obama 0:37:49.600 --> 0:37:53.759 going into fourteen and ten, frankly, and Bill Clinton going 0:37:53.760 --> 0:37:58.800 in to nineteen ninety four. So, putting all this together, 0:37:58.880 --> 0:38:01.080 here's why this story is in face. It's accelerating we've 0:38:01.120 --> 0:38:04.000 entered the most volatile period for retirements, late winter to 0:38:04.080 --> 0:38:08.359 spring wind decision window. Members are looking at fundraising, the map, 0:38:08.400 --> 0:38:10.399 the mood, their own lives, and of course all these 0:38:10.440 --> 0:38:14.200 redistricting threats as well, and they're all deciding whether it's 0:38:14.200 --> 0:38:15.600 worth it. Do they want to get to know a 0:38:15.640 --> 0:38:18.759 new constituency for a cycle that may not go very well. 0:38:19.320 --> 0:38:21.319 I think we know the answer to that. And if 0:38:21.360 --> 0:38:23.279 you want to know where the next tranch of names 0:38:23.360 --> 0:38:25.480 is likely to come from on the retirement watch list, 0:38:25.800 --> 0:38:27.799 there's a couple of states where maps are in motion, 0:38:27.920 --> 0:38:31.360 Florida and Virginia. Right DeSantis has a special session in 0:38:31.400 --> 0:38:33.839 April where he wants to focus on redrawing the map, 0:38:33.880 --> 0:38:37.000 try to pick up four or five seats of more 0:38:37.040 --> 0:38:40.520 seats that are more Republican, seeing if he can somehow 0:38:40.560 --> 0:38:44.120 squeeze more Republican districts out of that map. I'm skeptical, 0:38:44.200 --> 0:38:46.200 but they think they can get a couple, especially if 0:38:46.200 --> 0:38:48.440 the Voting Rights Act essentially gets swept away by the 0:38:48.440 --> 0:38:53.200 Supreme Courts. But when you're shaking up that map, it's 0:38:53.239 --> 0:38:55.960 likely to lead to retirements. We hadn't thought about even 0:38:56.000 --> 0:38:59.160 some incumbents. If it creates an incumbent incumbent fight stuff 0:38:59.200 --> 0:39:02.680 like that. Then, of course Virginia where Democrats are pushing 0:39:02.719 --> 0:39:05.960 for a mechanism to enable new maps, right, there's going 0:39:06.000 --> 0:39:10.200 to be a special constitutional amendment election in order to 0:39:10.200 --> 0:39:13.720 get permission. And if they do that, they may eliminate 0:39:13.719 --> 0:39:17.680 four Republican incumbents and most of them likely won't try 0:39:17.719 --> 0:39:21.880 to seek re elections. So we're sitting at fifty one 0:39:21.960 --> 0:39:25.560 right now. The likelihood that this grows to over fifty five, 0:39:25.600 --> 0:39:28.080 which was the number that was hit in eighteen when 0:39:28.120 --> 0:39:30.960 Democrats then the out party, won over forty seats, then 0:39:31.000 --> 0:39:33.919 you see where this is going, right, We already see 0:39:33.920 --> 0:39:37.600 the Houses already showing signs of high volatility. Majority party 0:39:37.680 --> 0:39:42.439 is bleeding its incumbency advantage. And oh, by the way, 0:39:42.480 --> 0:39:45.680 what happened over the weekend? Two more special elections we're 0:39:45.760 --> 0:39:49.000 in very red And yes they're state legislative elections. Yes 0:39:49.040 --> 0:39:52.000 they're special elections happening on a weekend, And yes, the 0:39:52.080 --> 0:39:55.160 Democrats have more voters who pay more attention to these 0:39:55.360 --> 0:39:59.720 special elections and Republicans do. Okay, Well, that means Democrats 0:39:59.760 --> 0:40:02.200 are pay attention. It means Democrats are more fired up 0:40:02.719 --> 0:40:06.560 and you know, we're seeing another weekend of over performance 0:40:06.600 --> 0:40:10.720 by Democrats in legislative districts that Trump carried by double digits. 0:40:10.840 --> 0:40:13.200 And it seems like another you know, this is like 0:40:13.440 --> 0:40:16.439 you know, another plane land safely at national right. It's 0:40:16.440 --> 0:40:18.840 happening with such frequency it's hard to call it news. 0:40:18.880 --> 0:40:23.680 It's almost like that continuation. So you all, this is happening. 0:40:24.800 --> 0:40:28.600 You've got open seats hitting critical territory. And like I said, 0:40:28.600 --> 0:40:32.520 we've got I looked it up. There's another and this 0:40:32.600 --> 0:40:38.279 is this is intriguing here, there's another one, two, three, four, five, six, 0:40:38.280 --> 0:40:40.840 seventy eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, sixteen, 0:40:40.840 --> 0:40:42.920 seventy eighteen, nineteen, twenty twenty one to two, twenty three, 0:40:42.920 --> 0:40:45.760 twenty four to twenty five, twenty six, twight seven. Okay, 0:40:45.840 --> 0:40:50.839 there's another twenty seven Republican incumbents sitting in districts where 0:40:50.880 --> 0:40:54.319 Donald Trump received fifty nine percent or less into twenty 0:40:54.320 --> 0:40:56.719 twenty four presidential vote. And I've put the market fifty 0:40:56.800 --> 0:41:00.319 nine percent I think now given the over performance, given 0:41:00.360 --> 0:41:04.440 Trump's approval ratings, and frankly is just terrible leadership right 0:41:04.480 --> 0:41:07.920 now of the party on messaging anybody sitting in a 0:41:07.960 --> 0:41:12.520 fifty nine percent Trump district or less should be scared nestless. Okay, 0:41:12.719 --> 0:41:16.279 they should be feeling it a lot. Well, there's these 0:41:16.680 --> 0:41:18.560 Republicans I was just telling you about. There's a big 0:41:18.640 --> 0:41:21.480 chunk of California Republicans. That filing deadline is March six. 0:41:22.080 --> 0:41:25.280 Some Georgia Republicans sit in there. Do any more throat 0:41:25.520 --> 0:41:29.680 decide to do that. Wisconsin's filing deadline, Michigan's filing deadline, 0:41:31.400 --> 0:41:33.480 there's a New York filing deadline in May, which you 0:41:33.480 --> 0:41:37.719 could see it change a little bit. So this is 0:41:37.760 --> 0:41:41.560 a list that's likely to grow. And again I go 0:41:41.680 --> 0:41:45.719 back every single here. You could just look at this. 0:41:45.960 --> 0:41:48.840 I put together these different midterm charts. So twenty eighteen 0:41:48.960 --> 0:41:52.520 fifty five open seats the out party, the Democrats, gained 0:41:52.680 --> 0:41:57.160 forty seats, flip control. Right. In twenty twenty two, there 0:41:57.160 --> 0:42:01.080 were forty nine open seats, Republicans nine seats, and they 0:42:01.120 --> 0:42:04.760 flipped control. Nineteen ninety four, there were forty eight open seats, 0:42:05.080 --> 0:42:08.960 Republicans netted fifty two overall and flipped control. Twenty ten, 0:42:09.120 --> 0:42:14.000 thirty eight open seats, Republicans gained sixty three flipped control. 0:42:14.239 --> 0:42:17.960 Two thousand and six, thirty one open seats, Democrats gained 0:42:17.960 --> 0:42:22.960 thirty one seats and flipped control. Nineteen fifty eight, there 0:42:22.960 --> 0:42:28.239 were twenty eight open seats, Democrats gained forty eight. They 0:42:28.239 --> 0:42:30.600 already held control, they were already in charge, but they 0:42:30.600 --> 0:42:33.640 netted another forty eight. Nineteen eighty two, a similar situation. 0:42:33.760 --> 0:42:36.080 There were twenty four open seats, So I just gave 0:42:36.120 --> 0:42:41.120 you in the midterms in order there right, every single one, 0:42:41.320 --> 0:42:44.359 twenty four and above, going back to nineteen fifty four 0:42:44.400 --> 0:42:50.720 to midterms, and the out party always gained seats, and 0:42:50.880 --> 0:42:54.080 many times it flipped. Most of the time it flipped 0:42:54.080 --> 0:42:57.759 control of the House. So the point is, at this 0:42:57.920 --> 0:43:02.880 point in time, it is hard to come up with 0:43:02.880 --> 0:43:06.360 a scenario where Republicans are going to hold the House. 0:43:07.120 --> 0:43:12.160 Every historical marker says otherwise. The only two times where 0:43:12.200 --> 0:43:14.360 the party in power was able to do well is 0:43:14.360 --> 0:43:17.760 when the two when presidential approval was over sixty percent 0:43:17.800 --> 0:43:21.280 Bill Clinton in nineteen ninety eight and George W. Bush 0:43:21.360 --> 0:43:24.040 in two thousand and two. That was post nine to eleven. 0:43:24.080 --> 0:43:29.200 Nineteen ninety eight was the Monica backlash, where Clinton's personal 0:43:29.280 --> 0:43:32.080 rating was in the toilet, but his professional rating was 0:43:32.239 --> 0:43:34.960 sky high. It was this weird. The voter was almost 0:43:35.200 --> 0:43:37.400 like stubborn about it. No, we don't like Clinton, and 0:43:37.520 --> 0:43:39.400 yes we love the job he's doing. It was like 0:43:39.560 --> 0:43:43.680 we were It was this fascinating split in the way 0:43:43.760 --> 0:43:47.239 polling was registering. No, people were looking for a way 0:43:47.280 --> 0:43:51.239 to express personal disgust at what Trump, at what Clinton did, 0:43:51.800 --> 0:43:55.120 but they didn't. But they wanted to make it clear 0:43:55.160 --> 0:43:57.279 they didn't want him thrown out of office over it. Right, 0:43:57.320 --> 0:44:00.480 And so you would see this dichotomy in the where 0:44:00.520 --> 0:44:04.399 his favorable rating, his personal favorable rating was upside down, 0:44:04.640 --> 0:44:08.040 but his professional rating was through the roof. The point 0:44:08.080 --> 0:44:11.520 is those are the two exceptions. Now ask yourself, what's 0:44:11.520 --> 0:44:14.640 Donald Trump going to do between now and November to 0:44:14.840 --> 0:44:21.680 somehow get a sixty percent joberating? Is it improbable? Yes, 0:44:21.760 --> 0:44:24.040 I'm never gonna say anything's impossible in the Trump earrow, 0:44:24.120 --> 0:44:33.799 that's for sure. But the point is massive unexpected outside 0:44:33.880 --> 0:44:39.400 events like you know, aliens landing, you know in the Arctic, 0:44:39.520 --> 0:44:41.960 I mean, you know, whatever it is, like, it is 0:44:42.440 --> 0:44:49.120 stuff you cannot you cannot say is a feasible likely 0:44:49.280 --> 0:44:55.520 event to happen? Right? So, and of course what's really 0:44:55.600 --> 0:45:00.880 happening right now with Donald Trump, is he is epitomizing 0:45:01.000 --> 0:45:04.960 the saying that I love to quote from Haley Barber, 0:45:05.360 --> 0:45:09.160 the long time Republican operative and governor of Mississippi, who'd 0:45:09.160 --> 0:45:12.200 love to and I think it's somebody else's expression first. 0:45:12.200 --> 0:45:15.319 But good gets better and bad gets worse. And as 0:45:15.400 --> 0:45:19.160 we're seeing with Donald Trump, that is getting worse every week. Right. 0:45:19.560 --> 0:45:23.000 It feels like every week he throws another log on 0:45:23.160 --> 0:45:28.160 the let me piss off more than half the country bonfire. 0:45:28.920 --> 0:45:34.040 And that's why you're seeing more and more Republicans figure 0:45:34.040 --> 0:45:36.040 out a way to push back. Some say it publicly, 0:45:36.840 --> 0:45:40.400 some choose not to file for reelection, and others may 0:45:40.440 --> 0:45:44.799 be contemplating doing either of those things. Because if they 0:45:44.840 --> 0:45:48.080 want to speak out but they think it'll backfire, then 0:45:48.080 --> 0:45:51.680 my guess is they walk away if they assess their 0:45:51.719 --> 0:45:58.040 political situation and decide maybe they can survive by going 0:45:58.080 --> 0:46:00.840 after Trump. Maybe he's becoming more unpopular. Maybe the Epstein 0:46:00.880 --> 0:46:02.919 files have left to Mark by the way, I didn't 0:46:02.920 --> 0:46:06.239 even get to the Epstein files. Right, That's like the 0:46:06.280 --> 0:46:11.360 other none of that has gotten any better for him either. 0:46:11.520 --> 0:46:14.239 It may be sullying the Clintons Bill Clinton a little bit. 0:46:14.280 --> 0:46:17.880 By the way, I still don't I don't under you know, 0:46:17.960 --> 0:46:20.960 other than Republicans wanting to attach Hillary Clinton to anything 0:46:21.000 --> 0:46:22.960 that they can attach her to. I do not understand 0:46:22.960 --> 0:46:26.799 why she's being asked to testify on anything Epstein. Right. 0:46:26.800 --> 0:46:28.440 There's nothing in the files in any case she was 0:46:28.480 --> 0:46:31.440 ever on the planes, ever did anything, et cetera. I 0:46:31.480 --> 0:46:34.680 guess they'll say, well, she must have had some played 0:46:34.719 --> 0:46:37.319 some part in the Clinton Foundation and the relationship with 0:46:37.360 --> 0:46:41.719 Gallaine Maxwell, even that seems beyond tenuous at best. She 0:46:41.920 --> 0:46:47.000 was a sitting senator at the time, So I don't 0:46:47.000 --> 0:46:49.000 get that one. I don't see Melinda Gates being called 0:46:49.040 --> 0:46:52.959 up to find out what she knew about about Bill 0:46:52.960 --> 0:46:56.960 Gates's relationships with Jeffrey Epstein, Right, We don't see any 0:46:57.000 --> 0:46:59.320 of that. So that seems to be a head scratcher 0:47:00.200 --> 0:47:02.640 on that one. And we'll see if that that's one 0:47:02.680 --> 0:47:06.080 of those that I would say to mister comer, be 0:47:06.120 --> 0:47:10.000 careful what you ask for, Be careful of what you're 0:47:10.000 --> 0:47:13.040 doing there. You want to talk about something that's more 0:47:13.120 --> 0:47:17.520 likely to blow up in your face than somehow create 0:47:17.560 --> 0:47:22.920 political deflection for Trump. It's playing games like this with 0:47:23.040 --> 0:47:27.560 trying to We're trying to target Hillary Clinton in particular. 0:47:28.360 --> 0:47:30.719 Just you know, I know you think she's so unpopular, 0:47:30.760 --> 0:47:35.480 it doesn't matter what you do. I'd watch it. I 0:47:36.000 --> 0:47:40.279 think there's that's something I would be extraordinarily careful with. 0:47:45.600 --> 0:47:47.759 This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you 0:47:47.800 --> 0:47:50.560 by American Financing. Let's be honest, the math just isn't 0:47:50.560 --> 0:47:53.480 adding up lately. Between the grocery store and those skyrocketing 0:47:53.480 --> 0:47:56.239 insurance premiums, even with a steady job, more families are 0:47:56.280 --> 0:47:58.960 being forced to rely on high interest credit cards to 0:47:59.080 --> 0:48:02.280 cover expenses. 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Life Insurance 0:50:51.800 --> 0:50:54.480 is something you should really think about it, especially if 0:50:54.520 --> 0:50:59.880 you've got a growing family. By the way, one of 0:50:59.920 --> 0:51:05.120 the things that I wouldn't mind hearing from you the viewers. 0:51:05.160 --> 0:51:08.680 We love suggest booking suggestions. We get plenty of booking 0:51:09.320 --> 0:51:13.239 people throwing stuff our way. But if there are specific 0:51:14.560 --> 0:51:20.480 candidates or individuals or historians you'd like to hear on 0:51:20.520 --> 0:51:24.520 the podcast, don't be shy. Let us know. Ask Chuck 0:51:24.600 --> 0:51:28.160 at thechucktodcast dot com. Yes, the same place that you 0:51:28.239 --> 0:51:32.680 send all your brilliant pieces of email and analysis and 0:51:32.760 --> 0:51:37.680 questions to me that I'd love to read and absorb. 0:51:37.920 --> 0:51:41.480 But please use that address if you've got any other 0:51:41.520 --> 0:51:43.360 folks you'd like to see as My goal is to 0:51:43.400 --> 0:51:46.719 try to between now and the filing deadline for the 0:51:46.800 --> 0:51:49.120 Iowa Caucuses if they are indeed first in the nation 0:51:49.200 --> 0:51:52.560 come January of twenty twenty seven, I hope everybody of 0:51:52.640 --> 0:51:55.360 consequence that's running for president that I get to spend 0:51:55.600 --> 0:51:59.680 thirty to forty five minutes here with us. So with that, 0:52:01.640 --> 0:52:04.719 one quick addendum before I get to the Toddcast time 0:52:04.760 --> 0:52:08.160 Machine event for this week, and that is it's like 0:52:08.200 --> 0:52:11.000 a little we had a little coda to the Washington 0:52:11.000 --> 0:52:16.040 post event. Will Lewis the publisher in name only, I 0:52:16.040 --> 0:52:18.480 guess because he was nowhere to be found at the 0:52:18.480 --> 0:52:20.960 announcement of the layoffs. He was nowhere to be found 0:52:20.960 --> 0:52:24.560 in frankly the last nine months of the newsroom itself. 0:52:25.480 --> 0:52:28.560 A photo showed up of him at the Super Bowl 0:52:29.239 --> 0:52:31.440 at one of the pre parties on the red carpet 0:52:31.440 --> 0:52:35.960 for NFL honors. And let's say that suddenly an email 0:52:36.600 --> 0:52:41.120 resignation statement showed up and a lot of inboxes come Saturday. 0:52:41.440 --> 0:52:44.800 I believe it was Saturday morning that a very abrupt 0:52:44.880 --> 0:52:47.520 he thanked Jeff Bezos and walked away, had nothing to 0:52:47.560 --> 0:52:49.640 say about the journalists that he oversaw for a couple 0:52:49.680 --> 0:52:52.880 of years. So will lewis cementing his place as the 0:52:53.040 --> 0:52:56.240 single worst publisher in the history of the Washington Post. 0:52:56.360 --> 0:53:00.560 So congratulations mister Lewis on that. And probably you know, 0:53:00.920 --> 0:53:05.000 unhire should be seen in journalism circles. It's completely unhirable, 0:53:05.560 --> 0:53:10.560 just completely unhirable to run. To run an enterprise. He might, 0:53:11.040 --> 0:53:13.880 he might have some smart things to say about trend 0:53:13.880 --> 0:53:16.960 lines and what's happening, but a manager of people and 0:53:17.000 --> 0:53:19.440 a leader of people, he is not. Uh, And I 0:53:19.480 --> 0:53:23.799 think that that is obvious. Look, it's it's it is. 0:53:24.120 --> 0:53:27.200 It's really weird to be sort of, you know, our 0:53:27.280 --> 0:53:31.880 fourth day five without essentially without the Washington Post, because 0:53:31.880 --> 0:53:35.080 I know, yes, there's national reporter still doing good work, 0:53:35.120 --> 0:53:37.120 there's a congressional team that's still doing good work, and 0:53:37.160 --> 0:53:40.560 I don't want to I don't want to shit on them, Okay, 0:53:41.080 --> 0:53:44.240 but you know, the Washington Post is going to slowly, 0:53:45.360 --> 0:53:50.520 essentially fade into more is relevant in Washington as Politico, 0:53:50.560 --> 0:53:54.879 which is there's nothing wrong professional professionally, political punch bowl 0:53:54.920 --> 0:53:58.000 relevant professionally, the Washington Post will be relatant as a 0:53:58.120 --> 0:54:00.680 member and a leader of the of the DMV in 0:54:00.719 --> 0:54:06.120 this community, it's over. That's what's dead, and the idea 0:54:06.160 --> 0:54:08.600 that they don't care about local sports, which is just 0:54:08.600 --> 0:54:11.759 such an important part of the community. So it's in 0:54:11.800 --> 0:54:17.240 that vein that I have a you know, sometimes sometimes 0:54:17.239 --> 0:54:19.480 I have interesting business ideas that I don't share with 0:54:19.520 --> 0:54:22.799 you because I'm working on them myself. And then sometimes 0:54:22.920 --> 0:54:26.200 there are things that are above my pay grade, you know, 0:54:27.360 --> 0:54:30.840 and instead feel like something a challenge that should be 0:54:30.880 --> 0:54:35.120 issued publicly. So here's my public challenge to the three 0:54:35.160 --> 0:54:38.320 major sports owners of the Washington, DC market, Mark Lerner, 0:54:38.320 --> 0:54:41.279 who runs the Nationals, Ted Leons's owner of both the 0:54:41.320 --> 0:54:44.400 Caps and the Wizards, and Josh Harris, owner of the 0:54:44.480 --> 0:54:51.240 Washington Commanders. You three have an enormous interest in having 0:54:51.280 --> 0:54:56.480 a local and regional news organization that is trusted, that 0:54:56.640 --> 0:54:59.960 is frankly a bit of a cheerleader to the local 0:55:00.040 --> 0:55:02.480 sports teams, even if they are will every once in 0:55:02.480 --> 0:55:05.719 a while attack all of you for doing crappy things 0:55:05.719 --> 0:55:07.520 as owners every once in a while because we fans 0:55:07.600 --> 0:55:09.840 might get upset at you because we want to spend 0:55:09.880 --> 0:55:12.279 your money in ways that you don't want to spend 0:55:12.320 --> 0:55:15.640 your money. My tongue is I'm going hard in cheek 0:55:15.680 --> 0:55:18.560 here a little bit, but you get my point. But 0:55:18.600 --> 0:55:22.840 you you know, if your teams don't get attention and 0:55:22.880 --> 0:55:25.239 people don't know what you're up to, then maybe you 0:55:25.239 --> 0:55:27.200 have a harder time selling season tickets and maybe have 0:55:27.239 --> 0:55:29.560 a harder time selling single game tickets, maybe have a 0:55:29.600 --> 0:55:34.279 harder time letting people know that Taylor Swift's coming to 0:55:34.360 --> 0:55:40.600 the new RFK or Bad Bunny's coming to the Capitol 0:55:40.600 --> 0:55:46.240 One Arena. And I say this because both Josh Harris 0:55:46.280 --> 0:55:48.480 and Ted Leones is in particular. I don't know the 0:55:48.520 --> 0:55:52.040 history of Mark Learner's investments, but both have invested in 0:55:52.400 --> 0:55:54.680 media organizations in the past. Josh Harris has been a 0:55:55.560 --> 0:55:59.239 funder and has made money off of investments on new 0:55:59.320 --> 0:56:01.600 startups and the By the way, I want to throw 0:56:01.640 --> 0:56:05.839 my uh Mark iin into this conversation. He's another sort 0:56:05.840 --> 0:56:08.000 of major player in the Washington sports market. He's one 0:56:08.000 --> 0:56:11.759 of the I think minority owners and investors and the 0:56:11.760 --> 0:56:15.120 commanders owns. I think he's very involved in the in 0:56:15.120 --> 0:56:18.040 the professional tennis league that's here, and I believe in 0:56:18.080 --> 0:56:20.279 some of the soccer franchise as well. So and he's 0:56:20.320 --> 0:56:23.160 also very much a what I'd say is a member 0:56:23.160 --> 0:56:26.799 of the Washington community and in some ways of more 0:56:26.880 --> 0:56:31.000 vocal than some of his other fellow sports investors there. 0:56:31.040 --> 0:56:33.440 So I should have included Mark iin into this, but 0:56:34.480 --> 0:56:36.879 I'm saying it publicly. You guys know how to get 0:56:36.880 --> 0:56:38.759 a hold of me, So I'm happy to help out 0:56:38.800 --> 0:56:41.200 in any way possible. But I think it's your your 0:56:41.640 --> 0:56:46.480 best interests to come help fund. Whether it's d MV today, 0:56:46.920 --> 0:56:51.200 maybe it's a sports vertical at first, sports local culture. 0:56:51.719 --> 0:56:58.000 The point is, you guys have the resources to do this. 0:57:00.520 --> 0:57:02.560 Don't hire Will Lewis to do it. That would be 0:57:02.600 --> 0:57:07.920 my number one piece of advice. But beyond that, I 0:57:07.960 --> 0:57:10.920 hope you have an open door for whether it's myself, 0:57:10.960 --> 0:57:13.480 whether it's my friend Kara Swisher. And speaking of Kara Swisher, 0:57:13.520 --> 0:57:16.000 she's my guest this week on my Newsphere program Sunday 0:57:16.040 --> 0:57:18.360 Night with Chuck Todd. And I'll just put it this way. 0:57:19.680 --> 0:57:23.320 If you enjoy hearing sentences that include Jeff Bezos in 0:57:23.360 --> 0:57:25.720 the F word, you're gonna love this Kara Swisher interview. 0:57:27.120 --> 0:57:29.320 She doesn't hold anything back. She's got a lot of 0:57:29.320 --> 0:57:32.200 strong opinions, and she knows these people better than any 0:57:32.440 --> 0:57:34.760 other person. And by the way, if you want to 0:57:34.800 --> 0:57:37.360 know for care, if it's personal, Yes, it is her 0:57:37.400 --> 0:57:43.320 first job, mailroom inside the Washington Post, so it's personal 0:57:43.360 --> 0:57:45.919 for her. But she has a lot of smart ideas here. 0:57:45.960 --> 0:57:49.040 And I think we and it's not just about the 0:57:49.080 --> 0:57:51.280 Washington Post that we spent We talk about the tech 0:57:51.320 --> 0:57:54.240 titans in general and whether there are any good guys 0:57:54.320 --> 0:57:57.200 in Silicon Valley. Here's the good news. She thinks there's 0:57:57.200 --> 0:57:59.520 at least one good guy there. I'm not going to 0:57:59.560 --> 0:58:03.040 tell you is here. Go check it out on newsphere. 0:58:03.280 --> 0:58:06.080 So just wanted to do that little coda on the 0:58:06.160 --> 0:58:08.000 Washington Post. Given how much time I spent on it 0:58:08.080 --> 0:58:13.800 last week, it's still pretty painful to realize that what 0:58:14.000 --> 0:58:15.800 just happened to the Washington Post, and then to see 0:58:15.800 --> 0:58:18.440 the will Lewis thing. I mean, it was deserved, right. 0:58:18.520 --> 0:58:23.400 Whether Bezos fired him out of just a pr pr necessity, 0:58:24.120 --> 0:58:26.480 it was necessary. It gives Matt Murray a chance at 0:58:26.600 --> 0:58:31.200 maybe rallying the remaining troops there. And look, I'll say 0:58:31.200 --> 0:58:35.040 what I said last week, I feel for him on this, 0:58:35.160 --> 0:58:36.880 and you know, some of you look, he made his 0:58:36.880 --> 0:58:43.160 own bed, so you know, yes, but he's there to 0:58:43.240 --> 0:58:48.040 execute strategy. And the fact that the owner and the 0:58:48.080 --> 0:58:50.680 publisher didn't have the guts to be the face of 0:58:50.720 --> 0:58:53.240 this tells you who they are, tells you a lot 0:58:53.240 --> 0:58:57.360 about their character. And that's what I think has been 0:58:57.600 --> 0:58:59.800 the most damning thing about all of this. All Right, 0:59:01.080 --> 0:59:10.680 let's go back into time. It's time machine time. So 0:59:11.240 --> 0:59:14.560 where are we going in history? I kind of want 0:59:14.600 --> 0:59:17.480 sound effects, right, we'll get there. So where are we going? 0:59:17.560 --> 0:59:20.959 We're going to go to February eleventh, nineteen seventy nine, 0:59:21.760 --> 0:59:26.760 It's the day the Iranian monarchy collapsed. The Shaw's government fell, 0:59:26.880 --> 0:59:30.200 military declared neutrality in Iran, and a revolution that had 0:59:30.200 --> 0:59:32.919 been building for more than a century finally broke through. 0:59:33.480 --> 0:59:36.120 What followed was the creation of the Islamic Republic and 0:59:36.200 --> 0:59:41.040 authoritarian theocracy, one of the most consequential ruptures in US 0:59:41.160 --> 0:59:45.480 foreign policy, still shaping the Middle East today, global energy markets, 0:59:45.520 --> 0:59:50.200 and American politics. And as questions once again swirl about 0:59:50.240 --> 0:59:55.400 the future of Iran's regime, it's worth remembering something clearly 0:59:55.480 --> 0:59:58.080 at the outset as we go into this time machine. 0:59:58.080 --> 1:00:00.840 The Iranian Revolution did not come out of nowhere, and 1:00:00.920 --> 1:00:04.280 America was not a bystander in it all right. So 1:00:04.360 --> 1:00:07.720 to understand how we got to February nineteen seventy nine 1:00:07.880 --> 1:00:12.640 and the Ayatola Khamane becoming essentially a dictator of Iran, 1:00:13.200 --> 1:00:16.080 we have to go back a lot further. Iran didn't 1:00:16.120 --> 1:00:19.200 suddenly appear in the twentieth century. For thousands of years, 1:00:19.240 --> 1:00:21.320 of course, it was known to the outside world as Persian, 1:00:21.760 --> 1:00:27.400 one of the oldest continuous state traditions on Earth, and 1:00:27.440 --> 1:00:30.200 the monarchy in Persia was not some modern invention either. 1:00:30.320 --> 1:00:32.520 By the time of World War one. Iran had been 1:00:32.600 --> 1:00:37.720 ruled by kings for centuries, most recently under the Kajar dynasty, 1:00:38.360 --> 1:00:41.760 which took power in seventeen ninety four. In fact, even 1:00:41.800 --> 1:00:45.480 the title Sha itself matters here. It's not Islamic. It's 1:00:45.480 --> 1:00:48.800 a Persian word, ancient Persian, and it dates back more 1:00:48.840 --> 1:00:53.920 than twenty five hundred years. The fuller imperior title is Shahanshah, 1:00:54.400 --> 1:00:59.040 which literally means king of kings. So when Iranians overthrew 1:00:59.080 --> 1:01:02.680 the Shaw eighteen seventy nine, they weren't just rejecting a 1:01:02.720 --> 1:01:05.760 modern autocrat, and by the way, that last Shaw was 1:01:05.840 --> 1:01:08.600 an autocrat, I'll get to that. They were rejecting a 1:01:08.640 --> 1:01:13.160 pre Islamic royal tradition that stretched back to the antiquity era. 1:01:13.880 --> 1:01:17.040 This wasn't just political upheaval. It was a civilization break. 1:01:17.880 --> 1:01:21.320 In nineteen thirty five, Iran's ruler asked foreign governments to 1:01:21.480 --> 1:01:25.440 stop using Persia and adopt the name Iran instead. It 1:01:25.480 --> 1:01:29.200 was a nationalist gesture meant to assert sovereignty and create 1:01:29.200 --> 1:01:32.800 a modern identity. It wasn't the creation of a new country, 1:01:32.840 --> 1:01:34.560 but it was a demand to be seen on its 1:01:34.600 --> 1:01:39.479 own terms. So we all need that little history lesson 1:01:39.480 --> 1:01:41.840 every now and then, So now we place a rain 1:01:41.880 --> 1:01:44.120 into its regional context and just sort of a little 1:01:44.120 --> 1:01:47.160 bit of the backstory here on Iran. In the early 1:01:47.160 --> 1:01:50.440 twentieth century, during World War One, Persia was officially neutral, 1:01:51.440 --> 1:01:54.640 but neutrality never did protect it as a country. Its 1:01:54.720 --> 1:01:58.320 territory was repeatedly violated by the Russians, the British, and 1:01:58.400 --> 1:02:01.640 at times even the Ottoman forces. Persia was never part 1:02:01.680 --> 1:02:04.160 of the Ottoman Empire. That's an important note. Historically it 1:02:04.200 --> 1:02:07.880 was often the chief rival to the Ottomans, particularly along 1:02:07.960 --> 1:02:11.920 sectarian lines. We had the Sunni Ottoman rule versus the 1:02:11.960 --> 1:02:16.760 Shia Persian identity right Sunni Shia, something that's been there 1:02:16.840 --> 1:02:20.520 from nearly the beginning of Islam. The lesson Iranians absorbed 1:02:20.560 --> 1:02:23.760 from World War One, though, was a harsh one. Neutrality 1:02:24.320 --> 1:02:27.600 does not stop great powers from using your country as 1:02:27.640 --> 1:02:31.760 a chessboard. So at the same time, the Ottoman Empire 1:02:31.800 --> 1:02:33.400 collapsed at the end of the war, and it gave 1:02:33.440 --> 1:02:39.480 birth largely through a European mandate system new states like Iraq, Syria, 1:02:39.800 --> 1:02:43.800 and Lebanon. Right. Iraq, for example, emerged as a British 1:02:43.880 --> 1:02:47.360 backed monarchy in the early nineteen twenties, and it gained 1:02:47.400 --> 1:02:52.080 full independence in nineteen thirty two. So Iran is sitting 1:02:52.080 --> 1:02:56.439 there watching its neighbors be invented by outside powers while 1:02:56.480 --> 1:03:00.000 struggling to preserve its own independence in a world dominated 1:03:00.280 --> 1:03:06.800 by empires. What's interesting is this Iran did not passively 1:03:06.880 --> 1:03:10.680 accept monarchy as destiny. In fact, just the opposite. In 1:03:10.760 --> 1:03:17.240 nineteen oh six, Persia experienced a constitutional revolution. It produced 1:03:17.240 --> 1:03:22.360 a written constitution, a parliament. The majills, I hope I 1:03:22.400 --> 1:03:26.280 get that jealous and I have no doubt, and I 1:03:27.640 --> 1:03:30.400 will mess up some of these pronunciations of some of 1:03:30.440 --> 1:03:33.400 these Persian words. My apologies, but essentially it was a 1:03:33.400 --> 1:03:36.960 parliament and limits on royal authority. This was one of 1:03:36.960 --> 1:03:39.720 the earliest constitutional movements in the Middle East. There's a 1:03:39.800 --> 1:03:44.800 real small d democratic tradition inside of Iran. Iran had 1:03:44.800 --> 1:03:49.240 a They did this decades before many of its neighbors, 1:03:50.040 --> 1:03:53.480 but it was fragile. Iranian politics became defined by a 1:03:53.480 --> 1:03:59.960 persistent tension monarchy, secular reformers, religious authorities, and foreign powers, 1:04:00.360 --> 1:04:03.400 and they were all always pulling around in different direction. 1:04:04.160 --> 1:04:08.320 Tension has never disappeared. It simply evolves in different ways 1:04:08.400 --> 1:04:10.840 over times. And we're seeing it play out at the moment. 1:04:11.600 --> 1:04:14.800 So in the nineteen twenties you had Resa Shah pa Lavi. 1:04:15.920 --> 1:04:20.520 He sees power and eventually crowned himself. Shaw His project 1:04:20.600 --> 1:04:27.480 was modernization, centralizing the state, building infrastructure, weakening the religious authority, 1:04:27.560 --> 1:04:34.240 clerical authority, and enforcing secularism. But it was modernization from above, 1:04:34.440 --> 1:04:40.960 enforced by coercion. Parliamentary democracy was weakened, political pluralism shrank, 1:04:42.160 --> 1:04:45.440 the monarchy reasserted itself as the center of gravity. So 1:04:45.960 --> 1:04:47.840 we can look at it and say, well, great, they 1:04:47.840 --> 1:04:51.640 were modernized, they were westernizing, but they were essentially beating 1:04:51.720 --> 1:04:56.160 people into modernizing. Right. It was not a democratic move 1:04:56.240 --> 1:05:00.760 to modernization, and it meant that Resia sh Shaw's project 1:05:00.840 --> 1:05:04.480 also came across as nationalists. He was attempting to reduce 1:05:04.520 --> 1:05:08.560 British and Russian influence. Of course, that independence would not last. 1:05:10.480 --> 1:05:13.160 The most important Hinge point before in nineteen seventy nine 1:05:13.200 --> 1:05:17.360 comes in the early fifties. By then Iran had another Shaw, 1:05:17.720 --> 1:05:22.800 Riza Shaw's son, Mohammed Riza Pahlavi, and a democratic chosen 1:05:22.840 --> 1:05:27.320 prime minister by the name of Mohammed Mozadek. Well, Mozadek 1:05:27.520 --> 1:05:31.440 the prime minister moved to nationalize Iran's oil industry. At 1:05:31.480 --> 1:05:33.680 the time, it was an attempt to challenge the British 1:05:33.680 --> 1:05:40.080 dominance and over their oil economy and asserting their own sovereignty. Well, 1:05:40.160 --> 1:05:44.400 guess what the Brits panicked called Warfares intensified and in 1:05:44.480 --> 1:05:48.439 nineteen fifty three, the United States and the UK back 1:05:48.520 --> 1:05:52.920 the coup that removed the prime minister. So here's what 1:05:52.960 --> 1:05:56.800 happened next. The coup didn't just restore the Shaw, it 1:05:56.880 --> 1:06:02.000 also transformed him from a constitutional monarch into the central 1:06:02.080 --> 1:06:05.720 pillar of the state. And so yes, the United States 1:06:05.720 --> 1:06:09.840 effectively helped rip up a fragile parliamentary democracy in favor 1:06:09.880 --> 1:06:13.880 of a more centralized, more authoritarian and at the time, 1:06:13.920 --> 1:06:18.000 because this was the Cold War, a more pro Western monarchy. 1:06:18.840 --> 1:06:21.680 It was what was in America's national interests that mattered 1:06:21.720 --> 1:06:25.640 more than what was in the small d democracy interests. 1:06:26.160 --> 1:06:28.400 This is an important point to understand. This is why 1:06:29.280 --> 1:06:31.520 a lot of things we did in the fifties and 1:06:31.640 --> 1:06:34.040 sixties in the name of the Cold War and dealing 1:06:34.040 --> 1:06:37.640 with the Soviets created a lot of anti americanism around 1:06:37.720 --> 1:06:41.280 the world. This is one of them. So from Washington's 1:06:41.280 --> 1:06:43.840 perspective at the time, right, Hey, this was all about 1:06:43.840 --> 1:06:49.320 stability and anti communism, pure and symbol From Tehran's perspective 1:06:49.400 --> 1:06:52.960 and the perspective of quite a few individuals, it was 1:06:52.960 --> 1:06:55.760 about lost sovereignty. So from that moment on, the Shah 1:06:55.760 --> 1:06:59.920 in the United States became politically intertwined in the Iranian imagination. 1:07:00.520 --> 1:07:05.400 Opposition to the Shah increasingly meant opposition to America. And 1:07:05.440 --> 1:07:08.400 this is where the long fuze toward nineteen seventy nine 1:07:08.520 --> 1:07:13.720 is let the Shaw modernized rapidly, expanding education, advancing women's rights, 1:07:13.720 --> 1:07:17.440 pouring oil wealth into development. All that's good stuff. But 1:07:17.520 --> 1:07:21.280 the modernization was paired with repression. There was censorship, a 1:07:21.360 --> 1:07:25.920 powerful secret police. They crushed descent, and they were really 1:07:25.960 --> 1:07:29.240 tough on those that were overly religious. And it all 1:07:29.280 --> 1:07:33.800 came with visible American back in Regionally, Orion stood apart 1:07:33.920 --> 1:07:37.160 because while you had Arab states experiencing cups and military 1:07:37.240 --> 1:07:40.040 rule and pan Arab nationalism all over the place, Egypt 1:07:40.120 --> 1:07:44.320 under Nassar Syrian, Iraq under the Baptist regimes, Iran was 1:07:44.400 --> 1:07:48.280 actually the pillar of America's Middle East strategy in the 1:07:48.320 --> 1:07:54.120 Gulf region. That alignment bought power, and it also planted 1:07:54.120 --> 1:07:57.640 some rage. And this is the environment in which a 1:07:57.680 --> 1:08:03.720 man named Ayatola rulej Hala Komene. Yes that Komenee emerges 1:08:03.760 --> 1:08:09.480 as a symbol of the resistance. Here's an important clarification 1:08:09.520 --> 1:08:15.160 in history. Komene did not flee Iran. Comeni was arrested, released, 1:08:15.360 --> 1:08:18.400 and then banished from the country. In the early sixties, 1:08:18.479 --> 1:08:22.639 Comene openly denounced the Shaw's reforms and crucially attacked Iran's 1:08:22.680 --> 1:08:26.519 relationship with the United States, particularly laws that granted US 1:08:26.640 --> 1:08:31.080 personnel legal immunity inside of Iran. Remember this came up 1:08:31.080 --> 1:08:35.640 again during our in the attempt to build a democracy 1:08:35.640 --> 1:08:40.960 in Iraq that giving immunity to outside forces is never 1:08:41.000 --> 1:08:44.679 popular domestically wherever you are. Well. The Shaw had options 1:08:44.680 --> 1:08:46.800 and what to do with Komene. He could imprison him. 1:08:47.000 --> 1:08:49.400 He could have executed him, or he could have silenced 1:08:49.439 --> 1:08:53.040 him another way. Executing him risk turning him into a martyr. 1:08:53.840 --> 1:08:56.479 So the Shaw decided to expel. First it was to Turkey, 1:08:57.439 --> 1:08:59.640 then it was to Iraq, and eventually he'd end up 1:08:59.640 --> 1:09:04.040 in France. Well, exile was a mistake because while exile 1:09:04.120 --> 1:09:07.519 was meant as an attempt to neutralize komene Instead, he 1:09:07.600 --> 1:09:12.599 kind of professionalized his movement and gave him gave him 1:09:12.640 --> 1:09:17.400 more rhetorical power from Paris. In exile, Komeney gained something 1:09:17.439 --> 1:09:20.840 no opposition figure inside Iran could safely have had at 1:09:20.840 --> 1:09:25.360 the time, global media access without fear of arrest. So 1:09:25.439 --> 1:09:27.960 he unifies the opposition, and there was a by the 1:09:28.000 --> 1:09:30.960 way the opposition in Iran was dispersed. Here wasn't just 1:09:31.640 --> 1:09:36.920 the theocrats that were against him, right, So Coomane unifies 1:09:36.960 --> 1:09:39.400 the opposition and he frames it as a resistance not 1:09:39.479 --> 1:09:43.000 just on religious terms, but also moral terms, and he 1:09:43.080 --> 1:09:48.439 positioned clerical rule as authentic national liberation. So on February first, 1:09:48.520 --> 1:09:53.240 nineteen seventy nine, Comeni returns to Tehran to thousands of 1:09:53.320 --> 1:09:57.040 cheering crowds. Ten days later his February eleventh, and the 1:09:57.080 --> 1:10:00.360 monarchy officially collapses. The revolution that toppled the SHAW at 1:10:00.360 --> 1:10:03.920 the moment was broad based. There were secular liberals, there 1:10:03.960 --> 1:10:10.320 were leftists, students, merchants, clerics. But the revolution didn't end 1:10:10.680 --> 1:10:14.479 when the regimes fall. They end when power consolidates, and 1:10:14.520 --> 1:10:19.040 the most organized faction was the clerical one, and they won. 1:10:19.760 --> 1:10:22.040 So what followed was not just a change of rulers, 1:10:22.240 --> 1:10:25.839 but a new governing model. They called it an Islamic republic, 1:10:26.600 --> 1:10:30.280 a theocracy fused with state power, something the region and 1:10:30.320 --> 1:10:36.040 the world actually had never seen before. Now you may 1:10:36.080 --> 1:10:38.800 be wondering when did the hostage crisis begin. So, the 1:10:38.920 --> 1:10:42.800 US embassy hostage crisis actually didn't happen immediately with the 1:10:42.800 --> 1:10:45.200 start of the revolution in February of seventy nine. It 1:10:45.240 --> 1:10:48.080 came nine months later, in November of seventy nine. But 1:10:48.160 --> 1:10:51.120 it flowed directly from everything that came before, memories of 1:10:51.160 --> 1:10:56.080 fifty three, fear of American interference and the revolutionary need 1:10:56.160 --> 1:10:58.639 to define itself against an external enemy, and the United 1:10:58.680 --> 1:11:01.680 States was an easy target because of our history with 1:11:01.800 --> 1:11:05.000 the country, and from that moment on US Iran relations 1:11:05.040 --> 1:11:09.559 froze into hostility. So what lessons should we take away 1:11:09.560 --> 1:11:11.400 from this, Well, we're in the middle of something here 1:11:11.400 --> 1:11:14.960 that we may help foment another revolution in Iran. We 1:11:14.960 --> 1:11:17.200 may be more active on this one, as active as 1:11:17.200 --> 1:11:18.960 we were in nineteen fifty three. Now this time we 1:11:19.000 --> 1:11:21.000 may be on the side of the people. We were 1:11:21.000 --> 1:11:22.559 not on the side of the people in fifty three. 1:11:23.160 --> 1:11:24.400 We were not on the side of the people in 1:11:24.439 --> 1:11:26.439 seventy nine. This time we might be on the side 1:11:26.479 --> 1:11:28.599 of the people. That's the one thing that's different here, 1:11:28.880 --> 1:11:31.760 and maybe that means a different outcome, But it is 1:11:31.800 --> 1:11:36.640 a warning about foreign intervention, right, and modernization without legitimacy, 1:11:36.800 --> 1:11:40.280 and what happens when democracy is sacrificed for stability. And 1:11:40.320 --> 1:11:42.360 in fact, when you hear the story of the Shah 1:11:42.360 --> 1:11:44.680 and the fifties and sixties, I can't help but think 1:11:44.680 --> 1:11:48.479 of NBS in Saudi Arabia. Right, Oh, hey, there's good news, 1:11:48.520 --> 1:11:51.800 he's modernizing, he's given women rights. But at the same time, 1:11:51.800 --> 1:11:56.360 there's still censorship. Right, there's still very little, you know, 1:11:56.400 --> 1:12:01.160 there's still terrible human rights violations, particularly when anybody violates 1:12:01.479 --> 1:12:04.880 the law. So it is there's a lot of lessons 1:12:04.920 --> 1:12:07.880 to take away from this So America. We can't say 1:12:07.960 --> 1:12:10.880 it created the Iranian revolution alone, but it did help 1:12:10.960 --> 1:12:14.479 destroy the alternative that might have prevented it. And that's 1:12:14.479 --> 1:12:16.080 the hardest left in them all. When you weaken a 1:12:16.120 --> 1:12:20.439 democracy to protect your own interests. We actively weakened a 1:12:20.479 --> 1:12:26.720 democracy in nineteen fifty three. You don't eliminate the instability, 1:12:26.840 --> 1:12:32.160 you simply delay it. So as we decide how involved, 1:12:32.160 --> 1:12:35.679 we're going to get and what's happening in Iran. And 1:12:35.760 --> 1:12:38.600 you know, look, I look at you. I think that 1:12:38.920 --> 1:12:44.000 whenever we're on the side a small d democracy, that 1:12:44.120 --> 1:12:46.599 usually ends up at a better place than when we're 1:12:46.640 --> 1:12:49.160 just on the side of helping somebody who's just simply 1:12:49.760 --> 1:12:52.880 on our side in a larger fight against some other 1:12:53.080 --> 1:12:57.680 foreign power. And the Cold War created those types of relationships. 1:12:58.040 --> 1:13:01.480 The fear of China is creating those type transactional relationships. 1:13:01.840 --> 1:13:05.120 But these transactional relationships, and this is right. Donald Trump 1:13:05.200 --> 1:13:07.360 wants to make America. You know, when he talks about 1:13:07.400 --> 1:13:09.519 making America great again, he wants to go back to 1:13:09.720 --> 1:13:18.720 nineteen fifty style kind of imperialistic like foreign policy approach, right, 1:13:19.439 --> 1:13:22.000 and all of that bitness in the ass in Latin America, 1:13:22.400 --> 1:13:25.080 all of this is bitness in the ass in the 1:13:25.080 --> 1:13:29.960 Middle East. Transactional politics without some sort of small the 1:13:30.200 --> 1:13:35.680 democratic moral code is never going to create long term 1:13:35.720 --> 1:13:40.080 stability or security for us here in the United States. 1:13:40.520 --> 1:13:53.240 So with that, there's your time machine. All right, let's 1:13:53.240 --> 1:13:59.240 get to some questions. Ask Chuck, if Trump continues to 1:13:59.280 --> 1:14:01.080 claim you when the twenty twenty election, wouldn't that make 1:14:01.080 --> 1:14:05.280 the potential twenty twenty four run unconstitutional two determinants. I 1:14:05.280 --> 1:14:07.320 love how you're thinking. If you somehow approved he was 1:14:07.680 --> 1:14:09.760 the rightful winner in twenty twenty, wouldn't that undermine the 1:14:09.800 --> 1:14:12.000 legality of a future term and even weaken his legal 1:14:12.040 --> 1:14:14.439 protections side to the presidency just seems like a self 1:14:14.479 --> 1:14:19.640 defeating argument. You know, this reminds me of a of 1:14:19.680 --> 1:14:22.800 a of a rule I used to have I meet 1:14:22.840 --> 1:14:25.000 the press meetings with my staff, when we have these 1:14:25.080 --> 1:14:28.920 daily meetings about the editorial day, I'd say we've banned 1:14:29.080 --> 1:14:36.320 logic in the Trump era. And because what you're making, 1:14:36.520 --> 1:14:40.640 you're taking a news story and applying logic to it, 1:14:40.680 --> 1:14:44.000 and say, well, doesn't this mean this Donald Trump has 1:14:44.080 --> 1:14:48.000 never allowed logic to get in the way of a 1:14:48.040 --> 1:14:51.320 good narrative, right of a good owned the libs mean 1:14:51.560 --> 1:14:56.439 of a good attempt at not having to admit defeat right. 1:14:56.920 --> 1:15:03.639 And so everything you're saying is correct. But that isn't 1:15:03.680 --> 1:15:06.000 what he's up to here, right, We know what he's 1:15:06.160 --> 1:15:09.880 really up to here. This is just continuing to try 1:15:09.880 --> 1:15:17.480 to continuing to try to sort of undermine more legitimacy 1:15:17.479 --> 1:15:20.439 of more institutions, and the more institutions I mean, if 1:15:20.439 --> 1:15:24.479 he is able to fully undermine the entire election system, 1:15:24.479 --> 1:15:27.479 which is what he's attempting to do here with twenty twenty, 1:15:28.880 --> 1:15:33.840 then everything he would do to question the midterms and 1:15:33.920 --> 1:15:40.920 anything like that becomes then natural or normalized because of 1:15:40.920 --> 1:15:42.559 what he's done with twenty twenty. So this is what 1:15:42.600 --> 1:15:45.439 makes what he's doing so dangerous. Here. He's trying to 1:15:45.479 --> 1:15:49.599 sort of legitimize interfering with future elections, right, and he's 1:15:49.720 --> 1:15:54.360 desperate to try to find even you know, even the 1:15:54.400 --> 1:15:58.479 illusion of evidence to reinforce his beliefs about what happened 1:15:58.520 --> 1:16:03.000 twenty twenty. And they look, it's clear they're manufacturing pretext here. 1:16:02.160 --> 1:16:07.479 They have not legitimized a single fact. I mean, you 1:16:07.560 --> 1:16:11.200 go to this about twenty twenty. He's only gone after Georgia. 1:16:11.280 --> 1:16:14.240 By the way, let's I've gone in another place. Let's 1:16:14.240 --> 1:16:17.360 say he magically somehow figures out that he won Georgia, 1:16:18.960 --> 1:16:20.960 he still doesn't have enough electoral votes to prove that 1:16:21.000 --> 1:16:23.880 he won in twenty twenty. There's still other states. He 1:16:23.920 --> 1:16:25.840 hasn't been able to find the votes in Arizona, he 1:16:25.840 --> 1:16:27.479 hasn't been able to find the votes in Nevada. He 1:16:27.479 --> 1:16:29.120 hasn't be able to find the votes in Wisconsin, he 1:16:29.120 --> 1:16:30.680 hasn't been able to find the votes in Michigan, he 1:16:30.720 --> 1:16:34.120 hasn't made to find the votes in Pennsylvania. So but 1:16:34.200 --> 1:16:37.040 again that's logic. This is not about logic, right, I mean, 1:16:37.080 --> 1:16:40.320 he thinks if he can somehow find anything that becomes 1:16:40.360 --> 1:16:46.439 believable behind his delusional followers on this, it allows him 1:16:46.520 --> 1:16:51.240 not to declare any victory about twenty twenty, but then 1:16:51.280 --> 1:16:56.360 he will use that as a way to legitimize likely 1:16:56.439 --> 1:16:59.240 using the government to interfere in the actual elections themselves 1:16:59.240 --> 1:17:02.760 in twenty twenty six, twenty twenty eight. Now I say 1:17:02.760 --> 1:17:04.920 that in that I still don't believe he can effectively 1:17:04.960 --> 1:17:07.040 do that. I think there's enough checks and balances in 1:17:07.080 --> 1:17:09.240 the states. I think it's not going to happen. And 1:17:09.280 --> 1:17:13.920 I think that, you know, I vacillate between being worried 1:17:13.920 --> 1:17:15.880 and laughing at these attempts that he's doing. I think 1:17:15.880 --> 1:17:19.640 he's making just an absolute fool of himself. And more importantly, 1:17:19.920 --> 1:17:22.880 I mean, I mean literally the laughing stock of the 1:17:22.880 --> 1:17:25.800 intelligence community is Tulsa Gabbert, Right, but she has been 1:17:26.920 --> 1:17:31.479 I will say that she must be beyond humiliation which 1:17:31.520 --> 1:17:34.439 means she has her own sort of delusions about all 1:17:34.479 --> 1:17:42.360 of this. But it's it's whenever you apply logic to 1:17:42.400 --> 1:17:45.719 anyone of Trump's arguments, they fall apart completely, which means 1:17:45.960 --> 1:17:49.760 it's never been about logic all right. Next question comes 1:17:49.760 --> 1:17:51.840 from Luke Hey. Thanks for tackling the issue of sports betting. 1:17:51.840 --> 1:17:53.760 I've seen it devastate families, and I refuse to work 1:17:53.760 --> 1:17:56.759 for gambling platforms because of the ethical concerns. My question 1:17:56.840 --> 1:17:59.439 is about professional ethics. It people with integrity keep quitting 1:17:59.520 --> 1:18:03.160 problematic institutions. Do those spaces just get worse? Is it 1:18:03.200 --> 1:18:05.320 better to stay and try to limit the damage from within? 1:18:05.720 --> 1:18:07.800 I'm torn between sticking to my moral line or trying 1:18:07.800 --> 1:18:11.160 to be sand in the gears from the inside. Loops, Well, 1:18:11.280 --> 1:18:15.719 welcome to what a lot of prosecutors, career prosecutors are 1:18:16.120 --> 1:18:19.400 contemplating at the Justice Department, What a lot of career 1:18:19.479 --> 1:18:23.919 form policy folks are thinking about at the State Department. 1:18:24.240 --> 1:18:28.720 What many career military particularly for one, two and three 1:18:28.760 --> 1:18:35.160 star generals, high ranking admirals. You know that this is 1:18:36.760 --> 1:18:44.400 this is this is a huge dilemma, you know, I don't. 1:18:44.439 --> 1:18:46.160 I think everybody's got their own line, So I'm not 1:18:46.160 --> 1:18:49.880 going to tell you what your line should be. I'll 1:18:49.920 --> 1:18:52.000 just tell you what my line is. If I feel 1:18:52.040 --> 1:18:56.680 like I can be effective, not just being sand in 1:18:56.720 --> 1:19:00.559 the gears right and doing you know, feeling like I 1:19:00.560 --> 1:19:03.160 have to sneakily upend things, but I feel like I 1:19:03.200 --> 1:19:07.600 can turn the tide, I can report what needs to 1:19:07.640 --> 1:19:11.040 be reported or whatever it is, then it is worth 1:19:11.080 --> 1:19:14.479 sticking around. If you feel like your position can prevent 1:19:16.479 --> 1:19:19.840 the worst things to happen, and you say to yourself, well, hey, 1:19:20.720 --> 1:19:22.519 you know, I just have to do it for nine 1:19:22.560 --> 1:19:25.800 months until we get new leadership. Right, That's why it 1:19:26.000 --> 1:19:30.000 to me. I would advise somebody at the Justice Department, 1:19:30.000 --> 1:19:32.320 in somebody the state department to stick it out right, 1:19:32.800 --> 1:19:34.479 believe in the democracy. You don't have to believe in 1:19:34.560 --> 1:19:37.160 the administration. You can believe in the democracy that there 1:19:37.200 --> 1:19:41.280 will be you know that bad There are good stewards 1:19:41.320 --> 1:19:45.840 and bad stewards, but there'll be another steward. Because I 1:19:45.880 --> 1:19:48.080 do think on the political side and in the public 1:19:48.120 --> 1:19:51.559 service sector, the more good actors that leave, they will 1:19:51.560 --> 1:19:53.840 only be filled with bad actors and it will only 1:19:53.880 --> 1:19:57.559 get worse than it might be irreparable. Right, So on 1:19:57.640 --> 1:20:06.080 the private sector side. I think it's a harder call, right. 1:20:07.000 --> 1:20:09.160 It's one thing to be stand in the gears to 1:20:09.200 --> 1:20:12.599 another thing. If you're literally working against the business interests 1:20:12.600 --> 1:20:16.719 of the company, and if they're not committing illegal acts, 1:20:17.200 --> 1:20:19.240 then I think it is better to quit on moral 1:20:19.280 --> 1:20:22.519 and ethical grounds, but do so publicly say why you're 1:20:22.560 --> 1:20:28.640 doing it. To do it silently, then it's ineffective. You know, 1:20:28.800 --> 1:20:31.559 speak out, become a whistleblower, right, become the person that 1:20:31.600 --> 1:20:33.560 worked for the tobacco companies to talk about all that 1:20:33.880 --> 1:20:36.400 you know, or the person that worked at Meta and 1:20:36.760 --> 1:20:40.320 saw everything that Facebook was doing to sort of weaponize 1:20:40.520 --> 1:20:44.880 the likes and the algorithms and stuff. You know. But 1:20:44.920 --> 1:20:47.679 I guess that's where I would go. I think it's 1:20:48.320 --> 1:20:51.240 I think if you're in the if you work for government, 1:20:52.920 --> 1:20:55.920 I think you're obligated to stick it out. I think 1:20:55.960 --> 1:20:58.240 if you work in the private sector and you have 1:20:58.280 --> 1:21:02.479 ethical and moral quandary, is I think then it's you know, 1:21:02.560 --> 1:21:10.719 I probably would be on the side of make it. 1:21:10.720 --> 1:21:12.759 It would be easier for me to support you walking 1:21:13.000 --> 1:21:15.760 than not walking, But I wouldn't do it quietly. If 1:21:15.800 --> 1:21:18.200 you want to, if you want to try to effect change, 1:21:18.280 --> 1:21:25.120 you know now if there can if you think you 1:21:25.160 --> 1:21:27.920 know there is a reason to stay is if you 1:21:27.920 --> 1:21:30.080 think they're doing something illegal and you need to gather 1:21:30.160 --> 1:21:34.679 evidence and and and become a whistleblower. That's that's yet 1:21:34.680 --> 1:21:39.439 another motivation to potentially stay if you truly believe something 1:21:39.479 --> 1:21:47.519 illegal is taking place. All right, appreciate the question, Luke, 1:21:47.560 --> 1:21:51.400 and you know there's no easy answers on those things. 1:21:51.720 --> 1:21:53.519 Next question comes from Tyler. Hey, I saw your video 1:21:54.000 --> 1:21:56.200 on the state's Democrats might put in play by twenty 1:21:56.200 --> 1:21:58.320 thirty two. I'm curious why Mississippi wasn't on your list. 1:21:58.320 --> 1:22:01.320 It's clearly it's nearly for percent African American and often 1:22:01.360 --> 1:22:04.080 shows more Blue counties than other Southern states. Couldn't increasing 1:22:04.120 --> 1:22:06.920 registration and turn out among African American voters make it competitive. 1:22:06.920 --> 1:22:10.040 Would love to hear your thoughts. I think I did 1:22:10.080 --> 1:22:12.800 mention that Mississippi's on my next round of lists. I 1:22:12.800 --> 1:22:15.400 think I believe it's in that and as you know, 1:22:15.520 --> 1:22:21.000 I keep talking about the Mississippi as Democrats search for 1:22:21.080 --> 1:22:23.719 more Senate seats to put in play in the twenty 1:22:23.760 --> 1:22:25.840 six cycle that I think Mississippi should be one of 1:22:25.880 --> 1:22:29.000 those states for all it's exactly the reason you lay 1:22:29.000 --> 1:22:31.400 out right. I think Mississippi, into a lesser extent, South 1:22:31.400 --> 1:22:33.920 Carolina is the other state in the South where there's 1:22:33.920 --> 1:22:40.080 clearly an un activated African American vote, either underregistrated in 1:22:40.120 --> 1:22:43.280 the rural counties in Mississippi and South Carolina or just 1:22:43.520 --> 1:22:46.960 under campaigned. Right, I've I've spent a lot of time 1:22:48.680 --> 1:22:52.160 a couple of cycles ago, we were doing some some 1:22:52.240 --> 1:22:56.120 of our counties to watch and before the twenty sixteen 1:22:56.200 --> 1:22:58.040 cycle or for the twenty twenty cycle, one of the 1:22:58.080 --> 1:23:00.240 counties I wanted to focus on was one of the 1:23:00.280 --> 1:23:03.840 African rural African American majority African American counties on the 1:23:03.880 --> 1:23:07.519 border of North and South Carolina. And how that the 1:23:07.560 --> 1:23:10.640 one time Barack Obama that Democrats carried North Carolina in 1:23:10.680 --> 1:23:13.040 the twenty first century. Barack Obama was on the ballot 1:23:13.120 --> 1:23:16.160 the first time, and he did a great job of 1:23:16.200 --> 1:23:18.880 activating the rural African American vote. North Carolina in twenty 1:23:18.920 --> 1:23:20.840 oh eight did not do as good of a job 1:23:20.840 --> 1:23:22.640 in twenty twelve, and they didn't carry the state, but 1:23:22.640 --> 1:23:25.080 they did in twenty oh eight. The point is, I 1:23:25.200 --> 1:23:28.680 do think that one of the reasons why Democrats have 1:23:28.760 --> 1:23:33.000 been slow at seeing the opportunity in Mississippi is that 1:23:33.040 --> 1:23:36.360 they're blind on rural on rural America, right. You know, 1:23:36.479 --> 1:23:40.280 their inability to get support from rural whites isn't due 1:23:40.280 --> 1:23:43.320 to just rural whites, it's all over. It explains why 1:23:43.680 --> 1:23:49.439 rural Hispanics lean right in Texas, rural blacks are. While 1:23:49.439 --> 1:23:53.040 they don't necessarily lean right in the South, they're less 1:23:53.240 --> 1:24:00.400 supportive of Democrats than urban African Americans. So yes, I 1:24:00.439 --> 1:24:03.240 do believe Mississippi should be in that if you expanded 1:24:03.280 --> 1:24:04.880 it out to the top ten states they should be 1:24:04.880 --> 1:24:07.920 focused on. I think it's six or seven on that list, 1:24:08.640 --> 1:24:13.639 and they need to. But it's a multi year project 1:24:13.680 --> 1:24:17.040 in Mississippi because there's a lot particularly in rural America, 1:24:17.200 --> 1:24:20.240 rural Black America, rural Wide America, and rural Hispanic America. 1:24:20.400 --> 1:24:23.080 Democrats have stopped showing up over the last twenty years 1:24:23.439 --> 1:24:28.439 and they have to reverse that trend. Next question comes 1:24:28.479 --> 1:24:34.000 from Charles Davis. Great name, Charles, Love to know, Charles, Charlie, Chuck, Chaz, 1:24:34.120 --> 1:24:37.439 Chad you what's your favorite of all of our The 1:24:39.680 --> 1:24:42.080 insane amount of nicknames that can come out of the 1:24:42.160 --> 1:24:45.400 name Charles. But I digress. It says, thanks for your 1:24:45.520 --> 1:24:47.600 recent podcast of the Kenny Center. It really resonated. I 1:24:47.600 --> 1:24:49.880 believe Trump and his allies are following authoritariing playbook, but 1:24:49.920 --> 1:24:52.680 they underestimated the resolve of cities like Minneapolis and the 1:24:52.680 --> 1:24:55.840 power of grassroots resistance. The militarization of police and the 1:24:55.840 --> 1:24:58.800 behavior of ICE agents are deeply concerning in tragedies like 1:24:58.840 --> 1:25:00.600 the deaths of Renee Good and Alex Preddie show this 1:25:00.680 --> 1:25:02.800 takes serve my country in many ways, and I've never 1:25:02.840 --> 1:25:07.559 been more worried or more hopeful that Americans are waking up. 1:25:07.600 --> 1:25:09.439 I voted our most of my life. Trump ended that 1:25:09.520 --> 1:25:12.080 no more, and I enjoy your podcast. Keep the good work. Look, 1:25:12.160 --> 1:25:16.080 I appreciate you writing this note, And obviously it's not 1:25:16.080 --> 1:25:19.000 really a question, but it's a statement that I'll want 1:25:19.000 --> 1:25:21.960 to refer have a lot of people refer to when 1:25:21.960 --> 1:25:27.240 they start to feel bleak. You know, what he's doing 1:25:27.320 --> 1:25:30.320 is not popular. That's sort of the point of the 1:25:30.600 --> 1:25:33.679 opening of this podcast. Republicans don't like what he's doing. 1:25:34.040 --> 1:25:36.200 In the words of John dan Forth, aren't we better 1:25:36.240 --> 1:25:41.200 than this? Right? Jack dan Forth thought the Republican Party 1:25:42.560 --> 1:25:46.240 had had more morals than than it does under Donald Trump, 1:25:46.800 --> 1:25:49.160 and had any sort of ethical lines that they would draw, 1:25:49.240 --> 1:25:55.160 and they don't. But nobody likes this, you know, and 1:25:55.400 --> 1:25:57.599 it goes back to, you know, the whole, the whole. 1:25:57.680 --> 1:25:59.320 I do think there are a lot of people who 1:25:59.360 --> 1:26:03.320 supported Trump who don't like being seen as racist like Trump. 1:26:04.479 --> 1:26:10.080 And it's you know, I always say this about Trump. 1:26:10.320 --> 1:26:14.320 Everybody has their own line, and Trump crosses it at 1:26:14.360 --> 1:26:19.040 different times. It sounds like Charles for you, he crossed 1:26:19.080 --> 1:26:22.680 the line a while ago, as I always say for 1:26:22.760 --> 1:26:26.920 Liz jad he didn't cross the line until January sixth, right, 1:26:27.360 --> 1:26:30.000 But when he crossed that line, man, she was out, 1:26:30.160 --> 1:26:35.320 and she was out loudly. John Bolton was out, probably 1:26:35.320 --> 1:26:39.280 sooner than most people thought he'd be out. Mike Pence, Right, 1:26:39.320 --> 1:26:41.360 you see where I'm going here. Everybody has their line 1:26:41.400 --> 1:26:45.839 at different moments. Looks like Rand Paul has a line, 1:26:46.160 --> 1:26:48.879 looks like Thomas Massey has a line, looks like Marjorie 1:26:48.880 --> 1:26:51.720 Taylor Green has a line. And three years ago, if 1:26:51.760 --> 1:26:53.400 I said every republic has a line, some of you 1:26:53.479 --> 1:26:55.400 might have said, well, Marjorie, there's no line for Marjorie 1:26:55.400 --> 1:27:00.160 Taylor Green. Yes, there is. Everybody has a line, and 1:27:00.200 --> 1:27:02.719 I think and this is what I think you're right about, 1:27:02.720 --> 1:27:07.240 which is, you know, not all of these stories impact 1:27:07.560 --> 1:27:11.320 everybody the same way, but a lot of people are 1:27:11.360 --> 1:27:13.920 impacted by at least one of these stories in the 1:27:13.960 --> 1:27:17.280 same way. And that's why he's got approval ratings that 1:27:17.360 --> 1:27:21.160 at best are in the low forties. That's why we're 1:27:21.400 --> 1:27:25.000 on the verge of having a record number of lawmakers 1:27:25.040 --> 1:27:27.920 say I'm out of Trump's Washington, get me out of here. 1:27:28.560 --> 1:27:30.600 By the way, you know, it's interesting about these retirees, 1:27:31.760 --> 1:27:38.280 right those that there's about thirty retirements Republican retirees so 1:27:38.400 --> 1:27:42.680 far this cycle, Essentially half of them are retiring to 1:27:42.760 --> 1:27:44.439 run for higher office, and the other half of them 1:27:44.479 --> 1:27:47.360 are just walking away from politics. Well, the lion's share 1:27:47.360 --> 1:27:49.160 of those that are just walking away from politics all 1:27:49.200 --> 1:27:53.120 Republicans elected before twenty sixteen. Those that are doing the 1:27:53.200 --> 1:27:56.519 upper out are just about all Republicans elected twenty sixteen 1:27:56.600 --> 1:28:02.559 or later. The old Republican Party that accommodated Trump. More 1:28:02.600 --> 1:28:06.200 and more of them are having trouble accommodating him. And 1:28:06.320 --> 1:28:10.080 like I said, every week somebody he crosses the line 1:28:10.200 --> 1:28:15.120 for somebody else. He is not gaining any new support. 1:28:15.360 --> 1:28:21.800 Every week Donald Trump loses more support. Next question comes 1:28:21.840 --> 1:28:25.439 from Rico from Sequoia National Forest. All right, well, here 1:28:25.439 --> 1:28:27.479 we are two big baseball fans gearing up for another 1:28:27.479 --> 1:28:29.200 on hundred and sixty two game season. But I still 1:28:29.200 --> 1:28:31.479 can't get over what I think is the dumbest rule 1:28:31.520 --> 1:28:33.559 in sports, the intentional walk of teams want to pitch 1:28:33.600 --> 1:28:36.080 around guys like Otanni. Fine, but make it cost two 1:28:36.080 --> 1:28:39.080 bases instead of one. I like where you're going there. 1:28:39.240 --> 1:28:41.280 MLBE keeps talking about speeding up the game. So why 1:28:41.280 --> 1:28:44.080 not fix this? What say you keep the cowardice or 1:28:44.240 --> 1:28:49.720 change the rule? Wow? Two bases for intentional walks? You 1:28:49.760 --> 1:28:55.800 know I could see I could buy into that. You know, 1:28:56.280 --> 1:29:02.400 maybe it's something like you get it. You can't you 1:29:02.439 --> 1:29:08.439 can only intentionally walk a player once again, and and 1:29:09.479 --> 1:29:12.479 you know you can so because I think what's first 1:29:12.479 --> 1:29:14.040 of all, it's bad for the fans, right, we want 1:29:14.080 --> 1:29:16.040 to see Otani hit. So let's just you know, I 1:29:16.040 --> 1:29:17.880 remember this with Bonds too, but let's just say it 1:29:17.880 --> 1:29:21.040 with Otani. You know, you know, Tani is like, you know, 1:29:21.240 --> 1:29:23.880 a version of the NBA on the road, right, you know, 1:29:24.000 --> 1:29:27.439 NBA in the regular season and Lakers come to town. 1:29:27.439 --> 1:29:30.080 All right, I want to see Lebron. Oh, Lebron's resting tonight, 1:29:30.240 --> 1:29:32.679 you know, you know, with the with the with the 1:29:32.760 --> 1:29:34.560 with the minute. So it's not very fan friendly. And 1:29:34.600 --> 1:29:36.599 you spend all this money, you think take your kid 1:29:36.640 --> 1:29:38.439 to see Lebron the one time a year that Lebron 1:29:38.479 --> 1:29:40.479 shows up, particularly if you're in the Eastern Conference. Right, 1:29:41.040 --> 1:29:44.559 So nobody wants to go to a game all excited 1:29:44.560 --> 1:29:46.280 to see Otani play for the first time, only to 1:29:46.280 --> 1:29:51.559 see him intentionally walk three times. So I think an 1:29:51.600 --> 1:29:53.519 addendum I would make to your rule is I think 1:29:53.520 --> 1:29:57.240 it's one that you can't intentionally walk any player more 1:29:57.280 --> 1:30:00.200 than once a game. And if you do I want 1:30:00.240 --> 1:30:04.920 to intentionally walk, it's it's it's two. It's two bases, 1:30:07.880 --> 1:30:11.200 I think. I guess I look at it this way. 1:30:11.280 --> 1:30:14.679 Rico and my dog here has a very strong opinion 1:30:14.680 --> 1:30:17.400 about this too. Speaking of intentional walks, she would like 1:30:17.439 --> 1:30:21.800 to be intentionally walked. Right after I finished taping this episode. 1:30:21.880 --> 1:30:24.759 But I think I don't think you will get support 1:30:24.800 --> 1:30:27.599 for just doing all intentional walks two bases. But I 1:30:27.640 --> 1:30:31.599 do think if you make it one per game per player, 1:30:32.520 --> 1:30:34.599 that might be a better way to do things, all right, 1:30:34.640 --> 1:30:38.960 last question, Like I said, I gotta intentionally walk Cali 1:30:40.080 --> 1:30:42.439 just wanted to toss out a new name that scandal 1:30:42.520 --> 1:30:46.280 headlines Okay, here it is, the Abu Dhabi crypto affair, 1:30:47.160 --> 1:30:52.639 all right, the Maga coin con okay, the shake Steak 1:30:52.800 --> 1:30:57.760 scandal kind of sizzling, right if the words sizzle in there, right, 1:30:58.479 --> 1:31:01.120 hope one of these sticks best. Chase from Little Rock, Arkansas. 1:31:02.000 --> 1:31:05.120 He claims it's he keeps saying the five Timers Club, Chase. 1:31:05.160 --> 1:31:07.160 I think we're up to six or seven Timers Club 1:31:07.280 --> 1:31:10.800 on this. So well, there it is. That's a good 1:31:10.800 --> 1:31:13.479 way to end this, end this episode. Let's see what 1:31:13.479 --> 1:31:16.400 you guys come up with. He's trying Abu Dhabi crypto affair, 1:31:17.479 --> 1:31:24.920 the Maga coin con, and the Shakesteak scandal and Chase. 1:31:25.000 --> 1:31:29.559 I would probably say, let's go back to the drawing boarder. 1:31:29.600 --> 1:31:31.880 Let's get some more nominees out there. That's all I'm saying. 1:31:31.920 --> 1:31:34.320 Let's get some Let's get some more nominees out there. 1:31:35.760 --> 1:31:39.640 So with that, hey, listen, I I'm going to be 1:31:40.640 --> 1:31:43.280 a cheerleader for one thing, and that's Team USA. I 1:31:43.400 --> 1:31:49.800 love you know, I give my old, my old, my 1:31:49.880 --> 1:31:51.880 old workplace, a lot of grief on what they've done 1:31:51.920 --> 1:31:54.120 to the new side of things. I'm not gonna walk, 1:31:54.280 --> 1:31:59.240 I'm not gonna relitigate what's happened on that front. I 1:31:59.360 --> 1:32:01.960 just want to give a lot of kudos and credit 1:32:02.000 --> 1:32:04.439 to the coverage of the Olympics by my old employer. 1:32:04.439 --> 1:32:07.599 I think IBC Sports do a terrific job. They have finally, 1:32:07.720 --> 1:32:10.120 I think, and you saw it with the last you 1:32:10.200 --> 1:32:14.639 really saw it in twenty twenty four, with the gold 1:32:14.760 --> 1:32:17.559 Zone and everything they've done. But they have really figured 1:32:17.600 --> 1:32:22.200 out I mean the Olympics and this streaming moment, right like, 1:32:22.240 --> 1:32:24.559 if you talk about a sporting event that was built 1:32:24.680 --> 1:32:26.639 for this moment that we live in where you can 1:32:26.720 --> 1:32:30.040 just go find your sport, find your stream, the gold Zone. 1:32:30.439 --> 1:32:33.760 If you actually want to watch the Olympics for competition, 1:32:34.200 --> 1:32:37.680 you can just watch a stream that does that. You know. 1:32:37.720 --> 1:32:40.200 If you do want the stories and sort of the 1:32:40.200 --> 1:32:42.599 soap opera part of the Olympics that the network always 1:32:42.640 --> 1:32:45.559 gives you, you can do that too. But I just 1:32:46.000 --> 1:32:51.080 will say that I am there's no qualification here, guys. 1:32:51.200 --> 1:32:55.960 It's fantastic. I love what's being done. I love the coverage. 1:32:57.240 --> 1:33:02.280 It breaks my heart that Team USA and Team Israel 1:33:02.280 --> 1:33:04.160 gets booed as hard as they are right now in Europe. 1:33:05.439 --> 1:33:08.760 That that hurts, right, I wish I but I also 1:33:08.840 --> 1:33:11.720 understand it. And the only word of warning I'd give 1:33:11.760 --> 1:33:14.800 to my friends at NBC Sports is, you know, I 1:33:14.840 --> 1:33:17.400 get you want to try to make the games about 1:33:17.400 --> 1:33:24.120 the games. There's there's there's avoiding politics, but then they're 1:33:24.160 --> 1:33:27.920 censoring it. Be careful of walking that line. I'm all 1:33:27.960 --> 1:33:31.160 for avoiding it. You want to showcase the games, but 1:33:31.200 --> 1:33:35.320 be careful censoring. I think it's important for the audience 1:33:35.360 --> 1:33:40.200 to know how unpopular an American official is. If there 1:33:40.320 --> 1:33:43.439 is a moment that that happens, all right with that, 1:33:43.720 --> 1:33:44.720 I'll see in forty eight nine,