WEBVTT - Bitcoin’s Volatility Explosion Is Near... You Need To Be Ready | Jamie Coutts 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:03.560 This is the time which bitcoin would typically peak. We're 0:00:03.560 --> 0:00:05.800 in the latest stages of the bullmarket. This is not 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:09.920 where easy gains are made anymore. Momentum destruction underneath the 0:00:09.960 --> 0:00:13.880 surface of the price has been the marginal buyers, being 0:00:14.040 --> 0:00:18.040 Bitcoin treasury companies and the ETFs. We will see massive 0:00:18.360 --> 0:00:21.799 volatility expansion at certain times. You'll start to continue to 0:00:21.840 --> 0:00:24.360 see our performance from some of the other crypto asset 0:00:24.480 --> 0:00:27.600 for the bitcoin treasury companies well managed one, they'll be 0:00:27.680 --> 0:00:30.120 like a delineation and you'll start to see sort of 0:00:30.120 --> 0:00:30.800 a divergence. 0:00:30.880 --> 0:00:33.400 Bitcoin is commodity with no common issue or a pre mine, 0:00:33.479 --> 0:00:35.440 but also with a fixed supply. And then you have 0:00:35.479 --> 0:00:38.040 these assets like ethereum that doesn't really have a known supply. 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:40.839 From the treasury standpoint, how does it make sense to 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:44.240 buy an asset that's not clearly defined has no fixed supply. 0:00:44.560 --> 0:00:45.600 Yes, sir, I mean. 0:00:47.120 --> 0:00:48.960 We're going to jump right in with my friend Jimmie 0:00:49.000 --> 0:00:52.680 Cowty is the chief crypto analyst over at Real Vision. 0:00:52.720 --> 0:00:55.760 They do amazing work and especially what I love is 0:00:55.760 --> 0:00:58.960 the work on global liquidity on macro. We're going to 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:02.200 dive into the four global equity cycle. Is the bitcoin 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:04.760 four year cycle intact, are we gonna peak at the 0:01:04.800 --> 0:01:06.959 end of this year, what will the price of bitcoin be, 0:01:07.400 --> 0:01:11.520 what's gonna happen with bitcoin treasury, companies with digital asset 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:14.840 treasuries like Ethereum, the crypto market, and so much more. 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:17.600 It's an amazing interview. Let's go ahead and jump right in, 0:01:17.640 --> 0:01:19.840 and don't forget to hit subscribe on that channel so 0:01:19.840 --> 0:01:22.520 you don't miss more of these. All right, let's go, Jamie, 0:01:23.080 --> 0:01:25.120 Thanks for joining me. I have been looking forward to 0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:27.440 this conversation and we just spent so much time talking 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:30.640 off offline, but let's just jump right into it. I 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:33.200 have a bunch of topics and questions for you, but anyway, 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:34.760 thanks for coming on. Appreciate it. 0:01:35.800 --> 0:01:38.160 Yeah, thanks Mak. I'm glad we finally got to do this. 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:40.040 It's been a couple of months in the miking. 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:42.640 Yeah. Well we tried to hook up in Australia last 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:45.120 year and then yeah, we're trying to connect here. But 0:01:45.400 --> 0:01:47.840 you know, I love the research that you do. I 0:01:47.880 --> 0:01:49.800 love the research that you do and real vision does 0:01:50.640 --> 0:01:52.280 I know in the bitcoin space a lot of people 0:01:52.360 --> 0:01:54.320 just don't like raw Paul, and they don't like real vision. 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:55.880 But I think I think you guys do great work there. 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:59.640 I'm not gonna buy your NFTs, but I appreciate that. 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:01.440 I appreciate the macro research. 0:02:02.400 --> 0:02:05.880 I don't know ye all right, I know rale of 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:06.919 those NFTs. 0:02:07.240 --> 0:02:09.680 But let's just let's jump right at the top and 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:11.600 try to understand where we're at in the cycle where 0:02:11.639 --> 0:02:16.400 we're going macro for your cycles, Global equidy, bitcoin, crypto, bitcoin, 0:02:16.440 --> 0:02:19.400 treasury companies, dats all that. So let's let's start at 0:02:19.400 --> 0:02:22.000 the top though. So you know, I love the macro 0:02:22.080 --> 0:02:25.880 research that you guys do. Why don't we just start off? 0:02:25.880 --> 0:02:28.080 Can you just frame out where we're at right now? 0:02:28.120 --> 0:02:30.320 This is nine fifteen, We're about a couple of days 0:02:30.320 --> 0:02:32.280 away from Jerome Powell to FED making some of a 0:02:32.320 --> 0:02:35.359 big announcement. Where are we at in this macro cycle 0:02:35.440 --> 0:02:38.280 right now? Frame it up? 0:02:39.240 --> 0:02:41.760 Yes, sir, I mean we if people are following sort 0:02:41.760 --> 0:02:46.280 of the stationary models for crypto, then we're at pika 0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:50.040 cycle right. This is the time which bitcoin would typically 0:02:50.320 --> 0:02:55.200 pake and we'd be sliding into a bear market sort 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:58.840 of by next year. Now, this cycle has been very, 0:02:58.919 --> 0:03:01.560 very different. We can talk about what a cycle actually 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:04.040 means in crypto because it does mean different things to 0:03:04.040 --> 0:03:06.800 different people, but also people are now hyper sensitized to 0:03:06.880 --> 0:03:12.680 the word cycle, and therefore everyone talks about it. This 0:03:13.360 --> 0:03:17.400 where I think we are, though, is at the We're 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:19.720 in the latest stages of the bullmarket, Like this is 0:03:19.840 --> 0:03:23.760 not where easy gains are made anymore. Bitcoin is six 0:03:24.000 --> 0:03:27.840 x from the lows in twenty twenty two, but I 0:03:27.880 --> 0:03:29.960 still think there is more upside. And the reason why 0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:33.160 I think there is more upside for bitcoin and for 0:03:33.280 --> 0:03:37.320 other crypto assets is that, you know, we've had a 0:03:37.400 --> 0:03:41.280 extraordinary or a very different period coming out of the 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:46.400 coming out of the last bullmarket, which was really just 0:03:46.400 --> 0:03:49.160 a hangover from the excess liquidity that was pumped into 0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:52.960 the system because of the COVID madness. So the fallout 0:03:53.000 --> 0:03:57.400 obviously has been higher consumer price inflation, but also a 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:00.600 deficit in the US and in most West and governments 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:05.720 that has exceeded the growth in economic growth. And therefore, 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:10.640 you know, you've got a problem with too much debt, 0:04:11.400 --> 0:04:16.000 not enough liquidity. A business cycle, which is incredibly important 0:04:16.240 --> 0:04:20.000 and ties into the cryptocycle that has been more or 0:04:20.080 --> 0:04:23.360 less been in sort of has flatlined, hasn't really been 0:04:23.400 --> 0:04:26.040 an expansion phase. It's the longest period where the business 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:28.640 cycle has remained all the ism has remained under fifty, 0:04:30.279 --> 0:04:34.480 but that has changed the I guess the duration of 0:04:34.760 --> 0:04:39.200 the cycle. And therefore we're at a point now where 0:04:39.360 --> 0:04:42.400 it's clear that the business cycle is starting to improve. 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:47.520 Corporate earnings are you know, dramatically improving. Positioning in risk 0:04:47.600 --> 0:04:51.920 assets if you look at equities is not ephoric. And 0:04:52.240 --> 0:04:56.800 you've got this problem that the central banks are patently 0:04:56.839 --> 0:05:00.919 aware of that they have a system which is incredibly 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:04.800 indebted within amount of debt has increased way more, and 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:07.960 then the liquidity they've allowed back into the system through 0:05:08.000 --> 0:05:11.480 interest rate policies or through central bank balance sheet activities, 0:05:11.760 --> 0:05:14.520 and I think that gives us a liquidity impulse in 0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:18.400 upsurch towards the end of this year and into next year. 0:05:18.440 --> 0:05:21.400 So my view is that we this you know, this 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:24.400 market extends into sort of the first half of next year, 0:05:24.440 --> 0:05:26.960 and then it's sort of anyone scares as to where 0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:29.400 the peak might be. But we at real Vision have 0:05:29.880 --> 0:05:33.640 the frameworks basically to outline probabilistically when things are going 0:05:33.720 --> 0:05:34.760 to turn right. 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:39.760 Would you say that things would you say that global 0:05:40.040 --> 0:05:44.560 macro markets fundamentally changed in two thousand and eight, so 0:05:44.600 --> 0:05:47.240 we got the introduction of QE, we got all the 0:05:47.279 --> 0:05:50.919 central bank balance sheets have been overly extended, levered up 0:05:50.920 --> 0:05:54.640 at this point, and it looks like, in my opinion, 0:05:54.880 --> 0:05:57.040 you know, previous to two thousand and eight, they sort 0:05:57.080 --> 0:06:00.360 of allowed the markets to sort of deleverage, which they 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:02.120 tried to do in two thousand and eight and things 0:06:02.160 --> 0:06:04.600 fell apart too fast, and they said, oh, we can't 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:07.200 do that, right, we levered the system back up, and 0:06:07.320 --> 0:06:12.000 since then twenty nineteen, obviously twenty twenty, the banking collapse 0:06:12.040 --> 0:06:15.320 in twenty twenty three, any time there's been even the 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:18.080 slightest hint of some sort of deleveraging. The bank's collapse 0:06:18.120 --> 0:06:20.600 in twenty twenty three, it took six days to get 0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:23.719 a bell out, and it just seems that now the 0:06:23.800 --> 0:06:26.280 system has become so levered up. But not just that, 0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:31.039 the appetite, the willingness to allow any deleveraging has also changed. 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:33.880 The amount of tools that they've implemented to prevent that 0:06:34.000 --> 0:06:38.800 de leveraging have been radically changed, especially since COVID and 0:06:38.880 --> 0:06:41.799 you mentioned the amount of deficit spending and debt spending 0:06:41.800 --> 0:06:48.280 that's really driving the market. So do you think that 0:06:48.520 --> 0:06:52.119 you know, this four year cycle could be changed based 0:06:52.160 --> 0:06:56.839 off of the government's ability to stop adding liquidity or 0:06:57.000 --> 0:07:00.640 wanting to stop adding liquidity, or willingness to Is it 0:07:00.680 --> 0:07:01.920 like almost like a policy thing. 0:07:02.480 --> 0:07:07.039 Well, I mean I always talk about investing as really 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:09.440 playing like this game of chicken with central banks, Like 0:07:09.600 --> 0:07:12.040 we know that, we know what the game plan is, 0:07:12.680 --> 0:07:16.760 and so I think that they're always going to step in. 0:07:17.600 --> 0:07:21.160 And now you've got the government, you know this, We're 0:07:21.160 --> 0:07:24.160 in a sort of fiscal dominance regime. That's been a 0:07:24.480 --> 0:07:27.600 that's been the shift. I think that's probably most important 0:07:27.640 --> 0:07:30.600 to understand in terms of cycle work, because if you 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:35.920 think about cycles being driven by liquidity, yes, the bitcoint 0:07:36.040 --> 0:07:41.760 harving definitely drove cycles, but it's become less and less important. 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:46.560 But it also just happened to coincide with this cycle, 0:07:46.600 --> 0:07:49.800 which the liquidity cycle, which tends to operate in a 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:52.360 three to five year time frame. Yeah, everyone says it's 0:07:52.360 --> 0:07:55.440 like four years, but really, why is it on a 0:07:55.440 --> 0:07:57.320 three to five year time range. It's because it's based 0:07:57.360 --> 0:08:01.280 on the duration of the debt at the sovereign level. 0:08:01.520 --> 0:08:05.600 Now sovereigns will take out will fund themselves through an 0:08:05.720 --> 0:08:08.160 array of different maturities, but were sort of the average 0:08:08.160 --> 0:08:10.480 has been around this sort of three to five period. 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:13.600 That's just what has looked like a four year cycle, 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:18.840 which was attributed to the bitcoin harving cycle. I think 0:08:18.880 --> 0:08:22.360 it look I think it was always there. If you 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:24.119 go back to nineteen ninety eight. There was a recent 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:26.520 report which I think you that you got as well, 0:08:27.160 --> 0:08:30.320 which I published, was looking at sort of what happened 0:08:30.320 --> 0:08:33.320 in ninety ninety eight around LTCM. The central banks have 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:37.720 always been willing to step in, but they the events 0:08:37.720 --> 0:08:42.439 were so infrequent or relatively infrequent as compared to it today, 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:46.640 that they were generally slower. But they show they always 0:08:46.640 --> 0:08:49.160 showed their true colors. I mean, they've got this dual mandate, 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:52.720 which I think is a facade. The actual mandate is 0:08:52.760 --> 0:08:56.440 to ensure that there is no default of the system 0:08:56.600 --> 0:08:59.680 yep right, because they are in the case of the US, 0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:05.199 there definitely a private entity. It's different setups around the 0:09:05.200 --> 0:09:07.520 world for other central banks, but essentially they're they're just 0:09:07.520 --> 0:09:11.560 to prop up the banks, the commercial banking sector. So 0:09:11.960 --> 0:09:16.640 the cycle itself now is because of fiscal dominance, is 0:09:16.720 --> 0:09:19.560 morphing again. And this is a This is work that 0:09:19.600 --> 0:09:21.720 you know, we're looking at Rale's definitely looking at it. 0:09:21.960 --> 0:09:25.079 You know, Ral and I do independent researcher but it's 0:09:25.080 --> 0:09:27.040 all on the real Vision platform. But we have sort 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:29.160 of the same frameworks that he's informed me so much 0:09:29.200 --> 0:09:31.320 in my process over the years. But I was having 0:09:31.360 --> 0:09:33.440 this conversation with him just the other day. It's like, 0:09:33.960 --> 0:09:37.880 you know, now, that's so much of the liquidity is 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:41.840 now being driven out of the Treasury by issuing short 0:09:41.920 --> 0:09:47.360 term debt. What does that mean for the liquidity cycle? 0:09:47.440 --> 0:09:50.959 The traditional liquidity cycle where you know, they used to 0:09:51.040 --> 0:09:57.040 operate on a fairly standard maturity sort of program and 0:09:57.280 --> 0:09:59.320 we could sort of time it within sort of three 0:09:59.320 --> 0:10:02.160 to five years, and it's changed. And so I think 0:10:02.200 --> 0:10:07.440 that not only was the excessive reaction to COVID the 0:10:07.520 --> 0:10:10.240 reason why we've got an elongated cycle this time around, 0:10:10.280 --> 0:10:12.920 but also now the US since twenty twenty two, with 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:15.560 the Treasury doing what it's been doing, you know, maybe 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:19.920 these cycles get shortened. Maybe there's more volatility because once 0:10:19.960 --> 0:10:21.640 you start stuffing in all the debt of the short 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:24.640 term at the short end, Yeah, stable coins are great. 0:10:24.679 --> 0:10:26.480 That's going to find a whole new bunch of buyers 0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:30.880 for the toxic debt of the US. But anything that 0:10:30.960 --> 0:10:34.280 goes wrong, you know, is much more it's susceptible to 0:10:34.320 --> 0:10:38.560 cause flash points in the in the financial system because 0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:41.120 they'll need to be very very quick to step in, 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:44.560 even more so and even more unorthodox than before. So 0:10:44.920 --> 0:10:47.680 the Fed's just basically tied to the US debt wagon 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:48.400 at this point. 0:10:48.760 --> 0:10:50.720 So they are you seen something changed in two thousand 0:10:50.720 --> 0:10:52.240 and eight and it's. 0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:56.680 A and eight when basically the US government took on 0:10:56.760 --> 0:10:58.840 the debt of the private of the banks. 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:02.760 So with the short term debt that we have building up, 0:11:02.960 --> 0:11:05.559 and there the leverage has been built up that can't 0:11:05.640 --> 0:11:11.000 unlever their willingness to act potentially anything, any disruption that comes, 0:11:11.000 --> 0:11:12.480 they're going to step in right away, just like we've 0:11:12.480 --> 0:11:14.840 seen in the past, and that could disrupt these cycles 0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:16.000 as we've as we've known them. 0:11:16.440 --> 0:11:19.000 Yeah, I mean, I just think that what the Treasury 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:22.800 has done is new and that needs to be incorporated 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:26.080 in sort of forward thinking about what cycles will look like. 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:28.440 But like the trajectory doesn't change. 0:11:28.280 --> 0:11:30.800 Because it's not just the it's not just the US Treasury, 0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:33.680 right because like in London, for example, the BOE has 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:36.880 been cutting rates but like the long end is blowing out, right, 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:39.520 So we see other other central banks that are like 0:11:39.600 --> 0:11:44.920 getting maybe losing control of their bond market. Japan's having 0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:46.920 a problem with theirs, and so what happens then they 0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:49.000 have to start printing to control that long end of 0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:51.839 the curve. And and anyways, that's kind of some of 0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:53.320 the some of the things that I'm thinking about, Like, 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:55.640 I feel like the cycle is an effect until it's 0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:57.440 proven to be otherwise. But there's a lot of things 0:11:57.480 --> 0:11:59.360 that are happening that seems like maybe it just won't 0:11:59.360 --> 0:12:01.200 play out exactly click we thought it did before. 0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:04.120 Yeah, well it's already that's already proven to be the case. 0:12:04.160 --> 0:12:08.120 If you held the view going into this year or 0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:09.679 this circle was that it was going to be a 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:11.280 standard four year cycle. 0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:13.439 Right, So as you said, I think when you first 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:15.440 kind of opened up, you said, I forget the word 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:18.440 that you use. But if you looked at these things 0:12:18.520 --> 0:12:21.040 kind of frozen in time, we should be peeking right 0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:23.280 around here somewhere in the next month or two. But 0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:26.440 these are moving targets, right, And so it's like, well, 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:29.120 let's just see what happens in Q one and we'll 0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:31.080 let you know in q one sort of what the 0:12:31.120 --> 0:12:33.480 policy is at that point. Every day we see headlines 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:37.720 about inflation and dead and diminishing control over our own money. 0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:40.120 That's why I always come back to bitcoin, because it's 0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:42.240 built for generations, it's built for legacy. 0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:45.319 But protecting your bitcoin legacy the right way. 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:48.560 It is not always simple. It demands discipline, focus and 0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:52.240 the right partner. 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So look, 0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:09.520 if the cycle ends, we'll all look back and say 0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:12.280 Q four was really the top in the un chain 0:14:12.400 --> 0:14:14.600 data and all the risk metrics in the same way 0:14:14.640 --> 0:14:18.360 as May of twenty twenty one was really that was 0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:20.920 the real top of that cycle because it took out 0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:23.280 all the momentum and so yes, we went higher. But 0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:27.400 you know, there isn't really in this the most recent 0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:29.960 run up to one hundred and twenty five thousand in bitcoin, 0:14:31.080 --> 0:14:34.800 there wasn't really a there wasn't screaming euphoria. 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:35.520 One of the. 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:39.640 Reasons maybe we can get into as to why there's 0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:43.520 been sort of I guess momentum destruction underneath the surface 0:14:43.600 --> 0:14:48.480 of the price has been the marginal buyers being bitcoin 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:53.320 treasury companies and the ETFs peeking into that cycle and 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:57.640 then then basically you know, declining quite rapidly since then. 0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:02.560 So that is that is the critical swing factor for bitcoin. 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:06.600 But that will follow the liquidity cycles, SORR. If liquidity 0:15:06.600 --> 0:15:09.880 picks up, the ETF buys will return, the bitcoin treasury 0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:14.600 companies will see maybe not fooling m nabs, maybe expansion, 0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:17.920 who knows, but their capacity to buy and become, you know, 0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:21.880 and get more involved in buying bitcoin will increase. 0:15:22.040 --> 0:15:23.920 I want to definitely get back into that topic a 0:15:23.960 --> 0:15:25.880 little bit more, but before we do, I'm curious what 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:30.520 you think about bitcoin's KAGAR. So depending on what time 0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:32.400 period you take a look at, right, maybe it's a 0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:35.640 fifty to sixty percent annual compound and annual growth rate 0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:39.320 over the last three years, three to five years, maybe 0:15:39.360 --> 0:15:41.400 eighty five percent if you go back five years plus. 0:15:42.080 --> 0:15:44.680 The general rule of thumb seems to be that the 0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:48.040 law of large numbers says that that number continues to decelerate, 0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:50.840 and we go from eighty to sixty to fifty to 0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:54.040 forty to thirty, et cetera. What do you think about 0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:56.600 or have you thought about the potential for Kagar to 0:15:56.720 --> 0:16:00.800 actually start to reaccelerate again. And the reason why I 0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:03.760 asked that is if you think about like traditional assets 0:16:04.240 --> 0:16:09.280 that would be probably started from venture capital round and 0:16:09.360 --> 0:16:12.200 they've got all the private equity money in before they 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:14.480 go public, and then you start having retail, which is 0:16:14.520 --> 0:16:17.200 small incremental money that kind of comes in, and so 0:16:17.280 --> 0:16:19.800 as the asset gets bigger, it's big checks first, small 0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:22.480 checks later, whereas like Bitcoin seem to work the other 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:24.360 way around, where it was little checks in the beginning. 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:26.600 And today to your point that you just brought up 0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:29.640 about the bitcoin treasury companies, now we have billions of 0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:32.240 dollars of buyas coming in at a time, and so 0:16:32.360 --> 0:16:35.040 now with the treasury companies, with the institutions, as you mentioned, 0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:38.440 the detfs, with even sovereigns coming in, could we be 0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:40.840 sort of, you know, looking at technology with an S 0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:43.560 curve type format. Could we sort of be in that 0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:46.280 pair of ball at phase with the big checks coming 0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:49.920 in that could potentially invert bitcoin and see that Kaggar 0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:51.360 start to accelerate it again a little bit. 0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:56.760 I think what's offsetting that hypolthsis mac is that you've 0:16:56.760 --> 0:17:00.520 got now you know, in the early stages ying spot 0:17:00.520 --> 0:17:04.080 buying only and you had sort of the uniqueness of 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:07.600 the hardcap as well with the declining inflation rate, that 0:17:07.840 --> 0:17:12.560 was perfect for parabolic rises, especially when it was just 0:17:13.160 --> 0:17:18.399 the plubs us buying it. Then as more as the 0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:25.399 as the network evolved and I guess more sophisticated players. 0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:27.760 The futures, the options, et cetera. 0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:31.760 Suppressing the volatility. So you know, I even look at 0:17:31.760 --> 0:17:35.040 the the research that I do. I look at the 0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:40.800 elasticity of bitcoin to changes in liquidity, which is, you know, 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:43.800 anyone who says there's a perfect metric or perfect correlation 0:17:43.880 --> 0:17:48.560 in financial markets doesn't nate certain financial markets because markets 0:17:48.560 --> 0:17:53.760 are nonstationary. But at least historically and still today, the 0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:58.240 relationship with liquidity is statistically extremely significant, but it is 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:01.919 moderating over time, and so looking at sort of just 0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:06.159 the last couple of years, bitcoins elasticity to the changes 0:18:06.200 --> 0:18:09.760 in liquidity is less this cycle than in the last cycle, 0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:12.639 but not by a massive amount. And just where we 0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:15.040 are in the liquidity cycle is typically when you start 0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:19.080 to see a real uptick, and therefore the elasticity generally 0:18:19.119 --> 0:18:22.239 expands also during this period, but more so in the 0:18:22.280 --> 0:18:25.679 same sort of scenario from previous cycles. So I just 0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:28.680 look at that and I think, Okay, you've got suppression 0:18:28.680 --> 0:18:31.240 of volatility, and you've got just the maturation of the 0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:35.160 market and the sensitivity of the asset to the drivers 0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:39.800 of the price starting to decline. So I am in 0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:42.240 the camp that we start to see k gars moderate 0:18:42.320 --> 0:18:44.840 over time. But it's going to be interesting because there 0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:49.560 will be explosions of volatility in and along the way. 0:18:50.119 --> 0:18:51.959 And if you look at like, you know why you 0:18:52.000 --> 0:18:53.840 invest in the S and P five hundred from a 0:18:53.840 --> 0:18:58.800 traditional portfolio management standpoint is that you stay allocated because 0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:02.600 if you try to time that market, generally like nine 0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:04.920 percent of the returns come from like ten trading days 0:19:04.960 --> 0:19:08.360 in the year. Same applies for bitcoin, and we will 0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:12.879 see like massive volatility expansion at certain times, like we 0:19:12.920 --> 0:19:15.920 saw in twenty twenty three with the bank bailout, and 0:19:16.160 --> 0:19:19.520 the first time that bitcoin basically gave the signal that 0:19:19.600 --> 0:19:24.679 this is a systemically integrated asset with real risk of 0:19:24.880 --> 0:19:29.600 characteristics because the interbank market exploded. Bitcoin always fell in 0:19:29.640 --> 0:19:32.439 those scenarios, it didn't that time, So it was another 0:19:32.480 --> 0:19:34.159 sort of proving point, and I think we'll see a 0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:37.080 lot more tests like that where Bitcoin will show that 0:19:37.160 --> 0:19:41.120 it is truly a risk of affort asset and sort 0:19:41.119 --> 0:19:43.600 of shrud the criticism that it's just a you know, 0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:45.960 it's a risk asset correlator to the Nasdaq, which is 0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:46.560 not true. 0:19:46.680 --> 0:19:49.280 Yeah. I mean, certainly, in the last five years, the 0:19:49.280 --> 0:19:51.640 sharp ra show has been much better than US treasuries, 0:19:52.800 --> 0:19:55.160 and we can see how since the introduction of the ETFs, 0:19:55.160 --> 0:20:00.520 the volatility has really come way down, so as it's 0:20:00.560 --> 0:20:04.159 like we could just continue just sort of being boring 0:20:04.280 --> 0:20:05.720 and just continue creeping. 0:20:05.520 --> 0:20:06.560 Higher and higher and higher. 0:20:06.640 --> 0:20:10.719 You know, maybe you mentioned the global liquidity and some 0:20:10.720 --> 0:20:14.600 of the elasticity that sort of diminished their real vision. 0:20:14.680 --> 0:20:18.840 Ral talks a lot about global equity flows and sort 0:20:18.840 --> 0:20:22.199 of this potentially whatever eight to twelve week lag that 0:20:22.240 --> 0:20:25.080 Bitcoin might have to that global equity move. And so 0:20:25.320 --> 0:20:27.359 when you look at this global equity move right now 0:20:27.400 --> 0:20:30.119 and then adjust for this lag, I mean, it looks 0:20:30.200 --> 0:20:32.440 like there should still be a pretty another big leg 0:20:32.520 --> 0:20:33.639 up in front of us. 0:20:34.240 --> 0:20:37.400 Yeah. Yeah, I mean the problem with using the lags 0:20:37.480 --> 0:20:40.760 is that markets on nonstationary, so change of its time, 0:20:40.840 --> 0:20:45.080 but directionally it should play out unless there's something fundamentally 0:20:45.080 --> 0:20:47.840 different about this asset that we're not aware of, and 0:20:47.880 --> 0:20:51.119 that it's not tied to, you know, the increase in 0:20:51.400 --> 0:20:54.399 marginal new units of currency in the in the financial system, 0:20:54.440 --> 0:20:57.960 which I don't believe to be true. Sorry, that the 0:20:58.000 --> 0:21:01.399 problem is that twitters as attached itself to this chart. 0:21:01.760 --> 0:21:03.919 I think it's been in the most shared chart of 0:21:04.040 --> 0:21:08.280 twenty twenty five, and it's fixated on the on the lags. 0:21:09.119 --> 0:21:11.760 You know, Rawl said this many times and I would 0:21:11.760 --> 0:21:13.920 certainly say it as well as like, if you're trying 0:21:13.920 --> 0:21:17.600 to invest on one chart with one correlation fixed with 0:21:17.640 --> 0:21:20.919 a fixed timeline that's been working for the last two years, 0:21:21.400 --> 0:21:25.200 then you're gonna you're gonna come on stuck. Yeah, but yeah, 0:21:25.200 --> 0:21:27.880 you're right like that that the divergence between the two 0:21:28.640 --> 0:21:32.640 is as expanded, and it's not just M two, which 0:21:32.720 --> 0:21:35.800 I think is the most shared sort of version of that. 0:21:35.920 --> 0:21:40.120 It's total global liquidity. So you know, you're looking at 0:21:40.400 --> 0:21:42.639