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Speaker 1: This is the time which bitcoin would typically peak. We're

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Speaker 1: in the latest stages of the bullmarket. This is not

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Speaker 1: where easy gains are made anymore. Momentum destruction underneath the

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Speaker 1: surface of the price has been the marginal buyers, being

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Speaker 1: Bitcoin treasury companies and the ETFs. We will see massive

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Speaker 1: volatility expansion at certain times. You'll start to continue to

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Speaker 1: see our performance from some of the other crypto asset

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Speaker 1: for the bitcoin treasury companies well managed one, they'll be

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Speaker 1: like a delineation and you'll start to see sort of

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Speaker 1: a divergence.

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Speaker 2: Bitcoin is commodity with no common issue or a pre mine,

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Speaker 2: but also with a fixed supply. And then you have

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Speaker 2: these assets like ethereum that doesn't really have a known supply.

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Speaker 2: From the treasury standpoint, how does it make sense to

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Speaker 2: buy an asset that's not clearly defined has no fixed supply.

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Speaker 1: Yes, sir, I mean.

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Speaker 2: We're going to jump right in with my friend Jimmie

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Speaker 2: Cowty is the chief crypto analyst over at Real Vision.

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Speaker 2: They do amazing work and especially what I love is

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Speaker 2: the work on global liquidity on macro. We're going to

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Speaker 2: dive into the four global equity cycle. Is the bitcoin

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Speaker 2: four year cycle intact, are we gonna peak at the

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Speaker 2: end of this year, what will the price of bitcoin be,

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Speaker 2: what's gonna happen with bitcoin treasury, companies with digital asset

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Speaker 2: treasuries like Ethereum, the crypto market, and so much more.

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Speaker 2: It's an amazing interview. Let's go ahead and jump right in,

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Speaker 2: and don't forget to hit subscribe on that channel so

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Speaker 2: you don't miss more of these. All right, let's go, Jamie,

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Speaker 2: Thanks for joining me. I have been looking forward to

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Speaker 2: this conversation and we just spent so much time talking

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Speaker 2: off offline, but let's just jump right into it. I

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Speaker 2: have a bunch of topics and questions for you, but anyway,

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Speaker 2: thanks for coming on. Appreciate it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, thanks Mak. I'm glad we finally got to do this.

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Speaker 1: It's been a couple of months in the miking.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Well we tried to hook up in Australia last

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Speaker 2: year and then yeah, we're trying to connect here. But

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Speaker 2: you know, I love the research that you do. I

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Speaker 2: love the research that you do and real vision does

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Speaker 2: I know in the bitcoin space a lot of people

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Speaker 2: just don't like raw Paul, and they don't like real vision.

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Speaker 2: But I think I think you guys do great work there.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna buy your NFTs, but I appreciate that.

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Speaker 2: I appreciate the macro research.

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Speaker 1: I don't know ye all right, I know rale of

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Speaker 1: those NFTs.

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Speaker 2: But let's just let's jump right at the top and

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Speaker 2: try to understand where we're at in the cycle where

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Speaker 2: we're going macro for your cycles, Global equidy, bitcoin, crypto, bitcoin,

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Speaker 2: treasury companies, dats all that. So let's let's start at

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Speaker 2: the top though. So you know, I love the macro

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Speaker 2: research that you guys do. Why don't we just start off?

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Speaker 2: Can you just frame out where we're at right now?

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Speaker 2: This is nine fifteen, We're about a couple of days

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Speaker 2: away from Jerome Powell to FED making some of a

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Speaker 2: big announcement. Where are we at in this macro cycle

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Speaker 2: right now? Frame it up?

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Speaker 1: Yes, sir, I mean we if people are following sort

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Speaker 1: of the stationary models for crypto, then we're at pika

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Speaker 1: cycle right. This is the time which bitcoin would typically

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Speaker 1: pake and we'd be sliding into a bear market sort

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Speaker 1: of by next year. Now, this cycle has been very,

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Speaker 1: very different. We can talk about what a cycle actually

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Speaker 1: means in crypto because it does mean different things to

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Speaker 1: different people, but also people are now hyper sensitized to

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Speaker 1: the word cycle, and therefore everyone talks about it. This

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Speaker 1: where I think we are, though, is at the We're

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Speaker 1: in the latest stages of the bullmarket, Like this is

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Speaker 1: not where easy gains are made anymore. Bitcoin is six

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Speaker 1: x from the lows in twenty twenty two, but I

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Speaker 1: still think there is more upside. And the reason why

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Speaker 1: I think there is more upside for bitcoin and for

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Speaker 1: other crypto assets is that, you know, we've had a

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Speaker 1: extraordinary or a very different period coming out of the

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Speaker 1: coming out of the last bullmarket, which was really just

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Speaker 1: a hangover from the excess liquidity that was pumped into

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Speaker 1: the system because of the COVID madness. So the fallout

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Speaker 1: obviously has been higher consumer price inflation, but also a

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Speaker 1: deficit in the US and in most West and governments

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Speaker 1: that has exceeded the growth in economic growth. And therefore,

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Speaker 1: you know, you've got a problem with too much debt,

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Speaker 1: not enough liquidity. A business cycle, which is incredibly important

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Speaker 1: and ties into the cryptocycle that has been more or

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Speaker 1: less been in sort of has flatlined, hasn't really been

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Speaker 1: an expansion phase. It's the longest period where the business

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Speaker 1: cycle has remained all the ism has remained under fifty,

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Speaker 1: but that has changed the I guess the duration of

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Speaker 1: the cycle. And therefore we're at a point now where

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Speaker 1: it's clear that the business cycle is starting to improve.

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Speaker 1: Corporate earnings are you know, dramatically improving. Positioning in risk

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Speaker 1: assets if you look at equities is not ephoric. And

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Speaker 1: you've got this problem that the central banks are patently

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Speaker 1: aware of that they have a system which is incredibly

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Speaker 1: indebted within amount of debt has increased way more, and

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Speaker 1: then the liquidity they've allowed back into the system through

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Speaker 1: interest rate policies or through central bank balance sheet activities,

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Speaker 1: and I think that gives us a liquidity impulse in

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Speaker 1: upsurch towards the end of this year and into next year.

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Speaker 1: So my view is that we this you know, this

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Speaker 1: market extends into sort of the first half of next year,

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Speaker 1: and then it's sort of anyone scares as to where

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Speaker 1: the peak might be. But we at real Vision have

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Speaker 1: the frameworks basically to outline probabilistically when things are going

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Speaker 1: to turn right.

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Speaker 2: Would you say that things would you say that global

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Speaker 2: macro markets fundamentally changed in two thousand and eight, so

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Speaker 2: we got the introduction of QE, we got all the

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Speaker 2: central bank balance sheets have been overly extended, levered up

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Speaker 2: at this point, and it looks like, in my opinion,

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Speaker 2: you know, previous to two thousand and eight, they sort

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Speaker 2: of allowed the markets to sort of deleverage, which they

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Speaker 2: tried to do in two thousand and eight and things

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Speaker 2: fell apart too fast, and they said, oh, we can't

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Speaker 2: do that, right, we levered the system back up, and

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Speaker 2: since then twenty nineteen, obviously twenty twenty, the banking collapse

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three, any time there's been even the

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Speaker 2: slightest hint of some sort of deleveraging. The bank's collapse

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three, it took six days to get

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Speaker 2: a bell out, and it just seems that now the

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Speaker 2: system has become so levered up. But not just that,

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Speaker 2: the appetite, the willingness to allow any deleveraging has also changed.

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Speaker 2: The amount of tools that they've implemented to prevent that

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Speaker 2: de leveraging have been radically changed, especially since COVID and

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Speaker 2: you mentioned the amount of deficit spending and debt spending

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Speaker 2: that's really driving the market. So do you think that

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Speaker 2: you know, this four year cycle could be changed based

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Speaker 2: off of the government's ability to stop adding liquidity or

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Speaker 2: wanting to stop adding liquidity, or willingness to Is it

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Speaker 2: like almost like a policy thing.

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Speaker 1: Well, I mean I always talk about investing as really

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Speaker 1: playing like this game of chicken with central banks, Like

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Speaker 1: we know that, we know what the game plan is,

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Speaker 1: and so I think that they're always going to step in.

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Speaker 1: And now you've got the government, you know this, We're

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Speaker 1: in a sort of fiscal dominance regime. That's been a

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Speaker 1: that's been the shift. I think that's probably most important

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Speaker 1: to understand in terms of cycle work, because if you

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Speaker 1: think about cycles being driven by liquidity, yes, the bitcoint

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Speaker 1: harving definitely drove cycles, but it's become less and less important.

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Speaker 1: But it also just happened to coincide with this cycle,

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Speaker 1: which the liquidity cycle, which tends to operate in a

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Speaker 1: three to five year time frame. Yeah, everyone says it's

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Speaker 1: like four years, but really, why is it on a

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Speaker 1: three to five year time range. It's because it's based

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Speaker 1: on the duration of the debt at the sovereign level.

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Speaker 1: Now sovereigns will take out will fund themselves through an

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Speaker 1: array of different maturities, but were sort of the average

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Speaker 1: has been around this sort of three to five period.

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Speaker 1: That's just what has looked like a four year cycle,

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Speaker 1: which was attributed to the bitcoin harving cycle. I think

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Speaker 1: it look I think it was always there. If you

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Speaker 1: go back to nineteen ninety eight. There was a recent

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Speaker 1: report which I think you that you got as well,

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Speaker 1: which I published, was looking at sort of what happened

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Speaker 1: in ninety ninety eight around LTCM. The central banks have

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Speaker 1: always been willing to step in, but they the events

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Speaker 1: were so infrequent or relatively infrequent as compared to it today,

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Speaker 1: that they were generally slower. But they show they always

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Speaker 1: showed their true colors. I mean, they've got this dual mandate,

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Speaker 1: which I think is a facade. The actual mandate is

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Speaker 1: to ensure that there is no default of the system

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Speaker 1: yep right, because they are in the case of the US,

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Speaker 1: there definitely a private entity. It's different setups around the

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Speaker 1: world for other central banks, but essentially they're they're just

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Speaker 1: to prop up the banks, the commercial banking sector. So

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Speaker 1: the cycle itself now is because of fiscal dominance, is

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Speaker 1: morphing again. And this is a This is work that

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Speaker 1: you know, we're looking at Rale's definitely looking at it.

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Speaker 1: You know, Ral and I do independent researcher but it's

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Speaker 1: all on the real Vision platform. But we have sort

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Speaker 1: of the same frameworks that he's informed me so much

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Speaker 1: in my process over the years. But I was having

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Speaker 1: this conversation with him just the other day. It's like,

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Speaker 1: you know, now, that's so much of the liquidity is

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Speaker 1: now being driven out of the Treasury by issuing short

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Speaker 1: term debt. What does that mean for the liquidity cycle?

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Speaker 1: The traditional liquidity cycle where you know, they used to

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Speaker 1: operate on a fairly standard maturity sort of program and

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Speaker 1: we could sort of time it within sort of three

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Speaker 1: to five years, and it's changed. And so I think

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Speaker 1: that not only was the excessive reaction to COVID the

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Speaker 1: reason why we've got an elongated cycle this time around,

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Speaker 1: but also now the US since twenty twenty two, with

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Speaker 1: the Treasury doing what it's been doing, you know, maybe

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Speaker 1: these cycles get shortened. Maybe there's more volatility because once

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Speaker 1: you start stuffing in all the debt of the short

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Speaker 1: term at the short end, Yeah, stable coins are great.

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Speaker 1: That's going to find a whole new bunch of buyers

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Speaker 1: for the toxic debt of the US. But anything that

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Speaker 1: goes wrong, you know, is much more it's susceptible to

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Speaker 1: cause flash points in the in the financial system because

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Speaker 1: they'll need to be very very quick to step in,

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Speaker 1: even more so and even more unorthodox than before. So

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Speaker 1: the Fed's just basically tied to the US debt wagon

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Speaker 1: at this point.

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Speaker 2: So they are you seen something changed in two thousand

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Speaker 2: and eight and it's.

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Speaker 1: A and eight when basically the US government took on

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Speaker 1: the debt of the private of the banks.

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Speaker 2: So with the short term debt that we have building up,

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Speaker 2: and there the leverage has been built up that can't

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Speaker 2: unlever their willingness to act potentially anything, any disruption that comes,

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Speaker 2: they're going to step in right away, just like we've

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Speaker 2: seen in the past, and that could disrupt these cycles

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Speaker 2: as we've as we've known them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I just think that what the Treasury

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Speaker 1: has done is new and that needs to be incorporated

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Speaker 1: in sort of forward thinking about what cycles will look like.

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Speaker 1: But like the trajectory doesn't change.

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Speaker 2: Because it's not just the it's not just the US Treasury,

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Speaker 2: right because like in London, for example, the BOE has

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Speaker 2: been cutting rates but like the long end is blowing out, right,

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Speaker 2: So we see other other central banks that are like

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Speaker 2: getting maybe losing control of their bond market. Japan's having

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Speaker 2: a problem with theirs, and so what happens then they

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Speaker 2: have to start printing to control that long end of

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Speaker 2: the curve. And and anyways, that's kind of some of

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Speaker 2: the some of the things that I'm thinking about, Like,

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Speaker 2: I feel like the cycle is an effect until it's

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Speaker 2: proven to be otherwise. But there's a lot of things

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Speaker 2: that are happening that seems like maybe it just won't

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Speaker 2: play out exactly click we thought it did before.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well it's already that's already proven to be the case.

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Speaker 1: If you held the view going into this year or

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Speaker 1: this circle was that it was going to be a

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Speaker 1: standard four year cycle.

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Speaker 2: Right, So as you said, I think when you first

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Speaker 2: kind of opened up, you said, I forget the word

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Speaker 2: that you use. But if you looked at these things

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Speaker 2: kind of frozen in time, we should be peeking right

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Speaker 2: around here somewhere in the next month or two. But

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Speaker 2: these are moving targets, right, And so it's like, well,

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Speaker 2: let's just see what happens in Q one and we'll

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Speaker 2: let you know in q one sort of what the

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Speaker 2: policy is at that point. Every day we see headlines

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Speaker 2: about inflation and dead and diminishing control over our own money.

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Speaker 3: That's why I always come back to bitcoin, because it's

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Speaker 3: built for generations, it's built for legacy.

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Speaker 2: But protecting your bitcoin legacy the right way.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, I don't think that's you know,

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Speaker 1: the same like the risk models that I have built

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Speaker 1: around bitcoin. You know Dydite's screen euphoria. We had euphoria

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Speaker 1: in sort of Q four of twenty twenty four. So look,

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Speaker 1: if the cycle ends, we'll all look back and say

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Speaker 1: Q four was really the top in the un chain

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Speaker 1: data and all the risk metrics in the same way

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Speaker 1: as May of twenty twenty one was really that was

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Speaker 1: the real top of that cycle because it took out

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Speaker 1: all the momentum and so yes, we went higher. But

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Speaker 1: you know, there isn't really in this the most recent

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Speaker 1: run up to one hundred and twenty five thousand in bitcoin,

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Speaker 1: there wasn't really a there wasn't screaming euphoria.

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Speaker 2: One of the.

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Speaker 1: Reasons maybe we can get into as to why there's

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Speaker 1: been sort of I guess momentum destruction underneath the surface

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Speaker 1: of the price has been the marginal buyers being bitcoin

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Speaker 1: treasury companies and the ETFs peeking into that cycle and

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Speaker 1: then then basically you know, declining quite rapidly since then.

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Speaker 1: So that is that is the critical swing factor for bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: But that will follow the liquidity cycles, SORR. If liquidity

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Speaker 1: picks up, the ETF buys will return, the bitcoin treasury

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Speaker 1: companies will see maybe not fooling m nabs, maybe expansion,

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Speaker 1: who knows, but their capacity to buy and become, you know,

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Speaker 1: and get more involved in buying bitcoin will increase.

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Speaker 2: I want to definitely get back into that topic a

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Speaker 2: little bit more, but before we do, I'm curious what

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Speaker 2: you think about bitcoin's KAGAR. So depending on what time

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Speaker 2: period you take a look at, right, maybe it's a

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Speaker 2: fifty to sixty percent annual compound and annual growth rate

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Speaker 2: over the last three years, three to five years, maybe

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Speaker 2: eighty five percent if you go back five years plus.

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Speaker 2: The general rule of thumb seems to be that the

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Speaker 2: law of large numbers says that that number continues to decelerate,

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Speaker 2: and we go from eighty to sixty to fifty to

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Speaker 2: forty to thirty, et cetera. What do you think about

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Speaker 2: or have you thought about the potential for Kagar to

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Speaker 2: actually start to reaccelerate again. And the reason why I

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Speaker 2: asked that is if you think about like traditional assets

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Speaker 2: that would be probably started from venture capital round and

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Speaker 2: they've got all the private equity money in before they

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Speaker 2: go public, and then you start having retail, which is

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Speaker 2: small incremental money that kind of comes in, and so

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Speaker 2: as the asset gets bigger, it's big checks first, small

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Speaker 2: checks later, whereas like Bitcoin seem to work the other

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Speaker 2: way around, where it was little checks in the beginning.

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Speaker 2: And today to your point that you just brought up

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Speaker 2: about the bitcoin treasury companies, now we have billions of

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Speaker 2: dollars of buyas coming in at a time, and so

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Speaker 2: now with the treasury companies, with the institutions, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 2: the detfs, with even sovereigns coming in, could we be

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Speaker 2: sort of, you know, looking at technology with an S

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Speaker 2: curve type format. Could we sort of be in that

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Speaker 2: pair of ball at phase with the big checks coming

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Speaker 2: in that could potentially invert bitcoin and see that Kaggar

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Speaker 2: start to accelerate it again a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I think what's offsetting that hypolthsis mac is that you've

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Speaker 1: got now you know, in the early stages ying spot

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Speaker 1: buying only and you had sort of the uniqueness of

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Speaker 1: the hardcap as well with the declining inflation rate, that

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Speaker 1: was perfect for parabolic rises, especially when it was just

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Speaker 1: the plubs us buying it. Then as more as the

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Speaker 1: as the network evolved and I guess more sophisticated players.

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Speaker 2: The futures, the options, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: Suppressing the volatility. So you know, I even look at

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Speaker 1: the the research that I do. I look at the

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Speaker 1: elasticity of bitcoin to changes in liquidity, which is, you know,

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Speaker 1: anyone who says there's a perfect metric or perfect correlation

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Speaker 1: in financial markets doesn't nate certain financial markets because markets

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Speaker 1: are nonstationary. But at least historically and still today, the

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Speaker 1: relationship with liquidity is statistically extremely significant, but it is

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Speaker 1: moderating over time, and so looking at sort of just

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Speaker 1: the last couple of years, bitcoins elasticity to the changes

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Speaker 1: in liquidity is less this cycle than in the last cycle,

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Speaker 1: but not by a massive amount. And just where we

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Speaker 1: are in the liquidity cycle is typically when you start

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Speaker 1: to see a real uptick, and therefore the elasticity generally

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Speaker 1: expands also during this period, but more so in the

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Speaker 1: same sort of scenario from previous cycles. So I just

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Speaker 1: look at that and I think, Okay, you've got suppression

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Speaker 1: of volatility, and you've got just the maturation of the

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Speaker 1: market and the sensitivity of the asset to the drivers

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Speaker 1: of the price starting to decline. So I am in

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Speaker 1: the camp that we start to see k gars moderate

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Speaker 1: over time. But it's going to be interesting because there

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Speaker 1: will be explosions of volatility in and along the way.

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Speaker 1: And if you look at like, you know why you

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Speaker 1: invest in the S and P five hundred from a

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Speaker 1: traditional portfolio management standpoint is that you stay allocated because

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Speaker 1: if you try to time that market, generally like nine

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Speaker 1: percent of the returns come from like ten trading days

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Speaker 1: in the year. Same applies for bitcoin, and we will

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Speaker 1: see like massive volatility expansion at certain times, like we

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Speaker 1: saw in twenty twenty three with the bank bailout, and

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Speaker 1: the first time that bitcoin basically gave the signal that

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Speaker 1: this is a systemically integrated asset with real risk of

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Speaker 1: characteristics because the interbank market exploded. Bitcoin always fell in

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Speaker 1: those scenarios, it didn't that time, So it was another

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Speaker 1: sort of proving point, and I think we'll see a

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Speaker 1: lot more tests like that where Bitcoin will show that

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Speaker 1: it is truly a risk of affort asset and sort

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Speaker 1: of shrud the criticism that it's just a you know,

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Speaker 1: it's a risk asset correlator to the Nasdaq, which is

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Speaker 1: not true.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, certainly, in the last five years, the

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Speaker 2: sharp ra show has been much better than US treasuries,

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Speaker 2: and we can see how since the introduction of the ETFs,

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Speaker 2: the volatility has really come way down, so as it's

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Speaker 2: like we could just continue just sort of being boring

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Speaker 2: and just continue creeping.

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Speaker 1: Higher and higher and higher.

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Speaker 2: You know, maybe you mentioned the global liquidity and some

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Speaker 2: of the elasticity that sort of diminished their real vision.

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Speaker 2: Ral talks a lot about global equity flows and sort

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Speaker 2: of this potentially whatever eight to twelve week lag that

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Speaker 2: Bitcoin might have to that global equity move. And so

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Speaker 2: when you look at this global equity move right now

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Speaker 2: and then adjust for this lag, I mean, it looks

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Speaker 2: like there should still be a pretty another big leg

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Speaker 2: up in front of us.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, I mean the problem with using the lags

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Speaker 1: is that markets on nonstationary, so change of its time,

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Speaker 1: but directionally it should play out unless there's something fundamentally

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Speaker 1: different about this asset that we're not aware of, and

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Speaker 1: that it's not tied to, you know, the increase in

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Speaker 1: marginal new units of currency in the in the financial system,

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Speaker 1: which I don't believe to be true. Sorry, that the

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Speaker 1: problem is that twitters as attached itself to this chart.

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Speaker 1: I think it's been in the most shared chart of

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, and it's fixated on the on the lags.

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Speaker 1: You know, Rawl said this many times and I would

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Speaker 1: certainly say it as well as like, if you're trying

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Speaker 1: to invest on one chart with one correlation fixed with

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Speaker 1: a fixed timeline that's been working for the last two years,

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Speaker 1: then you're gonna you're gonna come on stuck. Yeah, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're right like that that the divergence between the two

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Speaker 1: is as expanded, and it's not just M two, which

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Speaker 1: I think is the most shared sort of version of that.

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Speaker 1: It's total global liquidity. So you know, you're looking at

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Speaker 1: central bank balance sheets, you're looking at the impact in

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Speaker 1: the shadow banking market and everything else.

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Speaker 2: So when you look at that, and to your point,

404
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Speaker 2: certainly don't don't just focus on one indicator, But if

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Speaker 2: you look at that plus a handful of other indicators

406
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Speaker 2: that are commonly used, like MVRV scores for example, or

407
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,400
Speaker 2: even if you want to look at Fibonacci lines, which

408
00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,399
Speaker 2: I don't really put a lot of credit towards those things,

409
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Speaker 2: but you look at some of these Neurpal scores or whatever,

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Speaker 2: it does sort of look like Bitcoin is maybe halfway

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Speaker 2: through its cycle. Like from a is it expensive? Is

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Speaker 2: it cheap? You look at the M two lag. If

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Speaker 2: you look at again these types of indicators you mentioned that,

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Speaker 2: you know, from a static time frame like October November

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Speaker 2: sort of peak from a timeframe, but from a like

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Speaker 2: I said, all these on chain indicators, et cetera, it

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Speaker 2: looks like maybe we're like halfway through. And so again

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Speaker 2: that's from a static view. Now we could see Bitcoin

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Speaker 2: go on a thirty forty thousand dollars rip, which would

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Speaker 2: then put it to the very top of the top

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Speaker 2: of the peak real quickly, which then maybe does make

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Speaker 2: me think, well, maybe it does hit that M two lag.

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Speaker 2: We do pop up, We do end up magically right

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Speaker 2: in November here at the at the top of the

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Speaker 2: at the top of cycle.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the best thing for bigcoin, if you're

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Speaker 1: in it for the long hole is that you get

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Speaker 1: sort of a moderate increase, because it's when Bitcoin goys

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Speaker 1: parabolic that you generally find the crescendo top because that's

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Speaker 1: what encourages over positioning, increased leverage, which always gets unwound.

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Speaker 1: And if it's unwound at a time and global liquidity

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Speaker 1: is starting to slow or decelerate, it doesn't have to top.

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Speaker 1: Global equidity can expand well beyond a Bitcoin peak, and

435
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 1: it has in the past. It's really about that subtle

436
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:28,199
Speaker 1: change or that rate of change. But if you have

437
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 1: the ingredients of a parabolic rise with a massive explosion

438
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,959
Speaker 1: and open interest and mvrve goes up, which is all

439
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,679
Speaker 1: the unrealized profit in the network, then you have the

440
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 1: ingredients to form a top. This peak has been you know,

441
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:48,440
Speaker 1: we saw you for it tops in intermediate or mid

442
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,439
Speaker 1: cycle tops in Q one to twenty twenty four, and

443
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:53,639
Speaker 1: I was calling it out then in Q four of

444
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four again, which I was calling out again,

445
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 1: which no one was willing to listen because the timing

446
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:05,399
Speaker 1: of financial contnitions to the US dollar and liquidity was

447
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 1: just not supporting it. But you know where global liquidity

448
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 1: is today and where it kind of needs to get

449
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 1: to to stop anything from happening. Is still a fair

450
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 1: way away. So it's I think that the trend itself

451
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 1: is looking you know, it's tired because it does rely

452
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 1: on liquidity. But we haven't seen a far ad powerbolic

453
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 1: rise that would just take the wind out of the

454
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:31,199
Speaker 1: sales for the rest of the cycle.

455
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 2: One more question about this and then we're going to

456
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 2: move to a different subject. But Trump is the force

457
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 2: to be reckoned with. He has been very aggressive towards

458
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 2: Jerome Powell at the FED, lower rates, lower rates. He

459
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 2: calls him names like too late, et cetera. Right, He's

460
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,640
Speaker 2: been extremely vocal. He wants rates, I don't know, three

461
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 2: and a half points lower than where they're at today.

462
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 2: It looks like potentially Power is going to cave. Maybe

463
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:57,879
Speaker 2: we get a couple of rates cuts this year, but

464
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 2: it seems like one way or another, Trump's are you

465
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:01,679
Speaker 2: going to get his way? We know Power will be

466
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 2: out next year. He'll replace him with a dove and

467
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 2: he'll probably get his way, and maybe this time next

468
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 2: year rates are three points lower in that scenario hypothetical,

469
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 2: would that be enough the US acting alone to influence

470
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 2: the direction of that global liquidy.

471
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 1: Oh massively, because if the dollar continues to decline, and

472
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 1: so it's already had a pretty historic move in twenty

473
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 1: twenty five from sort of one oh seven and I

474
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 1: think it got even high. It's down down ninety seven.

475
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 1: That's a big move, and the dollar it doesn't look

476
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:39,240
Speaker 1: like that move is over. But if the US were

477
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:42,439
Speaker 1: to aggressively cut and I think the more important than

478
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 1: the interest rate moves is the balance sheet moves like

479
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,680
Speaker 1: they're they're still doing QT now that the margins it's

480
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 1: fairly small relative to where it was in the past,

481
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 1: but it's still tightening the balance sheet, which is putting

482
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 1: pressure on the financial system, and so that if there's

483
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:01,440
Speaker 1: a pivot there, it would be very meaningful for total

484
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 1: global liquidity. It's driven by the dollar, it's driven by

485
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:08,399
Speaker 1: balance sheets, is driven by volatility in the in the

486
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 1: treasury market. So all those things would be very very supportive.

487
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 1: But it would also give other central banks to cover

488
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 1: to do more. So China wants a you know, basically

489
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 1: the US to continue to do so that gives them

490
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 1: cover and takes the pressure off off their currency as well.

491
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 1: They already have been aggressive, they need to be a

492
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:34,400
Speaker 1: lot more aggressive, arguably, and I think the US move

493
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 1: would just provide the cover and it would be it'd

494
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,680
Speaker 1: be open season again and would get a pretty big impulse.

495
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,679
Speaker 2: So again we'll pivot from here. But I just I

496
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 2: think Trump seems to get his way. He's a forest

497
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,120
Speaker 2: and I'm guessing he's going to get a fed chair

498
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:50,920
Speaker 2: and that he wants seeing as he gets to elect them,

499
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 2: and we could see a sustained draw down all the

500
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 2: way through next year. The Dixie is is low, as

501
00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:00,679
Speaker 2: you said, but it's still historically pretty high, so I

502
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 2: mean we have quite a bit of room to come down.

503
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 2: That's what he wants. We'll see. So these are move

504
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 2: I'm going to just put a pin in this for everybody.

505
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 2: These are moving targets. You can't ask anybody to predict

506
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 2: where this comes out. These are moving targets. We look

507
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 2: at it, you know, as these indicators roll out, I

508
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,679
Speaker 2: want to jump into the next thing. Obviously staying on

509
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 2: bitcoin for a minute. But one indicator that I think

510
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 2: is sort of ridiculous, but it seems to work is

511
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 2: bitcoin dominance. And I say it's ridiculous just because like

512
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 2: today on coin Mark in twenty seventeen, if I can remember,

513
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 2: it was like two thousand cryptocurrencies. Today on coin market

514
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 2: cap is like nineteen million, So it's like every time

515
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 2: one new gets created, it brings bitcoin dominance down. So

516
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 2: it seems like kind of like an irrelevant metric in

517
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 2: my opinion. But that being said, in June, around what

518
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 2: June thirteenth, June fifteenth, we saw bitcoin dominance drop ethereum,

519
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 2: and really maybe a better indicator is ethereum. Bitcoin ethereum

520
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 2: seemed to take off with the right of ethereum dat

521
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:03,959
Speaker 2: and then all the bitcoin proxies as they call them,

522
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 2: all the bitcoin treasury companies all sold off at the

523
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 2: same time. So while I like to think the indicator

524
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 2: somewhat irrelevant, it sure seemed to indicate quite a lot

525
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:13,640
Speaker 2: here what's going on with that.

526
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:19,199
Speaker 1: So bitcoin dominant is really like to the point that

527
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 1: you're making about sort of the explosion in supply are

528
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,680
Speaker 1: in the sort of the old coin crypto universe. Yes,

529
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:30,399
Speaker 1: all of that takes attention away and distributes attention, which

530
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 1: I guess you know, makes it harder like if it

531
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 1: was a more concentrated space, But like that's just the

532
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 1: better or for worse, it's just a reflection of the

533
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 1: growing adoption and expanding footprint that crypto has in the

534
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 1: economy and in the lives of individuals, especially younger generation.

535
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 1: The bitcoin dominance chart is really a I wouldn't think about.

536
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 1: I wouldn't think in terms of like the explosion in

537
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 1: supply of all the the you know, the worthless mean

538
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 1: coins and all that sure crap. But it's really a

539
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 1: reflection of large caps in crypto versus bitcoin. So it

540
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 1: what it shows is is Ethereum and the other large

541
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 1: caps starting to outperform. And the pattern plays out almost

542
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 1: every cycle once you get once you get to the

543
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 1: point where you know the business cycle, the economy is growing,

544
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 1: corporate profits are expanding and they're beating expectations. Margins are improving,

545
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 1: cap x is improving. Generally, you have a broadening out

546
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 1: of risk. It's just human nature. And so whether you

547
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 1: sort of see value in some of these other large caps,

548
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 1: you do find at this point in the cycle is

549
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 1: when they start to outperform. And that's what we started

550
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 1: to see in sort of July, and you could see

551
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: it in the ETF flows. There's basically a flip that happened,

552
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 1: and I think, you know, it was it was clear

553
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 1: that ethereum relative to bitcoin had also become undervalued, and

554
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 1: so whether that continues over time, it usually starts to

555
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 1: It usually signals the last part of a bull market

556
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 1: because as that risk gets broadened out, and then you

557
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 1: know the increase in sort of a tension that it

558
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 1: goes across the crypto ecosystem. It brings sort of reflexivity

559
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 1: that brings us closer to a top, and then everything

560
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 1: underperforms in the next bear market. Now, maybe these assets

561
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 1: don't underperform as much in the next bear market because

562
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 1: there is legitimate adoption taking place as much as there

563
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 1: is fuck ay going on in the activity and data.

564
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 1: It's unquestionable from my standpoint that adoption of blockchains is

565
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 1: proliferating at a real clip, and therefore, you know what

566
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 1: happens in the next bear market. I don't know, but

567
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 1: like the volatility is so much high, you have to

568
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 1: make sure that you're thoughtful around your position sizes if

569
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 1: you do want to go into that spies.

570
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 2: It seemed back back to your point about this end

571
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 2: of the business cycle and the money sort of moving

572
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 2: out on the risk curve, which of course makes sense.

573
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 2: It seemed like you know, a couple things. So like

574
00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 2: number one, like when you're an institution that wants to

575
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 2: place a billion dollars, I don't think you can put

576
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 2: a billion dollars into Sibi NU. Right, So it's like

577
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:23,959
Speaker 2: it seemed like the bitcoin treasury companies were sort of

578
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 2: like that next speculative play, right, a more volatile play

579
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 2: than bitcoin. So bitcoin's a one x there are three

580
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 2: or five x kind of a play, right, So it's

581
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 2: sort of like the same potential volatility crypto returns, but

582
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 2: in a regulated body. And it seemed like a lot

583
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,719
Speaker 2: of those crypto digons, the bitcoin degens latched onto all

584
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 2: of these bigwoin treasury companies that were up, I mean

585
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 2: half a dozen of them more up were up you know,

586
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 2: three thousand percent, five thousand percent, eight thousand percent. Right.

587
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 2: Metaplanet was the very best performing stock in the world

588
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 2: last year. Equity. Yeah, but then when you see bitcoin

589
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 2: dominance roll over, like they all just fell flat on

590
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 2: their face. And so to the point that you're making

591
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 2: about it moved further out the risk curve. I don't

592
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 2: know if that's necessarily accurate, because, like I would say

593
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 2: that those companies were pretty far out the risk curve.

594
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I mean that so there was I think

595
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 1: that mini, that mini bubble that took place inside the

596
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 1: bigcoin ecosystem that drew in maybe capital that would have

597
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 1: found its way into the wider crypto economy and some

598
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 1: of these other smart contract platforms and applications, but actually

599
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 1: found themselves in the bigcoin treasury companies. But that also

600
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,480
Speaker 1: let you know, that's also reflexive as well, So there

601
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 1: was an increase in supply of these companies and attention

602
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 1: and all is good once the demand is there, and

603
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 1: that becomes the new marginal buyer and driver of the

604
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 1: bigcoin price, even more so than the ETF flows at

605
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 1: least there was in Q two and parts of Q

606
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 1: three this year. But if there's amount of compression, it

607
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 1: just becomes harder to maintain the buying velocity, and then

608
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 1: you sort of get that reflexive move where you've got

609
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 1: less at the margin buying from that segment, and that

610
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 1: slows down the price. Appreciation markets are a funny thing.

611
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 1: They're like they're you know, they allocate capital, you know,

612
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 1: in ways that you perhaps can't sort of foresee.

613
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 2: They're not rational.

614
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 1: It's sort of like a mini it's a mini. It's

615
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 1: a microcosm of like what's happening in previous cycles.

616
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, while while your point makes a sound,

617
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously those bigcoins social companies were buying an

618
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 2: enormous amount of bitcoins specifically, I mean micro strategy most

619
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 2: of all and Metal Planet were buying a lot as well,

620
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 2: and the atfs were also buying a lot. But no

621
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 2: matter how much they were buying, the price didn't seem

622
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 2: to be going up. In combination with that, it seemed

623
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 2: like there was enough sellers for as much additional buying

624
00:33:55,960 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 2: as there was, right so, but we did see the buying.

625
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 2: We saw a couple of times, was it eighty thousand

626
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 2: bitcoin in a single day got dumped in and absorbed,

627
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 2: you know, with only a couple of points being moved

628
00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:11,320
Speaker 2: here and there. But you know, my main thing.

629
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:15,399
Speaker 1: That peak in like Q one was off the charts. Yeah,

630
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 1: I mean what macro strategy were in terms of the

631
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 1: marginal buyer. And then really in a que too was

632
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 1: the new treasury companies. I don't know if we can

633
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 1: ever see that. You know, it's not so much how

634
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 1: much they were buying, it's the rate of change or

635
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 1: the acceleration of the buying at that point in time

636
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 1: that it was like the most interesting and that peak

637
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 1: if you look at it on a just a rate

638
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:40,800
Speaker 1: of change basis, was off the charts.

639
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 2: Yeah. Although when you can look at like Bitcoin Treasuries

640
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:47,800
Speaker 2: dot net and see all the public traded companies with bitcoin,

641
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 2: and if you take out the top couple, I mean

642
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:52,279
Speaker 2: really just take out micro Strategy and take up metaplanet.

643
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 2: The buying. Sure, the rate of change was a lot,

644
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 2: like companies were going from two to four to twenty

645
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 2: four to one hundred, so the rate of change what

646
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 2: they call the bitcoin yield, was dramatic, but it was

647
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 2: like you bought twenty four Michael Strategy was buying you know,

648
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 2: fifteen thousand at a time or whatever. It's a little

649
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 2: bit different, but my interest is mostly there. So let

650
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:14,319
Speaker 2: me see if you can tell me the future. Where

651
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,359
Speaker 2: where does this go? I mean, do you think that

652
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:19,360
Speaker 2: you know, at the lead stage of the cycle bitcoin

653
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 2: dominance returns, do you think money comes back to some

654
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:26,400
Speaker 2: of these proxies or was it sort of like this, Uh,

655
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 2: you know, obviously with crypto we have these bubbles, these cycles.

656
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 2: If you will, do you think this is like, you know,

657
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 2: first part of the cycle, shake some of the players out,

658
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:38,319
Speaker 2: and then build up energy for the next one. What

659
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 2: do you think happens when bitcoin dominance returns and what

660
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 2: kind of time frame we're looking at.

661
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:45,439
Speaker 1: If liquidity is rising, bitcoin will rise. But I think

662
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 1: we're in that stage of the cycle where your start

663
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:51,840
Speaker 1: just continue to continue to see outperformance from some of

664
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 1: the other crypto assets. It's just the way it generally

665
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 1: plays out. I think for the bitcoin treasury companies, the

666
00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 1: will managed one. There'll be like a delineation and you'll

667
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 1: start to see sort of a divergence. If you look

668
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: at all the bitcoin treasury companies in terms of percentiles

669
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:12,239
Speaker 1: of their m nabs, you'll see more of those companies

670
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:14,760
Speaker 1: start to drop into the bottom percentile. And that bottom

671
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 1: percentile in terms of m NAV will go from like

672
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,399
Speaker 1: you know, one m NAB today or less down too

673
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 1: point eight or less as they get sort of more

674
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 1: and more distressed or out of favor, and so they'll

675
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 1: just have to be a consolidation. And we'll look at

676
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 1: this period in the next cycle and see much less

677
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 1: companies that are pursuing this strategy, and you'll start to

678
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 1: see the winners more clearly affirmed. I guess by the

679
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:44,400
Speaker 1: market because you know you're involved in this space and

680
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 1: you know that well, I would imagine I'd like to

681
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 1: actually find out from you what you think about this.

682
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 1: But there's definitely going to be some acquisitions, scooping up,

683
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 1: going into sort of the the next bear market, and

684
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 1: consolidation in the space because you'll basically have the opportunity

685
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 1: to buoy bitcoin at a discount. So I think that's yeah,

686
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:06,240
Speaker 1: that's how I see it playing out.

687
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 2: I mean, certainly it's going to play out that way.

688
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:11,359
Speaker 2: But we're talking very broadly, right, So certainly there will

689
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 2: be companies who find themselves at a point in the

690
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:15,800
Speaker 2: road where they can't raise any more capital, they're trading

691
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 2: below that asset value, and someone's going to come along

692
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 2: make them an offer to give them an equity deal

693
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 2: buy out, and they're going to take it. So of

694
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:25,759
Speaker 2: course that's going to happen. Will that be the majority?

695
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 2: Probably not, not this early in the game, of my opinion.

696
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:32,320
Speaker 2: So a couple things. So number one, these are equities.

697
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 2: So just because the equity price drops, the market cap drops,

698
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 2: and they're below one time zim nav not ass a

699
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:43,399
Speaker 2: value forverybody, so they're keeping up Why does that mean

700
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:44,320
Speaker 2: I have to sell my bitcoin?

701
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 1: So what it? It's not buying Yeah, so what right?

702
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 2: Like, I have my business, I'm generating revenue. I'm gonna

703
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:52,879
Speaker 2: keep buying bitcoin. I still have my bitcoin. So what

704
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 2: Michael Saylor told me, he said, like, what's the worst

705
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 2: that can happen? The worst that can happen is I

706
00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 2: can never raise money ever again. And I'm a one

707
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 2: hundred billion dollar company growing at sixty percent. That's the worst, right.

708
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 2: So with our company with Satsuma, right, we raised enough

709
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 2: money to buy a two thousand bitcoin. I don't know

710
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 2: what you put the long term price target of bitcoin,

711
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 2: but in my opinion, that's about two billion dollars worth

712
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 2: of bitcoin in five or six years of just NAV alone,

713
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:28,760
Speaker 2: even if we never raise another penny again. Two billion

714
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:32,279
Speaker 2: of NAV. Now in the US, we have a word

715
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:34,840
Speaker 2: for them, We call them unicorns. If they reach a

716
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 2: billion dollar val less than I think it's zero point

717
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 2: zero zero two percent of companies ever make it to

718
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 2: a billion dollar valel So what's the worst that can happen?

719
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 2: We're a two billion dollar company in a couple years, right,

720
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,960
Speaker 2: So what's the shakeout? Why do you have to sell right,

721
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 2: So why are you distressed? So certainly, what's going to

722
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 2: happen in the space. I don't see it, but it

723
00:38:57,640 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 2: is going to happen. Is the nature of the game

724
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 2: is I have to apply leverage, which is how I

725
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 2: can earn that increase now. And some companies are too

726
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 2: far behind, so they're going to use more leverage than

727
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:11,879
Speaker 2: they should be, and they're gonna take a bad deal.

728
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:13,799
Speaker 2: It's gonna be short term. It's gonna be a two

729
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 2: year debt term obligation. They can't keep up with the debt.

730
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 2: It comes due at the bottom of the bear market.

731
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:22,280
Speaker 2: They're forced to liquidate. Certainly, that will happen. I haven't

732
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 2: seen that really built up yet, and I'm sort of

733
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 2: in tune with a lot of the companies here. It

734
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 2: will happen. But I just think about that, and certainly

735
00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:32,840
Speaker 2: to your point, yes, we'll see those those acquisitions happen.

736
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 2: I think it's a little bit early for that.

737
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,280
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, No, we're talking way down the line.

738
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 1: I think this is a golden opportunity to get in

739
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 1: and acquire bigcoin and put it on the balance sheet

740
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 1: and maximize the opportunity while their conditions were good, and

741
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 1: I just think that you know that even if this

742
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,880
Speaker 1: sort of gold rush is over, so to say, and

743
00:39:56,920 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 1: that there's delineation, was the right thing to do. You

744
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:06,399
Speaker 1: were using the capital markets to acqui the most important

745
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 1: global asset of generations.

746
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 2: But I think I think Jamian just just to also

747
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 2: expand this a little bit, just I mean, it's a

748
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 2: fun conversation to have, but I think there's a lot

749
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:19,839
Speaker 2: of tools at your disposal. So you think about, like

750
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:22,800
Speaker 2: if the capital markets close off to you, right, for example,

751
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 2: and certainly in a massive liquidity crunch, and the whole

752
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:28,839
Speaker 2: market sells off back to twenty twenty two or orse,

753
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 2: you know, twenty twenty or something like that, certainly it

754
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 2: could be hard to raise liquidity. But for the most part,

755
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:38,319
Speaker 2: like there's an I don't want to say unlimited. There's

756
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 2: a lot of money available just in taking convertible debt.

757
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:45,879
Speaker 2: For example, We're talking billions and billions of dollars sitting there.

758
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 2: I mean, we had people begging us to take their

759
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,680
Speaker 2: convertible debt and we were like, nope, we're not taking it.

760
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 2: So like in a bear market, we could use debt,

761
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 2: we could get it turned out of three years or

762
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 2: four years, right, I mean, we believe in the long term. Obviously,

763
00:40:57,719 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 2: none of this works if you don't believe in the

764
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 2: long term case of bitcoin. But sure, I'll take zero

765
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 2: percent debt for four years. I'll roll the dice on that, right,

766
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 2: So like we have that at our disposal. There's all

767
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 2: types of options. There's bonds, there's bitcoin bonds that are

768
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 2: being rolled out. Obviously, there's additional raises which get tough

769
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 2: in a liquidity cycle. There's equity raises you know at

770
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 2: the market offering, which are tough when your ymnats get compressed,

771
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 2: you know. And there's there's prefs and all different types.

772
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:24,280
Speaker 2: Is there's a whole bunch of tools that are available

773
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:27,879
Speaker 2: for good companies for good companies, that's right, So it'll

774
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 2: be it'll be interesting. I don't believe. I don't believe that.

775
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 2: I think it's if you look at Metaplanet, which is

776
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 2: the first company that was able to duplicate the strategy.

777
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:42,320
Speaker 2: They've had just in the last twelve months alone, they've

778
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:45,839
Speaker 2: had twelve draw downs or I'm sorry it was about

779
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 2: eighteen months and last eighteen months, I've had twelve drawdowns

780
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 2: of twenty percent or more. Seventy nine percent was their

781
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:57,280
Speaker 2: most profound draw down last year, their duration of lasted

782
00:41:57,280 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 2: anywhere from twenty days up to four months. One hundred

783
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 2: and nineteen day was the longest duration they've had. So

784
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:04,880
Speaker 2: instead of like one cycle every four years, they have

785
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 2: like six cycles a year. And the m NAB isn't

786
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:11,359
Speaker 2: the most important metric. I think a lot of people

787
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 2: put too much under that number. So for example, you

788
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:15,720
Speaker 2: could have bought Meta Planet last year at seven times

789
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 2: and made a ton of money, and you could have

790
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:19,279
Speaker 2: bought it two months ago at three and lost your

791
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 2: ass right, So it's like the MNAB doesn't mean everything.

792
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:24,759
Speaker 2: But you know, again, they had a seventy percent draw

793
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 2: down last year and returned to thousand after that, so

794
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 2: I think, you know, it's just part of the cycle.

795
00:42:28,760 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 2: It's they're extra volatile. That's why people buy them for

796
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:36,319
Speaker 2: the extra volatility. So it'll be interesting. But what do

797
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 2: you think about the dats and these are the digital

798
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:43,920
Speaker 2: asset treasuries, And let me let me frame up why

799
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 2: my audience obviously knows. For four years I wrote cryptocurrency research,

800
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:51,360
Speaker 2: I decided to be bitcoin only. I don't spend a

801
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 2: lot of time focusing on cryptocurrency anymore. It's all just bitcoin, right,

802
00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:58,879
Speaker 2: So I can't debate nineteen different, nineteen million different cryptocurrencies.

803
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 2: But I was in London two weeks ago and I

804
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 2: met somebody that's launching a Salona treasury, and you know,

805
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:08,920
Speaker 2: I kind of told you before recording. He told me,

806
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:10,600
Speaker 2: you know, he doesn't even know the bowcase of what

807
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 2: he's doing. But here's my thought on this. When I

808
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:17,759
Speaker 2: think about a Salona or or an Ethereum treasury, so

809
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 2: you know, bitcoin is a commodity, right, It's there's no

810
00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:25,640
Speaker 2: common issuer, there's nobody that pre mined it, nobody has

811
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:27,799
Speaker 2: that control of it, and it has as a has

812
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 2: a fixed supply right twenty one million. So I could

813
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:33,440
Speaker 2: see how a company would put a commodity on its

814
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:36,319
Speaker 2: treasury that'd bud goal, I'd put oil something like that.

815
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 2: But if you think about like Ethereum's bowl case, for example,

816
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:42,720
Speaker 2: it's like the World Computer, Right, we're gonna put everything

817
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 2: on top of it, and we're gonna do all the

818
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 2: smart contracts in this World computer, and Joseph Lubin and

819
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:50,360
Speaker 2: Metallic and Consensus, you know, they can control this algorithm

820
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:52,719
Speaker 2: and they're going to keep it working and blah blah

821
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:55,279
Speaker 2: blah whatever, right, the votes and all that. So it's

822
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:58,240
Speaker 2: like a tech company. So it's like it's like Apple,

823
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 2: Like Apple's three trillion, so like their market caap potential

824
00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:04,799
Speaker 2: is three trillion, like so like Bitcoin's going for money

825
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:07,680
Speaker 2: five hundred trillion. They're a tech company number one, number two.

826
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:10,000
Speaker 2: Like again, it makes sense to put like a commodity

827
00:44:10,040 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 2: on my balance sheet, But why would I put a

828
00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:14,359
Speaker 2: tech company, Like we don't see typically companies putting other

829
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 2: equities on their balance they're not allowed to. But it

830
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 2: wouldn't really make sense to put Apple under your You

831
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:22,319
Speaker 2: wouldn't create a treasury company around Apple maybe. And then

832
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:24,640
Speaker 2: and then the third point I'll ask, and then I'll

833
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 2: let you kind of respond to these. The third point

834
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:29,360
Speaker 2: is then back to you know, again, bitcoin is commodity

835
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 2: with no common issue or a pre mind, but also

836
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:34,240
Speaker 2: with a fixed supply. And then you have these assets

837
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 2: like ethereum that that doesn't really have a known supply.

838
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 2: And so I'm just curious, like, you know, I think

839
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:42,680
Speaker 2: you sort of believe in also those types of treasuries

840
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 2: as well, but like maybe you can film me in

841
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 2: on the bowl case and the other guy couldn't.

842
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I think, you know, so the way hard

843
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:54,000
Speaker 1: frame Ethereum and these other smart contract platforms is that

844
00:44:54,040 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 1: they are platforms, the application platforms, which is just essentially

845
00:44:58,239 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 1: a derivation of a tech of a tech company or

846
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:03,520
Speaker 1: a new type of tech company. So it requires a

847
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:06,680
Speaker 1: different framing when you're looking at them as an investment.

848
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:11,279
Speaker 1: And I think that Bigcoin obviously has owns that commodity

849
00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 1: framing because of the supply schedule and because of the

850
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 1: level of decentralization. Now with Ethereum and the Solanta and

851
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:26,920
Speaker 1: all these other platforms, you've got a case to be

852
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:30,719
Speaker 1: made that actually, you know, they are going through an

853
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:34,440
Speaker 1: adoption curve which is going to be pretty dramatic over

854
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:38,279
Speaker 1: the next couple of years. And I think that you know,

855
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 1: with the amount of with the amount of adoption that

856
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:46,320
Speaker 1: they've already gained, and that's putting aside. I guess the

857
00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 1: activity metrics which we do trackers on train analysts in

858
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 1: the space, which I think is a lot of it

859
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:57,920
Speaker 1: is gamed, and you're talking about the treating, yeah, wash trading,

860
00:45:58,000 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 1: but also just you know, there's activity, there's cyble, you know, attacks,

861
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:08,440
Speaker 1: and like there's tons of stuff that inflate numbers. So

862
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 1: you have to look at it sort of more holistically,

863
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:14,600
Speaker 1: but it's undeniable that you're seeing adoption and now you've

864
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 1: got basically integration with the financial system with stable coins,

865
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 1: and stable coins are going to move on blockchains. Blockchains

866
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:27,719
Speaker 1: have facilitated the need for the US government to find

867
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:29,960
Speaker 1: new buys of its debt, and so whether we like

868
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:33,799
Speaker 1: it or not, these platforms are going to facilitate a

869
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:35,720
Speaker 1: huge amount of global commerce.

870
00:46:35,840 --> 00:46:37,880
Speaker 2: Let me ask you about that. So yes, I one

871
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:40,600
Speaker 2: hundred percent agree with you. The number one stable coin

872
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:42,360
Speaker 2: and not buy a little bit, but by a lot.

873
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 2: Seventy five percent of the market share is Tether. Pollow

874
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 2: from Tether is a bitcoiner and they announced just a

875
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:51,440
Speaker 2: few weeks ago they want to move it all over

876
00:46:51,480 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 2: to the bitcoin blockchain. They're moving into RGB number one,

877
00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:58,880
Speaker 2: number two. We've seen some of the other players and

878
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 2: new entrants are building their own blockchains, so they're not

879
00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:04,919
Speaker 2: going to use Salona or a theory or Bitcoin. They're

880
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:09,200
Speaker 2: going to build their own. So it seems like it

881
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:11,719
Speaker 2: seems like the exist that the dominant player wants to

882
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:14,320
Speaker 2: move to Bitcoin not ethereum, and then the new entrants

883
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 2: want to move to their own platforms.

884
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, so is the argument, is the argument whether you

885
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:22,880
Speaker 1: should buy ethereum is one of these other platforms, or

886
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 1: is the argument a blockchain is going to increase in

887
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:26,880
Speaker 1: terms of total usage.

888
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:30,280
Speaker 2: I was more thinking about just from the treasure you standpoint,

889
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:32,239
Speaker 2: where like, how does it make sense to buy an

890
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 2: asset that's not clearly defined, has no fixed supply. That's

891
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:39,399
Speaker 2: what I was kind of trying to think. Understanding from

892
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:43,760
Speaker 2: a speculative standpoint is one thing, Creating a treasury company

893
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:46,319
Speaker 2: around it and raising money in public markets seem to

894
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:47,880
Speaker 2: be like a different animal for me.

895
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:51,759
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, I mean it's I know where you're coming from, Like,

896
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:55,440
Speaker 1: it's I think it's a changing of investment philosophies all around.

897
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:56,960
Speaker 1: So let me give you an example of what I

898
00:47:57,040 --> 00:48:00,760
Speaker 1: mean here. The Swiss National Bank, the same bank started

899
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:04,439
Speaker 1: buying Apple and tech stocks back in twenty sixteen. That

900
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:08,080
Speaker 1: was that seemed crazy, right, But they understood the debasement game,

901
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 1: and so they thought the best thing they could do

902
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:14,480
Speaker 1: with their asset, with their with their reserves was to

903
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:17,279
Speaker 1: put that into tech stocs. And that proved to be

904
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 1: an incredibly smart move worked from unfortunately not mirrored by

905
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:26,320
Speaker 1: a lot of other central banks. So I mean, where

906
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:29,720
Speaker 1: is the where is the growth happening in the global

907
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:32,160
Speaker 1: economy right now if you look at you know, the

908
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:35,400
Speaker 1: legacy financial system or the crypto economy, the crypto economy

909
00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:40,040
Speaker 1: is exploding and putting all the gaming aspects aside. Settlement

910
00:48:40,120 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 1: values on blockchains are growing at seventy eight percent compound

911
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:46,240
Speaker 1: for the last five years, and that was really before

912
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:50,479
Speaker 1: government said, hey, stable coins are okay. Now the question

913
00:48:50,520 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 1: of like whether he wants to take a investment punt

914
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:58,720
Speaker 1: on Ethereum versus Solana or versus I guess any stripees,

915
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:04,440
Speaker 1: new platform or new tether blockchain. That's more like a

916
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 1: a investment decision with which is a lot of risk

917
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 1: and therefore it becomes very tricky for these digital asset companies.

918
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:15,239
Speaker 1: And there's a lot more risk there with a platform

919
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 1: that's in a hyper competitive space where there's basically no

920
00:49:18,840 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 1: barriers to entry. It's just opened his open software that

921
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 1: anyone can fork or replicate. But there's also a thing

922
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:28,839
Speaker 1: called network effects, which are very hard to budge, and

923
00:49:28,880 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 1: so there is there's definitely network effects exhibited through you know,

924
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:37,200
Speaker 1: the top smart contract platforms. But the you know, we'll

925
00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:39,720
Speaker 1: see in five years time, what the right smart contract

926
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:43,879
Speaker 1: platform is or has been the best performer, if at all.

927
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:46,640
Speaker 1: I mean, I put bitcoin at the center of my

928
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:51,840
Speaker 1: entire investing world because it is in my eyes, and

929
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:55,040
Speaker 1: I think in the eyes of even sovereigns now it

930
00:49:55,160 --> 00:49:58,719
Speaker 1: is the emergent global reserve asset, and it is the

931
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:01,040
Speaker 1: It is the clear leader and will continue to lead.

932
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 1: But I do look at those other platforms as investment punts.

933
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:06,200
Speaker 1: But when you start looking at the digital asset companies

934
00:50:06,200 --> 00:50:10,760
Speaker 1: in that space, you can argue that the high quality

935
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:13,959
Speaker 1: ones come first and then like it starts to tail off,

936
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:17,440
Speaker 1: and then you've got added risk that bitcoin doesn't have

937
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:21,200
Speaker 1: because it is not a fix. It doesn't have the

938
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:24,759
Speaker 1: characteristics of the monetary network of bitcoin. And the other

939
00:50:24,840 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 1: thing that we don't mention, we haven't mentioned yet, is

940
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:30,960
Speaker 1: that the reason why bitcoin is not only because of

941
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:37,160
Speaker 1: its monetary properties is a sound investment with lower risk

942
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:40,200
Speaker 1: of sort of downside over the long term, is because

943
00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:43,480
Speaker 1: of the energy aspect. It is gobbling up excess energy

944
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:47,839
Speaker 1: around the world. Is now strategically important for companies that

945
00:50:47,960 --> 00:50:53,640
Speaker 1: actually understand how to drive value for their citizens that

946
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:58,239
Speaker 1: they bring bitcoin mining into their economy, and they subsidize

947
00:50:58,239 --> 00:51:00,960
Speaker 1: it and promote it because not only will it monetize

948
00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:04,319
Speaker 1: excess energy, it will drive investment in a space which

949
00:51:04,400 --> 00:51:07,759
Speaker 1: is directly linked to AI and so like that, our

950
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:10,839
Speaker 1: whole aspect just supports that network growing even faster. So

951
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:14,280
Speaker 1: is this I guess, to come back to the original point,

952
00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:18,719
Speaker 1: there is a lot more risk, a lot more uncertainty

953
00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:21,839
Speaker 1: in putting any other digital asset on the balance sheet.

954
00:51:22,360 --> 00:51:24,560
Speaker 1: But still there's an argument to be made that the

955
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:29,560
Speaker 1: underlying smart contract platform assets themselves, the ones with network effects,

956
00:51:29,600 --> 00:51:33,920
Speaker 1: will continue to outperform or you know, outperform tech stocks

957
00:51:33,920 --> 00:51:37,160
Speaker 1: for instance, maybe not Bitcoin, but should do well. And

958
00:51:37,360 --> 00:51:39,240
Speaker 1: you know, you allocate with the right sort of position

959
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:41,480
Speaker 1: size to that because of the volatility and the uncertainty.

960
00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 2: Yep. Yeah, And that's a question that I kind of

961
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 2: always come back to, you know, in regards to the

962
00:51:47,120 --> 00:51:49,839
Speaker 2: equity side of these things. Is like, as a bitcointerer

963
00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:51,600
Speaker 2: or is like, is this going to be a bitcoin?

964
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:53,919
Speaker 2: But most of the world doesn't think that way. They're

965
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:55,919
Speaker 2: just like, does it beat the S and P find under,

966
00:51:55,960 --> 00:51:58,360
Speaker 2: does it beat inflation? And so they're sort of like

967
00:51:58,400 --> 00:51:59,719
Speaker 2: building out their basket sort of a.

968
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:00,160
Speaker 3: Thing like that.

969
00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:04,239
Speaker 2: Man, There's so many other things that we could dive into,

970
00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:05,800
Speaker 2: but I think I think we're probably just going to

971
00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:09,520
Speaker 2: wrap it up right there, Jamie. But I would like

972
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 2: to do this again sooner, maybe on the next report

973
00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:12,959
Speaker 2: that you have out, will come on and talk about

974
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:14,359
Speaker 2: the report, and I wanted to get in some other

975
00:52:14,360 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 2: topics such as talking about location sovereignty, so maybe we'll

976
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:23,120
Speaker 2: table it for another talk again. Like I said, your

977
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:25,560
Speaker 2: research is amazing. Just tell everybody what kind of stuff

978
00:52:25,600 --> 00:52:26,560
Speaker 2: you do and where they can find it.

979
00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:29,480
Speaker 1: Yeh. So I'm the chief crypto analyst at Real Vision

980
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:34,160
Speaker 1: and we've got a platform which is basically pretty much

981
00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:38,760
Speaker 1: focused on all the exponential technology plays, but primarily crypto

982
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 1: and how that plays into the whole macro framework. The

983
00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:46,759
Speaker 1: business cycle analysts analysis that Ral does and Julian does

984
00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:50,399
Speaker 1: is by father the best but business cycle analysis out there.

985
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:54,640
Speaker 1: I focused, you know, strictly on macro and crypto. So

986
00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 1: if you're interested, check us out.

987
00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:56,359
Speaker 3: Yep.

988
00:52:56,400 --> 00:52:58,360
Speaker 2: We'll link to that down below, and he shares his

989
00:52:58,440 --> 00:53:00,600
Speaker 2: reports with me. I've done some YouTube videos, so just

990
00:53:00,880 --> 00:53:03,280
Speaker 2: look out for that. I always link back to that. Jamie.

991
00:53:03,440 --> 00:53:06,279
Speaker 2: Thanks so much for taking the time, appreciate it.

992
00:53:06,320 --> 00:53:07,800
Speaker 1: Thanks again, mat I love it.